Netflix Inc. die Zukunft? - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[dicki31785]

Habe keine Thread dazu gefunden...als erstes mal basic information:

Netflix, Inc. provides online movie rental subion services in the United States. It provides its subscribers access to a library of movie, television, and other filmed entertainment titles on digital versatile disc (DVD). As of December 31, 2007, the company served approximately 7.5 million subscribers with a library of approximately 90,000 movie, television, and other filmed entertainment titles on DVD. Netflix, Inc. was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Los Gatos, California.

[dicki31785]

Die Aktie wurde gestern abgestraft nach "lower than expected Net Income Guidance"...Aber dafuer ist Revenue nach oben und die Kundenzahl expectation ist auch angehoben worden....die niedrigere Net Income guidance ist zurueckzufuehren auf hoehere kosten...zu den Q Zahlen, und mehr Basic Information, von gestern ein paar artikel:

http://www.businessweek.com/technology/content/apr2008/tc200…

http://eastbay.bizjournals.com/eastbay/stories/2008/04/21/da…

http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2008/04/22/coming-attraction…

[dicki31785]

Nach den Kursverlust von 25% ist die Aktie ganz oben auf meiner Watchlist...Man munkelt das Netflix bald auf allen XBOX 360 zu haben ist durch ein software update und somit ein riesigen Sprung machen koennte da die Kundenzahl sich, nach schaetzungen, verdoppeln koennte...Falls das der Fall sein sollte könnte dies die Netflix Aktie regelrecht beflügeln...mfg CW

[dicki31785]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.950.290 von dicki31785 am 23.04.08 11:48:03

Auf der anderen Seite gibt es im Internet immer noch viele anbieter die filme bzw. serien umsonst anbieten. Das hat aber, bis jetzt, Netflix nicht vom schnellen wachstum abgehalten...und auch noch ein artikel zur möglichen kooperation mit Microsoft...

http://www.forbes.com/2008/04/22/netflix-digital-movies-tech…

[dicki31785]

Jetzt kommt erstmal die Zeit der Downgrades und der Kurs wird darunter kurzfrisitg leiden...aber danach je nachdem wie starck sie noch abgestraft werden koennte sich die Aktie zu einem "buy" entwickeln...Hier paar analysten kommentare nach Q1 Zahlen(falls interesse)

http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/providerarticle.as…

http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2008/04/22/netflix-…

[098cba]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.950.142 von dicki31785 am 23.04.08 11:32:47

Bin davon überzeugt, dass die Videoverleihbuden - egal welcher Ausprägung - inzwischen ausgedient haben.

Breitband ist fast überall verfügbar.

Warum also irgendwo hinlatschen oder sich CDs oder DVDs (oder demnächst RAM?) schicken lassen, wenn du per Klick direkt auf die Klamotten zugreifen kannst?

[dicki31785]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.950.574 von 098cba am 23.04.08 12:12:35

Also ich glaube da hast du was missverstanden o. ich...du kannst dir einfach die filme aus dem internet ziehen bzw streamen oder dir zuschicken lassen...

der grossteil des potenzials, was du schon richtig erkannt hast falls wir uns nicht falsch verstehen, liegt dadrin das die breite masse in der zukunft (zumindest in amerika) sich die ganzen filme einfach aus dem internet ziehen wie du schon angesprochen hast per mausklick ,zu preiswerten kosten, wird und Netflix bereitet sich auf die Zukunft mit Investitionen vor...was natuerlich im moment die kosten steigen laesst..weiss nicht ob das deine frage beantwortet hat?!?mfg CW

[dicki31785]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.950.699 von dicki31785 am 23.04.08 12:25:23

Das kommt von NetFlix Investor relation:

Netflix growth strategies.

Achieve overall movie rental leadership by:

* Continuing to innovate and enhance the consumer experience.
* Focusing on subscriber growth in order to
– Maintain market leadership
– Realize economies of scale
* Leading the expansion of online video rental by offering our subscribers both mail delivery and a continuously improving online video option.

[dicki31785]

Ein kleiner technischer rebound gestern schaun wir mal wie es weiter laueft...allzu viel interesse scheint ja nicht aufzukommen....mfg CW

[PearlHaber]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.950.142 von dicki31785 am 23.04.08 11:32:47

Es gab da wohl auch mal eine Begeisterung für Gameznflix, aber alles höchst unseriös.

Aber Netflix könnte tatsächlich ein Burner werden. In Deutschland gibt es dass doch jetzt auch vermehrt, wenn ich mich recht erinnere?

Gruß Pearl

[dicki31785]

Ich kenn mich mit gameznflix nicht aus...und muss noch viel ueber netflix lernen da ich mich erst einige tage mit der aktie beschaeftige....aber was ich sehr positiv sehe ist die schon jetzt breite kundenzahl...das breite sortiement an filmen (was natuerlich auch zu hoeheren kosten fuehrt)...investitionen in die zukunft...also praktisch eine umstellung von versenden der filme auf per mausklick bestellungen(streamen der filme)...die moegliche kooperation zwischen msft und nflx....und natuerlich auch das die sehr hohen P/E's abgebaut worden und auf einmal ertraeglich erscheinen....

Deutschland ist noch nicht so recht im internet zeitalter angekommen...also natuerlich haben viele internet usw(im vergleich zur usa aber prozentual gesehen aber immer noch weniger)...aber die meisten menschen verhalten sich immer noch sehr skeptisch dem gegenueber(online sachen kaufen usw.) also sehr viel potenzial auch hier gegeben...ich kenne keinen deutschen anbieter...die telekom startet jetzt einen service ala TiVO(gucken wann mal aber wie genau das funktioniert bin ich mir auch im unklaren drueber) aber kaempft mit kosten usw...muss man mal abwarten...jegliche informationen zu diesem thema sind mehr als erwuenscht...mfg CW

[dicki31785]

Naja anstatt den thread aufzumachen haette ich mir lieber ein position ins depot legen sollen....plus 10% die letzten 2 tage...mfg CW

[entombed1966]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.972.072 von dicki31785 am 25.04.08 13:16:59

Hast Du schon gekauft? Ich habe mir ein paar Stückies ins "Orderbuch" getan, mal sehen ob und wann ich bedient werde.

