Wie werden DOW und NASDAQ am Montag eröffnen? - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[Voigt@]

Der Dax und Nemax haben vorgelegt und beide wegen der Anschläge in USA ca. 12% verloren!
Damit ist doch klar, dass Dow und Nasdaq am Montag ca 5-10% verlieren und somit die letzten horizontalen Widerstände nach unter beim Dow von ca 9150 und bei der Nasdaq bei 1638 brechen werden! Oder glaubt wer, dass die Börsen am Montag in USA ins Plus gehen - ich nicht.

[weehaa]

Das ist diegleiche Frage zum x-mal`ten heute.

Keiner Weiss es.

Von einer Zinssenkung von 50 Bp. am WE wird spekuliert.

Es wäre aber BIZARR wenn wir am Montag im Plus eröffenten.
Das ist eigentlich schon moralisch unmöglich.

Viel wichtiger wird sein was in den nächsten Monaten passieren wird.
Die ersten Tage des handels werden sicher ganz und gar
unlogisch und völlig durcheinander gehen.
finger davon lassen.

[klui]

Also auf alle Fälle werden sie nicht im Plus eröffnen !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[mister_tool]

Ich glaube, dass es sehr starke Schwankungen geben wird! Aber diese Spekulationen sind eigentlich nur Blödsinn, weil es wirklich niemand !!!!!!!!!!!!!!! weiß !!!!

[OnassisA.]

Die Wall Street wird in den ersten 1-2 auf jeden Fall absacken. Die SEC hat die Grenzen für die Rückkaufprogramme der Unternehmen erweitert, die FED und der Staat pumpen Kohle ins System. Und zuguterletzt die Propagandamaschine läuft und versucht den Leuten einzubläuen:
Don´t sell, buy!

[weehaa]

Was man aber mit Sicherheit sagen kann:

Die FED und andere Banken werden mit höchster Ausmerksam-
keit und riesigen mengen Geld den Markt vor einem Total-
kollaps bewahren. Darauf bereitet man sich sicher seit
Tagen vor.
Am wahrscheinlichsten dürfte ein "kontrollierter Absturz" sein.
Also die Amis sollte man wirklich nicht unterschätzten, vor
allem nicht im Hinblick auf ihre Finanzmärkte....

[OnassisA.]

Nicht absacken muss es heissen, Sorry

[Voigt@]

Zinssenkung haben bisher überhaupt noch
keine Wirkungen gezeigt und am Montag
zu senken wäre der falsche Schritt,
da es die Angst vor einer Rezession noch
zusätzlich verstärken würde!

[hugo_b]

habe zu diesem Thema folgende Studie erhalten:

Dear Member/Client,

As everyone else, we have been shocked by the terrible tragedy that hit the United States this week, and our thoughts are with the victims and their families at this time. We have many web site members and friends based in the WTC, some of whom are still unaccounted for, and we are praying for everyone that has been affected by the tragic events at the WTC, Pentagon and elsewhere.

As you will know, the financial markets have been severely affected, and a full return to normality can not be expected for some time to come. Our advice to you is still to limit your exposures and avoid excessive trading in these testing times. We have, however, had a very large number of enquiries from members and clients concerned about how the US stock market may react when opening either tomorrow or Monday. Therefore, we have asked our Head of Technical Research, Mr. Robert Balan, to provide a few historical comparisons to other situations where the US financial markets have been under similar severe pressure, and we include the report for you below in the hope that it may provide some guidance to what we can expect.

If you wish to contact us for further information or assistance:

http://www.saxobank.com/Site/Contact/ContactCenter.asp?SCO=&…

Yours sincerely,
SAXO BANK A/S


The Management

A Historical Analysis by Robert P. Balan

Thursday, September 13, 2001

1) The first instance in history which may be somehow analogous to the current situation is the period of autumn 1998. After the Russian debt default the Long Term Capital Management (LTCM) hedge fund had to be bailed out by a consortium of banks, at the behest of the Federal Reserve, to the tune of some $4 billion. The hedge fund`s problems were severely impacting the normal functioning of the financial markets.

The Federal Reserve then cut interest rates and stood ready to provide liquidity to restore the normal functioning of the markets. As well as being the guardian of U.S. monetary policy, the Fed has also a mandate to oversee the banking and financial system. The Fed has already said on Tuesday that it`s ready to provide the markets with liquidity. Tuesday`s events likely gave the Fed full license to cut interest rates by as much as 50 basis points or even a full point, perhaps in a single move, come October or November.

