Apple - unaufhaltsamer Aufstieg - wie lange noch? (Seite 800)

[hanswurst001]

Hey Leute,
habe gerade mal so den abend genutzt um mal zu erfahren ob apple eig auch in der robotik forscht ich konnte nichts drüber finden also so ein roboter wer doch mit sciherheit eine geniale werbung bez irgenwann sowie zwiengend notwenig... hat einer infos ???

[auriga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 50.850.384 von pstrube am 14.10.15 21:21:02

Die Luigis haben uns begleitet zumindest von ca 98 USD im September letzten Jahres bis in den 130er Bereich seit FEB 2015. Lagen also weitgehend richtig. Aber OK, die aktuelle Zahlendiskussion hat voll gestartet und ich bringe einstweilen einmal ein weiteres(nach Gene Munster) etwas verfeinertes statement zu Huberty et al.

It seems the debate over Apple’s (AAPL) iPhone sales continues apace today, with Morgan Stanley’s Katy Huberty seeing better-than-expected trends since the iPhone 6s officially went on sale on September 25th, while Pacific Crest Securities’s chip analyst John Vinh warns Street expectations are too high for the December quarter.

Huberty, who has an Overweight rating on shares of Apple, and who raises her price target to $162 from $155, writes that “US/China Smartphone surveys point to robust market growth and record Apple share gains.”

Huberty bases her conclusions on a survey of buying intentions of smartphone consumers, citing the factoid that “a larger number of people plan to purchase a smartphone in the next 12 months as compared to our December 2014 survey, supporting our view of 10% growth in branded smartphone units next year.”

She attributes the surge in buying intent to shorter replacement cycles:

We believe increased demand is a function of a shorter refresh cycle in the US as some installment plans allow for faster upgrades and more users plan to upgrade to Apple’s larger screen devices. As China grows as a percentage of the overall market, it also shortens the refresh cycle in light of an average 16 month life compared to 31 months in the US.

For Apple, she sees loyalty at new highs among consumers:

iPhone user loyalty is at all time highs – 93% in the US (up from 89% in December 2014) and 80% in China (up from 75% a year ago). This suggests Apple will capture the vast majority of upgrades among its user base and that the iPhone is becoming a recurring revenue business supporting the case for a higher valuation multiple longer-term.

As a result, iPhone is gaining share at the U.S.’s Big Four carriers, she thinks:

The iPhone continues to gain share at the Big 4 carriers, from 48% in March 2014 to 50% in September 2015, and 52% of postpaid subscribers planning to make the iPhone their next device. AT&T, which has had the iPhone since the first release in 2007, has the most exposure to the iPhone. Meanwhile, T-Mobile, which was the last carrier to get the iPhone, has the most opportunity to take share. Indeed, 24% of survey respondents looking to change their carrier would select T-Mobile, which compares to a current postpaid market share of 12%.

Huberty boosts her iPhone unit shipment numbers to 248 million iPhone units in fiscal 2016, up from 240 million, bringing in revenue of $253.3 billion from a prior $250.6 billion.

We raise our FY16 iPhone unit growth to 7% (from 3%) to better reflect more upgrades and expected share gains at the high end of the market, largely from Samsung (China) and LG (US). If purchase intentions fully convert over the next year, our US and China surveys point to 12% Y/Y unit growth in a more bullish scenario, reflecting share gains on top of the 10% growth we forecast for branded smartphone makers next year.

Here’s a graphic from Huberty’s survey (click on the image to see it larger):

Morgan Stanley surveys U.S. iPhone demand, October 12th, 2015.

Writes Vinh, who follows several Apple chip suppliers, such as Analog Devices (ADI) and Avago Technologies (AVGO), Street estimates for 76 million in the December-ending quarter are too high — he sees just 67 million:

While feedback from our Asia trip several weeks ago indicated no change to Q4 iPhone orders following initial “online” presales, supply chain conversations indicate Apple has lowered Q4 component orders in response to disappointing sales following the first week of launch. Feedback indicates a reduction in Q4 component orders of ~15%. As such, we see increased risk to Q4 Apple component estimates and consensus’ estimated iPhone shipments of 76 million. Our estimate currently stands at 67 million units. Additionally, our carrier surveys in North America and Western Europe indicate the launch of the iPhone 6s has been tracking below expectations. In contrast to the launch of the iPhone 6 last year, we note: (1) less than 10% of the carrier stores we surveyed have been sold out of iPhones; last year, carriers didn’t have iPhone stock on hand until November; (2) almost all carriers surveyed indicated that iPhone 6s sales were down y/y, compared to the iPhone 6; and (3) inventory levels, while lean, are already at levels not reached until two months after the launch of the iPhone 6.