[dicki31785]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.983.525 von entombed1966 am 28.04.08 11:42:13

Nein...wie gesagt habe mich erstmal informiert und netflix steht ganz oben auf meiner watch list...aber das unternehmen ist sehr konjunktur abhaengig und nur in den usa taetig....

also jedes anzeichen einer schlimmeren krise, als bislang erwartet, wird als erstes solch unternehmen wie netflix treffen...ausserdem koennen viele dieser kauefe auf dem weg von 30 bis 33 short sellers gewesen sein(oder eben auch nicht)...also ich guck mit das erstmal an mfg und viel erfolg CW

[dicki31785]

Strategy & Innovation
Is Blockbuster Back?
Scott D. Anthony 05.03.08, 1:38 PM ET

Related Quotes
AMZN 77.31 - 2.05
BBI 2.74 - 0.08
NFLX 31.10 + 0.10
WMT 57.50 - 0.57

In March, Blockbuster reported that it had net income of close to $40 million in the fourth quarter of 2007, its first profitable quarter of 2007, and a surge of close to 400% over its income in the fourth quarter of 2006. CNBC guru Jim Cramer suggested buying the stock, with a related CNBC article trumpeting that "Blockbuster is Back." Is this a rare tale of an incumbent successfully fighting back against a disruptor? Not exactly.

Is your business about to be torpedoed by a "disruptive attacker"? Click here to stay ahead of the curve with Clayton Christensen's Strategy & Innovation newsletter.

Blockbuster (nyse: BBI - news - people ) has had its hands full fighting against Netflix (nasdaq: NFLX - news - people ), whose subscription-based online DVD rental offering is highly disruptive to Blockbuster's core offering of renting individual DVDs in physical stores. One key difference: Blockbuster made the most of its profits by charging late fees. Netflix has no late fees.

Netflix has been a shining success story. It fended off advances from Wal-Mart (nyse: WMT - news - people ) and Amazon (nasdaq: AMZN - news - people ) and took a mere eight years to reach $1 billion in revenue.

In 2004, Blockbuster began fighting back in earnest. After a couple of turns, in 2006 it introduced what appeared to be a compelling counter-attack--its "Total Access" package, which let consumers get DVDs in stores or via the mail.

There's just one problem with Blockbuster's response: It doesn't appear to have figured out how to make its online offerings as compelling or as profitable as Netflix's online offering. Blockbuster's surging profits came not from growth in its new business, but from cutting costs (including advertising), raising prices and generating more sales in Blockbuster's retail locations. While the company continues to play in the online arena, its strategic focus seems to be to try to squeeze as much life out of its core model as possible.

In February, Netflix raised its annual subscriber and revenue projections. All in all, it looks like another victory for Netflix. While Netflix and Blockbuster both still need to figure out how to win as the battle shifts to video on demand, Netflix appears to have decisively fended off Blockbuster's advances.

The reason why Netflix won this battle is that its disruption is rooted in a different business model than Blockbuster's. Business models are powerful sources of competitive advantage because they are very difficult to copy. You can't simply mimic superficial features and functionalities; you have to find ways to replicate structures, operational processes and relationships.

Netflix has optimized around its online model. It has been experimenting and fine-tuning this model for more than a decade. Blockbuster is trying to stand astride two distinct business models. It's hard to optimize what appears financially to be secondary to the core.

That's not to say it can't be done. Charles Schwab (nasdaq: SCHW - news - people ), for example, became a viable player in the online brokerage business even though that business model had distinct differences from its core model. Similarly, Dow Corning mastered a low-cost model with its Xiameter distribution channel.

In both cases, however, the incumbent gave the new venture substantial autonomy, which improved the venture's ability to optimize around the new, instead of being weighed down by the need to please two masters.

It always appears logical to leverage what you have. But the quick path isn't always the best path. Incumbents fighting back against attackers with different business models have to be willing to "forget" critical pieces of their core business. If not, they'll end up with a quick but ultimately unsatisfying response.

Scott D. Anthony is president of Innosight and co-author of The Innovator's Guide to Growth (to be published in May 2008 by Harvard Business School Press).

Adapted from a recent edition of Strategy & Innovation . For more information visit www.forbes.com/strategy&innovation .

[dicki31785]

So jetzt ist Netflix aber interessant 30$ hmmhmm...noch ein paar tage abwarten ob die marke haelt oder ob der 200er SMA noch getestet wird....Kaufmann brothers habe NFLX coverage initiated...ueberraschend auf hold eingestuftKZ $32....mfg CW

[dicki31785]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.054.246 von dicki31785 am 08.05.08 11:59:57

So leute gibt nicht viel neues zu berichten ist realtiv ruhig um nflx geworden nach den Q zahlen...der kampf um die 30 marke geht weiter....bald gibt es einen ausbruch...nach oben o. nach unten...weiter nur auf der watchlist mfg CW

[dicki31785]

So gestern die 30 unterschritten aber after hours wieder die 30 gepackt dank realtiv guten ergebnissen von Blockbuster(BBI)...Der Kampf geht um die 30er marke geht weiter obwohl ich denke falls nicht bald nachrichten bezueglich einer kooperation mit MSFT(X Box 360) kommt wird die Marke fallen und dann kann man schoen bei 25 einsammeln gehen....Hier noch eine Analyse:

May 15, 2008, 12:37 pm
Netflix: Stock Is Too High, Says Needham
Posted by Eric Savitz

Netflix (NFLX) shares are coming under pressure today following a skeptical note on the company from Needham analyst Charlie Wolf.

