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[ThaiGuru]

Dave Lewis

http://www.chaos-onomics.com

The cabal’s obvious and continuous gold bashing is demoralizing gold share owners. Surely, they are contributing to that demoralization by pounding the shares themselves. The XAU fell 2.30 to 67.44 and HUI dropped to 125.54, down 3.06.

The best I can say for The Gold Cartel is they are pathetic. The damage they are perpetuating on America could last a good part of a generation.

The cabal forces are manipulating gold and the stock market (maybe all the financial markets) until they get their economic war started. They are hoping gold will tank after their war starts and the US stock market will soar, as in 1991.

Sure, they may get some knee-jerk reactions of that order, but they are doing their business in some state of illusion. I suspect most of the investment world is waiting to buy gold and sell an incredibly overvalued stock market.

The importance of gold taking out $360 is glaringly apparent. When it does, look out above!

Meanwhile, Keep The Faith Café members. Truth will win out. The gold truth is that its price is going dramatically higher, regardless of the nefarious doings of The Gold Cartel.

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.usagold.com

The Afternoon Gold Report...
by Jon Warner

March 7, 2003 (usagold.com)

New York spot gold settled lower at $350.10 an ounce down $5.90 cents an ounce from yesterday’s close. "Iraq is a sideshow," said Martin Murenbeeld, a Victoria-based gold market analyst. "It is a bump upward on a rising trend." According to Mr. Murenbeeld, the biggest factor underlying the gold market is the threat of reflation, a scenario that leads the central banks of the world to print money like it is going out of style to avoid deflation. "The way the global economy is unfolding, we are going to see a lot of monetary-based reflation," Mr. Murenbeeld said. ``Our outlook is still looking for a decline in the dollar based on the fact returns are going to be muted`` in the U.S. and a war with Iraq is on the horizon, said Sudesh Mariappa, who helps manage $27 billion in global assets at Pacific Investment Management Co. in Newport Beach, California. ``The employment number just adds another stone in the cart; it suggests slower growth, weaker profit growth and weaker returns.`` The loss of 308,000 jobs leading to a rise in the U.S unemployment rate weighed on the dollar. ``You`ve got the labor situation crushing the consumer,`` said Lara Rhame, a currency economist at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. Combined with the concern about a potential war, ``all of this is opening the door for further dollar losses.`` The outlook for the dollar remains negative. ``There`s no reason for the dollar not to remain weak,`` said Stephen Gallagher, chief U.S. economist at Societe Generale. He sees the U.S. currency declining to $1.12 per euro within a month. ``We`re getting enough weak information coming out of the U.S.`` to keep the dollar falling, he said.

London gold was fixed this afternoon at $350.75 an ounce, down from $356.60 an ounce at the morning fixing. "The performance of gold in the last few days has been very disappointing -- completely uncommitted. It is being marked higher with moves in the currency," said UBS Warburg precious metals analyst John Reade. "Trade is likely to remain subdued until later today when Hans Blix`s speech will give a clearer indication on the prospect of war," James Moore of TheBullionDesk.com said. Analyst Ross Norman at TheBullionDesk said gold had reacted positively to continued US dollar weakness, as the currency hit a 4 year low against the Euro this afternoon in the wake of weaker-than-expected US non-farm payroll data. Analyst Ingrid Sternby at Barclays Capital confirmed these sentiments, saying gold took renewed support yesterday from the fresh four year lows of the US dollar against the Euro and the Yen, adding: "the metal looks well-placed to test the next point of technical resistance at 360 usd/oz in the wake of Blix`s address to the UN this afternoon."

Earlier spot gold closed at $356.05 an ounce on Friday in Hong Kong, up $1.90 from Thursday`s close of $354.15. Gold reacted little to President George W. Bush’s speech last night. "The speech implies that they are going to take action. That he couldn`t get enough votes" in the Security Council, said Gordon Cheung, director of precious metals trading at Mitsui Bussan in Hong Kong. In the near term, gold would trade in the $352-360 range, Cheung forecast. "This has been the quietest day of the week," Cheung said. "Gold is really unmoved, and the currencies, the Aussie dollar, the yen and the euro are all trading in a very narrow range," said Martin Mayne, associate director at NM Rothschild and Sons (Australia) in Sydney. "I think that people are still waiting for the Blix report," Mayne said, referring to the U.N.`s chief weapons inspector. Most players in the market were already positioned, long if they saw war in the near term and square if they were uncertain, Mayne said. ``It was more or less watch this space,`` said Ron Cameron, an analyst at Sydney-based brokerage Ord Minnett Ltd. ``There was nothing new`` in Bush`s speech, he said. "If the United States were to start a war without a U.N. resolution, it would most certainly be damaging for the dollar," said Koji Fukaya, chief currency analyst at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi.


GEOPOLITICAL NEWS:

A Pakistan official said on Friday two sons of Osama bin Laden were wounded and possibly arrested in an operation by U.S. and Afghan troops in Afghanistan that killed at least nine suspected al Qaeda men. But the governor of the Afghan province where the action was reported to have taken place on Thursday swiftly denied there had been any arrests, clouding an already confused picture. And a spokesman for the U.S. military in Afghanistan denied that U.S. troops were in the area and said it had no information about the capture of sons of the al Qaeda leader.

The United States, Britain and Spain on Friday delivered a March 17 ultimatum to Iraq to cooperate fully with disarmament demands or face war, but three major nations with U.N. veto power remained opposed to military action. In a forceful speech, British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw announced the new resolution at a tense Security Council meeting. The text that was circulated, said: "Iraq will have failed to take the final opportunity afforded by resolution 1441 unless on or before March 17, 2003, the Council concludes that Iraq has demonstrated full, unconditional, immediate and active cooperation with its disarmament obligations." U.S. and British warplanes taking part in patrols over southern Iraq on Friday attacked an Iraqi mobile radar system, the U.S. military said. It said the radar system had been moved into the area and posed a threat to the allied aircraft. The allies have more than doubled their patrols over the Iraqi "no-fly" zones to at least 500 a day, U.S. defense officials said on Thursday, as a U.S.-led invasion of Iraq appeared close.


ECONOMIC NEWS:

U.S. payrolls plunged in February at the sharpest rate since November 2001 and the jobless rate rose to 5.8 percent, the government said on Friday in a shockingly gloomy economic report. The Labor Department said payroll jobs outside the farm sector declined by 308,000 last month - in contrast to expectations in a Reuters poll that they would rise by 8,000. Payrolls had risen by 185,000 in January, a number that was revised up from the originally reported 143,000 gain. The jobless rate climbed one-tenth of a percentage point from January`s 5.7 percent. More than one in five unemployed U.S. workers in February had been out of work for more than six months, according to Friday`s surprisingly weak jobs report -- the highest proportion of long-term unemployed among the jobless in more than 10 years.

In its annual review of President Bush`s budget, the Congressional Budget Office is expected to predict that his plans to cut taxes and boost military spending will generate more than $2 trillion in federal deficits in the next decade. The report, due to be sent to lawmakers on Friday evening, will likely also boost the CBO`s own forecasts of a $199 billion deficit in 2003 and $145 billion shortfall in 2004 by around $30 billion, lawmakers and aides have said. The White House has already predicted government deficits of over $300 billion this year and in 2004, easily surpassing the previous 1992 record of $290 billion in dollar terms.


Comment: Gold dropped during the trading session on an unconfirmed Pakistani report that two sons of al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden were wounded and arrested in a raid in Afghanistan, near borders with Pakistan and Iran. The report proved false but the gold market did not readjust before the close of the short trading session. The gold market did not react to the speech by chief United Nations arms inspector Hans Blix anymore than it did to last night’s news conference with President George W. Bush. The market appears more interested in reacting to rumor than fact at this point as the “Bin Laden Rally” attests. It also provided an excuse to shake out some weak speculators. Early in the session gold remained strong on dismal economic data as the U.S. dollar struggled against a stronger Euro falling to four-year lows and a plunging U.S. stock market. U.S. equities markets rebounded sharply and the dollar came off its lows on the “Bin Laden Rally”, however, as the rumors were dispelled the equities market and the dollar resumed the downward plunge after the gold pits had already closed in New York. The U.S. dollar continues to weaken under crushing debt and growing deficits. This trend will continue, possibly indefinitely, as foreign investors withdraw from U.S. dollar investments. Gold will remain supported as the dollar weakens regardless of sideshow events like war in Iraq, nukes and missiles in North Korea, terrorist bombings in SE Asia and chasing wisps of smoke like today’s debunked al Qaeda rumor. In the end it’s really about the dollar. Meanwhile the lower gold price provides another cheap entry point for potential investors.


- Jon H. Warner -


E-Mail the current report to a friend or to yourself.
__________________________
Jon Warner is a professional geologist with nearly 24 years in exploration and project development in both mining and petroleum. Mr. Warner brings to the table an impressive industry contact list, thorough knowledge of the precious metals and energy markets as well as a practical understanding of gold`s role in the private investment portfolio. His strong knowledge in these fields has been demonstrated at the USAGOLD Discussion Forum where he posts on a regular basis as Black Blade.



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[Biotechperle]

Habe heute mein neues Münzenmagazin erhalten,mit einem
schönen doppelseitigen Beitrag zum Gold.

Gold auf Sechs-Jahres-Hoch

Unter der Überschrift werden viele Beiträge aus diversen
Medien zusammengefaßt,unter anderem aus der FAZ:
"Gold werde der Hauptgewinner einer Kreditdeflation sein,die sich in Amerika und Großbritannien Bahn bricht,wenn die Blase des kreditgetriebenen Konsums platzt.
Der Analyst Christopher Wood mahnt:Alle Anleger sollten
Goldmünzen und Minenaktien als Versicherung besitzen".

Vorsorge besser als die Riester-Rente

Unter diesem Punkt z.B.:
"Wenn man mit dem Goldkauf mit 25 Jahren anfange und sich vornehme,nach 40 Jahren mit seinem Gold in Rente zu gehen,sei es ziemlich sicher,dass dann Gold die beste
"Riester-Rente" sein werde.

Weiterhin werden dann noch viele Gründe für eine Wertanlage in Gold angeführt.

zitierte Quelle: Deutsches Münzenmagazin 2/2003

Nun werden wieder einige denken,wenn die Presse zum Goldeinstieg trommelt,läuten die Alarmglocken.
Ich persönlich kann nur sagen,dass sich in meinem weiteren Bekanntenumfeld niemand in Gold engagiert,aber irgendwelche
Fonds haben alle noch(wird ja wieder).

Gruß
Bio

[Biotechperle]

Zwischenüberschrift heißt:
Vorsorge:Gold besser als die Riester Rente

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.webfin.com/en/news/news.html/?id=31666

TORONTO, March 7 (CP) -- Barrick Gold Corp. reassured investors Friday that it won`t face a hedging disaster similar to one unfolding at major competitor Newmont Mining Corp.

A blowup for Newmont, the world`s biggest producer, has
sparked fears investors will shy away from other producers
that sell gold in forward contracts at locked-in prices.

Unlike the Newmont situation, none of Barrick`s 19 bullion
bank counterparties have unilateral and discretionary rights to terminate the forward sales contracts, Canada`s largest gold producer stated Friday.

Barrick also said it has sold forward only 21 percent of its gold reserves, and its contracts give it the right to sell gold at market prices or the hedge price, whichever is higher.

Earlier this week, Standard & Poor`s cut its credit rating on Newmont`s Yandal operations in Australia, acquired in the American company`s 2001 takeover of Normandy Mining, after reviewing the project`s hedging exposure.

Newmont has disclosed that Yandal faces a negative
mark-to-market value of US$288 million on its hedge
book. This situation could worsen because the mine`s
counterparties have the right to require Yandal to settle
the contracts in cash before they come due.

"That`s why we thought it was necessary to point out
the differences in our case," said Barrick`s Vincent Borg.

Investors are nervous, and Canadian gold stocks have
suffered. Shares in Barrick and Placer Dome Ltd. have
lagged the sector`s rally of the past year, largely because many investors and analysts distrust the companies` derivative portfolios.

[ThaiGuru]

Interview: Financial Sense Newshour, Jim Puplava vom 8. März 2003, mit Ferdinand Lips, dem Autor des Bestsellers

http://www.netcastdaily.com/1experts/2003/exp030803.ram

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

!

Dieser Beitrag wurde vom System automatisch gesperrt. Bei Fragen wenden Sie sich bitte an [e-mail]

[manfred1_I]

Unter dem nachfolgenden Thema:
Gold- Silbermünzen und KMS Werthaltige Sachen

erhaltet ihr Infos zur Bestellung für die
neue Dt. Goldmünze 2003.

[ThaiGuru]

Wo wird denn heute am Sonntag Gold und Silber gehandelt?

Nicht dass ich mich wiederholen möchte, aber irgend etwas stinkt doch zum Himmel mit den veröffentlichten Gold, und Silber Preisen.
Nach "comdirect" Goldchart, stieg der Goldpreis heute von 350.75 Dollar auf 355.50 bei 128 einzelnen Werten (Deals), um 2 Stunden später wieder auf 350.75 zu fallen.

http://cdchart.innovative-software.com/informer2/cdcharttcl?…



Beim Silber Chart wird auch Handel angezeigt!

Silber ist gestiegen, und steht jetzt bei 4.67 Dollar pro Unze.



Wenn man diesen Link aufruft, sieht man es noch detailierter: Handelsrange von 4.59 bis 4.70 Dollar
http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main.ht…

Bei n-tv, Tafel 210, wird zur Zeit dieses Postings ein Goldpreis von 351.50 angegeben.

http://www.n-tv.de/2250668.html?tpl=main&seite=

Der 24 Std. Gold Chart bei KITCO USA, zeigt immer noch unverändert einen Goldpreis 350.10 Dollar vom Freitag 7. März 2003 an. Dem Tag, an dem der Papier Goldkurs (Gold Futures Kontrakte) auf so "eindrückliche Weise" innert kürzester Zeit um fast 10.- Dollar runtergefallen ist, nachdem die, wie sich jetzt nachträglich herausstellte, "Falschmeldung" von der Verhaftung zweier Söhne von Osama Bin Laden verbreitet wurde.

[YoyoStock]

tja lieber thaiguru

große ereignisse werfen ihre schatten vorraus, könnte man meinen die welt wird es schon noch früh genug erfahren.

[ThaiGuru]

Wusste ich`s doch!!

Nach dem diskreten Treffen des Bundeskanzler Schröder mit einigen CEOs der deutschen Bankenwelt, bei dem über Hilfen des Staates (Steuer Gelder) an in Existenznöten befindlichen Bankinstitute diskutiert wurde, über das ich hier im Thread gepostet habe, jetzt auf einmal die Ankündigung von Staatshilfe an die Banken in Not, wie sich Eichel ausdrückte.

Gruss

ThaiGuru



http://www.wams.de/

Minister Eichel will in Not geratenen Banken helfen

Bundesfinanzminister Hans EichelFoto: AP

Mit Hilfe einer „Kreditfabrik" sollen faule Kredite staatlich abgesichert werden. Banken-Vorstände trafen den Kanzler. Schröder wird am Freitag in seiner Rede einen genauen Zeitplan für Reformen vorlegen

mehr....

http://www.wams.de/data/2003/03/09/50036.html

[ThaiGuru]

Habe gerade eben einen Telefonanruf erhalten, in dem mir mitgeteilt wurde, dass im schweizer Teletext eine Meldung veröffentlicht wurde, in dem gesagt wird, dass ein parlamentarischer Vorstoss lanciert wurde, in dem von der schweizerischen Regierung die Aufklärung des Verbleibes der schweizer Gold Vorräte gefordert wird.

Vielleicht schaut sich das ja einer der User im TV Teletext mal an, ich kann es leider von TH aus nicht selbst machen.


Gruss

ThaiGuru

[GoldGott]

ThaiGuru:

Ich hatte Dich bislang für recht intelligent gehalten, aber nach #4965 bin ich sehr am zweifeln!

Sonntags gibt es nirgendwo Handel. Diese Veränderungen sind lediglich Taxen, weil wohl irgendwo auf der Welt jemand Langeweile hat.

[ThaiGuru]

@GoldGott

So so, Du zweifelst plötzlich an meiner Intelligenz nach meinem Posting #4965.

Das ist Dein gutes Recht!

Mein Recht ist es aber auch an Deinem Hintergrundwissen, und Deiner Kompetenz zu zweifeln, wenn ich Deinen Satz zum Sachverhalt des bei comdirect heute angezeigten Goldhandels lese:


"Diese Veränderungen sind lediglich Taxen, weil wohl irgendwo auf der Welt jemand Langeweile hat."


Du soltest den Lesern im Thread vielleicht etwas mehr bieten, als nur naive Behauptungen aufzustellen.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[GoldGott]

Es sind auch lediglich Taxen - Tatsache!


& mehr bieten oder gar ausführlicher auf diese Behauptung eingehen tue ich nicht. Weshalb auch?
Jeder der sich ein wenig mit Börse auskennt, sollte über solche Dinge Kenntnis haben. Ansonsten hat er an der Börse nichts verloren.


Dir noch einen schönen Sonntag

[ThaiGuru]

@GoldGott

"Diese Veränderungen sind lediglich Taxen, weil wohl irgendwo auf der Welt jemand Langeweile hat."

Dann müssten diese Taxen die aus Langeweile entstanden sind, wie Du es beschrieben hast auch bei Kitco oder INO.com angezeigt werden, tun sie aber nicht.

Wir hatten dieses Problem schon früher einmal hier im Gold Board diskutiert, da warst Du anscheinend nicht unter den Lesern?

Damals wurde am Samstag gehandelt. Der Handel wurde damals von INO.com angezeigt, nicht aber bei comedirect, und auch nicht bei Kitco.

INO.com bestätigte damals den Handel am Samstag!

Die Antwort stand im Gold Board.

Behaupten kann man viel!

Erklär`s, und beleg es uns.

Oder kannst Du es auch nicht?

Gruss

Thaiguru

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.wams.de/data/2003/03/09/49957.html

Ein Veto für Öl und Waffen

Frankreich, Russland und China spielen im UN-Sicherheitsrat die Karte des Friedens.

In Wirklichkeit aber geht es ihnen um Geschäfte mit Bagdad in Milliardenhöhe von Hans Krech und Heimo Schwilk

Grafik: WamS

Es war die Stunde der Heuchler und Moralisten. Nachdem der deutsche Außenminister Joschka Fischer - damals noch Vorsitzender des UN-Sicherheitsrates - am 14. Februar die Debatte über die Arbeit der Waffeninspektoren im Irak eröffnet hatte, meldete sich Frankreichs Außenminister Dominique de Villepin zu Wort.

Mit besorgter Stimme und der Theatralik eines Diplomaten, der die Grande Nation repräsentiert, sagte der graumähnige Franzose an seinen amerikanischen Kontrahenten Colin Powell gewandt: „Wir Franzosen wissen, lieber Kollege, was Freiheitskampf bedeutet - aber wir wissen zugleich, was Krieg und Zerstörung bedeuten!" Frankreich, seinen „ewigen Werten" verpflichtet, glaube daran, dass man gemeinsam eine bessere Welt schaffen könne. Aber, so fuhr Villepin fort, man müsse das mit friedlichen Mitteln tun, nicht mit Krieg.

Nachdem der lang anhaltende Beifall verebbt war, setzte sich der russische Außenminister Igor Iwanow mit der Ankündigung in Szene, Russland werde gegen den amerikanischen Kriegskurs ein Veto einlegen, „um die internationale Stabilität zu wahren". Der chinesische Vertreter im Sicherheitsrat nickte zustimmend.

Was verbindet die drei potenziellen Veto-Mächte, die sich seit Monaten mit den Amerikanern ein so zähes diplomatisches Ringen um Krieg und Abrüstung im Irak liefern? Die Antwort ist so einfach wie banal: Es geht um das große Geschäft.

Sollten sich die USA und Großbritannien durchsetzen, würden Russland, Frankreich und China wirtschaftlich wie strategisch geschwächt werden. Die Führer mehrerer irakischer Oppositionsgruppen verkündeten bereits, sie wollten nach dem Sturz Saddam Husseins keine Wirtschaftskontakte mit Staaten haben, die das Regime des Diktators unterstützt hätten.

Der Irak verfügt mit etwa 100 Milliarden Barrel Erdöl über die zweitgrößten Vorkommen der Welt. Hinzu kommen bedeutende Erdgasvorräte, die bisher kaum ausgebeutet wurden. Allein die Wirtschaftsaufträge zum Wiederaufbau des Irak nach einem Sturz des Diktators werden sich auf etwa 200 Milliarden Dollar belaufen. Wer diese Aufträge erhalten wird, darum wird gegenwärtig im UN-Sicherheitsrat gekämpft.

Russland ist traditionell der wichtigste wirtschaftliche Partner des Irak. Etwa 90 Prozent der Bewaffnung und Ausrüstung der irakischen Streitkräfte wurden aus der ehemaligen Sowjetunion bezogen. Im Februar 1995 unterzeichnete eine irakische Delegation unter Leitung von General Amir Rashid in Moskau einen Vertrag über die Lieferung von 4000 Kampfpanzern T80 U an Bagdad. Die Lieferung soll beginnen, sobald die UN-Sanktionen aufgehoben sind. Es wäre der größte Rüstungsauftrag Russlands seit Ende des Kalten Krieges. Der Irak würde in kürzester Zeit die volle Offensivfähigkeit am Golf wiedererlangen und seine Nachbarstaaten Kuwait und Iran erneut militärisch bedrohen können.

Im März 2001 unterbreitete der irakische Vizepräsident Taha Yassin Ramadan der russischen Regierung in Moskau ein Angebot über Wirtschaftsaufträge im Wert von 21 Milliarden Dollar, sollte sie sich für die Aufhebung der UN-Sanktionen einsetzen. Im August 2002 erst bestätigte die russische Regierung offiziell 70 Wirtschaftsprojekte im Irak, darunter sieben in der Petrochemie und 14 in den Bereichen Verkehr und Kommunikation mit einem Gesamtwert von 40 Milliarden Euro. Die Verträge wurden im September unterzeichnet. Damit wurde der Irak zum wichtigsten russischen Auslandsmarkt überhaupt, zum wichtigsten Devisenbringer und Hoffnungsträger für einen wirtschaftlichen Aufschwung der russischen Industrie. Zudem erwartet Moskau Aufträge beim Wiederaufbau der irakischen Streitkräfte, etwa die Lieferung von Kampfflugzeugen, Luftabwehrraketen und modernen Radaranlagen.

weiter.....

2.http://www.wams.de/data/2003/03/09/49957.html?s=2

3.http://www.wams.de/data/2003/03/09/49957.html?s=3

[ThaiGuru]

Der Presse kann man also anscheinend auch nicht mehr glauben, die soll die Story mit der Staatshilfe für Banken frei erfunden haben? Wem soll man den noch glauben, den Banken, dem Finanzministerium, oder der Regierung?

Oder hat das Finanzministerium festgestellt, dass das die Bilanzprobleme der Banken ganz einfach "to big to bail" sind?

Gruss

Thaiguru



http://www.reuters.de/news_article.jhtml;jsessionid=FAH11VSH…

Finanzministerium: Keine Pläne für Banken-Hilfe

09 March 2003 12:27 CEST

Berlin (Reuters) - Das Bundesfinanzministerium hat erneut Spekulationen zurückgewiesen, wonach die Regierung den deutschen Banken helfen will.

Ein entsprechender Bericht der "Welt am Sonntag" sei frei erfunden, sagte ein Sprecher des Ministeriums in Berlin. Es gebe keinerlei Pläne für Hilfen, weil es keine Bankenkrise gebe. Auch ein in dem Bericht genannter Gesetzentwurf für eine so genannte "Kreditfabrik" bei der Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau (KfW), die Bearbeitungskosten für Kleinkredite an Mittelständler senken soll, existiere nicht. "Das dementieren wir", sagte der Ministeriumssprecher.

Spekulationen über staatliche Bankenhilfen hatte es bereits gegeben, nachdem Vertreter der Banken sich Ende Februar zu einem Gedankenaustausch mit Bundeskanzler Gerhard Schröder (SPD) getroffen hatten. Bereits damals hatte die Regierung dementiert, dass es Pläne etwa für eine so genannte "Bad bank" gebe, in die faule Kredite staatlich gesichert ausgelagert werden könnten.

[ThaiGuru]

Nachdem ich gerade bei BBC in einem Bericht gelesen habe, dass morgen Montag die deutsche Telecom den "Europe`s biggest ever annual corporate loss" "Europas höchsten je erreichten Firmenverlust" von ca. 25 Milliarden Euro bekanntgeben soll, beneide ich diejenigen Anleger am DAX die long sind überhaupt nicht.

Da bin ich doch mit meinem physischen Gold vollauf zufrieden



http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/2834045.stm

[ThaiGuru]

Nach den Banken, nun auch Finanzprobleme bei den Versicherungen!



http://www.welt.de/data/2003/03/10/50266.html

10. Mär 2003

Eklatante Kapitalschwäche bei vielen Lebensversicherern

Ratingagentur Fitch schließt Insolvenzen nicht aus
Hamburg -

- Zwei Drittel aller Lebensversicherer sind nach einer neuen Studie der Ratingagentur Fitch wegen ihrer schwachen Kapitalausstattung schlecht für den Ernstfall eines weiteren Kursverfalls an den Finanzmärkten gerüstet. Das berichtet das Nachrichtenmagazin "Der Spiegel". Bis Ende März müssten erstmals alle Versicherer die Ergebnisse eines Stresstests bei der Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin) abgeben. "Die Hälfte der Versicherer wird den Test nicht bestehen", so der Ratingspezialist Marco Metzler. Diese müssten dann dem Aufsichtsamt darlegen, welche Maßnahmen zur Wiederherstellung der Risikotragfähigkeit geplant seien.

In der Studie heißt es, spätestens für 2003 würden Abschreibungen in einer Höhe fällig, die für eine "Vielzahl" von Assekuranzen "existenzbedrohend" seien. Es sei eine "massive Zuführung" von frischem Geld notwendig, um Zahlungsfähigkeit und Stabilität zu garantieren.

Falls dies nicht geschehe, seien Insolvenzen möglich.

Die Studie prognostiziert zudem, dass die Überschussbeteiligung 2004 "sehr nahe an das gesetzliche Mindestniveau" fallen werde. Dieses Niveau liege, je nach Zeitpunkt des Vertragsabschlusses, zwischen 3,25 und vier Prozent.

Fitch, die weltweit drittgrößte Ratingagentur, begründet diese Vorhersagen damit, dass sich die Aktienmärkte wohl nicht durchgreifend erholen würden und die Zinsen auf Talfahrt blieben. Beides lasse die Reserven der Lebensversicherer immer weiter schrumpfen. Nach Schätzungen der Studie waren bereits Ende 2002 die Summen der Lasten und Abschreibungen mit 45 bis 50 Mrd. Euro größer als das Volumen der Reserven (zehn bis 15 Mrd. Euro).

Die Ratingagentur hat auf Basis der Geschäftsberichte für 2001 bei 105 Lebensversicherern überprüft, wie es um die finanzielle Ausstattung mit Sicherheitsmitteln bestellt war. Gemäß dieses Kriteriums würde demnach nur rund ein Drittel der Firmen mindestens als "gut" gelten; bei knapp der Hälfte lautet das Urteil "schwach". dpa

Artikel erschienen am 10. Mär 2003

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.sonntagsblick.ch/PB2G/PB2GA/pb2ga.htm?snr=47583

Artikel vom 8. März 2003 / Quelle: SonntagsBlick

Heute beginnt Saddams letzte Woche

VON CARL JUST

BAGDAD/WASHINGTON – Saddams Tage am Tigris sind gezählt – so oder so. Bereits am Mittwoch könnte US-Präsident George W. Bush den Sturm auf Bagdad befehlen. Die amerikanischen und britischen Militärs rüsten zu einer blutigen Schlacht.

«Vergessen Sie den Golfkrieg von 1991 mit seinen ‹chirurgischen Eingriffen›! Diesmal wird es massive Flächenbombardements geben, wohl auch zehntausende von zivilen Opfern», erklärte ein Diplomat, welcher die Invasionspläne des Pentagons im Detail kennt, am Samstag gegenüber SonntagsBlick. Die Amerikaner warnen mittlerweile Journalisten davor, in der irakischen Hauptstadt auszuharren: «Die Reporter sollten sich überlegen, ob Bagdad in den nächsten Wochen ein guter Ort ist», erklärte ein Pentagon-Sprecher.

Alarmiert ist man auch in Bern: Der Nachrichtendienst im VBS rechnet mit einem «Kriegsbeginn zwischen dem 12. und 15. März», zwischen Mittwoch und Samstag dieser Woche. Ein dringend benötigter Spezialist des ABC-Labors in Spiez, der in diesen Tagen nach Bagdad reisen sollte, wird vorerst nur bis Zypern verlegt – aus Sicherheitsgründen.

Am Dienstag schon wollen Blair und Bush ihre neue Irak-Resolution im UN-Sicherheitsrat zur Abstimmung bringen. Diese soll Saddam eine letzte Frist setzen, um bis zum kommenden Montag, 17. März, «vollständig abzurüsten». Weil sich Frankreich, Deutschland, Russland und China gegen diese zweite Resolution sperren, dürfte sie im Sicherheitsrat kaum die erforderliche Mehrheit finden. US-Regierungskreise liessen am Samstag durchblicken, dass bei einem Scheitern der Resolution die Invasion auch sofort beginnen könnte – also bereits ab Mittwoch.

«Die Amerikaner haben genug von Saddams Hinhaltetaktik, in Washington wird jetzt jeder zum Hardliner», erklärte ein Sicherheitsberater noch am Freitag gegenüber SonntagsBlick. «Saddam Hussein hat in den vergangenen drei Wochen die letzte Chance verspielt, physisch zu überleben.»

Nahost- und Terrorexperten im Dienste des Pentagon warnen seit Wochen vor «unkalkulierbaren Risiken», welche der Angriff auf den Irak mit sich bringt. Tatsächlich könnte die Invasion im ganzen Nahen und Mittleren Osten zu einem Flächenbrand mit schwer begrenzbaren Kriegen und Bürgerkriegen führen. Und: Falls Bush tatsächlich in Bagdad einmarschiert, droht eine neue Welle weltweiten Terrorismus. Die Gotteskrieger der Al-Qaida zwischen Hindukusch und Mittelmeer würden den Angriff der «Ungläubigen» zum Vorwand nehmen für neue, blutige Anschläge in den USA und in aller Welt.

Deshalb hatten zuletzt sogar die Militärs im Pentagon Bedenken. Eine Gruppe von Sonderdiplomaten und Agenten, unterstützt von einzelnen arabischen Nachbarn, versucht verzweifelt, Saddam und seinen Clan doch noch ins Exil zu drängen – im letzten Moment. Noch allerdings hat Saddam für solche Pläne nur Hohn und Spott übrig: «Ich werde bis zur letzten Kugel Seite an Seite mit meinem Volk kämpfen», lässt er ausrichten.

«Wir hatten das Taxi bereit, Saddam hätte nur noch einsteigen müssen», erklärt ein Diplomat. «Doch statt zu kooperieren, lieferten Saddam und sein Umfeld nur Lügen und Bullshit.» Und er macht keinen Hehl daraus, was Saddam und seinen Helfern nach einem Einmarsch blüht: «Die Todesstrafe, natürlich.»

In der irakischen Bevölkerung macht sich derweil Resignation breit, jedermann hat sich eingedeckt mit Notvorräten, Wasser und Benzin. «Es wird jetzt wirklich kritisch – und wir sind alle müde und erschöpft vom monatelangen Wechselbad zwischen Angst und Hoffnung», erklärt ein Bagdader Geschäftsmann am Telefon.

Die Schweizer Aussenministerin Micheline Calmy-Rey warnt die USA noch einmal vor einem Alleingang: «Wenn schon, müsste die Uno die Ziele und Mittel der Gewaltanwendung definieren und nicht einzelne Staaten, die dazu gar kein Mandat haben», erklärte sie in der «Basler Zeitung». «Wenn die Macht entscheidet und nicht das internationale Recht, wird es gefährlich für die kleinen Leute – und für kleine Länder wie die Schweiz auch.»

Die Strategie, der Sturm, die Folgen

Die neuen Herren von Bagdad

WASHINGTON/BAGDAD – Drei US-Generäle und 25 Millionen Iraker: Wenn Bush den Krieg befiehlt, liegt das Schicksal des Zweistromlandes für Monate in den Händen von amerikanischen Militärs.

weiter....

http://www.sonntagsblick.ch/PB2G/PB2GA/pb2ga.htm?snr=47584

TOMMY FRANKS: Soll den Irak-Krieg führen

WILLIAM S. WALLACE: Kommandiert die Bodentruppen.

JOHN ABIZAID: Bald US-Statthalter in Bagdad?

[ThaiGuru]

Der Goldpreis steigt!

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.swissinfo.org/sde/Swissinfo.html?siteSect=143&sid…

Montag 10.03.2003, MEZ 10:56

Deutsche Telekom 2002 mit Rekord-Verlust von 24,6 Mrd. Euro

HANNOVER - Die Deutsche Telekom hat 2002 einen Rekordverlust von 24,6 Mrd. Euro (36,2 Mrd. Franken) gemacht. Das ist der höchste Verlust, den ein europäisches Unternehmen jemals verbucht hat. Grund dafür waren immense Abschreibungen.

Erfreulicher fiel der Umsatz aus: Er stieg um 11,1 Prozent auf 53,7 Mrd. Euro, wie die Telekom bekannt gab. Das um Sondereinflüsse bereinigte Betriebsergebnis vor Zinsen, Steuern, Abschreibungen und Amortisationen (EBITDA) stieg von 15,1 Mrd. auf 16,3 Mrd. Euro.

Der Schuldenberg, der Ende September 2002 noch 64,3 Mrd. Euro betragen hatte, konnte auf 61,1 Mrd. Euro gesenkt werden. Zu diesem Zweck wurden Aktien der Internet-Tochter T-Online und weitere Beteiligungen verkauft. Insgesamt wurden 120 Millionen T-Aktien veräussert.

Darüber hinaus habe die anhaltend positive Entwicklung des Dollar-Wechselkurses zum Abbau des Schuldenbergs beigetragen, hiess es weiter. Die Telekom will die Schulden bis Ende Jahr auf 50 Mrd. Euro abbauen.

Mit ihrem Rekord-Verlust stellte die Deutsche Telekom sogar die französischen Unternehmen Vivendi Universal und France Télécom in den Schatten: Vivendi hatte letztes Jahr einen Netto-Verlust von 23,3 Mrd. Euro eingefahren, France Télécom kam auf 20,7 Mrd. Euro. 100917 mar


SDA-ATS

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.swissinfo.org/sde/Swissinfo.html?siteSect=143&sid…

Montag 10.03.2003, MEZ 11:14

Powell warnt Frankreich vor Konsequenzen eines Vetos

WASHINGTON - US-Aussenminister Colin Powell hat die französische Regierung vor den Konsequenzen eines Vetos im UNO-Sicherheitsrat gewarnt. Ein Veto könnte «zumindest kurzfristig ernste Auswirkungen auf die bilateralen Beziehungen» haben, sagte er.

Im US-Fernsehsender Fox betonte Powell, die USA seien einer Mehrheit von neun oder zehn Stimmen im Weltsicherheitsrat für eine neue Irak-Resolution sehr nahe.

Dagegen berichtet die «New York Times» in ihrer Internetausgabe unter Berufung auf Regierungsbeamte, dass es den USA trotz aller diplomatischer Bemühungen am Wochenende nicht gelungen sei, die nötigen neun Stimmen im Sicherheitsrat zusammenzubekommen.

Powell und Sicherheitsberaterin Condoleezza Rice gaben zu verstehen, dass US-Präsident George W. Bush im Fall eines Scheiterns der ultimativen Resolution eine «Koalition der Willigen» in einen Krieg gegen den Irak führen würde.
Die USA streben eine UNO-Abstimmung schon am Dienstag mit einem anschliessenden Ultimatum an den Irak bis zum 17. März an. Bush glaubt nach einen Telefongespräch mit dem russischen Präsidenten Wladimir Putin, dass Russland kein Veto gegen die neue Irak-Resolution einlegen, sondern sich enthalten wird.

Die noch unentschlossenen Mitglieder des Weltsicherheitsrats werden vor der möglicherweise entscheidenden Irak-Abstimmung intensiv von Kriegsbefürwortern und - gegnern umworben.
So ist der französische Aussenminister Dominique de Villepin zu Gesprächen über die Irak-Abstimmung im UNO-Sicherheitsrat in Angola eingetroffen. De Villepin wollte unmittelbar nach seiner Ankunft in der Hauptstadt Luanda mit dem angolanischen Präsidenten José Eduardo Dos Santos zusammentreffen.

Anschliessend wird er in die beiden anderen afrikanischen Mitgliedesländer im UNO-Sicherheitsrat, Kamerun und Guinea, weiterreisen. Alle drei Staaten zählen zu den unentschlossenen Mitgliedern des Sicherheitsrates. 101003 mar


SDA-ATS

[ThaiGuru]

Risiko!!!

Für diejenigen unter Euch die gerne mit dem Goldpreis etwas rumzocken wollen, weil sie die Langzeitvorteile eines Gold Investments in physisches Gold immer noch nicht erkennen können, oder diejenigen unter Euch die einen Gold Put zur Beruhigung ihrer strapazierten Nerven benötigen, als Absicherung ihrer Goldpositionen, gegen einen verschiedentlich in der Presse, und von einigen Usern im Gold Board angekündigten Goldpreis Kollaps nach einem evtl. kurzen Irakkrieg, poste ich einmal eine Auswahl neu aufgelegter Gold-Put`s, und Call`s.

Persönlich werde ich es tunlichst unterlassen gegen meine eigene Ueberzeugung zu handeln. Ich bleibe "ohne" Put-Absicherung in Gold und auch Silber investiert. Physisches Gold, und Silber ist für mich eh schon Absicherung pur. Ich Kann auch gut ohne Nervenkitzel auskommen, und gehe davon aus, dass abgesehen von einer kurzen Korrektur im Falle eines Irak Krieges, eine Korrektur sehe ich allenfalls etwa nach 1-3 Tagen nach Kriegsbeginn eintreten, die Gold, und auch vor allem die Gold Minen Aktien wieder anziehen werden, um aus fundamentalen Gründen neue Hoch`s zu erreichen.

Diejenigen unter Euch, die wie ich von steigenden Goldpreisen ausgehen, sollten m.A.n. sowiso echtes Gold als Langfristanlage kaufen, und keine Gold Calls die mit einem Zeitlimit versehen sind.

Doch jeder-Mann/Frau sollte seine eigene Entscheidung treffen!

Wer eine solche Absicherung durch Gold Puts machen möchte, sollte sie m.E.n. noch vor dem 13. März abschliessen

Gruss

ThaiGuru



http://www.optionsscheinecheck.de/news/default_an.asp?sub=3&…


Puts und Calls auf den Goldpreis
optionsscheinecheck.de

HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt hat neue Warrants auf den Goldpreis begeben. Die emittierten Puts und Calls haben einen basispreis von 340,00 bis 500,00 US-Dollar.

Underlying WKN Typ Laufzeit Basispreis Bezugsverh.

Gold 770840 Amerik. Call 18.11.2003 340,00 USD 0,1000
Gold 770845 Amerik. Call 18.05.2004 340,00 USD 0,1000
Gold 770850 Amerik. Put 18.11.2003 360,00 USD 0,1000
Gold 770851 Amerik. Put 18.05.2004 360,00 USD 0,1000
Gold 770841 Amerik. Call 18.11.2003 380,00 USD 0,1000
Gold 770846 Amerik. Call 18.05.2004 380,00 USD 0,1000
Gold 770842 Amerik. Call 18.11.2003 420,00 USD 0,1000
Gold 770847 Amerik. Call 18.05.2004 420,00 USD 0,1000
Gold 770843 Amerik. Call 18.11.2003 460,00 USD 0,1000
Gold 770848 Amerik. Call 18.05.2004 460,00 USD 0,1000
Gold 770844 Amerik. Call 18.11.2003 500,00 USD 0,1000
Gold 770849 Amerik. Call 18.05.2004 500,00 USD 0,1000
.

[niemandweiss]

das kommt leider etwas spät ...
bzw. welche Richtung schlägst Du denn jetzt vor ?

[ThaiGuru]

@niemandweiss

N A C H - O B E N!

[MoCashMoHappyness]

@thai guru

das sehe ich ähnlich, der goldpreis wird zwar noch unten gehalten, aber lange wird das treiben nicht fortgehen können...

[matthiasch]

Moin

Habe heute Silber zu ~4,69$ gekauft.

Bei den Minen bin ich mir noch etwas unschlüssig. Ist Durban bei 3,18$ (-> ~2,89€) schon ein Kauf? Zuletzt habe ich Durban bei 2,4€ gekauft, allerdings zu früh bei 3,2€ wieder verkauft und somit den Anstieg auf 4,5€ verpasst.
Damals waren das aber 2,3$! Deswegen meine Unschlüssigkeit...


Rat"schläge" gefordert!!

Gruß matthiasch, der alles zum Spottpreis haben möchte

[niemandweiss]

[niemandweiss]

gold schwarz / Hui blau

[ThaiGuru]

Komme gerade zurück, und sehe erfreulicherweise, dass der Goldpreis wieder auf zur Zeit fast 355 Dollar gestiegen ist, die Börsen weiter gecrasht haben, und das heute einmal mehr, gleich weltweit. Den Tages Rekord hält der DAX mit minus 4,22 %, gefolgt vom Swiss Market SSMI, mit minus 3.82%. http://finance.yahoo.com/m2?u

Dann der Blick auf mein Gold, und Silber Aktien Depot!

Ganze 3 Minen sind bei mir heute gestiegen, Bema Gold, KING`S BAY GOLD, und ATLAS MINING.

Einige weitere Minen sind unverändert geblieben.

Doch ausser BGO sind alle volatilen Minenaktien gefallen, zum Teil sogar stark, wie HL -14,77%, CDE `8,09%, DROOY -7,25%, KGC -5.69%, GFI -5,66%, HMY -5,63%, CALVF -4.59%, GG -4,49%, etc.

Daraufhin negative Presse Meldungen zu den einzelnen Minen gesucht, Fehlanzeige!

Waraum sind die Minen also bei einem gestiegenen Goldpreis so stark nach unten korrigiert?

Die genauen Gründe sind mir auch nicht bekannt. Dass im Anwärtsstrudel der USA/Canada Börsen Abgabedruck auf Minen entstanden sein wird ist anzunehmen, dass die Anleger verunsichert sind von den vielen gezielten Meldungen, dass der Gold, und Minen Preise nach Beginn des Irak Krieges, falls er denn wirklich kommt, einbrechen würden, hat sicher auch etwas mitgespielt. Doch Abgabedruck bei den Hauptminen Aktien in diesem Ausmas, noch bevor überhaupt ein Krieg ausgebrochen ist, ist ganz sicher nicht der Hauptgrund. Bitte die Chartisten unter den Gold Bugs um Vergebung, doch im Falle des manipulierten Goldpreises, kann ich Argumente charttechnischer Art, ebenfalls nicht für das Nachgeben der Goldaktien als hauptsächliche Erklärung akzeptieren.

Das ganze Preisverhalten der Minenaktien, trägt für mich eindeutig die Handschrift des Gold Cabals. Speziell auch darum weil die Korrektur es fast nur bekannte Minenfirmen der 1., und 2. Reihe traf, und keine aus der 3. Reihe. Genaueres später.

Hat zwar heute weh getan Gold steigen, und die Goldaktien fallen zu sehen, doch dieses Verhalten der Minen heute, ist meiner Ansicht nach, mit Sicherheit nicht fundamental begründet. Demzufolge müssen bei einem Goldpreis von die 350.-/355.- Dollar, oder mehr eigentlich sehr schnell wieder steigen. Anders würde es nur aussehen falls das Cabal jetzt schon weiss, was sie mit dem Goldpreis in den nächsten Tagen anstellen werden. Ob es ihnen gelingt, wage ich trotz allem stark zu bezweifeln. Darum bleibe ich persönlich weiterhin investiert.

Mein Gold, und meine Gold Aktien kriegt das Gold Cabal sicher nicht!

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.usagold.com

The Afternoon Gold Report...

by Jon Warner

March 10, 2003 (usagold.com)

New York spot gold settled higher at $354.20 an ounce up $4.10 an ounce from Friday’s close. In the opening presentations at the annual Prospectors & Developers Association of Canada in Toronto, Gold Fields Mineral Services Ltd. analyst Bruce Alway said "If the (Iraq) crisis is resolved quickly, this could result in a massive round of profit taking, however, even if there is a downward correction in the price, we consider that the external economic and political factors will mean that sentiment toward the gold price will remain positive." Alway said volatility was expected to remain extremely high. The forecast is for bullion to trade in a $330-$370 an ounce range for the first half of 2003, with an average price of $350, just about where spot gold is currently trading around $351. But a knee jerk spike could easily take it to $400 an ounce or higher before the air came out of the war premium. Producer "de-hedging," or the reduction of mining companies` hedge positions, should add roughly 100 metric tons to total gold demand, Alway said. Gold Fields expects mine production to contract in the coming few years. The fall is likely to be " modest" but will support the gold price. Alway said gold has not yet appreciated enough to stop a projected decline in mine production since the slide in prices in the late 1990s made it uneconomical for many inefficient mines to operate. According to his calculations, with gold at $350/ounce, a number of gold development projects start to look attractive again, but even at $375/ounce gold production would drop 25 tonnes year to year. Gold at $325 could mean a 100-tonne drop in production year to year. World gold mine production was about 2,600 tonnes in 2001 and an estimated 2,543 tonnes in 2002, according to GFMS. Barrick vice president for exploration, Alex Davidson, made similar warnings in a presentation at the PDAC here that the gold mining industry has invested so little in exploration that current reserves could be depleted in ten years. ”Given that most mining projects require 5-8 years from discovery to production, [the industry] is not currently funding exploration at a level to replace reserves,” cautioned Davidson. “We also need to attract more speculative capital back into the industry to fund junior exploration which has historically provided a pipeline of new projects.”

London gold was fixed this afternoon at $354.45 an ounce, up from $353.10 an ounce at the morning fixing. "It is difficult for us to imagine anyone seriously shorting this market when the war drums are beating ever louder," Prudential-Bache International said in a report. An analyst at thebulliondesk.com specialist website, James Moore, noted that gold prices rose after the greenback tumbled to fresh four-year lows against the euro and came under pressure against a range of other European currencies. He added that the market was buoyed further by hawkish remarks from US President George W Bush who turned the screws on Iraqi President Saddam Hussein in an effort to muster international support for a US-led war. "There is plenty of capacity for speculators to add to their long positions in gold but no sign of any driver to trigger such activity," said analyst John Reade of UBS Warburg. "Further volatile trading conditions look likely in the days and weeks to come," said Reade. "The funds taking a long-term view of the gold market are unlikely to be shaken out by the short-term volatility, or by any further reduction in price in response to the short-term effects of geopolitical newsflow," said one market player. "Core longs are taking a positive gold stance on the basis of the improved risk-reward profile of the metal now that the dollar is offering a negative real return and the global economic recovery is stuttering, at best," he added.

Earlier spot gold closed at 353.375 an ounce on Monday in Hong Kong, down $2.675 from Friday`s close of $356.05. Spot gold leaped to $354 with the opening of the Tokyo Commodity Exchange on buying by yen-based traders. But the flurry of activity cooled quickly and gold eased to trade in a narrow range of $353-353.50, said Pauline Hung, chief bullion dealer at Scotia Mocatta in Hong Kong. "People are now discounting any attack on Iraq but gold is very susceptible to any positive news," said Martin Mayne, a bullion dealer at NM Rothschild & Sons (Australia) Ltd. Gold is likely to rise later in the week, should the U.N. Security Council pass a resolution to give Iraq until March 17 to comply with all U.N. disarmament demands, said Mayne.

The U.S. dollar weakened against the yen again in spite of intervention by the Finance Ministry on Friday that weakened the Yen by half a percent. "Though there has been speculation that the dollar would be bought back once a war begins, such views are becoming a minority due to poor U.S. economic data," said Katsunori Kitakura, manager of the treasury department at Chuo Mitsui Trust and Banking in Tokyo. Meanwhile, the Nikkei fell as far 7,975.36 before rebounding to settle at 8,042.26, down 1.25 percent -- still its weakest close in two decades. "With war on the horizon almost everyone is looking to sell," said Haruki Takahashi, head of equities dealing at UFJ Tsubasa Securities. "We seem to have found support around the 8,000 level today, but I`m worried about tomorrow," he said.


GEOPOLITICAL NEWS:

Iraq has placed explosives at the Kirkuk oil fields in northern Iraq to prevent them from being taken over in the event of a U.S. invasion of the country, U.S. officials told Reuters on Monday. "There are indications that has taken place," one official said, adding that the movement had occurred "recently." Iraqis had also been seen moving explosives toward oil fields in the south as well as the north, a defense official said. "And that makes us suspicious of their intentions." The United States has been building forces in the Gulf region for a possible war against Iraq over its weapons program. "We certainly have very serious concerns about Saddam Hussein setting fire to the oil fields," another senior U.S. official said.

Britain and the United States plan on Monday to press chief U.N. weapons inspector Hans Blix to admit that he has found a "smoking gun" in Iraq, British newspaper, The London Times reported on Monday. The newspaper said British and U.S. ambassadors plan to demand that Blix reveal more details of an undeclared Iraqi unmanned aircraft, whose existence was only disclosed in a declassified 173-page document circulated by inspectors on Friday.

North Korea fired a cruise missile into the Sea of Japan on Monday, ratcheting up tensions as it tries to force the United States into nuclear negotiations at a time when Washington`s eyes are firmly on Iraq. The United States, which wants to keep the standoff with Pyongyang from hindering its buildup for possible war with Saddam Hussein, had anticipated the launch, the second in as many weeks, and played down its significance.


ECONOMIC NEWS:

U.S. retailers set the stage for another month of sluggish sales on Monday, blaming a late Easter holiday and frigid temperatures for what is shaping up to be a slow March. Like many other retailers, Wal-Mart said a late Easter this year would push demand into April instead of March. Easter falls on April 20 this year, about three weeks later than last year. Retailers were already grappling with slow demand as a soft economy and the threat of war in Iraq sap consumer confidence and spending. To make matters worse, weather hasn`t cooperated either, with temperatures below normal across much of the eastern United States. Wal-Mart said its stores were ready for spring, if only the weather would warm up. In areas where warmer weather has arrived, the retailer said demand looked strong.


Comment: The longer that gold holds above $350 an ounce the more comfortable traders feel about this level providing a floor price. Every time that gold gets battered in the gold pits and holds at this level confidence builds. Gold stocks got battered as investors and hedge funds sold off nearly all stocks. They appear to be happy to get out of the stock market all together. Even so, gold and today especially with platinum at a new high gained ground as investors sought out hard assets in preference to stocks. With deficits exploding, geopolitical tensions rising, and the U.S. dollar collapsing, gold likely has a lot further to go. The dollar is sinking and the weakness can be tied to the weak economic outlook for the U.S., the aggressive Fed monetary policy, foreign policy, and ever-growing U.S. debt. Foreign investors (except Japan) are selling down the U.S. dollar and moving investments to a perceived more stable environment outside the U.S. To some the rally in precious metals may appear over extended but consider that the metals were depressed for years. Many forget that the precious metals were market leaders in the early 1980’s. The rally is only getting started and are poised to be market leaders once again in 2003.

The fundamental case for precious metals remains very strong going forward as producers are now growing ever more concerned over declining production, lack of reserve replacement and fewer active exploration professionals left in the industry (see above).


- Jon H. Warner -


E-Mail the current report to a friend or to yourself.
__________________________
Jon Warner is a professional geologist with nearly 24 years in exploration and project development in both mining and petroleum. Mr. Warner brings to the table an impressive industry contact list, thorough knowledge of the precious metals and energy markets as well as a practical understanding of gold`s role in the private investment portfolio. His strong knowledge in these fields has been demonstrated at the USAGOLD Discussion Forum where he posts on a regular basis as Black Blade.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



We invite you to stay tuned to the gold market through our DISCUSSION FORUM
featuring round the clock gold news & commentary from the public.



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[ThaiGuru]

http://www.nzz.ch/2003/03/10/wi/page-newzzDD4C0DIF-12.html

10. März 2003, 14:20, NZZ Online

Pensionskassen weisen für 2002 Verluste von 10,3% auf
Besser als ausländische Renditen
Eine Studie bestätigt, worüber die Pensionskassen sich seit langem beklagen: Die Kassen mussten im letzten Jahr massive Verluste hinnehmen. Die mittlere Rendite auf ihren Wertschriften betrug minus 10,3%. Der Trend weg von Aktien und hin zu Obligationen als Anlageform hält an.

(sda) Wegen der Börsen- und Finanzmarktflaute haben die privaten und die öffentlich-rechtlichen Pensionskassen in der Schweiz im letzten Jahr hohe Verluste verzeichnet. Die mittlere Rendite der Wertschriften-Anlagen lag bei minus 10,3%. Dies geht aus einer Studie bei 600 Vermögensverwaltern mit einem Gesamtvermögen von 75 Mrd. Fr. hervor.

Die Analyse wurde im Auftrag des Schweizerischen Pensionskassenverbandes (ASIP) von der Beratungsfirma Watson Wyatt vorgenommen und am Montag publiziert. Die Gesamtrendite dürfte leicht besser ausgefallen sein, da in der Studie die direkten Immobilienanlagen nicht berücksichtigt worden sind.

Verschiebung zu Obligationen
Innerhalb der Wertschriftenbestände gab es eine markante Verschiebung in Richtung der vergleichsweise sicheren Obligationen. Der Anteil an Obligationen in Schweizer Franken nahm zwischen Ende 2001 und Ende 2002 von 29,3 auf 33,2% zu. Der Bestand an Obligationen in Fremdwährungen stieg von 12,7 auf 14,2%.

Abgenommen haben demgegenüber - in Anbetracht der Börsenbaisse kaum überraschend - die Aktienbestände. Der Aktienanteil innerhalb des Wertschriften-Portfolios sank bei Schweizer Aktien von 20,6 auf 16,9%. Die Analyse zeigt aber, dass vom Aktienverkauf nur Schweizer Titel betroffen waren. Ausländische Aktien seien vor allem in den letzten sechs Monaten 2002 hinzugekauft worden. Der Anteil belief sich Ende Jahr auf 22,7%.

Vergleichsweise weniger schlecht
Im Vergleich mit ausländischen Pensionskassenmärkten stand die Schweiz laut der ASIP-Medienmitteilung weniger schlecht da. In Grossbritannien beispielsweise hätten die Vorsorgeinstitute nur eine Performance von minus 18,1% in Pfund erreicht. Dieser Unterschied sei auf den geringeren Aktienanteil am Gesamtvermögen der schweizerischen Pensionskassen zurückzuführen.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.welt.de/data/2003/03/11/50547.html

Dienstag, 11. März 2003 Berlin, 00:13 Uhr

GE versteckt 5,25 Milliarden Dollar Pensionsfondsverlust in den Fußnoten

Diskussion um Rechnungslegung der Unternehmensverpflichtungen bekommt in den USA neue Nahrung - Zweitgrößter Konzern der Welt weist Kritik zurück

Fairfield - Die Börsianer in Amerika haben wieder einmal Diskussionsstoff in Sachen Bilanzen. In seinem Geschäftsbericht weist General Electric aus, dass der Pensionssparplan im vergangenen Jahr 806 Mio. Dollar zum Vorsteuergewinn beigetragen habe. Dabei legte der, gemessen an der Marktkapitalisierung, weltweit zweitgrößte Konzern einen erwarteten Ertrag von 8,5 Prozent zugrunde. Tatsächlich büßte der Pensionsfonds aber 5,25 Mrd. Dollar oder 11,67 Prozent ein, das entspricht 29 Prozent vom Vorsteuergewinn des Industriegiganten. Diese Nachricht findet sich auch im Geschäftsbericht - allerdings nur in einer Fußnote, 37 Seiten später.

weiter.....
http://www.welt.de/data/2003/03/11/50547.html

[ThaiGuru]

March 10 – Gold Up $4.10 – Silver $4.64 to $4.68??

Gold Pops Right Back Up/Share Divergence Unsustainable

IF you can withstand this insane, short-term , panic type of gold share selling, you will make a fortune.

Gold’s performance today was extraordinary after the pounding it took by the goon squad on Friday. The audacity of the cabal forces is unprecedented and is revealing to the gold world what GATA has brought to its attention for over four years. The best The Gold Cartel could do today was to keep gold from taking out $355 again. Basically gold was $3/$4 higher since last evening’s trading in Japan. The Cartel’s DO NOT PASS GO flag was raised during the Comex session and that was it for the upside. But, they bad guys could not muster any downside selling pressure.

Unfortunately for The Gold Cartel, the physical market demand for gold is so strong that BIG buyers are waiting in the wings these days to pick up cheap gold on their increasingly predictable attacks. The buyers are numerous and compete with each other on these orchestrated price-bashings. These consumers regard sub-$350 gold as a gift. Consequently, gold doesn’t stay at, or below, $350 for any length of time.

In time past, MIDAS has referred to some of these buyers as Dr. No and Hung FAT. These kind of gold buyers have been eating the lunch of the crooked Gold Cartel for well over a year and are laughing at them these days, for they know where the gold price HAS to go to achieve any kind of price equilibrium. Unfortunately, these physical market buyers care little to nothing about the gold shares.

Over the years, one of the mantras of The Gold Cartel has been to keep gold excitement to a minimum. Since they are having trouble taking gold down, it is clear they are orchestrating an attack on the shares. The S&P warning on the gold shares was like the raising of the margin requirement for spec longs on Comex. It was a signal to attack and that attack has turned the gold share technicals bearish to very bearish. Traders that rely on technical signals and money management rules are forced to sell. That selling momentum is now feeding on itself.

The XAU dropped 2.50 to 64.94, while the HUI was shellacked 6.01 to 119.53 on a substantial gold up day.

The under valuation of the shares to bullion is becoming absurd as the shares are now priced for sub-$300 gold. This is having a demoralizing effect on gold share investors and has calmed down gold fever excitement that was so rampant a month ago. The Gold Cartel and colleagues achieved their desired effect. Don’t you just love the free markets we have in America?

Putting the short-term aggravation aside, the set-up for a coming gold share price explosion could not be better than it is today:

*The disdain of equity markets is growing as stock markets sink all over the world.
*Falling interest rates is gold friendly. As financial chaos increases, interest rates are likely to come down even further.
*Inflation is on the rise in the US, which means we are going into a situation in which the inflation rate is going to far exceed the Fed Fund rate. Dramatic, NEGATIVE interest rates has always been VERY gold bullish.
*How can a war be ultimately bearish? Uncertainty and world tension are likely to grow because of THIS war, not decrease.
*The dollar is in serious trouble.
*The Gold Cartel is running out of gold on the margin to continue their scam.
*Most of the world is turning on the US because of the war. That means most will turn on the dollar too. More oil producing countries are likely to turn to euros for payment of their oil. That will be very gold friendly.
*Commodity prices are going up.
*There is a massive short position in gold. It is only a matter of time before the gold derivatives neutron bomb goes off: BIG TIME!

Gold is headed for the $415 area once it takes out $360. That will be its first stop on its way to $800/$1,000. The move in the gold shares will make the internet share move of years back look rinky-dink. All that need happen is to have the investment world realize where gold is going to and why. The most bearish item for the gold shares is the coming war. The financial media and gold establishment (GFMS) have indoctrinated investors that gold will collapse once the war starts, so many want out ahead of time, especially now that the technicals have turned bearish. The entire scenario is just bizarre.

I have seen market moves like we are experiencing in the gold shares at certain critical junctures in the past. They are called "killer moves." The move down cleans out all stale/weak longs before a giant move on the upside – one that moves further and faster than most anyone could imagine. Stay tuned.

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

Monday March 10 2003

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $4.84, PM $5.07, with world gold at $353.50 and $353. With local taxes now nearly harmonized at 1%, this means Indian prices are comfortably above import point. India should be a steady supporter of world gold in the $350s.

Shrugging off a firmer yen and gold’s NY trouncing, TOCOM made a spirited attempt to take $US gold higher on Mondays’ open, only to be stopped cold by what Reuters describes as

"Arbitrage selling by big Japanese trading houses".

able apparently to access plentiful gold offshore without disturbing the ultra-low gold lease rates.

"Steamed up by Tocom-led buying, gold sped to 354.50 before running out of fuel and trade selling capped the upside. The flurry of alarm came and wilted in the first 15 minutes of trading before market stabilized at 353.75 for rest of the session, not even responding to the expected test-firing of cruise missile into the Sea of Japan by N. Korea."

reports Mitsui-HK.

At the end, $US gold was up $3.30 above the NY Friday close, at $353.50. The active contract closed down 12 yen, but on open interest rose tidily, by the equivalent of 2,661 Comex lots, on volume equal to 26,608 Comex contracts. This continues the recent pattern of quite large open interest increases in relation to volume, taking place in the face of a normally inimical strong yen. It now stands at the equivalent of 134,120 Comex lots. (NY on Friday traded 63,488 lots: open interest was up 1642 at 194598.)

Professional observers were clearly severely shaken by the bushwhacking gold received in NY on Friday. No doubt some had to hurriedly dump trading positions, or like Refco, were stopped out unfavorably. Prospector Asset Management’s Leonard Kaplan, usually at pains to affect omniscience, grumbles testily of

"large movements in prices occurring on rumors, hints of rumors, and blatant fabrications…just the release of a rumor on Friday that the sons of Osama Bin Laden had been captured, was enough to plummet gold prices by $12 in just 3 hours."

HSBC complains:

"The gold price move was out of kilter with the mainstream financial markets – the euro, the dollar and the major bourses did not experience nearly the same volatility."

Events like last Friday are influential beyond their literal price impact of course: Dow Jones reports Australian traders noting:

"…participants, now wary of gold`s stubbornness to rise significantly higher regardless of typically gold-friendly factors and its ability to fall swiftly on any gold-bearish factors, prefer to wait on the sidelines instead of trading aggressively…" and many have probably concluded, along with the gold shares and Mitsui-Sydney that

"there`s some real selling above the market."

Nevertheless, on a day which sees a procession of Japanese Officials threatening unorthodox actions to stem the alarming slide of the Japanese stock market (another 20 year low today) and with the Fed digesting the disturbing economic news of Friday –

" …it is looking increasingly certain that the economy is falling behind the typical recovery path….The odds of the US economy slipping into recession again are rising".

[Bridgewater Daily Observations today] to say nothing of the latest FNM scare, Wartime censorship seems unlikely to restrain gold long.

JB

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

First GATA, then Buffet, now the Fed’s Poole warns:

Reuters

Fed`s Poole-shocks to Fannie, Freddie could spread

Monday March 10, 9:03 am ET

WASHINGTON, March 10 (Reuters) - An unexpected financial shock at either of the top U.S. home finance companies, Fannie Mae (NYSE:FNM - News) or Freddie Mac (NYSE:FRE - News) could inflict heavy damage on the broader U.S. economy, St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President William Poole said on Monday.

"Should either firm be rocked by a mistake or by an unforecastable shock, in the absence of robust contingency arrangements the result could be a crisis in U.S. financial markets that would inflict considerable damage on the housing industry and the U.S. economy," Poole said at a symposium on the two companies, known as government-sponsored enterprises.

Surprises that destabilize financial markets can and do occur with some frequency, Poole said. Because of the scale of the short-term debt obligations of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, a problem at either company would spread quickly, he said.

"A market crisis could become acute in a matter of days, or even hours," Poole said.

The regional Fed president recommended the U.S. government withdraw one of the advantages it gives Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to help expand U.S. homeownership -- the ability to lend either firm billions of dollars. This would make clear to markets that the U.S. government feels no obligation to guarantee the companies` debt.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac should also be required to hold greater capital as a cushion, Poole said.

"My sense is that the firms are vulnerable to nonquantifiable risks because their capital positions are so low," he said.

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

Es crashst heute weiter in ganz Asien!

http://finance.yahoo.com/m2?u

Nikkei 225 jetzt mit einer 7xxx am Anfang!


Gold steigt!

[Saccard]

Gold geht heute unter 350.

Die Minen zeigen es an.

Gruß
S.

[ThaiGuru]

@saccard

#4996

Was macht Dich dabei so sicher dass Gold heute unter 350.- Dollar fällt?

Nur wegen dem Minen Aktien Abverkauf von gestern?


@matthiasch

Du hast physisches Silber gekauft, bravo!

Wird sich sicher noch bezahlt machen.

Minen sollte man jetzt kaufen, und bei allenfalls weiter nachgebenden Preisen aufstocken. Das heisst in zur Zeit "fallenden" Preise. Und wartet bitte nicht darauf, bis die Goldpessimisten im WGold Board wieder bullish werden. Den absoluten Tiefstpunkt des Abverkaufs der Minen, wird eh fast niemand erwischen. Wichtig ist nur der Durchschnitts-Kaufpreis, und der dürfte bei den jetzigen Notierungen im Verhältnis zum Goldpreis von über 350.- Dollar, auf mittlere Sicht gesehen, bei den Goldminen ganz sicher nicht teuer sein. Zudem rentieren einige Goldminen, auf Grund ihrer Dividenden Zahlungen, jetz schon mehr, als Geldanlagen auf der Bank.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten/artikel-1866656.…

GodmodeTrader kurzfristig skeptisch für GOLD

Die Charttechniker vom GodmodeTrader, dem Portal für technische Analyse und professionelles Trading, weisen auf ihr kurzfristig nach wie vor bearishes Bias für den Goldsektor hin.

Der Goldindex ($XAU) steht derzeit bei 64,94 Punkten. Es bestehe noch kurzfristiges Abwärtspotential bis in den Bereich von 61 Punkten. Dort werde sich die weitere kurzfristige Ausrichtung entscheiden. Mindestens werde es jedoch eine technische Gegenreaktion geben.

Der Goldspot steht intraday bei 353 US $ pro Unze. Der Goldpreis stehe im Bereich einer enorm wichtigen charttechnischen Unterstützung im Bereich von 350-355 US $.

Die Experten vom GodmodeTrader weisen darüberhinaus in den aktuellen Trendchecks darauf hin, daß die Intermarketkorrelation zwischen dem EURO/US $ und dem Goldpreis kurzfristig aufgegeben worden sei. Während der EURO/US $ regelkonform aus einer bullishen Konsolidierung nach oben ausbreche, konsolidiere der Goldpreis im Bereich seiner charttechnischen Unterstützung in einem bearishen Muster.

Mittel- bis langfristig führt GodmodeTrader ein bullishes Bias für GOLD.

Quelle : Godmode-Trader.de

© BörseGo

[hotspot33]

Bei der Intermarketkorrelation zwischen dem EURO/US $ tun einem die Augen weh

[hotspot33]

5000

[bluemoons]

Das große Trendbild 2003 /II

http://www.wellenreiter-invest.de/WellenreiterWoche/wellenre…

[matthiasch]

Hab mir gerade wieder DROOY gekauft zu 2,63€

[manfred1_I]

Nochmal, Physisch kaufen an erster Stelle.

an matthiasch

Goldminen sind jetzt auch wieder preiswert.
Ich kann dich verstehen.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten/artikel-1868382.…

Goldpreis unter Druck

Der Goldpreis fiel im heutigen Handel um fast $5 auf das untere Ende der jüngsten Handelsspanne zwischen $353-348, konnte sich aber zuletzt wieder leicht von den Intraday Tiefstständen erholen. Der Goldpreis notiert zuletzt bei $350.70/351.20 je Feinunze und verliert gegenüber Montag um $3.50.

"Gold wurde abverkauft. Es hat wohl mit der Nachricht zu tun, dass - komme was wolle - Frankreich gegen jegliche neue Resolution stimmen wird", sagt ein Händler in London. "Es macht es einfach schwieriger für Bush und Blair, um mit einem Angriff fortzufahren."

© BörseGo

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?GXHC_gx_sessi…

Mar. 11, 2003. 01:00 AM

Kinross Gold expects to miss target in `03
Production for 2004 is on the mark, CEO says Spot price forecast to fall once bombs start falling in Iraq

ALDEN BENTLEY
REUTERS NEWS AGENCY

Kinross Gold Corp. will not hit a 2 million ounce production target this year because a complicated merger did not close until February, but new mines are coming on stream and output will be on target by 2004, CEO Bob Buchan said yesterday.

"The second, third and fourth quarters should be around 500,000 ounces a quarter, so the running rate in 2004 should be 2 million," Buchan said in an interview.

Speaking at Kinross headquarters in Toronto, he said gold prices should continue trending higher if the U.S. dollar stays weak, but prices will remain volatile amid political tensions around the world.

Buchan has steered Kinross through a three-way merger with Canadian producers Echo Bay Mines Ltd. and TVX Gold Inc., turning a trio of small Canadian companies into the world`s seventh-largest miner.

Denver-based Newmont Mining Corp. holds a 14 per cent stake in Kinross and is its largest shareholder.

Buchan said Kinross will be in a position to begin extracting gold from new ore bodies at its Birkachan property in Russia, its Refugio project in Chile and from the reopening of its Kettle River operation in Washington next year.

Some of this will replace production at older operations.

By next year, Buchan said, Russian operations should add 150,000 ounces, Refugio 110,000 ounces and Kettle River 100,000 ounces to the company`s annual output.

"There`s about 200,000-300,000 ounces of resource. We`re starting the next drill program this week and we`re drifting toward it right now," he said of the progress at Kettle River, which was closed in early 2002, but where surveys have found another high-grade deposit of 0.5 ounce per tonne.

"We`ll be in it by August and we expect to be in a position to produce by the end of this year," Buchan said.

He added that one of Kinross`s priorities for 2003 will be proving that its 2 million ounce production profile is legitimate and that it can reach that goal from the assets it already owns.

Any future acquisitions would have to be clearly accretive to the Kinross portfolio and easily defensible, he said.

"You have to step up and try and buy something that, legitimately, Newmont or AngloGold or Barrick would have wanted to buy," he said.

"You are still the small kid on the block, but you have to do something that is clearly defensible from the point of view of being a senior."

Buchan said he would never rule out selling the company.

"Until you are sold, your mantra is `standing still is not an option.`"

With the United States apparently poised to launch a war against Iraq, Buchan said the gold price should go down the day the bombing starts.

But he said the fall of the U.S. dollar to four-year lows against the euro was underpinning gold like a rock. Spot gold hit a 6 1/2-year high at $388.50 (U.S.) an ounce early last month before plunging to $341 two weeks later on profit-taking.

"I believe the trend is up and believe most of the war premium is out of the metal price," he said, predicting that in two months gold will be higher than its current $354.70.

Kinross shares are well leveraged to the gold price and have more than doubled over the past year as gold rallied. They closed at $9.53 on the Toronto Stock Exchange yesterday, down 41 cents.

Kinross stock was as high as $12 last month as gold prices peaked and the merger was finalized.

Buchan said Kinross is shrinking its already small hedge book to reap as much benefit from firmer gold prices as it can.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.globalsources.com/TNTLIST/2003/03/10/eng-interfax…

PBOC plans to allow China`s 4 major banks gold import-export opportunities to relieve shortages

Interfax Information Services, B.V.

March 10, 2003

Shanghai. March 10. INTERFAX-CHINA - The People`s Bank of China (PBOC), the central bank, and the State Economic and Trade Commission (SETC) have applied to the State Council to open platinum trade on the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE), SGE`s Administrative Office Manager Yin Bo told Interfax. Meanwhile the PBOC had agreed in principle to allow the four state-owned commercial banks to conduct gold importing and exporting.

The Shanghai Gold Exchange has been conducting a feasibility study on opening up its floor to platinum trading for quite some time, said Yin. However, Yin admitted there is a way to go before platinum can be traded on the Exchange due to value-added tax issues, which once were responsible for stalling the launch of the gold exchange.

China currently levies a value-added tax of 17% on all commodities trading. The tax, which would have been prohibitive to the margins of prospective gold traders, was finally exempted from gold. The Chinese government agreed to allow gold traders a tax refund once transactions had been cleared of all settlement obligations, paving the way for the launch of the Gold Exchange last October.

It would be logical for the Shanghai Gold Exchange to add platinum to its trading list, since its 100-plus members account for around 80% of the nation`s total platinum purchases, Yin noted.

Platinum import and consumption figures for 2002 have yet to be released. In 2001, Chinese companies imported a total of 40 tons of platinum, accounting for 55% of the world`s total imports, while platinum consumption nationwide exceeded USD 2 bln, the world`s highest.

Meanwhile, Yin also told Interfax that the PBOC had agreed in principle to allow the four state-owned commercial banks to conduct gold importing and exporting. The four state-owned banks are the Bank of China, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, the China Construction Bank and the Agricultural Bank of China.

The move, which will provide a conduit for foreign gold supplies to access the Chinese market, will significantly alleviate the physical gold supply shortages being experienced by the Shanghai Gold Exchange, noted one official, speaking on the condition of anonymity. The Shanghai Gold Exchange is currently off-limits to foreign gold suppliers and buyers. All its 108 members are domestic companies who have passed the exchange`s stringent licensing requirements.

Yin hoped the PBOC initiative would also help dampen gold prices. "For 80-90% of the exchange`s trading days, gold prices trade higher than on international markets," he said. According to statistics released by the Shanghai Gold Exchange, China is experiencing a gold supply shortage of 50-60 tons a year, with that gap likely to widened further over coming years if no measures are taken to increase gold supplies.

-YJ

Daily news feeds (financial and political) from the former Soviet Union, Eastern Europe, and China.

© Interfax Information Services, B.V.

[Saccard]

@Thaiguru

Ich hatte doch gesagt, daß Gold unter 350 geht.

Wie sieht`s mit der Abstimmung aus? Ich denke mal, daß Rußland Veto einlegt (die USA kriegt die Mehrheit). Frankreichs Veto ist nicht sehr geschickt.

Am Ende wird der Krieg "abgewendet" sein und Gold bricht ein (345, 340 oder sogar 330). Morgen gehen die Minen noch mal tiefer. XAU sollte bei 62.8 zum halten kommen, intraday kann`s aber wohl noch tiefer gehen.

Wenn Bush dann angreift (wohl Donnerstag bis Montag), werden wir die Realität bei den Goldminen sehen, nämlich eine schöne Explosion.

Ich beobachte den Goldpreis gar nicht so genau, ist ja ohnehin egal. Über die Minen sagt er gar nichts und Münzen werde ich wohl kaum verkaufen.

Gruß
S.

[ThaiGuru]

Na dann gute Nacht Freunde einer Börsen Rally!

Gold strong buy!



http://news.independent.co.uk/business/news/story.jsp?story=…

Buffett: A big reinsurer will sink

By Our City Staff

11 March 2003

The billionaire US investor Warren Buffett said a large unnamed reinsurer has "all but ceased paying claims", which he said would lead to billions of dollars of write-offs by insurers who bought policies from the company.

Mr Buffett, whose Berkshire Hathaway is the world`s third-largest reinsurer through its General Re unit, did not name the reinsurer. He made the comments in his annual letter to shareholders, which was published on Saturday.

[iu]"One of the world`s largest reinsurers – a company regularly recommended to primary insurers by leading brokers – has all but ceased paying claims, including those both valid and due,"[/i] Mr Buffett wrote. "This company owes many billions of dollars to hundreds of primary insurers who now face massive write-offs." Several reinsurers – companies that take on a share of insurers` risks, for a premium, to help them dilute the effect of large claims – have stopped underwriting in the past year as massive claims, such as those from the World Trade Centre attacks, hit them hard after almost a decade of plunging premium rates.

Analysts speculated that Gerling Global Re, a unit of the troubled German insurer Gerling, was the company referred to.

"A simple process of elimination points to no other likely reinsurer," Chris Winans, an analyst at Williams Capital Group, said. However, a Gerling spokesman said: "We are paying all claims that fall due."

Gerling Global Re stopped underwriting new business six months ago. Gerling moved to sell the unit, but German financial regulators blocked the sale last month, partly over fears that claims would not be paid.

Michael Hallett, at Fox-Pitt Kelton, said:

"The future of Gerling Global Re as a viable claims paying organisation is increasingly uncertain."

Market sources in Germany said Gerling Global Re had not stopped paying claims, although there might be problems with payouts ahead.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.usagold.com

The Afternoon Gold Report...

by Jon Warner

March 11, 2003 (usagold.com)

New York spot gold settled lower at $349.90 an ounce down $4.30 an ounce from yesterday’s close. Gold appears to be stuck in a trading range as "security and flight to quality buyers bid under the $350 level and short-term traders take profits near the $358 level," said John Person, head financial analyst at Infinity Brokerage Services. Despite the latest decline, gold will still be a "favorite" as long as the price holds firmly above the $345 to $350 level, Person said. "People are looking back at history to the first Gulf War [for] price action before, during and after," said Amaury Conti, a gold equity trader at U.S. Global Investors. When the U.S. dropped its first bomb, gold fell $15 or $20, he said, so people "are cautious going into that." Gold becomes more attractive as the price retreats. ``Gold is benefiting from being a safe haven as more people are out looking to buy alternative investments,`` said Michael Guido, head of commodity hedge-fund sales at Societe Generale SA in New York. The decline of gold prices from their high early last month is making the metal more attractive for buyers, Guido said. ``Gold is no longer overbought at these levels, which is another bullish spin for gold,`` Guido said.

``The reality is gold is not expensive at these levels.``

London gold was fixed this afternoon at $348.70 an ounce, down from $353.15 an ounce at the morning fixing. "In light of overnight developments including an alternative second resolution drafted by the undecided members of the Security Council that would spell a month long extension of the March 17 deadline, gold may drift lower in the short term," said analyst John Reade of UBS Warburg. "The market is really trying to make a case out of all the war rhetoric. That is clearly influencing the market, but there is nothing really new coming out," said Peter Hillyard of ANZ investment bank. "Gold`s pretty range-bound, we`ve had some volatility recently and it`s settled down a bit now," said Kevin Norrish of Barclays Capital. "Traders remain reluctant to instigate large positions (in gold) at the moment as they await some kind of break in the stalemate of how to deal with Iraq," said James Moore, from TheBullionDesk. Kevin Crisp of Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein noted investors are also taking advantage of gold`s recent strength and consolidating their gains. "Among the speculative community that accumulated longs in gold early on, some appear to be sitting with their fingers resting on the `take profits` button," he said. "Gold`s major problem at the moment is it is being caught up in short-term market volatility, and lacks any new fundamental story or news of its own," Crisp noted. Although the risk of short-term volatility remains, particularly given the international tensions over Iraq, the fundamentals of the gold industry remain positive. "The mining industry has not invested sufficiently in new capacity to have the option of increasing supply rapidly should prices rise," one market player said. "With supply constrained, and demand expected to remain firm during this time of economic weakness, the long-term price trend is likely to be upward," he added.

Earlier spot gold closed at $352.95 an ounce on Tuesday in Hong Kong, down 43 cents an ounce from Monday`s close of $353.375. Gold drifted lower in light trade in Asia on Tuesday in the absence of any change in the apparent stalemate in the U.N. Security Council over Iraq and despite further weakness in the U.S. dollar. "If there is no fresh news tonight, I think we will see another quiet session," said William Leung, dealer at Standard Bank London in Hong Kong. "It looks like the market thinks the deadline will be extended," Leung said.

The Bank for International Settlements said it will replace the gold franc with the special drawing right as its unit of account from April 1. The special drawing right is an international unit of account defined by the IMF and based on a basket of major currencies. The gold franc has been the BIS`s unit of account since its establishment in 1930. The BIS said it also decided to take steps towards modernising its financial accounting and reporting practices. BIS general manager Andrew Crockett welcomed the introduction of the special drawing right. "Along with a strengthened accounting framework, it will assist in managing the bank`s operations and economic capital more efficiently and enhance the transparency of its accounts," Crockett said. He said the changes will not affect the nature of the BIS`s banking activities and will have no implication for its policy towards its holdings of gold.

GEOPOLITICAL NEWS:

President Bush will push the United Nations Security Council for a vote this week on a U.N. resolution authorizing war against Iraq despite French and Russian veto threats, the White House said on Tuesday. And Bush will oppose any effort to extend the proposed March 17 deadline for Iraqi compliance by a month as some undecided Security Council members have suggested, White House spokesman Ari Fleischer told reporters, calling the idea a "non-starter." U.S. officials said Bush was reluctant to give more time to the diplomatic process because he felt there already had been sufficient time for the international community to determine whether Iraqi President Saddam Hussein has made the strategic decision to disarm his suspected weapons of mass destruction.

The U.N. Security Council`s six undecided nations on the Iraq issue have proposed a 45-day deadline for Baghdad to demonstrate that it is fully meeting its disarmament obligations, Cameroon`s U.N. ambassador said on Tuesday. That would extend by more than a month an ultimatum of March 17 proposed earlier by the United States, Britain and Spain. But British Ambassador Jeremy Greenstock said he did not support an extension beyond the end of the month.

ECONOMIC NEWS:

U.S. chain store sales decreased during the first week of March, a report said on Tuesday. Sales at major U.S. chain stores fell 0.7 percent in the week ended March 8 compared with the same week a year ago, the report said. Sales declined 0.9 percent in the one week ended March 8, compared with the previous month, Instinet Research said in its weekly Redbook report. "Many retailers simply noted that traffic was sparse and customers were reluctant to spend," the report said.

Japan yesterday set the stage for coordinated action by the finance ministry and the Bank of Japan to support the stock market and weaken the yen. The move came after the Nikkei closed at a 20-year low and the currency reached a six-month high of Y116 to the dollar. Senior politicians, bureaucrats and businessmen called for action to support share prices to stave off a possible financial crisis triggered by the exposure of banks and other companies to the market ahead of the end of the financial year. Junichiro Koizumi, prime minister, said the government would "take appropriate steps in co-ordination with the Bank of Japan to avert a crisis". Yasuo Fukuda, chief cabinet secretary, said: "The government and the BoJ must work together."

Comment: Gold continues to keep a tenacious hold around $350 an ounce. As weak speculators and funds get anxious over delays to any resolution of the Iraqi issue and bail out of the market, bargain hunters tend to appear on the scene to scoop up gold as the price approaches $350. This is actually better to have weak hands shaken out of the market and strong hands to take up positions as air is let out of the so-called “war premium”. Over time the market becomes more comfortable with gold at these levels as a solid floor price is established regardless of the geopolitical environment. Gold came under pressure as undecided U.N. Security Council members floated a plan to extend the deadline for Iraqi compliance by another 45 days. Some weak speculators and funds took this as well as a small U.S. dollar and stock market rally as a cue to unload gold positions. Meanwhile physical precious metals sales are reported to be brisk, especially in the Asian markets. In Japan the stock market plumbs new lows almost daily amid desperate Japanese currency intervention measures to weaken the Yen and rumors of imminent nationalization of the insolvent Japanese banking sector. The emerging Chinese economy has created a new wave of eager prosperous precious metals buyers, particularly for gold and platinum bullion and jewelry. As the central Asian “Wedding Season” winds down, those who have waited for lower gold prices are making their purchases as lower prices in the near term are not a certainty. The Chinese central bank, Philippine central bank, and Russian central bank reportedly continue to add gold to official reserves. In the west official mint sales are reportedly very strong over previous years. Gold producers continue to unwind hedgebooks while gold production declines even as exploration budgets remain very light. The fundamental case for accumulating precious metals remains intact.


- Jon H. Warner-


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Jon Warner is a professional geologist with nearly 24 years in exploration and project development in both mining and petroleum. Mr. Warner brings to the table an impressive industry contact list, thorough knowledge of the precious metals and energy markets as well as a practical understanding of gold`s role in the private investment portfolio. His strong knowledge in these fields has been demonstrated at the USAGOLD Discussion Forum where he posts on a regular basis as Black Blade.



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[ThaiGuru]

Na was haben wir denn da noch an positiven Meldungen für`s Gold?

In der heutigen Ausgabe der "Financial Times London", wird berichtet, dass die Pensionskassen Europas ein Manko von sage, und schreibe 456 Billionen € aufweisen, und das nicht etwa total, sondern pro Jahr!!!



http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/Sto…

Europeans need to save an extra €456bn (£315bn) a year!!!! to preserve the level of retirement benefits while holding down the cost of public pensions, Europe’s leading financial services companies claim.

The European Financial Services Round Table, representing institutions such as Deutsche Bank, ABN-Amro, Axa and Barclays, has written to European leaders urging them to speed up the creation of a single market in financial services to help solve Europe’s pensions crisis.




In der deutschen Ausgabe der Financial Times www.FTD.de wird den werten Lesern bereits mitgeteilt, dass der Rentenbeitrag auf 19.9 Prozent erhöht werden soll, und das sich die Einnahmeausfälle bald auf 2 Mrd. Euro summieren könnten.



Rentenbeitrag droht Sprung auf 19,9 Prozent

Aus der FTD vom 12.3.2003

Der Beitrag zur Rentenversicherung droht 2004 erneut dramatisch zu steigen. Die Bundesversicherungsanstalt für Angestellte (BfA) warnt, der Beitrag könnte 2004 auf 19,9 Prozent klettern.

weiter....
http://ftd.de/pw/de/1047394585635.html?nv=hptn

[ThaiGuru]

@saccard

"Ich hatte doch gesagt, daß Gold unter 350 geht."

Gold ist zwar intraday kurz unter 350 Dollar gefallen, geschlossen hat Gold aber über 350.- Dollar lieber "saccard"!

Ansonsten sind wir uns einig.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ocjm1]

@ #5010 von ThaiGuru
danke für die veröffentlichung deines o. g. threads.

dennoch sollten selbständig denkende menschen mittler weile verstanden haben, dass die rentenversicherung wegen unserer bevölkerungsentwicklung nur zu einer alimentierung von bedürftigen bürgern verkommt (siehe aktuelle entwicklung zur arbeitslosenhilfe).

wo soll das geld denn für alle derzeit anspruchsberechtigten herkommen? wer glaubt, daß die jüngere generation, gemäß generationenvertrag, 40 %, 50 % oder noch höhere rentenversicherungsbeiträge bezahlen werden, glaubt auch an den weihnachtsmann.
das system ist pleite.

rette sich wer kann oder besser, man erlebt die zu erwartenden umverteilungskämpfe nicht mehr; option vorher auswandern und großfamilie gründen oder durch fehlende sozialversicherungsleistungen an grippe versterben.

ocjm1

[ThaiGuru]

March 11 – Gold $349.90 down $4.30 – Silver $4.67 up 1 cent

Silver Ready to Rumble

"When your going through hell..keep going."
Winston Churchill

A very tedious, crummy day thanks to The Gold Cartel. I find it ironic that Donald Rumfield, our Defense Secretary, goes on and on how deceptive Saddam Hussein is. True enough. However, when it comes to gold, the US and cabal supporters are just as devious. It is one lie after another. The Fed and US Treasury continue to deny dealing in gold in any form or fashion. Recently, Chris Powell received a letter from Senator Lieberman, which included another letter from the Assistant Treasury Secretary John M. Duncan filled with more denials.

There is no way gold can trade this way over and over again in the US without some kind of official sector participation. To think otherwise, goes against all logic and common sense.

In the Spring of 1999, the IMF wanted to sell its 3,000 tonnes of gold and use the interest on the proceeds to help the poor. President Clinton, Robert Rubin and Lawrence Summers were for it. Thirty-six out of forty-one poor gold producing countries were against it, as were The Black Caucus and the leadership of BOTH the Republican and Democrat parties. The reason for the opposition was obvious. Selling that amount of gold would suppress the price and hurt the economies of those very nations that need aid.

On September 26, the Washington Agreement was announced by fifteen European nations. They agreed to limit their gold sales to 400 tonnes per year and not to expand gold lending.

Gold soared, stressing the western financial system and the strong dollar policy of Robert Rubin. Facing "the abyss," gold was mobilized by The Gold Cartel and gold began to sink lower again.

Then, that October, the IMF met in Santiago Chile. They instructed central bank members to report swapped/lent gold as gold reserves. They did so to deceive the citizens of the world about the amount of gold mobilized to manipulate the price. When the US/IMF couldn’t get their way with the IMF gold sales, they resorted to deception. They knew gold would have to nefariously flow from various central banks to keep gold from rising.

The yearly supply/demand deficit is around 1400 tonnes per year. The Gold Cartel went through more than 3000 tonnes of gold that would have hit the market via IMF gold sales. Any wonder why gold popped through $300 a little over a year ago?

The manipulation of the gold price has devastated many of the economies in sub-Saharan Africa. There is no money to fight their terrible disease problems – 2.6 times the amount of people that were killed in the WTC disaster die every day in that region of the world due to chronic disease problems.

The gold price should, and will be, hundreds of dollars per ounce higher. If that were the case now, 100,000 miners would be back at work. Each miner supports 10 to 12 others. There would be hope, instead of despair. I have seen that despair on my trips to South Africa. The economic multiplier effect of a soaring gold price would be fairly dramatic.

What good could be done by simply letting gold trade freely.

Do you think Bush or Clinton give a rat’s butt? Heck no! They are both led around by the big money, elitist crowd that does what they want, when they want. They just trample people and break the rules to suit their own needs. It is a disgrace. Bush exposes his Christian values. Clinton is extolled by the black community in the US. When it comes to sub-Saharan Africa, Christian values and concern for blacks have been thrown out the window by these two US Presidents.

If that’s not bad enough, they are taking America down too as a result of the price rigging operations. Without the gold rig, we wouldn’t have had such a big bubble, one that is now bursting causing significant economic pain to the average American.

It’s a sad time, losers all around.

When we came in today, the NIKKEI was trashed below 8,000 to 7862, down 179. All the European bourses were lower except the one in Britain, which was flat. The dollar was lower and so was gold. The cabal then took it down below $350 and sat on it all during the Comex session. Firm physical buying showed up once again to stem the decline.

Nothing else to say except I haven’t seen morale this low among our gold crowd in a very long time. Maybe that’s a sentiment positive?

Silver continues to hold ground and creep up. Seems to me it wants to really roar higher, any day now. If May takes out $4.75, we should have some serious fireworks.

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SV/53

The Morgan Stanley traders are calling for $6 silver, citing that silver producers are going to hold back on their production.

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

Tuesday March 11, 2003

Indian ex duty premiums: AM $7.66, PM $7.35, with world gold at $353 both times. Very high: well above legal import levels. The Bombay Bullion Association today announced, according to Ross Norman’s illimitable thebulliondesk.com site, a replacement for the historic ten tola bar: the Indian trade is rapidly responding to the duty changes of a week last Friday. See:

http://www.deepikaglobal.com/ENG5_sub.asp?ccode=ENG5&newscod…

Despite another 2.24% slip in the Japanese stock market – another 20 year low – TOCOM was quiescent. Platinum, Oil and Kerosene contracts attracted far more attention. Apparently constant hammering of the active contract by arbitraging Trade Houses has got the message through: on the equivalent of only 17,362 Comex contracts, down 36.9% from Monday, the active contract rose only4 yen; $US gold fell 10c: but once again open interest edged up: by the equivalent of 592 Comex lots. (NY yesterday traded 26,797 contracts: open interest fell 1,260 lots.)

However, a story in Friday’s Nihon Keizai Shimbun supports the impression that the Japanese public is indeed accumulating gold, albeit as a minor aspect of a general move away from Japanese financial system risk:

"Gold has also become a hot investment among affluent individuals. Tanaka Kikinzoku Kogyo KK, a major gold dealer, reports selling 155 boxes of gold coins so far this year, after posting sales of 530 boxes in 2002. Some of the boxes, which contain 500 one-ounce coins, cost as much as 25 million yen. It is not unusual for people to buy gold ingots worth several tens of millions of yen, said a manager at Tanaka Kikinzoku."

"Because of its stable price, gold normally grows popular in times of inflation. Now gold is selling because investors fear the value of key currencies will fall due to the looming prospects of war and declining credit ratings of major countries"

"One US bank, the major seller on Friday, was a continual offer above $355/oz."
says UBS Warburg of yesterday’s trading.

Speaking of yesterday, Investec remarks

"All of the above should have translated into a better recovery in the gold price. …Consistent fund buying throughout the day did not affect the price with the bulk of the volume being acquired very easily at the `higher numbers`…."

Sogen contributes:

"Gold lease rates fell again this week…. The one-year is struggling to remain at 30 bp, and lending must now stretch over 8 years to even hope for a return of more than 2% !... the market is weighed down by liquidity."

In considering this last piece of information, it should be remembered that there is no obligation on bullion holders to lend. Cash demand deposits with banks incur credit risk, and so arguably should not be left idle. This is not so with bullion held in vaults. So why lend/take credit risk at such low rates?

Clearly a major seller has decided to make a stand in the mid $350s. Various informed parties consequently feel emboldened to test stops and attempt raids. Given the state of the world, and particularly the posture of the very independent and crucial Indian market, the scope for this tactic seems limited.

JB

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

Is the Fed anticipating some problems in the gold market:

The Federal Reserve Board on Tuesday requested public comment on a proposal to modify a condition in the Board`s Regulation Y in order to allow bank holding companies engaged in permissible derivatives activities to transfer title to commodities underlying derivative contracts on an instantaneous, pass-through basis.
The Board will publish its proposed rule in the Federal Register shortly. Comment is requested by April 21, 2003.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/BoardDocs/Press/bcreg/2003/200…

I am partial to the better exploration companies such as Samex Mining, J-Pacific Gold, X-Cal Resources, etc. My reasoning is that we have a gold rush coming that will dwarf all the other ones in history. There will be a mad scramble to find gold supply, as the gold price soars. There just isn’t enough available gold in the ground to meet the building demand. Because companies like Barrick Gold suppressed the price for so long, exploration to find future supply has been nil. No sense finding gold, if you will lose money mining it.

Speaking of Barrick:

Gold reserves face depletion, Barrick warns

Urges producers to spend on exploration

By WENDY STUECK
MINING REPORTER
Tuesday, March 11, 2003

TORONTO -- Today`s gold reserves could be depleted in 10 years unless major producers start pouring more money into exploration for new deposits, the head of exploration for Toronto-based Barrick Gold Corp. said yesterday.

"The current state of affairs in exploration spending is untenable for the health of the industry," Alex Davidson, Barrick`s senior vice-president of exploration, told delegates to the Prospectors and Developers Association of Canada annual convention, being held this week in Toronto. "The big companies need to spend more on exploration -- or else, at current annual production rates, reserves will be depleted in 10 years."

Mr. Davidson said the industry also needs to attract more speculative capital back into junior mining companies, which have historically provided a pipeline of new projects.

The past five years have been the harshest in nearly three decades for exploration spending, he added, as historically low metal prices, a decline in investor confidence and industry consolidation all contributed to lower exploration spending.

Faced with declining reserves, gold companies bought or merged with competitors. But that consolidation, while improving reserves in the short term, hurt exploration as merged companies slashed exploration budgets and projects.

Before Denver-based Newmont Mining Corp. bought Australian producer Normandy Mining Ltd. in 2002, the two companies had combined exploration budgets of $111-million (U.S.), Mr. Davidson said. Post-merger, that dropped to $73-million.

Similarly, Barrick and U.S. rival Homestake Mining Co. had combined exploration budgets of $149-million before Barrick bought Homestake in 2001. Post-merger, that dropped to $104-million, Mr. Davidson said.

Over all, exploration spending by gold producers fell from a peak of about $3.3-billion in 1997 to $900-million in 2001, he said.

Consolidation may also contribute to a shortage of skilled exploration workers, he added. "Fewer companies translates into fewer jobs, which translates into an ever-shrinking talent pool."

Companies have also been spending less on exploration-related research and development, Mr. Davidson said. That could hurt producers because they have been mining easily accessible deposits, whereas new techniques and equipment could help profitably mine other ore.

"With most of the low-hanging fruit already picked, new technology could be crucial" to mining many deposits, he said.

Mr. Davidson, credited with the discovery of an 6.5-million-ounce gold deposit at Alto Chicama project in Peru, a find that Barrick announced last year, said there have been some positive consequences for exploration from the consolidation rush. Deals have resulted in companies having access to larger land packages and exploration sites in new countries.

A higher gold price is driving some new exploration spending, but the industry needs to see a $350-an-ounce level for five or six years to generate the kind of exploration that will lead to significant new large deposits, he said.

"Given that most projects on average require five to eight years from discovery to production, we are not currently funding exploration at levels required to replace reserves," he said.

-END-

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

That’s the name of the gold game. The reinforcements called in by new Treasury Secretary Snow need to be carried out on that GATA stretcher again. Ever since he took over the Treasury reigns, gold has been slammed and tightly controlled.

World stock markets seem near a state of collapse. The most bullish factor the US market has going for it is the pending war. Investors aren`t selling because they are afraid they will miss the buying panic rally when the world starts. What crazy thinking! They ought to be more concerned about losing all their hard earned money in a market crash.

The DOW failed late closing at 7535, down 44. The DOG sank another 7 to 1271. The S&P is resting right at 800 and the Transportation Index IS collapsing.

The price action of these bellwether stocks is terrible:

JP Morgan Chase: $20.75, down .69 cents (approaching its critical $20 level again)
GM: $29.92, down 77 cents
AIG: $44.87, down 86 cents

The economic news is AWFUL:

March 10
— By Bill Rigby

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Billionaire investor Warren Buffett said a large unnamed reinsurer has "all but ceased paying claims," which he said would lead to billions of dollars of write-offs by insurers who bought policies from the company.

His comments, along with general unease over the economy and a potential war, sent insurance stocks sharply lower in Europe and the United States.

Buffett, whose Berkshire Hathaway Inc. is the world`s third-largest reinsurer, through its General Re unit, did not name the reinsurer in comments made in his annual letter to shareholders, published on Saturday.

"One of the world`s largest reinsurers -- a company regularly recommended to primary insurers by leading brokers -- has all but ceased paying claims, including those both valid and due," Buffett wrote. "This company owes many billions of dollars to hundreds of primary insurers who now face massive write-offs."….-END-

New York, March 11 (Bloomberg) -- Magellan Health Services Inc., a provider of mental-health care, filed for bankruptcy to cope with almost $1.5 billion in debt and said most of its creditors have agreed to support a recovery plan.

``It was pretty shocking how quickly it all went south on them,`` said John Buckingham, president of Al Frank Asset Management Inc., a value investor that manages about $165 million and held 116,500 Magellan shares in December.

``Frankly, we were flabbergasted.``

-END-

Washington, March 11 (Bloomberg) -- The biggest U.S. state budget shortfalls since World War II are forcing legislatures to raise taxes and cut spending, threatening to cancel out the benefits of the Bush administration`s economic stimulus plan, economists said.

California is facing a record deficit of $34.6 billion; New York, $11.5 billion; and Texas, $9.9 billion over the next two years. Governors are firing workers, cutting back aid to schools and cities and raising fees and taxes. Such steps will probably total $80 billion to $100 billion, creating a drag on the economy about the same size as the boost that President George W. Bush wants to provide by cutting federal taxes, economists said.

``We`re set for a really negative impact on the U.S. economy,`` said Joseph Stiglitz, a Columbia University professor and a Nobel-prize winning economist. ``The states and localities are facing massive shortfalls.`` –END-

Detroit, March 11 (Bloomberg) -- Shares of Ford Motor Co., the world`s second-largest automaker, touched a 10 1/2-year low after a Goldman Sachs analyst said weakening U.S. auto sales will hit the company harder than rivals.

Ford shares declined as much as 5.9 percent to $6.58, the lowest since Oct. 9, 1992. The stock has fallen 61 percent in the past year.

March sales would be ``negative`` for the industry ``but particularly for Ford and its suppliers,`` Goldman analyst Gary Lapidus wrote in a report. –END-

The gold shares continue to be bombed. The HUI is disappearing as it closed at 116.65, down another 2.88. The XAU dropped 1.84 to 63.10.

For those Café members that are rightly distressed and disgusted with the recent gold/gold share goings on, keep in mind that it is very likely that gold will just explode one day out of nowhere. The Cartel will lose control and that will be all she wrote. A great deal of money will be made by our camp in a very short period of time. The quid pro quo for the extraordinary returns we are going to make is that patience is required.

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

[ThaiGuru]

Habe gerade die Threads im Gold Board durchgesehen.

Anscheinend macht sich bereits etwas resignation breit?

Der User "niemandweis" hat gleich 3 Treads hochgebracht, und wirkt total entmutigt. Er sucht nach Antworten. Die wird er aber vermutlich von den Lesern, seiner Threads auch nicht bekommen, denn die meisten lesen nur, und werden durch seine Fragen nur noch mehr verunsichert, wohin denn die Reise geht mit dem Gold, und vor allem mit den Minen Aktien. Er hat vielleicht einen aus seiner Sicht der Dinge, Goldinvestment im Mai 2002, noch nachvollziehbaren Satz geschrieben, der aber wie mir scheint, völlig unzutreffen ist, und nur seine eigene Unsicherheit wiederspiegeln dürfte:

"Zur Zeit scheint Gold out, niemand ist mehr interessiert bzw. mehr oder weniger ratlos. Es gibt sicher keinen zwingenden Grund jetzt einzusteigen. Und die Lust, sich überhaupt noch Gedanken zu machen, vielen vergangen."

Der DAX, und die anderen europäischen Börsen crashen heute weiter. Amerikas Futures sind alle momentan im roten Bereich, die Meldungen zur Wirtschaftslage werden täglich um eine Stufe schlechter, und viele Negatives ist noch gar nicht eingespeist in den Märkten.

Ganz sicher interessieren sich sehr viele Leute, und vermutlich die Mehrheit der Leser in diesem Thread für`s Gold, und die Goldaktien.

Ich für meinen Teil werde heute nochmals zugreifen bei einigen Blue Chip Goldminen, und einem spekulativen Titel. Gold Corp *GG*, Bema Gold *BGO*, Gold Fields *GFI*, Harmony Gold *HMY*, und Caledonia Mining *CALV* als spekulativen Titel, auch auf die Gefahr hin, dass die Preise evtl. nach meinem Kauf noch etwas mehr nachgeben werden. Heute ist übrigens gerade wieder eine neue Teil Dividende von Gold Fields auf meinem Konto eingetroffen.

Es dürfte nicht mehr allzulange dauern, bis die Einkaufsmöglichkeiten bei den Goldminen zu diesen günstigen Preisen endgültig vorbei sein werden.

Garantieren gibt`s zwar dafür auch nicht, wie bei allen Anlageentscheidungen, doch bin ich selbst davon 100%ig überzeugt, dass es so kommen wird, und auch auf Grund der misslichen Wirtschaftslage, dem Dollarpreiszerfall, der grossen weltweiten Verschuldung, der Immobilienblase, der Aktien Bubble in den USA, der weltweiten Pensionkassen Schräglagen, der weltweiten Derivativ Beständen, inkl. Gold, und Silber, und deren Preismanipulation, den weltweiten Schräglagen bei sehr vielen Versicherungs Gesellschaften, und vielen Banken, und Grosskonzernen, der katastophalen Wirtschaftslage in Japan, der Rezession und der unverantwortlichen, und nicht auf lange Zeit aufrecht zu erhaltenen Riesenverschuldung in den USA, und zu guter letzt, wegen der Gefahr eines, in ihren Auswirkungen nicht abschätzbaren, Kriegs-Alleinganges der USA gegen Irak, vielleicht sogar ohne UN Mandat, kommen muss. (Die Aufzählung könnte ich noch 10 Zeilen weiterführen!)

Doch, doch "Niemandweiss" ich glaube, und interessiere mich schon für`s Gold, heute sogar noch noch mehr als gestern!

Eine indirekte Panikmache gegen Goldinvestments in physisches Gold, das ich von einem andern gelegentlich postenden User heute im Board lesen konnte, ist m.E. total unangebracht, und kann ich absolut nicht verstehen. Entweder der Mann ist ein Ignorant, oder er kann/will Trends, und Entwicklungen nicht erkennen.

Wer wirklich daran glaubt dass Gold und Goldminen weiter fallen werden, sollte jetzt einfach verkaufen. Wer das nicht glaubt, und von der Zukunft des Goldes überzeugt ist bleibt investiert. Eine Zeithorizont für eine Anlage in Gold, oder Goldaktien, sollte auch nicht nur eine Woche betragen, sondern mindestens einige Monate, oder noch besser einige Jahre.

Gruss

Thaiguru

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.ozestock.com.au/News.asp?Action=ShowAnnouncement&…

TasGold IPO Extended to 26 March 2003 12-03 1653

TasGold Ltd, which is currently a subsidiary of Macmin Silver Ltd, has extended the closing date for applications under the current IPO prospectus (dated 9 January 2003) from 19 March 2003 to 26 March 2003.

There will be no further extension of the closing date.

G Edwards
COMPANY SECRETARY

ends - AAP

[Basic]

Hallo,
denke auch, wir sind am unteren Ende angelangt günstiger wird es wohl nicht mehr werden.

Hier noch einer, der Donnerstag noch kurzfristig zum Verkauf geraten und jetzt zum Einkauf blässt.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/kern/current.html

Gruß Basic

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.moneysense.ca/news/shownews.jsp?content=20030311_…

BUSINESS NEWS March 12, 2003

INTERVIEW-Well-armed Goldcorp aims to grow to 1 mln oz/yr

2003-03-11 17:23:29 EST

(Figures in U.S. dollars unless noted)

By Alden Bentley

TORONTO, March 11 (Reuters) - Canada`s Goldcorp Inc . plans to become a one-million-ounce-a-year gold producer through acquisitions and will be three quarters of the way there once it finishes expanding its flagship Red Lake gold mine in three years, the company`s chief executive said on Tuesday.

"We still have another 250,000 ounces to add, so we continually look around for opportunities," Goldcorp CEO and Chairman Rob McEwan told Reuters. "We`ve been patient, waiting for the appropriate property and the right time."

In an interview at the company`s headquarters in Toronto, McEwan said he planned to more than double the company`s large gold reserve within two years to show his confidence in bullion prices and build a war chest for takeover opportunities that may arise among companies that have oversold the metal.

"Holding physical gold might be one of those chips you play in a game if you want to satisfy someone`s hedge obligation," he said. "We just watch. Wait until they choke and buy from the creditors, not from the shareholders."

Goldcorp`s goal is production at a cash cost of $100 per ounce once it reaches its million-ounce target, said McEwan.

He said the failure of its recent bid to buy the Campbell mine adjacent to Red Lake from rival Placer Dome was a blessing, even though it will take three years to sink another shaft into one of the world`s richest gold fields.

"It`s better because we have control over our destiny," McEwan said "Our route right now is about a third cheaper than it might have been by buying next door. And it gives us greater flexibility and more capacity."

Goldcorp has turned Red Lake into a 525,000-ounce-a-year producer, from 53,000 ounces, in just a few years, and the expansion will bring that to 750,000 ounces. It will spend $85 million to expand it, far less than the $200 million it would have cost to buy the Campbell mine from Placer.

"Once we`re up and running it will pay back in 1.2 years. Assuming a $325 (an ounce) gold price, it has an internal rate of return of 47 percent," he said.

Hefting a shimmering 15 lb chunk of Red Lake ore of more than 50 percent pure gold on a conference table, McEwan said the expanded property will reduce Goldcorp`s cash cost of production by more than 10 percent to below $60 per ounce.

It currently mines gold at about $65 an ounce, already one of the lowest cash costs in the industry.

It reported a 24 percent increase in 2002 earnings to $65.6 million, or 36 cents a share, from $52.8 million in 2001.

Its smaller Wharf mine in South Dakota will reach the end of its economic life by the time new production from Red Lake kicks in. Production is currently 19,831 ounces at Wharf.

While it looks for a larger prize, McEwan said Goldcorp has made some small investments in a few small exploration companies in different parts of North and South America.

McEwan is an unabashed bull on gold prices, refusing to use forward sales or options to hedge future production, so as to reap the full benefit of a strong market for his investors.

Goldcorp retained about 10 percent of the gold it mined in 2002 for its own stockpile and has built up a 200,000 ounce hoard of bars and coins stored in bank vaults in Toronto and New York. It plans to buy more.

Gold can easily gain a few percentage points in a day, yielding more a Treasury bill does in a year, he said. "So it`s attractive."

"Our goal is to have more gold than the Bank of Canada. They seem to be accommodating us because they keep selling," he said. "They`re at about 500,000 ounces today and we could probably be there in a year and a half."

By the end of the current cycle gold could retest or exceed the 1980 highs above $800 an ounce, McEwan predicted.

"The outlook for gold in my mind hasn`t changed. You`ve got a six- to eight-year run from here. It won`t all be up, you will have corrections along the way, but the trend is higher."

At the Toronto Stock Exchange, Goldcorp shares were down 47 Canadian cents at C$14.58, trading at a seven-month low amid a general decline in gold shares on the broad stock market.

[Thoemsi]

@ Thai

Hast Du schön gesagt. Ich werde diese Woche auch nochmal zugreifen und wietere Positionen aufbauen (ob das heute geschieht, werde ich nachher entscheiden )

Ein Investment in Goldminen ist echt nur was für Leute, die davon überzeugt sind. Wäre doch auch ungerecht, wenn jetzt irgendwelche Nemax-Fuzzies beim Goldanstieg dabeiwären, oder?

[Thoemsi]

Kaum macht die Comex auf, gehts mit dem POG erst mal runter.Mal schauen, was die Minen dazu sagen
Ich weiß nur eines: Tiefpunkt, du bist nicht mehr fern...

[AKonopatzki]

Es scheint so als wollte keiner mehr an seinem Gold festhalten wollen, welches in Amerika lagert.

[niemandweiss]

Ach was ist ja Goldleben herrlich, dann werde ich ja wohl auch noch mal genüsslich zugreifen und das jetzt schon das viertel mal innerhalb 8 Monaten. Und dieses Mal sind wir ja sogar wieder so richtig schön im Keller !!!

So langsam fange ich auch an, mir etwas vorzumachen ... so auf 10Jahressicht kein Thema - je nachdem allerdings, ob man gerade wieder im Keller oder weiter oben ist.

[matthiasch]

@Thai

Was hältst du eigentlich von der russischen NORILSK NICKEL?


Solltest du die nicht kennen - glaube ich aber nicht - hier ne kleine Info:

N. Nickel ist der größte Minen- Konzern Rußlands und einer der größten der Welt. An den weltweit geförderten Sorten hat N. Nickel folgenden Anteil: Nickel 20% (35 % der bekannten Weltvorräte sind im Besitz von N. Nickel), Platin 24%, und Palladium 40%, Rhodium 20%, Kobalt 6%, Kupfer 3,5%. Desweiteren werden Gold- und Silbervorkommen

ausgebeutet. Bei Gold produziert man ca. 16 % der ru. Förderung. Im inländischen Markt hat man bei der Herstellung einen Anteil von 90% bei Nickel, 60% bei Kupfer, 85% bei Kobalt und 95% bei Platium.

Produkte von Norilsk:

Nickel, Kupfer, Kobalt, Selenium, Tellurium, Platinum, Palladium, Rhodium, Iridum, Rutherium, Gold, Silber




Gruß matthiasch

[ThaiGuru]

Heute Nerven Kitzel pur!

Schaut`s Euch das doch bitte live an.

http://finance.lycos.com/home/livecharts/default.asp?symbols…

Aufbau der Seite dauert 1-2 Minuten

[Saccard]

@matthiasch

Was du hier zitiert hast ist wieder mal nichtssagender Müll. Gut und schön, die Fakten mögen stimmen. Aber was sagt dir das über die Attraktivität der Aktie?

Die reale Wirtschaftswelt und deine Profitwelt sind nur über den Aktienkurs miteinander verbunden. Dieses Verhältnis muß stimmen, das ist das wichtigste. Ob jetzt einzelne Daten pos. oder neg. für eine Aktie sind ist doch vollkommen egal solange die Grundlagen nichts stimmen.

ich würde jedenfalls keine russische Aktie kaufen, nie.

Gruß
S.

[matthiasch]

@ Saccard

Wer den Wert kaufen möchte, wird sich davor informieren. Ich mache das zumindest. Leider ist das bei den meisten Werten nicht sonderlich gut möglich, da uns der Einblick in Bilanzen zumeist nichts nutzt, da manipuliert.
Das gilt auch für Goldwerte.
Wer sagt Dir, dass unsere schönen GFI, DROOY oder BGO nicht auch am Rädchen drehen?

Womit begründest du also diese sofortige Verurteilung von russischen Werten im Gegensatz zu den westlichen? Liegt darin nicht vielleicht sogar die Chance, da immernoch diese Vorurteile im Raum stehen? Auf diesen Pessimismus der großen Masse gegenüber den "unbrauchbaren" Metallen verweist ihr im Goldboard doch immer und seht auch genau hier die unheimliche Kurs-Chance von Gold - abgesehen von dem "sicheren" Anstieg von Gold aufgrund der schlechten Lage der USA, die da noch in Ungeahntes hineinschlittern werden. Da gebe ich euch uneinschgeschränkt recht.



Gruß matthiasch

[manfred1_I]

Auf jeden Fall sind viele Münzen in den letzten
Tagen trotz des fallenden Goldpreises weiter
gestiegen.
Belgischer 100 Goldeuro letzte Woche noch bei 330 Euro.
Jetzt kaum unter 370 bis 380 Euro zu bekommen.
Im Münzhandel rd. 495 Euro.
Auflage nur 5000 Stck.
Nur mal so ein Beispiel.

Tiefpunkt dürfte jetzt bald da sein.
Und dann werden wir uns wundern!!!!

[schuh]

Wir werden uns wundern Mannie Ganz sicher werden wir uns wundern

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.usagold.com

The Afternoon Gold Report...

by Jon Warner

March 12, 2003 (usagold.com)

New York spot gold settled lower at $346.10 an ounce down $3.80 an ounce from yesterday’s close. Before the market opened reports al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden had been captured, later refuted by both U.S. and Pakistani officials, pressured gold prices. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld "sparked big diplomatic confusion by suggesting that the U.S. had alternative plans if there was no second U.N. resolution and the U.K. decided not to go to war," he said. Goldcorp CEO and Chairman Rob McEwan predicted that by the end of the current cycle gold could retest or exceed the 1980 highs above $800 an ounce. "The outlook for gold in my mind hasn`t changed. You`ve got a six- to eight-year run from here. It won`t all be up, you will have corrections along the way, but the trend is higher."

"Essentially, the macroeconomic picture looks like it`s going to remain supportive for gold. We`ve got huge deficits, low interest rates that still aren`t generating any growth, and the long-term valuations of the stock markets that are still high from an historical perspective," said Tim Evans, commodities analyst at Pegasus Econometrics. "Those are conditions in which gold does well, so there`s no reason to think that will change," he added. "In the nearer term we could see the odd relief rally in the dollar or stock markets if the U.S. gets in and out of Iraq pretty quickly which could hurt gold, but over the longer course the drags on the economy will work to gold`s advantage." John Tyree, analyst at Rosenthal Collins Group, agreed with the longer- term outlook for the market. "In the long run I`m still bullish for gold because the economy and U.S. debt levels are so shaky, not to mention this era of terrorist threats that`s got everyone nervous," he said. "But, there are certainly question marks over the near and medium term because gold did get ahead of itself by getting to $390 in February so we need to correct from that and consolidate a bit now," he added. "How long we consolidate for could be anyone`s guess," he cautioned. "After all, between May and December 2002 gold held in a $300-$330 range before all hell broke loose and we shot to $390 inside 10 weeks," he said. "I`m not saying we`re going to spend that long consolidating now, but we could well hang around here for months before we target a return to $390- $400."

London gold was fixed this afternoon at $346.10 an ounce, down from $349.00 an ounce at the morning fixing. Fed a "constant diet" of war reports and rumors, the market is "showing signs of fatigue," analysts at Standard Bank in London told clients. Now the question remains, "will the U.S. go it alone?" said James Moore, an analyst at TheBullionDesk.com. ``The wide $342-360 range is still intact and will continue to offer plenty of trading opportunities until a decision is reached on Iraq,`` said Moore. "The euro has lost ground against the (US) dollar, and that has triggered some selling," said Kevin Crisp, an analyst at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein. "In this kind of market, where there is a great deal of uncertainty amongst professional traders, a little bit of selling goes a long way, and gold backs off hard," he said. Crisp said reports that were subsequently denied of the capture of terror mastermind Osama Bin Laden had contributed to the dollar strength, and consequently weakness in gold this afternoon. "The markets are very skittish and sensitive to this kind of report, which are generally interpreted as taking more heat out of the situation," he said.

Earlier spot gold closed at $349.60 an ounce on Wednesday in Hong Kong, down $3.35 an ounce from Tuesday`s close of $352.95. "Investors are waiting for developments in the political situation...They are concerned that when the war really does break out, the price will fall immediately," said Maxell Mak, analyst at Hing Fung Goldsmiths and Refinery in Hong Kong. "But before March 17, bullion still has the potential to go higher," Mak said. But some chart points were still seen as useful. Upside targets for bullion were $356 and $360, the first and second resistance levels, Mak said. Support was at $330, he added.

GEOPOLITICAL NEWS:

The Pakistani government denied a claim by a local politician on Wednesday that al Qaeda chief Osama bin Laden had been captured, while the U.S. government also disavowed the report. Washington said it had no information to substantiate the claim by an official of a small Pakistani party and Pakistan`s interior minister called the report unfounded and baseless. In London, the dollar rose briefly against the euro and the Swiss franc, and equity futures in the United States were rattled by the report, originally sourced to an Iranian radio station and picked up by the BBC monitoring service.

Serbian Prime Minister Zoran Djindjic, who played a key role in ousting Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic, was assassinated on Wednesday, gunned down outside Belgrade`s main government building. Serbia`s government held an urgent meeting and said it would ask acting President Natasa Micic to declare a state of emergency.

Britain set out six tough new conditions for Iraqi President Saddam Hussein to avoid war on Wednesday, in an attempt to break the U.N. Security Council stalemate over a resolution to set Baghdad a tight deadline before fighting begins. With nine votes needed for a majority and a vote expected by the end of the week, the new British proposals were aimed to win over six uncommitted nations on the 15-member Security Council.

ECONOMIC NEWS:

U.S. consumer confidence fell this week amid uncertainties over possible war, a slumping stock market and rising gasoline prices, a survey showed on Tuesday.
ABC News/Money Magazine said its weekly Consumer Comfort index fell to -25 in the week ended March 9 from -21 in the prior week. The index, a scale of plus-100 to minus-100, is approaching the nine-year low of -27 it reached during the week of Jan. 19. Only 23 percent of respondents rated the economy in excellent or good shape, down five points from 28 percent in the previous week. This particular gauge has not been this low since December 1993.

Investors withdrew $1.43 billion from stock-based mutual funds Tuesday through Thursday, according to TrimTabs.com Investment Research. By contrast, investors added $1.48 billion to bond-based mutual funds during the same period, TrimTabs said. Domestic stock funds accounted for most of the outflows from equity funds, as investors removed $766 million. International stock funds saw outflows of $668 million. Among domestic stock funds, aggressive growth funds lost $507 million, growth fund redemptions were $190 million and growth & income funds lost $69 million. The Dow Jones Industrial average fell 2.1% during the same period, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index shed 1.3%. The Standard & Poor`s 500 index fell 1.5%.

Fresh lows in mortgage rates spurred record numbers of Americans to apply to refinance their home loans last week, an industry report said on Wednesday. Rates continue to drop. The average rate for the most popular home loan in the United States, the 30-year mortgage, fell 0.15 percentage points to 5.42 percent in the week ended March 7, the Mortgage Bankers Association of America said. The previous week`s rate had been a record low, as well. The MBA began conducting its weekly mortgage survey in 1990. Applications to refinance mortgages rose 34.9 percent last week from the previous week, the MBA said. Its index of mortgage refinancing rose to 8,920.9, a record high. That helped raise the MBA`s market index, an index of overall mortgage applications, to a record high of 1,603.1, a 26.7 percent increase from the previous week.


Comment: The gold market appears to be confused as rumors of al Qaeda leader Osama Bin Laden’s supposed capture combined with Britain’s apparent withdrawal of support for war against Iraq lead to fund selling. Unfortunately amateur hedge fund managers continue to sell off gold positions as they are so easily spooked by unsubstantiated rumors and what appears to be a delay in war against Iraq. Fortunately as they and other weak speculators leave the market a more solid base of support is attained by true gold investors. The threat of war has diminished for the near term as the Brits seek to appease Saddam Hussein with new conditions aimed at delaying or eliminating military conflict. Some analysts are suggesting that there is now a possibility that war will be avoided altogether. From a macroeconomic perspective the outlook for precious metals remains firm due to a weak global economy, weak U.S. dollar, weak equities markets, rising debt, rising energy costs and continuing global geopolitical tensions. The recent pullback in precious metals prices offers an opportunity to add to portfolio insurance positions while the markets mull over recent economic and geopolitical developments.


- Jon H. Warner-


E-Mail the current report to a friend or to yourself.
__________________________
Jon Warner is a professional geologist with nearly 24 years in exploration and project development in both mining and petroleum. Mr. Warner brings to the table an impressive industry contact list, thorough knowledge of the precious metals and energy markets as well as a practical understanding of gold`s role in the private investment portfolio. His strong knowledge in these fields has been demonstrated at the USAGOLD Discussion Forum where he posts on a regular basis as Black Blade.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



We invite you to stay tuned to the gold market through our DISCUSSION FORUM
featuring round the clock gold news & commentary from the public.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[ThaiGuru]

3:21p ET Wednesday, March 12, 2003

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Thom Calandra`s commentary at CBSMarketWatch today
examines a proposed Federal Reserve regulation that
one expert says would allow banks to short commodities
without limit. Our own James Turk of GoldMoney and
the Freemarket Gold and Money Report is quoted too.
You can find Calandra`s commentary here:

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BC7D6C811%2…
2D4DC2%2D9689%2DE430C67B9071%7D&siteid=mktw" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BC7D6C811%2…
2D4DC2%2D9689%2DE430C67B9071%7D&siteid=mktw

Or try this abbreviated link:

http://ls.shapebyforce.com/sbf/132

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

----------------------------------------------------

[ThaiGuru]

March 12 – Gold $346.10 down $3.80 – Silver $4.64 down 3 cents

Farcical PPT Antics Making a Mockery of US Financial Markets

"Ay, fight and you may die, run and you`ll live. At least a while. And dying in your beds many years from now, would you be willing to trade all the days from this day to that for one chance, just one chance to come back here and tell our enemies that they may take our trades, but they`ll never take our mojooooooo!"
--Sir William Wallace, Braveheart

The Plunge Protection Team is making a mockery out of the financial markets in the US. Last week’s planted capture of Bin Laden’s sons story was "pathetic." That false revelation on Friday caught the traders by surprise and turned the market around just as it was going into a rout mode. Today, the European markets were swooning very badly, as they have been all week, and the US market was due much lower according to the futures market. Another horrendous trade deficit of $41 billion was soon to be announced.

I went to get a cup of coffee and when I came back the S&P had rallied from 8 lower to 2 higher. I thought it was a misprint. The PPT did it again. The BBC reported a story out of Iran that Bin Laden himself had been captured. What a farce this has become:

*The PPT put an Iran byline on the story to muster some sort of credibility for the S&P trading crowd.
*They also put out the story before the market was open to avoid arbitrage selling from the cash market. Naturally, the story was denied by the CIA once the trading damage was done to the pressing shorts.
*The PPT needed to change their modus operandi modestly from last week, so they put it out before the US stock market opened.

Clearly, the Working Group on Financial Markets (PPT) in the US wants to keep the shorts from pressing too hard and they want to enhance the concept that when the war gets going, the stock market is going to put in a spectacular rally. They want the average public investor to hang in there for that well advertised rally once the war starts. By planting these disingenuous Bin Laden stories, the PPT is currently keeping the US public from dumping their shares in a panic and keeping the shorts on their toes.

Meanwhile, stock markets around the world continue to disappear. The German Dax Index was down 103 to 2202. The CAC in France fell 90 to 2403 and the Footsie in England fell 166 to 3287. These are huge percentage drops (three to five percent), especially since these markets have already dropped more than twice as much as the DOW this year.

So what does the DOW do? After a seesaw day, it closes HIGHER at 7552, up 28. Quelle JOKE! Can there be anybody left in the investment world that doesn’t really know the US financial markets are rigged? We might as well have Lenin as our SEC commissioner. Mao could be head of our CFTC. So much for cleaning up the financial markets in the US. The entire financial system is corrupt and the most corrupt ones of all are the ones at the top: in the Treasury (ESF), the Fed and the CEO’s of the major bullion banks (JPM, Goldman Sachs, etc).

The DOW rallied very late in the day for no apparent reason except for futures market buying. How many times have we seen the same thing happen over the past months? Foreign markets, that do not have a stock futures market (of any size) and a PPT, are not acting like our market. The divergence in market action is striking.

Gold was trashed in the US AGAIN by The Gold Cartel. The divergence between the action in gold overseas versus the US is also striking. It has been that way for years. The US gold casino is crooked, designed to benefit the rich and powerful bullion banks. Don’t you just love the free markets we have in the US?

The talk of the year has been about the coming Iraq war and how it is affecting the markets. That certainly is true for oil:

"Crude oil for April delivery rose $1.08, or 3 percent, to $37.83 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest closing price since Oct. 16, 1990, when the Iraqi occupation of Kuwait cut off exports from both countries." Bloomberg

Except for a one day squeeze of some firm trapped short and was forced to cover, oil is at its highs for the move. Stock markets are making five to twenty year lows around the world and are at their market move lows. The dollar at 110 is close to its low for its move. The US bond market is right at its high for the move. ONLY GOLD is way off its high, or low. That divergence is also STRIKING.

It makes no sense unless you know how important gold is to the entire financial system in the West. The massively short criminals, that rigged the price for so long, are desperate to keep the price from moving to the top of its move in order to keep the gold derivatives neutron bomb from going off. That might set off Warren Buffet’s financial weapons of mass destruction, so long talked about by MIDAS and other Café contributors like Adam Hamilton.

Well, I have news for them. They are only delaying the inevitable and making matters much worse for the investing public of the world. The cash market is on fire and it is going to eat their lunch. Speaking of lunch, I couldn’t eat mine as I had gum surgery this morning on both sides of my mouth. Ouch! Funny enough, sitting in the oral surgeons chair was less painful than watching the jaded Gold Cartel whack gold on every rally.

This MIDAS is full of goodies that lend support to the notion that a rising surge in physical gold demand is going to bury the small and elitist group of sinister Americans, who have lost all regard for what America stands for.

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

Wednesday March 12, 2003

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $13.63, PM $$6.51, with world gold at $349.50 and $349.75. Far above legal import level, in fact startlingly high (the lower PM premium may be due to a misprint). A wider range of prices than usual were evaluated this morning: all suggest that India must be a massive buyer at these levels. A dealer friend confirmed this and added that the Middle East is also very active.

TOCOM declined to follow New York’s lead and hammer the gold price further:

"Trade liquidation in gold was well taken by physical demand".

according to Mitsui-HK. On sharply higher volume, up 49% from Tuesday to the equivalent of 24,971 Comex lots, $US gold was steady, closing 25 c below the NY close at $349.75. The active contract was down 12 yen, but, once again, open interest rose: by 807 Comex lots. Japan apparently sees things differently than America. (NY yesterday was estimated to have traded 40,000 lots.)

As Mitsui London puts it, speaking of Tuesday:

"At first gold looked set for a test of 355 with the EUR firming up back towards its highs, but failed to make much headway 353. By the NY opening it was faltering a little, and at around the PM fixing we were in full swing of a selling riot, pushing it down towards 348. It held as massive physical buying came in…"

The strong seller of the past few days, by now no doubt accompanied by trend following speculators and helped by triggered stops, has of course created a technical situation which will alarm another community of observers. JP Morgan’s technical comment is representative.

"A key day ahead as the latest slide is seeing Gold head towards the triangle support level at 347.50. A clear break of this level would suggest a 20 point decline (the depth of the triangle), confirmed by a move to and through the 341.50 lows. However, as long as 347.50 holds another run back to 357ish is expected to continue the range."

But with Indian premiums running at levels rarely seen except at important lows the bears are liable to be trapped badly.

JB

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The news worsens and worsens. The US trade deficit is horrendous, oil inventories remain low as Bush takes America to war and Heads of State are being assassinated:

Washington, March 12 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. trade deficit narrowed in January from a record as Americans bought fewer foreign-made goods in a slowing economy and exports rose, a government report showed.

The trade gap in goods and services was $41.1 billion, trailing only December`s revised $44.9 billion deficit, the Commerce Department said. In 2002, the deficit reached a record $435.7 billion.

New York, March 12 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose after an Energy Department report showed an unexpected decline in U.S. inventories.

Supplies last week fell 1.4 percent to 269.8 million barrels, the department said. Inventories were 16 percent lower than a year earlier and close to a 28-year low. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expected an increase of about 1.5 million barrels. The decline comes as the U.S. prepares to attack Iraq, which pumps about 3 percent of the world`s oil.

