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Wal-Mart: Aktuell ein Kauf? (Seite 2)



Begriffe und/oder Benutzer

 

Wal-Mart: Zwingt nicht Amazon, sondern Aldi Wal-Mart in die Knie?
Das Handelsblatt beschreibt, wie Aldi mit der Aldi-typischen Strategie Wal-Mart zunehmend Probleme bereitet (http://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/handel-konsumgueter/…). Mit einer Kombination aus kleinen Märkten, einem überschaubaren Warenangebot und sonstigen Sparmaßnahmen - wie z.B. die Einkaufswägen nur gegen Pfand auszugeben, damit sie wieder zurückgebracht werden und Aldi sich den „Einkaufswagensammler“ spart - setzt Aldi Wal-Mart unter Druck.

Ist Aldi nun der Totengräber von Wal-Mart oder nur ein kleines Ärgernis (von vielen)? Trifft es Wal-Mart ins Mark oder kann Wal-Mart diesen Sturm im Wasserglas in Ruhe abwarten?
Es wird Leon Nicholas zitiert, der Aldi nicht als einziges Problem von Wal-Mart sieht, sondern als ein Problem von vielen, neben Amazon und den Dollarläden. In Summe macht sich das auch bei Wal-Mart bemerkbar „wie tausend (kleine) Schnitte“.

Nachdem der Gewinn je Aktie in den Jahren 2012, 2013 und 2014 um die 5 USD-Marke schwankte, ging er 2015 wieder ungefähr auf das Niveau von 2011 zurück. Trotz des stagnierenden Gewinns wurde die Dividende (leicht) erhöht. Das Ausschüttungsniveau von 43% erreicht damit den höchsten Wert seit 2005. Bei dieser Ausschüttungsquote bleibt natürlich Spielraum für eine weitere stetige Dividendenpolitik. Damit entspricht diese Ausschüttung einer aktuellen Dividende von gut 3%.

Doch ganz untätig scheint Wal-Mart nicht zu sein. Das KBV bewegt sich historisch gesehen seit langem im Bereich zwischen 12 und 15 und liegt aktuell bei 15. Grundsätzlich liegt mit 15 keine Überbewertung vor, vor allem wenn man bedenkt, dass die KGVs von Walgreen, Dollar General und Costco jeweils über 20 liegen. Dennoch ist Wal-Mart aktuell relativ teuer, was natürlich zum einen an dem gesunkenen Gewinn, aber auch an einem Kursanstieg seit Herbst 2015 liegt. Mag sein, dass der Angriff von Aldi nur einer von vielen ist, doch Wal-Mart wehrt sich offensichtlich (erfolgreich?). Es scheint fast so, als wüssten hier manche mehr als andere, denn der Gewinnrückgang in 2015 würde eigentlich auf weiter sinkende Kurse schließen lassen.

10-Jahreschart




Einfaches Einfügen von wallstreet:online Charts: So funktionierts.


Dennoch würde ich aktuell nicht investieren, jedoch bestehende Positionen halten, allein schon der Dividende und der grundsätzlich guten Trendstärke wegen.

Ein ganzes Stück dynamischer ist hingegen Dollar General, wohingegen Costco Wholesales mit einer Dividendenrendite jenseits der 4% lockt. Jetzt müsste nur noch Aldi an der Börse gelistet sein .... ;-)

Somit zwingt weder Aldi noch Amazon Wal-Mart in die Knie, auch wenn beide offensichtlich für viel Ärger sorgen.


Über eine Bewertung mit „Daumen hoch“, jedwede andere Rückmeldung zu diesem Beitrag oder Vormerkungen für mein wikifolio (https://www.wikifolio.com/de/de/wikifolio/sec-love-me-foreve…) freue ich mich sehr!

---------
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vielleicht habe ich zu früh das Handtuch geworfen?:


Amazon and Walmart Battle for Retail’s Future

By Neil Howe, Saeculum Research
July 19, 2017

http://www.mauldineconomics.com/outsidethebox#

The two firms are aggressively scaling up and branching out:
Who will rise as the rest of retail sinks?


Amazon turned heads last month when it acquired Whole Foods for $13.7 billion. On the exact same day, Walmart announced its own $310 million purchase of clothing e-tailer Bonobos. The timing is no coincidence: As the de facto leaders of U.S. retail, Amazon and Walmart are each spending heavily in an attempt to unseat the other. Which company has the advantage? Amazon is a forward-thinking e-commerce heavyweight with many far-flung (if not profitable) business lines. Walmart is unmatched in brick-and-mortar retail, with a surging (if still small) e-commerce business. With the future headed online, investors are betting heavily on Amazon—but is this a mistake?

The two retail giants have been stepping on each other’s toes lately. Amazon’s Whole Foods deal has been widely interpreted as a defensive move against Walmart’s thriving grocery business. Amazon is also playing offense: The company is going after Walmart’s predominately lower-income customer base by offering a discounted Amazon Prime membership to U.S. consumers who rely on government assistance.

Walmart, meanwhile, has been even more aggressive. It all started when Walmart bought e-commerce firm Jet.com for $3.3 billion back in 2016. The company earlier this year rolled out free two-day shipping for all orders over $35, and is testing a pilot program that pays work­ers overtime for delivering packages on their commute home. Walmart is even barring some prospective tech vendors from building apps and services on top of Amazon’s cloud—and is telling its for-hire truck drivers that they cannot haul Amazon goods on the side.

...

Amazon’s utter dominance of e-commerce sets it apart in an era when ever-more sales are moving online. As the leading e-tailer, Amazon has been the largest beneficiary of a massive shift online: Nearly half (43 percent) of all U.S. online retail sales take place on Amazon.com. One key ingredient to this success has been Prime, which now tallies 66 million subscribers—equal to roughly one in five U.S. consumers.