Wolf today picked up coverage of the company with an Under Perform rating; he writes that “the company’s current valuation incorporates unrealistic subscriber acquisition cost and churn rate assumptions.” He calculates fair value for the shares to be $22, well below the current level.

Wolf, a long-time Apple bull, seems to be making the anti-iTunes call here. “Netflix’s immediate challenge lies in building a profitable video digital distribution business,” he writes. “In contrast with the online DVD rental market, which the company has owned, Netflix will have to compete with several heavyweights in this market. Indeed, Apple has already carved out a first-mover advantage.”

Wolf sees the company reporting profits of $1.30 a share this year and $1.75 in 2009; those estimates are actually considerably above the Street consensus of $1.23 and $1.54, respectively.

NFLX today is off 34 cents, or 1.1%, to $30.06

[dicki31785]

AP
TV boxes let Netflix users bypass mail delivery
Tuesday May 20, 12:37 am ET
By Michael Liedtke, AP Business Writer
Netflix takes evolutionary step with new players that stream movies directly to TV

SAN FRANCISCO (AP) -- Preparing for the eventual extinction of its DVD-by-mail rental service, Netflix Inc. on Tuesday is introducing its first solution for subscribers who want entertainment delivered directly to their television sets with just a few clicks on a remote control.

The breakthrough comes in the form of 5-inch-by-5-inch device tailored for a year-old service that uses high-speed Internet connections to stream more than 10,000 movies and TV shows from Netflix's library.

Although it's provided at no additional cost to most of Netflix's 8.2 million subscribers, the streaming service has had limited appeal so far because it doesn't include the latest movies and couldn't easily be watched on anything but a personal computer.

At $99.99, the Netflix set-top box is priced like a DVD player and is just as simple to hook up to a television. A high-speed Internet connection can either be plugged into the box or the device can pick up a wireless signal.

Similar Internet-to-TV devices made by Apple Inc. and Vudu Inc. cost $229 to $295.

"We think this is something that offers a big value at a low cost," said Reed Hastings, Netflix's chief executive officer.

The Netflix box, made by Silicon Valley startup Roku Inc., is the first of several devices that will pipe Netflix's streaming service to TV sets.

LG Electronics is expected to include the streaming capability in a Blu-ray DVD player that it plans to debut during the second half of this year.

Without providing further details, Netflix has said two other major consumer electronics companies are working on set-top boxes for its streaming service.

Hastings is confident that the demand for DVD rentals will remain strong for at least several more years, partly because movie studios aren't ready to fully embrace digital distribution.

But as technology makes it easier to rent and buy movies within a few minutes instead of waiting for them to be delivered through the mail, Hastings realizes his Los Gatos-based company won't survive unless it evolves.

That's why Netflix has poured more than $40 million into its streaming service, called "Watch Instantly," and is now trying to encourage its subscribers to use it more frequently even though it doesn't generate more revenue.

If anything, the streaming service is eroding Netflix's profits because the company's licensing fees are based on how frequently subscribers use it. And any customer who pays at least $8.99 per month for a DVD rental plan gets unlimited access to the streaming service.

Because the new set-top box figures to spur more usage, Netflix expects its profit margins to be squeezed later this year. Even so, the company is still projecting a profit of as much as $83 million this year, up about 20 percent from last year. The bright outlook has helped lift Netflix's market value 16 percent so far this year.

Hastings eventually hopes to recoup some of the added expense by having to spend less money to attract and retain customers as more people enjoy the convenience of the streaming service. Netflix has no plans to start charging an additional fee for the streaming service this year.

Cowen and Co. analyst James Friedland believes the number of Netflix subscribers interested in purchasing the new set-top box will be relatively small.

Part of the problem is that few recent movies are available on Netflix's streaming service. That's a major shortcoming because nearly one-third of the rental requests on Netflix's DVD service are for new movie releases, Friedland said.

"You can't really drive consumers to do anything before they're ready," Friedland said. "You can only give them options. And Netflix seems to be trying to deliver as much as it can (with the streaming service), given the current limitations of the studios and technology."

Netflix offers more than 100,000 movies and TV shows on DVD, about 10 times the streaming service's selection.

Although the streaming device bears the Netflix brand, it's the brainchild of Roku's founder and CEO, Anthony Wood.

After temporarily leaving his startup to work on the streaming device as a Netflix employee, Wood returned to Roku earlier this year. At that point, Netflix paid $6 million for an undisclosed stake in Saratoga-based Roku. Several other former Netflix employees also work at Roku.

On The Net:

http://www.roku.com/netflixplayer

[entombed1966]

Durchwegs positiv:
http://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-aktien/netflix.a…

Heute in der Spitze schon fast 10 % im Plus, naja, das Umfeld ist heute nicht dazu angetan für Druck nach oben zu sorgen. Aber immerhin, meinen EK habe ich wieder, jetzt bitte weiter so!

[dicki31785]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.137.335 von entombed1966 am 20.05.08 21:16:30

Das waren heute gute nachrichten...hast du dir mal die box angeguckt?sehr klein und kostet nur $99...aber es wird sich zeigen ob es ein erfolg wird?!?...man kann nur ein zehntel der filme die man streamen kann, ueber die box gucken(also 10,000 aus 100,000 bis jetzt aber es wird an einer connection zum internet netflix gearbeitet)...fragt sich wieviele werden es kaufen bis "hollywood" sich nicht dem internet mit new realses oeffnet..aber mittelfristig sicher ein super sache...

Naja die box ist relativ preiswert 99$ plus membership fees bei nflx ab 8.99$/monat(wenn man die nicht schon hat)...sind ca. $200 im ersten jahr und danach $100 pro jahr(im vergleich zu premiere sicher ein schnaeppchen, aber wohl nicht ganz vergleichbar)...naja aber man kann sich filme usw. auch aus dem internet kostenlos ziehen aber manche menschen legen eben auch wert auf die qualität, oder moegen nicht illegal downloaden usw.

trotzdem ist das geschaeftsmodell fuer viele in deutschland unvorstellbar da alles so "nah" beinander liegt....in Amerika leben viele menschen auch noch in eher laendlichen gegenden...zudem sind viele Amerikaner noch sehr bequemDeswegen ist das geschaeft mit verschickbaren DVDs nicht tot und die umstellung auf digital ist schon eingeleitet!