In 1998, the S&P 500 peaked at the end of July at 1,190. The index dropped 22 percent to a low of 923 in mid-October in the wake of the Russian debt default and LTCM crisis. The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points on September 29 and again on October 15.

Four weeks later the S&P was back above 1,100 and by the beginning of 1999 broke new ground above 1,200.

2) The second historical instance is the period of Iraq`s invasion of Kuwait and the subsequent Gulf War.
Iraq invaded Kuwait at the beginning of August 1990. Stock markets tumbled from their July highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average peaked at 3,025 in July 1990, and by October 1990 reached a low of 2,344, a fall of 23 percent.

Then market rallied from October onwards. Operation Desert Storm didn`t start until January 17 1991. It may be that the market hates the uncertainty more than the Desert Storm land war itself.

3) The third instance: After the attack on Pearl Harbor, the stock market fell 5 percent over two days. However as the United States mobilized and expressed its resolve in ensuing days, the stock market came back, and retraced up to 60 per cent of losses after two months.

On the plus side, investor`s may be subjected to a volatile rocky ride, but in the US, a crisis usually brings forward the necessary policy response.

My feeling/assessment is, despite these historical references, it is too early to call a bottom. The current rebound in European stock markets has been limited, and probably of the short-covering variety. I see resistance in CAC-40 at 4250, and the next firm support may show up only at 3750 (another 8% lower). Even then, I don`t expect a major correction to the upside until the CAC-40 has reached 3200 - 3100. Then I would be looking for a recovery to 3700 - 3900. But the end of the bear cycle may be found only at 2700 - 2600 late next year. The equivalent numbers for DAX are: next support at around 3950 area; major support at 3300, then a rebound to 4200 - 4300. A bottom is expected late next year at 2500 - 2400.

The bear case is bolstered by the blow to consumer confidence as a result of market disruptions, which will tip the U.S. economy into recession. The business of airlines, insurers, and hoteliers will be hit, and the fear is that the mainstay of the U.S. economy - the consumer - will retreat into his shell. This will have a profound implication to the global economy. A full-blown global recession is highly likely as a consequence. The best comparison is to the 1990 Gulf War, when the economy contracted for three quarters and the ensuing recovery was weak.


Conclusion: Tuesday`s events will pile into already deteriorating fundamentals (indeed, will worsen those fundamentals), and may inflict much damage to Consumer confidence, which is already tottering into a downward spiral. This is not to mention the dismal technicals and weak market internals, which is typical on major 3rd wave of the third wave phase. By the time the final fifth wave is in place, the deadly combination should bring the stock market to pre-Internet evaluation levels. The next bull market should begin thereafter.

___________________________________________________________________________

THE CONTENTS OF THIS PUBLICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSTRUED AS AN EXPRESS OR IMPLIED PROMISE, GUARANTEE OR IMPLICATION BY SAXOBANK THAT YOU WILL PROFIT FROM THE STRATEGIES HEREIN OR THAT YOUR LOSSES IN CONNECTION THEREWITH CAN OR WILL BE LIMITED. STOPS MAY NOT NECESSARILY LIMIT LOSSES TO INTENDED AMOUNTS AS MARKET CONDITIONS MAY MAKE IT IMPOSSIBLE TO EXECUTE STOP ORDERS AT THE INTENDED LEVELS. PLEASE READ THE DISCLAIMER ON THE FRONT PAGE OF WWW.SAXOBANK.COM

Gruß hugo

[weehaa]

@ voigt

ob die Zinssenkungen KEINE wirkung hatten wissen wir
doch gar nicht !!

Oder bist du der Meinung das wir in den Indices auch ohne
Zinssenkungen da wären wo wir sind ???
Ne. Da wurde schon ganz erheblich abgefedert.

[Voigt@]

weehaa
das ist alles richtig was du sagtst,
nur helfen tun die der US-Wirtschaft
nicht viel, denn wir befinden uns am
Anfang einer globalen Rezession und
die Betonung liegt auf Anfang!

[weehaa]

voigt.
eine Rezession ist kein Beinbruch.

