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Catch Baidu while you can
China's online ad market is projected to see major growth by 2014, and the online shopping market is just getting started.
By Jim J. Jubak on Mon, Feb 7, 2011 4:25 PM
Jim JubakDoing some catch-up on this stock. I added Baidu (BIDU) to the Jubak Picks 50 long-term portfolio on Jan. 18, but this is the first time I've had an opportunity to explain why in detail or to actually add it to the portfolio. I’ll be working on explaining the other sells and buys announced on Jan. 18 over the next week or so.
It was a great quarter for Baidu, and I certainly like the way the operator of China’s most popular search engine has made hay from Google's (GOOG) problems in China. Looking forward, I think growth will continue at the current torrid pace but margins are likely to fall as Baidu expands into new markets and as competitors try to take market share in search.
For the fourth quarter, announced Jan. 31, Baidu reported that sales increased 94% (to 2.45 billion yuan or $372 million) from the fourth quarter of 2009. Net income more than doubled to 1.16 billion yuan ($176 million) from 428 million yuan in the fourth quarter of 2009.
Post continues after video:
For the first quarter of 2011, Baidu projected that revenue would range from 2.38 billion to 2.45 billion. That would be essentially flat with fourth-quarter revenue. But the forecast is an increase from the 2.3 billion yuan consensus among the analysts who follow the company, and year-to-year growth would climb to 84.5% from the first quarter of 2010. That would be enough to keep the company’s record of accelerating growth intact since year-to-year growth in the first quarter of 2010 was just 59.6% from the first quarter of 2009.
Baidu’s market share in search grew to 75.5% from 73% in the third quarter of 2010. Google’s share dropped to 19.6% from 21.6%, according to Analysys International. Google moved its Chinese search business offshore in 2010 to avoid the Chinese government’s Internet censorship efforts.
The company did see attrition in the number of small clients, which led to a slowdown in the sequential growth of active accounts to just 1.5% from the third quarter. The company said that much of this attrition was a result of the complexity of Baidu’s new Phoenix Nest advertising platform.
This year looks to be an "interesting" one for Baidu. The company will continue to add
The online ad market is projected to grow from an estimated $3.7 billion in 2010 to $9.5 billion by 2014.
And the online shopping market is just getting rolling. The number of Chinese consumers who had bought online rose to 33% from 28% in the last six months, but the 33% of Chinese who shop online is still only about half the global average.
It’s the investments to exploit and defend those opportunities that will make a dent in Baidu’s margins in 2011. The company is moving into new businesses, including online video, and is looking to add more social networking services and to increase its market share in e-commerce. Baidu’s effort in social networking will put the company into competition with Tencent Holdings (TCEHY), China’s largest Internet company. In e-commerce Baidu will be going up against Alibaba, the leading local e-commerce company and a raft of new competitors in the space.
Competitors are also looking to grab share in the search space from Baidu. New search efforts such as Soso from Tencent, Sogoiu from Sohu, and Etao from Taobao will likely force Baidu to spend more on acquiring search traffic.
The stock is up 18% since I gave it a thumbs-up "buy" on Dec. 21. If you hold, I’d continue to hold. If you don’t yet own the shares, I’d look for a dip to give you a buying opportunity like that in December. But it’s my belief in the long-term Internet growth trend in China that has made me add Baidu to the long-term Jubak Picks 50 portfolio.
At the time of this writing, Jim Jubak didn't own shares of any companies mentioned in this post in personal portfolios. The mutual fund he manages, Jubak Global Equity Fund (JUBAX), may or may not own positions in any stock mentioned. The fund did own shares of Baidu as of the end of December. For a full list of the stocks in the fund as of the end of the most recent quarter, see the fund's portfolio here.
More from MoneyShow.com:
China's online ad market is projected to see major growth by 2014, and the online shopping market is just getting started.
By Jim J. Jubak on Mon, Feb 7, 2011 4:25 PM
Jim JubakDoing some catch-up on this stock. I added Baidu (BIDU) to the Jubak Picks 50 long-term portfolio on Jan. 18, but this is the first time I've had an opportunity to explain why in detail or to actually add it to the portfolio. I’ll be working on explaining the other sells and buys announced on Jan. 18 over the next week or so.