Aber man muss auch schauen wie sich die Konjunktur in den USA auf die geschaefte auswirkt oder in welche richtung die Konjunktur der usa ueberhaupt geht..naja ich hoffe diese woche auch dabei zu sein warte das umfeld aber ab...mfg und viel erfolg CW

Long STP, ABX, TSL

[dicki31785]

Zu dem Artikel muss man wissen das der author zum verkauf von Goog geraten hat als Goog bei 500$ standen


Netflix's Roku is Doomed to Fail
by: Thomas Hawk posted on: May 21, 2008 | about stocks: NFLX

Netflix (NFLX) and Roku Tuesday announced the $100 Netflix Roku. What's a Netflix Roku? It's a $100 box that will let you watch Netflix "Watch Now" movies on demand with yet another new box to clutter up your living room. CNET has a review here. They say they've had a box and have been testing it for two weeks. Interestingly, it looks like Mike K, who runs the top Netflix blog on the internet Hacking Netflix, hasn't had one for the past two weeks. Interesting how everyone is always saying that "Netflix gets blogging."

So why is this a bad move? Easy. Because nobody will buy the box. Well not nobody. They'll sell a couple of them I suppose, but this thing will never really get off the ground in a big way. We've seen this movie before, it was called Akimbo. Remember the Akimbo box that was going to revolutionize how we watched TV? So why will the Netflix Roku box fail? Simple.

1. People don't want more boxes in their living room, they want less. A satellite receiver or cable box, an XBox 360, a home theater sound system, a TiVo, an AppleTV, a DVD player, etc. etc. The last thing people want is one more ugly box cluttering up their living room.

2. The content on the box is not very compelling. Do I want Netflix "Watch Now" in my living room? Sure. Would I pay $100 to buy a box that streams old episodes of Columbo or Xena Warrior Princess Season 1? No.

Can I get Juno on the Roku? No. Can I get Michael Clayton, or There Will Be Blood or American Gangster on the Roku? Nope.

Now some people will say that the hot new releases will be on this box, that it's only a matter of time, etc. but I think until we see that, the box is premature.

The funny thing is that there is already a better way to get Netflix "Watch Now" into your living room without having to pay $100 to buy yet another box. It's called the XBox 360. You can already (theoretically) stream Netflix's "Watch Now" service directly to your XBox 360 with your Media Center PC (that is up in your attic or over in your home office and connected via your home network -- not in your living room). I've been trying to get this to work a few weeks myself now but I've been hampered by the dreaded Netflix/Microsoft (MSFT) "good for the consumer" DRM issues.

So why is Netflix screwing around with Roku, when they could be working on and developing a better solution with the XBox 360? My guess is that it's simply shortsightedness. Roku is probably offering them something like $20 per box and Microsoft likely won't pay them anything. The problem is that $20 per box doesn't amount to a hill of beans if you don't sell any boxes.

The better solution is to better improve the XBox 360 version of "Watch Now" and then let Microsoft's marketing department push this new "one more reason why people ought to buy an XBox 360" (that also is a DVD player, game player, extender which gets all of your TV, photos and music to your living room, and now also plays Netflix content -- think less boxes, not more).

Of course if Netflix pushes this idea then nobody will buy the $100 (and their $20 cut) Roku box.

Of course another way to spin this story is simply that the Roku is the best thing since sliced bread and is the "$100 AppleTV Killer" like they did over at CNET's News "Blog", which got to break yet another story. Good thing Netflix gets blogging!

[dicki31785]

SEHR GUTE NACHRICHTEN!!!!!!!!!!

http://eastbay.bizjournals.com/eastbay/stories/2008/06/09/da…

Tuesday, June 10, 2008 - 1:39 PM PDT
Netflix set-top boxes sold out
East Bay Business Times

In less than three weeks, Netflix Inc.'s new set-top boxes have been cleared out, and the Los Gatos company said it is pressing its supplier to speed up production.

The set-top system, made by Saratoga-based Roku Inc. and introduced on May 20, allows Netflix customers to order movies online and watch them on TV using Wi-Fi technology.

Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) chief executive Reed Hastings declined to say how many of the $100 devices have been sold but did say the company's goal is to make its service "ubiquitous" on a wide selection of devices by 2010.

Netflix, which distributes movies to subscribers through the U.S. mail, is working with three other consumer electronics manufacturers to build its software into products such as DVD players and game consoles, Hastings said.

Privately held Roku said its backlog will take six to eight weeks to clear up as more units arrive from Asia.

Analysts say one prospective Netflix partner is believed to be Redmond, Wash.-based Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT), which would adapt the Xbox game console to show streaming movies. Hastings, a Microsoft director, said other partnerships will be announced later this year.

[entombed1966]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.281.436 von dicki31785 am 11.06.08 14:18:54

Danke für die Info.

Hoffe dass endlich Bewegung rein kommt, seit ich gekauft habe ist es seit- und abwärts gegangen.

[dicki31785]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.281.586 von entombed1966 am 11.06.08 14:36:46

Also ich bin auch gerade eingestiegen....hoffe das wird was sieht auf keinen fall schlecht aus die meldung sollte eigentlich geholfen haben...bis jetzt tut sie das aber leider nicht das volumen ist minimal...aber die 30 sollte weiterhin halten!!!Viel Glueck!!mfg CW

Long ABX,CSIQ,NFLX,STP,TSL

[dicki31785]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.281.586 von entombed1966 am 11.06.08 14:36:46

Ich gebe der aktie noch 45 min. dann steige ich aus, falls die $30 nicht zurueckerobert wird....weil mein bedenken ist das sie somit aus den seitwaertstrend nach unten ausgebrochen ist und erst wieder halt findet am 200er SMA...und bis dahin sind es noch 5 dollar pro aktie...
Das ist zu teuer dann lieber bei ca. 25$ wieder einsteigen!!mfg CW

Long ABX, CSIQ, NFLX, STP, TSL

[entombed1966]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.357.229 von dicki31785 am 23.06.08 21:11:33

Ich hab's auch satt, vorläufig wird das eher nichts mehr. Dazu ist das Umfeld ja auch nicht dazu angetan für steigende Kurse zu sorgen.