``This is a big problem,`` said John Kilduff, senior vice president of energy-risk management at Fimat USA Inc. in New York. ``You don`t want to have low oil inventories when the country is about to go to war.``

Belgrade, March 12 (Bloomberg) -- The Serbian Prime Minister Zoran Djindjic died after being shot in front of the government`s building in Belgrade, a Serbian government official said. –END-

Get this from The King Report:

"GE’s annual report released last Friday shows its pension lost $5.25B last year, but due to accounting assumptions [chicanery], they derived earnings of $806m from the pension."

Serious financial trouble is lurking all over the world:

Bill,

SK group in Singapore is in BIG trouble. They are calling it Asia`s ENRON. Reports of 1.3 billion in debt and about 10 executives have quit so far.

I smell derivatives blow up here !!!!

best
steve

To avoid a derivatives blow up?:

New York, March 12 (Bloomberg) -- Newmont Mining Corp., the world`s largest gold producer, said one of its Australian mines was forced to pay A$24 million ($14.3 million) in cash rather than in gold to make good on a hedging contract with a bullion bank.

The payment of cash to the bank enabled Newmont to get out of a contract in which the company had agreed to sell its gold at a fixed price, Chief Executive Wayne Murdy said. The bullion bank had the option to accept a payment in gold, but insisted instead on cash, which is unusual in such contracts, Murdy said.

``Nobody has ever exercised these options,`` Murdy said in New York before an investment conference sponsored by Citigroup Inc.`s Salomon Smith Barney.
Denver-based Newmont has been reducing its hedging activity to take advantage of a 20 percent rally in gold prices during the past year.

Shares of Newmont fell 5 cents to $24.70 at 9:42 a.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. They have dropped 8.9 percent since March 6, partly on speculation the company will be forced to spend more to exit hedging contracts. –END-

Argentina and gold:

Bill,

I am a subscriber and travelling in Argentina and found this is the news... Kirschner is apparently the leading contender for president. Thought you might find it interesting.
david

http://www.buenosairesherald.com/argentina/note.jsp?idConten…

Kirchner goes for the gold

Presidential hopeful Néstor Kirchner would seek to return to a system in which the peso is backed by gold reserves, his economic adviser, José María Las Heras, said yesterday.

Las Heras said that the return to a gold standard, discarded by the world’s leading economies decades ago, would be part of a monetary policy in which "there will be neither dollarization nor multiple currencies," since the aim will be "to have a single currency, backed by gold reserves, that would eventually converge with a single Mercosur currency."

The economist also said that if Kirchner won the elections scheduled for April 27, the incoming government would seek a cut of between 50 and 60 percent on interest payments on the foreign debt, although it would honour the face value of the debt.

-END-

Russia and gold (PRAVDA):

Converting Dollars to Gold


Russian people keep losing their faith in US dollar

It deems that the decade of Russian people’s whole-hearted confidence in US dollar is coming to its end. Years of reforms made people of Russia think that everything might crush, devaluate, turn to dust in a blink of an eye, although packs of green money would remain totally secure. However, an American dollar stumbled on the way of its constant growth. It seems that this will cost it a lot.

However, if a US dollar is not the most reliable way for people to save their money, Russians will have to deal with an inevitable question – what can serve as a substitute? Is it real estate or land, or cars? However, only a few people in Russia can convert their money the same way as Western common people do, taking into consideration the fact that practically every Russian person has a certain quantity of dollars. In this case Russians pay their attention to everlasting values.

Gold has always been the absolute universal equivalent on account of its chemical peculiarities. In addition to that, gold is the metal that is used in the jewelry industry. The economic boom of Western countries and the targeted policy of American and European banks used to push gold into the background. A dollar became much more important than gold. However, gold managed to keep its position anyway. As it seems, the present time is just the right moment for increasing the role of gold as the universal equivalent.

As a rule, the interest to gold as a way to save money grows little by little. However, the situation changes completely during a crisis or an economic disaster. Bank specialists say that the uneven growth of demand on gold occurs for the third time in Russia. The first time it happened after the crisis of 1998, then - in September of 2001. The third time takes place at present moment. Gold gets more expensive today. The majority of Russian experts think that the reason of such a sudden increase of demand on this precious metal is the same as it is with the growth of the euro rate. The subconscious distrust in dollar is finally finished with its quantity, turning to quality. Yet, according to experts’ estimates, it is the rise of prices on gold, which makes a common consumer react. Common people think like this: if it becomes more expensive, this means that a lot of people need it, so why not joining them? On the other hand, it stands the reason that it is a lot better to buy something when prices go down, not up. If something becomes more and more expensive, it is the best time to start selling it.

Any Russian person can come to a bank and buy some gold there. Banks sell gold in the shape of bars and coins. It is the Russian Central Bank that produces gold coins. There are two kinds of those coins: investment and collectible coins.

Investment coins are not taxed with value-added tax at their purchase, which makes them rather attractive to buyers. It is possible to acquire them in banks, paying the price of metal, as well as the commission fee of up to five percent. If prices go up, one may sell those coins. Sometimes gold prices might experience the fluctuation of ten or fifteen percent within a weekend. However, gold prices might fall and grow rather considerably at times. Gold prices have been growing since 2001 – from $250 to $375 per troy ounce. Advanced "investors" had a good opportunity to gain a lot of profit with the help of that fluctuation. On the other hand, those people, who purchased some gold at the price of $370 per ounce, were deprived of any profit at the moment. They are forced to hold their investments at the moment, hoping that gold might get more expensive in the future.

However, if someone does not like the idea of being worried over exchange fluctuations, it would be better to choose collectible gold coins. Unfortunately, they are taxed with value added tax, although their price grows with time, covering taxation costs. Yet, one should be a good specialists of collectible gold coins. It is possible to buy the goods of low liquidity, which will inevitably cause a lot of troubles in the future. Only two or three banks work with collectible coins. Selling those coins to onsellers or numismatists can be rather risky.

Russian Federation Central Bank specialists say that the most popular series of collectible gold coins is Zodiac Signs. The Central Bank is going to increase the output of those coins next year. In addition to that, coins are expected to become 2.5 times larger (they are rather small at the moment). One gold coin of Zodiac Signs series costs 1300 rubles, which is equal to the sum of $40. To crown it all, the Central Bank has something unique to offer as well. There is a unique gold coin, for example, which weighs one kilogram. The coin was issued to commemorate the 300th anniversary of St.Petersburg.

If Russian people do not believe in the all-mighty dollar anymore, if it is too late to buy euros, it is possible to buy some gold. This would be a nice, even a beautiful thing to do. Furthermore, it is possible to convert gold in rubles easily. More importantly, every sold gold coin will help the Central Bank to increase the Russian gold reserve, which has been hidden by Russian authorities in American and European banks right in the middle of another coming global economic crisis.

Kira Poznakhirko
PRAVDA.Ru

Translated by Dmitry Sudakov

On silver in Australia:

Dear bill,

As I have been watching the price of Silver for my company`s superannuation fund I have come to notice that there is a distinct difference between the published price and the real price. For instance last week we bought about AU$30,000 worth. The bullion company`s price list on its website on the day we clinched the deal was:

Base Price US$4.61 (same as Kitco)
Price AU$ 7.59 (converted by the exchange rate)but listed as AU$244/Kg: OK
Also listed was:
1kg bars AU$264
5kg bars AU$259
Buy back AU$224

We had to pay AU$263/kg for 120kg on the day and it came in all sorts of sizes; 1,2,3,5,10kg bars from miscellaneous mints, unlike previous lots which we got in 5,10,22kg bars all from the same mint. I protested to the bullion dealer rep about the AU$19 extra/kg (263-244) and she said it was because it was so hard to get the stuff and some big orders were taking weeks to fill.

Our lot only took 5 days.

My point is that the price of silver has to rise AU$19 before we get our money back, that is, AU59cents or US36cents/oz rise. That means silver has to get up to US$4.97 to get our money back.

Then if we sell it back to this bullion dealer at AU$224 a further cost of AU$39/kg (263-244) equals AU$1.21 or US74cents/oz. We therefore need US$4.97plus 74cents or US$5.71 to get our money back!

I am assured by some that we won`t have to sell back to the bullion dealer at a reduced rate because we will be able to sell it at any price to anyone when silver really takes off.

So as we watch the price of silver moving up we have to remind ourselves that the first US39 cents went to the dealer before we start counting our chickens.

It did not cost us anything for delivery as we picked it up ourselves. I suppose other people have to deduct that cost as well from their profit as well as storage costs if necessary. Interesting experience driving a small car with 120kg (264 pounds) in the boot. Another time I had 200kg. The comment from the bullion dealer above is interesting. The people we are dealing with face to face are quite frantic filling orders for gold and silver. They are scrounging it from all over the country, even buying from sources they don`t usually deal with. One of the staff said they were also buying metal from old customers who are cashing in! They, the customers, apparently think they have made enough out of the recent rises and/or are worried about the falls that get in the news. We in the Cafe probably all agree that the sellers` sense of timing is pretty bad. Also the large orders are taking weeks to fill. We apparently jumped the queue because our order was quite small by comparison! I don`t know how the big buyers store their silver. I have seen only 300kg (about 9,600 ozs) in one place and it`s a pretty big lump to contain somewhere.

Keep up the good work,
Chris

On gold smelters:

Hi Bill: There has been some talk floating around about the impact of mill closures on POG. One of Europe`s largest lead and zinc smelters Metaleurop Nord was placed in liquidation March 10/03. Gold is often a by-product in the process of smelting other minerals whose low prices are making them too costly to mine and process. Teck/Cominco is another one to look at. Maybe one of the Metropole brains can offer more info. Judith.

On the gold shares:

Bill,

I have been looking at the Café and noticed nobody has mentioned the facts below in the gold share saga…..

I hold many unleveraged Canadian gold shares and am NOT moving an inch. When supply & demand dynamics for Gold are as obvious as they are now, yet prices fly in one’s face, it is natural to conclude something is amiss. Well, it is amiss but there are non cabal reasons….

What is likely going on is about mutual fund group (MFG) survival. The MFGs hold massive amounts of investor wealth. When they are forced to sell shares to cash out clients, they do not necessarily go ahead and cash out the stock positions in the particular fund the investor held. As is a prudent practice, these funds often buy stocks across strong sectors when other sectors are trending weaker - mutual funds hedge too. So, if they were to sell their DOW, S&P, and TSX positions in stocks specific to the funds the investor wished to exit, they would be cutting their own throats. It is like the Gold Cartel just letting the market see the true state of the gold market. With the DOW , S&P, and TSX in full retreat, many more Wall & Bay street jobs would be lost as the tidal wave grew. Instead, they take the edge off their KEY TO SURVIVAL INDEXES by selling their stronger stocks (ie-Gold/silver/energy) since many of their competing MFGs probably have the same selling issues at the same time. It is a short no doubt but it creates a powder keg upwards (on top of the huge short positions already out there). NUCLEAR KABOOM !!!

It would not surprise me if the weakness in MFG investment in January & February 2003 is equating into a historic redemption situation in March 2003 given the fact the first 2 months of the year had in the extended past been the strongest, and the gold shares are taking a pounding now.

IS EVERYONE READY FOR BLASTOFF ?????

Steve N.

The gold shares finally steadied up after their recent rout. The XAU closed up .56 to 63.66 with the HUI dropping .27 to 116.38.

Financial markets are going into disarray around the world. The United States markets are as corrupt as they get. Only market rigging operations by the Working Group on Financial Markets is keep the US stock market from going into collapse and keeping gold from soaring to the stratosphere. These farcical rigging operations are becoming so obvious as make America a financial market laughingstock.

While the efforts of the PPT to manipulate markets in the past have worked for the most part, they will FAIL this time because the tide going against them is way TOO powerful. They are like the little Dutch boy putting his hands in the holes of a bursting dyke. A tsunami-like tidal wave will hit the dyke of the manipulators in the near future and that will be all she wrote.

Gold and the gold shares will be the place to be for the next half decade.

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

@Thoemsi

#5022

Die Long-Nemax-Fuzzies glauben doch noch immer täglich an die grosse Reversal Rally. Wenn sie Ihren Glauben dann zu guter letzt doch noch verloren haben, werden sie in Gold, und Goldminen investieren, vermutlich wenn der Goldpreis die 800.- erreicht hat.

[ThaiGuru]

@matthiasch

Mit NORILSK NICKEL habe ich mich noch nie intensiv befasst, und kann Dir darum auch eine Meinung dazu nicht geben.

Werde es aber bei Gelegenheit noch nachholen, mich mit diesem vielfältigen Russischen Produzenten näher vertraut zu machen.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

@Basic

Es war wie auch Du gestern richtig vermutet hast, wohl etwa der richtige Nachkaufszeitpunkt. Mein angekündigter Zukauf von:

Gold Corp *GG*, Bema Gold *BGO*, Gold Fields *GFI*, Harmony Gold *HMY*, und Caledonia Mining *CALV*

War ja wohl zumindest gestern, ein Volltreffer!

Alle 5 Goldminen Titel sind nach meinem Kauf gestiegen. 4 Minen haben auch im Schlusskurs zugelegt. Die GFI hat unverändert geschlossen.

Caledonia Mining hat 10.25% zugelegt!

Heute Abend schaue ich mir die KGC, CDE und HL noch etwas genauer an, und kaufe vermutlich auch bei diesen preislichen Trümmerhaufen, zum Eröffnungskurs (bestens)etwas zusätzlich Aktien dazu.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

Habe gestern schon so etwas in dieser Art erwartet.
Die weltweiten Anleger sind ja sowas von leichtgläubig, es ist fast nicht zu glauben.

Zuerst das berits dementierte Gerücht über die Festnahme der Söhne vom Bin Laden, dann das ebenfalls bereits wieder dementierte Gerücht von Bin Ladens Festnahme, und jetzt noch das neue gezielt gestreute Grücht, dass Sadam, respektive einige seiner Offiziere sich ergeben wollen, und schon bricht der Goldpreis weiter runter.

Dass das letzte Gerücht von dem Nachrichtensender CNN verbreitet wurde, das einem Gold Cabal Mitglied gehört, sei nur am Rande erwähnt.

Das das Gold Cabal dabei auch noch wacker mitgeholfen haben dürfte, mit ihren eigenen Papier Gold verkäufen, ist wohl auch stark anzunehmen.

Wie dem auch sei. Schlussendlich schneidet sich das Gold Cabal immer mehr ins eigene Fleisch, weil Gold durch die nachgebenden Preis Notierungen, für nicht in US Dollar rechnende Investoren wieder billiger wird, und demzufolge physisch auch wieder vermehrt nachgefragt werden dürfte.
Da es aber an physischem Gold an allen Ecken und Enden fehlt, ist das eigentlich eine gute Entwicklung.

Dass der Dollar heute auch noch an Wert zugelegt hat, nachdem die Amis ihre neusten katastrophalen Defizit Zahlen (41,1 Milliarden) veröffentlicht haben, grenzt ja fast schon an ein wunder.

So naiv kann doch eigentlich ein durchschnittlicher Anleger gar nicht sein. Oder doch?

Gruss

ThaiGuru



http://abcnews.go.com/wire/Business/reuters20030313_93.html



Gold Hits Three-Week Low on Iraq Rumors

March 13

LONDON (Reuters) - Gold stumbled to a three-week low on Thursday as investors shunned the safe-haven asset in the face of a stronger dollar triggered by a report that some Iraqi officials were in surrender talks.

Spot gold <XAU=> was quoted at $343.50/344.25 an ounce at 4:34 a.m. EST, down from $346.00/346.75 an ounce at the New York close on Wednesday.

It traded as low as $342.10 an ounce, its weakest level since February 19.

Prospects of a war in Iraq had sent the precious metal -- which is used by funds as an insurance policy in troubled times -- to a 6-1/2 year high of $388.50 only last month.

Bullion has since then lost most of its "war premium."

A report that some Iraqi officials were in surrender talks with the U.S. ahead of a possible war fueled strong gains in the dollar and opened the possibility that a war in Iraq could be averted.

The dollar jumped one percent against the euro <EUR=> and Swiss franc <CHF=>, fighting back from recent four-year lows, after the report by CNN.

A stronger dollar makes gold less attractive to European investors holding euros and other currencies.

"With the timescale for war still undecided, the market is likely to see further sharp dips," said James Moore of TheBullionDesk.com in an overnight report.

Key support levels were set at the 100-day moving average at $341.45. A breach of that level would take gold back to its lowest since late December 2002.

Prices were seen remaining volatile due to thin volume as many dealers preferred to remain in the wings until a decision was made over an attack on Iraq.

Bullion has a history of price volatility in times of war.

Gold gained $45 to $415 when Iraqi forces invaded Kuwait in August, 1990, then fell by $40 to $366 when allied forces began action to evict Iraq from the Gulf emirate in January, 1991.

"Will the U.S. go it alone? That is the big question on most people`s minds," Moore said.

Frantic attempts to persuade wavering countries to support a U.S.-backed resolution authorizing war with Iraq have intensified, with Britain on Thursday making a last-ditch effort to save the measure.

The vote, originally planned for Thursday and then pushed into Friday, was likely to be delayed again, according to diplomats.

In other precious metals, silver <XAG=> was quoted at $4.61/63 an ounce from $4.62/64 an ounce at the late New York close on Wednesday.

Platinum <XPT=> was at $700/705 from $695/700 and palladium at $235/240 from $236/241 an ounce.


Copyright 2003 Reuters News Service. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.interfax.ru/show_one_news.html?lang=EN&tz=0&tz_fo…

Finance & Business

13.03.2003 14:17:04

Gold, forex reserves growth hits maximum since 1998
MOSCOW. March 13 (Interfax) - Central Bank of Russia gold and foreign currency reserve growth, which totaled $1.5 billion from February 28 to March 7, has reached a maximum since July 1998.
.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.thebulliondesk.com/reports/jimmy/130303ldn.htm

Gold testing support..again - London Bullion Report

The Iraq situation took another step closer to becoming a badly produced game-show last night as the UK revealed their latest bid to avoid a war. The UK`s plan is to set 6-key tests including Sadam making a public statement to the Iraqi public admitting that he has weapons of mass destruction and will give them up, allow 30 Iraqi scientists to be interviewed outside Iraq and surrendering stocks of biological and chemical agents, or produce documents to demonstrate what happened to them.

I wonder if the proposed questions will included a clause allowing Sadam to phone a friend or go 50/50?? The sell off seen in New York yesterday, combined with a recovery in the Dow and Dollar prompted a fresh bout of long liquidation overnight as Asian traders pushed gold down to $342.25.

Support has been extremely strong around $342 over the past few months and I think it will continue to offer a good buying level over the next few weeks. Although the time scale for war seems to have taken another step back the fact is that there are 250,000 US/UK troops sitting in the gulf region with itchy trigger fingers. Although I hate to say it, I think war is inevitable and with it will come the move to $420.

Silver followed gold lower in New York yesterday but managed to find support around the 100-day Moving Average at $4.63. The overnight dip in gold prompted fresh selling interest in silver, pushing the industrial metal to $4.60. Physical buying is keeping the market supported for the moment between $4.60-3 but further pressure on gold would see silver fall back to $4.55.

James Moore
TheBullionDesk.com


Tel : [phone]
[e-mail]

[manfred1_I]

an schuh

wer Goldaktien hat, wundert sich jetzt schon
über die fallenden Kurse.

Aber bei Münzen sehe ich das nicht so.
Die werden sich halten, bzw. weiter steigen.
Insbesondere knappe Auflagen.
DEshalb habe ich immer wieder auf die Ware Gold
hingewiesen, sowohl als Barren wie auch als
Münzen.

[ThaiGuru]

Was zum Teufel ist "Gold mit Chance" der Dresdner Bank wieder für ein "praktisch risikofreies"wie sie es nennt, Derivativ Gebilde, bei dem eine mindest Einlage von 750000.- Euro erforderlich ist.?

Eine Anlage in physisches Gold kann es ja wohl nicht wirklich sein?

Das was die Dresner Bank da zur Chance eines Einstieges in Gold schreibt, kann ich ja nur voll unterstützen, aber doch bitte physisches Gold, und keine derivativen Dresdner Bankgebilde wie "Gold mit Chance"

Gruss

Thaiguru

Aktienmarkt.NET

http://www.aktienmarkt.net/?fn=1&template=fn&ide=dw2003-03-1…

Von steigendem Goldpreis garantiert profitieren

Dresdner Bank

13. März 2003, 09:02

Idee: Gold glänzt weiter

Gold ist angesichts der politischen Unsicherheit und nervöser Finanzmärkte als Anlagemedium wieder in Mode gekommen. Eine rückläufige Produktion und geringere Terminverkäufe der Minengesellschaften untermauern den Aufwärtstrend beim Goldpreis.

Durch Verkäufe von Notenbanken und Gewinnmitnahmen hat sich der Goldpreis vom Hoch bei 380 USD/Unze nun wieder deutlich entfernt und bietet dadurch eine gute Einstiegschance.

Ein interessantes Produkt, das für eine Laufzeit von 2 Jahren bei voller Kapitalgarantie zu ca. 30 % an steigenden Goldpreisen partizipiert ist das "Gold mit Chance". Hierdurch ist ab einem Mindestanlagevolumen von 750.000 Euro eine nahezu risikofreie Diversifizierung im Portfolio mit einem auch heute noch modernen und wertstabilen Medium möglich. Eine höhere Partizipation kann durch eine Reduzierung der Kapitalgarantie erzielt werden.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten/artikel-1875129.…

Gold unter Druck, DAX auf Erholungskurs

Das Barrel Gold notiert zuletzt bei $336.25/337.25 je Feinunze, nach $346.00/346.75 am Mittwoch und setzt sich damit von der technischen Unterstützungszone bei $349-355 weiter ab. Gleichzeitig verliert der Euro gegenüber dem Dollar um 0,70% auf $1,0910. Im Laufe des heutigen Tages werden die Diskusstionen im UN-Sicherheitsrat weitergehen. Dem US-Nachrichtensender CNN zufolge haben die USA mit einigen Militäreinheiten des Irak erfolgreiche Verhandlungen geführt und sie davon überzeugt, im Kriegsfalle nicht zu kämpfen.

Eine Sprecherin des US-Außenministeriums wies diesen Bericht jedoch zurück. Vor dem UN-Sicherheitsrat hatten Großbritannien und die USA in der Nacht zum Donnerstag erstmals unterschiedliche Positionen vertreten. Uneins sei man sich in Großbritannien über das Ultimatum, dass bis zum 17. März gestellt werden solle. Die USA halten dagegen weiterhin an diesem Termin fest.

Die USA werden Uno-Diplomaten zufolge bald eine Abstimmung des UN-Sicherheitsrates verlangen. Laut einem ranghohen Regierungsmitarbeiter der USA sei jedoch eine Abstimmung auch in der nächsten Woche noch denkbar, berichtet der „Spiegel“. Somit dürfte sich die Unsicherheit weiter im Markt halten, was eine nachhaltige Erholung der Kurse aufhalten könnte. Der Deutsche Aktienindex (DAX), der am Mittwoch zeitweise unter die 2200 Punktemarke fiel, steigt vor dem Hintergrund positiver Vorgaben aus den USA um 2,74% oder 60 Punkte auf 2.263 Stellen an.

© BörseGo

PS: Letzte Gold Kurse wurden von mir dem zur Zeit aktuellen Stand angepasst!

[ThaiGuru]

"Scheisse" jetzt haben sie wohl auch noch die Urgrossmutter vom Bin Laden verhaftet?



Habe gerade frisch gebadet, mein schönstes Hemd angezogen, und werde heute den Teufel tun, und mir dieses Goldpreis Derangierspiel weiter ansehen.

Gehe jetzt ein bisschen unter die Leute, vor allem unter die weiblichen, die wissen nichts von der Börse, und können mir vom Goldgeschehen überhaupt nichts erzählen, und wissen trotzdem weit mehr vom realen Leben als so mancher Anleger an der Börse. Und vor allem es macht vieeeel Spass, was man heute beim Anschauen des Gold Charts nicht gerade behaupten kann.

Morgen sind die Zeitungen wahrscheinlich voll von Meldungen, dass die Goldhausse vorbei sei, und dass die Analysten sich in Gold getäuscht haben. Sie werden jetzt vermehrt wieder schreiben, dass der Zeitpunkt zum Einstieg in die Aktien am DAX und DOW gekommen sei, weil diese ja soooo unterbewertet sind.

Und dass ist genau das, was uns Gold Bugs zum Erfolg verhelfen wird. Wartets ab, und ihr werdet`s sehen, Gold wird bis in ca. einer Woche wieder auf über 350.- Dollar steigen. Und die Goldaktien werden folgen.

und tschüss

ThaiGuru

[bluemoons]

Edelmetalle
Spekulationen um Kapitulation Iraks drücken Gold

13. März 2003 Gold hat am Donnerstagmorgen nach Spekulationen über angebliche Kapitulationsverhandlungen der USA mit Vertretern des irakischen Militärs auf das tiefste Niveau seit Mitte Februar nachgegeben.

Die Feinunze Gold notierte um 12.50 Uhr bei 343,15 Dollar nach 346 Dollar zum Vorabendschluss in New York. Das Metall war damit so günstig wie seit dem 19. Februar nicht mehr. Das Londoner Morgenfixing lautete auf 342,90 Dollar nach 346,10 Dollar am Mittwochnachmittag.

Nach einem Bericht des amerikanischen Nachrichtensenders „CNN“ gibt es Verhandlungen zwischen der USA und irakischen Militärs mit dem Ziel, dass sich irakische Truppenteile im Fall eines US-Militärschlags nicht an den Kämpfen beteiligten. Der Bericht nährte die Hoffnung, dass der weithin als sicher angenommene Krieg verhindert werden könnte. Es kam rasch zu Deckungskäufen im Dollar, was sich als zusätzliche Belastung für Gold erwies, da ein Anstieg der US-Devise das in Dollar angeschriebene Gold für nicht-amerikanische Anleger teurer macht.

„Kriegsprämie“ droht zu verpuffen

Das als sicherer Hafen geltende Gold selber wird laut Händlern seit geraumer mit einer „Kriegsprämie“ gehandelt. Ein Ausbleiben von Kampfhandlungen oder ein kurzer Krieg in der Golfregion könnte zu großen Preisrückgängen führen. Vor dem letzten Golfkrieg notierte das gelbe Metall bei über 400 Dollar; nach Ausbruch der Kampfhandlungen sackte der Feinunzenpreis dann um 40 Dollar ab.

„Solange ein Zeitplan für eine Militärattacke nicht vorliegt, dürfte der Markt noch weitere markante Taucher hinnehmen müssen,“ sagte ein Edelmetallhändler. Auch andere Marktteilnehmer erwarten angesichts der dünnen Umsätze eine anhaltende Volatilität. Viele Investoren verharrten an der Seitenlinie, bis eine Entscheidung in Sachen Irak gefallen ist, sagen sie. Eine wichtige Unterstützung für den Feinunzenpreis wird bei 341,45 Dollar gesehen. Fällt diese, dürfte das Edelmetall bis auf den niedrigsten Stand seit Dezember 2002 zurückfallen.

Quellen: IS.eFinance Solutions using Standard&Poor`s ComStock Inc. und weitere.
IS.eFinance Solutions implemented and powered by IS Innovative Software AG, © 2000 - 200__________________________________________________-
Umso besser ,dann kann man mit "Schrott Fiat Money "
mehr Glanz kaufen.
und nicht vergessen , wieder in die Rettungsboote einzusteigen, sonst kommt jede Hilfe zu spät

[AKonopatzki]

Es scheint so als wollte keiner mehr an seinem Gold festhalten wollen,

welches in Amerika lagert.

Politische Börsen prägen die Kurse.

Wir spielen "Schwarzer Peter" und Erleben die Metamorphose unserer Kaufkraft durch alle Indexbereiche in Vorbereitung des Jahrhundetcrashs.

Durchhalten ! ! !

Gold bless us, the world hate US.

Wer kann eigentlich sagen,

welche Länder
Wieviel Tonnen Gold

in Amerika (noch) lagern haben?

[matthiasch]

Au weia

Naja, zumindest erwischt es die Minen heute nicht mehr.

Da werde ich natürlich langsam auch über einen Einstieg in physisches Gold nachdenken müssen

Gruß matthiasch

[Basic]

Wie schon gesagt, am Goldpreis hats nicht gelegen, das die Aktien gepurzelt sind.
Da das Verhältnis Xau/Gold so grottenschlecht wie im Herbst 2000 konnte der Preisrutsch beim Gold als Katalysator wirken.
Den Boden haben wir erst mal gesehen.

Gruß Basic

[Aktienratgeber]

Ich hatte im Dezember schon bei Goldmünzen zugeschlagen und heute habe ich mir mal wieder 5 Oz Krügerrand a 315€ bei der Dredner Bank geholt (bieten derzeit die besten Einkaufspreise bei Goldmünzen).
Hätte nicht gedacht nochmal so günstig einzukaufen, Gold wird schon in Kürze wieder Kurse um 400$ sehen und in 2004 werden wir über die 500$/Unze klettern.
Ich präferiere zwar im allg. Aktien, aber in schlechten Zeiten muß man schlau sein und sich mit sicheren Werten wie Gold und Silber absichern.

[manfred1_I]

an thai-guru

du hättest dir vor einigen Tagen wie ich einige
Stillwater ins Depot legen sollen.
Schau sie heute mal an.

[bluemoons]

Rohstoffe
Bei Gold dürfte der wahre Glanz zurückkommen

13. März 2003 Gold, das „edle Metall“ beflügelt von jeher die Fantasie der Menschen und führt zu einer entsprechenden Begehrlichkeit. Ein Barren Gold im Banksafe oder goldener Schmuck - wer träumt nicht davon. Wer würde sich nicht gerne hin und wieder zumindest heimlich am geheimnisvollen Funkeln des edlen Metalls zu ergötzen?

Aber ist das alleine Grund genug, in das Metall zu investieren? Auf der einen Seite bringt es keinerlei Ertrag. Es schüttet keine Dividende aus und es zahlt keinen Kupon. Die einzige Möglichkeit, damit Geld zu verdienen ist die, über einen steigenden Preis. Alternativ ist es vor allem in Krisenzeiten gefragt, wenn es eher darauf ankommt, die angesparten Werte zu konservieren. Und in diesem Zusammenhang stellt Gold für manche Anleger einfach das Symbol für eine nachhaltige Werthaltigkeit schlechthin dar.

Gold ist robust und relativ selten

Selbst wenn alles andere untergehen sollte, wenn die Notenbanken die Märkte mit ihrem Papiergeld überschwemmen sollten - aktuell ist die Geldpolitik beinahe weltweit extrem locker - das gelbe Metall wird immer bleiben was es ist: erstens robust und beinahe unzerstörbar und zweitens relativ selten.

Wieso konnte das Gold dann in den Jahren 1999 und 2001 bis auf knapp 250 Dollar je Unze fallen? Ganz einfach, weil erstens die Alternativen - sprich hohe Zinsen und attraktive Aktienrenditen - interessanter erschienen. Zweitens haben Notenbanken begonnen, ihre Goldbestände auf den Markt zu werfen. Drittens haben sich Goldproduzenten per Termin gegen fallende Kurse abgesichert und damit indirekt den Verkaufsdruck verstärkt.

Alle diese Faktoren haben sich in der Zwischenzeit verändert. Die Aktien sind alles andere als attraktiv, die Zinsen sind auf einem Rekordtief, die Notenbanken haben ihre Verkaufsabsichten koordiniert, viele Produzenten haben ihre Absicherungsaktivitäten eingestellt und zusätzlich haben sie in der jüngeren Vergangenheit auf Grund des gefallenen Rohstoffpreises ihre Förderkapazitäten reduziert und Kosten gesenkt.

Nachfrage wird langfristig zunehmen

Gleichzeitig tut sich auch etwas auf der Nachfrageseite. Denn ohne die Notenbankverkäufe gibt es schon seit Jahren einen Nachfrageüberhang. Die industrielle Nachfrage übertrifft die Goldproduktion um etwa 1.000 Tonnen pro Jahr. Und sie dürfte zunehmen. Denn vor allem der Fernen Osten dürfte auf Grund des starken Wachstums rund um China der Bedarf und das Interesse deutlich zunehmen. Dabei wird sehr wahrscheinlich nicht nur die Nachfrage nach Schmuck oder die aus der Industrie eine Rolle spielen, sondern gerade auch die Notenbanken könnten für die gigantischen Währungsreserven wenigstens zum Teil Alternativen zum schwächelnden Dollar suchen. Das könnte die Nachfrage nach Gold längerfristig deutlich steigen lassen.

Zu den Gewinnern einer solchen Entwicklung dürfte nicht nur der Goldpreis an sich gehören, sondern auch die Minenwerte. In diesem Bereich hat in den vergangenen Jahren eine deutliche Konsolidierung stattgefunden. Weniger Produzenten fördern das Metall wesentlich effizienter, als das früher der Fall war. Experten suchen nach Goldminen, die bei einem steigenden Goldpreis überproportional profitieren, aber bei einem fallenden Goldpreis nicht gefährdet sind. Dabei kommen sie auf Harmony Gold und Gold Fields aus Südafrika und in Australien auf Croesus Mining und Kingsgate Consolidated. Die größten Unternehmen sind sortiert nach der Bilanzsumme Anglogold, Gold Fields, Harmony Gold, Chugai Mining, Western Areas, Newmont Mining, Barrick Gold und Placer Dome.
faznet.de

[bluemoons]

TAKE DELIVERY

Don Stott

The COMEX seems to be the main culprit for the stagnant price of silver. In spite of the fact that there is very little of it in stockpiles, if any, silver prices continue to languish. Here`s one reason. When people "take delivery" of their silver contracts, which are in ugly, heavy, thousand ounce bars, they leave them at the COMEX!

This is comparable to buying groceries and leaving them at the grocery store. If they are in the COMEX "warehouse," they aren`t in your possession, and unavailable if you need them. Similar to various precious metals firms, especially the one I started out with back in the 1970`s, "storing" clients` gold for them. Nuts to that. Millions were lost, when North American Coin and Currency went down the tubes, and their officers went to jail. It has been reliably estimated that from 4 to 8 large traders are manipulating silver by continually trading long and short over 300 million ounces of silver which doesn`t exist. Even though it is against all rules and ethics to do so, the daily manipulation continues.

No one wants those thousand ounce silver bars which the COMEX delivers, because they are difficult to ship, never weigh in at 1,000 ounces and should be disposed of if they are acquired. They usually are not delivered, but sit in the "warehouse"…if they are there at all. No, I am not saying the 1,000 ounce silver bars are not there, but has anyone ever seen them? Is it possible that they are not all there? The COMEX doesn`t even have a "warehouse," first of all. The "warehouses" are deposit receipts for silver supposedly stored at various east coast banks. Does it exist? Are the deposit receipts valid? Is everyone honest? Is the Pope a Protestant? I feel quite certain that there isn`t a dime`s worth of gold in Ft. Knox, even though the reliable US government claims to have over 8,000 tons of gold. I`d be willing to bet they haven`t an ounce. If they did, why do they have to buy gold on the open market to make Gold Eagles? Why don`t they take it from Ft. Knox? Where do they get their silver? They admit they have none in their vaults. Does the US government get silver from COMEX deposit receipts, and take delivery from various storage banks to make Silver Eagles? I don`t know, but I do know that if you want silver to go up, you need to take delivery of it, and especially if you trade silver contracts.

Paper silver doesn`t have any value, any more than paper dollars. Paper silver or COMEX deposit receipts, are only as good as the physical silver which backs them. Do banks have a lot of paper money if you wished to get say $25,000 in cash. Hah! Try it. You just can`t imagine the chicanery that goes on in the financial world. Banks can loan ten times as much as they have on deposit, thanks to the fractional reserve banking system. Is it remotely possible that COMEX deposit receipts for thousand ounce bars, supposedly stored at various banks on the east coast, can`t 100% be delivered? Are banks honest in their other actions? Is the Fed honest, when it prints billions and trillions of fiat dollar bills, which are redeemable in nothing? As an example of honesty in high places, take this quote from the latest Forbes Magazine. "The U.S. Federal Trade Commission has created more than a dozen Web sites touting such products as income tax avoidance, weight loss without exercise, huge travel discounts, and $100,000-a-month home businesses. The Feds insist they don`t collect data on anyone" And pigs do fly, correct? If you buy silver, or take delivery of a fulfilled contract, GET IT!

By taking delivery of silver, you increase the demand. If you trade silver, and let it sit in a warehouse, rather than in your safe or wherever you may store it, the demand is not increased. If you bought groceries, and left them in the store for someone else to take delivery of, even though you may have paid for them, the demand is not from your purchase, but from the person who comes along, buys, and takes the groceries home. I have one client who takes delivery of those thousand ounce bars, because he doesn`t trust the COMEX receipts to be reliable. Sure, they are bulky and not even pretty, but by taking delivery, they are yours, and the demand has increased. By not taking delivery, the silver inventory remains constant, and prices are not likely to go up. If times are going to be as rough as I think they are going to be, one needs to have their metals at hand.

One web site says that gold should be stored in Switzerland! Of all the asinine advice ever given, that takes the cake. You own gold to hedge yourself and protect yourself, correct? Then why would you want to store it any place but in your own home or place of safety and easy access? Gold ten thousand miles away, is an absurdity, just as is gold in some account off shore in the Caribbean or other inaccessible place. If times get rough, as we thought they would with Y2K, would you have stored your food, water, generator or flashlights in a distant city or country? Of course not. If you go out in a boat to catch some fish, do you leave your life preserver on shore? If you go for a swim, do you leave your swim suit at home? Why would you leave your silver in a warehouse, your gold at some distant place, or your food in the grocery store, and especially after you have paid for it? Honestly, I sometimes think I am writing to first graders.

Maybe, if Futures traders of silver began taking delivery of those bars, and converted them into decent hundred or ten ounce bars or silver rounds, the price would go up, because the supply of available silver would decrease, and force the day of reckoning that much sooner. When hard times come, you want your safety devices close at hand. If the COMEX racket isn`t stopped, the day will come soon enough anyway, because there just are not any silver reserves worth mentioning. When my rounds and ten ounce bars are manufactured, they are made from melted down thousand ounce bars, and I assume Johnson-Mathey does the same when they cast their hundred ounce bars. The thousand ounce bars are .999 pure. The problem with them is that they are incredibly heavy, and never weigh in at an exact thousand ounces. Get them, sell them, and take the silver back in hundred ounce bars or lower sizes that are easy to handle, and simple to sell when one wants to do so.

Everyone places so much trust in huge organizations and corporations which may not be worth a hoot in hell. I`ve seen metals "storage" outfits not have an ounce left, when claims were made. I`ve seen banks go bust. I`ve seen stock frauds and mining frauds galore. Why should one trust the COMEX to have your silver? Maybe it has most of it. Maybe it has all of it, but it belongs in your hot little hands, not in some eastern bank`s vault. Your gold belongs in your place of safe keeping, not in some obscure place across the waters, with you holding a receipt or checkbook, which is supposed to be the same as physical. It isn`t.

How many men have come home, found their homes empty, and a note saying, "goodbye?" Marriage is supposed to be the utmost form of trust, but half of them go bad and 75% of them are broken by wives who were trusted. The most intimate, close relationships gone asunder, and the victim never mistrusted the other party. Why then, should you trust your precious metals to some bank or storage facility? Why should your gold be in Switzerland, of all places?

Hot off the wires! More new paper, fiat "money" will be announced in a couple of weeks. This time it`ll be in colors besides the usual green. How long before they say, "Your old dollars will be no good after…..date?" (Shades of Germany in 1924 and 1948) Protect yourself.



Don Stott
March 8, 2003

Don Stott has been a precious metals broker since 1977, has written five books, hundreds of columns, and his web site is www.coloradogold.com

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[ThaiGuru]

http://www.usagold.com

The Afternoon Gold Report...

by Jon Warner

March 13, 2003 (usagold.com)

New York spot gold settled lower at $335.70 an ounce down $10.70 an ounce from yesterday’s close. All markets were responding to reports, later dismissed by the U.S. State Department, that some Iraqi military leaders were negotiating surrender if the U.S. should invade. The dollar headed towards its biggest gain against the euro in seven months as investors speculated a U.S.-led war against Iraq would be short. The Central Intelligence Agency is in talks with some Iraqi military leaders to get them to surrender in the event of an attack, Cable News Network reported yesterday, citing unidentified U.S. officials. A CIA spokesman declined to comment. U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said Tuesday that some of Iraq`s military is being ``privately communicated with.`` A quick war may cause traders to buy back dollars they borrowed and sold on concern they would lose any profits they made. Traders said the rising dollar and stock markets in reaction to the Iraq news fueled gold`s liquidation, which triggered a whole series of stop-loss sell orders. "Today was a landslide because a series of stop-loss orders were set off one after the other," said one gold dealer. "Stops everywhere liquidating," said one COMEX broker.

Bill Fleckenstein, president of Fleckenstein Capital said "A lot of people have the playbook out for the last time this happened, and the pressure has started because they say, `Oh, the war is going to start and I have to sell my gold because the invasion will be successful.`" However, war aside, "the problem is the bubble and the debt problems, and the overcapacity problems, and the consumer being overloaded," he adds. "People will own gold because it is the only currency that is no one else`s liability," he says. "I really thought the loss of extreme confidence in paper would tend to push people to own some sort of hard asset in their portfolio. After all, there are no real currencies left. The euro has a lot of issues, and so do the dollar and the yen. All of these countries are willing to debase their currencies." He added, "I suspect the paper market will have a big rally on the war, but I don`t know if it will last five minutes or 90 days. Once we get past that, we start to look at the problems of debt ($31 trillion in all sectors of the American economy, or almost three times gross domestic product), none of these currencies are worth a damn thing. Why any foreigner would want to own dollars right now, I don`t know."

London gold was fixed this afternoon at $334.50 an ounce, down from $342.90 an ounce at the morning fixing. Early in the session analysts were upbeat about the prospects for gold. A firmer dollar and a sharp rally in global equity markets prompted the losses in bullion according to Ross Norman of TheBullionDesk.com. "Investors are now believing that things are going to be over more quickly than thought previously," Mr Norman said. "We`ve seen unprecedented strength on the Dollar and that has pressurised gold," said Norman. "This is related to the geopolitical situation," he said, noting overnight reports that the CIA is talking to Iraqi military forces in the hope of persuading troops to surrender in any conflict. He said key technical support for gold at $341/oz had been breached, triggering further stop-loss selling. "It was technical selling on the back of a stronger dollar," said Peter Hillyard, head of European metals sales at ANZ Investment Bank. ``The move you get on the back of these stories only goes to show that if there were a quick resolution to the Iraqi crisis, then we could get a rapid upward movement in the dollar,`` said Murray Gunn, who helps manage $125 billion as director of currencies at Standard Life Investments in Edinburgh, Scotland. "With the timescale for war still undecided, the market is likely to see further sharp dips," said James Moore in an overnight report. "Will the U.S. go it alone? That is the big question on most people`s minds," Moore said.

Earlier spot gold closed at $344.05 an ounce on Thursday in Hong Kong, down $5.60 an ounce from Wednesday`s close of $349.65. Gold prices sank in Asia on Thursday in active trade, including a pick-up in demand from physical buyers. The losses came despite a softer yen, higher oil prices and fears that war in Iraq is inevitable. "The market has already (factored in) an attack by the U.S... The U.S. is still going to do it," a dealer with a big Japanese trading house said. The rally in the dollar was one reason for a marking down in spot gold prices. A Sydney trader said gold weakened in line with a selldown of the euro and a strengthening of the U.S. dollar, a trend seen among many currencies. The "euro got smashed and so did gold," he said. This trader said gold likely will drift lower in the next day or two, but find good support around $340-$342/oz. "The euro has been hammered", said one forex trader in Hong Kong. "We are seeing physical demand slightly improving, but we are still hoping for better," said Maggie Loh, dealer at United Overseas Bank in Singapore. "I think that we are going to see $340 in the near term and probably better demand at that level," Loh said. Dealers in Hong Kong as well as Singapore said there was a slight improvement in physical gold buying interest after Wednesday`s near five-dollar decline in the spot price overnight.

The dollar jumped and U.S. Treasuries sagged on Thursday on a report that some Iraqi officials were in surrender talks with the United States, but fears that war may still be inevitable undermined Asian stocks. "I think those rumours did have some impact, but overall it`s unwinding of piled-up positions ahead of a likely war and profit-taking from recent levels," said Junya Tanase, global markets officer at JP Morgan Chase. ``Expectations the U.S. may be able to avoid war or that a war with Iraq would end quickly encouraged dollar buying,`` said Koji Fukaya, chief analyst in the foreign exchange and treasury division at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi Ltd. ``No war or a quick ending to war would improve consumer sentiment in the U.S. and that`s good for its economy and currency.`` However, rumors swirled over Japanese dollar buying and yen selling. The dollar had its biggest rise against the yen in almost five weeks on speculation Japan will sell its currency for a third month. The government sold 1.2 trillion yen ($10.2 billion) in January and February. It sold several hundred billion yen on March 7, after the yen strengthened to 116.35 against the dollar, its strongest since August, the Nihon Keizai said over the weekend, without citing anyone. ``The government seems to have a strong determination to stem the yen`s rise ahead of the fiscal year end, which helped lead yen- selling earlier,`` said Xinyi Lu, chief strategist at UFJ Bank Ltd. Selling more yen this month than in January and February would send the currency to as low as to 119.00 by March 30, he said.


GEOPOLITICAL NEWS:

The United States said on Thursday it might abandon its search for a U.N. Security Council majority to authorize a looming invasion of Iraq, as its diplomatic efforts suffered new setbacks. Still lacking Security Council support for a resolution that would give Iraq a few more days to satisfy its disarmament demands, the White House said diplomatic efforts could spill over into next week. But Secretary of State Colin Powell said Washington could also pull the resolution, co-sponsored by Britain and Spain, and wage war under the authority of previous U.N. votes at the head of a "coalition of the willing."

Iraq will send a report on its disposal of VX nerve agent to chief U.N. weapons inspector Hans Blix on Friday and will submit a report on anthrax a few days later, a diplomatic source said. Blix asked Iraq to submit full reports on VX and anthrax to support their assertions that the weapons were destroyed after the 1991 Gulf War. The United States and Britain, which have threatened to invade Iraq, say Baghdad has failed to account for all its VX and anthrax production. Baghdad denies possessing weapons of mass destruction, and says it is cooperating fully with the United Nations.


ECONOMIC NEWS:

Initial claims for unemployment aid fell 15,000 to a seasonally adjusted 420,000 for the week ended March 8 from a revised 435,000 a week earlier, the department said. The report was in line with expectations on Wall Street. Economists say first-time filings above the 400,000 level are a sign of a lackluster jobs market. The four-week average -- considered a more reliable guide to the health of the jobs market because it smoothes weekly volatility -- rose 9,750 to 419,750, the department said. The department said the number of unemployed workers who remained on the benefit rolls after filing an initial claim rose to the highest level since mid-November in the week ended March 1, the latest week for which figures are available. These so-called continued claims climbed by 14,000 to 3.50 million.

U.S. retail sales staged an unexpectedly deep slide in February, their largest drop since November 2001, as spending sank across a wide range of sectors, the government said on Thursday in a report indicating war fears and snowstorms kept consumers away from the shops. The Commerce Department said retail sales fell 1.6 percent in February, the first drop since September of last year when the economy was showing signs of flagging. The decline was far worse than the 0.4 percent dip analysts had expected.


Comment: Gold took a big hit in New York this morning on heavy bank and fund selling in response to a strengthening U.S. dollar and soaring equities markets. Gold fell hard as stops were triggered pushing gold lower by as much as $14 an ounce before coming off the lows. The rumor mill was churning out rumors overnight and throughout the trading session in New York. It now appears that war with Iraq may be postponed indefinitely or be put off altogether. Another rumor was that U.S. Department of Defense officials are in contact with high ranking Iraqi government officials and military officers and they are supposedly discussing surrender options. Another rumor is that a new United Nations Security Council resolution will be presented next week for a vote without a set deadline for compliance. Yet another rumor is that British Prime Minister Tony Blair is ready to back out of the alliance with the United States against Iraq. The U.S. dollar made strong gains against all major currencies over the last 24 hours and the rumor is that the Japanese government had been aggressively selling the Yen and buying the U.S. dollar. It was quite a wild day in all the markets and yet it was all driven by rumors.

One could not blame gold investors if they were angry or dismayed over today’s sharp drop in the price of gold. However, I am quite amused. The global economy is still in a shambles, unemployment is rising, debt levels are still at all time record highs (and growing), corporate earnings have failed to materialize, energy costs remain very high (amid record low inventories), and the threat of terrorism and war is ever present. The U.S. dollar remains grossly overvalued for the world’s largest debtor nation and regional currencies continue to be devalued by their respective nations (or trading block in the case of the EU) for a competitive edge. This is an untenable situation of course. The drop in the price of gold (and gold shares for that matter) will be reversed as the extremely large short positions must eventually be covered. The question is who will be first to break rank and cover? When that happens it will likely trigger an explosive rally as no one wants to be the last one standing without a chair when the music stops. In the meantime this is an excellent opportunity for those who are dollar cost averaging into precious metals positions.


-Jon H. Warner-


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Jon Warner is a professional geologist with nearly 24 years in exploration and project development in both mining and petroleum. Mr. Warner brings to the table an impressive industry contact list, thorough knowledge of the precious metals and energy markets as well as a practical understanding of gold`s role in the private investment portfolio. His strong knowledge in these fields has been demonstrated at the USAGOLD Discussion Forum where he posts on a regular basis as Black Blade.



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March 13 – Gold $335.40 down $10.70 – Silver $4.53 down 11 cents

"Calculated Disinformation Effort" Tanks Gold, Sparks Big Stock Market Rally

"Noble souls, through dust and heat, rise from disaster and defeat the stronger."
Henry Wadsworth Longfellow

For the third time in five trading sessions, a rumor was circulated in the New York financial arena to trash gold and prop up the US stock market. It is beyond absurd that financial market players and the media do not ridicule such shenanigans. They say nothing, or cheerleads them on. Then again, what would you expect from Wall Street stock market bulls, bullion-banking shorts and the apologist financial press? The rumor today was that senior Iraqi generals were negotiating a surrender with US special forces.The timing was perfect to tank gold, as it was just beginning to break key technical support. See chart:

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/43
(Updates about 7:15 EST)

The Gold Cartel forces were lying in wait to steal more money from the public and quickly went into action on Comex, taking gold down $14. That may have been the biggest one-day move in 3 1/2 years. Once again, stock futures soared prior to the opening of the US market.

I have got to stop having coffee in the morning, as the major price action transpired while I was brewing some in my kitchen. When told of the rumors, I asked at the time, "What is oil doing?" The response was, "Barely moving." That was the obvious tip-off that the Working Group on Financial Markets was swinging into action to manipulate the US financial markets. Had the rumor been reasonable or true, oil would have dropped $6/$8 immediately. Nothing could be more bearish for the oil price than surrender.

In yesterday`s MIDAS, I called this depraved rumor nonsense, "farcical." Last Friday, I called this PPT drill "pathetic." Just when you think it can’t get more loony and rigged, it does. Today was nothing more than more disinformation brought to you by the Working Group on Financial Markets. This is the real scoop:

Bill,

Regarding today`s rumor of the day regarding CIA making a deal with Iraq military leaders, you can read the attached assessment by a former Intel guy sitting on the IRAQ border as we speak and his assessment. He is currently consultant to many and my former college roommate at VMI. The powers that be are long stocks huge, long dollar huge, and short gold huge. They will stop at nothing to protect their money. Unfortunately I am opposite them in all positions and will fight them as I think they are wrong.

Regards,
Jeff

****

We`ve been hearing about private communications between the US and Iraqi military leadership for sometime now - emails, cell phone calls, etc. There are perhaps some extremely limited HUMINT contacts as well. I believe these contacts probably amount to nothing and the open announcement of such contacts by Sec. Rumsfeld suggest it is a calculated disinformation effort aimed at sowing distrust and suspicion amongst the Iraqi leadership. If there were potentially successful surrender negotiations on-going the last thing the US would do is jeopardize the deal by revealing it to the public.

The intrusive, omnipresent Iraqi security apparatus will preclude any significant Iraqi defections until it is absolutely clear Saddam will fall. That probably won`t be evident until 3-4 days into the campaign. In the interim Iraqi forces will still have to make a token effort, at least until it becomes obvious a surrender attempt won`t result in their demise. Rumsfeld is certainly correct that large numbers of Iraqi soldiers will be
in the new Iraqi army. That obvious assumption is more likely based on the behavior of the Iraqi soldiers in the first Gulf war who tried to surrender to anyone who even resembled a westerner, the reports of recent deserters, and the terribly poor conditions endured by the regular Iraqi army than any information garnered from secret contacts with Iraqi commanders.

So how will Iraqi forces signal their desire to surrender? White cloth is particularly useful as are the assumption of non-aggressive "administrative" postures (such as turning tank turret guns to the rear and locking them in place). You`ve probably already seen this story from the Sunday Mirror but it is quite illustrative of the poor morale and condition of the regular Iraqi soldiers who obviously can`t wait for the opportunity to avoid the coming whirlwind. (If this report is factual I can assure you these Iraqi soldiers were executed if their surrender attempt was discovered.)

Iraqi Soldiers Try to Surrender to British Troops
http://www.sundaymirror.co.uk/news/news/page.cfm?objectid=12…

Secret Surrender Negotiations Underway
http://edition.cnn.com/2003/US/03/12/sprj.irq.iraq.secret.su…

Dale R. Davis

A former Marine Middle East Specialist and Counterintelligence Officer, Dale R. Davis is Director of International Programs and Lecturer of Arabic and Middle East Security Studies at the Virginia Military Institute (http://new.vmi.edu). He is currently in Kuwait serving as military advisor to the Kuwaiti Ministry of Information. He can be contacted in Kuwait by phone at [phone]. If you would like to be removed from this military developments and analysis list please respond accordingly via email.

****
You have to wonder how horrific the stress is in the US financial system right now for the PPT to go after gold this badly and drum up silly rumors day after day to keep our stock market from crashing. My guess is that our financial system is close to cracking and the PPT is scared to death that a rising gold price will be the spark to set off a derivatives nightmare. They must have had an inkling of what was going to happen when gold popped up to $388. Next thing we know Treasury Secretary Snow is sworn in and gold is annihilated. Not the euro, not oil, not bonds, just gold.

As Café member John F. asks:

"how much taxpayer money is needed to jam the stock market, ramp the dollar and tank the gold market." http://app.ny.frb.org/dmm/mkt.cfm"
"For today`s action, $10Bn," says John.

GATA’s Mike Bolser sees it this way:

The REPOS Tell A Story

Hi Bill:

Here is today`s Fed repo temporary market operation numbers. $10Billion in 7-day and 28-day repurchase agreements. It has had the desired effect with the DOW now up 180 as I write.

That the putative reason for this "Rally" was placed upon a secret surrender meeting reveals just how thin the veil of PPT manipulation has become. Nothing has changed in the macro economic landscape and yet the riggers keep fishing to lure the average investor back.

One can fairly guess than when Bernie Ebbers, Kenneth Lay and the other leading Wall Street infamous crooks are convicted and given a stiff prison sentence the confidence healing might start...but not before. All this market rigging foolishness is way over the top.

Indeed it smacks of a desperate problem with derivatives timing. The war was supposed to have already been done. Because it still drags on in a kind of limbo we see these absurdly artificial "Events" concocted to "Explain" rallys" and "gold drops".

In 1999 virtually no one knew the gold market was rigged and just how much metal had been consumed in the process. Today the situation is quite different with clear gold market intervention out on the open. The drainage transfer of gold from West to East will only accelerate.

Best, Mike

Very well put, Mike.

The gold trading today after the monster break down was VERY HEAVY. Gold barely budged after its early trashing. That tells me The Gold Cartel mobilized a HUGE amount of gold to keep it subdued, right above $330. Some of my learned colleagues point out that markets often come back to test break out points ($330 for gold). That’s true, but the volatility had better pick up soon if gold is to move back up in the next few weeks. We need some serious up and down trading action. In the meantime, gold will need a little time to compose itself after such a coordinated beating.

Ironically, the gold fundamentals have never been more bullish. However, that does not count for much in the short-term when a market is rigged by the US Government and affiliated bullion banks. It will now take a surge of physical gold demand to eat through the mobilized US gold. That is just what ought to happen.

After the early big break, many of the dealers were buyers, perhaps for producers wanting to cover forward sales. It makes little sense that the hedgers would be sellers down here, not after all the recent derivatives flap. This is the chance for them to cover at the prices they said they were waiting for. Funds were sellers along with the PPT.

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

Thursday March 13 2003

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $5.60, PM $6.02, with world gold at $343.25 and $342.50. Far above legal import level. India will be a strong buyer from overseas at these prices. Official markets there are on holiday tomorrow (which does not usually preclude activity).

Administration officials discreetly leaking to their friends at CNN the concept that the Iraqi army might independently capitulate created a turbulent market in the Far East today. The dollar soared; and the gold price came under crushing pressure in Tokyo: but the nature of the pressure was significant:

"Traders attributed much of the day`s volume to arbitrage by big trading houses keen to take advantage of a widening spot-forward spread."

Observed Reuters (e.g. buying overseas and selling on TOCOM.) In other words the Japanese public did not rush to sell: some were bludgeoned out of their long positions but others interestingly stepped forward: open interest actually rose the equivalent of 445 Comex lots on hugely increased activity equal to 54,922 Comex lots (113% above Wednesday’s) The active contract closed down 21 yen, a level not seen since mid-December, and $ US gold was down $3.35. Buying at low prices by the public is a systematic feature of Tokyo Commodities markets.

At the risk of seeming to emulate Andy Smith, and of disclosing one’s antiquity, this market action calls into mind the song made famous by Kenny Rogers in 1978:

"You never count your money when you`re sittin` at the table There`ll be time enough for countin`, when the dealin`s done" Standard-London deserves credit for formulating the question well: · "Given the strength of the energy sector, the weakness in gold is difficult to understand, and the answer may be that there is some real selling in the market, either producers or official, or both." (JB italics) Indisputably, the technical situation is bad, and many parties disposed to emulate City Hall – and all the technicians – will now be in action on the downside. The premiums in the physical market, however, suggest the downside is limited.

Two experienced observers have expressed interest in the (very recent) relative strength in gold shares: Richard Russell last night: "XAU in what could be a key reversal ended up .58 to 63.66." and James Turk:

http://www.goldmoney.com/

"Generally speaking, when the XAU costs over 10gg, the XAU is expensive relative to gold, and should be sold. Also, when the XAU costs less than 6gg, the XAU is cheap and should be bought. Today the cost on the XAU close was 5.71gg. Yesterday it was 5.60gg. Clearly, by this measure the XAU is very cheap."

Generally, the current situation closely resembles the painful sell-off of last July, precipitated by a violent physical seller and ultimately stopped stalwart Indian buying. Who and Why remain unanswered questions.

JB

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

Price action, disinformation and rigging operations make market commentary. European markets soared (up six to seven %) as did the DOW (7821, up 270) and the DOG (1340, up 61). What changed in a day? Nothing, except The Working Group on Financial Markets made it clear that stock bears and gold bulls were going nowhere in the short-term. The US economic news continues to worsen:

Washington, March 13 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. retail sales fell last month by the most since November 2001 as Americans bought fewer cars, furniture and building materials, restraining an economy struggling to gain strength.

The 1.6 percent drop was three times the median estimate and followed a revised 0.3 percent increase a month earlier, the Commerce Department`s figures showed. Not including vehicles, retail sales fell 1 percent, the largest drop since the terrorist attacks in September 2001, after a revised 1.2 percent gain. –END-

Washington, March 13 (Bloomberg) -- Filings for state unemployment benefits in the U.S. held above 400,000 for a fourth straight week as companies curbed hiring in the face of economic weakening.

States received 420,000 applications for jobless aid in the week ended Saturday, the Labor Department said. That followed 435,000 the prior week, the highest since mid-December. The less volatile four-week moving average of claims rose to 419,750, the highest this year.

As the prospect of war with Iraq unsettled companies, consumers and financial markets, the economy stumbled last month. Payrolls fell 308,000 in February and consumer confidence fell to a nine-year low, prompting some economists to predict the Federal Reserve will soon cut its benchmark interest rate target to the lowest since Dwight D. Eisenhower was president.

``The labor market has clearly lost momentum again,`` said James O`Sullivan, an economist at UBS Warburg LLC in Stamford, Connecticut. The figures ``don`t show the economy is collapsing, but it clearly shows some weakening.`` -END-

After a one-day rally, Tokyo stocks retreated again last night:

TOKYO (CBS.MW) -- Tokyo stocks dropped Thursday as investors turned their noses on the government`s stock-boosting measures and sold blue chips amid fears of war in Iraq and tension in the Korean peninsula.

Elsewhere, South Korean stocks fell for an eighth consecutive day to end at a fresh 17-month low. Stocks were down from the get-go after Japanese media reported that North Korea may test launch a Rodong medium-range ballistic missile within days………………..

Japan to announce market measures

The Japanese government is expected to announce market-boosting measures ranging from the expansion of the Bank of Japan`s stock purchase program to joint interventions in the foreign currency market.

The Financial Services Agency will unveil a plan to support stock prices, including calls on financial institutions to give consideration to market trends before selling their shareholdings. The FSA will also ask the BOJ to raise the 2 trillion yen ($16.9 billion) ceiling on the amount of shares that it can buy from commercial banks, the daily said.

The reported measures helped to curb selling, but failed to spur further buying, analysts said.

"None of these reported measures is powerful enough to change market sentiment. In fact, people are becoming more nervous about the tangled situation in Iraq and North Korea`s nuclear threat," said Noboru Saruya, an equity information manager from Shinko Securities. –END-

The Japanese Finance Minister was recently in Washington and met with Treasury Secretary John Snow. While the Japanese openly admit to manipulating their markets, the US "deludes" the investing public and lies about it.

Must have been some meeting: Two PPT honchos from different countries sharing market-fixing strategies.


The Argentina/gold story has legs:

Argentine President Candidate Urges Peso-Gold Link, Herald Says

By Claire Shoesmith

Buenos Aires, March 13 (Bloomberg) -- Nestor Kirchner, seeking to become president of Argentina, will try to return the country to a monetary system where the peso is backed by gold reserves, the Buenos Aires Herald said, citing Kirchner`s economics adviser.

The return to a gold standard would be part of a policy involving ``neither dollarization nor multiple currencies,`` the paper cited Kirchner`s adviser, Jose Maria Las Heras, as saying.

The policy would aim for the peso`s value to eventually converge with a single Mercosur currency, Heras was cited as saying. The Mercosur region includes Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay….
(Buenos Aires Herald Online 3-13)

This stagflation story may interest:

Return of Stagflation

http://www.mises.org/fullstory.asp?control=1181

Silver was slammed down with the orchestrated gold rout. Its fundamentals keep improving. I suspect silver will go back up quickly:

Bill:

From a CBSMW story....

Silver inventories shrank by 498,248 troy ounces at 1.1 million troy ounces, while copper stocks fell 496 short tons to 370,811 short tons.

Myra P. Saefong is a reporter for CBS.MarketWatch.com in San Francisco.

Laurie McGuirk from Sydney Australia:

Just a quick note...

Little hard to sit down today.... it happens when markets rape you.... mark to market ...mere flesh wound..... i feel like the Knight from Monty Pythons Holy Grail....

The stock markets of the world have had a massive rise the past 24 hrs, with Germany and London up 6%,USA up 4%,Gold and silver have been smashed similarly (but only the paper price..watch the Japs and Indians go nuts buying down here).The US dollar has been ramped against all currencies as well. I dunno how long this is gunna go on for, my guess is not long but could drag out 3 months like the October rally...either way THIS IS VERY TEMPORARY and the inevitable clean out has just ben delayed for a while.

Nuthin is better economically. The dollar is toast. Oil prices staying high, Fed Reserve printing dollars, debt bubble, housing bubble, increased unemployemnt, North Korea, retirement plan shortfalls, bankrupt states of the USA, Japan, China, Middle East, Israel, commodity prices .... blah,blah,blah....

get ya gold physical,and silver..physical....this is the opportunity everyone who missed earlier has been looking for. No Hesitation is saying that there is buggar all downside and massive upside....notwithstanding a war!!! there is gunna be a big silver squeeze.... try and take delivery of silver and see how long the dealer takes to deliver... .... will take weeks at least and dont even try COMEX.

Take your pick of goldstocks... gold down $14 today and goldstocks went up.... go figure.

happy buying of the goldies...

Laurie

Dave Lewis on "curiouser and curiouser"

Bill;

What an interesting couple of days. Was it only a week ago that the President announced his desire for people to "put their cards on the table" with respect to a UN vote. Earlier in the week the US, via Defense Secretary Rumsfeld, announced its willingness to enter the War without British aid, and who cares about the UN. Yesterday, Serbian PM Djindjic is assassinated by "organized crime" which could just as easily apply to Al Qaeda or Serbian Nationalists as to street thugs. Perhaps somebody has shown their cards.

All the while global equity markets were sliding to oblivion and with them a key support behind western political stability. Curiously, Gold was following the equity markets lower, almost as if to say, "so you want to see what deflation would be like, here you go." What I mean by this is, to the extent that the normal linkages between Gold and other commodities still operate, cheaper Gold means cheaper everything else, which given the current debt overhang in the western world, implies a stock market debacle potentially worse than 1929-32.

Last year I wrote an essay comparing the resolution processes of the 20s and 60s booms, which can be found here. In brief the conclusion was that the path of inflationism, should the US choose this path in the current resolution process, might lead to a reasonably strong correlation at times between Gold and the stock market with the broad picture a decade hence showing nominal equity index levels roughly unchanged while Gold rises geometrically. Judging by the relationship between the HUI and the DJIA over the past year, including yesterday`s bounce, the model seems to be holding up.

We will see in the coming days, particularly once the federal debt limit is raised again as this will allow the Fed to monetize in its usual manner. However, it seems to me that some decision was made over the past 24-36 hours and while it might seem, given current prices, to be Gold negative, I think the tide is sliding back in our favor. Don`t be fooled by the DJIA, which adjusted by Gold is currently trading south of its 1966 level (DJIA =1000, Gold at $35 in 1966). It is like the magician`s misdirection, along with warnings of the "volatility" of gold stocks, leading your eyes away from the prize.

Dave Lewis

http://www.chaos-onomics.com

Clearly, The Gold Cartel and friends were waiting for this bombing of the gold price . There is no other way to explain even a small gold share rally on such a significant drop in gold. The XAU rose .39 to 64.05, while the HUI popped 1.39 to 117.77. A technical reversal and divergence from the bullion drop suggests the gold shares have bottomed. What is amazing is that even with gold at $335, many of the gold shares are 30% to 50% below their peaks of last May when gold was trading at the $326 level. They are screaming buys!!!!!

Here we are again, looking at critical $330, this time looking at key support on the downside. Seems like all we have done is play Ring Around the Rosie since early December when gold broke out. In my opinion, it’s very abnormal for a market to retrace like this after exploding out of such a POWERFUL base. But, we know the drill and the reason why. What is important to remember is the move up to $388 was no fluke. It is just a little glimpse of the really big price action coming down the road. The Gold Cartel has expended an enormous amount of their dwindling gold supply to stave off financial market disruption. It is rear guard action only. That gold is gone and they are going through a lot more on this price bashing. It is only a matter of time before they cannot afford to play these deceptive market-rigging games any longer.

Well, it ought to be clear to all that the gold move up had little to do with the coming Iraq war. If it did, gold would be trading close to its highs as war becomes imminent, not all the way back down at its break out point. In some ways, that is bullish for the gold price in the intermediate term. Once we get the war behind us, investors may tune in to the REAL reasons why gold is headed for $800 to $1000 per ounce.

GOT TO BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

@Manfred_1

Du hast ja Recht, doch alles kann man halt nicht haben, auch wenn es etwas ärgerlich ist, falls man gerade die Minenaktie nicht, oder nicht mehr besitzt, die gerade steigt.

Bin mit Gold, und Silber Minenaktien eigentlich bereits bestens bestückt. Nur Platin, und Palladium Minen habe ich bis jetzt noch keine.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

Die Richtung stimmt wieder!



Bin mal gespannt was denn heute für ein Gerücht ansteht?

[ThaiGuru]

Selten so gelacht!

"zur Preisstabilisierung gemeldet"




http://www.fondscheck.de/Analysen/default_an.asp?sub=2&paget…

14.03.2003

Kriegsprämie für Gold fällt

NESTOR FONDS

Spekulative Käufe aus Asien zogen den Goldpreis im Februar bis auf 388 USD an, berichten die Fondsexperten von NESTOR FONDS in ihrem aktuellen Marktkommentar zum NESTOR Gold Fonds (WKN 570771).

Danach sei eine recht kräftige Reaktion auf 344 USD gefolgt, womit ein starker Abbau von Terminpositionen an der Comex und Tocom verbunden gewesen sei. Der Manager des NESTOR Gold Fonds sehe damit den größten Teil der Irak-Kriegsprämie verschwunden.

Die portugiesische Zentralbank habe den Verkauf von 30 Tonnen im Rahmen des Washington Abkommens "zur Preisstabilisierung gemeldet". Andererseits habe Indien den Importzoll auf Münzen und Barrengold reduziert und werde in China ein Einzelhandelsnetz für Gold und Goldmünzen aufbauen, was sich langfristig als sehr bullish erweisen könne.
.

[keepitshort]

#5061
Kriegsprämie für Gold fällt


was da gestern abgelaufen ist war göttlich

der oil-future ist gefallen
die 30-year-Treasury-Bonds sind gefallen
der Goldpreis ist gefallen

und alle drei Sachen werden über die Future-Märkte abgewickelt.

Schade dass mein Hintergrundwissen zu gering ist
denn beim Fernsehsender N-TV
spricht man immer vom "Krisenmetall Gold"

meinen die "das Wirtschaft-Krisen-Metall Gold"
oder
das "Kriegs-Krisen-Metall Gold"

seit 10 Jahren sehe ich N-TV und was überhitzte Bondmärkte
bedeuten weiss ich immer noch nicht.

Fernsehen macht dumm
welche ein Glück das es das Internet gibt.

P.S. : auf CNN haben die gestern doch von überhitzem
Bondmarkt gesprochen aber ohne Langzeitchart kann
sich der Laie da nicht viel drunter vorstellen
und die Aktienmärkte können ja nicht ewig sinken.

Die Bondmärkte können aber auch nicht ewig steigen.

[bluemoons]

"Gold ist das bessere Geld"
(14.03.2003)

Jetzt hat es auch das Gold erwischt. Die Entspannung, die jetzt, aus welchen Gründen auch immer, durch die Märkte geht, hat die kleine Blase platzen lassen, die sich am Terminmarkt für das Edelmetall gebildet hatte. Die Umfang der von der Spekulation netto gehaltenen Kaufengagements war bis zuletzt unverkraftbar hoch. Sie dürften mit dem Einbruch vom Donnerstag zu einem bedeutenden Teil liquidiert worden sein.

Doch wie die Spekulation in Form der Termin- oder Hedge-Fonds nun einmal ist, sie zögert nicht lange, wenn die Trendsignale auf Baisse umgeschaltet haben. Doch das hat für die überzeugten Haussiers etwas Tröstliches: Aus den entstehenden spekulativen Baissepositionen erwachsen Auftriebskräfte für den nächsten Aufschwung.

Techniker meinen, beim Unterschreiten der Marke von 330 Dollar je Feinunze würde die gesamte Hausse gebrochen. Doch gerade bei Gold sollten die Techniker nicht dogmatisch werden. Sie müssen sich fragen, ob auch nur eines der Probleme, die seinen Preis zuletzt so deutlich steigen ließen, gelöst oder beseitigt ist. Die Antwort lautet klar und vernehmlich: nein.

Nichts ist gelöst, ja noch nicht einmal entschärft. Vielmehr gewinnen die Probleme von Tag zu Tag mehr an Brisanz, vom Dollar über die Konjunktur und die Deflation bis hin zur wieder rapide wachsenden Staatsverschuldung.

Die Diskussion über das Gold hat noch einen weiten Weg vor sich. Die eigentlich interessanten Aspekte sind noch nicht einmal gestreift worden. Man wird sich nämlich eines Tages fragen müssen, wohin eine unkontrolliert wachsende Staatsverschuldung letztlich führen muss. Sie untergräbt die Währungen, und sie gibt jenen Recht, die teils aus nostalgischen, teils aber auch aus sehr realen Gründen immer wieder erklären, Gold sei das bessere Geld.



Arnd Hildebrandt

Herausgeber
Taurosweb.de

da ist was wahres dran!

[bluemoons]

Rohstoffe
(14.03.2003)

Die steigende Ölproduktion dürfte in den kommenden Monaten einen gewissen Wiederaufbau der stark geschrumpften Vorräte ermöglichen, erklärt Merrill Lynch.

Brent-Öl in London kostet 2003 durchschnittlich 26 $ je Barrel, erwartet Credit Suisse First Boston.

Die Goldproduktion in Südafrika ist 2002 erstmals seit neun Jahren gestiegen, berichtet die Bergwerkskammer dort. Es seien 395,2 Tonnen und damit 0,4 % mehr als 2001 gefördert worden.

Die Goldproduzenten dürften ihre Hedge-Bücher in der ersten Hälfte dieses Jahres um annähernd 100 Tonnen abbauen, vermutet Gold Fields Mineral Services.

Gold kostet 2003 durchschnittlich 350 $ je Feinunze, sagt Morgan Stanley voraus.

Am Kupfermarkt hat sich das Verhältnis zwischen Angebot und Nachfrage zwar gebessert, doch besteht nach wie vor ein geringer Überschuss, meint Macquarie Research.

Bei Kupfer sieht es für die Haussiers nicht gut aus, wenn man die Aktie des Produzenten Phelps Dodge betrachtet, erklärt Merrill Lynch.

Palladium dürfte 2003 zwischen 180 und 280 $ je Feinunze schwanken, erwartet Standard Bank.

Am Terminmarkt für Baumwolle in New York ist die Spekulation "unglaublich" stark auf der Kaufseite engagiert, stellt Refco fest.

Weizen in Kansas City bleibt in den nächsten Wochen extrem anfällig für Änderungen bei den Wetterprognosen, erklärt Benson-Quinn.

Der Import von Kakao in die USA ist nach amtlichen Angaben im Januar gegenüber Dezember um 145,8 % gestiegen. Gegenüber Januar letzten Jahres ergab sich eine Zunahme um 55,8 %.

Die Kakaoproduktion in Uganda soll 2002 nach privaten Angaben nur 3 100 Tonnen betragen haben. Nach amtlicher Darstellung sollen 4 200 Tonnen erzeugt worden sein.


taurosweb.de

[bluemoons]

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_03/zihlmann031403.html

[ThaiGuru]

.
.

.
.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.usagold.com

The Afternoon Gold Report...

by Jon Warner

March 14, 2003 (usagold.com)

New York spot gold settled higher at $336.00 an ounce up 60 cents an ounce from yesterday’s close. Valuations between the precious metal as a commodity and gold equities have been "coming more in line," making the market "relatively attractive," said Amaury Conti, a gold equity trader at U.S. Global Investors. Traders are more aware of the fact that nothing has changed very much as far as the U.S. budget deficit and the economy go, he said, saying that this translates into "long-term fundamentals that support gold." Gold prices have fallen around 15 percent from their high near $390 in early February, Conti said, thus removing part of the war premium and providing a "buying opportunity" for commodity traders. "The situation with Iraq is so confusing and complicated at the moment that anything is seemingly possible. The U.S. looks ready to go to war, and yet there`s stories that some of Iraq`s army are ready to give up, so no one is sure which way this is going to play out," said a floor dealer with a precious metals refiner and trader. "Also, the dollar rally could fizzle out as quickly as it started, particularly since the U.S. economy is still in really bad shape, so that could help gold out again," he added.

London gold was fixed this afternoon at $335.20 an ounce, down from $335.50 an ounce at the morning fixing. Physical buying and profit-taking have stemmed the fall for the moment and ongoing geopolitical tension and economic gloom mean the dollar is not yet out of the woods, analysts said. "I think people are sitting here almost in a state of shock, wondering what happened," said Simon Weeks, bullion director with Scotia Mocatta. He expected the market to "bed down" around the $330 area over the next few days before attempting some recovery gains. "Depending on how you view the economic situation, that should be a good long-term buying area. I guess people didn`t expect it to get here on such short order," Weeks added. "The global economy is providing little comfort and the US dollar, despite showing signs of strength, remains in a downward trend," said Martin Squires, metals analyst with JP Morgan.

The dollar retreated from a nearly three-week high against the yen on Friday morning and was slightly weaker versus the euro. Also on the plus side, gold producers remain committed to reducing or halting the amount of bullion they sell forward. "These factors are supportive of gold. But are they enough to propel the metal back to the year`s high? This we doubt, though the political risk is of course there," Squires said. "Markets had become bloated with speculative froth, and over the last week the process of blowing off the froth has commenced," Prudential Financial said in its Global metals overview. "Nowhere is the froth-blowing manifest more than in (the) purge in gold." Paul Mackell, strategist at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein, said "the last few days we`ve seen a little bit of a correction play," noting that not only has the dollar recovered, but bonds have fallen and gold prices are down. "People are reducing their short dollar positions, and it`s very difficult to tell how far the correction will go," Mackell said. Mackell stressed that there appears to be no fundamental change that has prompted the dollar`s recovery in the past few days, noting that if the market were trading on fundamentals, yesterday`s disappointing US retail sales report should have sent the euro higher. Instead, both US equities and the dollar rose.

Earlier spot gold closed at $334.80 an ounce on Friday in Hong Kong, down $9.25 an ounce from Thursday`s close of $344.05. "There was liquidation and stop-loss selling following New York`s sharp fall," said a bullion dealer with a major Japanese trading house. "We are seeing a removal of some of the war premium that has been built into the gold price," Commonwealth Bank of Australia commodities strategist David Thurtell said. As Commonwealth Bank of Australia commodities analyst David Thurtell put it: "the market appears to be positioning itself for the end of the (Iraq) war before it has even started." He added, "With the end of hostilities, the price of oil will fall, the economic outlook will brighten and equities will soar," moderating a need for safe haven assets, he said in a market review. That sort of thinking dominated Asian trading, which was evidenced by surging equities markets and a stronger U.S. dollar.

The People`s Bank of China, the central bank of the country, will no longer undertake the import and export of gold and instead have it done on agency by the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, the Bank of China, the Agricultural Bank of China and the China Construction Bank. At present, all gold ingots traded on the Shanghai Gold Exchange are made by domestic enterprises and the policy permitting foreign gold to enter the Chinese market has not been promulgated. Gold cannot flow in and out of China freely and the domestic gold market is thus separated from the international market. Statistics of the Shanghai Gold Exchange show that China is short of 50 to 60 tons of gold each year, and the shortage of gold has been increasing year by year. After the commercial banks are permitted to import and export gold, China can import gold resources to make the shortage of domestic resources, which is good for curbing the high gold price on the domestic market. Foreign gold traders are expected to enter the domestic gold exchange through domestic commercial banks. The Shanghai Gold Exchange stipulates that standard gold ingots of the enterprises with LBMA certification may be traded on the market.


GEOPOLITICAL NEWS:

Leaders of the United States, Britain and Spain will hold an emergency summit on Sunday in a last-gasp diplomatic effort to overcome opposition in the U.N. Security Council to a resolution paving the way for war on Iraq. President Bush will travel to Portugal`s Azores islands, about 900 miles west of the European mainland, to meet British Prime Minister Tony Blair and Spanish Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar in a "final pursuit" of a U.N. resolution on disarming Iraq, the White House said on Friday.

The United States is signaling that it may go to war on Iraq without U.N. backing as its hopes of winning over the Security Council faded on Friday. Russia, Germany and France all reiterated opposition on Friday to any invasion by about 250,000 U.S. and British troops massed in the Gulf region, saying U.N. weapons inspections were still the best route to peace with President Saddam Hussein.

Warplanes taking part in U.S.-British patrols over southern Iraq on Thursday attacked an Iraqi radar southwest of Baghdad, the U.S. military said. With more than 250,000 American and British troops in the Gulf poised for a possible U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, the U.S. military`s Central Command said the planes used precision-guided weapons to target a mobile radar system about 265 miles southwest of the Iraqi capital. In recent weeks, Western aircraft have stepped up attacks in the "no-fly zones" over southern and northern Iraq while extending the targets to include battlefield missiles and rockets that could hinder a ground invasion.

Israeli forces shot dead at least five Palestinian gunmen on Friday in a raid on their hideout in Jenin refugee camp in the West Bank, raising to 10 the number of militants killed in the past two days. The Palestinian Authority accused Israel of stepping up military action against the 2 1/2-year-old Palestinian uprising for an independent state as world attention focuses on a possible U.S. war on Iraq. Witnesses said Israeli tanks and helicopter gunships took part in the push into Jenin refugee camp, the scene of some of the fiercest fighting in a military sweep through the West Bank nearly a year ago after suicide bombings in Israel.


ECONOMIC NEWS:

The U.S. Labor Department reported the February producer price index rose 1.0 percent, compared to expectations for a rise of 0.6 percent, and a rise of 1.6 percent in January.
Excluding food and energy the February producer price index fell 0.5 percent, compared to a rise of 0.9 percent in January.

The U.S. trade deficit grew sharply in the fourth quarter of last year, pushing the gap for all of 2002 to a record $503.43 billion, the government said on Friday. The gap in the current account gap, the broadest measure of trade with foreign countries, expanded by 8.3 percent in the final three months of last year to reach a quarterly record of $136.85 billion, after narrowing a slight 1.1 percent in the third quarter, the Commerce Department said. The size of the fourth-quarter deficit nearly matched Wall Street forecasts. The deficit for the entire year grew 28 percent to a record $503.43 billion.

The University of Michigan`s preliminary March index of consumer sentiment fell for a third straight month to 75.0, its lowest since October 1992, from 79.9 in February, market sources told Reuters on Friday. Economists had forecast a slide to 77.6. The steady erosion of confidence is taking its toll, hurting crucial spending by consumers that drives two-thirds of the U.S. economy and is needed to fuel a robust recovery.


Comment: The price of gold gained slightly ahead of the weekend as leaders of the United States, Britain and Spain prepared to meet in the Azores to hold an emergency summit on Iraq on Sunday. The U.S. dollar gained against other currencies in spite of a record U.S. trade deficit. Equities were little changed in New York after yesterday’s bear market rally on Wall Street and today’s follow through in the Asian and European markets. It was noticed that the lower price of gold did spur some physical gold purchases in Asia. Today The People`s Bank of China announced that they will allow the import of physical gold to meet a growing demand. The concern now is the threat of inflation. In January the PPI rose 1.6% and last month rose 1%. The bulk of the rise in the PPI has been attributed to higher energy costs and those higher costs are beginning to show up in economic data. The CPI will soon reflect the higher costs of energy as well. The Federal Reserve continues to flood the market with dollars in a bid to “reflate” the economy. Gold usually performs very well during inflationary times as investors seek out tangible assets to perverse wealth. The current low in the price of gold creates another opportunity to “buy the dips” while adding to precious metals positions.


- Jon H. Warner-


E-Mail the current report to a friend or to yourself.
__________________________
Jon Warner is a professional geologist with nearly 24 years in exploration and project development in both mining and petroleum. Mr. Warner brings to the table an impressive industry contact list, thorough knowledge of the precious metals and energy markets as well as a practical understanding of gold`s role in the private investment portfolio. His strong knowledge in these fields has been demonstrated at the USAGOLD Discussion Forum where he posts on a regular basis as Black Blade.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



We invite you to stay tuned to the gold market through our DISCUSSION FORUM http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum
featuring round the clock gold news & commentary from the public.



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[ThaiGuru]

Eric Hommelberg, March 14, 2002

Also tired of watching your Gold shares being hammered?

How’s that possible you wonder, Gold shares should be moving in opposite direction of the Nasdaq, shouldn’t they ? But instead your Gold shares are dropping even faster as the World Financial Markets. Your blood pressure starts rising as fast as your Gold shares drop ! Especially after the S&P warning that Gold stocks are dangerous, especially after Barron’s killed Gold’s leading stock Royal Gold, why why why you constantly ask yourself. Did we make the wrong bet after all (rise of POG) and should we pay more attention to people such as Robert Prechter ? (Gold is going nowhere but down ?)

What can I say ? As a non financial expert I certainly can’t argue with so called financial Guru’s as Prechter, all I do is studying the markets and draw my own conclusions, share my views with others and learn from mistakes of the past.

In this essay I just want to share some results of analyzing the XAU performance vs the Nasdaq.

As I said before, many investors are getting frustrated by the fact hat their Gold shares are going down sharply together with the Nasdaq although they expect the opposite. It happened already several times the past 12 month.

I’m sure everyone remembers the 2002 July sell off in our precious Gold shares very well. They came down together with the Nasdaq.

I’m sure everyone remembers the 2002 late September sell off in our precious Gold shares very well. They came down together with the Nasdaq.

I’m absolutely sure that everyone will remember the 2003 February/March sell off in our precious Gold shares forever ! Also this time the Gold shares came down together with the Nasdaq.

So what about the argument that XAU should have an inverse correlation with Nasdaq ? Although the examples shown above implies a direct correlation between XAU/Nasdaq, the opposite is true.

Just look at the graph below:



As you can see XAU trend is up, Nasdaq trend is down ! Inverse correlation indeed. Period ! (Please hammer this into your Brain!)

Feel better now?

Although these graphs do tell not to worry, I still wasn’t satisfied about the unpredictable sharp sell offs in Gold stocks which happened already three times in the past 12 month. Analyzing the XAU/Nasdaq graphs showed some amazing similarities which I want to share with you.

I will summarize the conclusions first, then take look at the graphs shown below yourself.

- temporary Nasdaq bottoms occurs together with temporary XAU bottoms

- a sharp Nasdaq rally ignites a sharp XAU rally

- XAU rally equals or exceeds Nasdaq rally by several month

- Nasdaq melt down takes Gold shares with it. (last phase of bear-market rally cycle, massive sell-off, high volatility (VIX approaching 50),



So are we due for a sharp XAU rally which will last several month?

Although critics will argue that the latest Nasdaq bottom projected above doesn’t bounce from the base-support line (which would indicated a Nasdaq index of approx: 800), I don’t really care. First you should be aware that all other world financial markets (non US) did indeed made new bottoms and that we’re witnessing a sharp reversal right now. Besides that the volatility index which reached a level of 41 on March 12 doesn’t rule out a sharp rally either.

Although the consensus is that a rally most likely will occur at VIX levels in the 45 - 55 range, this time investors seems to be nervous not to miss the next Gulf War rally based on Gulf War I memories.

On March 13 Nasdaq rose 4.8% , let’s assume this marks the start of a new bear-market rally. We should expect then a sharp reversal of the XAU as well.

Downward risk is extremely low:

XAU index approaches a stone-wall resistance at the low 60’s.

POG approaches stone-wall resistance at low $330.

So far, Gold stocks reacted as expected. The sharp Nasdaq reversal

on March13 (+4,8%), ignited the XAU as well. Gold stocks rose despite the $11 drop in POG.

Enjoy the ride!



Comments are welcome at:

[e-mail]

Best regards,

Eric Hommelberg

Gold Mining Guide

http://www.goldminingguide.com

[ThaiGuru]

March 14 – Gold $336 up 60 cents – Silver $4.53 unchanged

The Gold Shares Dance Their Way Uptown

"It should be elementary that if gold has no importance for the individual, it has little monetary importance to governments, and can be dismissed in fiscal calculations. Gold reserves in the central banks would be about as useful as a warehouse of pork in Saudi Arabia. It is evident, however, that despite the general prohibitions on the ownership and trade in gold, and the protestations of theorists, gold remains of immense importance to individuals, and so long as it does it will be in short supply."

"The reason for this importance is not hard to discover: it lies in the corruptibility of governments and the uncertainty of peace. Until government administrators can so identify the interests of government with those of the people and refrain from defrauding the masses through the device of currency depreciation for the sake of remaining in office, the wiser ones will prefer to keep as much of their wealth in the most stable and marketable forms possible -- forms which only the precious metals provide."
- Elgin Groseclose

Up and down price action is what we wanted and that is just what we got. Gold was pummeled all the way down to $330 during the Asian trading hours, rallied up to $338 during the Comex session, was smashed down $2 on the day, and then rallied to close modestly higher. This is good news, as the action was much more buoyant than the Gold Cartel`s sledgehammer treatment of gold yesterday. That tells us that physical market buyers are ready and willing to take them on.

Comex open interest only dropped 1118 contracts on the big price collapse and now stands at 190,488 contracts. That tells us that a good number of specs came in on the short side, which can only be considered as constructive at these price levels.

Gold and silver rarely go right back up after being trashed, so today’s small rise is just fine.

What follows is a bit of a review, but it might be helpful after the gold price annihilation of this week:

It is most important to comprehend that few in the investment world understand what the gold market is all about. "Clueless" is the word I often use to describe the situation. Gold broke out above $330, ran up to $388 and came right back down again. From Greenspan on, the rationale for the run-up was the pending Iraq war. Then, what is the rationale for the collapse? The war is still pending as far as I know.

Gold is about a market manipulated by a Gold Cartel.

That cabal is gradually falling apart because they are running out of ammo to continue their scam. That is occurring because the physical market is so strong it is eating into their available physical gold supply. It is also occurring because The Gold Cartel has gone through so much central bank gold. After years of lending/swapping it out to hold down the price of gold, only half of it is left. In addition, the fundamentals could not be more bullish:

*The low interest rates in the US (and around the world) that are going to go even lower. Why not have some money invested in gold, which has been trending higher?

* We have negative real interest rates in the US, which is historically very gold bullish. The PPI in the US has averaged 1.3% over the past two months. Annualized that is 12.6% inflation from the producers. The Fed Funds rate is 1.25%. Prices are also going up in all the key consumer areas like healthcare costs, insurance, etc. At the same time, the economy is so lousy that the Fed dare not raise rates.

*Commodity prices have been moving up for some time now.

*The dollar is in sad shape and headed lower. Our trade and current account deficits are enormous.

*The reputation of the US, the main rigger of the gold price and strong dollar advocate, is going downhill.

*World equity markets are on VERY shaky ground. Financial crises are on the verge of erupting in various nations.

*Gold demand is around 1500 tonnes greater than gold mine/scrap supply per year.

*The bullion banks are short some 16,000 tonnes of gold they owe to central banks as a result of loan/swap operations. A short squeeze of epic proportions could kick in at any time.

The price of gold is heading for $800/$1,000 per ounce. Tensions resulting from an Iraq war will only enhance those prospects. But, regardless if there is a war or not, that is where the gold price is going in the coming years.

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

Friday March 14, 2003

India is closed today, which probably deprived gold’s friends of some badly needed positive news in terms of premiums and India’s appetite for bullion at these prices. HSBC does note, however, that:

"Physical demand that has been conspicuous by its absence for the greater part of 2003 to date has re-emerged. HSBC traders report good indications of interest from Turkey and India – the first significant volumes since November last year."

TOCOM came under relentless selling pressure this morning, said by some observers to emanate in part from Australia, as it appears was also the case yesterday.

This is a curious thing to hear, as one might have thought that buying back hedges was more the agenda of the Australian miners – but of course the possession by an Australian bullion desk of a sell order does not guarantee the ultimate seller is Australian. On volume equal to 66,277 Comex contracts (21% up from Thursday) the active contract fell 36 yen, $US gold was down $1.65 from the NY close, and open interest fell a substantial 4,4756 Comex equivalent. Given the unswerving character of the selling it is somewhat surprising that TOCOM was not down the limit. (NY yesterday traded 74,721 lots; open interest fell only 1,118 lots. Given the loudly proclaimed long liquidation and the size of yesterday’s drop, one might have expected a larger open interest contraction. The answer probably is that there was a considerable amount of shorting offsetting long liquidation. NY open interest is 45% larger than TOCOM’s by weight.

MarketVane’s Bullish Consensus fell an almost unprecedented 7 points yesterday to 57%, a level not seen since last August 22. The steadiness of gold shares was remarkable: causing Richard Russell to muse:

"Gold averages not confirming plunging gold; does this mean the worst is over for gold and gold shares? I feel 50/50 on this…"

JB

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The DOW did respond Mike, but not much else did. That’s how weak the US stock market really is.

Not one of the three rumors that propped up the Dow and hurt gold the past week turned out to be true. The US stock market has to be on the shakiest of ground if the PPT must resort to those kinds of desperado tactics.

Speaking of desperado tactics: all of a sudden Bush and Blair are speaking out about solving the Israeli/Palestinian problem and are going to the Azores for an urgent summit. The new drill is humiliating. Nothing is going as planned for the US regarding Iraq because we have been disingenuous about our motives for going in there in the first place and most of the rest of the world knows it. Some summit. It comes across like a war groupie get-together. Pretty sad, the desperation shows loud and clear. It won’t help the stability of the world’s financial markets in the weeks to come.

As has been the case for weeks, the economic news worsens again:

Washington, March 14 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. wholesale prices rose in February for a second straight month, led by the biggest surge in energy costs since the buildup to the Gulf War in 1990, a Labor Department report said. Prices excluding energy and food unexpectedly fell for a third month in four.

The producer price index, a gauge of prices paid to factories, farmers and other producers, rose 1 percent last month after gaining 1.6 percent in January. Excluding food and energy, the so-called core index fell 0.5 percent as automobile, computer and apparel prices plunged. –END-

3/14 (Reuters) - Looming war in Iraq and rising layoffs battered U.S. consumer sentiment to its lowest level in more than a decade in March as widespread gloom about the economic outlook shows few signs of letting up any time soon.

The University of Michigan`s preliminary March index of consumer sentiment fell for a third straight month to 75.0, its lowest since October 1992, from 79.9 in February, market sources told Reuters on Friday. Economists had forecast a slide to 77.6.

–END-

Montevideo, March 14 (Bloomberg) -- Uruguay`s benchmark bond had its biggest decline in six weeks on investors` concerns the government will default on its debt by offering bondholders lower- value securities in a planned swap to cut financing costs.

Uruguay`s 7.625 percent bond due in 2012 fell 3.2 cents on the dollar to 49, boosting the yield to 20.1 percent at 1:33 p.m., according to J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. prices. The yield has climbed from 7.8 percent at the start of last year.

The government, which has $6.5 billion of bonds outstanding, said earlier this week it will give investors the option to exchange holdings for new securities without specifying terms of the swap. Some analysts said the government may have little choice but to force bondholders to accept losses on their holdings.

``The concept of this swap raises lots of risks,`` said Siobhan Manning, an emerging market debt strategist at Caboto IntescaBci SpA, Italy`s largest bank. ``It may well start as voluntary but could spiral into a distressed one.`` –END-

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

Kaufe Gold, und ein Flugticket in die Schweiz!

Wenn die bekannte englische Tageszeitung sowas als Ueberschrift eines Artikels schreibt, muss ja was dran sein an Gold, auch wenn sie mit Ihrem Titel nur einen Denkanstoss vermitteln wollte!

Gruss

ThaiGuru



http://www.money.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml%3B$session…

Buy gold and a ticket to Switzerland

(Filed: 15/03/2003)

The troop trains are rolling, share prices are crumbling, the market is down by one half from its peak, and we need to work out where we are on the map. Have we been here before?

Perhaps we are back in Vienna in 1914, and the imperial power`s response to a terrorist outrage has been an ultimatum, backed by the threat of pre-emptive war.

In that case the only investments worth having are GOLD and a railway ticket to Switzerland. Absit omen.

Or perhaps we have slipped back a dozen years, to the Gulf War Mark I fought by George Bush Mark I, who chose to quit when he was ahead. There followed an era of cheap oil and of cuts in defence budgets - the peace dividend, as it was called.

These were years of rising prosperity and of soaring share prices, credited to the wonders of the new economy, though I dare say that oil and peace had as much to do with it.

Now the dividend is hopelessly uncovered and oil is expensive again. If a Mark II war proved to be swift and successful, no doubt share prices would bounce with relief - they have bounced, at intervals, all the way down from their peak - but it would be simplistic to hope that a re-run of the 1990s would follow.

Too much of the debris of that decade and its excesses still has to be tidied away, and in the financial infrastructure, signs of strain are evident.

Of the world`s four biggest economies, Germany and Japan are in trouble, and the Americans will have to re-learn the habit of saving.

Ours is the fourth - though if the pound sinks much further the French will move past us - and for years we have been happy to borrow and spend. We, too, have some re-education to face.

[ThaiGuru]

Wenn die russische Tageszeitung Pravda ihren Lesern empfielt, sie sollen doch Gold Kaufen, muss ja etwas dran sein, gerade weil die Pravda, ein Sprachrohr der russischen Regierung ist.!







http://english.pravda.ru/economics/2003/03/12/44314.html

Converting Dollars to Gold



Russian people keep losing their faith in US dollar

It deems that the decade of Russian people’s whole-hearted confidence in US dollar is coming to its end. Years of reforms made people of Russia think that everything might crush, devaluate, turn to dust in a blink of an eye, although packs of green money would remain totally secure. However, an American dollar stumbled on the way of its constant growth. It seems that this will cost it a lot.

However, if a US dollar is not the most reliable way for people to save their money, Russians will have to deal with an inevitable question – what can serve as a substitute? Is it real estate or land, or cars? However, only a few people in Russia can convert their money the same way as Western common people do, taking into consideration the fact that practically every Russian person has a certain quantity of dollars. In this case Russians pay their attention to everlasting values.

Gold has always been the absolute universal equivalent on account of its chemical peculiarities. In addition to that, gold is the metal that is used in the jewelry industry. The economic boom of Western countries and the targeted policy of American and European banks used to push gold into the background. A dollar became much more important than gold. However, gold managed to keep its position anyway. As it seems, the present time is just the right moment for increasing the role of gold as the universal equivalent.

As a rule, the interest to gold as a way to save money grows little by little. However, the situation changes completely during a crisis or an economic disaster. Bank specialists say that the uneven growth of demand on gold occurs for the third time in Russia. The first time it happened after the crisis of 1998, then - in September of 2001. The third time takes place at present moment. Gold gets more expensive today. The majority of Russian experts think that the reason of such a sudden increase of demand on this precious metal is the same as it is with the growth of the euro rate.

The subconscious distrust in dollar is finally finished with its quantity, turning to quality. Yet, according to experts’ estimates, it is the rise of prices on gold, which makes a common consumer react. Common people think like this: if it becomes more expensive, this means that a lot of people need it, so why not joining them? On the other hand, it stands the reason that it is a lot better to buy something when prices go down, not up. If something becomes more and more expensive, it is the best time to start selling it.

Any Russian person can come to a bank and buy some gold there. Banks sell gold in the shape of bars and coins. It is the Russian Central Bank that produces gold coins. There are two kinds of those coins: investment and collectible coins.

Investment coins are not taxed with value-added tax at their purchase, which makes them rather attractive to buyers.

It is possible to acquire them in banks, paying the price of metal, as well as the commission fee of up to five percent. If prices go up, one may sell those coins. Sometimes gold prices might experience the fluctuation of ten or fifteen percent within a weekend. However, gold prices might fall and grow rather considerably at times. Gold prices have been growing since 2001 – from $250 to $375 per troy ounce. Advanced “investors” had a good opportunity to gain a lot of profit with the help of that fluctuation. On the other hand, those people, who purchased some gold at the price of $370 per ounce, were deprived of any profit at the moment. They are forced to hold their investments at the moment, hoping that gold might get more expensive in the future.

However, if someone does not like the idea of being worried over exchange fluctuations, it would be better to choose collectible gold coins. Unfortunately, they are taxed with value added tax, although their price grows with time, covering taxation costs. Yet, one should be a good specialists of collectible gold coins. It is possible to buy the goods of low liquidity, which will inevitably cause a lot of troubles in the future. Only two or three banks work with collectible coins. Selling those coins to onsellers or numismatists can be rather risky.

Russian Federation Central Bank specialists say that the most popular series of collectible gold coins is Zodiac Signs. The Central Bank is going to increase the output of those coins next year. In addition to that, coins are expected to become 2.5 times larger (they are rather small at the moment). One gold coin of Zodiac Signs series costs 1300 rubles, which is equal to the sum of $40. To crown it all, the Central Bank has something unique to offer as well. There is a unique gold coin, for example, which weighs one kilogram. The coin was issued to commemorate the 300th anniversary of St.Petersburg.

"If Russian people do not believe in the all-mighty dollar anymore, if it is too late to buy euros, it is possible to buy some gold. This would be a nice, even a beautiful thing to do. Furthermore, it is possible to convert gold in rubles easily."

More importantly, every sold gold coin will help the Central Bank to increase the Russian gold reserve, which has been hidden by Russian authorities in American and European banks right in the middle of another coming global economic crisis.

Kira Poznakhirko
PRAVDA.Ru

Translated by Dmitry Sudakov

[ThaiGuru]

Auch in diesem Artikel vom 14.3.03 befasst sich die Pravda mit Gold und Dollar!

Absolut lesenswert, auch wenn es dann evtl. auch nicht so eintreten sollte.

Einen solchen Beitrag zu einer evtl. Entwicklung des Dollar Wechelkurses, Plänen der FED, und der USA Regierung, zu einer evtl. Wiedereinführung einer neuen Art von Golddeckung beim Dollar, oder erst Recht nicht Gedanken zu einer evtl. "2 Tier" Wechselpolitik beim US Dollar, oder einer evtl. neuerlichen Beschlagnahmung von Gold, sucht man in der westlichen Mainstream Presse wohl absolut vergeblich. Zumindest einmal bis heute.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

Gold strong buy!!







http://english.pravda.ru/war/2003/03/14/44429.html

2003-03-14

Dollar to Step Down Ahead of Saddam

Numerous leaks of information and analysis of activities of the US authority are a sufficient basis to forecast further development of the US economic policy. This estimate is extremely important as it will further determine future situation in the world in many respects.

After “cleansing” in George W. Bush’s economy team caused, as the American press reports, by the reluctance of Paul O’Neil and Larry Lindsey “to pay attention to demands of the US economic elite”, it became evident that top-priority principle of American economy authority is to preserve the Wall Street investment banks. From the point of view of these banks, step-by-step, which means slow, dollar devaluation is the key danger.

If it happens, it is highly likely that holders of futures contracts may prefer other currencies to dollar, which in its turn will seriously imperil position of the investment banks as monopoly operators on the market and the whole of US system for control over the world economy based on these markets.

High oil price that exceeds the traditional “war premium” is an indirect indication of initiation of this process. To all appearances, the problem is that sellers have already implicitly placed the dollar devaluation into the oil price; it means that sellers rely not upon dollar but upon some more stable values in their calculations. Is it possible to avoid further dollar devaluation?

The latest statistics on the rate of the foreign trade balance (13% in November and 10% in December 2002, at the time when dollar was on the decline) and Federal Reserve Chairman Alen Greenspan’s report on a catastrophic condition of the budget delivered in the US Congress (he said that the process must be carried out as soon as possible) demonstrate it is impossible to avoid the scenario.

This is the only way to prevent financial markets from giving up the dollar. At that, on results of this devaluation the US authorities plan to demonstrate the whole of the world that dollar won’t drop any further!

Alen Greenspan partially gave an answer to the question what can be done with the economic situation in his report in December.

Arguments on “the gold standard” show that dollar may be once again made dependent upon gold, like in the time of Bretton-Woods. However, a serious problem arises in this connection. The gold supply in the world, especially in the USA is not enough to make dollar dependent upon gold effectively. Even grave devaluation carried out simultaneously with increase in gold price won’t solve the problem. In this situation, the USA has two mechanisms that would guarantee a necessary result.

The first mechanism is a confiscation reform, similar to that one carried out by Franklin Roosevelt in the 1930s. Fixation of dollar to gold will allow the US Government to make private individuals exchange gold they own for dollars at a fixed rate determined especially for this purpose.

Another mechanism is a currency reform. Cash dollars held by US residents will be accepted on territories controlled by America without any limits, but non-residents may have problems in this situation. It is highly likely that bank transfers to US resident banks and exchange of dollar notes may be restricted for non-residents.

This may be explained by the necessity to hold a special check-up in the network of the “anti-terrorist campaign.” This operation (and new, so-called “pink dollars” are already printed) will not only cut off a considerable part of cash dollars but will also give the USA a powerful instrument of influence upon all countries of the world.

However, this is not enough. It is also important to prevent processes that objectively may bring dollar down after it is made dependent on gold.

US’s monetary authorities think that there is only one thing menacing this scenario; it is collapse of the market of mortgages on real property.

And this market is tense enough now. And with an interval of just few days, Alen Greenspan says realty prices will reduce, and then chairman of the Federal Reserve System department in St.Louis William Poole delivers a panic speech saying that the market may collapse within the nearest days. Such conduct of the top officials can be explained one way only:

"They think that the market must be brought down before the described scenario starts, which by the way will give a formal reason for dollar devaluation."

There is hardly an alternative to the sad scenario: inevitable dollar collapse will seriously compromise it in the world, and the only way to rehabilitate it is to make dollar dependent upon gold.

But the USA is experiencing one more problem – decline of the economy which may bring the above mentioned scenario to nothing. It’s interesting to mention in this situation that opinion and positions of the US authority don’t completely mirror the actual economic processes.

From the point of view of the US leadership, the USA is at the stage of a protracted recession. Monetary methods of economic stimulation (reduction of the rate) brought no results, and something more must be done. The policy carried out by Ronald Reagan in the mid-1980s was picked out as an example. In fact, Greenspan’s criticism of Bush’s budgetary policy is connected with Reagan’s experience. The matter is that at that period economy was stimulated from budgetary finance, which further resulted in a sudden rise of the public debt, extremely high profitability of government bonds (it reached 17% per year), as a result, the Federal Reserve System rate was very high. In the end, dollar seriously reduced by 40%.

But in the middle of the 1980s there was no alternative to dollar, and the fact of the Soviet Union’s existence made other western countries support American economy actively. New advisors to George W. Bush (unlike his previous ones) evidently think that dollar devaluation will provide a considerable supply for further increase of the US public debt; they think that America’s victory in the Iraqi war will make old and prospective allies behave in a decent manner. This is the basic difference from the situation the country experience in the 1980s.

As we’ve mentioned, usage of Reagan’s economic model will inevitably entail dollar devaluation. According to the above mentioned reasons, it is impossible to delay dollar devaluation any longer, and it would be quite natural to unite macroeconomic dollar collapse resulting in normalization of the balance of payment and the foreign trade balance and devaluation connected with a sudden deficit of the budget. So, the events may develop in accordance with the following scenario:

"First, a war begins in Iraq with an aggressive PR backing; then, budgetary spending will be increased not less aggressively, and finally, early in autumn (and probably even earlier) dollar devaluation may be carried out and the US currency will be made dependent upon gold."

The scheme wonderfully correlates with the already announced terms of the “pink dollars” introduction.

Why is the plan criticized at all? First of all, it is obvious that gold reserve will be quite enough. Second, realization of the plan is possible if everything goes OK in Iraq, which is open to question by the way. Third, it is not ruled out that many countries, most of all those influential with considerable dollar reserves, will strongly object to the plan. These are China, Japan, France and Germany. It is not for sure that these countries will object at all, it is just an assumption; however, Bush’s team stakes on assurance and aggressiveness.

And here finally comes the last argument which is probably not quite understood (and probably not understood at all) in Washington.
All particular variants of the above mentioned economic policy have been certainly verified on the US economic models employed by different expert and scientific institutions of America. To all appearances, obtained results are contradictory which may cause conflicts in the ruling elite. But the models have one thing in common: they are all macroeconomic and based upon the invariance of the sectoral structure of the US economy. It is a natural condition, as the past years in the USA were marked with total dictate of liberal monetary principles in the economy.

But models based on the input-output balance are highly likely to bring quite a different result. Russian economists have already mentioned several times that structural disproportions in the US economy will entail immediate consequences as soon as rates on the US financial markets go up, and this is to happen for sure if the policy declared by George W. Bush is realized. At present, under conditions of a negative rate (and consequently, very low bank interest) branches of new economy may prolong and refinance their debts. When the rates increase, the process of structural defects improving will go on a large scale. As it was mentioned, the share of such nonviable enterprises and companies makes up about 20% GDP, and they will disappear right at the period when dollar dependent upon gold will, as the Bush administration plans, become stabilized.

After this large-scale collapse dollar devaluation will be not the only problem to be solved; it will also cause breakup of the international futures markets and entail more problems. And there are no guarantees that the Bush administration is ready for these very consequences of its policy.

The above mentioned situation looks very pessimistic, but this is almost a sure result of the actions already committed by the US administration, this is obvious from leaks of information and reports delivered by representatives of the Bush administration.

Mikhail Khazin

Translated by Maria Gousseva

[Thoemsi]

In diesem Zusammenhang auch das hier mal Durchlesen!

http://www.staatsbriefe.de/1994/2003/kriegsgruende1.htm

[ThaiGuru]

http://209.217.49.168/vnews.php?nid=191

How to Return to the Gold Standard

by Bettina Bien Greaves

There is no reason, technically or economically, why the world today, even with its countless wide-ranging and complex commercial transactions, could not return to the gold standard and operate with gold money. The major obstacle is ideological.

Many people believe that it would be impossible to return to the gold standard--ever! There are just too many people in the world, they say, and the economy is too complex. Many others look on a return to the gold standard as an almost magical solution to today`s major problems--big government, the welfare state, and inflation. What is the truth of the matter?

Certainly if the United States went on a gold standard, it would have to carry out many reforms. The federal government would really have to stop inflating, balance its budget, and abandon welfare state programs. Most voters are not ready for such reforms. And politicians, pressured by voters and special interest groups for favors, hesitate to pass them. Thus the major stumbling block to monetary reform is ideological. If this basic obstacle could be overcome, however, a return to gold money would become a realistic possibility.

weiter....
http://209.217.49.168/vnews.php?nid=191

[ThaiGuru]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/2849207.stm

Japan threatens sanctions

Japan has threatened to impose economic sanctions on North Korea if it tests a ballistic missile, according to government officials quoted by Japanese media.

Japan has stepped up patrols near North Korea

North Korea has tested two short range missiles in recent weeks, prompting speculation it is preparing to launch a longer-range version similar to one it fired over Japan in 1998.

Japanese government sources said possible sanctions would include a halt to cash transfers and exports to the North, according to the Kyodo news agency and leading newspapers.

Japan`s exports to North Korea totalled about $135m in 1999, while cash transfers from Japan`s sizeable Korean community are also thought to be significant.

The sanctions threat came a day after the United States resumed reconnaissance flights near North Korea, as the stand-off over the secretive state`s nuclear programme showed no signs of abating.



Map shows range of Taepodong 1 missile, flown over Japan in 1998. Range 1,500-2,000 km, payload: 1,000 kg
Evidence that North Korea preparing flight test of Taepodong 2. Range up to 8,000 km (could reach western US)
Other missiles: Scud-B: Range 300 km, payload 1,000 kg
Scud-C: Range 500 km, payload 7600-800 kg
Scud-D (Nodong): Range 1,000-1,300 km, payload: 700-1,000 kg

Japanese newspapers have reported that Pyongyang might be preparing to test-fire its Rodong ballistic missile, which has a range long enough to reach almost anywhere in Japan.

The Japanese Government played down the reports, saying it had "no specific information" on a possible launch.

But Japan`s defence agency has confirmed that a surveillance warship has been sent closer to the Korean Peninsula, in what was described as "regular patrol activities".

The US Air Force has also resumed reconnaissance flights in international airspace off North Korea, 11 days after a US plane was intercepted by North Korean fighters jets.

North Korea has maintained a self-imposed moratorium on ballistic missile tests since 1999. But in January it threatened to lift the ban, as fears over its nuclear ambitions mounted.

Nuclear warning

Those fears were given fresh impetus on Wednesday, when Washington warned that North Korea`s nuclear programme may be much more advanced than previously thought. Assistant Secretary of State James Kelly said that Pyongyang`s uranium enrichment programme could be only months away from producing weapons-grade material. North Korea has already re-started its Yongbyon nuclear reactor, which could soon be reprocessing nuclear fuel into plutonium - another way of making nuclear bombs.

The BBC`s State Department correspondent Jon Leyne says experts believe the North could soon have a production line able to make up to a bomb a month. Mr Kelly confronted the North Koreans over the existence of a nuclear programme last October, triggering the latest crisis. He admitted that most of Washington`s allies in Asia were pressing for the US to acquiesce to Pyongyang`s demands for direct talks with the North. But Washington is sticking to its policy of pushing for multilateral talks, saying North Korea`s nuclear ambitions concern the rest of the world, not just the US.

South Korean President Roh Moo-Hyun has again called for "urgent" steps to resolve the nuclear crisis. Mr Roh said on Thursday that resolving the standoff was his top priority, as another war on the Korean peninsula would reduce South Korea`s prosperity to ashes in a moment.

[ThaiGuru]

Diese Story ist das genaue Gegenteil von dem was die die bereits jetzt schon arg strapazierten Fluggesellschaften brauchen, um aus ihrem wirtschaftlichen Schlammasel wieder herauszukommen.

Gruss

ThaiGuru



http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/2854281.stm

Sunday, 16 March, 2003, 12:38 GMT

Global alert over mystery virus

Global health authorities are struggling to contain a mystery virus which has affected more than 150 people in a number of countries, killing at least nine.

Travellers are taking precautions after a WHO travel alert

On Sunday, the World Health Organisation said two deaths had been reported in Canada - thought to be a mother and child returning from Hong Kong.

Health officials have located seven people infected by the family but are still searching frantically for anyone else who may have come into contact with them.

Other cases have been reported in Vietnam - where a nurse died on Sunday and where at least 40 other medical workers are infected - and Germany, and there are unconfirmed reports of stricken patients in Indonesia and the Philippines.

"Until we can get a grip on it, I don`t see how it will slow down," WHO spokesman Dick Thompson told the Associated Press news agency.

"People are not responding to antibiotics or antivirals. It`s a highly contagious disease and it`s moving around by jet. It`s bad."

Travel advisory

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) causes victims to suffer from symptoms such as coughing, high fever and shortness of breath, and has an incubation period of two to seven days.

The flu is thought to be highly contagious

The outbreak is thought to have begun in the Vietnamese capital Hanoi last month after a US businessman travelling from Shanghai infected hospital workers in Hong Kong before himself succumbing to the disease.

On Saturday, the WHO took the rare step of issuing an emergency travel advisory amid fears that a mystery virus may be spreading.

The WHO has so far not advised travellers to avoid any particular destination, but has warned them to watch out for symptoms, including a high fever, difficulty in breathing, and coughing.

WHO experts are also working on isolating the cause of the disease, however the organisation`s executive director of communicable diseases, David Heyman, told the BBC said that work was hampered by ignorance about the illness.

"We don`t know what to use with this disease because we don`t know what`s causing it," he said.

"There is no specific antibiotic or anti-viral drug that we can yet recommend."

Also on Saturday a doctor from Singapore was taken off an airplane on Saturday and quarantined in a Frankfurt hospital, German health authorities said.

Two people travelling with him on the flight from New York to Singapore were also put in quarantine.

China link

Twenty cases have now been reported in Singapore, while in Hong Kong 49 people - including 42 medical workers - are thought to have the virus and Taipei authorities have reported three cases, Reuters news agency reported.

No figures are available yet from China. The WHO said the flu-like symptoms of the virus were similar to those of a sickness in the southern province of Guangdong last month which infected 305 people, killing five of them.

Singapore and Taiwan have warned their citizens against travelling to the worst affected places - Hong Kong, China and Vietnam.

The Thai authorities have also imposed strict procedures to try to guard against the illness, instructing airlines to report immediately if any passengers display symptoms.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.swissinfo.org/sde/swissinfo.html?siteSect=143&sid…

Sonntag 16.03.2003

Irakische Führung versetzt Land in Kriegszustand

BAGDAD - Angesichts eines drohenden Militärschlags der USA hat die irakische Führung das Land in den Kriegszustand versetzt und in vier Militärbezirke aufgeteilt.

Wie die amtliche Nachrichtenagentur INA meldete, ernannte der Revolutionäre Kommandorat vier Bezirkskommandanten und unterstellte sie dem Oberbefehl Saddams. Zu den Kommandanten gehört auch Saddams jüngerer Sohn Kusai. Diesem seien der Bezirk Bagdad und andere Gebiete in Zentral-Irak unterstellt.

Kusai ist der Befehlshaber der Eltitetruppe Republikanische Garde. Mit Bagdad und auch der Stadt Tikrit unterstehen ihm zwei Städte, die als Machtbasis der Regierung gelten.

Die Massnahmen dienten dazu, eine ausländische Aggression abzuwehren, meldete INA. Die USA haben erklärt, notfalls auch ohne UNO-Mandat gegen Irak Krieg zu führen, um die Abrüstung des Landes zu erzwingen. 160805 mar


SDA-ATS

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.wams.de/data/2003/03/16/53199.html

Irak-Krieg droht Europa in Rezession zu stürzen

EU-Geheimpapier: Rohölpreis würde zeitweise bis auf 70 Dollar je Barrel ansteigen. Stabilitätspakt kann ausgesetzt werden. Krieg im Irak wäre in jedem Fall ein „ungewöhnliches Ereignis"

Ein startendes Kampfflugzeug bei Nacht auf dem US-amerikanischen Flugzeugträger USS Harry S. TrumanFoto: AP

Brüssel - Der drohende Krieg im Irak kann dramatische Konsequenzen für Europas Wirtschaftsentwicklung haben. In einem Geheimpapier der EU-Kommission in Brüssel, das WELT am SONNTAG vorliegt, kommen die Experten zu dem Schluss, dass „ein Krieg im Irak die Weltwirtschaft, vor allem die europäische Wirtschaft, in eine Rezession stürzen" könne.

In der Analyse aus dem EU-Währungskommissariat von Pedro Solbes rechnen die Experten vier Szenarien durch. In „Szenario 4" wird nicht nur von einem Anstieg der Ölpreise auf zeitweise bis zu 70 Dollar/Barrel ausgegangen, sondern auch eine starke Zurückhaltung von Verbrauchern und Unternehmensinvestitionen erwartet. Dramatisch seien auch die Auswirkungen auf internationale Kapitalströme und den Tourismus. Auch die Börsenkurse würden dann weiter unter Druck geraten. Zudem sei mit größerer Volatilität beim Euro-Dollar-Kurs zu rechnen.

In diesem Szenario für den schlimmsten Fall rechnet die Kommission damit, dass Europas Wirtschaft im Jahr 2003 um 1,3 bis 1,4 Prozentpunkte weniger wachsen wird als bislang erwartet. Damit würde die Wirtschaft schrumpfen, denn für den Euroraum wird nach der vergangene Woche revidierten Prognose des Kieler Instituts für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) derzeit nur noch ein Wachstum von ein Prozent erwartet.

Für die Finanzpolitik in der Eurozone und auch für den Stabilitätspakt könne dies nach Ansicht von Solbes` Experten bedeuten, dass die Drei-Prozent-Regel beim Haushaltsdefizit vorübergehend außer Kraft gesetzt würde. Eine Ausnahmeregelung des Stabilitätspaktes sehe dies für den Fall eines „ungewöhnlichen Ereignisses" vor, so das Papier. Nach Auffassung der Kommission wäre ein Krieg im Irak mit den oben beschriebenen Folgen in jedem Fall ein „ungewöhnliches Ereignis".

Die Haushaltssünder in der EU, allen voran Deutschland, Frankreich und auch Portugal, müssten in diesem Fall nicht mit einem blauen Brief aus Brüssel und milliardenschweren Geldbußen rechnen. Bundeskanzler Gerhard Schröder hatte sich zuletzt in seiner Regierungserklärung vom Freitag für eine nicht allzu starre Auslegung des Stabilitätspakts ausgesprochen. In Brüssel heißt es, dass für das vorübergehende Aussetzen des Maastricht-Vertrages und der darin enthaltenen Defizit-Hürde ein Beschluss des EU-Finanzministerrates ausreichen würde. mdl

Artikel erschienen am 16. Mär 2003

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.reuters.de/news_article.jhtml;jsessionid=CTFKDFRG…

Auswärtiges Amt ruft Deutsche zum Verlassen Iraks auf

16 March 2003 14:47 CEST

Berlin (Reuters) - Das Auswärtige Amt hat die in Irak lebenden Deutschen zur Ausreise aufgefordert. Bundeskanzler Gerhard Schröder (SPD) hatte zuvor Zweifel geäußert, dass ein Krieg noch verhindert werden könne.



"Deutsche im Irak werden umgehend zur Ausreise aufgefordert", heißt es in der am Wochenende verschärften Reisewarnung des Ministeriums. Eine Sprecherin sagte am Sonntag, die Botschaft solle vorübergehend geschlossen werden, sobald die Ausreise der Deutschen aus Irak abgeschlossen sei. Im Land hielten sich derzeit weniger als 40 Deutsche auf, mit denen die Botschaft im Kontakt sei. Denen, die dies wünschten, helfe die Botschaft bei der Ausreise. Einem Zeitungsbericht zufolge erwartet die Bundesregierung Anfang dieser Woche eine Entscheidung der USA zum Beginn eines Irak-Kriegs. Weichenstellungen dafür wurden von einem Gipfel der USA, Großbritanniens und Spaniens am Sonntag erwartet.

Zehntausende Menschen protestierten in mehreren deutschen Städten mit Menschenketten, Kundgebungen und einer Sitzblockade friedlich gegen einen drohenden Krieg. Allein in Berlin bildeten rund 100.000 Menschen am Samstagabend eine 35 Kilometer lange Lichterkette quer durch die Hauptstadt.

DEUTSCHE BOTSCHAFT IN IRAK WIRD VORÜBERGEHEND GESCHLOSSEN

Das Ministerium fordert die Deutschen bereits seit fünf Wochen auf, Vorbereitungen für ihre Ausreise zu treffen. Einen konkreten Grund, warum die Ausreiseaufforderung zu diesem Zeitpunkt erging, nannte die Sprecherin nicht und verwies auf die laufende Aktualisierung der Reisehinweise des Ministeriums. Sie betonte zugleich, die Bemühungen der Bundesregierung um eine friedliche Lösung der Irak-Krise blieben von der Aufforderung unberührt.

Die Regierungschefs der USA, Großbritanniens und Spaniens, George W. Bush, Tony Blair und Jose Maria Aznar wollten sich am Nachmittag auf den Azoren zu Beratungen über den Irak-Konflikt treffen. Da alle drei Länder eine schnelle Entscheidung über einen Irak-Krieg fordern, werden von dem Treffen Hinweise auf das weitere Vorgehen erwartet.

Schröder hatte am Wochenende in mehreren Interviews Zweifel geäußert, ob sich ein Krieg noch verhindern lasse. Frankreich, Deutschland und Russland haben für Anfang der Woche ein Treffen des Sicherheitsrats der Vereinten Nationen (UNO) vorgeschlagen, bei dem weitere Beschlüsse zur friedlichen Lösung der Krise vereinbart werden sollten.

Auswärtiges Amt und Kanzleramt erwarten einem Bericht der "Stuttgarter Nachrichten" zufolge, dass Bush zu Wochenbeginn Irak eine letzte Frist von 72 Stunden setzen werde. Er werde in einer Rede die UNO-Mitarbeiter auffordern, Irak zu verlassen. Die Bundesregierung wollte den Bericht nicht bestätigen.

BERICHTE ÜBER DEUTSCHE BEREITSCHAFT ZU WIEDERAUFBAU IRAKS

Unterdessen mehrten sich Anzeichen, dass die Bundesregierung zu einem Engagment beim Wiederaufbau Iraks nach einem Krieg bereit ist. "Der Spiegel" berichtete, intern sei von einem Hilfsprogramm der Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau die Rede und vom Einsatz von bis zu 1000 deutschen Soldaten für eine Friedenstruppe. Wenn die UNO um solche Hilfe bitte, könne sich die Regierung schwerlich entziehen, zitierte das Magazin ein nicht genanntes Kabinettsmitglied.

Wenn die UNO den Einsatz finanziere, sei trotz des knappen Wehretats die Entsendung von Bundeswehr-Soldaten möglich. In Regierungskreisen war schon früher von einem Engagement in Nachkriegs-Irak die Rede.

Die "Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung" (FAS) berichtete, die Regierung wolle sich mit einem solchen Engagement wieder in die deutsch-amerikanischen Beziehungen "einkaufen". Im Auswärtigen Amt wurde dieser Bericht nicht bestätigt und auf Schröders Äußerungen verwiesen.

Schröder hatte am Freitag eine entsprechende Bereitschaft Deutschlands angedeutet: "Im Rahmen der Vereinten Nationen wird man mit Deutschland immer reden können. Und die Vereinten Nationen werden auf Deutschland immer zählen können", sagte er der ARD, ohne Einzelheiten zu nennen.

Als völlig unzutreffend wies das Auswärtige Amt einen Bericht der "FAS" zurück, wonach die deutsche Außenpolitik in den vergangenen Wochen auf eine Isolierung der USA im Sicherheitsrat gezielt habe. Deutschland sei vielmehr an einem Kompromiss unter Einbindung aller Mitglieder des Gremiums interessiert. Die Zeitung hatte aus einem vertraulichen Bericht des deutschen UNO-Botschafters Gunter Pleuger zitiert, wonach man auf ein Handeln der USA ohne UNO-Zustimmung und ein späteres Einknicken hinarbeiten solle.

Das Ministerium bestätigte indirekt die Existenz des Berichts, der aber nur einer von zahlreichen Berichten über die Prozesse im Sicherheitsrat sei.

[keepitshort]

#5073


es dürften nicht nur Russen sein
die US-Dollars als sichere Währung unterm Kopfkissen
haben

auch die Türken haben bevor ihre Währung stark
gefallen ist viel Geld in US-Dollars unterm Kopfkissen
gehabt.

Selbst in Argentinien haben die US-Dollar-Konten
gehabt.

Wenn den Leuten erstmal klar wird dass der US-Dollar
ca. 20% an Wert verlieren kann dann wir mach einer
sein Vermögen vor dieser Dollar-Inflation
schützen.

In Argentinien wären die mit Goldmünzen gut gefahren
aber hier in Deutschland gibt es ja
die Einlagensicherung bei Banken
dass hat man meinem Onkel so gut erklärt dass der
250.000 DM auf der SEB-Bank hat und dies dient
ihm als Rente.
Entweder ist der Bankberater ein Schlitzohr oder
einer der die Bankenkrisen in Deutschland nicht
sehen will.

Ich bin bei der Commerzbank und ich frage mich schon
wie ich in den nächsten 2 Jahren mein Eigentum
absichern soll.

[Basic]

Das Thema ist nicht neu!
Bei der Absicherung haben die Staatlichen die beste Absicherung. Auf jeden Fall auch zusätzlich unterschiedliche Konten bei unterschiedlichen Banken

Zusätzlich zur Physik natürlich.
Basic

[ThaiGuru]

@keepitshort

Würde mal dringend Deinem Onkel raten seine DMark (hat der wirklich noch DM auf dem Konto?) in Euro umzuwandeln zu lassen, und dann gelegentlich eine goldigere Anlageform zu wählen. Sonnst könnte es passieren, dass sich eine evtl. Erbonkel Hinterlassenschaft irgendwann vielleicht etwas verflüchtigt.

Dir persönlich kann ich nur raten, Dich von der Commerzbank gelegentlich zu verabschieden, und Dir eine fundamental gesundere/sichere Bank zu suchen. Frag mich jetzt aber bitte nicht nach Namen von sicheren *Fiat Money* Banken.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[matthiasch]

Hypo Vereinsbank

[kimmol8]

!

Dieser Beitrag wurde vom System automatisch gesperrt. Bei Fragen wenden Sie sich bitte an [e-mail]

[Imoen]

Nix wow, pure Abzocke.

[ThaiGuru]

Nicht mehr ganz taufrisch, doch immer noch brandaktuell!

Gruss

ThaiGuru

************

Another crisis nears in Japan
Commentary: Banking system catastrophe looms

By Paul Erdman, CBS.MarketWatch.com, Last Update: 1:29 PM ET March 13, 2003

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Given the current state of uncertainty that has engulfed the world`s financial markets, all we need is yet another crisis.

But one is definitely brewing in Japan.

Sooner or later that nation is going to be hit by a financial crisis of major proportions. Given the facts that Japan`s economy is the world`s second largest, that Japan is the largest exporter of capital on earth, that the Bank of Japan owns hundreds of billions of U.S. Treasury bonds and notes, a financial crisis there could send new shock waves around the world.

The entire banking system there is tottering on the edge of catastrophe. The situation is so acute that it requires management on a day-to-day basis.

On Wednesday, the Nihon Keizai Shimbun, that country`s equivalent of our Wall Street Journal and hardly a publication that has alarmist tendencies, reported:
"The Bank of Japan supplied a large amount of funds to the money market today, as it did yesterday, to avoid a systemic financial crisis."

