Rockhopper Exploration ehemals FALKLAND OIL & GAS +++ 270% mit Öl (Seite 250)
eröffnet am 03.12.04 12:00:47 von
neuester Beitrag 04.04.24 11:58:50 von
neuester Beitrag 04.04.24 11:58:50 von
Beiträge: 4.506
ID: 932.322
ID: 932.322
Aufrufe heute: 3
Gesamt: 538.500
Gesamt: 538.500
Aktive User: 0
ISIN: GB00B0FVQX23 · WKN: A0F6YF · Symbol: R4Y
0,1710
EUR
-0,58 %
-0,0010 EUR
Letzter Kurs 14.06.24 Tradegate
Werte aus der Branche Öl/Gas
| Wertpapier | Kurs | Perf. % |
|---|---|---|
| 0,540 | +20,00 | |
| 25,00 | +19,05 | |
| 1,120 | +17,89 | |
| 1,650 | +14,58 | |
| 15,000 | +12,78 |
| Wertpapier | Kurs | Perf. % |
|---|---|---|
| 27,20 | -9,21 | |
| 4,2918 | -10,59 | |
| 0,9554 | -10,71 | |
| 0,7015 | -12,44 | |
| 5,4870 | -16,36 |
Beitrag zu dieser Diskussion schreiben
Feedback
A crude yardstick
Created:
18 March 2008
Written by:
Daniel O'Sullivan
It's not easy to put a conventional valuation on the Falklands prospectors, such as a multiple of forecast earnings or net present value, because they are at such an early stage. Indeed, between them they're yet to even sink a well. However, a 'quick and dirty' method of assessing valuation is to divide enterprise value (EV- market cap plus debt minus cash) by a so-called 'P50' estimate of the number of barrels of oil that could potentially gush out from their prospects. This tells investors what value is being put on each notional barrel of oil that an explorer may eventually produce.
Advertising
For each of the three companies with published P50 estimates the value being put on a notional barrel is just pennies (see table). On first sight, that looks measly when a real barrel of the black stuff fetches $100 plus. However, this massive discount is justified because these companies still have everything to prove in terms of turning the sub-surface structures they claim to have identified into actual oil reservoirs capable of commercial production. Moreover, there is also capital expenditure to consider.
Nevertheless, our crude yardstick shows the market rates of Desire Petroleum's prospects as between three and six times more valuable than those of either Falklands Oil & Gas or Rockhopper. The range of valuations attributed to Desire's notional barrels reflects the possibility that it's farm-in partner could take a share of anything between 0 and 50 per cent of future production. In exchange for handing over a slice of production to a farm-in partner, explorers benefit by sharing drilling risk. In the case of Falklands Oil & Gas, our EV/mboe calculation uses just 49 per cent of the 12bn barrels notionally recoverable from its prime drilling targets because BHP Billiton has a 51 per cent stake.
Ratings divergence in the sector could be down to whether a company is operating in the shallower, cheaper-to-drill North Basin or the deeper, costlier-to-drill and more storm-tossed South Basin, as well as whether the company is fully-funded and has a farm-in partner on board. Desire ticks the right boxes on all three fronts, but does this justify such a wide discount for the other players? Rockhopper is as likely to benefit as Desire from the latter securing a rig, although it has yet to structure a farm-out. Falklands Oil & Gas, however, looks a bargain, as little credit seems to be given to its operational experience, financial fire-power and the considerable weight in rig negotiations brought by partner BHP Billiton.