Ich steig' auch aus, die Argumentation von Dir kann ich nachvollziehen.

[dicki31785]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.357.309 von entombed1966 am 23.06.08 21:23:33

yup bin gerade auch raus...und der cfo und ceo haben letzte woche paar ihrer aktien verkauft koennte ein vorbote sein...fragt sie nur ob man nicht lieber short gehen soll und das geld was wir verloren haben wieder reinzuholen....mfg CW

Long ABX, CSIQ, STP, NFLX

[dicki31785]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.357.309 von entombed1966 am 23.06.08 21:23:33

Da haben wir wohl richtig gehandelt glueck im unglueck sozusagen...aber bei 26 sollte die eigentlich halt machen...und dann kommen die Q zahlen und geben die richtung vor....aber wie gesagt es waren ein paar insider verkauefe in der zweiten juni woche....also ich guck mir das weiter an...aber denke nicht das ich vor den Q zahlen reinspringe ausser natuerlich der kurs sieht ca. 20...mfg CW

Long ABX, CSIQ, TSL

[dicki31785]

Netflix stars in a slow-mo economy
Recession puts the spotlight on the video rental sector.
By Scott Moritz, writer
July 1, 2008: 3:15 PM EDT

NEW YORK (Fortune) -- When economic ill-winds start to blow, consumer businesses like booze and cigarettes have turned out to be safe harbors for investors. Will video rental king Netflix prove the same?

With the average U.S. gas price at $4.09 a gallon and movie tickets at $10, it may be.

"I don't know if Netflix (NFLX) is recession proof, but it's certainly an advantage, in the respect that Netflix is almost a substitute for going to the movies," says Needham analyst Charlie Wolf.

Netflix signed up a record 764,000 subscribers in the first quarter, helping to push sales up 7% to $326.2 million over a year ago. First quarter earnings were $13.4 million or 21 cents a share, up from $10 million or 14 cents last year.

The company, however, has trimmed its yearly profit outlook slightly and attributed its strong subscriber growth to a price hike at rival Blockbuster.

That suggests the growth rate is unsustainable. Nevertheless Netflix shares, at $27.20, are up 40% in the past year. At a price-earnings ratio of 17.6 times estimated profits for the coming year, the stock is no longer priced for the discount bin. Blockbuster's stock is down 42% during the same period.

While cautious about Netflix's stock price, Wolf is encouraged about the company's prospects. He upgraded the big DVD renter to hold from sell Tuesday after studying subscriber trends. He found that new customers cancel service at nearly twice the rate of long-term customers. But long term customers keep getting more profitable the longer they stick around.

"Because a subscriber pays a fixed monthly fee [typically $14], the fewer DVDs he rents, the more profitable he is to Netflix. And the number of DVDs a subscriber rents tends to decline with the length of his subscription," Wolf wrote in his report Tuesday.

Perhaps less encouraging is Netflix's attempt to stimulate online downloads by offering customers a $100 set-top device made by Roku. The service requires a fixed-fee monthly plan that tops out at around $40, and the selection is limited to 10,000 non-HD videos and TV shows. Alternatively, Apple (AAPL, Fortune 500) has about 1,000 movies with 100 in high definition available through its set top box.

Assuming entertainment hungry consumers will hunker down with videos to ride out the slowdown, Netflix isn't the only player serving the home-bound. In addition to DVRs, new services are aimed directly at Netflix's rental business like Apple's iTunes movie store. And archrival Blockbuster (BBI, Fortune 500) has revamped its Total Access plan, which adds mail delivery to its in-store service.

A comScore report showed Blockbuster's unique user traffic jump in March and April, "providing an additional reason for caution in evaluating the competitive environment," Thomas Weisel analyst Lloyd Walmsley wrote in a recent research note.

Netflix might be in a good spot to weather the recession, but it has to share the space.

[dicki31785]

Subscribers Up 25% As Netflix Beats Profit Views
Friday July 25, 6:20 pm ET
Patrick Seitz

Online DVD rental service Netflix delivered second-quarter profit Friday that topped Wall Street's target, thanks to healthy subscriber gains.

Netflix (NasdaqGS:NFLX - News) reported earnings per share of 42 cents, up 13.5% from the year-earlier quarter. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expected 40 cents. Per-share profit rose much higher than overall net income, up 4% at $26.6 million, because stock buybacks give it 9% fewer shares now than a year ago.

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The Los Gatos, Calif., company said sales rose 11% to $337.6 million, matching views.

Netflix ended the quarter with 8.4 million subscribers, up 25% from a year ago and 2% from the first quarter.

The company also raised its guidance for the full year.

"They're managing the bottom line very well," said Michael Pachter, an analyst with Wedbush Morgan Securities.

Netflix shares rose 4.2% Friday to close at 27.85.

The company cut its marketing expenses last quarter, which helped its profitability but might have limited its subscriber growth.

Some analysts say Netflix should have taken advantage of the slowdown in marketing spending by rival Blockbuster (NYSE:BBI - News) to accelerate subscriber growth.

"Blockbuster has pulled back (on promoting its DVD subscription service) quite a bit the last few quarters," said Larry Witt, an analyst with Morningstar. "I don't expect Blockbuster to sit on the sidelines forever. It seems like a pretty good opportunity (for Netflix) to gain a lot of market share."

