Harmony und ein mögliches Gold-Kartell - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[volkmar30]

Die Goldgemeinde grübelt derzeit darüber nach, warum Harmony Gold Fields feindlich übernehmen will.

Dazu kam mir folgender Geistesblitz: Vielleicht hat Herr Bernhard Swanepoel von Harmony im Sinn, ein Gold-Kartell zu gründen, und damit entscheidenden Einfluß auf den Goldpreis auszuüben, so wie es die OPEC in den 1970er Jahren mit dem Ölpreis gemacht hat. Hat er erst einmal genügend Einfluß auf die weltweite Goldproduktion, kann er Förderkürzungen erzwingen und damit den Goldpreis aufgrund der Angebotslücke nach oben treiben. Damit würde er den Goldpreis und damit die Gewinne seines Unternehmens frühzeitig von der Wechselkursproblematik befreien und außerdem seine Konkurrenten schwächen, die noch große Bestände an unrealisierten Hedgingpositionen in den Büchern haben und einen plötzlichen Goldpreisanstieg vorläufig gar nicht gebrauchen können.

Demnach sollte meiner Meinung nach die Gold Fields-Übernahme durch Harmony erst der Anfang einer weiteren Reihe von feindlichen Übernahmen sein, die 2005 die ganze Goldminenbranche aufmischen werden. Potentielle Übernahmekandidaten wären alle Minen, die keine Vorwärtsverkäufe mehr tätigen mit Ausnahme der Minen in den USA, da diese vermutlich massiv unter dem Einfluß der FED stehen.

Wenn Herr Swanepoel mit seiner Strategie Erfolg hat, dürfte sich am Ende zwei Lager gegenüberstehen. Die Goldminen in den USA gegen das von Harmony dominierte Goldkartell.

Diesen Gedanken möchte ich hiermit zur Diskussion stellen und hoffe auf rege Teilnahme

Den gleichen Gedanken habe ich übrigens auch im Goldseiten-Forum platziert (http://www.goldseiten-forum.de/thread.php?sid=&postid=30744#…).


Volkmar

[hpoth]

@ 1
Glaube Hamony ist selbst dazu alleine nicht in der Lage, da müßten noch andere mitmachen z.B. Angolgold, aber wer weiß schon genau wie hier gespielt wird Der Gdanke als solches ist schon überlegenswert.Die Goldstrategen in SA werden sich schon was ausdenken.

Gruß hpoth

[Robert_Reichschwein]

Wem gehören eigentlich die südamerikanischen und russischen Goldfelder?

Ich bleibe bei meiner Meinung, daß Gold nicht stärker als die Inflationsrate(real) steigen wird.

Es gibt genug Gold in der Erde und in längstens zwei Jahren ist eine neue Mine förderfähig.

[Robert_Reichschwein]

...kurzfristig wird es vielleicht für ein Kartell reichen, dass zusammen so 9-10 Millionen Unzen/Jahr produziert, wieviel ist das? 300 Tonnen? Das reicht nicht um den Markt wesentlich zu beeinflussen, wenn man davon ausgeht, daß der Weltverbrauch 3500Tonnen ist. Da wiegen die Zentralbankverkäufe schwerer...

Achtung: alle Zahlen sind grob geschätzt, keine Ahnung, wie diese wirklich sind!!!

[Cashlover]

"Ich bleibe bei meiner Meinung, daß Gold nicht stärker als die Inflationsrate(real) steigen wird."

War es nicht auch deine Meinung, die den DAX in diesem Jahr bei 6000 Punkten gesehen hat?

Sowohl das Eine als auch das Andere kannste vergessen

[jeffery2]

Dann hätte ja Wolfgang Bogen, der Fibonaccikünstler, recht, dass Gold auf 3200 $ steigt.
Irgendwie steigen wird es schon!
J2

[Saccard]

Jaja, 2 Jahre..

Driefontein hat 32 Jahre gedauert. Ein Schacht kostet in Südafrika bei den Tiefen 500 bis 1000 Mrd., Driefontein, Western Deep Levels und Kloof haben zusammen mehrere Dutzend.

In Vaal Reefs, Far West Rand und Free State wurden auf heutige Kapitalkostenverhältnisse umgerechnet über 130 Mrd. US$ investiert, nur mal so zur Info.

Gruß
S.