That same day it also reported that an executive of a major bank received a phone call from a close aide to Prime Minister Junichiro Koizume on Sunday who asked:
"What emergency steps can the government take to avert a meltdown of the financial system should the stock market crash after the war on Iraq starts?" Paul Erdman, CBS.MarketWatch.com

Japan is the world’s 2nd largest economy yet it is right on the edge of an economic catastrophe.

As I have written in previous articles these are NOT normal times we are living in. Our world is resting on a pivotal edge from which a fall will occur. If the extreme volatility of the gold market is too much for your nerves to take then get out & put your money in a low yield money fund. No one ever promised that gold’s rise would come smoothly & without significant temporary price corrections.

* * * * * *

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[Saccard]

Einlagensicherung in D = Witz

Nicht mal die Pleite einer Großbank (Commerz-, HV, oder Deutsche Bank) könnte im Ernstfall aufgefangen werden.

Alles über 20.000 Euro ist ohnehin unsicher, da nicht staatlich garantiert.

In Österreich wird übrigens immer betont, daß die EU-vorgeschriebene staatlich garantierte 20.000 Euro Einlagensicherung im Ernstfall wohl nicht zur Anwendung käme. Ob es hier genauso ist?

Gruß
S.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.mips1.net/MGLdn.nsf/Current/8525690B0032142042256…

Average gold price seen at $344/oz - LBMA

By: Ken Gooding

Posted: 2003/03/16 Sun 17:22 ZE2 | © Mineweb 1997-2003

LONDON - The London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) is distributing the results of its annual poll of precious metals markets analysts – a poll that must be the biggest and most comprehensive exercise of its kind. No fewer than 24 analysts have contributed gold price forecasts.

To get straight to the bottom line of this year’s results in which analysts were asked to provide an average price for 2003 as well as their forecasts about highs and lows for the year. The average of the gold price predictions is US$344.917/oz, emphasising the general bullishness among the analysts as this is more than 11 percent above last year’s actual average of $309.677/oz.

weiter....
http://www.mips1.net/MGLdn.nsf/Current/8525690B0032142042256…

[Saccard]

"It is very rare that you can be as unqualifiedly bullish as you can be right now." Alan Greenspan on January 7, 1973, two days after the market peaked on its way to declining 50% over two years as we endured the worst recession since the depression."

[ThaiGuru]

Also da haben wir die Meldung, dass die "The London Bullion Market Association" *LBMA* einen durchschnittlichen Goldpreis von 344.- Dollar pro Unze für 2003 voraussagt.

Doch wer ist diese *LBMA* eigentlich, was macht sie, wer ist dieser Organisation angeschlossen, und was ist die Geschichte dieser Organisation?

Dazu einige orginal LBMA Links:

THE LONDON BULLION MARKET ASSOCIATION



http://www.lbma.org.uk/core_page.html

Liste der Mitglieder:

Besonders diejenigen Mitglieder, die das sogenannte Londoner Gold Preis Fixing bestimmen, solltet ihr einmal genauer ansehen. Das sind die aufgeführten Banken mit dem angehängten *GF*

http://www.lbma.org.uk/members_list.html

Die Direktoren der verschiedenen Commitees der LBMA

Besonders interessant die Tatsache, dass dem "Physischen Gold Commitee" Peter Smith, JP Morgan Chase angehört, der Bank, der die weltgrössten Shortpositionen in Gold zugeschrieben werden. Dass ein bekanntes weiteres Mitglied,
"The Bank of Nova Scotia" - ScotiaMocatta, gleichzeitig auch Aktionär bei der privaten "Federal Reserve Bank" *FED*, der USA, zu sein scheint, sei hier nur am Rande vermerkt.

http://www.lbma.org.uk/lbma_comm.html

Hier noch einige weitere externe Links zur *LBMA*

London Bullion Market Association (LBMA)

http://www.pamp.ch/Gold/ll/lonbulma.html

London Bullion Market Clearing Turnover

http://www.pamp.ch/Gold/ll/lonbultu.html

"Original Five London Brokers"

http://info.goldavenue.com/Info_site/in_mark/in_ma_lond_ofb.…

London Gold "Fixing"

http://info.goldavenue.com/Info_site/in_mark/in_ma_lond_fix.…




THE GRAND LBMA EXPOSÉ: A Collective-Mind Analysis

Part - 1

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/baron907.html

[ThaiGuru]

THE GRAND LBMA EXPOSÉ: A Collective-Mind Analysis

Part - 2

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/baron913.html

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.debka.com/

Last Updated on March 16, 2003, 10:51 PM (GMT+02:00)

HEADLINES

Israeli hospitals told to complete sealing process of wards and facilities by Monday morning. Sunday noon, Israel’s First-Aid rescue service Magen David Adom moved command and communications centers to bomb-proof shelters

DEBKAfile’s Military Sources: Full-scale US-British offensive against Iraq is scheduled to begin Monday, 24 hours after Azores summit

First stage: Combined bomber-missile strikes against strategic targets, including government centers, military and civilian communications systems, radio and television broadcasting centers, transport hubs.

Preparations wind up Sunday night to fly and parachute ground troops into Iraq from launching bases in and outside Middle East. US 82nd Airborne Division will be flown in from Afghanistan

At Azores summit, Blair promised Bush British 1st armored division would take part in assault on Basra, vitally augmenting allied southern advance

World has another 24 hours to see if diplomacy will work – Bush at end of Azores summit Sunday with British and Spanish prime ministers. Three leaders declared Security Council Resolution 1441 provided last opportunity for Saddam Hussein to disarm or face serious consequences.

They issued final appeal to international community to issue last strong, unified ultimatum for Saddam’s immediate unconditional disarmament. Bush: He can avert war by leaving Iraq.

Blair pledges protection of Iraq’s territorial integrity. He declared natural resources will remain property of people of Iraq

Earlier Sunday, Chirac`s proposal of 30-day deadline for arms inspections rejected instantly by US vice president Cheney: Further delay helps no-one but Saddam Hussein


DEBKAfile Exclusive from Iraqi underground sources: Attempt on life of Saddam’s elder son Uday was made on March 8 at al-Jadariya Boating Club on Tigris River. He is believed to have escaped with injuries from this second assassination attempt, but his three bodyguards were killed.

DEBKA-Net-Weekly reveals: Also on March 8, former Lebanese president Gemayel took US colonel to Saddam’s palace on secret mission to persuade him to leave and prevent war:

If you don’t leave, we’ll target you,” said US Colonel. Saddam replied:”I’ll send you home in a box” and “I’m not afraid to die.” Read resume of conversation and Gemayel mission below

Saddam puts Iraq on war footing day Bush meets British and Spanish premiers for emergency summit in Portuguese Azores. Takes personal command of air and surface-surface missile forces. Four military districts ordered to “destroy any foreign aggression”. Younger son Qusay in command of Baghdad

High terror alert prompts Israel’s closure of Palestinian areas Saturday midnight, 24 hours before Jewish Purim festival begins night of March 17

IDF investigate death of 23-year American activist Rachel Corrie in Gaza Strip town of Rafah whom Palestinian sources say was run over blocking a military bulldozer as it flattened Palestinian sniping positions. A group of peace protesters has been impeding Israel efforts to clear terrain of firing positions.

Pakistan claims to have arrested another prominent al Qaeda member, Moroccan national Yasir al-Jazeeri, in Lahore, together with computer and discs

First giant US B-1 bombers hit Iraqi radar, open up western warfront to ground invasion

Read DEBKAfile Military Analysis below

Last Updated on March 16, 2003, 10:51 PM (GMT+02:00)

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=UAU2BPK2…



Bush Says Iraq Diplomacy Ends on Monday

Sun March 16, 2003 05:58 PM ET

By Steve Holland



LAJES AIRBASE, Azores (Reuters) - President Bush said on Sunday the United Nations has only one more day to find a diplomatic end to the Iraq crisis before the United States moves to a war footing.

"We concluded that tomorrow is a moment of truth for the world,"

Bush said after an emergency summit with the leaders of Britain, Spain and Portugal on the windswept Azores Islands in the eastern Atlantic.

Bush said the U.N. Security Council must agree on Monday on a new resolution authorizing war against Iraq.

He left no doubt that the United States and its like-minded allies would otherwise move to invade Iraq without U.N. backing.

"Tomorrow`s the day that we will determine whether or not diplomacy can work," Bush said.

Iraqi President Saddam Hussein vowed that his country would fight back "anywhere in the world" if invaded.

"When the enemy opens the war on a large scale, it should realize that the battle between us will be waged wherever there is sky, earth and water anywhere in the world,"

he said in comments reported by the state news agency only minutes after Bush had finished speaking.

Bush, pursuing a global "war against terror" in the wake of the September 11 attacks on the United States, branded Saddam a sponsor of terrorism and again demanded that he surrender his alleged weapons of mass destruction or be disarmed by force.

Iraq denies possessing nuclear, chemical or biological arms.

Prime Ministers Jose Maria Aznar of Spain and Tony Blair of Britain said one final round of diplomatic contacts would be made on Monday, in a last-ditch effort to win agreement on an ultimatum for Saddam.

Diplomatic analysts said the leaders` statements sounded like the start of a countdown to war -- irrespective of whether agreement could be reached at the deeply divided United Nations.

"If I were an Iraqi, I would be waiting for the bombs to start falling any time from tomorrow night," said Rosemary Hollis of the Royal Institute of International Affairs in London.

"The message Bush was sending to Saddam was, `Forget it, we`re coming to get you`," said British analyst Toby Dodge.

There seemed little chance of reaching agreement in the U.N. Security Council, where France and Russia want weapons inspectors to have more time and have vowed to veto any resolution that could be seen as authorizing war.

Blair challenged U.N. members to make their mind up "overnight" on a second resolution over Iraq, but expressed little hope an 11th-hour consensus could be reached.

"It is difficult to know how we can resolve this," Blair told reporters on his plane back to London.

Bush appeared to be allowing diplomacy one more day in an attempt to give Blair and Aznar political cover to say all diplomatic options had been exhausted. Both face bitter opposition at home to war.

The three leaders were to make a flurry of phone calls to Security Council members in a last-ditch effort to seek an international consensus.

But U.S. officials said the resolution could be withdrawn with no vote if it was headed for clear defeat at the United Nations.


WAR PREPARATIONS

U.S. officials said the president was prepared to deliver a nationally televised address warning Americans of the coming war as early as Monday, serving Saddam a final ultimatum and giving humanitarian workers and journalists time to leave Iraq.

In Washington, Vice President Dick Cheney told CBS` "Face the Nation" program that a war would be quick: "I think it will go relatively quickly.... Weeks rather than months."

Bush said war could be avoided if Saddam would go into exile. "Saddam can leave the country, if he`s interested in peace," he said.

But the Iraqi leader was bracing for invasion, 12 years after the first Gulf War which drove his occupying troops from Kuwait but left his grip on power intact. Earlier on Sunday he divided Iraq into four military districts under his command to prepare for attack by a quarter of a million U.S. and British troops massed in the Gulf region.

Saddam again denied having banned weapons and called the United States "the unjust judge of the world."

In Kuwait, the staging ground for any assault on Iraq, a government official said he believed war would start within 10 days. Information Minister Sheikh Ahmad al-Fahd al-Sabah told a news conference: "I think war is quite near."

Jeremy Batstone, head of research at NatWest stockbrokers in London, said financial markets would brace for a mid-week assault on Iraq.

"The initial reaction in the market on Monday is that the oil price will go higher, we will see the dollar weaken, bond prices rise, and the equity markets will lose some of the strength that we saw over the course of Thursday and Friday, although volumes will be extremely thin," he said.

DIPLOMATIC MOVES

Bush, Blair and Aznar came to the Azores facing global anti-war protests and a failure thus far to attract nine votes on the 15-nation Security Council for a new resolution that could provide important moral backing for war, even if the French or Russians vetoed the measure.

"Maybe it`s a small chance, a small possibility, but even if it`s one in 1 million, it`s always worthwhile fighting for a political solution," said Portuguese Prime Minister Jose Manuel Durao Barroso, the summit host.

Bush, Blair and Aznar showed little interest in signals from France that it could accept a 30-day or 60-day limit on U.N. weapons inspections. "Without a credible ultimatum authorizing force in the event of non-compliance, then more discussion is just more delay," Blair said.

Bush specifically criticized the French for their veto threat.

"France showed their cards," he said. "So cards have been played. And we`ll just have to take an assessment after tomorrow to determine what that card meant."


POST-SADDAM IRAQ

The summit leaders emphasized their comment to rebuild a post-Saddam Iraq, in comments that diplomatic analysts took as a further sign of the inevitability of war.

"I think it`s amazing that Bush didn`t actually mention the war. Instead he leapt straight to the need for reconstruction and the need for U.N. involvement in that," said British analyst Dodge.

The leaders said they were committed to the creation of a Palestinian state alongside Israel -- addressing critics who have accused the United States of focusing on Iraq to the detriment of Middle East peacemaking.

They released a separate statement calling for transatlantic unity, urging "our friends and allies to put aside differences and work together."

[ThaiGuru]

Die neuesten Meldungen zu einem bevorstehenden Angriff der USA und der Briten, zeigen bereits Wirkung auf den Goldpreis!

[erdede]

morgen zusammen,

wie hoch liegt eigentlich der durchschnittliche Goldpreis heute?
hat jemand von euch eine quelle wo ich commodities tageskurse (höchst tiefst eröffnung schluss) auf excel hinunterladen kann?

Jedenfalls liegt der geschätzte Durchschnitt wesentlich tiefer als die Prognosen, die wir hier Board zu schätzen gewagt haben.

Gruss
erdede

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.ftd.de/pw/in/1047819366564.html?nv=hptn

Aus der FTD vom 17.3.2003

Bush stellt Uno letztes Ultimatum

Von Hubert Wetzel, Washington, James Harding, James Blitz, Lajes

US-Präsident George W. Bush gibt dem Uno-Sicherheitsrat noch einen Tag, um über eine zweite Resolution zu entscheiden, die einen Krieg gegen Irak autorisieren soll. "Montag ist der Moment der Wahrheit für die Welt", sagte Bush am Sonntag nach dem kurzfristig anberaumten Gipfeltreffen mit Großbritanniens Premier Tony Blair und Spaniens Regierungschef José María Aznar auf der portugiesischen Azoreninsel Terceira.

George W. Bush, Tony Blair, Jose Maria Aznar stimmen ihre Irak-Politik ab. (AP)

"Morgen ist der Tag, an dem wir entscheiden, ob die Diplomatie funktioniert oder nicht", sagte Bush. Bush, Blair und Aznar hatten sich auf den Azoren getroffen, um über das weitere Vorgehen im Sicherheitsrat zu beraten. Die drei Länder hatten dort den Entwurf für eine Kriegsresolution vorgelegt, die Irak eine Frist bis Montag setzen sollte. Bisher konnten Washington, London und Madrid aber nicht die nötige Neun-Stimmen-Mehrheit für das Dokument bekommen. Zudem kündigten Frankreich und Russland ein Veto an. Sollte sich am Montag keine Mehrheit für eine Kriegsresolution finden, wollen die Kriegsbefürworter die Suche nach einer Lösung der Irak-Krise innerhalb der Uno einstellen.

US-Vertreter hatten ausdrücklich betont, das Treffen auf den Azoren sei kein "Kriegsrat". Die Frage sei, "ob es Zeit ist, den Vorhang fallen zu lassen, oder ob es Hoffnung (auf eine Einigung im Sicherheitsrat) gibt", sagte US-Außenminister Colin Powell vor dem Gipfel.

Resolution völkerrechtlich "nicht unabdingbar"

Nach Ansicht Washingtons legitimiert bereits die Abrüstungsresolution 1441 vom vergangenen November Militäraktionen gegen Irak. Aznar sagte am Sonntag, eine zweite Resolution, die Krieg ausdrücklich billigt, sei zwar "politisch wünschenswert", völkerrechtlich jedoch "nicht unabdingbar".

Saddam Hussein könne einen Krieg noch verhindern, wenn er das Land verlasse, sagte Bush. Der Präsident sprach auch von US-Plänen für den Wiederaufbau Iraks. Dabei will Bush weiter mit der Uno zusammenarbeiten.

Uno-Helikopter abgezogen

Im Weißen Haus wird Medienberichten zufolge bereits an einer Rede gearbeitet, die Bush kurz nach der Entscheidung, die Diplomatie zu beenden, halten soll. Dem Vernehmen nach wird der Präsident Bagdad darin ein wenige Tage kurzes Ultimatum setzen, das Ausländern in Irak noch die Abreise ermöglichen soll.

Powell riet bereits am Sonntag Ausländern dazu, Bagdad zu verlassen. Die Bundesregierung forderte alle deutschen Staatsbürger auf, sofort aus Irak abzureisen. Nach Angaben aus Bagdad hat auch der Versicherungskonzern, der die Hubschrauber der Uno-Inspektoren versichert hat, die Policen gekündigt. Ein Teil der Helikopterflotte sei daher aus Irak abgezogen worden, hieß es.

US-Vizepräsident Richard Cheney ließ am Sonntag kaum noch Zweifel daran, dass Washington die Diplomatie für gescheitert hält:

"Es ist klar, dass Präsident Bush in den nächsten Tagen sehr, sehr schwierige und wichtige Entscheidungen wird fällen müssen."

Chiracs Vorschlag abgewiesen

Cheney wies auch den Vorschlag von Frankreichs Präsident Jacques Chirac zurück, Irak eine Frist von 30 Tagen einzuräumen, um seine Bereitschaft zur Abrüstung zu beweisen. Bisher hatte Paris jede Art von Ultimatum strikt abgelehnt. In Interviews mit den US-Fernsehsendern CNN und CBS sagte Chirac am Sonntag jedoch, Frankreich sei bereit, die Fortsetzung der Waffeninspektionen zu befristen, sofern die Kontrolleure dies forderten.

Das US-Verteidigungsministerium will Militärexperten zufolge einen Angriff in der Sommerhitze vermeiden und steht daher unter Zeitdruck. Die USA sind nicht bereit, Irak ein längeres Ultimatum als sieben bis zehn Tage einzuräumen - und auch das nur dann, wenn sie dafür eine Neun-Stimmen-Mehrheit im Sicherheitsrat bekommen. Erst am Freitag hatte das Weiße Haus einen Vorschlag Chiles für eine neue Uno-Resolution abgeschmettert, demzufolge Irak fünf Abrüstungsziele vorgegeben und zur Erfüllung eine Frist von 30 Tagen gesetzt werden sollte. Irak hatte am Samstag den Kriegszustand ausgerufen und das Land in Militärbezirke aufgeteilt.

© 2003 Financial Times Deutschland , © Illustration: AP

[erdede]

Morgen Thai Guru , oder ist bei Dir nicht morgen?


erdede

[ThaiGuru]

@erdede

Doch, doch, bei mir ist leider auch schon morgen.
Sehe mir gerade die asiatischen Börsen an, die sind alle schon wieder knatschrot. Das lässt für die heutige Thai Börse auch nichts gutes erwarten.

http://finance.yahoo.com/m2?u

Zu Deiner Frage zu dem jetzigen durchschnittlichen Goldpreis 2003, kann ich Dir aber auch nicht weiterhelfen, da ich keine genaue Zahl vorliegen habe. Dürfte vielleicht aus dem Handgelenk geschüttelt, bis jetzt so um die 330.-/335.- Dollar liegen?

[ThaiGuru]

Saddam droht mit weltweitem Krieg

Iraks Diktator Saddam Hussein will bei einem US-Militärschlag die Konfrontation auf die gesamte Welt ausweiten. Das meldete die amtliche irakische Nachrichtenagentur INA. Sollte Washington den Irak angreifen, würde die Schlacht in „allen Teilen der Welt“ ausgetragen werden, sagte Saddam am Sonntag.

[Imoen]

Unteres Posting von mir bezog sich auf ein inzwischen gelöschtes Ebayposting ( Degussaversteigerung) hier in diesem Thread.

Nicht das jemand etwas falsch versteht.


#5086 von Imoen 16.03.03 21:12:28 Beitrag Nr.: 8.902.104 8902104
Dieses Posting: versenden | melden | drucken | Antwort schreiben
Nix wow, pure Abzocke.

[ThaiGuru]

Wünsche allen einen schönen goldigen Morgen

Für diejenigen die es noch nicht wissen sollten, der Goldpreis ist über die Nacht gestiegen. Zur Zeit dieses Postings, nach Kitco Chart, um 7.40 Dollar pro Unze !

Gruss

ThaiGuru

http://www.kitco.com/images/live/gold.gif

[keepitshort]

hab mal in meine Excel-Tabelle geschaut

Rohölpreis ist im Vorfeld eines militärischen Konflikts
USA-Irak gestiegen

im Moment läuft alles wie im Jan1991

was wird wohl passieren wenn der Rohöl-Future
wieder fällt.

Dieser heutige Goldpreisanstieg steht fundamental
auf schwachen Füssen.

[erdede]

@keepitshort
à propos Rxcel-Tabelle...

kennst Du eine Quelle wo man Zahlenreihen (Höchst,Tiefst,Eröffnung,Schluss) oder nur Schluss von Commodities auf Excel runterladen kann?

Vielen Dank im voraus.

Gruss
erdede

[keepitshort]

@erdede
#5104

hol dir den April-Future der hat die höchsten Umsätze
dann hast Du einen schönen Goldchart daily
und wenn Du wills kannst Du ja 5 min einstellen.

meine Excel-Wert hole ich über video-Text
aber nur um einen ungefähren Trend zu sehen


http://www.futuresource.com/quotes/quotes.asp?
symbols=GC&options=GCJ02&type=optfut,optindex&fmt=o" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">http://www.futuresource.com/quotes/quotes.asp?
symbols=GC&options=GCJ02&type=optfut,optindex&fmt=o

[erdede]

@keepitshort


Danke! werde mir das mal anschauen.
Bei Yahoo z.B. sind eben Zahlenreihen von USA und D-Aktien verfügbar. Für Commodities habe ich eben nichts gefunden.

Gruss
erdede

[keepitshort]

@erdede
#5106
http://www.mrci.com/ohlc/

hier gibts excel-Tabellen:
http://www.economagic.com/

[ThaiGuru]

@keepitshort

Du schreibst in Posting #5103

Dieser heutige Goldpreisanstieg steht fundamental
auf schwachen Füssen.

Du gibst Dich eher falschen Hoffnungen hin!



Der heutige Goldpreisanstieg kann fundamentaler gar nicht sein!

Nur weil Du den Wiedereinstieg verpasst zu haben scheinst, muss der Goldpreis nicht unbedingt wieder dahin zurückfallen, wo Du ihn gerne sehen würdest.

Gold, und Goldminen, strong buy!!

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

http://finanzen.tiscali.de/press/news/open/index.jsp?id=OLDE…



17/03/2003 10:50

Kriegsangst lässt Preis für Gold und Öl steigen - Aktien fallen

Frankfurt/London, 17. Mär (Reuters) - Angst vor den Folgen eines sich abzeichnenden Irak-Kriegs haben am Montag die Preis für Gold und Rohöl steigen lassen und die Aktienmärkte in Europa unter Druck gesetzt. Die Kurse der als sichere Anlage geltenden Staatsanleihen zogen an, während der Dollar aus Sorge vor einem Angriff der USA auf Irak ohne UNO-Unterstützung deutlich nachgab.

"Die Sorge ist, dass die USA und Großbritannien allein in den Krieg ziehen und dadurch die politischen Spannungen zwischen den Industrienationen wachsen. Das kann der Wirtschaft nicht gut tun",

sagte ein Frankfurter Aktienhändler. Während der Stoxx50-Index der wichtigsten europäischen Unternehmen drei Prozent auf 2061 Punkten nachgab, verteuerte sich Gold als traditionelle Anlageform in Krisenzeiten um mehr als sechs Dollar auf 343,50 Dollar. Öl verteuerte sich aus Sorgen, ein Krieg in der ölreichen Region könnte die Versorgung der
Industrienationen mit dem wichtigen Rohstoff beinträchtigen. So stieg der Preis für ein Barrel (159 Liter) der in Europa führenden Öl-Sorte Brent mit Liefertermin Mai um 60 US-Cents auf 30,73 Dollar.

US-Präsident George Bush hatte auf einem Gipfeltreffen mit dem britischen Premierminister Tony Blair und dem spanischen Ministerpräsidenten Jose Maria Aznar am Sonntag
den Vereinten Nationen (UNO) noch einem Tag Zeit gegeben, eine neue Irak-Resolution mit einem klaren Ultimatum und einer Kriegsandrohung zu verabschieden. Ansonsten wäre die Zeit für Diplomatie vorbei.

Während Spanien und Großbritannien, die Haltung der USA
unterstützen, fordern Frankreich, Russland und Deutschland
weiter eine friedliche Lösung des Konfliktes. Die USA und
Großbritannien haben am Golf rund 300.000 Soldaten für einen Krieg einsatzbereit. Sie drohen Irak mit einen Angriff, sollte das Land nicht wie gefordert abrüsten.

DOLLAR FÄLLT - RENTEN GEFRAGT

Der Dollar gab gegenüber dem Euro deutlich nach, was im
Handel mit der Isolierung der USA erklärt wurde. "Jetzt sind wir ziemlich sicher, dass die USA ohne breite internationale Unterstützung in den Krieg ziehen werden und das belastet den Dollar", sagte David Mann, Devisenanalyst bei Standard Chartered in London. So verteuerte sich der Euro gegenüber dem Greenback
auf 1,0807 Dollar nach 1,0739 Dollar zum Handelsschluss am
Freitag in New York.

Staatsanleihen, die wie Gold vor allem in wirtschaftlich unsicheren Zeiten gefragt sind, verteuerten sich. So stieg der Bund-Future um 49 Basispunkte auf 115,25 Prozent. Die zehnjährige Staatsanleihe des Bundes legte 45 Ticks auf 104,160 zu und rentierte mit 3,977 Prozent.

ben/ked

© Reuters 2002. Alle Rechte vorbehalten.

[ThaiGuru]

March 24 issue

The Arrogant Empire

America’s unprecedented power scares the world, and the Bush administration has only made it worse. How we got here—and what we can do about it now

PART I: The United States will soon be at war with Iraq. It would seem, on the face of it, a justifiable use of military force. Saddam Hussein runs one of the most tyrannical regimes in modern history.

By Fareed Zakaria

weiter....

http://www.msnbc.com/news/885222.asp?0cv=KA01&cp1=1


NEWSWEEK

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.msnbc.com/news/NEWS_Front.asp?ta=y



The Unmighty Dollar

A costly war could drive more foreign investors away from the United States, hurting living standards and our influence abroad

By Clyde V. Prestowitz Jr.
NEWSWEEK

March 24 issue

As America prepares for war, all eyes are fixed on the capabilities of its troops and high-tech weapons. Less noticed is an Achilles’ heel that is likely to be made a lot more tender by the war, with important negative implications for future U.S. living standards—and influence.

WHILE THE UNITED States is the greatest power the world has ever seen, it is also the greatest debtor, living beyond its means and heavily dependent on foreign lenders. For years America has been importing more than it exports.

These “current account” deficits have now reached an annual rate of $500 billion, or about 5 percent of GDP and 50 percent more than the United States spends on defense. America has been paying for the difference by borrowing. In this case, the money has to come from foreign lenders because the buying that generates the deficits is done abroad. The debt America owes abroad has now reached about $2 trillion, or about 20 percent of GDP. At its current growth rate, total U.S. foreign debt could easily top 65 percent of GDP by 2010. Even with interest rates of only 3 percent, it would take nearly $200 billion annually for the United States simply to finance the debt.

The deficit ultimately arises because America saves far less than other countries, and the war is about to make that situation a lot worse. Economist Martin Wolf has conservatively estimated the cost of the war and of rebuilding Iraq over a 10-year period at $156 billion to $755 billion. Other estimates have run as high as $3 trillion. In the 1991 gulf war, most of the cost was paid by other countries. This time, the United States will have to bear most of the burden itself. Without new taxes, this will greatly increase the U.S. budget deficit.

For a long time it has been relatively easy to get the foreign funds as overseas investors have rushed to buy U.S. stocks, bonds, real estate and companies. During the tech bubble of the 1990s America became the location of choice for investors from countries with large international reserves, such as China, Taiwan, Japan and Western Europe. The flood of money buoyed the dollar and stocks, allowing Americans to live beyond their means by consuming more than they produced.

More recently, however, there has been a significant change in the flow of the foreign funds that is as critical to U.S. economic health as the flow of oil. Over the past year, private foreign investment in the United States has fallen dramatically. It has been partially offset by increased buying of U.S. Treasury notes by Asian governments. But, at the same time, some governments like Russia have also begun to shift some of their reserve currency holdings from dollars to euros. As a result, we have seen the dollar fall in value against the euro by about 25 percent. That kind of a decline occurs when foreigners decide to put their money someplace other than the United States. U.S. international debt is getting so large, foreigners become nervous about their holdings and cut back on buying.

Thus, the biggest casualty of the upcoming war with Iraq may be the U.S. economy. A dramatic increase in debt could result in a fall of the dollar that would reduce U.S. living standards while significantly increasing the cost of projecting U.S. power abroad. The only way to avoid this scenario is by raising taxes, something that will also reduce living standards. Another option is to become more dependent on lenders like China and Saudi Arabia. Either way, U.S. power may not loom nearly so large as many now imagine.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Prestowitz is president of the Economic Strategy Institute and author of the forthcoming book “Rogue Nation.”

© 2003 Newsweek, Inc.

[kazman]

[Thoemsi]

Hier kommt man von der HP des White House aus drauf....
http://www.cafeshops.com/cp/store.aspx?s=thewhitehouse.32436
Da fällt mir nix mehr ein

[Thoemsi]

Die Seite wirkt verdammt echt

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.usagold.com

The Afternoon Gold Report...

by Jon Warner

March 17, 2003 (usagold.com)


New York spot gold settled higher at $336.50 an ounce up 50 cents an ounce from Friday’s close. "There is only one obsession in the market`s mind right now, and that is war, the timing and how quickly it is over," said Bear Stearns analyst Steve Barrow. The dollar surged against the euro and yen after a White House spokesman said President George W. Bush will give Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein an ultimatum tonight to leave his country or face an invasion. ``There is now a certain, and imminent timetable, with the chance of a positive outcome,`` said Greg Anderson, senior foreign exchange strategist at ABN Amro Inc. in Chicago, one of the 10 biggest traders in the $1.2 trillion-a-day currency market. He said speculation of a quick war ``is making people`` buy back dollars they had sold in recent weeks. A surrender by Hussein would drive the dollar to $1.04 per euro, he said. ``It`s fear that is keeping capital from flowing into the U.S. -- people want to reduce risk before`` a war, said Laurie Cameron, head of global foreign exchange at J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.`s private bank, which invests $300 billion. Cameron is recommending clients to hold options on Swiss francs and New Zealand dollars. "Gold is climbing against the other currencies, but only slowly," says James Turk, a financier and longtime currency and gold analyst. "Gold is still below 520 Swiss francs per ounce." Turk, whose Freemarket Gold & Money Report takes a detailed look at bullion`s link to currencies, believes a full-fledged gold rally will resume once gold gets above 520 Swiss francs. The Swiss franc is seen as a politically neutral currency.

London gold was fixed this afternoon at $340.75 an ounce, up from $340.50 an ounce at the morning fixing. "We are clearly moving into the final throes of all this. It was weeks, then days and now hours. Gold is a very sensitive barometer, but at the moment it`s just backing off and not doing anything," said Kevin Crisp, precious metals analyst at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein. "Gold is benefiting from economic, financial and political uncertainty generally and we do not see even a short, successful war as the panacea," said Kamal Naqvi, metals analyst at Macquarie Research in London. "The markets are not really considering whether we go to war, but are liquidating positions ahead of a war," said Nick Parsons of Commerzbank. "War is a constant. If you don`t expect it you`ve probably been reading the wrong newspapers." Dealers were now turning to the longer term, Parsons said. "The fear for dollar bears (who think the US unit is on a downward trend) is that we will not see a repeat of Desert Storm (the 1991 Gulf War), when war was over in weeks, that it could be different this time" and "It could be much more costly, especially in terms of re-building. Thoughts are beginning to turn from winning the war to winning the peace"

Earlier spot gold closed at $344.00 an ounce on Monday in Hong Kong, up $9.20 from Friday`s close of $334.80. The dollar fell against the yen and the euro, with the market expecting a war because the United Nations would be unable to agree on a diplomatic solution. But fears Japanese authorities may intervene limited the dollar`s downside. "People are afraid the war is really close," said Leon Lee, dealing officer at the Bank of China in Hong Kong. "It is very hard to predict what will happen and when, but most people prefer to be long," Lee said. John Gajewski, technical strategist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney, saw gold heading to $360.00 if the market broke cleanly away from $346. Other analysts also saw scope for further price gains. "We might not see $400 again, but we could see $350, $360 or even $370," said Paul Macarounas, associate director at NM Rothschild (Australia) in Sydney. ``People are now thinking that the U.S. and other willing countries are going to attack Iraq imminently,`` said Martin Mayne, a gold trader at N.M. Rothschild & Sons (Australia) Ltd. in Sydney. The Azores meeting ``left the market in no doubt that there is a 24-hour deadline for diplomacy to work,`` said Greg McKenna, a Sydney-based market strategist at National Australia Bank Ltd. ``It now looks like an attack could only be days away.`` The ultimatum ``means a war is undoubtedly going to start soon,`` said Masahiro Fukuhara, a Tokyo-based currency strategist at Barclays Global Investors, which has about $700 billion under management. ``This is not good for the dollar.``

Gold hedging by 84 producers accounting for 66 percent of global output fell by 14.8 million ounces to 80.9 million ounces in 2002, according to a NM Rothschild-sponsored report released on Monday. The Gold Hedging Indicator, produced by Haliburton Mineral Services and Virtual Metals Research, said the recent sharp rise in gold prices, combined with low interest rates, had considerably weakened the propensity of gold producers to lock in prices by selling on forward markets. "To put into context, this reduction in hedging more than offsets the amount of central bank gold sold during 2002 under the terms of the European Gold Agreement," the report said. The study said gold producers still had 1.6 years of output tied into hedging at the end of 2002, but this was down from two years at the end of 2001. "We are perhaps witnessing a seismic shift in the nature of gold mining companies, which in the last decade have come to be associated with sophisticated financial engineering...to protect themselves against seriously and successively weak gold prices," said Jessica Cross, chief executive of Virtual Metals. "Concurrent with the recent U.S. dollar price strength of gold, mining companies have been unwinding their hedge books."


GEOPOLITICAL NEWS:

The United States and its allies on Monday abandoned efforts to win U.N. backing for war with Iraq and prepared to deliver a final ultimatum to President Saddam Hussein to go into exile immediately or face annihilation. As diplomacy failed, U.N. weapons inspectors and other foreigners scrambled to evacuate Baghdad to escape a massive U.S. aerial onslaught, followed by a ground invasion to kill or capture Saddam and dismantle his government. President Bush scheduled an address to the American people Monday evening to explain why he thought war was necessary unless Saddam left Iraq immediately. "He will say that to avoid military conflict, Saddam Hussein must leave the country," said White House spokesman Ari Fleischer. "The next move will be up to Saddam Hussein." Secretary of State Colin Powell said: "The time for diplomacy has passed. I can think of nothing that Saddam Hussein could do diplomatically. That time is now over. He has had his chance. He`s had many chances over the last 12 years and he`s blown every one of those chances," he said. Still, Bush was expected to give Saddam a brief window, perhaps 48 or 72 hours, to depart before the shooting started.

The leaders of the United States, Britain, Spain and Portugal met yesterday on Monday on the wind-swept Azores Islands in the eastern Atlantic, "We concluded that tomorrow is a moment of truth for the world." Bush said the 15-member Security Council had to agree in the next 24 hours on a resolution laying the groundwork for war. He left no doubt that the United States and its allies would otherwise move to invade Iraq without U.N. backing.

U.N. weapons inspectors are packing up and will leave Baghdad on Tuesday, a senior foreign diplomat in the city told Reuters on Monday. "U.N. weapons inspectors will pull out of Baghdad early on Tuesday," the diplomat said. Earlier, witnesses said some of the dozens of remaining inspectors had checked out of their city hotels ahead of a possible evacuation as the United States prepared for military action against Iraq.

Ten Palestinians, including a four-year-old girl, were killed during Israeli swoops in the Gaza Strip on Monday that touched off fierce battles with gunmen, witnesses said. The bloodshed in Nuseirat refugee camp in central Gaza and around the town of Beit Lehiya in the north was a fresh blow to U.S. and British attempts to promote the prospect of Israeli-Palestinian peace as possible war in Iraq approaches. The incursion came a day after an Israeli army bulldozer killed an American woman protester in the Gaza Strip as she demonstrated against a house demolition in the southern town of Rafah. The army called the death a "regrettable accident."


ECONOMIC NEWS:

A second Gulf War could trigger recession in the euro zone, European officials said on Monday as markets braced for an imminent invasion of Iraq. Central banks in Germany and Italy warned that the global economy was being harmed by the tension and the European Commission said a lasting spike in oil prices could heap more damage on the spluttering euro zone economy. "A stagnation or even a recession in the euro area cannot be excluded," the Commission said in its `worst-case` assessment of what a U.S.-led attack on Iraq could mean for the euro zone.


Comment: Gold came under pressure due to a strong rally in the U.S. dollar and a “war rally” in the equities market. It appears that the price of gold is holding steady in the face of imminent war having already blown off the so-called “war premium”. Gold is actually reacting more to volatile U.S. dollar movements. Few are willing to place their bets on an untested currency such as the Euro and certainly the Yen is practically worthless as currencies go. A growing concern for the dollar is the reemerging threat of inflation as evidenced by the surging PPI in the last two months. It should be noted that Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan and Fed Governor Ben S. Bernanke threatened to use the printing press to stimulate inflation against the threat of deflation. A direct quote from Governor Bernanke before the National Economists Club, Washington, D.C. November 21, 2002: “the U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost. By increasing the number of U.S. dollars in circulation, or even by credibly threatening to do so, the U.S. government can also reduce the value of a dollar in terms of goods and services, which is equivalent to raising the prices in dollars of those goods and services. We conclude that, under a paper-money system, a determined government can always generate higher spending and hence positive inflation.” The lower gold price in dollar terms has made gold more affordable and desirable for those who are under domination of other currencies. Physical gold purchases remain very strong in Asia (particularly in China, Japan, and SE Asia). Gold producers continue to aggressively unwind hedgebooks (see Haliburton Mineral Services and Virtual Metals Research report above) due to pathetic low interest rates and the likelihood of higher gold prices as inflation returns to the markets while debt surges to unsustainable record high levels. Gold has and continues to serve investment portfolios well as an insurance policy against economic and geopolitical uncertainties.


- Jon H. Warner-


E-Mail the current report to a friend or to yourself.
__________________________
Jon Warner is a professional geologist with nearly 24 years in exploration and project development in both mining and petroleum. Mr. Warner brings to the table an impressive industry contact list, thorough knowledge of the precious metals and energy markets as well as a practical understanding of gold`s role in the private investment portfolio. His strong knowledge in these fields has been demonstrated at the USAGOLD Discussion Forum where he posts on a regular basis as Black Blade.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



We invite you to stay tuned to the gold market through our DISCUSSION FORUM: http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum
featuring round the clock gold news & commentary from the public.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[ThaiGuru]

http://biz.yahoo.com/rm/030317/markets_gold_hedging_1.html

Reuters

Gold hedging falls further in 2002 -Rothschild

Monday March 17, 11:56 am ET

LONDON, March 17 (Reuters) - Gold hedging by 84 producers accounting for 66 percent of global output fell by 14.8 million ounces to 80.9 million ounces in 2002, according to a NM Rothschild-sponsored report released on Monday.

The Gold Hedging Indicator, produced by Haliburton Mineral Services and Virtual Metals Research, said the recent sharp rise in gold prices (XAU=), combined with low interest rates, had considerably weakened the propensity of gold producers to lock in prices by selling on forward markets.

"To put into context, this reduction in hedging more than offsets the amount of central bank gold sold during 2002 under the terms of the European Gold Agreement," the report said.

The study said gold producers still had 1.6 years of output tied into hedging at the end of 2002, but this was down from two years at the end of 2001.

"We are perhaps witnessing a seismic shift in the nature of gold mining companies, which in the last decade have come to be associated with sophisticated financial engineering...to protect themselves against seriously and successively weak gold prices," said Jessica Cross, chief executive of Virtual Metals.

"Concurrent with the recent U.S. dollar price strength of gold, mining companies have been unwinding their hedge books."

Australia`s commitment to hedging remains the highest at 2.2 years, but well down from 2.9 years at end December 2001, while the lowest exposure was in African-based mining companies at 1.3 years, down from 1.7 years previously.

[bluemoons]

"Wir Amerikaner handeln. Wir verschwenden unsere Zeit nicht mit Gerede."

von unserem Korrespontenten Bill Bonner

In den letzten Tagen haben mir einige Leser des Investor`s Daily per Email geschrieben, dass Ihnen meine Einstellung gegenüber dem Thema "Irak" nicht gefällt und dass Sie deshalb den Investor`s Daily abbestellen.

Einige Ausschnitte aus den Emails, die ich erhalten habe:

"Hoffentlich werden die Amerikaner auf ihrem Weg in den Irak ein paar Bomben über ihrem Büro abwerfen ..."

"Sie sollten besser zurück in die USA gehen (ich arbeite und lebe seit ein paar Jahren in Frankreich) ... die Sozialisten haben ihr Gehirn beeinflusst ... Sie Linker!" (Ich bin noch nie zuvor so betitelt worden ...)

Zurzeit passieren verrückte und gefährliche Dinge. In der Vergangenheit sind die Amerikaner widerwillig in den Krieg gezogen; jetzt scheinen sie sich auf den Krieg zu freuen. Und fast der gesamte Rest der Welt scheint gegen Krieg zu sein.

Der Dollar ist zuletzt wieder gestiegen ... und der Goldpreis fiel deutlich zurück.

Die Aktien sind abgehoben. Die Investoren sind in Panik verfallen – aber in die falsche Richtung! Es gab Kaufpanik, Dow Jones und Nasdaq zogen letzte Woche deutlich an.

Die Entwicklung des Dow Jones hängt letztlich von der Wirtschaftslage ab. Und die Wirtschaftslage hängt vom Dollar ab ... und dem Vertrauen, das der Rest der Welt in den Dollar hat. Zumindest kurzfristig scheint der Dollarkurs an das Thema "Irakkrieg" geknüpft zu sein, weshalb es kurzfristig durchaus etwas aufwärts gehen kann. Ich denke allerdings, dass der Dollar langfristig fallen muss ... und auf lange Sicht untergehen wird. Schließlich sind alle Papierwährungen früher oder später in der Wertlosigkeit untergegangen.

Kurzfristig mag es überraschende Kurssprünge geben. Die Kriegsnachrichten scheinen jetzt die Stimmung der Investoren zu bestimmen. An einem Tag können schlechte News den Dollar und den Dow Jones in den Keller schicken ... am nächsten Tag können Gerüchte dazu führen, dass beide nach oben schießen.

Ob es uns gefällt oder nicht – wir haben einen Krieg vor uns, den man bei der Analyse der Finanzmärkte berücksichtigen muss.

Vertrauen in den Dollar zu haben, bedeutet, Vertrauen in die Zukunft der USA zu haben ... und Zukunft in die amerikanische Wirtschaft und das amerikanische Wirtschaftssystem. Vor drei Jahren hatten die Amerikaner fast unbegrenztes Vertrauen in diese Dinge und in den Aktienmarkt; mir hingegen gefiel die Spekulationsblase am Aktienmarkt schon vor ihrem Platzen nicht. Die Aktienkurse basierten damals auf Illusionen und Lügen – das schrieb ich damals. Viele Investoren wollten damals davon nichts hören.

Auch damals bekam ich viele Beschwerdebriefe.

Jetzt erhalte ich diese Beschwerdebriefe, weil die Investoren nichts davon hören wollen, wenn man ihr grenzenloses Vertrauen in die amerikanische militärische Überlegenheit, den Dollar oder den amerikanischen Konsumentenkapitalismus ankratzt. Die Zuversicht der Leute hat sich vom Aktienmarkt zu Waffen bewegt ... von der Komödie der Märkte zur Tragödie der Politik. Die Leute reden jetzt so gerne über Krieg, wie sie vor 3 Jahren über Aktien geredet haben. Die Amerikaner scheinen zu denken, dass die US-Militärmacht nicht nur ihr Land beschützen kann, sondern auch den Dollar und ihre Volkswirtschaft.

Wird das Kriegsende zu einem Anstieg des Dollarkurses führen? Wird die Welt ohne Saddam Hussein ein besserer Platz sein? Die Leute, die sich jetzt bei mir beschweren, scheinen die Antworten zu wissen. Für sie ist es offensichtlich, dass der Krieg gegen den Irak erfolgreich sein wird – genauso wie es vor 3 Jahren offensichtlich zu sein schien, dass die Aktienkurse immer steigen werden.

Ich wünschte, auch ich könnte in die Zukunft sehen ... aber bis jetzt bin ich nicht hinter dieses Geheimnis gekommen. Deshalb muss ich mich auf die Geschichte berufen, um Beispiele für vergleichbare Entwicklungen zu finden ... und alte Regeln und Richtlinien für mein eigenes Verhalten aufstellen zu können. Die habe ich gefunden: Ich kaufe keine Aktien, wenn sie hoch bewertet sind; ich sage bitte und danke; und ich greife niemals als erster an.

Aber wir leben in verrückten Zeiten. Sogar diese drei Richtlinien werden von vielen Leuten derzeit als Verrat bezeichnet.

Ein Amerikaner schrieb mir: "Wir Amerikaner handeln. Wir verschwenden unsere Zeit nicht mit Gerede, wie die Franzosen."

Aber die Bevorzugung von schnellem Handeln gegenüber "Gerede" ist wahrscheinlich nicht genetisch bedingt, sondern temporär. Auch die Franzosen gaben einmal dem sofortigen Handeln den Vorzug – in der Napoleonischen Ära. "Kühnheit, mehr Kühnheit, immer Kühnheit", so Danton zu den französischen Generälen 1792. Innerhalb weniger Jahre waren die Leichen kühner französischer Soldaten überall in Europa verstreut. Dann kam der Deutsch-Französische Krieg von 1870/71 – und die Franzosen bevorzugten immer noch das "schnelle Handeln". Es waren die Franzosen, die angriffen – nicht die Preußen. Und wieder einmal lagen ihre schönen Leichen verstreut auf dem Weg von Paris bis zur belgischen Grenze. Die Preußen umzingelten innerhalb relativ kurzer Zeit Paris; die Pariser mussten Katzen, Hunde und Ratten essen, bevor sie schließlich kapitulierten.

Was haben die Franzosen daraus gelernt? Die Doktrin des "Elan" kam auf. Colonel Granmaison schrieb dazu: "In der Offensive ist die Dummheit die beste Versicherung."

Zu Beginn des 1. Weltkriegs konnten die Franzosen diese neue Taktik ausprobieren. Ich habe vor ein paar Monaten mit einem alten Franzosen zu Abend gegessen – Monsieur Junot –, der von seinem Onkel erzählte:

"Er attackierte hoch zu Pferd mit gezogenem Säbel ... die deutschen Reihen mit Maschinengewehren!"

Alistair Horne schrieb über die Geschichte dieser Periode: "Niemals zuvor hielten die Maschinengewehre so reiche Ernte. Die französischen Schlachtfelder tränkten sich blutrot. Die imposanten Kürassiere zu Pferd, mit golden glänzenden Brustplatten, wurden einfach hoffnungslos niedergemäht. Es war fürchterlich, und fürchterlich vorhersehbar ... dieser grandiose, wahnsinnige Mut von 1914 ..."

Im ersten Kriegsjahr verloren die Franzosen mehr Soldaten als die USA in beiden Weltkriegen zusammen. Die Franzosen begannen nachzudenken ... und zu reden ...

Eines Tages werden das auch die Amerikaner tun. Natürlich werden bis dahin noch viele Jahre vergehen ...

*** George Soros schrieb in der Financial Times:

"Ich sehe eine Parallele zwischen dem Machtstreben der Bush-Administration und dem Boom und Untergang der Spekulationsblase am Aktienmarkt. Spekulationsblasen wachsen nicht nur durch Luft. Sie haben in der Realität eine solide Basis, aber diese Basis wird durch Fehleinschätzungen überbewertet. In diesem Fall ist die Realität die dominante Position der USA, aber das Streben nach umfassender Weltherrschaft ist das falsche Konzept. Die Realität kann die Fehleinschätzung korrigieren, aber genauso kann auch die Lücke zwischen der Realität und der Fehleinschätzung untragbar werden. Je später die Korrektur der Fehleinschätzung kommt, desto verheerender sind die Konsequenzen."

"Dieser Ablauf der Ereignisse scheint unausweichlich zu sein, ( ...) aber je früher dieser Prozess der Korrektur der Fehleinschätzungen beendet wird, desto besser. Präsident Bush kam an die Macht, und bis zum 11. September 2001 hatte er keinen klar definierten Feind. Die Attacke vom 11. September veränderte alles. Terrorismus ist der ideale Feind. Er ist unsichtbar und kann deshalb niemals verschwinden. Ein Feind, der eine ernste und anerkannte Bedrohung darstellt, kann eine Nation zusammenhalten. ( ...) Die Bush-Administration fördert diese Angst noch, weil sie die Nation hinter dem Präsidenten zusammenreiht. Seit Franklin D. Roosevelt hat sich viel geändert. Roosevelt meinte: `Wir haben nichts zu fürchten als die Furcht selbst.`"

*** Willkommen in der Zukunft. Ein argentinischer Präsidentschaftskandidat hat vorgeschlagen, den argentinischen Peso weder an den Dollar noch an den Euro zu koppeln – sondern ans Gold.

_______________________________________________________

Rohstoffpreise, Wachstum und Inflation

von Andrew Kashdan

Die US-Wirtschaft, einst der Wachstumsmotor der Welt, stottert. Das führt dazu, dass die meisten Ökonomen ihre Prognosen einer starken, selbstlaufenden Erholung (die schon hätte beginnen sollen) revidieren. Die Frage, die ich stelle, lautet: "Können die Rohstoffpreise in diesem Umfeld weiter steigen?" Um meine Antwort vorwegzunehmen: Ja.

Es ist klar, dass langfristig die Rohstoffpreise bei starkem Wirtschaftswachstum steigen und bei schwachem Wirtschaftswachstum fallen. Aber der der Index der Rohstoffpreise folgt eher dem nominalen Bruttoinlandsprodukt (BIP) als dem realen BIP. Das ist nicht allzu überraschend, denn der Rohstoffpreisindex misst ja den Preis eines Korbs von Rohostoffen. Mit anderen Worten: Die Inflation bestimmt die Rohstoffpreise stärker als das eigentliche Wirtschaftswachstum.

So hatten die steigenden Rohstoffpreise im letzten Jahr nur wenig mit dem Wirtschaftswachstum zu tun. In den letzten Quartalen hat sich das Wirtschaftswachstum laut dem "Economic Cycle Research Institute" abgeschwächt. Dennoch sind die Rohstoffpreise weiter angezogen, unabhängig von den Wachstumsaussichten der Wirtschaft. Seit Jahresbeginn hat der Rohstoffpreisindex fast 30 % zugelegt. Gleichzeitig sind sowohl die tatsächliche als auch die erwartete Inflationsrate gestiegen. Steigende Inflation scheint die Botschaft der steigenden Rohstoffpreise zu sein.

Eine einzige Zentralbank hat auf die Gefahren einer drohenden Inflation bereits reagiert. Übrigens seit längerem: Die kanadische Zentralbank hat ihre Leitzinsen bereits um 1/4 Prozentpunkt erhöht, auf 3,25 %. Anfang 2002 standen sie noch bei 2,00 %. Die kanadische Inflationsrate liegt bei 4,5 % und damit auf 12-Monats-Hoch, größtenteils dank der gestiegenen Öl- und Gaspreise.

Die derzeitige Rally bei den Rohstoffpreisen scheint eher das Wiederauferstehen der Inflation als das Wiederanziehen der Weltwirtschaft widerzuspiegeln. Und wenn sich der Fed-Gouverneur Ben Bernanke mit seinen Ansichten durchsetzen kann – er will die "Notenpresse" anwerfen, um die Deflation zu bekämpfen – dann kann die Rally bei den Rohstoffpreisen noch weit laufen. Ein Aspekt der derzeitigen Rohstoffpreis-Rally ist von vielen gar nicht wahrgenommen worden: Es ist nicht nur der Ölpreis, der steigt. Fast alle Rohstoffpreise ziehen deutlich an.

Merkwürdigerweise haben nur wenige Rohstoffaktien diesen Preisanstieg nachvollzogen. Und diese bizarre Divergenz könnte eine außergewöhnliche Investmentgelegenheit sein, sogar für die Vorsichtigsten unter den Rohstoffpreis-Bullen. Wenn man der Rohstoffpreis-Rally vertrauen kann, dann gibt es zahlreiche Rohstoffaktien, die man kaufen sollte.

Nehmen wir nur einmal die Aktien aus dem Sektor Erdgas. Die Erdgas-Preise sind in den letzten 18 Monaten um 260 % explodiert – im gleichen Zeitraum ist der Index der Erdgas-Aktien um 8 % gefallen! Ein ähnliches Muster sieht man am Ölmarkt. Seit Ende 2001 ist der Index der Ölaktien per saldo gefallen, trotz des deutlichen Ölpreisanstiegs.

Auch der Index der Goldminenaktien hat seit seinem Top im Mai 2002 mehr als 14 % abgegeben, während der Goldpreis seitdem trotz des jüngsten Rückgangs immer noch 7 % zugelegt hat. Der Fondsmanager Paul Stuka schrieb dazu im Barrons-Magazin: "Das ist eine reale historische Anomalie, denn die Goldminenaktien sollten eigentlich sogar 2 bis 3 Mal so schnell wie das Edelmetall selbst steigen." Leider ist der Goldpreis im letzten Monat oder so um 5 % gefallen, während der Index Goldminenaktien um 12 % zurückgekommen ist.

Die Underperformance der Rohstoff-Aktien diskontiert das "worst-case"-Szenario. Das ist witzig; denn ich denke, dass das "best-case"-Szenario für die Rohstoffe wahrscheinlicher ist. Ein temporärer Rückgang der Gaspreise wäre angesichts der jüngsten Rally nicht überraschend. Aber ich denke, dass wir es hier mit einem richtigen Bullenmarkt zu tun haben. Deshalb denke ich, dass die Erdgas-Aktien zu billig sind, da sie das "worst-case"-Szenario einpreisen. Das "worst-case"-Szenario hingegen ist meiner Meinung nach höchst unwahrscheinlich.

Die schlechte Performance dieser Aktien ist deshalb eine goldene Gelegenheit. Die Investoren haben die Chance, mit großen Discounts in einen boomenden Bullenmarkt einzusteigen. Angesichts der niedrigen Bewertungen der Rohstoffaktien und der inflationären Gefahren sowie einer langfristig abzusehenden Knappheit an Rohstoffen sollte die "Rohstoff-Party" erst beginnen ...

investorverlag.de

[ThaiGuru]

1:08p ET Monday, March 17, 2003

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

There`s a lot of gold market commentary at CBSMarketWatch
today.

Thom Calandra speculates favorably on the gold price, as
forecast by the performance of various currencies:

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid={FF6B9CEB-B73…
8F1C-66CC3324C8E7}&siteid=mktw&dist=nbs" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid={FF6B9CEB-B73…
8F1C-66CC3324C8E7}&siteid=mktw&dist=nbs

Or try this abbreviated link:

http://ls.shapebyforce.com/sbf/134

And Peter Brimelow finds gold market timers still convinced that it`s a bull market:

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B8D1299EA%2…
2D4BB9%2DB27D%2DD19400F1CB19%7D&siteid=mktw" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B8D1299EA%2…
2D4BB9%2DB27D%2DD19400F1CB19%7D&siteid=mktw

Or try this abbreviated link:

http://ls.shapebyforce.com/sbf/135

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

[ThaiGuru]

March 17 – Gold $336.50 up 50 cents – Silver $4.44 down 9 cents

"All war must be just the killing of strangers against whom you feel no personal animosity; strangers whom, in other circumstances, you would help if you found them in trouble, and who would help you if you needed it..." Mark Twain

The PTT Roars Its Blarney on St. Patrick’s Day

The financial trading market action in the US is sick, almost beyond belief. As we came in today, the NIKKEI dropped into new low ground at 7871, down 135. Hong Kong also closed with big losses. The dollar was lower by a good amount as the world’s stock markets were under considerable pressure. Gold was limit up in Japan for awhile (up $9 from the US close) and up $6.70 before the US stock market opened. What was interesting about this is the summit on Sunday was the most predictable, scripted one on record. There was not one surprise, yet the markets were significantly moved in overseas trading as war came closer to reality.

That was over there. We then come to a different planet in its own trading universe: the US financial markets. Most countries do not have a Gestapo-like Working Group on Financial Markets (PPT) that inhibit the free market system we Americans so fondly say we cherish. This goon squad regulates the financial markets through such banks as Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan Chase to their own liking. They do what they please, when they please and continually steal your hard-earned money. It is all done for elitist bullion banks and THE STATE. Little guy be damned.

It didn’t take the PPT long to put the fix in again, as they have done so often the past week. From The Café’s Sarge this morning:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^XAU&d=c&k=c1&c=^dji&a=v&p=s&t=…

Operations began at 9:45, as usual. 300 point rally from the low on the DOW is just around the corner. Sell gold, buy index futures.

Gold was up $6.60 and the Dow was 70 lower right after the opening. Then BOOM! Gold was hit by The Gold Cartel at the exact same time the stock market futures were bought by the PPT. The supposed reason for the dramatic turn of events was the announcement President Bush was going to speak to the nation tonight at 8 PM. Is there anyone out there with a brain more potent than that of a grapefruit that did not believe the President was going to address the nation this evening?

Today’s rally was no different than the last three on the baseless Bin Laden/Iraq surrender rumors. The PPT needed cover, so they acted accordingly to their own demented criteria, timing their move to the Presidential speech announcement and spreading THE BLARNEY that was the reason for the stock market rally.

Can their activity be anymore transparent? Doesn’t anyone ever ask why this simultaneous kind of dramatic trading action ONLY happens in the US and not in overseas markets? It’s hard for me to believe that the investing world can’t be quietly catching on. As they do, few will want to invest in the US as time goes on. It is a sham. The dollar will be crushed in time, our stock market will be brutalized.

The PPT knows price action makes market commentary. The rah rahs will be out extolling why the start of the war is such bliss for the US economy, now that they goosed the stock market. The market may go up a bit more, but eventually the ills The Working Group on Financial Markets has created in the past is going to catch up to the stock market and it WILL TANK! Maybe then these bums will be found out and seriously put in their place. Unfortunately, by that time, most Americans will have lost a good amount of their retirement income in their 401K plans.

JP Morgan Chase and Goldman Sachs were the gold trashers, along with some other bullion banks (big surprise). The good news is they could not close gold lower on the day no matter how hard they tried. Gold was down $1.70 at one point, but rallied back near the close.

The cabal continues to maintain its ironfisted control of silver. Have no idea how they are doing it, but it is clear as day it is them. Copper closed up $1.70 at $77.15, as we prepare for war. Yet, silver is crushed!

The following pot pourri commentary was written before the US stock market opened:

What’s with this blue tie thing? Bush always wears one and so did England’s Blair and Spain’s Asnar. Maybe it is a secret signal for war, signaling blue times ahead?

President Bush revealed how card games are played in Texas. When you say show me your cards it means if the asker doesn’t like the cards he sees, he quits the game and takes his chips back.

President Bush also defined the meaning of Texas-style diplomacy. It’s my way or the highway; therefore when setting up summits on diplomacy, only invite those that will obsequiously agree with you. Sounds a bit like the way the Russian Communists used to do their business.

What I wouldn’t give to hear this just one time on CNBC:

Hello folks, this is Marie Bartuomo. This morning stock futures are being pummeled in overseas trading and we are do much lower here on our opening. But, never fear folks, pay little attention to my opening call on Squawk Box because the Plunge Protection team will make sure there is no panic in the market, will support it during the day and make sure the close is a grand one.
Followed by:
Gold was up $9 during Japanese trading hours and is now $6.60 higher, but don’t pay any attention to that either. The Gold Cartel will instruct the massively short and privileged New York bullion banks to take gold down as soon as they prop up the Dow. Gold is limited to $6/$7 gains in the US, so this ought to be out about it for the day.

***

Yep, the US financial markets are pretty sick when I can write that right BEFORE the 9:30 opening of the stock market and it happens almost as per my script.

One has to wonder what’s up with Tony Blair and his ardent pro-war stance? Most of England is against the war, as is a good number of his own Labor Party. Now this today:

"Robin Cook (leader of the House of Commons) quit as a U.K. cabinet minister, protesting Prime Minister Tony Blair`s support for the U.S. confrontation with Iraq and leaving the British leader facing a crisis in his ruling Labour Party."

This is the way I see it. Blair is bought and paid for by the British/US big money/elitists of the world, just like George Bush is. That crowd needs to secure the Iraq oil fields to keep the western economies from failing. Blair dare not go against them. He has to be desperately afraid of crossing them.

It all fits. Remember how cozy Blair and Clinton were? That made some sense as their parties have much in common. That is not the case with Bush and his conservatives.

What they do have in common is the money behind their powerful position. I recall a Clinton phrase that went something like, " I didn’t realize I wouldn’t be running things as President." President Clinton inferred he received marching orders. I suggest the same is true with Blair. He is receiving his orders from the same crowd.

The connection: money/gold. The British gold auction announcement of May 1999 is the linkage event. It made no sense for the Brits to do what they did and in the manner in which they sold their gold (the $280 per ounce average price of their gold sale has cost them a bundle already). It does make sense when related to The Gold Cartel and the big banking powers. Gold was about to explode after the IMF gold sale idea was killed by the US Congress. The bullion banks were desperate for physical gold to calm things down. Saved by the BRITISH BELL!

When is the world going to wake up to The Gold Cartel and their nefarious ways? Blair has sold his soul to them and it will cost him. Seems to me he won’t be around much longer.

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $8.44, PM $8.36, with world gold at $344 and $340.75. Massively above legal import point. India was closed on Friday: world gold today was much where is was on Thursday – but premiums are some $3 higher. Reuters carries a story this morning from Bombay commenting on the strength of Indian buying. As usual, they find a dealer willing to echo conventional Western opinion, but with an important extra detail:

""Traders are cautiously buying as they know that prices will crash if there is no war. But at the same time, they want to have some quantity in hand to run the business for about a week," a trader said. ".

In other words, buying pressure at these prices from the retail public is forcing these intermediaries to replenish inventory. Keeping gold down at these levels will call for a great deal of physical.

Those who have had the misfortune to watch today’s markets from early in the Asian day have suffered a schizophrenic experience. The same news – an increase in certainty of an American attack on Iraq - which has caused euphoria in America caused little less than panic in the Far East. Stock markets wilted, the dollar was pressured, and a sudden and violent rally in gold surprised many observers, including JP Morgan’s Technical Research which was blasted out of a $337.75 short/stop@ $341 position:

"Got this one wrong Friday, with the move back through 341 scuppering plans for an immediate decline under 330 towards 326 targets."

Which, at the least, illustrates the abruptness of the turn.

TOCOM itself exploded from the opening with buying by the public triggering short covering by others: prices were up the limit (40 yen) almost all afternoon, presumably leaving much public appetite unslaked. On constrained volume equal to 25,462 Comex lots open interest rose the equivalent of 659 Comex contracts. At the close $US gold was $8.25 above the NY Friday close at $344.25. (On Friday NY traded 37,087 contracts: open interest fell only 423 lots: more shorts?)

To the surprise of no experienced observer, gold in the early NY day was hit with another sudden barrage of unrestrained selling such has drawn comment on several days recently.

Several thoughts arise from this blinding contrast in time zone behavior, some of them not conducive to faith in the integrity of Financial Markets.

From the particular point of view of gold, however, it is probably crucial to recognize that not everyone in the world finds the prospect of a violent unrestrained America appealing.

Who knows what targets some enterprising domestic constituency might succeed in establishing next? (A quietening thought for an Englishman writing on St. Patrick’s Day.)

From this perspective, increased bullion accumulation overseas seems inevitable.

JB

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

The following was written by SOMEONE IN THE KNOW in the investment industry and sent out to colleagues:

FREE MARKETS ?

The theory about government intervention into equities by the Working Group on Financial Markets is, in the opinion of many not letting the markets act in the manner they should. This sort of financial war room roundtable consists of the Secretary of the Treasury and the chairmen of the Federal Reserve Board, the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. According to staff writer Brett D. Fromson of the Washington Post, in an article first published in 02.23.87, each federal agency with a seat at the table of the Working Group has a confidential plan. "At the SEC", "the plan is officially known as the Executive Directory for Market Contingencies". It is designed to keep investors from running for the door, decreasing market liquidity and keeping the financial markets propped up until investors come to their senses. Many are convinced that this plan is now being used to prop up the markets through investing by the government directly. The activity is originated in two main brokerages, Merrill Lynch and Goldman Sachs.

Sources in Fromson`s article suggested various scenarios in which the Group would act. A panicky flight by mutual fund shareholders, chaos in the global payment, settlement and clearance systems and a breakdown in international coordination among central banks, finance ministries and securities regulators would definitely get the group`s attention. In todays market, more than a few are convinced that this Group has by Presidential order kept the market from dropping off the edge in the face of multiple sources of bad news. In an article published by Barrie A. Wigmore entitled , The New York Stock Exchange, "The Crash and the Aftermath" several scenarios were laid out as a result of market slides.

After the market crashed on Oct. 29, 1929:

The Federal Reserve provided loans and credit to financial systems.

President Hoover met with business, labor and farm organizations to encourage capital spending and discourage layoffs; he also promised higher tariffs.

Federal income taxes were reduced by 1 percent by the end of the year.

After the market dropped 22.6 percent on Oct. 19, 1987, the Federal Reserve:

Encouraged the New York Stock Exchange to stay open.
Encouraged big commercial banks not to pull loans to major Wall Street houses.

Kept open a subsidiary of Continental Illinois Bank that was the largest lender to the commodity trading houses in Chicago.

Flooded the banking system with money to meet financial obligations.

Announced it was ready to extend loans to important financial institutions.

What would happen today during a stock drop would depend on the particulars. Here are current guidelines:

If the Dow Jones industrial average falls 350 points within a trading day, NYSE trading would be halted for 30 minutes.

If the DJIA falls another 200 points that day, trading would stop for one hour.

If the market declines more than 550 points in a day, no further restrictions would be applied.

Whether this team would react to long slow slides into the abyss is not really spelled out. The players and the veil of secrecy that it wraps around itself are right in line with the current administration`s policies.

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The DOW (8141, up 281) and the DOG (1391, up 51 soared). If it was because of the nearing of the war, why didn’t they open up sharply higher? Thanks to the PPT, the DOW has rallied 10% off its low in three trading sessions. The bulls had best enjoy the their hoopla over war, because it is going to be a brief party. There are just too many serious economic issues that must be worked out before the stock market is going anywhere of meaning to the upside. That will take a great deal of time.

DEBT, DEBT, DEBT is the most serious problem facing world economies:

New York, March 17 (Bloomberg) -- Spiegel Inc., owner of the 98-year-old Spiegel catalog, filed for bankruptcy protection to reduce $1.7 billion in debt it accumulated as sales fell and credit-card customers defaulted on payments.

Sao Paulo, March 17 (Bloomberg) -- Cia. Energetica de Sao Paulo, the state-owned power generator for Brazil`s biggest city, will reschedule almost $700 million of debt payments, a sign of the troubles facing the nation`s electricity industry after the currency tumbled and utility rates fell.

Vancouver’s Don Graham points out:

"I have always used Bill Gross as my main reference point when thinking about the stock market. Bill Gross is chief manager of PIMCO. He manages over $70 Billion worth of bonds and for 29 years has better than a 10% return on his fund. He stated over the weekend that the place to be is not in equity funds. He firmly believes that the DOW will yet settle at 5000 the S&P at 650 because dividend yields are still too low, p/e ratios still too high and real returns on stocks still far too low. This is devastating news because many fund managers and serious investors think of him as a guru in themarkets."

Gross was featured on the cover of Barron’s over the weekend. I didn’t spend much time after the early going listening to CNBC. Was it talked about much? I bet not.

The sentiments of a number of Cafe members are expressed in this note from a Canadian:

Hi Bill - It`s hard to be sickened more than I am by the way things are, but the obscene surge in the Dow did it. People around the world are beginning to genuinely hate America and the picture of Wall Street and American investors "celebrating" the decision for war by buying stocks will only confirm the picture of America as an immoral, bloodthirsty monster. Barb

The following is from a recently issues report on gold producer hedging:

Cumulative hedging activities of 84 gold producers, representing 66% of global output – fell further in the fourth quarter of 2002, declining by 4.9 Moz (153 tonnes) to total 80.9 Moz (2,515t). The total fall during 2002 was a massive 14.8 Moz (459t), according to the latest issue of the Gold Hedging Indicator (GHI), which is produced by Haliburton Mineral Services and Virtual Metals Research and Consulting and is sponsored by NM Rothschild & Sons Limited. To put it into context, this reduction in hedging more than offsets the amount of central bank gold sold during 2002 under the terms of the European Gold Agreement. The recent strong climb in the gold price together with low interest rates have considerably weakened the propensity of gold producers to lock in prices through hedging, and gold has again become more of a ‘pure’ price play for investors. –END-

In other words, the gold producers bought back 59 more tonnes than the European central banks sold! With a natural supply demand difference of around 1500 tonnes per year, who supplied almost that amount of gold to keep the gold price from flying? The Gold Cartel, of course. This hedging report is just one more piece of evidence that GATA has been right all along.

This is a real surprise. Barclay’s was the most bearish of all the bullion banks for years. Really bearish. Perhaps they have had a change of heart, or more appropriately, they know the rig is on its way out:

Barclays to launch bonds linked to gold price

Source: The Sunday Telegraph - London
Publication date: 2003-03-16

BARCLAYS Bank is to take advantage of the current enthusiasm for investing in gold by launching guaranteed bonds linked to movements in the gold price.

Gold, a traditional safe haven in times of uncertainty, has been in huge demand over the past three years as investors sought to avoid the volatile equity markets. In 1999 the price sank below $250 but, by last month, it had reached a six-year high of $388.

The bank said its high net-worth customers had expressed a growing interest in commodity-linked investments such as gold in light of the Iraq crisis and turbulent stock markets.

Details have yet to be finalised but the bond is likely to be similar to a product that has been piloted among a small number of Premier account customers.

This bond promises to pay a one-off return of 10 per cent if the gold price has risen by 8.5 per cent over its six-month term. Whatever happens to the gold price, investors are guaranteed to get back all of their original investment.

Barclays may also issue a separate bond that pays out if gold prices fall by a specified amount. Last Thursday, gold fell to an 11- week low of $334 as equity markets rebounded from Wednesday`s sharp falls.

The bonds, due to be launched next month, will be offered to 600,000 Premier Banking customers, who earn more than pounds 60,000 a year.

-END-

The gold shares backed off a bit after a firmer opening. The XAU slipped .68 to 64.95 and the HUI fell .86 to 120.77. That should not surprise after the stunning market reversals of the day. They still remain screaming buys. The Gold Cartel is holding back the gold tide for the moment, but the US has managed to tick off practically the entire world. The Iraq war is going to create more uncertainty than ever before. Financial markets will become more tentative and nervous than ever. More and more investors are going to turn to gold. The real gold rush is about to begin.

Happy Saint Patrick’s Day

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

Auf ein Neues! Oder wem geht der Schnauf zuerst aus, der physischen Nachfrage nach Gold, oder dem Gold Cabal mit JMP und FED an der Spitze?

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.n-tv.de/2250668.html?tpl=main&seite=

US Senator Warner: Bush gibt Saddam 48-Stunden-Frist!

[manfred1_I]

Wenn die FED jetzt dicht gemacht hat, dann müsste
doch für Gold der Weg frei sein, oder?
Vielleicht war das auch nur eine Ente mit der FED.
Auf jeden Fall lief heute Mittag die Meldung
bei Bloomberg.
Oder die mussten die Sache wieder aus dem Band
herausnehmen, wer weiß????

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.usagold.com

The Afternoon Gold Report...

by Jon Warner

March 18, 2003 (usagold.com)

New York spot gold settled higher at $337.70 an ounce up 70 cents an ounce from yesterday’s close. "The markets are obviously discounting a quick, successful campaign and if that materialises gold can go down maybe another $10 or so," said David Rinehimer, head of Commodities Research at Salomon Smith Barney in New York. "But considering at $330 we`re back to pretty much the top of the range we were in most of last year, most of the safe haven premium is already out of the market." Gold analyst David Meger at Alaron Trading in Chicago said, "Now that this thing looms closer you are seeing that short covering coming in off those lows." He said that even though the market believed Iraq would be defeated swiftly, it was nervous about potential terrorist retaliation. "If that`s the case, obviously you are going to see that return of safe-haven buying to the gold market," he said. Donald Coxe of Harris Investment Management in Chicago reckons that the dollar will fall further, but only when the yen and the euro stop propping it up. China’s renminbi, says Coxe, is the only heavyweight alternative to the dollar, but it is presently excluded from the US dollar index and China is spending a lot of money on suppressing it. This cannot go on for ever and when it floats the renminbi could double. As a result he sees gold moving up towards $500/oz.

“We are in the early stages of a major bull market in gold,” claimed Coxe, “and institutional investors still haven’t cottoned on to it.”

London gold was fixed this afternoon at $338.80 an ounce, up from $334.90 an ounce at the morning fixing. "Gold climbed quickly to $340 as President Bush gave his speech but slipped lower as he added that military action would commence `at a time of our choosing`, as traders interpreted this to be a further extension to the timescale," said James Moore, metals analyst at TheBulliondesk.com. Kevin Crisp, precious metals analyst at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein, said the $320 level was a very strong floor. "The ultimate driving force will be the economic situation ...whether the dollar continues to weaken, employment and equities. If they continue to disappoint, gold will gain more and more friends," said Simon Weeks, bullion director at Scotiamocatta. Martin Squires, analyst with JP Morgan said: "I still think there is a high degree of uncertainty out there. Liquidity is not there and you are going to see prices jumping around" and "along with that you still have the spectre of heightened terrorist alerts and North Korea and there`s no guarantee that under the best case scenario that equities and the dollar skyrocket," Rinehimer said. "I certainly don`t think we`re going down to the low $300 level -- $10-$20 on the downside depending on how this whole war scenario plays out." Analyst Ross Norman at TheBullionDesk.com said: "Gold has stabilised after volatility in recent sessions which reflected moves in the US dollar." He said the general strength in gold recently was in part due to weakness in the US dollar, but also on the back of "good physical buying." He added, "however, the flows in gold have been very small and trading is very light."

Jessica Cross, CE of Virtual Metals, said yesterday the recent bull-run in gold has helped clarify the strategies of gold producers, as objectively identified from the statistics contained in the Gold Hedging Indicator (GHI), which is produced by Haliburton Mineral Services and Virtual Metals Research and Consulting and is sponsored by NM Rothschild & Sons Limited. “We are perhaps witnessing a seismic shift in the nature of gold mining companies, which in the last decade have come to be associated with sophisticated financial engineering, deploying derivatives to protect themselves against seriously and successively weak gold prices,” she said. “Concurrent with the recent US dollar price strength of gold, gold mining companies have been unwinding their hedge books; this in turn has helped convince western-based investors that the bull run may be more than a flash in the pan”.

Earlier spot gold closed at $337.00 an ounce on Tuesday in Hong Kong, down $7.00 from Monday`s close of $344.00. "Bush has confirmed that the United States is 48 hours away from starting an invasion and that means the end of uncertainty for the market is near," said David Thurtell, commodities strategist at Commonwealth Bank in Sydney. "No market likes uncertainty." Also, "a lot of people in our time zone got the market wrong. No one knows what is happening. Look, last Friday we traded at a new low for this year," said Paul Lee, director of precious metals at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein in Sydney. "The true test of the strength of gold will come when the war is over and Saddam is gone," Lee said. "Everything depends on the equity market," a dealer with a big Japanese trading house said. "The next matter is when the U.S. will reach Baghdad. The main scenario is 48 hours. So if it takes a little bit longer, or say there`s an oil fire or that kind of thing, (that would hurt stocks) and then that would help to boost gold." Gold and other financial markets will remain on tenterhooks over the next 48 hours, the time limit U.S. President George W. Bush has given the Iraqi leader to leave the country. "The speech was within the market`s expectations, that is why we have seen this calm reaction," said Gordon Cheung, director at Mitsui Bussan Precious Metals in Hong Kong. "I think that even if we start fighting, it will have little impact on the market," Cheung said. With these types of concerns, there were signs of fresh buying, including new players in the market, in New York on Monday, but the market refused to rally, Cheung added. "One uncertainty for the dollar has been cleared with a war likely to happen soon, but it is still hard to buy the dollar following a recent series of poor economic data," said Motoshi Imura, senior manager of the foreign exchange and treasury division at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi. "We still cannot be too optimistic about the dollar`s outlook."


GEOPOLITICAL NEWS:

U.N. weapons inspectors pulled out of Iraq on Tuesday and U.S. forces prepared to invade after President Bush gave Saddam Hussein 48 hours to flee the country. Defying U.N. allies and dividing world opinion, Bush defended Washington`s right to wage what he portrayed as a pre-emptive war against September 11-style terrorism and promised to bring prosperity and democracy to the Iraqi people.

The Iraqi leadership has rejected a U.S. ultimatum that President Saddam Hussein should go into exile and says the country is ready to repel any invaders, Iraqi state television said on Tuesday. Earlier Saddam Hussein`s son on Tuesday rejected a U.S. ultimatum to the Iraqi leader to flee the country, vowing to fight the invasion that President Bush said could start in less than 48 hours. "The wives and mothers of those Americans who will fight us will weep blood, not tears," elder son Uday said in a statement that appeared to kill off all hope that war might be averted.

Secretary of State Colin Powell said on Tuesday there was a coalition of about 45 nations that support taking military action against Iraq, one third of which prefer not to be named. "We now have a coalition of the willing that includes some 30 nations who have publicly said they could be included in such a listing," Powell told reporters. "There are 15 other nations who for one reason or another do not yet wish to be publicly named but will be supporting the coalition."

The U.S. government put the country on the second-highest level of security alert on Monday and warned of possible attacks against the United States if the country takes military action against Iraq. Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge announced the increase in the color-coded terror-alert level to "orange," meaning a "high" risk of attack, minutes after President Bush told Iraqi President Saddam Hussein that he had 48 hours to go into exile to avoid war. "The intelligence community believes that terrorists will attempt multiple attacks against U.S. and coalition targets worldwide in the event of a U.S-led military campaign against Saddam Hussein," Ridge said.

A Yemeni man shot and killed an American, a Canadian and a Yemeni working on a rig run by a U.S. oil firm in the Arab state on Tuesday, and then killed himself, a Yemeni official and the company said. Dallas-based Hunt Oil Co. said one employee was killed in the attacks allegedly carried out by a carpenter working on the premises in the oil-rich Marib province, east of Sanaa. Another Canadian was also wounded and was being flown to London, a Canadian Foreign Ministry spokesman said. The Yemeni official said the alleged assailant, Naji al-Kumaim, who committed suicide after the shooting, suffered from depression. Anti-U.S. sentiment has been running high in Arab countries over the imminent U.S.-led attack on Iraq and over Washington`s support for Israel.


ECONOMIC NEWS:

The FOMC decision on Tuesday kept the U.S. central bank`s trend-setting federal funds rate for overnight loans between banks at 1.25 percent, the level it has been at since last November. The U.S. Federal Reserve on Tuesday held interest rates at 1961 lows but signaled it was ready to cut them quickly if an Iraqi war takes an economic toll by saying it would practice "heightened surveillance." Former Federal Reserve governor Susan Phillips who appeared on CNBC suggested that the Fed is confused and does not know what to do given the geopolitical and economic environment.

The U.S. Commerce Department reported February housing starts fell 11 percent 1.622 million from a revised rate of 1.822 million in January. The drop in February housing starts was the biggest drop since January 1994 and monthly housing starts are at their lowest since April 2002.

Sales at major U.S. chain stores fell 1.3 percent in the week ended March 15 compared with the same week a year ago, the report said. Sales declined 1.2 percent in the two weeks ended March 15, compared with the previous month, Instinet Research said in its weekly Redbook report. "Sales continued to lose momentum during the second week of March," the report said. "There were reports that spring seasonal business had begun slowly."


Comment: Gold managed to post a gain as the U.S. dollar wavered slightly after making strong gains and the equities markets appeared to be losing steam ahead of the Federal Reserve interest rate decision. The major currencies weakened more than the U.S. dollar giving investors the impression of a strong dollar. Given the unsustainable record levels of U.S. government debt, rising trade deficits, a ballooning budget deficit, and dismal corporate earnings amid a weakening economy it is laughable to assume that the dollar could be strengthening. Foreigners are reducing their dollar investments and dollar denominated debt at an increasing rate. However, spin is everything in the media and on Wall Street and as long as investors believe that the U.S. dollar is gaining strength that is enough to put pressure on the price of dollar denominated assets such as oil and gold. The economic news was not especially compelling enough to attract investors but the euphoria over going to war appears to be the reason given by financial analysts for the stock markets “War Rally”. Wall Street is going by the old “play book” assuming that what happened during Desert Storm 12 years ago will play out once again. What the market is not taking into account is the additional U.S. debt load for this new adventure not to mention the costs of maintaining an occupation army and the rebuilding of a nation. This does not sound like a recipe for a stronger U.S. dollar. That said, in comparison to an untested currency (the Euro) and a nearly worthless currency (the Yen), the dollar doesn’t look too awful. Yet the dollar is no great prize given all that is working against it.

-Jon H. Warner-


E-Mail the current report to a friend or to yourself.
__________________________
Jon Warner is a professional geologist with nearly 24 years in exploration and project development in both mining and petroleum. Mr. Warner brings to the table an impressive industry contact list, thorough knowledge of the precious metals and energy markets as well as a practical understanding of gold`s role in the private investment portfolio. His strong knowledge in these fields has been demonstrated at the USAGOLD Discussion Forum where he posts on a regular basis as Black Blade.



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featuring round the clock gold news & commentary from the public.



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[ThaiGuru]

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/030317/175918_1.html

Press Release Source: Goldcorp

Goldcorp Declares Second Dividend Payment

Monday March 17, 5:06 pm ET

TORONTO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--March 17, 2003--GOLDCORP INC. (GG:NYSE) (G:TSX) is pleased to declare its second bi-monthly dividend payment for 2003 of $0.025 per share. Shareholders of record at the close of business on Thursday, April 10, 2003 will be entitled to receive payment of this dividend on Tuesday, April 15, 2003. This brings the total dividend payment for the year to $0.050 per share. Goldcorp intends to pay a total of $0.15 per share during 2003 in equal bi-monthly payments.

Goldcorp`s Red Lake Mine is the richest gold mine in the world. The Company is in excellent financial condition: has NO DEBT, a Large Treasury and Strong Cash Flow and Earnings. GOLDCORP is completely UNHEDGED and pays a dividend six times a year. Goldcorp`s shares are listed on the New York and Toronto Stock Exchanges under the trading symbols of GG and G, respectively and its options trade on the American Stock Exchange (AMEX), the Chicago Board of Options Exchange (CBOE) and the Pacific Stock Exchange (PCX) in the United States and on the Montreal Exchange (MX) in Canada.

Gold is better than Money, Goldcorp is Gold!

Corporate Office:
145 King Street West
Suite 2700
Toronto, Ontario
M5H 1J8
website: www.goldcorp.com



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Contact:
Goldcorp Inc.
Chris Bradbrook, 416/865-0326
416/361-5741 (FAX)
[e-mail]

[ThaiGuru]

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/030318/185271_1.html

Press Release Source: Coeur d`Alene Mines Corporation

Coeur Reports Record 4th Quarter and 2002 Silver Production, with 22 Percent Lower Cash Operating Costs

Tuesday March 18, 8:32 am ET

COEUR D`ALENE, Idaho--(BUSINESS WIRE)--March 18, 2003--Coeur d`Alene Mines Corporation (NYSE:CDE - News):
New South American operations driving improved performance
Majority of remaining indebtedness restructured

Highlights:

Record silver production of 4.9 million ounces during the fourth quarter, up 53 percent from a year ago at an average cash cost per ounce of $2.06.

Full year silver production a new record of 14.8 million ounces, up 36 percent over the previous year at an average cash cost per ounce of $2.89.

Fourth quarter gold production of 43,674 ounces, up 118 percent from last year`s period.

Full year gold production of 117,114 ounces, up 22 percent from previous year.

Silver cash costs down 22 percent for the year.

Cerro Bayo/Martha mines in South America commenced production and produced nearly two million ounces of silver in fourth quarter at cash cost of $0.05 per ounce, net of gold sold as a cash by-product.

Discovery of 13.9 million additional high-grade silver equivalent ounces of reserves and 8.3 million ounces of resources at Cerro Bayo and Martha, with average discovery cost of $0.07 per ounce.

Debt reduced 42 percent from previous year. Additional capital raised in February will further restructure outstanding indebtedness.

"We are extremely pleased with Coeur`s achievements in 2002, culminating in the fourth quarter, when our new generation of mines -- Cerro Bayo and Martha -- more than doubled their silver production from the third quarter. These mines are very low cost, high grade operations that will generate strong operating cash flow,"

said Dennis E. Wheeler, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer.

"We expect to build on our very successful exploration results in South America and continue adding more high-grade silver and gold ounces at low cost. At the same time, we have now neared completion of our debt restructuring efforts, and Coeur`s much stronger balance sheet now positions us to actively pursue new growth opportunities."

Financial Summary

Coeur d`Alene Mines Corporation (NYSE:CDE - News) today reported fourth quarter 2002 revenue of $28.8 million, an increase of 71 percent over reported revenue of $16.8 million in the fourth quarter of 2001. The improvements were due primarily to the contributions from the Company`s new low-cost Cerro Bayo and Martha mines in South America, which began production in the second quarter of 2002. For the full year 2002, the Company reported revenue of $94.5 million, up 31 percent from the $71.9 million in revenue the previous year.

During the fourth quarter 2002 the Company reported a net loss of $46.1 million, or $0.44 per share, due primarily to a previously reported $19.0 million write-down in the carrying value of Coeur Silver Valley`s Galena Mine, and $16.1 million related to the early retirement of 6 3/8% and 7 1/4% debentures in the fourth quarter. Excluding these items, Coeur`s fourth quarter net loss was $11.0 million, or $0.10 per share. In the year earlier fourth quarter, the Company had a net loss of $18.3 million, or $0.41 per share.

For the full year 2002, the Company reported a net loss of $81.2 million, or $1.04 per share, which included the write down of mining properties of $19.0 million and a loss on the early retirement of debt of $19.1 million. In the previous year, Coeur reported a net loss of $3.1 million, or $0.07 per share, which included a gain of $48.2 million due to the early retirement of debt.

Coeur`s mines continued to operate more efficiently during the fourth quarter and for the entire year, a trend that is expected to continue into 2003 as production increases from the Cerro Bayo and Martha mines. Cash used in operating activities was $789,000 during the fourth quarter, which represents a significant improvement from the $4.1 million of cash used in operating activities during last year`s fourth quarter. During 2002, $8.5 million was used in operating activities compared to $29.9 million during 2001.

The Company`s balance sheet continues to strengthen considerably. Year-end total debt was $84.5 million, down from $145.5 million at the end of 2001. On January 28, 2003, Coeur reported a further $36.4 million reduction in its outstanding indebtedness. On February 21, 2003, Coeur announced the private placement of $37.2 million of 9% Senior Convertible Notes due February 2007. The proceeds from this financing of $33.8 million will be used to further redeem $22.4 million of the Company`s 6 3/8% Subordinated Convertible Debentures due in January 2004. The balance will be available for general corporate purposes. At December 31, 2002, shareholder`s equity stood at $47.3 million at the end of the quarter, up from $26.8 million at December 31, 2001, primarily as a result of the conversions of debt to equity.

For the fourth quarter, Coeur realized an average silver price of $4.53 per ounce compared to an average realized price during last year`s fourth quarter of $4.34 per ounce. For its gold production, Coeur realized an average price of $324 per ounce during the fourth quarter compared to an average gold price of $275 per ounce during the same period last year.

weiter.....

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/030318/185271_1.html

[ThaiGuru]

Solltet Ihr vielleicht auch mal lesen.

BBC sieht Schwarz für unsere Weltwirtschaft, Krieg hin, oder her!

Gruss

ThaiGuru



http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/2858703.stm

Gloom for world economy

The global economic outlook is becoming gloomier even as uncertainty over if there will be a war has changed to when.

British troops pray in Kuwait

Economists and policy makers in the leading economies of the US, Japan and Europe all have serious concerns. In the US, the world`s largest economy, consumer confidence which accounts for two thirds of the economic activity has fallen to it lowest level in a decade.
Economic reports from European Union and Japan - which are both teetering on recession - indicate little chance of improvement, even if the war is short.

weiter....
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/2858703.stm

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.thisislondon.com/news/business/articles/timid6060…



Plunge protection and rallying shares

Anthony Hilton, Evening Standard

18 March 2003

STOCK markets rallied last week because it looked as if war with Iraq was going to be postponed. Yesterday the markets rallied because it looked like the war was about to begin. The two reasons contradict each other. The explanations do not make sense unless the markets are being rigged.

And who might want to do that? Well the US government would. The last thing President George W Bush needs is for his invasion of Iraq to set off a stock market crash, a collapse in the price of the dollar, a rush into gold or a spike in the price of oil. It is the kind of distraction that could be very unsettling.

The American public`s support for Bush`s Middle East adventure is not so cast-iron strong that he wants to tempt fate. So, according to the conspiracy theorists, the US authorities have been intervening anonymously in the markets to move them in the direction they want and to burn out any short-term speculators positioned the other way.

So do we believe the conspiracy story? Well, it is known that America has a secret standing committee known unofficially as the `plunge protection team` which consists of the President, the Secretary of the Treasury, the Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan, various other senior administration officials and the leading movers and shakers of Wall Street. The official purpose of this committee, as detailed a few years ago in the Washington Post, is to stabilise unruly markets for the greater good of the US as a whole. Seeking to prevent a military operation being undermined by panic in the financial markets would appear to be well within its brief.

The conspiracy theory also seems to fit the facts. The more astute watchers of markets say that the only explanation for what began last week and continued yesterday was a US government-inspired support action to get markets where they wanted before the outbreak of hostilities.

The trick about buying and selling in markets is to complete the trade without moving the price. The massive and sudden surge of activity last week and yesterday only made sense if it was intended to shift the price. Last week and again precisely at 3.30pm yesterday, massive selling undermined the euro on the currency markets and made the dollar correspondingly stronger. To the minute, there was similar sudden heavy selling in the gold market. Last week this bashed the metal`s price from $350 to nearer $330 and yesterday it killed off the recovery.

So much for gold as a safe haven in times of war.

Last week again, heavy selling and officially-inspired rumours of a fleet of loaded Saudi tankers heading this way brought the price of crude back from its peak. Yesterday the price was undermined by helpful rumours that the US government would release some of its vast strategic oil stockpile.

All very convenient, as was the rally in equities led by the New York`s Dow Jones Industrial Average. The Dow, surprisingly, is one of the world`s least sophisticated indices. It is composed of 30 shares but these are not weighted for market capitalisation, so the Dow`s value is much easier to manipulate than Wall Street`s size and importance would suggest.

Because its shares sell for more than $130, one company, 3M, accounts for more than 10% of the Dow`s value. IBM is another such heavyweight. Aggressive buying of these two companies has a remarkable effect on the index - certainly enough to create a bandwagon on to which others will jump. Needless to say, 3M has seen huge volume in recent days.

Convinced? We may not know what really happened for months, or even years. But there has been some astonishingly ham-fisted dealing in recent days if it was not deliberate market manipulation. And given that truth is the first casualty in war, why should we expect markets to be a no-go area for the architects of spin and the conditioners of expectations?

These markets are no place for innocents or innocence.

KKR`s record

IN a recent article on the Safeway bid, I wrote that on the basis of its 2001 report to investors, private equity house Kohlberg Kravis Roberts had `only two seriously profitable investments out of more than 60` in its 26 years of operation.

This is misleading because, while the two investments to which I referred were among the most successful in the history of private equity and contributed a significant proportion of the aggregate $30bn-plus of gains the firm has generated to date for its investors, the majority of the remainder have also been profitable.

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

Tuesday March 18 2003

Unfortunately for the nerves of Gold’s friends, India was closed today for another Hindu festival. A small consolation is that the Istanbul Gold Exchange weekly comment reports that

"Physical buyers who waited for lower price levels to purchase gold last week, returned to market. Gold trading volume on the Precious Metals Market of Istanbul Gold Exchange between 10th and 14th of March was 6,897 kg, or 2.67 fold of last week’s volume." (e.g. 267%)

Japan resolutely rejected the damage done to gold in New York yesterday, immediately pushing $US gold up - by $3 at one point - before early selling from Europe moderated the rise. On volume equal to 48,696 Comex contracts, 85% above yesterday’s limit- restricted level. The active contract closed down 12 yen and open interest rose the equivalent of 1,134 Comex lots. (NY yesterday traded 45,812 lots and open interest rose 207 contracts. Either the long liquidation reported by some observers did not happen, or, more likely, it was offset by fresh shorting.)

Quite why the Japanese are willing to defy the New York gold trend - and on much heavier volume – is interesting. They can hardly differ as to the likely military outcome of an Iraq conflict. Perhaps, as suggested yesterday, the prospect of an unleashed enraged America alarms them, or they fear subsequent trouble. Or perhaps they are really preoccupied with their domestic problems, as the morose Japanese stock market certainly seems to be. The incoming Governor and Deputy Governors of the Bank of Japan testified before the lower house of the Diet today, the former musing about BOJ purchases of unconventional assets, and one of the latter speaking warmly of inflation targeting. Good for Japanese economic activity perhaps, but hardly for the internal or external value of the yen. Possibly this theme is returning. That would be bad news for gold bears.

Not the least dramatic of the recent sequence of dramatic news events is the publication in a London newspaper of a rude but well-written story questioning the provenance of the stock markets rally:

"STOCK markets rallied last week because it looked as if war with Iraq was going to be postponed. Yesterday the markets rallied because it looked like the war was about to begin. The two reasons contradict each other. The explanations do not make sense unless the markets are being rigged"

See:

http://www.thisislondon.com/news/business/articles/timid6060…

This commands attention partly because of a peculiar column written by Bloomberg’s astute and usually skeptical columnist Caroline Baum, following Thursday’s monster rally:

"New York, March 15 (Bloomberg) -- Ignore the tape. The markets did…. What was curious about Thursday`s move was the synchronicity of it: Every market reacted in the manner it`s expected to react when the curtain finally goes up on Bombs Over Baghdad."

"The someones who know something who were buying stocks Thursday were of sufficient mass to override lousy economic news. Retail sales fell 1.6 percent in February and were down 1 percent, excluding autos. Both declines were much worse than expected…."

Baum’s column meanders then off to consider the vulnerability the shorts without shedding light on what on the face of constitutes an insider trading case of staggering proportions.

From gold’s point of view, damage to the public’s faith in the integrity of financial markets is obviously positive. If it gains wide currency, so will the next obvious question: once the policy objective of attacking Iraq is achieved might not the management stop? At that point, gold underpinned by the physical market might be comparatively safe compared to the US stock market set in US circumstances.

JB

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

March 18 – Gold $337.20 up 70 cents – Silver $4.44 unchanged

Gold Shares Continue To Move Up In Stealth Fashion

"The greater the obstacle the more glory in overcoming it." — Jean Baptiste Molière, 17th-century French dramatist

Classic, good early gold action. Just what I like to see. Gold was due $2 lower for most of the morning, but came in better than expected on Comex. Always a good sign. It immediately rose to the unchanged area and then took off on the upside. Why call it wonderful classic action? Because gold reversed course on its own. There were no outside market forces to account for the rally. The dollar was firm, oil tanked $2 and the stock market was due a good deal higher.

The early buying was led by Goldman Sachs. Unfortunately, The Gold Cartel remains insistent on keeping any sort of gold excitement to a minimum. They bopped the yellow metal on the head when gold was $3.40 higher on the day – end of rally. Gold has now managed three small gains in a row after its walloping.

As a result of the orchestrated gold selling of past weeks, gold has a fairly sizeable top formation above today’s close. It will take a move above the $347 area to nullify that formation and a move above $360 to put the bull move in high gear again.

Daily gold chart:
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/43

Many months ago, my colleagues and I wondered what it was going to take for The Gold Cartel to finally let go. They have to be running out of physical gold to carry out their scheme. At least, that is what we keep reminding ourselves. I suggested way back that the cabal might use the Iraq war itself as an excuse to let gold fly; i.e. blame a soaring gold price on the war. We will find out if that is so in the weeks/months to come.

Anthony Hilton`s story, "Plunge protection and rallying shares" in London`s Evening Standard, was such an upper I have included it again in the Appendix (earlier sent out by email). It has taken a long time, but word is gradually spreading about the rigging of the US markets, especially gold. Andrew Hilton’s story could have been part of any of the MIDAS commentary the past week. The article is a superb GATA credibility builder.

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

Auch in Asien, soweit das Auge reicht Manipulationen!



http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=South%20Asia%20N…

South Asia News

Wed, 19 Mar 2003, 12:43pm HKT

From Japan to Malaysia, Asian Governments Try to Boost Markets

By Kate Linebaugh

Hong Kong, March 19 (Bloomberg) -- From Tokyo to Kuala Lumpur, Asian governments are trying to boost stock indexes sapped by concerns about war and slowing global growth. Investors say their efforts are too little, and almost certainly too late.

Take South Korea, where the government added $1.6 billion to money markets on Friday to limit fallout from the nation`s biggest accounting scandal in four years. The benchmark Kospi index rose for the first time in eight days -- then slumped on Monday to a 17- month low.

It`s much the same in Japan, where the government is trying to limit short-selling to lift the Nikkei 225 Stock average from two-decade lows. Hong Kong`s stock exchange is considering a limit on the minimum spread at which stocks can be bid and offered, aiming to win back investors as the Hang Seng Index fell to its lowest since October 1998 on March 13.

``It is difficult for these type of policies to stem the tide,`` said Will Malcolm, who helps manage $2.5 billion at Standard Life Investments in Hong Kong. ``I don`t think, taken in isolation, that this is going to change the huge amounts of fear and concern that continue to affect equity markets.``

Investors are concerned about war in Iraq, North Korean missile tests and slowing economic growth in the U.S., the biggest market for Asia`s exports. Some say any market incentives adopted now won`t stem the selling.

The MSCI Asia Free Index, comprised of 778 stocks from around the region, closed at a record low on Monday and has fallen 7.7 percent this year.

With 265,000 U.S. and U.K. forces massed on the Iraqi border and U.S. President George W. Bush giving Iraqi President Saddam Hussein 48 hours to leave the country or face an invasion, investors are bracing for a war that would boost oil prices, slow economic growth and delay the profit growth needed for a market rebound.

`Psychological`

That hasn`t stopped governments from using regulations to try to prop up their markets.

In January, Malaysia established a 10 billion ringgit ($2.6 billion) fund to buy government-linked stocks. The Kuala Lumpur Composite Index has fallen 7 percent from this year`s high on Jan. 21. The government said last week it would cut the cost of stock trading and ease share-sale rules to lift the market. Shares fell the day that plan was announced.

``I am a bit cynical,`` said Pieter van Putten, chief executive officer of Morley Fund Management (Singapore) Ltd., which manages $3.1 billion in Asia, excluding Japan.

``Government support programs tend to have a short-term effect on markets and are often nothing more than psychological. Then it tends to fade away very quickly.``

Philippines, Japan

In the Philippines, where stock-market trading has fallen by four-fifths and the benchmark index has lost a third of its value in the last two years, the stock exchange last week announced plans to ease rules on public share sales. Yesterday, it delayed reinstating a requirement that companies make a minimum percentage of their shares available for trading.

``There isn`t much demand out there,`` said Ernest Leung, president of the Philippine stock exchange.

To curb the impact of a war in Iraq, Japan`s government may ask stock exchanges to narrow the limit for daily share-price fluctuations, Minister for Financial Services Heizo Takenaka said yesterday.

A looming war isn`t Japan`s only motivation for propping up markets. The government is also trying to avert a crisis at the nation`s banks, which are saddled with about 52 trillion yen ($438.5 billion) in bad debt, and stem a 12-year slide in the world`s No. 2 economy.

The government will ask the central bank to double the amount of shares it plans to buy from lenders to 4 trillion yen, Hideyuki Aizawa, a senior ruling-party official, said yesterday.

March 31 Deadline

Policy makers aim to stem further share-price declines before the March 31 fiscal year-end, when lenders will be required to report their shareholdings` current market value. Slumping share prices would widen losses on the roughly 21 trillion yen banks have invested in shares, threatening to push their capital below required levels.

Japan`s Financial Services Agency also said last week it would seek to limit short-selling of shares and make it easier for companies to buy back their own shares in an effort to shore up markets.

South Korea`s Kospi has fallen about 15 percent this year for its own reasons: mounting tensions with North Korea, concern about rising credit-card defaults and the nation`s worst accounting scandal in four years. The index pared its losses yesterday, gaining 4.3 percent on optimism a war in Iraq will be short.

Tax Breaks

On top of the $1.6 billion it injected into the market last week, Korea`s government said it planned more tax breaks to attract institutional investors to the stock market. President Roh Moo Hyun also proposed measures allowing banks and insurance companies to invest more heavily in stocks.

Some investors say such measures haven`t been enough to draw them back into the region`s stock markets.

``These events are positive, but I don`t think they`re going to cause the international or domestic fund manager to suddenly say, `Oh the world is fine, let`s start buying equities,``` said Standard Life`s Malcolm.

[manfred1_I]

Bericht: US-Truppen rücken vor

US-Streitkräfte sind angeblich in die entmilitarisierte Zone an der irakisch-kuwaitischen Grenze einmarschiert. Laut BBC hat ein US-Sprecher den Bericht dementiert

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.usagold.com

The Afternoon Gold Report...

by Jon Warner

March 19, 2003 (usagold.com)

New York spot gold settled lower at $335.60 an ounce down $1.60 an ounce from yesterday’s close. Gold drifted lower as some short term funds and speculators traded out of gold as the war with Iraq appeared imminent. "Gold is the place you go in times of unrest in the world and economic turmoil," said Don Cassidy, senior analyst at research company Lipper Inc. "So now you have people chasing short-term performance. They always do that. And in the computer age, it`s much easier to know exactly what`s hot." A strong case for gold remains, even if an Iraq conflict ends quickly, said John Hathaway, manager of the Tocqueville Gold fund, with assets of more than $200 million. "If you accept the consensus view that it will all be over quickly, and that we will have forgotten about it in three months time, there will still be plenty of things attractive about gold," he said. A weak economy, overvaluation of the U.S. dollar and a loss of confidence in the way U.S. companies report their earnings are a few factors keeping gold an alluring refuge, said Hathaway. The U.S. dollar held steady against weakening euro and yen currencies. ``War is being priced out of the currency market and that`s behind the dollar`s gains,`` said Paresh Upadhyaya, who helps manage $67 billion in international assets at Putnam Investments in Boston. ``The currency could extend the rally if this turns out to be a fast conflict -- from two to four weeks.`` The equities markets made modest gains. ``We have seen better inflows over the past two weeks, but, that being said, the U.S. has to attract a lot of capital -- it has a very large and growing current-account deficit,`` said Daniel Katzive, a currency strategist at UBS Warburg in Stamford, Connecticut, the second-largest trader in the $1.2 trillion-a-day currency market. ``Unless investors see large returns from U.S. assets, you`re not going to see a stronger dollar,`` he said.

London gold was fixed this afternoon at $335.80 an ounce, down from $339.90 an ounce at the morning fixing. ``Volatility is set to remain high over the coming days,`` James Moore, a precious metals analyst at the research group TheBullionDesk.com. Gold is likely to climb ``rapidly`` if the U.S. starts military action as soon the 48-hour deadline expires. "The use of military action against Iraq is pretty much a foregone conclusion now and the start of which will give gold an upwards surge," said Moore. ``There`s no clear signal from Iraq and although the war is getting closer people are concerned whether it will be quick or drawn out,`` said Ross Norman, a director at research company TheBullionDesk.com. ``Gold`s so sensitive to these pieces of news the u-turns can be very abrupt,`` said Kevin Crisp, a precious metals strategist at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein in London. "Based on the recent behavior of the financial markets, investors are becoming less worried about the outcome for the apparently imminent Iraq conflict, although gold has held up quite well considering the rally in the dollar. Further dollar and equity strength will see gold under further pressure," John Reade of UBS Warburg added.

Earlier spot gold closed at $339.30 an ounce on Wednesday in Hong Kong, up $2.30 from Tuesday`s close of $337.00. Gold prices rebounded as speculation the U.S. may attack Iraq within 48 hours increased demand among investors for a haven. Although there is a widespread view that war will be short, investors are wary of a series of risks -- including a bloody siege of Baghdad, torched oilfields, an Iraqi attack on Israel or terrorist attack in the United States or its ally Britain. Analysts said spot gold would likely jump higher on a knee-jerk reaction to the start of hostilities before falling victim to a sell-off. "However, price volatility is likely to remain high in the coming days as the market is discounting a quick, successful campaign," NM Rothschild said in a daily bulletin. "With war now likely, the only lingering source of uncertainty is whether it will be as short a conflict as is generally assumed," said Craig James, senior analyst at Commonwealth Securities in Sydney.

Gold appears to have support in India should the price fall much lower. Gold demand rises in India during the Hindu marriage season, which starts in January and runs through May, as parents give jewellery to their daughters for financial security. Traders said retail purchases had marginally fallen, as there were few auspicious days for marriages in the next two weeks. "There will be a rush for imports if prices fall to $325 an ounce," said Nayan Pansare, a senior official of trading firm Inter Gold Ltd. "I don`t think speculators will be much interested in gold now as the uncertainty is soon likely to be over. Physical demand will guide prices." Indian traders are awaiting the outcome of the Iraqi situation. "The market is a little nervous at the moment. We don`t know whether it will be a short and decisive war or a dirty one, involving chemical and biological weapons," said Ranjit Rathod, a gold trader based in the southern city of Madras. Traders said imports have slowed sharply, sufficient to cover immediate requirements and maintain a small inventory. India annually imports 500 to 600 tonnes of gold.


GEOPOLITICAL NEWS:

The Bush administration on Wednesday told Americans to prepare for hostilities with Iraq that will cost lives and last for an unknown time, and said it had given Congress the required notification for war.

Kuwaiti security sources said on Wednesday that U.S.-led forces had moved into the demilitarized zone (DMZ) that straddles the Iraq-Kuwait border, apparently in preparation for an imminent attack on Iraq. "Troops walked into the DMZ this morning at around 11 a.m. (3 a.m. EST)," a Kuwaiti security force source working in the Umm Qasr area in the east of the zone said. "American convoys are still driving toward Umm Qasr."

Warplanes from the USS Abraham Lincoln bombed Iraqi positions on Wednesday after coalition aircraft patrolling a no-fly zone were fired on by Iraqi forces, a top admiral said. "There were yesterday four firings against our aircraft flying in the southern no-fly zone," Rear Admiral John Kelly told reporters onboard the Lincoln. He said U.S. forces had responded by bombing "a series of targets" he described as "command and control" positions in the western part of the no-fly zone early on Wednesday morning.

The top U.S. naval commander in the Gulf told sailors on Wednesday that war on Iraq was "very likely" within a couple of days. "I don`t know for a fact that you are going to go. But I think it very likely that within a couple of days jets are going to be going off the front of the USS Abraham Lincoln," Vice Admiral Timothy Keating, commander of the Fifth Fleet, told the crew of the Lincoln, an aircraft carrier in the Gulf.

A fierce sandstorm in parts of the Kuwaiti desert briefly cut visibility to a few yards on Wednesday, but a U.S. commander said the dust would not disrupt plans for an imminent invasion of Iraq. In other parts of the assembly zones for tens of thousands of U.S. and British military personnel, Reuters correspondents said visibility was about 200 yards. Three hundred 300 miles to the northwest, Baghdad was also shrouded in dust.

Seventeen Iraqi soldiers have given themselves up to U.S.-led forces in northern Kuwait, U.S. military sources said Wednesday. No further details were immediately available.

Thirty governments have agreed to be named in public as supporters of a U.S. invasion of Iraq, and about 15 others are cooperating behind the scenes, the State Department said on Tuesday. State Department spokesman Richard Boucher said the basic criterion for inclusion in the published list was that the countries wanted to be publicly associated with the idea that Iraq has to be disarmed now. They are not necessarily providing any assistance to the U.S. war effort. The United States on Tuesday girded for possible terror attacks sparked by the looming war with Iraq, stepping up security measures and deploying the National Guard across the nation to help protect infrastructure and symbolic targets.


ECONOMIC NEWS:

Americans filed a record number of mortgage applications last week, mainly to refinance, even as mortgage rates ticked up from four-decade lows and a war with Iraq looms, an industry report said on Wednesday.

U.S. consumer confidence fell this week, hit by soaring gasoline prices and approaching war, a survey showed on Tuesday. ABC News/Money Magazine said its weekly Consumer Comfort index fell to -26 in the week ended March 16 from -25 the prior week. The index, a scale of plus-100 to minus-100, is approaching the nine-year low of -27 it reached during the week of Jan. 19.


Comment: Gold traded mostly sideways on thin volume but ended lower as the nation awaits the approach of the deadline for war at 8:00 pm (EST). The bullion markets were roiled with rumors Iraq`s Deputy Prime Minister Tareq Aziz had either defected to U.S. authorities or was shot trying to flee Baghdad. The rumor was later proven false. Another rumor said that one of Saddam’s sons was shot. The price of gold drifted modestly lower as some traders blamed the imminent war shaking out what was left of the “war premium” while others blamed the weakening of the largely untested Euro currency and the imploding nearly worthless yen. It appears that we may have to watch the developments in the Middle East for now as there is little economic news and all eyes are focused on events in the Middle East. Once the war plays out and the remaining short-term speculators are shaken out, precious metals investors can get back to business and focus on the weak global economy, an overvalued U.S. dollar, rising energy costs and a new potential energy crisis, inflationary pressures, and other geopolitical concerns in the Middle East and North Korea.


-Jon H. Warner-


E-Mail the current report to a friend or to yourself.
__________________________
Jon Warner is a professional geologist with nearly 24 years in exploration and project development in both mining and petroleum. Mr. Warner brings to the table an impressive industry contact list, thorough knowledge of the precious metals and energy markets as well as a practical understanding of gold`s role in the private investment portfolio. His strong knowledge in these fields has been demonstrated at the USAGOLD Discussion Forum where he posts on a regular basis as Black Blade.



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[ThaiGuru]

March 19 – Gold $335.60 down $1.60– Silver $4.40

Greenspan and Japanese Agree to Rig Financial Markets

"Accept the challenges, so you may feel the exhilaration of victory."
--Gen. George S. Patton

We now know that my louder than usual ranting the past many days about the US rigging the financial markets was right on the money. The following story ran in the BBC today:

http://news.bbc..co.uk/2/low/business/2863051.stm

Wednesday, 19 March, 2003, 06:25 GMT

Days ahead of a war, the US and Japan are prepared to co-operate to support the financial markets if there is a crisis.

A deal was struck last week in the US between a former Japanese finance minister and the head of the US central bank, the Federal Reserve`s Alan Greenspan.

"There was an agreement between Japan and the US to take action co-operatively in foreign exchange, stocks and other markets if the markets face a crisis," Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuo Fukuda said.

The move came as Japan`s key Nikkei 225 index dropped to another 20-year low, falling about 1.5% to hit 7,824.82, before rebounding.

Finance and economics minister Heizo Takenaka said the Bank of Japan and stock exchanges would be watching the markets closely during the current Iraq crisis.

Economic troubles

"We will follow the prime minister`s instructions, co-operate with the Bank of Japan and exchanges, and respond appropriately," he said.

The looming war comes as Japan`s economy continues to struggle with weak domestic demand, record unemployment and a third year of deflation.

Stronger exports also look threatened as the weakening of the dollar has pushed up the yen.

Japan`s Financial Services Agency has already announced a number of measures to support the markets including easing rules on companies to buy their own shares.

-END-

What else is new for the US? We have been in "crisis" market rigging mode for weeks, in gold for at least seven years. We don’t know anything else anymore. Unfortunately, it is going to come to a bad end for the average Joe and Jane in America. They won’t know what hit them. How could they? "Message discipline" prevents stories like these from being carried in the US financial press.

Surely, concerns of Alan Greenspan and the US bombing the gold market, once the bombs start falling in Iraq, pressured gold today. Gold was firm in Asia and in early London trading hours. The AM Fix was $339. Then, as has been the case almost every single day the past weeks, cabal forces came in to knock gold down. What is the big deal about a rising gold price? Plenty, it could set off the derivative’s financial weapons of mass destruction that Warren Buffet speaks of. That’s because gold is the lynchpin of the financial market universe at the moment. How strange that such a little, vilified financial market rules the roost! If it didn’t, The Gold Cartel wouldn’t be taking such pains to knock the price down and keep it there.

How many times over the years have I said gold will only really go up when The Gold Cartel is carried out on a stretcher? I am sick of saying it, but that’s the way it is. That can happen at any time. All we can do is be vigilant and watch for further signs of their demise. The first was the rise up to $388.

I thought silver was about to pop before gold was blown out of the water below the low $350’s by the cabal forces. Wrong! It is only a dime or so away from contract lows. The silver police have this commodity under the tightest of market controls. Maybe some day we will find out how they pulled off this scam?

The Working Group on Financial Markets engineered the euro into one awful looking chart:

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/EC/63

The stock market was propped, the dollar buoyed and gold trashed going into the war. All moves went directly against the past week’s economic news in the US. Since all three moves were "arranged," it is hard to put stock in any of the charts. They used to represent reality. Now, it may be an ILLUSION!

Any analysis of the markets without taking into account the obvious rigging operations is laughable and could cause a great deal of investor pain when the markets are allowed to trade again without The Working Group on Financial Markets intervening.

Former Treasury Secretary Paul O`Neill said it best in an AP interview:

"It’s all about sound bites, deluding the people, pandering to the lowest common denominator," he said. "I didn’t adjust (in Washington) and I’m not going to start now."


GATA’s Ed Steer on the BBC market rigging story:

Hi Bill,

That story must be the reason why the Nikkei went from -110 to +98 at the close last night.

Why bother having a stock market of any kind if the weak players are going to be protected from their own folly...not to mention the free market decisions of the individual stockholders.

That`s why the Federal Reserve was created. It was a cartel designed to limit competition, enrich themselves, and bail out fellow members (and their biggest clients) at the American taxpayer`s expense. All this is beautifully explained by G. Edward Griffin in his landmark work "The Creature From Jekyll Island".

The Fed and Wall Street has now taken this principle and applied it to the stock market, bond market and the US$...and are now are attempting to extend it to world equity and currency markets. Thrown to the wolves are commodity prices in general and the `canaries in the fiat currency mine`...gold and silver. Needless to say, the ones that suffer most are developing countries...not to mention our own commodity producers in North America and Europe.

But, in the end, the markets are just too big for anyone (or everyone) to control over the long term. Don`t ever forget Ian Gordon`s little piece of paper that says, "It`s the debt, stupid!". And somewhere in this upcoming Middle East wiener roast is Jim Puplava`s "10 Sigma" event. It`s out there, and it`s just a matter of when it shows up and what form it takes.

So right now the American, British and Japanese governments and financial institutions can say what they like...but they are, as you would say in the great state of Texas, "All hat, and no cattle".

The war starts when the market closes today. Let`s see how they do when the real sh*t hits the fan.

Best personal wishes.
Ed

GATA’s Mike Bolser’s slant on the same:

Hi Reg:

By now everybody has seen the joint announcement that the US and Japan have entered into a currency support domain. I think there are two salient facts at work (1) The program has been announced and (2) The entities felt a mutual need to intervene.

Both of these facts suggest a position of weakness on both sides. Did the Fed imagine the world would simply slink away from the FOREX tables when it issued its intent? Did the LDP feel that it`s financial cancer would be cured by another bout of currency inflation?

Japanese financial weakness might as well be up in sky-written neon lights these days but many forget that there is a ceiling to the yen. A golden ceiling around 132 yen to the dollar. It was at that level last year when elders came out of the finely-polished woodwork to buy gold in record quantities. This time the trigger level may be far lower since the BOJ`s new chairman has agreed to inflation targets and today has announced the currency selling mechanism to achieve that inflation.

All-in-all the heavy-handed Fed treatment of the markets and commodities indicates a better future for gold bugs. They are trying a bit too hard. Each "Release" of Strategic Petroleum Reserve oil is in reality a delivery of previously sold crude [Akin to the Bank of England gold `Auctions`].

Best, Mike

PS: The repurchase agreement absence-of-expirations predicted war rally has happened right on cue. I wonder haw many new investors flocked in?

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

Wednesday March 19 2003

Indian ex duty premiums: AM $7.65, PM $7.90, with world gold at $339 both times. Continuing well above legal import point. Reuters carries a damage control story of the more usual negative type, featuring an Indian dealer claiming imports have slowed to

"…sufficient to cover immediate requirements and maintain a small inventory"

On these numbers, requirements are being underestimated. Perhaps the shippers are afraid of war-related shipment risk.

TOCOM nudged $US gold towards $340 early today, but was turned back by steady Trade House arbitrage selling. The rally effort was gentle, however: volume was only equal to 34,557 Comex lots, down 29% from Tuesday and open interest static (down 139 Comex lots). The active contract settled up 3 yen and $US gold closed at $338.75, $1.25 above New York. (NY yesterday traded an estimated 42,000 lots.)

Japan generally continues in an anxious state. The Nikkei 225 was down to a fresh 20 year low at one point today, before rising a little on claims by a politician that Official market supporting actions were imminent. Also, Chief Cabinet Secretary Fukuda contributed an arresting statement:

"TOKYO (Nikkei)--Cabinet Secretariat Adviser Haruhiko Kuroda and a senior official of the U.S. government agreed in Washington last weekend that the two governments will cooperate in calming any turmoil in the financial markets if growing tension ahead of an imminent U.S. attack on Iraq rattles the stock or currency markets, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuo Fukuda told the press Wednesday….

Crisis management will cover a wide range of economic fronts, in addition to the currency and stock markets…he said.

(The Nihon Keizai Shimbun Wednesday evening edition)

It would be interesting to hear the American version of this!

In Standard London’s words, yesterday:

"Gold spent most of the day chasing its tail as dealers passed on positions like a hot potato. Physical related buying was always in evidence throughout the day, helping to underpin the price on any dip"

but

"there appeared to be a consistent seller of the yellow metal, probably producer or Central Bank related."

In an unentertaining variation of the normal early New York selling assault on any strength in gold, the metal suddenly slid some $5 in the two hours before the opening - during the London lunch hour - always a curious time for a seller to operate. Yet another Iraq rumor was blamed. Obviously short-term action in gold is going to turn on ephemeral news events. But viewing the premium situation and the Japanese events gives reason to concur with technician Martin Pring’s judgment

"The speculative positions taken in anticipation of the war in commodities, bonds and currencies are being rapidly unwound. Gold is no exception and now stands a little above its 2002/2003 up trend line. Since the KST is extremely oversold a rally is likely."

(KST is a momentum measure).

JB

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

Thought these comments from Sean Corrigan at

www.capital-insight.com

might interest you. In 1981, 5 billion ounces of gold - perhaps 175% of the contemporary gold stock, would have matched M3. By Dec of 2001, this has stretched to 29 billion ounces - more than 7 times the greater weight of bullion in existence. Every extra ounce of gold mined since 1983 has been matched by the creation of $4,600 in broad money, and $530 of narrow.

I asked Bob what his interpretation of Sean’s ever superb work was and he came back with:

How can gold do anything else but go up when the printing presses are being run at such a rate. Jim Sinclair`s est of $1650 gold to balance the money stock may be conservative, as they appear to be getting more and more desperate by the day. Federal debt has gone up something like $470b in the last 17 months, and we hear no word of the debt ceiling being reached with no increase approved yet. They`ll probably push that thru midnight whatever night the bombs start flying to eliminate any press coverage. It appears we`ve gone back in time to 1919-1920 Germany. Lets hope we don`t hit the worst of the Weimar Republics 1923.

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

Na dann wollen wir mal schauen heute!

Erster heutiger Kurs beim Goldpreis = 337.- Dollar (1. Wert)

[ThaiGuru]

Nach nur gerade 7 Werten im Comdirect Chart ist der Goldpreis um sagenhafte 5 Dollar pro Unze, von 337.- Dollar auf 332.- Dollar runtergefallen.

Was müssen wir Gold Bugs uns eigentlich noch alles ansehen!

Das stinkt doch wieder einmal mehr gewaltig zum Himmel.

Gruss

ThaiGuru



Beim Kitco 24 Std. Chart, sieht man einen senkrechten Spike nach unten.

[Tippgeber1]

@ThaiGuru

Dachte eigentlich, dass Gold mehr ansteigen würde,
aber es passiert wenig bis gar nichts.


Gruß
Tippi

[manfred1_I]

Palladium ist zwar nicht Gold, aber wird
doch langsam interessant.

Stillwater??

USD 3.13 0.34 +12,19%
Kurs soeben in NY

[kazman]

je länger sich die "Blutrally" nach hinten hinauszögert, desto besser für uns
- oder was meint Ihr ?

[dr.gips]

was ist mit drooy los ???

[manfred1_I]

drooy fällt Morgen auf 2,3 €.

[bluemoons]

GOLD versus DOLLAR

von Hans Sennholz

Überall auf der Welt ist Gold ein begehrenswertes ökonomisches Objekt. Man kann Gold zur Herstellung von Schmuck und Ornamenten nutzen. Gold ist auch ein sehr dehnbares Metall, ideal für jede Menge elektrische und mechanische Produkte. Gold ist ein guter elektrischer Leiter. Es ist dauerhaft und lagerbar, kann leicht versteckt und leicht verschifft werden. Gold ist sehr leicht verkaufbar. Gold könnte der am leichtesten zu verkaufende Rohstoff auf dem Globus sein.

Der Goldpreis wird von den gleichen Faktoren bestimmt, die für alle anderen wirtschaftlichen Güter gelten. Die Individuen bestimmen den Wert eines Gutes abhängig davon, wie viel Spaß und Befriedigung sie durch den Besitzt dieses Gutes erhalten. Die Ökonomen bestimmen den Preis abhängig vom Nutzen und von der Verfügbarkeit. Wie der Preis jedes anderen Gutes ändert sich der Goldpreis bei wechselnden Wahrnehmungen und Situationen.

Man muss dies betonen, besonders gegenüber den Gold-Anhängern, die von einem "ewigen, fixen Wert des Goldes" sprechen. Sie haben offensichtlich nie erfahren, dass grundsätzliche Dinge, die das menschliche Leben erhalten, manchmal jemandem mehr wert sein können als Gold. Ein Verdurstender in der Wüste würde einen Eimer Wasser einem Kilobarren Gold vorziehen.

Das Goldangebot ist groß. Tausende Jahre lang ist Gold aus der Erde geholt und angesammelt worden; sehr wenig ist konsumiert worden oder verloren gegangen. Das existierende Angebot an Münzen, Juwelen und Dekorationen ist erheblich größer als die derzeitige Produktion. Egal, wie viel Gold derzeit in Südafrika oder Russland produziert wird – das sind vernachlässigbare Größen im Vergleich zum derzeitigen individuellen Besitzt weltweit. Dieses Charakteristikum – das Gold von allen anderen Metallen unterscheidet – reduziert das Risiko plötzlicher Angebots- und Preiswechsel. Sogar Silber, das viele ähnliche Charakteristika wie das Gold hat, ist großen Wechseln bei der Produktion und beim Verbrauch unterworfen, die den Wert beeinflussen können.

Die besonderen Charakteristika, die man dem Gold zuschreibt, haben es zum populären Zahlungsmittel gemacht; Gold ist zum Geld der Menschheit geworden. Seit über 2.500 Jahren – vom alten Griechenland bis hin zu den modernen USA – haben Goldmünzen als Geld und als Kalkulationsstandard gedient.

Jahrhunderte lang haben Regierungen eine Art Hassliebe gegenüber dem Gold gehabt. Die meiste Zeit über strebten sie danach, das Gold in ihren Schatzkammern anzuhäufen und den Gebrauch von Gold zu monopolisieren. Zu anderen Zeiten wurde wegen Gold Krieg geführt, und es wurde versucht, den Gebrauch von Gold zu verbieten – mit angedrohten Strafen bis hin zur Todesstrafe. Während der Französischen Revolution starben Hunderte Geschäftsleute unter der Guillotine, weil sie es gewagt hatten, ihre Preise in Gold anzugeben und nach Gold zu fragen. In den USA war es von 1933 bis 1975 ein Verbrechen, Standard-Goldmünzen zu besitzen.

Wir leben in einem Zeitalter, in dem alle Regierungen – egal ob interventionistisch, sozialistisch, demokratisch oder diktatorisch – gleichzeitig auch einen Kommandoposten für die Wirtschaft übernommen haben. Die meisten Regierungen arbeiten durch ihre Zentralbanken, die Geldscheine drucken. 1971 gaben die USA den Goldstandard auf und ließen die wichtigste und stabilste Währung – den US$ – den Platz des Goldes übernehmen. Die Welt hat seitdem keinen Goldstandard mehr, sondern einen Dollarstandard.

Für die US-Regierung war der Dollarstandard der magische Schlüssel zum fröhlichen Geldausgeben und Schuldenmachen. Die US-Zentralbank wurde dadurch von der Pflicht zur Golddeckung der Währung entbunden, und sie war deshalb frei, die Staatsdefizite finanzieren zu können. 1971 lag das US-Haushaltsdefizit bei rund 23 Mrd. Dollar, und der Gesamtschuldenstand des Bundes bei 409,5 Mrd. Dollar.

Seit 1971 hat der Dollar fast 70 % seiner Kaufkraft verloren – und er verliert fast jeden Tag weitere Kaufkraft. Es ist schwierig, die zukünftigen Schulden und Defizite zu prognostizieren, aber es ist wahrscheinlich, dass der Dollar kollabieren wird, wenn die ausländischen Investoren jemals ihr Vertrauen in den Dollar verlieren sollten.

Der Dollarstandard hat es der US-Zentralbank ermöglicht, den Dollar jedes Jahr de facto abzuwerten und den Zuwachs der staatlichen Aufgaben und der staatlichen Ausgaben zu finanzieren. Der Dollar hat seit 1971 70 % seiner Kaufkraft verloren, während die Zahl der Gesetze und Regulierungen wahrscheinlich um einen ähnlichen Prozentsatz gestiegen ist.

Viele Volkswirte sind davon überzeugt, dass das derzeitige System der Haushaltsdefizite und gleichzeitigen Geldmengen- und Kreditexpansion auf Dauer nicht tragbar ist. Sie fordern große Steuererhöhungen oder drastische Ausgabenkürzungen, die es der Fed erlauben würden, ihre Geld-Fabrikation herunterzufahren. Aber diese Volkswirte wissen auch, dass Steuererhöhungen in Zeiten der wirtschaftlichen Stagnation und der steigenden Arbeitslosigkeit die wirtschaftliche Aktivität noch weiter belasten würden. Ausgabenkürzungen würden der Gesamtwirtschaft wahrscheinlich helfen, aber sie wären zweifellos nicht akzeptabel für die Gruppierungen, die von diesen Ausgaben profitieren. Und genau diese Gruppierungen würden dann Staatsausgaben auf Kredit als Patentrezept gegen alle wirtschaftlichen Schwierigkeiten anführen.

Die großen Staatsdefizite könnten auch auf eine andere Weise verringert werden: Die Fed könnte die Geldmenge so erhöhen, dass es zu einem Wiederanstieg der Inflation kommen würde, was die reale Schuldenlast senken würde. Eine 5 %ige Inflation verringert die Kaufkraft der 7 Billionen Dollar Staatsschulden (nur der Bund) um jährlich 350 Milliarden Dollar. Wenn die Inflationsrate auf das Niveau der 1980er steigen würde –12,5 % –, dann würde die Kaufkraft der Staatsschulden um 875 Milliarden Dollar pro Jahr abnehmen. Aber eine solche "Lösung" könnte eine Vertrauenskrise hervorrufen und der Anfang vom Ende des Dollarstandards sein.