UK-quoted Falkland Island oil plays
Company Ticker Price (p) 13/03/08 Price gain YTD % North/South basin Farm-in Worked-up prospects Total "P50" estimated recoverable oil (mboe) EV/attributable P50mboe (£) Funded for drilling
Borders & Southern BOR 55.5 95 South No Not stated Not stated - No
Falklands Oil & Gas FOGL 135 4 South Yes, BHP Billiton 51% 10 12,045 0.02 No
Desire Petroleum DES 73.25 193 North Yes, details undisclosed 10 2,300 0.06 / 0.12 Yes
Rockhopper Exploration RKH 84 68 North No 28 3,694 0.02 No
http://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/MarketsAndSectors/Sector…
Created:
18 March 2008
Written by:
Daniel O'Sullivan
It's not easy to put a conventional valuation on the Falklands prospectors, such as a multiple of forecast earnings or net present value, because they are at such an early stage. Indeed, between them they're yet to even sink a well. However, a 'quick and dirty' method of assessing valuation is to divide enterprise value (EV- market cap plus debt minus cash) by a so-called 'P50' estimate of the number of barrels of oil that could potentially gush out from their prospects. This tells investors what value is being put on each notional barrel of oil that an explorer may eventually produce.
Advertising
For each of the three companies with published P50 estimates the value being put on a notional barrel is just pennies (see table). On first sight, that looks measly when a real barrel of the black stuff fetches $100 plus. However, this massive discount is justified because these companies still have everything to prove in terms of turning the sub-surface structures they claim to have identified into actual oil reservoirs capable of commercial production. Moreover, there is also capital expenditure to consider.
Nevertheless, our crude yardstick shows the market rates of Desire Petroleum's prospects as between three and six times more valuable than those of either Falklands Oil & Gas or Rockhopper. The range of valuations attributed to Desire's notional barrels reflects the possibility that it's farm-in partner could take a share of anything between 0 and 50 per cent of future production. In exchange for handing over a slice of production to a farm-in partner, explorers benefit by sharing drilling risk. In the case of Falklands Oil & Gas, our EV/mboe calculation uses just 49 per cent of the 12bn barrels notionally recoverable from its prime drilling targets because BHP Billiton has a 51 per cent stake.
Ratings divergence in the sector could be down to whether a company is operating in the shallower, cheaper-to-drill North Basin or the deeper, costlier-to-drill and more storm-tossed South Basin, as well as whether the company is fully-funded and has a farm-in partner on board. Desire ticks the right boxes on all three fronts, but does this justify such a wide discount for the other players? Rockhopper is as likely to benefit as Desire from the latter securing a rig, although it has yet to structure a farm-out. Falklands Oil & Gas, however, looks a bargain, as little credit seems to be given to its operational experience, financial fire-power and the considerable weight in rig negotiations brought by partner BHP Billiton.
UK-quoted Falkland Island oil plays
Company Ticker Price (p) 13/03/08 Price gain YTD % North/South basin Farm-in Worked-up prospects Total "P50" estimated recoverable oil (mboe) EV/attributable P50mboe (£) Funded for drilling
Borders & Southern BOR 55.5 95 South No Not stated Not stated - No
Falklands Oil & Gas FOGL 135 4 South Yes, BHP Billiton 51% 10 12,045 0.02 No
Desire Petroleum DES 73.25 193 North Yes, details undisclosed 10 2,300 0.06 / 0.12 Yes
Rockhopper Exploration RKH 84 68 North No 28 3,694 0.02 No
http://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/MarketsAndSectors/Sector…
Rigging the Falklands oil race
Created:
18 March 2008
Written by:
Daniel O'Sullivan
Shares in Aim-quoted Desire Petroleum took off recently on news that it has recruited a farm-in partner to help fund the considerable cost of mobilising a drilling rig to explore three oil prospects offshore of the Falkland Islands. Shares in fellow Falklands explorers Rockhopper Exploration and Borders & Southern Petroleum also rose strongly, on hopes that all will benefit from having a rig in the remote South Atlantic region. But the reality is not that simple.
Advertising
Desire has not yet named its partner. Non-executive director Stephen Phipps says this will follow Falkland Islands government approval of the deal, and he will not confirm market gossip that the incomer is privately-held London-based oil trading company Arcadia Petroleum. If Arcadia is the partner, its shared ownership with offshore drilling specialist Seadrill may have sealed the deal. Rig rig mobilisation is the major hurdle facing any company exploring offshore of the Falklands.