It was a great quarter for Baidu, and I certainly like the way the operator of China’s most popular search engine has made hay from Google's (GOOG) problems in China. Looking forward, I think growth will continue at the current torrid pace but margins are likely to fall as Baidu expands into new markets and as competitors try to take market share in search.
For the fourth quarter, announced Jan. 31, Baidu reported that sales increased 94% (to 2.45 billion yuan or $372 million) from the fourth quarter of 2009. Net income more than doubled to 1.16 billion yuan ($176 million) from 428 million yuan in the fourth quarter of 2009.
Post continues after video:
For the first quarter of 2011, Baidu projected that revenue would range from 2.38 billion to 2.45 billion. That would be essentially flat with fourth-quarter revenue. But the forecast is an increase from the 2.3 billion yuan consensus among the analysts who follow the company, and year-to-year growth would climb to 84.5% from the first quarter of 2010. That would be enough to keep the company’s record of accelerating growth intact since year-to-year growth in the first quarter of 2010 was just 59.6% from the first quarter of 2009.
Baidu’s market share in search grew to 75.5% from 73% in the third quarter of 2010. Google’s share dropped to 19.6% from 21.6%, according to Analysys International. Google moved its Chinese search business offshore in 2010 to avoid the Chinese government’s Internet censorship efforts.
The company did see attrition in the number of small clients, which led to a slowdown in the sequential growth of active accounts to just 1.5% from the third quarter. The company said that much of this attrition was a result of the complexity of Baidu’s new Phoenix Nest advertising platform.
This year looks to be an "interesting" one for Baidu. The company will continue to add
The online ad market is projected to grow from an estimated $3.7 billion in 2010 to $9.5 billion by 2014.
And the online shopping market is just getting rolling. The number of Chinese consumers who had bought online rose to 33% from 28% in the last six months, but the 33% of Chinese who shop online is still only about half the global average.
It’s the investments to exploit and defend those opportunities that will make a dent in Baidu’s margins in 2011. The company is moving into new businesses, including online video, and is looking to add more social networking services and to increase its market share in e-commerce. Baidu’s effort in social networking will put the company into competition with Tencent Holdings (TCEHY), China’s largest Internet company. In e-commerce Baidu will be going up against Alibaba, the leading local e-commerce company and a raft of new competitors in the space.
Competitors are also looking to grab share in the search space from Baidu. New search efforts such as Soso from Tencent, Sogoiu from Sohu, and Etao from Taobao will likely force Baidu to spend more on acquiring search traffic.
The stock is up 18% since I gave it a thumbs-up "buy" on Dec. 21. If you hold, I’d continue to hold. If you don’t yet own the shares, I’d look for a dip to give you a buying opportunity like that in December. But it’s my belief in the long-term Internet growth trend in China that has made me add Baidu to the long-term Jubak Picks 50 portfolio.
At the time of this writing, Jim Jubak didn't own shares of any companies mentioned in this post in personal portfolios. The mutual fund he manages, Jubak Global Equity Fund (JUBAX), may or may not own positions in any stock mentioned. The fund did own shares of Baidu as of the end of December. For a full list of the stocks in the fund as of the end of the most recent quarter, see the fund's portfolio here.
More from MoneyShow.com:
New York 07.02.2011 (www.emfis.com) Anfang Februar hatte der chinesische Suchmaschinenprimus Baidu Inc. mitgeteilt, dass sich der Nettogewinn im vierten Quartal 2010 mehr als verdoppelt hatte. Mit den veröffentlichten Ergebnissen hatte Baidu die Erwartungen der Analysten übertroffen.
In der vergangenen Woche erhielt die Aktie positive Bewertungen. So bestätigte JP Morgan seine Einstufung „Overweight“ und hob sein bisheriges Kursziel von 120 auf 125 US Dollar an.
Von der Deutschen Bank gab es eine Hochstufung. Hatte die Bank bisher ein Halten empfohlen, rät sie jetzt zum Kauf der Baidu- Aktie. Gleichzeitig setzte sie ihr Kursziel von 100 auf 139 US Dollar nach oben.
