Das nächste Blutbad!? Das wahre S&P 500 price/earnings ratio = 49:1! - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[peter.wedemeier1]

Das nächste Blutbad!? Das wahre S&P 500 price/earnings ratio = 49:1!

Und damit ist der breite Markt noch extrem überbewertet. Der S&P 500 wird auf einem super-überbewerteten 49-fachem Gewinn gehandelt. Dieses bedeutet das die Unternehmen 49 Jahre benötigen um das Äquivalent zu dem aktuellen Aktienkurs zurück zu verdienen.
Würdest du in ein Unternehmen investieren welches 49 Jahre benötigt um dein schwer verdientes Geld zurück zu verdienen? Ich denke nicht!
Das normale historische Bewertungsniveau für das price/earnings ratio ist 15. Dieses bedeutet, das der S&P 500 um 68% fallen muß auf 277 Punkte um gerade mal auf ein historisch normales Bewertungsniveau zu kommen. Sobald die Investoren feststellen wie schlecht tatsächlich die Unternehmensgewinne sind und dafür werden zum Teil diese Woche die Medien in den USA sorgen, werden Sie Ihre Aktien wie die Verrückten verkaufen. (Crash ähnlich) Der nächste Abwärtsschwung wird noch intensiver werden als der vorherige. Die Überbwertung vom S&P 500 impliziert einen nötigen Absturz von mehr als 68% um gerade mal auf ein normales Bewertungsniveau zu kommen. Für den Dow Jones bedeutet dieses für den Anfang einen Fall von 1200 Punkte auf das Unterstützungsniveau von 7.200. Dieses wird aber nur der Anfang sein. Danach wird ein Fall auf 600 und tiefer folgen.

True S&P 500 price/earnings ratio: 49-to-1!
This study proves, beyond a shadow of a doubt, that the stock market is still extremely
overvalued. The S&P 500 Index, for example, is trading at 898. The study shows their
true combined earnings per share are $18.48 -- so the S&P 500 is still selling for a
super-overvalued 49 times earnings!

That means it will take those companies 49 years to earn back the equivalent of the share
prices. Would you invest in a company where it will take 49 years to earn your money
back? Heck no!

Historically, the normal valuation for the price-to-earnings ratio is 15. This means the S&P
could plummet 68% -- all the way down to 277 -- just to get back to historical valuation.
The S&P study is going to start hitting the media this week. It`s going to whack investors
on the backside of the head.

The entire world is soon going to know how phony corporate earnings are. They`re going
to sell stocks like crazy -- which is going to kick off the next leg down. The selling should
be more intense than the first leg down because, as we just showed you, the S&P`s
overvaluation alone implies a decline of as much as 68% just to get back to a normal level.

In the Dow, this means a 1,200-point haircut back to the 7200 support level is just the
beginning. Then, to 6600 and MUCH lower!

Weiss Safe Money report

[HamburgerRoyalTS]

Die nächste Zeitbombe sind die Verpflichtungen aus Pensionsfnds die US-Amerikanische Firmen haben. GM muß für jedes verkaufte Auto umgerechnet 900 Dollar in diese Fonds abführen, einem beschäftigten GM-Arbeiter stehen 2,5 GM-rentner gegenüber, da kommt auf die Firmen noch was zu (aktuell in Spiegel -Online)

[YoyoStock]

..so stehts geschrieben..so soll es sein

[Cashmandt]

ich tippe eher auf dow 200 und s+p 50 punkte.....
dann schaufel ich mir schnell noch ein grab bevor wir in die steinzeit zurückfallen...
scheinen aber einige schon gelandet zu sein...;-)

[peter.wedemeier1]

Nighlty FUDD Report
ACTUAL earnings are less than one-half of what
companies are reporting. The S&P 500 companies
claim combined earnings of $41.58 per share, but
the actual earnings are a mere $18.48.

Many of America`s largest companies that are
reporting positive earnings are actually losing
money hand over fist. General Motors, for
example, is reporting $3.21 annual earnings, but
according to S&P, it`s actually losing $4.22 per
share. Amazing!

S&P`s findings confirm what we`ve been telling you all
along -- that lies, distortions, and half-truths in
corporate earnings haven`t stopped. The news is going
to take the wind out of the bear market rally and set
off the next leg down in stocks.

