Atomkrieg gegen Pakistan: "Das macht nichts." - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[Lancelot]

Atomkrieg einkalkuliert

Kaschmir-Chefminister Farooq Abdullah: Dialog zwischen Indien und Pakistan führt zu nichts

In einer bereits völlig vergifteten Atmosphäre zwischen Indien und Pakistan sieht der Chefminister des indischen Bundeslandes Jammu und Kaschmir, Farooq Abdullah, keine andere Lösung als Krieg. Gegenüber der Zeitung The Hindustan Times lehnte er nun die Wiederaufnahme des Dialogs zwischen Neu-Delhi und Islamabad als »Nullösung« ab. Er sagte: »Gespräche führen zu nichts. Ob sie heute, morgen oder in zehn Jahren stattfinden, die Resultate werden immer die gleichen sein. Wer von Dialog redet, kennt die Realitäten nicht.« Es sei Pakistan und Pakistan allein, das Probleme in Jammu und Kaschmir schafft. Innere Ursachen für Entfremdung und Widerstand moslemischer Kaschmiren gibt es nach Abdullahs Meinung nicht.

Um den von militanten Gruppen praktizierten Terrorismus in Jammu und Kaschmir zu beenden, müsse man an dessen Wurzeln gehen. Das seien die Ausbildungslager der Rebellen im pakistanischen Teil von Kaschmir. Diese Camps müßten von Indien attackiert und zerstört werden. Auf die Frage, ob das nicht Krieg mit Pakistan bedeuten würde, antwortete der Chefminister: »Krieg ist nicht die Frage. Uns bleibt keine andere Option. Pakistan greift uns weiter an, und wir beobachten das lässig. Das hilft der Sache nicht weiter ... Wenn Amerika aus Tausenden Meilen Entfernung kommen und in Afghanistan zuschlagen kann, warum können wir es nicht. Das verstehe ich einfach nicht.«

Daß bereits drei Kriege zwischen den beiden Nachbarstaaten nicht zur Lösung der bilateralen Probleme geführt haben, kann Farooq Abdullah in seiner Auffassung nicht erschüttern, der nächste Krieg würde die Entscheidung bringen. Auf die Gefahr hingewiesen, der nächste Krieg könnte eine atomare Dimension annehmen, entgegnete der Politiker ? von Beruf Arzt ? mit schockierender Skrupellosigkeit: »Das macht nichts. Eines Tages müssen wir alle sterben. Es ist besser, an einem Tag zu sterben und die Sache ein für allemal zu regeln, als täglich den Tod im Leben zu ertragen. Genug ist genug. Es ist Zeit zu handeln. Wir alle müssen Mut fassen und uns auf Opfer vorbereiten.«

Andere indische Politiker haben in den letzten Wochen ebenfalls unversöhnliche Töne gegenüber Pakistan angeschlagen ? keiner allerdings in dieser eiskalten Offenheit des Farooq Abdullah. Breite Kreise der Öffentlichkeit teilen den Standpunkt, man sollte dem Feind im Nachbarland mehr Härte zeigen, reden sei zwecklos. Indiens Premierminister Atal Bihari Vajpayee, der auf dem Weg zur UNO-Vollversammlung Station in Moskau macht, lehnte eine Begegnung mit Pakistans Präsident General Pervez Musharraf in New York ab.

[Lancelot]

Nach Ansicht eines hochrangigen Offiziers in Neu-Delhi, der dafür plädiert, die Kampfhandlungen ins innere
Pakistan hineinzutragen, ist "Frieden oder Atomkrieg" die falsche Alternative: "In einer Situation des atomaren
Ungleichgewichts", sagt dieser Militär, der auf seiner Anonymität besteht, "erpreßt der stärkste Protagonist den
schwächsten. Doch in einer Situation des Gleichgewichts kann es nur die garantierte gegenseitige Zerstörung
geben." Mit anderen Worten, ein konventioneller Krieg größeren Ausmaßes würde nicht automatisch zu einem
atomaren Schlagabtausch führen. Andere Experten gehen sogar noch weiter. Anfang Mai entwarfen hohe
Beamte aus dem Stab des Ministerpräsidenten folgendes Szenario: Mit der Ausweitung des Kriegs kommt es
zu einem begrenzten atomaren Erstschlag seitens der Pakistaner (zwei Atomsprengköpfe), auf den als
Vergeltungsmaßnahme ein indischer Angriff mit absolut vernichtender Wirkung folgt.