Am vergangenen Freitag verließ die Aktie den Handel an der US- Börse mit einem leichten Verlust von 0,69 Prozent auf 117,68 US Dollar.
Baidu ist Teil des CHINA INTERNET SOLACTIVE PERFORMANCE INDEX ZERTIFIKAT mit der WKN DB2CNT
Wertpapiere des Artikels:
Baidu Sp ADR-A
In der vergangenen Woche erhielt die Aktie positive Bewertungen. So bestätigte JP Morgan seine Einstufung „Overweight“ und hob sein bisheriges Kursziel von 120 auf 125 US Dollar an.
Von der Deutschen Bank gab es eine Hochstufung. Hatte die Bank bisher ein Halten empfohlen, rät sie jetzt zum Kauf der Baidu- Aktie. Gleichzeitig setzte sie ihr Kursziel von 100 auf 139 US Dollar nach oben.
Am vergangenen Freitag verließ die Aktie den Handel an der US- Börse mit einem leichten Verlust von 0,69 Prozent auf 117,68 US Dollar.
Baidu ist Teil des CHINA INTERNET SOLACTIVE PERFORMANCE INDEX ZERTIFIKAT mit der WKN DB2CNT
Wertpapiere des Artikels:
Baidu Sp ADR-A
Strong Top-Line Growth Boosts 4Q Results for Baidu, but We Think Stock Is Overvalued
by Dan Su | 02 Feb 11
Search engine Baidu BIDU delivered strong results in the fourth quarter on the back of impressive top-line growth and better leverage of sales and marketing expenses. With a dominant share in China's fast-growing search advertising market, Baidu has a long runway of growth ahead. However, we think the stock is richly valued, as the current market price implies forward price/earnings of 55 times, enterprise value/EBITDA of 41 times, and a free cash flow yield of 1.8%. We are maintaining our fair value estimate and think the stock does not currently offer attractive long-term returns.
Baidu continued its impressive growth trajectory in the fourth quarter, almost doubling revenue year over year to CNY 2.45 billion, thanks to a 24% increase in the number of paying customers and a 56% increase in average spending per account from the year-ago quarter. However, sequential growth in the number of active accounts was up only 1.5%, compared with 7% in the third quarter and 15% in the second quarter. Management admitted that attrition of small clients was high, partly because of the complexity of the new Phoenix Nest Platform. We suspect another important reason is that as more advertisers flock to Baidu and drive up the bidding price for keywords, the advertising return on investment for many smaller firms is no longer attractive. Although Baidu plans to launch a large-scale nationwide marketing campaign in the first quarter to acquire more customers and promises to work on client-retention programs, we think it will become increasingly difficult for the firm to sustain the rapid top-line growth it has posted over the past several quarters.
True to its promise of more research investment as it embarks on various new initiatives, including online video, social networking, box computing, and business-to-consumer e-commerce, Baidu raised research and development spending but otherwise controlled expense lines tightly. Operating margins were 52% in the fourth quarter, flat with 52.4% in the last quarter but up from 36.7% a year ago. Full-year revenue grew 78% to CNY 7.9 billion, while net profits expanded a staggering 137% on a significant drop in traffic acquisition cost as a percentage of total sales and better leverage of marketing expenses.
With no major challenger in sight, we think Baidu is likely to deliver strong growth again in 2011. Management guidance for the first quarter implied at least 84.5% year-over-year revenue growth, compared with 59.6% growth in the first quarter of 2010. However, we think several tailwinds that drove margin expansion in the past year may reverse in the coming year. Traffic acquisition costs as a percentage of sales fell to 9.6% in 2010, a sharp decline from 15.7% in 2009 and below the 12.4% average since 2005. We think partner sites that used to work with Baidu may gain more bargaining power in 2011 as other search businesses, notably Etao from Taobao, Soso from Tencent, and Sogou from Sohu SOHU , look to expand their market share and bid up the price for search traffic. We would not be surprised to see traffic acquisition costs as a percentage of revenue trend back up in 2011 for Baidu. Additionally, given the customer-retention issues involving smaller firms and lackluster growth in new customer acquisition in the fourth quarter, we believe Baidu will invest aggressively in marketing campaigns and in adding salespeople in the coming year to maintain rapid growth and solidify its leading position in the market. Profitability is likely to take a dent as a result, in our view.