In this report, we`ll show you how they`re cheating
and what you need to do to start bagging enormous
profits like 173% ... 100% ... 231% ... 266% and
more, with put options on overvalued turkeys.


Dear Friend,

What a nightmare!

· IBM reports $3.21 in earnings ... it`s actually earning only 17 cents a share!
· Apple Computer reports 49 cents a share -- but it`s really losing 61 cents per share!
· General Motors reports $3.21, but it too is actually LOSING $4.22 a share!
How are these companies fudging their financials? According to a new study from S&P,
which confirms our warnings ...

· They issue billions of dollars in stock options to employees and executives, but
don`t count it as pay.
· They jiggle the returns on employee pensions in a way that allows them to avoid
recording liabilities from falling investments.
· They classify certain expenses as "one-time" charges -- which don`t have to be
deducted from earnings.
Just look at Motorola, for example: They had these so-called one-time charges for 15
consecutive quarters. And they say those are ONE-TIME charges!? Who do they think
they`re kidding?! Apparently Motorola has been using this accounting mumbo-jumbo to
successfully overstate its earnings by billions of dollars for nearly four years!

[bibl]

www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/0,1518,220312,00.html

[liebemachtblind]

stimmt die amis werden noch einen crash erleben
der dollar fällt
der dollar ist immer ein vorindikator
deutschland wird logischerweise mitfallen
andy

[Informator]

@ Peter

Wenn dir US-Aktien zu teuer sind, dann kaufe Aareal Bank

KGV 4,5
alle Analysten erwarten steigende Gewinne, auch heute noch, wo sie ansonsten nur noch Abgruende sehen
Preis-Buch 0,4 (d.h. geschenktes Geld)
RoI knapp 10%

all die Suenden der US-Firmen (Optionen, Pensionsschummel etc.) gibts dort nicht.

[peter.wedemeier1]

Richard Russell on the Markets

Most investors, and this includes most analysts, just don`t know how bear markets work. Either that or they don`t want to know. After all, when your assets are on the line, and probably more frightening, when your job is on the line -- there`s one thing you want to hang on to? That one thing is HOPE.

I wrote a whole piece on HOPE and it`s posted on the home page of this site. The essence of the piece is that hope is a killer when it comes to the stock market. What I suggest is that you substitute REALITY for hope. Anytime you find yourself "hoping" in this business, if you analyze your situation carefully, you`ll probably find that behind your hope is a loss situation. You`ve done something wrong, and you`re hoping the market will bail you out.

My suggestion, instead of hoping that the market will save you -- MOVE. Correct what you`ve done wrong.

A lot of people are hoping that the worst is over, and that this bear market is history. Unfortunately, it`s not going to be that easy. The problem, at least the number one problem, is that stocks are still expensive. As I noted in a recent site, the new S&P "core earnings" for the S&P are $18.48. On that basis the S&P is selling for a ridiculous 48 times earnings. You want to be more conservative? Then take the S&P P/E as listed in Barron`s at 33 times earnings. That`s also ridiculous. The simple fact is that stocks remain hugely overvalued.

Bear markets don`t end with stocks being overvalued. Bear markets end with stocks being undervalued. I`ve written many times that the only cycle that I believe in is not a timing cycle. It`s a value cycle. It`s the cycle from overvaluation (at or near a bull market`s high) to undervaluation (at or near a bear market`s low).

Everything else in this business is a matter of dealing with the action between these two extremes.

The simples and most fundamental concepts are the most difficult to understand. And the simplest and most fundamental concept in the stock market is the great swings from overvaluation to undervaluation and back to overvaluation again.

Why is the valuation cycle so difficult to understand, or I should say to accept? It`s difficult because it goes against human nature -- it`s counter-intuitive Dow wrote about it 100 years ago, and I`ll repeat what Dow wrote for the benefit of new subscribers --

There is always a disposition in people`s minds to think that existing conditions will be permanent. When the market is down and dull, it is hard to make people to believe that this is a prelude to a period of activity and advance. When prices are up and the country is prosperous, it is always said that while preceding booms have not lasted, there are circumstances connected with this one which make it unlike its predecessors and give assurance of permanency. The one fact pertaining to all conditions is that they will change.

