Wann und wie kommt der nächste Crash? (Seite 13)

[Marktstratege]

Jetzt wollen alle mit einen mal raus, dass sieht beim DAX schon nach Panikverkäufen aus!?

[Marktstratege]

Der schlimmste Crash??

Wird das der schlimmste Crash der Menscheitsgeschichte??

DAX steht zu hoch, deutsche Werte sind nicht mehr so gefragt, somit werden Vw & Co Aktien des Gesamten DAX abgestoßen, Commerzban und alle Banken so wie so, Bankenpleiten usw..

Die Aktien der DAX Unternehmen, werden bestimmt bald sehr billig, keiner will sie mehr haben, alle schmeißen jetzt alles raus, ich rechne mit weiteren Panikverkäufen, weltweit.
Vielleicht sind diese Unternehmen auch gar nicht mehr viel wert, bei dieser Politik??

[faultcode]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 73.493.587 von faultcode am 16.03.23 22:49:47

Keine Bailouts (über X EUR) mehr in der EURO-Zone? Eher nicht mMn.

16.3.
FT: European regulators criticise US ‘incompetence’ over Silicon Valley Bank collapse
Critics label handling of Californian lender’s failure a ‘disaster’ and claim Washington is failing to adhere to global rules
https://www.ft.com/content/5e4a8dde-c053-4510-8cd9-8aecb9082…
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Europe’s financial regulators are furious at the handling of the Silicon Valley Bank collapse, privately accusing US authorities of tearing up a rule book for failed banks that they had helped to write.

While the disapproval has yet to be conveyed in a formal setting, some of the region’s top policymakers are seething over the decision to cover all depositors at SVB, fearing it will undermine a globally agreed regime. One senior eurozone official described their shock at the “total and utter incompetence” of US authorities, particularly after a decade and a half of “long and boring meetings” with Americans advocating an end to bailouts.

Europe’s supervisors are particularly irate at the US decision to break with its own standard of guaranteeing only the first $250,000 of deposits by invoking a “systemic risk exception” — despite claiming the California-based lender was too small to face rules aimed at preventing a rerun of the 2008 global financial crisis.

“This is the US version of the small Venetian banks,” said one French policy expert, referring to the US’s criticism of Europe’s handling of the failure of Banca Vicenza and Veneto Banca in 2017, where senior bondholders were protected from losses.

“You are always systemic for somebody.” => so ist es
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Daher glaube ich, daß sich einige EURO-Europäer hier zu wichtig machen, bis es wieder eine etwas größere Bank in der EURO-Zone erwischt. Dann möchte ich mal sehen, welche (Regional-)Politiker, die wiedergewählt werden möchten, "No Bailout!" rufen

[faultcode]

U.S. FED assets:


https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/163647987936446054…

[faultcode]

March 13, 2023
Monetary Tightening and U.S. Bank Fragility in 2023: Mark-to-Market Losses and Uninsured Depositor Runs?
--> PDF (20 Seiten): https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4387676


Last Updated: March 15, 2023 at 4:23 p.m. ET
Academic study flags 186 banks vulnerable to a run like Silicon Valley Bank
Bank fragility is tied to the type of assets held on balance sheets being worth less partly because of rising interest rates
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/banks-market-value-of-asse…
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A new academic study on 2023 bank fragility concludes that 186 U.S. banks remain vulnerable to a run on deposits that doomed Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and Silvergate bank in the past week.

The paper by four professors concludes that the U.S. banking system’s market value of assets is $2 trillion lower than suggested by their book value of assets accounting for loan portfolios held to maturity.

“Marked-to-market bank assets have declined by an average of 10% across all the banks, with the bottom fifth percentile experiencing a decline of 20%, according to the study, which was released Monday.

Erica Xuewei Jiang of University of Southern California, Gregor Matvos of Northwestern University’s Kellogg School of Management, Tomasz Piskorski of Columbia Business School, and Amit Seru of Stanford University authored the 20-page study of uninsured deposits at banks.

The professors found 186 banks with a negative insured deposit coverage ratio. Banks in this bucket could be putting insured deposits at risk.

The study did not name the banks or take into account the role of the Fed’s new Bank Term Funding Program, which was announced this past weekend.
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Some of the key issues that caused the demise of Silicon Valley Bank are also present in many U.S. banks.

The exception with Silicon Valley Bank, however, was its “disproportionate” share of funding from uninsured deposits. In this category, only 1% of banks had higher uninsured leverage than Silicon Valley Bank, the study said.

However, 10% of banks have larger unrecognized losses than Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and 10% of banks have lower capitalization than SVB.

[faultcode]

14.3. -- 10:35 PM
Wells Fargo files for $9.5B mixed shelf offering
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/wells-fargo-files-…
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=> nicht bullish mMn trotz "The filing does not necessarily indicate that a sale has begun or will occur in the future."