Seit Jahrzehnten steht der allmächtige Dollar für Vertrauen und Zuversicht. Er hat den USA in der Welt Ehre, Freunde, Einfluss und Besitz gebracht. Er ist ein Symbol der Macht und des Prestiges. Obwohl wir nicht wissen, was die Zukunft bringen wird, fürchten wir Amerikaner uns davor, dass eines Tages das Ende des Dollarstandards kommen könnte. Hohe Staatsdefizite und eine durch die Fed bewusst hervorgerufene Inflation könnten den Dollar zerstören. Die Defizite könnten die Fed dazu bewegen, immer mehr Dollar zu drucken, was die Vertrauenswürdigkeit des Dollar in den Augen der Welt schwächen würde. Die derzeitige Dollarschwäche gegenüber dem Euro und dem Schweizer Franken ist ein frühes Symptom dieser Erosion.

Keine andere Währung könnte den Platz des Dollar übernehmen. Denn alle Währungen haben den gleichen Geburtsfehler: Sie sind die Schaffung von Politikern, die diese Währungen immer manipulieren können. Was immer man vom Gold halten mag: Es lässt sich nicht manipulieren, und es ist die ganze Zeit seit dem Beginn der Zivilisation als Geld genutzt worden. Gold war im Hintergrund immer da.




investorverlag.de

[ThaiGuru]

Der Krieg USA gegen den Irak ist seit gestern nun Tatsache geworden!

Eine Börsenrally hat in Europa/USA nicht stattgefunden, wiso auch. Sie wurde von sehr vielen Leuten erhofft, und diese Hoffnung hat sich nicht erfüllt.

Vielen Gold Bugs erging es ähnlich, sie haben ein Ansteigen der Gold Preis Notierungen, bei einem Ausbruch des Krieges erwartet. Die Gegner von Gold, haben uns Gold Bugs einen Zusammenbruch der Goldpreise vorausgesagt, aber wie man sieht, beides ist nicht eingetreten.

Warum nicht?

Nun, gestern frühmorgens in Asien viel der Goldpreis in nur einigen Minuten von 337.- Dollar "Unerwartet" in ganzen sieben Deals um 5.- Dollar. Ausgelöst im Direct Access Market, der paralell zum Handel in Australien läuft. Danach hielten sich die Goldpreise der ganzen Tag über alle Goldhandelsplätze in diesem Bereich von 332.- bis 337.-, und schlossen am unteren Ende, mit 332.40 Dollar pro Unze. Also fast am Tiefpunkt der in dieser gestrigen Aktion des Gold Cabals beschlossenen Range.

Nachdem ich diesen 5.- Dollar Spike gesehen habe, habe ich eigentlich zuerst noch befürchtet, dass das Cabal den Goldpreis noch weiter runter drücken könnte. Das ist nicht passiert. Entweder ist das nicht im Sinne des Gold Cabals, oder sie konnten es wegen der zu erwartenden weiter erstarkten physischen Nachfrage ganz einfach nicht riskieren, da das Gold auf Papier, vom Gold Cartel ja auch geliefert werden muss, falls es von den Käufern der Gold Futures Kontrakten verlangt wird.

Sobald die Investorenwelt richtig erfasst hat, dass es Krieg hin, oder her, überhaupt keinen Grund gibt von steigenden Aktien Notierungen zu träumen, und die Aktienkurse demzufolge ihren Downturn wieder aufnehmen, die Goldnotierungen wieder stark anziehen werden. Dass die Goldminen Aktien dadurch profitieren werden, liegt auch auf der Hand.

Wehe es entwickelt sich durch den Krieg im Irak, ein Flächenbrand, oder der Krieg kann nicht wie von den USA/England geplant, schnell gewonnen werden, werden sich noch viele Anleger sehr bald wünschen, bereits jetzt in physisches Gold investiert zu haben.

Zur Zeit gerade wieder einmal mehr sterben Menschen auf Befehl, auf welcher Seite, und aus welchen Gründen auch immer, ich habe grosse Mühe darin irgend einen Sinn zu erkennen. Es geht bei diesem Irak Krieg um Wirtschaft, das Oel, um Fiat Money, Dollar oder Euro, und wohl zuletzt auch um den Terrorismus.

Die Menschheit hat heute wieder einmal mehr verloren, wie auch immer dieser Krieg im nahen Osten auch ausgehen wird.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.usagold.com

The Afternoon Gold Report...

by Jon Warner

March 20, 2003 (usagold.com)

New York spot gold settled lower $332.40 an ounce down $3.20 an ounce from yesterday’s close. "Now that the war has begun, it is evident that all, or perhaps virtually all, of the `war premium` has left the gold market and we are now trading at levels where gold offers `value,`" said Leonard Kaplan, president of Prospector Asset Management. Kaplan remains "quite bullish" on gold over the longer term due to the underlying fundamentals of this market, which include the recent decline of the U.S. dollar, budget deficits and falling gold production. "With the future of the U.S. dollar rather uncertain, with the equity markets now in their fourth-straight year of decline, with the burgeoning federal budget deficit, and with the cyclical paradigm financial shift into hard assets, gold looks quite attractive at current price levels and should see price increases over the next few years," he said. "If there is any retaliation on U.S. soil, gold is going to take off again. I don`t think it`s over for gold," Mark Barnard, vice president at Mitsui Global Precious Metals in New York, said late Wednesday as the bombing started. "Clearly the financial markets think this is clarity. And if the markets are wrong, if this is more than a one-week event, it pushes gold back up again," he said. Earlier, the "gold market sunk under the premise that the need for investors to seek safe havens for their money could by muted if the war with Iraq transpires better than anticipated," said Erik Gebhard, president of Altavest Worldwide Trading. But "war action hour-by-hour will determine the direction that equities, the U.S. dollar and therefore precious metals will take," he said.

London gold was fixed this afternoon at $335.80 an ounce, up from $335.50 an ounce at the morning fixing. "Uncertainty is the order of the day. Gold is taking its direction from the dollar," said John Reade, metals analyst at UBS Warburg. "The market will now react to the perceived progress of the war with a quick, clean victory likely to lead to some selling pressure in the near term," Reade said. "Gold...is going to remain very volatile for the duration of the war. Opinion is growing that the war will be over very quickly and this is limiting the safe-haven value of commodities such as gold," said James Moore, analyst at TheBullionDesk.com. "It seems that the market has already priced in a swift and successful end to the war," said Barclays Capital in a report. "Gold remained relatively calm in the face of the outbreak of war with Iraq (but) bad news could still result in a spike higher, particularly if the dollar continues to weaken," it said.
Despite the losses, bullion was prevented from making deeper losses by weakness in the dollar and by signs of good physical demand for the metal. A weaker dollar is traditionally supportive for gold, which is for some investors an insurance policy in troubled times. "For those who still want to play, gold`s key technical parameters are set by the long-term moving averages with the 100-day MA pegged at $342.50 and the 200-day MA at $328.75," Standard Bank London said in a report.

Earlier spot gold closed at $336.50 an ounce on Thursday in Hong Kong, down $2.80 an ounce from Wednesday`s close of $339.30. Charles Dowsett, head of precious metals trading at ABN Amro Australia Ltd., said ``It`s buy the rumor and sell the fact. The uncertainty has been taken out of the market and the gold price has come off. ``The longer this campaign lasts the better it is for gold and probably the worse it is for the U.S. dollar. The market has factored in a repeat of 1991 where it was over in`` a matter of weeks, he said. ``The external factor is the terrorist factor. If it`s in the mainland U.S. it will have a greater affect on the market`` he added. "This has got to be the most telegraphed war of all time," said David Thurtell, a commodity strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. And with all financial markets prepared for a war to start in the first half of 2003, gold market players have been trying to pre-empt being caught wrong-footed by looking at the bullion`s performance in the 1991 war, he said. Looking further ahead, Mr Thurtell said gold positive fundamentals should continue to support the price. "They haven`t gone away, the US dollar, yes its spruiked back up in recent few days, but we`re still expecting weakness there, gold producers are still unwinding hedge books" he said. "At the moment, the Japanese market is showing no reaction," said Yukuji Sonoda, precious metals analyst at Daiichi Commodities. "In my personal opinion, everything depends on how long the war will go on. All of the newspapers are predicting a short-term resolution, but I don`t think anybody can presume whether it will be long or short" he said. "Spot bullion showed little reaction to the start of the war as most people had already squared out their open positions," said Osamu Ikeda, general manager of Tanaka Kikinzoku Kogyo K.K., Japan`s biggest bullion house. "And they are waiting for reactions from other financial markets, such as the dollar or stocks, and the outlook for the global economy."

Two of the world`s biggest gold producers said Thursday that the bullion price will rise in coming months, despite recent selling linked to the start of the Iraqi conflict. U.S.-based Newmont Mining Corp., the world`s biggest producer, and South Africa`s Gold Fields Ltd., the fourth largest, said the price recovery will be largely linked to concerns about the U.S. economy. Analysts say that the so-called war premium in gold has vanished over the past few weeks as investors take the view that the U.S.-led war in Iraq will be successful and short-lived. Ian Cockerill, chief executive of Gold Fields, said that there is still an "overwhelmingly positive" argument for buying gold in an economic environment where the U.S. dollar is predicted to soften further. "The war is an event that is taking place, but it is superimposed on what is a weakening U.S. economy," he told reporters at the Paydirt gold conference in Perth. "America has been on a spending binge and at some stage someone has to pay for that, and that is going to lead to the reality that the dollar is overvalued," he added. "And if you believe in a weakening U.S. dollar then, by definition, you should believe in an improving gold price." Cockerill said investors are betting that the war will finish swiftly. "But I don`t believe that we are going to see any real change in the global financial markets - the seeds for real economic problems are there and are likely to stay there." John Dow, managing director of Newmont Australia, said that the gold price has lost some of its war-related glitter in recent weeks. "But underlying that are the fundamental financial conditions that are going to keep the price of gold probably somewhere where it is now, or maybe even (cause) further increases," Dow said. "We are in a long-term upward trend and the forces that are causing it are only getting worse," he added.


GEOPOLITICAL NEWS:

President Bush unleashed a war to topple Saddam Hussein on Thursday with dawn air strikes on Baghdad but the Iraqi leader responded defiantly, denouncing the "criminal Bush" and firing missiles at Kuwait. Announcing the start of a campaign to oust Saddam and disarm Iraq, Bush said "selected targets" were hit. But U.S. officials said an all-out air and ground offensive might be days away. "These are the opening stages of what will be a broad and concerted campaign," Bush said in a televised address about two hours after the expiry of a U.S. ultimatum to Iraq. Three hours after the raids began, a grim-faced Saddam appeared on state television in military uniform, black beret and thick-rimmed glasses, urging Iraqis to defend their country. "The criminal little Bush has committed a crime against humanity," he said, reading from notes. It was not certain the broadcast was live but Saddam mentioned when the attack began. Several hours after the U.S. raids on Baghdad, a Kuwaiti defense ministry spokesman said an Iraqi Scud and two smaller missiles struck northern Kuwait. No casualties were reported.

U.S. forces launched intense artillery barrages near the Iraq-Kuwait border Thursday night as troops made final preparations for an invasion of Iraq. Reuters eyewitnesses said that explosions were reported along the border and in the direction of the southern Iraqi city of Basra.

The Arab satellite television channel Al-Arabiya reported that fires had erupted in Iraq`s valuable al-Rumeila field west of Basra and just north of the Kuwaiti border. Orange flames could be seen Thursday on the horizon in the direction of the southern Iraqi oil center Basra, and U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said three or four oil wells may have been set afire. Even before the war began, the Pentagon expressed fears that Saddam Hussein had planned to sabotage Iraq`s oil fields by booby-trapping wells so one person could blow them up. A loss of oil from Iraq -- home to the world`s second-largest reserves -- could crimp supplies for importing countries, and deny U.S. and British governments an asset they hope will help pay for postwar efforts. Iraq`s Rumeila South oil field near the Kuwaiti border ranks as one of the country`s largest, with more than 5 billion barrels in reserves. It is near a similar-sized field nearby known as Rumeila North, and both are on and near strategic pipelines that pump oil out of the country.

About 1,000 troops from the Army`s 82nd Airborne Division were combing southeastern Afghanistan for members of Al Qaeda, military officials said. “Operation Valiant Strike” began with an early morning air assault assisted by a ground convoy in the remote, mountainous area of southern Kandahar province, King said. He declined to say what the goal of the operation was or whether it targeted the elusive Al Qaeda leader Usama bin Laden. The operation was likely to continue for two or three days, said Lt. Coryll Angel, a U.S. military spokesman in Kandahar. The assault was one of the biggest in Afghanistan since Operation Anaconda just over a year ago, King said. That eight-day battle pitted hundreds of Taliban and Al Qaeda fighters against thousands of American and allied Afghan troops.


ECONOMIC NEWS:

The Labor Department said first-time claims, a guide to the job market and the pace of layoffs, fell for the second straight week, dropping to 421,000 in the March 15 week from a revised 425,000 for the prior week and in line with Wall Street economists` forecasts of 420,000. The closely watched four-week moving average -- a more reliable barometer of employment market trends -- rose for the seventh consecutive week to 424,750 from 421,000 in the previous week and to its highest since measuring 429,500 in the May 4, 2002 week.


Comment: Gold traded in a volatile session being up about $2.00 over yesterday’s close only to close down $3.20. Gold, oil, and bonds traded lower at the end of the gold trading session while the equities markets and U.S. dollar gained. The war in Iraq is dominating the news for now even though the speculators and funds have apparently been shaken out for the most part. The price of gold will likely continue to trade in a volatile market depending on how current events play out depending if there is much Iraqi resistance and how much devastation occurs in the oil fields. Once the uncertainty of war, damage to the Iraqi oil fields, and possible terrorist acts are removed from the equation we will see the precious metals markets focus once again on the deteriorating economy, rising debt, and the overvalued U.S. dollar. Long term the precious metals are poised for further gains on the fundamentals of declining production and strong physical demand.


- Jon H. Warner -


E-Mail the current report to a friend or to yourself.
__________________________
Jon Warner is a professional geologist with nearly 24 years in exploration and project development in both mining and petroleum. Mr. Warner brings to the table an impressive industry contact list, thorough knowledge of the precious metals and energy markets as well as a practical understanding of gold`s role in the private investment portfolio. His strong knowledge in these fields has been demonstrated at the USAGOLD Discussion Forum where he posts on a regular basis as Black Blade.



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[niemandweiss]

Die Hoffnung stirbt zuletzt

[ThaiGuru]

March 20 – Gold $332.40 down $3.20 – Silver $4.40

America!

"The power of accurate observation is frequently called cynicism by those who don`t have it."
- George Bernard Shaw (1856-1950)


Gold Cartel forces brutalized gold into new low ground for their price-capping move. All attempts at rallies were violently smashed. Even a .44 move up in the euro made no difference to gold’s plight. Little is going to help gold and silver except the demise of the crooks that have corrupted, and continue to corrupt, the free market system.

I barely watched the market screen today, or checked the Kitco spot price. What for? It was ordained by Greenspan/US Treasury that the US bullion banks would take gold down. We are right back to where we were (price action-wise) after the Washington Agreement was announced when gold shot up $87 in two weeks and then was annihilated by The Gold Cartel. Straight up, bashed back down. That was the case then and it is so now. Vet Café members will remember BOE head Eddie George’s statement they (The Gold Cartel) were facing the "abyss."

Seems they were facing that same abyss again last month. Once Treasury Secretary Paul O’Neill was fired the first week of December, gold soared $74, in slower and managed fashion than in 1999. Enter John Snow, new man in charge of the un-American ESF. Gold has been obliterated ever since, making a mockery of the notion, once again, that we have free markets in America. No free markets, no free press, corporate scandal after scandal. Is that a nation to be proud of? Hardly! America is in a downhill spiral that gets uglier by the month and year.

How lost is America? VERY! At least, at the top of the heap we sure are. If it were not for a fax received this morning from a fellow Café member, I never would have seen the following UPI story. Maybe you caught it somewhere, not me? It was buried. The White House and main stream press in the US are on a roll. Dissent, such as GATA’s fight against the establishment Wall Street bullion-banking crowd, has been suppressed for over four years. We all know that. It now appears news of serious dissent against the Iraq war will be suppressed too, when it comes from an insider, one who could deal a serious blow to Administration claims of the pluses for starting an unprovoked war. Excerpts from yesterday’s UPI story:

Top White House anti-terror boss resigns

By P Mitchell Prothero
From the Washington Politics & Policy Desk
Published 3/19/2003 5:37 PM

WASHINGTON, March 19 (UPI) – The top National Security Council official in the war on terrorism resigned this week for what a NSC spokesman said were personal reasons, but intelligence sources say the move reflects concern that the looming war with Iraq is hurting the fight against terrorism…

"Hardly a surprise," said one former intelligence official. "We have sacrificed a war on terror for a war with Iraq. I don’t blame Randy (Beers) at all. This just reflects the widespread thought the war on terror is being set aside for the war with Iraq at the expense of our military and intel resources and the relationships with our allies."..

"This is a very intriguing decision (by Beers)," said the author and intelligence expert James Bamford. "There is a predominant belief in the intelligence community that an invasion of Iraq will cause more terrorism than it will prevent. There is also a tremendous amount of embarrassment by intelligence professionals that there have been so many lies out of the administration –by the president, (Vice President Dick) Cheney and (Secretary of State Colin) Powell – over Iraq."…

"It is absurd that the president of the United States mentioned in a speech before the world information from phony documents and no one got fired," Bamford said. "That alone has offended intelligence professionals throughout the services."…..

Beers joined the NSC in August after heading the State Department`s International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Branch, where he ran the Pian Columbian program to fight narco-traffickers in that country. Beers served both Bush Administrations as well as serving in similiar capacities with both the Clinton and Reagan administrations.

-END-

This is our own intelligence people speaking. Shouldn’t this story have been big news? Not in the Peoples Republic of America. It’s one big whitewash, just like the recent financial market meeting that didn’t happen between the Japanese and our Fed/Treasury. Excerpts from Sean Corrigan’s wonderful piece that was emailed earlier today:

A deal was struck last week in the United States between a former Japanese finance minister and the head of the U.S. central bank, the Federal Reserve`s Alan Greenspan.

"There was an agreement between Japan and the UnitedStates to take action cooperatively in foreign exchange, STOCKS and OTHER MARKETS (bonds? GOLD?) if the markets face a crisis," Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuo Fukuda said.

In an oblique kind of confirmation, good old Reform-Man himself, Finance and Economics super-minister Heizo Takenaka also said the Bank of Japan and the regional stock exchanges would be "watching the markets closely during the current Iraq crisis."

"We will follow the prime minister`s instructions, cooperate with the Bank of Japan and exchanges, and respond appropriately," he said.

But, this is all so-o-o embarrassing for that temple of free economic activity, the United States, where all talk of the activities of the President`s Working Group on Markets, the so-called Plunge Protection Team, is confined to "X-Files" buffs, gold bugs -- and -- oh, half those working on Wall Street, once safely ensconced behind a large scotch at their favourite bar, safely out of earshot of the trading floor manager or the regulators.

In the best tradition of the REAL Iron Chancellor, Otto von Bismarck, we know never to believe anything until it`s been officially denied, so we were pleased to note that U.S. Treasury Department spokesman Tony Fratto did just that, stating: `The administration`s views on markets on interventions are well-known and there has been no change in our view.`

Bloomberg reported that Fratto also refuted a report that Japanese Cabinet Adviser Haruhiko Kuroda met last week with Treasury Secretary Snow during a visit to Washington, despite Fukuda himself claiming that he and Snow had

"talked about the necessity of taking crisis management measures in currency and stock markets."

Snow, it seems, was "away" and Kuroda met with other, conveniently unnamed Treasury officials instead, Fratto said, and, in any case, the "discussions were routine and touched on a range of economic and financial issues."

Have the Japanese managed to appoint themselves a senior official who is either befuddled with senility, or who simply cannot tell one gaijin -- however important -- from another, do you think?

Or, rather, has Fratto based his comments on material from the newly-redundant Iraqi Nuclear Weapons Fabrication Plant, where the State Department fabricates the evidence (not the actual WMDs!) for Secretary Powell to brandish at United Nations meetings?

-END-

The two stories above are stunning when put together and tell a very frightening about the depraved depths the leadership in America is taking us. "What’s Love Have To Do With It," sang Tina Turner. "What’s Truth Have To Do With It," belts out the Administration and Wall Street.

Gold represents the truth about the real state of financial market affairs. That’s the way most people view its price action, which became very apparent based on media gold price commentary in recent weeks. Thus, the George Orwell crowd in Washington/New York are crushing the gold price at the expense of American principles. A rising gold price is a negative barometer reading on America’s financial markets. It suggests they are ailing. At least, that is the way the investing public views a rising gold price. Thus, gold is crushed again. The political/financial powers in America don’t want the truth to be known that the US really does have serious financial market problems.

It is a battle the bad guys are winning at the moment and it could go on for a while. But, it won’t last. The damage they have done to our financial markets due to their rigging operations over the years is far too extensive. All The Gold Cartel is doing is delaying their demise and ensuring a gold price that will rise much higher than $800/1,000 per ounce I have looked for.

The Working Group on Financial Markets is bombing gold as our brilliant military bombs Iraq. That is where the comparison stops. Our soldiers and military officers are brave, fine people, the best of what America has to offer. The Gold Cartel are cowards that have corrupted all that America stands for. They can only deal with their wayward ways by manipulating markets and suppressing focused, serious dissent. God help us!

One patriotic American Café member put it this way:

Bill,

No doubt! Various governments and agencies around the world have a strangle hold on gold. The recent action in the markets along with the war has made me see something that I have never quite put into words for anyone else. I actually think I am beginning to see why extreme foreigners can hate us and are forced to do what they do.

Many of your recent rants talk of, "carrying the gold cartel out on a stretcher". I assume they get carried out not because of exhaustion but maybe from physical harm? I will admit it! I have become so upset sometimes I want physical harm brought on the folks responsible. The obvious corruption and rigging of our financial markets is beginning to affect me personally. What if people around the world viewed all of America as this way because some American corporation and military dealings had affected them in an even more personal way? What if they lost lives and livelihoods and not just some investment money?

Can you see my point? Don`t get me wrong. I don`t condone any "terrorist" act that kills or maims people. All I am trying to convey is that some people have been pushed well beyond their breaking point for many years and their frustration is an attempt to "cleanse" the system. Total destruction and a clean slate. Not a pretty picture.

-END-

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

Thursday March 20 2003

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $7.25, PM $7.73, with world gold at $334 and $335. Extremely high: well above legal import point. Reuters carries a fresh story today to the effect that Indian importers have resumed buying, attributing this to today’s lower prices. Interestingly, the Rupee, which has been so firm this year had to be supported by the Reserve Bank today: anxieties over the war are blamed.

Today it was Tokyo’s turn to experience the sudden, violent selling which has been so much a feature of the gold market over the past two weeks. About half an hour after TOCOM opened, and so a little more than half an hour before news of the raid on Iraq appeared, gold was suddenly smashed down some $4 to as low as $331.50. This was particularly odd as at the same time the dollar spiked up, which normally would raise the yen price. Stops were triggered, but commentators agree that physical buying stopped the rout, and later Indian interest gradually edged gold back up again. $US gold at the TOCOM close was $334, $1.50 below the NY close; the active contract was down 7 yen. Volume was equal to 42,287 Comex lots, a jump of 22.4% above Wednesday: Reuters reports open interest to be identical to yesterday which is probably an error. Japan is closed tomorrow. (Volume in NY yesterday was 38,473 lots: open interest fell 4311 contracts.)

It is pointless to deny the presence in the gold market from time to time of a brutally aggressive seller, who certainly is not behaving like a proceeds-maximizing long. Given the response of the physical market, whoever it is will have to work hard to avoid seeing gold rise out of the $330s. Someone is working hard today: estimated Comex volume by 11am was already 30,000 contracts.

JB

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The DOW and DOG closed slightly higher even though lousy US economic news keeps pouring in:

Washington, March 20 (Bloomberg) -- The number of U.S. workers filing new claims for state unemployment benefits held above 400,000 for a fifth straight week, showing the pace of firings accelerated leading up to the war with Iraq.

Initial jobless claims totaled 421,000 in the week that ended Friday and 425,000 the prior week, the Labor Department said. Claims in excess of 400,000 are a sign of weak employment conditions, economists said. The four-week average for claims, a less volatile indicator, was the highest since May 2002.

U.S. February Leading Economic Indicators Index Falls 0.4%

Washington, March 20 (Bloomberg) -- The index of leading U.S. economic indicators in February fell the most in five months, showing the economy was weakening prior to the U.S attack on Iraq.

The Conference Board`s gauge of the performance of the economy over the next three to six months fell 0.4 percent in February after rising a revised 0.2 percent in January. The decline was the largest since a 0.5 percent decrease in September of last year.

Falling stock prices, the weakest consumer confidence in a decade and rising jobless claims pushed down the index, as war worries dimmed the outlook for the economy. Economists say that the pace of growth in coming months may hinge on the outcome of military action.

WASHINGTON, March 20 (Reuters) - The U.S. government saw a budget shortfall of $96.33 billion in February, the Treasury said on Thursday, adding to an expected record annual deficit even before the costs of the war with Iraq are tallied.

In its monthly budget statement, the Treasury said the budget gap for the first five months of the fiscal year, which began in October, totaled $193.94 billion, up from $67.68 billion in the same period in the 2002 budget year. -END-

Chris Powell circulated this email last night:

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Kitco has an essay of market timing advice from our friend James Turk of GoldMoney and the Freemarket Gold and Money Report. It`s titled "This May Be the Low" and you can find it here:

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Turk/mar192003.html

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

Nick Ferris and J-Pacific Gold have supported GATA for many years now. They picked up some coverage in a Tim Wood piece at the Mineweb. Geologists working on this project in Nevada were jumping up and down with excitement about a big discovery a couple of months ago. Placer Doom’s management is playing it down.

>Placer Dome’s deepening Nevada mystery

By: Tim Wood

Posted: 2003/03/18 Tue 17:00 EST | © Mineweb 1997-2003

NEW YORK -- Considerable information has been leaked about Placer Dome’s [PDG] "ET Blue" discovery in Nevada that could prolong the life of its Cortez-Pipeline mine. However, Placer is making a point of playing the discovery down and has categorically denied that ET Blue is linked to negotiations with Teck-Cominco [TEK] over the Buckhorn Joint Venture….

Whatever the outcome of Placer and Teck’s differences, the immediate beneficiaries of all the activity may be companies with nearby claims, notably Vancouver based J-Pacific Gold [JPN] which has the Golden Trend… - END-

Speaking of gold stocks, The Charleston Voice sent the following out today. Golden Star is my biggest holding and has a substantial following in The Café, so I am bringing it to your attention:

Of the handful of gold stocks and their charts we follow irregularly, Golden Star Resources appears to be closest to uncoiling the soonest for a run to its high of 2.34.

GSS has crossed over the shorter term 18-Day MA & is heading back down toward it. Remember it is a buy when it again goes back up through it, setting your Sell Stop just below the 18MDA. We will next watch for the confirmation of the 18 MDA crossing over the 40MDA.

The pullback to 1.63 today from 1.81 is precisely a 50% retrace from the 1.44 to 1.81 move. This is right to the penny for a Fibonacci move. GSS appears to be sitting right on the 18MDA. But, remember, Fib strategy allows for a .382, .618 or a 100% retrace. What this means is GSS could very well go back and test 1.44. That not holding it could go to 1.32 its Dec low.

We feel it`s more likely that it pull back to 1.58, a Fibonacci retrace of .618, and the first day of its breakout area. At that point or very close to it, the price of GSS will then cross back over the 18MDA, and set a new bottom pivot for the next Fibonacci move up and beyond.

Gold itself should be behaving similarly, just a little behind the move in stocks.

-END-

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

Dave Lewis

http://www.chaos-onomics.com

Gold has now all but retraced its entire breakout move above $330. More than likely, stops will be taken out below $330. Demoralization, as well as disgust, is understandably high. Therefore, it is important to see the forest through the trees. Gold and the gold shares are a big picture, once in a lifetime trade. Café members that have been in gold and the shares have done very well the past years. That is compounded by many vet Café members that exited their general stock market positions YEARS ago. They have saved a bundle.

When gold moves, it tends to do so in streak fashion. My guess is we are looking at the same kind of price action once the war subsides. It is the psychology over the war and the synchronistic price pounding by The Gold Cartel that has devastated gold. After the cessation of hostilities, the fundamentals to propel gold higher will be even stronger than before. Whatever gold it took for the cabal to take gold down will be gone, consumed by voracious buyers in the East and Middle East. Can they come up with another tranche? Yes! But, the run-up to $388 was not for nothing. Their supply is running low, or that would not have occurred. Some day soon, they won’t be able to scrape up anymore and that day is probably not too far off.

[ThaiGuru]

[ThaiGuru]

@Tippgeber1

Wenn Du in Dein Auto einsteigst, den Gang einlegst, und abfahren willst, geht das auch nicht so einfach, wenn Dir jemand 2 Keile vor die Räder gelegt hat!

Was kannst Du dagegen machen?

Richtig, Du kannst wenn Du bequem bist, nach jemand rufen der Dir hilft die Keile zu entfernen, oder falls Du in Eile bist, es auch selbst tun.

Lass uns die Keile selber entfernen!

Gold strong buy!

[derunsichtbarefreund]

thai guru

seien wir uns doch ehrlich. nachdem wir miterleben dürfen wieviel herr bush von uno und völkerrecht hält bin ich fest davon überzeugt das er auch " lösungen ", egal ob jemand dagegen protestiert, findet, daß liefervereinbarungen nicht eingehalten werden müssen.

mit verträgen hat es der gringo nicht so.

was ich aber auch weiter nicht verstehe ist folgendes. jeder weiß das usa nur über die finanzen zu besiegen ist. wieso gibt es von den araber und/oder chinesen kein anti-PPT oder massives tauschen von wertlosen us-dollarbeständen in pysischen goldkäufen. gleichzeitig stellt china - entgegen den lieferbedingungen - seine silberlieferungen mit sofortiger wirkung ein. gleiches gilt für russland .

innerhalb von stunden würde sich das marode system von manipulationen und sonstiges in luft auflösen.

mit den eigenen mittel die gringos bekämpfen. das ist das einzige was die verstehen. sonst seh ich keinen anderen weg. aber es wird wohl nichts weil wir nur alle schwätzen und zuschauen. genauso wirds später mit saudi-arabien, iran und ich weiß nicht wer alles noch sein.

da wirds dann wieder protestnoten geben, vielleicht auch ein blauen brief aus brüssel und das wars. der mops regiert wieder

DUF

[manfred1_I]

Dollar Up, Gold Down in Europe
Source: Associated Press
Publication date: 2003-03-21


The U.S. dollar rose against other major currencies in European trading Friday. Gold prices fell.
The euro was quoted at $1.0548 in late European trading, down from $1.0626 Thursday. Later, in midday trading in New York, the euro traded at $1.0548.

Other dollar rates in Europe, compared with late Thursday, included 121.43 Japanese yen, up from 120.06; 1.3989 Swiss francs, up from 1.3841; and 1.4893 Canadian dollars, up from 1.4797.

The British pound was quoted at $1.5652, down from $1.5675.

In midday trading in New York the dollar bought 121.38 yen and the pound was worth $1.5660.

Gold closed in London at $333.10 bid per troy ounce, down from $335.00 on Thursday.

In Zurich the bid price was $332.00, down from $335.75.

Gold fell $3.00 in Hong Kong to $333.50.

[ThaiGuru]

The Afternoon Gold Report...

by Jon Warner

March 21, 2003 (usagold.com)

New York spot gold settled lower $325.50 an ounce down $6.90 an ounce from yesterday’s close. The price of gold fell in late trade after rumors swirled through financial markets that Iraqi president Saddam Hussein had been killed in the first U.S. air strike on Wednesday evening. U.S. and UK officials said they could not confirm. Traders said the latest surge in the dollar was driven by rumors that Saddam Hussein was killed in the initial bombing of Baghdad at dawn local time on Thursday. "We`ve cleared the decks of any concerns about Iraq, at least on a temporary basis. Who knows what will happen later on, but so far it looks like things have progressed well," said John Tyree, a futures broker Rosenthal-Collins in New York. "You`re seeing tremendous liquidation and short selling as well, I imagine. A lot of people are liquidating under the $330 level," he said. Large explosions were heard and seen in and near Baghdad as U.S. officials said the major air war known and “shock and awe” had begun. "It`s starting to look like a lot of the war premium is already out of gold and barring any surprises it could hang in this range," said Ian MacDonald, head of bullion trading at Commerzbank. "You`ve got a short-term issue here in as much as buying patterns can be very much disrupted from the Middle East, being a big consumer of gold in the last year or so," he said adding that in the 1991 Gulf War Middle East consumption was interrupted for a few weeks. "Uncertainty still surrounds the inevitable pocket of resistance that lies ahead as [U.S. and allied] troops move closer to Iraq`s capital," said John Person, head financial analyst at Infinity Brokerage Services. Gold prices will likely hold near $330, finding support from continued budget deficits and the "potential for a stage of re-flation" following recent strength in global energy prices, said Person. Gold will remain a "headline investment favorite among value investors," Person said. Charles de Vaulx, co-manager of the First Eagle Gold Fund notes that the current, short-term Federal Funds rate of 1.25% paired with the current “official” inflation rate of 2.4% equals real interest of negative 1.15%. Gold can look good by comparison.

London gold was fixed this afternoon at $333.50 an ounce, up from $332.55 an ounce at the morning fixing. "The market has been relatively quiet in Asia this morning on light volume as many market participants have taken to the sidelines while `news from the front` dominates the global financial markets," Standard Bank London said in a report. "What has triggered this dollar and equity buying is the end of diplomatic wrangling and incessant debate. All that tension was alleviated when we went to war, but clearly they have not gone away," said John McCarthy, director of foreign exchange at ING Barings in New York. Traders sent the dollar soaring on rumors that Saddam had been killed by bombing at the start of the campaign, but McCarthy voiced skepticism over the current rally. "I can`t say anyone is saying tide has turned and dollar has definitely reversed course," McCarthy added. "I`m not sure we warrant a reversal of the trend but we certainly warrant a reexamination of whether the euro belongs above $1.10." Kevin Norrish, head of commodities research at Barclays Capital said: "The gold price now looks vulnerable and offers little of the perceived financial security that sustained its rally through the first two months of the year. "While we maintain that price risks remain skewed to the upside on the market assumption of a brief and successful war, the gold price is very close to the technically important support level of 330-332 usd/oz which has not been breached since mid-December. "A close below 330 usd/oz could trigger technical selling and force the price down further," he warned.

Earlier spot gold closed at $333.50 an ounce on Friday in Hong Kong, down $3.00 from Thursday`s close of $336.50. The Tokyo precious metals market is closed on Friday for Vernal Equinox Day, a national holiday. Trading resumes on Monday. "We are seeing some physical interest," said Ellison Chu, senior manager at Standard Bank London in Hong Kong. Gold prices could easily trend lower, Chu said, and while many shared this view, they would continue to buy physical gold in small quantities at this level, Chu added. "We are still going to see a choppy market," Chu said. There was both panic selling then panic buying in Asia on Thursday as the war on Iraq began, but volumes were not that heavy, traders said. "There is support at $332 and resistance at $340," said Pauline Hung, chief dealer at Scotia Mocatta in Hong Kong.

Ian Cockerill, chief executive officer of Gold Fields told delegates at an Aussie gold conference in Perth yesterday “Clearly a reversal of flows of money into America as its economy slows down would see a continuing weakening of the U/S. dollar.” And he said, “We can see that the dollar has started on its downward trend.” Cockerill said that the U.S. and European consumer spending binge would drop off and therefore heighten indebtedness and keep the downward pressure on industrial production growth. “The main economic engines of the world are actually not in good shape,” he said. “At some stage someone has to pay for that, which could lead to the reality that the U.S. dollar is overvalued.” Cockerill said “Global markets continue to decline together with the U.S. dollar and there’s nothing on the horizon to suggest an imminent change.”


GEOPOLITICAL NEWS:

The United States has begun a major air war against Iraq as American and British thrust north from Kuwait toward Baghdad, a U.S. official said on Friday. The official, who asked not to be identified, spoke as bombs and missiles began to strike Baghdad for the third successive night in a war to remove President Saddam Hussein from Power. Earlier in the day U.S. B-52 bombers took off from a base in Britain, apparently headed for Iraq. U.S. defense officials have said upward of 3,000 satellite-guided bombs dropped by aircraft and cruise missiles launched from sea and air would be part of a massive aerial assault dubbed by the Pentagon as "shock and awe."

U.S. and British forces captured key Iraqi oilfields and ports intact, calming market fears of widespread destruction by Iraqi troops. A big wave of extra OPEC oil arriving in the West, replacing supply lost from war-torn Iraq, also helped ease the threat of shortages. British troops secured a position on Iraq`s Faw peninsula on the Gulf, which is a strategic oil export route controlling two key major ports. British Defense Chief Sir Michael Boyce said all key components of the southern Iraqi oilfields, which pump half the country`s output, had been safely secured. Only seven oil wellheads had been torched in the south, less than the 30 previously reported, although oil-filled trenches were also ablaze, he said.

U.S. Marines raised the Stars and Stripes flag over the new port of Umm Qasr on Friday after taking the installation in the face of only light resistance. After calling in British artillery support to break Iraqi resistance that pinned them down on the Kuwaiti border for two hours, the Marines made swift progress to the new port.

The crash of an American military helicopter in Kuwait on Friday killed eight British and four U.S. soldiers, a British military spokesman said. "Regrettably during the deployment phase a U.S. helicopter crashed," British military spokesman Lieutenant Colonel Ben Curry told Sky TV in the Gulf. "There were eight UK servicemen from 3 Commando Brigade and four U.S. aircrew aboard. None survived the crash." Curry added there was no evidence the U.S. CH-46E helicopter, taking part in the assault on Iraq`s Faw peninsula, crashed because of enemy fire.

Thousands of U.S. and Afghan soldiers combed mountain caves and searched houses in southern Afghanistan on Friday on the second day of a major military operation against Taliban rebels, Afghan officials said. "Operation Valiant Strike" was launched in the Samigar Mountains of southeastern Afghanistan on Thursday morning, less than an hour before the first U.S. air strikes on Iraq. Afghan officials and military commanders said the Americans had arrested 12 people, including members of Afghanistan`s former Taliban regime and renegade warlord Gulbuddin Hekmatyar`s Hezb-e-Islami movement.


ECONOMIC NEWS:

The CPI, the main U.S. inflation gauge, rose 0.6 percent last month, the Labor Department said. It was the biggest gain since a matching rise in January 2001 and was a touch above the 0.5 percent increase expected on Wall Street. Energy prices shot up 5.9 percent, the largest increase since June 2000, while food costs staged their biggest climb since June 1996, gaining 0.7 percent. However, the so-called core CPI, which strips out food and energy, edged up just 0.1 percent, a notch below the 0.2 percent economists had expected.

The U.S. government saw a budget shortfall of $96.33 billion in February, the Treasury said on Thursday, adding to an expected record annual deficit even before the costs of the war with Iraq are tallied. In its monthly budget statement, the Treasury said the budget gap for the first five months of the fiscal year, which began in October, totaled $193.94 billion, up from $67.68 billion in the same period in the 2002 budget year. The gap was the largest monthly shortfall on record, according to Treasury.


Comment: Gold and oil both traded lower as a “war premium” is being priced in the U.S. dollar and in the equities markets on word that Saddam Hussein and his sons are dead or incapacitated. Whether Saddam is dead or not the war is effectively over as no one appears to be in control. A new wave of “irrational exuberance” has shifted the “war premium” from gold and oil to the U.S. dollar and the stock market. The lack of effective resistance to coalition forces has led speculators to build a large “war premium” in the U.S. dollar and the stock markets on light trading volume. The lack of political cohesion among the Euroland countries over the Iraq war has weakened the euro currency and perhaps the E.U. as well while the Japanese yen isn’t even in the picture any more as the currency is essentially worthless by comparison. Now that the coalition has won the war against Iraq who will pay the bill for military action and the rehabilitation of the country? Precious metals can be expected to regain value once the “war premium” built into the U.S. dollar and stock market come off once the Iraq war is resolved and the costs are tallied, and the focus once again be on the weak global economy and rising deficits.


- Jon H. Warner -


E-Mail the current report to a friend or to yourself.
__________________________
Jon Warner is a professional geologist with nearly 24 years in exploration and project development in both mining and petroleum. Mr. Warner brings to the table an impressive industry contact list, thorough knowledge of the precious metals and energy markets as well as a practical understanding of gold`s role in the private investment portfolio. His strong knowledge in these fields has been demonstrated at the USAGOLD Discussion Forum where he posts on a regular basis as Black Blade.



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[mickym [VIP]]

Golden Bull Buy Signals 2



wieder ein neuer Hamailton:

http://www.zealllc.com/2003/goldbuy2.htm

Gruss Mic

[ThaiGuru]

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The DOW exploded 235 points to 8521, while the DOG climbed 18 ½ to 1421. The Café’s Sarge notes: "The DOW has eight consecutive up days. That has not happened since 1996 Bill; 7 years! We’ve added 1000 points or 12 % to the DOW in a week, its best since 1982."

How about that CNBC! The last few days that gold has been crushed, they have been putting up the gold price all day long. That never happened on the way up, nor any other time I can recall.

Speaking of CNBC, I won’t be watching the obnoxious, stock market cheerleaders Kudlow and Cramer this evening jumping up and down for joy. Prior to the rigging days, gold would have rallied $30 on a day like this. Had we been jumping up and down for joy on this day of calculated death and destruction, both of those clowns would have disparaged us unmercifully – and rightfully so. If someone does check these gleeful propagandists out this evening, please spit on the arrogant jerks for me.

On a lighter note:

"You know the world is going crazy when the best rapper is a white guy, the best golfer is a black guy, France is accusing the US of arrogance and Germany doesn`t want to go to war."

The move up in the market was orchestrated by the Working Group on Financial Markets. Once they got the ball rolling, everyone jumped on board and the momentum fed on itself. Meanwhile, the economic news CONTINUES to stink up the place. The overbought stock market is in for big trouble once this contrived war ends.

Washington, March 21 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. consumer prices rose in February at the fastest pace in two years as the threat of war and supply disruptions fueled a surge in energy prices, the government reported.

The consumer price index, the most widely followed measure of inflation, jumped 0.6 percent, the most since a similar increase in January 2001, following a 0.3 percent rise the month before. Excluding volatile food and energy costs, the so-called core rate climbed 0.1 percent, matching the January gain….

In a separate report, the Labor Department today said average weekly earnings adjusted for inflation declined 0.5 percent in February after increasing 0.2 percent in January.

From The King Report:

"The Philly Fed at -8.0 is a disaster; -0.5% was expected. Now we know why Easy Al refrained from economic guidance. Perhaps he learned that from seeing so many CEOs abstaining from guidance. Yesterday’s action strongly implies victory in Iraq is already priced into the market. However, the Philly Fed chilled stocks. Soon, economics and earnings will command center stage."

Just as I thought. The Fed said nothing because the economic news and outlook was so bad they were afraid that the truth would rattle the markets as the war began.

Pension Accounting Turns $31 Billion of Losses Into Earnings

By David Evans

New York, March 21 (Bloomberg) -- Nine of the largest U.S. companies obscured $30.61 billion in pension-fund losses in 2002 because of an accounting rule, boosting corporate earnings and prompting calls for a change in regulations.

Verizon Communications Inc., Lockheed Martin Corp., International Business Machine Corp. and six other companies each lost more than $1 billion in pension-fund investments last year, according to footnotes in their annual reports.

Verizon, which lost $4.68 billion, reported a $2.5 billion pension gain. That accounted for 40 percent of its 2002 pretax earnings. U.S. accounting rules call for companies to include estimated pension gains, rather than actual returns, in their income statements. As a result of the rule called FAS 87, the nine companies legally transformed $30.61 billion of pension losses into pretax earnings of $7.9 billion, annual reports show. -END-

How sick is our soaring stock market? P/E commentary from Richard Russell last evening, before today’s giant rally:

Most of today’s analysts weren’t around during previous major bear market bottoms. Let me just provide you with a few cogent statistics, statistics that appeared at previous major bottoms. In June 1949 the S&P sold at 5.4 times earnings while the dividend yield was 7.6%. In December 1974 the S&P sold at 7.5 times earnings with a dividend yield of 5.1%. In 1980 the S&P sold for 6.8 times earnings with a dividend yield of 5.7%. In 1982 the S&P sold for 7.9 times earnings with a dividend yield of 6.3%.

And what’s the story today? Today the S&P sells for 28 times earnings with a dividend yield of 1.99%. And today’s earnings are still suspect and some corporations are still offering "pro forma" earnings while a great many stocks offer no dividends at all. So if you believe, as some analysts are claiming, that we are in a bull market or a "new’ bull market, you’re not in the same world that I am in. But the mere fact that some analysts are still claiming that "this is a bull market" tells me that the sentiment is not right at all for the market being anywhere near a major bottom.

-END-

Dave Lewis, "memories of the Asian crisis"

Bill;

While watching the military arm of western civilization`s division of labor scheme prove its mettle live on TV (at least now I know where a big chunk of my tax dollars have gone) to the enthusiasm of the markets, my thought wandered back to the beginnings of the Asian crisis. From my perspective the crisis began in March, when a colleague of mine, whose specialty was SE Asian economies, told me that something strange was happening in Thailand. He was a bit surprised because it appeared that the Bank of Thailand was holding back the release of its external flow of funds data. More surprising was market talk of ever increasing BoT trading in the US$/Thb forward market. I, foolishly advised that it was likely an honest error, dreams of progress in financial integrity closing my mind to the possibility of official chicanery.

History proved my intuition wrong. The Bank of Thailand was indeed hiding its accounts and intervening in the forward market in order to hide the decrease in US$ reserves behind swap accounting. From Thailand the virus of interventionism, always, as I see know, dormant, spread through-out Asia, even infecting the Friedmanite bastion of capitalism, Hong Kong, before the hand over mind you. Before the first wave of the crisis had passed, every government in the region had directly intervened in both financial and labor markets, all the while preaching the virtue of free markets. Living through the experience informs my view of current events.

Many economists had "seen" the fall of the Asian Tigers before the adjustment manifested, the question was when the government would allow it to happen. The last line of defense was interventionism, which in the end only shifted part of the adjustment from equity prices to exchange or inflation rates, while delaying the rest. The current full scale transparent interventionism in G7 markets smacks of the terminal stages of the game, much as Nixon`s wage and price controls were the
swan song for his policies. The lock down on the markets might only last through the fiscal year end for Japan coming end of this month, or it might extend longer. Regardless, equilibrium lies in the direction of lower purchasing power for paper assets.

regards

Dave Lewis

http://www.chaos-onomics.com

Earlier in the MIDAS, I wrote of the bigger gold picture. In the short-term, gold is VERY oversold. The funds have been turned into big sellers and the trade, while the trade was a large buyer today. The bashing of gold by the cabal has allowed fellow cartel members to cover shorts put on during the price-capping run up to $388. The well followed Hightower Report issued a gold buy recommendation at $325 this afternoon. I would look for gold to put in a sharp rally after an early sell-off on Monday.

A few days ago, I stated the gold shares were a screaming buy. They STILL are. They are not following the gold move down, as they did not follow it up. Most gold shares are trading 30% UNDER where they were last May with gold at the same price. That is almost the case with the HUI, which closed today at 116.50, down 2.66 on the day, but two points above its low of a week ago and some 40 points below its May high.

The HUI index:

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?s…

The XAU closed at 63.15, down 1.50.

The past many weeks have been very painful, but that pain is going to pass. The good times ahead for gold shareholders will be as spectacularly good as today’s Iraq bombing was spectacularly sickening.

On a closing note, the pundits on TV say America is liberating Iraq. I would like to know who is going to liberate America from The Gold Cartel goons and Working Group on Financial Markets. They are gradually destroying our free markets, notions of fair play and communication of the truth to the American investing public. They make Enron and WorldCom look like amateurs when it comes to transparency and respectability.

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

March 21 – Gold $325.50 down $6.90 – Silver $4.34 down 6 cents

The "Shock and Awe" Bombing of The Gold Market

"We must all hang together, or assuredly we shall all hang separately."
--Benjamin Franklin, At the signing of the Declaration of Independence, July 4, 1776

The Comex floor was extremely bearish before the Comex opening and their bearishness paid off handsomely. It wasn’t hard to understand why they were so bearish as trading got under way. The trading action was within a tight range, but three rallies of 60 cents to $1.30 higher on the day were swiftly squashed within minutes, maybe seconds. That was the signal to the locals that gold was not going to be allowed to go higher and that the gains would be made on the downside.

The tight trading action went on for hours and then on cue The Gold Cartel swung into action when the intense bombing of Iraq kicked in. Stops were touched off below $330 and gold was trashed. Simultaneously, the stock market and the dollar soared.

After the close, a bullion dealer surprisingly flat out told a colleague of mine that the gold market was rigged.

The Gold Cartel took gold down to the $329 area, which is the 200-day moving average. It popped a bit, and then the cabal hit the floor with a rumor that Saddam Hussein had surrendered. The cabal lashed into gold, which unleashed a torrent of fund selling as the 200-day moving average was breached. Then, The Gold Cartel turned massive buyer as the funds puked out their longs. The bullion dealer sounded completely disgusted.

On a side note, how many BILLIONS do you think the insiders made via the stock market, gold, oil, dollar-rigging operations by going along with the Plunge Protection Team`s market orchestrations? Meanwhile, Joe and Jane Public struggle on!

"Shock and Awe" they are calling the attack on Iraq. That is what the Working Group on Financial Markets is doing to the gold market: shock bombing it into oblivion again. The only difference between the two is that they have been at the gold bombing for weeks.

Forget the creep Saddam Hussein. He is contemptible beyond description – one of the vilest men in all creation. But, the Iraqi people are not like that.

We supported their efforts against the Iranians for years. They were our allies. We gave them weapons to use against the Iranians. They don’t deserve to be shock bombed into oblivion. Their military can barely shoot back. Where are their weapons of mass destruction? If they ever were going to use them, now is the time. This was some army for the world to fear. They can’t even shoot straight. No wonder no Arab country in the Middle East was concerned about Iraq!

It made me sick to my stomach to watch the US bomb those people – all to protect our oil supply and putrid dollar. I want to throw up. And then to hear the rah rahs marvel about it all on the tube – such exhilaration. What a mismatch! It was like watching deviants root for the New York Yankees to defeat the Dallas Little League Baseball Team. Big thrill! Big deal!

This war will go down as the biggest blunder in the history of the United States. Two hundred and 227 years of honor thrown down the drain. Time will prove that out. Mark my words on that one.

Back to the financial markets. This will bode poorly for the dollar down the road, as America becomes the country everyone loves to hate. It will be more than the inflamed Muslim world: it will be just about everyone. It shouldn’t be long before there is a concerted attack on the dollar and a flight to gold, once the bomb dust clears. The American financial establishment is very vulnerable on both counts.

How can gold crater from $388 like this when the fundamentals are so bullish? There is only one answer as far as I am concerned: US/IMF gold. Who knows how much gold is now gone – swapped or lent out? Don’t know, but my guess is at least half of it has left the coffers. The American people’s gold has been dealt away to perpetuate a fraud.

How long can this nightmare go on? Hard to say. I never thought they would go back to the till for this length of time. Nevertheless, they have, and there is no sign of any let-up. Thus, I thought it time to review the work of my brilliant former colleague, Frank Veneroso. Frank prepared a paper for the GATA African Gold Summit in Durban, South Africa on May 10, 2001 titled:


Facts, Evidence and Logical Inference
A Presentation On Gold Supply/Demand, Gold Derivatives and Gold Loans

By
Frank A. J. Veneroso

The complete dissertation may be read at:
http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/pfv.cfm?pfvID=1525

My objective was to get a handle on the situation, and what we might be in for, as far as The Gold Cartel price suppression scheme is concerned. Once again, we read where Frank Veneroso’s work confirmed the amount of gold loans/swaps divulged in the Howe/Bolser report:

"That would suggest something like 10 to 16 thousand tonnes of gold have departed from the official sector as a result of official gold lending. This is an inference from a small sample, but it`s an interesting corroborative piece of evidence…."

I have known Frank for 23 years. He believes the higher number was closer to the real number. He thought the gold loans were 10,000 tonnes five years ago. In addition, two years have passed since the conservative Frank wrote this marvelous work and we know The Gold Cartel has had to use up enormous amounts of gold since then to keep the price where it is - especially during the past month.

Frank goes on:

That exercise has pointed to exactly the same conclusion as all of our other evidence and inference---i.e. something like 10,000 to 15,000 tonnes of borrowed gold.

So I have now given you 6 completely independent pieces of evidence that a hell of a lot more gold has left those official vaults than the consensus would contend. This implies that the flow, the draw down rate, the liquidation rate from official gold stocks is substantially higher than what the consensus contends.

Now let us put these two suppositions together. Remember our pie chart--- a big chunk of the official gold reserves reported to the IMF has already gone. Remember our supply/demand balances---this outflow on an annual basis is substantially larger.

Now, let us project forward. First of all, as the years pass, global income will rise. At a constant real gold price we could then expect demand would rise somewhat. At the same time the current very low gold price is close to the total cost of production and we are having less exploration. We have more or less exhausted the pipeline of projects that we created through higher exploration expenditures years ago. Also, cash flow strapped miners are high grading the eyes out of their mines. Mines deplete in any case by about 7% a year. Mines are depleting more rapidly now because miners are high grading. In essence, we are not coming up with new projects to replace what is being depleted, and depletion is occurring at a rapid rate. Overall we can expect mine output will fall over time. Therefore, we can assume some growth in future demand, we can assume some decline in supply, so that the deficit in the gold market---that rate of flow of gold out of the central bank vaults---should increase in order for the gold price to remain at its current level in real terms.

Now, we will make two sets of assumptions. First let us take the current rate of drawdown and project it forward. Second, let us also assume some growth in that rate of drawdown. Let us then take our estimates of what is left in them thar` vaults and figure out how long this process can go on.

First, we take our conservative numbers--- our lower rather than our higher estimates of gold lending. Here we project how long this process can go on if we assume no growth in demand and no decline in supply and conclude it will take a decade to empty the vaults. In this alternative projection we have assumed some growth in demand and some decline in supply. It will take about 7 years to empty the vaults.

If we use our more aggressive numbers, we have less in those vaults and it is flowing out at a faster rate; consequently, it takes less than seven years to empty the vaults.

So whatever is happening in the gold market--- whatever is keeping the gold price down---if our numbers are correct, it can`t go on that much longer, because we know not every central bank will lend or sell all it`s gold. In fact, if our analysis is correct, the official sector knows what is coming. If the official sector is rational, it knows what will happen to the gold price when this large flow that is depressing the price abates and ultimately ends---the price will go up by a lot. Therefore, some rational central banks will not sell and lend down to the last ounce. Instead they will start to buy.

What are the implications of all this dry statistical analysis for the claims of GATA? To our mind, it is very simple. There is much evidence that the consensus data on supply and demand is wrong and that the supply coming from the central banks is higher than the consensus estimates. In our opinion, the fact that the central banks do not acknowledge this but simply keep affirming the consensus data---despite abundant evidence to the contrary---represents considerable support for the allegations of GATA that there may be something deliberate and intentionally clandestine about the large flows of official gold that have been depressing the gold price.

-END-

"So regardless of what has been happening in the gold market, if our data is correct, then, within a couple of years, whatever the official sector is doing, it will terminate and the gold price will rise."

That "couple of years" is only six weeks away since the conference was held and gold has already risen $50.

What is important to keep in mind is the central bank gold that is being used to bomb the market has its limits. No way can the gold vaults come anywhere close to being emptied.

For example, we know for sure the French won’t sell or lend any of their 3,000 tonnes. They have been warning other central banks for years that they might never get their lent gold back. The more the central banks use up, the higher the price will go in the end when The Gold Cartel is defeated. The unprovoked war by the Bush Administration is liable to hasten further the cabal’s demise, as the rest of the world revolts against American arrogant imperialism and buys gold.

For those reasons, I now believe gold will rise much higher than $800/$1,000 per ounce.

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

Friday March 21 2003

Indian ex-duty premiums: $10.78 and $12.36, with world gold at $334 and $332.15. Hugely above legal import point. Observers are increasingly agreed that physical demand is asserting itself. Mitsui H-K, unusually stirring itself to publish on a day on which Tokyo was closed comments:

"..all metals nestled in stagnancy with only physical gold demand in evidence stepping up the price target from 333 to 334. Buying came in sporadic clips but persistent throughout the session."

And HSBC offers:

"emergent physical demand is seen picking up. Moderate physical demand into India …modest levels of interest from Turkey."

Quite why premiums have got this high and why physical demand is not acknowledged as being stronger is not clear: possibly shipping risk on the edge of a war zone is a factor. The inference from this is that upward pressure on world gold will grow as these risks fade.

Of probably equal importance is the prospect of alleviation of the violent selling disruptions mentioned yesterday, the likely source of which is frankly discussed today by Investec (courtesy http://www.thebulliondesk.com )

"Pressure resumed during European hours yesterday morning as consistent selling knocked gold back…rumours from news sources that Saddam was wounded in the first raids led to a rapid $3.0 gold sell off ... A 500 lot selling order into illiquid gold futures pit contributed to the move to $334.50 Reasonably large sales that have capped recent advances ($345 at the start of the week and then $340 on the bounce) may be partly speculative liquidation but official sourced sellers are looking increasingly likely." (JB italics)

See:

http://www.thebulliondesk.com/reports/investec/investec.pdf

Clearly large speculative players have been successfully intimidated away from the long side of the gold market (no doubt fearing the arrival through the window of a Tomahawk missile targeted on their Bloomberg terminal!), a situation the gold shares anticipated some months ago. This will be of no interest to the Eastern physical buyers, who are likely now to become quite aggressive.

Probably too lightly ignored in the prevailing atmosphere is the article on Page 8 of today’s WSJ telling those who bother to read it that:

"President Bush has in mind more than changing a country. His dream is to make the entire Middle East a different place…"

No doubt not by accident, DEBKA, the voluble Middle East intelligence digest widely thought to be a project of Israeli Intelligence, spends much of today’s issue detailing the evil intentions of the Iranians and the likelihood of their getting involved in Iraq.

The Fat Lady is probably nowhere near the stage yet.

JB

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[Luisito]

KZ 280$/Unze Genau dorthin gehört Gold.

[ThaiGuru]

@derunsichtbarefreund

#5156

Du hast Recht, wenn Du einwirfst, wir sollten uns nichts vormachen. Diejenigen die bestimmen wohin die "Reise" geht, sitzen an einem langen Hebel. Doch auch diese Leute benötigen Luft zum Atmen, und vor allem physisches Gold zu einer substanziellen Manipulation, und Kontrolle der Gold Preise. Es ist ja nicht etwa so, dass bei Kriegsausbruch im Irak, jetzt irgenwelche Leute massiv physisches Gold verkaufen. Das Gegenteil ist der Fall, es wird massiv gekauft, je tiefer der Gold Preis fällt, desto mehr wird gerade physisch Gold aufgekauft. Sei es von Seiten der Goldproduzenten, zum weiteren Abbau Ihrer Hedge Positionen, einiger Goldbullion Banken, oder von Seiten der Inder, Araber, Chinesen, Russen, Türken, Vitnamesen etc., oder deren Zentralbanken.

Wenn jetzt wie Du sicherlich zu Recht befürchtest diejenigen Parteien, die Gold auf dem Papier verkauft haben, ihre Lieferverpflichtungen zukünftig nicht einhalten können, oder unter einer evtl. "rechtlichen Mithilfe" der FED, Comex, Tocom, etc. nicht mehr einhalten müssen, würden die Goldpreise sofort explodieren, da ja bekannt würde, dass das Gold nicht vorhanden ist.

Falls Du, oder jemand der Leser befürchten sollte, dass das Gold Cabal die Goldpreise jetzt ins Uferlose stürzen lassen könnte, kann ich nur entgegnen, "DAS IST AUCH FUER DAS GOLD CABAL EXTREM GEFAEHRLICH", weil bei langfistigen Preisen von unter 300.- Dollar pro Unze Gold, die allermeisten Produzenten wieder in ihrer Existenz bedroht wäre, und die Goldproduktion stark zurückgehen würde. Die Südafrikanischen Minen, vor allem DROOY, hätten zudem noch weitere grosse Probleme, falls der SA Rand weiter so stark im Wechselkursverhältnis zum US Dollar steht.

Das wird mittelfristig nicht geschehen, mach Dir da keine Sorgen!

Im Gegenteil, jeder sollte eigentlich jetzt massiv physisches Gold zukaufen, da Gold jetzt in Euro und Franken gerechnet, billiger ist, als noch vor 2 Jahren, als Gold auf dem 25 Jahres Tief von ca. 260.- Dollar pro Unze gehandelt wurde.

Wem das aus finanzieller Sicht nicht mehr möglich ist, der sollte sich etwas in Geduld üben, da Gold meiner Meinung nach nicht mehr lange unten gehalten werden kann, und es bald wieder nach oben geht, vielleicht schneller als manchem Goldskeptiker lieb sein wird.

Gold strong Buy!!!

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.welt.de/data/2003/03/22/55920.html

Das Ende des endlosen Wachstums

Ölpreise, Leitzinsen, Wechselkurse - Ökonomen rätseln über die kurzfristigen Folgen des Irak-Kriegs. Doch wie sieht es langfristig aus?

Die WELT hat Volkswirte befragt
von Anja Struve

Die Ökonomen sind sich einig, dass das weltwirtschaftliche Gefüge durch mehrere Paradigmenwechseln beeinträchtigt werden könnte. Hier die sechs wichtigsten Thesen:

Globalisierung in Gefahr

Die Volkswirte befürchten, dass der tiefe Riss in den in den einst soliden politische Bündnissen tiefgreifende ökonomische Folgen haben könnte. "Es ist gut möglich, dass Sand ins weltweite Getriebe gekommen ist", sagt Thomas Mayer, Europa-Chefvolkswirt der Deutschen Bank in London. "Künftig könnte es noch schwerer werden als bisher, sich auf gemeinsame Positionen beim weltweiten Handel oder beim globalen Klimaschutz zu einigen." Doch auch im Kleinen sind gravierende Folgen denkbar. So ist zu befürchten, dass US-Touristen wegen der politischen Situation weniger ins Ausland reisen. Auch den Handel könnte es treffen, meint Julian Callow von CSFB: "Es ist gut möglich, dass die USA künftig mehr in Richtung Pazifik und nicht mehr so sehr über den Atlantik schauen." Stephen Roach von Morgan Stanley sieht sogar den "tiefsten geopolitischen Bruch seit dem Zweiten Weltkrieg". Seine These: "Die einst unaufhaltsam wirkende Globalisierung ist in Gefahr." Dazu trügen nicht nur politische Spannungen bei, sondern auch das drohende Ende des US-Wachstums. Nach dem Platzen der New-Economy-Blase seien die Vereinigten Staaten "nicht mehr in der Lage, den Rest der Welt einfach huckepack zu nehmen." Stattdessen dürften die USA eher daran interessiert sein, ihre Währung weiter abzuwerten. Das würde wiederum den Euroraum und Japan belasten.
Der Globalisierungshindernisse in Form von Schutzzöllen könnten daher künftig wieder an Bedeutung gewinnen, warnt Roach.

Primat der Politik

Ökonomen rechnen nicht nur in Handelsfragen damit, dass politische Entscheidungen wieder zunehmend wirtschaftliche Entwicklungen dominieren. Kopfzerbrechen bereitet den Experten etwa die künftige Positionierung der arabischen Staaten in der Wirtschaft und an den Finanzmärkten. So sei gut vorstellbar, dass die arabische Welt künftig auf stärker Distanz zu den USA gehen werde und sich statt dessen auf die europäischen Kernländer Deutschland und Frankreich als Gegenpol besinnen, sagt der Ökonom und Islamexperte Volker Nienhaus von der Ruhr-Universität Bochum. So werde in diesen Ländern sogar diskutiert, künftig Erdöl in Euro statt in Dollar abzurechnen oder den Dollar-Anteil an Fremdwährungsreserven zu reduzieren. "Diese Diversifizierungsbemühungen könnten zu Verwerfungen an den weltweiten Finanzmärkten führen", sagt Nienhaus. Allerdings warnte der Professor davor, diesen möglichen Boykott überzubewerten. Schließlich sei das Bruttoinlandsprodukt (BIP) der arabischen Staaten zusammen genommen nur etwa so groß wie das Spaniens.

Rückkehr höherer Inflation

Die befragten Experten befürchteten unisono die Abkehr von der Stabilitätspolitik. Die immense Neuverschuldung der USA und die zunehmend fehlende Haushaltsdisziplin der Euro Länder, die den Stabilitäts- und Wachstumspakt gefährdet, könnte schon bald zu höheren Inflationsraten führen. "Der Rückfall in die Staatswirtschaft, steigende Staatsschulden und die Forderung nach einer expansiven Geldpolitik dürften sich in ihren Konsequenzen als der kostenträchtigste Weg erweisen, die Volkswirtschaften an die Anforderungen anzupassen, die der Weg in eine neue Weltordnung bringt", warnt Thorsten Polleit, Chefökonom von Barclays Capital Deutschland. Eine solche Entwicklung würde wiederum die Notenbanken zu höheren Leitzinsen zwingen. Und das würde die staatlichen Haushalte wie auch die Unternehmen zusätzlich belasten.

Geringere Risikobereitschaft

Einen weiteren Paradigmenwechsel sehen die Ökonomen im geänderten Risikoverhalten von Unternehmern und Investoren weltweit. Die gestiegene Risikoaversion dürfte nach Meinung der meisten Experten auch nach dem Ende des Konflikts am Golf weiter anhalten. "Wir werden auch künftig größere Risikoprämien sehen, denn die Welt ist im Vergleich zu früher ein deutlich unsicherer Ort", sagt CSFB-Ökonom Callow.

Geringeres Wachstum

Protektionismus, höhere Inflationsraten und geringere Risikobereitschaft blieben nicht ohne Folgen auf Wachstum und Beschäftigung. Auch wenn einige Paradigmenwechsel nicht eintreten sollten, rechnet kaum ein Ökonom damit, dass die Weltwirtschaft nach einem Ende des Konflikts am Golf wieder zu Wachstumsraten von vier oder mehr Prozent zurückkehren wird. "Dazu war die vorangegange Phase der New Economy zu überhitzt", sagt Ökonomieprofessor Nienhaus. An ein dauerhaft niedriges Potenzialwachstum glaubt der Experte aber auch nicht. "Die langfristige Wirtschaftsdynamik wird durch den Konflikt und seine möglichen Folgen nicht gedämpft werden." Vielmehr sei das, was die Wirtschaft derzeit erlebe, ein "Knick in der langfristigen Trendkurve."

Prognoseprobleme

Keine Illusionen machen sich die Ökonomen über ihre eigene Branche. Schließlich werde auch nach einem schnellen Ende des Konflikts die Angst vor Terror-Anschlägen weiter anhalten und die Stimmung dämpfen. Zudem völlig unklar, in welche Richtung sich die Welt künftig entwickele. "Optimisten rechnen damit, dass der Krieg schnell beendet wird, und wir danach so bald wie möglich zur Tagesordnung übergehen können", sagt John Hatherly von der Vermögensverwaltung M&G. "Pessimisten befürchten hingegen, dass die USA mit ihrem Verhalten im Golfkonflikt die Büchse der Pandora geöffnet haben könnten - mit all den negativen Folgen, die das auch für die Wirtschaft und Finanzmärkte weltweit haben könnte." Die Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass ein bestimmtes von den Ökonomen errechnetes Szenario eintrete, sei mittlerweile viel geringer als in früheren Jahren, ergänzt Thomas Mayer von der Deutschen Bank. "Aber mit diesen geänderten Wahrscheinlichkeiten müssen wir wohl vorerst leben, unabhängig davon, welchen Verlauf der Krieg am Golf nimmt." Allerdings warnen die Ökonomen davor, allzu schwarz zu malen: "In Zeiten von Bärenmärkten, wie wir jetzt einen haben, glauben die Menschen, dass es nie wieder aufwärts geht. Aber das stimmt nicht", sagt M&G-Experte Hatherly, der seit über 30 Jahren in der britischen Finanzbranche arbeitet. "Denn alle Bullen- und Bärenmärkte in der Geschichte haben eine Gemeinsamkeit: Sie enden irgendwann."

Artikel erschienen am 22. Mär 2003

[ThaiGuru]

!

Dieser Beitrag wurde vom System automatisch gesperrt. Bei Fragen wenden Sie sich bitte an [e-mail]

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.busrep.co.za/general/busrep/br_newsview.php?click…

Mining shares decline on state`s proposals

Bloomberg

March 22 2003 at 07:45AM

Johannesburg - Shares in Anglo American and other local mining companies fell yesterday on concern a plan to charge as much as 8 percent in royalties would crimp profit.

The charge "that stands out is the diamond royalties, and that is why Anglo stands out on the downside", said Keith Francis, a trader at Barnard Jacobs Mellet Holdings, the biggest locally owned stock broker.

The government has proposed charging 8 percent on diamond sales, 3 percent on gold and 4 percent on platinum as it takes ownership of mining rights from companies and works to compensate blacks for discrimination under apartheid. The proposal must be submitted for public comment before it goes to parliament.

Anglo fell 2 percent to R120.50, erasing an earlier gain. Top miner BHP Billiton dropped 2.1 percent to R42.10 and Impala Platinum, the second-largest platinum producer, slid 3.4 percent to R451.

Gold producers also dropped after the price of bullion lost as much as 1.3 percent to $331.76 an ounce after the market in Johannesburg closed yesterday. Gold Fields, Africa`s second-biggest producer, fell 4.4 percent to R84 and Harmony Gold declined 1.9 percent to R100.51.

Afrikander Lease fell 4.3 percent to R5.55 after Peter Skeat, the company`s chief executive, suddenly resigned. The company gave no reason for the resignation. - Bloomberg

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.busrep.co.za/general/busrep/br_newsview.php?click…

India reports active trade in gold on war jitters
Reuters

March 22 2003 at 07:45AM

Bombay - Traders in India, the world`s largest buyers of gold, resumed purchases yesterday as global prices hovered in a narrow range after the start of US strikes against Iraq.

They said importers were active on fears prices would jump if the war was prolonged or if terror attacks struck other parts of the globe.

"It is good to buy now as prices are lower than two weeks ago," a dealer said.

But some traders expected prices to fall, as was the case during the 1991 Gulf war.

India imports an average 1.5 tons of gold each day to meet its annual domestic demand of more than 800 tons.

Spot gold was quoted at $334.75/335.50 an ounce, up from $332/333 in mid-morning Asian trade after explosions rocked Baghdad and US President George W Bush said the early stages of an attack on Iraq had begun.

Gold was trading at about $356 two weeks ago and last month touched a six-and-a-half-year high of $388.50.

Gold has a history of price volatility in times of war. It gained $45 to $415 when Iraqi forces invaded Kuwait in August 1990, then fell $40 to $336 when allied forces began action to evict Iraq from the Gulf emirate in January 1991.

"The current prices are not sustainable and should fall to about $325 an ounce in the next few days," said Nayan Pansare, an official at trading firm Inter Gold.

"But if it turns out to be a long war with the use of chemical and biological weapons, prices may shoot up."

Bush said yesterday the war could be longer and more difficult than expected. - Reuters

[Culogrande1]

Heute muss ich doch verzweifelt bei Guru um Rat nachsuchen!

Hatte ich mich mit ihm in der Wolle als ich schrieb....Durban kaufe ich noch unter 2.50 $......legte ein absolut verrücktes Limit in den Markt als das Zeug bei über 5$ stand und vergass es.

Heute habe ich die Scheisse im Depot.


Hilfe....was soll ich machen

Culogrande...sach ich mal

[manfred1_I]

Statt Durban hättest du dir vor einigen Tagen
die Stillwater einsammeln sollen.

[ThaiGuru]

@grossesarschloch1, alias "Dottore Lupo"

#5169

Freu Dich doch darüber, dass Dir das Gold Cabal dieses Schnäppchen mit DROOY ermöglicht hat.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.mips1.net/MGLdn.nsf/Current/8525690B0032142042256…

Thumbs down for Money Bill

By: Ken Gooding

Posted: 2003/03/23 Sun 15:20 ZE2 | © Mineweb 1997-2003

LONDON – Has the South African government once again shot itself in the foot with the announcement about proposed mining royalties? After looking closely at the details, the London based mining team at ABN Amro, the Dutch investment banking group, suggests this is the case.
Analyst David Bird explains: “Our initial reaction was that this was a positive step in removing the uncertainty around the introduction of the new Minerals Bill. However, we have subsequently noticed the ‘Fiscal stabilisation provision’ within the documentation, and this has dented our confidence in the government.

“The provision states that, in order to ‘enshrine maximum certainty for investors,` it allows minerals rights holders to a guaranteed royalty rate over the 30-year lease life if a premium of the lesser of 2 percent or 50 percent of the initial rate is paid.

“While it states that the current royalty rates are sustainable for the foreseeable future, this provision suggests that rates are likely to rise by at least 2 percent in the future. We believe that this clause has completely undermined the announcement and created the complete opposite result to which it was intended.”

London analysts have been incorporating some accounting for royalties on mining groups’ South African operations in their forecasts for some time. In ABN Amro’s case, for the past six months it has assumed an across-the-board 3 percent royalty in its calculations.

Nevertheless, it has had to make some adjustments to its forecasts now details are available. It is still not clear, however, just when the royalty regime will start to bite. But ABN Amro is assuming they by 2004 they will be in effect.

Among the London listed groups, Anglo American (LSE:AAL) will be the worst hit. Bird calculates the total impact of the royalties on Anglo “is for a 3.4 percent reduction in value to 1036p a share and a 4.5 percent reduction in 2004 headline earnings to US$1.50 a share. However, as we already had an across the board 3 percent royalty factored into our number, the changes resulted in just a 1.0 percent reduction in our current valuation and a 0.9 percent reduction in earnings for 2004, and similar reductions going forward.”

Lonmin (LSE:LMI), the platinum producer, is also substantially affected because most of its operations are in South Africa – the exception being Ashanti Gold Fields in Ghana in which Lonmin is a 28.2 percent shareholder.

Bird estimates the total impact of the new royalty regime is for an 8.8 percent reduction in value to 766p a share and a 9.3 percent reduction in 2004 earnings to US$1.17/share. This estimate assumes Lonmin will pay only an additional 3 percent royalty, compared with the 4 percent for platinum announced by the government, because Lonmin already pays some royalties to tribal landowners.

He says the royalty impact on the other two big London listed diversified groups, BHP Billiton (LSE:BLT) and Rio Tinto (LSE:RIO) will be far smaller than on Anglo and Lonmin.

John Meyer and Julian Tolley at Numis Securities in London also expect that Anglo’s 2004 earnings forecasts will have to be adjusted downwards by about 3.5 percent because of the royalties. They point out that Anglo generates 53 percent of its sales in South Africa.

As for Anglo’s big diversified rivals, BHPB’s South African operations account for only 10 percent of the group’s total sales which come mainly from aluminium, coal and ferro-alloys. No hints have been given so far by the government about royalties on these commodities but Meyer and Tolley suggest South Africa will follow the example set by Australia and charge a 4 percent royalty for each. This would lead to a potential 1 percent negative adjustment to Numis’s forecasts.

Rio Tinto in its reports refers to its African operations and together these account for only 7 percent of its sales. Its sole South African operation is Palabora copper and, again, no details of copper royalties have been given. Nevertheless, Numis says there is a potential 0.5 percent negative adjustment to its Rio forecasts.

The latest big mining group to get a full London listing, Xstrata (LSW:XTA), collects 50 percent of earnings before interest and tax from South African operations. The Numis team suggests earnings will have to be downgraded by 5 percent because we should expect 4 percent royalty rates on both of Xstrata’s South African commodities, coal and ferro-alloys.

Meyer and Tolley point out that some smaller London listed mining companies operating in South Africa will also feel the impact – companies such as Aquarius Platinum (LSE:AQP), SouthernEra Resources (LSE:SRE) and Cluff Resources (LSE:CLU).

[Wavetrader]

Es ist schon wieder ein Monat rum. Ich würde mich freuen, wenn sich die Gold-Bugs und auch alle anderen, die sich für Gold interessieren, wieder bei der monatlichen Stiimmungs-Umfrage mitmachen würden: Thread: Gold: Sentiment-Umfrage 2003/03

[ThaiGuru]

GOLD Charts, HUI and XAU

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID…

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.financialexpress.com/fe_full_story.php?content_id…

NEWS

Supply Crunch, Insurance Premia Hike Hit Gold Demand

Sharad Mistry

Mumbai, March 23: The hike in insurance premium for transporting precious metals, including gold, has replaced the earlier war premium built in gold prices before the war. As a result, even when gold prices have fallen in the international and domestic markets, the relative price is higher. This is mainly due to shrunken supplies on war-led fears.

At a time when demand for gold has surged with drop in prices, the Indian buyer is unable to take full advantage of not just the low prices, but even the reduced import duty on numbered bars announced in the 2003-04 Budget. Besides, a change of equation is currently on between the 20-odd entities which have been permitted to trade in gold and silver. This has led to supply constraints in a market which is in the midst of renewed demand for gold not witnessed since the past few months.

Ahead of the war, the gold prices were hovering around $360-370 per troy oz levels. Currently, these are at $333 levels. In Mumbai, gold was quoted at Rs 5,250 per 10 gm.

Thanks to finance minister Jaswant Singh, the import duty on numbered bars has been cut (in the last budget) to Rs 100 per 10 gm from Rs 250 per 10 gm. The import duty on unnumbered TT bars, however, remains at Rs 250 levels, making it costlier than the numbered ones and therefore, unwanted.

“Given the lower prices and the ongoing marriage season, the gold business has been pretty good these days,” said Bank of Nova Scotia (of Scotia Mocatta) director (India, bullion) Rajan Venkatesh. “However, there is also a sharp rise in the insurance premia charged by insurance companies and airline companies engaged in transporting precious metals.”

At this juncture, gold supplies have shrunk, primarily because of two reasons: One, the cancellation of flights to India by some of the US-based airline companies, which have to fly over the war-torn zone of the Middle East. Two, because of the war, some of the Switzerland-based leading gold producers have stopped sending their consignments to India.

[ThaiGuru]

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1048453515.php

Message from Richard Russell on Gold

The markets are operating on two separate levels. The level it`s operating on now is what I would term the "surface" level, the war, the current economic statistics, the current psychology.

But under the surface level, we have what Bill Gross is referring to, and that is the massive debts and deficits that could ultimately sink the dollar and topple the US as a super-power. Perhaps ironically, the path that Bush is putting this nation on will simply accelerate this process of debt and deficit building.

There are two main scenarios regarding the future of the US, at least two which I take seriously.

The first is held by a number of highly intelligent people such as Bill Gross above. This scenario holds that the US is headed for increasing inflation as the Fed is forced to print new oceans of money to cover our continuing deficits and debts.

The other scenario held by such analysts as Bob Prechter and James Dines is that we face a deflationary depression, as the bear market bears down relentlessly on the mountains of debt that is built into the US economy at every level.

Assuming that one of these scenarios is correct, what is our salvation as investors? In both cases, I believe the salvation of investors is real money, better known as gold.

In a major inflation, the purchasing power of the dollar is sure to decline. If that happens, the case for gold is obvious enough. As the value of paper money declines, the value of real money (gold) will become clear, even to the most stubborn anti-gold element.

In a major deflation, the pressure on business would be relentless. In this case, the Fed would go all out to fight the forces of deflation. Fed Governor has already announced that the Fed would not hesitate to use its chief weapon, its "printing press" to fight deflation. The Fed would also bring interest down to zero or even to a negative level, and it might even turn to buying stocks if necessary. So in the case of a deflationary depression, the Fed would flood the world in liquidity, putting massive pressure on the dollar - and here again investors would turn to the safety of gold.

-- Posted Sunday, March 23 2003

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.welt.de/data/2003/03/24/56716.html

Montag, 24. März 2003 Berlin, 00:19 Uhr

Bush braucht 80 Milliarden Dollar

US-Präsident konkretisiert Kosten für Irak-Krieg. Finanzierung für Truppen und Entwicklungshilfe



Vier Tage nach Beginn des Irak-Krieges will US-Präsident heute den Kongress bitten, ihm zur Finanzierung 80 Mrd. Dollar zu genehmigenFoto: AP

Washington - US-Präsident George W. Bush hat erstmals konkrete Zahlen genannt, wie viel die USA für den Irak-Krieg bezahlen müssen. Bush will den Kongress um 80 Mrd. Dollar (76 Mrd. Euro) zur Finanzierung des Kampfes gegen Saddam Hussein bitten. Der Präsident werde diesen Antrag am heutigen Montag den Führern der Kongressparteien vorlegen und mit der notwendigen Finanzierung der Kämpfe sowie der ersten Monate des Wiederaufbaus im Irak begründen, berichtete die "Washington Post". Das Geld werde nicht nur für die Truppen gebraucht, sondern auch für Entwicklungshilfe, humanitäre Hilfe und den Schutz vor Terror in den USA.

Im Kongress ist Widerstand zu erwarten. Die Demokraten hatten in den vergangenen Wochen die Regierung scharf angegriffen, weil diese sich bislang geweigert hat, Schätzungen über die Kriegskosten vorzulegen. Laut unbestätigten Berichten geht das Weiße Haus bei einem kurzen Krieg von Ausgaben zwischen 60 und 95 Mrd. Dollar aus. Offiziell waren vor Kriegsbeginn bislang 60 Mrd. Dollar genannt worden. Dagegen hatte Bushs Ex-Wirtschaftsberater Lawrence Lindsey von 100 Mrd. Dollar als untere Grenze gesprochen, bevor er gefeuert wurde. Experten veranschlagen einen zwei Monate währenden Konflikt auf mindestens 40 Mrd. Dollar. Jeder zusätzliche Tag koste 500 Mio. Dollar - der Wiederaufbau des Irak und die Wiederaufrüstung der US-Armee nicht mitgerechnet.

Am Freitag hatte der Senat eine Kürzung von Bushs umfangreichem Steuersenkungspaket beschlossen. Um 100 Mrd. Dollar haben die Senatoren die Steuererleichterungen gekürzt, um die unsicheren Ausgaben für den Irak-Krieg zu finanzieren. Der Präsident wollte ursprünglich Steuersenkungen in Höhe von 726 Mrd. Dollar in den kommenden zehn Jahren durchsetzen. Abgeblitzt war im Senat ein Antrag, den Etat des Ministeriums für Heimatschutz um 88 Mrd. Dollar anzuheben. Die Regierung in Washington lehnt exakte Informationen über die Kriegskosten mit der Begründung ab, Angaben über die Militärausgaben würden dem Gegner die weiteren Pläne der USA am Golf verraten. Dies sagten namentlich nicht genannte Regierungsmitabeiter der "Washington Post". Details zur Finanzierung könnten Aufschluss darüber geben, wie lange und wie intensiv die Militärs die Angriffe planten. Daher sei es auch möglich, dass die angeforderten 80 Mrd. Dollar nicht ganz benötigt würden, wenn der Krieg schnell zu Ende gehe.

Politiker und Wirtschaftsexperten sind uneins, wie teuer der Krieg für die amerikanische Volkswirtschaft wird. Klar ist: Der Feldzug wird auf jeden Fall teurer als der Golfkrieg 1991. 61 Mrd. Dollar mussten die USA und ihre Verbündeten damals allein für die Kampfeinsätze aufbringen. Über die indirekten Kosten gibt es keine verlässlichen Studien.

Für den jetzigen Krieg hat der renommierte Ökonom William Nordhaus eine pessimistische Schätzung aufgestellt, wonach bei lange anhaltenden Kämpfen mit Kosten für die US-Volkswirtschaft von bis zu 1,9 Billionen Dollar zu rechnen ist. Die reinen Militärkosten schlagen dabei mit 140 Mrd. Dollar zu Buche. Das Szenario sei aber hinfällig, sollte sich der Krieg ausweiten oder wenn Massenvernichtungswaffen zum Einsatz kämen. DW

Artikel erschienen am 24. Mär 2003

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.welt.de/data/2003/03/24/56655.html

Luftfahrtbranche droht Verlust von zehn Milliarden Dollar

Die Folgen des Kriegs würden die bislang schwerste Krise in der Luftfahrt, in die die Branche nach den Anschlägen vom 11. September geraten war, noch verschärfen

Montreal/Honolulu - Die Zurückhaltung bei Flugreisen wegen des Irak-Kriegs könnte nach Einschätzung des internationalen Verbandes der Fluglinien (IATA) für die Luftfahrtbranche zu weiteren Verlusten von zehn Mrd. Dollar führen. Die Folgen des Kriegs würden die bislang schwerste Krise in der Luftfahrt, in die die Branche nach den Anschlägen vom 11. September geraten war, wahrscheinlich noch verschärfen, teilte der Verband mit. Insgesamt habe die Krise im Luftreiseverkehr seit den Anschlägen bislang zu addierten Verlusten von rund 30 Mrd. Dollar geführt. IATA hatte bereits prognostiziert, dass im Falle eines Irak-Kriegs das Passagieraufkommen je nach Region um 15 bis 20 Prozent einbrechen könnte.

Der Verband IATA vertritt rund 98 Prozent der internationalen Fluglinien. IATA-Generaldirektor Giovanni Bisignani forderte die Regierungen auf, der Branche zu helfen die Krise zu überwinden und etwa den freien Zusammenschluss von Fluglinien oder den Gang an die Finanzmärkte zur Kapitalbeschaffung zu gestatten.

Lufthansa-Chef Jürgen Weber hatte am Donnerstag wenige Stunden nach Kriegsbeginn ein Ende der Krise im Luftverkehr als nicht absehbar bezeichnet. Die Schwierigkeiten für die Branche würden sich nun länger als erwartet hinziehen. Nach früheren Prognosen von IATA hatte die Luftfahrtbranche weltweit allein im vergangenen Jahr einen Gesamtverlust von 13 Mrd. Dollar erlitten. rtr

Artikel erschienen am 24. Mär 2003

[ThaiGuru]

http://quote.bloomberg.com

Profit Warnings

03/24 00:10

Northwest, Disney, U.S. Companies Lose Sales From Iraq War

By Peter Robison


New York, March 24 (Bloomberg) -- Northwest Airlines Corp., Walt Disney Co. and General Motors Corp. are among hundreds of U.S. companies feeling the effects of the six-day-old war on Iraq as consumers rein in spending and airlines cut flights.

Northwest will eliminate 4,900 jobs, and analysts said every large carrier could go bankrupt in a war longer than a few weeks. Terrorism fears are keeping some people away from Walt Disney World in Orlando, Florida. Analysts project a 9.4 percent decline in U.S. car sales this month, twice that in January and February.

The lost sales threaten an already fragile quarter. Analysts predict first-quarter earnings for companies in the Standard & Poor`s 500 Index will rise 8.1 percent, half the forecast in October, according to Thomson Financial. More companies could cut profit estimates than at any time since the terrorist attacks of September 2001, said Chuck Hill, Thomson`s research director.

``Consumers need to get back out spending in the next couple weeks, or we move from a stall to a downturn,`` said Kevin Bannon, chief investment officer at Bank of New York Co., which manages $70 billion.

Weakening Economy

To be sure, some investors said the disruptions may only be temporary. U.S. stocks had their best week in two decades as an early lack of Iraqi resistance led to hope that a victory will unleash capital spending. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 8.4 percent last week, erasing year-to-date losses.

With the rally, investors are looking past evidence of a weakening economy.

Retail sales last month dropped 1.6 percent, the biggest decrease since November 2001, and consumer confidence has fallen to the lowest in more than a decade.

Barnes & Noble Inc., the world`s largest book seller, said it may have a first-quarter loss, partly because consumers may be distracted during a war. Federated Department Stores Inc., May Department Stores Co. and EBay Inc. also said they could see sluggish sales.

US Airways Group Inc. reported a 40 percent decline in bookings in the week before the war, cruise lines such as Carnival Corp. have cut prices and Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide Inc. said it may cut more jobs after slashing 10,000 since the Sept. 11 attacks.

Already Hurting

``It`s not going to be a good month for us,`` said Dan Flannery, general manager of the Ritz-Carlton hotel in New York`s Battery Park City, where he expected occupancy this past weekend in the mid-40 percent range instead of the usual 75 percent. Marriott International Inc. operates Ritz-Carlton.

Disney said growth will be slower than expected in 2003, without being more specific, partly because fear of terrorism is hurting travel to Walt Disney World.

The number of people visiting U.S. auto showrooms has dropped 30 percent in March from the year-earlier period, a steeper decline than after Sept. 11, according to CNW Marketing/Research Inc. Demand so far in March suggests sales will drop to 1.38 million cars and trucks for the full month from 1.52 million in March 2002, J.D. Power & Associates said.

Companies were already hurting.

Oracle Corp., the world`s largest maker of database software, said last week it had a ``precipitous falloff`` in February sales because customers put off spending ahead of the war. Textron Inc., the largest maker of business jets, also reduced profit estimates.

A Fine Tonic

Some investors and executives said any sales lost now can be made up after the war.

``A quick end to hostilities would be a fine tonic for the economy,`` said George Mairs, who oversees $875 million as president of Mairs & Power Inc. in St. Paul, Minnesota.

Paul Ballew, director of market analysis at General Motors, said a successful war could spur a second-half rebound in car and truck sales.

Northwest, AMR Corp.`s American, Continental Airlines Inc. and other U.S. carriers don`t have long to wait. Already reeling from Sept. 11, they may not have enough cash to survive a war longer than two months, according to a report by Deutsche Bank. Some analysts are even less optimistic.

``If the war lasts more than a week or two weeks, we`re going to be facing Armageddon for the airline industry,`` said Julius Maldutis, an independent industry analyst.

Airlines may cut 70,000 more jobs and lose $10.7 billion this year, the Air Transport Association has said. American, Northwest and other carriers cut flights last week ahead of an anticipated 10 percent drop in international traffic.

Betting War Will Be Short

Continental Chief Executive Officer Gordon Bethune said he`s cutting 1,200 more jobs to help the airline ``be a survivor.``

Hawaiian Airlines Inc. joined UAL Corp.`s United and US Airways in filing for bankruptcy. If other major carriers follow, it would force banks to write down loans and lead to further cuts in production at makers of aircraft and parts such as Boeing Co. and General Electric Co.

``A war isn`t going to help anybody,`` said Randy Baseler, head of airliner marketing at Boeing, the world`s biggest planemaker, which has halved production since 2001. ``If it`s short, it shouldn`t cause long-lasting problems. Past a couple months, you really don`t know what`s going to happen.``

For now, investors are betting on a short war.

The Bloomberg Airline index rose 10 percent on Friday, the biggest gain since Aug. 21, on hope that a short Iraq war will lower fuel prices. Crude oil fell 24 percent last week, the biggest weekly decline since the start of the Persian Gulf War in 1991. A drop in fuel prices would also help manufacturers of everything from chemicals to paper.

``Now that it is happening, (the war) is a distraction,`` said Martin Bukoll, an analyst at Northern Trust Corp., which manages $320 billion in assets. ``Once we see the outcome, there`s a sense of relief. I hope that improves people`s attitudes and shakes us out of this malaise.``

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.reuters.com/locales/newsArticle.jsp?type=business…

Indian gold demand seen bullish on attractive prices

NEW DELHI (Reuters) - Indian gold demand, which surged after prices fell sharply since the U.S.-led war on Iraq began, is expected to remain firm if the prices hover around current levels, traders said on Monday.



Jewellery makers were actively buying gold in all major cities that witnessed a lull when prices climbed on war fears in February and early March.

"Imports will be good until June because this is a buying season because of weddings and prices are also attractive," said Raju Bhai of Kiran Jewellers from the key gold importing centre of Jaipur.

Gold trended higher in Asia on Monday morning, in line with a rise in crude oil prices and a fall in the U.S. dollar as investors reviewed estimates of the length and cost of the war.

Spot gold climbed to a morning high of US$328.25 an ounce at the start of trade in Asia on Monday, then pared its early gains to trade at US$326.75/7.50.

This was higher than New York`s last quoted US$325.80/6.55 on Friday, but much lower than London`s late fix at US$333.50.

At 06:35 GMT it was traded at $329 an ounce.

Gold was trading at about $356 two weeks ago, and last month touched a six-and-a-half year high of $388.50.

Traders said 300 kg of gold was being imported daily into Jaipur where trade had come to a standstill due to volatile prices.

India imports an average 1.5 tonnes of gold every day to meet its annual domestic demand of more than 800 tonnes.

Dealers said Monday`s increase in prices was not likely to impact Indian demand. "Some increase in price is okay but the prices should not jump," one New Delhi-based trader said.

Safe-haven gold has a history of price volatility in times of war. It gained $45 to $415 when Iraqi forces invaded Kuwait in August 1990, then fell $40 to $336 when allied forces began action to evict Iraq from the Gulf emirate in January, 1991.

Some traders said they were waiting and watching the situation. "The prices may come down further, we are looking at the level of $318 an ounce," Pawan Chokshi said from Ahmedabad.

[ThaiGuru]

http://money.cnn.com/2003/03/24/markets/markets_gold.reut/in…



Gold higher amid war concerns

Safe haven bounces off previous lows as U.S. forces meet resistance in Iraq.

March 24, 2003: 4:32 AM EST

HONG KONG (Reuters) - Gold pushed higher on Monday as key stock market indicators slumped, suggesting more investors could move back to safe haven gold as hopes of a quick U.S. war against Iraq faded.

"The (gold) market has been trading on the belief that the war would be over by Sunday," said Paul Lee, director of Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein.

But the U.S.-led coalition met fierce resistance in some areas over the weekend.

"This is a reality check," Lee said.

Spot gold was quoted at $329.25/330.00 an ounce in Europe at 4:12 a.m. ET (0912 GMT), up from New York`s last $325.80/326.55 Friday as European stock markets lost ground in opening trade.

Gains on the Wall Street stocks dented gold last week with the Dow Jones Industrial Average ending its best week in more than 20 years as investors hoped for a swift end to the war.

As a result, investors sold safe haven gold to a new year-low of $325.50 an ounce on Friday.

"But now people are realising progress is not going to be that smooth," said Martin Mayne, associate director of NM Rothschild (Australia) in Sydney.

Spot gold, along with crude prices, also climbed on news of huge explosions that rocked the Iraqi capital Baghdad.

These explosions were among the biggest to hit the city since U.S. and British bombardments began Thursday in a war to overthrow Iraqi President Saddam Hussein and disarm Iraq, said correspondent Khaled Yacoub Oweis.

An aerial bombardment of the city began shortly after, he said.

Forecasts on the gold price were difficult to make, because the market had become very short-term and event driven, Lee said.

The $330 level, formerly a solid support level bolstered by the 200-day moving average, now looked like it would pose resistance, he said.

"I wouldn`t get too bearish. I think that producers may be buying back soon," Lee added.

Gold producers would continue to close out their hedge books and gain greater exposure to any rally in gold prices.

[ThaiGuru]

11:20a ET Monday, March 24, 2003

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Thom Calandra`s latest commentary at CBSMarketWatch
is headlined: "Crisis moment for gold." You can find it here:

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?
column=Thom+Calandra`s+StockWatch&dist=nwtwatch&siteid=mktw" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?
column=Thom+Calandra`s+StockWatch&dist=nwtwatch&siteid=mktw

Or try this abbreviated link:

http://ls.shapebyforce.com/sbf/117

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.


PS:Nehmt bitte den 2. Link, TG

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.usagold.com

The Afternoon Gold Report...

by Jon Warner

March 24, 2003 (usagold.com)

New York spot gold settled higher $329.10 an ounce up $3.60 an ounce from Friday’s close. "We`ve got lots of questions about the recent volatility in commodities and gold, as well as the resurgence of the stock market," says research director James Tu at commodities specialist Gerstein Fisher in New York. "But we all knew that things would go well in the early part of the war." The war, says Tu, "does not reverse the trends of our exploding trade and budget deficits, which could exceed $1 trillion this year alone. That does not change Fed`s intention to inflate the economy out of a pending collapse. That does not change Chinese and Russian central banks` policies to increase gold holdings." "Monetary policy is loose worldwide as the United States, Europe and Japan lower interest rates, attempting to restart their economies," says John C. Doody of the newsletter Gold Stock Analyst. "Once in the system, this excess liquidity is very difficult to wring out when recovery comes, and invariably results in increased rates of inflation."

Barry Cooper, an analyst at CIBC World Markets in Toronto, sees "deterioration of deposits and lack of new discoveries following six years of declining budgets. Not enough money is being spent to replace exploitation rate that I would estimate is twice the replacement rate," Cooper says. Several investment banks, including UBS Warburg, estimate that $1.5 billion is being spent yearly on exploration for new gold, half the level of 10 years ago. At a recent Canada gathering of geologists and others in the hard-rock trade, Cooper said he noticed few young miners. "Even if the money becomes available (for exploration), from what I saw the average age is over 45, so who is going to do the bush work needed for the grass-roots discoveries? This is becoming an abandoned industry, which usually means an opportunity is lurking."

London gold was fixed this afternoon at $329.45 an ounce, down from $330.15 an ounce at the morning fixing. "Growing concerns that the Iraq conflict will last longer than previously expected have put the dollar and equity markets under pressure this morning, all of which ties in with the improvement in gold," said analyst Rhona O`Connell of the World Gold Council. "After the dollar had strengthened to $1.053 against the euro on Friday it has this morning returned to between $1.06 and $1.07 to the euro. After strong performances from both the Dow and the Nikkei, the majority of European bourses are down this morning, and nervous," she added. "I think strong physical demand will keep the yellow metal supported below the $330 level while the mixed success of the allied forces could see fresh buying of the safe haven metal," said James Moore, metals analyst at TheBullionDesk.com. The $330 level, formerly a solid support level bolstered by the 200-day moving average, now looked like it would pose resistance, he said. "Gold prices plummeted through the 200-day moving average late Friday, but with less-positive news on Iraq over the weekend, renewed buying interest has appeared," said Kevin Crisp, precious metals analyst at Dresdner Kleinwort. DKW`s Kevin Crisp said physical buyers have re-emerged in the gold market today, attracted by the low prices. "There is plenty more potential buying that could come into the market and in particular there is scope for a further and significant unwinding of producer hedge positions," Crisp added.

Earlier spot gold closed at $329.80 an ounce on Monday in Hong Kong, down $3.70 from Friday`s close of $333.50. ``Gold came off on the basis that the war was going to be over within seven to 10 days; that is becoming increasingly less likely,`` said Keith Goode, an analyst at Eagle Research Advisory Pty., a Sydney-based resources consultancy. ``Even when the war is finished, we are going to be having the same economic problems as we were having three months ago: a current account deficit in the U.S., subdued economic outlook in Japan,`` said Pieter Bruinstroop, who manages resource company investments for APS Asset Management Ltd., which has $600 million of investments in Asia. Gold is responding to oil and the movement in the U.S. dollar," said Martin Mayne, associate director at NM Rothschild (Australia) in Sydney. And these markets were responding to the realization that the war was going to take a little longer, Mayne said. "There was a lot of optimism at the close of trading in New York on Friday, that the war was going to be over very quickly and perhaps people even thought that it would be over during the course of the weekend," Mayne said. "Now people are realizing progress is not going to be that smooth," Mayne said. Koichiro Kamei, managing director at Market Strategy Institute Inc. said ``People in the streets are starting to buy physical gold again. It`s a good opportunity to buy because it looks like the war in Iraq is getting longer. It`s not easy to occupy and disarm Iraq. ``My target for gold is $360 by early May as the war drags on. Some people in Japan are starting to buy gold because they think the yen may go weaker. The new central bank governor (Toshihiko) Fukui is taking non-traditional measures`` to revive the economy. "The (gold) market has been trading on the belief that the war would be over by Sunday," said Paul Lee, director of Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein. But the U.S.-led coalition met fierce resistance in some areas over the weekend. "This is a reality check," Lee said. Forecasts were very difficult to make, because the market had become very short-term and event driven, Lee said. "I wouldn`t get too bearish. I think that producers may be buying back soon," Lee added. Gold producers would continue to close out their hedge books and gain greater exposure to any rally in gold prices.

GEOPOLITICAL NEWS:

Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, dressed in military uniform, appeared on state television on Monday and hailed the Iraqi military on the fifth-day of a U.S.-led invasion to overthrow him. He said the invasion forces were "trapped" by heroic Iraqi resistance. Speculation has abounded about Saddam`s fate since the war started with air strikes on Baghdad intended to kill him. Some reports said he was dead, others that he was so badly wounded he had to receive a blood transfusion.

Iraq paraded U.S. prisoners of war on television on Sunday and inflicted the heaviest casualties so far on U.S.-led invaders as resistance stiffened the closer they drew to Baghdad. After three days of unbroken successes and minimal casualties, U.S. and British forces got a taste of what may await them in Baghdad, where the Iraqi government`s best equipped and most loyal forces are concentrated.

U.S. forces on Sunday found what they believe to be a "huge" chemical weapons factory near the Iraqi city of Najaf, about 100 miles south of Baghdad. About 30 Iraqi troops, including their commanding general, surrendered to U.S. forces as they overtook the installation, apparently used to produce chemical weapons.

U.S. Marines were still bogged down on Monday outside the southern Iraqi city of Nassiriya, the key to opening a second route north to Baghdad, after taking significant casualties there on Sunday. Marines were stuck and had to decide whether to fight through to Nassiriya`s bridges over the Euphrates river about 225 miles southeast of Baghdad, or go around the city. U.S. officers said on Sunday that the Marine battalion heading the fight suffered "significant casualties" in a battle with irregular guerrilla fighters known as Saddam`s Fedayeen. U.S. troops captured the northern ends of the two bridges in the east of Nassiriya early on Sunday, opening the way for forces to head north toward the Tigris river and Baghdad. But units of the Fedayeen, an irregular militia force of loyalists to Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, counterattacked. U.S. officers suggested late on Sunday that the bridgeheads were now secure but the area in between was not.

Iraq said on Monday that Iraqi farmers had shot down two U.S. helicopters south of Baghdad and vowed to show the pilots on television, just as it did with other captured and killed soldiers on Sunday. The commander of the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq confirmed the loss of one Apache Longbow helicopter. Iraqi television showed pictures of the downed Apache in a field surrounded by Iraqis waving rifles. The black helicopter, still armed with guided missiles with U.S. markings on them, appeared intact with no sign of having been shot down. Two helmets were shown at the scene but there was no sign of the crew in the television videotape.

The United States demanded on Monday that the Russian government immediately stop firms from selling antitank missiles, night vision goggles and other equipment to Iraq, calling the practice "disturbing”. "The United States has credible evidence that Russian companies have provided assistance and prohibited hardware to the Iraqi regime, things such as night vision goggles, GPS jammers and antitank guided missiles," White House spokesman Ari Fleischer told reporters. "These actions are disturbing and we have made our concerns clear to the Russian government. We`ve asked the Russian government that any such ongoing assistance cease immediately," Fleischer said. He said the United Nations has imposed sanctions on "such trade" with Iraq.

ECONOMIC NEWS:

U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow described current U.S. budget deficits as "regrettable," but said they were still in a relatively modest range and did not appear to be spurring investor worries about inflation. "The long-bond is not reflecting any inflation premium," Snow told the Tax Executives Institute conference. The Bush administration, which is seeking congressional passage of a large tax-cut package, has come under fire from Democrats, who accuse the administration of ignoring the risk posed by higher deficits. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan has also expressed concern about the impact of deficits on long-term rates.

The U.S. war against Iraq and the possibility of terror attacks on American soil pose the biggest threats to the U.S. economy, according to a survey of economists released on Monday. In a canvass of 223 business economists conducted before the United States and Britain launched military action against Iraq, 41 percent tagged war and terror attacks as the main risks the still-struggling U.S. economy faces, the National Association for Business Economics said. The survey was conducted March 3-10 as the United States was still gearing up for war. As the U.S.-led military campaign against Baghdad widened on Friday, stock markets rallied as investors bet that damage to the economy would be limited.

Comment: Gold made gains as the “war premium” on the U.S. dollar and equities markets declined (the DOW was off 300 points at the close of gold trading). The war in Iraq appears to be bogged down after several disappointments taking much of the irrational euphoria out of the stock markets. There was no follow through this week after eight straight positive trading sessions on Wall Street as hopes for a quick end to the war failed to materialize. Investors are once again beginning to take note of market fundamentals including corporate earnings warnings, rising deficits, and the overvalued U.S. dollar. Today U.S. president George W. Bush requested an additional $80 billion related to war costs. This reminds me of the soaring deficits under presidents Lyndon B. Johnson and Richard M. Nixon during the Vietnam War. I would think that the costs of the Iraq War and maintenance of the ensuing occupation army will ultimately be much greater. Add to this the $765 billion fiscal stimulus plan put forward by the president and the case for much higher inflation becomes clear even as the global economy suffers under rising government deficits and rising global energy costs. Precious metals are also supported by signs of growing interest in physical buying in India for Wedding Season, in Japan on the collapse of the Yen, and in China as physical gold becomes available in the newly liberalized gold market.


-Jon H. Warner-


E-Mail the current report to a friend or to yourself.
__________________________
Jon Warner is a professional geologist with nearly 24 years in exploration and project development in both mining and petroleum. Mr. Warner brings to the table an impressive industry contact list, thorough knowledge of the precious metals and energy markets as well as a practical understanding of gold`s role in the private investment portfolio. His strong knowledge in these fields has been demonstrated at the USAGOLD Discussion Forum where he posts on a regular basis as Black Blade.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



We invite you to stay tuned to the gold market through our DISCUSSION FORUM: http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum
featuring round the clock gold news & commentary from the public.



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[ThaiGuru]

http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/

TownCrier (3/24/03; 13:53:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 100191)
Fed ads $4.75 billion to national banking system
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/030324/markets_fed_openmarket_1.html

Fed funds were trading on the easy side this morning, more than 6 basis points below the FOMC tarket of 1.25 percent. The Fed may have signaled its willingness to ease rates further with today`s addition of $4.75 billion in new funds through open market operations in spite of the current ease in the market. The Fed`s New York trading desk utilized ten-day repurchase agreements for today`s intervention.

Note: There is an error in the news brief provided at the url above. Reuters erringly reported only $4.5 billion.

[bluemoons]

Rohstoff-1x1
Silber glänzt matter als Gold

21. März 2003 Mit Silber war in den vergangenen Jahren kein richtiger Staat zu machen. Der aktuelle Preis von 4,34 Dollar für die Feinunze wurde auch schon in den frühen 70er Jahren notiert und ist die seit 1990 weitgehend gültige Preisrange.

Die Lethargie, die sich in den relativ stabilen Preisen ausdrückt, wurde auch nicht nachhaltig dadurch beeinträchtigt, dass sich mit Warren Buffett, Bill Gates und George Soros die reichsten Männer dieser Welt seit einiger Zeit zu einem Engagement im Silber entschieden haben.

Noch keine Renaissance in Sicht

Dabei hatte Silber in den 70er Jahren einmal einen legendären Ruf erworben. Verantworltich dafür waren damals die Aktivitäten der Gebrüder Hunt. Diese hatten mit massiven Käufen den Silbermarkt derart manipuliert, dass die Preise von 1,50 Dollar im Jahr 1972 bis auf 48,70 Dollar im Jahr 1980 explodierten, ehe der Markt dann in sich zusammenbrach.

Von Turbulenzen dieser Art ist dieser Tage wenig zu spüren. Von der teilweise zu beobachtenden Renaissance einzelner Rohstoffe ist das Silber jedenfalls kaum erfasst worden. Auch den zwischenzeitlichen Aufschwung beim Gold hat es nur unterproportional mitgemacht. Und nach der jüngst zu verzeichnenden Preisabschwächung bleibt sogar abzuwarten, ob sich die zu Jahresbeginn von 18 Analysten erwartete Preisverbesserung auf 4,92 Dollar im Jahresvergleich realisieren lässt.

Chronisches Angebotsdefizit

Bei der seit Jahren müden Preisentwicklung spielt vermutlich eine wesentliche Rolle, dass Silber nicht mehr als Spekulationsinstrument wahrgenommen wird, sondern mehr als Industriemetall. Und da die Weltkonjunktur nicht richtig läuft, kommt eben auch der Preis nicht in Schwung.

Allerdings mutet die Preisstabilität vor dem Hintergrund schon erstaunlich an, dass das Angebot die Nachfrage seit Jahren übersteigt. So schätzen Experten wegen steigender Nachfrage das Angebotsdefizit im Jahr 2003 auf 163,0 Millionen Unzen. Das ist nicht nur der höchste Wert aller Zeiten sondern wäre auch die Verängerung der seit dem Jahr 1990 immer wieder jedes Jahr zu konstatierenden Defizite. Da sich die Lagerbestände gleichzeitig auf einem tiefen Niveau bewegen, könnte die Rechnung der Milliardäre Buffett, Gates und Soros vielleicht doch noch irgend wann aufgehen.

Silber ist hinter Gold zurückgefallen

Doch noch scheint die Zeiten für das Silber nicht gekommen zu sein. Bis es soweit ist, können sich die Investoren mit dem Studium der Geschichte und der Hintergrund des Edelmetalls beschäftigen. Bei diesen Recherchen, wobei der seit 1990 vom The Silver Institute publizierte World Silver Survey 2002 wertvolle Hilfe leisten kann, werden sie feststellen, dass Silber nach Kupfer und Gold das dritte Gebrauchsmetall war, welches die Menschen benutzten.

Dabei galt Silber zunächst als wertvoller als Gold, doch dieses Verhältnis hat sich längst gewandelt und im relativen Vergleich ist Silber in den vergangenen Jahren immer weiter zurückgefallen. Dabei hat vielleicht auch eine Rolle gespielt, dass Silber zwar ein seltenes Element ist, es aber etwa 20mal häufiger als Gold vorkommt.

Silber hat viele brauchbare Eigenschaften

Das chemische Symbol "Ag" für Silber, das einen Schmelzpunkt von 961,93 Grad Celcius hat, wurde von J.J. Berzelius im Jahre 1814 eingeführt und es steht an 67. Stelle der Elementhäufigkeit. Allgemein handelt es sich bei Silber um ein weißglänzendes und weiches Edelmetall. Es ist nach Gold das dehnbarste Metall und kann zu feinen, blaugrün durchscheinenden Folien von Blattsilber ausgewalzt werden. Das Edelmetall besitzt die beste elektrische und thermische Leitfähigkeit aller Metalle.

Es wird mit den meisten anderen Metallen - mit Ausnahme von Eisen und Cobalt legiert. Silber besitzt von allen Substanzen der Erde das höchste Reflexions- und Absorptionsvermögen für Licht. Diese Eigenschaft erklärt den strahlend weißen Metallglanz des Silbers. Nachgefragt und genutzt wird es vor allem in der Industrie, der Fotografie sowie der Silberwaren- und Schmuckindustrie.

Leicht manipulierbarer Markt

Die größten Produzentenländer sind Mexiko, USA, Peru, Kanada und Australien und als die größten Unternehmen gelten Industrias Penoles aus Mexiko, Polska Miedz aus Polen und BHP Minerals aus Australien.

In manchen Publikationen wird der Gesamtwert aller Silbermünzen und -barren, die jetzt für den Markt verfügbar sind, auf nur ungefähr 3,5 Milliarden Dollar beziffert. Bei 2,5 Milliarden Dollar ist die jährliche Produktion des Silbers um ein Achtel geringer als die des Goldmarktes.

Auch dies ist ein Indiz dafür, wie schnell der Preis in Bewegung geraten kann, wenn sich erst einmal mehr Investoren als nur die genannten Milliardäre dazu entscheiden sollten, dass Silber wieder eine lohnende Geldanlage sein könnte.




faznet.de

[Culogrande1]

@Siamkaterchen: nicht mal korrekt übersetzen kannst du

Culogrande heisst Riesenarschloch

Aber was ist,du hast doch geschrieen......nie wird er die Drooy so billig bekommen....sind deine Jünger mit ihren Depots schon in den Miesen......ich befürchte ja

Culogrande...sach ich mal ganz vertraulich

[ThaiGuru]

@grossesarschloch, alias "Dottore Lupo"

#5187

Wenn Du darauf bestehst, dass Dein User Name übersetzt "Riesenarschloch" bedeutet, an mir soll`s nicht liegen. Passt auch einwandfrei!

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[Basic]

Hab grad gelesen, dass die Merkel solche Teile sucht,
als DL aufgepasst

[ThaiGuru]

March 24 – Gold $329.10 up $3.60 – Silver $4.35 up 1 cent

Stock Markets Tank, Gold Capped Again By The Cabal

"Yes, we did produce a near-perfect republic. But will they keep it? Or will they, in the enjoyment of plenty, lose the memory of freedom? Material abundance without character is the path of destruction."
-Thomas Jefferson

It’s very difficult to be upbeat when you watch a bunch of criminals toy with the gold market all day long and watch them do so with obvious disdain of any pretense about a free, trading market. As stock markets swooned around the world due to setbacks in the Iraq war, the dollar was hit hard, oil rallied sharply, but gold only popped modestly. The gain in gold was pitiful compared to the bashing it has taken the past six weeks. It traded within a very narrow range all day long, as it was clear right from the get-go that The Gold Cartel was not going to let it stay above $330, its former breakout point. It closed on the low of the session, as the cabal kept its gains to only half of Friday’s losses.

From the Reuters afternoon gold roundup"

"I`m a little miffed at why gold is just treading water here, just staying afloat," said a floor broker. "With the dollar and everything else moving, gold should have a little bit of a lift, and we`re not getting it."

When are the clueless ever going to wake up and tell it like it really is?

The worst news of the moment is the CNBC crowd talking about gold all day long. It is a new barometer of how the war is going. That being the case, you know the goon squad is going to do all they can to keep gold as subdued as possible. Throw the secondary fundamentals out the window once again, All that matters at the moment is how much physical gold is consumed compared to the supply the cabal has mustered up to suppress the price.

I hope I am wrong, but it appears gold is going to be put in a vice for a little while as the US prosecutes the war. All we can do is to be vigilante and look for signs that The Gold Cartel is losing control of their manipulation scheme. That could come at any time. Word is Alan Greenspan has been to The White House three times the past 48 hours Something’s up! Maybe he is concerned about serious cabal problems already, now that it looks like the war will be longer and more expensive than calculated by many.

A first step for gold to start looking healthy would be to close above $332.50. However, it must take out the $347 area to nullify its top formation and must clear $360 to put the bull market back in roaring gear.

The gold open interest continues to drop. It sank another 3368 contracts Friday to 184,733 contracts. All the fluff established since gold’s $330 breakout has been squeezed out of the market. That is a big positive.

The floor is turning very bullish on silver again. The open interest is 86,331 contracts, rising 2658 contracts on Friday alone. The floor believes a good number of spec funds have entered the fray on the short side and are becoming very vulnerable to a flush out on the upside.

It is very difficult to write about the financial markets without getting into the war, as it dominates everything else. On that score, I received the following email:

Bill, you are greatly appreciated by me and many other gold investors I know. I am happy to be a subscriber to the Cafe and a supporter of GATA.

However, I do wish you would be more sensitive and keep your own political feelings about the situation in Iraq to yourself. I, for one, find them irritating. If you want to alienate people who support with gold but disagree regarding Iraq, then you are doing a good job of accomplishing it. (I`ve also read of irritation with your doing this on some gold forums.)

Bill: Just a word of unsolicited advice from a shrink with 31 years experience: Please don`t sabotage all your wonderful hard work with something so controversial. We need you to lead the troops and fight the gold war and that is the only mandate for leadership you have from us. Thanks for listening.

-END-

I realize there may be as many Café members for the war as against and that speaking my mind may cost me business and irritate some wonderful Café members, but sticking to principles are more important than reputation or money. In addition, as it is my opinion this is the most profound blunder in the history of my country, I believe it will have a huge impact on the gold price as the months roll on. Therefore, it need be addressed from time to time.

Part of the reason I am so disgusted with the US Government is that as chairman of GATA, I have dealt with four years worth of lies from the Clinton/Bush Administrations about the gold market. They just don’t tell the truth, even when caught red-handed. How can I expect them to be telling the truth when it comes to Iraq? Worse, without their devious undermining and gold market manipulation, the price would be somewhere north of $600. If that were the case, the devastated economies of many countries in sub-Saharan Africa would have had an incredible lift. More than 100,000 miners would be back at work. Each miner supports 10 to 12 people. There would be a good deal of money that could be directed to deal with their terrible disease problems. Please keep in mind that 2.6 times the amount of people killed on 9/11 die every day in that region of the world due to chronic disease problems. The kids have no hope. I have been there. I have seen them. It is very sad. With a stronger economy, at least there would be hope for many of their aimless youth. The Gold Cartel, at the direction of the US Government, is making sure that does not happen.

That enrages me. It also enrages many other people all over the world that are furious at the Wall Street banking crowd and their cronies in Washington. Now, this same crowd has taken over the war agenda to suit their own needs. Many in the world see that too.

For those that are not concerned with sub-Saharan Africa, just think what these elitists/ bullion bankers/establishment Wall Streeters and certain political leaders have done to the US economy and financial markets. The way I see it, our economic problems and THE WAR stem directly from the rigging of the gold price in the mid-90’s. Simply put:

*The rigging of the gold price was the lynchpin of the strong dollar policy.

*That policy helped to create the bubble by keeping interest rates lower than they would have been and helped fuel the stock market bubble, among the other bubbles.

*A subdued gold price kept an oft-used financial market barometer away from the public that all was not well with the US economy and markets. It helped lull many investors and even major corporations to sleep.

*The powers in Washington have known for some time that we are headed for serious financial/economic problems. They know the bubble market bursts in the US will be as dramatic as the bustling bubble was on the upside. They fear a tanking dollar and have future oil supply concerns. Iraq has plenty of oil and gets paid for its oil in euros, which threatens the dollar and its supremacy.

So, the US invades Iraq under many pretenses, many of which have been proved bogus, already.

Many people and nations in the rest of the world see this. That’s why they are against us. It can’t help but create animosity towards America and engender all kinds of reciprocity of the terrorist kind. That is what our own intelligence department believes is going to happen. It certainly ought to increase the uncertainty in the world and unsettle financial markets.

The bottom line for gold is that it will be a big beneficiary of this mess, as most else goes to hell and a handbag. That includes the US dollar.

GATA’s Mike Bolser sent the following email to GATA’s Reg Howe last night, the contents of which are pretty scary. Obviously, Mike and I want our brave soldiers out of harm’s way and a region of the world they should not be in the first place.

Hi Reg:

Back at home to this telling story:

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,81917,00.html

It details the Russian delivery of GPS jammers. Infra-red night vision equipment and most importantly, anti-tank missiles to Iraq over US strong objections. A Washington Post originator report so it`s credible.

This effectively marks the end of the war since the US cannot order its mechanized armor into Baghdad knowing it is so fortified nor can it utilize its vaunted precision-guided weapons. Moreover, the US cannot, as you have pointed out, run up the civilian casualties with alternate use of unguided ordnance, much of which would fall near, but still off-target. In any event such bombing would only replay the North Viet Nam syndrome...the more bombs the more resistance to bombing.

During every war there is a crucial turning point...a matter of moments that determine the rest of the conflict. Vladimir Putin`s warning use of the term "Grave mistake" a few weeks back was such a moment. We now know what he meant by a "Grave mistake".

The deep Administration concern could be seen on the President`s now uneasy face and it could be heard in the snap remarks from secretary Rumsfeld.

The war is over and the US has lost. Will we just set-up new wells in the South and pump from the large fields just over the border? How could such a condition be remotely acceptable to the rest of the world? Indeed, Baghdad can be re-supplied through Iran if a siege develops.

No, the war planners have made a "Grave Mistake".

Best,
Mike

I hope Mike is wrong on this one, but it sure is something to keep in mind.

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

Monday March 24, 2003

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $10.14, PM $9.91, with world gold at $329.25 and $329.50. Well above legal import point. Several stories have appeared in the Indian press about the strength of the revival in bullion demand, and these are supported by offshore observers. Reuters notes

"- Indian gold demand, which surged after prices fell sharply since the U.S.-led war on Iraq began, is expected to remain firm…Jewellery makers were actively buying gold in all major cities that witnessed a lull when prices climbed on war fears in February and early March"

and HSBC reports:

"Certainly, below USD330/oz physical demand is strong. HSBC traders are seeing good interest from India and Turkey at present."

An interesting article this morning in the Indian "Financial Express" Newspaper confirms what had been suspected last week: Airline cancellations and increases in insurance premiums were partly responsible for the monster premiums seen then. Given a little time and these margins, gold will flow:

""Given the lower prices and the ongoing marriage season, the gold business has been pretty good these days," said Bank of Nova Scotia (of Scotia Mocatta) director (India, bullion) Rajan Venkatesh"

See http://www.financialexpress.com/fe_full_story.php?content_id…

Turkey’s Istanbul Gold Exchange reported strong activity last week also, with imports up 27% to a robust 5.95 tonnes.

The Japanese returning after a three day weekend found that gold in New York on Friday had been hit with a raid just as violent and more successful than the one which suddenly knocked $4 off gold early on their Thursday morning. However, they also found an Iraqi situation looking less simple than it seemed in New York on Friday. So after an initial flurry gold edged higher throughout the day: the active contract closed down 7 yen having been down 21, and $US gold was $329.25, $3.45 higher than the NY close. Volume was moderate, equivalent to 33,437 Comex lots; open interest fell 2,739 Comex equivalent. (NY traded 60,351 contracts on Friday, with open interest slipping 1,368.)

Dealer-Commentators are clearly shocked by the ferocity of Friday’s selling, especially as it was so well matched with dramatic, if incorrect, news, and the breaching of the 200-day moving average has upset many technicians. However, both are aware that the large speculator long of only a few weeks ago has been eradicated – UBS Warburg observes of Friday’s CFTC data:

"….the total traders’ position fell by 2.12 million ounces to stand at 5.87Moz, the smallest since 29 October and close to the sustained levels seen in the summer."

Sentiment measures have also corrected massively: MarketVane’s Bullish Consensus, standing at 51% on Friday evening, has not in fact been so low since January 2002. And some at least are aware of the physical demand situation. Even so, it takes a respectable degree of courage to state, as UBS Warburg does:

"Irrespective of the outcome of the war, we expect gold to trade higher through the year"

and to suggest, like JP Morgan’s Technical Analysts:

"GOLD - Becoming over sold, expect a base in the next 1-2 days - pressure overall -… a short term correction should develop in the coming 1-2 days, with a break of 332/335 confirming that low is in place."

JB

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

CASHIN`S COMMENTS

MONDAY, MARCH 24, 2003

On this day, in 2003, we have opted to omit the usual historic reference. Since history is being made each minute, we will postpone until tomorrow our traditional opening.

Friday`s Rally - A Brief Reprise - The rally on Friday was built on a series of rumors. Each rumor was a bit more optimistic or advantageous than the one before.

Early (pre-opening), there were rumors that UK Intelligence sources had told Mr. Blair`s minister that Saddam was either dead or disabled. Added to similar Thursday rumors, things began on an upbeat - the end is near - mode.

Back To Friday`s Rally - How Traders Think That Markets Think! - We will try to dissect each of the rally aspects of Friday`s celebratory rally to walk you through the kind of instant analysis floor brokers apply to rumors, news and even uncertainty. As noted above, the purpose of this is not just to waste ink but to share some observations inculcated by four decades (plus) of being disciplined by that great disciplinarian - the free market.

Saddam Is Dead - Again - Why More Traction? - Readers may recall "Comments" discussion of the above rumor on Thursday. We wrote about it Friday morning and cited the IRNA story about Saddam`s eldest son.

Net/Net this symbolized how markets were somewhat pre-disposed to latch on the "Saddam is gone" thesis (and....early in conflict "decapitation" hints quick, certain resolution).

Friday`s rumors got big traction by assertions that they had come from UK Intelligence and had been part of a briefing of U.K. cabinet. It was carried on the newswires. U.S. sources responded with an almost impish shrug.

Even if the source had been US or France, the combo was trader attractive. Newswire reports rumor (enhanced credibility). CIA type source (must be knowledgeable and EC). Political briefing (elected officials are thought to love the press - whatever nation)….

Who Caused The Rally? - The sharp price move but limited volume hints it`s all professional traders. The public tends to move in stampedes. That equities have moved in lock-step with the dollar strengthens the pro trader thesis. The implication is derivative based parlay bets.

-END-

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

It was the biggest loss of the year for the DOW, down 307 to 8214. The DOG’s performance was worse as it fell 52 big ones to 1369. If the war news sours, the stock market is susceptible to much greater, dramatic drops. It’s going much lower anyway.

Dick S sends us this Silicon Investor post on:

Japan Land Prices Fall to 1970s Levels

Couldn`t happen here because.....

1. Housing is not a bubble. Prices have not gone up dramatically ...
er.......

1. Housing is not overly heavy with debt...
er.....

1. The Fed has not been monetizing housing and land through agencies like Fannie and Freddie...
er....

1. There are plenty of people who want to buy houses but don`t have jobs or money to sustain these prices...
er....

1. There will not be forced sales onto the market because of mortgage foreclosures..
er...

1. The Fed can keep cutting interest rates...
er.......

Well, Greenspan says housing isn`t a bubble. er.. Of course he says he doesn`t know what a bubble is. –END-

From GATA`s Ed Steer:

4th Quarter Home Foreclosures Set Record

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/030324/economy_foreclosures_3.html

This is only the beginning. Having been through a couple of real estate booms and a couple of busts in my 23 years in the business, I can tell you from first-hand experience that what`s coming down the real estate pipe for the USA is simply beyond comprehension.

Not since the Japanese real estate boom of the early `80s (which is still unwinding to this date) is there any kind of precedent for what`s about to happen. It will be unbelievably worse in the United States. The USA is running a deficit (both trade and current account), the consumer is up to their eyeballs in debt and has no savings...vs Japan at the top when it was exactly the opposite...HUGE surpluses and HUGE savings. Plus the USA has an overvalued currency, and now fighting a war which is showing some signs of not unfolding "according to Hoyle".

America is about to be wiped out...economically and financially. And what comes after that, I don`t even want to talk about. But `the boys` are prepared, as the Patriot Act (#1) is already passed, and Patriot Act (#2) is in the discussion stages. The closer we get to this financial train wreck, the more aprehensive I`m becoming...as Jim Puplava`s 10-Sigma event is out there somewhere.

Best personal wishes.
Ed


Corporate reform on Wall Street, is that a joke! Dick Grasso, chairman of the NYSE appoints Sandy Weill, chairman of Citigroup, to be on the NYSE Board representing the small investor – the same small investors his firm wiped out on the NASDOG collapse. His firm only paid the largest fine ever: $400 million. Thank goodness NY Attorney General Eliot Spitzer was on the ball on that one. Word is he went berserk and Grasso/Weill backed off. The damage was already done, however. It is business as usual on Wall Street.

The gold big picture:

"Dear Bill,

The latest email from the great chartist Jan MvAvity may remind "nervous Nellies" or impatient traders to hang on in:
".... [consider ] the magnitude of the recent base and trend reversal. It does need to clear the $414 and $502 prior peaks to completely ice that cake, but given the magnitude of the base, I am comfortable that it will, in due course.
Reversing a 22 year secular down-trend.... is going to require a great deal of patience by participants. The new gold bug crowd I come across at many Gold Shows may have to develop the patience my generation had to have in the 1970’s. The road from $35 to $850 between 1971 and 1980 had some very deep & scary potholes along the way…"
(Jan`s special is to compare his old charts from the previous gold bull with the situation we have now).
SO: Hang on it there, cafe members!
Lilly Stuart, London "

Dave Lewis, "economics, up close and personal"

Bill;

There are times, more often lately, that the quantitative study of macroeconomics seems, to me, not only a waste of time, but also a smokescreen obscuring a more complete understanding of the subject. It was not always the case that economics and physics would attract the same thinkers. A century ago, economists were worldly philosophers, expected to have an understanding of history and philosophy in addition to their chosen topic. Now, the bar has been lowered. Take any college level book on the topic. National income accounting, supply and demand curves, and potential growth assault the mind. GDP, and current account analysis, to name a few favorite variables, are seemingly analogous to pressure and temperature in thermodynamics, as if water can suddenly decide, today I will freeze at -20C, boil at 245C and ionize in gaseous form.

As I think the world is once again about to discover, unlike water, economies, which are after all, simply the manner in which commerce is conducted within a state, can easily change the rules of engagement. What use quantitative analysis when the state can cede monetary authority to a Central Bank, confiscate private sector Gold, opt in or out of a monetary bloc, or default on international obligations? Yes, quantitative macro can give you a sense of how things are working within the chosen paradigm but its utility is as limited as even our most exotic physical theories become at any event horizon.

