Rambus:Kompette Neubewertung KZ 500 - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[Artmann]

Hallo zusammen
Habe gerade im Aktionär einen interresanten Artikel über Rambus gelesen.
Zitat: Analysten gehen jetzt davon aus,daß weitere Chiphersteller folgen werden.Was dies für die Zukunft von Rambus
bedeutet kann sich wohl jeder selber ausmalen.Allein die nächsten Quartalszahlen werden explodieren.
Wir empfehlen Rambus erneut zum Kauf,setzen allerdings auf Grund der riesigen Aussichten keinen Stoppkurs
um nicht wieder ausgestoppt zu werden.
Danach ein Interview mit Fred Hager.Er sieht Rambus bei 500 Dollar.

Artmann

[MrMoe]

Hallo,
die Formulierung:
Zitat: Analysten gehen jetzt davon aus,daß weitere Chiphersteller folgen werden.Was dies für die Zukunft von Rambus
bedeutet kann sich wohl jeder selber ausmalen.Allein die nächsten Quartalszahlen werden explodieren.

ist nicht sehr aufschlußreich - kannst Du das ein wenig ausführen ?

MrMoe

[gen2016]

Hallo, Rambus-Fans!!

Bin neu hier !! Habe Rambus seit Mai 00.
Ich glaube, daß Rambus Zukunft hat und bleibe investiert.

Ich habe die Info, daß Playstation 2 in Europa und USA noch in diesem Herbst auf den Markt gebracht wird. Ist das richtig ?
Wenn ja, sind diese Gewinne schon in den Quartalszahlen berücksichtigt ?

Für Antworten DANKE IM VORAUS !!!!!

[Tetzlaf]

Hallo gen2016,
sag bloß die P2 ist mit Rambus Speicher ausgestattet?
Hab ich ja noch nie gehört.
Ich habe aber auch gehört das die Playstation2 hier noch dieses Jahr erscheint, von den USA Release weiss ich nichts.
Ciao

[gen2016]

Hallo, Tetzlaf !!

Playstation 2 arbeitet mit Rambus-Speicher. Das ist bekannt.
Ich könnte mir gut vorstellen, daß sich die Gewinnprognosen für Rambus entsprechend nach oben korrigieren, wenn die Konsole sehr gut läuft.
Wenn Sony mehr als erwartet verkauft, dann verdient Rambus ja auch gleich wieder mit.

Was meint Ihr, Jungs !!!

[Tango-Trip]

Hi Tetzlaf und neue rambianer,
seit nicht zu eiphorisch was den kurzfristigen kurs von rambo anbelangt, ein paar gute news hatten wir ja nun, im kurs enthalten sind die playstation2, ja sogar schon die verdoppelung der produktion
der playst.2 auf 2000000 mio im monat. alles im kurs enthalten. konzentriert euch nicht zu sehr auf rambus sondern ebenso auf ahnliche tenologie, die kommen kann . auch gebe ich zu bedenken was im aktionär steht, vorsicht, da wird viel gepuscht. habe selbst meine erfahrungen mit dem aktionär
machen müssen. haltet den ball flach jungs sonst werdet ihr böse erwachen wenn ihr zu euphorisch an der börse seid. ich will auf keinen fall mein geliebtes kind " rambo" schlecht reden, aber es ist und bleibt eben eine volatiele sache. long ist rambo der knaller 2000 und 2001. gruß Tango-Trip

[gen2016]

Hallo, Tango-Trip !

Du hast sicherlich recht. Man sollte bei solchen Kursexplosionen sehr vorsichtig sein.
In Deinem Posting sprichst Du Technologien an, die Rambus Konkurrenz machen könnten. Welche meinst Du in diesem Zusammenhang ?
Würde mich interessieren.
Rambus hat m. E. einen gewissen Entwicklungsvorsprung. Ein weiterer Vorteil : Die Technnologie ist auch verfügbar. Niemand weiß, was Konkurrenzunternehmen noch hervorzaubern. Doch sollte man nicht vergessen, daß Entwicklung nicht nur Unmengen Geld kosten, sondern auch Zeit. Die Zeit läuft in diesem Fall doch für Rambus.

Das ist nur meine bescheidene Einschätzung !

Für Eure Meinungen und Einschätzungen VIELEN DANK IM VORAUS !!!

[tyx]

Rambus ist nicht billig ...

Ich kann und werde zwar nicht verkaufen, weil mich sonst die Speku-Steuer auffressen würde - aber Rambus ist z.Z. nicht billig.