....

[Lancelot]

Schenkt das der indische Ministerpräsident seinen Kindern zu Weihnachten?

http://www.flyingbuffalo.com/nucwar.htm

[benaco]

Es gibt den weg aus KASCHMIR eine eigenen unabhängigen staat machen, Pakistan und Indien geben ihren besetzetn teil ab gezwungen von der UN, werdet sehen Pakistan und Indien sind sich sofort einig und wollen die bestehenden grenzen beibehalten.
Rein meine Meinung.

[Lancelot]

Wo bleiben eigentlich die Proteste der Grünen? Ich habe noch kein einziges Wort gegen Indien gehört!

Vermutlich ist es für die Leute in unserer Friedensbewegung ein größeres Problem wenn unsere Bundeswehr warme Decken nach Afghanistan fliegt, als wenn Indien ein paar Atombomben in Richtung Pakistan abschießt.

[Lancelot]

Washington--A scenario prepared for the Pentagon by the semi-official Rand Corporation, a highly regarded think tank which receives some Federal funding, finds large-scale humanitarian operations in a nuclear combat zone in South Asia following the year 2005, which is fueled by an `unmanageable` situation in Kashmir.

The scenario, contained in Rand`s report titled `Sources of Conflict in the 21st Century: Regional Futures and U.S. Strategy,` paints a picture where `the insurgency in Indian Kashmir has become unmanageable,` so much so that `despite the best efforts of the Indian government, the insurgency has begun to spread into Punjab.`

`Recognizing that it has been left behind in its conventional military competition with India,` the scenario notes, `Pakistan sees these revolts as a way of weakening its great rival and increases its material and diplomatic support, including training and sanctuary, to both insurgencies.`

By early the following year, it predicts, `Pakistan`s involvement--never precisely subtle to begin with--becomes highly visible when two Pakistan soldiers, acting as trainers for Kashmiri insurgents, are captured in an Indian commando raid on a rebel-controlled village.`

According to the scenario, `India warns Pakistan to desist from supporting the insurgencies and threatens dire consequences. Pakistan initiates diplomatic efforts to isolate India while increasing levels of covert support for the insurgents.` In the spring of 2006, the scenario shows that `India dramatically increases its counter-insurgency operations . . . and the rebels are pushed into precipitate retreat.`

Pakistan`s response, it says, is `by infiltrating a number of special-forces teams, which attack military installations.`

India then mobilizes for war `and launches major attacks all along the international border, accompanied by an intense air campaign.`

Consequently, according to the Rand scenario, `the Indian Army makes significant penetrations in the desert sector and achieves a more limited advance in Punjab, capturing Lahore and heading north toward Rawalpindi and Islamabad.`

Additionally, `a supporting attack from Kashmir is poised to go at the proper moment,` and conventional missile and air strikes `have done extensive damage to Pakistani military infrastructure, while India`s air bases, in particular, have been hit hard by the Pakistanis.`

The scenario notes that `fearful that the Indians will use their emerging air superiority to locate and destroy the Pakistani nuclear arsenal and perceiving their military situation as desperate,` Islamabad demands that India cease all offensive operations and withdraw from occupied Pakistani territory `or face utter destruction.`

But it paints a picture of India pressing on with its conventional attacks while announcing that while it would not `initiate the escalation of the conflict,` it would `surely respond in a * * * devastating manner` to any Pakistani gambit.

Bringing in the nuclear dimension to its scenario, the Rand report then notes that as Indian forces `continue to press forward, Pakistan detonates a small fission bomb on an Indian armored formation in an unpopulated area of the desert border region; it is unclear whether the weapon was intended to go off over Pakistani or Indian territory.` India responds by destroying a Pakistani air base with a two-weapon nuclear attack.

Condemning the `escalation` to homeland attacks, Pakistan then attacks the Indian city of Jodphur with a 20-kiloton weapon and demands cessation of hostilities.

But India strikes Hyderabad with a weapon assessed to be 200 kiloton and threatens `10 times` more destruction if any more nuclear weapons are used during the conflict. Pakistan then offers a cease fire.

Meanwhile, according to the scenario, `pictures and descriptions of the devastation in Jodhpur and Hyderabad are broadcast worldwide, and Internet jockeys--playing the role ham radio operators often have in other disasters--transmit horrifying descriptions of the suffering of the civilian victims on both sides.`

This results in the United Nations immediately endorsing a massive relief effort, `which only the United States--with its airlift fleet and rapidly deployable logistics capability--can lead.`

Thus, within 48 hours--after the cease-fire has been accepted by India but before it is firmly in place--`the advance echelons of multinational, but predominantly American, relief forces begin arriving in India and Pakistan.`

In noting the constraints in such a scenario, the Rand report notes the war has rendered many air bases in both India and Pakistan only marginally usable for airlift operations.