[hpoth]

# All,
2 Jahre eine Goldmine fertig? Es dauert bis zu 6-7 Jahre bis ein Bergwerk feritg gestellt wird. Vieleicht eine Tagebaumine wie in China oder Vietnam da ist es früher möglich.Bei den Fiat Money das im Umlauf ist, gibt es viel zu wenig Gold.Die Zentralbankverkäufe haben fast keinen Einfluss mehr ,die Preise werden deshalb schon steigen dank fehlender Alternativen.Das Angebot aus Zentralbankenreserven ist gemäß den Analysten von GFMS gegenüber der Nachfrage zu gering, um einen grossen Preiseffekt zu haben. Was anderes ist es mit den Hegdefonds, die ja jede Preisbewegung sorfort nutzen long oder short gehen, da kann es natürlich immer wieder zu Rücksetzer kommen, da der Goldmarkt ja sehr eng ist, können sich hier die H-Fonds austoben.
Gruß hpoth

[Robert_Reichschwein]

@Cashlover: Die Meinung, daß der DAX auf 6000 steigt habe ich nicht mehr!

@Saccard: Ich meinte natürlich eine Tagebaumine, in der in grossem Stil Gestein geringer Konzentration (ca. 3g/Tonne) angereichert wird.

Gibt es genug Vorkommen, eine Inbetriebnahme der Mine braucht ca. knapp 2 Jahre.

@Alle: Wenn die Reichen dieser Welt sich aufs Gold in Metallform stürzen wird der Preis explodieren, keine Frage.

[volkmar30]

Dieser Artikel aus der Business Week vom 5.11.2004 unterstützt meine These, daß sich die Goldminen zu einem Kartell verbünden könnten:


---
Durban Deep CE moots mega mine?

DURBAN - Roodepoort Deep CE Ian Murray has called for pooling of assets to create a mega goldmine in Carletonville.
He said yesterday that this would be the best way of extending the life of the mines in the area, and that his proposal would stand whether or not Harmony was successful in its hostile bid for Gold Fields.

Murray said there was scope for further consolidation in the South African gold-mining sector, and he wanted a slice of the action.

"With its bid for Gold Fields, Harmony is shaking the tree, and that is going to start the next wave of consolidation," he said.

He said there could be major synergies through combining four mines Gold Fields` Driefontein, AngloGold Ashanti`s Savuka, Durban Deep`s Blyvooruitzicht and Harmony`s Elandsrand.

"All the mining assets in SA are tightly held, but we do think there is room for further consolidation, and for regional consolidation, such as at Carletonville," he said .

"There is one ore body there, and there is a need to pull all the mines into one company." He warned, however, that such a move would require all those involved to "drop their egos".

"This makes sense for the country and for the industry, and we need all the players to sit around and discuss it."

Murray said that Durban Deep "would be a willing buyer", and it was unlikely that any of the other players would wish to acquire all the Carletonville mines.

He said a combined mine would be more than the sum of its parts, and that the life of the reserves, which were approaching their end , could be extended through consolidation and "that would have to be in SA`s best interests" .

He said that if the Harmony bid were successful, he would want to speak to Harmony, "and if not, we would want to speak to both Harmony and Gold Fields".

He said there could be similar consolidation opportunities for gold assets in the Klerksdorp area, and that there should be more deal-making in SA, citing the example of Australia.

"Whenever I go to Sydney, there are so many assets, with hundreds of listed gold companies. People are keen to do business, and there are lots of deals to be done."

He said the company could make a small margin on its South African operations at the current rand gold price after shedding a third of its workers. Durban Deep was known as the Roodepoort Rocket, he said, for its ability to react to changing conditions, and a "10% rise in the rand gold price has historically led to an increase of over 50% in our share price".

Business Day
---

Dank an "Kuddel" vom Goldseiten-Forum (http://www.goldseiten-forum.de//thread.php?postid=31715#post…).


Volkmar

[superman6]

Gold Fields questions Harmony reserves
In a statement published on Tuesday, 9 November 04, Gold Fields stated that it believes that both Gold Fields and Harmony shareholders are owed an explanation about the material discrepancies in Harmony`s published reserve numbers. Harmony indicated that they would publish an updated reserve statement by December. However, given that Harmony`s first stage offer expires on 26 November, this is too late for Gold Fields shareholders who cannot be expected to make an informed decision on the Harmony offer while discrepancies of this nature remain unexplained. In its Annual Reports for 2003 and 2004, Harmony claims to have 62 million ounces of reserves. Neither of these declarations are supported by an independent audit opinion.

[jeffery2]

Jetzt werden auch die Dreckskübel ausgeleert. Weiteres bei Kitco, so wie auch dieser Artikel von Manfred.
shit für die Aktien, ist ja wohl klar.
J2

[hpoth]

#12
Aus Finanzen und Wirtschaft:

Im Goldsektor erregt nach wie vor die feindliche Übernahmeofferte von Hamrony an Gold Fields.Der zweit größte Goldförderer sieht im Versuch von Hamony,die Kontrolle in zwei Etappen zu erwerben,einen Verstoss gegen die Börsenbestsimmungen.

gruß hpoth

[superman6]

Harmony und Gold Fields sind beide günstig.