Nur mal so überschlagshalber.
Wenn man sich den DRAM Markt anschaut, sieht man folgendes.
Laut einer Studie, Quelle siehe unten, beträgt der DRAM Markt 26,7 MRD USD. Wenn 80% (was sehr viel ist !!!) davon mit RMBS-Lizenzgebühren belegt ist wären dies
20,8 MRD USD. Bei 2 % Lizenzgebühren wären dies 416 Mio USD für Rambus. Bei einer Marge von 40 % sind dies 166,4 Mio Gewinn für Rambus.
Bei einer Market Cap. von 10 MRD USD ist dies ein KGV von 60.
Wenn alles so kommt, wie wir alle hoffen. Jeder kann ja mal selbstnachrechnen, wenn die Vorgaben anders aussehen.
Dann hätten wir schnell ein mittleres dreistelliges KGV.

Dazu kommen natürlich die Einnahmen aus der neuen Technologie, die jedoch mehr in Netzwerksystemen (Router, Switche) eingesetzt wird.
Wie groß der Markt ist, weiß ich nicht, vielleicht hat ja da jemand Zahlen.

Der PC-Markt ist jedoch na meiner Pi-mal-Daumen-Rechnung schon in der aktuellen Marktkap. enthalten.

Wenn jemand andere Zahlen hat, her damit!
Durch den starken Anstieg in den letzten Monaten ist Rambus zum Depot-Schwergewicht aufgestiegen .
Jede Info ist also hilfreich.


*******************


Monday June 26, 9:33 am Eastern Time

Forbes.com
Rambus Feeling Its Oats
By Arik Hesseldahl

It used to be such a quiet company. But in recent months Rambus has gone from being the quiet force behind the design of
computer memory technology to a booming voice that has shaken the semiconductor industry to its very foundations.

It`s a curious turn of events for a company that doesn`t make anything itself. Mountain View, Calif.-based Rambus (Nasdaq:
RMBS - news) makes its money, $8.7 million in profits on revenue of $43.3 million last year, by selling ideas for the design of
computer memory technology to chip manufacturers.

Its technology is the basis for a new memory interface technology known as Direct Rambus DRAM, which speeds the ability of a computer`s main processor to talk
to the memory. Most computers now use a type of memory known as synchronous DRAM, or SDRAM. But as speed of processors from companies like Intel
(Nasdaq: INTC - news) has climbed ever upward, the speed at which those processors can talk to the main memory has not kept up. Intel says that its next
generation processor, codenamed Willamette, will work exclusively with Rambus` RDRAM technology and nothing else.

But now in what is proving to be a controversial gambit, Rambus is claiming ownership of some of the fundamental patents to not only its RDRAM technology, but
also to some patents related to conventional SDRAM and to a another next-generation memory technology known as Double Data Rate DRAM, which some
companies are backing as an alternative to RDRAM.

Rambus claims it is entitled to royalty payments from companies making either type of computer memory, and if its claims are borne out--and there is a good chance
they will be--it will essentially become the gatekeeper to the computer memory industry, earning a royalty on all the DRAM chips shipped Cahners. In-Stat Group, a
Scottsdale, Ariz. based market research firm has estimated the overall DRAM market as being worth $26.7 billion this year.

While the exact terms of each royalty and licensing agreement between Rambus and the various memory manufacturers are confidential, some reports have
suggested they could be as much as 1% to 2% for each RDRAM chip sold, and Rambus has said that the royalty for DDR chips would be higher than that. The
news has also sent Rambus stock soaring, as investors see huge dollar signs at the prospect of the intellectual property firm owning a little piece of every PC memory
chip shipped regardless of its type. Shares in Rambus opened Friday more than $22 higher than Thursday`s close just of $97.13.

So far, two memory manufacturers have surrendered to Rambus` patent demands. Japan`s Hitachi last Thursday settled a series of Rambus lawsuits in the U.S. and
Germany by agreeing to pay a quarterly royalty for all three types of memory. Hitachi did not admit to having infringed any Rambus patents. The settlement followed
a similar deal with Toshiba, another Japanese company.

The two deals may have set a precedent that could ultimately force other memory manufacturers to start coughing up royalty payments to Rambus no matter what
kind of PC memory they make.

The list of companies that could end up paying huge royalties to Rambus include Micron Technology (NYSE: MU - news), Infineon Technologies (NYSE: IFX -
news), Samsung and NEC (Nasdaq: NIPNY - news), among others. No one is quite sure how the rest of the industry will respond to the new royalties, and
Rambus has indicated that it may be in talks with other memory manufacturers to cut similar deals.

``The choices facing the rest of the industry are to do what Toshiba has done or to sit and wait until Rambus does to them what it has done to Hitachi,`` and get sued,
says Steve Cullen, a Boston-based DRAM industry analyst with market research firm Cahners In-Stat Group.

Until recently Rambus has relied on no less than the world`s biggest semiconductor company, Intel, to bend the memory industry to their collective will. A few years
back, when Intel said it needed new, faster memory technology, Rambus was really the only game in town. Intel, with its dominance in PC processors, has more or
less laid down the law to the entire industry that its next generations of processors--starting with the forthcoming Willamette processor, due this fall--would work
only with Rambus DRAM.