`U.S. citizens,` it states, `are scattered throughout both countries, and the host governments` attitudes toward their evacuation are not known.`

The U.S. President meanwhile has assured the nation in a broadcast address that only the `smallest practical number` of troops will be deployed on the ground in either India or Pakistan.

In a preface to the report, Rand said the study, sponsored by the Deputy Chief of Staff, Plans and Operations, `was intended to serve Air Force longrange planning needs.`

It said the `findings are also relevant to broader ongoing debates within the Department of Defense and elsewhere.`



Wir werden wohl statt 2005 jetzt 2002 einsetzen müssen.

[Lancelot]

So könnte es sich abspielen:

India`s draft nuclear `doctrine` (which it isn`t) was greeted by most
countries (and many Indians) with despair. How can adding to the world`s
stock of nuclear weapons contribute to the cause of nuclear disarmament and
help social development of hundreds of millions of starving people? Having
been reconnaissance and survey officer of a nuclear missile regiment I
consider this a terrifying document, because all these academics don`t know
what they are talking about in terms of likely human suffering. The future
of the subcontinent could be terrible if Pakistan tries to challenge India
to a race to Armageddon.

Worldpress despatch.
Dateline: Washington, Friday, September 3, 2000: The world was stunned today
as nuclear devastation fell on the subcontinent. Enormous areas of Bombay,
Islamabad, Rawalpindi and Delhi were reduced to radioactive rubble in the
early hours of this morning (11am Washington time). Both Hyderabads have
been obliterated, as have Sargodha, Bahawalpur and Jaipur by weapons that
are thought to have had a yield of about 40 kilotons (the Hiroshima bomb was
less than half that). A later Indian strike against Karachi failed, when a
nuclear-armed Su-30 aircraft had to take evasive action and released its
weapon about fifty miles west of Pakistan`s only port city, but prevailing
winds drove massive clouds of radioactive sand across the entire urban area.
Ground zero for Pakistan`s nuclear rocket aimed at New Delhi appeared to be
symbolic-India Gate. The city`s business area, centred round Connaught
Place, no longer exists, and destruction was total in the diplomatic enclave
of Chanakyapuri and north to Civil Lines, perhaps further.
It is estimated that two million may have died in Delhi, about the same
number in Bombay and Rawalpindi, and the entire population of Islamabad,
where a bomb landed, ironically, close to Zero Point on the road from
Rawalpindi, has vanished. Pakistan`s attack on the Trombay nuclear facility
was driven off-target, but inaccuracy, did not matter: the hearts of
Pakistan and India have been laid waste.
There are smoking, contaminated, corpse-ridden ruins for hundreds of square
miles. Millions of people have disappeared-evaporated into the contaminated
air, as if they had never existed; countless more face lingering,
disgusting, disfigured death from the effects of blast and radiation. Water
supplies and crops have been poisoned. Many millions not directly affected
by the explosions will soon, die, and in particularly horrible ways.
The governments of both countries remain functioning, and prime ministers
Vajpayee and Nawaz Sharif, from their respective emergency centres of
government in Chennai (Madras) and Quetta, have said that they will fight
on. But they will die, too, with all their ministers and advisers, when the
winds and rains spread radioactive death thought the land. The countries
cannot fight on, or even survive as nations. Countless millions of refugees
are flooding out of cities and towns all over India and Pakistan, heading in
any direction that will take them away from what they fear will be
destruction of all population centres. Every main route is verge-to-verge
vehicles travelling at the snail pace of terrified and hysterical crowds.
The Rawalpindi-Peshawar road, in a bizarre development, has been seen
thousands of refugees from both cities meeting at Nowshera where there is
indescribable panic and confusion. The Khyber Pass is choked. Similar
scenes are evident in Japanese satellite pictures of the Bombay-Pune road
and at Hapur, half-way between Delhi and Moradabad. Nowhere on any escape
routes are there hygiene or medical facilities that can cope with the
exodus. Once refugees have exhausted their meagre supplies of food and water
there will be hunger, looting, disease, violence and hideous death on a
colossal scale.
An estimated hundred thousand military and civilian deaths were caused by
tactical nuclear missiles in Punjab, Sindh and Rajasthan. There was mutual
annihilation of Indian and Pakistani strike corps on Thursday morning as the
armour-heavy formations advanced into each other`s territory Hundreds of
tanks and aircraft were destroyed. US satellites show that the only
