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Sands Brothers Cover CMRC
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COMMERCE ONE (NASDAQ: CMRC) Commerce One and Covisint: Is This the Moment We’ve Been Waiting For?
Company Description: Commerce One is a provider of business-to-business E-commerce solutions that link buyers and suppliers of goods and services into trading communities over the Internet. The Company was founded in 1994 under the name DistriVision Development Corporation, which was changed to Commerce One in 1997. Headquartered in Pleasanton, CA, Commerce One’s products include the Commerce One BuySite E-procurement application and the Commerce One MarketSite Solution, the technology that allows Internet market makers to build open marketplaces and link them to Commerce One’s Global Trading Web. Commerce One’s B2B E-commerce and E-procurement solutions help users facilitate trade over the Internet, consolidate procurement cycles, shorten response times and reduce costs. The Company has sales offices around the globe and currently has over 3,000 employees. The Company’s website is www.commerceone.com.
Investment Conclusion We are reiterating our Strong Buy recommendation and maintaining our $150 12-month price target. On December 8, 2000, Covisint became incorporated, allowing the automotive e-marketplace to recognize revenues following months of regulatory delays. Yesterday, December 12, 2000, Covisint issued a press release and held a subsequent press conference, which announced Commerce One as its E-procurement technology vendor. We view these two developments as a positive for Commerce One, which will not only gain revenues from the licensing of its E-procurement product suite, but has also entered into a revenue sharing agreement with Covisint. Highlights include the following:
Covisint will license numerous products from Commerce One, including Enterprise Buyer Desktop Edition and MarketSite. In addition, Commerce One has a revenue sharing agreement and based on previous CMRC guidance, we believe should be 5%-10% of the total gross revenues.
To date, Covisint is up and running and has conducted auctions for over $300 million worth of goods. However, questions still remain. Covisint has yet to reveal its business model as well as give any guidance as to the amount of revenues that Covisint could generate. In addition, Covisint is operating without the benefit of a full time CEO and permanent headquarters.
Recurring revenues generated as a result of a revenue sharing agreement with Covisint, should help investors gain more confidence in the long-term sustainability of CMRC’s business model.
The Deal On December 12, 2000, Covisint announced that it selected Commerce One as its exclusive E-procurement provider. Since Oracle and Commerce One were both brought to the table at the beginning of CY2000, investors had wondered the technology roles of each company.
The following points highlight the announcement:
Commerce One, upon shareholder approval, will restructure itself into a holding company. Upon approval of the restructuring, all of CMRC’s shares of common stock will convert into shares of the holding company on a one for one basis.
Commerce One will issue 14.4 million shares to both Ford and General Motors. Half of each allotment will be held in escrow and can be released December 2002 upon the satisfaction of undisclosed conditions. Otherwise, the shares will not be released until June 2004.
Commerce One will receive a 2% equity stake in Covsint.
Covisint will license numerous products from Commerce One, including Enterprise Buyer Desktop Edition and MarketSite. In addition, Commerce One has a revenue sharing agreement and based on previous CMRC guidance, we believe should be 5%-10% of the total gross revenues.
Where is Covisint Now? To date, Covisint is up and running and has conducted auctions for over $300 million worth of goods. However, questions still remain. Covisint has yet to reveal its business model as well as give any guidance as to the amount of revenues that Covisint could generate. In addition, Covisint is operating without the benefit of a full time CEO and permanent headquarters. During the press conference, Covisint management expressed their desire to hire a full time CEO by Christmas and stated that it is currently interviewing several candidates. However, previous promises regarding the emergence of a CEO have gone unfulfilled.
One of the last pieces of the Covisint puzzle is who will be selected as the supply chain management technology vendor. We believe the Commerce One/Sap alliance is currently competing for this business and we would not be surprised if i2 Technologies is competing for this business as well.
Commerce One vs. Oracle The selection of Commerce One as the major provider for e-procurement software also brings into light the rivalry between Oracle and Commerce One. Covisint chose Commerce One to power their e-procurement platform over Oracle, emphasizing Commerce One’s role as a dominant e-procurement player. Though not at the forefront of the system, Oracle will still be heavily involved with Covisint as a major integrator of back end systems including its core database and e-business suite of applications.
Covisint and CMRC: Long Awaited Results Supporters of Commerce One have long been in the waiting for signs of life from Covisint. Ever since the idea was proposed as a follow up to GM’s trade-exchange in December of 1999, regulatory matters kept the Covisint vision from becoming a reality. Previous skepticism existed concerning whether large corporations would ever be able to team up in order to buy and sell goods over the Internet, however the emergence of Covisint provides some evidence that the model is closer to becoming a reality.
Conclusion The recent press releases regarding the incorporation of Covisint, as well as Commerce One’s role as the main e-procurement vendor for the exchange demonstrate that Commerce One is a major player in the e-procurement market. Furthermore, recurring revenues generated as a result of revenue sharing with Covisint should help investors gain more confidence in the sustainability of CMRC’s business model.
CMRC vs. ARBA: The Battle Continues Commerce One is currently trading at 9.5x our FY01 revenue estimate, while competitor Ariba is trading at 24.0x our FY01 revenue estimate. Shares of both companies have been hit hard since our country’s infamous election day; Commerce One is down approximately 43% and Ariba has lost 40% of its value. However, since we questioned the valuation discrepancy between Ariba and Commerce One on August 17, 2000, Ariba has fallen roughly 43% while Commerce One has dropped approximately 17%. The valuation gap between Ariba and Commerce One has narrowed slightly since August 17, 2000. In August, Ariba was trading, at a revenue multiple on FY01E that was 2.95x higher than CMRC and this gap has now narrowed to 2.52x, based on yesterday’s close. We continue to believe CommerceOne will close the valuation gap between itself and Ariba as investor’s continue to gain confidence in and further understand Commerce One’s business model. We are reiterating our Strong Buy recommendation and maintaining our $150 price target.
Additional information on these securities and companies is available upon request.
The following companies are mentioned in this report: Covisint (Privately Held), Ford (NYSE: F – no rating - $23 5/8), General Motors (NYSE: GM – no rating – $51 3/4), Oracle (NASDAQ: ORCL – no rating - $30 3/4), Daimler Chrysler (NYSE: DCX – no rating -$44.95), i2 Technologies (NASDAQ: ITWO – Buy - $61 ½), SAP (NYSE ADR: SAP – no rating - $39 13/16) and Ariba (Nasdaq: ARBA – Buy - $76 11/16).
This report has been prepared as a matter of general information, it is not intended to be a complete description of any security or company mentioned, and is not an offer to buy or sell any security. All facts and statistics are from sources believed reliable, but are not guaranteed to be accurate. The firm, its directors and employees and clients maintains a position in these securities and may at any time have a position in other securities mentioned in this report, which may increase or decrease over time. Sands Brothers & Co., Ltd. may have participated in the underwriting of this company’s securities in the past three years or more. Sands Brothers & Co., Ltd. makes a market in shares of Commerce One stock. Since registered representatives make individual investment recommendations in the accounts under their supervision, transactions may be effected which are inconsistent with research reports. Sands Brothers & Co., Ltd., member SIPC. This research report may not be issued or passed on to any person in the United Kingdom unless that person is of a kind described in Article 11(3) of the Financial Services Act of 1986 (Investment Advertisements) (Exemptions) or is a person to whom this document may otherwise lawfully be issued or passed on.