Others credit Netflix managers for showing discipline in marketing spending and balancing subscriber gains and profitability.

"They're attracting more people than ever on less marketing spending," Pachter said.

Netflix also isn't spending wildly on its online video streaming initiative, Pachter says.

"They're not pitching money down a hole on streaming," he said.

The company is doing well in managing the expected long transition from DVDs by mail to Internet streaming, he says.

Reed Hastings, Netflix co-founder and chief executive, says he expects the DVD-by-mail service to continue to grow for five to 10 years.

The trend will be accelerated by the rise of e-commerce and the closing of more video rental stores, he said in a conference call with analysts Friday.

He notes the company's progress in offering subscribers the option of unlimited video streaming directly from the Internet to their TVs with the launch of the Netflix Player by Roku in May.

Netflix this month announced a deal with Microsoft (NasdaqGS:MSFT - News) to add video streaming to the Xbox 360 game console by late fall.

And LG Electronics plans to offer a set-top box with Netflix video streaming this fall.

Netflix competes primarily with Blockbuster, which operates video rental stores and a DVD subscription service called Total Access.

Netflix also competes with video rental kiosks such as those from Redbox, and online rental and paid download services from Amazon.com (NasdaqGS:AMZN - News), Apple (NasdaqGS:AAPL - News) and others.

Netflix expects to end the year with 9.1 million to 9.7 million subscribers vs. 7.48 million at the end of last year.

It raised its earnings forecast for the year to a range of $1.19 to $1.31 per share compared with the previous $1.16 to $1.29. It earned 97 cents a share last year.

It also tightened its 2008 revenue forecast to a range of $1.36 billion to $1.38 billion, from the previous $1.35 billion to $1.39 billion. It has 2007 revenue of $1.2 billion.

Netflix's gross profit margin in the second quarter was 31.8%, down from 35.2% in the first quarter, but up a tad from 31.7% in the year-ago quarter. It said gross margins will rise slightly this quarter and next even as it spends more for Internet-delivered content.

It also expects soon to start testing price increases for rentals of high-definition Blu-ray Disc movies.

Netflix reported its lowest subscriber acquisition cost since becoming a public company in 2002. It cost Netflix $28.95 per gross subscriber addition in the second quarter compared with $44.02 for the same period in 2007 and $29.50 for the first quarter this year.

[dicki31785]

tja..ja entombed...da haetten wir eine sehr resistente aktie gehabt...leider haben wir bei ca. 28 verkauft....ueberlege im naechsten abschwung wieder reinzugehen, bei 30 ungefaehr...mag immer noch das geschaeftsmodell...und die roku box scheint ein renner zu sein...aber es draengen competitors in die niche von netflix....obwohl nflx immer noch paar schritte voraus ist....aber die letzten zahlen war sehr gut...und der wirtschaftliche abschwung hat nflx in keinem sinne weh getan...naja schaun wir mal mfg CW

[dicki31785]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 35.220.404 von dicki31785 am 22.09.08 18:12:50

Netflix Passes 10 Million Subscribers, With 600,000 Net Additions Since the First of the Year

LOS GATOS, Calif., Feb. 12 /PRNewswire/ -- Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) , the world's largest online movie rental service, today announced it has surpassed 10 million subscribers, a milestone that reflects the widespread and growing appeal of the company's service. For one low monthly price, Netflix members can get unlimited DVDs delivered to their homes quickly and can instantly watch unlimited movies and TV episodes streamed over the internet to their TVs and computers.

In crossing the 10 million subscriber threshold last night, Netflix has added more than 600,000 net subscribers since January 1. The company recently reported having surpassed nine million subscribers in the fourth quarter of 2008 and having ended the year with 9.4 million subscribers.

The company attributed the recent surge in subscribers to growing consumer recognition of the value and convenience offered by Netflix and increasingly more ways to instantly watch a growing library of movies and TV episodes from Netflix on PCs, Intel-based Macs and TVs. Netflix ready devices now include the Roku digital video player, Blu-ray disc players from LG Electronics and Samsung, Microsoft's Xbox 360 game console and newer models of TiVo DVRs.

"Ten million subscribers is a symbolic but meaningful achievement for our company," said Reed Hastings, Netflix co-founder and CEO. "From a subscriber standpoint, Netflix is singularly focused on making movie enjoyment easy, and we'll strive to deliver on that promise in added and improved ways in the years to come."

Since the Netflix subscription service was launched in September 1999, it has added subscribers at an average annual rate of nearly 30 percent. Over that time, the company has been consistently recognized as a leader in customer satisfaction in Internet commerce. For eight straight surveys, Netflix has been independently rated the number one customer experience on the Web by the Ann Arbor, Mich., research firm ForeSee Results.

In announcing it has surpassed 10 million subscribers, Netflix today reiterated the guidance it provided to investors on January 26, including the guidance for first quarter ending subscribers of 10.1 million to 10.3 million subscribers and full-year ending subscribers of 10.6 to 11.3 million subscribers.

About Netflix

Netflix, Inc. is the world's largest online movie rental service, with more than 10 million subscribers. For one low monthly price, Netflix subscribers can get DVDs delivered to their homes and can instantly watch movies and TV episodes streamed to their TVs and computers, all in unlimited amounts. Subscribers can choose from over 100,000 DVD titles and a growing library of more than 12,000 choices that can be watched instantly. There are never any due dates or late fees. DVDs are delivered free to subscribers by first class mail, with a postage-paid return envelope, from 58 distribution centers. More than 97 percent of Netflix subscribers live in areas that generally receive shipments in one business day. Netflix has partnered with leading consumer electronics companies to offer a range of devices that can instantly stream movies and TV episodes to members' TVs from Netflix. For more information, visit http://www.netflix.com.

