Rockhopper Exploration ehemals FALKLAND OIL & GAS +++ 270% mit Öl (Seite 251)

[SupermarioWin]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.623.913 von value_seeker am 12.03.08 19:42:17

Wobei ich zugeben muss, ich wäre mit dem grössten Teil meiner Stücke bei 30 € sofort Brief

Aber Du hast schon recht; seltsam, dass die Aktie so wenig Beachtung findet- auf der anderen Seite wurde wertloses Papier wie debeira, russoil etc. teurer gehandelt als die Aussicht auf einen echten Knaller...

Soll auch mir Recht sein....

[value_seeker]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.623.525 von Hafturlaub am 12.03.08 19:06:39

FOGl sprach im Mai 2006 von "robust economics" und bezifferte den Wert (und darum geht es) z.B. eines 500 Mio. Barrelfunds auf 4 Mrd. USD, d.h. 8 USD/Barrel. Inzwischen werden mit dem stark gestiegenen Ölpreis aber höhere Werte aufgerufen. Ferner steht in dem heutigen Dokument erneut, dass die Wirtschaftlichkeit selbst kleinerer Funde sehr robust ist: "...even moderate sized discoveries would be commercially viable, even at oil prices substantially less than today´s market prices."

value_seeker

[Hafturlaub]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.622.887 von value_seeker am 12.03.08 18:15:44

gibt es denn Schätzungen, wie hoch die Förderkosten/Barrel wären, falls man denn was findet?

[value_seeker]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.622.329 von al_sting am 12.03.08 17:30:23

Ich bin nach wie vor zutiefst erstaunt, dass FOGL so wenig Aufmerksamkeit auf sich zieht. Selbst einfachste Rechenexempel verdeutlichen das extreme Kurspotenzial des Papiers. Heute wurde ja nochmals die die Zahl von 10 Mrd. Barrel bestätigt, und dies nur in den top prospects. Überschlägig bedeutet jedes Mrd. Barrel einen Kurswert von 30 (!) Euro je Aktie. In den Präsentationen sind auch Potenziale von 40 und mehr Mrd. Barrel kommuniziert worden. Was das dann bedeuten kann, muss man sich auf der Zunge zergehen lassen, das wäre nämlich dann so ungefähr das 600fache des heutigen Kurses. Mir ist derzeit jedenfalls keine interessantere Aktie bekannt. Na, mir soll die Mißachtung des Papiers recht sein, dann kann ich schön fleißig weitersammeln...

value_seeker

[al_sting]

RNS Number:9625P
Falkland Islands Holdings PLC, 12 March 2008

Falkland Oil and Gas Limited Preliminary Results

Falkland Islands Holdings plc ("FIH"), the international services Group which owns essential services businesses focused on transport and logistics and which has a 16.2% strategic shareholding in Falkland Oil and Gas ("FOGL"), notes the announcement issued today by FOGL, the full text of which is outlined below.

Falkland Oil and Gas Limited ("FOGL" or "the Company") Preliminary Results for the year ended 31 December 2007

FOGL, the oil and gas exploration company focused on its extensive licence areas to the South and East of the Falkland Islands, announces Preliminary Results for the year ended 31 December 2007.

The year 2007 has seen significant progress:
* Exploration activity further de-risks the project
- Over 750 kms of CSEM data were acquired over 12 prospects delivering encouraging results
- 9,950 kms of additional 2D seismic data were acquired allowing improved definition of the key prospects

* Positive results confirm the high potential of the project
- A short list has been produced of prospects which offer the lowest exploration risk but also could contain large potential hydrocarbon resource volumes
- FOGL's top ranked prospects have the potential to contain hydrocarbon resources in excess of 10 billion barrels oil equivalent (mean, un-risked)