There`s a concept that was written a century ago and one that is just as true now as it was the day when Dow wrote it. And it`s also just as disbelieved.

A bear market is a tragedy. It`s a tragedy because it`s relentless and inevitable. A bear market is a product and a result of man`s fear and stupidity. A bear market is the antidote to a bull market. A bull market at its zenith is a product of man`s greed and stupidity. Bull markets and bear markets both occur because people have short memories and because people, at least most people, never learn.

"OK, Russell, what are you leading up to?"

Simply this -- Investing and the stock market are a business. Hundreds of thousands of people are involved in the investment industry. And that means that there`s a huge bias and comfort in remaining always bullish. Investors hate a bear market because a bear market means losses. Today we read that between the first quarter and second quarter of 2002 mutual funds worldwide lost 8.1% of their value. That`s hardly going to make the millions of people who hold mutual funds happy.

We see the pain in the decline of margin debt on the NYSE. In March 2000 NYSE margin debt was $278 billion. The latest report for September 2002 shows that margin debt has collapsed to a new low of $130.2 billion. That`s a decline of 53%.

Why the decline in margins? The decline is a record of traders being knocked out of the box. When traders quit, when they are losing, they exit the game. And as they exit the margin accounts on the NYSE decline.

Before this bear market is over, I expect NYSE margin accounts to be down around $30 billion or lower. I expect that they will be about 10% of what they were at the high.

In the meantime, the investment industry struggles on. Wall Street carries on. The idea is to survive, to get through this bear market intact, with a job, with some assets.

Every bear market is different. Each bear market has its own way of generating losses. Because the greatest and most speculative bull market in history ended on September 23, 1999, I expect this bear market to generate the greatest losses in US history.

I`m trying not to be pessimistic. I`m trying to be realistic. That`s the way I see it. How do we survive this bear market? What do we do to come out as "whole" as possible. I wish to God I knew. I don`t know because I don`t know what lies ahead.

My guess is that almost every class and type of asset will be hurt. I`ve taken refuge in bonds and gold. Bonds because I think the Fed is going to drive rates down in Japan-like fashion. So far I`ve been right. But with the money that the bonds are throwing off I put into T-bills and gold.

Why gold? Because if this nation lapses into deflation, debt is going to be crushed, wiped out. People will be looking for something that is immune to bankruptcy. That something is gold, the only financial assets that can`t be bankrupted because gold is pure money, cash. Gold has a 5000 year history of being accepted as real money. Nothing else qualifies. Nothing takes the place of gold.



Richard Russell
Editor-in-chief - DOW THEORY LETTERS
www.dowtheoryletters.com

November 2, 2002

The inimitable and venerable Mr. Russell gained wide recognition via a series of over 30 Dow Theory and technical articles that he wrote for Barron`s during the late-`50s through the `90s. Through Barron`s and via word of mouth, he gained a wide following. Russell was the first (in 1960) to recommend gold stocks. He called the top of the 1949-`66 bull market. And almost to the day he called the bottom of the great 1972-`74 bear market, and the beginning of the great bull market which started in December 1974.

[peter.wedemeier1]

Take this rate cut and stuff it
Strategists, led by Richard Russell, heap abuse on market


Thom Calandra
CBS.MarketWatch
11:15 AM ET Nov 7, 2002

NEW ORLEANS (CBS.MW)
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/calandra/calandra110702.ht…

[peter.wedemeier1]

A most respectable call for $3,000 gold

By: Tim Wood


Posted: 2002/11/07 Thu 21:12 ZE2 | © Mineweb 1997-2002


NEW ORLEANS

Russell believes a crossover between gold and the Dow Jones Industrial Average to be inevitable. He subsequently pegged his best bet - $3,000 per ounce of gold and 3,000 on the Dow.


http://www.mips1.net/mgno.nsf/Current/85256C67003B8C9C42256C…

[dosto]

hopen tuen popen

hier will ein poster die welt schalöu machen um auf seine
minenwerte zu elnken.

aber erw ird pech haben, seine goldbonanzas werden keine
kohle bringen, die minen leben nählich keine 50 jahre, mit denen sie derzeit teilweise schon berwertet werden.
und sollt ed er goldpreis in die höhe schnellen, dann is auch nix mit mehr kohle,
zuviel der produktion wurde schon verhedged.

also wo liegt die kohle
im puten von dow und sp 500
so stwehts oben geschrieben.

nun legt mal eure kohle,
auch da wird man euch gehörig abzocken,
im puten geht das teilweise very easy.

wann entstehen hier eigentlich mal konstuktive bords,
wo echt meinungen und vorschläge geschrieben stehen,
wie man am besten an der börse gewinnt.
stattdessen immer wieder solche allgemeinplätze,
in denen nur geschwätz ohne substanz abläuft.