While some memory makers, notably Korea`s Samsung, fell right into lockstep with the Intel-Rambus party line, other memory makers have accepted Rambus, but
not without a lot of complaints about having to pay royalties. Many have also pursued DDR, much to the chagrin of Rambus.

``The memory companies don`t like the royalty model and don`t want to be paying anyone for products they develop by themselves,`` says Dean McCarron, an
analyst with Mercury Research, a Scottsdale, Ariz.-based semiconductor market research firm. ``While with Rambus memory they got some help, each one still
views the products they develop as unique. These companies signed on with Rambus because of Intel`s influence.``

And building memory chips using Rambus technology is expensive. The RDRAM chips themselves are larger, and therefore costlier, than the conventional SDRAM
memory typically found in today`s PCs, and manufacturing yields (the number of functioning chips versus defective chips) for RDRAM chips tend to be lower than
for SDRAM, making the entire prospect of manufacturing Rambus memory an overall painful prospect.

But Rambus is beginning to see a serious challenge from the DDR camp. Like RDRAM, DDR technology lets a processor talk to a PC`s memory faster than before
but is easier and more cost efficient to manufacture. Micron and Infineon are two of DDR`s biggest boosters, but they are also licensed by Rambus to make
RDRAM. Intel`s main rival in the PC processor business, Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE: AMD - news) is also strong in the DDR camp. Its Athlon processor
will support both SDRAM and DDR, but not Rambus DRAM.

``DDR is gaining a lot of momentum,`` says Mario Morales, a semiconductor analyst with International Data Corp. in Mountain View, Calif. ``The market is
beginning to shift away from Rambus because of DDR. There is no question that Rambus is feeling threatened. Their success is now questionable.``

Yet while Rambus-based PCs are available now, PC manufacturers are for the most part still working on bringing DDR to their systems. That has Rambus nervous
and explains why it is pressing so hard to exact tribute from makers of all three types of memory.

``While we don`t see DDR as an effective competitor to RDRAM, the intent is clear, and so we determined that the royalty on DDR should be higher than for
RDRAM,`` says Rambus vice president Avo Kanadjian.

But struggles between DDR and RDRAM aside, Rambus stands to win no matter what. Should RDRAM ultimately turn out to be a technological turkey, Rambus is
banking its future on collecting royalties on all types of computer memory no matter what the flavor. Rambus may end up with their hands in all of them.

``Hitachi and Toshiba are both very competent companies,`` says In-Stat`s Steven Cullen. ``If those two have settled, there`s a good chance that most others will
decide not to fight Rambus on these patents either.``

[tyx]

Was man im Internet nicht so alles findet
Da hat sich jemand ähnliche Gedanken gemacht, hat sich aber mehr Mühe gegeben als ich

Ich stelle es mal einfach hier rein ....


The DRAM field is a "cyclical secular" - strong ups and downs modulate powerful underlying growth. DataQuest, which has the best track record in forecasting
the industry, predicted in late 1999 that the DRAM market would be $29 billion in 2000 and $70 billion in 2002. Rambus was predicted to have a 10% share in
2000 and a 50% share by 2002. However actual DRAM sales are exceeding predictions. The most recent projections are for a $36 billion market in 2000 ($3.6
billion Rambus). The world`s largest memory maker, and biggest producer of Rambus products, Samsung, now predicts a $38 billion market for Rambus`s
RDRAM by 2002.

DRAM market $36 billion in 2000 (6/15/00)
http://www.ebnews.com/digest/story/OEG20000617S0002

Samsung estimates Rambus production, June 22, 2000
http://www.koreaherald.co.kr/news/2000/06/__10/20000623_1029…

The recent settlements by Toshiba and Hitachi suggest that Rambus will be able to charge royalty on ALL DRAM, whether RDRAM (Rambus DRAM) or not.

Valuing Rambus: By 2001, Rambus will trade on 2002 earnings. The royalty Rambus collects (pure profit) is about 1.5% on RDRAM, 1.25% on SDRAM and
higher on DDR (such as Nvida graphic cards). In addition, Rambus collects higher royalties on the DRAM controllers (3-5%, although these are cheaper). As a
result, Rambus earns about 3% on DRAM sales, half from controllers. The latter half is often conveniently ignored by Rambus skeptics. Since the DRAM market
is currently running 20% ahead of projections, I will up the 1999 projection of $70 billion in 2002 by 20%.
***********
3% of $84 billion x (0.6 because 40% go to taxes) = $1.51 billion. Divide by 100 million shares and estimated 2002 earnings are $15.10/share after taxes.
Contract fees from licenses adds perhaps $0.50/share. Total: $15.60/share in 2002.
*****************

If the legal victories hold up, Rambus will have a monopoly more widespread and more complete than Microsoft or Intel. What should a company earning
$15.60/share after taxes in 2002 be worth in 2001? With high margins, high barriers to competition, and rapid growth, perhaps 40 times forward earnings, or
$624 share.