* BHP Billiton farm-in deal adds credibility to the exploration assets and includes a commitment to drill a minimum of two exploration wells
- Following an extensive review of the exploration data, BHP Billiton acquired a 51% interest and operatorship of FOGL's licences
- BHP Billiton paid $12.75 million cash and will pay 68% of the costs of the first two wells in the drilling programme
- BHP Billiton has extensive deepwater drilling expertise

* FOGL is poised to participate in the first drilling campaign in the basin
- FOGL's licence areas are in the basins to the South and East of the Islands which, to date, have never been drilled

* FOGL is substantially funded through its share of this programme
- Cash balance of £12.5 million at year end

* Preparation work for drilling is in progress
- Enhanced processing and interpretation of CSEM results is nearing completion
- Work on key prospects is ongoing in readiness for drilling
- Site surveys are expected to be carried out in second half 2008
- BHP Billiton is currently reviewing a number of rig options

Tim Bushell, Chief Executive of FOGL, said:
"FOGL is now within touching distance of realising the potential of what is probably one of the most exciting high impact exploration projects currently being undertaken anywhere in the world.
"We have brought in a credible partner with the resources and experience to undertake the drilling programme. The rewards for success could be substantial given the large resource volumes of the prospects being targeted."

Chairman's Statement

Since FOGL embarked on its journey in 2004 it has undertaken a great deal of work to demonstrate the potential of the licence areas to hold very significant hydrocarbon resources.
The farm-out agreement signed with BHP Billiton in October 2007 was the culmination of this initial phase of work.
Under the terms of the farm-out agreement, BHP Billiton acquired a 51% interest in FOGL's entire exploration acreage and took over the operatorship. In return, BHP Billiton will pay four thirds of 51% (68%) of the costs of the near term work programme, including the drilling of two exploration wells and all other associated work to the completion of this drilling programme. In addition, BHP Billiton has paid FOGL US$12.75 million in relation to certain costs already
incurred by FOGL.
FOGL's cash balance at the year end was £12.5 million, following exploration expenditure during the year of £11 million. As a result, FOGL is funded through a significant proportion of the near term exploration programme.
The Company has retained a significant equity interest which provides the flexibility for a second farm-out deal to be considered. Since announcing the agreement with BHP Billiton, FOGL has been approached by a number of other parties potentially interested in farming in to the area. A second farminee could offer FOGL the possibility of funding additional exploration and/or appraisal wells. We will however, balance the benefits of another farm-out with the retention of sufficient equity in the licences to provide substantial benefits to shareholders from a successful drilling campaign.
FOGL is poised to enter the exploration drilling phase with a major interest in what may well be a significant new petroleum region in the South Atlantic.

Chief Executive's Review

Overview
Since 2004, £22 million has been invested in exploration activity by the Company to define and further de-risk the project. A significant proportion of that has now been recouped from BHP Billiton in a land mark deal for FOGL.
In the year under review, the Company undertook a CSEM survey and a 2D infill seismic survey. The results of both surveys were positive. Over 750kms of CSEM data were acquired along 7 lines, over a total of 12 prospects. 'Positive' CSEM anomalies, indicating the possible presence of trapped hydrocarbons, were recognised over a number of the best prospects. The most encouraging CSEM anomalies have been identified over seven prospects, which also benefit from
seismically-derived direct hydrocarbon indications. Each of these prospects could contain large amounts of oil and gas, of up to 3.5 billion barrels (mean unrisked recoverable resource).
The 2007 2D seismic survey acquired a total of 9,950km. The survey was designed to infill the existing seismic grid in order to better define known leads and prospects. The new data also led to the identification of a significant new lead located in quadrant 61. Other leads have been developed into substantial prospects.

Ongoing activity

The company has entered into a new phase of operations where future work, with BHP Billiton as operator, will lead into the drilling programme. The data from the CSEM survey will undergo enhanced processing and interpretation over the next few months to produce results which will be fully integrated with the existing data and with the recent 2D infill seismic.
Site surveys are expected to be carried out in the second half of 2008. BHP Billiton is currently reviewing a number of potential rig options and an update on this will be provided at a future point. If appropriate, discussions will be held with the other Falkland operators with respect to rig sharing.