by Dan Su | 02 Feb 11
Search engine Baidu BIDU delivered strong results in the fourth quarter on the back of impressive top-line growth and better leverage of sales and marketing expenses. With a dominant share in China's fast-growing search advertising market, Baidu has a long runway of growth ahead. However, we think the stock is richly valued, as the current market price implies forward price/earnings of 55 times, enterprise value/EBITDA of 41 times, and a free cash flow yield of 1.8%. We are maintaining our fair value estimate and think the stock does not currently offer attractive long-term returns.
Baidu continued its impressive growth trajectory in the fourth quarter, almost doubling revenue year over year to CNY 2.45 billion, thanks to a 24% increase in the number of paying customers and a 56% increase in average spending per account from the year-ago quarter. However, sequential growth in the number of active accounts was up only 1.5%, compared with 7% in the third quarter and 15% in the second quarter. Management admitted that attrition of small clients was high, partly because of the complexity of the new Phoenix Nest Platform. We suspect another important reason is that as more advertisers flock to Baidu and drive up the bidding price for keywords, the advertising return on investment for many smaller firms is no longer attractive. Although Baidu plans to launch a large-scale nationwide marketing campaign in the first quarter to acquire more customers and promises to work on client-retention programs, we think it will become increasingly difficult for the firm to sustain the rapid top-line growth it has posted over the past several quarters.
True to its promise of more research investment as it embarks on various new initiatives, including online video, social networking, box computing, and business-to-consumer e-commerce, Baidu raised research and development spending but otherwise controlled expense lines tightly. Operating margins were 52% in the fourth quarter, flat with 52.4% in the last quarter but up from 36.7% a year ago. Full-year revenue grew 78% to CNY 7.9 billion, while net profits expanded a staggering 137% on a significant drop in traffic acquisition cost as a percentage of total sales and better leverage of marketing expenses.
With no major challenger in sight, we think Baidu is likely to deliver strong growth again in 2011. Management guidance for the first quarter implied at least 84.5% year-over-year revenue growth, compared with 59.6% growth in the first quarter of 2010. However, we think several tailwinds that drove margin expansion in the past year may reverse in the coming year. Traffic acquisition costs as a percentage of sales fell to 9.6% in 2010, a sharp decline from 15.7% in 2009 and below the 12.4% average since 2005. We think partner sites that used to work with Baidu may gain more bargaining power in 2011 as other search businesses, notably Etao from Taobao, Soso from Tencent, and Sogou from Sohu SOHU , look to expand their market share and bid up the price for search traffic. We would not be surprised to see traffic acquisition costs as a percentage of revenue trend back up in 2011 for Baidu. Additionally, given the customer-retention issues involving smaller firms and lackluster growth in new customer acquisition in the fourth quarter, we believe Baidu will invest aggressively in marketing campaigns and in adding salespeople in the coming year to maintain rapid growth and solidify its leading position in the market. Profitability is likely to take a dent as a result, in our view.
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 40.961.343 von mann337 am 01.02.11 15:26:54... hast wohl Sorge ob des Datums 11.11. und fürchtest, daß ich die Pappenase aufhatte
und vom Weingeist umnebelt war?
Nee, nee, ich war im Vollbesitz meiner geistigen Kräfte und die Sache ist ja auch durch
den Beitrag Nr. 584 vom 11.11.2010 dokumentiert.
Aber ich finde es immer wieder erstaunlich, wie wenig Private hier investiert zu sein
scheinen.
In etlichen anderen Threads gibt es 20.000 Beiträge und die Titel bewegen sich kaum vom
Fleck, oder aber in die falsche Richtung. Aber vielleicht gibt es doch viel Investierte
und sie genießen und schweigen ob des steigenden Depotwertes.
Gruß
Karlll
und vom Weingeist umnebelt war?
Nee, nee, ich war im Vollbesitz meiner geistigen Kräfte und die Sache ist ja auch durch
den Beitrag Nr. 584 vom 11.11.2010 dokumentiert.