Dank der versuchten Übernahme.

[superman6]

Sind ja beide Werte schon dabei.

Top 5 Performing Gold Equities
(among 49 listed on the various gold indices)
Company Symbol Time(EST) Price Change $ Change %
Golden Star Resources Ltd GSC.TO 13:56 5.22 CAD +0.11 +2.15%
Gold Fields Ltd NYSE:GFI 13:53 14.17 USD +0.27 +1.94%
Golden Star Resources Ltd AMEX:GSS 13:53 4.37 USD +0.07 +1.63%
Harmony Gold Mining Company Ltd AMEX:HMY 13:52 11.42 USD +0.16 +1.42%
Western Areas Limited JSE:WAR 17:00 2,600 ZAR +25 +0.97%
more gold and precious metal mining stocks...

[volkmar30]

#12, #14:

Die derzeitige Underperformance der Aktienkurse von Harmony und Gold Fields dürfte dafür sorgen, daß die Werte von kurzfristig orientierten Investoren (Zocker) gemieden werden. Damit sind spätere Kursanstiege nach unten abgesichert und nachhaltiger.


Volkmar

[goldmaki]

11.01.2005 16:08:
Gold Fields: Harmony`s Hostile Offer Should be Abandoned

JOHANNESBURG, South Africa, January 11 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- The Board of Directors of Gold Fields Limited (Nachrichten) (GFI: JSE and NYSE) wishes to reiterate its position regarding the unsolicited hostile offer from Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited.

The Board is convinced that Gold Fields` shareholders share its view that Harmony`s hostile offer has little merit, as is evidenced by the fact that only 11.5% of Gold Fields` shareholders accepted Harmony`s Early Settlement Offer, and, in order to stop the ongoing value destruction for shareholders of both companies, should be abandoned.

The Board of Gold Fields remains committed to maximising value for all of Gold Fields` shareholders. The Board believes that the Harmony offer does not represent a fair value for Gold Fields; takes no account of the high quality of Gold Fields` asset base; does not reflect the benefits that successful international diversification has brought to Gold Fields` shareholders; and does not reflect the troubled financial and operational condition of Harmony, nor the positive operating trend that Gold Fields is experiencing.

Shareholders are advised that the Board of Gold Fields continues to oppose Harmony`s hostile offer vigorously, as the Board believes:

1) The hostile offer grossly undervalues Gold Fields; consists of only Harmony`s over-valued shares with no cash element; and offers no control premium to Gold Fields` shareholders;

2) Harmony`s management model, the so-called "Harmony Way", is flawed and unsuited for the challenges presented by Gold Fields` complex, long-life and deep level South African mining operations;

3) Harmony does not have the vision, management depth, or skills and capabilities to manage a global mining company, as they have effectively demonstrated through their poor track record of international expansion over the past decade;

4) Harmony`s financial position is increasingly troubled, as is evidenced by its interest costs exceeding the cash flow generated by its operations. The Gold Fields Board believes that this is seriously impairing Harmony`s balance sheet and will threaten the viability of any combined entity. At the current rand gold price nearly half of Harmony`s production is making operating losses;

5) Despite Harmony`s aggressive marketing and reporting practices its business model has failed both in South Africa and internationally. The latest Harmony assertion that CONOPS is the panacea that will save Harmony, is now being exposed with the breakdown over the Christmas period of CONOPS at the Free State operations, potentially resulting in significant lost production; and

6) An independent Gold Fields offers shareholders a solid and transparent investment vehicle with more exciting growth prospects than the combination proposed by Harmony.

The Board recommends that Gold Fields` shareholders and ADR holders should continue to reject the Harmony offer, should not tender their shares or ADRs, and should continue to reap the benefits of a well managed, performance focussed, internationally diversified South African champion - Gold Fields.

Possible Alternative Transactions

Following the discussions held in Moscow late in December 2004, Gold Fields and Harmony have agreed to engage in discussions with a view to exploring possible alternative transactions to the current Harmony offer. At this stage no viable alternatives have been identified.

Ian Cockerill, Chief Executive Officer of Gold Fields, said,

"Gold Fields will, in good faith and in the interests of its shareholders, continue to engage in the discussions with Harmony while, simultaneously, pursuing a number of parallel yet independent initiatives to create value enhancing options for all shareholders."

"To be acceptable any alternative transaction with Harmony will have to be executed at fair value; carried out on the basis of full due diligence; and deal with Harmony`s loss making and marginal assets and impaired balance sheet".

"Shareholders are cautioned that discussions with Harmony are at an early stage and are exploratory in nature. There can be no assurance that a mutually acceptable alternative transaction will be found".