Licence Terms

The Falkland Islands Government ("FIG") has consented to the assignment of a 51% licence interest to BHP Billiton and approved BHP Billiton as licence operator. Under the revised licence terms agreed by FIG, Phase 1 of the licences has been extended by 3 years to December 2010 and Phase 2 extended by 2 years to December
2015. In return FOGL and BHP Billiton have agreed to make a 50% relinquishment of Area B of the 2004 licences and a 25% relinquishment of Area A of the 2004 licences. However even after these surrenders, in the opinion of FOGL all the significant leads and prospects have been retained within the 2004 licence area.
No further relinquishment of the 2002 licences was required. The total retained area of the 2002 and 2004 licences comprises a significant 48,853 square kilometres, equivalent to over 220 UK North Sea blocks.

Financials

FOGL started the year with £14.9 million in cash, of which £11 million was invested in the exploration programme and £2 million was used to cover operating costs. At the end of the year, we received US$12.75 million (£6.4 million) from BHP Billiton under the terms of the farm-out agreement bringing the year end cash balance to £12.5 million.

Outlook

This project has been described as high-impact/high-risk by some commentators in the past. While it is clearly high-impact, we have worked hard to mitigate the risks.
As a result of our technical work and data gathering we believe that the exploration risk has been significantly reduced. Deep water, harsh weather and the remote location have all been cited as potential obstacles to success. However, the environment is very similar to West of Shetland, UK Northern North Sea and the Norwegian Sea. In all of these areas, oil and gas have been successfully discovered
and exploited and the drilling and production technologies that have made this possible are readily applicable to FOGL's prospects. Most of them lie in water-depths of 600 to 1500 metres; whereas recent wells in the Gulf of Mexico have been drilled in water-depths of up to 6000 metres. Furthermore, the wells will be conventional (i.e. they are not high temperature or high pressure). Whilst the North Falklands basin drilling campaign of 1998 was not a commercial
success, it demonstrated that offshore drilling operations could be effectively supported from a shorebase in the Falkland Islands.
Despite its perceived remoteness, the Falkland Islands is located between key oil and gas markets. It is well-positioned for North and South America, South Africa and Asia. Extensive development case modelling by FOGL based on the use of floating production, storage and offloading vessels ("FPSOs"), has been carried out using various sizes and types of discovery. FPSOs would be able to
operate effectively in the licence areas and oil would be exported by shuttle tankers. Using such a development concept, even moderate sized discoveries would be commercially viable, even at oil prices substantially less than today's market prices. The favourable fiscal terms offered by the Falkland Islands Government and the Islands' political stability further enhance the attractiveness of this area.
Exploration drilling is now expected to commence in 2009 and given the potential of the short-listed prospects, we believe that the chances of a commercially viable discovery have improved further.

[Urlaub2]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.606.819 von al_sting am 11.03.08 12:28:49

BHP Billiton hat laut rigzone aktuell 5 rigs in Betrieb.

Ich denke, daß FOGL deswegen nicht unbedingt das Problem hat, ein (wenn auch teures) Rig zu kriegen.

Wahrscheinlich ist der Bohrbeginn erst 2009, weil aufgrund der vielen Prospekte noch sehr viel Rechenzeit und Vorbereitungsarbeit nötig ist, um die 2 besten Bohrziele zu finden.

[Andrija]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.606.734 von al_sting am 11.03.08 12:21:22

Ich betrachte auch FIH immer noch als deutlich mehr als einen Tenbagger nur ohne die Optionsscheinproblematik. Ein Problem sehe ich - wie auf dem FIH-Thread beschrieben - auch in der Diversifikationsstrategie. Sehe trotzdem leider keine risikolose Alternative zu FIH. In FIH halte ich als Depotschwerpunkt und sehe bei einem durchschnitllichen Einkaufskurs von 4,- EUR das Risiko auch ohne Öl nach unten abgesichert. So, jetzt genug zu FIH im FOGL-Thread.
Übrigens ist mir beim letzten Kursanstieg aufgefallen, dass uns der starke EUR einen Großteil (rd. 10%) des Kursanstiegs vermasselt hat.