That's because any drilling operator diverting a rig to the islands would require considerable recompense due to time lost on the long voyage south when the rig could otherwise be earning money for its owner drilling prospects closer to home. And current sky-high rig rates due to a shortage of kit and frenetic drilling activity make the costs even greater. So pooling drilling requirements to create an economically-viable drilling campaign is seen as the solution. Desire did nothing to dispel this impression with a press release noting that "there is now the potential to hire a rig for a minimum six-well drilling programme, thus defraying mobilisation costs for all parties". Desire's £20m cash gives it sufficient funding for for two wells, its new partner is prepared to fund two wells, and in addition there are the two wells that Australian natural resources behemoth BHP Billiton contracted to fund when it agreed to partner Aim-quoted Falklands Oil & Gas (FOGL) last year.
It all sounds good on paper, and indeed all the Falklands explorers named above say they are prepared to work together on rig-sharing if the eventuality arises. That is a big if, however, with FOGL looking the likeliest party pooper. While rig-sharing with Falklands peers is likely, should BHP secure a unit for any meaningful length of time, Tim Bushell, chief executive of FOGL, says such a contract is only one possibility.
Another possibility being considered in earnest by BHP is snagging a rig for just the briefest of stopovers en route from an already-scheduled location changeover between West Africa and Brazil, or vice versa. Such a deal would only be possible due to BHP's heavyweight contacts, negotiating strength and cash-rich persuasiveness. The resultant window would allow no more than a couple of wells to be drilled just for BHP/FOGL, with other operators seeing no benefit.
Mr Phipps admits BHP/FOGL might well go it alone. "I don't think that they need us as much as we would rather need them!" he says. But both he and Rockhopper managing director Sam Moody point out that it might yet be BHP/FOGL left out in the cold rig-wise. Both Desire and Rockhopper are exploring in the basin to the north of the islands, which is shallower and calmer than the southern basin that BHP/FOGL and Borders & Southern are in. As such, the northern operators could get by with a lower-specification and cheaper rig - 'third generation' as opposed to 'fifth generation' semi-submersible. If they locate one of these on a viable contract, they will go ahead on their own.Whatever happens, all parties agree that offshore drilling should finally be underway by the beginning of 2009, if not earlier. This gives time for Borders & Southern to join the drilling party if a consortium solution emerges. Having just completed seismic surveys, chief executive Howard Obee says promising prospects should be identified by summer.
Should any of these companies actually strike oil, the share price uplift would be immense. Mr Bushell says if just one of his 10 worked-up prospects - selected from hundreds of promising leads - comes in as a 500m barrel discovery, then presuming a flat oil price of $50 per barrel, FOGL would be worth £10 per share.
Using the same oil price, Mr Moody believes that the net present value of a 100m barrel discovery on his licences is around $1bn. Splitting that £500m-equivalent among Rockhopper shareholders equals some £6.60 per share, although, by the time of drilling its share may have been diluted through a farm-in. It looks like there are some very exciting times ahead for this band of oil-exploration companies.
http://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/MarketsAndSectors/Sector…
Created:
18 March 2008
Written by:
Daniel O'Sullivan
Shares in Aim-quoted Desire Petroleum took off recently on news that it has recruited a farm-in partner to help fund the considerable cost of mobilising a drilling rig to explore three oil prospects offshore of the Falkland Islands. Shares in fellow Falklands explorers Rockhopper Exploration and Borders & Southern Petroleum also rose strongly, on hopes that all will benefit from having a rig in the remote South Atlantic region. But the reality is not that simple.
Advertising
Desire has not yet named its partner. Non-executive director Stephen Phipps says this will follow Falkland Islands government approval of the deal, and he will not confirm market gossip that the incomer is privately-held London-based oil trading company Arcadia Petroleum. If Arcadia is the partner, its shared ownership with offshore drilling specialist Seadrill may have sealed the deal. Rig rig mobilisation is the major hurdle facing any company exploring offshore of the Falklands.