Another analyst in the conversation today who’s positive is Alex Gauna, with JMP Securities, who appeared on CNBC’s Squawk Alley segment a short while ago, saying that “Apple is off to a strong start,” and that he doesn’t see Samsung Electronics (005930KS) mounting a significant challenge anytime soon.

Apple stock today is down 6 cents a $112.06.


http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2015/10/12/apple-ip…
October 12, 2015, 11:47 A.M. ET

Apple: iPhone Demand Upside, Says Morgan Stanley; Estimates Too High, Says Pac Crest

[pstrube]

Zehn Dollar mehr, zehn Dollar weniger, ist für mich aktuell bei Apple ein Auf-der-Stelle-Treten. Ich gehe wie gesagt davon aus, dass es nach den Zahlen durchaus auch noch mal kurzfristig an den 100 Dollar kratzen könnte. Wie es danch mit Apple weitergehen wird, ob das jetzt oder erst recht dann ein Schnäppchen ist oder nicht, muss dann jeder für sich selbst entscheiden ... Ich find's nur grob fahrlässig, wie hier auf teils naivste Art aktuelle Meldungen umgerechnet werden in zukünftige Kurserwartungen, aber gut, dass ist in anderen Threads zu anderen Aktien ja auch nicht anders. Teilweise lese ich von Teilnehmern hier in anderen Threads, dass sie eine Kapitalerhöhung für dasselbe halten wie einen Aktiensplot, da läuft's mir kalt den Rücken runter... Ich bin der allererste, der von sich selbst zugibt, kein Börsengenie zu sein, aber ich gehe deshalb zumindest mit der gewissen gesunden Ehrfurcht ran, die einen schützt...

[auriga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 50.747.508 von pstrube am 30.09.15 22:38:08

Schwer zu sagen wen du meinst, aber das ist ja auch mehr eine marginale Polemik von dir die wir nicht überbewerten sollten IMO. Ich hatte allerdings vor Kurzem nicht den Eindruck dass du dieses ironisch gemeint hättest.

Zitat von pstrube: "Aber die 120 Dollar sehen wir erst wieder 2017 wenn die Pläne zum Apple Auto konkret werden."

Die 120 Dollar könnten wir meiner Meinung nach eventuell schon noch mal im Laufe des nächsten Monats sehen. Aber dann zu den Quartalszahlen / dem Ausblick wird's knallen. Holla, die Waldfee - wird DAS knallen.

Richtung Zahlen gibt es von den Instituten sowohl positive als auch negative Aussagen..Munster(Piper J.) Huberty(Morgan Stanley) und Siva(Citi) den ich in hervorragender Erinnerung habe in seinen statements durch die Bank sind auf jeden Fall auf Jahressicht positiv eingestellt zu Apple. Könnte ich eventuell dezidieren.--Wir sollten jetzt erst mal genauer schauen was sich in >diesen Zahlen schon positiv niederschlagen könnte. Sind ja noch paar Tage Zeit. Munster sieht allen Ernstes auch für die Oktober-Zahlen sehr positives Potential.--Also lässt sich dann verfeinern..und...Gesamtmarkt kucken!!

[pstrube]

Wüßte nicht, wann ich mit meinem reservierten Ausblick zu Apple arg danebengelegen hätte - im Gegensatz zu Leuten, die hier immer die Luigis tanzen lassen, wenn Apple mal zwei Prozent im Plus schließt und stumm bleiben, wenn der Kurs es vor- und nachher so viel mehr abtaucht, dass wir unterm Strich trotzdem immer tiefer sinken ...

[hanswurst001]

So da ist er wieder festgenagelt

[pstrube]

LOL, jetzt wird's hier aber selbst für Gilbertus-Verhältnisse echt dünne mit den tollen "Meldungen" zum Hochjubeln...

Bis zu den Quartalszahlen wird nicht viel gehen, denke ich, und direkt danach erst mal noch mal schön circa 10 Prozent abwärts auf unter 100 Dollar. Danach kann man dann entscheiden, ob die überirdische Apple-Erfolgsstory zumindest noch lang genug weitergeht, um noch kurz- bis mittelfristig Kasse zu machen. Langfristig, meiner Meinung nach, zum jetzigen Zeitpunkt nix mehr zum Kaufen und Liegenlassen, und ich gehöre beileibe nicht zu denen, die das schon seit Jahren faseln, im Gegenteil.