[peter.wedemeier1]

@dosto
Entweder hast du von Tuten und Blasen keinen blassen Schimmer oder du warst wohl kurz vor Mitternacht total besoffen!
Also es gibt gehedgte Minen, z. B. Barrick und Placer Dome. Diese werden von einem steigenden Goldpreis nicht so stark profitieren wie ungehedgte Minen. Gehedgte Minen befinden sich nun aber gar nicht in meinem Depot und empfehle ich somit auch nicht. Die ungehedgten Minen werden von einem steigenden Goldpreis profitieren (und sie sind nicht in 50 JAHRE im Voraus bewertet, wer hat dir denn so einen Quatsch erzählt.) Aber das der Dow Jones in sptätestens 3 Jahren auf die in dem Artikel genannten 3000 Punkte fällt, darauf kannst du schon wetten abschließen. Indem du dir langlaufende Put Optionsscheine auf den Dow Jones, die Nasdaq, JP Morgan Chase und Citigroup holst. Wie gesagt langlaufende. Damit kannst du auch einen schönen Profit einfahren. Du hast doch in deinem besoffenen Kopf gefragt ob hier nicht mal jemand gewinnbringende Posts bringen kann. Daneben kaufe dir physisches Gold und Silber und kaufe dir die Minen die ich dir empfehle. Denke daran A. Greenspan hat um 50 (fünfzig) Basispunkte die Zinsen gesenkt. Er muß also über katastrophale Daten der US- Wirtschaft verfügen.

Gruß Peter

[peter.wedemeier1]

Business As Usual?
http://www.tocqueville.com/brainstorms/brainstorms.php?id=12…

[lachsack01]

*Grins* Schon wieder so ein Gold Guru, dem die Gold-Baisse der letzten Jahre den Verstand geraubt hat. Hauptsache immer schön an den Verschwörungstheorien (`Goldpreis wird künstlich gedrückt`, `Dow müßte eigentlich schon lange bei 1000 Punkten stehen`,...) festhalten und dabei immer verschrobener und fanatischer werden. Ihr Gold-Gurus liegt seit Jahren daneben und wollt Euch Euer Versagen nicht eingestehen. Bei jeder kleinen Erholung kommt Ihr dann zur prächtigen Unterhaltung aller aus den Löchern gekrochen. Köstlich!

[peter.wedemeier1]

"The keynote speaker at this year’s New Orleans Investment Conference, it was not just another gold bug message. Russell’s reputation was minted through uncannily accurate trend spotting that made his followers truly wealthy, which is why the audience swelled to hear him."
Zitat aus: #11

[konradi]

Seid vorsichtig mit Eurer platten Kritik an den goldbugs
und lest Euch erst mal ein in die Thematik !

Und Peter kennt sich sehr gut aus, darauf könnt Ihr wetten -
- auch wenn er für mein Empfinden stets etwas "zuviel des Guten" tut

Konradi

[peter.wedemeier1]

U.N. Security Council Unanimously OKs U.S. Iraq Resolution
Source: Fox News

[peter.wedemeier1]

[peter.wedemeier1]

From Daily Reckoning
11/09/02

*** But there is good news, I told the audience at the New
Orleans Investment Conference yesterday. Back in the 60s,
Charles de Gaulle noticed that the U.S. could make the
dollar worth whatever it wanted. At the time, the `gold
window` at the Fed was still open; a foreign nation could
still step up and ask to have its dollars redeemed for
gold. De Gaulle figured he would rather have gold than
dollars and started a trend.

By 1972, the Fed was alarmed. Gold was rushing out too
fast. So, Nixon `closed the gold window,` setting off a
boom in the gold market that carried the price of the
metal up 2,000%.