That's because any drilling operator diverting a rig to the islands would require considerable recompense due to time lost on the long voyage south when the rig could otherwise be earning money for its owner drilling prospects closer to home. And current sky-high rig rates due to a shortage of kit and frenetic drilling activity make the costs even greater. So pooling drilling requirements to create an economically-viable drilling campaign is seen as the solution. Desire did nothing to dispel this impression with a press release noting that "there is now the potential to hire a rig for a minimum six-well drilling programme, thus defraying mobilisation costs for all parties". Desire's £20m cash gives it sufficient funding for for two wells, its new partner is prepared to fund two wells, and in addition there are the two wells that Australian natural resources behemoth BHP Billiton contracted to fund when it agreed to partner Aim-quoted Falklands Oil & Gas (FOGL) last year.
It all sounds good on paper, and indeed all the Falklands explorers named above say they are prepared to work together on rig-sharing if the eventuality arises. That is a big if, however, with FOGL looking the likeliest party pooper. While rig-sharing with Falklands peers is likely, should BHP secure a unit for any meaningful length of time, Tim Bushell, chief executive of FOGL, says such a contract is only one possibility.
Another possibility being considered in earnest by BHP is snagging a rig for just the briefest of stopovers en route from an already-scheduled location changeover between West Africa and Brazil, or vice versa. Such a deal would only be possible due to BHP's heavyweight contacts, negotiating strength and cash-rich persuasiveness. The resultant window would allow no more than a couple of wells to be drilled just for BHP/FOGL, with other operators seeing no benefit.
Mr Phipps admits BHP/FOGL might well go it alone. "I don't think that they need us as much as we would rather need them!" he says. But both he and Rockhopper managing director Sam Moody point out that it might yet be BHP/FOGL left out in the cold rig-wise. Both Desire and Rockhopper are exploring in the basin to the north of the islands, which is shallower and calmer than the southern basin that BHP/FOGL and Borders & Southern are in. As such, the northern operators could get by with a lower-specification and cheaper rig - 'third generation' as opposed to 'fifth generation' semi-submersible. If they locate one of these on a viable contract, they will go ahead on their own.Whatever happens, all parties agree that offshore drilling should finally be underway by the beginning of 2009, if not earlier. This gives time for Borders & Southern to join the drilling party if a consortium solution emerges. Having just completed seismic surveys, chief executive Howard Obee says promising prospects should be identified by summer.
Should any of these companies actually strike oil, the share price uplift would be immense. Mr Bushell says if just one of his 10 worked-up prospects - selected from hundreds of promising leads - comes in as a 500m barrel discovery, then presuming a flat oil price of $50 per barrel, FOGL would be worth £10 per share.
Using the same oil price, Mr Moody believes that the net present value of a 100m barrel discovery on his licences is around $1bn. Splitting that £500m-equivalent among Rockhopper shareholders equals some £6.60 per share, although, by the time of drilling its share may have been diluted through a farm-in. It looks like there are some very exciting times ahead for this band of oil-exploration companies.http://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/MarketsAndSectors/Sector…
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.630.793 von Hafturlaub am 13.03.08 14:46:17Ich rate Neulingen, hier im Thread einige bzw. viele Seiten zurückzublättern, weil da schon alle wichtigen Punkte diskutiert wurden.
Immerhin wird hier auf hohem Niveau diskutiert und es gibt keine Basher (ist auch kein Wunder bei dieser Superchance).
Immerhin wird hier auf hohem Niveau diskutiert und es gibt keine Basher (ist auch kein Wunder bei dieser Superchance).
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.630.457 von value_seeker am 13.03.08 14:16:12Es kommt noch hinzu, daß FOGL nur 32 % der Kosten zahlen muß.
