Gulf Keystone Irak-Ölperle Deutschland schläft (Seite 24)

[texas2]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 49.560.689 von Eulenfoerster am 14.04.15 15:42:59

http://www.iii.co.uk/articles/236064/goldman-sachs-names-oil…

http://www.gulfkeystone.com/media/89726/investor-presentatio…

[Eulenfoerster]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 49.556.090 von texas2 am 14.04.15 07:39:53

Sehe ich auch so!
Bei Ausweitung der Produktion auf 100.000 Barrel wäre auch eine Übernahme im zweistelligen Mrd.-Bereich eher möglich. Umso mehr wenn die Regierung ihre Verbindlichkeiten endlich begleichen würde.

[texas2]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 49.555.565 von Eulenfoerster am 13.04.15 23:22:26

Denke dass die Bezahlung für das geförderte Öl der wichtigste Punkt ist.

Mit dem dadurch erreichten cash flow kann sich GKP ein wenig zurücklehnen und je nach Bedarf mit beiden Optionen gut fahren:

a) wenn sie verkauft werden ist GKP damit nicht gezwungen ein schlechtes Angebot zu akzeptieren
b) wenn sie weiter machen wird es ab 100.000 bbl/d oder höher nette Dividenden geben

Kann mit beiden leben, Hauptsache GKP generiert einen positiven cash flow

[Eulenfoerster]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 49.546.940 von texas2 am 12.04.15 19:26:43

Einerseits ist man bestrebt die Produktion auf 100.000 Barrel anzuheben, andereseits bietet man sich für eine Übernahme an oder will Anteile veräussern

Weiß nicht, was ich davon halten soll. Sollte die Irakische Regierung die offenen Rechnungen begleichen, könnte GKP selbständig bleiben und der Kurs würde endlich steigen.

[texas2]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 49.546.940 von texas2 am 12.04.15 19:26:43

und so sieht es bei den Nachbarn aus

Bloomberg
April 10, 2015

Oslo: DNO ASA and partner Genel Energy Plc have increased production at their Tawke field in Iraq’s Kurdistan region to a record 150,000 barrels of oil a day as they expect more regular payments for exports.

Tawke is currently the largest producing field in Kurdistan in northern Iraq and DNO, its Norwegian operator, is on track with expansion plans to boost output and processing capacity to 200,000 barrels a day in the first part of the year, Executive Chairman Bijan Mossavar-Rahmani said in an email on Friday.

A “significant” part of production is exported through Turkey, with the balance sold in the local Kurdish market, he said.

DNO extended gains following the news on DNO’s production, rising as much as 8.2 per cent and trading 7.4 per cent higher at 12.4 kroner a share as of 3:30pm in Oslo.

Genel, which owns 25 per cent of Tawke and is Kurdistan’s biggest producer, said last week it expects a regular export- payment mechanism to be established over the course of 2015 following years of squabbling over oil revenue between the semi- autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government and central Iraqi authorities.

While the KRG and Baghdad struck a deal over exports in December, Kurdish producers have had to resort to discounted local sales to secure cash from operations as authorities hang on to export income amid a costly fight against militants from Islamic State.

“We’re fully confident that we’ll receive payments for our production and exports in line with our contractual terms,” Mossavar-Rahmani said, stopping short of providing a timeline like Genel.

“The operating companies in Kurdistan have made it quite clear that future investments will be driven by the timing and extent of payments.

And it’s in the interest of all parties that these investments be made.”
In the meantime, DNO is selling oil locally at as low as $30 a barrel, according to figures provided last month in a presentation. Mossavar-Rahmani declined to provide the proportion of production being exported.

The share of DNO’s working-interest output being exported reached 54 per cent in 2014, up from 43 per cent in the first three months of that year after Kurdistan boosted exports in the fourth quarter, according to calculations based on company filings. DNO’s Chief Financial Officer Haakon Sandborg said last month the company intends to increase local sales through the year.

“The update on DNO’s production figures probably contributed to the stock’s advance today,” Teodor Sveen Nilsen, an analyst at Swedbank AB, said in an email. “This shows DNO is making progress on ramping up capacity at Tawke. However, we are still concerned about weak first-quarter cash flow and the short term outlook for regular export payments.”

Genel rose 0.7 per cent to 521 pence in London after earlier falling as much as 1.4 per cent.

[texas2]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 49.520.246 von Eulenfoerster am 08.04.15 19:40:55

9 April 2015
Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd. (LSE: GKP)
("Gulf Keystone" or "the Company")

2014 Results Announcement
Gulf Keystone, an independent oil and gas exploration and production company with operations in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, today announces its results for the year ended 31 December 2014.