Wars tend to mark such event horizons when new rules are being debated. This war and rising market volatility suggest to me that some of the rules of the road are about to give way. Russia seems to me the pivot. If they put their stamp of approval on the Euro, such as might occur in an escalating tit for tat over the arms supply to Iraq, the US$ based exchange rate system is finished. Sadly, this will likely lead to Euro vs. US$ battle rather than a return to hard money, but hey, a few years of hyperinflation ought to teach the error of that choice. Stay nimble out there.

regards

Dave Lewis
http://www.chaos-onomics.com

An early gold share rally fizzled out. The HUI dropped 1.33 to 115.17 and the XAU fell .22 to 62.93. The Gold Cartel continues to pick your pocket and take your money.

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

Ist ja schon bemerkenswert, wie das PPT immer wieder über die Futures an die Naivheit, und die Gewinnsucht der Anleger rankommen will!

Sobald sie die Futures hochgedreht haben, ändert auch die Richtung am DAX.

Eigentlich fast unglaublich!

[ThaiGuru]

http://finanzen.focus.msn.de/D/DS/DSF/dsf.htm?pfad=kursliste…

B Ö R S E N - N E W S

Goldpreis steigt weiter - Hoffnung auf schnelles Kriegsende schwindet

Der Goldpreis ist am Dienstagmorgen wegen gesunkener Hoffnungen auf ein schnelles Ende des Irakkrieges weiter gestiegen. Gegen 9.16 Uhr kostete eine Feinunze in London 333,20 US-Dollar. Das sind 1,05 Prozent mehr als am Vortag. Am Montag war der Goldpreis bereits um knapp 3 Dollar gestiegen.

Die optimistische Haltung über den Kriegsverlauf, die sich in den vergangenen Tagen in den nachgebenden Kursen am Goldmarkt spiegelte, ist einem Händler zufolge inzwischen einem "Realtitätstest" unterzogen worden. Im Irak sind die USA auf eine unerwartet kräftige Gegenwehr gestoßen.

Auch wenn die Frage der Dauer des Konflikts zunehmend vorsichtiger beurteilt werde, sei der Markt aber noch weit von einer größeren Korrektur entfernt, sagte der Händler./FX/he/jh/bi

25.03.2003 - 09:39
Quelle: dpa-AFX

[Fandrich]

Hallo Thai !

Bitte schau doch mal in die Seiten des World Gold Council.Möglicherweise findest Du weitere Grundlagen für Deine Recherchen :

http://www.gold.org/
http://www.gold.org/value/markets/Gdt/Gdt42/GDT%2042%20_fina…
http://www.gold.org/value/markets/Gdt/Gdt42/GDT%2042%20stats…

Gruß Fandrich

[Fandrich]

Nachtrag zu # 5196 :

http://www.gold.org/value/stats/statistics/archive/pdf/World…

[ThaiGuru]

@Fandrich

Vielen Dank für Deine Links

Die Daten des World Gold Council sind jedoch mit grösster Vorsicht zu geniessen, weil sie vielfach schlicht gesagt nicht stimmen. Da das WGC von den Goldproduzenten finanziert wird, darunter auch die grössten Gold Hedger, sind die Zahlen mit grösster Sorgfalt zu betrachten, und zu verifizieren. Vielfach verwendet WGC bei den Zentralbanken Goldbeständen Zahlen des IMF, und der Weltbank, und die sind wie GATA belegt hat nicht korrekt.

Auch die Goldverbrauchszahlen sind mit grösster Vorsicht zu geniessen, da sie meines Wissens, hauptsächlich nur die offiziell bekanntgegebenen Importzahlen der einzelnen Länder wiedergeben.

An einem Beispiel, dem der Philippinen, möchte ich Dir aufzeigen, dass viele Angaben des WGC ganz einfach nicht stimmen können.

Word Gold Council gibt in ihrem neusten veröffentlichten PDF Liste, dessen Link Du heute veröffentlicht hast, die Goldbestände der Philippinen, per Februar 2003, mit 266.4 Tonnen an.

Einer Veröffentlichung der philippinischen Zentralbank zufolge, der Artikel darüber wurde unter anderem auch in der Bangkok Post vom 20. Nov. 2000 veröffentlicht, wurde offiziell bekanntgegeben, dass das fast das gesammte physische Gold der Zentralbank (95%) ausser Landes verschifft wurde. Das Gold wurde "geswapt"! Das heisst nichts anderes, als das Gold existiert nur noch, fals überhaupt, in Devisen. Theoretisch hat die phil. ZB zwar das Recht diese ca. 222 Tonnen Gold wieder zurück in physisches Gold zu "swapen"

Der Empfänger des phil. physischen Goldes war eine "accredited finanziell intitution" (JPM?) wie sie in der Bekanntmachung von der phil. ZB genannt wurde.

Glaubts Du jetzt im Ernst, dass die Philippinen diese 220 Tonnen Gold je wieder sehen werden?



Am 20. November 2000, als die Philippinen ihr Gold "verscherbelt" haben, stand der Goldpreis bei 266.- Dollar pro Unze. Die sogenannte "accredited finanziell intitution" müsste heute aber rund 330.- Dollar pro Unze bezahlen, allso ein Verlust von ca. 60.- Dollar pro Unze Gold, um es wieder gegen *Fiat Money* Dollar der Philippinischen Zentralbank zurück swapen zu können. Falls der Goldpreis weiter steigt, wäre der Verlust, aus diesem "Gold Swap" Geschäft, dementsprechen grösser.



Vor kurzer Zeit, als Gold noch mit 390.- Dollar gehandelt wurde, hätte der Verlust bereits über 120.- Dollar pro Unze betragen. Und das bei ca. 222 Tonnen Gold, oder 7`150`000 Unzen. Das hätte zu einem Verlust aus dem Swapgeschäft mit den Philippinen, von 858`000`000.- Dollar geführt. Dadurch dass das Gold Cabal den Goldpreis wieder "reduzieren" konnte, würde der Verlust heute zur Zeit dieses Postings, Goldpreis 328.- Dollar pro Unze, "nur noch" 443`300`000.- Dollar betragen. Jedoch nur dann, falls durch den Kauf dieser 7.15 Millionen Unzen Gold am Markt, der Preis nicht ansteigen würde. Das sollte eigentlich auch niemand wirklich glauben.

Ob der Markt zur Zeit diese ca. 222 Tonnen physisches Gold überhaupt hergeben würde, ohne dass die Preise Explodieren, wage ich ebenfalls stark zu bezweifeln.

Dass die Philippinen nur eines von vielen Beispielen darstellt, ist ja auch belegt, und bekannt. Viele weitere Zentralbanken dieser Welt, haben Teile ihrer Goldreserven ebenso "geswapt", oder "vermietet". Der Umfang wird von GATA auf bis zu 16000 Tonnen Gold geschätzt.

Doch das Word Gold Council führt diese effektiv nicht mehr vorhandenen Gold Bestände, inkl. derjenigen der Philippinen weiterhin auf, als wären sie noch physisch vorhanden.

Das ist der Grund, wiso die Goldpreise nicht steigen dürfen. Wie man sehen kann, wird auch heute wieder, vom Gold Cabal alles dafür getan, dass der Goldpreis wieder fällt.

Dass die Hintergründe dieses Gold Preis Skandals, und die falschen Zahlen der Zentralbanken von der Presse nicht untersucht, hinterfragt, und aufgeklärt werden, ist ein Armutszeugnis sondergleichen, für unsere sogenannte "Freie Presse"

Gold strong buy!

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

1:32a ET Tuesday, March 25, 2003

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

While you live a (one may hope) normal life, GATA prowls
the recesses of the Internet day and night in search of
insight or at least the stray possibility that the U.S.
government`s surreptitious stranglehold on the gold price
will be broken in our lifetime, or somebody`s.

At this hour CBSMarketWatch has a great interview
with our friend John Hathaway of the Tocqueville gold
fund, who explains why the war in Iraq is not the
important factor in the gold price. You can find the
Hathaway interview here:

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid={B1F15A45-AD4…
BF1C-D0FAAE23D895}&siteid=mktw&dist=nbk" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid={B1F15A45-AD4…
BF1C-D0FAAE23D895}&siteid=mktw&dist=nbk

Or try this abbreviated link:

http://ls.shapebyforce.com/sbf/146

Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan has just announced that it will make the rounds of that country`s effectively
insolvent banks and increase its purchases of worthless
stock the banks are stuck with. You can find that story
here:

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%
20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&refer=topsum&T=markets_box.ht&s2=a
d_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial&mi
ddle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APn.nIBTzQmFuayBv" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%
20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&refer=topsum&T=markets_box.ht&s2=a
d_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial&mi
ddle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APn.nIBTzQmFuayBv

Or try this abbreviated link:

http://ls.shapebyforce.com/sbf/147

And Clive Roffey has a great commentary at 321Gold about Durban Roodeport Deep amid the company`s seemingly
endless management controversies:

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/roffey/roffey032503.html

Roffey concludes that there`s nothing wrong with Durban that a decent gold price won`t cure.

Thanks so much to GATA`s good friends who alert us to
news stories and commentaries of possible interest to
our supporters all around the world.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

[ThaiGuru]

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/features/scandal_sheet.asp?s…

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.usagold.com

The Afternoon Gold Report...

by Jon Warner

March 25, 2003 (usagold.com)

New York spot gold settled lower $328.20 an ounce down 90 cents an ounce from yesterday’s close. "Flight-to-quality buying returns to the precious metals market," said John Person, head financial analyst at Infinity Brokerage Services. Gold prices may not hold up when Baghdad falls, said Todd Hultman, president of Dailyfutures.com, a commodity information provider. Still, Hultman doesn`t expect gold prices to "sell off very far" and "after shaking off the relief of a U.S. victory, prices should resume their upward trend." John Hathaway, manager of Tocqueville Gold Fund said, "The overriding driver of money into gold is the loss of confidence in financial assets" and "If you think that`s going on, then you should have gold." As Hathaway sees it, the reason to own gold is not the battle for Baghdad, but the battered U.S. dollar. The declining value of the dollar against the euro and other major currencies signals that U.S. trading partners are losing confidence in the U.S. dollar as the preferred store of value in a crisis. "People can see that the economic policies that have been pursued to date have not helped," Hathaway says. "They haven`t given us any economic upturn. Consumer confidence and corporate profits are not recovering. We`re in a muddling, unsatisfactory environment" he added. "Whenever you see people lose confidence in financial assets, sooner or later they gravitate to gold," he says. "It`s not the end of the world; it`s just the way the world turns."

London gold was fixed this afternoon at $331.90 an ounce, down from $333.00 an ounce at the morning fixing. Gold gains as investors seek a safer home for their money on fears that the U.S.-led war in Iraq could be prolonged, while the U.S. dollar slides and crude oil prices rise. "New safe-haven buying seems to be creeping into the market at the moment as the easy victory by U.S.-U.K. forces in Iraq seems to be slipping," said James Moore, analyst at TheBullionDesk.com. "With hostilities underway liquidity in the gold market has fallen further and volatile trading looks to be the order of the day," said John Reade, metals analyst at UBS Warburg. "The market will now react to the perceived progress of the war. A quick, clean victory, which is slightly fading, would likely lead to some selling pressure in the near term," Reade said. "Gold is still very much attached to the ongoing situation in Iraq and will continue to be prone to wild swings," said Standard Bank London in a report. Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein analysts noted the re-emergence of physical buying in Asia despite low overall trading volumes. "We suspect that there may be more `buying` to be done, particularly on the part of the producer community," they said.

Earlier spot gold closed at $333.80 an ounce on Tuesday in Hong Kong, up $4.00 an ounce from Monday`s close of $329.80. Gold traded higher as the war in Iraq appeared to be bogging down and the U.S. dollar weakened on growing concerns of war costs. "Over the weekend, the tone of war has changed from quick to protracted, with coalition forces encountering stern resistance," said a Monday report from ABN Amro Australia Ltd. Thus, gold could "quickly regain the US$330 a troy ounce level and remain in the $330-$340/oz range" until more positive news emerges from the coalition`s progress, the report said. ``People are realizing that the war is going to be longer than they first`` anticipated, said Martin Mayne, a gold trader at N.M. Rothschild & Sons (Australia) Ltd. in Sydney. ``Even the places the Allies said over the weekend were secure aren`t as secure as they`d thought.`` Concern the conflict may be drawn out and a report Iraq authorized the use of chemical weapons sent the dollar tumbling against the yen. "People are now estimating that the war will last three months or more, so you could say this might be good news for gold," said Jimmy Pan, chief dealer at Hing Fung Goldsmiths in Hong Kong. "Funds are back in the precious metals markets, although we can`t say for how long," Pan added. Should the buying continue in London trade, gold could pass $335/oz - a point that would rule out another new low, said JP Morgan in a technical report late Monday.

GEOPOLITICAL NEWS:

Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said on Tuesday intelligence information he has received indicates Iraqi military forces may use chemical weapons against U.S.-led invasion forces as they close in on Baghdad. During a Pentagon briefing, Rumsfeld said he received intelligence information "that suggests that the closer that coalition forces get to Baghdad and Tikrit, the greater the likelihood (of the use of chemical weapons), and that some command and control arrangements have been put in place."

A sandstorm was blowing in over U.S. troops advancing on Baghdad early on Tuesday, cutting visibility and hampering operations. In Baghdad itself, the strengthening wind also blew up dust, clouding the sky, cooling temperatures and, combined with oil fires that are still blazing, reduced visibility. Coalition helicopters and A-10 Warthog warplanes are grounded until the storm passes.

U.S. forces attacked elite Republican Guards defending the approaches to Baghdad on Tuesday, while American Marines further south finally punched a path through stubborn Iraqi resistance in Nassiriya. U.S. ground forces probed Republican Guards forming part of a defensive ring around Baghdad while bombers softened them up from the air. A British defense official said the bombardment began on Monday night. "It`s ongoing," he said. A senior Pentagon source said he could not confirm U.S. media reports that Iraqi leaders had drawn a "red line" around Baghdad within which Republican Guards had been authorized to use chemical weapons. Iraq denies that it has such weapons.

British forces south of Basra have blocked an attempted breakout by up to 50 Iraqi tanks seeking to press southward from the edge of the city, a British naval commander said on Tuesday. Captain Alan Massey of the flagship aircraft carrier Ark Royal said British light tanks, helped by small helicopter gunships and surveillance helicopters, had destroyed five to seven Iraqi tanks so far in the fighting.

U.S. Marines finally forced their way across the Euphrates river on Tuesday after a fierce street battle in the southern Iraqi city of Nassiriya that opened up a new line of advance northward toward Baghdad. Two days after a first bid to cross the river and the Saddam Canal was blocked by Iraqi irregulars, the Marines laid down a two-mile corridor of armored vehicles and the convoy charged through the streets under cover of helicopter rockets and a barrage of artillery, tank and heavy machinegun fire.

Hundreds of U.S. soldiers launched an air assault on Tuesday as a major operation to hunt down Taliban and al Qaeda fugitives expanded in southern Afghanistan, a military spokesman said. The operation, which started at the same time as the war in Iraq last Thursday, is being carried out in the former Taliban stronghold of Kandahar province with up to 100 men targeted.

ECONOMIC NEWS:

The Consumer Confidence Index fell to 62.5 in March from an upwardly revised 64.8 in February, the Conference Board, a private business research group, said in a release on Tuesday. Higher oil prices and a stagnant jobs market also weighed on sentiment. It was the fourth consecutive monthly decline. Economists on average had expected the index to fall to 62.4. Consumer confidence is closely watched by economists and businesses for clues about spending, which makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy.

Sales of existing U.S. homes fell 4.3 percent in February, the National Association of Realtors said on Tuesday, cooling from a record sales pace in January. Sales of previously owned homes slid to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.84 million units from an upwardly revised 6.1 million unit pace in January, NAR said.

Comment: Gold traded higher overnight as the U.S. dollar plunged on disappointing news on the war front and a strong rebound for the Japanese yen as the central bank left rates unchanged. However, rumors of a “popular uprising” in Basra against Iraqi forces and Ba’ath party officials pushed the equities markets higher, oil lower and put pressure on gold as some speculators sold gold positions. Physical buying on price dips, especially in Asia, continues to support the gold market on temporary price pullbacks. China has a rapidly growing trade surplus is on record as stating they want to increase their gold holdings to 15% of its foreign exchange reserves. Demand for physical gold remains strong in the newly liberalized Chinese gold market. It is rumored that other Asian central banks have been increasing their gold reserves as well and the Russian central bank has also been adding gold to reserves in favor of the U.S. dollar. Meanwhile gold producers continue to unwind hedgebooks. Today gold producer Cambior Inc. announced they have reduced their hedging commitments by 24% or 307,000 ounces of gold compared to its position at December 31, 2002. Cambior was one of the hedged gold producers that nearly went bankrupt when gold prices rose following the Washington Agreement limiting central bank gold sales. Since then investors have put gold producers on notice that they will no longer support forward sales programs that tend to pressure the gold price. The fundamental case for gold remains strong as the U.S. dollar is under increasing pressure due to growing record levels of government debt, soaring budget deficits and a weakening U.S. economy. The dollar will come under greater pressure as the costs of the Iraq War continue to add up. Yesterday president George W. Bush made his first request for a $75 billion dollar infusion to cover the initial costs associated with the invasion of Iraq with more requests in the offing. The eventual costs of the occupation and reconstruction are certain to be much greater over the coming years. Currently gold remains undervalued and certain to make substantial gains at the expense of the dollar.


- Jon H. Warner -


E-Mail the current report to a friend or to yourself.
__________________________
Jon Warner is a professional geologist with nearly 24 years in exploration and project development in both mining and petroleum. Mr. Warner brings to the table an impressive industry contact list, thorough knowledge of the precious metals and energy markets as well as a practical understanding of gold`s role in the private investment portfolio. His strong knowledge in these fields has been demonstrated at the USAGOLD Discussion Forum where he posts on a regular basis as Black Blade.



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[ThaiGuru]

Sehr gute interaktive Seite von Spiegel, mit vielen Informationen zum Irakkrieg!

http://www.spiegel.de/static/flash/irak2003/irak2003_alt.htm…

[Culogrande1]

Schau mal kastriertes Katerchen...du führst ein beschauliches Leben ohne Sex.

Aber rede nicht von Dingen von denen du keine Ahnung hast.

Wegen der Bezeichnung Culogrande ,by the way zu dir gesagt,hast du den guten DL sperren lassen.

Aber so unterschreibe ich mit einem Nick der es in sich hat

Du kannst dir aussuchen was das bedeuted

Culogrande....sach ich mal so

[ThaiGuru]

March 25 – Gold $328.20 down 90 cents – Silver $4.37 up 2 cents

GOLD POLICE STOMP GOLD AGAIN AFTER $5 RALLY!

“Anyone who has the power to make you believe absurdities has the power to make you commit injustices,” Voltaire wrote in 1767

I woke up early this morning and gold was $4.50 higher. I hoped beyond hope that I was wrong about the goon squad capping any gold price advances. After all, there is now talk in some circles about the war lasting as long as six months, which would devastate the US economy. President Bush is asking for $75 billion to fund just one month of war costs. Oil was up $1 early and the dollar was mostly lower. The news was all gold friendly and stock market bearish. Alas, never fear, The Gold Cartel is here. Make that the PPT too. No way were they going to let the stock market sink again after yesterday’s rout. Gold was soon trashed and S&P buying buoyed a vulnerable stock market.

This email said it all:

Don`t bother writing a Midas for this evening, Bill. I`ll just read last night`s, or the night before that one or...... Simply unbelievable.
Jay

That’s what I do for a living, so I must write a MIDAS. But what is there to say that is worth a tinker’s darn? The only important subject, "How an out of control US Government/bullion-banking combine is destroying what made America so great," draws great ire from a number of well intentioned Café members who recoil at criticism of the motives behind the war effort. Yet, by about a 5-1 number, Café members have urged I carry on and that I plan to do – perhaps with less stridency. There is an important reason for that. The MIDAS commentary is a 4 ½-year chronicle about ruinous US economic policies. The way I see it, the Iraq war is just an extension of those policies. As a result, the big money/power elite are taking the country down. Thus, I must call it the way I see it to maintain continuity and keep the MIDAS diary on message.

The privilege to speak out in America is a very important one. My views are different from the CNBC crowd and The Working Group on Financial Markets. I, and many other Café members, believe in free markets and a free press. Fifty months of effort on GATA’s behalf has shown me we have neither. How bad could it get if no one speaks out? Gold is at the center of the storm. It is the one financial vehicle that stands in the way of the criminal financial operations that have overtaken our markets.

I may be only able to do so much, but I, for one, am not going to stand for it. The letters in the Appendix are representative of the many that have come in today and last night from fellow Café members.

Of note is that the most vocal from those who urge me to stay on message are from former military people, those that have actually fought in wars, like our WW II submariner, Navy George. That brings me to GATA`s Mike Bolser. No one is more patriotic than Mike. For newer Café members, his father was awarded the Navy Cross, the Navy’s highest honor, for his valiant effort at Pearl Harbor. He took off in an unarmed plane to confront the attacking Japanese fighter pilots and lived to tell his tale.
The Café’s Sarge on today’s market action around noon CST:

Today`s intervention was supported by comments like . .. .

12:25PM: Yesterday is gone...the mid-morning rally continues...it is still on light volume and the market will clearly remain sensitive to news on Iraq...but the comments by Kansas City Fed President Hoening about the economy, coupled with Morgan Stanley strategist Barton Biggs comments today that a rally of 40% to 50% is possible if the war goes well, may have some looking past the war...NYSE Adv/Dec 2246/865, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1867/917

In the mean time, gold was sold and index futures bought starting at 9:45 as usual. They skipped a few beats to let the "wonderful" economic news hit at 10:00. Once the knee-jerk reaction to the downside commenced, a 10:15 restart of the sell gold/buy index futures routine reversed both markets and neither has looked back since (i.e. gold to the downside and stocks to the upside).

It is impossible to trade this market. –END-

Sarge,

Biggs, as you well know, is the same BOZO that talked about gold going to $500 one day on CNBC and then was trotted out the next day by Ron Insana saying he really didn’t know what he was talking about. He still doesn’t. He is a stooge for the PPT. While Biggs is talking about a potential 12,000 DOW, Morgan Stanley economist Stephen Roach is writing about a coming recession. Biggs is on the PPT payroll, Roach clearly is not.

By the way, some Café members understandably tend to confuse my roles as GATA Chairman and my writing of MIDAS commentary. Yes, they are closely intertwined, but they are different.

The incoming emails today reminded me of Peter Finch in the movie Network and his screaming out the window, "I’m Mad As Hell and I’m Not Going To Take It Anymore."

Unless we can get every mining share holder on the planet to march on W.S. and DC. this is never going to end!
Im about ready to set myself on fire next to a sign on the Treasury steps that just reads STOP MANIPULATING THE GOLD MKT. Im very close to going over the edge.
This mkt. is truly driving me CRAZY!


Regards,
ON FIRE!

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

Tuesday March 25 2003

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $10.34, PM $12.58, with world gold at $333.10 and $332. Enormous: far above legal import point. Evidently costs of shipping to India have increased with the need to route in differently and rising insurance. What this means, of course, is that the when the conquest of Iraq is complete the end of any war premium will be offset to some degree by falling transaction costs faced by the world’s key consumer.

TOCOM today can only be described as glum: on volume equivalent to only 22,398 Comex lots, 33% below yesterday, the active contract was essentially unchanged (-1 yen) as was open interest (up 122 Comex equivalent). The immediate cause of this was a surging yen, triggered by disappointment that the BOJ failed to announce dramatic new reflation steps, as had been thought possible after an ‘emergency" meeting today. In fact, it is somewhat surprising yen gold was not more pressured: as it was all the adjustment was seen in $US gold, which went out $3.25 above the NY close at $332.75. (NY yesterday traded 35,847 contracts: open interest rose 1,271 lots.)

Equally, however, TOCOM could have taken the example of the more alert Occidental observers, who were disturbed by the limited response of gold to yesterday’s powerful reversals.

"a rather disappointing COMEX session with players still stung from last Fridays move."
(UBS Warburg)

"Surprisingly, the yellow metal had a limited trading range during Comex hours, considering the weakness in the stock markets and USD."
(Standard London).

The reason – not in the least surprising in the circumstances – was the presence of ready selling at the key resistance points:

"Good size volume changed hands during European hours as Trade and spec buying encountered good Investment Bank selling (probably Fund related)."
(Standard again)

"Good two way business was seen right around the 330.00 level on the open with dealers on both sides of the market."
(ScotiaMocatta)

This selling blocked gold from participating fully in yesterdays’ action. Nevertheless, two brave observers who habitually publish their trading recommendations have decided to go long: JP Morgan’s Technical Strategist: ("Buy gold at 331/328 risking 324 targeting 340") and Refco ("Buy 3 June gold at market. Risk close under $326 and expect $345).

Serious students of gold will be interested to hear of a paper published yesterday by AIG’s Bernard Connolly on Japan. Predicting "unconventional" asset purchases by the Bank of Japan, Connolly once again predicts substantial inflation within Japan and material yen devaluation. (It is probable that he with others thought such steps might be announced today: as noted above the retreat of annoyed yen shorts was notable in Japan this morning.) Obviously, this would be positive for the Japanese propensity to hold gold: in fact, it seems likely some of the flurries in the TOCOM gold futures recently have been anticipating this.

Of more immediate interest, however, is Connolly’s observation concerning the risks the BOJ will take if it goes ahead and purchases stock market assets as he expects, possibly pushing them above supportable value:

""If its buying drove up the price of [certain stocks] without affecting fundamentals ….the BoJ would by definition find itself holding a fundamentally-overvalued asset ….one can see this as the mirror imageof the programme of gold sales practised by central banks in, roughly, 1996 to 2000" [JB italics]

Presumably "mirror image" means that Central Banks 1996-2000 were selling gold for macro policy reasons even though they depressed the price to "fundamental" undervaluation, influencing among other things the value of their remaining holdings. Connolly moves in high Central Banking circles: this is a meaningful comment.

JB

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

Who says you can’t fool all of the people all of the time? From Sarge, who relays a wire comment on the stock market rally:

"1:00PM: News that Iraqis are revolting in Basra (and being fired on by Iraqi troops) along with rumors (totally unconfirmed) that Saddam Hussein is negotiating a surrender, has boosted the market....the bond market has stalled out with the stocks rally, and the 10-year is now -3/32...NYSE Adv/Dec 2293/854, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1871/960"

These false rumors are like Viagra for the stock market day after day. Only way the PPT can get the market to go uptown. Talk about La-La Land!

Back to reality:

25 Mar 2003 18:10:36 GMT

British source says unaware of any Basra uprising

KUWAIT, March 25 (Reuters) - British military officials said on Tuesday they had no information on any popular uprising in Iraq`s second city of Basra, but added that they would do everything possible to encourage such a revolt.

"We don`t know anything about a Basra uprising," said a British military source in Central Command in Qatar. –END-

Day after day, the US economic news stinks up the place:

Washington, March 25 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. consumer confidence fell this month to the lowest in almost a decade as the buildup to war in Iraq and higher energy costs threatened to slow the economy.
The Conference Board`s confidence index dropped to 62.5 during the month from 64.8 in February, the lowest since October 1993 and the ninth decline in 10 months. –END-

At least the Japanese admit to propping up their stock market and intervening in other financial markets. The US just lies.

Tokyo, March 25 (Bloomberg) -- Bank of Japan policy makers, meeting for the first time under Governor Toshihiko Fukui, decided to increase purchases of shares from banks by half to 3 trillion yen ($25 billion.)

``We made the decision because the volatility of stock markets has increased recently and we conclude that we need to boost our efforts to help banks avoid stock investment risk,`` the central bank said.

Share prices extended their declines after the announcement. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average fell 2.1 percent to 8262.43 as of 2:19 p.m. in Tokyo.
The decline of share indexes to 20-year lows threatens to cut the capital of Japanese banks and insurers below the level needed to stay in business. Investment losses at the seven biggest banks amounted to 5.84 trillion yen as of March 7, according to Daiwa Institute of Research. –END-

The most prominent news of the day is the growing realization from around the world that freedom of the press in the US is in good part a myth. The accuracy of our press reports and sublimation of others is being questioned too. Once again, we can see the relevance to what I have been saying as GATA’s chairman for so long. What an outrage that the mainstream financial press in the US has blackballed the word GATA for more than four years! It is not allowed to be mentioned.

From the March 25 Wall Street Journal (of all places):

World Media Turn Wary Eye on U.S.
Foreign Reporters’ Accounts of War in Iraq Underscore International Skepticism

By Charles Goldsmith

The unprecedented access journalists from around the world have shared in covering the fighting in Iraq has produced starkly divergent accounts of the conflict, in a way that underscores continuing skepticism about the U.S. mission there….

Skeptical coverage by non-U.S. media, including the BBC, is front and center……

END-

From GATA’s man in Italy:

Keeping journalists away from the action seemed like a workable plan. Launched by aide Karen Hughes during the 2001 bombing of Afghanistan, Bush Jr.`s "war communications plan" kept U.S. atrocities reported widely in Britain and Europe from piercing the American news bubble.

Hughes still works around-the-clock with the Pentagon, State Department and National Security Council. Diebel describes how a White House "Global Communications Team" fills each 24-hour news cycle with a "message of the day" intended to dominate American attention.

"The idea is to present their view of what is happening, and make it the only view," says William Lutz, a Rutgers University English professor and expert on `doublespeak` told . The Star. "They cloak it with authority... "People think, `Hey, the government has more information than I do, their view must be more informed than mine.`"

the rest is here

http://www.rense.com/general36/an.htm

-END-

The New York Stock Exchange nominates a scandal plagued Sandy Weill of the tainted Citigroup for their Board and a couple of days later throws out the most respectable Arab news group:

NEW YORK - The Arab TV network Al-Jazeera said Monday two of its reporters covering the New York Stock Exchange have had their credentials revoked because of the satellite station`s coverage of the war in Iraq.

Exchange spokesman Ray Pellechia denied the station`s war coverage was the cause. Citing "security reasons," he said the exchange had chosen to limit the number of broadcasters working at the lower Manhattan exchange since the war began, giving access only to networks that focus "on responsible business coverage."

Al-Jazeera said it got a letter from the exchange saying the number of accredited TV stations needed to be reduced. It said reporters Ammar al-Sankari and Ramzi Shiber had their credentials withdrawn.

The network said the reason was "Al-Jazeera`s coverage of the war on Iraq."

It said it has covered the exchange for years and believes it is the only channel affected by the new curbs. Pellechia said other broadcasters had been refused accreditation or permission to increase their staff, but he declined to give examples.

U.S. military officials on Sunday criticized Al-Jazeera for carrying Iraqi TV footage of U.S. prisoners of war.

Al-Jazeera is based in the Persian Gulf state of Qatar, which also hosts the U.S. military`s Central Command for the region. The station has gained a reputation as an unusually independent voice in a region where many news media are government-controlled.

Ghazi Khankan of the Council on American-Islamic Relations decried the move, saying Al-Jazeera "is really one of the very few independent Arab media, and to cut them off is a loss to the stock exchange."

He said he understood the sensitivity of the footage of U.S. captives, "but I don`t think this is the right thing to do in spite of the sad pictures."

-END-

What can a censored press and rigged markets lead to? This FT story is most disturbing:

WAR IN IRAQ DIPLOMACY:

Germany to oppose `new US world order`

By Hugh Williamson in Berlin
Financial Times; Mar 25, 2003

Joschka Fischer, German foreign minister, said yesterday that Germany would flatly oppose a new world order emerging from the Iraq war, based on an all-powerful US dictating terms to the international community.

In comments reflecting continued bitterness in Berlin over the failure of diplomacy on Iraq, Mr Fischer also questioned whether US allies Britain and Spain had influenced Washington in the build-up to the Iraq war. His comments are likely to stir resentment in London and Madrid.

Referring to the US, Mr Fischer told Der Spiegel magazine: "A world order in which the superpower decides on military strikes based only on its own national interest simply cannot work."

"In the end the same rules must apply for the big, middle-sized and small countries," he added.

Referring to Britain and Spain, he said: "One must ask whether the countries that are such close partners of the US had or have an influence [over Washington`s Iraq policy]."

He said the positions taken by the British and Spanish governments had led to "major [domestic] problems that bordered on the destabilisation of democratic systems".

Mr Fischer`s remarks, combined with comments he made last Thursday at the outbreak of war, were seen in Berlin as an attempt to counter views among conservatives in Washington that the US would now be able to unilaterally determine the international agenda on disarmament, the United Nations and other issues.

Last Thursday Mr Fischer warned parliament that the US may now mount a series of "wars for disarmament" against "dictators suspected of having weapons of mass destruction".

He said Germany - along with the majority in the UN Security Council - would continue to reject this approach, and would focus on strengthening "international rules and instruments" for disarmament.

Since the war began, both Mr Fischer and Gerhard Schröder, chancellor, have sought to limit further damage to US-German relations by stressing Berlin`s willingness to help with Iraq`s postwar reconstruction.

Mr Fischer said big transatlantic differences remained, based partly on divergent histories. "In the US there is nothing comparable with Auschwitz or Stalingrad, or the other terrible, symbolic locations in [European] history."

-END-

The words NEW WORLD ORDER are very scary after watching what the big money crowd has done to gold for seven years. Who knows what they have in mind? What is their endgame? How do they reconcile a 16,000 tonne gold short position? What is their exit strategy on that one?

Richard Russell on gold last evening:

But I maintain that the Achilles Heel of the US economy at this time is the dollar. I believe that the value of the dollar in terms of other currencies can`t be maintained. And that`s the reason why we have to hold insurance. The best insurance against "fantasy money" is "real money", and "real money is gold".

There are endless arguments regarding whether gold is being manipulated by various interests. Obviously, if gold begins to rise relentless, then questions about the dollar will arise. The Fed and the central banks of the world (who hold huge reserves of dollars) cannot allow the dollar`s "value" to be questioned. Thus, we can expect pressure on gold to continues. It`s a battle of the "inflation masters" against the reality of real money. I can tell you that real money will ultimately win the battle. But unfortunately, I can`t tell you when.

This brings up the question -- Should we time our buying or selling of gold? You can try, and many do, and some reap profits from their timing. But for the vast majority, I say, "Take your position in gold and gold shares and forget it." You don`t buy and sell your life insurance, and I feel the same way about gold. Furthermore, the odds are that when the dollar starts to unravel and gold starts to climb against the dollar you`ll have traded yourself out of the metal and out of the gold stocks. Take a position you can "sleep with" and forget it. That`s my advice.

-END-

Dave Lewis:

"it`s the debt"

Bill;

I received an email from one of your readers listing a number of reasons why the Gold market had stalled and asking for my choice from the list. In moving my writing base from my home to my office, now that my ankle is well enough to hobble upon, I deleted the email so in lieu of a private response, here goes. In addition to the pre and post war gaming, the new man at Treasury and more generic relief of a very overbought situation, Gold has also, in my view, been suffering from a lack of debt monetization by the Fed.

I find it ironic these days as the President pitches his $75B War bill and Congress debates tax cuts that the Federal Government has been bumping against the debt ceiling of US$6.4T since the middle of February. What this means is that the single most potent fuel for the Golden fire, funding the government through the printing of money, has been withheld from the market. The thinking, as best I can discern, is that the Treasury figures it can scrape through until April`s tax deadline and then use that cash to get into the summer. It is possible that one method the Treasury is using to "scrape by" is to play the markets, such as Gold/Oil/Stocks, which evokes bad memories of Bank Negara. I caution, however, that the above is entirely unfounded speculation on my part. Regardless, one focus of mine in the days ahead will be Treasury tax receipts in the coming weeks. Should they come in below budget, which seems a good bet, the need to monetize, and thus desire to hedge against that action, will only grow.

Returning to the main point, the meat of Gold`s advance during its run came as the Fed, notably Bernanke, who now thinks higher crude oil prices mean we should ease, and Greenspan spoke of the wonders of the printing press, while the government was issuing debt hand over fist. I think it worth noting that Greenspan has already spoken of the desirability of dispensing with the debt ceiling altogether. Until that comes to pass, the impetus of debt monetization on the price of Gold might come in fits and starts, as subsequent debt ceilings are raised and then hit.

regards


Dave Lewis

http://www.chaos-onomics.com

The gold shares continue to hold support. The HUI rose .55 to 115.76 and the XAU rose .53 to 63.46. They are meandering right now, with a few taking some serious belts. They remain WAY undervalued compared to bullion and are spectacular buys. It appears The Gold Cartel is going to sit on gold for the time being, but the strong gold fundamentals continue to build, making their efforts difficult and very expensive. One day the crooks will lose control of their rig. Watch for the gold shares to anticipate what’s coming and lead the way up.

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[erdede]

hallo zusammen,

hier noch ein interessanter Link, falls ihr ihn noch nicht kennt, welches genau die Absichten der USA mit dem Irak-Krieg dokumentiert.


http://www.staatsbriefe.de/1994/2003/kriegsgruende1.htm

Gruss
erdede

[ThaiGuru]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/2888777.stm

Wednesday, 26 March, 2003, 15:27 GMT

Gold smuggling hits Ethiopia

Ethiopia`s drought-hit economy is losing $30m (£19m) a year from gold smuggling, its government believes.

Local gold diggers often sell on the black market

Up to 3 million grammes are leaving the country every year, according to Khasu Tadesse, head of the Mines Ministry`s project co-ordination department.

Local diggers throughout Ethiopia are selling on the black market to traders from neighbouring Sudan, Kenya and Somalia, he said.

The government is working on getting small-scale miners to work together so as to receive international prices while still selling locally, thus making sure their earnings enter the formal economy.

Drought

At present, Ethiopia has only one operating gold mine, in Lege Dembi about 300km from the Addis Ababa, producing about 300kg a year

A number of foreign firms have licences to prospect for access to the country`s 500 or so tonnes of proven reserves.

With drought threatening to cause widespread malnutrition across the country after its harvest failed, Ethiopia needs all the foreign currency it can get.

Its main export crop, coffee, produces little enough money in any case with coffee prices at a 30-year low and perhaps as little as $1.20 a kilogramme going to the growers.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.usagold.com

The Afternoon Gold Report...

by Jon Warner

March 26, 2003 (usagold.com)

New York spot gold settled higher $329.70 an ounce up $1.50 an ounce from yesterday’s close. April gold was in the middle of rollover period as speculators protected long positions from physical delivery before first notice day on Monday. Many funds liquidated during last week`s drop in gold prices below $330, and the market is watching to see how many of the remaining longs would switch into next active June. "Three years ago, the global economic markets experienced a paradigm shift, from `paper assets` to `hard assets," said Leonard Kaplan, president of Prospector Asset Management. "The global equities markets continue their vicious bear market and hard assets, such as gold, are highly sought. These cycles in the market tend to last for many years and perhaps even decades." Gold is in a long term secular bull market and prices should rise to the $380 to $400 price level by the end of the year, he added. Moreover, annual gold production is believed to decline in coming years just as demand is surging, he said. Meanwhile, de-hedging by producers also bodes well for gold, Kaplan said. When companies hedge gold, they lock in prices on the future delivery of the metal. When they de-hedge, the price barrier for gold eases.

Chuck Butler, president of Everbank World Markets, said the dollar has run in five to nine year cycles since 1972, alternating with uptrends and downtrends. The last uptrend ran from 1996 to 2001. The current downtrend began in February 2002, he said. "We`re just barely one year into this," Butler said. Moreover, once the war with Iraq is over, the dollar will resume declining because "basically, nothing has changed," he said. The cost of the Iraqi conflict and rebuilding will be factored into a weak economy and deficits, Butler said. The current account deficit, driven by a widening trade deficit, stands at a high 6 percent of the gross domestic product. The dollar has to weaken to boost exports.

London gold was fixed this afternoon at $329.95 an ounce, up from $329.60 an ounce at the morning fixing. "Gold is going to remain in a nervous state for the time being as the war in the Gulf continues to dominate the news," said James Moore, an analyst at TheBullionDesk.com in London. The mixed success of allied forces has kept gold confined to a narrow range, said Moore. "Although gold is finding some good support from physical demand, liquidation from speculators and risk-averse investors continues to weigh on the metal," said John Reade, metals analyst at UBS Warburg "Barring a catastrophe, it is hard to see gold rallying sustainably until the conflict in Iraq has ended, or at least moved from the front to the inner pages of world newspapers," Reade said. "Although the technical support level of $330 has been breached the price has been given some support by the recent weakening of the dollar," said Barclays Capital in a report. "Below this price the next level of support is located around $315, the last level at which there was substantial physical demand," it said. Rainer Guntermann at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein said gold remains at the mercy of the dollar and market interpretation of events in Iraq. While speculative funds are selling, producers are still buying - "something that should keep the market in equilibrium around the 330 usd/oz level," he added.

Earlier spot gold closed at $329.25 an ounce on Wednesday in Hong Kong, down $4.55 an ounce from Tuesday`s close of $333.80. Spot gold traded in a narrow range as dealers remain reluctant to take positions with Comex options` expiry in NY later, the end of the Japanese fiscal year and the end of the first quarter all conspiring to wring interest out of market. "It is too early to call the death or the return of those markets, given that they are so dependent on news events," said Simon Klimt, head of commodities at Westpac Banking Corp in Sydney, referring to the oil and gold markets. "My view is that we may need another shake-out, down to $315 to get the remainder of the weak longs out," Klimt said. "The problems with North Korea have not disappeared. The commencement of Gulf War Two has just pushed them to the background," Commonwealth Bank of Australia chief commodities analyst David Thurtell said in a report. "Asian investors will be buyers once North Korea re-emerges as an issue" said Thurtell. "We have seen a bit of profit-taking at this level, " said Wong Fook Yun, head of precious metals trading at NM Rothschild in Hong Kong. "There was some selling in platinum today and that pulled down gold," Wong said, referring to the Tokyo precious metals market.

GEOPOLITICAL NEWS:

U.S. commanders said on Wednesday their troops had killed large numbers of Iraqis in an overnight battle south of Baghdad, although reports of hundreds of Iraqi deaths could not be independently confirmed. U.S. troops fought a fierce battle with Iraqi forces on Wednesday for control of a bridge over the Euphrates River close to the southern Iraqi city of Najaf, a U.S. military officer monitoring the clash said. He said an unspecified number of U.S. tanks and Bradley fighting vehicles had been destroyed by Iraqis armed with rocket propelled grenades and automatic rifles during the clash at Abu Sukhayr, 13 miles southeast of Najaf. U.S. officers in the field reported a furious two-hour battle between American tanks and Iraqi fighters with rocket-propelled grenades near Najaf 100 miles south of the capital. A dozen or more U.S. tanks became stranded on the far side of a river after Iraqis blew up a bridge they had crossed. More U.S. tanks were sent in to help.

A column of Iraqi tanks and armored personnel carriers poured south out of the Iraqi city of Basra on Wednesday and came under attack from U.S.-led forces, a British military spokesman said. "There is an armored column that came out of the southeast of Basra down the Al Fao Peninsula and it has been engaged. We have no battle damage information," the spokesman said. Asked about the size of the column, which some reports put at up to 120-strong, he said: "That has got to be an estimate."

Repeated air raids struck the southern outskirts of Baghdad on Wednesday and another hit an area housing the television center, but Iraqi television remained on the air in the capital. The United States said it had targeted Iraqi television and satellite communications in an effort to damage President Saddam Hussein`s ability to control the country.

North Korea elbowed its way back to prominence on Wednesday when it pulled out of talks with U.S. officers and a U.N. envoy said the North was continuing to prepare a reprocessing plant at the heart of a nuclear standoff. U.S. and South Korean officials have said communist North Korea might try to stage an incident of some kind -- possibly a missile launch or a naval incursion -- to draw attention to itself now the spotlight was on the U.S.-led war against Iraq.

ECONOMIC NEWS:

Business spending fell and home buying slowed sharply in February, the government said on Wednesday. Durable goods orders in February sank 1.2 percent, the largest fall since Excluding demand for defense goods, which rose sharply as the nation geared up for war, the number was even worse, with orders tumbling 2.7 percent, the biggest drop since September. Non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, seen as a proxy for business spending, fell 2.8 percent.

November, while sales of new homes fell to their lowest level in more than two years. Commerce said sales of new homes fell 8.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted 854,000 unit annual rate, far lower than the rate expected by analysts. The second consecutive monthly decline came in spite of some of the lowest mortgage rates since the early 1960s. Sales were down in every region of the country except the West, where they were unchanged.

Bank for International Settlements General Manager Andrew Crockett said on Wednesday the growing U.S. trade deficit and the nation`s low savings rate were absorbing too much of the world`s capital and were unsustainable. "That cannot persist and eventually there will be an unwinding," Crockett said in an address to a British-Swiss Chamber of Commerce luncheon.

Mounting U.S. job losses pushed up credit card delinquencies in the fourth quarter of 2002 to the highest level since the American Bankers Association began tracking the data in 1990, the group said on Wednesday. Credit card delinquencies climbed to 4.07 percent of all accounts in the quarter, up from 4 percent in the third quarter of 2002, which was the previous high, the American Bankers Association said in a statement. "The rise in delinquencies is not surprising given the cumulative weight of layoffs and the poor prospect for reemployment in the face of anemic job growth," said James Chessen, chief economist for the ABA. Consumers tend to rely on savings and credit cards to get through financially tough times, and the final quarter of 2002 was such a period, Chessen said.

U.S. consumer confidence fell to the lowest level in nearly a decade last week, reflecting economic uncertainty and the effect of rising gasoline prices ahead of the fighting in Iraq, a survey showed on Tuesday. ABC News/Money Magazine said their weekly Consumer Comfort index fell to -28 in the week ended March 23 from -25 in the prior week. The index, a scale of plus-100 to minus-100, surpassed the nine-year low of -27 it reached during the week of Jan. 19, 2003 to reach its lowest level since December 1993. Only 21 percent of respondents rated the economy in excellent or good shape, down a point from 22 percent in the previous week. The survey`s buying climate gauge, which assesses Americans` willingness to part with their cash, fell to 33 percent from 34 percent.

The Mortgage Bankers Association of America said its weekly seasonally adjusted index gauging mortgage application activity for the week ended March 21 stood at 1,520.9, down 9.1 percent from the prior week`s all-time high of 1,673.4. Sales of U.S. existing homes fell 4.3 percent in February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.84 million units from an upwardly revised 6.1 million-unit rate in January, the National Association of Realtors said on Tuesday.

The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission on Wednesday ruled that energy suppliers owe the state of California $3.3 billion in refunds from overcharges during the state`s power crisis, far less than the $8.9 billion the state demanded. But the figure is higher than the $1.8 billion refund recommended by an agency administrative law judge in December. The $3.3 billion sum reflects a recalculation of natural gas prices that FERC said was necessary because of faulty natural gas price indices previously used. However, the state still owes about $3 billion to suppliers, meaning that California stands to receive about $300 million.

Comment: Gold held in a tight trading range as the focus is split between gold as war insurance and waiting for April options on futures to expire at the end of the day. Generally the price of gold will trend toward the expiry price as speculators are faced down by deep pocketed institutions. The Iraq War is dominating headlines now as the U.S.-led coalition has bogged down against stiff resistance. It is reported that Iraqi exiles are returning to Iraq not to fight their enemy Saddam Hussein but to fight against the coalition forces. The U.S. 4th Division is rapidly sending 30,000 reinforcements from Fort Hood to back up forces already in the region. The U.S. economy continues to dive in a deepening recession as government, corporate, and consumer debt levels keep rising amid a backdrop of growing international tensions. Today a long list of grim economic news was released with no end in sight (see above). As the U.S. dollar weakens along with the other major world currencies it continues to lose its place as the world’s premier reserve currency and as a safe haven. The shift away from paper based assets including stocks toward hard assets continues. It is reported that physical gold demand is growing worldwide even as gold based paper investments are held in check. The shift toward hard assets will likely grow from a trickle toward a very strong demand situation in financial markets as economic and geopolitical conditions worsen. Considering the state of the global economy and worldwide conflict the fundamental case for precious metals is strengthening.


- Jon H. Warner -


E-Mail the current report to a friend or to yourself.
__________________________
Jon Warner is a professional geologist with nearly 24 years in exploration and project development in both mining and petroleum. Mr. Warner brings to the table an impressive industry contact list, thorough knowledge of the precious metals and energy markets as well as a practical understanding of gold`s role in the private investment portfolio. His strong knowledge in these fields has been demonstrated at the USAGOLD Discussion Forum where he posts on a regular basis as Black Blade.



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[ThaiGuru]

March 26 – Gold $329.70 up $1.50 – Silver $4.37 unchanged

The Risk/Reward Opportunity On A Gold Play Lookin Good

"Nothing in the world can take the place of persistence. Talent will not; nothing is more common than unsuccessful men with talent. Genius will not; unrewarded genius is almost a proverb. Education will not; the world is full of educated derelicts. Persistence and determination alone are omnipotent."
Calvin Coolidge

Not much to bring your way today from moi. The quietest session in some time. Gold was held in check and traded within the confines of a very narrow range. A brief rally up to $331 was immediately squelched. Today was April option expiry, so the dealers made sure they won again on the $330 strike price.

The short-term importance of closing above $332.50 is becoming more apparent. A close above that key level could send us shooting up fairly quickly.

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/43

Comex open interest continues to drop, falling to 182,966 contracts, down another 3038 contracts. The specs are running for the hills. The irony is that gold has been getting more play in the media the past few weeks than it received the last five years combined.

Don’t have the chart, but this note from a fellow Café member, lays out a solid, developing technical picture:

Dear Bill,

I thought you would like to have a look at this 5-year weekly chart of spot gold/$. Note how gold/$ held support at $326. This week the support on that green line is just above $326 which has barely held as the low so far this week has been around $325.75. So I guess if gold can hold its head above $326 this week and keep trading higher next week we could some kind of bottom has been formed. The long-term picture still looks bullish nevertheless as you can see there is still the white trend line to provide support if we break and close below $326 this week.

All the best,
Mario

The risk/reward of a gold play is now extraordinarily positive. Downside seems fairly limited, while the upside is HUGE!

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

Wednesday March 26 2003

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $11.69, PM $10.17, with world gold at $328.25 and $329.25. Continuing hugely above normal legal import point. HSBC says:

"Overnight strong demand out of India has been seen, in a range of orders from USD332/oz down to USD328/oz." and observes:

"…in line with what HSBC saw towards the end of last year, the WGC report that demand from India (the world`s largest consumer) rose 24% in Q4 to 193.5t."

At these prices, Indian importers could afford to pay well over $5 an ounce in extra shipping and insurance costs: as mentioned yesterday, the end of fighting in Iraq seems more likely to support gold by cutting Indian transaction costs than to weaken it by removing a "War Premium". The Indian rupee reached an 18-month high today.

TOCOM continued glum. No doubt dispirited by the thorough eradication of the Asian-day gains by NY yesterday, the active contract lost 13 yen, but a somewhat weaker yen resulted in $US gold going out 5 cents higher than NY’s close at $328.30. Volume slipped 3.4% from Tuesday to the equivalent of 21,642 Comex lots: open interest declined by 397 Comex equivalent. (NY yesterday traded 57,665 lots: open interest dropped sharply, by 3,038 contracts.)

What is quite possibly dispiriting TOCOM seems to be dawning on Western observers too: as UBS Warburg puts it:

"Although gold is finding some good support from physical demand, liquidation from speculators and risk-averse investors continues to weigh on the metal. Barring a catastrophe, it is hard to see gold rallying sustainably until the conflict in Iraq has ended, or at least moved from the front to the inner pages of world newspapers. Then attention will return to economic rather than geopolitical drivers…"

In short, there is a seller at around the technical breakout point of $330 give or take $2 or so capping the market. There are some reasons to believe this obstacle will be withdrawn when Iraq resolves. In the meantime, considerable supplies of physical will be needed to hold the price here.

JB

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

Seit vorgestern wird an der Thai Börse eine Mining Firma *THL* gehandelt, die von der Thai Regierung bereits verschiedene 25 Jahres Gold Schürf Lizenzen erhalten hat, und nächstens in Produktion gehen wird. Die Firma ist die einzige Gold Aktie an der Thai Börse. *THL* Hat grosse nachgewiesene Goldreserven, und erwartet Einkommen aus der Goldproduktion ab dem 1. Quartal 2004.

Die Produktionskosten werden mit ca. 100.- US Dollar angegeben.

Es handelt sich um "Open Pit Mining", bei einem Goldgehalt von 4,4 Gramm Gold pro Tonne. Einer erwarteten Verarbeitungskapazität von ca. 1000 Tonnen pro Tag.
In der ersten Phase ist der Abbau von 430000 Unzen geplant.

Die Firma THL hat ursprünglich praktisch ausschliesslich Zinn abgebaut, war im Zuge der Wirtschaftskriese in Thailand, und den gleichzeitigen tiefen Zinn Preisen fast Konkurs gegangen, und ist vom Handel einige Jahre suspendiert worden. Die Firma THL hat sich nun restruktuiert, neu kapitalisiert (privat), und wird seit Dienstag wieder gehandelt. Die 94.1%ige Tochterfirma TKL, über die die Goldproduktion laufen soll, wird vom thailändischen Board of Investment gefördert, und hat 8 Jahre Steuerbefreiung erhalten.

Eine andere Gold Mining Firma, Kingsgate, *KCN* die in einem Joint Venture mit einer Thaifirma zusammen, erfolgreich, und auch sehr gewinnbringend bereits Gold fördert, und viel vom Engagement in Thailand profitiert, wird, und wurde am Stock Exchange of Thailand, *SET* ja leider nicht gehandelt.

Bei THL handelt es sich meiner Meinung nach um eine sehr grosse Chance, sich in Thailand an einer Gold Mine zu beteiligen, mit Risiken, aber auch überaus grossen Chancen.

THL wird nur in Thailand am SET gehandelt, und kann von Europa aus, über eine gute Bank hier in Thailand gekauft werden. Eine weitere Möglichkeit direkt am SET in Thailand zu handeln, bietet sich durch die Eröffnung eines kostenlosen Online Kontos bei einem thailändischen Broker, wie zum Beispiel http://www.seamico.com. Das klappt auch von Europa aus, und benötigt nur eine Mindesteinzahlung von ca. 500.- Euro. Zudem hat man dort die Möglichkeit innerhalb weniger Minuten, ein 14 Tages Testkonto, mit echtzeit Kursen der Thaibörse, zu eröffnen.

THL wurde am Dienstag dieser Woche, nach der Wiederzulassung am SET, mit einem Abschlag von gut 70%gegenüber dem letzgehandelten Preis von vor der Suspendierung von 6,80 THB, mit 1,92 THB gehandelt. Am Mittwoch hat die Aktie weiter konsolidiert, und schloss mit 1,68 THB. Heute Donnerstag, Eröffnung mit 1,70. Hoch 1,74, Tief 1,63 THB.

Schlusskurs heute Mittag 12.30 Uhr war 1,65 THB.

1 Euro = ca. 45.- THB

Ich selbst habe bereits gekauft, und sehe darin eine zwar risikoreiche, aber auch extrem chacenreiche Langzeit (1-2 Jahre, oder mehr) Investitionsmöglichkeit in die erste, und einzige in Thailande gehandelte Gold Minen Aktie.
Falls die Goldpreise am Markt stark steigen, dürfte sich das Potenzial von THL noch gewaltig mehr erhöhen.

Falls sich jemand der Leser näher für *THL* interessiert, werde ich einen eigenen Thread dafür eröffnen.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

17/03/2003 13:57
Headlines: A permission of THL share to resume trading (Reformatted)

Translation


THL 151-074/03/2546

13 March 2003


Re : Request for a permission of "THL" share to resume trading in the
Stock Exchange of Thailand

To : Director of the Market Regulation Department
The Stock Exchange of Thailand

Reference: SET letter No. Bor. Jor. 451/2545 dated 17 July 2002


According to the above mentioned SET letter informing the Company
regarding the criteria and procedure to trade the Company share in the Stock
Exchange of Thailand which SET considers whether the Company has restructure
its debt of more than 50% of the total debt and also whether the Company`s
Rehabilitation Plan has been approved by the shareholders.

THL would like to inform that the Company`s Rehabilitation Plan (or
Operational Plan) has been approved by the Annual General Shareholders Meeting
No.4/1998 on 28 April 1998. In addition, the Company also has restructured its
debts more than 50% of the total debts since July 2001. Thus, the Company has
not been forced to undertake this action by any law or legal reason, but rather
our plan was initiated in accordance with our Company`s financial plans.

THL`s Operational Plan, which was approved by the Annual General
Shareholders Meeting No. 4/1998 can be summarized as follows:-

1) Restructure the organization by merging all affiliated companies into the
parent Company, Tongkah Harbour Public Company Limited (THL)THL had already
complied by increasing its investment in its related companies resulting in
THL`s shareholding in these companies (now its subsidiaries) as follows:-
Company % holding % holding
(Previous) (At Present)
Cholsin Limited (CSL) 41.85 72.10
Tungkum Limited (TKL) 41.36 94.10
Sky Cliff Limited (SCL) 75.00 75.00

The above restructuring benefits the Company in terms of management efficiency
and profit sharing.



2) Expediting mining operations to generate income

2.1 Andesite Quarry

CSL completed its crushing plant installations and has been operational since
late 1999. Capacity utilization average in 2002 was 55%.


Unit : million Baht

Year 2000 2001 2002

Sales 20.82 24.86 29.20
% increase - 19.40% 17.46%

Production cost 18.48 23.27 24.37
% increase - 25.92% 4.73%

Gross Margin 11.24% 6.40% 16.54%


2.2 Gold mining (Tungkum Limited (TKL))

TKL has diligently attempted to expedite the approval of its gold
Mining Licenses Applications (MLAs) during the past several years. Currently,
TKL has been officially informed that three (3) mining licenses out of the
first batch of six (6) MLAs, were approved in late 2002. The remaining three
(3) license applications are still undergoing final approval process. However,
TKL is confident that they will be approved soon as it has completed all
requirements.
Once the remaining three (3) MLAs receives final approval, TKL will
pay the agreed upon bonus of Baht 6.5 million to the Department of Mineral
Resources for the six (6) MLs and Baht 1.7 million to Forestry Department and
Agricultural Land Reform Office (ALRO) for land use fees. TKL expects that
final license approvals will be completed within the first quarter of 2003.
TKL will then be able to commence construction of its infrastructure and
processing plant which, according to the operational plan, will take about
1 year to complete. At this time of writing, all 6 (six) mining licences
have just been received.
Additional investment is expected to be about Baht 750 million which
will be in the form of loans from financial institutions. TKL is currently
in the final process of negotiation with both local and foreign financial
institutions.
Mining production should start generating income in the first
quarter of 2004. The first phase of mining will cover an area of 2 square
kilometres(approx. 1,300 rai). In addition, the Company has filed 120 mining
licenses applications covering about 55 sq km and which are awaiting approvals.

The project`s technical and financial viability has been
established by the staff of both THL & TKL in conjunction with third party
expertise. For the purpose of submission to financial institutions for loan
approvals, third party consultants are being solicited to verify project
feasibility and the mining program.
On the basis of the planned mining program, the project will
produce approximately 0.43 million ounces of gold during the first phase of
open pit mining in surface and near surface oxide zones comprising an average
grade of 4.4 g/t.This estimation includes the nearby target areas containing
0.18 million ounces of gold (oxide zones), which require detail plans and final
approvals for mining. However, the Company expects that the approval will come
in a timely fashion as the proposed land use is for mining purpose only without
any construction of plant and infrastructure facilities. TKL has acquired all
necessary possessory surface rights if they are not already covered under
zoning of mineral areas pursuant to TKL`s concessionary rights to mine.
In the event that the nearby target areas do not receive mining
approval in time to meet plant production scheduling, TKL will contain mining
within the first six (6) MLA areas. This will involve deeper mining accessing
primary sulfide zones to depths of over 60 metres as compared to the average
depth of 35-40 metres in the initial proposed program.
The above estimation is based on initial open pit mining to an
average depth of 35-40 m, but resources therein do not include deeper, primary,
ore zones and underground mining wherein, core and reverse circulation (RC)
drilling has intercepted ore grade zones ranging to 55 g/t. Following are
general project assumptions:-

1. Gold Price 310 USD / Ounces
2. Initial investment (Equity) Baht 347 million
3. Additional Investment Approx. Baht 750 Million
4. Plant Capacity 365,000 tons per year
5. Project Life (Phase I Mining) 10 years (Mining License is for 25 years)
6. Discount Rate 6.5%
7. Exchange rate Baht 43.00/USD

Note : The above initial investment consists of exploration
expenditure and administrative costs. The additional investment is required for
infrastructure construction, processing plant installation, and other pre-startup
expenses.

According to the above assumptions, it is estimated that the
project`s first phase will have an approximate total revenue of Baht 5,700
million. The overall drilling showing mineralization to over 300 m depth
(with one hole (-60 degrees) still in mineralization at 600 m depth and
averaging over 2.9 g/t) Internal rate of return is projected to be about 45%
or more. In the unlikely event that nearby surfaces areas are not approved
in a timely fashion for input into the mining program and ore processing
schedule, the estimated internal rate of return will be about. 39%.
It must be noted that mining ventures can involve high risks
and high returns. Project revenue will be significantly affected by the gold
price which fluctuates in accordance with world commodity markets in precious
metals. TKL can only optimize mining and processing management to minimize
overhead costs. However, the low production costs in surface and near surface
mining and processing, such as the Tungkum Project, can result in high profits
where the gold market price is near or above USD 300 per ounces.

Projected revenue and estimated net profit will be as follows:-

Year Projected Estimated Estimated
Revenue Earning before interest, Net Profit
(Million Baht) depreciation and amortization Before tax*
(Million Baht) (Million Baht)
1 1,100 820 700
2 680 400 280
3 680 400 290
4 600 330 220
5 530 250 160
6 570 290 200
7 460 180 100
8 440 170 90
9 440 160 90
10 250 80 10
Total 5,750 3,080 2,140

Note : *TKL enjoys tax holiday for 8 years and 5 years at 50% of normal
tax rate under B.O.I. privileges.

2.3 Tin Mining

Currently, the Company uses contractors, operating their own dredges,
to conduct its offshore mining operations, but under the technical supervision
of THL`s staff and consultants. In years 2000 and 2001, THL received a fixed
income of Baht 575,000 per month plus a share of the tantalum (a byproduct in
tin smelting). For year 2002, THL`s income from tin and tantalum is based on
production and price levels at the international metals market.As of December
2002, THL`s net income from tin and tantalum was Baht 3.38 million, a decrease
of 34.75% from Baht 5.18 million compared to the year 2001.


3) Property development plans are on hold until the property market improves.

Currently, the property development market has shown signs of improvement.
The Company, therefore, is considering the development of its land on
Ratchadapisek Road in Bangkok as a hotel or service apartment facility, and
for which feasibility is still in progress.

In Debt Restructuring, THL has completed restructuring by converting
its short term liabilities into long term liabilities since July 2001. THL was
not obliged to undertake this action by any law or legality. The plan was
initiated in accordance with THL`s financial plan with details as follows:-

Banks Principal Outstanding Total Terms Grace Payment
(Baht) Interest (Baht) (years) Period Condition
(Baht) (years)
Financial 31,281,736 3,998,107 35,279,843 7 2 Monthly, Baht
Institution 1 0.60 million
each. Starting
April 2003

*Financial 6,832,633 1,121,537 7,954,170 7 2 Monthly, Baht
Institution 2 0.13 Million
each. Starting
June 2003

Financial 15,502,687 1,384,520 16,887,207 10 2 Monthly, Baht
Institution 3 0.25 Million
each in Year 3-7,
and Baht 0.28
million each in Year
8-10, Starting July
2003

Financial 10,000,000 - 10,000,000 102 2 Quarterly, Baht
Institution 4 0.25 Million
each in Year 3-5,
and Baht 0.35
million each in
Year6-10,
Starting March 2003
Total 63,617,056 6,504,164 70,121,220

Note : * Under Cholsin Limited, THL`s subsidiary.

The above restructuring plan results in the principal and outstanding interest
payments for each year in the future as follows:-
Year Principal and
Outstanding Interest
(Baht)
2546 8,050,477
2547 11,369,209
2548 11,497,030
2549 12,035,396
2550 12,185,177
2551 6,158,107
2552 3,940,074
2553 4,135,352
2554 750,398
Total 70,121,220

Thus, the above total debt restructuring is 56.18% of the Company`s
total liabilities of Baht 124.81 Million based on the Company`s financial
statement ended 31 December 2002. The Company`s shareholders` equity is
Baht 717.31 million with the total asset amounting to Baht 842.12 million.
The Company has a loss of Baht 19.44 million or Baht 0.05 per share.

In addition to the above , the Company is pleased to inform that the
major shareholder, namely, Paron Group of Companies, comprising of Paron
Resources Inc, Paron Holdings Limited and Sino Pac Investments (L) Limited,
holding a total shares of 81,738,070 has voluntarily declared that they will
observe a Silent Period for 6 (six)months, during which time there will be no
disposal of shares on the SET to the general public.

The Company hopes that through this measure that the Paron Group adopts will
ensure confidence among investors. The Paron Group has been a shareholder in
THL since 1988, and is a long-term investor. It has given substantial backing
to THL as a going concern especially during the turbulent financial crisis
experienced since 1997.

THL hereby submits the above information to the SET in its request for
approval to resume trading of its shares on the Exchange.

Sincerely yours,



(Ronald Ng Wai Choi)
Managing Director

[ThaiGuru]

*THL* hat heute am SET bei einem Umsatz von für Thailand gewaltigen 79`778`600 Aktien, mit 3,57% im Plus, auf 1.74 THB geschlossen.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

Der Gold Chart hat auch wieder die richtige Richtung eingeschlagen!

[bluemoons]

27.03. 14:52
Gold: Salomon Smith Barney skeptischer
(©GodmodeTrader - http://www.godmode-trader.de)



Die Analysten von Salomon Smith Barney äußern sich skeptisch dem Goldsektor gegenüber und gehen davon aus, dass der Goldpreis seine jüngste Konsolidierung auf eine Spanne zwischen $320-$340 ausweiten könnte, während das Aufwärtspotential der Fundamentaldaten als „begrenzt“ beschrieben wurde. Die Analysten stufen Barrick Gold von „Outperform“ auf „In-Line“ ab und senken das Kursziel von $20 auf $17. Zudem wird das Kursziel für Newmont Mining Corporation von $35 auf $30 und jenes für Placer Dome von $11 auf $10 gesenkt.
____________________________
ein gutes Zeichen?

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.reuters.com/locales/newsArticle.jsp?type=business…

27 Mar 2003 15:34

Gold Up on Fears of Lengthy War, Physical Buying

By Clare Black

LONDON (Reuters) - Gold firmed in Europe on Thursday as the U.S.-led war on Iraq entered its second week, with fears growing that the conflict could be longer and more costly in human and financial terms than most had imagined.

The safe-haven metal has benefited from renewed physical buying as consumers take advantage of a bout of lower prices around the $325 an ounce level -- some $60 off a recent 6-1/2 year high.

Gold buying in the world`s biggest consumer India is likely to rise in coming weeks as the marriage season peaks. Jewellers were also replenishing stocks, which had fallen in the past two months as war jitters pushed prices up and deterred buying.

Gold demand in India rises during the Hindu marriage season, which runs from January to May, as parents buy jewelry gifts for their daughters to keep as financial security in a crisis.

Spot gold was trading at $332.55/333.30 an ounce at 1512 GMT, up on New York`s close at $330.00/330.75.

Bullion was set or "fixed" in the London afternoon session at $332.75 an ounce, down from the morning fix of $333.15 as spot came off its session high of $334.

"Gold has fallen back to a level where physical demand is supporting the market, which is a good indication that the risk premium has mostly, if not entirely, left the market," said John Reade, precious metals analyst with UBS Warburg.

The price of the yellow metal has crept higher over the past two days as concern grows about the war in Iraq that U.S. President George W. Bush has said was "far from over."

Oil jumped, the dollar eased and European shares sank on Thursday as jittery investors swapped their money back into safe-havens such as gold and bonds.

"Gold is trying to take back some ground. I am looking for some gains today," a London bullion trader said, adding that he did not expect the metal to get much higher than $334.

Analysts expected gold to tread carefully, with participants unwilling to take on large positions amid much uncertainty concerning the outcome of the war.

"Short-term direction will be taken from the currency markets, while the longer term outlook for gold is uncertain and will remain so until the outcome of the current conflict is uncertain," Reade said.

The dollar weakened against major currencies on Thursday, ticking back toward its lowest levels since U.S.-led attacks against Iraq began eight days ago.

PALLADIUM STILL STRUGGLING

Battered palladium saw no respite from its weakness, hovering just $6 away from a recent 5-1/4 year low at $183. Spot was quoted at $192.00/202.00 an ounce, compared with the previous $192.50/197.50 New York close.

"Palladium is struggling as rising supplies from new mining projects and a sharp increase in reclaimed metal are likely to swamp the already saturated market," James Moore of TheBullionDesk.com said.

He predicted further losses if the metal, used mainly to clean car exhaust emissions, fell below $180 an ounce.

In other precious metals, silver chugged along in rangebound fashion, indicated at $4.40/42 versus New York`s previous $4.39/41.

Platinum fell further in a mainly technical move, dropping to $636.00/641.00 from $645.90/650.90, although analysts felt physical interest around this level should steady the fall.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2003/03/27/1048653809667.html

Investors can trade in real Gold Bullion

By James Chessell
March 28 2003

If only Gold Bullion had been around eight years ago, when gold bars valued at $5.3 million disappeared from Kerry Packer`s Park Street offices.

Bank on it ... the yellow bars held in London will be available for delivery.

If it had been, Australia`s richest man - who has confessed to having a "squirrel mentality" - might still have 10,000 ounces, or 283.5 kilograms, of the precious yellow metal stowed away for a rainy day.

Well, squirrels can now rest easy. In what is claimed to be a world first, investors will be able to own a direct interest in physical gold on the Australian Stock Exchange.

In a joint initiative with the World Gold Council, Gold Bullion will list its securities, each representing th of an ounce of gold, on the ASX.

The gold will be held in HSBC Bank of USA`s London vaults. The 400-ounce bars will even be available for delivery.


Gold Bullion`s chairman, Graham Tuckwell, said the offer "is effectively a securitisation of the highly liquid London gold bullion market. This means that the price should closely track that of spot gold".

Taking the $550 an ounce gold price, each security should trade at about $55. Gold bugs who buy the securities through their broker will be charged a management fee of 0.24 per cent a year.

The issue of new securities will cost investors an up-front fee of 0.1 per cent.

Mr Tuckwell, a former investment banker at Salomon Brothers and Credit Suisse First Boston, said the product was aimed at retail and institutional investors who wanted an alternative, and a buffer, to equities.

While gold has given investors little joy in recent years, Mr Tuckwell said uncertain and volatile markets made it a useful part of a balanced portfolio.

Non-executive director Vince Fitzgerald, chairman of the Allen Consulting Group, said the securities offered the superannuation fund a "little bit of insurance" as gold "generally moved in the opposite direction to other asset classes".

The offer is partly based on a PriceWaterhouseCoopers report which suggests that portfolios containing gold bullion are lower risk and reduce the possibility of "very negative return".

The gold bars will be listed with their security numbers on Gold Bullion`s web site.

The offer is also a first for the ASX, which has beaten a similar proposal by its US counterpart to the punch.

It is the first time that investors can buy a commodity outright on a stock exchange as opposed to a derivative product.

The securities will begin trading as `GOLD` on the ASX today.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.news24.com/News24/Finance/Economy/0,6119,2-8-25_1…

Gold industry needs discoveries

Johannesburg - The consolidation of the global gold mining industry has masked its stagnation over the past five years, and the industry now urgently needs to make new discoveries, Mark Bristow, chief executive of Randgold Resources, said in a statement on Thursday.

JSE Securities Exchange-listed Randgold & Exploration has a 48.2% stake in Randgold Resources, which is listed on the London and Nasdaq stock exchanges.

Bristow says the industry`s combined exploration expenditure peaked in 1997, and since then has dropped off sharply to less than a third of that level.

Over the same period, the number of active gold mining companies has shrunk by some 15%.

The new gold supply has grown by a mere 1.5% year-on-year since 1991, before making deductions for hedging.

"There has in effect been a steady decline in production, which has been masked by the frenzy of consolidation in the industry over the past few years."

"However, while consolidation can preserve or unlock existing value, the only way to create new value is through exploration, development and innovation. Quite simply, as an industry, we need to find more new viable gold mines," said Bristow.

Randgold Resources is one of the few gold companies that has continued to invest substantially in exploration - and as a result of this strategy, discovered the Morila deposit in Mali and developed it into one of the world`s top 10 gold mines, which in 2002 topped the million-ounce-per year production mark, the company said in a statement.

The company has also built up extensive ground holdings and an inventory of quality gold prospects and projects in Africa.

"It is easy but unwise for producers to allow themselves to be seduced by the whims and fashions of a market that is notoriously volatile."

"Randgold Resources` success in creating value and delivering returns, on the other hand, is based on a coherent, consistently applied strategy of generating organic growth opportunities through an aggressive exploration programme coupled with shrewd risk evaluation," Bristow said.

The western, central and eastern regions of Africa, where Randgold Resources has a major footprint, remains one of the world`s most attractive gold exploration areas.

Other high-potential zones, according to Bristow, are the western seaboard of South America, central Europe and, to the east, Indonesia and the Pacific Rim.

[ThaiGuru]

Gold und Silber Cabal schlägt heute wieder einmal mehr zu!

Gleiche Zeit, gleicher Ort, gegen den Tages Trend, und wieder kurz vor Handelsende. Die Börsen weltweit auf Talfahrt, Oelpreis hoch, Dollar wird gestützt. Da darf Gold natürlich nicht oben bleiben, und schon gar nicht über der charttechnisch wichtigen Marke von 332.50 Dollar pro Unze. Gold fällt flugs wieder 3 1/2 Dollar in 30 Minuten, auf 329.55 Dollar runter.

Tolle Leistung Herr Snow!

Umsonst war er bei seiner ersten Auslandsreise nach seiner Amtsübernahme als Finanzminister der USA, wohl nicht in London bei JP-Morgan zu besuch?

[ThaiGuru]

Nachdem der Gold Preis unter 330.- Dollar gedrückt wurde, werden über die Futures der DOW, Nasdaq hochgekauft, und schon folgen die Anleger. DOW, Nasdaq steigen steil nach oben. Dass die Deutschen da nicht nachstehen, ist ja naheliegend. Der DAX geht ebenfalls steil nach oben.

[Aktienwatcher]

@ThaiGuru

die Frage ist doch : wie lange werden amerikanische Institutionen diese Manipulationen noch durchführen können.

Der Krieg im Irak wird nun alles andere als ein Blitzkrieg werden und die Wirtschaftsdaten aus den USA deuten ein Desaster an ...... doch Gold fällt u. fällt.
Das Signal was damit den Märkten gegeben werden soll ist klar : Gold fällt = keine Krise in Sicht !

...aber genau das Gegenteil ist der Fall !

Kein Mensch weiß i.M. wie sich die weltpolitische Lage entwickeln wird ......Unsicherheit pur .... also ideale Bedingungen für ein Wertzuwachs beim Goldpreis doch der Preis fällt.

Die Schieflagen müssen so gigantisch sein das man nun mit brutaler Gewalt ( Manipulationen ) den Markt versucht rumzureißen.

Und genau da liegt die Frage : schaffen es die Bigboys sich am eigenen Schopf ( durch Manipulationen ) aus ihrem eigenen Sumpf herauszuziehen oder werden sie schon in kürze von der Realität eingeholt werden und anfangen ihre Verluste zu realisieren ( in so weit noch möglich )

Ich glaube sie werden es nicht schaffen da die Schieflagen zu gewaltig und die Fundamentaldaten zu schlecht sind .Daher habe ich mich mit Goldminen , Goldcalls und Eurocalls mit sehr langen Laufzeiten eingedeckt.

Für mich steht die USA vor dem wirtschaftlichen Zusammenbruch sobald ihre wertlosen Dollars die täglich nachgedruckt werden nicht mehr das Vertrauen genießen was z.Z. noch scheinbar vorhanden ist.

Der jetzige Krieg ist für mich ein klares Zeichen wie sehr man schon mit dem Rücken an der Wand steht und je mehr Länder sich für den Euro entscheiden um so mehr Kriege wird es wohl noch geben ( wenn man noch dazu in der Lage ist )

Ich habe Zeit und Geld und warte ab ...gebe aber zu das mich diese fast täglichen Manipulationen schon gewaltig nerven

Gruß
AW

[silvo]

zu 5222#

Klasse Beitrag, ich hab die gleiche Ansicht!!

[Aktienwatcher]

Bilder sagen manchmal mehr wie tausend Worte :

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.newsalert.com/bin/story?StoryId=CpOkfubWbvKeYmZi&…

March 27, 2003 14:02

Bema Gold Corporation - 2002 Year End Results
VANCOUVER, March 27 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ - Bema Gold Corporation ("Bema" or "the Company") is pleased to announce the results for the very successful year ended December 31, 2002. Highlights from 2002 are as follows:

- Production and gold revenue were the highest in company history
- Entered into a business combination agreement to more than double
projected annual gold production (completed in February, 2003)
- Converted $ 16 million of convertible debt to equity(x)
- Repaid Refugio Mine project debt
- Reduced Julietta Mine project debt
- Improved cash position
- Market capitalization increased from CDN$94 million to CDN$519
million(xx)
- Added to S&P/TSX composite index
- Best performing stock on S&P/TSX composite index for 2002(xxx)
- Commenced a drill program at the 50% owned Refugio Mine to increase
reserves
- Identified high grade gold resource at the Monument Bay property
- Acquired the Kupol high grade gold exploration property in Chukotka,
Russia

(x) All dollar values are expressed in US dollars unless otherwise
indicated.
(xx) January 1, 2002 - December 31, 2002
(xxx) National Post January 2, 2003

Gold Production and Revenue

Bema is pleased to report that 2002 was the most successful year of gold production in the Company`s history. Consolidated production for the year was 117,319 ounces of gold at operating cash costs of $121 per ounce and total cash costs of $159 per ounce compared to 73,430 ounces of gold at operating cash costs of $218 per ounce and total cash costs of $226 per ounce in 2001.

The Julietta Mine, located in far-east Russia, completed its first full year of commercial production in 2002 producing 108,844 ounces of gold at operating cash costs of $119 per ounce and total cash costs of $159 per ounce. Production from residual leaching in 2002 at the 50% owned Refugio Mine in Chile was 8,475 ounces of gold (Bema`s share) at operating cash costs of $151 per ounce and total cash costs of $158 per ounce. Gold revenue in 2002 was the highest ever generated by Bema at $36.3 million compared to $21.2 million in 2001.

In 2003, annual production is projected to increase from 116,000 ounces to over 270,000 ounces of gold as a result of the Company`s acquisition of the Petrex Mines in South Africa, which was completed on February 14, 2003. Petrex is projected to produce 155,000 ounces of gold in 2003 (from the completion date) following a six month ramp up, which is currently underway, at the mill. When the ramp up is complete, the ten year mine plan at Petrex is projecting approximately 200,000 ounces of gold production per year, bringing Bema`s consolidated projected production from Petrex and Julietta to over 300,000 ounces per year. Furthermore, based on excellent results from the current drill program at the Refugio Mine, the joint venture partners are discussing recommencing production in 2004 which would increase Bema`s projected annual production to approximately 400,000 ounces of gold.

Operating Earnings

Operating earnings improved significantly in 2002 to $9.2 million compared to an operating loss of $3.9 million in 2001. The improvement is due primarily to operating earnings from the Julietta Mine and in part to a gain of $4.2 million from a portion of the arbitration award with the Refugio Mine construction contractor.

The Company reported a net loss of $3.1 million or two cents per share in 2002 compared to a net loss of $11.3 million or seven cents per share in 2001. Cash flow from operations also improved substantially to $10.3 million in 2002 compared to cash used in operations of $138,000 in 2001. The improvement is due to a successful year of production at the Julietta Mine and partially from the arbitration award with the Refugio Mine construction contractor.

Debt Reduction

During the year $16 million of convertible debt was converted and the Company repaid the remaining Refugio project loan balance of $4 million. The Company also repaid a Refugio joint venture partner loan of $2.9 million which included accrued interest. The project loan at the Julietta Mine was reduced from $35 million to $29.4 million in 2002 and a further $5.6 million was paid on March 17, 2003 reducing the total remaining project loan at Julietta to $23.8 million. A further $5.6 million is scheduled to be paid in September, 2003.

Capital Resources

The Company`s cash position at year-end was $16.7 million. Bema`s current cash position is approximately $27 million.

2003 Exploration and Development

Bema has planned exploration programs on six projects during 2003, including over 145,000 metres of drilling. The Company will be drilling targets at the Julietta Mine; the Petrex Mines and the Refugio Mine as well as the Divisadero Property in El Salvador; the Monument Bay Property in Manitoba, Canada; and the Kupol gold and silver property located in north-eastern Russia.

A 25,000 metre drill program is underway at the Monument Bay Property where there is an inferred resource of 500,600 tonnes with an average grade of 18.3 grams per tonne containing approximately 300,000 ounces of gold. Early results from this drill program indicate the potential for a new high grade gold zone.

A further 26,000 metres of drilling is expected to begin in May at the high-grade Kupol gold and silver property. The Kupol property hosts a large epithermal gold and silver vein system that is up to 30 metres wide with significant values over a true width of up to 15 metres. The vein system has been defined by approximately 35 trenches over 3 kilometers of strike length with a width of up to 30 metres. Several high grade intercepts occur along an 1800 metre section including; 183.4 grams per tonne (g/t) gold and 2557.5 g/t silver over 11.8 metres in trench K-16 and 154.8 g/t gold and 548.8 g/t silver over 9 metres in trench K-34. The average grade from the trenching program over this 1800 metre section is 37.5 g/t gold and 325 g/t silver.

Drill results from the original Russian operator consist of 20 diamond drill holes (approximately 2500 metres) drilled along 400 metres of strike length within the zone to a maximum depth of 140 metres. Several holes returned high grade gold and silver intercepts including drill hole C-5 which reported 51.6 g/t gold and 530.9 g/t silver over 41.3 metres (true width 15 metres). Bema`s management believes that the Kupol property has the potential to host a multi-million ounce high grade gold and silver deposit that could be exploited by both open pit and underground mining.

Tom Garagan, V.P. Exploration, was the Qualified Person for the QAQC (quality assurance, quality control) program of duplicate samples, third party checks and blanks that was completed during Bema`s check sampling of the trenches.

Based on the results from 2002, Bema is uniquely positioned for growth in 2003 and beyond, through increased gold production and exploration. Over the last decade Bema has demonstrated an exceptional exploration track record and the ability to develop its assets to production.

On Behalf of BEMA GOLD CORPORATION

Clive T. Johnson

Chairman, C.E.O., & President

[ThaiGuru]

http://m1.mny.co.za/mgan.nsf/Current/85256C3300290CD485256CF…

Rand playing havoc with SA gold stocks

By: Tim Wood


Posted: 2003/03/27 Thu 09:00 EST | © Mineweb 1997-2003

[ThaiGuru]

http://m1.mny.co.za/MGFin.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D37A42256C…

SA miners break silence as shares tumble

By: David McKay & Lesetsa Matshekga


Posted: 2003/03/27 Thu 19:47 | © Mineweb 1997-2003


JOHANNESBURG - South African mining firms broke silence Thursday on government’s proposed revenue royalty system, known as the Money Bill, claiming the proposed legislation was discriminatory, ambiguous and sent “ a very negative message” to international investors. This followed a 11 and 14 percent decline in the gold and platinum indices respectively over the week.
Last Thursday (20 March), government outlined details of its Money Bill proposing a tax on gross revenue equal to 3 percent for the country’s gold mining companies; 4 percent for the platinum producers; and an 8 percent royalty for diamond producing companies. Since that day, Anglo American has shed 7 percent; Anglo Platinum lost 13 percent, and Impala Platinum was 16 percent weaker. Gold Fields (13 percent down), Harmony (down 11 percent) and Durban Roodepoort Deep (down 22 percent) were other victims.

Over the same period, the dollar price of gold was down 2 percent; platinum down 6 percent, and palladium lost 18 percent while the rand firmed just over three percent since the unveiling of the Money Bill.

Analysts said rand strength and metal price weakness had had an inevitable affect on the mining shares, but aspects of the Money Bill had worried also investors.

De Beers managing direction, Gary Ralfe, termed the bill as “discriminatory”, but added that he welcomed the broad terms of the legislation. “On initial scrutiny the proposed level of royalty on diamonds appears to be discriminatory when compared with other proposed royalty rates,” Ralfe said. “This concerns De Beers and the company looks forward to making representations to the appropriate Government departments,” he said. Mining companies have until April 18 to consider the Money Bill before making representations to Parliamentary portfolio committees.

Impala Platinum chief executive, Keith Rumble, said he had conveyed his company’s concerns “in the strongest terms to the National Treasury”. Impala Platinum’s main worry is that there is no provision in the proposed Money Bill for an exemption in terms of certain company’s existing royalty payments. Impala pays 22 percent on a portion of its total attributable income to the Bafokeng Nation, a North West province community. “We intend to address the ambiguity regarding potential double royalty payments in terms of the proposed bill,” Rumble said.

Other concerns was there was no phased in approach of royalties on new projects while the tax on gross revenue would potentially increase the cost of borrowing, particularly for new black economic empowerment entrants. There was also ambiguity on how the royalty system would be applied to platinum miners that derived revenue from toll-treatment of other company’s concentrate. Impala Platinum derived a third of its turnover in the six months to December from this activity through its Impala Refining Services.

Anglo Platinum executive chairman, Barry Davison, said his sector’s proposed 4 percent royalty on gross revenue was “a bit on the high side”. In an interview with Reuters, Davison said government’s proposed fiscal stabilisation provision sent a negative message to international investors. The fiscal stabilisation provision offers mining companies operating in South Africa the opportunity to guarantee the amount of their royalties over a 30 year on payment of a premium. The proposal has raised the prospect that the royalties are not fixed in stone and could be adjusted upwards by government. Davison said this was “not constructive at all”.

[ThaiGuru]

@Aktienwatcher

Erstmal ein Dankeschön für Deine aktive Beteiligung in diesem Gold Thread. Die User sind verständlicherweise in dieser für Gold Bugs "sauren Gurkenzeit" etwas zurückhaltend mit Postings geworden. Darum freut es um so mehr, wenn "neues Blut" für neuen Pep im Thread sorgt.

Zu Deiner gemachten Ansicht in Posting #5222

Ich befürchte, dass Du völlig Recht hast mit Deiner Ansicht der Dinge, und schätze auch Deine Vorgehensweise, bis auf einen wie mir scheint sehr wichtigen Punkt. Physisches Gold erwähnst Du nicht speziell. Besitzt Du wirklich noch kein physisches Gold, oder hast Du es nur vergessen aufzuführen?

Deine in #5224 gepostete Grafik, zeigt den Verschuldungsanstieg unter Bush in den USA ja auch ganz klar. Und jedem Leser sollte eigentlich klar sein, dass das zu einem Dollar Wertverfall führen muss. Gold ist in nicht Dollar Währung billig wie vor ca. 25 Jahren.
Das kann einfach nicht mehr lange so weitergehen.

Wirtschaftlich ist es ja auch nicht nur die USA die riesige Probleme hat, sondern auch die EU Länder, und in noch weit grösserem Ausmas Japan.

Gold muss, und wird steigen. Das sehe ich selbst, wie Du anscheinend auch. Da helfen auch Manipulationen nicht mehr lange.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[mickym [VIP]]

@Thai

Danke für die Bema-Info.

Gruss Mic

[ThaiGuru]

@mickym

Keine Ursache.

War eine tolle Meldung für BGO Besitzer, auch wenn`s der Aktienpreis "noch" nicht wiederspiegelt. Eigentlich unglaublich bei diesen super Zahlen.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.usagold.com

The Afternoon Gold Report...

by Jon Warner

March 27, 2003 (usagold.com)

New York spot gold settled lower at $328.20 an ounce down $1.50 an ounce from yesterday’s close. Spot prices were tethered to $330 an ounce, the closest major strike price for options holders. Gold will continue to find support around the $328-an-ounce level, as "weakness in the dollar, concerns that the war efforts will last longer and deter economic growth will be a main factor for investors to buy" at that level, said John Person, head financial analyst at Infinity Brokerage Services. Another factor that could erode the dollar: Further potential economic weakness may emerge as the war drags out, creating higher budget deficits, Person said. He said that under that scenario, "gold may be the favorite safe haven for short-term investors who need a liquid market to move financial holdings." Salomon Smith Barney analyst John Hill told clients Thursday that the "war premium" in gold prices has now been removed. Gold "has retraced its steps from $330 an ounce in early December to a six-year high above $380 in early February and back," he said in a research note.

London gold was fixed this afternoon at $332.75 an ounce, down from $333.15 an ounce at the morning fixing. "Gold is going to remain in a nervous state for the time being as the war in the Gulf continues to dominate the news, $330 remains a pivotal number at the moment as traders await the outcome of the war," said James Moore of TheBullionDesk.com in an overnight report. Frederic Panizzutti, analyst with Switzerland-based GoldAvenue said the market looked set to remain within a $320-340 range for the time being. "There is not much on the technical side. It is really being driven by other factors. The war is clearly leading the way in the stock markets, but it is very difficult to define what will happen the next day in terms of gold moves," he said. "The gold market is a bit lost here and I think most participants are reluctant to take a directional position here." Gold continues to trade in its by now familiar pattern, according to analyst Rhona O`Connell of the World Gold Council. "Physical investment from the grass roots is continuing to support the market, while the professionals are reluctant to commit themselves in either direction," she said. "Gold has fallen back to the level where physical demand is supporting the market, which is a good indication that the risk premium has mostly, if not entirely, left the market," John Reade of UBS Warburg said. "Short-term direction will be taken from the currency markets, while the longer term outlook for gold is uncertain and will remain so until the outcome of the current conflict is more certain," he added.

Earlier spot gold closed at $331.45 an ounce on Thursday in Hong Kong, up $2.20 an ounce from Wednesday`s close of $329.25. "The market is definitely a bit nervous...everyone is focused on the situation in the Middle East and we still have some options that will expire," said Leon Lee, dealing officer at the Bank of China in Hong Kong. Gold has become "a bit of a coalition performance indicator really," said a daily report from Westpac Banking Corp. News that India test-fired a nuclear-capable missile, followed by a missile test by Pakistan, also boosted gold, said Charles Dowsett, head of structuring and trading of precious metals at ABN Amro Australia Ltd. "Gold demand is bound to rise in April as marriage buying can`t be avoided," said Rajeev Popley, director of a leading jewellery firm, Popley Gold, adding consumers were comfortable with current prices and making big purchases. Gold demand in India rises during the Hindu marriage season, which runs from January to May, as parents buy jewellery as gifts to their daughters to stand as financial security in a crisis. "Consumers are quite comfortable with current prices, which have fallen drastically in the past two months," said Ranjit Rathod, a gold trader based in the southern city of Madras. "Gone are the days when prices hovered at $300 an ounce. I think $325-$335 should be a good price range for active buying now," said Prithvi Raj Kothari, a Bombay-based gold trader.

"The end of hostilities in Iraq will be replaced by tensions in the Korean peninsula, raising bullion demand in Asia in particular," David Thurtell, Sydney-based strategist with the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said in a commentary. He warned that the tensions involving North Korea -- which angered the United States when it revealed late last year it was still pursuing a nuclear program -- had not disappeared. "The commencement of Gulf War II has just pushed them to the background," Thurtell said in his commentary. "Asian investors will be buyers (of gold) once North Korea re-emerges as an issue," he said. For the longer term, from three to 12 months, Thurtell said a weaker U.S. dollar, ample liquidity in the monetary system and concerns about terrorism would likely maintain investor demand for gold. He said better economic growth and restored consumer confidence in the second half of 2003 should also assist jewelry demand. On the supply side, the prospect of sluggish mine output in the next few years would likely support the price of gold. Thurtell sees gold trading in a range of $315 to $400 over the next 12 months.

GEOPOLITICAL NEWS:

U.S. soldiers parachuted into the mountains of Kurdish-held north Iraq on Thursday, paving the way for a new front in the war to oust President Saddam Hussein. As the conflict entered its second week after tougher than expected Iraqi resistance so far, a U.S. defense official said: "This is the beginning of the northern front." Only 1,000 paratroopers have landed so far, but the U.S. military said they would support "a robust flow of follow-on forces."

U.S.-led forces have destroyed much of a column of Iraqi tanks and armored vehicles that attempted to move south from Iraq`s second city of Basra overnight, a British military official said on Thursday.

Some U.S. military officials are convinced the war in Iraq is likely to last for months and will require considerably more combat power than currently on hand in the country and in Kuwait, the Washington Post said on Wednesday. An article posted on the paper`s Web site quoted unnamed senior defense officials as saying bad weather, long and vulnerable supply lines and stiffer than expected Iraqi resistance prompted some U.S. generals to conduct a broad reassessment of military expectations and timelines.

U.S. defense officials on Thursday said Iraq may have executed U.S. prisoners of war, but said they were still gathering evidence to prove that claim. Marine Corps Gen. Peter Pace, vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff said " that Iraqis had committed an array of war crimes since the war began, including executing prisoners of war and storing weapons in schools. "They have executed prisoners of war. ... They have used women and children as human shields. And they have pretended to surrender and then opened fire on the forces to which they were supposedly surrendering," he said. "I`ve never seen anything like this. ... It`s disgusting," he said. British Prime Minister Tony Blair on Thursday said British soldiers fighting in the U.S.-led war in Iraq had been executed after their capture by Iraqi forces.

ECONOMIC NEWS:

The Labor Department said first-time claims, an early read on the resilience of the labor market, fell to 402,000 in the week ended March 22 from an upwardly revised 427,000 for the prior week -- below the forecast of Wall Street economists of 419,000. New claims fell to their lowest level since the week ended Feb. 8, when they measured 381,000. First-time applications for state unemployment insurance benefits held above the 400,000 watermark for the sixth straight week, the longest run since a six-week period from Aug. 24, 2002 to Sept. 28, 2002. Economists view the 400,000 level as the sign of a troubled labor market. The closely watched four-week moving average -- a more reliable barometer of employment market trends -- fell to 422,500 from 426,500 in the previous week, breaking a seven-week streak of increases.

The Help-Wanted Advertising Index, a barometer of the nation`s job market, edged down 1 point to 40 in February, from 41 in January, the Conference Board said. One year ago the index stood at 46. "There is little reason to expect much improvement in want-ad volume this spring and summer," said Ken Goldstein, an economist at the Conference Board. The Conference Board compiles its index by surveying help-wanted ad volume at 51 newspapers across the country each month.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago said on Thursday its National Activity Index turned negative again in February, dragged down by a weak labor market, after briefly turning positive in January. The index came in at -0.62 in February, the sixth negative reading in seven months, after an upwardly revised reading of +0.53 in January. "The main factor driving the decline was weakness in the employment-related data category, which made its largest negative contribution to the index since the fall of 2001," the Chicago Fed said in a statement.


Comment: Gold traded around the $330 and ounce level as expected due to the expiration of OTC options today. However, on the physical demand side there is strong support, as buyers appear when the price dips below the $330 an ounce level. Asian buying is strengthening once again, especially in India as the peak of “marriage season” gets underway. Precious metals remain supported by current physical buying and on a weakening stock market and a weakening US dollar longer term. Today there was a barrage of rumors as would be expected on options expiry. The rumors helped to push gold lower and the dollar higher. The rumors ranged from unknown gold producers’ selling forward, which is of course ridiculous due to low interest rates, to Saddam Hussein accepting exile in another Arab country. Notice how these rumors occur prior to the end of trading before the gold pits close before they are debunked. Another rumor that does make sense is that of Arab and Asian buyers moving out of U.S. and European investments and into physical gold and then either storing the gold in Switzerland or transferring the metal to their homelands.


- Jon H. Warner -


E-Mail the current report to a friend or to yourself.
__________________________
Jon Warner is a professional geologist with nearly 24 years in exploration and project development in both mining and petroleum. Mr. Warner brings to the table an impressive industry contact list, thorough knowledge of the precious metals and energy markets as well as a practical understanding of gold`s role in the private investment portfolio. His strong knowledge in these fields has been demonstrated at the USAGOLD Discussion Forum where he posts on a regular basis as Black Blade.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



We invite you to stay tuned to the gold market through our DISCUSSION FORUM
featuring round the clock gold news & commentary from the public.



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[Aktienwatcher]

@ThaiGuru

zu danken habe ja wohl ich der täglich von Deinen zahlreich zusammengestellten Infos rund ums Thema Gold profitieren kann . Danke dafür !
Zu deiner Frage : nein , ich habe kein Physisches Gold .
Der Grund ist aber ganz einfach : bin eher kurzfristig augagiert um die derzeitige Vola an den Börsen zu nutzen.
Da die Kriegszeiten aber nicht ganz einfach zu handeln sind und sich Gold für mich in einem klaren Bullenmarkt befindet habe ich mich für eine mittelfristige Callstrategie entschieden.
Minen kaufe ich erst seit ein paar Tagen ( insgesamt 4 Werte ) und bin nun in allen Werten bereits zu 2/3 investiert.
Die Eurocalls gefallen mir aber z.Z. am besten da der sich trotz Manipulationen sehr gut hält wie ich finde und damit ganz klar aufzeigt wie stark das Interesse am Euro gegen den Dollar i.M. ist.

Amiland steht für mich wie schon gesagt vor dem AUS und solche Meldungen :

HealthSouth brechen nach Bilanzskandal fast auf Null ein

Aktionäre fürchten zweites Enron - Möglicherweise seit
1986 keine verlässliche Bilanz mehr - SEC friert Vermögenswerte ein

sollten nur die Spitze vom Eisberg sein !!!

Die entscheidende Frage wird sein : wie lange hält das Vertrauen zum Dollar noch ?

Der Mittelabfluss aus den USA nimmt immer mehr zu daher haben wohl schon sehr viele begriffen welches Schauspiel uns die Amis seit vielen Jahren vorgespielt haben und versuchen nun still und heimlich das sinkende Schiff zu verlassen.( es gibt eben noch viel umzuschichten )
Sollte dieser Vorgang aber zur Massenbewegung werden wovon man schon in kürze ausgehen kann sehen wir ein Panik ungeahnten Ausmaßes .

Dann wird es richtig bitter für die Bilanzfälscher und Schönrechner aus dem Land der unbegrenzten Möglichkeiten.

Wo Gold dann stehen wird kann sich wohl jeder selbst ausrechnen aber ab wann dieser Prozess in Bewegung kommt weiß i.M. niemand außer der liebe Gott .

Wie gesagt: ..... ich kann warten

Gruß
AW

[ThaiGuru]

Bei INO.com wird zur Zeit ein Goldpreis von 339.80 (Last trade) !!!plus 8 Dollar!!! angegeben, und ein Bid 328.88 Ask 339.8 Dollar.

Hatten wir doch schon öfters, solche Diskrepanzen, wie wenn die "Quellen" des Daten Input für den Gold Charts nicht so "zuverlässig" sind wie man eigentlich annehmen könnte.

Eine frühere Anfrage von mir bei INO.com hatte ergeben, dass diese Gold Preis Angaben automatisch 24 Std. am Tag in den INO Chart einfliesen, und ganz sicher stimmen würden. Nur woher diese Angaben (Gold Preis Daten) stammen wusste der INO Direktor auch nicht genau. Vermutlich weiss die Quelle auch keiner der User im Board mit absoluter Sicherheit. Wenn doch bitte dringend um Belege, oder konkrete Informationen mit Quellenangabe, als Posting, per Bordmail, oder auch E-Mail: [e-mail]

Ich vermute schon lange, dass die Goldpreise, resp. die einfliessenden Daten für die Charts manchmal etwas "getürkt" werden.


http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO

Last trade 339.8 Change +8.00 (+2.41%)

Open 331.80 Previous Close 331.80

High 339.80 Low 328.60

Bid 328.88 Ask 339.8

Discuss with Traders Add XAUUSDO to my INO Portfolio


Last tick: Mar 27 2003 4:02PM ET
0-min delayed quote.

[ThaiGuru]

March 27 – Gold $328.20 down $1.50 – Silver $4.37 unchanged

The Broken Record

"I exhort you to take part in the great combat, which is the combat of life, and greater than every other earthly conflict."
-- Plato

The great combat for us is the one against The Gold Cartel. It is truly astounding that there could be anyone left in the gold world who follows the gold price action that does not understand that gold is all about a price rigging operation, instigated by a group of corrupt criminals in Washington and New York. To not get that after all these years can only indicate a severe degree of brain deadness, or partial lobotomy. How many times does gold need to come in $2 to $3 higher, only to be taken down in US trading, for the see no evils, hear no evils, speak no evils to wake up? Answer: till infinity. If they don’t get it by now, it ain’t going to happen.

The tip off for gold’s demise today was the gold share action. With gold up $2/$3 early on, the gold shares were taken down immediately. We have seen this sort of dichotomy over and over, either on a daily basis, or in the bigger picture. Inevitably, gold has followed the shares on down. Markets just don’t do that with such repetition and consistency unless a fix is in. A few times sure, but not all the time. It tells me the Working Group on Financial Markets has some following. They keep raking in the dough, while taking it out of your pocket. It’s sickening.

Gold was capped in the $355 area for many days. The Gold Cartel waited for their right moment and then slammed it down. It now appears they are doing all they can to keep gold from closing above $330/$332.50 in the US. Gold traded above $332.50 all morning in overseas trading. Predictably, it was then slammed in the US. It plays like a broken record.

Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley were BIG sellers all day long. Morgan Stanley was just cited for manipulating the energy markets during the crisis two summers ago.

The Comex open interest continues to plummet, falling 4949 contracts. The specs want out, many realizing you can’t beat the casino when the game is rigged. At the same time, the downside is limited because the physical market is on fire (see The Brimelow Report again). Thus, the shorts are covering positions put on much higher up to cap the gold rally.

The Gold Cartel alloweth, then taketh right back. Up $1.50 yesterday, down that much today. The gold trading action is beginning to feel like the days of yesteryore. What a grind!

The stock market trading action has become as predicable as that of gold. After last week’s big stock market rally all over the world, they are going in the tank again. They were mostly all weak again this morning going into the US trading hours. The DOW was quickly routed for more than 120 points. Magically, buying came into the futures pits and BAM, another turnaround. The key point here is that for many months, the Working Group on Financial Markets has made sure that a public share selling panic is not allowed to develop. ALWAYS, at key strategic technical or momentum points, our market comes back from the dead or dying, usually LATE in the day:

Market comment report passed on by Sarge in the morning:

Why do I feel a BIG rumor coming?? You look at spot (up $1.60??) and then look at the XAU (GAP-DOWN open!!) and see the DOW/DOG falling out of bed. Weird rally in the DX before the equities opened.

Wanna bet on what the rumor is today?? That may be a better way of making money. Maybe you can start a page on LeMet and get a RUMOR du jour BETTING POOL going. Everybody puts up a buck and picks their rumor. The one(s) that get it right snag the pool.

Then, later:

2:00PM: Buyers edge off the sidelines and send the major indices to new highs for the session... The equity market`s slow, but fairly steady, improvement in the afternoon session has been aided by respectable leadership in the biotech and defense sectors, and rumors of robust program buying across the indices... As a result, the S&P 500 crossed over into positive territory, although continued selling pressure in influential groups like retail and financial has pushed the index below the unchanged mark once again... –END-

The market fixers continue to win small battles and stave off defeat. Their demise is coming. Action such as this only works if the more powerful market forces bail out their rigging operations as time goes by. That is not happening. The gold fundamentals improve by the day. More favorable economic prospects needed to hold up the stock markets are going the other way. They are deteriorating.

This will end badly for the PPT and Gold Cartel.

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

Thursday March 27, 2003

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $12.21, PM $$9.98, with world gold at $331 and $332.85. Continuing far above normal import point. Several commentators have remarked on the strength of physical off take from the usual buying markets in the Middle East and South Asia: Reuters actually finds two Indian dealers to say, most uncharacteristically, that business is brisk:

"BOMBAY, March 27 (Reuters) - Gold buying in India, the world`s largest consumer of the yellow metal, is likely to rise in the coming weeks…. Jewellers were…replenishing stocks…"Gold demand is bound to rise in April as marriage buying can`t be avoided," said Rajeev Popley, director of a leading jewellery firm, Popley Gold, adding consumers were comfortable with current prices and making big purchases ".

The Far East is not really part of this process, but neither is it a seller: TOCOM managed the first up day (in yen) in a week, with the active contract rising 8 yen. Aggregate volume was low: only the equivalent of 16,985 Comex lots (22% below Wednesday); open interest edged down 379 Comex equivalent lots. Gold in $US was $331.35 at Japan’s close - $1.35 above the NY close.

Currently the contrast between TOCOM and Comex is unusually pronounced. TOCOM tends to keep prices steady, Comex usually sells off. TOCOM volume has dropped to a fraction of Comex (21,642 Comex equivalent on Wednesday versus Tuesday Comex volume of 57,665, 16,985 Comex equivalent today versus NY’s 63,869 yesterday: today’s NY volume today was estimated today at 1pm to be 58,000 of which only 8,041 were switches). Most interesting of all, open interest has started dropping precipitously in America, down 7,985 lots on Tuesday and Wednesday, compared to a net change on TOCOM of only -275 Comex equivalent. It appears there is an aggressive selling interest in NY.

Today in an almost perfect rerun of Monday: gold rose $4 from the NY close by the Indian afternoon, only to be smashed down by heavy Comex selling during the American day. Increasingly it looks as if UBS Warburg’s remark yesterday that gold would not progress above the $330 zone until the Iraq situation fades was well advised. However, as also noted yesterday, a great deal of physical will be needed to hold gold down here. The natural direction for gold from here is up. No wonder the Bundesbank’s Welteke has been deployed to insinuate that the Washington Accord may not be renewed: his last appearances were a feature of gold’s long battle to break through $320 last Fall.

In this very overwrought situation, with suspicions about the probity of the Authorities exceptionally widespread, it is heartening to see Bloomberg’s normally high quality columnist Caroline Baum rallying to the Colors with an article sneering at the idea of the existence of a Plunge Protection Team. Unfortunately it is a slovenly job, badly mis-stating the mechanisms suspected to score an easy hit. What is curious about this appearance is the contrast with her March 15 column , which happily explained the extremely peculiar Stock Market action of the previous day by asserting that mysterious buyers knew that a market-refreshing war would in fact happen.

JB

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

Dave Lewis

http://www.chaos-onomics.com/morn.htm

The gold shares continued their slide all day long and are close to breaking down. The HUI fell 2.55 to 114.35 and the XAU sank 1.70 to 62.27, even with Barrick closing higher on the drop.

The assault on gold and the shares is ferocious. Now that the world realizes the war is going to take much longer than first expected, the financial establishment realizes they are backed into a corner. A rising gold market could set off the derivatives financial weapons of mass destruction that Warren Buffet spoke off. Thus, The Gold Cartel will attack and attack until they lose control of their rig and are carried out on a stretcher.

What a shame we can’t send them to the front lines in Iraq, the creeps.

That said, it is no reason to run for the hills. The Gold Cartel could lose control at any time. Most everything else is going against them and they know it. Oil is back above $30 per barrel and the dollar’s upside looks VERY limited. Stock markets around the world remain on VERY shaky ground. Physical gold market demand is VERY firm.

Keep the Faith.


www.lemetropolecafe.com

[Biotechperle]

Hallo Thai Guru

da Du gestern die Bema-Zahlen hier im Thread gepostet hast,
(enthielten leider nichts neues,2 ct Verlust,im AH-Handel gings erst mal runter),hier noch eine etwas interessantere Meldung für uns Bema - Aktionäre:

Reuters
Placer eyes stalled Cerro Casale gold-copper project
Thursday March 27, 7:02 pm ET


SANTIAGO, Chile, March 27 (Reuters) - Canadian gold miner Placer Dome (Toronto:PDG.TO - News) said on Thursday it is studying ways to reactivate its Cerro Casale project in Chile, considered one of the world`s largest undeveloped gold and copper deposits.
ADVERTISEMENT


Placer, North America`s No. 3 gold company, had stalled the project due to poor metals prices. Now it says gold has reached a level where it would be feasible to develop Cerro Casale, but copper prices still lag.

"Basically, we need an improvement in the price of copper," said William Hayes, executive vice president of Placer Dome for the U.S. and Latin America.

"Now the price of gold is way up. Copper prices haven`t risen enough yet but we are reaching levels where the project could take on a more active role," he told reporters during a mining seminar in Santiago.

Hayes said initial capital outlay to develop Cerro Casale is $1.43 billion, too high to make it a feasible business at the moment unless its engineers can concoct a new mine design or implement new technologies.

"We have a team studying Cerro Casale again. We`re looking for ways to reduce costs," he said.

Placer has a 51 percent stake in Cerro Casale while Bema Gold Corp. (Toronto:BGO.TO - News) and Arizona Star (Vancouver:AZS.V - News) hold the remainder.

A feasibility study has already been done on the deposit, which holds gold reserves of 26 million ounces and copper reserves of 5 billion pounds (2.2 million tonnes). The mine would have a life of 20 years.

Environmental and water permits have also been secured, Hayes said.

"We have everything we need," he said.

Other gold projects previously seen as uneconomical because of weak gold prices are also due for renewed attention from Placer. The company foresees churning out 90,000 ounces of gold from its new Getchell mine in Nevada in 2003 and will speed up studies on its Pueblo Viejo project in the Dominican Republic.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rc/030327/minerals_chile_placer_1.html

Gruß
Bio

[Tippgeber1]

@all

Der Krieg wird länger dauern als viele denken.
Mit 300.000 Mann ein 25 Millionen Volk in die
Knie zu zwingen, wird nicht so schnell möglich
sein. Ich rechne mit mindestens 6 Monaten
Kriegsdauer, dass würde bedeuten, dass Öl
und Gold in den nächsten Wochen wieder extrem
steigen werden.

Wie sehen die anderen das?


LG

Tippgeber

[ThaiGuru]

Die Minenaktien steigen heute, schon mal stark!

Preisavancen bei den Minen von 4 bis 8 % und mehr.
Dem früheren Verhalten nach zu urteilen, geben die Aktien den zukünftigen Trend beim physischen Gold vor.

Also stehen die Chancen sehr gut, dass die Goldpreis Notierungen nächstens stark anziehen werden.

Oder andersrum gesagt, die Insider decken sich gerade wieder langsam mit Minenaktien ein, der Goldpreis wird dann nächste Woche wieder ansteigen.

Habt ihr Euch auch schon alle wieder eingedeckt?

Gold strong buy!

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[Hustensaftschmuggler]

Hallo Thai,

heute muss ich Dir wirklich Recht geben. Dieses Verhalten der Minen heute ist schon sehr "merkwürdig". Es sieht so aus, als ob sich das Big Money angesichts der geopolitischen "Krampflage" für "Plan B" entscheidet.

Wenn sich die Minen nicht wieder ruck zuck abverkaufen nach dem Monatswechsel wäre das mittelfristig für Gold ziemlich bullish.

[bluemoons]

Ein Gewinner: Der Goldpreis

von unserem Korrespondenten Eric Fry in New York

Ein Bombardement durch feindliche wirtschaftliche Daten hat die Kräfte der Wirtschaftserholung in die Bunker gejagt. Die US-Auftragseingänge für dauerhafte Güter fielen im Februar das dritte Mal in vier Monaten, und die Verkäufe neuer Häuser fielen auf das niedrigste Niveau seit über zwei Jahren.

Laut dem Handelsministerium fielen die Auftragseingänge für dauerhafte Güter insgesamt um 1,2 %, während die Auftragseingänge für nicht-defensive Güter ohne Flugzeuge sogar mehr als doppelt so stark fielen. Mit anderen Worten: Der private Sektor bleibt sehr zurückhaltend ... und potenzielle Hauskäufer warten ab.

Die Verkäufe neuer Häuser gingen im Februar um 8,1 % zurück, und das bestehende Angebot an neuen Häusern stieg auf ein 5-Monats-Hoch. Das ist das höchste Angebot an Häusern auf dem Markt seit 1996, was darauf hinweist, dass der US-Immobilienmarkt abkühlt. Vielleicht läuft es sogar auf eine Tiefkühlung hinaus.

Die meisten amerikanischen Ökonomen machen den Irakkrieg für die schleppende Performance der US-Wirtschaft verantwortlich. Vielleicht werden sie irgendwann entdecken, dass es für die Wirtschaftslage nicht gerade förderlich ist, wenn 75 Mrd. Dollar (oder vielleicht auch 175 Mrd. Dollar) dafür ausgegeben werden, dass Häuser in der irakischen Wüste in die Luft gepustet werden. Allerdings könnte dies für den Goldpreis förderlich sein.

In den Monaten vor Beginn des Irakkriegs schien es für viele Leute eine gute Idee zu sein, sich ein paar Goldbarren zuzulegen. Von Anfang Dezember bis Anfang Februar stieg der Goldpreis um rund 20 %, nur um diese Gewinne in den folgenden Wochen komplett wieder abzugeben.

Als die amerikanischen Kriegsvorbereitungen an Momentum gewannen und ein schneller amerikanischer Sieg wahrscheinlich schien, fiel der Goldpreis deutlich zurück. Zuerst wollte uns der US-Verteidigungsminister weismachen, dass die "Shock and Awe"-Kampagne das irakische Regime schneller stürzen würde, als man "Udai Hussein" sagen könnte. Aber zuletzt hat er seinen Ausblick revidiert, um nicht das Gesicht zu verlieren, falls die irakische Kampagne sogar ein paar Monate dauern würde. Angesichts der unsicheren Dauer und Schwere des Irakkriegs könnte das Gold bald wieder an Attraktivität gewinnen. In diesem Fall würden die Leute wieder gerne ein paar Goldbarren unter ihren Betten stapeln.

Und man sollte den US-Dollar nicht vergessen. Auch ohne den teuren Krieg im Irak würde der Dollar unter dem riesigen amerikanischen Leistungsbilanzdefizit leiden. Der Dollar ist seit Monaten auf dem Weg nach unten, und, wie jeder Goldanhänger weiß: Die Schwäche des Dollar ist die Stärke des Goldes.

Der Grund, warum man Gold haben sollte, ist nicht die Schlacht um Bagdad, sondern der angeschlagene US-Dollar. So John Hathaway, Manager des Tocqueville Gold Fund. Er ist der Ansicht, dass die ausländischen Investoren die riesigen US-Defizite nicht auf Dauer finanzieren werden. Und wenn sie sich von ihren US-Anlagen trennen wollen, dann wird der Dollar fallen, was den Goldpreis steigen lassen wird.

Mein Freund Jay Shartsis sagte mir am Mittwoch, dass die Goldminenaktien seiner Meinung nach vor einem deutlichen Anstieg stehen würden. Jay tradet seit Jahren erfolgreich mit Optionen, und gelegentlich schreibt er für eine Kolumne im Barron`s Magazin. Er sagte mir, dass die Leute verstärkt Put-Optionen auf Goldminenaktien kaufen. Das spiegelt seiner Meinung nach einen verbreiteten Pessimismus gegenüber diesen Titeln wider, was er als Kontra-Indikator auffasst und deshalb als Kaufsignal bewertet.

Normalerweise geht ein extremer Pessimismus einer starken Aufwärtsbewegung vor. Shartsis zeigte mir, dass die Umsätze mit Put-Optionen Ende Oktober 2002 ihr höchstes Niveau erreicht hatten – unmittelbar danach ging die Rally los. Und er sagte mir, dass besonders auf Newmont Mining sehr viele Put-Optionen gekauft würden – "so viele wie seit mehreren Jahren nicht mehr." Goldinvestoren, aufgepasst!


_____________________________________________________

Freitag, 28. März 2003

Gold, quo vadis?

von unserem Korrespondenten Bill Bonner

*** Der Goldpreis ist wieder über die Marke von 330 Dollar gestiegen. Ein schneller und leichter amerikanischer Sieg im Irak könnte den Goldpreis wieder absacken lassen ... denn die Investoren könnten militärische Stärke mit finanzieller Stärke verwechseln. Wahrscheinlicher ist es, dass das gelbe Metall einen relativ sicheren Boden gefunden hat und da eine Weile bleiben wird. Natürlich kann alles passieren. Viele Dinge können passieren ... aber nicht viele Dinge würden dazu führen, dass der Goldpreis deutlich absinken würde. Aber ziemlich viele Dinge würden dazu führen, dass der Goldpreis steigen würde.


investorverlag.de

[ThaiGuru]

@Tippgeber1

Sehe ich auch so. Die Amis haben sich anscheinend gewaltig verrechnet:

1. In der Menge der benötigten Mannen und Kampfgeräte.
2. In der Dauer die sie benötigen, um Irak zu kontrollieren. (Endgültig besiegen ist wohl nur Wunschdenken)
3. In der Empfangsfeundlichkeit, und der Unterstützung der USA durch Schiiten, und Kurden.

Eigentlich auch nicht verwunderlich, wenn man bedenkt wie die USA diese Volksgruppen 1991 ihrem Schicksal überlassen haben, als sie sich auf die Seite der USA im 1. Kuwait/Irak Krieg gegen Sadam erhoben haben, und von diesem nachher zu tausenden abgeschlachtet wurden, als sie von den Amis grösstenteils im Regen stehen gelassen wurden. Das ist bis heute zu Recht, wie ich glaube, nicht vergessen worden.

4. In den negativen Auswirkungen auf die Märkte (Trotz Interventionen)

5. In der Einschätzung der Reaktionen der übrigen Länder, auf den nicht UN abgesegneten Alleingang gegen den Irak. Vor allem aber durch die sich abzeichnende neuen Interessenssphären der Deutschen, Franzosen, Russen, etc.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[Wavetrader]

#5239: Goldindizes aktuell mit +7% intraday! Das ist selten!

[kaepntnemo]

hi @ll,
aus dem kitco forum moechte ich Euch 1 artikel vom user $20st vom 27.03.03 einkopieren, der die stimmung unserer transatlantischen freunde zur zeit treffend zu schildern scheint. (gruss an anglo).
die zustimmung im dortigen board ist uebrigens groesser als die ablehnung...
btw, was ich mich die ganze zeit frage: Wie soll nach der sch...sse, die gwb da angeruehrt hat, noch ein anderer president nachfolger werden koennen? Oder anders herum gefragt, wer wird der erste augustus des neuen imperiums werden?

$20st 27.03.2003
New Political Plan for America
I have a friend who is a constant reader of this forum,but is not a talker. In reading some of our posts he sent me this email that I think many will like, not all but many. By the way he is main stream upper class American. A master degree, Ceo of a fortune 500 company, well read,with excellent business and political contacts.I think this is very interesting that he ,and he claims the most in his running group, should be thinking like this.


OUR NEW POLICY


Here`s the plan:

1) The US will apologize to the world for our "interference" in their affairs, past &present. You know, Hitler, Mussolini and the rest of them `good old boys`. We will never "interfere" again.

2) We will withdraw our troops from all over the world, starting with Germany, South Korea and the Philippines. They don`t want us there. We would station troops at our borders. No more sneaking through holes in the fence.

3) All illegal aliens have 90 days to get their affairs together and leave. We`ll give them a free trip home. After 90 days the remainder will be gathered up and deported immediately, regardless of who or where they are. France would welcome them.

4) All future visitors will be thoroughly checked and limited to 90 days unless given a special permit. No one from a terrorist nation would be allowed in. If you don`t like it there, change it yourself, don`t hide here.
Asylum would not ever be available to anyone. We don`t need any more cab drivers.

5) No "students" over age 21. The older ones are the bombers. If they don`t attend classes, they get a "D" and it`s back home baby.

6) The US will make a strong effort to become self sufficient energy wise. This will include developing non polluting sources of energy but will require a temporary drilling of oil in the Alaskan wilderness. The caribou will have to cope for a while.

7) Offer Saudi Arabia and other oil producing countries $10 a barrel for their oil. If they don`t like it, we go someplace else.

8) If there is a famine or other natural catastrophe in the world, we will not "interfere". They can pray to Allah or whomever, for seeds, rain, cement or whatever they need. Besides, most of what we give them is stolen or given to the army. The people who need it most get very little, if any anyway.

9) Ship the UN Headquarters to an island some place. We don`t need the spies and fair weather friends here. Besides, it would make a good homeless shelter or lockup for illegal aliens.

10) All Americans must go to charm and beauty school. That way, no one can call us "Ugly Americans" any longer.

11) Read #9 One More Time.
---zitat ende

sehr skeptisch
-nemo-

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.usagold.com

The Afternoon Gold Report...

by Jon Warner

March 28, 2003 (usagold.com)

New York spot gold settled higher at $331.50 an ounce up $3.30 an ounce from yesterday’s close. Gold was supported by the continued softness in the U.S. dollar and weak flat stock markets while many gold dealers waited on the sidelines to watch for news headlines rather than engage in active trading. However, gold prices were further supported as some players sought to cover some recently established short positions ahead of the weekend. "We`ve had clear indications from the ground in Iraq that victory will not come swiftly to the U.S.-led coalition," said Alex Beuzelin, foreign exchange analyst at Ruesch International. "This war could become more of a drawn-out affair," he said. "That`s dollar-negative because it`s going to prolong the global uncertainty. We`ve seen the fog of war have adverse consequences for the U.S. economy." "No one is even looking at the data. It`s all Iraq, all the time," said Tim Mazanec, director at Investor`s Bank and Trust Company. "And any time there is a little scare, it`s not helping the dollar." Japanese monetary authorities are trembling in fear on concerns of a weak U.S. dollar and are desperately intervening in the markets to prop up the dollar and weaken the nearly worthless yen further. In Tokyo, market sources said Japanese monetary authorities had conducted dollar-buying intervention during London and New York trading hours in the past few days, continuing this year`s pattern of covert intervention.

Louis Paquette of Emerging Growth Stocks newsletter says: “on a very long-term basis, the production supply shortfall that is looming on the horizon may be even more serious than expected. Exploration spending has not yet recovered as much or as quickly as I was expecting it would, with only US$900 Million being spent last year compared with US$3.3 Billion in 1997. Alex Davidson, VP of exploration with Barrick Gold recently told an audience at the PDAC convention in Toronto: "The state of affairs in exploration spending is untenable for the health of the industry." And, "Big companies need to spend more on exploration, or else reserves will be depleted in 10 years." Now when we hear that kind of alarmist-sounding talk coming from a boiler room in Florida, or some newsletter publisher trying to sell subscriptions, of course we should take it with a great big grain of salt. But to hear an industry insider speak in such strong terms is something we take to heart. While this doesn’t help us much in the short term, it helps to confirm for me that the bull market for gold is not nearly over. Well before "reserves will be depleted" there would be a massive price squeeze as the masses figure this out.”

This falls in line with news of falling gold production worldwide. After several years of low gold prices and little exploration to replace reserves gold production has begun to decline. Gold production declined 5 percent last year in Nevada, the nation`s largest gold producer, but higher prices added value to the state`s $2.4 billion industry, state officials said Thursday. Nevada gold mines produced 7.731 million ounces of gold valued at $2.4 billion in 2002. That represented a 9 percent increase in value from the previous year as the average price per ounce rose from $271 to $310, the Nevada Division of Minerals said. Nevada ranks third in the world in gold production, behind South Africa and Australia.

London gold was fixed this afternoon at $330.75 an ounce, up from $330.30 an ounce at the morning fixing. "For the time being, the yellow metal appears to have found a level where supply meets demand," Standard Bank London said in a report. "An upturn in physical off-take is certainly helping to underpin the market on any dips, with rallies being capped above $334 by profit-taking from some disillusioned investors," it said. "Gold has fallen back to the level where physical demand is supporting the market, which is a good indication that the risk premium has mostly, if not entirely, left the market," UBS Warburg analyst John Reade told clients. Reade believes the short-term direction for gold will take its cue from the currency markets, while the longer-term outlook is "uncertain and will remain so" until the outcome of the Iraq conflict comes into focus. Analysts said persistent uncertainty about the war would keep the dollar in tight ranges for now with investors wary of taking large bets. "We have seen quite a bit of re-alignment of expectations. The market is taking a realistic view that the war will take longer than expected," said Michael Klawitter, senior currency strategist at Westdeutsche Landesbank in London. The dollar slipped against the euro on Friday as markets braced for a long and uncertain war against Iraq, but talk of yen-selling intervention by Japan held the greenback up versus the yen. "Gold is expected to continue trading in a 326-334 range over the early part of next week barring any major news on Iraq," said precious metals analysts at Dresdner Kleinwort. Dresdner Kleinwort said that like gold, silver seems "to have found a `sweet spot` where long liquidation of fund positions is meeting industrial buyers and perhaps a few investors taking a longer-term view on the metal."

Earlier spot gold closed at $330.45 an ounce on Friday in Hong Kong, down $1.00 from Thursday`s close of $331.45. "It is very difficult to say...we have the euro up one day and down the next, the Dow Jones is up one day and down the next. I think the market`s going nowhere," said Gordon Cheung, director of precious metals trading at Mitusi Bussan in Hong Kong. "The market is being squeezed sideways. I don`t see a breakthrough right now," Cheung added. "We saw a bit of squaring of some shorts put on overnight, but there wasn`t much else," Cheung said.

Foreign exchange market sources said the Japanese monetary authorities had conducted dollar-buying intervention during London and New York trading hours in the past few days, continuing this year`s pattern of covert intervention. "The authorities have been secretly conducting intervention, not in Tokyo trading hours, but in overseas markets through just a limited number of major Japanese banks," one source said. "They have been doing so to ensure dollar/yen stays above 120 yen at the year-end," the source said. "As long as the war is continuing, the dollar is very fragile, but with the intervention the dollar`s downtrend against the yen should be limited," said a Canadian bank dealer in Tokyo. "The intervention also shows that the Japanese government is desperate to make sure the dollar won`t fall ahead of the end of March," the dealer said. A weaker yen helps exporters by boosting the value of foreign sales, which would help the struggling domestic economy, hence the authorities` intervention. Japan`s top financial diplomat, Zembei Mizoguchi, repeated that it was important for the foreign exchange market to remain stable and that Japan was ready to act when needed. (Note: it is rumored that Japan has spent over 5 trillion yen this month in order to keep the yen weak against the weakening U.S. dollar)

GEOPOLITICAL NEWS:

U.S. troops used tanks, artillery and helicopters in a clash with an Iraqi force of about 1,500 men overnight near the town of Najaf in central Iraq, military sources said on Friday. The sources had no information on possible casualties in the fighting between the Iraqis and U.S. brigades, which are trying to advance north along the west bank of the Euphrates River toward Baghdad. Senior U.S. commanders said on Thursday they expect a decisive battle near Kerbala, a Shi`ite holy city about 31 miles north of Najaf, possibly within the next 48 to 72 hours. They said a full Iraqi brigade of around 6,000 men, including tanks, had taken up position around Kerbala. Some were from the Medina division of the Republican Guard, loyal to President Saddam Hussein, and others were regular army troops, they said.

Hundreds of jubilant Kurdish `peshmerga` fighters poured across what had, just hours before, been an Iraqi frontline on Friday, saying Iraqi forces had retreated toward the oil hub of Kirkuk. Oil-rich Kirkuk, 20 miles west of Chamchamal, is of huge strategic importance in the U.S.-led assault to overthrow Saddam, launched nine days ago. The advance followed increasing U.S. activity in the region in what is seen as the start of a new northern front. U.S. paratroopers landed in northern Iraq overnight, with Washington putting the force at 1,000-strong from the 173rd Airborne Brigade.

Two Iraqi sleeper cells planning attacks on U.S. interests have been arrested abroad, a Bush administration official said on Friday, saying one of the groups was taken into custody in the Gulf region. The official, who asked not to be identified, said the groups planned to use conventional explosives rather than chemical or biological weapons and said they had been arrested within the last two weeks.

U.S. troops in Afghanistan have launched a second major operation with an air assault on mountains in northeastern Afghanistan, a U.S. military official said on Friday.
"Operation Desert Lion" comes as hundreds of U.S. soldiers comb mountain caves and villages in the former Taliban stronghold of southern Kandahar in "Operation Valiant Strike," launched almost simultaneously with the Iraq war. Soldiers from the 505th Parachute Infantry Battalion began Desert Lion on Thursday and uncovered two weapons caches that included rockets and mortars, adding no arrests had been made.

ECONOMIC NEWS:

The University of Michigan`s final March index of consumer sentiment fell for a third straight month to 77.6, its lowest since September 1993, from 79.9 in February, market sources told Reuters on Friday. That was better than a mid-month reading of 75.0 and a 75.3 forecast by economists, perhaps helped by optimism after early successes of U.S.-led forces. But the erosion in confidence has taken its toll on spending, with retail sales, auto sales and even the robust housing market all showing signs of weakening. A persistent retrenchment by consumers would likely tip the economy back into recession. The current conditions index, which tracks consumers` attitudes about their present financial situation, fell to a final reading of 90.0 in March from 95.4 in February and a mid-month reading of 87.1. The expectations index, which gauges the 12-month outlook, fell to 69.6 from 69.9 in February but was above a mid-month reading of 67.2.