[al_sting]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.606.589 von Urlaub2 am 11.03.08 12:08:21

Vielen Dank für den Artikel!
Kannte ich noch nicht! Ich zitiere mal Ausschnitte daraus:

Wirtschaftsboom auf den Falklands:
"The capital, Stanley, is gearing up to become the Falklands' answer to the Klondike, with a redevelopment of its dockyard area and construction of 350 houses in the pipeline."

Abgabenquote:
"The Falklands' government will receive 26 per cent of the profits from companies ­drilling for oil, as well as nine per cent royalties on every barrel sold."

Argentinien:
"Meanwhile the Argentine government, which still claims the "Malvinas", as it calls the islands, and their oil fields as its own, is also looking jealously at the situation.
A spokesman said: "We reaffirm our backing for the legitimate rights of the Argentine Republic in the sovereignty dispute with Great Britain regarding the issue of the Malvinas.""

Ölvorkommen:
"It was estimated that the area might hold 60 billion barrels of oil - equivalent to the North Sea's estimated original reserves - all within the Falklands' "economic zone", which stretches 200 miles from its coastline."

Desire:
"Last month Desire Petroleum, one of the smaller operations, announced that it had linked up with a major, so far unidentified, company. It is planning to bring a floating rig to the Falklands to start drilling by the autumn. "

Chancen und Risiken:
"Dr Phil Richards, from the British Geological Survey, which has been advising the Falklands' government, sounded a note of caution, however. "There's no way of knowing how much oil is down there until drilling starts," he said. "It may be a total success or a total failure, or it could be somewhere in between.""

[al_sting]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.602.232 von Andrija am 10.03.08 21:06:04

Ich betrachte FOGL als eine Art Optionsschein mit hohem Risiko, aber auch hohem Gewinnpotential. Bei vollen Funden sollte es deutlich mehr als ein Tenbagger werden.

FIH hat ein niedrigeres Risiko, weil es eh ein solides Grundgeschäft auf den Falklands hat, dass auch ohne Öl weiterläuft.
Zudem wird derzeit die Geschäftsgrundlage in UK verbreitert. Ich hoffe, dass damit die Risiken reduziert werden sollen ohne die Chancen aus der Hand zu geben. Aber völlig überzeugt bin ich von der Diversifizierungsstrategie von FIH derzeit nicht. Das Wachstumspotential bei FIH ist im Falle von Ölfunden aber auch enorm, direkt (FOGL) als auch indirekt (Aufschwung der Inselwirtschaft).

Ich sehe in beiden Aktien gute Chancen. Ich halte aber nicht viel davon, die Risikien jetzt zu ignorieren und später, wenn sie augenscheinlich werden, die Aktien wegzuwerfen.
Das Chancen-Risiko-Profil macht es m.E. als Depotbeimischung extrem attraktiv, als Depotschwerpunkt aber fast schon unverantwortlich riskant.

Und da die Kurse nach längerer nachrichtenloser Zeit erfahrungsgemäß wieder deutlich bröckeln, würde ich bei Desire u.ä. jetzt eher abwarten.

[Urlaub2]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.553.257 von schlangenmeister am 05.03.08 09:26:00

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2008/03…

Ich stelle diesen interessanten Artikel aus dem FIH-Thread auch hier nochmal rein.

Neu ist mir, daß Desire jetzt schon im Herbst bohren will.
Genügend Geld haben sie ja.
Allerdings mißfällt mir der Fahnenstangenchart etwas.
Die Aktie ist im Vergleich zu FOGL eher etwas teuer.
Das ist wohl auch der Grund für den starken Anstieg bei FIH.