Arguably the company’s greatest strength is its ability to build successful tech-enabled businesses seemingly from scratch. Take cloud computing. In a few short years, Amazon has transformed from a cloud newcomer to the unques­tioned market leader: Fully 57 percent of survey respondents say that their business is currently running appli­cations in Amazon Web Services, 23 percentage points ahead of Microsoft Azure. Meanwhile, Amazon Home Services—a platform on which home­owners can find credentialed experts to carry out a rebuild—is now competing with the likes of Lowe’s and Home Depot. (See 77: “Home Services, At Your Serv­ice.”) In 2012, Amazon even began renting out excess warehouses to create yet another profit stream.

But for all of its success, Amazon has yet to generate much in the way of actual profits. Jeff Bezos is not interested in growing the company’s profit margin, but rather in keeping prices low in order to steadily gain market share—that is, grow faster than its competitors. With a lofty P/E ratio of 187.8, Amazon is clearly benefitting from investors who believe that the company will eventually focus on profitability. Such a huge bet on deferred earnings is fraught with downside risk.

So what’s the argument for Walmart? First, it is still a much larger company, with revenues of nearly half a trillion dollars—nearly four times Amazon’s. That scale alone enables it to put a much bigger squeeze on suppliers than Amazon. Second, Walmart generates a large profit—and generates it today.

...

Walmart’s main revenue driver is its brick-and-mortar retail business, which continues to gain steam amid a collapsing retail space. According to Credit Suisse, 2,800 U.S. brick-and-mortar retail stores closed up shop in Q1 2017, a record full-year pace. Commercial real estate firm CoStar reports that U.S. retailers must eliminate 1 million square feet of brick-and-mortar space just to grow their sales per square foot back to where it was a decade ago. In this low-margin environment, cost efficiency is key—and nobody does cost efficiency better than Walmart, a company that uses its clout to negotiate favorable deals with suppliers and finance its “Everyday Low Prices.” While mall anchors like Macy’s and JC Penney continue to announce store closures, Walmart plans to add 10,000 retail jobs and 59 new/renovated properties by the end of the fiscal year.

...

But this line of thinking may be off the mark. For one, both companies acknowledge that tomorrow’s retail likely will be a blend of online and brick-and-mortar. As TechCrunch columnist Sarah Perez puts it, “Amazon wants to become Walmart before Walmart can become Amazon.” And the fact is that it may be easier—and cheaper—for Walmart to become Amazon. Walmart has already shown that it is willing to spend big on top tech talent. It would be a lot tougher, on the other hand, for Amazon to pour enough concrete to become a brick-and-mortar powerhouse while still maintaining the company’s culture.

...

Both companies may very well outperform the broader market in the years to come. But don’t be surprised if Walmart eventually emerges on top. And even if the homely Bentonville retailer does no more than stick around, that makes it a big long-short winner relative to its Seattle-based rival.


TAKEAWAYS

* Take notice: The Amazon-Walmart rivalry will determine the future of retail. Each firm is making moves in the other’s area of expertise: Amazon bought Whole Foods to scale up in the grocery business, while Walmart is ramping up its own e-commerce capabilities. Which company has the upper hand? Conventional wisdom points to Amazon, which has a dominant foothold in a surging e-commerce space and owns a reputation as a forward-thinking market leader. But the future of retail will likely be a blend of online and brick-and-mortar—which favors Walmart. Why? It may be easier to acquire tech capabilities (i.e., buying talent) than a physical footprint (i.e., building thousands of stores).

* Keep in mind that market “duopolies” can save consumers money. Look at Coca-Cola and PepsiCo, two companies that together control roughly three-quarters of the soda market. Their duopoly status has helped to keep prices lower: The CPI for carbonated beverages has risen less than half as quickly as the CPI for all food since the early 1980s. Similarly, it’s easy to see how the Amazon-Walmart price wars are already benefitting consumers. In February, shoppers had to buy $49 worth of Amazon goods to qualify for free shipping. Today, that same perk costs just $25. Walmart.com shoppers can now save up to 5 percent on more than 1 million items through in-store pickup.

* Expect Amazon and Walmart to continue to play hardball with suppliers. All of these discounts come at a price—to vendors. Walmart recently told suppliers that it wants to offer the lowest price on 80 percent of the products that it sells—a feat that would require some suppliers to shave 15 percent off of their rates. Amazon is equally notorious for its tough negotiations. The company often threatens to boot unprofitable products (known as “CRaP,” short for “can’t realize a profit”) from its virtual store shelves if the vendor won’t budge on prices. Insiders suspect that this is why all Pampers products mysteriously disappeared from Amazon.com earlier this year.

* Keep tabs on the hotly contested grocery market. Today, Walmart controls more than one-quarter of the U.S. grocery market—more than double the share of its closest competitor (Kroger). But an influx of competition, especially from abroad, threatens this market share. German discount chain Lidl recently opened its first U.S. outposts, and its fellow German competitor Aldi is planning a $5 billion, 900-store U.S. expansion. Amazon’s Whole Foods acquisition will further turn up the heat on Walmart—though the move may be far more damaging to Target, which has been trying to get into the fresh grocery game for ages.
Wal-Mart is a cash flow machine but there is challenges ahead: Davidowitz & Associates

http://www.bnn.ca/video/wal-mart-is-a-cash-flow-machine-but-…
How blockchain allows Wal-Mart to trace food back to the source in seconds

https://goo.gl/QUV6Cw
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