The Commerce Department said consumer spending was unchanged in February, for the second straight month, crimped by rising energy costs and nasty weather. Adjusted for inflation, spending fell a steep 0.4 percent. Spending on durable goods like cars, refrigerators and other items meant to last three years or more slumped 2.2 percent after a drastic 4.9 slide in January. "Job creation will need to revive to revitalize consumption growth. Hopefully that will occur when the war ends," said UBS Warburg chief economist Maury Harris. Economists are anxiously awaiting March jobs figures next Friday, and preliminary forecasts are for another decline after an alarming 308,000 drop in February.

Comment: Gold made gains before the weekend on safe-haven buying and a fall in the U.S. dollar to its lowest level vs. the euro since start of the 9 day-old Iraq war. Gold continues to be supported by a weak equities market, a war that appears to have slowed down from earlier expectations, and of course physical buying worldwide on price dips. On a curious note, gold got nudged higher at the start of trading in New York on what was assumed to be a terrorist threat as brokers and bankers headed to their offices in Manhattan. The Williamsburg Bridge was closed while police searched for a suspicious package and men seen climbing the bridge. But police later said the incident was an alcohol-induced prank and not terrorism. The so called “war premium” appears to have been completely blown off as weak speculators have left to create havoc elsewhere. The precious metals markets are now responding to a weak U.S. dollar and weak global economy with a wary eye cast toward events in the Middle East as a distracting influence. The U.S. dollar has not weakened as much as expected due to massive injections of support from increasingly desperate Japanese monetary authorities who wish to have the weaker currency to boost exports in a shrinking consumer market and to close out the quarter with the yen at 120 to the dollar. The question is how long they can continue to prop up a weakening dollar with such massive infusions of Japanese yen. It has been rumored that Japan has covertly spent over 5 trillion yen ($41.7 billion) this month in this dubious effort. Some have speculated that the total this month is double that amount. Japanese intervention has occurred in not only Asian trade but in London and New York as well. Obviously this cannot continue for much longer. Earlier this month a former Japanese monetary official at the behest of Japanese monetary authorities met with U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow and Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan earlier this month to discuss currency and market intervention. Regardless of this market intervention, when the U.S. dollar is allowed to float freely the price of gold will likely make substantial gains vs. the dollar.


- Jon H. Warner -


E-Mail the current report to a friend or to yourself.
__________________________
Jon Warner is a professional geologist with nearly 24 years in exploration and project development in both mining and petroleum. Mr. Warner brings to the table an impressive industry contact list, thorough knowledge of the precious metals and energy markets as well as a practical understanding of gold`s role in the private investment portfolio. His strong knowledge in these fields has been demonstrated at the USAGOLD Discussion Forum where he posts on a regular basis as Black Blade.



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[optim3]

moin thai guru

dachte bei euch ist es 6 std. später?

glaube es steht 99 gegen 1 daß heute der startschuß
gegeben wurde!

[ThaiGuru]

@optim3

Ja Du siehst das richtig, bin Dir 6 Stunden voraus. In 15 Minuten wird`s schon wieder hell hier.

Ab Sonntag bin ich Dir dann nur noch 5 Stunden voraus.

Der Startschuss für den nächsten Preis Schub 99%ig glaubst Du?

Gebe da noch einen Prozent Punkt mehr drauf!

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[optim3]

@thaiguru

wünsche dir viel glück und spaß in deinem "gelobten" land.

beim gold brache ich dir ja kein glück zu wünschen.

und jetzt:

ab in die federn!

[ThaiGuru]

March 28 – Gold $331.50 up $3.30 – Silver $4.41 up 4 cents

Gold Shares Hold Support, Then Go Bonkers!

"We hang the petty thieves and elect the big thieves to office"...Aesop from Aesop`s Fables

GO GATA!!

Gold held support right on cue and popped back up smartly, BUT the cabal worked overtime to keep gold from closing above pivotal $332.50. It has done a good deal of work below $330 and leaves a general impression that the market is SOLD OUT. Corroboration on that line of thinking is confirmed by the low bullish consensus numbers and the continuing contraction of Comex open interest. It fell another 3330 contracts Thursday to 174,688. That’s a 71,000+ reduction off its highs in early February.

The Gold Cartel has won all the battles the past seven weeks, but it appears the tide is shifting. A close above $332.50 will put a win in our column and maybe set the stage for the giant lasting move we have anticipated for so long. The fundamentals could not be any better than they are at present. Gold’s last move to $388 was labored all the way up due to gold police price capping. This time The Gold Cartel might not find it so easy. They have used up an awful lot of gold. I would look for a MUCH swifter move up once we get out of this basing area.

The physical market is so firm it is giving the cabal fits. Gold demand soars when it dips below $330. That’s why it doesn’t stay below that level for more than a day or two.

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/43

The big news of the day was the action of the gold shares. They soared. For a week I have exclaimed they are screaming buys and, for the first time since the Café opening 54 months ago, recently suggested that the gold shares ought to lead gold up. One day does not make the case, but today’s rock n’ roll action right from the get-go is VERY encouraging.

My shift to the notion the shares would lead gold higher is all a hunch. That hunch being The Gold Cartel folks would be the big buyers, knowing the jig was about up. The bullion houses are among the wealthiest firms in the world. They have a lot of money to throw around. The gold shares are so cheap now, my guess is they will be substantial buyers before The Gold Cartel throws in the bullion towel, as they run out of gold ammo to throw at the market. That may also be true if some of the rats leave the sinking ship and turn on their fellow gold riggers.

Why the change in thinking now, versus the last run-up? *It is more likely they are going to hit the wall when it comes to gold supply. *Then there are the deteriorating financial markets. It looks more and more likely that some of the bullion dealers in the cabal could go into capitulation mode.
* Shareholder fears of a gold bashing once the war started is subsiding.


The HUI (123.39, up a whopping 9.04) from Nick Laird’s web site:

http://www.sharelynx.net/Markets/Charts/HUIMA.htm

A HUI close above 125 ought to send the gold shares into orbit.

The XAU closed the day at 66.74, up a hefty 4.53.

The overseas gold market firms up day after day. One day gold will explode, just like the shares just did. It will probably come out of nowhere in overseas trading, just when we least expect it. I don’t mean $4/$5. I am talking $10 to $15.

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

Friday March 28 2003

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $9.23, PM $9.73, with world gold at $329.75 and $330.30. Continuing very high, far above normal legal import point, but a shade lower than yesterday even with a lower world gold price. This possibly reflects the ongoing adaptation of the overseas bullion trade to the mechanical obstacles – war, duty cuts discriminating against traditional bar sizes- which have arisen in the past few weeks. HSBC says:

"Very strong physical demand was seen overnight from India."

TOCOM gold continued sunk in gloom. Despite stressful War news, surging Oil, snarling from North Korea, and clear sign that the BOJ has been intervening to weaken the yen, volume shriveled again to the equivalent of only 15,696 Comex contracts 8% below yesterdays’ level, with the active contract up 1 yen and open interest static (up 115 Comex equivalent). Sustaining the yen level set on Thursday’s close meant that $US gold did edge up to $329.75, up $1.35 on the NY close.(NY traded an estimated 70,000 yesterday, a heavy 51,000 after adjusting completely for switches.)

Of course, Monday is the end of Japan’s Fiscal year, and Oil and Gasoline futures have been much livelier this week. But after two weeks of seeing sometimes quite dramatic Asian rises eradicated in the NY day, one suspects the Japanese speculative community has got the message: gold is being capped in New York.

Clearly, this is what the bullion bank commentators think. UBS Warburg observes:

"Gold continues to trade in a quiet and lacklustre manner, seemingly nailed to the $330 level, give or take a couple of dollars."

Standard London remarks of yesterday that there was:

"keen buying of the yellow metal during the European time zone, with good names noted amongst the buyers. The market stalled around the $334 level as good offers capped the advance…. An upturn in physical off-take is certainly helping to under pin the market on any dips, with rallies being capped above $334"

Investec notes:

"The OTC option expiry also saw no shocks but good selling later hit the market causing gold to grind lower…Swiss and light fund buying was seen into the London close but the selling interest continued into the [NY –JB] closing bell."

Hopefully adding:

"Month and quarter end pressure from the recently initiated futures based short positions may have been behind some orders."

Others suggest that the completion of the 1MM oz Telfer hedge by the antediluvian Australian miner Newcrest may alleviate pressure; of which there is no sign this morning.

Whatever the reason for this resolute selling it is running into physical offtake which increasingly looks like that seen at a major low. With measurable speculative positions run right down, an upwards adjustment looks increasingly likely.

JB

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

Indonesia May Drop Dollar for Euro in Oil Trade, Bisnis Reports

2003-03-27 20:27 (New York)

Jakarta, March 28 (Bloomberg) -- Indonesia`s state oil company Pertamina is considering dropping the dollar for the euro for its oil and gas trade, saying the euro promises smoother transactions, Bisnis Indonesia reported.
Problems have recently arisen for Pertamina in dealing with its trading partners in the Middle East. ``So, why not use euros?

We are thinking of that,`` the daily quoted Muchsin Bahar, Pertamina`s director for down-stream business, as saying.
Bahar did not give details of the problems. Nor did the report say if Pertamina`s move was related to the U.S. attack on Iraq.

Indonesia imports 300,000 barrels of crude oil a day from
Saudi Arabia and Kuwait via a terminal in Ras Tanura in the Persian Gulf, Pertamina spokesman Mohamad Harun said earlier.

(Bisnis Indonesia, 3-28, p1) {BSNS } for the newspaper`s Web site

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[kaepntnemo]

#5251
welche inseln moechten die denn durch die USA befreien lassen?

-nemo-

[Sovereign]

#5252

Indonesien ist die bevölkerungsreichste islamische Nation....interessante Entwicklung, oder?
Ach ja: Das vormehr zu Indonesien gehörende und nun unabhängige katholische Ost-Timor hat vermutete große Ölvorkommen und die netten USA sind mit den Australiern gerade dabei dort Basen einzurichten....
Sagen wir`s mal so: Indonesien hat noch ne Rechnung mit den Amis offen (wegen Ost-Timor)....Freeport McMoran hat übrigens gerade kürzlich bekanntgegeben, daß die Sitaution in deren riesige Grasbergmine (Kupfer- und Goldmine) in Indonesien ABSOLUT SICHER ist...LOL
Kleinere Übergriffe gabs da in der Vergangenheit schon...diese Minenaktie habe ich jedenfalls wohlweislich nicht im Depot...und ich werde sie mir auch nicht kaufen.

Gruß

Sovereign

P.S.: Preisfrage: Wie lange wird Bush noch Präsident der USA sein? Momentan würde ich nicht mehr auf ihn wetten.

[Basic]

Hoffe, wir haben mit unserer objektiven Einschätzung mit dazu beigetragen wenn er gehen muß

Gruß Basic

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.pennaluna.com/prospector.htm?news_item=341



29 March, 2003

Mining news update from the Idaho silver fields
Pennaluna Prospector Mining News Update -- Coeur d’Alene, Idaho -- March 29, 2003

About the time you’ve had it up to here with dictators, politicians, wars, and religious nuts, a gift appears that lifts up your sagging spirit.

There was just such a gift a few days ago. The Bulldogs of Gonzaga University, the little school by the river in Spokane, went head to head with the mighty basketball giants from the University of Arizona … and matched them basket for basket, rebound for rebound… all the way through regulation play… and then through two edge-of-your-seat overtimes.

The Zags lost at the buzzer when their final shot refused to fall. But they were wonderful in their loss. And the Wildcats were wonderful in their victory.

After the game, players and coaches from both teams showed more genuine class, sportsmanship, and mutual respect than Congress has displayed in two hundred years.

It was only a game, but it felt like a lot more.

So now, back to work. Here are a few recent mining developments from up our way.

** Stillwater Mining (NYSE:SWC) -- Struggling pgm producer Stillwater Mining recently received a new amendment to its credit agreement will may help it cut operating costs and go forward with the sale of majority interest to Russia’s Norilsk Nickel (subject to regulatory approval).

The amendment, which reportedly requires Stillwater to close the Norilsk deal by January 2, will give the company immediate access to over $17 million. Yesterday, Norilsk reported it had nominated five new directors to Stillwater’s nine-member Board.

The Columbia, Montana firm is the largest palladium producer outside Russia and South Africa. For months it has been hurt by production shortfalls, labor problems, safety issues, and controversy over the proposed sale. SWC fell from above $19 last March to a 52-week low of $2.20 in late February. It’s now $2.55.

** Kinross Gold (NYSE:KGC/TSE:K) -- In good news for economically hard hit north-east Washington, the Spokesman-Review recently reported that gold producer Kinross Gold would reopen its mill in Republic early next year. A new ore body found in the K 2 mine near Curlew sparks the move. The company expects the new K 2 deposit to last two or three years; in the meantime, it will explore for additional ore there.

The mill and mine were formerly owned by Echo Bay, which recently merged with Kinross. KGC is now number seven among world gold producers. The stock closed Friday at $5.89.

** New Jersey Mining (OTCBB:NJMC) -- New Jersey recently reported results of underground sampling at its gold mine up near Kellogg. The sampling uncovered high-grade gold on a raise between the Keyhole Level and the 2400 Level. One location assayed at 14.15 grams per tonne; other results were between 1 and 2 gpt. The firm says these results may show potential for high-grade gold shoots within the Coleman vein structure.

New Jersey also said it is continuing work on a seasonal operating permit for the Silver Strand gold and silver mine in the mountains near Coeur d’Alene. Headed by the father and son mining engineer team of Fred and Grant Brackebusch, NJMC has traded lately at around .35.

** Coeur d’Alene Mines (NYSE:CDE) -- CDE recently announced a company record in silver production for last quarter and for last year. It produced nearly 5 million ounces and 15 million ounces of the shiny metal in the respective periods.

The firm has slashed both debt and cash costs of production, but still posted losses of 44 cents a share for the quarter and $1.04 a share for the year. The stock closed Friday at $1.40, down from this year’s high of $2.08.

** Minera Andes (OTCBB:MNEAF/CDNX:MAI) -- Spokane-based Minera Andes reported yesterday that a new zone of high-grade gold and silver has been discovered at its San Jose project in southern Argentina. The find was made during reconnaissance core drilling by joint venture partner Mauricio Hochschild & Cia. Ltda, the big Peruvian mining firm. Minera says the new zone has geology similar to its promising Huevos Verdes system in the same area. MNEAF has been trading lately at a little under .20.

** Fischer-Watt Gold (OTCBB:FWGO) -- Fischer-Watt announced last month that it is continuing to work on a banking feasibility study for the Mercedes gold and silver property in Sonora, Mexico. It agreed to acquire the ground last fall.

It also said it has retained Howard Bronson & Company, a long-time financial public relations consulting firm, to help raise money for the Mercedes project, as well as for its La Balsa copper project, which is also in Mexico. Shares of the Coeur d’Alene-based firm have been trading lately at under a nickel.

** Atlas Mining (OTCBB:ALMI) -- Osburn-based Atlas said earlier this month that results from recent diamond drilling at its Dragon Mine down in Juab County, Utah, suggest halloysite clay deposits there may be larger than the 300,000 tons previously estimated. (Halloysite is a high-quality white clay prized for porcelain, bone and fine china, and certain specialized uses.)

Atlas says the halloysite property is presently its main interest, although it also owns silver and timber property in North Idaho, as well as an underground mining contracting business. Shares closed the week at .11.

* Formation Capital (TSE:FCO) -- Vancouver-based Formation Capital earlier this month reported it had raised over $600,000 in a private placement. It also said it has appointed Roman Friedrich III, an experienced investment banker, as a senior financial advisor. He’ll focus on finding debt financing to help advance the company’s Idaho Cobalt Project in central Idaho and to fund improvement of its Big Creek Hydrometallurgical Complex up in the Silver Valley. It bought the Complex last year from bankrupt Sunshine Mining.

With cobalt prices advancing recently to 21-month highs, stock of the company -- which aims to become the only integrated cobalt miner and chemical refiner in the United States -- closed the week on the Toronto Stock Exchange at CDN .19.

“All power corrupts, but we need the electricity.”
Unknown

Editor: Tom Wobker

[ThaiGuru]

3:30p ET Saturday, March 29, 2003

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Michael Kosares, proprietor of Centennial Precious Metals in Denver and its Internet site, USAGold.com, doesn`t write as often as he should, since there are no better observers of the gold market. So when Kosares writes, he shouldn`t be missed. His new commentary concludes that large speculators have gone long on gold. You can find it here:

http://www.usagold.com/AMK/MK-gold.html

Please pay special attention to the section headlined, "New Gold Market Dynamic Changes Game."

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

----------------------------------------------------

To subscribe to GATA`s dispatches, send an e-mail to:

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[ThaiGuru]

http://62.146.24.165/news.php?show=110164

28.03. 21:54

Viele Goldminenaktien unten den S&P Top Mover
(©GodmodeTrader - http://www.godmode-trader.de)

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.rockymountainnews.com/drmn/business/article/0,129…

Newmont profits pure gold
Q4 earnings four times that of 2001`s as prices skyrocket

By Heather Draper, Rocky Mountain News
March 29, 2003

Denver`s Newmont Mining Corp. on Friday reported it earned four times the fourth-quarter profits in 2002 that it did in 2001 because of skyrocketing gold prices late last year.

Newmont`s net income rose to $75 million, or 19 cents a share, from $18.4 million, or 10 cents a share, during the fourth quarter of 2001.

The company`s profits just beat analysts` estimates of 18 cents a share, according to a -Thomson First Call survey.

Gold prices rose 25 percent last year, the biggest gain in 23 years.

The world`s largest gold company also restated earnings for 1999 through 2001 after an audit by PricewaterhouseCoopers, hired last year to replace Arthur Anderson as the company`s accountant.

The restatement, primarily related to change in accounting for depreciation, resulted in an increase in earnings for the period of $17.3 million, said Newmont spokesman Doug Hock.

"It (the new accounting) didn`t really change things that much," he said.

"The bottom line is, we had a good quarter and a good year, and we expect that to continue going forward."

At the same time Newmont was reporting its results, some of its mineworkers were reporting back to work after a two-day strike at company mines in Nevada.

About 250 union workers at Newmont`s Carlin mines near Elko, Nev., walked off their jobs at 5 a.m. Wednesday, protesting "unfair labor practices," such as increases in health care co-payments and bonus changes.

Local 3 of the Operating Engineers Union represents about 960 hourly workers at Newmont`s Carlin operations, and they have been working without a contract since Sept. 30 last year.

The union ran an ad in the Elko Daily Free Press this week saying Newmont`s proposed contract would cost the company less than $5 million over the next three years.

The ad compares that with salaries of Newmont Chief Executive Wayne Murdy and five vice presidents, which combined top $5 million a year, the Elko paper reported.

Hock said Newmont`s offer is worth $17 million and that Newmont has been working for six months to reach an agreement with the union.

"We`re awaiting a response from the union," he said. "We hope the membership has a chance to vote on what we think is a very generous offer."

Regardless of any future pickets, Hock said Newmont`s mines will continue operating, as they did during the two-day strike.



Newmont

NEM: NYSE

$26.59

• $2.03





[e-mail] or [phone]. News wire services contributed to this report.

[ThaiGuru]

[ThaiGuru]

War Rally Euphoria







“S&P 500 Waterfall Imminent”
http://www.zealllc.com/2003/waterfall.htm

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/

Gold -- and the Dollar

Killing the "messenger"
Richard Russell

Dow Theory Letters

March 31, 2003

Extracted from the 28 March 2003 issue of Richard Russell`s Dow Theory Remarks

Gold -- and the Dollar -- I`ve been reading more and more about the possibility of gold manipulation. Nothing`s been proved yet, but I suspect that gold is being manipulated. The Fed`s money-manufacturing machine grinds out liquidity week after week.

Nobody, it seems, follows the money supply figures any more, but I do. I just received the figures for the most recent week, which was the week of March 17. For that week M-3, the broad measure of the money supply, was up $43.4 billion to a total of $8.59 trillion.

Consider this -- the worth of the entire gold industry, all its stocks, is estimated to be $90 billion. So in one week of dollar-manufacturing the Fed has "created" enough dollars to buy half of the entire gold industry. Does that make sense?

It`s obvious that the Fed doesn`t want the public to realize what an engine of inflation the Fed is. And there is no clearer signal that the Fed is pouring out Federal Reserve Notes (we mistakenly call them dollars) than rising gold.

Gold or real, tangible money will always compete with fiat or paper money -- therefore, all central banks have a vested interest in killing the "messenger." In other words, they don`t want gold to rally.

Time after time we`ve seen gold pushing up, only to be knocked down again.

An interesting puzzle -- last September 24, Gold closed at 328.80. On that same day the Dollar Index closed at 109.04. Today gold as I write is at 330, roughly at the same price it was last September 24. But today the Dollar Index is at 100.35, or about 9% lower than it was last September 24.

Doesn`t it stands to reason that with the dollar 9% lower than it was last September 24 that gold would be substantially higher than it was last September 24? What has happened to hold gold back? You tell me.

Looking at the June Dollar Index, it embarked on a long decline to a low of 98.36 struck on March 10. From there the Index rallied to a closing high of 102.45 on March 21. Today the Dollar Index stands at 100.61, just above its 50-day moving average which stands at 100.44.

The dollar, as I`ve stated many times recently, is the Achilles Heel of this market. So far, the Dollar Index has held up remarkably well in the face of all the projected horrendous US deficits and debts. We know that governments will "intervene" when they want their currency to be higher or lower.

[ThaiGuru]

Wünsche allen Lesern noch einen schönen Sonntag!

Aus geschäftlichen Gründen, kann ich zwischen heute, und Montag, oder evtl. sogar Mittwoch Nacht, nicht mehr posten.

Da zu erwarten ist, dass wir Gold Bugs eine freudige "Gold Woche" erleben werden, und es sicher sehr spannend wird ab Montag, ärgert mich meine Absenz vom Gold Geschehen um so mehr. Kann es aber leider nicht verschieben.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[bluemoons]

Rohstoffe
(31.03.2003)

Am Ölmarkt dürften Lieferausfälle in Nigeria durch steigende saudische und venezolanische Exporte ausgeglichen werden können, erklärt Credit Suisse First Boston.

Bei Öl deuten vorläufige Produktionsschätzungen für März darauf hin, dass die Opec die irakischen Lieferausfälle ausgeglichen hat, stellt Barclays Capital fest.

Der Ölpreis, gemessen am Sorten-Korb der Opec, kann im zweiten Quartal wegen saisonal bedingt sinkender Nachfrage unter die Marke von 22 $ je Barrel fallen, meint der Präsident des Kartells.

Am Goldmarkt ist die Nachfrage vielleicht doch nicht so rege, wie es bisher den Anschein hatte, erklärt Macquarie Research nach einer Analyse der neuesten Zahlen des World Gold Council.

Gold drückt mit seinen jüngsten Bewegungen aus, dass dort hinsichtlich des Ausgangs des Irak-Konflikts doch ein recht großer Optimismus herrscht, meint SocGen.

Die meisten Industriemetalle sind jetzt in Euro billig, erklärt SocGen.

An den Märkten für Industriemetalle kann die Schwäche noch bis ins zweite Quartal hinein andauern, erklärt Macquarie Research. Kaufbereitschaft werde jedoch möglicherweise bei Kupfer und Nickel auftauchen.

Die Nickelproduktion in China lag in den beiden ersten Monaten des Jahres nach amtlichen Angaben bei zusammen 11 598 Tonnen. Gegenüber dem Vergleichszeitraum 2002 bedeutet dies einen Rückgang um 3 %.

Der Silberverbrauch in Japan ist 2002 nach amtlichen Angaben um 12 % auf 3421,3 Tonnen gestiegen.

Zink war jüngst das Hauptopfer massiver Liquidationen der Fonds, berichtet Standard Bank. Bei fallenden Preisen sei Kaufinteresse des Handels aufgetreten.

Zinn ist nach dem Urteil von Barclays Capital ein Metall mit eher günstigen fundamentalen Bedingungen.

Der Kaffeeverbrauch in Japan hat 2002 nun schon vier Jahre lang ununterbrochen immer neue Rekorde erreicht, berichtet Sucden. Das Land ist inzwischen nach den USA und Deutschland der drittgrößte Importeur von Kaffee.
taurosweb.de

[NfDrag]

@bluemoons

dazu passt auch das



guckt euch die eindeckungen bei silber an

gruss drag

[Culogrande1]

Schon komisch...es liest fast keiner und es posted niemand...dabei sei Dr.Dr. Ritzi laut Frau Hornung in Urlaub.....

Culogrande...sach ich mal dazu

[ThaiGuru]

@Grossesarschloch1

Wenigstens bist Du diesem Tread als mein treuster Leser übrig geblieben.


Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

Bilder Rätsel!

Gold Chart:


Dollar Chart:

[ThaiGuru]

April 1 – Gold $335.30 down $1.60– Silver $4.42 down 2 cents

PPT Pulls Cruel April Fool’s Day Joke On Investment World

"War involves in its progress such a train of unforeseen and unsupposed circumstances that no human wisdom can calculate the end. It has but one thing certain, and that is to increase taxes." Thomas Paine

The PPT’s joke on the investing public this April Fool’s Day is that the US stock market is going up and that gold will never go up!

Today’s market commentary is a follow-up to yesterday’s MIDAS on the activities of The Working Group on Financial Markets. Their market interventions are becoming more obvious and more predictable by the day. On Monday, they kept gold from getting any traction on the upside and they kept panic selling from creeping into the US stock market.

To make their efforts pay off they needed to follow-up today. Overseas markets were relatively quiet and the war news was neutral. However, the cabal took gold down early going into US trading and made sure the stock futures were higher, doing what they could to set the tone for the day.

The early news out of Europe about consumer confidence was not good:

Brussels, March 31 (Bloomberg) -- Consumer confidence in the dozen nations using the euro fell to the lowest in more than nine years in March as the Iraq war discouraged companies from hiring, increasing the risk of the $7 trillion economy contracting.
A European Commission survey of 25,000 consumers showed a confidence index dropped to minus 21 from February`s minus 19. The index reached a low of minus 29 in August 1993 and a high of 3 in April 2000. –END-

At 10 EST time, even worse US economic news hit the tape:

Washington, April 1 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. manufacturing contracted in March for the first time in five months, an industry survey showed.
The Institute for Supply Management`s factory index last month fell to 46.2 from 50.5 in February, the lowest since November 2001. A reading less than 50 means business is contracting. The index had been higher than 50 since November.
Factories are pulling back as consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy, stalled in the months leading up to the war and confidence slumped to a nine-year low. That suggests the economy lost momentum at the end of the first quarter. –END-

Never fear, the PPT is here. Right on cue, they went into action. Gold rallied close to unchanged on the ISM news and stocks sold off. However, the S&P held that key 848 support almost to the penny, even as other indices sold off. Then, WHAM, the PPT simultaneously hit gold hard and sent a surge of buying into the stock futures pits to take the US market up.

Time and time again market observers see gold walloped exactly the same time the stock market surges. That would not continually occur in such a synchronized manner if the market moves were not carefully orchestrated.

These people are demented. To move into a market to prevent a crisis is one thing, to manipulate markets over and over again to maintain an illusion is another. The market managers are veritable sickos. They are setting up a move in gold that will be very damaging to the financial markets. At the same time, they are setting up a stock market plunge that will wipe out the hard-earned savings of many Americans.

Gold’s move lower today was pre-ordained. All one had to do, to understand that the George Orwell crowd was going all out to take gold down today, was to read the MIDAS last night and the Brimelow Report (below) earlier today. John reports on a strange 1,000 lot Access lot gold sale last night in Japan to halt the price advance.

Meanwhile, as word spreads all over that the gold price is rigged by a faction of the US Government, the Fed, and certain bullion banks, gold traders are fleeing the Comex. Open interest dropped another 3,027 contracts on yesterday’s rally. It now stands at only 171,267. With gold fundamentals as bullish as anyone could have ever imagined, or hoped for, fewer and fewer people want to place a bet on its upside potential. That makes sense for the moment. Why should investors donate their money to a bunch of crooks?

Gold is only a few dollars higher than it was last spring. The bad guys are all over it and going deeper in the gold hole to perpetuate their market fraud. Who knows how long they can keep this up? How much ammo do they have left? The good news is that physical demand is VERY firm and that fact has to be making their lives miserable.

All we can do is look for signs they are in trouble.

More bad economic news later in the day, spun to be a positive:

Detroit, April 1, (Bloomberg) -- General Motors Corp., Ford Motor Co. and DaimlerChrysler AG`s Chrysler said March U.S. auto sales fell less than analysts expected amid the war in Iraq, and Ford forecast a ``very strong April`` as buyers return from the sidelines.
General Motors, the world`s largest automaker, sold 387,786 cars and light trucks, a 3.3 percent decline from the year-earlier month. Ford fell 4.3 percent to 302,100 light vehicles, and Chrysler dropped 3.4 percent to 201,941. –END-

The PPT won their battle today. The DOW closed above psychologically key 8,000 at 8,069, up 77. The DOG barked its way up 7 to 1348, while the S&P finished at 858, up 10, well above the pivotal 848 technical key support point.

Look at the time this US story (one that implies market intervention) hit the tape:

Taylor: G7 Ready to Buffer Shocks
Filed at 1:56 a.m. ET

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. and key allies are prepared to take measures to protect their economies from external shock and could act quickly if they saw one coming, U.S. Treasury Undersecretary John Taylor said on Monday.

Taylor was asked during an interview whether there was a plan among the Group of Seven industrial countries for coordinated action in the event of a prolonged Iraqi conflict or a bad turn in the U.S.- and British-led war.

``The most relevant and accurate way to answer your question is that there is always a discussion about how to be ready, to have policies that are ready, when there is any kind of a shock to the economy,`` Taylor told Reuters.

He said there had been ``lots of discussion of more flexibility in economies`` among the G7 partners -- the United States, Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy and Japan -- but declined to specify whether any of it related directly to the Iraqi conflict.

Global financial markets have seesawed since the war began on March 20, with stocks rising and falling in company with twists and turns in the conflict and the U.S. dollar`s value suffering as hopes for a lightning victory faded. But they have not crumbled and energy prices have not shot higher, which has been heartening to policymakers.

A PHONE CALL AWAY

Taylor indicated the G7 partners were keeping close tabs on events, between their regularly scheduled meetings as well as during them, and would act if they had to.

``We`re always in close contact with each other...there`s lots of calls back and forth for all sorts of reasons and we would certainly be ready to talk and discuss about any kind of event,`` he said….

Taylor, a renowned academic economist before becoming Treasury`s point man on international affairs, has emerged as a survivor of the Bush administration`s housecleaning that swept former Treasury Secretary Paul O`Neill and White House economic adviser Larry Lindsey out of office in December.

LIKE A STRONG DOLLAR

In wide-ranging comments, Taylor said Treasury and Japan`s Finance Ministry were in close contact and said Tokyo`s repeated sales of its yen currency had no bearing on the longstanding U.S. support for a strong dollar.

Taylor noted that Treasury Secretary John Snow, who succeeded O`Neill in January, has put his backing behind a strong dollar and said the U.S. accepted Tokyo`s explanation that its main reason for repeatedly selling yen this year was to maintain orderly conditions in markets.

``There`s a good dialogue between the Japanese finance ministry and the Treasury and I`d say it`s one in which we were informed about what they`re doing and we will inform them about what we`re doing and there`s an exchange of views,`` Taylor said…

-END-



www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

Tuesday April 1 2003

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $7.55, PM $8.27, with world gold at $336.15 and $335. Well above legal import level. The Indian rupee made another import-facilitating 18 ½ month high today.

Gold surged on the TOCOM opening today, despite the initial headwind of a rising yen, cresting at $338.55 ($2.70 above the NY close). But then, as UBS Warburg reports:

"the metal …ran into resistance due to a large offer in the Comex Access system, reportedly 1000 lots (ie 100koz of gold) at about $338.90 spot. Gold then drifted lower through the rest of the session to hit a low around $335.75 where decent two way flows were noted".

or, in Investec’s more discreet formulation:

"Strong selling capped the move higher and led to profit taking and a retracement to the $335.50 level by the London open."

(This, it hardly needs to be said, is not the behavior of a proceeds-maximizing long.)

TOCOM then lost all vitality: on volume equivalent to only 16, 702 Comex lots (47% down on yesterday, the active contract slipped 9 yen, and $US gold went out 20c below the NY close, although open interest did rise the equivalent of 461 Comex contracts.(NY yesterday traded 28,437 contracts and open interest dropped rather sharply, by 3,027 lots.)

The usually tediously cocksure Leonard Kaplan of Prospector Asset Management has joined HSBC in, as noted yesterday, expressing puzzlement in the behavior of the CFTC data:

"I find these statistics puzzling, and somehow…not quite reflective of the trading conditions I witnessed during the week. I would have thought that the short commercials would have been significant buyers, as that would portray excellent physical demand for the yellow metal. And yet, it didn’t happen."

Other observers have expressed surprise that the Comex large specs, usually thought of as trend followers, are still net longs. Interestingly, despite the quietness of TOCOM lately, the abrupt liquidation in NY has brought Japanese open interest up to 76% of Comex’s by weight ( 130, 140 Comex equivalent v. 171,267). Japan continues worth watching.

The stimulating Russian website
http://www1.iraqwar.ru/index.php?lang=en&userlang=en
which appears to have access to Russian military resources, suggests today that while:

"Russian military analysts are advising the Iraqi military command against excessive optimism…. the Iraqi command is now in danger of underestimating the enemy…. The initiative in the war remains firmly in the hands of the coalition."

Nevertheless:

"Russian military analysts believe that the…duration of the war would be over 90 days …that during that time the coalition will sustain over 1,000 killed. Under such circumstances a serious political crisis in the US and in the world will be unavoidable"

One wonders how much of this is in the markets.

JB

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

BUSH`S TRUE REASONS

by Said Barbosa DIB, History Professor at the University of San Paulo, Brazil.

"... The American Government is in total despair with the imminent downfall of its economy. According to W. Clark, of the Indy Time, The Federal Reserve fears that OPEC may abandon, in its transactions, the dollar standard, adopting the euro instead. Iraq mad this change in November 2000, and though the euro kept its value, the dollar fell 15% in 2002..."

"A war with Iraq will force it back to the dollar standard, avoiding the risk of other petroleum producers adopting the euro..."

"This piece of information is kept well-guarded, because oil consuming countries would have to replace their dollars with euros, creating havoc with the American banks, forcing the dollar to crash, and devalue to a tenor of 20 to 40%..."

"The world financial power, subjugated to the dollar standard, is discredited and a failure - as demonstrated in most occidental countries - banks are falling apart mostly in the US and Japan. A total collapse is expected at any moment..."

"Occupation of the Middle East, even with the American monstrous national debt, would buy oil with artificially inflated dollars, the base of the American and occidental economies..."

"Sadam committed suicide at the end of 2000, when he decided to change to the euro, from that moment on, another war with Iraq became imperative. As we can see, it isn`t a question of national security, or getting rid of a despot and bringing democracy to Iraq, but assuring the international continuity of the dollar fallacy. This information is censored or kept out of the American press, not to create panic among investors and consumers..."

"A giant economic world earthquake is approaching..."

"Note that Germany, a staunch euro defender, is against the war, and England, which never adopted the euro, is pretty much in favor..."

"As usual, Exxon and British Petroleum will continue to dominate the world."

David S

Some of most prescient gold market commentary around continues to flow from Richard Russell (3/31):

Gold -- Gold gapped up today, but I continue to get the feeling that large interests are putting pressure on gold to halt any advance. This "secret pressure" has frightened buyers in gold and gold stocks -- you can sense this fear is the very tentative and fragile rise in the gold shares. As I write this morning, with gold up 4.50 Newmont, the gold leader, is actually down. It`s as though the gold stocks distrust any rise in the metal.

All of which provided investors with an excellent opportunity to buy the gold shares at what will some day be seen as bargain prices.

Ultimately, manipulation will fail in the face of the primary bull trend in gold. When it does fail, gold will act like a coiled spring that has been released. Until then, gold holders will have to be patient. As a matter of fact, what`s the hurry? Personally, I`m not in a hurry to see the destruction of the dollar. Which is what a second and third phase of the gold bull market will be discounting.

So my advice to "gold-bugs" is to be very patient. The US is heading into a period of unbelievably high deficits. The tell-tale signal of this administration`s fiscal insanity would be surging price for gold. To me it`s obvious that large interests don`t want gold to go anywhere.

Thus, it seems to me that gold and gold stocks will back-and-fill until the dam breaks. The current wall has been erected by the anti-gold element, better known as the central banks. But as sure as gold is real money, the dam that has been constructed against a higher gold price will crack. When that happens, gold will rise higher than anyone believes possible. Gold will be like the Dow when it was priced at 161 back in 1949.

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

http://www1.chinadaily.com.cn/news/cb/2003-04-02/110542.html

Gold market hurdles fall

(April 02,2003 )(China Daily)

The abolition of barriers affecting gold purchases and gold product processing and distribution on Monday has been hailed as a significant step by the government to liberalize the domestic gold market, following the establishment of the Shanghai Gold Exchange last year.

The removal of barriers will usher many more players into the market, which has been tightly controlled by the central government, said Roland Wang, a Beijing-based manager of the World Gold Council.

"The mounting market competition will bring sweeping changes to the industry," Wang told China Daily yesterday.

The People`s Bank of China, the nation`s central bank, on Monday announced that companies interested in purchasing, processing, wholesaling and retailing gold would no longer need approval from the official body.

Under previous regulations, any companies wanting to engage in these activities had to apply to the central bank for examination and approval.

"The abolition of this barrier is good news for gold product processors and dealers," said an executive of the Shanghai Gold Exchange.

Many processors and dealers are hoping to become members of the gold exchange, which was set up last November, according to an executive, who asked not to be named.

Currently, the gold exchange has 108 members limited to spot transactions.

With the launch of the exchange, the central government ceased purchasing gold directly from mining companies. Previously, domestic gold firms had to sell all of their gold to the central bank.

"We are very pleased with the abolition of the barrier," said Wang Zhixiao, executive vice-president of the China National Gold Corp, the State`s biggest gold mining company."

"The move will enable us to enter into gold product processing and distribution sectors," said Wang Zhixiao.

The company, a member of the Shanghai Gold Exchange, will spare no efforts to expand its interests, he said.

"Consumers will benefit a lot from the abolition of the barrier because categories and quality of gold products in China will be improved significantly as a result of increasing market competition,"[/i] said Roland Wang.

The categories and quality of gold products made in the Chinese mainland lag far behind those from overseas due to the government`s tight control of the market, according to Roland Wang.

Official statistics show China`s gold output stood at 189.8 tons last year.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.usagold.com

The Afternoon Gold Report...

by Jon Warner

April 2, 2003 (usagold.com)

New York spot gold settled lower at $329.40 an ounce down $4.90 an ounce from yesterday’s close. "That was some progress in Iraq, so we`re trading lower in a range," said a dealer at a precious metals trading firm. “Gold is likely to find continued support between $328-30 as many traders are still unconvinced of the short-war theory, while profit taking is set to keep $336 as the top of the range, keeping the yellow metal confined to a tight range until the success of the allies push towards Baghdad becomes clearer,” James Moore, an analyst at TheBullionDesk, said in a daily market report. "Gold looks to me like it had a bit of a premature breakout on Friday and it seems to have failed in face of this strength of the dollar, based on this alleged good news," said a metals broker. "It hasn`t really completed what I would view as the (move to) target area at $325-$320," he said. "The dollar is up nicely against the euro, the stock market is up pretty strongly, crude is down $1.31 (per barrel) and that`s why gold off," said Kevin Grady, vice president at Refco LLC on the COMEX floor. "They`re 20 miles outside Baghdad. When there is a resolution they`re looking for it to be bullish for the stock market, bearish for crude oil. I would be very cautious of that mentality -- I think the herd is going that way."

London gold was fixed this afternoon at $329.30 an ounce, down from $330.25 an ounce at the morning fixing. "Although the (gold) price briefly spiked above the recently established $325/35 trading range, it would appear as though the market needs to hear major news before it will make a decisive break through these trading parameters," said Standard Bank London in a daily report. ``Gold has remained under pressure in early London trading as the euro has lost further ground,`` John Reade, an analyst at UBS Warburg, said in a note to investors. "Speculators remain largely on the sidelines, however, and we do not see a move back up to recent highs unless the dollar weakens very sharply and/or some major negative geopolitical development were to occur," said Reade. "Clearly the fact that there seems to be progress towards Baghdad has seen U.S. equity markets considerably stronger today and the dollar -- hence gold has come under some pressure again," said Kamal Naqvi, precious metals analyst with Maquarie Investment Bank. "I still think that in terms of the medium-term trend, people are more rather than less worried about the implications for the global economy," Naqvi said. "But at the moment the war remains the key issue for all markets, rightly or wrongly." Traders said the market should attract renewed physical buying around $325.

Earlier spot gold closed at $332.15 an ounce on Wednesday in Hong Kong, down $3.45 an ounce from Tuesday`s close of $335.60. Gold took a hit early in Asia on rumors that Saddam Hussein had been killed. Gold was also hit as the U.S. dollar strengthened on gains in the ground war against Iraq and threats of massive currency intervention by Japan’s monetary authorities. The greenback was boosted by news that U.S. troops had encircled Kerbala, some 110 kilometers (68 miles) southwest of Baghdad, and comments from Finance Minister Masajuro Shiokawa that Japan was ready to back up warnings against currency volatility with action. Dealers said underlying wariness over yen-selling intervention by the Bank of Japan would support the greenback. "The dollar`s downside will be limited as the market is on alert for possible intervention," said a trader at a major Japanese bank. "There has been a bit of a reversal of sentiment...people now think the war may be going a bit easier, so the dollar is stronger and gold has come off," said Leon Lee, dealing officer at the Bank of China in Hong Kong. On Wednesday, U.S. forces accelerated their drive toward Baghdad, after securing the perimeter of the holy city of Kerbala which lies just 110 kilometres (70 miles) southwest of Baghdad, in three hours. U.S. troops reported that they had succeeded in taking a key bridge over the Tigris River in central Iraq after an encounter with Iraq`s elite Republican Guard. Following these reports, the main downward pressure on gold came from the U.S. dollar which climbed about 100 points against the Japanese yen during the morning and early afternoon sessions, Lee said.

The gold market was further liberalized in China this week. The People`s Bank of China, the nation`s central bank, on Monday announced that companies interested in purchasing, processing, wholesaling and retailing gold would no longer need approval from the official body. Under previous regulations, any companies wanting to engage in these activities had to apply to the central bank for examination and approval. "The abolition of this barrier is good news for gold product processors and dealers," said an executive of the Shanghai Gold Exchange. "Consumers will benefit a lot from the abolition of the barrier because categories and quality of gold products in China will be improved significantly as a result of increasing market competition," said Roland Wang.


GEOPOLITICAL NEWS:

U.S. forces accelerated their advance on Baghdad on Wednesday, launching coordinated attacks on two fronts against Republican Guard units defending the approaches to the Iraqi capital. U.S. Marines said they seized a bridge over the Tigris river in central Iraq, while further west the 3rd Infantry swept past the Shi`ite Muslim holy city of Kerbala and headed for the Euphrates river just 50 miles from Baghdad. In Baghdad, Iraqi forces have been preparing for urban warfare. Pick-up trucks equipped with machineguns and anti-aircraft guns are dotted across the city. Paramilitary and security forces armed with AK-47s and rocket propelled grenades are also on high alert for a ground assault on the capital.

A U.S. general said on Wednesday two of the Iraqi Republican Guard divisions defending Baghdad have been pounded by U.S. forces to the point that they are "no longer credible forces." Maj. Gen. Stanley McChrystal, vice director for operations for the U.S. military`s Joint Staff, also told a Pentagon briefing that the Iraqi military was reinforcing the battered elite Republican Guard forces south of Baghdad with troops from the Iraqi regular army. "I would say that the Medina and Baghdad divisions are no longer credible forces," McChrystal said.

U.S. Special Forces rescued a female U.S. Army soldier held captive for 10 days and recovered the bodies of two other soldiers in a midnight raid on an Iraqi hospital, officials said on Wednesday. The rescued soldier was identified as Private First Class Jessica Lynch, 19, from Palestine, West Virginia. She was with a maintenance convoy ambushed by Iraqi forces on March 23. Special Forces also found the bodies of two U.S. soldiers and eight Iraqis. He said the identities of the Americans were not known but they were thought to be among those ambushed with Lynch`s group last month.

The World Health Organization urged travelers on Wednesday to postpone visits to Hong Kong and China`s southern Guangdong province, where officials announced a sharply higher number of cases of a deadly flu-like virus. The rare travel warning from the world health body came after a jump in the global death toll with China, Canada and Thailand reporting more victims of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS). At least 75 have died worldwide and nearly 2,300 have been infected by the virus that is spread by air travelers.


ECONOMIC NEWS:

The Commerce Department said orders fell a larger-than-expected 1.5 percent to $321.16 billion in February, following a revised 1.7 percent increase in January. Orders for durable goods -- items such as cars and appliances meant to last three or more years -- fell 1.6 percent, a bigger fall than the previously reported 1.2 percent drop. Wall Street analysts had been anticipating a smaller drop in overall factory orders, with the average forecast in a survey calling for only a 0.6 percent decline. Orders in almost all major categories of manufactured goods were down. Non-durable orders were also down, falling 1.4 percent, their largest decline since February 2002, the department said.

Economic policymakers around the world are running out of tools to boost the flagging global economy, the World Bank said in a report on Wednesday. The bank said the U.S. Federal Reserve, the world`s most influential central bank, has little room left to cut interest rates and expects the Fed to leave them on hold this year if growth picks up slightly as expected. "A worrisome characteristic of the current economic environment is that macroeconomic policies may be running up against their limits," said the bank`s 2003 Global Development Finance report. In fact, policies this year and next are more likely to be less stimulative or "restrictive" than expansive, the bank concludes. The Iraq war is a major risk to the outlook and could knock off $75 billion to $100 billion from global economic growth in the first half of the year, the bank said. But without the war, the world economy is still in a soft spot.

Applications for mortgages in the United States plummeted 17 percent last week, a report said on Wednesday, as Iraq war news preoccupied Americans who might have otherwise bought homes or refinanced their home loans. The housing sector has provided crucial support for the economy since the Federal Reserve started cutting rates over two years ago to revive a flagging U.S. economy. The MBA said its weekly index of applications to refinance mortgages fell 20.3 percent last week to 6,484.6, its lowest level since the week ending Feb. 21, and the biggest drop in percentage terms since the week ending Nov. 26.

Comment: Gold came under pressure as the U.S dollar strengthened against the major world currencies and global equities markets surged as coalition forces in Iraq moved toward Baghdad, recent statements by the world’s central banks that the global economy is in danger of further weakness, and Ministry of Finance threats in Japan to prop up the U.S. dollar. The U.S. economy remains weak and the toughest battles for coalition forces lie ahead in the battle for Baghdad as the likelihood of chemical weapon use and urban street fighting increases as the forces inch toward the Iraqi capital. Yet the global equities markets surged on the belief that the end of the Saddam regime is near and all will be well soon and somehow the global economy will suddenly recover. All these events took attention away from the precious metals markets. Even so, no one is discussing how the bill will be paid when the war comes to a conclusion, an occupying army must remain in place to ensure security, and the ultimate costs of reconstruction. Meanwhile the U.S. current account deficit rises daily and everyone, government, corporations and consumers are mired under crushing debt. The question must be asked – is the U.S. dollar really that much stronger than other world currencies and what does that say about the other major currencies? This week’s economic data has been nothing to cheer about either. Manufacturing is on the decline and unemployment continues to rise. There are several other geopolitical hotspots around the globe from North Korea to the Middle East with Chechnya and India-Pakistan in between. Meanwhile the fundamental case for gold remains positive as production declines, exploration and development plans on hold until prices show improvement, and producers remain confident by unwinding forward sold positions (most recently Placer Dome Gold). The intermediate to long term picture looks stronger for precious metals.


- Jon H. Warner -


E-Mail the current report to a friend or to yourself.
__________________________
Jon Warner is a professional geologist with nearly 24 years in exploration and project development in both mining and petroleum. Mr. Warner brings to the table an impressive industry contact list, thorough knowledge of the precious metals and energy markets as well as a practical understanding of gold`s role in the private investment portfolio. His strong knowledge in these fields has been demonstrated at the USAGOLD Discussion Forum where he posts on a regular basis as Black Blade.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



We invite you to stay tuned to the gold market through our DISCUSSION FORUM
featuring round the clock gold news & commentary from the public.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[ThaiGuru]

April 2 – Gold $329.40 down $4.40 – Silver $4.41 down 4 cents

CONUNDRUM!

"Be patient and calm -- for no one can catch fish in anger." --Herbert Hoover

Have gone fishing at the local pub. No point spending much time on these rigged markets and I need to keep my blood pressure down.

I don`t know what emotions you have on a day-to-day basis, but I know mine, and I don`t like to feel like a Shiite Moslem beating myself with tire chains to atone for my misdeeds in life.

I write a column that focuses on gold and related markets. The purpose is to be of help to those that might be inclined to invest in gold. I write this column from the viewpoint that gold has been managed for many years by a bunch of crooks that are gradually taking America down the toilet.

The crooks won their battle today. They clearly capped gold the past few days, waited for their chance to kill it on any kind of good news on the war front, and promptly did so. The good news is that they were unable to do more harm to the price.

Are you happy with this crap? I am not because these criminals continually pick my pocket. At the same time, I heartily root for good war news for these special kids that were sent to fight for the elitist bullion-banking crowd. I love them and despise those that sent them – the ones rigging the markets and creating an American illusion. Therefore, the conundrum for me.

What is there to say about gold? The crooks capped gold the past few days as mentioned previously in MIDAS and waited for their chance to smash it down. Mission accomplished. Happy?

Former upside gaps were filled pretty much on schedule.

Both silver and gold are sitting on MAJOR LONG-TERM SUPPORT AREAS!!!!

I note that John Brimelow wrote the shortest report in memory. I have less to say than he does. Hail to the STALINIST-like US MARKETS!!!

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

Wednesday April 2, 2003

India was closed today apparently – Reuters provided neither gold prices nor FX rates.

Wednesday has been a Washington triumphalism day right from the start, with the dollar surging from early in the Asian day. This brought TOCOM gold under immediate pressure from the arbitrage activity of the Trade houses. The active contract closed down 10 yen, $US gold went out $1.75 below the NY close at $331.50 and volume jumped 67% to a still unimpressive 27,834 Comex equivalent. Open interest, however, only fell the equivalent of 436 Comex lots – Japan’s longs are tenacious. (NY yesterday traded 29,092 lots – open interest rose 292 contracts.)

As so often lately, volume on a down day in NY has been notably heavy – 33,000 estimated by 11 am, even though switching out of the April contract is virtually complete.

JB

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

[ThaiGuru]

For those of you who are reliant on Kitco for your PM prices there is an alternative:
http://www.gcitrading.com/resources.htm

Once at this site click on: http://www.gcitrading.com/gci_cfd_charts.htm

Do not go to the 2nd link w/o going to the first link first as it`s java driven.

You will find some excellent real time chart selections. You can open more than one chart simultaneously & have several time period selections.

[ThaiGuru]

Die Seuche geht ihren Weg!

Leider auch in meiner Wahlheimat Thailand.
Die Hotels leeren sich täglich mehr. Wirtschaftlich eine einzige Katastrophe für die Airline-, und Tourismusindustrie. Nicht nur in Thailand, sondern in ganz Asien. Die Börsen Asiens haben es heute trotz der "arangierten" Börsen Hausse in den USA und Europa schon mal etwas vorgezeigt.

Die ganze Wirkung dieser S.A.R.S Katastrophe dürfte aber erst in einigen Wochen ihre volle destruktive Wirkung auf die Börsen Europas entfalten. Bis dahin können die Unwissenden, und Fundamentaldaten Ignoranten ja noch etwas Börsen Rally spielen, und ihre Gold, und Silber Minen verscherbeln. Das Gold Cabal tut zur Zeit alles dafür, dass die unwissenden Investoren ihren Glauben an den Goldpreis Aufwärtstrend verlieren.

Dass im Gegensatz Gold Bugs, und Realisten die erkennen was heute aus den USA orchestriert, an den Goldhandelplätzen, an den Devisen Märkten, und den wichtigsten Börsen abläuft, weiter ihre Gold, und Gold Aktien Portefeuilles ausbauen, drängt sich einmal mehr geradezu auf. Wo das aus finanziellen Gründen nicht mehr möglich ist, sollte man sich leider noch einmal etwas in Geduld üben.

Gruss

ThaiGuru




3-04-03

Thailand turns back French warship from Singapore over SARS fears

BANGKOK, Thailand (AP) - Thailand has turned back a French warship en route from Singapore to prevent the spread of a mystery flu-like illness, officials said Thursday.

The ship, with a crew of about 500, was scheduled to make a rest stop in the resort town of Pattaya on Saturday, but Thai officials warned the French navy of strict public health measures against severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS.

"We have informed them (the French navy) that the Thai Public Health Ministry has issued a decree to quarantine visitors who come from the SARS-risk countries, and they understand,`` said Thai navy spokesman Rear Admiral Surasak Runrerngrom.

"They agreed to skip the stopover here.``

Singapore is among the places that have reported deaths from SARS.

At least 78 people have died of the disease worldwide and more than 1,800 have been sickened.

Most of the deaths have been in China and Hong Kong.

Thailand has detected 11 suspected SARS cases, and two of the patients have died.

More than 100 people have been quarantined.

Thailand`s Public Health Ministry said Wednesday that the country will turn back foreigners suspected of having SARS, and will force those allowed in from affected countries to wear surgical masks in public.

On Tuesday, Thailand ordered a 14-day stay-at-home quarantine for Thais (auch Ausländer!) returning from SARS-affected areas, warning that those who fail to observe the quarantine could be forced to stay in isolated former leprosy camps.

Violators also face six months in jail and a 10,000 baht (US$230) fine.

Also Thursday, more than 800 employees at Thailand`s National Science and Technology Center, or NECTEC, were told to stay home after two of four staff members who attended a recent meeting in Shanghai, China, developed fever.

The employees had returned to Thailand on March 23, but were quarantined only after authorities issued the order earlier this week.

"We are doing this to comply with the public health measures,`` NECTEC director general Thaweesak K. Anantakul said.

"The staff will resume work right after we disinfect the areas.``

Source: AP

PS:

Falls sich gerade jemand mit Reiseplänen nach Thailand befasst, noch kurz folgendes.

Falls auch nur bei einem einzigen Pasagier bei der Ankunft in Bangkok, bei der dortigen stattfindenden medizinischen Ankunfstkontrolle, der Verdacht besteht, es könnte sich um einen Fall von SARS handeln, werden sofort !! alle !! mitreisenden Passagiere entweder zurückgewiesen, evtl. in Quarantäne gesteckt, oder zumindestens für bis zu 14 Tage Zimmer Arrest im gebuchten Hotel verdonnert.

[Sovereign]

@Thai

Zu SARS: Ein Bürokollege von mir ist gerade dort unten in Urlaub: 2 Wochen Laos (was zum Teufel er da auch immer will), dann 2 Wochen Thailand....am 17.04. hat er wieder seinen ersten Arbeitstag in Deutschland...Was meinst Du: Ist bis dahin die Lage soweit eskaliert, daß erstmal alle Reisenden auf SARS untersucht werden, oder soll ich mir lieber ab dem 17.04. ein paar Tage frei nehmen um nicht mit einem potentiellen Seuchenüberträger zusammen zu hocken? Kein Witz, das meine ich ernst!

[Basic]

Interne Dienstanweisungen großer Firmen verbieten Ihren Mitarbeitern, innerhalb der Inkubationszeit nach Rückkehr aus Asien den Arbeitsplatz aufzusuchen. (14 Tage)

[Sovereign]

@Basic

So ein Rundschreiben ist mir leider noch nicht untergekommen obwohl es sich um ein DAX 30-Unternehmen handelt.
Mal sehen: Wenn sich bis zum 16. keine solche Maßnahme ergibt, oder die Leute gleich auf dem Flugplatz festgesetzt werden, dann nehm ich doch lieber am besagten Tag Urlaub...danach ist Ostern...5 Tage Inkubationszeit müsste doch eigentlich ausreichend sein???

[ThaiGuru]

@Sovereign

Dein Freund hat vermutlich noch Glück, weil Laos von den thailändischen Behörden (noch) nicht als SARS Gebiet genannt wird, und er demzufolge einigermasen problemlos in Thailand einreisen kann, wenn sich unter seinen Mitpassagieren nicht gerade dummerweise ein an einer Grippe erkrankter für die Behörden, theoretisch SARS Verdächtiger befindet.

Die Behörden Thailands verschärfen fast täglich die Masnahmen zur Bekämpfung der Seuche. Befürchte aber, dass alles trotdem nicht verhindern kann, dass sich die Seuche weiter ausbreiten wird, und in einigen Wochen gefährliche Ausmase annehmen könnte.

Dein Freund sollte seine Reise sicherheitshalber besser sofort abbrechen, und nach Deutschland zurückkehren.

In Thailand sind Mundschutz, und Gesichtschutz Utensilien komplet ausverkauft. Habe heute versucht meinen kleinen Bestand an Mundschutz bei zig Quellen zu erweitern. War jedoch fehlanzeige, war überall ausverkauft, und mit Nachschub scheit es zu happern.

Kennst Du zufälligerweise einen, oder mehrere börsennotierte Mund/Nasen/Gesicht Schutz hersteller?

Scheiss Virus, lieber Sovereign, der unser Leben auf den Kopf stellt, und viel gefährlicher zu sein scheint, als offiziell bekannt gegeben wird.

Dein Plan mit dem Urlaub ist wohl nicht das Schlechteste.

Einen kleinen Trost haben wir ja doch, es sterben an dieser Seuche "nur" etwas über 3% der Infizierten Personen. Falls das Gesundheitwesen wegen Ueberlastung zusammen brechen sollte, könnten es auch noch 5% oder 10% werden, doch die Menschheit wird daran nicht zu Grunde gehen. Die meisten infizierten Menschen werden SARS selbst ohne ärztliche Behandlung überstehen.

Nur der Weltwirtschaft könnte diese Seuche noch gewaltig mehr Schaden zufügen, als jetzt allgemein noch vermutet wird.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

PS: Seit heute gibt es auch noch eine Terrorwarnung zum bekannten thailändischen Wasser Fest Songkran, der von Extremisten gegen Touristen ausgeführt werden soll.

http://www.thaivisa.com/index.php?514&backPID=10&tt_news=240

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/russell/russell040303.html



China Accumulating Gold

Richard Russell
Dow Theory Letters
April 3, 2003

[ThaiGuru]

[urlhttp://www.usagold.com][/url]

The Afternoon Gold Report...

by Jon Warner

April 3, 2003 (usagold.com)

New York spot gold settled lower at $324.80 an ounce down $4.60 an ounce from yesterday’s close. ``If we win the war in short order, then gold could go down a bit more,`` said Thomas Au, who helps manage $43 billion at Times Square Capital Management, a Hartford, Connecticut-based subsidiary of Cigna Corp. ``The war is providing a distraction to the gold market, and the best thing that could happen is for the war to be over. That way, the focus would come back to the long- term fundamentals, which are a lower dollar, falling equity prices and a higher gold price.`` The dollar strengthened against the euro and yen today and stocks rallied in Europe and the U.S., contributing to today`s decline for gold. ``Gold is trading on the war and what`s happening in the other financial markets,`` said Domenick Nardo, a gold trader at FIC Commodities in New York. Gold prices are seeing pressure from "the decline in war tensions and a jubilation in equities," said John Person, head financial analyst at Infinity Brokerage Services. Looking ahead, Person said it`s important to remember that "the issues of account deficits, stability and economic growth in the US and abroad, plus the threat of terrorist retributions and a long drawn out urban war in the streets of Baghdad still face investors." Those uncertainties "will play a key element in the price direction for gold," he said. "The backdrop of positive progress on the war front is not giving the gold bulls as much leverage as the euro bulls," said Grady Garrett, chief trading strategist at EnergyTrendAlert.com, a commodity information provider.

We have read the reports and I have written about gold producers unwinding hedgebooks to take advantage of the long-term bull market in gold. Tim Wood of Mineweb writes: Newmont continues to make aggressive reductions to its hedge book, having slashed overall committed hedged ounces on its Australian book to 3.9 million ounces (121t) from 5.15 million ounces (160.2t) by late last month. Today, Placer Dome announced that it had reduced committed hedged ounces by 1.1 million ounces (34.2t) during the first quarter. Newmont, ranked number one by production and market capitalization, repurchased 804,000 committed ounces and delivered 449,000 committed ounces for the year. Newmont has 6.6 million ounces impacted by hedging, with committed ounces the waterline by which investors judge relative exposure. Barrick has the worst notional loss on its hedge book, reported at negative $639 million to end December 2002. The next worst loss was shown by AngloGold with negative $446 million, then Newmont with negative $433 million and Placer with negative $100 million. If the gold price does not average substantially more than it did last year, there are likely to be some retrospective recriminations about lost opportunities to hedge at the highs around $380 per ounce. However, nearly every gold company is confident that gold is indeed in a new “multi-year bull market” that will see much higher prices. As a result, it is understood that companies took advantage of the recent dip in the gold price to slough off hedges to take advantage of investor preference for greater exposure to the gold price.

London gold was fixed this afternoon at $323.70 an ounce, down from $324.70 an ounce at the morning fixing. "Rapid advances by US troops overnight have continued to keep gold under pressure over the course of the day," said James Moore at TheBulliondesk.com. "The persistent theme over the past 24 hours in the bullion market has been speculator-led selling," said Kevin Crisp, analyst at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein. Physical buyers remain on the sidelines by-and-large - in itself this is not surprising given the speed of the price decline, he added. "Iraq remains without doubt the key determinant; with gold buffeted in the backwash as each piece of conflict-news ripples across markets," he added. The drop below $325, which was the lower end of gold`s trading band over the past four months, stoked physical interest and producer buy-backs. "We had early this morning some, and it wasn`t massive, (Australian) producer buybacks at around $327.50," said Peter Hillyard of ANZ investment bank. But he said this would come as no surprise to the market as most producers had repeatedly announced their intention to buy back their hedges, or future production sold in forward markets. HSBC analyst Merlin Marr-Johnson said in his daily report that an estimated 15,000 ounces was bought from HSBC offices in the Middle East and India on Wednesday as buyers sought to profit from sharply lower prices. "The physical buying is there, but the fund selling is relentless, so it doesn`t really much matter how good the physical interest is," he said. "The funds are not holding excessive net long positions, with the risk-reward profile for gold versus the dollar looking extremely good going forward," one dealer said.

Earlier spot gold closed at $327.85 an ounce on Thursday in Hong Kong, $4.30 an ounce higher than Wednesday`s close of $332.15. "It is beyond my ability to forecast political events. I`m just following the news and making guesses," said Maxell Mak, analyst at Hing Fung Goldsmith and Refinery. "In the next 24 hours...$320 is going to provide great support," said Mak. "The only thing I think I want to say is that I`m confident that before the war ends, gold will hold above $320," Mak said. Technical analysis remains useful to some. "We are heading down to $320," said John Gajewski, technical strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, adding that the move would finish this corrective sequence down from the $360 level hit on February 25. "I think that we will reach that level in the next five trading days," Gajewski said. "The market`s viewing that the end of the war is getting closer as the allied troops are nearing Baghdad," said Martin Mayne, bullion dealer at NM Rothschilds & Sons (Australia) Ltd. "In the past few days, people have been moving out of the traditional safe- havens such as gold, treasurys and with the troops near Baghdad, again, people are pre-empting the end of the war," said Mayne. Gold will continue to gyrate to developments on the war front, with any news positive for the equities markets and U.S. dollar, such as the capture of Saddam Hussein, to be bad for gold. Any factor that could be detrimental to the U.S.-led forces, on the other hand, will help gold but Mayne said any rally is likely to be short-lived. "The market may be reluctant to sell gold too aggressively in the next few days as the possibility of Iraq using chemical weapons increases as the coalition troops approach Baghdad," NM Rothschild said in a daily report.

Richard Russell of Dow Theory Letters remarks: “To me it`s obvious that China has embarked on a national policy of accumulating gold both for both the government and for its citizens. And the lower the price of gold, the better China likes it. The men who are running China`s economy are not stupid, and China knows well the power of gold. I`ve said this before, and I`ll repeat it -- it would not surprise me to read some day that China has decided to back its currency, the renminbi, with gold. I believe that China, quietly, has adopted a long-term policy of competing with the US for super-power status, if not in the world, at the very least in Asia. It`s also clear that the battle, as China sees it and wants it, will be in terms of economic, not expensive military power. The US depends heavily on the reserve status of the dollar. How best to compete with the US? My answer -- compete on the basis of having the stronger currency. Right now the Chinese have pegged the renminbi to the dollar. They`ll keep it that way until they are ready to float the renminbi against all the world`s currencies. The float will come at a time of China`s choosing, despite the pressure from the rest of the world to float the renminbi now (since it`s conceded by everyone that the renminbi is now drastically undervalued).”

GEOPOLITICAL NEWS:

U.S. troops pushed to within six miles of the southern edge of Baghdad on Thursday, and were preparing to fight for control of the city`s airport, U.S. officials said. U.S. military sources in the area said that advance armored units of the U.S. 3rd Infantry Division had met little resistance as they continued their northward thrust toward the city`s outskirts.

An F/A-18C Hornet single-seat fighter bomber went down in Iraq just before midnight on Wednesday and U.S. forces continued intense efforts to find and rescue the pilot, U.S. defense officials said. "They are still conducting search and rescue operations," said one official. The Hornet was shot down over southern Iraq by a surface-to-air missile.

A U.S. Army Black Hawk helicopter was shot down south of Baghdad Wednesday, killing seven soldiers and wounding four, Pentagon officials said. Initial reports indicate that helicopter was downed by small-arms fire near Karbala, Pentagon officials said. The Euphrates River city was the site of fierce fighting between the Army`s 3rd Infantry Division and Iraqi troops, including Republican Guard forces.

U.S. warplanes launched heavy air strikes in support of Afghan forces battling suspected Taliban fighters in the southwest of the country, Afghan and U.S. officials said on Thursday. The U.S. military in Afghanistan said U.S. planes and helicopters had dropped a total of 35,000 pounds of ordnance on suspected Taliban positions in the Tor Ghar mountain area of Kandahar province, northeast of the town of Spin Boldak.

Israeli forces killed four Palestinians in a raid by tanks and helicopter gunships on a refugee camp in the southern Gaza Strip early on Thursday, witnesses and hospital officials said. In the West Bank city of Nablus, special forces also killed an Islamic militant, it said.

North Korea said on Thursday the United States was just paying lip-service to diplomacy in their standoff over Pyongyang`s suspected atomic arms plans and nuclear war was inevitable unless Washington changed its ways.

Philippine gunmen threw grenades at three mosques in the southern city of Davao on Thursday as police scoured debris around a food stall destroyed by a bomb that killed 16 people, officials said.

ECONOMIC NEWS:

First-time claims for state unemployment insurance benefits spiked 38,000 to 445,000 in the March 29 week, the largest one-week rise since an 86,000 jump in the Dec. 7, 2002 week, the Labor Department said. The number of new claims were at their highest since measuring 452,000 in the April 13, 2002 week and well above Wall Street economists` forecast for 410,000. "It`s clear that there`s a deterioration going on," said Robert Brusca, chief economist at Native America Securities in New York. "It`s a large move; we have a clear weakness in the economy." The total number of unemployed workers staying on jobless aid rose to 3.61 million during the week ended March 22 -- the latest week for which figures are available -- from 3.5 million the prior week.

The Institute for Supply Management said its index of non-manufacturing activity fell to 47.9 -- the lowest reading since October 2001, just after the Sept. 11 attacks -- from 53.9 in February. It was much worse than the 52.3 reading forecast by economists. Any figure below 50 signals contraction in the sector which includes everything from entertainment to tourism and banking. The pull-back in services is the latest sign of trouble for the economy that suffered from caution among businesses and consumers as the war approached. While most economists expect growth to take off on the completion of hostilities in Iraq, some are starting to wonder if the economy`s problems go beyond the uncertainty caused by war.

Comment: Gold was hit on fund selling as the Iraq War comes to a close and speculators attempt to front run the official announcement. The U.S. dollar and equities markets gained although economic data suggests a much weaker economy. Over the last few days I have been quietly hoping for the Iraq War to come to a quick conclusion so the weak short-term speculators would be shaken out and gold could continue its relentless long term climb to its true value on the weak U.S. dollar and grim global economy. The fundamental case for gold remains very strong as physical demand is supportive and gold producers (including all the largest) aggressively unwind forward sold positions in a belief that gold is in a multi-year bull market. As Richard Russell points out, China has liberalized the gold market and the Chinese central bank continues to quietly accumulate gold reserves. The U.S. economy and U.S. dollar suffers under rising massive debt loads, rising unemployment, and lower corporate earnings. All of which make an investment portfolio insurance position in precious metals all that much more important.


- Jon H. Warner -


E-Mail the current report to a friend or to yourself.
__________________________
Jon Warner is a professional geologist with nearly 24 years in exploration and project development in both mining and petroleum. Mr. Warner brings to the table an impressive industry contact list, thorough knowledge of the precious metals and energy markets as well as a practical understanding of gold`s role in the private investment portfolio. His strong knowledge in these fields has been demonstrated at the USAGOLD Discussion Forum where he posts on a regular basis as Black Blade.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



We invite you to stay tuned to the gold market through our DISCUSSION FORUM
featuring round the clock gold news & commentary from the public.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[ThaiGuru]

April 3 – Gold $324.80 down $4.60 – Silver $4.40 up 2 cents

INCOMING!

First they came for the Communists,
and I didn’t speak up,
because I wasn’t a Communist.
Then they came for the Jews,
and I didn’t speak up,
because I wasn’t a Jew.
Then they came for the Catholics,
and I didn’t speak up,
because I was a Protestant.
Then they came for me,
and by that time there was no one
left to speak up for me.

by Rev. Martin Niemöller

Baghdad here. At least, that`s how it feels the way The Gold Cartel is bombing the gold market. Throw out the fundamentals. They are meaningless. We are in a What Lola wants, Lola Gets kind of market. Lola is the PPT. A few days ago it appeared to me that gold was sold out. WRONG! The Gold Cartel was only taking a breather, waiting to stomp on it again. They must be petrified of the yellow metal to inflict such carnage when the fundamentals are so bullish.

Meanwhile, the stock market goes merrily on its way regardless of its bearish fundamentals. The latest in a streak of lousy economic news:

Washington, April 3 (Bloomberg) -- The number of U.S. workers filing new claims for state unemployment benefits rose to the highest in almost a year as companies followed through on planned job cuts in a struggling economy.

States received 445,000 applications for jobless benefits, up from 407,000 the prior week, the Labor Department said. For seven straight weeks, claims have exceeded 400,000, which is viewed by economists as a sign of weak employment conditions.

Washington, April 3 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. service industries contracted in March by the most since October 2001, the month after the terrorist attacks, as the buildup to war with Iraq cut into air travel and tourism, an industry report showed.

The Institute for Supply Management`s index for retail, financial services, construction and other non-manufacturing businesses fell to 47.9 last month from 53.9 in February. The median forecast of 49 economists polled by Bloomberg News was 52. Readings below 50 indicate deterioration. –END-

The stock market bulls point to the great stock market action in spite of the worsening economic news. "That’s the market acting sold out," many say. Propped up is more like it. The P/E ratio of the S&P 500 is around 30. In 1982, before the big run-up, the P/E ratio was 10 and few investors wanted anything to do with "the market." If the DOW was trading two-thirds lower from here, one could view the recent trading action as a market that was sold-out. But that’s not the case. When the major fighting stops, or becomes very subdued, look out below.

That was written this morning. The DOW made a U-turn late in the day closing at 8240, down 45, while the DOG couldn’t hold 1400 again. It finished at 1396. There has to be a good deal of concern out there in financial land about the tomorrow’s employment report.

Speculators continue to flee the rigged gold market in droves. The Comex open interest dropped another 1407 contracts to 170,151.

If there truly is a sold out market in financial land, it could be silver. It doesn’t want to follow gold down. Then again, it did not follow it up very much either.

www.lemetropolecafe.co

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

Thursday April 3, 2003

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $9.17, PM $9.09, with world gold at $327.15 and $325.25. Huge: way above normal legal import point. However anyone else feels about the current state of the gold market, shippers to India must be happy: HSBC reports:

"HSBC traders report seeing increasing levels of interest….resulting in a strong day. We estimate approximately 15,000oz was bought from HSBC offices in the Middle East and India yesterday, putting the day on a par with the good trading days last seen in October/November 2002."

In the last few years, this kind of report has denoted a market low.

Japanese longs this morning were confronted with disconcerting gold price news from New York and aggressive Trade house arbitrage selling (a function of the pressure on the offshore spot market): they wavered. On volume of 53,475 Comex equivalent, 92% above Wednesday’s, the active contract fell 18 yen and open interest dropped the equivalent of 2,363 Comex lots, the biggest fall for some time. $US gold fell $2.70 from the NY close. (NY yesterday traded 40,430 contracts; open interest fell 1,407 lots).

Generally, the more candid commentators were shaken by the ferocity of yesterday’s selling. Obviously motivated by the technically critical level of the upper $320s – moving averages, late 2001 uptrend line, etc. - it was relentless. As Investec puts it, yesterday:

"Gold opened in London at $332 with selling immediately putting the price on the back foot……significant flows on the sell side…sent gold to $329.00. Quality buying at this level managed to catch the trade short…but the weight on the supply side was too heavy for the market to absorb…. Trade Buying on the [NY] open was hit by heavier fund related selling…gold ran into solid bids…ahead of the key long term trendline from Q4 01 levels ($ gold). Consistent selling could not break this level…(but) …Bank selling of futures led to a $330.00 close…Fund selling on the break of support levels dominated the session."

And today:

"Overnight Japanese related selling and possibly further fund selling…led to gold being given under $327"

From a technical point of view, of course, gold is now in a parlous condition, exactly as many of the sellers must have anticipated. Yet, as remarked above, the key physical buying markets are behaving as if gold is in the bargain basement, and it must also be said that gold shares are exhibiting no signs of panic.

The question is, is this selling entirely opportunistic predator fund activity, in which case it is likely to be thrown back in short order, or is there a Central Bank in action? And if the latter, is there a purpose beyond grooming markets while the war is going on?

This raises the question generally confronting America’s financial markets: what are they going to do for an encore?

JB

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

Here is the latest REPO Totals chart for your review.



It reveals a $14.75 Billion injection of temporary open market operations today [4/3/2003] by the Federal Reserve. Doubtless this large amount was deemed necessary to off-set today`s huge $16.5 Billion expiration that I mentioned yesterday.

The net effect of an increasing REPO Totals pool was a big rally yesterday. Today we are flat as the REPO totals pool remains a bit down-now at $27.5 Billion.

This simplistic chart ignores permanent Fed OMOs which one lucid café member has pointed out carry nine times the effective weight as TOMOs. Even without the permanent data, we can see a nice correlation between DOW activity and REPO totals levels.

One can speculate if these funds are being consumed in the currency war between the dollar and the Euro. Volatility has increased in the intra-day traces of the big three currencies with the yen, Euro and Dollar swinging wide arcs.

Finally, I urge all café readers to obtain Bill Buckler`s latest commentary via direct subscription [As you have recently quoted]. It contains war-related macroeconomic insights of remarkable clarity that will serve to reassure any nervous gold bug.

Best, Mike

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[matthiasch]

Hallo Thai!

Bräuchte mal ne kurze Einschätzung zu Lihir Gold.

Danke

[ThaiGuru]

@matthiasch

Neueste Informationen zu Lihir findest Du mittels untenstehendem Link.

http://www.finanznachrichten.de/suche/suchergebnis.asp?words…

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.swissinfo.org/sde/Swissinfo.html?siteSect=143&sid…

Freitag 04.04.2003

Wieder Artilleriegefechte zwischen Atommächten Indien und Pakistan

NEU DELHI - Die Atommächte Indien und Pakistan haben sich an der Waffenstillstandslinie zwischen Indien und Kaschmir erneut Artilleriegefechte geliefert. Indien beschuldigte Pakistan am Freitag, auch auf Gebiete mit Zivilisten gezielt zu haben.

Auf indischer Seite sei ein Soldat getötet worden. Das berichtete die indische Nachrichtenagentur UNI. Indien und Pakistan haben seit 1947 drei Kriege gegeneinander geführt, zwei davon um das geteilte Kaschmir. Im vergangenen Jahr war es nach Terroranschlägen in Indien zwei Mal fast zu einem Krieg gekommen. 041530 apr


SDA-ATS

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.swissinfo.org/sde/Swissinfo.html?siteSect=143&sid…

Freitag 04.04.2003

US-Diplomaten verlassen China wegen SARS-Ansteckungsgefahr

BERN - Aus Angst vor der Lungenentzündung SARS lassen die USA Angehörige ihrer Botschaft aus China ausreisen. Allen Familienmitgliedern und nicht unbedingt benötigten Diplomaten werden laut Aussenministerium Gratis-Flüge aus China angeboten.

Japan weitete seine Reisewarnungen aus. Nicht nur das besonders betroffene Hongkong und die südchinesische Provinz Guangdong sollten gemieden werden, sondern unter anderem auch das kanadische Toronto, Singapur und die vietnamesische Hauptstadt Hanoi. Mehr als 2500 Einwohner Torontos sind in Quarantäne.

Unter Protest zogen sich die Aussteller aus Hongkong am Donnerstagabend von der Uhren- und Schmuckmesse «Baselworld» zurück. Das Bundesamt für Gesundheit (BAG) hatte zuvor den Ausschluss der SARS-Risikopersonen bekräftigt.

Die Alternative zum Ausschluss, rigorose Gesundheitskontrollen für rund 5000 Mitarbeitende an den Messeständen in Basel und Zürich, wies die Hong Kong Trade Development Council (TDC) als nicht realisierbar zurück und kündigte Schadenersatzklagen an. Die TDC hatte den «Hong Kong Pavillon» mit 317 Ausstellern organisiert.
Das Personal aus den SARS-gefährdeten Ländern China, Hongkong, Singapur und Vietnam hätte täglich einen Gesundheitscheck durchführen, bei der Arbeit Gesichtsmasken tragen und ihre Stände und Produkte täglich desinfizieren müssen.

Unterdessen wurden in der Schweiz zwei neue SARS-Verdachtsfälle bekannt. Zu den vier bisherigen Verdachtsfällen kamen seit Mittwoch je einer in der West- und in der Ostschweiz hinzu.

In China konnten Experten der Weltgesundheitsorganisation (WHO) am Donnerstag ihre Suche nach dem Erreger der Lungenkrankheit SARS in der südchinesischen Provinz Guangdong aufnehmen.

Weltweit sind inzwischen gegen 80 Menschen in mindestens 17 Ländern an SARS gestorben, mehr als 2300 sind infiziert. Die Wirtschaft im asiatischen Raum ist durch die Krankheit empfindlich in Mitleidenschaft gezogen worden. 041026 apr


SDA-ATS

[ThaiGuru]

The March job number drop was more than triple the 29,000 decrease projected by U.S. economists in a Reuters survey. But the fall was not as dire as the 357,000 job loss the economy suffered in February, which was revised from a previously reported 308,000 decline. Photo by Reuters Graphic

mehr....
http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=S…

[ThaiGuru]

Die Richtung stimmt!

[ThaiGuru]

http://news.goldseek.com/Zealllc/1049482045.php

Real Rates and Gold 4

By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Research


.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.usagold.com

The Afternoon Gold Report...

by Jon Warner

April 4, 2003 (usagold.com)

New York spot gold settled higher at $325.20 an ounce up 40 cents an ounce from yesterday’s close. Gold continued to be under pressure from fund and speculator selling in spite of a larger than expected unemployment number and last month’s upward revision. "It was more of a view on the positive elements of the quicker victory and just overlooking a number that was just so-so bad. It wasn`t terribly bad," said James Pogoda, a vice president of precious metals at Mitsubishi International Corp. Overall, "the generally good progress on the war front is taking the focus away from `safe haven` types of investment vehicles like gold and high quality bonds," said Grady Garrett, chief trading strategist at EnergyTrendAlert.com, a commodity information provider. For now, traders are "positioning themselves for expectations of good news on the war front," he said. Todd Hultman, president of commodity information Web site Dailyfutures.com, voiced disbelief that gold prices fell back so far this week. He expected gold prices to "have better support, especially when the tone of the economic news has been so bad lately." Hultman said the only bearish event for gold is likely the day Baghdad comes under the control of coalition forces. "That day will potentially be a party for the U.S. dollar and stock markets," he said. "Gold is quite oversold, especially in euro terms," said John Vail, a senior strategist at Mizuho Securities USA in Chicago. The precious metal is priced [around] 301 in euro terms, compared with 345 a few weeks ago, he said -- a level not seen since before Sept. 11, 2001. Looking at gold`s value in euro terms strips out the effect of the weak U.S. dollar, he explained. The U.S. dollar has strengthened not for economic reasons but is also headline driven. "Instead of predicting the dollar`s moves by following fundamentals, forecasting the dollar has become forecasting the developments of the war," said Marc Chandler, chief currency strategist with HSBC in New York. "People feel the progress in the Iraq war today is about what would be expected, given the news of the last few days," said Alan Ruskin, research director with 4Cast in New York. "But there`s still uncertainty in terms how it turns out and, underneath it all, I don`t think there`s a huge amount of enthusiasm for the dollar in general."

London gold was fixed this afternoon at $323.80 an ounce, up from $323.20 an ounce at the morning fixing. "Gold has benefited disproportionately from all the geopolitical events, plus the weaker dollar, and we`re now seeing that come out of the market," Kevin Norrish, precious metals analyst with Barclays Capital. Deutsche Bank analyst Peter Rose said the start of war in Iraq had seen the end of the "war premium" paid for gold in the period of uncertainty. "In many ways this is a positive," he added. "We are down at a level now where good physical demand is coming in, from the Far East and India, which is holding the selling," a senior London gold trader said. "We`re basically at crunch point now -- whether we can maintain $325...although I really can`t see it below $320," the senior trader said. Sporadic speculator-led selling continues to pepper the trading day for gold but it is not an entirely one-way street," said Kevin Crisp at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein. After breaking below $326, over the next few weeks gold is likely to test support levels of $320 and $310, he added. Gold continues to trade around yesterday`s poor close as the market returns to its expectation that an end to the first phase of the war in Iraq may not be too far away, analysts at Barclays Capital said. "And given yesterday`s weak close it looks vulnerable to further falls, especially if the US-dollar continues to strengthen. This being said, the gold price remains closely linked to Iraq and can be expected to continue to move in response to headlines," they added. "Should any setback occur (in Iraq), however, a background of weakening U.S. economic data could see the dollar swoon and lift gold back to the mid-$330s very quickly," John Reade, analyst with UBS Warburg, said in a daily market note. "The war premium is unwinding, it`s just a case of how much of that price is actually the premium. Once we get to gold`s true price, and I think we`re getting near to that, we should start seeing some more definite moves one way or the other," said Rory McVeigh, trader with Mitsubishi in London.

Earlier spot gold closed at $323.95 in Hong Kong down $3.90 from yesterday’s close. Gold end-users are eyeing war developments and bullion markets` reactions before stepping in to build-up stocks, anticipating further price declines in the coming month, gold dealers said on Friday. "We saw some physical buyers shopping around when the price was at $325-326 yesterday, but interest is not very strong yet," said Ellison Chu, sales manager at Standard Bank London in Hong Kong. "Premiums have improved a lot but there is not that much trade yet," said Chu. The cautious return of physical interest was not surprising. "The market is still looking for a bottom," said Paul Lee, director of Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein in Sydney. "We could easily see another fall of $5-10 from here and then we are going to have a period of consolidation," Lee said. But further downside was unlikely because gold producers have announced that they would continue to unwind their hedge books throughout 2003 and this would underpin prices above $310, Lee forecast. "There are hundreds of different players in the gold market, all with a different view of where it`s going," said Commonwealth Research commodity strategist David Thurtell. Mr Thurtell said that February`s gold peak was caused as much by the North Korean sabre-rattling as by the Iraqi war. "Gold peaked a long time before the war started and has fallen away, but oil has kept on going," he said. He said that much of the gold activity earlier this year took place in the Tokyo futures market, where the fear of Pyongyang going nuclear was most felt. "Gold thrives on conflict," he added. "But the market is a funny thing. We may not break $320," said one dealer, but added that with some consolidation, good physical buying was likely because few end users were keeping much stock. "The market is pretty neutral this morning," said Pauline Hung chief dealer at Scotia Mocatta in Hong Kong. "There was some early selling from Australia and a bit of physical interest, but we look steady at $324.70/5.20," Hung said. "The outlook for today all depends on the euro."


GEOPOLITICAL NEWS:

About 2,500 Republican Guards surrendered to U.S. forces overnight and U.S. Marines are closing in on Baghdad from the southeast, a U.S. spokesman said on Friday.

U.S. forces seized Baghdad international airport on Friday, their biggest prize yet in a war to oust President Saddam Hussein, and panicked civilians fled into the city after a "night of hell." Saddam International Airport, taken on day 16 of the war, was a key objective for U.S. forces, who can use it as a forward base in any battle for the sprawling city of five million people.

With U.S troops closing in on Baghdad, America`s top military man on Thursday cautioned against euphoria in the war against Iraq and said a lot of tough fighting lay ahead. Air Force Gen. Richard Myers, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, also said that U.S.-led forces might not be in a hurry to overrun Baghdad if it were cut off and President Saddam Hussein was no longer in control of the rest of Iraq.

Iraq has not used chemical weapons despite American fears that it would unleash them as U.S. troops neared Baghdad, prompting Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld to speculate on Thursday that the Iraqis are holding back in vain hope of a peace deal. Defense officials and analysts said the failure of the Iraqis to use chemical or biological weapons might mean their military command-and-control system has been shattered or that officers in the field are refusing to carry out orders.

Afghan and U.S. forces have seized a Taliban mountain base in southwestern Afghanistan, killing eight Taliban and taking 15 prisoners, a U.S. spokesman said on Friday. The United States deployed massive air power against dozens of Taliban fighters in the Tor Ghar mountain area of Kandahar province, dropping at least 35,000 pounds of ordnance after a U.S. special forces unit came under fire on Wednesday.


ECONOMIC NEWS:

The Labor Department showed that the March payroll decline was steeper than the 29,000 decrease projected by U.S. economists. U.S. payrolls dropped by a worse-than-expected 108,000 in March while the February payroll decline of 308,000 was upwardly revised to 357,000. Incredibly the Labor Department claims the unemployment rate managed to stay steady at 5.8 percent when an increase was expected even with much lower expectations. .

The economic outlook for Asia, as Morgan Stanley said, is complicated by the deadly new flu-like virus sweeping the continent. Concern about the impact of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) was fanned on Friday when a report from the Philippines showed export growth was slowing sharply and Moody`s Investment Service warned it could cause Hong Kong`s budget deficit to widen sharply. In addition, Malaysia said it had put off plans to announce an economic stimulus package while it assesses the potential impact of the Iraq war and of SARS, which has already killed more than 80 people, mostly in Asia. "It (SARS) is actually turning out to be a more serious problem than people thought," Australian Foreign Minister Alexander Downer told reporters at the United Nations in New York.


Comment: Fund and speculator selling kept gold under pressure this week in spite of terrible economic data. However, physical gold buying has reemerged with lower gold prices. Meanwhile equities markets and the U.S. dollar surged on gains made by coalition forces in the Iraq War. The markets appear to be strictly headline driven with little regard to the overall deterioration in the global economy. Once the ground war is over investors will have to address the huge costs of the war and reconstruction of Iraq. As the U.S. taxpayer will be expected to bear the brunt of these costs it will have a negative impact on the U.S. dollar. The euphoria on Wall Street may soon be muted as the president’s fiscal stimulus package has been slashed by legislators to defer some of the war costs. Meanwhile today’s unemployment data does not bode well for an economic recovery. Even as the price of gold overshot to the upside on fund and speculator buying during the buildup to war, the price has also overshot to the downside on expectations of a quick victory. This has resulted in a low gold price that is now being taken advantage of by physical buyers, particularly in Asia.


- Jon H. Warner -


E-Mail the current report to a friend or to yourself.
__________________________
Jon Warner is a professional geologist with nearly 24 years in exploration and project development in both mining and petroleum. Mr. Warner brings to the table an impressive industry contact list, thorough knowledge of the precious metals and energy markets as well as a practical understanding of gold`s role in the private investment portfolio. His strong knowledge in these fields has been demonstrated at the USAGOLD Discussion Forum where he posts on a regular basis as Black Blade.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



We invite you to stay tuned to the gold market through our DISCUSSION FORUM
featuring round the clock gold news & commentary from the public.



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[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

Friday April 4 2003

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $15.87, PM $15.19, with world gold at $323.05 and $322.75. Huge: far above legal import point. Reuters weekly summary of Far Eastern physical markets also notes that premiums have risen and that physical buyers are "shopping around". Since no physical dealer, looking for profits by maximizing throughput, likes to admit to strong demand, this amounts to a pretty warm endorsement.

TOCOM, however, took the full brunt of another bout of US triumpalism, with a rampant dollar facilitating for Trade house arbitrage pressure. While volume fell 33% from Thursday to the equivalent of 35,846 Comex contracts, the active contract fell 4 yen and $US gold by $2.35 from NY’s close, to $322.65. Open interest fell the equivalent of 2,683 Comex lots. This was despite a slump in the yen of 1 ½ yen, to 120.06, a factor which usually protects gold. The Nikkei News service reports rumblings that the BOJ is on the brink of taking more drastic monetary action; this could be helpful for gold when the Iraq euphoria fades away. (NY yesterday was estimated to have traded 35,000 lots.)

MarketVane’s Bullish Consensus is down to 50% - the lowest since July 31 2001, a more dispassionate view might be that the extraordinary measures which have repressed gold in the Iraq combat phase are not likely to be sustained for very long.

JB

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

April 4 – Gold $325.20 up 40 cents – Silver $4.39 down 1 cent

Gold Shares Remain Firm After Gold Bludgeoning Week

"Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and are not clothed. This world in arms is not spending money alone. It is spending the sweat of its laborers, the genius of its scientists, the hopes of its children. This is not a way of life at all in any true sense. Under the clouds of war, it is humanity hanging on a cross of iron."
--Dwight Eisenhower 1953 speech

Gold traded up and down in volatile fashion, but within a very tight and choppy range. Right on the close, it popped $1 after being down almost the entire session, finishing right near its highs of the day.

Something struck me this morning while watching CNBC. Lawrence Kudlow, who has his own show on that network, first brought up Alan Greenspan’s threepeat trip to The White House more than 10 days ago. That seemed odd because it is such old news and it really didn’t tie into anything. Then, TWICE he suggested that investors buy gold and sell Treasuries because things were going to be picking up as we head into a period of reflation. He mentioned that gold’s fall was war related. That’s funny because Alan Greenspan, in testimony before Congress, said that gold’s run-up was war related.

This is strictly conjecture on my part, but it wouldn’t surprise me that Kudlow knows something is up regarding gold and has come out publicly recommending it as a buy to enhance his reputation when it moves higher, much higher. His credentials with the establishment, Republican movers and shakers, are as strong as they get for an economist type:

Lawrence Kudlow is CEO of Kudlow & Co., LLC, an economic and investment research firm in New York City.

Larry is co-host of CNBC’s "Kudlow & Cramer" (airs nightly @ 8:00 p.m. and 11:00 p.m.). He is economics commentator for CNBC and a regular guest on "The Closing Bell," "Squawk Box" and "Power Lunch." He is also a regular panelist on The McLaughlin Group.

He is a contributing editor of National Review Magazine, as well as a columnist and economics editor for National Review Online. Mr. Kudlow is a nationally syndicated columnist. He is a Brain Trust columnist for Investor’s Business Daily. He is also the author of "American Abundance: The New Economic and Moral Prosperity," published by Forbes in January 1998.

For many years Mr. Kudlow served as chief economist for a number of Wall Street firms. Recently, Mr. Kudlow was a member of the Bush-Cheney Transition Advisory Committee. During President Reagan`s first term, Mr. Kudlow was the associate director for economics and planning, Office of Management and Budget, Executive Office of the President, where he was engaged in the development of Reagan administration economic and budget policy. He is a former member of the board of directors of Empower America, a grassroots public policy organization chaired by Jack Kemp, William Bennett and Jeane Kirkpatrick.

In addition, he has testified as an expert witness on economic matters before several congressional committees. He has also presented testimony at several Republican Governors Conferences.

Mr. Kudlow began his career as a staff economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, working in the areas of domestic open market operations and bank supervision.

-END-

I can’t help but suspect something is going on here behind the scenes. We shall see. Meanwhile, the US job numbers were MUCH worse than expected:

Washington, April 4 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy lost 108,000 jobs in March, almost three times the number expected, and the unemployment rate held at 5.8 percent as the economy stumbled with the advent of war against Iraq.

The decline in payrolls followed a loss of 357,000 jobs in February, more than originally reported, the Labor Department said. The jobless rate compares with an eight-year high of 6 percent reached in December. –END-

An NBC commentator said these numbers were better than expected?????? The important payroll number was expected to be down only 25,000. The previous number in February was revised upward by 50,000. "SPIN" is out of control in the US.

The DOW managed one of its patented late rallies, rising 37 to 8277. The DOG was noticeably weak after several tech warnings. It finished the day at 1383, down 13. If it were not for the DOW, it would have closed much lower. Once again, it failed to hold 1400, which it breached early on.

The gold shares held their own all week long despite gold’s bludgeoning. It tells me that once the major fighting slows down, or the Iraq regime collapses, the focus of the investment world is going to be on worsening economic issues and on the reflation attempts to solve those problems. The winner: GOLD!

Since so many gold investors are a bit bummed, I thought it a good idea to briefly review the extraordinarily positive fundamentals. They keep getting better and better. It would have been hard to even contemplate such an extensive bullish wish list years ago:

*Soaring gold demand that dwarfs available yearly gold mine supply (2500 tonnes and going down) and scrap supply. The current yearly deficit is running around 1500 tonnes per year. Demand continues firm all over the world.

*A central bank short position of 15,000/16,000 tonnes that grows each month. As that number continues to build, it cuts into the available central bank gold supply left to suppress the price.

*Low interest rates around the world, ones that are going even lower based on the economic news. The 1 ¼ US Fed Funds rate enhances gold as an attractive investment.

*Negative interest rates in the US. The inflation rate is at least double the interest offered in money market accounts. Gold always rises on this kind of occasion. Adam Hamilton’s superb commentary on this very bullish aspect for a higher future gold price is served at The Kiki Table.

*Discouraged investors, who are wary of the stock market. How many years in a row are they will take losses before they bolt?

*Gold producers, who continue to reduce their forward sales positions, which reduces available gold supply and puts more pressure on The Gold Cartel.

*Trade/current account/budget deficits making it likely the dollar must weaken this year. That can only enhance gold’s price prospects.

*Gold’s building popularity, which is creeping its way back into fashion this year in monetary circles (Dinar) and in various investment arenas.

*The war, one that has put gold on the TV radar screen. They cover its price all day long now that it is retreating. Years went by when it was not even mentioned. The anti-gold crowd is loving it as The Gold Cartel smashes gold down. That love will turn to despised hate once gold begins its boomerang route back up again.

The short interest in the gold shares was significant the past few months and has to be a supporting factor for the shares during the latest bout of gold bashing:

There is a great deal of gold share short-covering still to come.

The HUI popped back 1.60 to 120.54. It must clear 125 to put a bull move into high gear. The XAU gained .56 to 64.74. While the shares are treading water like Steady Eddie, they remain 20 to 30% below their May highs when gold was priced as it is now.

Golden Star Resources fans might like to know it has recently been added to the AMEX Gold Bugs Index (HUI). The HUI is comprised largely of gold companies with significant gold price leverage and minimal or no gold price hedging. Golden Star’s current weighting in the index is 5.49%. It closed at $1.76, up two cents.

Gold has been trashed ever since new Treasury Secretary John Snow was sworn in and assumed a leading role in The Gold Cartel, as a result of his role with the ESF. During that same time the Japanese met with the Fed/Treasury and agreed to rig the financial markets. Gold must be an enormous threat to the US financial system for them to take it down so hard after such a big rally. It’s hard to say if the worst is behind us. We may have to wait for the war action to slow down to know that answer, but my guess is that it is. That’s what the share action seems to be telling us.

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

IMF sees chance of U.S. housing bust

Boom in market could turn to slump

By MARTIN CRUTSINGER
THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

WASHINGTON -- One more threat for the fragile economy: America`s booming housing market could be headed for a bust.

In a survey of global economic dangers, the International Monetary Fund warned yesterday that the housing market, after two years of record sales and strong increases in home prices, could be about to slump.

The study said that based on experience, a housing bubble in an industrial country has a 40 percent chance of being followed by a sharp drop in prices.

It did not explicitly forecast a bust, but did raise concerns, especially because past housing declines have been associated with periods of global economic weakness, such as the U.S. recessions in 1991-92 and 1981-82.

The IMF study contrasts with Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan`s belief that the U.S. housing industry is not headed for a sharp falloff in sales or prices.

The record level of sales of both new and existing homes over the past two years has been spurred by the Federal Reserve`s campaign to push interest rates to the lowest level in four decades.

The idea is to bolster an economy hit by plunging stock prices, the 2001 recession, terrorist attacks on New York and Washington and corporate accounting scandals.

While the report found that housing busts occurred less often than stock market slumps, housing declines tended to last longer and were a bigger drag on the overall economy.

The IMF said stock market declines occurred on average every 13 years, lasted for about 2 1/2 years and resulted in a 4 percent loss in total economic output.

By contrast, a period of sharp declines in housing prices tended to last nearly twice as long -- four years -- and resulted in a GDP loss that was twice as large as the GDP losses caused by a drop in stock prices.

IMF officials stressed they were not saying the current 27 percent rise in home prices was an asset price bubble that was bound to burst -- but officials said economic policy-makers need to be aware of the potential risks.

-END-

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[Culogrande1]

@fetter,kastrierter Siamkater: es ist wohl deine Art friedliebende User als Arschloch zu betiteln.

Sollte das der Mod geflissentlich übersehen haben

Aber der Dottore Lupo wurde gesperrt weil er dich als ein solches bezeichnete

Naja,vielleicht sollte ich ihm recht geben.

Die Qualität deiner reinkopierten Beiträge erinnert verdammt an englische Manfredos ,den meisten deiner Leser fällt das nur nicht auf...andere Sprak schwera Sprak.

Culogrande....sach ich mal

[erdede]

@culogrande @ThaiGuru und evtl. andere Beteiligte

...so schnüss jetzt mit dem gegenseitigen Anfeindungen, das kostet doch nur unnötige Energie, ineffizient und hier gehört es erst recht nicht rein.

Gebt Euch cybermässig die Hand und nehmt die gegenseitigen Beleidigungen zurück. Es bringt doch nichts, wir werden uns doch nicht in den Niederungen des Anstandes bewegen, wir stehen doch über der Sache..es gibt ja genügend andere... Meint ihr nicht?

Also schwamm drüber.

Ok?

erdede

[Basic]

Hallo,
So lange es keinen Impschutz gibt sind wir der Grippe hoffnungslos ausgeliefert. Schliesslich können nicht alle Menschen mit irgendwelchen Symptomen 14 Tage hinter Schloss und Riegel!
Gegen Vieren helfen keine Medikamente, Penezelin tötet nur Bakterien.
Bei Vieren gibt es nur Symtom Behandlung und Stärkungsmittel wie Vitamin C und Proteine.

Leider lernt die Menschheit nie dazu, siehe Irak.
Hoffen wie das Beste

Gruß Basic

Bernhard Meyer
Spanische Grippe kam in drei Schüben
Das Jahr 1918 ging als ein politisch bewegtes und Europa veränderndes Jahr in die Geschichte ein. Der von Berlin aus gewollte und mitdirigierte Weltkrieg verfiel in Agonie. Das Deutsche Reich drohte durch Kriegsmüdigkeit und die Lebensmittelrationierung zu paralysieren. Der Krieg fand im November sein offizielles Ende. Die deutschen Arbeiter und Soldaten erhoben sich, beseitigten die Monarchie und jubelten der neuen Republik und ihren Repräsentanten zu. Deutschland und seine Reichshauptstadt wurden in jenem Jahr von einer verheerenden Grippe (Influenza)- Pandemie heimgesucht, die als »Spanische Grippe« bezeichnet wurde.
Die Anfang 1918 in Spanien aufgekommene Grippewelle erfaßte alle Erdteile und in Europa die kriegführenden Parteien aller Fronten wie auch die neutralen Länder.1)
Experten vermuten, daß es sich um die wahrscheinlich opferreichste Pandemie (gleichzeitige weltweite Ausdehnung einer Infektionskrankheit) seit Mitte des 14. Jahrhunderts handelte, als die Pest reiche Ernte hielt.
Schätzungen und Hochrechnungen zufolge raffte die Spanische Grippe 1918/19 in aller Welt etwa 15 bis 25 Millionen Menschen dahin. Zum Vergleich: Der Erste Weltkrieg forderte von allen am Krieg beteiligten Ländern zehn Millionen Todesopfer und 20 Millionen Verletzte. Indien bekam mit fünf bis zwölf Millionen Todesopfern die Gefährlichkeit der Infektionskranheit besonders zu spüren. In den USA überlebten 500000 Menschen die Infektion nicht, in Großbritannien waren 112 000, in Frankreich 96000 und in Italien 500000 Opfer zu beklagen.
Im Deutschen Reich erkrankten 15 Prozent der Bevölkerung, das waren zehn Millionen Bürger. Von den Infizierten starben 186 000 Menschen im Jahre 1918; rechnet man die Opfer von 1919 und 1920 hinzu, so ergibt sich eine Zahl von knapp 300000 Gestorbenen. Dieser Zahl stehen 1,8 Millionen gefallene deutsche Soldaten im Ersten Weltkrieg gegenüber, zu denen noch mindestens 750000 an Unterernährung Gestorbene gezählt werden müssen. Der Aderlaß zwischen 1910 und 1925 führte zu einer Verringerung junger Menschen in Deutschland um ca. 25 Prozent.
Bereits am Ende des 19. Jahrhunderts hatte sich die Grippe von Rußland aus verbreitet und erstreckte sich auf 40 Prozent der Weltbevölkerung und auf einen ebensolchen Anteil der deutschen Städtebevölkerung. In Preußen starben damals 34000 Menschen, im Deutschen Reich etwa 50000 Menschen.

[manfred1_I]

Jetzt wo im Goldbereich eine kleine Korrektur
des Aufwärtstrendes abläuft habt ihr doch
sicher mal Zeit, euch die kleine austr.
Jumbo WKN 850269 anzuschauen.
Hat zwar nichts mit Gold zu tun, aber könnte durchaus
interessant werden.
Meine einzige Aktie, die nicht mit Gold zu tun hat.


Berlin-Bremen 04.04.03
19:38:52 0,010
EUR 0,00
+42,86% 0,01
0,01 100.000
0,01
JUMBO CORP. LTD. SHARES O.N.

JUMBO CORP FPO

Australien 04.04.03
06:48:10 0,02
AUD 0,01
+71,43% 0,02
0,02 239.000
0,02

Australien + 71,43 % und in Berlin + 42,86 %.

Viel Glück.

[Biotechperle]

Die Inder kaufen wieder

SATURDAY, APRIL 5, 2003
THE TIMES OF INDIA
PTI[ SATURDAY, APRIL 05, 2003 07:30:47 PM ]

NEW DELHI: Gold prices recovered on the bullion market on Saturday on revival of buying by retail investors at prevailing low levels and closed with a notable gain of Rs.50 at Rs.5160 per ten gram.
The yellow metal which plunged to eight months low last evening on stockists` selling in tune with international trend, attracted buying from local parties.
The retail customers who were postponing their decision on buying in last few days, came out to purchase for the ongoing `Navratras`.
The white metal also joined the rising trend as silver ready gained Rs.10 at Rs.7505 per kilo while weekly-based delivery by Rs.15 at Rs.7475 per kilo.
Standard gold and ornaments shot up by Rs.50 each at Rs.5160 and Rs.5010 per ten gram respectively. Sovereign held unchanged at Rs.4400 per piece of eight gram.
Following were today`s quotations: Silver ready 7505 and delivery 7475. Silver coins buyer 11,600 and seller 11,700. Standard gold 5160, Ornaments 5010 and Sovereign
4400.

http://217.204.41.132/cgi/NGoto/2/27196737?3925

Bio

[ThaiGuru]

@erdede

Was heisst hier schluss mit den gegenseitigen Beleidigungen?

Der Dottore Lupo nennt sich "Culogrande"
Das heisst nun mal auf deutsch "Grosses Arschloch"

Wenn sich jemand den Usernamen "Hardman" im Board aussucht, und er dann von andern Usern auf deutsch "Harter Mann" genannt wird, ist das ja wohl sicher auch keine Beleidigung.

Dein Apell ist sicher konstruktiv gemeint. Doch an meine Adresse gerichtet eher unangebracht.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

http://news.independent.co.uk/business/news/story.jsp?story=…

South African mining giants face $6bn law suit

By Saeed Shah

05 April 2003

Anglo American and De Beers, the mining giants, were yesterday hit with a $6.1bn (£3.9bn) lawsuit for alleged gross human rights violations during the apartheid era in South Africa.

The class action case will be heard in the US and prosecuted by Ed Fagan, the lawyer who made his name in a successful claim against Swiss banks that held onto the deposits of Jews killed by the Nazis.

The case singles out Anglo American and De Beers as among the chief economic beneficiaries of the apartheid system, which severely restricted the freedom of South Africa`s black population until majority rule was introduced in 1994. Shares in London-listed Anglo American dropped 3.3 per cent to 940p. The company, which said it will vigorously contest the case, owns 45 per cent of De Beers, the diamond business.

A South African law firm, Ngcebetsha Madlanga Attorneys, is behind the lawsuit, which seeks money to compensate miners who suffered under apartheid, many of whom are still alive. About 100,000 workers are party to the action, though any reparation won will go to poor black communities, rather than individuals.

John Ngcebetsha, senior partner at the law firm, said apartheid produced such cheap labour that it was "tantamount to slavery". He added that key laws of the apartheid regime, such as the pass laws, which restricted the movement of black people and created a captive labour force, were "engineered by the mining industry".

Anglo American reacted with fury to the case, especially to the fact that it is to be filed in the US. The company has just been heavily criticised for its record under apartheid in the report of South Africa`s Truth and Reconciliation Commission, to which it gave evidence. "The question of whether reparations to individuals is an appropriate or effective way to assist in the rebuilding of South Africa is a matter to be resolved through South Africa`s democratic processes, including, if necessary, its courts," the company said.

Anglo American argued that it has contributed, since 1994, to initiatives aiming to redress the effects of apartheid. It also claimed that the group was always against the racially divisive system. "During the apartheid era Anglo American undertook many actions in opposition to apartheid policies and in support of anti-apartheid campaigners. We firmly believe that our opposition helped bring about an end to the apartheid system," the company said.

Mr Ngcebetsha, speaking from Johannesburg, described such arguments as "laughable" and easily contested by the miners. "We are prepared for them [Anglo American]. If they want to embarrass themselves by arguing such things in court, so be it," Mr Ngcebetsha said.

[ThaiGuru]

http://news.goldseek.com/MarketWise/1049568864.php

Real Estate Stampede Ahead? + Gold & More Trading Notes

By: Rick Ackerman, Market Wise Black Box

Auszug:

If Bubble Bursts

"All of the discussion about inflation or deflation, job growth or decline, corporate scandals, war debt, budget deficits, trade deficits, P/E ratios and add whatever else you can think of -- are immaterial to what`s coming. If the real estate bubble bursts, we`ll have an economic earthquake worse than what we`re in and it will last longer that The Great Depression.

And it won`t take much to cause the stampede of real estate selling (and then, of stocks), and a subsequent decline in real estate values, then rampant foreclosures as people walk away from highly leveraged properties by then will be worth a fraction of the mortgage regardless of how low the interest rate. Rents will plummet.

How about a simple [Fed] rate increase to stop the flow of refinance money, kick up adjustable-rate mortgages and take huge numbers of buyers out of the market who can no longer qualify for the higher monthly costs? At least stocks owned with stops (something you don`t always employ in Black Box but which I always employ -- it`s so easy to buy back stocks later) provide some liquidity.

"The more people who prepare themselves for the coming debacle, the less severe will be the consequences -- for the real estate market and for the U.S. economy overall. I`m reminded of a 1932 book, The Point & Figure Method of Anticipating Stock Price Movements, by Victor De Villiers, wherein it`s stated that if more people had used this method to buy and sell stocks, the crash might have been avoided or at least ameliorated. The same holds true for real estate values today. After thousands of years of improvement in knowledge, mankind has yet to change psychologically. What has happened before will happen again."

[ThaiGuru]

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/cms.dll/html/uncomp/arti…

Sunday, April 6, 2003

ICICI Bank to launch gold accumulation plan soon
DIGANTA SAIKIA

TIMES NEWS NETWORK[ FRIDAY, APRIL 04, 2003 11:33:58 PM ]
NEW DELHI: At A time when safe-haven metal gold is gaining currency among the investor community across the globe, ICICI Bank is planning to launch a “gold accumulation plan” soon.

However, this is purely for the consumer, and not for the speculators.That is, if you are the kind who wants to invest in gold for trading purposes, you better keep away from it.

The accumulation plan will enable an individual to buy gold even if he doesn’t have the money to buy it at a single point of time. It works as follows: an individual may come to the bank with Rs 1,000 with which the bank will deposit 1.5 gram of gold to his account. He can continue to do so until the amount deposited becomes equivalent to the price of 10 gram. The day his deposit becomes equivalent to 10 gram, the bank hands him over the coin.

Incidentally, even 5 gram of coin can also be bought through this process. And the catch is the deal takes place at a pre-determined price which helps avoiding any volatility in the gold price during the process.

Says Amitabh Chaturvedi, head, retail channels and liabilities group, ICICI Bank: “It’d work like a forward contract where gold will be priced at a pre-determined rate, that is, the day he starts depositing money on that count.”

CICI Bank has recently started selling ‘ICICI Bank Pure Gold’- certified and tamper proof 24 carat pure gold coins across the counter at the bank branches in Mumbai and Delhi.

ICICI Bank Pure Gold coins are imported from Switzerland. Each gold coin carries a 99.99% Assay certification, signifying highest level of purity according to international industry standards.

The launch provides Indian customers an easy and reliable way of buying gold, a popular investment option, without any worries about the purity of the item purchased. It also marks the first effort by a bank in India to retail gold on a sustained basis.

Says Mr Chaturvedi: “In the last three months since the launch, we’ve been able to sell 40 kg of gold. For the next year, our target is 3 tonnes, and we are confident of being able to make it.”

Adds Mr Chaturvedi: “The bank is also planning to start retail sale of government securities at demat form by the end of April. Otherwise, the cost of transaction becomes normally very high while trading in paper format.”

[ThaiGuru]

Gold Investor News

$20 Bill Soon To Change Colors

To fight counterfeiters who have put $695 billion of fake U.S. currency into world circulation, the U.S. Mint soon will begin printing $20 bills in colors other than green and black, U.S. Treasurer Rosario Marin said Thursday.

Soll man sich mal richtig vorstellen!

Fast 9 x könnte man alle Goldminen Aktien dieser Welt, zu den heutigen Kursen, mit den 695 Millarden Dollars, die sich als Falschgeld im weltweiten Umlauf befinden sollen aufkaufen. (TG)

weiter...
http://www.nola.com/news/t-p/index.ssf?/base/news-0/10494411…

[ThaiGuru]

http://morgenpost.berlin1.de/inhalt/wirtschaft/story595831.h…

Gold lockt wieder Anleger

Der Preis für das Edelmetall verharrt auf hohem Niveau - Experten sehen weiteres Aufwärtspotenzial

Von Daniel Eckert

Mit dem Ausbruch des Irak-Krieges und der Hoffnung auf ein schnelles Ende ist das gelbe Metall wieder billiger geworden. Der Preis ist auf dem tiefsten Stand seit vier Monaten. Aber für sicherheitsbewusste Anleger bleibt Gold weiterhin reizvoll.

Berlin - Wer Anfang 2002 bei Gold den richtigen Riecher hatte und sich mit Barren, Münzen oder Zertifikaten eindeckte, konnte sich innerhalb von zwölf Monaten über eine Wertsteigerung von 35 Prozent freuen. Damit scheint es nun erst einmal vorbei zu sein: Bereits vor Ausbruch des Irak-Kriegs war der Kurs stark ins Rutschen gekommen und ist nun mit 323,20 Dollar je Feinunze auf den tiefsten Stand seit vier Monaten gefallen.

"Was wir am Goldmarkt im Winter gesehen haben, war eine typische Überhitzungserscheinung", sagt Stefan Gresse, Goldexperte bei ABN Amro. "Jetzt baut sich der Kriegsaufschlag ab." Auch Gernot Rumpf, Fondsmanager bei Union Investment, sieht in nächster Zeit keine "Preisexzesse" von um die 380 Dollar je Feinunze mehr. Die Korrektur werde sich noch eine Weile fortsetzen.

Wolfgang Wrzesniok, Leiter des Edelmetall- und Rohstoffhandels bei Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein in Frankfurt, hat indes beobachtet, dass es unterhalb von 330 Dollar bereits wieder zu Käufen kommt, die den Kurs stützen. Umgekehrt streiken derzeit viele indische und fernöstliche Käufer bei Kursen über 340 Dollar. Aus diesem Grund glaubt Axel Breil von der Bankgesellschaft Berlin, dass sich der Goldpreis im kommenden halben Jahr zwischen 330 bis 340 Dollar bewegen wird.

Die meisten Marktbeobachter betrachten den langfristigen Trend hin zu höheren Goldpreisen aber als intakt. Immerhin zehn von 21 Analysten, die die Nachrichtenagentur Reuters befragte, erwarten im Jahresschnitt einen Preis von 350 Dollar je Feinunze oder darüber.

"Wir beobachten eine Verlagerung von der Rendite zu Sicherheit", erklärt Gresse. Deshalb könne das Gold für Anleger, deren Risikoneigung sehr gering geworden ist, besonders interessant werden. Für alle, denen Gold in physischer Form zu umständlich ist, hat Gresse für ABN Amro daher Zertifikate entwickelt, mit denen Anleger an der Dynamik des Goldpreises teilhaben können.

Wer auf einen steigenden Goldpreis setzt und es etwas spekulativer mag, sollte sich an die Aktien von Minengesellschaften halten. "Eine Faustregel besagt, dass Goldaktien Bewegungen des Rohstoffs um den Faktor zwei bis drei verstärken", sagt Martin Siegel, Fondsmanager des PEH-Q-Goldmines. Das gilt jedoch nur für Unternehmen, die kein oder nur wenig "Hedging" betreiben, ihre Produktion also nicht schon Jahre im Voraus zu einem festgesetzten Preis verkaufen. "Wer Gold, das er 2005 fördert, zum heutigen Kurs verkauft, hat von zwischenzeitlich steigenden Preisen keinen Vorteil", sagt Siegel.

[tigergirl]

Diese Nachricht hat mich wirklich erschreckt, obwohl man natürlich mit einer solchen US-Perfidie rechnen mußte.

Unter dem Vorwand, Gerichtsprozese für die `human rights` oder allgemein zur Wiedergutmachung von Unrecht zu führen, sollen unliebsame (nicht us-amerikanische, versteht sich) Konkurrenten von US-Firmen erst ausgeraubt und ihnen dann das Genick gebrochen werden.
Schändliche Beispiele hierfür sind der erwähnte Prozess gegen die Schweiz wg. "Nazigold" (die "Schuld" der Schweiz war in Wirklichkeit ihre nicht 100% US-Gefolgschaft), oder der inszenierte Lipobay-Skandal (trotz einiger gerichtl. Anfangserfoge wird dies f. Bayer vermutl. noch sehr teuer werden; bei Pfizer oder Amgen werden vergleichbare Fälle natürlich niemals derart geahndet), oder die Erpressung der Allianz, für das WTC-Attentat gleich 2 mal zu zahlen, da es 2 "von einander unabhängige (!)" Flugzeuganschläge gewesen wären, usw. usf...

Jetzt hat es die südafrikanischen Goldminen getroffen.
Sicherlich waren viele der damals bereits bestehenden Company`s in das Apartheidsregime verstrickt. Darum geht es den US-Gerichten aber sicher nicht. Von der vielen ungerechten Strukturen und dem Elend der Welt profitiert ja wohl die US-Industrie am allermeißten. Ging es hier auch nur um finanzielle Gerechtigkeit, müßte jedem US-Bürger der UpperClass alles bis zum letzten Hemd ausgezogen werden. Wohl alle großen US-Firmen müßten mit Strafen belegt werden, dass sie im Überlebensfall bis ins nächste Jahrhundert verschuldet wären.
Aber das wird natürlich niemals passieren.

Ich befürchte für Anglogold (evtl. auch andere Minen ?) das schlimmste, da solche Prozesse Inquisitionsprozesse sind: faire Verhandlungen sind nicht zu erwarten; die Anklage kommt faktisch einem Schuldspruch gleich, da man diese Prozesse höchstens mit millionen (milliarden?)-schweren "Vergleichen" beilegen kann, neben den horrenden Prozesskosten.

Anglogold (und evtl. auch andere südafrikan. Minen) werden damit meiner Ansicht nach tatsächlich in ihrer Existenz gefährdet.

grüße tigergirl

[erdede]

Preisexzesse von 380 USD etc...,das ich nicht lache,
dazu kam es gar nicht, da wurde rechtzeitig die Handbremse gezogen, nicht von einem geregeltem Markt notabene....
in der heutigen maroden Wirtschaftslage der USA sind Preise zwischen 350 und 360 als Basis opportun, Kriegsprämie längst abgebaut,
bei den amerikanischen Börsen finden wir diese Preisexzesse, aber davon will ja niemand was wissen, durchschnittliche KGV`s von über 30 in der heutigen Zeit, einzelne Titel sogar über 70....

die nächste Misere könnte bald mal anstehen.


erdede

[Jens1971]

oje..der gold index sieht aber nicht gut aus.um 2 uhr satte 1,2% verloren!!!

[Jens1971]

jetzt 1,4%...geh lieber schlafen jetzt..das sieht ja düster aus!!!

[Culogrande1]

@impotenter Siamkater: wie willst du je das Glück guten Sexs erfahren?

Ich erklärte dir die richtige Übersetzung....es heist Riesenarschloch.

Ich erklärte dir Intelligenzbolzen auch warum ich mit diesem Nick unterzeichne

Es ändert trotzdem an deinem IQ herzlich wenig...weil dumm herumschreien ist noch keine Leistung.

Deine Durchhalteparolen erinnern in der Wortwahl an die Endzeit Adolfs.

Und glaubst du Ted Butler schreibt intelligenter als Männimaus.

Culogrande...ganz vertraulich nur zu dir

[ThaiGuru]

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2003-04/07/content_819334.…

Macao enforces new commercial law on gold

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Xinhuanet 2003-04-07 13:39:25

MACAO, April 7 (Xinhuanet) -- A new commercial law on gold was putinto effect Monday in Macao to regulate the Special AdministrativeRegion`s gold retail market.

According to the new law, gold retailers are obliged to give clear indication on the invoice, which should include the price, purity of the gold as well as name and address of producers and retailers, otherwise, they could be fined 5,000 (602 US dollars) to 50,000 pacatas (6,020 US dollars) besides penalties exercised on criminal law.

Prior to this, legal disputes on gold commodities were hard to be dealt with since consumers were not usually provided with clearlegal documents for their purchase. However, from now on, standardID code should be labeled on gold commodities based on the purity.Only gold with a purity above 90 per milli can be labeled as pure gold.

Gold falls into the list of the hottest selling tourist products in Macao, which hosted 11.5 million tourist arrivals lastyear. Shops are stuffed with dazzling gold souvenirs like Buddha status and jewelry can be seen everywhere in the free-trade port city, which is bestowed with independent executive, legislative and judicial powers by the Central Government. Enditem

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.neftegaz.ru/english/lenta/show.php?id=34332

Oil, Gold, Dollar

07.04.2003 10:07

Crude oil and gold are moving down while the dollar is rising.

Crude oil fell as much as 3% on speculation a resumption of Iraqi exports may be speeded up. Crude-oil for May delivery fell as much as 85 cents to $27.77 a barrel in after-hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and recently traded at $27.96 a barrel.

Gold fell to a four-month low. Gold for immediate delivery fell as much as $4.75, or 1.5%, to $320.80 an ounce. It recently traded at $321.45 an ounce.

The dollar strengthened to $1.0655 per euro, from $1.0735.


Neftegaz.ru

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.sofmag.com/story1.html

SOLDIER OF FORTUNE • MAY 2003

TERRORISM SITREP

by Dr. Martin Brass

CALL TO ARMS

Taped voice of bin Laden commands Muslims to revenge Iraqis. “We stress the importance of suicide bombings against the enemy.” U.S. EXPATS warned to prepare to evacuate embassies and keep prescriptions, passports and food stocks in event of “terrorist attacks.” MASS CASUALTY ATTACK to rival 9-11 planned, according to intelligence officials. ORANGE ALERT, second highest alert, declared. Citizens told to prepare to seal homes in event of chem-bio attack. FARMERS warned terrorists might infect herds with hoof-and-mouth disease. FBI estimates 100 al-Qaeda cells in U.S.


UNITED STATES

Benevolence International Foundation’s Syrian-born, U.S.-naturalized leaders Mohamed Bayazid and and Ennam M. Arnaout tried to provide nuclear chemicals for bin Laden in Sudan, to be used in U.S. Embassy bombings in East Africa. UNSUSPECTING DONORS: Microsoft, Hewlett Packard said to have made donations.

UNITED KINGDOM

Armor and tanks deployed to London Streets, after warning received of missile attack against civilian aircraft at Heathrow Airport. UNPRECEDENTED anti-war demonstrations fueled by reports that Iraqi threat was exaggerated by government report, which plagiarized outdated academic piece.

GERMANY

U.S. Embassy in Berlin closed after terrorist warning. Interior Minister Otto Schily says threat “at least as high as it was before 9-11.”

CZECH REPUBLIC

GO EAST al-Qaeda. Intelligence sources warn that members of terrorist units traveling on fake Pakistani passports plan attacks in Czech Republic, Germany, France and U.K.

FRANCE

MECCA-COLA Cola war. “No more drinking stupid. Drink with Commitment” — slogan of new soft drink selling like hotcakes. French/Arab manufacturer told BBC Mecca Cola combats “American imperialism and Zionism by providing a substitute for American goods and increasing the blockade of countries boycotting American goods.” British, German, Belgian, Italian, Spanish, Swedish, and Danish Islamic supporters join Middle Easterners to the tune of millions of bottles since cola launched a few months ago — 20% of profits go to Palestinian and European charities.

SAUDI ARABIA

BOYCOTTS U.S. GOODS — U.S. exports to Saudi Arabia declined 40% in first quarter of 2002, one indicator of anti-U.S. movement. Americans warned to leave.

ISRAEL

Saddam look-alike bodyguard “the Gatekeeper” held by Israeli intelligence in Negev desert, informed Mossad of Saddam’s secret arsenal, including motorized underwater chemical mines that creep along seabed and surface to detonate beneath battleships. CAPTURED: 10 Islamic Jihad members, who had killed 16 Israelis. POSSIBLE ATTACK of Lebanon by Israel.

IRAQ

ASSASSINATED: Kurdish minister and two officials by Ansar al-Islam (Helpers of Islam) operatives masquerading as peace negotiators. LINK TO AL-QAEDA: U.S. intelligence and Patriotic Union of Kurdistan claim that Ansar al-Islam is Iraqi link to bin Laden. Group denies accusations; says U.S. using them to hype case against Sadaam. Group positioning itself if Saddam overthrown, claims civil war fight against de facto Kurdish government. Kurd leader Mullah Krekar said to have trained with bin Laden in ’80s.

PALESTINE

140 suspected suicide bomber homes destroyed by Israel since August. Dozens of innocent Palastinians killed.

ETHIOPIA

LIBYAN President Muamar Qaddafi threatens, if U.S. bombs Iraq: “terrorism will prevail if you follow the course of war” (in speech to African Union in Addis Ababa).

ITALY

ARRESTED, 28 Pakistanis suspected as al-Qaeda operatives.

GREECE

“November 17” terrorist group members on trial. PROFIT FROM TERROR: Right-wing newspaper publisher allegedly involved in terror- and assassination-protection for business? magnates for big bucks.

NEPAL

49 U.S. Special Forces operators train local troops in counterterrorism techniques.

PAKISTAN

Inter- Services Intelligence (ISI) said to harbor Taliban leaders who cross into Afghan-istan to launch 90% of rocket attacks against U.S. bases. LASHKAR-E-TAYYABA group, number 36 on U.S. terrorism list — group implicated in killing Wall Street Journal reporter Daniel Pearl, and bombing buses and churches.

SOUTH KOREA

Rumors of strategic strikes against North Korean nuclear sites rejected. North might retaliate by unleashing thousands of rockets and long-range artillery hidden in tunnels, aimed at Seoul.

PHILIPPINES

U.S. troops deployed in Muslim guerrilla stronghold of Sulu archipelago to train Filipino troops in counter-terrorism, to fight Abu Sayyaf Group that kidnapped dozens of Americans in two years. ARRESTED: Two Abu Sayyaf members.

INDONESIA

AMMONIUM NITRATE found: Two tons, similar to that used in Bali bombings of home on Sulawesi island — 250 kilos found on Christmas. ARRESTED: Jemaay Islamiyah leader Mas Selamat bin Kastari, fugitive in foiled plot to blow up U.S. embassy in Singapore.

COLOMBIA

FARC, shifting its terror from rural empire, unleashes bloody urban campaign. SOCIAL CLUB RIPPED APART: Car bomb kills 35 and injures 200 in worst attack in Bogota in decade. EXECUTED: U.S. citizen and Colombian sergeant. KIDNAPPED: Two Americans held as “war booty” after plane crashes. U.S. officials fear attacks on U.S. interests are designed to draw U.S. into half-century-old civil war, forcing U.S. to fight on three fronts — Iraq, Colombia, and North Korea

BAHAMAS

SEALs conduct counterterrorism operation dubbed “Giant Shadow.” U.S.S. Florida, Ohio, Michigan and Georgia missile submarines of Cold War fame are being converted to carry on operations to detect chemical-weapons facilities built by terrorrists on nearby islands.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.reuters.com/locales/newsArticle.jsp?type=business…

07 Apr 2003 09:44

Indian gold buying to intensify as prices tumble
NEW DELHI (Reuters) - Gold demand in India, the world`s largest importer, has risen in the past few days and its buying is likely to intensify this week with a fall in prices after U.S. troops raided on Baghdad on Monday, traders said.

The country`s gold demand, which increases during the wedding and festival seasons, is expected to remain firm until June.

"There is a hectic buying activity in the market," said Narendra Singh Rathore of Kiran Jewellers from Jaipur, a key importing centre. "People are comfortable with the current price level."

One New Delhi-based trader said: "Gold has lost its status as a safe-haven investment since the war began, and we expect the prices to remain stable around $300 (an ounce),"

Spot gold was trading at a four-month low of $320/320.75 an ounce at 0800 GMT on Monday, well below New York`s last indicated $325.35/326.05 on Friday.

"But prices are unlikely to fall below $300 an ounce even after the end of the war as the U.S. economy and the dollar will remain under pressure due to the impact of the war," said H.P. Rajdev, a bullion trader in the western city of Ahmedabad.

Some traders said they were waiting and watching the situation as prices could further fall to $300-$310 an ounce from now after the end of the war.

U.S. tanks smashed into a presidential complex in central Baghdad on Monday, taking the war to oust Iraqi President Saddam Hussein to the very heart of the city.

"We have postponed buying because prices are going down. We will wait for the stability to return," a trader said.

Safe-haven gold has a history of price volatility in times of war. It gained $45 to $415 when Iraqi forces invaded Kuwait in August 1990, then fell $40 to $336 when allied forces began action to evict Iraq from the Gulf emirate in January, 1991.

India imports an average 1.5 tonnes of gold every day to meet its annual domestic demand of more than 800 tonnes.

[ThaiGuru]

Wie lange die Rally an den Weltbörsen wohl noch anhalten wird?



http://www.reuters.de/news_article.jhtml;jsessionid=2PGISLXU…

Industrie hat das Jahr 2003 konjunkturell bereits abgehakt

07 April 2003 12:50 CEST

Hannover (Reuters) - Die deutsche Industrie hat nach Worten von Verbandspräsident Michael Rogowski das laufende Jahr konjunkturell bereits abgehakt und setzte seine Hoffnungen nun auf 2004. Da daher notwendige Impulse für den Arbeitsmarkt ausblieben, sei im kommenden Winter ein Anstieg der Arbeitslosenzahlen in Deutschland auf über fünf Millionen vorstellbar.