Auch ist bei den offiziellen Schätzungen der Größe eines Ölfeldes grundsätzlich schon nur der förderbare (recoverable) Anteil enthalten.
Auch ist bei den offiziellen Schätzungen der Größe eines Ölfeldes grundsätzlich schon nur der förderbare (recoverable) Anteil enthalten.
Trading Spotlight
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.630.457 von value_seeker am 13.03.08 14:16:12Danke, kann man davon ausgehen, dass diese 10$, bei aktuellen Preisen wohl eher 20$, in einem Rutsch fliessen und nicht über die Laufzeit der Förderung verteilt? Ist jemanden ein Explorer bekann, der diesen Weg bereits hinter sich hat?
In einer Studie von 2006 ist bei einem Ölpreis von 38$ der Wert eines nachgewiesenen Barrels bei FOGL mit 4$ angesetzt.
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.630.250 von Hafturlaub am 13.03.08 13:59:23In aller Kürze und mit Pi mal Daumenwerten hier mal der Rechengang: 1 Mrd. Barrel * 10 USD/Barrel / 100 Mio. Aktien * 0,49 (=unser Anteil) / 1,56 (Wechselkurs USD) = ca. 30 Euro/Aktie
In den o.a. 10 USD/Barrel ist bereits berücksichtigt, dass nur ein Teil des Öls tatsächlich an die Oberfläche gefördert werden kann (grober Eckwert 1/3). Dies ist also nur der Wert, den ein Dritter bereit ist zu zahlen, um sich dann selbst ans Fördern zu machen. Der trägt dann auch die Förder-kosten. Als FOGL-Aktionär müssen einen also zunächst mal nur die z.B. 10 USD/Barrel interessieren. Desire hat m.W. auch schon offen kommuniziert, dass sie nie selbst fördern wollen, sondern die Funde meistbietend "die Suppe" abgeben werden.
value_seeker
In den o.a. 10 USD/Barrel ist bereits berücksichtigt, dass nur ein Teil des Öls tatsächlich an die Oberfläche gefördert werden kann (grober Eckwert 1/3). Dies ist also nur der Wert, den ein Dritter bereit ist zu zahlen, um sich dann selbst ans Fördern zu machen. Der trägt dann auch die Förder-kosten. Als FOGL-Aktionär müssen einen also zunächst mal nur die z.B. 10 USD/Barrel interessieren. Desire hat m.W. auch schon offen kommuniziert, dass sie nie selbst fördern wollen, sondern die Funde meistbietend "die Suppe" abgeben werden.
value_seeker
Danke für die Antworten, es ist meine erste Ölaktie, deswegen noch ein paar Fragen in die Runde.
Wie läuft es bei Ölexplorern in der Regel ab, wird selber gefördert oder die Rechte an der Suppe verkauft? Wie sind diese 8$/Barrel "Wert" zu verstehen? Förderung abzüglich Kosten, Cash bei Verkauf von Rechten?
@value_seeker
Du schreibst von 30€ Kurswert/pro Mrd. Barrel, wie ist da dein Rechenweg?
Wie läuft es bei Ölexplorern in der Regel ab, wird selber gefördert oder die Rechte an der Suppe verkauft? Wie sind diese 8$/Barrel "Wert" zu verstehen? Förderung abzüglich Kosten, Cash bei Verkauf von Rechten?
@value_seeker
Du schreibst von 30€ Kurswert/pro Mrd. Barrel, wie ist da dein Rechenweg?
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.623.525 von Hafturlaub am 12.03.08 19:06:39Ohne die Quellen zu erinnern: Bei einem Ölpreis von 40-50 Dollar wurde früher mit einem wirtschaftlichen Betrieb gerechnet.
Die massiv gestiegenen Preise für Bohrinseln dürfte das etwas beeinträchtigen, aber als Hausnummer passt das.
Die massiv gestiegenen Preise für Bohrinseln dürfte das etwas beeinträchtigen, aber als Hausnummer passt das.
Durchsuchen