HIGHLIGHTS
Operational

· 2014 gross production of 6,484,391 barrels of oil (2013: 496,921 barrels of oil) with significant growth expected in 2015

· Gulf Keystone's operations in the Kurdistan Region remained secure with production operations and crude oil export deliveries from the Shaikan field uninterrupted throughout 2014

· The first production milestone of 40,000 barrels of oil per day ("bopd") reached in December 2014 following a gradual ramp-up during the year

· Current production in excess of 37,000 bopd is being delivered against the pre-payment of US$ 26 million gross (US$20.8 million net to Gulf Keystone) received for Shaikan crude oil sales on 25 February 2015, with further payments of a similar nature anticipated

Financial - as at 31 December 2014

· Revenues of US$38.6 million achieved (FY13: US$6.7 million); additional revenue in the region of US$100 million owed but not yet recognised for crude oil export sales

· Loss after tax of US$248.2 million (FY13: US$32.0 million)

· Net proceeds of US$240 million raised from the issue of debt securities and associated warrants in April 2014

Financial - post period end

· US$26 million gross (US$20.8 million net) received as pre-payment for Shaikan crude oil sales in February 2015

· Successful placing of 85.9 million shares on 31 March 2015, raising gross proceeds for the Company of US$40 million

· Discussions ongoing with a number of parties in relation to possible asset transactions or corporate sale

· Book Equity Ratio Put Option successfully removed from the Trust Deed and Conditions of the US$250 million 13.0 per cent Guaranteed Notes due 2017 at the noteholder meeting on 7 April 2015

· Cash balance at 8 April 2015 of US$84.7 million (31 Dec 2014: US$87.8 million) excluding recent share placing proceeds

Outlook

· Establish a regular payment cycle for past and future Shaikan crude oil export sales

· Finalise and implement a pipeline access solution for the Shaikan crude

· Achieve stable Shaikan production rates of 40,000 bopd aiming to maintain a daily average of 36,000 bopd throughout 2015

· Manage expenditure in a responsible and prudent manner, continuing to review and control capital commitments

· Make decisions on investment in additional production facilities, development wells and infrastructure required to increase Shaikan production in line with the approved Shaikan Field Development Plan

· Make a decision regarding early production and development of the Sheikh Adi discovery


Commenting on the Full Year results, Andrew Simon, Interim Non-Executive Chairman, said:

"2014 was a pivotal year for Gulf Keystone as we completed the critical transition from explorer to producer. We started the year with our first crude oil export sales and ended the year by achieving our objective of producing 40,000 barrels of oil per day from the Shaikan field, our flagship asset in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. This was a significant achievement for an independent E&P company in a country in the midst of a conflict.

We are committed to rebuilding shareholder value. All avenues for doing this are being considered, including expansion plans for Shaikan. As already announced, the Company is continuing to engage in discussions with interested parties in relation to possible asset transactions or a sale of the Company, as well as considering additional routes to secure further funding."

John Gerstenlauer, CEO, said:

"Hitting an important production milestone and achieving a year of regular crude oil export deliveries confirmed another step change year for our operational progress at Shaikan, verifying the presence of a robust international market for our production and demonstrating our commitment to meeting targets against a challenging geopolitical backdrop and low international oil prices.

Following a number of payments received for crude oil exports in 2014 and the most recent pre-payment of US$26 million in February 2015, the arrears amount for crude oil export sales has not increased significantly in the past six months and we believe that we are close to achieving a steady and stable payment cycle for present and future crude oil export sales."

Enquiries:

Gulf Keystone Petroleum:
[phone]
John Gerstenlauer, CEO

Sami Zouari, CFO

Anastasia Vvedenskaya, Head of Investor Relations



Media Relations and Financial PR Adviser:
[phone]
Mark Antelme



or visit: www.gulfkeystone.com


Notes to Editors:

· Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd. (LSE: GKP) is an independent oil and gas exploration and production company with operations in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq.
· Gulf Keystone Petroleum International (GKPI) holds Production Sharing Contracts for four exploration blocks in Kurdistan, the Shaikan, Sheikh Adi, Ber Bahr and Akri-Bijeel blocks.
· GKPI is the operator of the Shaikan block, which is a major commercial discovery, with a working interest of 75% and is partnered with MOL Kalegran Limited (a 100% subsidiary of MOL Hungarian Oil and Gas plc.) and Texas Keystone Inc., which have working interests of 20% and 5% respectively.
· Gulf Keystone plans to move into the large-scale phased development of the Shaikan field targeting 100,000 bopd of production capacity during Phase 1 of the Shaikan Field Development Plan.

bzw. detailierter unter http://ir1.euroinvestor.com/asp/ir/GulfKeystone/NewsRead.asp…

wichtigstes kurzfristiges Ziel: GKP muss liquider werden dh die Zahlungen vom verkauften Öl von den Kurden bekommen

[Eulenfoerster]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 49.513.559 von texas2 am 08.04.15 07:27:28

Bei Übernahme gehe ich von den ganzen Reservoire seitens GKP aus. Das müssten doch 9 Mrd. barrel sein m.W.. Somit mal 5$ pro Barrel auch von iii so ausgerechnet sollte GKP ein Übernahmeangebot von 45 Mrd. $ wert sein.