Forward looking statement

This press release contains certain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws, including statements regarding previously announced guidance. The forward-looking statements in this release are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results and events to differ, including, without limitation: our ability to attract new subscribers and retain existing subscribers, especially in the current uncertain economic environment; our ability to manage our subscriber acquisition cost as well as the cost of content delivered to our subscribers; fluctuations in consumer usage of our service; the deterioration of the U.S. economy and its affect on online commerce or the filmed entertainment industry; conditions that effect our delivery through the U.S. Postal Service, including regulatory changes and postal rate increases; changes in the costs of acquiring DVDs or electronic content; customer spending on DVDs and related products; disruption in service on our website or with our computer systems; competition and widespread consumer adoption of different modes of viewing in- home filmed entertainment. A detailed discussion of these and other risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results and events to differ materially from such forward-looking statements is included in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including our Annual Report on Form 10-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on February 28, 2008. We undertake no obligation to update forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances occurring after the date of this press release.

[dicki31785]

Netflix, Inc. Reiterates Q1, FY 2009 Guidance
Thursday, 12 Feb 2009 08:30am EST

Netflix, Inc. reiterated the guidance it provided to investors on January 26, 2009. On January 26, 2009 the Company announced that for first quarter 2009 it expects revenue of $387 million to $393 million, GAAP net income of $15 million to $20 million and GAAP EPS of $0.25 to $0.33 per diluted share. For fiscal 2009 it expected revenue of $1.58 billion to $1.635 billion, GAAP net income of $88 million to $98 million and GAAP EPS of $1.43 to $1.59 per diluted share. According to Reuters Estimates, analysts are expecting the Company to report revenue of 390 million and GAAP EPS of $0.31 for the first quarter 2009; revenue of $1.62 billion and GAAP EPS of $1.57 for fiscal 2009.

[dicki31785]

http://seekingalpha.com/article/130059-netflix-high-flier-or…

Netflix: High Flier or Falling Star?

Tuesday marks the unofficial beginning to earnings season. When Alcoa Inc. (AA) issues its first quarter report after the close, it will touch off one of the most important quarterly earnings periods that the market has seen in years. Why is this quarter so important? Well essentially, investors will be looking for fundamental proof to help back up the latest rise in stock prices.

As traders, it is important to know which companies are the most likely to bring surprises which move stock prices. Surprises can come in the form of different earnings numbers, but more often come as a result of management issuing different guidance than previously expected. And this brings up a difficult question: What exactly are investors expecting from each stock?

Netflix Inc. (NFLX) offers us a prime example of a stock whose investors are expecting great things. Since its October low of $17.90, NFLX has climbed 151% hitting an intraday high of $44.90. That’s astounding in any market, but especially impressive considering how difficult the last two quarters have been.

The strength of the stock stems from the success Netflix has had in signing up new customers. Many consumers have used video rentals as an inexpensive alternative to more pricey entertainment. In the fourth quarter alone, Netflix added a net 718,000 subscribers. And since the company’s costs are relatively fixed, much of the revenue from these additional subscribers flowed directly to the bottom line.

The Short Case for Netflix

It may surprise you that with so much strength in a difficult economy, I am actually suggesting a short position on this stock. But as we gear up for the earnings report later this month, I expect any surprises to be on the negative side. When you have a stock trading at such a high price as Netflix, any disappointment can lead to very large drops in the stock price.

To understand the bear case, let’s first look at what bullish analysts are expecting:

* Subscribers: While management issued guidance for 10.1 to 10.3 million subscribers at the end of Q1, Barclays is generously placing expectations at 10.324 million.
* Revenue: Guidance from the last conference call pointed to $387 to $393 million in revenue. Barclays advises clients to expect the high number at $393 million.
* Earnings: Finally Netflix told investors to expect $0.25 to 0.33 for earnings in the first quarter. Barclays has published expectations at $0.32 which is certainly at the high end of the range and may or may not be optimistic.

Now whether these numbers get hit is really just academic. The point is that investors have extremely high expectations for both the first quarter and for the entire year. That is why you see the stock trading at 30 times the reported earnings. It would seem that even if the company reiterates the current guidance, the stock would still fall because investors are disappointed that guidance was not raised.

Looking further down the horizon, there are a few situations that could arise and challenge Netflix:

* Profit Margins: At this point the company enjoys relatively low costs for the video content. But if studios begin to push the cost of content up, it could quickly cut into the profitability measures.
* Competitors: Currently there are a few smaller players that offer similar video rental or online streaming solutions. But the cost of entry into this market is very low and a new competitor could arguably begin to cut into NFLX’s market share and steal customers away.
* Cost of Customers: Right now it costs roughly $26.67 per gross additional subscriber. Now gross additions are very different from net additions. As customers cancel subscriptions, the net number (718,000 last quarter) can be very different from gross (2,085,000 last quarter). So these costs to add subscribers could become a drain on earnings.
* Exclusive Agreements: Netflix continues to seek agreements for distributing their media through specific devices. So far the Roku and TiVo (TIVO) platforms have agreements through Amazon.com (AMZN)’s digital offering, and more deals could pressure Netflix.

Barclays is expecting the next three years to bring 15 to 20% annualized growth which makes a 30 multiple a bit hard to rationalize. So at this point I believe there is enough risk in NFLX to short the stock, or potentially to buy puts. As always, traders should use discipline and have an exit strategy if the stock moves against them. Use caution, but don’t be surprised to see this stock lower in the coming months.

[dicki31785]

Uebermorgen ist nflx dran mit zahlen...nach dem unglaublichen run bis auf $50 (neues 52 wo hoch) sind jetzt 36% ,ca. 16,5 mio. shares , der anleger short...und gestern waren es noch 39%....wer behaelt recht?die longs oder die shorts...?

Egal was passiert ich rechne am donnerstag mit einer heftigen reaktion....bei normalen volumen und wenn nur aktien getraded werden die short sind brauch man acht tage damit alle shorts sich eindecken....