"Ökonomisch, konjunkturell ist das Jahr 2003 gelaufen. Unsere Hoffnung liegt bei 2004. Aber wenn wir das gut vorbereiten, dann bin ich zuversichtlich, 2004 wird wesentlich besser aussehen", sagte Rogowski der Nachrichtenagentur Reuters am Montag zum Auftakt der Industriemesse in Hannover. Eine wirkliche Wende durch umfassende Reformen werde in Deutschland aber mehrere Jahre dauern, fügte der BDI-Chef hinzu. Rogowski, der Bundeskanzler Gerhard Schröder (SPD) bei seinem traditionellen Messerundgang zum Auftakt der Hannover-Messe begleitete, sprach dem Kanzler erneut seine Unterstützung für die anstehenden Sozialreformen aus. Auf die Frage, was die Wirtschaft dazu beitragen könne, damit die Vorhaben gelängen, sprach sich der BDI-Chef für Subventionsabbau aus.

Zur konjunkturellen Entwicklung zeigte sich Rogowski wenig zuversichtlich, dass bereits im laufenden Jahr eine Besserung eintreten könnte. Die Ergebnisse der aktuellen Branchenumfrage seien allesamt nicht erquicklich und deuteten auf Stagnation hin. Zugleich bekräftige der Industrieverband zur weltgrößten Industriemesse seine Prognose eines Wirtschaftswachstums für 2003 von allenfalls 0,5 Prozent. "Die Bundesregierung wird ihre Prognose von einem Prozent Wachstum korrigieren müssen", betonte Rogowski daraufhin auf einer Pressekonferenz zu Messebeginn. Allerdings erwarte er 2003 auch keine Rezession. Die meisten Branchen hätten die Talsohle erreicht, insofern sei er optimistisch, dass es 2004 wieder aufwärts gehen könne. Die Bundesregierung wird nach Angaben aus Regierungkreisen Ende April ihre Wachstumprognose senken.

ROGOWSKI: ARBEITSLOSIGKEIT STEIGT TROTZ REFORMEN

"Wenn die Regierung, das was sie versprochen hat und der Bundeskanzler, das was er in seiner Rede vom 14. März gesagt hat, wirklich auf den Weg bringt, (...) dann bin ich zuversichtlich, dass wir wenigstens im nächsten Jahr wieder eine ganz andere Konjunkturlandschaft erleben", sagte Rogowski. Zugleich drückte er die Befürchtung aus, dass trotz der von der Bundesregierung eingleiteten Reformen im kommenden Winter die Marke von fünf Millionen Arbeitslosen überschritten werde. Mit 4,6 Millionen Menschen ohne Beschäftigung hatte Deutschland im März die höchste Arbeitslosenzahl in einem März seit mehr als zehn Jahren. Deutschland brauche endlich einen grundlegenden Wandel der Wirtschaftsstrukturen, sagte Rogowski.

Der BDI-Chef wies zugleich darauf hin, dass die maßgeblich vom Export beeinflusste deutsche Wirtschaft auch unter den Unsicherheiten in der Weltwirtschaft leidet. "Die deutschen Exporteure halten sich zwar nach wie vor wacker. Aber der Export kompensiert nicht die Schwächen, die wir im Inland in fast allen Branchen haben", sagte Rogowski. Eine Ende des Irak-Krieges, wie es sich inzwischen abzeichne, sei daher sehr zu wünschen. Für 2003 erwarte der BDI allenfalls ein Exportwachstum von zwei bis drei Prozent.

Zurückhaltend reagierte der BDI auf die Forderung von Bundeskanzler Schröder, mehr Ausbildungsplätze zur Verfügung zu stellen. Die Lage auf dem Lehrstellenmarkt spiegele lediglich die Situation der Unternehmen wider. Bei schwierigen Konjunkturaussichten sei es auch nicht möglich, mehr Ausbildungsplätze bereit zu halten, sagte BDI-Hauptgeschäftsführer Ludolf von Wartenberg. Schröder hatte am Sonntagabend erklärt, in Deutschland fehlten in diesem Jahr bis zu 140.000 Lehrstellen. Diese müsse die Wirtschaft schaffen.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.usagold.com

The Afternoon Gold Report...

by Jon Warner

April 7, 2003 (usagold.com)

New York spot gold settled lower at $321.20 an ounce up down $4.00 an ounce from Friday’s close. Gold fell lower at the open but found support around $320 with physical buying and short covering by funds. "U.S. tanks roll into downtown Baghdad, U.S. Marines probe the tunnel complex discovered below the main presidential palace occupied for a time today by coalition forces -- and thus war trades continue to be unwound," wrote analyst Gregory Weldon, publisher of Morning Metal Monitor. "The reason why we were off the lows was because of the chemicals story," said Robert Gottlieb, head of bullion trading at HSBC. Gottlieb said much of the liquidation of safe-haven positions was done. He said some selling was based on signals from computer systems, with a few funds selling gold short. "All the major hedge funds are pretty much on the sidelines right now," Gottlieb said. "Everybody wants to get the war out of the way and start again." Leonard Kaplan, president of Prospector Asset Management, wrote in a new report that while the financial markets continue to "dance solely to the rhythm of the war news and headlines," they "completely ignore all fundamental or statistical evidence," and "Progress of the coalition forces in their war, and each success brings the U.S. dollar higher, supports the equities markets, and discourages much of the ... buying of the precious metals," he said. But "those who still care about fundamentals have been sellers of the metals" even as it becomes "crystal clear that the economic condition of the USA and the world continues to deteriorate at a rather rapid pace, based upon economic statistics," Kaplan said. With that in mind, a quick closure of the war could force the gold market to the $315 to $320 level, he said, but he doesn`t expect those prices to hold for long. John Person, head financial analyst at Infinity Brokerage Services says gold is now trading in an area "where the returns outweigh the risks." He sees the current price as a good buy for longer-term investors.

"There will be some pull back in gold," Newmont Chief Executive Wayne Murdy said ahead of a gathering of world gold producers at the Australian Gold Conference on Monday. "That will last for a period of time, but the underlying fundamentals of supply and demand within our industry, low interest rates and a weakening U.S. dollar... those aren`t going to change," Murdy said. "There has been a premium, but that has deteriorated as the strength of the coalition forces has shown through," Murdy said. "I think we are going to see a lot of volatility in the market until that conflict is resolved, "and "We are still at a point where the gold price is below the average price of $350 all through the 1990s," Murdy said. "It`s just starting to recover," he added. Mr Murdy told reporters at the Australian Gold Conference in Perth, "But then you`ve got to settle down to what are the real fundamentals driving our markets and that will be positive for gold." Mr Murdy said it was gold`s underlying fundamentals, including a decrease in supply, the unwinding of hedge books and low interest rates, that pushed it past the psychologically important $300 an ounce and then $330. He said prices then became dominated by the "the whole Iraq situation." Also, "We feel that once, hopefully quickly, there is a resolution of that situation and we get to the true fundamentals that are driving the gold price, it should probably settle at a level consistent with where it is at now, maybe $330. "But then we think over the next several years there is a lot left in this gold price."

London gold was fixed this afternoon at $319.90 an ounce, up from $319.75 an ounce at the morning fixing. Gold fell on a surging U.S. dollar and stock market in anticipation of a quick end for the Saddam regime. "It`s a while since we had good news on a Monday. The latest headlines out of Iraq helped push the dollar higher," said Nick Parsons, currency strategist at Commerzbank in London. "Gold continues to weaken as the Iraq war proceeds towards its inevitable conclusion," John Reade, precious metals analyst at UBS Warburg said in a daily report. "Quite how far gold can fall will be determined by the degree to which the dollar will strengthen." Also, "Downward pressure continues to be exerted by the erosion of the uncertainty premium that was built into gold as a safe haven in the build up to the conflict in Iraq," said Barclays Capital. Analysts see further weakness ahead for gold prices, in tandem with US-led forces` advance in Baghdad. Barclays Capital expects the yellow metal to test 315 usd/oz this week and noted that an executive director of AngloGold has suggested gold could fall a further 15 usd/oz "before finding its floor". "Further positive news from the gulf is likely to hit gold further still," James Moore at theBulliondesk.com said. But he added that physical demand is likely to see a sharp increase if gold continues below 320 usd/oz.

Earlier spot gold closed at Gold fell $4.00 in Hong Kong to $319.95. "I can`t think of any reason to buy gold. Everything`s over," said Gordon Cheung, director of precious metals trading at Mitsui Bussan in Hong Kong. "The war is finished. They are going to start rebuilding soon. The (U.S.) economy is expected to improve. The story is over," Cheung said. Cheung said gold could fall another $10 in the near term as U.S. forces gain control of other parts of the capital. Spot gold could fall to $300 a troy ounce when the war on Iraq ends, London-based SG analyst Stephen Briggs said in a report Monday. SG is the corporate and investment banking arm of the Societe General Group. "In the short term, the fall of Baghdad could push prices lower to $300/oz," the report said. However, the SG report said gold`s current trend points to a test of $320/ oz, a level at which SG considers the war premium to have "completely disappeared" and representative of a short-term equilibrium price in line with fundamental factors. With the gold price rally originating from a confluence of external factors, the waning of the potency of some or any of these factors could hurt gold, the report said. It has to do with the feeling that perhaps the war is about to end soon, maybe in a few days or by the end of the week," said Paul Lee, director of precious metals group at Dresdner Bank. "The volumes (traded) are not very big, but people just need to get out very quickly, there`s a bit of panicky selling," Lee said. As long as optimism over a quick end to war continues to buoy the U.S. dollar, gold will continue to come under pressure, he said.

Gold demand in India, the world`s largest importer, has risen in the past few days and its buying is likely to intensify this week with a fall in prices after U.S. troops raided on Baghdad on Monday, traders said. The country`s gold demand, which increases during the wedding and festival seasons, is expected to remain firm until June. "There is a hectic buying activity in the market," said Narendra Singh Rathore of Kiran Jewellers from the northwestern city of Jaipur, a key importing centre. "People are comfortable with the current price level." The gold price fell lower on Monday. "But prices are unlikely to fall below $300 an ounce even after the end of the war as the U.S. economy and the dollar will remain under pressure due to the impact of the war," said H.P. Rajdev, a bullion trader in the western city of Ahmedabad. India imports an average 1.5 tonnes of gold every day to meet its annual domestic demand of more than 800 tonnes.

GEOPOLITICAL NEWS:

U.S. forces near Baghdad found a weapons cache of around 20 medium-range missiles equipped with potent chemical weapons, the U.S. news station National Public Radio reported on Monday. NPR, which attributed the report to a top official with the 1st Marine Division, said the rockets, BM-21 missiles, were equipped with sarin and mustard gas and were "ready to fire." It quoted the source as saying new U.S. intelligence data showed the chemicals were "not just trace elements." It said the cache was discovered by Marines with the 101st Airborne Division, which was following up behind the Army after it seized Baghdad`s international airport.

U.S. biological and chemical weapons experts believe they may have found an Iraqi storage site for weapons of mass destruction (WMD). A military source who declined to be identified said there were unconfirmed reports there could be sarin -- a highly lethal nerve agent that causes death by suffocation -- at the site. Iraq is believed to have used sarin against Kurdish Iraqis in the 1980s. "Our detectors have indicated something," said Maj. Ross Coffman, a public affairs officer with the U.S. 3rd Infantry.

U.S. forces burst into the heart of Baghdad on Monday and entered two palace complexes of President Saddam Hussein, but they said the operation was an armored raid not intended to hold territory. "We have seized the main presidential palace in downtown Baghdad...There are two palaces down there and we are in both of them," Lieutenant Colonel Pete Bayer told Reuters reporter Luke Baker, with the U.S. 3rd Infantry Division near the airport.

British military officers say they have found the body of "Chemical Ali," Iraqi President Saddam Hussein`s cousin and commander of the southern region. In what would be a major blow to Saddam`s power structure, Sky said British officers "have confirmed the death during a briefing earlier this morning...that`s the news we are getting, that he is in fact dead." U.S. and British forces earlier said Ali Hassan al-Majid was believed killed when U.S. planes bombed his house in Basra on Saturday.

Hong Kong hospitals are bracing for a possible tripling of cases of a deadly flu-like virus by the end of April, placing intense strain on a health system already struggling to cope with the mystery illness. As hospitals prepared for the worst the number of victims of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) leapt in the crowded city of seven million and Singapore tried to contain a fresh outbreak. China and Canada reported more deaths, while Vietnam said it had two new cases of an illness that has spread around the world, killing nearly 100 people, infecting more than 2,600 and slashing tourism in affected areas.

ECONOMIC NEWS:

The Fed said consumer credit outstanding expanded by $1.5 billion in February, less than the $2.3 billion advance that Wall Street analysts had been expecting. While revolving debt, which includes credit and charge card credit, gained by $5.4 billion, non-revolving debt dipped by $3.9 billion, its sharpest monthly decline since October 1991. Non-revolving debt includes closed-end loans, mainly for automobile purchases but also for tuition expenses and other items. "It`s mostly war and weather," said Michael Moran, chief economist with Daiwa Securities in New York. U.S. consumer spending was flat in February, the Commerce Department said in late March, adding to concerns that the buildup to the Iraq war earlier this year had punctured consumer confidence. In a recent speech, Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan expressed some worry about the household debt levels. "While analyses suggest that, overall, this level of debt is being serviced adequately, reports of nonbusiness bankruptcy filings reaching record highs in 2002 reveal that many consumers are experiencing significant financial crises," he said.

Stocks soared in early morning trading on Monday as U.S. forces barreled into the heart of Baghdad and boosted investor hopes the Iraq war could end soon. "The liberation of Iraq is obviously at hand and the market seems to be celebrating prospects of a post-war Iraq," said Phil Flynn, vice president and senior market analyst at Alaron Trading Corp. "The market is very optimistic that the `Butcher of Baghdad` is no more. Once Saddam Hussein is removed, the U.S. economy can come out of its hibernation."

Comment: Stocks and the U.S. dollar surged as gold and government bonds plunged as U.S. forces smashed into Baghdad signaling a quick end to the war in Iraq. Oil prices also tumbled lower in expectation of a quick end to the war in hopes that the result will be an increase of Gulf crude on the world market. The market has counted “its chickens before they hatched” so to speak. Of course it is absurd that the U.S. dollar and equities markets would surge on an already expected outcome of a war in Iraq, but that is what appears to be happening. That the individual investor has remained out of this market suggests something more going on behind the scenes. The costs associated with the war will have a negative impact on the U.S. dollar and grim economic data, surging unemployment and poor corporate earnings certainly do not provide a sound standing for a rising equities market. Military success is not likely to lead to an economic recovery. Much of these economic stumbling blocks and geopolitical surprises were not in focus ahead of the Iraq situation when gold charged up to $330 an ounce. Little else has changed other than a slight recovery in the U.S. dollar and more volatility in the equities markets. The same reasons for the initial rise in the gold price remains in place. The dollar is still weak and in a general downtrend and the economic data as well as corporate earnings continue to disappoint. Consider that the current account deficit runs at about 5% of GDP. This is the largest current account deficit the U.S. ever seen. The Bush administration estimates the cost of the war at $74.7 billion while the Congressional Budget Offices estimates the cost at about $134 billion. Many economists estimate the costs of the war and occupation ranging from $100 billion to well over $750 billion. The debt America owes abroad is about $2 trillion, which is about 20 percent of GDP. At the current rate, this debt is likely to cross 65 percent of U.S. GDP by 2010. The U.S. has seen foreign capital flee U.S. shores for the last three years along with declining revenues while at the same time floating an economic stimulus package with rebates and tax cuts. The dollar is at the breaking point. In the meantime the decline in the price of gold presents another buying opportunity for accumulation on the cheap.


- Jon H. Warner -


E-Mail the current report to a friend or to yourself.
__________________________
Jon Warner is a professional geologist with nearly 24 years in exploration and project development in both mining and petroleum. Mr. Warner brings to the table an impressive industry contact list, thorough knowledge of the precious metals and energy markets as well as a practical understanding of gold`s role in the private investment portfolio. His strong knowledge in these fields has been demonstrated at the USAGOLD Discussion Forum where he posts on a regular basis as Black Blade.



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[ThaiGuru]

April 7 – Gold $321.20 down $4 – Silver $4.40 up 1 cent

Arrogance Knows No Bounds

"Far better is it to dare mighty things, to win glorious triumphs, even though checkered by failure, than to rank with those poor spirits who neither enjoy much nor suffer much, because they live in a gray twilight that knows not victory nor defeat."
--Theodore Roosevelt

Throw the fundamentals out the window. Lola (The Gold Cartel) continues to get what she wants and that is to trash gold back into oblivion. Gold has now retreated below the levels it was trading at a year ago. Since that time, the fundamentals have improved every which way imaginable, not the least is that gold producers have covered forward sales by lifting many hundreds of tonnes of hedges. When gold fell in recent years, much of it was blamed on the producers. The reporting press can’t blame it on them now. Unfortunately, as MIDAS has stated for more than four years, nothing matters in a rigged market, as long as the riggers have the desire/intent and ammo to do their dirty deeds.

All we can do is to monitor the market action to determine what might be in store for us in the weeks to come. Thus far, there is no sign of let-up. The cabal is pounding away as ferociously as US forces are attacking Baghdad. What is disturbing is there isn’t any kind of reversal action even though gold is very oversold. The goons trash gold, as they did in the Access market last evening, and then just sit on it, day after day. We are almost back down to the levels when Treasury Secretary O’Neill quit. Right after that, gold shot almost straight up to $388. Enter Treasury Secretary Snow, who shortly thereafter met with the JP Morgan traders in London and before you know it, gold is trashed all the way back down again.

The good news is that silver and the gold shares continue to hold their lows. They are offering an indication that the cessation of the gold bombing should not be far off. As it stands now, The Gold Cartel and PPT’s arrogance knows no bounds. They are firing at will and seem not to care who notices. Then, you have those that who don’t want to notice at all. John Mauldin, president of Millennium Wave Advisors, LLC, a registered investment advisor, wrote the following last Friday, April 4th:

The Plunge Protection Team
By John Mauldin

The Plunge Protection Team A Hedge Fund`s Secret Wish Randomness and Responsibility

The entire article may be found at:
http://www.frontlinethoughts.com/printarticle.asp?id=mwo0404…

As one Café wag said, "it seems like we are always fighting old battles." He’s right. Maudlin Mauldin presents the banal establishment view there couldn’t be a PPT and that such notions are of the "conspiracy" (less than credible) crowd. The reverse conclusion occurs for anyone who is open-minded and has seriously studied the subject. Those that have followed GATA’s four year’s worth of evidence of a group of entities conspiring to hold down the price of gold will scoff at the naivete of this Wall Street apologist. An excerpt from his well distributed piece:

* You could not keep something of this size secret. Period. The orders would have to be entered somewhere. The theory is that Goldman Sachs or Citibank (or pick a firm) is part of this conspiracy. That means that multiple traders and officers would have to be in the know. You cannot mask trades of that size because it would essentially be the largest hedge fund in the world. Someone would spill the beans. Can you imagine the signing bonus from a book publisher if you could prove the existence of the PPT?

I hereby offer a $100,000 advance against 50% of the royalties to anyone who can "show me the trades." Give me names and dates. I will write the book, and we both become famous.

-END-

These two paragraphs alone boggle the mind and leave one wondering if Mauldin reads anything but the Wall Street Journal and Citigroup research reports, the ones that contributed so substantially to the NASDOG debacle.

*Once again from Bill Buckler’s Privateer column:

"There was an agreement between Japan and the US to take action co-operatively in foreign exchange, stocks and other markets if the markets face a crisis."

"With that official statement, Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary, Yasuo Fukuda, let the biggest global financial cat out of the bag of modern times. Mr Fukuda has officially stated that the world’s two largest financial and economic powers have agreed to "manipulate" the currency markets, their stock markets and all "other" markets - IF any of these markets face a "crisis". This statement by Mr Fukuda makes it bluntly and abundantly clear that there IS a global "crisis".

In other words, the United States and Japan agreed to conspire to rig the markets if there was a crisis. Certainly, war is a crisis if there ever was one when it comes to confidence issues, which is what markets are all about. Certainly, the PPT has been all over the stock market at pivotal moments over the past few weeks. Anyone watching the simultaneous lifting of the stock market and bashing of gold will attest to that. It happened too many times for any disinterested market observer not to take notice.

Neither GATA nor anyone else claims that an inordinate amount of individuals is intimately aware of PPT operations. When it comes to gold and the bullion banks, for example, it is probably only known to very few people. Most likely, the rigging originates from their funding operations, with the orders coming down to the gold traders from up high. Those traders fill the orders and send the fills upstairs for a numbered account. The floor people have no idea of who they are transacting for. Yes, the most senior management would be aware, but the people who are at that level in a money center bank have "played ball" all their lives. That is how they got where they are now. Those are the people making $3 million to $10 million, or more, per year. Most have families with kids whom they would like to go the same route. Do you think a mainstream, conservative, corporate lifer is going to speak out on the subject and jeopardize a career’s worth of work? Don’t be silly!

Mauldin comes across with a $100,000 bravado offer for someone to reveal to him how this all works. That, in and of itself, reveals his naivete. That’s like offering Michael Jordon $50,000 for a sneaker endorsement deal. Anyone who has concrete knowledge of this operation, and could furnish details, would get a laugh at that one. What, risk 1/10th or 1 100th of only one year’s pay to do a kiss and tell book, one that might not even get published, one he might not survive?

The Wall Street establishment crowd will not even allow the word GATA to be printed, much less publicize a book on our subject. Unless a mainstream publisher printed the book, it would not matter anyway because it wouldn’t even be reviewed by the right people. Few in the investment world would even know of its existence.

And I do mean survive! Many of you know that one of my colleagues, who has extensive Washington connections, has stopped writing about the gold market on a routine basis because of that kind of issue. This very person thought I was nuts to speak of a gold conspiracy when I first got into it more than four years ago. He stated publicly that I was wrong. Then, after the BOE auction, he looked into it further and realized GATA was right, but as he told me, "it is much bigger than you think." That was before GATA developed our evidence about ESF and Fed involvement in the manipulation of the price of gold. Once HE understood who was involved and why, he disappeared from the gold writing scene, the DIRECT insinuation being "bad things tend to happen to people who write about such goings-on."

Getting back to Japan. They readily admit to rigging their stock market with their own PPT (Working Group on Financial Markets) group. Voila:

Reuters
BOJ buys Y1.16 trln in shares from banks by Mar 31
Sunday April 6, 9:03 pm ET

TOKYO, April 7 (Reuters) - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) said on Monday it had bought a cumulative 1.16 trillion yen ($9.64 billion) of shares held by banks by March 31 under a programme aimed at reducing banks` exposure to stock market volatility.

The amount, shown on a financial statement released every 10 days, was up from 1.03 trillion yen as of March 20.
Under the share-buying scheme, which began on November 29, the central bank is buying shares from banks to protect them from market volatility and encourage them to dispose of bad loans.

In late March, the BOJ`s Policy Board decided to raise the amount it plans to buy to three trillion yen from an initial two trillion yen.

At the end of March 2002, Japan`s major banks held about 25 trillion yen of shares, mainly in companies that are clients. –END-

The United States and Japan have agreed to co-operate. better as (Mr. "head-in-the-sand") Does Mr. "head-in-the-sand" Mauldin believe the US has abrogated its agreement with Japan? The US financial press will not even speak of this agreement. That’s because it is true and very significant. That’s why GATA can’t get any of the financial establishment to debate us about the rigging of the gold price. They don’t even want it discussed because they cannot refute our four years worth of evidence of gold price manipulation. That’s why the US Government will not comment, and he US financial press will not deal with the subject: because it is THE TRUTH.

Mauldin is a flat-earther. Let him be. His type will never "get it," nor will they even try to.

Coincidentally, I am having dinner this evening with the person who has written the most eloquently about the PPT, Nelson Hultberg. Mauldin would do himself and his subscribers well to read Nelson’s work:


CORNERED RATS AND THE PPT

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_03/hultberg032603.html

and

USEFUL IDIOTS AND THE PPT

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_03/hultberg040203.html

One more thing. A colleague of mine has a money manager friend who has a trader that does business for the PPT. The firm he works for is one of the biggies. I have been getting feedback on these Working Group on Financial Market trades for a long time. It is not fiction. It is real. I don’t know whether he signed a confidentiality agreement (I am quite sure that most everyone directly involved in PPT operations has signed one), but the trader is surely not going to divulge his lucrative business for a lousy hundred grand.

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

Monday April 7, 2003

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $7.19, PM $5.56, with world gold at $321.25 and $319.25. Well above legal import point. Reuters reports this morning:

"Gold demand in India, the world`s largest importer, has risen in the past few days and its buying is likely to intensify this week with a fall in prices after U.S. troops raided on Baghdad on Monday, traders said…."There is a hectic buying activity in the market," said Narendra Singh Rathore of Kiran Jewellers from the northwestern city of Jaipur, a key importing centre"

and the Times of India, in an unusual Saturday comment on gold, said:

"Gold prices recovered on the bullion market on Saturday on revival of buying by retail investors at prevailing low levels and closed with a notable gain of Rs.50 at Rs.5160 per ten gram."

This tenor of comment is quite unusual and in the past has been associated with major lows on the gold price, like the summer of 1999.

Contrary to some reports, notably Dow Jones, gold did not weaken this morning on the TOCOM open, which now takes place at 8PM NY time, but slumped very abruptly an hour before. The observant UBS Warburg notes:

"In Asia, gold opened about three dollars lower than the NY close…with the Access selling prior to the Asian open the major reason for the fall."

TOCOM traders got the message, of course: volume dropped 45% from Friday to the equivalent of 19,497 Comex lots, but the weaker yen took all the stress: the active contract actually rose 2 yen. Gold in $US was down $4.35 from the Friday NY close. Also, there was no liquidation: open interest was down only the equivalent of 59 Comex lots. Japan was not gold’s problem early today: those were caused by the sort of operator who chooses to sell heavily on ACCESS before any major buying market opens. (Volume in NY on Friday was 26,527; open interest rose 246 lots.)

A small note of encouragement for gold’s beleaguered friends appeared on Friday evening in the form of a recommendation by Richard Band, the veteran Newsletter writer, on his "Profitable Investing" hotline to purchase Newmont. Band, a conservative value player heavily influenced in his timing by contrary opinion concepts, played gold shares rather successfully in the 1980s, but has not been in the area since getting out more or less at the top in 1987. It is a carefully considered move:

""The pieces are falling into place for another run-up in gold and gold-mining shares.

For the past eight weeks, the precious metals complex has been sinking.... My chart studies indicate that the recent pullback is ending -- and that the bull is about to snort again, probably soon after the Allies declare victory in Iraq".

"Longer term, the outlook for gold is favorable because the Federal Reserve is desperately pumping cash into the banking system in an effort to stave off recession and deflation. This policy has already weakened the dollar, and will continue to do so. As the dollar softens against other currencies, global investors who doubt the inflation-fighting resolve of the U.S. government will shift a portion of their assets into gold".
(See http://www.rband.com )

The Large spec CFTC position remains puzzlingly long at 24,367 contracts, shading only moderately (5163 lots) in the last reporting period. (And open interest since last Tuesday fell only another 2,160 lots despite another $9 drop in the gold price.) This is odd behavior for a community usually envisaged to be mainly technically-orientated and trend following: it will be remembered that the situation provoked some astonishment last week. The least that can be said is that the last – and technically most damaging - $30 or so down in gold stemmed from actions from outside the Comex speculative community.

JB

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

After a euphoric morning, the US stock market sold off late and HARD. The DOW gave up 200 points, closing at 8300, up only 23. The DOG failed to hold 1400 AGAIN, closing at 1389, up 6 and around 38 off its highs. NOT GOOD!!

Jay nails it. From: J Taylor`s Gold & Technology Stocks Weekly Hotline Transcript

We are indebted to Carl Swenlin for sharing his insights and statistics free of charge at:

http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/Swenlin.html.

We highly recommend you subscribe to Carl’s paid for charting service (see details below) but he also updates investors weekly with PE ratios for the S&P 500. At the present time, the S&P 500 is selling at 31.39 times earnings. That is an astoundingly high PE ratio which proves my point that despite the trillions of dollars of paper losses in the stock market, Americans are not yet convinced the stock market is a bad place to put your money. Yet that must be and always is the consensus opinion at bear market bottoms. As Carl points out, historically a PE ratio of 20 has been considered the boundary for overvalued. What does a PE ratio of 20 really represent? It is equal to an Earnings Yield of 5% which means that to the extent you can believe a company’s accounts, it is "paying" you, either in retained earnings and/or in the form of dividends, an annual return of 5% on your money.

A more normal or median PE ratio has historically been around 15 times, which means that your stock investment is "paying" you 6.67% when retained earnings and dividends are combined. However, the PE ratio at bear market bottoms are usually below 10. A PE ratio of 10 translates into an Earnings yield of 10%. Major blue chip stocks usually see their PE ratios bottoming somewhere between 5 and 10 at bear market bottoms, following the capitulation phase.

The S&P 500 closed at 878.85 on Friday. Its earnings per share are $28, leaving that index with a PE ratio of 31.39, equal to an earnings yield of 3.2%. If the S&P were selling at 15 times earnings, it would be at 420 or 52% below the its current level. But to get to a level that would represent a bear market bottom, the S&P would have to decline to below 280 or more than 68% below current share price levels for the S&P 500 stocks! No matter what happens in Iraq, unless military victory can some how result in a massive increase in earnings for American companies (not even the most blatant market optimists are suggesting that), it is hard to see how our equities markets are not in for a major decline even though trillions of dollars have already been lost. And we think the existing economic environment provides fertile grounds for a resumption of the bear market, once the war is over, no matter what the longer term outcome of that conquest may be.

-END-

Most of us live on a different planet than the money manager crowd that continually appears on CNBC. Over and over they state the P/E ratio is around 17 and the market is not over valued. Of what do they speak – manufactured future earnings that never materialize?

Just as the gold fundamentals get better and better as each week goes by, the stock market fundamentals deteriorate. How long can the Wall Street bulls get away with their smoke and mirrors tout of "the market?" Once the illusion about the positives of the ending of the Iraq war subsides, I suspect not long at all. It`s called REALITY!

The recent US economic news has been dreadful. It’s not very good in England either. From the BBC, April 7:

Shock fall in retail sales

UK retail sales have put in their worst performance in more than a decade, according to new figures from the CBI.
Retailers reported sales falling at their fastest rate since July 1992, the CBI`s monthly survey found.
The bosses group blamed worries about the war, impending tax rises and concerns about the housing market. -END-

When will the gold nightmare end? GATA’s Mike Bolser believes the crooks don’t have that much time left:

Hi Sid:
I`m attaching my article "Gold and Gold Receivables in the Euro Area for your review.

As for being 100% sure of the gold cartel running out of gold, here`s is my reasoning:

(1)The BIS Triennial Survey records shows a reduction by half of central bank gold. (2)Individual central bank records reveal a drop of 50% to 70% in physical gold holdings. (3) The BIS "Held in bars" category as reported in their annual report shows a drop of half.

Therefore, I have concluded that there is a non-trivial gold bullion drainage from central bank vaults...that includes the US.

"Running out" could take over a year if the parties choose to drain the reserves to zero. Other than France, I`m not aware of other central banks that have stopped the practice selling/leasing gold. Although this situation could change as a result of the many war frictions.

Best, Mike

A couple of times in the past week I thought the worst was over for the gold bashing. Not so. Nonetheless, the end of the gold trashing must be close at hand. The gold fundamentals are all flashing BUY signals. They could not be much better. The risk/reward for buying gold is extremely favorable.

The shares continue to scream, "BUY ME!!!" They rallied late again and are just not going down with bullion. The XAU closed 63.82, down .82. The HUI finished the day at 119.51, up 1.03.

The gold shares remain a historic investment opportunity. The past two months have been grueling, but you know what they say, "no pain, no gain." I could have done without this pain, but the reward will be so significant,it will prove to be worth it many times over.

GOT TO BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

[ThaiGuru]

11:43p ET Monday, April 7, 2003

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Nelson Hultberg has written the definitive reply to John
Mauldin`s essay denying the possibility of a
"Plunge Protection Team." If Hultberg`s essay isn`t proof of the PPT, it is an excellent collection of evidence. The
essay is titled "Is the PPT an Urban Myth?" and you can find it at Gold-Eagle here:

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_03/hultberg040903.html

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.interfax.ru/show_one_news.html?lang=EN&tz=0&tz_fo…

Finance & Business

08.04.2003 10:21:04

Russia ups gold, forex reserves by $2.46 bln in March
MOSCOW. April 8 (Interfax) - Russia`s gold and foreign currency reserves increased by $2.464 billion in March, to $55.525 billion from $53.061 billion.

The Central Bank of Russia reported that foreign currency reserves increased to $51.79 billion from $49.326 billion and the volume of gold remained unchanged at $3.735 billion.

Gold and foreign currency reserves increased by $7.732 billion in the first quarter (as of August 1 the reserves are calculated so as not to include Central Bank short-term foreign currency liabilities).

[ThaiGuru]

[Der_Glueckliche]

..wenn ich mir die marktschreierische Werbung fuer Gold so anschaue, dann glaube ich irgendwie nicht mehr so an einen grossen Anstieg. Fallen wird`s aber auch nicht so, hoffe ich.

[ThaiGuru]

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.handelsblatt.com/hbiwwwangebot/fn/relhbi/sfn/buil…

HANDELSBLATT, Dienstag, 08. April 2003, 14:29 Uhr

Saudi-Arabien will Produktion nicht begrenzen

Bei der Opec schrillen die Alarmglocken

Die Organisation Erdöl exportierender Länder (Opec) plant für den 24. April in Wien ein Krisentreffen. Dabei wird es nicht nur um die üblichen Routinefragen wie die Höhe der Förderung und das angestrebte Preisniveau gehen.



HB/dpa WIEN. Vielmehr schrillen wegen des absehbaren Endes des Irakkrieges die Alarmglocken. Denn wenn der Irak nach 13 Jahren wieder ins offizielle Quotensystem dieses Kartells mit einer erhöhten Produktion zurückkehrt, dürfte es unter den dann elf Mitgliedern einen tiefen Streit um die jeweiligen Anteile an der Gesamtförderung geben, sind sich alle Experten einig.

Vor allem Saudi Arabien, das mit einer offiziellen Förderquote von acht Millionen Barrel am Tag mit Abstand wichtigste Opec-Mitglied ist, dürfte sich weigern, die eigenen Ölhähne wieder weiter zuzudrehen. In den letzten Jahren hatte das Königreich nicht nur die durch Krieg und Sanktionen ausgefallenen Ölmengen des Iraks übernommen, sondern war auch immer dann zur Stelle, wenn andere Opec- Staaten wie Venezuela oder Nigeria durch innere Unruhen weniger Öl exportieren konnten.

Saudi Arabien zeigt aber keine Anzeichen, zu Gunsten des Iraks seine Produktion wieder auf rund sechs Millionen Barrel am Tag zu begrenzen. Das entspräche der Menge vor dem Austritt des Iraks aus dem Opec-Quotensystem. Zuletzt hatte Bagdad rund zwei Millionen Barrel gefördert, dürfte aber mittelfristig wie das Nachbarland Iran mit rund 3,5 Millionen Barrel wieder in der Opec-Quote vertreten sein, lauten die Branchenschätzungen. Daneben wollen die Opec-Länder Algerien und Nigeria ihren Quotenanteil ausweiten. „Da zeichnet sich heftiger Streit ab“, prognostiziert Klaus Matthies vom Hamburger Welt-Wirtschafts-Archiv (HWWA).

„Ich sehe nicht unbedingt ein Auseinanderbrechen der Opec“, widerspricht Matthies Voraussagen von Ölexperten, der Irak werde das Kartell verlassen und ihm damit den Todesstoß versetzen. Denn auch dieses Land habe Interesse an einem hohen Ölpreis, da nur mit Hilfe der Exporterlöse das Land wieder aufgebaut werden könne. Und dass die USA als Ziel anstrebten, Öl zum Billigpreis bereit zu stellen, glaube er nicht. Denn die USA sind selbst der weltweit drittgrößte Erdölproduzent und daher nicht an Niedrigstpreisen interessiert.

Mit 25 Dollar je Barrel könnten die Industrieländer leben, meint der Experte. Opec-Öl hatte zuletzt am Montag 24,91 Dollar gekostet.

[ThaiGuru]

Grundig stellt Weichen für Insolvenz

Nürnberg/München (dpa) - Der existenzbedrohte Elektronikkonzern Grundig stellt die Weichen in Richtung Insolvenz. Der Aufsichtsrat berief den in Insolvenzfällen erfahrenen Rechtsanwalt Eberhard Braun zum neuen Vorstandschef. Vorgänger Hans-Peter Kohlhammer muss gehen.

Nach einer Sitzung in München schloss der Aufsichtsrat nicht aus, dass es zum Insolvenzverfahren kommen werde.

Unternehmenssprecher Holm Kilbert sagte, die so genannte Insolvenz in Eigenverwaltung sei eine der Möglichkeiten, die derzeit überlegt würden. Bei diesem Verfahren wird das Management von einem Sachwalter kontrolliert, hat aber größeren operativen Spielraum. Man spreche aber auch mit möglichen Investoren und mit den Banken, sagte Kilbert. Entscheidungen würden bis Ende der Woche erwartet. Grundig ist hoch verschuldet und verfügt kaum über Eigenkapital.

Braun wickelt unter anderem die Insolvenzen des baden- württembergischen FlowTex-Konzerns und des oberbayerischen Regionalflugzeugbauers Fairchild Dornier ab. Er bringe langjährige Erfahrung in vergleichbaren Unternehmenssituationen mit, die «für die anstehenden Umgestaltungen nutzbar gemacht werden» solle, hieß es.

Der Aufsichtsrat erklärte, man halte auch nach der Absage der türkischen Beko-Gruppe an dem Ziel fest, einen finanzkräftigen Investor zu finden. «Es bestehen auch aussichtsreiche Kontakte zu weiteren Interessenten», hieß es. Beko hatte die geplante Grundig- Übernahme am Montag überraschend platzen lassen. Grundig-Eigner und Aufsichtsratschef Anton Kathrein hatte an der Sitzung nicht teilgenommen.

Der Vorstand werde das Ziel, den technologischen Kern des Unternehmens und seiner wichtigen Tochtergesellschaften zu erhalten, weiter verfolgen, «um unter Einbindung von Investoren eine markt- und wettbewerbsfähige Struktur zu schaffen», teilte die Grundig AG weiter mit. Mit dem Wechsel an der Vorstandsspitze wolle man den «strategisch veränderten Rahmenbedingungen» auch personell Rechnung tragen.

Kohlhammer stand seit Mai 2001 an der Spitze von Grundig. Er werde dem Vorstand weiterhin insbesondere bei Gesprächen mit Investoren beratend zur Verfügung stehen, hieß es. Die weiteren Vorstandsmitglieder Günter Moissl und Werner Saalfrank sollen im Amt bleiben.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
erschienen am 08.04.2003 um 15:20 Uhr
© WELT.de

[ThaiGuru]

Nabil spricht von Manipulation der Märkte, und baut erste Gold Positionen auf!



http://www.wallstreet-online.de/ws/news/news/main.php?&actio…

"Ich habe angefangen erste Positionen in Gold aufzubauen und hoffe, dass das Edelmetall noch etwas zurück kommt, damit ich weitere Positionen zu bessern Preisen in den Markt bringe."

"Schon Jesse Livermore schilderte die Manipulation der Märkte Anfang des 20ten Jahrhunderts. Besonders schlimm ist die Manipulation am Ende der Bärenmarktrallyes."

[talvi100]

Hat der gute Mann nicht erst vor kurzen das Handtuch geworfen !

Grüße Talvi

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.time.com/time/asia/news/daily/0,9754,441615,00.ht…

Beijing`s SARS Attack

Doctor and party member insists there are many more cases than officials will admit

BY SUSAN JAKES / BEIJING


A facemask-wearing couple pass a billboard in Beijing. How many cases are unreported?

Tuesday, April 8, 2003

A physician at Beijing`s Chinese People`s Liberation Army General Hospital (No. 301) in a signed statement provided to TIME, says that at one Beijing hospital alone, 60 SARS patients have been admitted of whom seven have died. That indicates the number of patients infected with SARS in Beijing may be significantly higher than those totals made public by China`s Ministry of Health. Last Thursday Chinese Minister of Health Zhang Wenkang announced to the press that China`s capital had seen just 12 cases of SARS of whom three had died. Today`s edition of the official China Daily put the number of SARS infections in Beijing at 19 with four dead.

weiter...
http://www.time.com/time/asia/news/daily/0,9754,441615,00.ht…

[konradi]

...ja,hat er, - aber er war immerhin so ehrlich es einzugestehen. da wollen wir doch mal hoffen, das er jetzt richtig liegt ...

[ThaiGuru]

http://news.goldseek.com/MichaelWilson/1049821056.php

Gold Crisis

By: Michael L. Wilson

The alleged manipulation of the International gold price is not a simple matter that the economist, the individual investor, or the hard working American citizen should take lightly. The average American remains rather naive when it comes to his or her savings and investing. Most believe that the dollars they work hard to earn today will be able to send little Johnny or Suzy to college tomorrow. For the last decade or so the American stock market has been a financial zenith for those who saw the signs and were willing to take the plunge. For the rest of us a savings account and a few bonds here and there did the trick. We were not interested in speculation, nor were we too keen or inspired with the fact that money could be made so quickly and seemingly so easily. We are the ones who put in 8,10, and 12-hour shifts. We are the ones that attend the universities. We are the ones where capital preservation weighs more heavily than abeyant speculation.

We are concerned with simply the security and preservation of our capital, so we would be able to send Suzy to college or save for that rainy day.

If you ask the average American what the difference is between money and currency they will stare at you with bewilderment and answer with a question "Aren’t they the same thing"? Allow me to explain what I believe could possibly be the nail in the coffin of the U.S. and the collective global economy if the average Joe’s and Jane’s, you and I, don’t start asking the important questions and getting some honest answers and soon.

As dollars begin to be dishoarded by those countries that use them as a hedge against their currencies, the U.S. economy suffers. No one hears in U.S. news that these countries have begun to dishoard their dollar reserves and invested elsewhere. These countries are becoming keenly aware of what is being done collusively to cook the books and report abysmal numbers here in is this country. The average Joe goes to work, pays his mortgage, and puts the rest into a savings account. Even though the long term worth of that savings account is rather questionable knowing that current intrest rates barely cover the rate of dollar depreciation. Today, having a savings account and not hedging it with something of intrinsic value, virtually guarantees the eventual depreciation of your purchasing power in a fiat world. Common sense is never putting all of your eggs in one basket, I fear many do. Please allow me to illustrate in the following paragraphs the current and ongoing "economic war" that is being staged behind the war on terrorism. This war is the war on gold and it’s followers. This is a war against the independant thinkers and those who have studied the histories and realize the consequences of irrationality. This is about what came before and what will eventually come after. This is the Unparalleled Standard.

The Unparalleled Standard

Carefully hidden, guillotined gold sheets, coins, plates, and ingots have been many times in history the difference between life and death, war and peace, poverty and prosperity. To the bride in Calcutta, gold is the pith of independence and security in the midst of an uncertain marriage, a financial, economic, or natural disaster. Handcrafted 22 Karat bangles, necklaces, or 10 tola bars minted in Zurich and sometimes illegally smuggled in from Dubai, are handed down from generation to generation remaining unchanged for millennia. To the diligent African farmer, pure gold beads and baubles allow him or her to save in something other than the local currency, which in many an African country, has a history of crumbling with each new political assemblage. The European has always relied many times only on gold. The English having a defacto gold standard beginning in 1717 and a full legal standard from 1821. The French and their franc, the Portuguese and their escudo, the Dutch and their guilder. All originally some of the most powerful and globally accepted gold coins now turned paper. Those who were able to put away gold and silver coins during the German hyper inflation following World War I, came out ahead and maintained not only their purchasing power but the preservation of their wealth.

In more modern times, it was the independent Japanese citizen who removed more than 64,000 ounces of gold from the world markets due to many unsuccessful attempts by the Japanese government to "re-inflate" it’s economy. Gold is financial independence in the hands of any and all that realize and understand that 6,000 years of immutable credibility cannot be refuted by any measure we would care to even consider.

The historical precedent teaches us that every civilization in history that terminated it’s gold or bimetallic system or standard (i.e. gold and silver backing), and allowed fiat money to become the basis of commerce, disintegrated over time just like the fibrous paper in circulation today. Usually only resuming the honest system after an economic catastrophe has occurred. Fiat "money" always depreciates into what it is essentially worth. Pesos, Dollars, Euros, and Yen might as well be sanitary toilettes, if they are only backed by the sheer human faith in the issuing government to remain honest.

There is much ingenuity, sweat, and capital that go into the production of this essential element. Wall Street financial advisors have foolishly claimed gold to be a "barbaric relic" from the past that has no future as a monetary store of value. Analysts have been widely known to sway investors away from gold and into paper assets paying them bigger commissions. Usually they claim that the latter classes of investments are at an all time low and they can only go up. People these days will say anything to get paid. Current ratios show that the U.S. stock market is no where near the bottom, yet investors continually pour in hoping for that rebound. Gold is a commodity that has been in a 20-year depression. It is an element that is essential to many facets of modern life and in many areas irreplaceable. Gold is currently facing an increasing supply/demand shortfall and is being artificially suppressed by entities that trade in more paper than Charmin. Based on these factors alone it would not be too far fetched to conclude that gold is heading toward an explosion in its market price if and when the derivative situation is halted.

Gold and silver have been the ONLY universal forms of money that are accepted anywhere and without qualm, from Finland to Sudan, São Paulo to Moscow, the yellow gleam of gold is deeply imbedded into the human psyche.

It is the governments that seem to have the averted taste toward gold. Gold forces governments to be honest, accountable, and reciprocal. Gold limits their ability to just print and spend, forever bludgeoning themselves into debt behind the facade of "expanding" credit for its citizens. Congressman Ron Paul himself stated that "monetary inflation is a hidden tax levied more on the poor and those on fixed incomes than the wealthy, the bankers, or the corporations". Even the peon knows that the more you have of anything the less it will be worth.

Gold can be melted, dissolved in highly corrosive mixtures of acids, buried, eaten and bowelled out, recovered from ocean depths, and still has value. One well known 18th dynasty Egyptian pharaoh, was buried in a solid gold coffin weighing 225 lbs., the value of the gold alone is $1,296,000 based on a market price of $360. The same gold buried today will be here 100, 1 000, 10 000, 100 000 years from now and will still be valuable. History has proven this fact. One cannot say the same for the 1924 deutsche mark, the 1920 dollar, or the 1995 peso.

The history behind and of, the Great German inflation, the cancellation of the U.S. gold backing, or the Great Mexican Depression has been ingrained into the psyches of those who lived through it and forever recorded into the histories. History will continually recapitulate itself because people do not learn from past mistakes. The people remember but learning seems to be the challenge of the politicians and governments.

Gold has a history that spans across the entire scope of human existence. The first metal known, forged, and implemented by mankind was gold, not copper. Cherished by thousands of cultures as a gift from the heavens, a transportable means of wealth, and most importantly an accurate barometer by which everything else is measured. Gold is the oldest word in the English language still in continuous use today. The most referred to element in the bible. The most sought after commodity throughout history after food, shelter, and land was gold. If it were not for gold’s existence, the daily items that we take for granted could not have been conceived.

It is with this sunny yellow metal that we are able to have computers, and dependable circuitry for electronic equipment. It is gold’s superb reflectivity of infrared rays that allow us to have UV protected sunglasses, hand held lasers for surgical procedures, or solar energy panels that provide environmentally friendly electricity. It is due to gold’s unchallenged malleability, ductility, and electrical conductivity that we are able to have microchips that get smaller and faster year by year. The same aforementioned properties make nanotechnology a viable possibility. Non-heat dependent catalytic converters, controlled radiation dispersal through cancer-fighting implants, safety airbags, effective heat dissipation of aircraft engine alloys, food-freshness sensors, digital data storage, satellites and telecommunications equipment, high temperature laboratory thermometers, permanent and semi-permanent dental partials. The windows of office buildings are coated with a microscopically thin layer of gold that reflects 92% of infrared heat, cutting energy costs by 40%. Defrost systems for car windows, Ayurvedic medicine, surgical implants, chemical catalysts, and chances are that your stereo equipment has gold plated contacts allowing for the free flow of electrons providing the best sound quality. The stuff even protects Air-Force One, which is equipped with goldplated reflectors. These reflectors confuse an incoming missile`s heat-seeking signal, making it difficult for a missile`s guidance systems to focus on their target.

Free Market Manipulation

It seems that even in this age of BA’s, MA’s, and Ph.D’s the general populace still does not seem understand much about such an integral part that gold plays in world commerce. Why has the U.S. dollar has lost 95% of its purchasing power since 1930? Most do not even know what a "Dollar" actually is, as defined by the US constitution, which dictates that "No State shall make anything but gold and silver coin a tender of payment of debts". Unfortunately, the Founders of this nation wrote "states" rather than "federal government," and the consequence of that unforeseen error has allowed our federal government to produce ever more worthless "money." Look at history for the legacy that fiat money has left for modernity to learn from. Rome, Germany, and more recently Argentina and Japan, what is next? Brazil is teetering, and the US is well on its way if the only thing the geniuses in office can do is fill American heads with propaganda and talks of war. The IMF can only do so much to stave off economic disasters, and even they are handing out more monopoly money.

You must know and understand the history of your money, you should know that the bills that you carry in your wallet are not money, but a currency. A currency is different from money in that a currency is simply a certificate of deposit or a ticket of redemption for a fungible tangible asset ie. gold or silver. In 1933 President Roosevelt, under a national declared state of emergency, confiscated under penalty of a $10,000 fine and imprisonment, gold coins and bars and made it illegal for Americans to own gold. A right that would not be reinstated for another 40 years. The confiscation, melting and the raising of the official gold price allowed congress to inflate the US economy and expand government. The severe consequence of that one action paved the way for the drastic year after year downward fluctuation of the dollar. Which has caused many of the economic and social problems that we are faced with today.

The history and the uses of this most precious metal is fascinating, but the recent tribulations in its market price are little more than a complete shame.

Gold has been degraded to the status of a simple commodity by the U.S. government. The U.S. government, in collusion European banks manipulate its price downward to keep vast amounts of capital out of the metals and into their currencies. This would not be such a big deal if the currencies could be redeemed for gold. The vast majority of Americans do not realize what this means for them or their families. American investors like helpless sheep are encouraged to buy while the insiders are selling. If the stock market is indeed rigged like the gold market, the effects will be devastating. The average American will loose their nest eggs that the fast talking brokers have promised them.

The reason for manipulation? According to the GATA (Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee) Suppressing the price of gold has made it a cheap source of capitol for New York bullion banks, which borrow it for as little as 1 percent of its value per annum. Gold is borrowed from the central banks and sold, the proceeds are invested in the financial markets in securities that have much greater rates of return. As long as the price of gold remains low in this "carry trade" it is a financial bonanza for the few at the expense of the many, including the gold producing countries of the world, most of which are poor. If the price of gold were allowed to rise, the effective interest rate on gold loans would become prohibitive. Suppressing the price of gold gives a false impression of the U.S. dollar’s strength as an international reserve asset and a false reading of inflation in the Unites States. In short too much gold is being consumed at too cheap a price. Massive amounts of derivatives are being used to suppress the gold price. If this situation is not corrected soon, there will be a gold derivative credit and default crisis of epic proportions that will threaten the solvency of the largest international banks and the world standing of the dollar. The longer the gold price is artificially held down, the bigger the eventual banking crises will be.

References

Browne, Harry. Author. 1974. You Can Profit from a Monetary Crisis. Macmillan

Coombs, Charles. Author. 1981. Gold & Other Precious Metals. New York: Morrow.

Eichengreen and Flandreau. Editors. 1997. The Gold Standard in Theory and History: Second Edition.

Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee. Inc. Murphy, Powell, Straud, and Feather. Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc. 7 Louisa Road Manchester, Conn. 06043-7541 USA

Stott, Don. Author. 2001. Consequences: Many Times Unintended

World Gold Council, The. www.gold.org



Michael L. Wilson - [e-mail]

Sophomore at Louisiana State University


The reader hereby has my permission to copy, print, modify or freely redistribute all or any portion of this article free of charge or permission for educational purposes. However, please email me to inform me how you have modified and/ or changed the information contained here. I am unhinged and widely open to comments, criticisms, or concerns. Please feel free to contact me with any or all questions concerning this article.


-- Posted Tuesday, April 8 2003

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.usagold.com

The Afternoon Gold Report...

by Jon Warner

April 8, 2003 (usagold.com)

New York spot gold settled higher at $322.10 an ounce up 90 cents an ounce from yesterday’s close. "Gold benefited from the war trade," which also included the purchase of other commodities like oil and bonds and the selling of equities, said analyst Michael Dudas of Bear Stearns. "That has reversed itself over the past three weeks, with the vigorous market rallies in equities," he said. "Investors will still be looking for more exposure than less," said Bear Stearns` Dudas. "They have a feeling that gold will improve in price and they`re willing to take the risk." Many traders continue to focus on geopolitical events. "The reason why we were off the lows was because of the chemicals story," said Robert Gottlieb, head of bullion trading at HSBC. If true, the finds could be the "smoking gun," proving U.S. allegations used to justify the war that Iraq was hiding such weapons from United Nations inspectors. Gottlieb said much of the liquidation of safe-haven positions was done. He said some selling was based on signals from computer systems, with a few funds selling gold short. "All the major hedge funds are pretty much on the sidelines right now," Gottlieb said. "Everybody wants to get the war out of the way and start again."

London gold was fixed this afternoon at $324.30 an ounce, up from $322.30 an ounce at the morning fixing. "On rumors of the death of Saddam Hussein, or on reports of U.S. progress in Baghdad, prices knee-jerk lower (down to $319 to $320 an ounce), but overall the price is holding firm," Merlin Marr-Johnson, an analyst HSBC in London, told clients Tuesday. In general, "the gold price is nearing the bottom of its range," he said, noting that physical demand helps provide support around $320 an ounce. "Gold has benefited from the dollar`s inability to hold onto recent gains and a rapid stalling in the equity markets," said Kevin Crisp, analyst at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein. Dresdner KW`s Crisp said there were already signs that lower prices combined with the peak wedding season in India are leading consumers into the jewellery shops and show rooms in the world`s largest gold market. Rhona O`Connell at the World Gold Council noted that the gold market has been somewhat oversold and this has now been partially unwound. "We continue to expect a move toward the next support level of 315 usd/oz in the coming weeks, around which level the last substantial physical buying from the Indian subcontinent was seen," said Ingrid Sternby at Barclays Capital.

Earlier Gold rose $1.90 in Hong Kong to $321.85. Gold steadied in Asia on Tuesday as hoped-for relief rallies in regional equity markets failed to materialise and the U.S. dollar repeatedly came under pressure, dealers said. "So much depends on the headlines, on the pictures on TV screens, but to my mind it looks as though equity markets are not yet fully willing to embrace that relief rally," said Robert Rennie, senior currency strategist at Westpac Banking Corp in Sydney. "We bounced yesterday because the Dow dropped 200 points in the late session, but really I don`t see any news that can help gold move up," said Ellison Chu, senior manager at Standard Bank London in Hong Kong. Demand from traditional consumers of physical gold in India, the Middle East and Asia kicked in as prices fell, helping slow gold`s descent. The $320 level now seems to be reinforced by bargain hunting from buyers from these geopolitical hot spots. Leon Esterhuizen (Johannesburg), analyst with Investec Securities Ltd., agrees that gold has some support at the moment and that he would be surprised to see bullion fall below $300. But the situation isn`t clear cut. Even with a possible early end to the war, he said he thought the U.S. economy was far from stable and that this would support the gold price by increasing its risk premium.

GEOPOLITICAL NEWS:

U.S. forces staged an explosive show of supremacy in central Baghdad on Tuesday, blasting government targets virtually at will after trying to kill President Saddam Hussein and his sons with four huge bombs. Tanks, backed by ground attack planes and helicopters, pushed about 2 miles into the nerve center of Saddam`s administration, meeting scattered resistance from fighters with assault rifles and rocket-propelled grenades. The U.S. military said it was expanding its presence in Baghdad and had met no organized resistance.

A U.S-led civil administration will start work in Iraq on Tuesday when a team of about 20 officials deploys in southern Umm Qasr town to assess humanitarian needs, a spokesman said. "This deployment is to assess humanitarian aid needs and to set up a dialogue with the local population," said a spokesman for the administration, known as the Office for Reconstruction and Humanitarian Assistance (ORHA), which is currently based in Kuwait.

On Wednesday, the U.N. Security Council meets to discuss a response to North Korea`s decision 89 days earlier to pull out of the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Pyongyang says it will ignore what the council says and would consider sanctions -- highly unlikely at this stage -- a declaration of war. On Thursday, North Korea`s withdrawal from the NPT becomes official with the end of a formal 90-day notice period. North Korea has said the notice period did not apply to it.

ECONOMIC NEWS:

Retail sales fell 0.5 percent in the April 5 week, after falling 1.4 percent the preceding week, Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi and UBS Warburg said in a joint report. Compared with the prior year, sales for the week edged down 0.3 percent, hurt by an Easter-related boost in sales during the comparable week last year. "The confluence of the lingering `CNN war effect,` and less-than-favorable spring weather so far in many parts of the country ... chipped away at consumer demand over the latest week," the report said.

Instinet Research said in its weekly Redbook report that sales at major U.S. chain stores fell 2.5 percent in the week ended April 5 compared with the same week a year ago. Sales declined 1.9 percent in the week ended April 5 compared with the previous month. This year Easter falls in April rather than in March, postponing peak demand for spring clothing by at least three weeks. "Two weeks into spring, a snowstorm, freezing rain and heavy winds fell on parts of the Northeast and Midwest ... affecting regional sales totals," the report said.

Wholesale inventories rose 0.3 percent, after being unchanged in January, the Commerce Department said. Sales rose an anemic 0.5 percent after gaining 1.4 percent in January, pulled down by the biggest drop in wholesale auto sales since December 1997. February`s gain in inventories was bigger than expected. Auto inventories were up 1.2 percent after declining 0.8 percent in January. Inventories on durable goods, those items intended to last for several years, rose 0.7 percent, the biggest increase since June 2000, reflecting the biggest monthly falloff of sales in these items since September 2001.


Comment: Gold gained as interest is renewed on the back of a weaker U.S. dollar and stagnant equities markets. With the war in Iraq coming to a conclusion investors are once again forced to face the realities of a deteriorating global economy and weakness in the equities markets as corporate earnings continue to disappoint. Some gold traders remain nervous on what may happen if investors continue to focus on geopolitical events rather than the health of the economy. However, many believe that gold has been oversold and earlier in the New York trading session shorts began to cover their positions supporting the price of gold. The shift of tangible wealth from west to east continues. The Indian Wedding Season is picking up and it is reported that physical buying interest is gaining. Physical buying interest regained strength in most of Asia as the gold price came under pressure when western funds and speculators unwound long positions. The price appears to be well underpinned with renewed physical buying interest on price dips around the $320 an ounce level. It is rumored that the Chinese central bank continues to accumulate gold in place of U.S. dollars to beef up reserves. The price of gold has fallen below the level where it was prior to concerns of imminent war with Iraq and when investor concern was over U.S. dollar weakness and falling stock markets. The underlying economic reasons for U.S. dollar weakness and weak stock markets have not changed and once the euphoria over the war in Iraq is concluded it is likely that investors will turn attention to the growing list of economic problems such as rising record debt levels, the record current account deficit (including war, occupation and reconstruction costs), declining corporate earnings, rising unemployment, declining consumer confidence, etc. Gold is portfolio insurance and it is “on sale”.


- Jon H. Warner -


E-Mail the current report to a friend or to yourself.
__________________________
Jon Warner is a professional geologist with nearly 24 years in exploration and project development in both mining and petroleum. Mr. Warner brings to the table an impressive industry contact list, thorough knowledge of the precious metals and energy markets as well as a practical understanding of gold`s role in the private investment portfolio. His strong knowledge in these fields has been demonstrated at the USAGOLD Discussion Forum where he posts on a regular basis as Black Blade.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



We invite you to stay tuned to the gold market through our DISCUSSION FORUM
featuring round the clock gold news & commentary from the public.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Tippgeber1]

Der Krieg ist wohl doch schneller
entschieden als viele dachten.
Gold im Sturzflug. Langfristig
ändert das wohl nichts an den
guten Edelmetallaussichten oder?

Eure Meinung bitte.

Liebe Grüße

Tippgeber

[ThaiGuru]

April 8 – Gold $322.10 up 90 cents – Silver $4.47 up 7 cents

Silver Beginning To Shine

"The enemy is anybody who`s going to get you killed, no matter which side he is on." - Joseph Heller, Catch 22

I thought this quote most appropriate in light of the recent activity by The Gold Cartel bombardiers.

Don’t know about you, but I am sick and tired of these folks. What tedium these days! What’s there to say that’s new? Sadaam’s alive? Sadaam’s dead? That’s the focus of the investment world lately. Meaningful gold news at the moment is down to a dribble. The one constant: a bunch of criminals continue to ruin our financial markets and steal our money.

There is one BIG positive out there and that’s The Café sentiment index. I have had requests on occasion to let the membership know when it sinks way down. It’s WAY down:

*hits on the site have dropped dramatically
*trial membership is in new low ground for the past year
*full membership has dropped off a cliff in three weeks from Boomtown to Bustville
*the number of emails with quality input about the gold market happenings has diminished significantly
*total personal emails have dropped off considerably
*delete requests from the trial member email list is running high


The Café sentiment meter is in new low ground,, especially taking into consideration that I have been at this 56 months.

We must be very close to a bottom!

That’s the bad news. The good news was my dinner last evening with Nelson Hultberg and Ethan Stroud, famed Dallas attorney and mega GATA supporter. Ethan made his fame and fortune here in Dallas, but in his earlier years spent time as an attorney for the Fed and US Treasury.

Nelson is relatively new to the gold world, but is one quick study. He’s very bright, as you can ascertain from his writings, and much fun. As you might surmise, our dinner chatter was very animated. Great to have access to a sharp mind like that.

Gold rallied up to $324 before the goon patrol came in with "no mas" orders. Their selling was relentless on all rallies. Trading was subdued today, but the floor tended to buy gold whenever the euro perked up.

Silver continues to "act" well and is creeping up. At one point, it busted through $4.50 before a bout of profit taking took it back down.

The silver chart is shaping up nicely:
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SV/53

Silver took out its downtrend line stemming from early February highs. It also is getting some commentary from a number of newsletter writers, most because the Comex Commitment of Traders Report is looked on more favorably as the specs have gone short. That makes sense. Midas has been reporting that the funds were piling in on the short side.

There are no gaps on the downside either, another plus. Ole timers like myself can’t help but eyeing $6 soybeans. Twenty-four years ago, soybeans and silver traded tick for tick together, like two peas in a pod.

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

Tuesday April 08 2003

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $9.32, PM $6.91, with world gold at $319.50 and $320.80. Well above legal import point. Gold was quite volatile in the early hours today.

After the NY gold close, US stocks slipped very badly, and possibly for this reason gold rose a couple of dollars in early ACCESS trading. Just before the TOCOM opening (8PM NY time), the prospect of a successful assassination attempt on Saddam Hussein triggered a modest dollar rally and a sustained attack on the gold price, which unlike yesterday, continued well into Japanese trading hours. Active arbitrage selling by the Japanese trade houses utilizing lower world gold prices pressured TOCOM gold futures, and apparently did trigger some liquidation. On volume equivalent to 50,876 Comex contacts (161% above yesterday), the active contract fell 11 yen (down 21 yen at one point), and open interest fell the equivalent of 1,441 Comex lots. Gold slumped as low as $319.25 before rallying to go out at $321, presumably responding to early Indian activity. The Japanese Financial community appears to have relapsed into torpor after successfully negotiating their financial year end. (NY yesterday traded 26,633 contracts; volume rose 2502 lots.)

As mentioned yesterday, the peculiar fact that the CFTC specs, particularly the supposedly sophisticated long specs, are remaining long, despite the recent gold slump and technically horrible situation, is provoking puzzlement. Chicago grain expert Greg Pickup ([e-mail] ) has provided a valuable insight. He maintains that similar tenacity has been seen in recent months in the grains – and has recently been vindicated in soybeans. Greg suggests that the ballooning of funds committed to hedge fund activity has changed the pattern of technical market action. If so, the anxieties expressed by veteran precious metals observers may be misplaced. Grains, of course, have several deep and somewhat fundamentally diverse markets, unlike precious metals: so it is plausible that such a shift could be picked up there first. This would suggest the current CFTC spec long position is not a threat.


Those antique enough to remember how the West felt about the Russians crushing the ‘56 Budapest rising will take little pleasure in the news from Baghdad, which casts the Americans as the Red Army. They will also remember that resistance continued long after central direction had disappeared,

JB

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[Biotechperle]

Mittwoch, 09. April 2003

Senat plant für 2004 Rekord-Verschuldung
cri.

Der Senat will im nächsten Jahr statt der ursprünglich geplanten drei Milliarden Euro nun 5,4 Milliarden Euro an neuen Schulden aufnehmen. Dies teilte die Finanzverwaltung jetzt dem Hauptausschuss mit. Im Jahr 2005 sollen weitere 3,7 Milliarden Euro an Krediten aufgenommen werden. Damit wächst der Schuldenberg schon im nächsten Jahr auf 55,7 Milliarden Euro - eine Dimension, die Finanzsenator Thilo Sarrazin (SPD) erst für das Jahr 2006 angekündigt hatte. (cri.)

Gruß
Bio

[derunsichtbarefreund]

es geht los !!!

die erste große deutsche bank geht in die grube.

BAFin " nimmt " die BFI in den kollektor. bank geschlossen.

kein kleiner fisch wie ich meine

DUF... aber was weiß ich schon

[Magniafazulaa]

einen schnellen Schönfärber-bericht oder in die ander Richtung geschrieben, einer kopierts rein, heute bereits 250 mal angeklickt (11:30 Uhr) und schon bewegt man Meinungen und zwangsläufig Geld in die gewünschte Richtung oder liege ich da falsch

und wieviele finanzgurus und journalisten treiben sich hier eigentlich rum, die sich jedesmal wahrscheinlich kaputtlachen über das board als kontraindikator....die wiederum schreiben einen bericht der die boardmeinung bestätig und wieder wird das ding hier reinkopiert.

Ne, so können die Kleinen kein Geld verdienen

[erdede]

@thaiGuru


Gold plumps einmal mehr... ThaiGuru ThaiGuru , wie willst Du Deine 1000 USD erreichen...


erdede

[derunsichtbarefreund]

erdede

dann kauf dir doch aktien. dow oder dax ... und werde glücklich ... wer sehen kann ist deutlich im vorteil

und komm nicht mit kurzfristig... kurzfristig ist nämlich alles pleite ..

DUF

[erdede]

@derunsichtbarefreund


Nun, du unsichtbarer ...ich hab sowohl als auch... bin ja nicht einseitig positioniert. auf Sicht von 10 Jahren sieht sowieso alles anders aus, wer weiss das schon und ob.. Na lassen wir das.
Heute muss man schon kurzfristiger denken und entsprechend engagiert sein als früher. Kostolany-Zeiten sind eigentlich vorbei. Gilt nicht generell aber in der nächsten Zeit ist der Trend eher uneinheitlich.

Ich sprach ThaiGuru eben an, denn es geht um das Kursziel in diesem Jahr und nicht das am St.Nimmerleinstag - 1.
...und es geht nicht darum wo und wie und wieviel man investiert ist.
Und so hab ich auch meine Frage gestellt.
Bei diesen Manipulationen und Gedrücke kann eigentlich nur mit einer Gegenkraft entgegengewirkt werden.

Darum

Gründen wir doch zur Kurspflege als Gegenkraft den GBMT?
Das "Gold und Silber Bull Manipulation Team" , das finanzkräftig genug ist, der herrschenden Unbill hier entgegenzuwirken und dem Gold den richtigen Platz zuzuweisen.
PS: vielleicht mithilfe von Greenspan, der für uns das Geld druckt



Gruss
erdede

[der_captain]

@erdede

beim gbmt bin ich auch dabei, vielleicht fragen wir noch bernhard "the pusher" förtsch, ob er uns mit seiner zeitschrift unterstützt.

[erdede]

@Käpt`n

da wär ich aber vorsichtig, da kommen Erinnerungen bei mir hoch, ("pusht" ist ein verpöhntes Wort mit Gschmäckle versehen) aber andere Adressen wären mir dann schon lieber .

Es geht darum einen fairen Markt (wieder) auf die Beine zu stellen, und das ist hier leider zurzeit nicht der Fall.

Gruss
erdede

[ThaiGuru]

@erdede

Du schreibst:

"Gold plumps einmal mehr... ThaiGuru ThaiGuru , wie willst Du Deine 1000 USD erreichen..."

Sadam scheint ja im Irak nicht so beliebt zu sein wie von vielen arabischen Ländern vermutet. Da wird die Statue Sadams im Zentrum Bagdads gestürzt, und die Bevölkerung feiert.

Die Börsen sollten doch explosionsartig ansteigen nach dem Fall Sadams Bagdad. Doch sie fallen!

Gold plumpst einmal mehr, schreibst Du. Ich sehe aber was ganz anderes. Gold steigt!



Die 1000.- Dollar pro Unze Gold, sind nicht meine 1000.- Dollar, sondern ist eine Prognose, wo meiner Ansicht nach am Ende dieses Jahres der Goldpreis stehen könnte. Bis dahin fehlen aber noch fast 9 Monate. Die massenhaft Gründe die für einen massiven Goldpreisanstieg stehen, sind auch nicht verschwunden, sie sind alle noch da, und werden täglich noch mehr. Dass Gold anfangs Jahr die 400.- Dollar nicht gebrochen hatte, lag ja wohl auch nicht an fehlenden Fundamentaldaten beim Gold, sondern eher an der Comex, die die Margin Regeln über Nacht geändert hatte, und vor allem den vereinten Kräften des Goldcabals.

Also was soll Deine polemische Frage erdede?

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[der_captain]

@thai guru

ich glaube auch, dass gold ende des jahres um einiges höher steht als heute, der faire goldpreis liegt bei ca. 600$ und ich glaub, dass wir dies ende des jahres sehen werden.
auch wird silber noch um einiges höher steigen als es heute steht.

ich erinnere mich als immer gesagt wurde, dass nach dem fall bagdads die indizes kräftig nach oben schnellen werden und dass der gold preis dann in den keller fällt und dass die gold- und silberinvestoren die "blöden" sind.

tja wer ist jetzt der "blöde"?

[hpoth]

ja, so wurde es immer verkündet,glaube von wardriver ganz besonders, es kommt eben immer anders als man denkt.gruß hpoth

[der_captain]

ja wardriver, der gute alte goldbasher, ein meister seines handwerks.

c`est la vie!!!

[ThaiGuru]

http://biz.yahoo.com/cc/8/28478.html

Gold Fields Limited Earnings Conference Call (Q3 2003)

Scheduled to start Thu, May 8, 2003, 10:30 am Eastern

After the event has finished, the audio will be available
from this page until Sat, May 8, 2004

About Gold Fields Limited (NYSE:GFI)

Gold Fields Limited is a precious metals producer with annual attributable gold production of 4.1 million ounces and attributable mineral resources of 187 million ounces, as well as mineral reserves of 79 million ounces. The Company has operations in South Africa, Australia and Ghana (West Africa), as well as gold and platinum group metals exploration projects in Africa, Australia, Europe, North America and South America. Gold Fields` operations are structured into two areas: South African Operations and International Operations. The South African Operations comprise the Driefontein, Kloof and the Free State divisions, while the International Operations encompass St. Ives and Agnew in the Australia Division and Tarkwa and Damang in the Ghana Division.

[konradi]

dazu ergänzend:


Goldminers cut hedges



Gold producers scaled back their hedge books by 14 per cent in 2002, according to London commodity research and consulting group Gold Fields Mineral Services.


GFMS said the outstanding gold producer hedge book fell by 14 per cent to 81 million troy ounces, equivalent to 97 per cent of mine production last year.

"The staggering decline in the global hedge book in 2002 was undoubtedly one of the key factors supporting the gold price above $US300 an ounce last year," GFMS said.

The figures are contained in a new quarterly hedge book analysis released by GFMS, in association with international banking group Investec.

The report provides a new analysis of the hedging activity of goldminers based on results obtained through the use of the Brady Trinity Risk Management and Trading System.
GFMS said hedging activity had been entered into the system according to individual company, instrument and year of expiry.

It said at the end of the fourth quarter of 2002, the outstanding delta-adjusted producer hedge book comprised 62 million ounces of forward sales and a small quantity of gold loans and 19 million ounces of options transactions.

It said the delta-adjusted options position is one of the key outputs obtained through the use of the Brady Trinity system.

AAP - 10.04.03

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.620ktar.com/news/article.aspx?article_id=120186&c…

Barrick Gold Wins Lawsuit Against EPA Back

A U.S. District Court has ruled against an Environmental Protection Agency rule that required Barrick Gold Corp. to report all waste rock that was moved during mining operations.

Barrick, a Canadian gold-mining company, said the court ruled that the EPA "had erroneously interpreted the Emergency Planning and Community Right-to-Know-Act by requiring the industry to report the movement of rock as if it were a toxic `release` to the environment."

The EPA issued the directive in 1999 under its Toxic Release Inventory Program. Barrick challenged it in court the same year.

The company said it`s pleased Judge Thomas Penfield Jackson of the District of Columbia agreed with its position that the movement of waste rock is not a toxic release.

Barrick said it viewed the requirement as misleading since trace minerals are naturally occurring and aren`t released when they are moved out of the way to get to a mineral deposit. The company added it "fully supports the public`s right to know about toxic releases."

Shares of Barrick traded midday at $15.32, up 19 cents, or 1.3 percent, on the New York Stock Exchange.

[ThaiGuru]

@hpoth

Hatte der Weirddriver nicht auch geschrieben Gold wird bald billiger als Keramik sein?

@der_captain

Du siehst 650.- Dollar pro Unze Gold als fairen Preis. Im Verhältnis zum jetzigen Dollar/Euro Wechselkurs, sehe ich noch einen höheren Gold Preis bis ende Jahr. Wie auch immer, der Goldpreis wird steigen, auch wenn`s viele noch nicht so recht glauben wollen.

@Tippgeber1

Mittel-, und langfristig wird sich sicher nichts ändern. Gold wird steigen.

[der_captain]

@tahi guru

wenigstens sind wir auf der richtigen seite.

[ThaiGuru]

@Biotechperle

#5339

Dein Posting zur Verschuldung Berlins, ist ja wohl der Hammer. Es zeigt einmal mehr wie die Verantwortlichen die Oeffentlichkeit belügen, zumindest was die Zahlen zur Verschuldung angeht. 55,7 Milliarden Schulden sollen es schon 2004 sein, das ist ja wohl nicht gerade nichts!

Stell Dir mal vor, nur so theoretisch, die Zinsen fangen an zu steigen!

Das grösste Problem ist auch in Berlin, dass die Neuverschuldung erhöht werden muss, um die Zinsen bedienen zu können, und nicht etwa in erster Linie um die gestiegenen normalen Ausgaben zu begleichen. Von einer Reduzierung von Schulden wird ja schon lange nicht mehr gesprochen.

Und dies führt früher, oder später zu Hyperinflation.

Entweder man erkennt die zukünftige Entwicklung, und sorgt vor, kauft physisches Gold, oder man siehts nicht, und wartet einfach auf ein Wunder genannt "Wirtschaftsaufschwung"

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[Biotechperle]

Ja,ThaiGuru,wirklich erschreckend.

Aber Du siehst ja, wie warnende Stimmen,nur als Beispiel
Nabil Khayat,von vielen verhöhnt und teilweise beschimpft werden.
Genauso Robert Rethfeld von Wellenreiter-Invest,sein Tageskommentar wurde heute wahrscheinlich auf Grund seiner gewählten Überschrift "Positive Divergenz im Gold" am wenigsten angeklickt.
Die Masse hat es noch nicht erkannt.

Gruß
Bio

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?pagename=thes…

Iraq War Index


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
77: Percentage of Americans who support military action against any country believed to be linked to 9/11 terrorist attacks, even if innocent civilians are killed in those countries.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
69: In a 2002 poll, percentage of Americans who said they believe Iraq has nuclear weapons.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
O: Number of nuclear warheads in Iraq.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
53.9: Estimated number of U.S. troops over the age of 20 deemed to be overweight by federal obesity standards.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
$850 billion: Estimated military spending in the world in 2002.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50: Percentage spent by U.S.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
0.0015: Percentage spent by Iraq.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50 per cent: Spending increase on U.S. national defence projected between 2000 and 2007.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
320 metric tonnes: Amount of depleted uranium left in region after 1991 Gulf War.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
200,000: Estimated number of U.S. soldiers said to be suffering from Gulf War Syndrome.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
700: Between 1991 and 94, percentage increase in cancer rates in Iraq.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 in 6: Chance the U.S. bombed Iraq on any given day last year.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
9: Percentage of U.S. munitions dropped during the first Gulf War that were classified as precision-guided.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
75: Percentage used during current war.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
98: During the first Gulf War, the reported "success rate" (or percentage of accurate strikes) by Tomahawk cruise missiles.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
10: Pentagon`s estimated "success rate" after the war ended.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
$750,000: Unit cost of one Tomahawk cruise missile.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
725: By Thursday morning, number of Tomahawks used in Iraq.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
6: Of the 10-member commission created to investigate the 9/11 terrorist attacks, the number who have direct links to the airline industry.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
$3 million: Budget given to commission.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
$9 billion: Estimated monthly cost for U.S. to sustain war in Iraq.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
$100 billion: Estimated cost of Iraq "reconstruction."


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
$7.4 billion: Amount U.S. will spend on missile defence research and development this year.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
70: The percentage increase in wealth gap between the top 10 per cent of American families with highest incomes and the 20 per cent of families with lowest incomes between 1998 and 2001.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
400: Number of French products and companies suggested for boycott on several Web sites.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
18: Number of times France has invoked its veto in United Nations history.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
76: Number of times the U.S. has used its veto.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1,200: Number of American historians who signed a petition last year demanding the Bush administration respect the U.S. Constitution with respect to declaration of war.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
54 to 67: By 2020, estimated percentage of crude oil that will come from Persian Gulf.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2: As a measure of proven oil reserves, ranking of Iraq among all countries.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
6: Percentage of the world`s population living in the U.S.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
30: Percentage of the world`s energy resources used in the U.S.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
89: Percentage of Americans who rely on television as their first source of news during war in Iraq.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
92: Between Sept. 14, 2002 and Feb. 7, 2003, percentage of news stories airing on NBC, ABC and CBS that originated directly from White House, Pentagon or State Department.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
67: Between March 25 and 27, percentage of U.S. television viewers who said they felt "sad watching the war coverage."


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
83: Percentage of U.S. television viewers who say they now want a return to entertainment programming.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
236,202: The number of times Osama bin Laden was mentioned in international media reports between Sept. 11, 2001 and Sept. 11, 2002.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
57, 667: The number of times Osama bin Laden was mentioned between Sept. 11, 2002 and today.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
66,648: The number of times Saddam Hussein was mentioned between Sept. 11, 2001 and Sept. 11, 2002.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
225,147: The number of times Saddam Hussein was mentioned between Sept. 11, 2002 and today.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Oct. 2, 2002: Date the American Gulf War Veterans Association called for the resignation of U.S. Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld after he denied the U.S. sent biological weapons to Iraq during the 1980s.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
38: In a 2002 poll, percentage of Americans who said Canada should be annexed.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
13: Percentage of Americans between the ages of 18 and 24 who could find Iraq on a map prior to the war.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
16,000: Number of inactive military ranges in the U.S. that have unexploded munitions that pose serious environmental hazards.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1.5 million: Number of Internet "hits" the Iraq Body Count Web site has had since the war began.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
52: Percentage of these visitors who are from the United States.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50: Percentage of weapons entering the global market that come from American firms.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
10: Percentage of U.S. military spending that would provide global population with basic necessities.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1: Number of countries that have used nuclear weapons against another country.

Sources: U.S. Department of Defence, New York Times, Opinion Dynamics Corporation, Factiva Database, Leger Marketing, Center for Media and Public Affairs, Medact, Pentagon, Znet, U.S. Surgeon General, National Geographic, Environmental Protection Agency, United Nations, World Health Organization, National Energy Policy, Colorado Campaign for Middle East Peace, Iraqi Body Count, Advertising Age, The Pew Research Center, Congressional Budget Office, BBC News, Washington Post, Amnesty International.

[mickym [VIP]]

Hi @all,

über die grundsätzliche Richtung dürfte es glaube ich hier im Gold-Board gar keine so unterschiedliche Meinung geben.

Problem werden wohl immer Zeitwetten sein. Ich denke mal, dass gerade die Reaktion der Börsen wohl weder während, als auch nach dem Irakkrieg wenige vorausgesehen haben, obwohl sich auch hier ein paar passende Börsensprüche für die Indices finden lassen.

z. Bsp.

"Kaufen, wenn die Kanonen donnern" - und nun "sell the facts".

Bis auf ein paar GM, haben sich die meisten in der Zeit gut gehalten und wer noch eingekauft hat, muss nun halt auch Geduld mitbringen.

Man schaut die Charts mehrerer Jahre an und glaubt nun, dass es im Zeitraffer weiter geht - aber gut Ding will Weile haben. Überhitzungen bringen heftige Gegenreaktionen, da es immer Spekulanten geben wird, die den Gewinn eben noch vergrössern wollen.

Wenn sich Fundamentaldaten sofort durchsetzen würden, dann hätte es wohl nie eine Spekublase gegeben.

Gruss Mic

[ThaiGuru]

@derunsichtbarefreund

#5340

Das war ja wohl nur der Beginn einer Entwicklung!
Es geht los, hast Du geschrieben. Befürchte Du hast damit völlig Recht.

Die Kunden der BFI Bank AG können nun um ihr Geld zittern, zumindest bei 20000.- Euro übersteigenden Beträgen.
Aber auch auf deponierte Beträge unter 20000.- Euro, muss wohl lange Zeit gewartet werden.

Wer physisches Gold besitzt hat diese Probleme nicht!

Gruss

ThaiGuru



http://morgenpost.berlin1.de/inhalt/wirtschaft/story596472.h…



Finanzaufsicht schließt BFI Bank

Berlin

Die Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin) hat die BFI Bank AG in Dresden geschlossen und ein Veräußerungs- und Zahlungsverbot erlassen. Bei der Bank sei ein erheblicher, ungedeckter Wertberichtigungsbedarf entstanden, begründete die BaFin das Moratorium. Mehr als die Hälfte des haftenden Eigenkapitals seien aufgezehrt.

Das Institut mit einer Bilanzsumme von 260 Mio. Euro hat neben der Zentrale in Dresden Niederlassungen in Würzburg und Luxemburg und trat vor allem als Direktbank auf. Schwerpunkt waren Immobilien- und Wohnungsbaufinanzierung. Die BFI Bank war dadurch aufgefallen, dass sie Publikumsgeld zu besonders günstigen Zinsen aufnahm. Mehr als 400 freie Vermittler hatten zudem Inhaberschuldverschreibungen und Genussrechte angeboten, die nicht der gesetzlichen Einlagensicherung unterliegen. Im Februar 2003 waren bei der Bank Termin- und Festgeld sowie Spareinlagen in Höhe von 216 Mio. Euro angelegt.

Die Kunden können zum Teil auf Entschädigung hoffen, weil die BFI der Entschädigungseinrichtung deutscher Banken GmbH angehört. Je Kunde sind aber nur bis zu 90 Prozent, maximal 20.000 Euro geschützt. Sollte der Entschädigungsfall eintreten, setzt sich die Einrichtung mit den Kunden in Verbindung.

n.s.

[erdede]

@ThaiGuru

Gold steigt wieder nein, glaub ich fast nicht, das ich das noch erleben durfte, nun hoffemer mal dass die 330 bald genommen werden können, eine Basis zum Aufstieg auf der ersten Schäfchenweide zwischen 350 und 360.

Möglicherweise sind die Basher aufgeschreckt worden auf meinen Vorschlag hin den GBMT (Gold and Silver Bull Manipulation Team)
zu gründen, und haben sich mal vorsichtshalber eingedeckt.

Könnte doch sein, nicht wahr Thai Guru?

Ich hab mich eben wieder mal furchtbar geärgert heute. Aber bedenke 9 Monate ok, der Weg ist aber lang bis dorthin, sehr lang. Da müsste ja wohl was apokalyptisches geschehen... meinst Du nicht? Da müssten viele Tuben her

Gruss
erdede

[ThaiGuru]

Hongkong fürchtet dramatische SARS-Entwicklung


Die Lungenkrankheit SARS greift in China und Hongkong weiter um sich. Das Bild zeigt eine Frau mit Mundschutz in Shanghai.


Hongkong/Peking (dpa) - Hongkongs oberster Mediziner befürchtet eine dramatische Zunahme der SARS-Fälle in der Wirtschaftsmetropole. Die Zahl der Lungenerkrankungen könne sich bis Ende April verdreifachen, von derzeit 970 auf 3000. Auch in der chinesischen Hauptstadt Peking greift die Angst vor SARS weiter um sich. Die Lage ähnele derjenigen in der südlichen Provinz Guangdong, wo die Bevölkerung Anfang Februar der Panik nahe gewesen sei, sagte Alan Schnur von der Weltgesundheitsorganisation WHO am Mittwoch in Peking.

Weiterhin gibt es Hinweise auf mehr Fälle in Peking als von den Behörden bislang eingeräumt. In Singapur nehmen katholische Priester aus Angst vor SARS keine Beichte mehr ab.

In Deutschland verzeichnet das Robert Koch-Institut inzwischen sechs «wahrscheinliche Verdachtsfälle». Die WHO hat bis Mittwochnachmittag weltweit 2722 SARS-Fälle und 106 Tote registriert.

In Hongkong waren bis zum Mittwochnachmittag (Ortszeit) in nur 24 Stunden 42 neue Krankheitsfälle hinzu gekommen. «Ich prognostiziere, dass bis zum Ende dieses Monats im schlimmsten Fall die Zahl der Krankheitsfälle zwischen 1800 und 3000 liegt», sagte der Chef der Hongkonger Gesundheitsbehörde, Leong Che-hung, vor Journalisten. In der Wirtschaftsmetropole starben bislang 27 Menschen am Schweren Akuten Atemwegssyndrom (SARS).

Hongkong hat die weltweit höchste Zahl von Krankheitsfällen außerhalb der chinesischen Provinz Guangdong. Mehr als 300 der 970 Infizierten sind Bewohner des Blocks Amoy Gardens, wo sich die Erkrankung rasend schnell ausgebreitet hatte. Ein Sprecher der Gesundheitsbehörde vermutete, dass sich SARS dort durch Kakerlaken verbreitet haben könnte.

In der chinesischen Hauptstadt Peking könnte es mehr Fälle geben, als amtlich gemeldet. Während die Regierung die Zahl der SARS-Toten in der Hauptstadt mit 5 angibt, versicherte ein Arzt dem US-Magazin «Time», allein in seinem Militärkrankenhaus seien 7 Menschen an SARS gestorben und 60 erkrankt. Pekings Behörden hatten von 19 SARS-Kranken gesprochen. Eine Umfrage der dpa unter mehreren Kliniken ergab mindestens 9 Todesfälle.

SARS hat weitere Auswirkungen auf Religion und Kultur. Statt einer Beichte erteilen Pfarrer in Singapur ihren Gemeinden eine «generelle Absolution», wie die Zeitung «Straits Times» am Mittwoch meldete. Bislang starben in dem Stadtstaat neun Menschen an SARS. Um das Risiko einer Ansteckung zu vermindern, legen Pfarrer während des Abendmahls die Hostie nicht mehr auf die Zunge der Gläubigen, sondern in deren Hände.

Wegen der SARS-Epidemie hat das Wuppertaler Tanztheater Pina Bausch die vor den Osterfeiertagen geplante Gastspielserie in Taiwan abgesagt. Die vom 18. bis zum 20. April in Taipeh vorgesehenen Vorstellungen müssen ausfallen.

Die vietnamesische Tourismusindustrie muss schwere Einbußen verkraften. Die Hotels seien nur noch zu 40 Prozent ausgelastet, teilte der Leiter der staatlichen Tourismusbehörde, Vu The Binh, in Hanoi mit. Vor einigen Monaten habe die Quote noch bei 95 Prozent gelegen. Die australische Fluggesellschaft Qantas streicht wegen des Rückgangs der Passagierzahlen durch die Lungenkrankheit SARS und den Irak-Krieg 1 400 ihrer rund 35 000 Arbeitsplätze.

Ein 62-jähriger südafrikanischer Geschäftsmann wird in Pretoria weiter als erster «wahrscheinlicher SARS-Fall» Afrikas behandelt. «Die ersten Tests kamen negativ zurück, doch bedeutet das nicht, dass der Patient die Krankheit nicht hat», sagte der Mediziner Barry Schob vom Institut für übertragbare Krankheiten. Die Ergebnisse weiterer Tests seien aber erst Anfang kommender Woche zu erfahren. Der Geschäftsmann war am 27. März von einer Asienreise zurückgekehrt.

In weiteren Verdachtsfällen gaben die Ärzte inzwischen Entwarnung, so bei einer Patientin im Rhein-Neckar-Kreis, einem Patienten in Mannheim, einer Patientin in Aachen und auch im ersten Verdachtsfall von Indien.



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erschienen am 09.04.2003 um 17:58 Uhr
© WELT.de

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.usagold.com

The Afternoon Gold Report...

by Jon Warner

April 9, 2003 (usagold.com)

New York spot gold settled higher at $325.50 an ounce up $3.40 an ounce from yesterday’s close. "Everybody is watching the Iraqis pull down the statue here," said Ian MacDonald, head of bullion dealing at Commerzbank. "It`s good we see the Iraqis doing this and not the American or coalition troops. In the meantime I think the markets are on hold." MacDonald said gold was still in a range, with physical demand putting a floor in between $310 and $320 an ounce and the upside probably limited to the $350/$360 area. "Even with the decline in some industrial demand, in Europe and the U.S., investment demand out of the Middle East, India, and so on, is really compensating for any downtick in this side of the world," MacDonald said. Gold has fallen dramatically from its highs earlier in the year and has "a weak tone due to the rapid progress of the war in Iraq," said Todd Hultman, president of Dailyfutures.com, a commodity information provider. But in the longer-term picture, "gold impressively broke above its 20-year downtrend in early 2002, traded higher until January and has now pulled back temporarily, but is still in a long-term uptrend," said Hultman. Industry consolidation that`s taken place over the past six years will be supportive for gold, he said. "Low interest rates, a slow economy, increased government spending, and a weaker dollar are also helping support prices," he added. As a result, even with the recent declines in prices, Hultman still believes $400 per ounce is "reasonable to expect in the next two years."

Richard Band, editor of “Profitable Investing” is now bullish on gold. He told subscribers in a recent hotline: "For the past eight weeks, the precious metals complex has been sinking. However, this decline must be seen within the context of a larger bull market dating back to 1999. My chart studies indicate that the recent pullback is ending -- and that the bull is about to snort again, probably soon after the Allies declare victory in Iraq. "Longer term, the outlook for gold is favorable because the Federal Reserve is desperately pumping cash into the banking system in an effort to stave off recession and deflation. This policy has already weakened the dollar, and will continue to do so. As the dollar softens against other currencies, global investors who doubt the inflation-fighting resolve of the U.S. government will shift a portion of their assets into gold."

London gold was fixed this afternoon at $321.35 an ounce, down from $324.10 an ounce at the morning fixing. "The price action over the past few days confirms our view that the long-liquidation sell-off in gold has come to an end," said John Reade, metals analyst at UBS Warburg. "In the near term the metal will continue to take its direction from currencies and equity markets but once attention moves from war to economic performance we expect gold to find renewed interest," Reade said. "Strength in the euro has continued overnight, pushing gold back up to $324 after the yellow metal closed in New York at $322.40...$320-328 is likely to offer a wide trading range for the moment," said James Moore, metals analyst at TheBullionDesk.com. "The picture in the bullion market shows signs of stabilising. At the start of this month the market `overshot` on the upside to 338.5 usd. It now feels that at the start of this week prices overshot on the downside -- to 319 usd," said Kevin Crisp at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein. "Importantly, the sellers are absent too. Gold has regained the `middle ground` but unless additional impetus comes from dollar and equity market weakness any further moves may now have to wait until Friday," he added. Some attention is beginning to swing away from the Iraqi conflict to the economic weakness that could persist beyond the war, Barclays Capital analysts said. However, "the path of the conflict retains the capacity to push the gold price in either direction," they added.

Earlier spot Gold rose $2.70 in Hong Kong to $324.55. Spot gold got off to a good start in Asia as the near-term outlook was linked directly to views about the health of the U.S. economy rather than the war in Iraq. Analysts suggested gold could have further to fall as investors continued to dump safe haven assets in favour of equities now that victory appeared almost inevitable. "The issue now for the gold market is that the heavy period of uncertainty as to how the military campaign would pan out has passed," Daiwa Securities resources analyst Mark Pervan said. "And the gold market moves pretty quickly on sentiment so you are seeing gold prices come off pretty sharply now." But its underlying fundamentals are expected to maintain prices between $300 and $310 an ounce. "The fact these guys (gold producers) have really pulled in on their hedging policy and have been buying back those forward sales, really puts a floor on prices," Mr Pervan said, adding gold could also benefit by uncertainty surrounding the US dollar. Commonwealth Bank of Australia chief commodity strategist David Thurtell agreed gold could again stumble in the short term but he believed it should hold above $300. "In the short term the US dollar is having a bit of a boost upwards from this successful war, if you can ever call a war successful, and that has hurt gold." Looking further ahead, he said post-war the market could turn its attention to North Korea where tension increased in February amid reports of a missile being fired in the Sea of Japan. "I guess once the war has finished I suspect that focus will go to North Korea and how the US is going to deal with that."

Financial markets are concerned that the costs of rebuilding Iraq could exacerbate the weak U.S. economy, traders said. "We are coming to the end of the war in Iraq but we`re a long way to sorting out the place," said Martin Mayne, bullion dealer at NM Rothschild & Sons (Australia) Ltd. Thus, the U.S. dollar came under slight pressure against the yen and the euro, providing some support for gold. "Most people believe it was a short-term spike and there was no sustainability to it," said Rob Brierley, a senior resources analyst at Paterson Ord Minnett Ltd. "Currently, the gold price is in a trough, where a couple of months ago, at US$390/oz, it was a clear over-reaction to the Iraqi tensions," said Brierley. "Right now, I think it`s an over-reaction to how well the war`s gone and I think sooner or later, people will start to focus on the economic conditions in the U.S.," in turn benefiting gold, he said. "The U.S. economy is still on the brink of falling back into recession, and globally there are very low interest rates, which enhances the appeal of gold as an investment," said Paterson`s Brierley. Describing himself as a gold bull, Paterson expects the gold price to go above $330/oz soon and trade between $330-US$350/oz in the next few years, without considering the occasional spikes and troughs. "People are now mainly focused on the U.S. economy rather than the war, and it really looks like the U.S. dollar is not going too high," said Leon Lee, senior officer at the Bank of China in Hong Kong. "A weaker dollar technically meant a higher gold price but profit taking might cap some of the precious metal`s near-term gains," Lee said. "In the last few days, we have tested support at $320 and then bounced back to $325 and I think that is the near-term range," Lee added.

Global gold producers scaled back their hedge books by 14 per cent in 2002, according to a new report by London-based commodity research and consulting group Gold Fields Mineral Services (GFMS). GFMS said the outstanding gold producer hedge book fell 14 per cent to 81 million ounces, equivalent to 97 per cent of mine production last year. "The staggering decline in the global hedge book in 2002 was undoubtedly one of the key factors supporting the gold price above $US300 an ounce last year," GFMS said. The figures are contained in a new quarterly gold hedge book analysis released by GFMS, in association with international banking group Investec. The report outlines a new analysis of the hedging activity of gold miners based on results obtained through the use of the Brady Trinity Risk Management and Trading System. GFMS said hedging activity had been put into the system on an individual company, instrument and year of expiry basis. It said at the end of the fourth quarter of 2002, the outstanding delta-adjusted producer hedge book comprised 62 million ounces of forward sales and a small quantity of gold loans and 19 million ounces of options transactions. Detractors of hedging correctly charge the practice erects a price ceiling on bullion prices and damages the industry as a whole.

GEOPOLITICAL NEWS:

Iraqis joyously welcomed U.S. Marines driving through eastern Baghdad on Wednesday and looters moved in as the remnants of Saddam Hussein`s rule collapsed. Hundreds of jubilant Iraqis cheered, danced, waved and threw flowers as Marines advanced through eastern Baghdad and into the center of Saddam`s seat of power. Residents woke to the sound of birdsong and only occasional shooting after one of calmest nights in three weeks of war. There were no signs of Iraqi police or troops on the main streets. Information Ministry officials who have shadowed reporters through the conflict were nowhere to be seen.

Iraqis looted major sites in Baghdad on Wednesday as uniformed soldiers and police disappeared from the streets ahead of a U.S. onslaught. Reuters journalists watched cheering crowds sack the United Nations headquarters in the Canal Hotel to the east of the city center, a scene unthinkable under the rule of President Saddam Hussein. One witness saw looters ransack sports shops around the bombed Iraqi Olympic Committee building, the effective headquarters of Saddam`s elder son, Uday.

U.S. and Kurdish forces took a key mountain from which Iraqis were defending the northern city of Mosul, removing the last of the city`s defenses, a senior Kurdish official said on Wednesday. "That area was heavily defended by Iraqis throughout the campaign. From our perspective this is the most important gain of the northern front so far," said Hoshiyar Zebari, political adviser to Kurdistan Democratic Party leader Massoud Barzani. "We were surprised by the lack of resistance," Zebari added. Asked if there was any likely Iraqi resistance between the mountain and Mosul, Zebari said: "No, basically the city has fallen."

North Korea criticized Japan on Wednesday for backing the U.S.-led war in Iraq and told Tokyo to remember it had the means to strike the Japanese archipelago. The blunt reminder followed a torrent of invective in recent days by the impoverished communist state against the United States in the run-up to a U.N. Security Council meeting later on Wednesday on the North`s suspected nuclear weapons ambitions.

The United States on Wednesday warned countries it has accused of pursuing weapons of mass destruction, including Iran, Syria and North Korea, to "draw the appropriate lesson from Iraq." John R. Bolton, U.S. undersecretary of state for arms control and international security, also appealed to Syria and other countries in the Middle East to open themselves up to "new possibilities" for peace in the region. Bolton, in Rome for meetings with Vatican and Italian officials, specifically mentioned Syria, North Korea and Iran in his comments in response to a question about what the postwar period would hold.

ECONOMIC NEWS:

The Mortgage Bankers Association of America said its weekly seasonally adjusted index gauging mortgage application activity for the week ended April 4 stood at 1,2461.1, down 1.3 percent from the prior week`s 1,262.5. The group`s seasonally adjusted gauge for refinancing fell to 6,162.8, down 5 percent from the prior week`s 6,484.6. Its seasonally adjusted mortgage index for home purchases was at 400.8, up 9.9 percent from the prior week.

While confidence remains weak, ABC News/Money Magazine said its weekly Consumer Comfort index, which ranges on a scale of plus-100 to minus-100, rose a full four points, to -22 in the week ended April 6 from -26 in the prior week. The index now stands 13 points below its seven-year average of -9.

Comment: War is over – so now what? Without the sideshow in Iraq investors now will have to pay attention to economic fundamentals instead of the mindless euphoria over death and destruction. Amazing how sentiment changes so rapidly. Yesterday it was nearly impossible to find an analyst or trader who had anything positive to say about gold referring to the loss of the “war premium” and forecasting a fast fall in the gold price. Today analysts and traders note that now the war is effectively over except for minor isolated skirmishes, the markets are suddenly more focused on the weak U.S. dollar, weak equities markets and a very grim global economic outlook, and are now more positive on precious metals. Certainly yesterday’s reports of a Federal Reserve “emergency rescue plan” to prop up the markets with a variety of measures that includes further interest rate cuts and billions of dollars in extra cash for the banking system could not have inspired a lot of confidence in the dollar or the equities markets. Now that the war in Iraq is won the list of costs from the invasion and occupation to the rising costs of reconstruction will weigh heavily on the U.S. dollar as the United States will bear the brunt of these costs. With such a stacked deck against the dollar and deteriorating economic fundamentals it is more important than ever to establish a portfolio insurance position in precious metals.


- Jon H. Warner -


E-Mail the current report to a friend or to yourself.
__________________________
Jon Warner is a professional geologist with nearly 24 years in exploration and project development in both mining and petroleum. Mr. Warner brings to the table an impressive industry contact list, thorough knowledge of the precious metals and energy markets as well as a practical understanding of gold`s role in the private investment portfolio. His strong knowledge in these fields has been demonstrated at the USAGOLD Discussion Forum where he posts on a regular basis as Black Blade.



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[ThaiGuru]

Sind sie nicht schön?

[ThaiGuru]

April 9 – Gold $325.50 up $3.50 – Silver $4.44 unchanged

War Winding Down, Gold Winding Up!

"To announce that there must be no criticism of the President, or that we are to stand by the President, right or wrong, is not only unpatriotic and servile, but is morally treasonable to the American public." -Theodore Roosevelt, 26th US President (1858-1919)

Perhaps the Café Sentiment Indicator really does have significant value? While I have been looking for a bottom for days, we needed the market to tell us that might be the case. Indications we should be there have been coming from the gold share and silver action. Both refused to break down as gold continued its descent. The other was the incredible lack of interest in gold the past few days to a week, as expressed in the Café Sentiment Indicator.

The kind of action I have been looking for is just what we got today. Last night during Asian trading (as has been the case so often the past two months), gold popped up near $325, and was taken right down again in New York (as has been the case so often the past two months). Gold came in higher on the Comex, was smashed down $1 on the day, but then began to take off as the stock market wilted. Volatility, which we got plenty of during the Comex session, is THE KEY to a rising gold price. That tells us that the buying forces are powerful enough to take on The Gold Cartel criminals. When gold just sits there, hardly moving or trading in narrow range, it signifies the cabal crowd has the price fully under control.

One day doesn’t make a move, but today is a decent start. The gold fundamentals remain ragingly bullish. We’re back to the age-old GATA question of whether the physical gold market is powerful enough to take on the crooked Gold Cartel. That market has been strong all along, but the specs got blown out by the cabal. It became clear to most everyone with the brain the size of a grapefruit, the PPT and Gold Cartel were rigging the US financial markets during the time of the "war crisis." Now that the fighting is dying down, that part of the "crisis" is calming down. Investment minds will soon be forced to face the consequences of this war and revert to facing the financial market consequences of a weakening US economic picture. What will investors do and what will the PPT do?

Don’t know for sure, but The Gold Cartel must have used up an enormous amount of physical gold to bring the price all the way back down to the $320 area. They can only keep this up for so long. They have to be running low on ammo. Besides, and this may be very important, there is a major case to be made the US mainstreamers want gold to go up a decent amount to give corporations a signal that deflation is not a problem. As long as corporate executives believe deflation might be in the cards, they are not going to spend. What better way to defuse that issue than to let the gold price go higher? Of course, if it goes significantly higher, they will then have to deal with the gold derivatives neutron bomb. A sharply rising gold price will surely start that one ticking again.

When it comes to the PPT and stock market, they cannot hold it up forever.

Sarge hit the nail on the head this morning:

"Well, the pictures all over TV are saying (more or less) that we have reached the "tipping point" and have essentially won the war!!
So why isn’t the DOW up 500 points right now??"

With all the hoopla about securing Baghdad this morning and the Iraqis celebrating Sadaam Hussein’s regime demise, the stock market barely budged. The reason is very obvious. All those who wanted in on the war-ending rally have bought in already. Certainly, the PPT couldn’t buy any more. They need to sell what they already accumulated to hold the market up. I am convinced they were the big sellers on Monday when the market sold off so sharply after the euphoria over the weekend. The PPT bought so much over the past weeks, they needed to sell when many OTHERS were MAJOR BUYERS. Monday was their shot to exit and they knew it, so they took it.

The ace in the hole for the PPT and Gold Cartel was the war issue. It kept stock buyers long for the war-ending rally and gold buyers too scared to be long in fear of a war-ending price collapse. That is changing now. It’s back to the fundamentals and when it comes to gold, that is our ACE IN THE HOLE – because they are so POSITIVE!

The gold open interest rose again to 173,293, up 1434 contracts. It appears to have bottomed out also as specs are coming back in on the long side.

Ominous:

The surge in the oil price with all the good Iraqi news. Crude popped 85 cents per barrel to close at $28.85. The DOE numbers revealed an unexpected 3.6 million barrel drop instead of an expected build. If oil closes above $30 per barrel again, it will not bode well for the US economy and those Wall Street bulls looking for an oil price collapse to help out an increasingly struggling consumer. It could only be a positive for gold.

The gold chart:
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/43

Gold needs to clear $330 once again to take out its downtrend stemming from the early February highs. That shouldn’t be that difficult in the rapidly changing investment environment.

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

Wednesday April 9, 2003

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $$7.89 PM $8.67, with world gold at $324 and $322.80. Very high: well above legal import point. India remains a massive obstacle to efforts to break gold down.

TOCOM gold drifted up. The active contract rose by13 yen, $US gold advanced $1.90 from NY’s $322 close on sharply lower volume equivalent to 27,829 (down 45% from Tuesday’s level). Open interest was virtually static (down 233 Comex lots). (NY yesterday traded 30,303 contracts: open interest rose 1,434 lots.)

The ever-vigilant Greg Weldon had some relevant comments yesterday:

"The Bank of Japan left monetary policy unchanged..BUT, according to EconCzar Takenaka, the "debate" was …"active"…and "dug deeper" than ….under previous BOJ Governor Hayami."

"Indeed, we are tempted to…[say] that the BOJ is lying in wait, developing … monetary missiles to be launched when they are fully loaded…"

A shift to an aggressive reflation in Japan would be important news to the gold market.

Weldon goes on to observe;

"MORE talk of the potential for the Fed to roll out their monetary arsenal as seems to recycle over the newswires…repeatedly…suggesting that the conspiracy theorists might offer the thought that the story is continually being "re-planted…"

GFMS made headlines today with the observation that hedge book reduction by miners in 2002 was "staggering". What is really staggering is their failure to identify the sellers on the other side of this event: and indeed their failure to identify the establishment of these positions as an impediment to the gold price in the past.

JB

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The DOW (8197, down 100) and the DOG (1357, down 26) were both tagged hard late in the day. It’s time for stock market bulls to take some time to smell the roses. The problem is that there aren’t any – just a bunch of weeds in the reality check garden.

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Standard & Poor`s said Wednesday it`s revising the credit outlook for General Motors to "negative" from "stable."

By revising the outlook, S&P leaves open the possibility that it will downgrade GM`s rating. But along with the outlook revision, the credit-rating agency affirmed its "BBB-/A2" rating on the No. 1 automaker. –END-

The attached document from the Kennedy administration might be of some historical interest. Recall that Kennedy ordered the printing of dollars that were not Federal Reserve Notes, but after his assassination they were not issued.

This National Security Memorandum shows he was concerned about the outflow of gold. No other president since Kennedy has issued a document concerning gold under the category of national security.
Robert Ames



I`ll bet President Bush is pretty concerned too about the SECRET gold flow the US is LOSING from its coffers! I can hear him now: "Hey Snow, how much we got left to hold down the price?" "Doggone this looks bad Snow, we`re using it all up!" The same drill 40 years later.

From Dave Bradshaw of Swiss America:

Bill,

We launched a new educational feature this week on The Savage Nation heard nationally on over 300 affiliates of http://www.talkamerica.com.

Below is a link to a summary of the first feature discussing GATA and your efforts to expose the manipulation of gold prices by central bankers and private banking houses...FYI...there is a link to listen to the mp3 2:00 feature.

http://www.swissamerica.com/article.php?=SID&art=04-2003/200…

Keep it up...and pass it on ...
THX
db

A stellar day for the gold shares. The XAU rose 1.97 to 66.22. The more important HUI Gold Bugs Index rose 4.88 to 125.36, taking out key 125 resistance. It ought to be off to the races, especially if it takes out its 200-day moving average at 126.25. The gold shares REMAIN very undervalued compared to bullion and REMAIN screaming buys!!!

GOT TO BE IN IT TO WIN IT!



www.lemetropolecafe.com

[Insiderin007]

Könnte mal jemand den Text auf dem Brief abschreiben und hier einstellen: Bis auf einige Wörter kann ich leider überhaupt nichts erkennen- ist ja extrem schwarz. Danke im voraus.
I007

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.finanzen.net/news/news_detail.asp?NewsNr=108941

Öl- und Goldpreise steigen weiter

10.04.2003 08:18:00

Der Preis für eine Feinunze (=31,104 Gramm) Gold ist in der vergangenen Nacht gestiegen. Auch die Preise für Öl der Sorten Light Crude und Brent Crude erhöhten sich, da die US-Ölvorräte in der vergangenen Woche überraschend stark zurück gingen und zudem seitens der OPEC eine Kürzung der Ölfördermenge erwartet wird.

Nach der Besetzung der irakischen Hauptstadt Bagdad durch alliierten Truppen scheint ein Sieg in greifbarer Nähe. Jedoch wird nun den Fundamentaldaten und den Gewinnen wieder mehr Aufmerksamkeit geschenkt, die jedoch nicht sehr vielversprechend erscheinen. Vielmehr signalisieren die jüngsten Konjunkturdaten eine ungünstige US-Entwicklung für die nächsten Monate. Auch bei den anstehenden Quartalsergebnissen werden keine allzu gute Nachrichten erwartet.

Feinunze Gold: 326,20 Dollar (+3,30 Dollar)

Feinunze Silber: 4,483 Dollar (+0,005 Dollar)

Light Crude: 28,85 Dollar (+0,85 Dollar)

Brent Crude: 25,30 Dollar (+0,74 Dollar)

[charlesbronson]

From 321Gold:

Did someone mention gold?
Richard Russell
Dow Theory Letters
April 10, 2003

Extracted from the 9 April 2003 issue of Richard Russell`s Dow Theory Remarks

Gold --Next, I`m asked how gold could rise if this nation goes into a deflationary downward spiral?

If deflation takes over (and of course, that`s debatable), then with all the debt in this nation, I believe we`d see mass bankruptcies on the part of both corporations and individuals. In that case, I think there could be chaos and grave doubts about the viability of the dollar and certainly about the dollar as the world`s reserve currency. Furthermore, if America deflates, the whole world will deflate since America is the market everyone sells to -- and the market everyone depends on.

If people start worrying about the dollar, where do they turn? The euro is new and untested, the yen is just another fiat currency -- where do you turn for safety? Did someone mention gold? And that`s my answer to the question of what could happen to gold in a deflation.

One other thought -- if the dollar begins to collapse, other nations will want to lower the international value of their own currencies so they can compete in the export markets. Thus we could have a deadly war of competitive devaluations.

Competitive devaluations would benefit gold, since it would take an increasing amount of any given currency to buy an ounce of gold. In the end, gold is the immutable, tangible standard which every paper currency dances around.

More on Gold -- I`ll repeat it -- I think gold has bottomed. A lot of this business has to do with art and instinct. OK -- I`ll apply my art and instinct. The "signal" I`ve been looking for that will tell us that gold has bottomed is HUI, the "gold-bugs" unhedged average. I believe a close by HUI at 125 or better will be the signal that the bottom for gold has been completed.

If you haven`t bought any gold, I believe this is a good time to move. To make it simple, buy half your allotted investment in krugerrands and the rest in Newmont Mining, Goldcorp, Glamis and Royal Gold.

[ThaiGuru]

@Insiderin007

Versuchs doch mal mit den Windows Boardmittel.
Unter Programme, Zubehör, Hilfsmittel, klickst Du die Luppe an, und schon kannst Du den Kenedy Brief lesen.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[fiesje]

Front Street Gold Performance Fund

was jemand was hierrüber ???

[mickym [VIP]]

Hallo fiesje

Schau mal, da wurde gerade ein Thread eröffnet, wo Du ein paar Infos findest!
Thread:Thread: BEMA GOLD CORP - Umtausch in Units

Gruss Mic

[fiesje]

Dank dir mickym

[ThaiGuru]

http://m1.mny.co.za/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B242256…

Investors to drive $350 gold - GFMS

By: David McKay


Posted: 2003/04/10 Thu 09:00 | © Mineweb 1997-2003


JOHANNESBURG - Gold Fields Mineral Services (GFMS) has suggested in its Gold Survey 2003 that investment in gold could drive the metal to over $350 per ounce this year. Further stock market weaknesses, a still weak dollar and low interest rates could provide the framework for this advance in investment interest, the UK consultancy said.

“A return of the rally would be all the more likely and that much stronger if the US decides to extend its war on terror post-Iraq,” Philip Klapwijk, managing director of GFMS said.

Investment interest in gold also played a role in buoying gold above $300 per ounce last year, according to GFMS. When investor interest was flagging, as in the third quarter of the year, however, it was de-hedging which helped provide support to the gold price. De-hedging was a passive aspect of the market as gold producers were delivering into contracts rather than actively buying back their hedge positions.

“The importance of de-hedging and investment becomes apparent when viewed in comparison to fabrication, which GFMS estimate to have fallen by almost 350 tonnes or 10 percent. Much of this was attributed to gold’s rally, which hit demand in price sensitive markets such as India, and the global economic slowdown,” the consultancy said.

On the supply side, GFMS said the slim reduction in mine production was less influential on the market than the 5 percent increase in net official sector sales – their highest level since 1992. Klapwijk said the timing of official sales was important has central banks held back in the third quarter was prices were soft but became more active in the fourth “when the rally was going great guns”.

[ThaiGuru]

Falls Ihr diesen Link in das Adress Fenster Eures Browsers kopiert, und Enter klickt, seht Ihr einen interessanten Gold Chart im Verhältnis der Entwicklung der Ereignisse rund um den Irak.

Direkter Link funktioniert über Wleider nicht.

http://www.mips1.net/reference.nsf/lookupkeyword/Resources*G…

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.usagold.com

The Afternoon Gold Report...

by Jon Warner

April 10, 2003 (usagold.com)

New York spot gold settled higher at $326.60 an ounce up $1.10 an ounce from yesterday’s close. Traders predicted gold would stay in a range, with demand for gold bars from physical players in the Middle East and Asia putting in a floor between $310 and $320 and the upside probably limited to the $350/$360 area. Consultants Gold Fields Mineral Services said that gold prices may go back above $350 an ounce in the second half of this year based on a weak outlook for stock markets and the dollar. In its Gold Survey 2003, released Thursday, GFMS said gold had that potential given its status as a haven for investors. "The war premium may have imploded as some uncertainty lifted and on euphoria over what looks like a relatively easy victory for the U.S.-led forces in Iraq. But that`s not done too much to change the economic outlook which remains pro-gold," said GFMS managing director Philip Klapwijk. "Gold will still be a hard asset that smart money investors want in their investment portfolios," said John Person, head financial analyst at Infinity Brokerage Services. "Even with the decline in some industrial demand in Europe and the U.S., investment demand out of the Middle East, India, and so on, is really compensating for any downtick in this side of the world," said Ian MacDonald, head of bullion dealing at Commerzbank.

London gold was fixed this afternoon at $324.60 an ounce, down from $325.10 an ounce at the morning fixing. With dealers starting to focus on fundamentals again and the start of the corporate earnings season, the dollar and equity markets could possibly be in for a rocky ride, analysts said. "If the yellow metal is to benefit from these potential problems, it has to overcome short and long-term technical resistance located at $329.50 (18 day moving average) and $329.60 (200 day moving average)," Standard Bank London said in a daily report. "A close above $330.00 would attract chart driven fund and speculative buying, and it is worth noting the increase in open interest in the June contract on the COMEX over the last week, which suggests steady buying from the technically motivated funds," it said. ScotiaMocatta said in a daily market note to expect further attempts at the upside to meet scale-up resistance to the 200-day moving average at $329.30. "Now attention is likely to turn to economic prospects, which are hardly rosy. Any sustained weakening of the dollar --, still significantly overvalued according to the IMF today -- will continue to favour gold over the medium term," said John Reade, metals analyst at UBS Warburg. In the near term, the metal will continue to take direction from currencies and the equity markets, "but once attention moves from war to economic performance, we expect gold to find renewed interest," said Reade. "I think gold should hold above $320 for the foreseeable future, with the unstable geo-economic situation giving the opportunity for further gains," said James Moore, metals analyst at TheBullionDesk.com. Merlin Marr-Johnson, an analyst at London`s HSBC, believes the dollar is "facing a severe test and is likely to decline, which will have a positive impact on commodity prices, particularly on gold."

Earlier spot gold rose 10 cents in Hong Kong to $324.65. Gold pushed higher with the end of the war in Iraq and attention now centered on the global economy. The success of the U.S.-led, three-week drive to topple the regime of Saddam Hussein was within most market professionals` expectations and investors would now concentrate on economic issues, said Gordon Cheung, director of precious metals trading at Mitsui Bussan in Hong Kong. "It has developed within people`s expectations and the focus will now shift to U.S. economic growth, if there is any," Cheung said. "TOCOM is very active this morning, but they are lined up on both sides there so there is not much spillover activity in spot," said Cheung. "Most markets are expecting to see faltering U.S. economic growth and that puts downward pressure on the dollar, driving the price of gold up," said a dealer with a large international bank in Sydney. "We can`t apply normal theories to the price movement today," said George Tsang, assistant manager at NM Rothschild in Hong Kong. Gold looks like it has been capped at this level at $327, Tsang said and conceded gold`s current trend was a very bearish comment on the U.S. economy. "The markets are shifting their focus from Iraq back to the U.S. economy and the likely cost of the clean up operation," ABN Amro said in a report Thursday. The bank sees gold trading in a range of $320-$330 a troy ounce for the time being. "Gold`s war premium has been completely stripped away, but the outlook for the U.S. economy is far from clear," a brokerage analyst said. "There`s a view that the fiscal deficit will swell further, and that`s causing a bit of a shift to gold."

Recycling of gold by consumers in India, the world`s largest importer, has come down to normal levels after rising due to soaring prices last year, jewellery makers and traders said on Thursday. Traders said they estimated scrap gold in the Indian market at around 20 percent of the total annual consumption of 850 tonnes, down from 50 percent last year. "People who sold their ornaments to make money when prices were high have started buying again," Pawan Chokshi, a bullion dealer said from Ahmedabad, a leading import centre. A study by the industry-funded World Gold Council (WGC) showed the use of old gold in India jumped to around 50 percent from the normal 22 percent between February and June last year. According to WGC`s internal estimates, supply of scrap gold nearly doubled to 322 tonnes in 2002 from 165 tonnes in the previous year. Indian gold prices are derived from global quotes as India imports nearly 80 percent of its annual demand. "Many people used the opportunity to sell their old stocks and many preferred to exchange their old ornaments for the new ones, when prices were high," said Hiroo Mirchandani, associate director (jewellery), WGC India. Traders said around 1,000 kg of gold were being shipped into Delhi every day and the financial hub, Bombay, was buying around 700 kg. "Gold inflow has increased because it`s marriage season and imports were at standstill in the past," said Narendra Singh Rathore of Kiran Jewellers from the northwestern city of Jaipur. Gold purchases in India rise in the Hindu wedding seasons which are from January to May and also later in the year, coinciding with the festival season, which begins in September and peaks in November during Diwali, the Hindu festival of lights.

GEOPOLITICAL NEWS:

Kurdish forces are in control of the center of the northern Iraqi city of Kirkuk, the BBC reported Thursday. A BBC correspondent reporting from Kirkuk said the fighters met some resistance on their way into the city, but this soon melted away. They were greeted by cheering crowds when they entered the center of the city. The Kurds captured Kirkuk virtually without a fight after Iraqi troops laid down their weapons or fled south toward Tikrit.

U.S. Marines fought a fierce four-hour battle on Thursday at a Baghdad mosque where senior Iraqi leaders had been thought to be holed up, as U.S. warplanes attacked areas of the city under the control of Arab fighters. Fighting was also reported near an oil refinery in southwestern Baghdad. U.S. military officials said one Marine was killed and more than 20 wounded north of the city center in the battle around the Imam al-Adham Mosque and a nearby presidential palace.

A suicide bomber killed "some" American soldiers by blowing himself up at a military checkpoint in Baghdad soon after dusk on Thursday, a U.S. officer said. "Some are dead in the attack but I don`t know how many," Marine officer Matt Baker told reporters in the Iraqi capital. A Marines spokesman said the man, dressed as a civilian, walked up to the checkpoint and detonated explosives strapped to his body.

The Arab world was in shock and denial on Thursday after Baghdad fell almost without a fight, bringing to an end President Saddam Hussein`s 24-year rule. Many felt let down by demise of a figure who had represented a rare source of Arab defiance of American power; others were more shocked by his own people`s failure to defend or mourn him, and saw it as a warning to other unelected Arab rulers. From the Atlantic Ocean to the Gulf, television images of crowds rejoicing at cheering U.S. Marines toppling a Saddam statue in central Baghdad, broadcast repeatedly since Wednesday afternoon, caused consternation and a sense of shame.

Senior Iraqi Sh`ite leader Abdul Majid al-Khoei was assassinated at the mosque in the holy city of Najaf on Thursday. Ali Jabr, a member of the London-based Khoei foundation, confirmed to Reuters by phone that Abdel Majid was dead. The murder is sure to raise tensions among Iraq`s majority Shi`ite population. Majid is the son of the late Grand Ayatollah al-Khoei, spiritual leader of Iraq`s Shi`ites at the time of the 1991 Gulf War.

ECONOMIC NEWS:

The U.S. trade deficit narrowed slightly in February to $40.3 billion as exports rose and imports declined for a second consecutive month, the Commerce Dept said on Thursday. The February trade gap was lower than the estimated $42.3 billion deficit expected by Wall Street analysts. But buoyed by the highest oil prices in 20 years, it still was the third highest monthly deficit on record -- surpassed only by January and by a record $44.9 billion shortfall posted in December.

U.S. initial jobless claims fell by 38,000 to a seasonally adjusted 405,000 for the week ended April 5, the Labor Department said. But the level remained above the key 400,000 level economists consider a weak labor market for the eighth week in a row. The four-week moving average, considered a more reliable number because it irons out the volatility in the weekly data, declined to a seasonally adjusted 419,500 from 423,250.

Comment: The price of gold edged higher as the U.S. dollar and equities markets weakened on dismal economic data. Geopolitical uncertainty remains though the war in Iraq is essentially over and many suspect that Saddam Hussein, his sons, and most of the inner circle are presumed dead. The majority of costs for rebuilding Iraq will likely be absorbed by the U.S., and that added to rising U.S. debt and a weakening economy will put even more pressure on the dollar. Gold will continue to gain interest as investors seek a safe haven as the dollar and economy continue to weaken. Physical demand remains supportive as Asian buying increases and the Hindu wedding season reaches its peak. The Russian central bank continues to add gold to reserves rather than dollars according to the most recent report. With the over abundance of dollar reserves in the world’s central banks this is one trend that is certain to continue as central banks seek diversification. Given the recent tensions between the U.S. and several other countries there exists the possibility that some central banks will be pressured to have less reliance on the dollar as a reserve asset and diversify into other currencies and gold. Given the declining value of the dollar while the global economy weakens, gold looks more attractive to the world’s bankers as it is well positioned to gain in value.


- Jon H. Warner -


E-Mail the current report to a friend or to yourself.
__________________________
Jon Warner is a professional geologist with nearly 24 years in exploration and project development in both mining and petroleum. Mr. Warner brings to the table an impressive industry contact list, thorough knowledge of the precious metals and energy markets as well as a practical understanding of gold`s role in the private investment portfolio. His strong knowledge in these fields has been demonstrated at the USAGOLD Discussion Forum where he posts on a regular basis as Black Blade.



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We invite you to stay tuned to the gold market through our DISCUSSION FORUM
featuring round the clock gold news & commentary from the public.



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[Biotechperle]

Na,da wird aber im nächsten Jahr der Einzelhandel anspringen,die Verbraucher bekommen ja so viele Steuererleichterungen




Eon erwartet im nächsten Jahr höhere Strompreise
AP

MÜNCHEN. Für 2004 sind wegen anziehender Steuerbelastungen für die Energiebranche Strompreis-Erhöhungen geplant, sagte am Mittwoch Hans-Dieter Harig, Chef des Versorgers Eon Energie. 2003 sollten die Preise nach der Erhöhung am Jahresanfang aber nicht weiter steigen. 2002 verbesserte Eon Energie das Betriebsergebnis im Vergleich zum Vorjahr um 884 Millionen Euro auf 2,9 Milliarden Euro; das ist ein Plus von 45 Prozent, bereinigt von 28 Prozent. (AP)

Gruß
Bio

[ThaiGuru]

April 10 – Gold $326.60 up $1.10 – Silver $4.44 unchanged

Gold Continues To Firm Up

"We may congratulate ourselves that this cruel war is nearing its end. It has cost a vast amount of treasure and blood. . . ."

"It has indeed been a trying hour for the Republic; but I see in the near future a crisis approaching that unnerves me and causes me to tremble for the safety of my country. As a result of the war, corporations have been enthroned and an era of corruption in high places will follow, and the money power of the country will endeavor to prolong its reign by working upon the prejudices of the people until all wealth is aggregated in a few hands and the Republic is destroyed. I feel at this moment more anxiety for the safety of my country than ever before, even in the midst of war.

God grant that my suspicions may prove groundless."

The passage appears in a letter from Abraham Lincoln to (Col.) William F. Elkins, Nov. 21, 1864.

Gold continues to firm up, but must clear $330 again to put any serious pep back into the market. The Gold Cartel spent a long time defending that area and they are at it again. Their effort becomes most apparent when eyeballing gold versus the action of the dollar.

The dollar closed today at 100.20, down .33, while the Euro finished at 107.69, up .33 . Meanwhile, the currency up north, the Canadian dollar broke out, clearing 68 key resistance. It wound up the day at 68.53, up .63. While many currencies are near their highs or making highs, against the dollar, gold is more than $60 off its high.

Gold chart:
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/63

Euro chart:
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/ED/63

Canadian Dollar chart
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CD/63

The understandable thinking for years was that gold would go up as the dollar fell. That has not been the case to any commensurate degree. Gold actually led the dollar down at the beginning of last year. Gold bolted higher and the dollar fell months later. Since that time, the Dollar Index has dropped 14%, while gold has barely budged. That’s an example of the kind of relationship breakdowns that occur when a market is manipulated.

Cargill sold 3,000 to 4,000 gold lots and the market took it very well. It is believed they were doing the trade for commodity fund mega giant, John Henry. John Henry is one of the legends in the commodity trading arena, but from what I can tell, The Gold Cartel has eaten his lunch in the gold pits the past seven years. Hard to win when the casino rigs the roulette wheel.

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

Thursday April 10 2003

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $7.47, PM $7.76, with world gold at $326.90 and $325. Well over legal import point. Reuters carries another surprisingly candid interview with Indian bullion dealers, reporting that supplies from domestic sources have dried up, necessitating increased imports:

""People who sold their ornaments to make money when prices were high have started buying again," Pawan Chokshi, a bullion dealer said from Ahmedabad, a leading import centre…. Indian imports have started increasing after gold prices fell following the entry of U.S. troops into Baghdad. Traders said around 1,000 kg of gold were being shipped into Delhi every day and the financial hub, Bombay, was buying around 700 kg..."

TOCOM initially tried to carry on the momentum inherited from NY’s boisterous session, but after a spirited opening it quickly became apparent that ready offshore offerings were going to cap the market via Trade house arbitrage at around $327, so volume slowed. The active contract closed up 10 yen and $US gold went out at $326.75, $1.35 above NY. Volume did rise 18% to the equivalent of 32,711 Comex lots; open interest was static (down 74 Comex equivalent). (NY yesterday traded 45,118 lots; open interest rose 287 lots.)

Although most observers are apprehensive about the complex of technical obstacles in the form of various moving averages and trend lines lurking in the $327-32 area, those close to the physical market seem inclined to the view upwards is the easier path:

"The gold market appeared completely devoid of selling as the shorts ran for cover in the move to the $326.50/$327.00 area."

Says Investec of yesterday’s NY breakout:

"Gold is not out of the woods yet but the price action suggests selling is clearly lacking at the lower numbers"

Amongst those willing to contemplate, for various reasons, a brighter outlook for gold is AIG’s Bernard Connolly. In a new piece "Geopolitics, the Eternal Triangle and Gold" (second attachment) he envisages, in essence, greatly intensified economic friction between America and a French dominated EU, probably ultimately involving Exchange Control in Europe.

