Frontline 20 % Dividendenrendite!? (Seite 576)
eröffnet am 09.02.05 13:10:29 von
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Interessant ist ja auch das Gerücht, wonach sich Venezuela (Präsident Chavez) stärker von den USA zurückziehen und die verstärkte Kooperation mit China sucht. Sollten sich hier die Ölhandelsströme von Südamerika nach Asien verstärken wird die größte Tankerflotte profitieren. Angeblich gibt es auch schon Gespräche zwischen Frontline und Venezuela. (Quelle Lloyds List)
über die Frachtraten..
Forward-market mist for tankers
3 June 2005
Tradewinds
No one seems to be certain where the tanker market is currently heading.
Sentiment has always been a huge factor in the tanker market, or as a Greek owner, clutching his hand to heart, once put it to an impressionable shipping reporter: "It`s something you feel just here."
Today, he might as well have been pointing to his wallet. Owners are somewhat uncharacteristically sitting on a huge pile of cash generated from the top rates their ships have been earning over the past few years. It creates a quite unique market make-up. Brokers speak of owners having a new-found confidence and being ready to hold out more against charterers.
But if the last two years of sky-high levels set that Greek owner`s pulse racing, has he felt a few warning twinges in his chest in the last month as levels have slipped, plunging returns below break-even, or is he dismissing it as just a bad case of indigestion?
Almost halfway through 2005, some are losing their shirts at the first hint of a reversal of fortunes, while others scream at them from the sidelines to have a bit more backbone. Rates crashed back into the $20,000 per-day range for VLCCs at the end of May, no fun for any owner but particularly heart-stopping if you recently shelled out $120m for your five-year old ship, almost twice the cost of your neighbour`s $65m vessel of a similar age.
It is a complex set of circumstances to read. Brokers say the tanker-supply situation is relatively tight-balanced. Tankers are continuing to roll out of the yards but market specialists point out that there is not the huge overhang there could be because prices remain high and berths are difficult to secure.
Newbuilding prices have shot up. In May, Clarkson`s SIN database pegged a VLCC at $129m, more than double the $63.5m the broker was quoting for the same vessel in 2002. It is a similar picture for other sizes, with suezmax newbuildings now priced at $78m, up from $43.8m in 2002, and aframaxes at $65m, as compared to $34.8m three years ago.
Berth capacity for 2008 deliveries in Korea and China is now limited, with Japan mainly concentrating on its domestic orders. And while owners would like to order, they are reluctant to commit so far ahead, particularly when the forward market is looking so bleary. Meanwhile, the secondhand market has proved similarly difficult to tap. This year, sale-and-purchase (S&P) brokers have reported a constant and large enquiry for all sizes of tanker. Modern VLCCs have been attracting $120m and suezmax sales close to the $69m were recorded during May. For the sellers there have been big bucks to be had. In April, Greek owner Tsakos Energy Navigation turned around an aframax newbuilding in Japan that it had bought in November as a resale for $60m. The owner pocketed a whopping $10.5m.
Rate falls traditionally allow owners to take stock on the S&P front, sniff the market air and decide where and when to make their next moves. But players say they might be in for a bit of a wait this time around unless the market can find some direction.
Down on the demolition beaches, the heady days of the last few years have taken their toll, with owners opting to trade rather than scrap. The drought has been too long for some and recently scrap prices have slid backwards, dropping under the magical but still incredibly healthy $400-per-ldt mark. Most commentators are griping loudly about the few remaining single-hull units spoiling the rate picture but brokers say it is likely to take some more serious hardship or other regulatory factors to send them scurrying to the breakers.
The world market is just as unclear. There is talk of slower-than-expected economic growth, strong supply from OPEC tempered by hints of cuts, unpredictable moves from growth-hungry China and the threat of instability from a variety of world trouble spots.
Add to the mix the spectre of high bunker prices and what do you get? No idea, some say.
Market guru and Clarkson head of research Martin Stopford said: "There are times when you know and times when you don`t. This is one when you don`t. The smart guy keeps his options open at the moment," he added.
Stopford says a straight economic interpretation of the current market fundamentals spells gloom. But strangely, and in contradiction to some of his highly vocal colleagues, he sees enough wildcards out there to be less sure of the doom scenario.