Wir hatten 10 Jahre exorbitantes Wachstum.
Es ist völlig normal das die Wirtschaft korrigiert.
Das hatten wir anfang der 80iger, anfang der 90iger und
halt auch anfang der 00er

Wir müssen aufpassen das wir uns nicht in eine Pankistimmung
hineinreden und damit das eigentliche Problem torpediern.

Cool bleiben. Es gibt kein unendliches Wachstum.
Japan leidet viel stärker. Aber wenn du mal nach
Tokyo fährst gibt dort keine Suppenküchen sondern
eine Gigantische florierende metropole.

Also. keep cool. Es kann halt nicht immer nur aufwärts gehen.

[moneyfill]

Die Börse ist doch keine Einbahnstrasse, wir sollte einfach die Gewinne mitnehmen !

[weehaa]

hahaha.
also zur zeit dürfte es nicht mehr soviele geben die noch
gewinne mitnehmen können.
Leider sind viel erst seit 1 oder 2 Jahren an der Börse die
hier im Forum posten. Naja, das sind die gebissenen Hunde.

Wenn man 5 oder 10 Jahre investiert ist sollte man aber
sicher die gewinne absichern. Unten sind wir sicher noch nicht.

[moneyfill]

Hab´ schon vor 20 Jahren Gewinne mitgenommen, da hat man Internet noch nicht mal buchstabieren können.

[Werewolfe]

Quelle: www.nasdaq.com

What to Do When the Markets Reopen
by Peter Di Teresa | 09-14-01

Dear Professor,
I am devastated by Tuesday`s terrorist attack and, frankly, I`m worried about my financial security, too. Does it make sense to sell my investments and go into cash when the markets reopen?

Paul W.



Like millions of us, Paul is experiencing shock and fear. Those aren`t good reasons for selling, though. Instead, investors would do well to sit tight and keep following their long-term investing plans. Read on to learn why.

Dodging Won`t Work
If there is a sell-off when the U.S. stock exchanges resume trading, and most people expect one, you won`t be able to avoid its effects. A downturn is likely to begin the moment trading begins, which means you`ll be selling into a falling market.

That`s if you`re selling individual stocks. If you`re contemplating selling mutual funds, you`ll have to wait until the end of the day to cash in. No matter when you place your sell order with your fund, the sale won`t actually occur until the markets close. Funds execute all buy and sell orders after figuring the value of their shares, and they don`t do that until the end of the trading day. That means that if you sell, you won`t escape the losses incurred during the day.

The Stock Market`s Prospects
Selling as soon as possible might look reasonable if it turned out that stocks continued to decline over an extended period. There`s no way to tell in advance if that`s likely to happen, but it`s far from inevitable.

Of course, there`s no event comparable to this attack, but history may give some idea of how the stock market will respond. When the U.S. experienced such catastrophic events as the attack on Pearl Harbor, the Kennedy assassination, and the start of the Gulf War, the stock market dropped, but only for the short term. The longest time the market took to return to earlier levels was just two weeks.

Foreign markets could provide an indication of what the U.S. market may do in the wake of this tragedy. After an initial sell-off, markets in Europe and Japan have stabilized and even made some gains.

Prospects for the Economy
This terrorist attack comes at a time when the U.S. economy is already weak and it`s reasonable to wonder whether the result could be a recession. It`s entirely possible, but much of the likelihood is due to the fact that the economy was edging toward recession already.

Two key factors in the economy`s health were turning negative: Consumer confidence had weakened and corporate spending had slowed. Recent events are likely to exacerbate that trend, though how much effect they will have is unclear.

For a thoughtful discussion of the economic effects of the tragedy, read this article from www.economy.com

What to Do

Fear comes from uncertainty. When investors sell in a panic, it`s because they don`t know what is going to happen and don`t want to wait around to find out. They inevitably throw away good investments in the process. To avoid making that mistake, don`t act on uncertainty. Go with what you know, the investment plan you were following before the tragedy.



Peter Di Teresa is a senior analyst with Morningstar.com. He can be reached at [e-mail].

[tombakerpeng]

Im Tiefflug ueber Kabul!!! So werden NAsdaq und DOW MOntag eroeffnen!!!

[Voigt@]

Ich befürchte auch, dass es nächste Woche Krieg gibt!

[studied]

Ich denke Amerika wird Staerke zeigen und ins Plus drehen.