"Ultimately, the world’s move back away from free-market capitalism will accelerate, associated with government interference in financial markets and with a narrowed palette of available stores of value. Virtually zero interest rates in most of the world economy, increased counterparty risk and restricted availability of financial instruments will be very good indeed for gold."

Connolly of course has steadily maintained an apocalyptical view of the EU. However, the events of the past few weeks are likely to have persuaded many that we indeed live in apocalyptical times. Ominously, this well informed observer sees as a major cause of US/EU friction

"the probability of ongoing US military action in various parts of the world".

This leads him to conclude:

"When combined with the likelihood that most major economies will, rather soon, have effectively zero short rates of interest and effectively strait-jacketed central banks and will be subjected to an increasing degree of bureaucratic quasi-socialism, the fundamental secular case for gold seems stronger than at any time since the late 1970s."

JB

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[charlesbronson]

Heute scheint es bergab mit Gold zu gehen.Dow und Nasdaq werden aller Vorraussicht sehr stark heute performancen.
Mal sehen,ob die 323 heute halten!!!

[ThaiGuru]

@charlesbronsen

Manchmal trügt der Schein. Das Pulver des Gold Cabal scheint gerade etwas nass zu sein.

Der Goldpreis steigt gerade wieder an!

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten/artikel-1968338.…

10.04. / 21:23

Während Investoren nach dem sich abzeichnenden Kriegsende im Irak sich wieder aus Aktien zurückziehen, scheint Gold ein Comeback zu feiern. Zuletzt kostete Gold 327$/Feinunze, was soviel bedeutet wie dass ein neues Wochenhoch markiert werden konnte.

Lediglich die Nasdaq kann nach anfänglicher Schwäche wieder zulegen und befindet sich bei 1032 Punkten leicht im Plus (+0,89%). Der Dow Jones gibt 0,12% auf 8187 Punkte nach.

Mit dem Fortschritt der Koalitionstruppen im Irak und den wachsenden Befürchtungen, dass der Ölmarkt kurzfristig an einer Überproduktion leiden werde, fiel der Mai Crude zuletzt unter die Marke von 28$/Barrel zurück.

© BörseGo

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.fondscheck.de/Analysen/default_an.asp?sub=1&paget…

11.04.2003

Goldfonds goldige Aussichten

DMEuro Fonds Aktuell

Um über 15% fiel in den vergangenen sieben Wochen der Goldpreis und pendelte sich für die Feinunze bei 330 Dollar ein, der tiefste Stand seit vier Monaten, so die Experten von "DMEuro Fonds Aktuell".

Prognosen der Experten von Gold Fields Mineral Services seien zu Beginn des Jahres noch von einem Goldpreis von über 370 Dollar bei einem länger andauernden Krieg im Irak ausgegangen. Nach einem Sechs-Jahres-Hoch von 389 Dollar für die Unze hätten Spekulationen über einen kurzen Krieg im Februar zu einer ersten Korrektur um minus 7% geführt. Gemäß Wolfgang Wilke, Leiter der volkswirtschaftlichen Abteilung der Dresdner Bank in Frankfurt, antizipiere der Goldmarkt vieles sehr früh. In der Zwischenzeit habe sich das Preisniveau stabilisiert.

Damit hätten auch die beiden besten Goldfonds der letzten Jahre PEH Q Goldmines (ISIN LU0070355788/ WKN 986366) und Merril LIIF World Gold Fund (ISIN LU0055631609/ WKN 974119), die in diesem Jahr schon elf, bzw. zwölf Prozent verloren hätten, einen Boden erreicht. Denn nach dem Krieg dürften Anleger wieder auf den längerfristigen Trend zum Gold hoffen, der sich aus einer strukturellen Knappheit errechne.

[ThaiGuru]

Wer weiss, vielleicht geht es auch noch etwas schneller, und höher als allgemein vermutet?

Gruss

ThaiGuru



http://www.ftd.de/cgi-bin/gx.cgi/AppLogic+FTContentServer?pa…

Goldexperten rechnen mit steigenden Preisen

Aus der FTD vom 12.4.2003

Der Goldpreis dürfte in diesem Jahr wieder anziehen. Obwohl sich ein rasches Ende des Irak-Kriegs abzeichnet, rechnet die Londoner Research- und Beratungsfirma Gold Fields Mineral Services (GFMS) für die zweite Hälfte 2003 mit einem erneuten Preisanstieg über die Marke von 350 $.

Artikel...
http://www.ftd.de/bm/ga/1050045563282.html?nv=cptn

[keepitshort]

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/ED08Ak01.html

America has a current account deficit to kill for. It stood at US$462 billion, or about 4.7 percent of GDP in the third quarter 2002. This is expected to hit the 5 percent mark in early 2003.

America is running the largest current account deficit ever seen. And if it doesn`t find enough foreigners to invest at home, the dollar might well have to take a knock. And attracting money isn`t easy given the plunging interest rates.

In 1985, when the current account deficit was less than it is now (as a percentage of GDP), a revision in market perceptions caused the dollar to drop from 240 to 140 against the yen and 3.3 to 1.8 against the Deutsche Mark.

So even in the post Bretton Woods floating rate world, the dollar is a hard currency which central banks around the world hold as their reserve asset.

World War II was needed to pull America out of the Great Depression of the 1930s

Since America imports a substantial amount of oil, an increase in prices would widen the current account deficit that America is running

The problems with this war bill (like all others as well) is how to pay them. The previous Gulf war was paid for in part by the allies and other gulf states.

The third option is to raise the money from abroad.A significant amount of capital flowing into the US
has come from the purchase
of dollar-denominated US securities by Asian governments

Also, a weaker dollar may prompt many central banks around the world to diversify their reserves by buying more euros.

That might well mean that European surpluses are exported not to the US (where they have gone in the 1990s) but to the rest of the world - giving the euro zone more influence in the wider world.

[ThaiGuru]

APR 11,2003 7:43 PACIFIC 10:43 EASTERN


PROFILE/ID-HECLA-MINING HL Company Profile for Hecla Mining Company

Established in 1891 in northern Idaho`s Silver
Valley, Hecla Mining Company`s rich history of mining has
distinguished it as a respected precious metals producer. Now headquartered in Coeur d`Alene, Idaho, this international, publicly traded company is 112 years old.
The best percentage stock price performer on the New York Stock Exchange during 2002, Hecla Mining Company produced 240,000 ounces of gold and 8.7 million ounces of silver last year, at very low costs of production. The average total cash cost for gold produced by Hecla in 2002 was $137 per ounce, and the average total cash cost for silver
was $2.16 per ounce. Hecla`s excellent exploration prospects, minimal debt, good cash position and growing gross profit make this a turnaround story.

Hecla mines and processes silver, gold, lead and zinc in the United States, Mexico and Venezuela. Hecla currently produces silver from three silver mines, San Sebastian, Greens Creek and Lucky Friday, as well as mining gold at the La Camorra mine. The company`s gold and silver operations are low cost, with total average cash costs in 2003 estimated at $150 per ounce of gold and $2.15 per ounce of silver.

2003 estimated production is approximately 215,000 ounces of gold and 9 million ounces of silver.

Hecla has long been well known in the United States as a major primary silver producer and quality gold producer. The name "Hecla" is commonly associated with both precious metals by investors. Hecla`s common stock trades on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol "HL."


Company: Hecla Mining Company

Headquarters Address: 6500 N Mineral Drive
Suite 200
Coeur d`Alene, Idaho 83815-9408

Main Telephone: [phone]

Website: http://www.hecla-mining.com

Type of Organization: Public

Industry: Natural Resources:

Mining/Minerals

Earnings Release Dates: 1st Quarter: May 1, 2003
2nd Quarter: July 31, 2003
3rd Quarter: November 4, 2003


Key Executives: Chairman: Arthur Brown
President: Phillips S. Baker, Jr.

Investor Relations
Contact: Vicki Veltkamp
Phone: 208-769-4144
Email: [e-mail]

Investor Relations
Contact: Jeanne DuPont
Phone: 208-769-4177
Email: [e-mail]




CONTACT: Hecla Mining Company

KEYWORD: IDAHO
INDUSTRY KEYWORD: MINING/METALS
SOURCE: Hecla Mining Company
PROFILE: YES

[ThaiGuru]

From: LeMetropoleCafe

[SNIP]
There is no source at the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) or elsewhere that reveals central bank bullion held separately from the "Gold and gold receivables" category unless the central bank chooses to report it. In other words, the cbs shield this information from their respective publics and the World. It is the way they can sell their gold and still claim the sold gold as a "Receivable" even though the leased or swapped gold may no longer exist in their inventory.

The following links will take you to the IMF`s member central bank reserves template:

http://www.imf.org/external/np/sta/ir/colist.htm
http://www.imf.org/external/np/sta/ir/aus/eng/curaus.htm

The second link is to the Australian reserves page as an example. From theselinks you can obtain the total gold reserves for the various Western central banks. It is near 33,000 tonnes not including swaps and forward sales [Which total about 16,000 tonnes at the last BIS Triennial Report-2001]. A very good review of the whole central bank gold and gold derivative situation can be found at:

http://www.goldensextant.com/commentary23.html#anchor19855

Claiming a gold swap or loan is a receivable when it has really been sold into the market subsequent to the lease is the method used by the majority of large central banks to shroud their gold transactions. The IMF`s own auditors have objected to this ruse by refusing to classify gold loans
[Santiago 1999 Statistical Accounting Conference].

Burning the Furniture

The key macroeconomic principle at work is the sale of central bank gold to support weak currencies...burning furniture to stay economically warm. It is manifestly an unsustainable policy which can only end in a unique financial disaster.
[END]

[blb]

@ThaiGuru: Hätt mal ne Frage an den Experten:

Falls ich mir physisches Gold oder Silber zulege und nach einem Kursanstieg wieder verkaufe, wie sieht es denn da aus steuerlicher Sicht aus?

Gibts da z.B. auch ne Haltefrist wie bei Aktien? Wär interessant zu wissen!

Viele Grüße
blb

[ThaiGuru]

@blb

Wie um Himmels willen kommst Du darauf, dass ich ein Experte in deutschen Steuerfragen sein könnte?

Kenne die deutschen Steuergesetze leider im Detail nicht. Auch haben mich solche Fragen nie direkt betroffen.

In Thailand gibt es keine solche Steuern, und auch eine Haltefrist gibt`s hier nicht. Aktiengewinne sind hier übrigens für Privatpersonen auch steuerfrei. Einzig bei Aktien Dividenden wird, von Steuer privilegierten
Firmen abgesehen, eine Quellensteuer von 10% abgezogen, die nächstens evtl. auch noch abgeschaft werden soll.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[Falschspieler]

Zählt zu den privaten Veräußerungsgewinnen, also wird`s (ab 500€ priv. Veräuß.-gewinne) zum Einkommen dazugerechnet.
Bei Verlusten natürlich keine Anrechenbarkeit, sonst wärs für die Finanzbehörden ja linke Tasche, rechte Tasche
Gestern kamen 500g Heraeus übrigens 4977,20€ bei der DZ-Bank (Ankauf ca. 5% weniger).
Vorgestern und heute war es sogar noch billiger.

[ThaiGuru]

Der Gold Preis zeigt heute in die richtige Richtung!

[charlesbronson]

@thaiguru
Da hab ich mich wohl getäuscht heute.Mir soll es aber recht sein.Schaun wir mal,ob die Amis heute im MInus schliessen.Eine Prognose wag ich jetzt aber lieber nicht mehr

[orkadian]

@blb

Natürlich mußt Du das versteuern.
Haltefrist ist nicht. Reines Devisengeschäft.
Bei jedem (!!) Kauf/Verkauf von Gold mußt Du in der Bank Deinen Ausweis vorlegen. Alles kontrollierbar, angeblich wegen Geldwäsche .... ?

ebay ist da anonymer , aber einen Kilobarren wirst Du da nicht los ..

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.kitco.com/ind/GoldReport/apr112003.html

Gold: Part of Every Portfolio (Streetwise: THE GOLD REPORT)



By John Embry

For The Gold Report

April 11, 2003

http://www.theaureport.com

John Embry is of President of Sprott Asset Management, in Toronto, and manager of the Sprott Gold and Precious Minerals Fund. Mr. Embry, an industry expert in precious metals, has researched the gold sector for over 30 years and has accumulated industry experience as a portfolio management specialist since 1963.

Q: Why do you think that at least a part of an investor`s portfolio should be in precious metals?

A: Basically, gold acts contrary to how financial assets act. People have forgotten that gold can be an important part of portfolios. It wasn’t important in the 1980s and 1990s, a period of disinflation, increasing productivity and great profit growth in the United States. This underwrote a terrific period in stocks and in bonds. In that environment we certainly didn’t need gold.

But what people don’t remember, perhaps because a lot of them were not around, was the decade of the 1970s when conditions were materially different. Stocks and bonds did poorly, and there was inflation and a huge budget deficit. There were a lot of things wrong in the American system and in that decade, gold went from $35/oz to $800/oz. Obviously, anyone who realized what was going on bought gold early on and made a lot of money. I would say that in the wake of the tech bubble, conditions will be much more difficult in the United States, and they begun to manifest themselves already.

This is the type of environment in which gold thrives. The budget surplus has turned into an enormous deficit, and there is a debt problem at all levels– consumer, corporate and government, and in the state government in particular. As a result there is going to be an awful lot of money printed. Because there is so much upside leverage in gold and gold shares, if you put 10% of your assets in gold, you can offset most of the problems that may be occurring in the rest of your portfolio. So, I just think in the decade of 2000 to 2010, some exposure to gold would be a very correct thing to do.

Gold is very inexpensive as a commodity right now. And it is a monetary commodity. I believe, against most currencies– particularly against the U.S. dollar, which I think is the most vulnerable – the price of gold is going to rise. And it is going to rise a lot.

Q: In your fund you invest in small to mid-cap companies. Is that where you believe the leverage is going to be, as opposed to bigger companies?

A: I think the big boys will work; you can make good money in the big stocks because they have lots of ounces in their reserves. But the real leverage will come in the smaller ones because they have growth capacity — the capacity to dramatically increase their reserve bases and increase their production. They tend to be more cheaply valued to begin with. If you can find the combination of a reasonably valued mid-cap or small-cap company with an interesting ore body that is in a growth phase, you are going to make an enormous amount on your money. We did that in the recent period, and it was interesting that very few people noticed what was going on. There wasn’t a significant inflow into gold funds. That is still to come — I believe in the next up-leg in the gold market, the public will take notice.

Q: Can you tell us about some of the companies you’re excited about?

A: Eldorado Gold Corp. (ELD.TO) has a producing mine in Brazil, but more importantly, has a very large ore body that they just completed a feasibility study on in Turkey that will be coming into production in a reasonable timeframe. And Minefinders Corp. (MFN) has been very successful. It has a large ore body, roughly 4 million ounces equivalent of gold, in their Dolores project, a gold/silver property in Mexico, which is under a feasibility study so it is well advanced. High River (HRG.TO) is basically developing and has producing mines in Russia. This still has not been fully recognized in the price and to date it has been a successful venture.

Q: Goldcorp (GG) is one of your holdings as well?

A: Yes, Goldcorp has been one of the great success stories of the gold cycle to date. They operate arguably the richest mine in the world and they are accumulating enormous amounts of cash and are very hopeful of finding greater amounts of ore in their current mine. It doesn’t have the same leverage as the others because it is expensive in relation to its existing reserves, so it is a good holding, but not something I would be looking to for maximum leverage.

Q: Any other smaller companies you’re excited about?

A: One of the names that I am excited about is Orvana Minerals Corp. (ORV.TO), which operates in Bolivia. They are just bringing a mine into production, and it will be a 70,000 ounce producer right at the start, with operating costs of probably less than $100/ounce to take it out of the ground. The greater appeal is that the ore body is open at depth and the last hole that they drilled at depth is the richest or richer than the existing ore body. There is a lot of potential at depth and a lot of potential along strike because the company, for the longest time, didn’t have enough money to explore. Now they will throw off a lot of cash flow. They also have second ore body, so that if the gold price rises into the $375 area, it represents another couple of million ounces. It has everything that I am looking for — production coming on, as well as a great amount of potential in the existing areas where production is going to be, and a secondary ore body that will provide more leverage in the event that the gold price goes higher.

One that isn’t anywhere close to production but is probably one of the most exciting plays in the world is called Southwestern Resources (SWG.TO). The company is earning a 90% interest in the Boca Project in southwest China near Kunming, a city of about 4 million people. I just returned from China where I actually observed the potential ore body. The company, headquartered in Vancouver, is run by a couple of really smart geologists who have been putting together properties from all over the world for a number of years. They generally use other people’s money to explore. This one was so exciting they are spending their own money because they want to retain the maximum exposure possible. Chinese operators already put in 133 tunnels, and these tunnels are just crawling with gold. The Chinese have a small mining operation going on and it confirms the richness of the ore. They have been drilling into the mountain and at this point, just based on what they have found already, they probably have 10 million ounces. So this is just one of the potential home runs. The price has moved up a lot - from $3 to $14, but the $14 reflects what they have already found and it is open all over the place. Again China tends to be discounted, because people are a little concerned about China, but I don’t think they should be. I think since China got into the World Trade Organization, they are taking in enormous amounts of foreign capital, and I don’t think they will start not respecting property rights. It is cheap to operate over there, obviously. I think it is a really exciting story.

NovaGold (NRI-TSX) has also been a great success. They have the Donlin Creek project that they got from Placer. Placer retained the back-in rights, but Nova Gold did a terrific job exploring the property and getting a significant resource base that they talk of in terms of 10 to 20 million ounces. Placer had an existing back-in right when they turned the property over to NovaGold and they have backed in for 70% of the property by agreeing to spend $30 million to take it to feasibility. NovaGold is not as interesting now as say, a year ago, when they went from $1 to $5, but it is still a solid story. There are a lot of ounces; even their 30% of the ore body is significant.

Another company I like is a company called QGX. It is priced around $1, which is a nice price. They have a large land spread in Mongolia, and they also have an interest in three advanced exploration prospects in the south Gobi desert of Mongolia that are being actively explored by Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. I think it is a very inexpensive exploration play and we own a lot of that stock.

Q: What about some mid-tier companies?

A: Two mid-tiers that I like are IAMGOLD Corporation (IAM) and Wheaton River (WRM.TO). And Glamis Gold (GLG), if you go up the scale a bit. Cambior is also interesting —the stock is very under-priced. There is still an issue with their hedging. We have a large position and I like it because it is very cheap and I think that the hedges will be addressed. When that happens I think that will unlock the value in the company.

Another interesting company is Central Fund (CEF-AMEX). For the bullion players, it is a very clean way to play it, a great way for individuals to buy gold and silver bullion without all the hassles of storing it. Buying and selling gold is difficult, and there is also the issue that if you buy gold certificates you don’t know if the gold that is allegedly behind thema is really there. So you want a fund where you know the gold is in the vault, with your name or the fund’s name on it. I think that what you will see in the not-too-distant future is more vehicles of this type emerging as the public begins to recognize that gold bullion is a good thing to own. Right now, the Central Fund has the stage largely to themselves.



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[blb]

Dank euch allen für die Hilfe!

[ThaiGuru]

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.usagold.com

The Afternoon Gold Report...

by Jon Warner

April 11, 2003 (usagold.com)

New York spot gold settled higher at $327.20 an ounce up 60 cents an ounce from yesterday’s close. Gold gained a renewed Fund buying. Dealers said physical buying remains strong, with good support at the $325 level. "It bounced back right away. It got down to $323.50 and in a minute it was back over $324.00," a floor broker said. "A couple of funds tried to come in and buy it, and there was nothing in the market, so it just rallied pretty quickly," he continued. Dealers said physical buying from the Middle East and Asia should prevent gold from moving below the $320-$310 area. Economic worries persist and U.S. interest rates are at their lowest in four decades, which makes non-interest bearing commodities like gold look better. "Below $325 there seems to be some pretty good bids around," said a bullion chief dealer. "We think the path of least resistance for the stock market going forward is down now that the war rally appears to have run its course and traders refocus on earnings and stock values," said Michael Armbruster, an analyst at Altavest Worldwide Trading. As result, gold is likely set to move higher, he said.

London gold was fixed this afternoon at $324.80 an ounce, down from $325.05 an ounce at the morning fixing. "Gold is likely to remain nervous for some time and with U.S. troops closing the ring around Saddam Hussein`s home town of Tikrit buying is likely to remain strong as traders position themselves ahead of a heavy weekend of fighting," said James Moore, metals analyst at TheBullionDesk.com. "Gold is likely to find continued support between $318-22 especially from the physical sector while resistance is likely to be strong ahead of the 200-day moving average at $329.30," Moore said. "Gold is continuing to rest on the upside of the developing level of technical support at $325 as attention moves to the weak state of the global economy and the lack of clarity over the post-war situation in Iraq provides further support," said Barclays Capital in a report.

Earlier spot gold in Hong Kong closed at $325.75 up $1.10 an ounce. Gold crept higher in light Asian trade on Friday but most funds and physical buyers were on sidelines ahead of weekend, uncertain whether the U.S. position in Baghdad and other areas of Iraq was secure as yet. Private Asian analysts are divided over the U.S. dollar`s postwar prospects. While some have predicted a hefty "relief rally," many say gloomy U.S. economic data, combined with Washington`s massive budget and trade deficits, point to renewed dollar weakness in the months ahead. "Gold has probably had its run and the risks are for it to fall lower, but the markets are also bearish on the dollar so the fall won`t be too great," said Paul Macarounas, associate director at NM Rothschild in Sydney. "It may start to find some equilibrium here with people unwinding safe haven Swiss positions and switching to euros," Macarounas said. "But near term it is still looking at bit wobbly," he added. "I don`t think that the dollar will be strong again, because the U.S. has to pay for the Iraq war, so it is not unreasonable to expect to see $350 in the second half of the year," said Ronald Leung, director of Lee Cheong Gold Dealers in Hong Kong. "I think the principal thing right now is the euro and what the Dow does," said Pauline Hung, chief bullion dealer at Scotia Mocatta in Hong Kong. "If it can stay above $325, then it is possible that it will test $327 or $328 later," Hung said referring to European and New York trading sessions. "In the U.S. next week there will be a number of quarterly earning releases which are going to disappoint," analysts at ANZ Global Institutional Banking said. "The negative sentiment will continue to support gold, which now excludes any war premium and reflects concerns over corporate earnings in the U.S. economy," the analysts said in a report Friday.

GEOPOLITICAL NEWS:

U.S. and Kurdish forces took Iraq`s third city of Mosul without a fight on Friday, sealing their victory in the north, but gun battles and looting continued in Baghdad in the absence of any government. Kurdish guerrillas said they would hand over the important oil hub of Kirkuk to U.S. troops later on Friday. The rich city, traditional capital of the Kurds, fell on Thursday to mixed units of Kurdish guerrillas and U.S. Special Forces.

U.S. General Tommy Franks, commander of U.S. forces in Iraq, said on Friday the leadership of the regime in Iraq was either dead or on the run. Franks was speaking to reporters on a visit to U.S. troops at Bagram air base in Afghanistan, where American and allied forces continue to track down fugitives from the Taliban regime and the al Qaeda network of Osama bin Laden. Asked about the fate of Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, Franks said: "You could easily have asked me about any particular personality and all of you, because you know me would guess the answer -- they are either dead or running like hell."

North Korean leader Kim Jong-il visited an air base just hours after Iraq`s leadership crumbled and told pilots he was confident they could "beat back the enemy," the North`s media reported on Friday. Pyongyang says it will be Washington`s next target once the war in Iraq is over, something the United States denies. Either way, foreign investors are jittery about the drawn-out crisis over North Korea`s suspected nuclear arms ambitions.

ECONOMIC NEWS:

The Labor Department`s Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the U.S. Producer Price Index, a key gauge of wholesale inflation, rose a higher-than-expected 1.5 percent in March. It was up 0.7 percent in the core rate, which excludes food and energy costs. A 3.3 percent surge in car prices was a major factor in the PPI gain. At the same time, prices for light trucks rose a record 5.2 percent.

The Commerce Department said retail purchases jumped 2.1 percent in the month, well above Wall Street analysts` expectations and the biggest monthly gain since October 2001, when sales were recovering after the Sept. 11 attacks. March sales excluding autos rose 1.1 percent. In other reassuring news, February`s sales slide was revised to a less severe 1.3 percent from the previously reported 1.6 percent.

The University of Michigan`s preliminary April index of consumer sentiment jumped to 83.2 from 77.6 in March. That final reading for March was the lowest since September 1993. Economists had forecast a rise to 78.1 for the preliminary April survey. Many people have been betting that a winding down of the war in Iraq would bolster consumer confidence, which has been at a low ebb owing to concerns about the war and how it would affect the U.S. economy.

Chief executive officers of major U.S. companies, meanwhile, are largely glum about the economy`s prospects in the months ahead, the Business Roundtable, a big business advocacy group said Thursday. "CEOs identified their greatest economic challenges as consumer uncertainty resulting from the implications of war with Iraq and terrorism, and weak consumer demand," said John Dillon, chairman of the Business Roundtable and chairman and CEO of International Paper.


Comment: The U.S. economy is showing no signs of recovery, the latest economic reports suggests is dismal performance at best. Retailers report disappointing sales figures among the nation`s largest retailers. New claims for unemployment benefits fell last week, but are still at recessionary levels with no indication of meaningful improvement. The U.S. trade deficit, while narrowing in February, was still the third highest on record. The surge in consumer sentiment is expected to be short-lived as the euphoria over the victory in Iraq subsides. Inflation appears to be on the rise again as the U.S. Producer Price Index rose 1.5% in March. The outlook for the U.S. dollar is equally grim and appears ready to fall much further. Quarterly corporate earnings reports will be released over the next few weeks and if early indications are any clue to the overall state of the corporate earnings picture then it looks like another dismal quarter and the equities markets will continue to perform poorly. Barring any extraordinary events gold will continue to react to economic data and dollar strength/weakness. Gold continues to find support on physical buying and renewed Fund interest on any sign of price weakness. Many had expectations that gold would pull back once war uncertainty was resolved but instead the focus of precious metals investors shifted to the dismal state of the economy and the weak U.S. dollar. “Real” interest rates are negative remaining stuck at multi-decade lows and with the dollar under pressure gold will likely continue to find strong support with increased physical demand on any minor price dips.


- Jon H. Warner -

Note: I will be out of town on business for the next few days and will return late next week. As the April 15 US income tax deadline approaches it is a good time to consider turning tax refund checks into gold.


E-Mail the current report to a friend or to yourself.
__________________________
Jon Warner is a professional geologist with nearly 24 years in exploration and project development in both mining and petroleum. Mr. Warner brings to the table an impressive industry contact list, thorough knowledge of the precious metals and energy markets as well as a practical understanding of gold`s role in the private investment portfolio. His strong knowledge in these fields has been demonstrated at the USAGOLD Discussion Forum where he posts on a regular basis as Black Blade.



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[ThaiGuru]

http://www.zealllc.com/2003/usdbear.htm

The US Dollar Bear

Adam Hamilton

April 11, 2003

The mighty US dollar is languishing in a primary bear market. What are the implications of this for investors in US stocks, US bonds, and gold?

Since the mighty US dollar is the de facto global reserve currency, its trading behavior is exceedingly important for investors and speculators around the world to monitor.

weiter.....
http://www.zealllc.com/2003/usdbear.htm

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.welt.de/data/2003/04/12/71462.html

Samstag, 12. April 2003 Berlin, 09:03 Uhr

"Die Weltwirtschaft schlittert in ihre zweite Rezession"

Stephen Roach, Chefvolkswirt von Morgan Stanley, sieht nach dem Ende des Irak-Kriegs noch zahlreiche Risiken für die Konjunktur

New York/Washington - Die Weltwirtschaft wird in diesem Jahr in eine Rezession gleiten; auch ein Ende des Krieges gegen den Irak werde nicht zu dem erhofften Aufschwung führen, sagt der Chefvolkswirt von Morgan Stanley, ein international bekannter Pessimist. Stephen Roach (55) fordert die Europäische Zentralbank auf, die Zinsen zu senken. Roach - ein früherer Mitarbeiter der Federal Reserve - zählt zu den weltweit einflussreichsten Ökonomen, mit ihm sprach Martin Halusa.


DIE WELT: Der IWF hat zwar seine Wachstumsprognose für die Weltwirtschaft für dieses Jahr deutlich gesenkt, glaubt aber immer noch an einen Zuwachs von 3,2 Prozent. Teilen Sie diesen Optimismus?


Stephen Roach: Natürlich nicht. Die Weltwirtschaft schlittert derzeit in ihre zweite Rezession innerhalb von nur drei Jahren. Deshalb teile ich die Ansicht nicht, dass nun alles besser werden soll, nur weil die Alliierten Badgad besiegt haben.


DIE WELT: Wie definieren Sie denn "Rezession"?


Roach: Wenn die globale Wachstumsrate unter 2,5 Prozent rutscht, ist dies eine Rezession - diese Definition wird von vielen Ökonomen geteilt. Und die derzeitige Vorhersage von Morgan Stanley beläuft sich auf 2,4 Prozent. Das ist zwar nur geringfügig unterhalb dieser Schwelle; aber wir werden unsere Prognose wahrscheinlich in den kommenden Wochen und Monaten weiter senken müssen.


DIE WELT: Welche Faktoren haben die Lage der Konjunktur in letzter Zeit so dramatisch verschlechtert?


Roach: Es gibt eine Menge Gründe. Aber in den vergangenen Monaten sind ein paar Ursachen hinzugekommen: Der hohe Ölpreis, die geopolitischen Unsicherheiten sowie in jüngster Zeit die Lungenkrankheit SARS und ihre Folgen für den asiatischen Raum - Asien war bislang die am stärksten wachsende Region der Welt. Außerdem warnen wir seit langem vor dem Ungleichgewicht, das durch die USA-zentrierte Weltwirtschaft entstanden ist. Der Rest der Welt ist viel zu abhängig von der Entwicklung in Amerika.


DIE WELT: Wie kann die Abhängigkeit von Amerika gelöst werden?


Roach: Es wäre schön, wenn Deutschland oder andere Staaten in Europa einen Weg fänden, die Nachfrage anzukurbeln - statt sich ständig auf die USA als Markt für ihre Exporte zu verlassen. Auch der IWF weist seit Jahren auf diese Ungleichgewichte in der Weltwirtschaft hin.


DIE WELT: Teilen Sie die Ansicht, dass es - ähnlich wie nach Vietnam - auch nach dem Konflikt mit dem Irak wieder zu einem Nachkriegsboom kommt?


Roach: Auf keinen Fall! Das Ende des Krieges könnte zwar zu einer gewissen Erleichterung an der Vertrauensfront führen. Aber es gibt einige ernsthafte Probleme, die schon lange vor dem Krieg existierten. Und diese Probleme werden anhalten, wenn in den Straßen von Bagdad der letzte Schuss gefallen ist.


DIE WELT: Welche Probleme sehen Sie denn beispielsweise in Europa?


Roach: Der Formalismus in Europa - die Art und Weise etwa, die Zinspolitik zu bestimmen oder die Haushaltspolitik zu gestalten -ist sehr hinderlich. Dieser Formalismus konterkariert die Bedürfnisse von Ländern wie Deutschland. Eine Formel, die für Europa gilt, muss nicht auch gut für Deutschland sein. Und wenn dies für Deutschland - die größte Volkswirtschaft in Europa - nicht funktioniert, muss wohl nochmals darüber nachgedacht werden.

DIE WELT: Sie sprachen die Zinsen an: Sollte Alan Greenspan nun schnell handeln und die Zinsen weiter senken?


Roach: Die Federal Reserve wird die Zinsen sicherlich noch ein wenig senken. Aber zuvor sollte die Europäische Zentralbanken die Zinsschraube lockern. Europa befindet sich derzeit in einem schrecklichen Zustand und braucht einen geldpolitischen Impuls noch viel eher als Amerika. In den USA war die Fed sehr aggressiv; außerdem hat die Regierung die Steuern gesenkt. In Europa gibt es hingegen kaum Bewegung - weder in der Steuer- noch in der Geldpolitik. Das ist sehr störend.


DIE WELT: Wann ist in den USA, und dort vor allem an der Börse, die Krise des Vertrauens vorüber?


Roach: Ich glaube nicht, dass wir eine tief liegende Vertrauenskrise haben. Natürlich waren die Amerikaner wegen des Krieges gegen den Irak und anderer geopolitischer Ereignisse, die mit dem Krieg in Zusammenhang stehen, verunsichert. Aber jetzt - da wir in die Nachkriegsperiode übertreten - wird das Vertrauen zurückkommen.


Artikel erschienen am 12. Apr 2003

[ThaiGuru]

Wer die Tragweite dieser IWF Meldung richtig zu interpretieren vermag, sollte vielleicht doch besser etwas physisches Gold kaufen, und im Dax short gehen. Vor allem bei den Bankaktien!

Ein schönes Wochenende wünscht Euch allen

ThaiGuru



http://www.welt.de/data/2003/04/12/71461.html

Samstag, 12. April 2003 Berlin, 09:13 Uhr

IWF: Deutsche Banken sind in "kritischer Lage"

Washington - Der Internationale Währungsfonds (IWF) fordert eine massive Reform des deutschen Bankenwesens. Hierzu gehörten eine stärkere Konsolidierung innerhalb der Branche, eine Reduzierung des Lohnkosten, eine höhere Transparenz und eine schnellere Information über den finanziellen Status der Banken - um notfalls zu kurzfristigen Lösungen zu kommen. Die Banken sollten vor allem darauf ausgerichtet sein, ihre Profitabilität zu erhöhen, schreibt der IWF in einem Kapital seines neuesten World Economic Outlook. In den vergangenen Jahren habe das deutsche Bankensystem unter schwindenden Gewinnen und der schlechten Kreditqualität gelitten.

Derzeit befänden sich die deutschen Banken in einer "kritischen Lage". Aufgrund des Booms hätten die deutschen Unternehmen außerordentlich hohe Kredite in Anspruch genommen, die nun teilweise bedroht seien. Hinzu komme, dass die Banken an einem strukturellen Problem litten. Sie hätten viel zu viele Filialen, einen zu hohen Personalbestand und seien zu wenig im Broker-Geschäft aktiv.

Die Banken seien nicht die Hauptschuldigen an der Misere, schreibt der IWF. Der Arbeitsmarkt sei nicht flexibel, was es schwierig gestalte, überzählige Mitarbeiter abzubauen. Zudem hätten private Banken Konkurrenz durch subventionierte öffentliche Banken.

Die finanzielle Lage der Kreditinstitute habe sich durch die konjunkturelle Talfahrt "ernsthaft verschlechtert". Gerade das Platzen der Börsenblase habe die Banken schwer getroffen, weil es ihnen erlaubt sei, Anteile an anderen Unternehmen zu halten. usa.

Artikel erschienen am 12. Apr 2003

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.welt.de/data/2003/04/12/71476.html

In Tokio purzeln die Aktienkurse auf ein neues 20-Jahres-Tief

Keine "Friedenshausse" in Sicht - Unsicherheiten über Konjunktur, Nordkorea und SARS - Pensionsfonds verkaufen Standardwerte

Tokio - Verkehrte Welten in Tokio. Das Ende des Irak-Krieges scheint absehbar, damit schwindet ein großer Unsicherheitsfaktor, doch der Nikkei fällt auf ein neues Zwanzig-Jahres-Tief.

Toyota Motor wird bald einen Rekordgewinn für das vergangene Geschäftsjahr verkünden, doch an der Börse wird die Aktie auf ein Sieben-Jahres-Tief getrieben. Sony beweist Woche für Woche seine Innovationskraft, doch der Titel des Elektronik-Giganten trudelt nahe an einem Vier-Jahres-Tief. Die japanische Baisse scheint kein Ende zu finden, Tokios Broker sehen anhaltenden Verkaufsdruck voraus. Man müsse damit rechnen, dass der Nikkei diesen Monat bis auf 7500 Punkte fallen könnte, meint Koichi Seki, ein Aktienhändler von Chuo Securities.

Für die schwache Tendenz werden viele Gründe genannt:

Die Bankenkrise, die nur zögerlich vorankommenden Reformen, die brisanten Spannungen mit Nordkorea sowie die wirtschaftlichen Risiken der in Asien grassierenden Lungenerkrankung SARS. Doch die derzeit gravierendste Ursache für den Kursverfall in Tokio sind die Verkäufe inländischer Pensionsfonds. "Die Pensionsfonds werfen Aktien auf den Markt", heißt es in fast allen Börsenberichten vom Freitag. Hintergrund für diese Verkäufe sind die ramponierten Vermögensanlagen der japanischen Pensionsfonds, die zum Jahresende einen Teil ihrer Verlust bringenden Papiere an eine staatliche Gesellschaft abtreten können.

Da aber noch nicht ganz klar ist, ob diese konsolidierenden Abgaben freiwillig oder unter Zwang geschehen sollen und auch die Preise für diesen "Handel" nicht feststehen, wird erst einmal verkauft. Reduziert werden die großen Positionen, Titel, die einmal heiß begehrt, für langfristig orientierte Fonds "Standardwerte erster Güteklasse" waren: Toyota, Sony, Toshiba, Ito-Yokado - und viele andere gute Namen der Japan AG.

"Standardwerte werden trotz ihrer guten fundamentalen Daten verkauft", analysiert Seki das Marktgeschehen. In normalen Zeiten biete dies Gelegenheit, zu niedrigen Kursen einzusteigen. Doch aus Furcht vor weiteren Verkaufswellen, hielten sich die Investoren zurück.

Der Nikkei sackte am Freitag um mehr als zwei Prozent ab, schloss auf 7816,49 Punkten. Das war der niedrigste Stand seit Januar 1983. Es sind vor allem die japanischen Analysten, die an ein Ende der zwanzigjährigen Talfahrt noch nicht glauben können.

Zu diesem Pessimismus gesellen sich nun auch noch die Skepsis über einen US-Konjunkturaufschwung. Zudem hatte die Fluggesellschaft Cathay Pacific erstmals in ihrer Geschichte eine "Gewinnwarnung" herausgegeben. bew

Artikel erschienen am 12. Apr 2003

[derunsichtbarefreund]

thai guru

wie schon mehrmals gesagt; es geht dem ende zu. zuerst ggaannzz langsam. es wird gelogen das sich die balken biegen. aufschwung überall

dann der erste einbruch. wird verharmlost .. soft landing

dann das finale .. jeder versucht noch das letzte zu retten.. nicht ohne vorher den "anlegern " zu erzählen, daß alles i.O. ist... wer sonst sollte noch den rest kaufen .... und dann wirds offiziell

GAME OVER... dann kann man halt kein gold/silber mehr kaufen... weils keiner mehr hergibt gegen bunte zettel

du hast mehr als ein jahr versucht die leute aufzuwecken und hast viel hohn und spott kassiert.

wenn der tag kommt, und er ist bei laibe nicht mehr weit entfernt geht alle blitzschnell und keiner kann mehr reagieren. es zählt dann was man in der hand hält und sonst gar nichts mehr. weder auf dem konto oder im schließfach

DUF

[Biotechperle]

@ThaiGuru,DUF

Diese Meldung noch als kleine Ergänzung:

Renten: Schwankungsreserve gen Minimum

Die finanzielle Lage der Rentenversicherung spitzt sich nach Presseinformationen dramatisch zu. Wie die "Stuttgarter Zeitung" unter Berufung auf Berechnungen der Bundesversicherungsanstalt für Angestellte (BfA) berichtet, waren die Reserven der Rentenkassen im März so stark abgeschmolzen, dass die vom Gesetzgeber geforderte Untergrenze erreicht sei. Die Versicherer müssen mindestens eine halbe Monatsausgabe als Reserve vorhalten.

Laut BfA-Berechnungen, die der Zeitung nach eigenen Angaben vorliegen, gibt es keinerlei Spielraum mehr. Die Schwankungsreserve habe im Februar bei 51 Prozent und im März bei 50 Prozent einer Monatsausgabe gelegen. Noch im Dezember verfügten die Versicherer über rund 9,7 Milliarden Euro oder 63 Prozent einer Monatsausgabe als Reserve. Die Höhe der Schwankungsreserve war Ende 2002 von 80 auf 50 Prozent abgesenkt worden. Anfang 2003 wurde der Rentenbeitrag von 19,1 auf 19,5 Prozent erhöht.

Gruß
Bio

[matthiasch]

es zählt dann was man in der hand hält und sonst gar nichts mehr. weder auf dem konto oder im schließfach

Sagt bloß, ihr habt die Barren im Keller!?

Lass das ja keinen erfahren, die legen euch schon wegen einem Kilo um

Unsere Gesellschaft wird immer krimineller - leider....

Gruß und schönes WE

matthiasch

[ThaiGuru]

@derunsichtbarefreund

Dein Posting #5403 zeigt, dass auch Du die Zeichen der Zeit richtig erkannt hast. Es sind ganz sicher noch einige weitere User und Leser mehr hier im Thread, die bereits wissen, oder zumindest erahnen, was auf uns zukommt, und sich mit physischem Gold abgesichert haben, oder hoffentlich bald absichern werden.

Deine eigenen Postings, und diejenigen vieler anderer Poster mit nützlichen, informativen Inhalten zum Gold-, Polit, und Wirtschafsgeschehen im Thread, dienen ja wohl ebenso der Aufklärung der vielen an Gold interessierten Leser.

Dafür möchte ich Dir, und allen anderen aktiven Usern Danken. Bei den vielen Lesern im Thread, will ich mich hiermit ebenso einmal herzlich bedanken.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

@Biotechperle

#5404

Das bedeutet dann ja wohl weitere Beitragserhöhung, oder höhere Staatszuschüsse. Der Staat muss sich noch höher verschulden.

Es brennt wirtschaftlich an allen Ecken und Enden.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

April 12 - Gold $327.20 up 60 cents - Silver $4.48 up 1 cent

But, There Is No Inflation!

"Our government ... teaches the whole people by its example. If the government becomes the lawbreaker, it breeds contempt for law; it invites every man to become a law unto himself; it invites anarchy." - Louis Dembitz Brandeis

The US economic numbers came out before I left for Montreal yesterday. The retail sales number was better than expected, but the real shocker was the Producer Price Index, which came out up 1.5% for March, with the core rate up a whopping .7%. If there ever was a bullish gold number, this was it. Market reaction: gold was hit for $1.50 almost immediately to extend pre-market losses, while the stock futures added to their pre-market gains.

This is the kind of nonsense trading action the Gold Cartel and PPT have given us for years.

For as long as I can remember, gold has been trashed on every big inflation number that should have sent gold higher. Over the last seven years, that has been a constant. It is nauseating. The bad guys lay their in wait for the number to come out to lean on gold, every time. Price action makes market commentary. If gold doesn’t move sharply higher on such news, the only conclusion for the investing public is that inflation is really no threat.

Tell that to the people living off their interest from savings. They are getting killed these days because of the surging negative interest rates in the US. Inflation is eatin’ them up, while they receive only a pittance from their money market accounts. If there ever was a case for gold to a lot higher, this is it. History tells us that. That’s why it is so upsetting to watch The Gold Cartel come in time and time again to prevent the gold price from going up much, when it really should be soaring.

Message discipline reigns. I went to Bloomberg to read the economic number write ups. This is ALL they had:

New York, April 11 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Treasuries extended declines, sending benchmark 10-year note yields to a three-week high, as a government report showed retail sales rose by the most since October 2001.

Washington, April 11 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. retail sales rebounded in March as Americans took advantage of promotions to buy more autos and returned to building-material stores with the melting of February snows. Retail sales rose 2.1 percent last month to $311.5 billion after declining a revised 1.3 percent in February, the Commerce Department said. The increase was the largest since October 2001, when automakers rolled out zero percent financing promotions in the aftermath of the terrorist attacks. Excluding autos, retail sales climbed 1.1 percent after dropping 0.6 percent. –END-

There was no write up of the Producer Price number. There is no inflation!

By the end of the day, gold managed to crawl its way back into the plus column. It still must clear the $330 to $333 area to give the bull some life. The $330 mark will take it through the downtrend line established in early February. It needs to clear $348 to put the gold bear back to sleep.

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

Friday April 11, 2003

Indian ex duty premiums: AM $6.93, PM $6.84, with world gold at $325.80 and $324.80. Continuing well above legal import point.

TOCOM was apparently completely uninspired, dispirited by the failure to break through $327 the previous day and the subsequent slight slippage in NY. Volume slumped 53% to the equivalent of only 15,421 Comex lots, the active contract dropped 4 yen and $US gold turned down at the close, losing 80c from the NY ending. However, open interest did rise markedly, by the equivalent of 1192 Comex contracts, the first increase in over a week:


“Selling from Hong Kong matched Japanese buying before early light selling from Europe saw gold drift a few cents lower.”

in UBS Warburg’s words. Japanese stocks, of course, hit another 20 year low, and there continues to be a great deal of muttering coming from the direction of the Bank of Japan about something being considered, so this space continues worth watching. (NY on Thursday traded 34, 872 contracts: open interest fell 693 contracts.)

“Gold –Gold ran into selling in front of 327.00 for the second day in a row”.

Noted ScotiaMocatta of Thursday’s trading, selling described as “significant” the previous day by Mitsui-NY: as Mitsui- London notes today

“Gold seems a little trapped here”

On the other hand, quite a serious attempt to break the metal down after the retail sales report – 17,000 contracts estimated to have traded by 10 am – was blocked by resolute buying: gold closing on its high on a fairly heavy volume, estimated 40,000 lots. (There was a time when strong activity data combined with poor inflation numbers like those published but ignored today would have boosted gold!) Richard Russell, after grumbling once again about manipulation, makes a valuable point:

“On each day gold`s close was higher than it`s opening. I have always found this kind of action bullish, and by the way this type of action can best be seen in candle-stick charts.”

This also applies to today’s’ action.

JB

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[svc]

@5406 TG:
der dank liegt ganz auf unserer seite!

;-))
svc

[ThaiGuru]

http://news.goldseek.com/CliveMaund/1050219126.php

Gold and Smaller Gold Stocks

By: Clive Maund, Diploma Technical Analysis

Some readers may recall my article of 17th March entitled “The Bottom is Probably In”, in which I made the case that we were at, or close to, a bottom. So, what has happened since? Well, gold itself has fallen some more, from $336 at the time I wrote that article, to touch approximately $324 a few days ago. The high cap. gold stocks, on the other hand have not, as a group, fallen. I included charts of a range of oversold large gold companies in that report, most of which are at about the same price, with one or two, notably DROOY, having fallen further, and one or two, notably RANGY, having risen significantly. This means that the stocks are outperforming gold, and this often precedes gold turning up. Interestingly, although the big stocks are generally at similar prices to those prevailing a few weeks ago, they are now much better placed technically for an advance, having marked out what I believe to be intermediate base patterns over the intervening weeks, with their falling 50-day moving averages now approaching their 200-day moving averages. If we are in a gold bull market, and I believe we are, what we should soon see, and I’m talking about days/weeks, is the gold stocks leap above their 50-day moving averages, then pause for perhaps several weeks, to allow this indicator to turn up, before continuing with the new intermediate uptrend, which should in due course take many stocks to new highs. I am bullish on all those large stocks in that earlier article; Harmony Gold (HMY), in particular, is at a good price now and close to strong support, having fallen from over $18 in January. In this article, I wish to focus on some interesting smaller stocks. But first of all, let’s take a look at gold itself.


















weiter...
http://news.goldseek.com/CliveMaund/1050219126.php

[Biotechperle]

@ThaiGuru #5410

Möchte mich dem Dankeschön von svc anschließen

Hier mal was anderes,ärgere mich jedes Wochenende auf`s neue über diesen Elliot-Typen bei goldseek.Geht es Euch auch so?
Der kennt immer nur eine Richtung und die ist down

XAU Index Elliott Wave Schematic Update



By: Brian C. Dobson, Elliot Wave Analyst

-- Posted Saturday, April 12 2003

Wer bezahlt bloß diese Nachtjacke?

Gruß
Bio

[ThaiGuru]

@Biotechperle

Aergern tue ich mich nicht. Es gibt nun mal Elliot Wave Anhänger die an diese Chart Technik glauben. Viel bemerkenswerter als Goldseek finde ich Stockmove.de.

Einer der grössten Elliot Bewunderer dürfte wohl Stockmove sein, der es immer noch nicht aufgegeben hat in diesem Forum für seine eigene Homepage Werbung zu machen. Vermutlich mangels zahlender Kunden, ist der Zugang zu seinen goldpessimistischen Kommentaren jetzt wieder kostenlos geworden.

Der Stockmove, man glaubt es kaum, sieht auch einen erstarkenden Dollar mit weiterem Potenzial nach oben.
Gold wird auf 293.- Dollar fallen, glaubt der Ellioter Stockmove. Dass dieser Ellioter den ganzen Goldpreis Anstieg auf 388.- verschlafen hat, vergisst er natürlich zu erwähnen.

Er macht sich auch lustig über Gold Bugs, und hat wohl von dem was mit dem Goldpreis wirklich geschah, und noch geschehen wird, rein gar nichts verstanden.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.ftd.de/bm/ma/1050045566547.html?nv=cd-divnews

Aus der FTD vom 14.4.2003

Edelmetalle: Nach dem Krieg bewegt die Konjunktur den Goldpreis

Von Wolfgang Wrzesniok-Roßbach

Auf die Entwicklungen in Irak haben die Aktienmärkte in der vergangenen Woche mit Kursgewinnen reagiert. Anleihen, Euro und Gold standen dagegen auf der Verliererseite.

Der Goldpreis gab zeitweise bis auf 318,75 $/Unze nach, dies war der tiefste Stand seit dem 3. Dezember. Gewinnmitnahmen bei Aktien sorgten aber für einen Stimmungsumschwung. Am Freitag notierte der Goldpreis bei 328,50 $.

Marktteilnehmer rechnen damit, dass Konjunkturdaten wieder zunehmend in den Mittelpunkt des Interesses der Märkte rücken werden.

Eine negative Entwicklung hier könnte den Goldpreis auf über 350 $ im zweiten Halbjahr steigen lassen. Für diese Woche erwarten Händler eine Handelsspanne zwischen 320 und 330 $. Die Dollarentwicklung könnte hier wesentliche Impulse setzen.

Steigender Preis für Silber

Platin rutschte mit 606 $/Unze zeitweise auf den tiefsten Stand seit Januar dieses Jahres. Allerdings gab es auch hier Erholung. Zum Wochenende kostete die Unze 625 $. Analysten sehen einen Anstieg auf bis zu 640 $, sollte der Euro weiter zulegen.

Mit 4,51 $/Unze notierte Silber am Dienstag zeitweise so hoch wie seit Mitte März nicht mehr. Auftrieb gab es vor allem durch Käufe von Marktteilnehmern, die ihre Minuspositionen schlossen, nachdem sie von dem steigenden Silberpreis überrascht worden waren.

Wolfgang Wrzesniok-Roßbach ist Leiter Edelmetall- und Rohstoffhandel bei Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein.

© 2003 Financial Times Deutschland

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.welt.de/data/2003/04/14/72791.html

Ungewisser Verlauf der SARS-Epidemie alarmiert die Börsianer

Die Kolumne

von Marc Faber

Eher selten sind Börsianer und Manager gezwungen, sich mit medizinischen Fragen zu beschäftigen. Die SARS-Epidemie stellt eine dieser Ausnahmen dar, und zwar eine sehr gravierende. Das so genannte Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, das aus Südchina stammt und wahrscheinlich aus einem viralen oder bakteriellen Organismus besteht, der ursprünglich von Schweinen auf Menschen übertragen wurde, hat sich in Hongkong schnell verbreitet und die normalerweise hyperaktive Stadt mit rund sieben Millionen Einwohnern beinahe lahm gelegt.

Hotels, die zu dieser Jahreszeit üblicherweise eine Auslastung von rund 75 Prozent aufweisen, sind heute nur zu 15 Prozent besetzt. Restaurants stehen leer, die Detailhandelsumsätze sind in den vergangenen Wochen um rund 50 Prozent gefallen. Die Anzahl der Flüge in und aus Hongkong wurde um rund 20 Prozent gestrichen, Konferenzen und Messen mussten abgesagt werden. Auch das Nachtleben hat gewaltig gelitten: Schließlich ist es weder bequem noch sexy, mit einer Stoffmaske zu trinken, zu essen, zu rauchen und zu küssen.

Das Problem mit SARS ist, dass man zur Zeit sehr wenig über die Natur der Seuche und die Art der Ansteckung weiß. Daher ist die Bevölkerung von Hongkong und jetzt auch zunehmend von anderen asiatischen Ländern höchst beunruhigt. Die Menschen reisen weniger, was für den Tourismus in der Region einen verheerenden Rückschlag bedeutet. Zudem hat China ein Verbot für Reisen nach Malaysia, Thailand und Singapur erlassen, um gegen diese Länder Vergeltung zu üben, weil sie die "Impertinenz" hatten festzustellen, dass SARS ursprünglich aus China stammt. SARS ist für Hongkong und die asiatische Region eine wesentlich größere Katastrophe als der Krieg im Irak, weil je nach Land und Stadt die Fremdenverkehrsbranche für zehn bis 30 Prozent des Bruttosozialprodukts verantwortlich ist.

Nun werden die Optimisten bemerken, dass SARS bloß eine temporäre Seuche ist, die entweder bald verschwindet oder gegen die man rasch Impfungen erfinden wird. Es könnte so kommen. Aber es ist auch denkbar, dass SARS etwas Bösartigeres ist, sich weltweit rasch verbreitet und für längere Zeit die Reiselust unterbindet. Ferner ist es möglich, dass die SARS-Epidemie bald "ins Leere läuft", weil sich das Immunsystem des Menschen nach einem anfänglichen Schock anpasst und Abwehrkörper bildet, die die Infektion erfolgreich bekämpfen. Dann aber könnte es passieren, dass das SARS-Virus oder die Bakterien rasch mutieren und zu einer neuen, noch schlimmeren Epidemie führen. Epidemiologen haben schon nach der Vogel-Epidemie ("bird flu"), die 1997 in Hongkong ausbrach und zur Tötung von 1,2 Millionen Hühner führte, darauf hingewiesen, dass es nur eine Frage der Zeit sei, bis eine neue, wesentlich gefährlichere aus Südchina stammende Seuche sich verbreiten würde.

Für den Anleger ist der zukünftige Verlauf der SARS-Epidemie natürlich von großer Bedeutung. Sollte SARS ähnliche Ausmaße annehmen wie die aus der Mongolei im Jahre 1346 nach Europa eingeschleppte Pest, die innerhalb von wenigen Jahren rund ein Drittel der Bevölkerung tötete, dann dürfte dies schwerwiegende wirtschaftliche und finanzielle Folgen haben. Nicht nur für die Region Asien, sondern für die gesamte Welt.


Artikel erschienen am 14. Apr 2003

[ThaiGuru]

[ThaiGuru]

Angebliche US-„Drohkulisse“ vor Syrien

US-Verteidigungsminister Donald Rumsfeld wirft Syrien weiter vor, Irak „en gros mit Waffen versorgt zu haben, Massenvernichtungswaffen zu besitzen und Kontakte zu Terroristen zu pflegen“. Jetzt sollen angeblich neue Truppen und schweres militärisches Gerät in aller Stille an der Westgrenze zu Syrien im irakischen Raum um Ar Rutbah zusammen gezogen worden sein. Das soll ein US-General im vertraulichen Gespräch mit der Nachrichtenagentur ddp bestätigt haben.

Nach Informationen unter Berufung auf Geheimdienst-Kreise seien „Panzerknacker“ A-10 Thunderbolt-Kampfflugzeuge, schwere Panzer M1 „Abrams“, Kampfhubschrauber AH-64D „Apache“ und umfangreiche Bomben-Arsenale im Grenzgebiet. In der Washingtoner Administration wird über den Aufmarsch gegen Syrien allerdings zunächst nur von „einer Drohkulisse“ gesprochen.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.handelsblatt.com/hbiwwwangebot/fn/relhbi/sfn/buil…

Montag, 14. April, 08:30 Uhr

Firmenbilanzen enttäuschen


Wenig Hoffnung für japanische Aktien


Von Nicole Bastian, Handelsblatt


Die realen Wirtschaftsdaten entwickeln sich derzeit in Japan besser als in vielen anderen Ländern. Dennoch fällt der Nikkei auf ein neues 20-Jahrestief. Langfristig scheinen die Investoren wenig Vertrauen in die japanische Wirtschaftsentwicklung zu haben. Experten erwarten bereits weitere Kursrückgänge.



TOKIO. Viele Monate galt die Marke von 8 000 Punkten als unteres Limit für den Nikkei-Index aus 225 führenden Aktienwerten. Fällt das Börsenbaromter darunter, würde es für die Banken in Japan knapp, hieß es bei einigen Analysten. Nun wird bereits über die Marken von 7 500 oder gar 7 000 Punkten und deren Auswirkungen spekuliert. Die Analysten sind einmal mehr auf der Suche nach neuen Unterstützungslinien. Nach einem kleinen Zwischenhoch, das die Regierung den Banken und Unternehmen pünktlich zum wichtigen Buchungstag 31. März durch kurzfristige Regeländerungen bescherte, hat der Nikkei-Index aus 225 führenden Aktienwerten die 8 000-Marke wieder schnell nach unten durchbrochen. Mit traurigen 7 816 Punkten startet der Nikkei in die Woche (– 2,1 %). So niedrig stand er zuletzt im Januar 1983.

Trotz aller realwirtschaftlicher Probleme im Land des Lächelns scheint die schlechte Entwicklung am Aktienmarkt verwunderlich. Die Industrieproduktion etwa habe sich in den vergangenen Monaten besser als in den USA entwickelt, argumentieren Analysten. Die Schätzungen für die Entwicklung des Bruttoinlandsprodukts werden derzeit eher herauf- als herabgesetzt. Großunternehmen wie die Technologiefirmen sind auf Erholungskurs.

Die Aktienbewertungen seien derzeit auffällig nach unten verzerrt, sagt Ökonom Chotaro Morita von der Deutschen Securities. Langfristig scheinen die Investoren wenig Vertrauen in die japanische Wirtschaftspolitik und -entwicklung zu haben. Neben der anhaltenden Verunsicherung über die Schwierigkeiten im Banken- und Versicherungsgewerbe drücken jedoch auch andere, eher technische Faktoren auf die Kurse, und dürften dies in den kommenden Wochen weiter tun.

Da sind zum einen massive Umschichtungen in den Pensionsfonds. Viele Firmen verwalten bisher in ihren Pensionsfonds den staatlichen Rentenanteil für Arbeitnehmer mit. Wegen der fallenden Kurse belasteten Verluste daraus die Bilanzen. Vor zwei Jahren hat die Regierung den Rücktransfer dieses staatlichen Anteils erlaubt. Dafür müssen Papiere verkauft werden, denn die Gewichtung des vom Wohlfahrtsministerium betriebenen Rentenfonds ist eine andere. Global tätige Unternehmen wie Toyota oder Honda seien in den privaten Rentenfonds übergewichtet, erläutert Aktienstratege Kiichi Fujita von Merrill Lynch. Entsprechend lastet auf ihnen der Verkaufsdruck. Die Sony-Aktie etwa verlor in der vergangenen Woche fast 9 %, Fuji Photo 14 %. Von den Umschichtungen profitieren im Gegenzug die Aktien kleinerer und mittelgroßer Unternehmen. Während der Index für Großunternehmen innerhalb des breit gestreuten Topix-Index in den vergangenen drei Monaten stark gefallen ist, legte der für Small Caps zu. Wegen deren geringen Gewichtung unter den rund 2 000 Werten im Topix fiel der Gesamtindex aber. Er ging mit 782 Punkten in die Woche. Einige Beobachter sehen den Höhepunkt der Aktienverkäufe für Pensionsumschichtungen erst einmal erreicht. Fujita ist jedoch überzeugt, dass die Verkäufe die Kurse noch weiter belasten und den Nikkei im schlimmsten Fall auf 7 500 Punkte drücken könnten.

Auch ausländische Investoren trennen sich von Aktien. Mit dem Beginn des neuen Geschäftsjahres haben zudem die Banken wieder angefangen, Papiere zu verkaufen. Die Regierungsvorgabe, dass sich die Banken von den Paketen trennen müssen, während sie die faulen Kredite abbauen, wird zunehmend kritisiert. Die Regierung, meinen Analysten, sei zudem derzeit zu sehr mit sicherheitspolitischen Fragen beschäftigt.

„Solange die Regierungsvertreter immer nur den Satz wiederholen, dass die Kurse nicht die Fundamentaldaten widerspiegeln, sind die Chancen auf eine genuine Verbesserung der Situation null“, sagt Morita von der Deutschen Securities.

[ThaiGuru]

Für diejenigen Leser, denen meine früheren Postings nicht bekannt sind. 3M ist die am stärksten gewichtete Aktie im Dow. Durch Unterstützung der Kurse von 3M wurde der Dow Index in der Vergangenheit manipulativ oben gehalten. Haupsächlich diesem Umstand haben wir es zu verdanken, dass der Dow nicht schon lange viel weiter gefallen ist. Habe vor zig Monaten schon darauf hingewiesen, dass die Firma 3M, der Auslöser eines grossen Falles des Dow sein dürfte.

Dass jetzt endlich der Kurs von MMM den Analysten langsam "unheimlich" erscheint, ist sicher nicht verwunderlich. Verwunderlich ist für mich nur wie lange sie gebraucht haben, um zu diesem Schluss zu kommen.

Wenn 3M anfängt auf einen angemessenen Kurs zu fallen, sehen wir ruckzuck einen Dow von 6xxx. Dass in so einem wahrscheinlichen Fall die Goldpreise massiv anziehen dürften, Gold Cabal hin oder her, sollte eigentlich auf der Hand liegen.

Gruss

ThaiGuru



http://www.handelsblatt.com/hbiwwwangebot/fn/relhbi/sfn/buil…

Montag, 14. April, 08:22 Uhr

Aktie unter der Lupe

3M wird den Analysten langsam unheimlich

Von Gerhard Mauerer, Handelsblatt

Der US-Mischkonzern 3M hat in den vergangenen Jahren kaum einen Aktionär enttäuscht. Seine Prognosen hielt das Unternehmen immer ein, meist übertraf es sie sogar. Der Aktienkurs spiegelt die Zuverlässigkeit wider: Seit Jahrzehnten steigert das Unternehmen seinen Börsenwert. Analysten raten, jetzt Gewinne mitzunehmen.



FRANKFURT/M. Die Entwicklung des Aktienkurses des US-amerikanischen Mischkonzerns 3M ist mehr als beeindruckend. Der Aufwärtstrend der Aktie ist seit 1982 intakt. Seit Beginn der Börsenbaisse im März 2000 hat das Papier seinen Wert um zwei Drittel gesteigert. Der US-Standardwerteindex Dow Jones, dem das früher als Minnesota Mining and Manufacturing Company bekannte Unternehmen angehört, büßte in diesem Zeitraum fast ein Drittel seines Wertes ein. Doch obwohl 3M unter Experten als hervorragendes Unternehmen gilt, raten sie vom Kauf der Aktie ab. Der Konzern sei mit einer Marktkapitalisierung von über 50 Mrd. Dollar zu hoch bewertet.

weiter...
http://www.handelsblatt.com/hbiwwwangebot/fn/relhbi/sfn/buil…

[ThaiGuru]

Zusatz zu #5419

Sollte von Seite interessierter Kreise, die Gewichtung von MMM im Dow vor dem zu erwartenden Fall geändert werden, würde das von mir erwartete Szenario natürlich nicht so eintreten, wie bei der heutigen Gewichtung. Jedoch wäre die Manipulation der Märkte so offensichtlich, dass selbst der grossen Masse die Augen aufgehen sollten, und der letzte Rest von Verstrauen in eine freie Marktwirtschaft, verschwinden dürfte.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.nationalpost.com/financialpost/story.html?id=6A8E…

John Embry digs in on gold

Veteran fund manager is `reinvigorated` by move to Sprott Asset

William Hanley
Financial Post

Saturday, April 12, 2003
ADVERTISEMENT


John Embry has been following gold for more than 30 years, so he`s not overly concerned on this day at Reds Bistro just off Bay Street when Lunch Money notes that the bullion price has dipped below US$320 an ounce from near US$390 earlier in the year. "The volatility in this area never fails to amaze me," he says as we settle into a booth in the airy upstairs dining room, a favourite luncheon spot of his -- and ours, too.

"I thought it would correct back around US$350," he concedes. "But we`re in a gold bull market and we`ve seen the first leg and this is the first correction. We`re certainly getting rid of the Johnny-come-latelys and the nervous Nellies."

At 62 and with almost 40 years in the money-management business, this Embry is no Johnny-come-lately. Unless, that is, we`re talking about his surprising late-career move from Royal Bank of Canada, where as vice-president of equities he earned a sterling reputation for running the top gold fund, across the Street to Sprott Asset Management Inc., where he was recruited in March by chairman and CEO Eric Sprott to become president of the company and manager of its gold and precious minerals fund.

To their and their clients` good fortune, they have both been bears on the general stock market and the U.S. economy. "I knew what Eric`s view had been in the past three years and it certainly meshed with my view of the world," Embry says.

While the lead-up to war in Iraq and the conflict itself have been distorting factors, they are merely a "little noise" around the basic fundamentals of gold, which are that U.S. interest rates are flat to negative and the U.S. dollar is extraordinary vulnerable in the post-bubble world, that the era of outperformance for financial assets is over. "And these are extremely gold-friendly items," he says, adding that the gold stocks are "digging in at this level."

So friendly were they that Embry`s Royal Bank precious metals fund returned 153% after fees last year - the third year of the bear market in stocks generally - and Sprott`s various investment vehicles were not far behind for the third year of great outperformance.

Now, though, the Sprott funds are down across the board for the first quarter and a few clients are slightly nervous.

"The problem is when you start off the year with negative returns, that looks worse than when you have two negative months in the middle of the year after you`ve had good months," he says. "People just have to go back and look at the returns [Eric Sprott has] generated since inception. And you either believe him or you don`t."

We haven`t even looked at Reds` menu yet, but, typically, Embry knows what he wants.

"I`ve never had a bad meal here," he says, ordering the applewood smoked chicken penne with peppers, spinach, mushrooms in a chardonnay cream sauce, accompanied by a glass of robust cabernet sauvignon.

We go for the bronzed pacific black cod with a saffron dill cream, served with sauteed leeks and herb whipped potatoes. We surprise ourselves by ordering a glass of chardonnay. But there are no surprises with the food. It is very good, as usual.

A native Winnipegger, Embry began his career at GreatWest Life in the 1960s and joined United Bond & Share in the 1970s. It was folded into Royal Bank 15 years ago as the nucleus of its investment subsidiary.

If he hasn`t seen it all in the investing world, he`s seen plenty enough to make him certain what he`s seeing now.

"We`re in a secular bear market. We had an extended period of abnormally high returns in stocks and bonds. It was unsustainable. There would come a period when you get negative real returns, as you did in the `70s. Now I`m afraid you`re back in a period when you`re going to get terrible returns on most of your assets."

Eric Sprott saw that happening and with perfect timing just as the dot-com bubble was about to burst in early 2000, he changed his whole operation to a money-management firm specializing in hedge funds and precious metals funds.

"He`s one of the real virtuosos in this business," Embry says of Sprott. "And I know them all. He`s a man of great intellect and sees things clearly. More important, he acts on what he sees."

Indeed, Eric Sprott was bullish all the way up in the bull market, staying with the company slogan, "We remain bullish" right to the end of 1999, when he turned flat-out bearish.

Which is where he and John Embry remain today, except for gold, gold stocks and special undervalued situations for the company`s equity fund.

They and a small minority of money managers believe we`ve had the biggest financial bubble in history and it must be followed by one of the longest, ugliest bear markets as a result.

"But the thing that`s remarkable," Embry says, warming up to his topic and his big plate of pasta, "is as ugly as it`s been, confidence in the market remains terribly high in the face of what I believe is obvious economic deterioration, profit problems of a serious nature and a debt structure that`s unprecedented."

So he remains comfortable holding a "minority view" even in the face of the "Wall Street marketing machine" holding steady to the bullish view through three straight years of stock market losses.

And yet he concedes he`s surprised that with the amount of attrition in the market and to the degree that people were exposed to stocks and those big losses, that there hasn`t been more financial and economic fallout.

"The economy has been better until recently than I would have guessed. The consumer has hung in there. I don`t know whether he`s like Wile E. Coyote off the cliff and his feet are going and he doesn`t know he`s in trouble yet. It takes time to unravel and we haven`t done it yet."

Which, as always, brings us back to gold. Embry says the fall in the gold stocks foretold what has subsequently happened to the bullion price.

"It just means you`re going to make more money from US$320 than you would if it had stopped [falling] at US$350 or US$360."

Spoken like a true gold lover -- one who believes that it`s going over US$400 and aiming for US$500 -- and that the best way to play it is to take big positions in stocks with great upside leverage to a higher price, the small producers and those in the development stage with big ore bodies and good people. He particularly likes Southwestern Resources Corp. (SWG/TSX), and among the mid-caps, Goldcorp Inc. (G/TSX) and IAMGOLD Corp. (IMG/TSX).

We`ve had a great lunch at Reds -- the food, the wine, the seamless service. Over coffee, John Embry, who joined Sprott Asset Management on his 62nd birthday March 1, declares: "I`m feeling reinvigorated."

And he has some last words that are particularly relevant to Lunch Money, who is heading toward 60.

"There`s a time in life to make money and there`s a time in life to keep money," he says. "Right now, we`re in the latter stage. What you`re trying to do is maintain your purchasing power."

[e-mail]

[ThaiGuru]

Eine Meldung zum "Wirtschaftsaufschwung"



http://www.swissinfo.org/sde/Swissinfo.html?siteSect=143&sid…

Montag 14.04.2003

Traditionskonzern Grundig meldet Insolvenz an

MÜNCHEN - Nach jahrelanger vergeblicher Suche nach einem finanzstarken Investor hat der deutsche Grundig-Konzern Insolvenz angemeldet. Das hoch defizitäre Traditionsunternehmen beschäftigt noch rund 3500 Mitarbeiter.

«Wir haben Antrag auf Insolvenz gestellt,»

sagte Grundig-Finanzchef Günter Moissl zu Reuters. Weitere Angaben machte er nicht. Ein Sprecher der Nürnberger Justiz bestätigte den Eingang des Antrags. Das zuständige Gericht werde im Laufe des Vormittags darüber entscheiden.

Grundig hatte über Jahre nach einem finanzstarken Partner gesucht, um sein Überleben zu sichern. Mit dem türkischen TV-Geräte-Hersteller Beko war am vergangenen Montag der zweite potenzielle Käufer innerhalb eines guten Monats abgesprungen.

Wie Finanzkreise berichten, hatten die Geld gebenden Banken zu Wochenbeginn entschieden, bestehende Kredite nicht weiter zu verlängern.

Das 1945 von Max Grundig gegründete Unternehmen kämpft seit Jahren mit Verlusten und litt in den 80-er und 90-er Jahre unter den zahlreichen Änderungen im Eigentümerkreis. Heute ist der Konzern nur noch ein Schatten seiner selbst.
Ende der 80-er Jahre hatte Grundig rund 38 000 Mitarbeiter beschäftigt. Mehrfach stand das Unternehmen in der Vergangenheit vor dem Konkurs. Stets konnte dann - meist unter Vermittlung der Bayerischen Staatskanzlei - noch in letzter Minute eine rettende Lösung gezimmert werden.
Anfang des Jahres hatte noch alles danach ausgesehen, als ob Grundig endlich den seit Jahren ersehnten Investor gefunden hätte. In einer feierlichen Zeremonie unterzeichneten Vorstand und das Management des taiwanischen Elektronikkonzerns Sampo einen Übernahmevertrag.

«Die Zukunft des Unterhaltungselektronikkonzerns Grundig ist gesichert», hatte der Rosenheimer Antennenbauer Anton Kathrein, der 89 Prozent am Unternehmen hält, damals gesagt. Doch zwei Monate später platzte der Deal. 141011 apr


SDA-ATS

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.swissinfo.org/sde/Swissinfo.html?siteSect=143&sid…

Montag 14.04.2003

Tokioter Aktienmarkt fällt auf neues 20-Jahrestief

TOKIO - Skepsis der Anleger über eine nachhaltige Erholung der US-Konjunktur hat den Tokioter Aktienmarkt auf ein neues 20-Jahres-Tief gedrückt. Die Aktienmärkte in Hongkong und Singapur leiden zudem unter den wirtschaftlichen Folgen der Lungenkrankheit SARS.
Das offenbar bevorstehende Ende des Irak-Krieges hat der Börse in Südkorea aber zu Gewinnen verholfen und den Ölpreis gedrückt. Dagegen hat sich der Dollar angesichts der überraschend positiven US-Verbraucherdaten vom Freitag etwas erholt.

Laut Händlern konzentriert sich die Aufmerksamkeit der Anleger in dieser Woche vor allem auf die anstehenden Quartalsergebnisse von US-Unternehmen. Die am Freitag veröffentlichten, unerwartet positiven Daten zum US-Einzelhandelsumsatz und zum Konsumentenvertrauen legen den Schluss nahe, dass die US-Wirtschaft in einem besseren Zustand sein könnte, als von Analysten erwartet.
«Die grössten Investoren werden sich zumeist zurückhalten bis die Quartalsergebnisse führender US-Unternehmen wie Intel oder Mircrosoft und anderer in dieser Woche vorgelegt werden», sagt Tsuyoshi Segawa, Stratege bei Shinko Securities.

Der Nikkei-Index ist bis kurz vor Schluss um 0,25 Prozent auf 7795,20 Punkte gefallen, nachdem er bereits am Freitag sein tiefstes Niveau seit 20 Jahren erreicht hatte.

Der Dollar kletterte geringfügig auf 120,68 von 120,45 Yen im späten New Yorker Handel am Freitag. Der Euro notierte bei 1,0735 (New Yorker Schluss 1,0745) Dollar und damit auf dem Niveau des EZB-Referenzkurses von 1,0735 Dollar.
Der Ölpreis fiel angesichts der Hoffnungen auf ein rasches Kriegsende weiter. Leichtes US-Öl verbilligte sich um 1 Prozent auf 27,86 Dollar.

Der Goldpreis fiel auf 326,65 von 327,80 Dollar am Freitag. 140812 apr


SDA-ATS

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.fondscheck.de/Analysen/default_an.asp?sub=2&paget…

10.04.2003

Goldpreis Doppelboden gebildet

Der Gold-Report

Wie die Experten von "Der Gold-Report" berichten enttäuschte der Goldpreis seit Kriegsbeginn zahlreiche fundamental überzeugte Goldanleger.

Immerhin scheinen nun wieder verstärkt asiatische Händler als Käufer auf dem Goldmarkt aufzutreten, so die Experten. Auch aus Indien seien Goldaufstockungen bestätigt worden. Grund für die nachgebenden Goldnotierungen sei die grundsätzlich zu schwache Gesamtnachfrage, obwohl einige große Goldkonzerne massiv mit Werbekampagnen für Goldschmuck in die Medien gingen. Der Irak-Krieg führe in den kommenden Wochen möglicherweise zu einer anhaltenden Zurückhaltung der Goldanleger.

Spätestens bei einem Goldpreisanstieg über 328 bzw. 330 US-Dollar würden jedoch wieder neue spekulative Longpositionen aufgebaut werden, um die nächste Aufwärtsbewegung nicht zu verpassen.

In den vergangenen Tagen habe der Goldpreis einen Doppelboden bei 319/320 Dollar gebildet. Spekulative Investoren könnten erste Call-Positionen mit mittelfristigen Laufzeiten aufbauen. Klare Kaufsignale würden bei einem Ausbruch über 330 US-Dollar generiert.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.newsalert.com/bin/story?StoryId=CpPOYqbKbytu2mJC&…

News

April 14, 2003

Cambior Reports Its First Quarter 2003 Production Results and the Resumption of Full Operations at Doyon LONGUEUIL, Quebec--(BUSINESS WIRE)--April 14, 2003----Cambior (AMEX:CBJ)(TSX:CBJ):

All amounts are expressed in US dollars

Production Highlights

For the first quarter of 2003, gold production totaled 133,900 ounces of gold, compared to 149,100 ounces of gold produced in the corresponding quarter of 2002. The decrease in gold production is due to lower production at the Omai mine, as scheduled in the mining plan, and different quarterly profiles, but similar yearly production for the other operations. For the first quarter of 2003, gold production from the Omai mine was 3 % higher than expected. This excellent performance is mainly due to a higher grade and milling rate. Despite the breakdown of the production hoist at Doyon on February 28, 2003, the Canadian operations achieved their budgeted production due to higher milled grades and tonnages at the Mouska and Sleeping Giant mines.

Full Resumption of Activities at the Doyon Mine

Cambior is pleased to announce that repair work on the production hoist at the Doyon mine are now completed, two weeks earlier than had been originally anticipated when the breakdown occurred on February 28, 2003. Hoist operational tests as well as safety control tests have been successfully completed. Ore hoisting from underground at the Doyon mine began on last April 11th at normal capacity and underground operations are back at full rate.

The 125 unionized and non-unionized employees who were temporarily laid off because of the hoist breakdown have now been recalled and resumed their work. The Company would like to thank all its employees, as well as its suppliers, for their support during this period.

Due to the expediency with which the production hoist was repaired and the excellent performance of the Mouska mine, located adjacent to the Doyon mine, the shortfall of gold production for the Doyon Division will be only 2,000 ounces, half of the previously announced shortfall.

Update on the Rosebel Gold Project

During the first quarter of 2003, the Company completed the financing documentation and obtained the political risk insurance required for the Rosebel gold project. After construction and mining equipment had arrived on site early in the year, construction activities focused on the permanent camp, road access to the various project sites, surveying and clearing of the corridor for the 38-km long-transmission line, and ground leveling for the mill and plant sites. Foundations for the grinding mill and the grinding sector also progressed during the quarter. Detailed engineering is approximately 60-70 % complete and substantive pieces of equipment have been purchased and are being expedited in a timely basis.

As of the end of the first quarter of 2003, a total of approximately $20 million has been spent on the development and construction of the Rosebel project and current commitments amount to $21 million. Currently 425 construction employees are working on site.

During 2003, Cambior will focus on the development of the Rosebel gold project at an estimated capital cost of $95 million. The Company is looking forward to bringing the Rosebel project into commercial production during the first quarter of 2004. It is estimated that Rosebel will produce 269,000 ounces of gold in its first year of operation at a mine operating cost of $157 per ounce, boosting Cambior`s gold production to over 700,000 ounces of gold in 2004.

Outlook

Louis P. Gignac, Cambior`s President and Chief Executive Officer, stated: "Despite the breakdown of the production hoist at Doyon, we met our quarterly gold production due to good performance at all of our operations. For the current year, we maintain our gold production target of 522,000 ounces. The pace of the construction work at Rosebel is in line with our schedule and budget. Construction activities will continue to build up until July and activities will proceed at full rate until November, at which time the mill, pits and other facilities will be completed and ready for commissioning by the end of the fourth quarter of 2003.``

Cambior Inc. is an international gold producer with operations, development projects and exploration activities throughout the Americas. Cambior`s shares trade on the Toronto (TSX) and American (AMEX) stock exchanges under the symbol "CBJ". Cambior`s warrants, "CBJ.WT.B", trade on the TSX.

The first quarter financial results are scheduled for release on May 9, 2003 at the Company`s Annual General Meeting of Shareholders which is being held at the Marriott Chateau Champlain in Montreal at 11:00 am.

Caution Concerning Forward-Looking Statements

This press release contains certain "forward-looking statements", including, but not limited to, the statements regarding construction schedule, future production targets, capital expenditures (including those of the Rosebel project) and work programs. Forward-looking statements express, as of the date of this press release, the Company`s plans, estimates, forecasts, projections, expectations or beliefs as to future events or results. Forward-looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties, and there can be no assurance that such statements will prove to be accurate. Therefore, actual results and future events could differ materially from those anticipated in such statements. Risks and uncertainties that could cause results or future events to differ materially from current expectations expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to mining risks, risks associated with foreign operations, environmental risks and hazards, uncertainties as to calculation of mineral reserves, risks of delays in constructions and other risks referred to in Cambior`s Annual Information Form filed with the Securities Commissions of all provinces in Canada, and with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission, as well as the Toronto Stock Exchange and the American Stock Exchange.


TABLE 1

----------------------------------------------------------------------
----------------------------------------------------------------------

First Quarter

(Cambior`s share) 2003 2002

----------------------------------------------------------------------
GOLD

Omai
Production (ounces) 74,400 82,000
Tonnage milled (t) 1,752,000 1,931,200
Grade milled (g Au/t) 1.47 1.42
Recovery (%) 90 93

Doyon (1)
Production (ounces) 51,800 58,100
Tonnage milled (t)
Underground mines 256,700 311,400
Low-grade stockpile 55,000 8,200
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Total 311,700 319,600
Grade milled (g Au/t)
Underground mines 6.4 6.0
Low-grade stockpile 1.0 1.0
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Total 5.4 5.9
Recovery (%) 95 96

Sleeping Giant (50%)
Production (ounces) 7,700 9,000
Tonnage milled (t) 20,300 28,100
Grade milled (g Au/t) 12.1 10.3
Recovery (%) 97 97

Total production (ounces of gold) 133,900 149,100

----------------------------------------------------------------------
----------------------------------------------------------------------
(1) Includes the Doyon and Mouska mines.

CONTACT: Cambior Inc.
Robert LaValliere, 450/677-2699
450/677-3382 (fax)
Email: [e-mail]
Website: www.cambior.com

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.canada.com/news/story.asp?id=35AF31E8-7515-4442-A…

Cambior`s Omai mine shut down again due to local protests that closed roads

Canadian Press

Monday, April 14, 2003

LONGUEUIL, Que. (CP) - Cambior Inc. has temporarily suspended operations of its Omai mine in Guyana and laid off 600 workers due to a shortage of fuel because protesters dug a ditch in the main road that supplies the mine, the gold miner said Monday.

The mine, which was closed Sunday, was also shut down last Thursday and Friday because of the protests. Maintenance was also performed those two days. Omai mines about 75 per cent of Guyana`s annual gold output of 450,000 ounces.

Hundreds of residents of Linden, a bauxite-mining town 115 kilometres south of the capital, Georgetown, have dug trenches and set up barricades across the main north-south road, which runs 560 kilometres from the capital to the border with Brazil.

The protesters are demanding the government repair collapsed electricity and water systems, which broke down three weeks ago, leaving the 30,000 residents of Linden without utilities.

Montreal-based Cambior (TSX:CBJ) said the president of Guyana met with local authorities Friday to discuss what to do to restore power to Linden, and is scheduled to meet with them again Tuesday.

Omai Gold Mines, Cambior`s Guyanese subsidiary, said it was told Sunday that the power supply was partially restored in the town and should be fully functional by the end of this week.

"Production at the Omai mine should resume shortly after the cessation of the road blockade," Cambior said. "Impact on the overall production at Omai is not expected to be material" and it will give further details as the situation unfolds this week.

Shares in Cambior Inc., which is a gold producer with operations, development projects and exploration activities throughout the Americas, fell four cents to $1.76 on the Toronto stock market on Monday morning.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/

TownCrier (4/14/03; 13:31:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 101319)
Speaking of "no `meaningful limit` to the Fed`s power to inject money"...
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/030414/markets_fed_openmarket_2.html
The Federal Reserve today added $6.922 billion dollars to the banking system.

$5.5 billion of this were temporary reserves added through three-day repurchase agreements in open market operations.

The balance was a "permanent" addition through an outright purcahse by the Fed of Treasury coupons. This is already the second time (that I`m aware of) in seven days that the Federal Reserve has engaged in the outright purchase of Treasuries to add permanent cash to the nation`s banking system.

Where the stealthy "tax" of inflation lurks and looms ever larger, put yourself in a "tax free zone" with a diversification out of weakening dollars and into hard assets such as gold. Call Centennial for assistance with your exchange.

R.

[ThaiGuru]

U.S.A Nationale Schulden Uhr

Die öffentlichen angesammelten Schulden! Zur Zeit:



The estimated population of the United States is 290,733,885 so each citizen`s share of this debt is $22,266.71.

The National Debt has continued to increase an average of
$1.25 billion per day since September 30, 2002!
Concerned?

http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock/

[matthiasch]

Wahnsinn das Tempo

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock/faq.html

Wem Schulden die USA diese riesige Menge Geld?

Wie man sieht, den mit Abstand grössten prozentualen Brocken, der privaten Fiat Money Druckerei, und Aktiengesellschaft "Federal Reseve Bank" FED, unter Alan Greenspan.


Grafik: Stand December 1998

[ThaiGuru]

April 14 - Gold $324.20 down $3 - Silver $4.52 up 4 cents

A Contrarian’s Delight

"The thin and precarious crust of decency is all that separates any civilization, however impressive, from the hell of anarchy or systematic tyranny which lie in wait beneath the surface." - Aldous Leonard Huxley

If you are a contrarian, you have to be a buyer of gold. Last week the incredibly weak Café Sentiment Indicator was brought to your attention. This weekend, the attendance at the Montreal Resource Conference was abysmally low, more like a ghost town. I was stunned and cannot recall a worse attendance at a gold related event in almost four years. You would think gold broke $250 on the downside!

The lack of gold interest, with the fundamentals as positive as they could ever be, is the most important point that I can bring to your attention today. It is truly astonishing. More on the conference tomorrow. To note: in my presentation to the attendees, I mentioned that years ago I couldn’t have dreamed up such a bullish wish list of positive gold fundamentals that we now have in play. AND FEW CARE!!!

I suppose that’s because they don’t matter much when you have a bunch of thugs whacking gold down every time after it picks its head up. People are sick of it. After a few days of small gains, the crooks came out swinging again today. Seems we are back to where we were a year ago. $330 is the magic number again. Now that ESF henchman Snow is wielding his deceitful power, the cabal seems intent on protecting their derivatives positions by keep gold below that key technical point. Will they succeed like they did in years past? I don’t think so. Too much going against them.

The specs are coming in again on the long side. Comex open interest jumped 5,000+ contracts Friday. Not good. It’s reminiscent of the same drill we have seen for so many years from the cabal forces. Cap, cap cap for a few days, then drill gold down. Silver continues to perform very well, bucking the gold bashing trend. It has now closed above its downtrend line formed in early February and closed above the psychologically important $4.50 level. Gold needs to take out $330 to do the same.

At press time, the shares are holding up well too, as has been the case for many weeks.

More historical gold info from Robert Ames:

Here`s another bit from my history research, this time from the Nixon era.

http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/japan/schaller.htm

That August, as foreign pressure to redeem dollars for gold reached a climax, Secretary of the Treasury John Connally told Nixon that the government "can`t cover our liabilities - we`re broke; anyone can topple us."

Robert Ames

Like Nixon, like Bush?

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

Monday April 14 2003

Financial markets in India were closed today.

A softer yen, yet another 20 year low in Japanese stocks, apparently total inertia on the part of the authorities, and gold`s recovery in NY on Friday could not inspire enough TOCOM enthusiasm to challenge the very visible cap on gold in the Far East.

"TOCOM led buying dripped in sporadically throughout the session.

It appeared there was some overhead selling at the highs. As market drew near the end, a bout of trade selling emerged to press for a close at day low."
politely notes Mitsui H-K. UBS Warburg adds:

"Steady selling from the Hong Kong name, which has been a feature of the last few trading days, kept gold from rallying further."

Open interest did edge up the equivalent of 661 Comex lots on volume equal to 23,564 Comex contracts, 53% above Friday`s, but the active contract closed up only 8 yen - having been up 14 at one time - and $US gold went out $1.70 below the NY close at $325.25. (NY on Friday traded 34,168 lots: open interest rose a large 5213 lots.)

Dealer- related observers seem once again uncomfortable with the CFTC data, which showed a further modest reduction in the combined spec long (by 0.24 Mm ozs to 5.19 Mm), but the first appreciable increase in spec open interest for two months:

"Odd and odder: large and small COMEX speculators each added 4 tonnes to their net long in week to April 8, i.e. week fell $11 and Baghdad fell. Data error?"
says a particularly sophisticated commentator, while Mitsui-NY concedes:

"There has been good trade selling above 327 the past week"

The intrepid research department of Refco

http://research.refco.com, which has now twice recently been stopped out of promising gold longs, has adapted to the situation: on Friday evening they proposed the selling of $315 June gold puts, in effect re-asserting a favorable view of gold`s fundamentals, but acknowledging the existence of a determined seller above. Judging by the CFTC and lease rate behavior, the key culprit is an Official sector long.

Those able to take a longer view can be more cheerful. Veteran Market hand Richard Band
http://www.rband.com remarks in his hotline this weekend:

"the caution signals from stock market are getting louder and more urgent.the only industry group we really like right now is the gold stocks.Tonight, we`re raising our maximum buy price on Newmont Mining to $26"

( This, as noted last week, is Band`s first venture in gold shares since 1987.)

Any time a casual survey of the news can find headlines like:

"US tells Syria to co-operate or risk conflict."
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,5944-645911,00.html

or one can find an article in the Bush Administration poodle

National Review http://www.nationalreview.com

yapping, of Iraq`s: European trade partners:

"we need to demand that supplier countries act vigorously to close up these networks and prosecute the outside criminals.we should deliver an uncompromising message to them: Arrest the outside criminals and clean out those inside your own governments who facilitated this illegal trade."

http://www.nationalreview.com/comment/comment-bryen041103.as…

or find numerous stories of the Fed being about to resort to unconventional action, of which yesterday`s NY Post article

http://www.nypost.com/cgi-bin/printfriendly.pl

is just one, gold will not be friendless.

JB

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

[ThaiGuru]

http://m1.mny.co.za/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B242256…

Aflease eyes six-fold gold increase

By: Stewart Bailey


Posted: 2003/04/14 Mon 18:00 | © Mineweb 1997-2003


JOHANNESBURG – The Afrikander Lease, the Klerksdorp-based gold junior, today outlined plans for a six-fold increase in production by the end of next year as the group hits the straps on its underground expansion strategy. The company’s new chief executive warned, however, that the March and June quarters would by weak operationally for the company as it commissioned its new process plant.

Froneman said by year-end the teething problems would be a thing of the past and the production figures of 35,000 ounces last year would almost treble to 100,000 ounces by December. That figure would possibly be doubled again to 200,000 ounces by the end of 2003. “As you can see, these are assets that just beg to be mined at a larger rate,” said Froneman.

The expansion of the company’s production base will be achieved through a six-pronged organic growth and exploration strategy across both its West and East Rand operating assets. The first phase of the production increase will come from the introduction of a new carbon-in-leach plant which will not only increase recoveries from current levels of 54 percent to a more respectable 95 percent, but will also process 200,000 tons of ore each month, up from previous figure of 130,000 tons.

Froneman said Aflease would also kick off its shallow underground mining operations at Aflease’s Klerksdorp base in order to access higher grade ore at 3.5 grams a ton and expand its existing open-pit mine to bring mining costs down to R50/ton. Existing heap leach pads – large piles of gold-bearing ore – would also be retreated to release locked-in gold, after which “free-dig conglomerates” - ore which does not need to be crushed or milled - would be processed during the start-up of the new plant at a bargain cost of R30 a ton.

But the long-term future of the company will hinge on the brownfields exploration success at its Bonanza deposit on the West Rand and its New Kleinfontein prospect on the East Rand, which includes the old Modder B sectoion. Froneman cut his teeth on the marginal East Rand Consolidated Modderfontein and Marievale mines and is widely expected to breathe new life into New Kleinfontein.

“The first gold output from New Kleinfontein should come out in about two years,” said Froneman. He said the worst-case scenario would see Aflease foot a R100 million capital development for the mine. That would require the company to sink its own shallow vertical shaft and build a new 60,000-ton a month plant. Alternatively, however, the company is expected to kick off discussions with its neighbours, which include Canadian junior Bema Gold, to use spare shaft and plant infrastructure and slash capex requirements.

Froneman said detailed reserve and resource statements would be issued by the middle of the year when Aflease upgraded its ADR listing in New York to level 2.

Results

The group’s results for the year to December were down in almost every department, despite a 38 percent increase in the gold price last year. Revenue climbed 23 percent to R111.4 million on the back of the higher gold price, but a steep increase in costs after incessant equipment failure during the year pushed bottom line profit down by 3 percent.

“The 54 percent increase in the cash cost per kilogram is attributed to an unacceptably high failure rate of equipment during 2002, which resulted in increased mining costs and reduced gold production. Management is confident that this issue has been addressed through the increase in capacity of equipment and increased gold recoveries expected from the new metallurgical plant,” the company said in a statement. The company has invested in R45 million worth of new open cast mining equipment and R50 million worth of plant.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.mips1.net/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B24225…

Aflease boss quit under R2.3m cloud

By: Stewart Bailey

Posted: 2003/04/14 Mon 17:43 ZE2 | © Mineweb 1997-2003

JOHANNESBURG – Former Afrikander Leases chairman and founder Peter Skeat, was ousted in a boardroom coup last month after fellow directors uncovered an alleged “incorrect accounting treatment” worth R2.3 million.

The Johannesburg market has been awash with speculation surrounding Skeat’s departure in March, only weeks after he appointed ex-Harmony, JCI and Gold Fields turnaround specialist Neal Froneman, as chief executive. The revelations around Skeat’s departure were made today, along with the announcement of a reconstituted board.

Aflease’s new financial director Marais Steyn, said that while Skeat had not benefited personally from the accounting anomaly, both parties had nonetheless agreed not to divulge details of the irregularity.

“It was not a material amount, but the breach of corporate governance was serious enough for us to take the action we had to take. Peter took the honourable route (by resigning), which has helped to secure the future of the company,” said Steyn.

Skeat was less sanguine about his resignation. “It was all unnecessary but we’ve decided not to discuss it in public and anyway, its too late,” he said.

“I’m pleased to have taken this company from eighty-cents to R7 a share in December and to have done my best for shareholders,” said Skeat. The share has indeed come a long way since its low of R0.98 a share on 31 October 2000, helped by a combination of a weak rand and a slew of corporate activity; it hit a high of R7.06 in January this year and has since come back to current levels of around R4.90 a share.

“I’ve fought tooth and nail for shareholders for seven days a week, over five years of my life and I’ve always wanted to strive forward for them. I’m very sad not to be able to take it forward. I wish the new management team the best of luck and I hope they can deliver the same returns over the next two years,” Skeat told Mineweb.

His words of encouragement for the new board are hardly surprising, given that a large slug of his personal wealth is still tied up in his 22 percent stake in Aflease, held through his wholly owned company Benoryn Investments. Skeat said he had not yet decided whether or not to sell his stake in the company.

Aflease’s board now has three executives. Froneman’s pedigree as an underground specialist is unsurpassed, as his investment nous, demonstrated through the opportunistic purchase and resale of New Kleinfontein Mining Company to Aflease last year.

Steyn’s appointment as financial director comes after a stint at Western Areas and JCI, where he worked closely with chief executive Brett Kebble. Steyn was also a member of Froneman’s successful New Kleinfontein consortium and had an association with embattled London-listed junior Bullion Resources.

Bruce Jones, the third new executive and chief operating officer, is a long time associate of Froneman’s. The two last worked together on turning around Harmony’s newly acquired Elandsrand operation in 2000.

The other non-executive board appointments include ex-Durban Roodepoort Deep human resources manager Ferdi Lips; ex-Anglo American Gold’s head of North West operations Ken Dicks, whose responsibilities then included overseeing Afrikander Leases; and Canadian national John Sibley, a lawyer representing Tokyo-based gold fund Jipangu, a major Aflease shareholder. Jean Nortier, a long time Aflease non-executive who works closely with Trinity, Cape Town-based gold fund and Aflease’s largest shareholder, has been promoted to non-executive chairman.

[ThaiGuru]

!

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[ThaiGuru]

Noch eine Meldung zum "Wirtschaftsaufschwung" in Deutschland!

Weil die Aussichten "so gut" sind, steigt wohl die Börse?



http://www.welt.de/data/2003/04/15/73471.html

Dienstag, 15. April 2003 Berlin, 08:21 Uhr

Umsatzeinbruch und Stellenabbau im Handwerk - Düsterer Ausblick für 2003

Wiesbaden/Berlin - Nach Umsatzrückgängen und Stellenabbau im vergangenen Jahr blickt das deutsche Handwerk düster in die Zukunft. Nachdem sich der Abbau der Beschäftigung im vergangenen Jahr beschleunigte, sei auch 2003 mit einem ähnlichen Rückgang zu rechnen, teilte der Zentralverband des Deutschen Handwerks (ZDH) mit. 2002 beschäftigten die Handwerksbetriebe 5,37 Millionen Menschen und damit im Vergleich zum Vorjahr 287.000 weniger. Die Umsätze gingen um 25 Mrd. Euro auf 484 Mrd. Euro zurück.

Laut Berechnungen des Statistischen Bundesamtes verschärften sich 2002 die Stellenstreichungen. Der Rückgang belief sich auf 5,3 Prozent nach 3,9 Prozent im Jahr zuvor. Die stärksten Personaleinschnitte gab es im vergangenen Jahr im Baugewerbe mit einem Minus von 9,6 Prozent. Bei den Gewerben für Gesundheits- und Körperpflege sowie bei Reinigungsbetrieben fiel der Beschäftigungsrückgang mit 2,6 Prozent am geringsten aus.

Auch die Umsätze sackten 2002 mit 4,9 Prozent stärker als im Vorjahr ab. Damals betrug das Minus 2,4 Prozent. Für 2002 seien die Befürchtungen des Handwerks bestätigt worden, sagte ZDH-Generalsekretär Hanns-Eberhard Schleyer. Als Gründe für die Krise im Handwerk nannte er den "ungebremsten Anstieg der Lohnzusatzkosten" sowie eine zurückgehende Investitionsbereitschaft, die das Handwerk bei Unternehmen aber auch bei der öffentlichen Hand spüre. dpa

Artikel erschienen am 15. Apr 2003

[ThaiGuru]

Sachsen kündigt den nationalen Stabilitätspakt

Dortmund (dpa) - Nach dem CSU-regierten Bayern will nun auch die sächsische CDU-Regierung den nationalen Stabilitätspakt kündigen. Sachsens Ministerpräsident Georg Milbradt (CDU) sagte der Dortmunder «Westfälischen Rundschau», sein Land werde sich im Fall eines zu hohen Staatsdefizits nicht an einer von der EU verhängten Milliarden- Strafe beteiligen.

«Wir haben uns als Staatsregierung bemüht, die Verschuldung unseres Freistaats relativ gering zu halten und sind damit erfolgreich», erklärte der Regierungschef. Er teile deswegen die Position des bayerischen Ministerpräsidenten Edmund Stoiber (CSU), der keine Strafe mit bezahlen will. Milbradt: «Sollten nicht nur diejenigen zahlen, die die hohe Verschuldung bewerkstelligt haben? Warum sollen die bestraft werden, die sich anständig verhalten?»

Deutschland wird nach Einschätzung der EU-Kommission die in der EU vereinbarten 3-Prozent-Defizithürde klar reißen. Nach 3,6 Prozent im vergangenen Jahr geht die EU-Kommission für 2003 von 3,4 Prozent aus. Gibt es Strafen, werden sie gemäß nationalem Stabilitätspakt auf Bund, Länder und Kommunen aufgeteilt.

Verletzt Deutschland die 3-Prozent-Grenze, kann die EU eine Geldstrafe in Höhe von bis zu 0,5 Prozent des Bruttoinlandsprodukts verhängen - das sind zwischen fünf und zehn Milliarden Euro.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
erschienen am 15.04.2003 um 07:32 Uhr
© WELT.de

[erdede]

...tja, das alles scheint im Augenblick niemand zu interessieren....
scheint offenbar alles halb so schlimm zu sein


erdede

[derunsichtbarefreund]

thai guru

man kann es wenden wie wir wollen. wenn usa nicht freiwillig den finanzkollaps einleitet, dann wirds eben europa tun.

dann fehlen die " transferzahlungen " die die amis am leben hält. wenn keiner mehr nach " drüben " investieren kann weil er zu hause nichts mehr zum beissen hat haben auch die gringos nichts mehr was sie mit ihren grünen zetteln kaufen können.

alles eine frage des zeitpunktes.

übrigens; bei uns in old germany ist die rentenkasse pleite. die lebt jetzt nur noch von der hand in den mund. das wird jetzt richtig lustig wenn die rentner ihre kohle nicht mehr bekommen oder verspätet ausgezahlt bekommen.

der anfang vom ende eben. aber es will halt keiner wahr haben

finanzkollaps - bürgerkrieg - währungsreform ( gegen was eigentlich ) game over. und keiner will`s nachher gewesen sein

DUF

[svc]

@duf

ja, sach mal - wir sind ja durchaus deiner meinung - aber an einem so schönen tage so verbitterte postings zu schreiben. wir können es nachvollziehen!

mach besser den rechner aus, giesse dir ein gutes glas wein ein und geniesse den sommerlichen abend!

wir waren in dieser woche bei der bank unseres vertrauens und haben mal am edelmetalschalter vorbei geschaut.

dort standen 3 araber vor uns die goldbarren kauften. schnell stellte sich im gespräch raus, dass sie auch goldbugs sind. hihi! nette gespräche!

zu schluss wollen wir nur mal was über den pog schreiben:
der wird so offensichtlich `gevögelt` dass man es kaum übersehen kann. sehr gleich zum 2 hj 2002. diese vögelei erinnert schwer an der kursverlauf von ag`s dir kurz vor einer übernahme stehen.

nicht so ganz vergleichbar - aber parallelen gibts da schon.

einen schönen abend wünschen die svc

[ThaiGuru]

@derunsichtbarefreund

Denke, dass die *FED* oder die von ihr "kontrollierten" Banken, wie JPM, City, etc. nicht kampflos aufgeben werden. Die *FED* wird die USA, und damit fast die ganze Welt, früher oder später, in eine Wirtschaftskatastophe ohnegleichen führen, falls sie die Gold, Devisen und Aktien Märkte weiterhin manipuliert, und weiter unermüdlich in diesem Ausmas neue "Fiat Money Dollars" in Umlauf bringt wie bisher.

Wenn der Crash von Europa ausgehen würde, wären die USA gezwungen eher früher als später ihren Wahnsinns Schuldenberg zu inflationieren, oder einen "two tier" Dollar Währung zu beschliessen.

Mir macht es zur Zeit grosse Probleme den Manipulationen der "Freien Märkte" (Devisen, Gold und Aktien Börsen) täglich zusehen zu müssen, und auf CNN, Bush von Freiheit für den Irak sprechen zu hören, und von US Regierungsseite erklärt zu bekommen, Irak müsse jetzt wieder Oel für Dollars verkaufen, weil der Dollar DIE Währung sei in der nun mal Oel gehandelt wird, obwohl bekannterweise Irak seit 2000 Oel nur noch gegen Euro verkauft hatte, und ob man nicht am besten jetzt im Irak den Dollar als Währung einführen sollte, weil das die einzige Währung sei die Stabilität garantiere, und in die die Iraker Vertrauen haben könnten.

Wie auch immer, der grosse Finanzcrash wird kommen, ob von Japan, den USA, Europa, oder allenfalls Südamerika ausgelöst kann ich zur Zeit noch nur vermuten.

Auch wenn heute gerade einmal mehr wieder Börsenhause gespielt wird, und der Goldpreis wieder gedrückt wird, am Ende wird der Fall an den Börsen umso grösser werden.

Ein Investment aus Sicherheitsgründen in physisches Gold, von zu allermindest 20% des Anlagevermögens, bei den heutigen irrational tiefen Goldpreisen, sehe ich heute als ein absolutes MUSS an.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[svc]

@tg

du brodelst ja auch!

in cnn konnte man heute sehr schöne bilder von plünderungen von banken in bagdad sehen. es wurden aber keine irakischen noten gezeigt, nein die diebe haben nur us dollar entwendet. passt ins bild!

20% sind ein guter wert:

SVC

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.bday.co.za/bday/content/direct/1%2C3523%2C1326860…

Japanese gold fund eyes a bigger stake in Aflease

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Resources Correspondent

JIPANGU, the Japanese gold fund which has a 12% stake in Afrikander Lease (Aflease), may be planning to increase its stake in the gold mining company.

The gold fund, which bought its stake in Aflease in August last year, has nominated John Sibley, a Canadian lawyer, as a nonexecutive director to the board of the mining company now headed by Neal Froneman.

"Jipangu has indicated its intention to lift its stake. It is difficult for me to speak on their behalf, but the fact they were involved in putting forward a nomination for the board shows that they have serious intentions," he said .

Froneman left his position at Gold Fields to take up the role of CEO at Aflease last month. Reporting the company`s full year results yesterday, he outlined a strategy for further growth.

Phase one of the expansion programme aims to lift gold production from 35000 ounces a year to more than 100000 ounces by December this year.

A second phase of expansion could increase production to 200000 ounces a year by the end of next year , the CEO said.

The company was focusing on organic growth, but said it would consider acquisitions on the East Rand where its existing operations were concentrated .

Gold company Sub Nigel Gold Mining issued a cautionary announcement in the middle of last month advising shareholders that it was in negotiations which, if successful , could have an effect on the company`s share price.

Froneman would not comment on whether Aflease was interested in Sub Nigel.

" It is important to bring our own assets to account, but we are also well placed to grow through acquisitions," said Froneman.

The acquisition of New Kleinfontein had been completed and the company was assessing the ore body, the company said.

At Modder East, Aflease said its exploration programme led to a 250% increase in reserves to more than 700000 ounces.

Earnings in the year ended December31 dropped to R15,59m from R16,06m.

Bottom line: Page 10
Apr 15 2003 07:07:56:000AM Julie Bain Business Day 1st Edition

[ThaiGuru]

http://news.goldseek.com/TedButler/1050428139.php

Tue. April 15th, 2003 CDT

The Road to Extinction [silver]

By: Theodore Butler

I have been asked to come up with some examples of other commodities that could be used to make my case on silver. As you know, my silver analysis predicts a dramatic and shocking adjustment in the price, contrary to what is being predicted by establishment analysts. An example or two where this has occurred in other commodities should help folks to more fully understand what I’m saying.

The most important commodity of them all, crude oil, had been priced at roughly $2 a barrel for years, up until 1972. Fortune magazine predicted the price of oil would stay at $2 for as far as the eye could see. Instead, a series of events caused the price of oil to jump 15 to 20 times that level. Palladium`s price jumped from $60 an ounce in 1990 to over $1100/ounce in ten years. That’s also a 15 to 20 fold increase. Silver itself may provide the best example, having exploded almost 40 times from 1970 to 1980, from a dollar and small change to $50 an ounce. What better example could there be than the price history of the exact same commodity? None of these long term price explosions were predicted by establishment analysts.

But even these examples, while factual and valid, don`t completely convey my innermost feelings about the current state of the silver market. Many years ago on a family camping trip to Everglades National Park, on a tour through the marshes and mangroves, the ranger in charge told us the story of the egret, a beautiful wading bird with distinctive white feathers. Only a hundred years or so ago, this area was home to millions of these beautiful birds. A European fashion craze used the large white feathers from this bird in women`s hats. It was thought to make a striking fashion statement. It quickly followed that hunting brought its numbers to near extinction.

Whether you want to use this example, or beaver pelts used to make men’s hats or whale oil to light lamps, there have been many examples throughout the history of commodities that were consumed to the point of extinction. These examples are of the renewable kind, where proper management and husbandry could have prevented exhaustion. In the non-renewable, or mineral realm, all supplies are finite and once they are gone, they are gone forever. In this regard, silver, like any other mineral that exists in the earth`s crust is finite and non-renewable. But let me be clear. I am not suggesting we are running out of these minerals anytime soon.

It is not silver coming out of the ground that I`m comparing to egret feathers. The world will continue to mine close to 600 million ounces each year. It is silver above ground that is rapidly becoming extinct. World silver inventories are going the way of the saber-toothed tiger - gone, never to return. The world mined and hoarded silver for 5000 years. Then, in 50 years, we consumed over 90% of what was accumulated in all of recorded history. This has never happened in any other commodity. Just imagine if it was gold, not silver, that was found necessary in thousands of vital modern industrial applications, and that most of the gold mined throughout history was consumed. Imagine that gold, instead of silver, was the best conductor of electricity and heat and reflector of light. What would the price be, $50,000 an ounce? There are such unique and unusual circumstances in silver that it is not possible for anyone to make a comparison with any other commodity.



I use extreme and unconventional examples in describing silver because they are the only comparisons that come close to accurately reflecting the true situation. When crude oil or palladium jumped 20 fold over a decade, or even when silver jumped 40 fold over ten years, it wasn`t because inventories were driven to extinction. It was simply current supply/demand and, in the case of silver, investment buying. And in each case, the sharply higher prices either balanced supply/demand shortfalls, or drew additional supplies to the market by inventory rearrangement (the great silver melt of 1980). That is precisely why these examples don`t apply to the current situation in silver (even silver 1970-1980), because we don`t have the sharply higher prices that characterized those examples.

Think about it, this is the first time in history that we have documented deficits and disappearing inventories without the sharply higher prices demanded by the law of supply and demand. That`s why I keep asking someone to step forward and answer the question, "how can you have decades of deficits and shrinking inventories without sharply higher prices, in a free market?" The answer, of course, is that only a monumental manipulation could explain such a circumstance. And it is precisely that manipulation that gives you this once in a lifetime opportunity.

That’s because silver is more needed than ever before. There are less available inventories now than at any time in our life. We have the lowest adjusted prices in memory. We have the largest short position the world has ever known. And the absolute best feature of all, it is something the average person can take advantage of. Even if you knew that whales and egrets and beavers were close to extinction at some point, how would the average person capitalize on that? Even if you knew that crude oil was about to embark on a decade long, 20-fold increase, how do you deal in, and store, the real thing? With silver, that`s no problem. The average person can secure silver with a phone call.

The most remarkable thing about silver is that it can be owned by everyone. There should be no excuses. All you have to do is your homework. All you have to do is apply your God-given common sense. All you have to do is open your eyes and your mind. Silver inventories are going extinct, just as sure as snowy Egrets were going extinct. And you can be sure that no one was writing articles advising the average person to invest in feathers, barrels of whale oil or crude oil. Such opportunities are incredibly rare and fleeting. It`s not everyday the existing supply of a major investment asset goes extinct.

-- Posted Tuesday, April 15 2003

[ThaiGuru]

http://news.goldseek.com/JamesCook/1050428212.php

Treadmill to Disaster

By: James R. Cook

Sometimes governments think they can control economic outcomes. In recent decades the U.S. frequently intervened in currency markets to shore up the dollar. In the past, these measures were fully disclosed to the public. In a speech in the late 1990s, Chairman Greenspan reaffirmed this policy of intervention. So far in the current dollar decline we’ve had no such revelation. Perhaps there’s been no intervention, or maybe it will no longer be disclosed.

Recently, it seems like intervention has occurred in the stock market, the gold market and the currency market. However, we can’t be sure. During the 1990s there were several occasions when a sharp drop in stocks seemed to reverse itself far too quickly. It was unlike stock market actions in prior decades. If intervention did occur in the past decade, it would account for the runaway bull market and NASDAQ blowoff. Investors never suffered from the steep declines that earmarked stock prices in prior decades. That made them overconfident and fearless, no matter how high stock prices climbed. Another explanation for these rapid market fluctuations and reversals could be derivatives. Futures contracts that go long or short on the Dow or S&P surged in volume the past decade and became increasingly popular. They may be the tail that wags the dog.

The Chairman of the Fed also said that governments stood ready to lease gold if prices moved higher. Many gold experts claim that’s an ongoing practice that manipulates the gold price downward. Theodore Butler claims a different set of manipulations in silver, one in which the government is not a factor. That’s a big advantage for silver. The major trading giants that have a clamp on the silver price will likely stand aside when the actual supply of real silver tightens. The risk of higher prices for silver will be too great for them to go short. Furthermore, they have no real silver to meet the demand or to help manipulate the price. Contrast that with gold, where the government maintains a large holding. While the government may feel it’s important to use their gold to control the price (a rising price reflects a weak dollar), they feel no such requirement with silver.

Attempts to restrain and guide the gold market by government or by large dealers in silver act exactly as do price controls. Once the free market re-exerts itself, the prices explode. Price suppression builds up an opposite reaction like steam in a boiler. Whenever price controls are lifted, prices soar. Eventually, free market demand (the actions of the people) overcome the controlled market and prices reach the level they would otherwise have been without the intervention. Often they overshoot.

The same holds true in currency and stock markets. These large markets are hard to control because of their size. Intervention only works at certain points and usually temporarily. The unfettered actions of market participants (the definition of a free market) eventually overrides the manipulators.

At this juncture no outside observer can know one way or another if stock prices are supported or ignored during market declines. It seems that they are when we see stock prices rise on bad news or when a sharp recovery follows on the heels of a steep decline. The economist Walter Heller argued for government stock purchases. We know it happens in Japan. If it happens in the U.S., it should at least be disclosed. Otherwise the government or big brokerages and funds are employing practices for which the rest of us would go to jail. One thing is certain, the stock market has become so important the powers that be don’t want to see it decline.

Actually, the stock market has become too important. The production of goods and services has become secondary to stock market gains. A few years ago we wrote that company owners could make more money from their publicly traded stock than from producing goods. Stock market gains also cause people to consume more. Unfortunately, those gains don’t add to productive capacity or boost current income. Nevertheless, stock speculation still occupies the hearts and minds of a vast segment of the American people.

Attempts to hike their stock prices provoke corporations into strategies that sometimes do more harm than good. Mergers, restructuring, stock repurchases and creative accounting are stressed, while investment in tools, equipment and plants suffer. The upshot has been a horrible profit performance that promises to keep stock prices suppressed. With $500 billion annually diverted away from U.S. companies and sent overseas, the growing trade deficit negates the possibility of any significant improvement in U.S. corporate profits. Furthermore, lack of domestic savings translates into weak capital investment. You can’t have a profits increase without new business spending on productive facilities. The bear market lives.

Another popular corporate tool, cost cutting and restructuring, takes a terrible toll on the work force. Layoffs increase monthly. How can it be that GDP (the economy) grows if unemployment is worsening? The government’s statistics don’t make sense. The economy is stagnating and losing steam. Meanwhile, the government inflation statistics seem equally bogus as costs for energy, services and insurance race ahead.

Nobody can be certain about what lies ahead for the economy. Right now the credit markets are wide open while the economy stagnates. Credit couldn’t be easier, but it’s not enough to get things going again. We see three possible outcomes. Frankly, all are bullish for precious metals (wouldn’t you know it).

Stagflation – The economy stays anemic while an excess of money and credit pushes up the cost of living. The dollar slowly erodes. Economic woes gradually worsen.
Recovery – Low interest rates and easy money restore the economy’s vigor. Businesses gradually start to spend again. The good old days of the 1990s start to return. Unfortunately, the massive amount of new credit along with record deficit spending insures that inflation becomes an insurmountable problem.

Bust – A depression unfolds. The Fed can’t lower interest rates anymore, but a falling dollar forces them up. Stock prices collapse. Credit failures shut down the bond market. The economy plummets and unemployment soars.

A tug of war exists between the forces of contraction and the Federal Reserve. The central bank recently formulated a contingency plan that greatly expands the money supply and promotes credit expansion whenever recession seems to be gaining ground. This plan calls for massive inflating directly on top of the greatest money and credit expansion in history. The recent boom and stock bubble were fostered by loose monetary policies. Easy money always leads to bad business decisions and too much speculation. The bust or depression cleanses the system. However, the Fed attempts everything in its power to forestall this correction because they believe it will be too painful. This brand of monetary policy courts disaster. It’s no more than raw inflating and monetary debasement practiced on a gargantuan scale. This unprecedented folly will reverberate through history. It promises the most negative possible outcome for the country.

By some estimates, the government will run a $400 billion annual deficit and the crazy thing is the economy may need this runaway government spending to keep percolating. The nation’s debt level lies somewhere between $32 and $35 trillion and still grows uncontrollably. The trade deficit hovers at $500 billion a year. The overvalued S&P still sells for a hefty 31 times earnings. Manufacturing has lost two and a half million jobs. Interest rates are at the lowest point in forty years and still fail to stoke up the economy.

The government and the monetary authorities are going to intervene and manipulate, in any way they can, to prop up a faltering economy. On the surface that looks like good policy. Unfortunately, efforts to reinflate the bubble are a treadmill to disaster. Inflating is a policy that cannot last. We face two alternatives. Either the dollar will be destroyed through hyperinflation, or we will have a great depression. No other options exist.


-- Posted Tuesday, April 15 2003

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.reuters.de/news_article.jhtml;jsessionid=AZSZJNNS…

Welteke: SARS neuer Unsicherheitsfaktor für die Wirtschaft

15 April 2003 19:07 CEST

New York (Reuters) - Mit der Ausbreitung der Lungenkrankheit SARS ist nach Worten von Bundesbankpräsident Ernst Welteke ein weiterer Unsicherheitsfaktor für die Weltwirtschaft hinzugekommen.

Durch den negativen Einfluss auf Transport und Tourismus könne die Krankheit der Wirtschaft zumindest in Asien ernsten Schaden zufügen, sagte Welteke am Dienstag auf einer Konferenz in New York seinem Redetext zufolge. Einige Wachstumsprognosen seien deshalb schon gesenkt worden. Nach mehreren Banken hatte zuletzt die Ratingagentur Standard & Poor`s gewarnt, das Wachstum könne sich in Teilen Asiens wegen SARS abschwächen, weil etwa der Konsum zurückgehe.

Die Weltwirtschaft werde auch nach dem Ende des Irak-Krieges nicht zu kräftigem Wachstum ansetzen, da dieser nicht die einzige Quelle der Unsicherheit sei, bekräftigte Welteke. So müssten Ungleichgewichte in der Wirtschaft wie die vorangegangenen Überinvestitionen abgebaut werden.

"Die Unsicherheit war da, bevor der Krieg in Sicht kam, und sie wird sicher noch eine Weile nach dem hoffentlich schnellen Ende des Krieges anhalten"[/u], sagte das EZB-Ratsmitglied. "Das ist eine Besonderheit, mit der wir noch länger leben müssen."

Erst in der vergangenen Woche hatte der Internationale Währungsfonds seine Wachstumsprognosen 2003 für die USA auf 2,2 Prozent gesenkt, für die Euro-Zone auf 1,1 Prozent und für Deutschland auf nur noch ein halbes Prozent.

[ThaiGuru]

!

Dieser Beitrag wurde vom System automatisch gesperrt. Bei Fragen wenden Sie sich bitte an [e-mail]

[ThaiGuru]

"Tolle Leistung"!

[schimanskihorst]

Morgen wird der Markt steil nach oben gehen.Gold wird sicherlich tief fallen.
Alle haben von einen fallenden Markt und steigenden Goldpreis gesprochen.Nun ist es umgekehrt eingetreten.
Würde momenmtan nicht auf Minen-Aktien setzen-die wird es bald billiger geben

[Wavetrader]

"Alle haben von einen fallenden Markt und steigenden Goldpreis gesprochen.Nun ist es umgekehrt eingetreten."

Diese Aussage ist in doppelter Hinsicht fragwürdig. Wer ist alle? Wann wurde diese Ansicht verbreitet? Der allgemeine und bisher auch eingetretene Konsens war doch, dass nach dem für die Amerikaner erfolgreichen Irakkrieg Gold unter Druck gerät (Abbau der Kriegsprämie) und sich die Standardwerte erholen.

"Würde momenmtan nicht auf Minen-Aktien setzen-die wird es bald billiger geben"

Schlichte Frage: Warum? Deine vorherigen Sätze begründen deine Empfehlung in keiner Weise.

[ThaiGuru]

@schimanskihorst

Wenn Du Dich da mal nur nicht täuschst!

[ThaiGuru]

April 15 – Gold $324.70 up 50 cents - Silver $4.51 down 1 cent

Gold Cartel Selling Met Head On / HUI Makes New Highs

"It is not falling into the water, but lying in it, that drowns."
— WisdomWoman

Let’s hope today was a fluke. Haven’t heard much from Goldman Sachs in the gold price capping arena the past many months, but they were in there slamming bullion today. With gold up $1.50 early, they showed up with their selling guns blazing. That took gold down $2.50 for the day towards the pivotal $320 support area. It didn`t stay down there long as strong physical market buying showed up and reversed the price action.

When did gold first poop out early in the day? Right after 10 EST and right before President Bush began speaking about the economy, of course. From Sarge:

"Well, you can’t have gold up and the DOW down when the President is about to speak about the economy, huh??"
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?d=c&c=&k=c1&t=1d&s=%5Exau&a=v&p=s…

Gold down, stocks up in simultaneous price action. BLATANT manipulation for the zillionth time!

Comex open interest rose once more to 180,227, up another 2127 contracts. The battle is raging on between the longs and shorts, which is good. We need buyers to counter the cabal selling. A close above $330 is required for this new buying to be good news with the price and open interest doing what they have been doing the past week. A close below $320 would be negative, as the new buyers would probably then puke out these new long positions.

The up and down action during the Comex trading period is another positive. It enhances the possibilities of taking out $330.

My Comex floor sources said they thought the gold close was VERY constructive.

The CRB was battered off its 250+ highs, falling around 20 points, in part due to the oil sell-off. However, it has been hovering around its 200-day moving average of 230.39 and is bouncing off of it. The CRB closed at 231.73 up 2. Soybeans are leading the way with May beans closing at $6.10 per bushel. Meanwhile, crude oil refuses to break down to where many thought it would go if the Iraqi oilfields were left mostly intact. Crude finished the day at $29.29, spurred on by news of the closure of an Iraq to Syria oil pipeline.

Seems to me the dollar ought to take a big tumble in the weeks to come. It didn’t get much of a lift from the US liberation action in Iraq. The dollar is supported around 100 on the Index, but all rallies are snuffed. It finished the day at 100.04.

It also seems strange to me that Saddam Hussein is nowhere to be found, nor most of his family and top henchman. Where are the WMD too? The only guy who shows up is Saddam’s top nuclear scientist declaring they have no WMD’s. Something is not sitting right on this one.

As mentioned yesterday, I was stunned by the small turn out at the Montreal Resource Conference. Not only was the attendance light, but the plane was only 1/3 full on my flight to Montreal and only 1/5th full on my way back.

At the same time, it was a productive trip from GATA’s point of view and much fun. Reg Howe, James Turk, Chris Powell and I had some time to get together to discuss where GATA ought to go from here. More on that soon. We all agreed that we have proved our case and there is little point pounding away on the fact that the gold market has been manipulated for many years. Anyone in the investment/gold world that doesn’t get it by now never will. That’s not to say we won’t jump all over new bits of evidence and market events that further prove our case. It just won’t be a major focus as it has been in the past.

Bart Kitner of Kitco note was most gracious on Friday night, taking a big group out to his favorite restaurant, Gibby`s. All the restaurants we went to in Montreal were outstanding. The following evening, Chris and I were the guests of The Schectmans; David and Susan, their son Andy and his Russian born wife, Zhanna. David and Andy are partners in Miles Franklin Ltd, a flourishing coin dealer operation in St. Louis Park, Minnesota. That was a lot of laughs. Good that Chris and I had to be home early for an 8 o’clock GATA panel discussion the next morning with Reg and James.



David, me, Chris and Andy

The wrap-up dinner and excursion to a local wateringhole on Sunday was much fun too. Chris and I were the guests of Joanne "Joey" Freeze, CEO of Candente Resource Corp. On Monday, Reg, Chris and I sat down with Joey and her able Investor Relations man, Reg Advocaat (great name for that position, or what), to learn more about Candente. This is what caught the attention of the GATA group at lunch:

*Goldcorp has a 6%+ ownership position in the company and Dave Tice’s Prudent Bear Fund has something like a 17% stake.
*Focusing on gold exploration in the right places, Peru and Newfoundland.
*Their properties in Peru are located close to the big finds of the majors.
*They have built a stable of acquisitions at bargain basement prices.
*Joey is a geologist and a smart cookie.
*Last but maybe not least, excellent share price performance over the last year, from about 35 cents Canadian to more than 70 cents -- a double.

The symbol is DNT in Vancouver and CDOUF on the Pink Sheets in the U.S.

Candente is one to play close attention to as are the other fine little exploration companies such as J-Pacific Gold, Samex Mining, Seabridge Gold, X-Cal Resources, etc. By the way, the highly regarded geologist Larry Kornze is on the Board of both Candente and X-Cal.

Most of these companies have rallied 200% to 500% already off their bankruptcy-priced lows when gold was wallowing below $280 per ounce, but their move is only beginning. The biggest GOLD RUSH of all-time is ahead of us. There will be a panic to find gold supply to feed surging demand and diminishing mine supply. The majors have done little in recent years when it comes to exploration and finding gold. When gold takes out $400, they will have to turn to the quality exploration companies to replenish their reserves and plan for the future. That is why I like investing in a basket of the really good ones.-END-

Fox and Henhouse Syndrome:

SEC to Tap Fed`s McDonough for Audit Body

April 15, Tue 10:57am ET - Reuters

The Securities and Exchange Commission on Tuesday will name William McDonough, retiring president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, as head of an accounting oversight board, according to a source familiar with the situation. –END-

"This is the same McDonough who joined the board of the BIS with Alan Greenspan, just about time the manipulation of the gold price was sent into high gear."

One of the chuckles the GATA group had at the conference was discussing the amusing thought we are in danger of becoming mainstream as a result of going at it so long with no one in the establishment willing to take us on to disprove the specific facts of our case. As supporting evidence of the changing conception of GATA, I received a phone call this morning from a Washington-based Bloomberg reporter, who wanted to know more about GATA and Reg Howe’s lawsuit against The Gold Cartel and William McDonough specifically. They are doing an article about his new role. I didn’t hold back, which probably means the Bloomberg editor will cut it out, but it is amusing that I would even receive a phone call from Bloomberg about McDonough.

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

Tuesday April 15 2003

Indian banks and bullion markets were closed again today. It is possible that this particularly important holiday has slowed the country’s response to lower world prices: in which case some catch- up effect is to be expected. A little amusement has been furnished to gold’s friends in recent days by a sudden run on one of the countries largest private sector banks; one which in fact has been in the news recently as considering an attempt to revive the moribund gold deposit scheme (the idea of gathering retail gold deposits to lend to the fabrication trade). Indian confidence in financial institutions clearly remains limited, contrary to the assertions of many gold bears. See:

http://www.financialexpress.com/fe_full_story.php?content_id…

TOCOM continued uninspired, glumly accepting the gold price damage done in NY. On volume equivalent to only 20,779 Comex lots (18% down on yesterday) the active contract fell 11 yen, leaving world gold essentially unchanged from NY’s close (down 5c). Open interest did rise the equivalent of 851 Comex lots. Only the unusually noisy protests in the Japanese media about the inertia of the authorities in the face of the sickly stock market hint at anything of gold interest arising in this quarter – which, however, will eventually happen. (Gold in NY yesterday traded only 19,229 contracts: open interest rose 2,127 lots.)

Yesterday, Standard NY says:

"…short covering soon after the Comex open was quickly overcome as Investment Bank selling capped the price."

Today in Asia, in Mitsui-HK’s words,

"For most of the time gold was pinned to 325 in mixed trading."

a phrase also adopted by UBS Warburg. While, as noted yesterday, there is reason to believe that the undoubted technical obstacles in the $327-30 area has attracted a Central Bank seller, conspicuous resistance of this type inevitably draws in predatory short-selling funds. While such selling probably involves a serious misjudgment of the physical market, the confluence of holidays this week, including next Monday, when many key physical buying areas will observe Easter Monday, may mean this situation will take a little time to resolve.

JB

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

Dave Lewis

http://www.chaos-onomics.com/morn.htm

GATA’s Mike Bolser comments on the LBMA volumes:

Gold is at six-year lows for the long month of March while silver volume keeps running up against the falling gold trend. This bears careful watching.

Both these markets are manipulated in differing manners. For gold, the official sellers are the central banks while the official silver seller is unknown.

Towards the end of any price control regime, volume picks up slowly as speculators begin learn of vulnerabilities and falling resource stocks of the defender, then very rapidly as all the remaining stocks are consumed "In an instant" as Professor Maurice Obsfeldt reports

http://www.goldensextant.com/commentaryBA2.html#anchor38054

1. These diverging LBMA silver and gold volumes represent an important phenomenon and it is coming within a few weeks of my original end of Q1 2003 regression indicator [Silver`s volume was shown to be intersecting zero by regression].

Mike

-END-

Great looking HUI chart:

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?s…



The XAU also put in a good day, finishing at 66.72, up 1.26.

About two weeks ago, I suggested the gold shares were screaming buys. That looks more and more likely to be so.

GOT TO BE IN IT TO WIN IT!



www.lemetropolecafe.com