But someone has to make a call. Stopford again: "If forced to, I would go for the recession scenario. That is what comes out of the numbers. But as a gambling man, I might have a punt on there being a few more spikes out there."
Forward-market mist for tankers
3 June 2005
Tradewinds
No one seems to be certain where the tanker market is currently heading.
Sentiment has always been a huge factor in the tanker market, or as a Greek owner, clutching his hand to heart, once put it to an impressionable shipping reporter: "It`s something you feel just here."
Today, he might as well have been pointing to his wallet. Owners are somewhat uncharacteristically sitting on a huge pile of cash generated from the top rates their ships have been earning over the past few years. It creates a quite unique market make-up. Brokers speak of owners having a new-found confidence and being ready to hold out more against charterers.
But if the last two years of sky-high levels set that Greek owner`s pulse racing, has he felt a few warning twinges in his chest in the last month as levels have slipped, plunging returns below break-even, or is he dismissing it as just a bad case of indigestion?
Almost halfway through 2005, some are losing their shirts at the first hint of a reversal of fortunes, while others scream at them from the sidelines to have a bit more backbone. Rates crashed back into the $20,000 per-day range for VLCCs at the end of May, no fun for any owner but particularly heart-stopping if you recently shelled out $120m for your five-year old ship, almost twice the cost of your neighbour`s $65m vessel of a similar age.
It is a complex set of circumstances to read. Brokers say the tanker-supply situation is relatively tight-balanced. Tankers are continuing to roll out of the yards but market specialists point out that there is not the huge overhang there could be because prices remain high and berths are difficult to secure.
Newbuilding prices have shot up. In May, Clarkson`s SIN database pegged a VLCC at $129m, more than double the $63.5m the broker was quoting for the same vessel in 2002. It is a similar picture for other sizes, with suezmax newbuildings now priced at $78m, up from $43.8m in 2002, and aframaxes at $65m, as compared to $34.8m three years ago.
Berth capacity for 2008 deliveries in Korea and China is now limited, with Japan mainly concentrating on its domestic orders. And while owners would like to order, they are reluctant to commit so far ahead, particularly when the forward market is looking so bleary. Meanwhile, the secondhand market has proved similarly difficult to tap. This year, sale-and-purchase (S&P) brokers have reported a constant and large enquiry for all sizes of tanker. Modern VLCCs have been attracting $120m and suezmax sales close to the $69m were recorded during May. For the sellers there have been big bucks to be had. In April, Greek owner Tsakos Energy Navigation turned around an aframax newbuilding in Japan that it had bought in November as a resale for $60m. The owner pocketed a whopping $10.5m.
Rate falls traditionally allow owners to take stock on the S&P front, sniff the market air and decide where and when to make their next moves. But players say they might be in for a bit of a wait this time around unless the market can find some direction.
Down on the demolition beaches, the heady days of the last few years have taken their toll, with owners opting to trade rather than scrap. The drought has been too long for some and recently scrap prices have slid backwards, dropping under the magical but still incredibly healthy $400-per-ldt mark. Most commentators are griping loudly about the few remaining single-hull units spoiling the rate picture but brokers say it is likely to take some more serious hardship or other regulatory factors to send them scurrying to the breakers.
The world market is just as unclear. There is talk of slower-than-expected economic growth, strong supply from OPEC tempered by hints of cuts, unpredictable moves from growth-hungry China and the threat of instability from a variety of world trouble spots.
Add to the mix the spectre of high bunker prices and what do you get? No idea, some say.
Market guru and Clarkson head of research Martin Stopford said: "There are times when you know and times when you don`t. This is one when you don`t. The smart guy keeps his options open at the moment," he added.
Stopford says a straight economic interpretation of the current market fundamentals spells gloom. But strangely, and in contradiction to some of his highly vocal colleagues, he sees enough wildcards out there to be less sure of the doom scenario.
But someone has to make a call. Stopford again: "If forced to, I would go for the recession scenario. That is what comes out of the numbers. But as a gambling man, I might have a punt on there being a few more spikes out there."
interessant..
Frontline may have lost patience, not interest
3 June 2005
Tradewinds
Has Frontline lost patience with acquisition target General Maritime (Genmar) of New York? Probably, judging from negative comments flowing from Frontline officials this week.
Has it lost interest? That may be a separate question entirely.