Key variables:
(1) Growth rate of DRAM market notoriously hard to estimate.
(2) Non-RDRAM products like serializer/deserializer sold by PMC-Sierra are not counted in the above. These are currently small but fast growing markets.
(3) Recent legal victories might take months or even years to encompass entire industry. It is possible but unlikely that established precedents could be overturned.
(4) Future market share of Rambus still controversial (which won`t matter if RMBS continues to win legal battles). Samsung (the world`s most successful memory
manufacturer) and DataQuest have more credibility here than any analyst.



Valuing Rambus: Part 2 of 3

A useful price estimate for Rambus requires estimating three factors:
(1) The probability that RMBS will take a large and growing percentage of the DRAM market - or else win the legal rights to the existing market (or both).
(2) The size of the DRAM market
(3) How fast the DRAM market is growing.

Simply because Rambus grows 100 fold (or more) in a year does not make RMBS worth a forward P/E of 100 or 200, if that implies a price target higher than if
Rambus owned the whole market. Suppose hypothetically that the DRAM market was fixed at 1999`s $20 billion. Then the most RMBS could get from royalties
would be 1.5% x $20 billion /100 million shares x 2 (for controllers) x 0.6 (taxes) = $3.60/share. Since earnings would be stagnant, forward P/E should be 10, so
a price of about 10 x $3.60 or $36 would be appropriate (well below present value). Even if RMBS growth went from 0.5% to 50% (100 fold growth), no price
higher than about $36 would be reasonable. The market always looks forward (or eventually does anyway) to see the future stagnation.

But in fact the DRAM market is growing fast; indeed faster than the most optimistic estimates. When a 1999 DataQuest estimate put the CY 2000 DRAM
market at $29 billion and the 2002 market at $70 billion, many PC-centric observers couldn`t believe it. The PC industry is by far the largest user of DRAM, and
it is growing only about 10-20% a year. DataQuest must be wrong many averred.
Yet as of June 2000, it is clear DataQuest actually underestimated the strength of the growth (as did the DRAM companies themselves). CY 2000 now looks to
be $36 billion, while also in June Samsung (the world`s largest and most successful DRAM maker) estimated that the 2002 market will be about $76 billion, half
RDRAM.
This dramatic upswing has a powerful effect on the worth of Rambus. If the DRAM industry were growing by the, say, 15% (and maybe slowing) of the PC
industry, then a fair valuation of RMBS would use a forward P/E of about 15-30 (once RMBS gets a large fraction of the market). If the market is growing at
better than a 25% pace as appears to be the case, then a forward P/E of 25-50 is quite reasonable.
(Aside: since RMBS collects royalties without doing the manufacturing, all these estimates assume RMBS employees do nothing except sit around making bonfires
out of the cash that pours in. Tstorey-98 and others have commented on this. Rambus may find a better plan).
The key point is too understand why the DRAM market is growing so fast, and whether it is likely to continue.


Valuing Rambus: Part 3 of 3

The PC market has the biggest share of DRAM sales, but is probably the slowest growing segment. Here are some others.

(1) DSPs/small process control processors. Originally DSPs (Digital Signal Processors) were used for audio and video signals, and to perform certain
mathematical algorithms fast. They still are, but there is an increasing trend for DSPs to show up everywhere. Think of them as a pint-sized CPU or chipset. An
example of how they are spreading is that Analog Devices recently convinced Whirlpool to use a DSP in blenders to save energy controlling the motors. The
market is already large, and is growing by better than 30% a year. InStat and others have estimated that in the next 5-10 years this will be a bigger business than
the PC market. Tiny processors might appear in a hundred places - or a thousand - in your home eventually, controlling almost everything electronic. Sun is
hoping to break into this market with its new MAJC - which uses Rambus. Note however that SUNW is not currently a major player in this market. TI,
Motorola, Analog Devices and DSP (the company) are major players. All currently use plain SDRAM. This is the biggest long term gold mine out there if it
continues to grow as predicted, and if RMBS wins royalties either through legal means or by the adoption of RDRAM.

(2) Internet consoles/game players/DVD. Rambus already is in PlayStation 2, predicted to dominate the market. Enough said.

(3) Fiber optic storage area networks. Brocade dominates this market, currently a few billion, but expected to grow to tens of billions in the next few years
(according to Briefing.com). Brocade`s Silkworm uses RDRAM.

(4) Network connectors. Specifically, the next generation of OC-192 may have to use Rambus, although IBM is hoping to make 200 MHz DDR ("Dumbed
Down Rambus") work. This is a large, fast growing, but currently fragmented market. Rambus already has a small stake through companies like Vitesse,
SwitchCore and PixelFuzion. Other companies are still using made to order SRAM (static RAM) parts which cost 10 times what RDRAM does. Rambus is also
hoping to make an impact through its new QRSL (Quad Rambus Signal Logic).