Oder eben die shorts behalten recht und es geht abwaerts nach diesem enormen run...die frage ist ob man nicht long und short geht (OS) und einfach gewinne durch die erhoehte "volatility" einstreicht...naja ich bin gespannt auf donnerstag SPWR und NFLX praesentieren...mfg CW

[dicki31785]

April 23, 2009, 5:19 pm
Netflix: Strong Q1, Solid Guidance; But Stock Slumps
Posted by Eric Savitz

Netflix (NFLX) shares are trading lower in late trading despite what appears to pretty impressive earnings and guidance.

For Q1, the video rental company posted revenue of $394.1 million, up 21% year over year, ahead 10% sequentially, and above the Street at $390.1 million. Non-GAAP EPS of 40 cents was well above the Street at 31 cents. The company added 920,000 net subs in the quarter, to finished with 10.31 million.

Gross margin slipped to 34.2% from 35.2% in the December quarter, but beat the 31.7% from the year-ago quarter. (Lower GM: is that the problem?)

Churn in the quarter was 4.2%, up from 3.9% a year ago, but flat with Q4.

For Q2, Netflix sees revenue of $403 million to $409 million, with EPS of 44-53 cents; the Street had been looking for $407.7 million and 47 cents. The company sees quarter-end subs of 10.4 million to 10.6 million. (That would be a lot slower sub growth than Q1…is that the issue?)

For the full year, NFLX sees revenue of $1.63 billion to $1.67 billion, up from previous guidance of $1.58 billion to $1.635 billion. The Street has been looking for $1.64 billion. The company sees full year EPS of $1.56 to $1.72 a share, up from old guidance of $1.43 to $1.59. The Street sees $1.60 a share. The company now sees year-end subs of 11.2 million to 11.8 million, up from its previous guidance of 10.6 million to 11.3 million.

In late trading, NFLX is down $1.98, or 4.4%, to $43.34.

[dicki31785]

Netflix profit rises as subscribers increase, costs decline
By David B. Wilkerson, MarketWatch
Last update: 9:47 p.m. EDT April 23, 2009
Comments: 1

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) - Online DVD-rental pioneer Netflix Inc. said Thursday that its first-quarter profit rose 68% as the company surpassed the 10 million subscriber mark and cut costs during the period, topping the average estimate of Wall Street analysts.
The company also lifted its revenue and subscriber estimates for 2009.

NFLX 45.32, -0.56, -1.2%) said it earned $22.4 million, or 37 cents a share, compared with a profit of $13.3 million, or 21 cents a share, in the same quarter a year ago.
Chart of NFLX
Excluding stock-based compensation, Netflix said it would have earned 40 cents a share in the latest three months.
Revenue rose 21% to $394 million.
Analysts surveyed by FactSet Research were expecting a profit of 33 cents a share, excluding stock-based compensation, on $391.1 million in revenue.
Chief Executive Reed Hastings told analysts the company has no current plans to offer stream-only rental subscriptions, contrary to speculation.
Hastings said on a conference call that the online DVD rental pioneer has considered the idea "from time to time," but for now, "the combination of DVD rental and streaming is what our customers are interested in."
However, Netflix does intend to spend "aggressively" to market its movie download service, so as to be competitive with rivals such as Apple Inc. (AAPL:
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AMZN 80.61, +1.41, +1.8%) and other streaming providers, Hastings said.
However, the company expects the costs to acquire each customer to stay below $28 for the rest of 2009, according to Chief Financial Officer Barry McCarthy.
Netflix paid $25.79 to acquire each subscriber in the first quarter, down from $29.48 a year earlier, the company reported.
For the second quarter, Netflix still expects revenue of $403 million to $409 million and a total of 10.4 million to 10.6 million subscribers by June 30.
For the year, the company raised its revenue outlook to a range of $1.63 billion to $1.67 billion from its previous forecast of $1.58 billion to $1.635 billion.
And the company now anticipates that it will end 2009 with 11.2 million to 11.8 million customers, up from an earlier estimate of 10.6 million to 11.3 million.
Netflix ended the first quarter with about 10.3 million subscribers, up 25% from the 8.24 million customers it had at the end of the first quarter of 2008.
Churn, or the rate of subscriber cancellations, was 4.2% in the first quarter, compared with 3.9% a year earlier.
Hastings said Netflix expects DVD rental kiosks from Redbox, owned by Coinstar Inc. (CSTR:
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CSTR 29.94, -1.00, -3.2%) , to be its main competitor by the end of 2009, surpassing video stores. The kiosks, which charge $1 per day for rentals, have sprung up at supermarkets, Wal-Mart (WMT:
Wal-Mart Stores Inc outlets, and many other places with significant foot traffic.
A growing number of customers who cancel their Netflix subscriptions cite kiosks as a reason why they dropped the service, Hastings said.
But the CEO also said Netflix is not overly concerned about the kiosks, despite their increasing ubiquity, because the kiosks focus on new-release DVDs, which only account for about a third of Netflix's rentals.
"Our differentiators continue to be our vast selection, over 100,000 titles, the convenience of mail and streaming," he said.
For a basic monthly subscription rate starting at $4.99, Netflix customers go online to select DVDs, which are delivered via first-class mail, including postage-paid return envelopes. More than 97% of Netflix subscribers live in areas that can receive disks in one business day, and the company's library carries more than 100,000 titles.
Since January 2007, Netflix has offered downloads as well, with more than 12,000 titles available for streaming. With unlimited plans starting at $8.99 a month, customers can rent at least one DVD at a time and stream as many movies as they like.
Starting April 27, Netflix will raise its fees for subscribers who want the more costly Blu-ray high-definition discs.
The price for a basic subscription with one DVD out at a time on an unlimited basis, plus Blu-ray, will go to $10.99 a month from $8.99. The unlimited plan allowing eight DVDs to be taken out at a time with Blu-ray will cost $56.99, up from $47.99.
Netflix shares closed at $45.32 on Thursday, down 56 cents. End of Story
David B. Wilkerson is a reporter for MarketWatch in Chicago.