If a government wanted protection against the dollar, they
had to buy gold on the open market - which drove up the
price.

But individual Americans were prohibited from owning gold.
My friend Jim Blanchard, who began this New Orleans
conference, started a "Committee to Legalize Gold." After
a few years, he succeeded.

Which brings us back to the good news. The `gold window`
at the Fed is still closed. But there is a gold window
open in the market. By the end of the `70s, you could buy
the Dow stocks for about the same price as an ounce of
gold. Gold investors thought they were geniuses. Today, an
ounce of will barely buy 4% of the Dow, and goldbugs -
including your editor - are widely considered idiots.
But a major bear market has a way of turning things
around.

Our advice is the same as de Gaulle`s: take advantage of
the gold window while it is still open to you.

[peter.wedemeier1]

COMMENTS FROM JIM SINCLAIR:

This is going to be the toughest call of this entire $300 - $330 sideways movement. The reason why is because, as we enter the $320 - $325 range, there is a knee-jerk reaction in the gold market. The gold market is so used to the arrival of JPM, Lehman, Goldman and Merrill as sellers pounding the market, that gold shares now almost automatically decelerate, as a knee-jerk reaction to gold being at the the $320 -$325 price. At this price, the gold shares` appreciation decelerates and actually stops dead in their tracks.

What the market has failed to realize is that these gold dealers, due to their own liquidity situations, are now no longer the big position takers in gold as they were before. All they have been doing lately is exercising clients` orders. The sellers of gold that have come into gold market at the $320 - $325 area have not been the gold cartel. They have been the local floor traders and speculator computer traders. Again, not the cartel. This is why we have had higher lows as we chop sideways.

I firmly believe the chances of taking out the $330 level to the upside before Christmas is real because the significant enemy of the gold price, the gold cartel, is out of business. They have had their trading capital called back to the parent holding company because of the effects of the credit downgrade on the parent holding companies. When the market wakes up that the enemy is no longer there, no event will be required to take gold above $330. It will simply go there.

Here is how we will determine if gold is going to break out above $330:

Have you wondered how I was able to determine the heads up and buy/sell points in this rally? Well, thanks to RGLD/GG and the use of proprietary measures in the duration period of the chart, the slow stochastic and Williams %R, I have when these leading (action-wise) gold shares entered an oversold condition, began to look for the buy and overbought for the sell. Now as gold approaches $330, if the gold shares (which historically know more about gold than gold does) are not into the overbought condition that have been so accurate, we will assume $330 is going to breach and NOT SELL our 1/3.

This means we are remaining disciplined, but being superbly focused. I will, as we near this situation, be doing daily technical reviews. I consider the market at this time more critically positive than ever before in this 11-month rally. The magnificently symmetric, three-year golden tea cup formation* would break to the upside out of the handle at a close above $330. This type of a formation, over this amount of time, is extremely rare and super bullish. I have in my 43 years never seen a technical formation of this kind for this long a duration with this type of symmetry. It is rare and important. This type of a formation will launch only one thing, a huge Bull market, if resolved to the upside. The probability of failure after gold breaks to the upside above $330 from this type of a formation is less than 10%. Those odds are outrageously good for the long.

We know the bull market in gold started 11 months ago, but history will record the breakout above the handle on the golden tea cup as "The Birth of the Gold Bull Market." This will occur because the amount of appreciation above the handle will be orders of magnitude compared to the 11-month appreciation we have already witnessed. Be assured that I am focused and will be keeping the Gold community as closely focused.

[peter.wedemeier1]

Sunday, Nov. 17, 2002
Cash Out Now!
It only sounds crazy. Here`s why you should borrow against your house and buy stocks
By DANIEL KADLEC

http://www.time.com/time/globalbusiness/printout/0,8816,3915…

[dosto]

antwort auf no. 13

danke
aber ich werds fein bleiben lassen, und deinen empfehlungen erst mal nicht folgen.
habe da meine eigene theorie, und beteilige mich spekulativ
am golde, physisch bin ich nusimatiker und besitze ein paar aureuse und soliduse, die müssen reichen 100 u. 200 Euro
gold will i njet.
also goldminen bis 50 cents, da bin ich dabei, auch wenn sie noch nicht produzieren, sondern fein säuberlich explordieren um dann gezielt abzubauen.
deine minen bauen halt so ab, was im weg steht, einmal
gehen die kosten runter, ein anderes mal gehen die kosten rauf.
die 50 jahre sinddarauf bezogen:
daß manche minenaktien derat bewertet sind, daß alles gold das sie aus diesen bestehenden minen herausfischen, nicht die marketcap ergeben kann.
nur wenn der goldpreis ganz rapide ansteigt, dann wird vielleicht was draus.
300 $ sind aber für die meisten immernoch reichlich knapp,
um satt zu verdienen.