Short term the biggest driver of RMBS profits will be the Williamette (or settlements with SDRAM makers and users). But PC sales alone could never make
RMBS "the next Cisco" or Microsoft. For RMBS to be the stock of the 00s, instead of just a stock that was undervalued at the start of 2000, DRAM usage will
have to continue to spread far beyond the PC. Fortunately, that appears to be happening, and at a pace faster than the most optimistic estimates.

[Tango-Trip]

Hi gen2016,
zur zeit sehe ich auch keine gefahr durch eine bestimmte technik, ich meine nur man sollte die möglichkeit nicht außer acht lassen wenn man long ist. vorsicht war schon immer die mutter der porzellankiste.
gruß Tango-Trip

[gen2016]

Hallo, Tango-Trip !

Ich stimme Dir voll und ganz zu ! Man darf bei aller Begeisterung für Rambus nicht vergessen, daß es ein spekulatives Investment ist.

Ich denke aber, daß Rambus mit den Zugeständnissen aus den asiatischen Lagern (Hitachi und Toshiba) einen sehr entscheidenden Schritt nach vorn gemacht hat.

Genau diesen hat es gebraucht. Mit dem Prozeß gegen Hitachi hat Rambus gezeigt, daß es Verletzungen seiner Technologie nicht tolerieren wird.
Eine Frage, die ich mir schon lange stelle, ist : Warum fördert Intel eigentlich die Rambus-Technologie und warum will AMD von Rambus nichts wissen. Ich habe bisher noch nicht gehört, daß sie von AMD genutzt wird. Ich könnte mir vorstellen, daß AMD die Lizenzgebühren einfach nicht zahlen möchte ????? Vielleicht kannst Du mir eine Info dazu geben ?

Die Frage richte ich natürlich an alle Ramboianer !!!!

Grüße gen 2016

[mifeld]

Soweit ich weiß, hat AMD einen Lizenzvertrag mit Rambus, nutzt ihn zur Zeit nur noch nicht.

[messias]

ihr habt schon viel diskutiert, nur mal ganz kurz meine durchaus kritisch
zu betrachtende meinung zum thema Rambus im Aktionär:

net 500, dausend!!!

[Tango-Trip]

Hi mifeld hi gen2016 und andere ramboaner,
ich bin mir nicht ganz sicher, aber ich glaube AMD war immer gegen dieses kaufmännische knebeltaktikgeschäftsgebaren von intel,( nicht nur ein schönes wort, sondern hat auch schon viel gebracht ) deshalb weigern sie sich wohl bis zum schluß. ich möchte keine empfehlung geben, aber ich bin ebenfalls in AMD investiert, im gegensatz zu intel ist AMD eine kleine firma, und die kleinen wollen nach oben wenn ihr versteht was ich meine. aber keine angst, amd ist nur eine kleine beimischung in meinem depot, so ca. 4 % Gruß TT

[gen2016]

Hi, mifeld !

Das habe ich auch gehört ! AMD hat wohl einen Lizenzvertrag. Ich habe allerdings keine Ahnung, warum sie die Technologie nicht einsetzen.
Einerseits sichern sie sich die Nutzungsrechte, andererseits nutzen sie sie nicht.
Ich könnte mir vorstellen, daß Rambus einen sehr hohen finanziellen Aufwand (Gebühren !!!) für AMD darstellt, den sie nur sehr schwer verkraften könnten. AMD hat bei weitem nicht die Liquidität, die Intel besitzt.
Ich tippe mal, daß sich AMD mit der Lizensierung von Rambus die Hintertür für ihre Prozessoren offenhält für den Fall, daß Intel mit dem Rambus-Speicher geschwindigkeitsmäßig davonzieht.

Das ist allerdings eine reine Spekulation von mir !
Hoffe auf Eure Anregungen, Meinungen und Schätzungen !!

Grüße gen2016

[gen2016]

Hallo, Tango-Trip !

Es ist natürlich klar, daß AMD nicht die Absicht hat Intel zusätzlich noch die Kassen zu füllen, indem es Rambus einsetzt. Intel hat wohl eine gewisse Beteilligung an Rambus in Form von Optionen. Hast Du davon auch schon gehört ? Wäre gut zu wissen.
Das würde dann natürlich erklären, warum AMD der letzte ist, der Rambus nutzen wird.
Ich denke, daß Du Dich mit diesen beiden Investments ganz gut abgesichert hast. Gewinnt Rambus, dann ist das für AMD zwar teuer, aber sie werden daran nicht kaputtgehen. Setzt sich Rambus nicht durch, dann gehe ich davon aus, daß Intel eine Menge Geld verlieren würde und AMD Marktanteile gut macht. Wie spekulierst Du darüber ?