"While this process is underway I urge shareholders to continue to reject Harmony`s derisory offer as it significantly undervalues Gold Fields."

In the United States, Gold Fields Limited ("Gold Fields") has filed a Solicitation/Recommendation Statement with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the "SEC") on Schedule 14D-9 and holders of the Gold Fields Ordinary Shares and American Depositary Shares are advised to read it as it contains important information. Copies of the Schedule 14D-9 and other related documents filed by Gold Fields are available free of charge on the SEC`s website at http://www.sec.gov/. Any documents filed by Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited, including any registration statement on Form F-4 (including any prospectus contained therein) and related exchange offer materials as well as its Tender Offer Statement on Schedule TO, will also be available free of charge on the SEC`s website.

The directors of Gold Fields accept responsibility for the information contained in this document. To the best of their knowledge and belief (having taken all reasonable care to ensure that such is the case) the information contained in this document is in accordance with the facts and does not omit anything likely to affect the import of such information.

Copies of this document are not being made available, and must not be mailed, forwarded, transmitted or otherwise distributed or sent in or into Australia, Canada, Japan, the Republic of Ireland or any other jurisdiction in which it is illegal to make this document available and persons receiving this document (including custodians, nominees and trustees) must not distribute, forward, mail, transmit or send it in or into or from Australia, Canada, Japan, the Republic of Ireland or any such other jurisdiction.

This document contains "forward-looking statements" with respect to Gold Fields` financial condition, results of operations, business strategies, operating efficiencies, competitive position, growth opportunities for existing services, plans and objectives of management, markets for stock and other matters. Statements in this document that are not historical facts are "forward-looking statements".

These forward-looking statements, including, among others, those relating to the future business prospects, revenues and income of Gold Fields, wherever they may occur in this presentation, are necessarily estimates reflecting the best judgment of the senior management of Gold Fields and involve a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those suggested by the forward-looking statements. As a consequence, these forward-looking statements should be considered in light of various important factors, including those set forth materials filed with or furnished to the SEC from time to time, including Gold Fields` most recent Annual Report on Form 20-F.

Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from estimates or projections contained in the forward-looking statements include, without limitation: overall economic and business conditions in South Africa, Ghana, Australia and elsewhere; the ability to achieve anticipated efficiencies and other cost savings in connection with past and future acquisitions; the success of exploration and development activities; decreases in the market price of gold; the occurrence of hazards associated with underground and surface gold mining; the occurrence of labor disruptions; availability, terms and deployment of capital; changes in relevant government regulations, particularly environmental regulations and potential new legislation affecting mining and mineral rights; fluctuations in exchange rates, currency devaluations and other macroeconomic monetary policies; and political instability in South Africa, Ghana and regionally.

Gold Fields undertakes no obligation to update publicly or release any revisions to these forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances after the date of this document or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events.

Information included in this document relating to Harmony and its business has been derived solely from publicly available sources. While Gold Fields has included information in this document regarding Harmony that is known to Gold Fields based on publicly available information, Gold Fields has not had access to non-public information regarding Harmony and could not use such information for the purpose of preparing this document. Although Gold Fields is not aware of anything that would indicate that statements relating to Harmony contained in this document are inaccurate or incomplete, Gold Fields is not in a position to verify information concerning Harmony. Gold Fields and its directors and officers are not aware of any errors in such information. Subject to the foregoing and to the maximum extent permitted by law, Gold Fields and its directors and officers disclaim all liability for information concerning Harmony included in this document.

Gold Fields Limited

[mctobi]

ist doch klar, dass Gold Fields das Angebot ablehnt, wenn Cockerill seinen Stuhl räumen muss.

Gold Fields wird jedoch daran nicht vorbeikommen, harmony besitzt bereits ca. 30% der aktien und kann genügend Druck machen.

Immerhin besteht die Möglichkeit einen neuen Weltmarktführer zusammenzubauchen, der nur etwa 1/3 der Newmont kostet, aber viel größere Reserven besitzt, und irgendwann einmal muß! der Rand runter !!!!

Deshalb íst Harmony auf diesem Niveau absolut kaufenswert !!

gruss
tobi

[G.Goldmann]

Irgendwann wird endgültig Klarheit sein...

January 12, 2005
Johannesburg - The Competition Commission will make its recommendations on the merger between Gold Fields and Harmony by the end of the month.

In a statement released on Wednesday, the Competition Commission said it found the filing made by Gold Fields compliant and it had fulfilled its merger notification requirements.

It said it would make its recommendations to the Competition Tribunal, which would then make a decision on whether to allow the merger by January 26.

The commission would make a statement on the merger once it had finalised its recommendations to the Competition Tribunal. - Sapa

G. Goldmann