Aber ich finde es immer wieder erstaunlich, wie wenig Private hier investiert zu sein
scheinen.
In etlichen anderen Threads gibt es 20.000 Beiträge und die Titel bewegen sich kaum vom
Fleck, oder aber in die falsche Richtung. Aber vielleicht gibt es doch viel Investierte
und sie genießen und schweigen ob des steigenden Depotwertes.
Gruß
Karlll
das ist ne Cachmaschiene,
denkst noch an unseren Deal
denkst noch an unseren Deal
Trading Spotlight
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 40.959.222 von mann337 am 01.02.11 10:41:52sieht mal so aus, mann, als sollte es weitergehen.
-weiter gute Zahlen, zudem geplanter Einstieg in social Networking und evtl. Qiyi.com an
die Börse.
Ausblick für das 1. Quartal auch besser, als Analystenkonsens. Passt schon alles.
Kein Mensch konnte erwarten, daß Baidu in diesem Jahr wieder soviel zulegt wie im letzten.
Der Einmaleffekt, der Baidu durch den Rückzug von Google zugeflossen war läuft schließlich
irgendwann aus.
Gruß Karlll
-weiter gute Zahlen, zudem geplanter Einstieg in social Networking und evtl. Qiyi.com an
die Börse.
Ausblick für das 1. Quartal auch besser, als Analystenkonsens. Passt schon alles.
Kein Mensch konnte erwarten, daß Baidu in diesem Jahr wieder soviel zulegt wie im letzten.
Der Einmaleffekt, der Baidu durch den Rückzug von Google zugeflossen war läuft schließlich
irgendwann aus.
Gruß Karlll
Baidu festigt seine Marktposition in China
Suchmaschine verdreifacht Gewinn
01.02.2011 10:44 skr
Baidu bringt Quartalsbericht
Wenn zwei sich streiten, freut sich der Dritte: Während Google in China mit den Behörden im Clinch liegt, steigen bei der chinesischen Suchmaschine Baidu Gewinn- und Umsatzzahlen für das vierte Quartal 2010.
Im Schlussquartal 2010 verzeichnete Baidu einen Umsatz von 371,3 Millionen US-Dollar. Das sind 94,4 Prozent mehr als im vierten Quartal 2009. Beim Gewinn gab es noch erfreulichere Zahlen für das Unternehmen: Im vierten Quartal flossen 175,9 Millionen US-Dollar in die Kassen des Suchmaschinenunternehmens und damit fast drei Mal so viel wie im Vorjahresquartal (62,7 Millionen US-Dollar).
Auch im Jahresvergleich schloss Baidu 2010 gut ab: Im Vergleich zum Vorjahr stieg der Umsatz hier um 78 Prozent auf rund 1,2 Milliarden US-Dollar. Der Gewinn stieg um 137,4 Prozent auf 543,1 Millionen US-Dollar.
In Zukunft wolle das Unternehmen seine Suchdienste um andere Onlineaktivitäten wie E-Commerce und Social Networking erweitern, sagte Baidu-CEO Robin Li. Für das jetzt laufende, erste Quartal 2011 erwartet Baidu einen Umsatz von mindestens 360,6 Millionen US-Dollar.
Suchmaschine verdreifacht Gewinn
01.02.2011 10:44 skr
Baidu bringt Quartalsbericht
Wenn zwei sich streiten, freut sich der Dritte: Während Google in China mit den Behörden im Clinch liegt, steigen bei der chinesischen Suchmaschine Baidu Gewinn- und Umsatzzahlen für das vierte Quartal 2010.
Im Schlussquartal 2010 verzeichnete Baidu einen Umsatz von 371,3 Millionen US-Dollar. Das sind 94,4 Prozent mehr als im vierten Quartal 2009. Beim Gewinn gab es noch erfreulichere Zahlen für das Unternehmen: Im vierten Quartal flossen 175,9 Millionen US-Dollar in die Kassen des Suchmaschinenunternehmens und damit fast drei Mal so viel wie im Vorjahresquartal (62,7 Millionen US-Dollar).