Grüße gen 2016

[Peier]

Hallo RAMBUS-Aktionäre!
Jetzt mal ehrlich... Der Aktionär ist ja wenigstens die einzige mir
bekannte deutsche Aktienzeitschrift, die sich mit RAMBUS beschäftigt,
aber ich erinnere nach die vor Optimismus schreienden Berichte aus März oder Februar: "..unter 300 e sind klare Kaufkurse bla, bla"
Die Leute, die dann bei 300 e eingestiegen sind, werden sich ein paar
Wochen später bedankt haben, als der Kurs bei 160 e stand. Da war plötzlich nichts mehr zu lesen über RAMBUS bei Förtsch. Jetzt legt die Aktie nach dem Split kräftig zu - und schon klinkt Förtsch sich wieder ein, und dann noch mit einer so vagen Aussage wie "... wir setzen diesmal keinen Stopkurs..."......d.h. doch soviel wie "ich weiß auch nicht.. vielleicht fällt der Kurs auch wieder, vielleicht auch nicht..." Ich persönlich bin zu 78.5 e (wohlgemerkt VOR dem Split ) eingestiegen, insofern gut im Plus....aber man ist ja nie zufrieden! Man bekommt auch seit dem 26.6.00 keinerlei Nachrichten mehr über Rambus! Was ist jetzt? Fällt der Kurs jetzt erstmal wieder auf 40 e zurück, wann äußern sich Micron Tech., sind die Quartalszahlen nächster Woche schon beim Höchstkurs von 135 USD eingepreist worden, wann ist mal wieder ein Schub von zumindest 20 %
zu erwarten, wann schließt sich das nächste Unternehmen Toschiba und
Hitachi und welches wird es sein ? Wer weiß mehr?

[koarlmoik]

Hallo,
dieser Artikel ist aufgetaucht:
http://www.chinaweb.com/english/cw_html/itnews/technology_pr…
Gleichzeitig beteuert VIA auf seine Homepage die unumstürzliche
Ausrichtung auf DDR. Sollte der obige Artikel keine Ente sein,
zeigt das wieder einmal, daß Treueschwüre im Chipgeschäft keinen
Schuß Pulver wert sind.

[BörsenkennerCgn]

26.06.2000
Rambus "strong buy"
Morgan Stanley Dean Witter


Analyst Mark Edelstone von Morgan Stanley Dean Witterstuft die Aktie der Rambus Inc. (WKN 906870) auf „strong buy“ herauf.

Das erneuerte und erweiterte Lizenzabkommen mit Toshiba bewertet der zuständige Analyst und Technologieexperte als sehr positiv, da der Deal mit dem japanischen Technologiekonzern eine langfristige Gewinnphantasie bei geringem Risiko in das auf die Beschleunigung von Datentransfers fokussierte US-Unternehmen bringe. Ebenso sei der Analyst davon überzeugt, dass der Halbleitermarkt in Zukunft stärker auf die Technologie von Rambus setzen werde.

Die Einstufung als „strong buy“ sei daher gerechtfertigt, so die Expertenmeinung.

[tyx]

Für diejenigen, die Rambus noch nicht so gut kennen, eine interessante Zusammenfassung:


Analysis: RAMBUS, A Burgeoning Semiconductor Powerhouse
by Adam Schwebel

Company Basics
Rambus is a semiconductor design house. The company employs a much different business strategy than other
better-known semiconductor companies such as Intel, Motorola, Texas Instruments, and Samsung. The company makes
high-speed chip-to-chip interfaces. Currently, the focus has been on memory interfaces, but within the next few years a
much wider variety of products using RAMBUS` high-speed interfaces will be introduced. The company was
incorporated in 1990 by two Stanford electrical engineers, Mark Horowitz and Michael Farmwald. The company went
public on the NASDAQ on May 14, 1997 under the ticker symbol RMBS. Since its inception, RAMBUS has been
awarded 95 patents covering fundamental aspects of chip-to-chip interfaces; over 90 are still being reviewed by the
Patent Bureaus. The first widespread adopter of RAMBUS technology was Nintendo. The Nintendo 64 utilizes
RAMBUS` first generation high-speed interface technology. Since then, Sony has employed it in its PlayStation2 game
console. Direct RAMBUS, the company`s second-generation technology, is employed in order to meet the high
bandwidth requirements of the advanced graphics engine. The third, and most lucrative to date, platform RAMBUS`
technology is consumed is in PC systems. Since late 1999, Intel has enabled the use of Direct RAMBUS in its Pentium
III line of microprocessor-based systems. In addition, many networking companies (the likes of Vitesse, PMC Sierra,
and Brocade) and other computer manufacturers (SUN Microsystems and Compaq ALPHA) have designed RAMBUS
technology in their future products, however, very few are currently shipping.

