China mobile bricht langfristigen Abwärtstrend! - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

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Schon seit einigen Tagen zieht die Aktie des größten chinesischen Mobilfunkanbieters CM den Hangseng nach oben.Händlern zufolge gibt es mehrere Gründe:Zum einen ist CM nicht verschuldet wie europäische Anbieter .Desweiteren ist Chinas Mobilfunkmarkt weit entfernt von Sättigung.In den Ballungszentren Chinas besteht eine Marktsättigung von gerademal 30%!Charttechnisch liegt der nächste Widerstand bei umgerechnet 4 EU,dann ist freie Fahrt bis 6EU!

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Story [ 07.05.2002 11:16:38 ]


ANALYSIS-China Mobile defies trend, seeks debt-funded growth
By Tony Munroe
HONG KONG, May 7 (Reuters) - Debt may be a four-letter word
for over-leveraged telecoms firms in Europe and the United
States, but it is just what giant China Mobile (Hong Kong) craves
more of as it prepares to make its next network acquisition.
China`s biggest mobile carrier, which unlike nearly all of
its peers enjoys a net cash position, plans to buy networks in
eight provinces and cities from its state-owned parent by the end
of June in a move that would expand it beyond its current turf in
13 of China`s wealthiest coastal provinces.
In a departure from its previous network purchases, which it
paid for by selling billions of dollars in shares to foreign
investors, China Mobile <0941.HK> plans this time to use internal
cash and yuan-denominated debt to fund part of the purchase.
The carrier has not released details on financing for the
deal, first announced in December, that analysts said could be
worth more than US$10 billion.
But company watchers agree China Mobile has plenty of room to
boost its gearing, and should tap what is a cheaper debt funding.
"When you`ve got a balance sheet this strong, you should be
(exploiting) it," said ABN Amro telecoms analyst Joe Locke,
noting that domestically-raised debt would cost far less for
China Mobile to raise than would international equity.
"What`s better for shareholders? Cheaper capital," he said.
Flavia Cheong, fund manager at Aberdeen Asset Management in
Singapore, said: "It`s effective use of the balance sheet...
they do recognise that it is cheaper to raise debt, and it`s also
cheaper capital at home, rather than overseas."
Aberdeen includes China Mobile in its US$3 billion in Asia
holdings.
China Mobile says it would also like to issue China
Depositary Receipts (CDRs), which are domestically-listed shares
in foreign registered firms. However, Beijing has not yet
approved such a vehicle and might not do so until next year.
Absent CDRs, the firm has said it would tap interim funding.

WESTWARD, HO!
China Mobile plans to buy networks in the central and western
provinces of Anhui, Hunan, Hubei, Jiangxi, Sichuan, Shaanxi,
Shanxi and the huge municipality of Chongqing.
Those networks have roughly 25 million subscribers, by one
estimate, while Hong Kong- and New York-listed China Mobile had
nearly 75 million in its 13 provinces as of late March.
While the networks are mostly in less-affluent regions than
the carrier`s current territory, they have lower penetration
rates, offering potentially bigger future upside.
In its previous acquisitions, China Mobile has paid a
discount to market rates on a per subscriber basis, a scenario
company watchers expect will be repeated in the upcoming deal.
"Our assumption is that this will be earnings accretive...
The growth in these markets and the more efficient balance sheet
will actually create some upside for the earnings per share,"
said Merrill Lynch telecoms stock analyst Alistair Scott.
Still, plenty of investor worry pervades China`s cellular
sector, where heavy competition between the duopoly of China
Mobile and China Unicom Ltd <0762.HK> is expected to intensify
when Beijing eventually issues two new mobile licences.
And, as cellphones penetrate into less-wealthy segments of
Chinese society, per-user revenues continue to fall.
Fears over regulatory uncertainty, meanwhile, proved
justified recently when the two carriers said they must pay
millions more dollars in coming years for spectrum usage fees.
"This will probably be one of the last brighter events for
China Mobile this year," said Morgan Stanley analyst Mark Shuper.
"We could see a scenario in the second half where competition
becomes more intense if Unicom begins to roll out CDMA more
aggressively across a broader span of the market," he said,
referring to Unicom`s new CDMA-standard network.
Shares in China Mobile were off 0.58 percent to HK$25.70 at
midday on Tuesday. Both China Mobile and China Unicom were down
just over 34 percent in the 52 weeks through Monday.

SCENARIOS APLENTY
China Mobile will likely use some of the US$905 million in
net cash it had on its books at year-end to pay for the deal.
In addition, the carrier may issue bonds, borrow from banks,
issue bonds or convertible notes to its parent -- or a
combination thereof, analysts said. The carrier may also issue
shares to its parent, as it has in past acquisitions.
Whatever China Mobile and its bankers China International
Capital Corp and Goldman Sachs choose, it has plenty of options.
With EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation
and amortisation) last year of US$7.2 billion, China Mobile`s
EBITDA to net interest ratio was a stratospheric 58.5 times as of
December 31, according to Barclays Capital. Such a measure
indicates how easily a firm`s cashflow can service its debt.
By comparison, Singapore Telecommunications` <TELE.SI>
EBITDA/net interest ratio was 18.2 times while British Telecom`s
<BT.L> was 3.4 times and AT&T Corp`s (T.N) was 4.8 times.
While China Mobile enjoyed a net cash position, the net debt
to EBITDA ratio of SingTel stood at 3.2 times, while France
Telecom`s <FTE.PA> was 4.9 times and that of U.S.-based Qwest
Communications International (Q.N) was 3.4 times, Barclays said.
"You`re looking at a company that still has a significant
capacity to take on more debt," said Barclays analyst Lloyd Ong.
"Most of their peers are actually trying to de-leverage their
balance sheets."
Debt was a key factor in the global telecoms stock meltdown
that began in early 2000, although Asian firms generally did not
rack up the heavy leverage that some Western carriers did.
"People have gone too far. That`s always the problem when
people misjudge the growth prospects and they misjudge the cost
of leverage," said ABN Amro`s Locke.
But for China Mobile, the top player in a market that is the
world`s biggest and still growing, debt makes sense.
"Leverage is good. People have forgotten that," said Locke.
((Hong Kong newsroom [phone]; fax [phone]
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