90% aller haben hedge-programme, und hedge-programme
haben natürlich die angewohnheit, daß sie sofort wieder eröffnet werden können,
also über die politik der minen hast du gar keine gewähr,
weil keiner von uns deren ausrichtung kennt.

im übrigen wurde von den goldies niemals angesprochen, was eigentlich passiert
wenn gold wieder unter die 280 fallen sollte,
ist dann das latein am ende.
also auschließen kann man das ja nicht.
und du ja als eine solche kapazität zählst
dann kannst du mir ja in etwa mal posten,
wo die kurse von -nem-au- etc dann stehen werden.
mich interessiert nämlich bei jedem investment auch mein risiko, aber damit hat wohl keiner was am hut,
es werden wie immer lediglich gewinne hochgerechnet,
was passiert wenn allein der goldpreis so zwischen 300-350
dahinschwankt, nämlich stagnation der kurse, das wurde ganz,
ganz selten zum ausdruck gebracht.

aber bestimmt täusch ich mich da,
da ich 100% zu denjenigen gehöre die markte nie so eindeutig
wie ihr heraufbeschwören und entscheiden kann.
für mich bleibt das immer wieder eines der ewigen rätsel,
mit open end,
auch die soziolöogische struktur ist für mich nicht beherschbar, ich gehöre allerdings aucvh nicht zu den manipulteuren, ichversuche ein guter -SEHER- zu werden,
ohne mir einzubilden wirklichen einfluß auf die dinge zu haben.
thats all.

und angst machen (anderen) find ich ne schweinerei.
das ist jetzt nicht auf die poster an sich bezogen,
die die sich getroffen fühlen, die dürfens aber ruhig sein.

[peter.wedemeier1]

Broad Market Comment

S&P500 Index
Clive Maund
Archives
26 November, 2002

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/maund/maund112602.html

Nun werft alle eure Aktien vom breiten Markt auf den Markt. Die Rallye ist vorüber! LOL Dagegen sollten Gold- und Silberminenaktien sehr gut ansteigen können, wenn der breite Markt einen schönen C R A S H !!!! hinlegt.

peter.wedemeier1

[peter.wedemeier1]

Trading the Put/Call Ratio

Adam Hamilton

December 6, 2002

http://www.zealllc.com/2002/putcall.htm

Dieser Hamilton Essay sagt aus, das wir nun an dem Punkt von dem nächsten großen breiten Markt selloff angekommen sind und ich denke das wir die Precious Metals nach oben steigen sehen, während der Dollar sinkt.

Gruß

[peter.wedemeier1]

Pop Goes the Bubble – Part I: Sell Stocks Now!

By: M.A. Nystrom, Depression2.tv



The recent 8 week rally in the broad stock market has come to an end. The bear market rally from an intraday low of 768 on October 10th to the intraday high of 954 on December 2 represents a sweet 24% gain if you managed to catch it, but still nothing more than a counter trend bull rally in the larger unfolding bear market. If you are still holding equities of any kind, in any of your accounts, now is the time to sell!



Pop Goes the Bubble – Part I:

Sell Stocks Now!

http://www.goldseek.com/cgi-bin/news/Depression2/1039506757.…

[peter.wedemeier1]

Gold Locus
The Paper Shredder
S&P500 Index

Brian C Dobson
Gold Bug and Elliot Wave Analyst from Downunder
15 December 2002

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/dobson/dobson121502.html

[peter.wedemeier1]

Inter-Market Relationships Analysis
IMRA
Kevin Klombies
December 16, 2002

Chart Presentation:
On the dollar and gold
Even a blind pig can find some corn every now and then...

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/klombies/klombies121602.ht…