Klar, es dürften ein paar Milliardchen weniger sein, aber das wären sie wert.

Für mich ein glasklarer Kauf! Werde aufstocken !

[texas2]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 49.494.419 von Eulenfoerster am 04.04.15 00:05:37

von iii

You are correct that, using the recovery rates that are frequently discussed, one gets a range of estimated recoverable oil attributable to GKP that centres around 1.88 billion barrels. This would imply recoverable oil in the field as a whole of around 3.5 billion bbls. Interestingly enough, this is also consistent with GKP's own long term production target of around 400,000 bbls/day.

My own view, for what it's worth, is that this would be a great outcome, and it is also very achievable from a technical standpoint if nature is not unkind to us.

However, I fear that the appropriate value to apply to those 1.88 billion bbls is not $20/bbl. The reason is not lifting costs, but rather the terms of the production-sharing contract (PSC). Bear in mind that if you have reserves in the US, you will probably be paying some royalties to the land owner and perhaps others, and your lifting costs may be higher, but all the oil is yours. You just have to pay the royalties and lifting costs, and then pay normal US taxes (after deducting your exploration and development costs). So with oil around $100 per barrel, it is easy to see how your netback at the wellhead, after all costs and taxes, can be well in excess of $30/bbl.

But in Kurdistan the oil belongs to the government (whether the KRG or Iraqi) and GKP gets paid via a PSC where its share is around 30% until costs are recovered twice over (the so-called R-factor) after which it falls to around 15%. And this is after a 10% royalty to the KRG off the top. The costs of exploration and development, large as they are, should be recovered quite quickly (and those costs would need to be factored into a net present value calculation anyway). So the value of most of the production to GKP, after cost recovery and assuming those low lifting costs, is likely to be around $12-13/bbl assuming a $100/bbl oil price.

GKP then has to pay a 40% "infrastructure payment" to the KRG, reducing its net receipt to around $8/bbl, in the $100/bbl oil price world.

Things are much the same for Genel. Their infrastructure payment commitment is only 30%, but their PSC terms are otherwise generally similar. This is why, as I recall, they have said that in the current price environment they expect a long term realisation in the range of $9/bbl; and this is why the valuation used in the original Genel merger was between $5-6/bbl -- allowing for the net present value aspect. I think a similar value was ascribed to Addax's interest in TaqTaq at the time Addax was bought by the Chinese. So even though GKP's terms may not be quite as good as Genel's, I think this is probably a good place to start thinking about Shaikan's value.

This would still value GKP's interest in Shaikan in the region of $10 billion based on $100/bbl oil, if the expected recovery factor and export economics can be proved up. This is still pretty good!

Cheers, TM

[Eulenfoerster]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 49.491.272 von texas2 am 03.04.15 09:22:22

Interessante Sichtweise

Dennoch,Fakt ist, Exxon und die Chinesen haben ein Auge auf die Ölfelder von GKP geworfen. Multipliziert man die Ressourcen mit 5$ pro Barrel, so ergäbe sich ein realistischer Wert von ca 45 Mrd.$. Mehr als das hundertfache am jetzigen Wert. Das kann sich Exxon als auch die Chinesen leisten. Ein Bietergefecht wird es allemal auf ein zweistelliges Mrd.-Sümmchen treiben. Aber noch warten sie wohl alle auf eine bessere Lage im Irak, wobei die ISIS schon ausgespielt hat in meinen Augen.

Der Aktienkurs ist definitiv übeertrieben gefallen in meinen Augen, den wo sollen die Risiken für die Investoren stecken ausser den ständigen Verwässerungen?

[texas2]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 49.491.272 von texas2 am 03.04.15 09:22:22

PS:
- habe die Türken (die mit den Kurden über Jahrzehnte bewaffnete Konflikte haben) vergessen über deren Land das kurdische/irakische Öl zum Exporthafen geht und damit ebenfalls wichtige Mitspieler, die den GKP Kurs beeinflussen können.