Papa Intel
On November 15, 1996, RAMBUS entered into a vast licensing agreement with Intel Corporation. The terms of this
agreement, which have been amended, are somewhat of a mystery. What is known is that Intel agreed to employ and
promote the technology in its products as best it could. If Intel were to ship 20% (twenty percent) of its chipsets in two
consecutive quarters, the company would be rewarded handsomely. The allotment of 1,000,000 (one million) RMBS
warrants at a strike price of $10.00 per share would be awarded at the completion of the target. Since RMBS split it`s
stock 4:1 on June 14, 2000, Intel`s warrants are now 4,000,000 (four million) at a strike price of $2.50 per share. This
will amount to Intel effectively owning more than 4% (four percent) of RAMBUS. There are some details that can`t be
overlooked. Intel must complete its target by December 31, 2000, otherwise the warrants become invalid. In the
amended filing, the warrants will not be granted to Intel until 12 (twelve) months following the completed quarter in which
the goal of 2 (two) consecutive quarters of 20%+ RAMBUS-compatible chipsets are shipped. If Intel achieves this goal
one new board member, appointed by Intel, will be selected to sit on RAMBUS` Board of Directors for that quarter. In
addition, upon the completion of the target, Intel will be automatically upgraded on its license for RAMBUS patents. If
they meet an unspecified stringent goal, they could get royalty-free access to the patent portfolio for a brief period of
time. Since Intel currently has roughly 80% (eighty percent) market share of the PC space, if 20% (twenty percent) of its
microprocessors were RAMBUS enabled, a large sum of royalties would flow in in the form of chipset memory
controllers (2.5-5% royalty rate) and RDRAM shipments (2-3% royalty rate).

DRAM Industry
In 1998, the DRAM industry was in the doldrums. Nineteen ninety-nine saw the reemergence of growth for the first time
in a few years. This year DRAM will comprise a $29 (twenty-nine) billion market. Next year, the market should see a
large spike upward to $54 (fifty-four) billion dollars. In 2002, we should see a $76 (seventy-six) billion market and a
peak in 2003 at $95 (ninety-five) billion. In the beginning, I said RAMBUS has been focused on their memory interface.
All of the top 13 (thirteen) DRAM manufacturers are licensed for the RAMBUS specification. Well, this year
RAMBUS` DRAM interface (RDRAM) is projected to capture 10% (ten percent) of the $29 billion market. By next
year, I expect RDRAM to explode to take 30% (thirty percent) of the then $54 billion market. But here`s the wildcard,
RAMBUS has demanded royalty payment for ALL high-speed synchronous memory devices and their controllers. The
company firmly believes these devices infringe RAMBUS patents and they should be fairly compensated. Over 95%
(ninety-five percent) of the current market comprises these high-speed memory technologies and it will be higher next
year.

Intellectual Property (IP)…A License to Print Money
RAMBUS engaged Hitachi through litigation, based on their belief that Hitachi and SEGA, who used the Hitachi
products, infringed 8 (eight) key patents. In June of this year, after 5 (five) months, Hitachi agreed with RAMBUS and
obliged to pay an up front settlement fee as well as quarterly royalty payments on SDRAM and DDR SDRAM and the
controllers that interface with these memories. Toshiba has also agreed, albeit not through litigation, to pay these royalties
as well as on their proprietary DDR FCRAM. This is only two of the top 13 DRAM producers, but it is my belief that all
of the remaining 11 (eleven) will sign a similar agreement with RAMBUS, be it through litigation or agreement. The next
manufacturers to sign, in my opinion, will be NEC Corporation and Fujitsu. Once the memory makers are signed,
RAMBUS will receive a 1.0-3.5% royalty on virtually the entire DRAM market! However, I don`t believe RAMBUS
will have all the manufacturers signed up by the end of calendar year 2000 (largely due to ongoing litigation). My
estimates for 2001 are that the company will receive royalties on 65% (sixty-five percent) of the $54 billion DRAM
market. By 2002, I believe the company will receive royalties on virtually the entire market (98%), with its interface
gaining 60% (sixty percent) market share! RDRAM will garner 85% (seventy-five percent) market share by 2003, while
the total market will be $95 billion.

Life beyond DRAM
On December 9, 1999, RAMBUS issued a press release detailing their intentions to expand their patent portfolio and
business scope. In addition to high-speed memory interfaces, the company will pursue other avenues that required
high-speed electrical interfaces. First on the list is communications. This market is already large and with the growth of
the Internet and the convergence of data/voice/video communications, high bandwidth connections are becoming a
necessity. RAMBUS introduced its first dedicated communications technology on April 5th of this year…a 3.125 Gbps
Quad SerDes (Serializer/Deserializer) Cell. This high-bandwidth I/O cell can be integrated into ASIC (application
specific integrated circuits) controllers or network processing units to provide a high-speed interface for backplanes in
network routers and switches. Underscoring the company`s desire to expand its technology offerings and widen its
business scope, a new acquisition and investment department was conceived. In his speech during the February Annual
Shareholder`s Meeting, Geoff Tate detailed RAMBUS` “other” market to be $150 billion by 2002. This “other” market
encompasses many high-growth industries, some of which have not even begun to blossom yet. Currently,
communications is the largest segment of that market, but digital set-top boxes, 3G cell phones, personal digital assistants
(PDA), digital high-definition television (HDTV), digital video recorders, sealed Information appliances, and basically any
other multimedia device will greatly benefit from high-bandwidth, high-speed RAMBUS chip interfaces. In order to
capture a significant share of those markets and to solidify its technology lead in the memory interface market, further
improvements to its RSL (RAMBUS Signaling Level) are needed.