[Gilbertus]

Apple: iPad Pro

Nicht schlecht, sondern extravagant, Klasse !;

http://www.apple.com/de/ipad-pro/



So wie einem das Licht nicht ohne die Dunkelheit bewusst würde,
so gibt es keine Situation,
in der nicht etwas POSITIVES zu entdecken wäre.

Frei nach I Ging

[auriga]

Macs gut im Rennen so bei einschlägigen Firmen aber es fehlt an adäquatem Virenschutz wie etwa bei Windows. Die Attacken häufen sich. Das wirft einen Schatten auf den guten Lauf der Macs.—Die einschlägigen Virenschutz-Firmen sind zu wenig auf OS X eingestellt.

[NOrdendFelix]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 50.849.280 von hanswurst001 am 14.10.15 18:40:39

Jean Marc Quinet/Zuma Press
Researchers on Wednesday said they have discovered a jump this year in malicious software impacting Apple Inc.AAPL -1.20%’s OS X operating system. As malware and targeted attacks increase against Macs, some corporations could become vulnerable because there’s a lack of support for the operating system by computer security vendors.

The report conducted by security vendor Bit9 + Carbon Black analyzed 1,400 unique OS X malware samples during a 10-week period between June and August 2015. It found that five times more OS X malware appeared in 2015 than the previous five years combined. Mac users have mostly been immune to malware relative to Windows Corp. users but that’s starting to change. The researchers expect Mac OS X malware attacks to accelerate in coming months in part because the growing popularity of Apple computers in the workplace is making them a bigger target for hackers.

To be sure, Bit9 + Carbon Black sells security software to protect Macs, and the results work very much in its favor. But reports from other security firms such as Kaspersky Lab and Intel Corp.’s McAfee Labs have also detailed a rise in malicious software targeting Mac OS X over the last year.

Apple is also gaining in market share, in a market where most computer vendors are seeing declines. In the third quarter of 2015, Apple grew worldwide market share 1.5% over the previous year, more than any other computer maker, according to a report by Gartner, Inc. Apple has garnered 7.6% of the personal computer market share worldwide and 14.8% in the U.S. While it’s not known exactly what percent of market share Apple has in the enterprise, the company has experienced some big wins lately.

International Business Machine Corp.IBM +0.48%’s CIO Jeff Smith expects to manage 50,000 MacBooks alone, a number he has told Apple eventually might grow to 200,000, wrote the WSJ’s Robert McMillan in August. IBM has partnered with Apple to help other companies adopt Macs. Some of IBM’s services include help managing Mac OS X configuration updates for security, IBM said in August.

One company that replaced many of its Windows PCs with MacBooks in recent years took security precautions when installing the devices including virus protection. The CIO, who asked not to be identified because he didn’t want his company to become a target, told CIO Journal that the company had not seen an increase in Mac OS-related viruses in its network. Still, he said it did stand to reason that companies would increasingly face a problem with malicious software targeting the Mac OS because of the continued and increased adoption of Apple machines in mainstream enterprise environments. There’s also a false sense of security that the Mac operating system is not vulnerable to malicious software, he said.

Still other companies such as Facebook Inc. have noted the difficulty of finding the appropriate enterprise security software to manage MacBooks. In July, the social network said it had about 16,000 Mac laptops and a much smaller number of Windows machines. “We live in a Windows-centric world,” said Ted Reed, a security engineer at Facebook. On the Windows side, it’s fairly easy to buy a security network appliance and install it but it was a problem for Mac OS X, he said, speaking at the Mac IT conference. Ultimately, Facebook created its own security software that it open-sourced, he said.

The lack of OS X support from many endpoint security vendors, is becoming a strategic vulnerability for companies with large OS X deployments, according to the Bit9 + Carbon Black report. In addition, many enterprises have failed to implement the same types of safeguards and controls on MacBooks and Mac desktops that they have for Windows machines. The result is a security gap that’s leaving more companies exposed and unable to identify and stop infections, researchers said.

Write to [e-mail]
http://blogs.wsj.com/cio/2015/10/14/apples-enterprise-wins-s…
Apple’s Enterprise Wins Shadowed by Uptick in Mac Malware: Researchers
1:06 pm ET--Oct 14, 2015--Security