Robertson Stephens Daily Growth Stock Update for NAVI, RAZF, CMRC, LLY, MRK and TLB
By: Robertson Stephens
12/13/00 8:18:05 AM


Commerce One, Inc.
NASDAQ: CMRC $40.38
Buy
Eric Upin, Business-to-Business eCommerce
“Commerce One and Covisint reached a definitive agreement on Tuesday, December 12,” said Upin. “In our view, the signing of the definitive agreement is significant because it demonstrates increased directional focus and continued execution by the principals of the consortium and it satisfies one of the key conditions for Commerce One to recognize license revenue from consortium members. Assuming Covisint is of similar magnitude to other mega-exchanges, over time, we believe Commerce One could recognize as much as $10-15 in license revenue and $25-50 million in services revenue. We view the signing of the definitive agreement as incrementally positive for Commerce One. Even though we remain comfortable with the December quarter, we believe Commerce One faces a number of challenges moving into 2001, including: the impact of a decelerating economy on corporate IT spending, a slowdown in the consortia market – with the rate of new announcements declining dramatically, increasing failure rates among dot.com marketplaces, and execution risks on the product and sales front with SAP. While we will continue to monitor these issues, we remain positive on the company’s near-term prospects. As a result, we maintain our Buy rating on the stock.”



US Bancorp Piper Jaffray Covers FDS, FRE, OIIM, CMRC, CPQ and EMLX
By: US Bancorp Piper Jaffray
12/13/00 7:30:33 AM

Commerce One Corporation (CMRC – $40 3/8)
Strong Buy; EPS 00E ($0.36), 01E $0.02; Mkt Cap $7,832.8M; Avg Vol 11,480,930
Definitive Agreement Reached With Covisint – Few Details from Covisint and the Company Leave Us Questioning the Value of This $1.15 Billion Equity Deal


und 13.12.00

Lehman Brothers at Outperform

McDonald Invst at Buy

[noVier]

nachbörslich gestern:
CMRC
NM
1,908,782
39.0000
19:58:03.43
290
-1.3750
-3.41%

$39.0 entspricht €43,50

[noVier]

sorry.
$39.0 entspricht €44,5026