QRSL: The Next Generation
June 2000 was a very important month for RAMBUS in many aspects. The pinnacle occurred on June 16th. Not only
did Toshiba agree to license RAMBUS` non-RDRAM patents for its SDRAM, DDR SDRAM, and DDR FCRAM, but
it also became the first licensee of QRSL, which was also announced that day at the VLSI Circuits Symposium. QRSL,
which stands for Quad RAMBUS Signaling Levels, is the next phase of chip interface technology. It has a native transfer
rate of 1.6 Gbps, twice that of its current generation technology. By using its patented DDR (double data rate)
technology combined with its newly patented MLS (multi-level signaling) technology, which allows four bits to be
transferred per clock cycle, RAMBUS` new chip interface can yield 12.8GB/sec rates from a commodity 64-bit bus.
However impressive this sounds, the technology has only been announced; shippable products will not be available for
some time. RAMBUS is in the process of melding this next-gen technology with its proprietary memory interface, which
will formulate ERDRAM (E = enhanced), or some variant. I don`t expect this PC memory technology to be available on
the open market for at least 2-3 years, but it does provide a glimpse of the scalability of RAMBUS technology.

Anticompetitive Claims!
When RAMBUS sued Hitachi on January 18, 2000, Hitachi responded by claiming that, among other things, RAMBUS
violated Sections 1 and 2 of the Sherman Antitrust Act of 1890. With the settlement between the two companies on June
22, 2000, all charges were dropped. Unfortunately, (other than Toshiba) no other memory manufacturers or chipset
producers have signed similar deals with RAMBUS. It has come to the surface recently that select memory
manufacturers are conspiring to submit a claim to the FTC in regards to a supposed antitrust monopoly. Based on the
fact that Hitachi used the same defense, I think it is highly unlikely the courts will rule in favor of the suggesting memory
makers. RAMBUS was granted several fundamental patents relating to the use and control of synchronous memory
devices, and after all, a patent is a LEGAL MONOPOLY for the period of 17 years. If this claim is carried out, a
short-term downtick will occur. However, if RAMBUS wins or settles, it will have an immediate impact because a large
number of manufacturers will sign at once. Either way, it is pure speculation, but important to consider.

The Bottom Line
I mentioned scalability in regards to RAMBUS technology a few topics back, but now I want to shift to the business
model. Find me a better business model and I`ll show you the smartest businessman in the world! There simply is no
better business model than RAMBUS`. The company is a design house that doesn`t manufacture anything, therefore
keeping capital expenditures low, while maintaining zero inventories. Other manufacturers, who license the technology,
produce their products. Their marketing, and specifically, advertising is done by consumer products companies. And
best of all, their mission statement calls for a minimum of 80% (eighty percent) of employees, at all times, to be engineers,
thereby, keeping the BIG B (Bureaucracy) in check! What this all equates to is this: long-term net profit (NPAT) margins
should reach 60%+!!! Perhaps Mark Edelstone of Morgan Stanley Dean Witter (MSDW) said it best in his revised
research report dated June 19, 2000, “Investors should keep in mind that RAMBUS should become one of the most
profitable companies in the world!”


Disclaimer: This release contains forward-looking statements regarding financial results for future periods.
Actual results could differ materially. All assumptions are my own. They are influenced by many factors and
people including, but not limited to RAMBUS Investor Relations, Geoff Tate, Gary Harmon, Mark Edelstone,
Dataquest, InStat, Samsung, Semico, and others. As Baz Luhrman said in his commencement speech at MIT in
1997, “my advice has no basis more reliable than my own meandering experience;” this holds true for me as
well. Please take my comments, analysis, and predictions for what they are: free advice! If you agree with my
report, take a portion of your money and invest in RMBS. As with ANY investment, please make sure it is one
you feel comfortable with that if you lost all of the money, you would not do anything drastic. Remember, there
is a risk-reward ratio to everything in life…investments should be treated the same. If you don`t agree or do but
don`t feel comfortable investing, do not throw this report out, but instead, store it in a safe place and when
you`re cleaning out that drawer in a couple years, pick it up and see how accurate I was. Good luck to all, I wish
only the best!

[GordenGekko]

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