Pakistani airfields remaining are emergency strips in Balochistan from which
about a dozen F-16 are flying missions-to what purpose is not evident.
Half India`s Mirage-2000 and Su-30 fleet was hit on the ground, but the
remainder appear to be based in eastern areas from which they are operating
deep into Pakistan territory. According to the last Indian and Pakistani
news broadcasts, the sight or sound of aircraft-any aircraft-causes
devastating panic in refugee columns. Neither side has launched follow-up
nuclear strikes, possibly because of horror at the death and destruction
they unleashed-or perhaps because there is no means of doing so. Bomb stocks
are held far from emergency airfields and it would be impossible to transfer
them, even if military communications are working, which is doubtful.
Foreign intelligence reports indicate that Pakistan`s Ghauri missiles, with
the exception of the one targeted on Delhi, were destroyed on the ground, as
were India`s Agnis, two of which had been made ready for firing.
Western countries are stunned by the apocalyptic news. Although tension had
been high in the subcontinent, caused by conflict in Kashmir (which many
warned would lead to just this terrible nuclear havoc), Prime Minister
Vajpayee`s continued reiteration that bilateral discussions would resolve
their problems gave hope that fighting in that disputed territory would not
spread. Prime Minster Nawaz Sharif seemed to echo New Delhi`s assurances;
but in spite of their statements both sides continued to prepare for war.
The countries had sent armored forces close to their border in Punjab,
Rajasthan and Sindh in June and July, and then activated `bare base`
airfields and moved tactical missiles and warheads to emergency deployment
positions in August. This activity was detected by foreign agencies and
satellites, but international comment died down after an initial burst of
concern.
America`s lame-duck president gave conflicting messages to Islamabad and New
Delhi. Mr Clinton at first appeared to criticise Pakistan, but then failed
to follow-up by taking India to task for moving missiles. State Department
sources said today that warnings concerning the belligerent stances of India
and Pakistan went unheeded because President Clinton believed assurances
from both prime ministers that neither was contemplating military action,
but statements by Sharif and Vajpayee and their advisers show that there was
steady hardening of positions. Rhetoric aside, this should have alerted
foreign analysts to worsening situation, but there was no warning when
Pakistani and Indian leaders decided that mutual incursions in Kashmir
presented insults to national pride that demanded military action.
Coincidentally-and determinedly-both sides moved in parallel towards nuclear
catastrophe. UPDATE: The situation in the region is worsening minute by
minute. Commercial satellite pictures show clouds of nuclear dust being
blown in every direction. Kashmir has received unseasonal torrential rains,
mixed with radioactive particles. The dust will drop on the Himalayas from
where most water in the subcontinent originates, and all northern rivers
will be terminally contaminated. The climate in the region seems to have
altered to the point of going berserk. Hot, swirling sandstorms in the deser
ts of Rajasthan, Sindh and Balochistan have been driven into Punjab, North
West Frontier Province, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh. It seems that neighboring
countries are being affected. Reports just in from Colombo indicate rising
levels of radiation.
Tehran has complained in the strongest terms concerning fallout in Kerman,
but there is no-one to listen to such protests-and nothing that could be
done; even were they heard. The UN Security Council is sitting in emergency
session, but reports indicate that it is a hand-wringing colloquy rather
than a meeting that could solve the staggering crisis that has erupted for
the world as a whole. A handful of nuclear weapons has caused devastation on
a scale not seen since the end of the dinosaurs. All the world can do is
wait until nature takes its course, over the centuries. The subcontinent is
ceasing to exist, and no help will come from elsewhere, as even the most
saintly of aid agencies will not hazard the lives of its workers. No
government could order its troops into nuclear devastation to give
assistance, no matter how desperate the situation. Survivors in India and
Pakistan will see repulsive, terrifying and hideous scenes never before
witnessed in the world-but there will be no outside eye to observe them,
other than the lenses of unwinding, dispassionate cameras hundreds of miles
above the earth that will record forever the desolation`s waste that is the
result of pride, malevolence, intransigence-and nuclear doctrine.
The writer`s book "A History of the Pakistan Army" is about to appear in an
Urdu and a second English edition with a new final chapter