Auch im Jahresvergleich schloss Baidu 2010 gut ab: Im Vergleich zum Vorjahr stieg der Umsatz hier um 78 Prozent auf rund 1,2 Milliarden US-Dollar. Der Gewinn stieg um 137,4 Prozent auf 543,1 Millionen US-Dollar.
In Zukunft wolle das Unternehmen seine Suchdienste um andere Onlineaktivitäten wie E-Commerce und Social Networking erweitern, sagte Baidu-CEO Robin Li. Für das jetzt laufende, erste Quartal 2011 erwartet Baidu einen Umsatz von mindestens 360,6 Millionen US-Dollar.
jetzt geht die nächste Rally los
Baidu, Marktführer für Internetsuche in China, verdoppelt seinen Profit und will in Social Networking einsteigen.
(1.2.2011, 9:45) Baidu gab heute bekannt, dass es seinen Profit im Q4 2010 auf 176 Millionen Dollar mehr als verdoppelt hat. Baidu hat im vergangen Jahr Google klar hinter sich gelassen, die nur mehr einen Marktanteil von 19,6% haben, während Baidu bereits auf 75,5% kommt.
Dank der hohen Profitabilität des Unternehmens plant Baidu nun auch in Social Networking einzusteigen. Dieser Markt wird in China von Tencent kontrolliert, die weit über 600 Millionen User haben.
Baidu kontrolliert auch Qiyi.com, ein Online Video Service mit bereits mehr als 100 Millionen Kunden. Ein separates Börselisting dieses Unternehmens wird derzeit geprüft. Baidu ist unter anderem in der Nasdaq gelistet.
( pfm )
(1.2.2011, 9:45) Baidu gab heute bekannt, dass es seinen Profit im Q4 2010 auf 176 Millionen Dollar mehr als verdoppelt hat. Baidu hat im vergangen Jahr Google klar hinter sich gelassen, die nur mehr einen Marktanteil von 19,6% haben, während Baidu bereits auf 75,5% kommt.
Dank der hohen Profitabilität des Unternehmens plant Baidu nun auch in Social Networking einzusteigen. Dieser Markt wird in China von Tencent kontrolliert, die weit über 600 Millionen User haben.
Baidu kontrolliert auch Qiyi.com, ein Online Video Service mit bereits mehr als 100 Millionen Kunden. Ein separates Börselisting dieses Unternehmens wird derzeit geprüft. Baidu ist unter anderem in der Nasdaq gelistet.
( pfm )
01.02.2011 | 07:02
Chinesischer Google-Rivale Baidu steigert Gewinn kräftig
Der chinesische Internet-Dienstleister und Google-Rivale Baidu hat seinen Gewinn im vierten Quartal kräftig gesteigert. Eine starke Zunahme bei den Werbeausgaben der Kunden habe die Geschäfte angetrieben, teilte das Unternehmen am Montag mit. Der Überschuss stieg auf 175,9 Millionen Dollar von 62,7 Millionen Dollar im gleichen Vorjahreszeitraum. Der Umsatz kletterte auf 371,3 Millionen Dollar von 184,7 Millionen Dollar. Beide Kennziffern lagen über den Erwartungen von Analysten.
Die an der Nasdaq notierten Baidu-Aktien sprangen im nachbörslichen Handel um 7,5 Prozent auf 116,9 Dollar.
(APA/Reuters)
Chinesischer Google-Rivale Baidu steigert Gewinn kräftig
Der chinesische Internet-Dienstleister und Google-Rivale Baidu hat seinen Gewinn im vierten Quartal kräftig gesteigert. Eine starke Zunahme bei den Werbeausgaben der Kunden habe die Geschäfte angetrieben, teilte das Unternehmen am Montag mit. Der Überschuss stieg auf 175,9 Millionen Dollar von 62,7 Millionen Dollar im gleichen Vorjahreszeitraum. Der Umsatz kletterte auf 371,3 Millionen Dollar von 184,7 Millionen Dollar. Beide Kennziffern lagen über den Erwartungen von Analysten.
Die an der Nasdaq notierten Baidu-Aktien sprangen im nachbörslichen Handel um 7,5 Prozent auf 116,9 Dollar.
(APA/Reuters)
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