[faultcode]

Yield Curve Plays

Geschichte wiederholt sich bekanntlich nicht, sie reimt sich nur. Außer an Finanzmärkten. Da wiederholt sich Geschichte manchmal nahezu 1:1. Aus diesem Anlaß zur Wiedervorlage:


UPDATED: December 10, 2019
Here’s how Orange County went broke 25 years ago
How could a rich place like us go bankrupt? Hubris and greed didn’t help.
https://www.ocregister.com/2019/12/06/heres-how-orange-count…
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Citron countered with a message of calm. He’d hold securities until they matured. All would be well.
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Over the next quarter century, the county’s finances — and the way governments are financed nationally — would change. Orange County would be the poster child for inept fiscal management.
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O.C. = Orange County


Robert Citron, der langjährige Treasurer-Tax Collector von Orange County (1960, 1970 - 1994) starb 2013 mit 87 Jahren: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Citron
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The Orange County funds, managed by Citron, were worth $8 billion.[7] However, Citron went out to the repo market and leveraged the County Pools to amounts ranging from 158% to over 292%. To obtain this degree of leverage, he used treasury bonds as collateral. Profits of the fund were excessive for a period of time and Citron resorted to concealing the excess earnings.
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Although regulators and the county's financial counterparties had already begun scrutinizing Citron's risky investment strategy as early as 1992, following an article in the trade publication, Derivatives Week, the county's finances did not begin to unravel until early 1994.[8]
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Citron was sentenced to one year of work release and five years of supervised probation, and performed 1,000 hours of community service.[12][13] He served a year in prison, where he was allowed to work in the commissary.[14]


Yield Curve Plays:
aus: Options, futures, and other derivatives, John C. Hull, 8th ed., 2012:



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Seite 782:
Take the Risk Limits Seriously
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The classic example here is Orange County. Robert Citron’s activities in 1991–93 had been very profitable for Orange County, and the municipality had come to rely on his trading for additional funding. People chose to ignore the risks he was taking because he had produced profits. Unfortunately, the losses made in 1994 far exceeded the profits from previous years.
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=> und nur zur Gretchenfrage: hat die Silicon Valley Bank, und vielleicht nicht nur die, in den letzten Jahren vielleicht auch etwas Ähnliches gemacht, zumindest teilweise, so wie im oberen Teil in der grauen Box beschrieben?

[faultcode]

13.3.
Nomura Predicts Rate Cut and QT Halt at Upcoming Fed Meeting
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nomura-predicts-rate-cut-qt-1…
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“In reaction to looming financial stability risks, we now expect the Fed to cut rates,” Nomura economists Aichi Amemiya and Jacob Meyer wrote Monday in a note. “We also expect the Fed to stop quantitative tightening,” they added, noting that “ending QT should help keep the amount of reserves more ample than they would be otherwise.”

The Fed, in concert with other regulators, rolled out measures over the weekend including a backstop for bank deposits to shore up confidence in the banking system after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank on Friday.

“However, judging by the market’s reaction, financial markets seem to view these policy actions as insufficient, as stock prices for the US financial sector continue to decline as of this writing,” Amemiya and Meyer said.

“It is possible the Fed may create a new lending facility by either offering a wider eligibility of collateral assets or broader access for borrowers through an emergency lending facility,” they said.
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[faultcode]

https://twitter.com/IBD_ECarson/status/1635370633986215936

[faultcode]

Last Updated: March 13, 2023 at 7:39 a.m. ET
SVB’s rescue means the Fed won’t hike rates in March, says Goldman Sachs
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/svbs-rescue-means-the-fed-…
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Onto our call of the day from Goldman Sachs, where economists say the rescue of SVB and other depositors will tie the Fed’s hands next week.
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“In light of recent stress in the banking system, we no longer expect the FOMC to deliver a rate hike at its March 22 meeting with considerable uncertainty about the path beyond March,” said a team led by chief economist Jan Hatzius in a note to clients late Sunday.

Hatzius and Co. had expected a 25-basis point hike next week. “We have left unchanged our expectation that the FOMC will deliver 25bp hikes in May, June and July and now expect a 5.25-5.5% terminal rate, though we see considerable uncertainty about the path,” they said.

They clearly aren’t alone as Fed fund futures indicate the chances of the Fed hiking interest rates by 50 basis points next week have fallen from 70% to zero in recent days.
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Capital Economics, meanwhile, is siding with Goldman here: “Even if the authorities are successful at putting a firewall around the problems at SVB and Signature Bank, the lags with which policy operates are a reason to adopt a more gradual approach to policy tightening from here,” said Neil Shearing, group chief economist.

Note, Goldman also said that while the Fed has stemmed the panic over SVB and Signature Bank, it remains to be seen whether the FDIC would similarly address other such lenders if they were smaller than the two banks in question.

Last word and perhaps a testiment to nervousness around banks, goes to Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management who told clients this: “We remain least preferred on financials in our US strategy and recommend investors who have above-benchmark weights in global financials (15% of the MSCI ACWI) to revisit their exposure.”
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