One observer weighing in on the subject is equity analyst Banc of America (BOA), which writes more generally about Frontline in a research note this week.
BOA and lead analyst Daniel Barcelo concede that Frontline has expressed decreasing interest in a deal and that Genmar management is unlikely to accept anything but a cash offer at prices Frontline is unwilling to pay.
"That said, we do not rule out the possibility that General Maritime shares will remain attractive to Frontline management, price allowing," BOA wrote.
The bank notes that despite a recent sell-off, Frontline maintains about a 3% stake in Genmar, "and could increase its share again at attractive equity levels". It added: "We countinue to see attractive synergies between the two companies and would not rule out a future re-evaluation of a deal between the two parties."
BOA`s comment comes only a day after Frontline complained of "negative response from Genmar`s management [that] has reduced our interest and forced Frontline to look for opportunities", while noting that "responsible" tanker companies should buck the trend toward fragmentation. Frontline also touted the appeal of "mega mergers".
One tanker industry source believes Frontline is still stalking Genmar but in a new mode. "They tried the touchy-feely phase and it didn`t work. I think they are all through with buying up some shares, selling some shares, etc," he said. "Their rhetoric toward Genmar was pretty harsh this week. They seem to be saying to Genmar shareholders, `see the opportunity you had and your management fumbled it. And, oh, by the way, how is your stock doing? Have you hit $70 yet?`"
In fact, Genmar shares closed at $41.50 as TradeWinds went to press - about $1 above their level in late January when Genmar announced it would begin paying out most of its free cash in a high-yield dividend. Frontline shares have done worse over the same period, falling about $2 to this week`s close of $42.25. While a cooling tanker market has held down tanker shares across the board during that period, analysts say the result is relatively more disappointing for Genmar, which has failed to get the boost some had envisioned out of its high-dividend plan.
"Frontline is a little bit like the girl who wooed the guy and got rejected," said one source. "She still wants him but now she`s going to be seen in public with another guy or two and see how he likes that."
Frontline may have lost patience, not interest
3 June 2005
Tradewinds
Has Frontline lost patience with acquisition target General Maritime (Genmar) of New York? Probably, judging from negative comments flowing from Frontline officials this week.
Has it lost interest? That may be a separate question entirely.
One observer weighing in on the subject is equity analyst Banc of America (BOA), which writes more generally about Frontline in a research note this week.
BOA and lead analyst Daniel Barcelo concede that Frontline has expressed decreasing interest in a deal and that Genmar management is unlikely to accept anything but a cash offer at prices Frontline is unwilling to pay.
"That said, we do not rule out the possibility that General Maritime shares will remain attractive to Frontline management, price allowing," BOA wrote.
The bank notes that despite a recent sell-off, Frontline maintains about a 3% stake in Genmar, "and could increase its share again at attractive equity levels". It added: "We countinue to see attractive synergies between the two companies and would not rule out a future re-evaluation of a deal between the two parties."
BOA`s comment comes only a day after Frontline complained of "negative response from Genmar`s management [that] has reduced our interest and forced Frontline to look for opportunities", while noting that "responsible" tanker companies should buck the trend toward fragmentation. Frontline also touted the appeal of "mega mergers".
One tanker industry source believes Frontline is still stalking Genmar but in a new mode. "They tried the touchy-feely phase and it didn`t work. I think they are all through with buying up some shares, selling some shares, etc," he said. "Their rhetoric toward Genmar was pretty harsh this week. They seem to be saying to Genmar shareholders, `see the opportunity you had and your management fumbled it. And, oh, by the way, how is your stock doing? Have you hit $70 yet?`"
In fact, Genmar shares closed at $41.50 as TradeWinds went to press - about $1 above their level in late January when Genmar announced it would begin paying out most of its free cash in a high-yield dividend. Frontline shares have done worse over the same period, falling about $2 to this week`s close of $42.25. While a cooling tanker market has held down tanker shares across the board during that period, analysts say the result is relatively more disappointing for Genmar, which has failed to get the boost some had envisioned out of its high-dividend plan.
"Frontline is a little bit like the girl who wooed the guy and got rejected," said one source. "She still wants him but now she`s going to be seen in public with another guy or two and see how he likes that."
bin mal gespannt wo der Kurs nach dem ex-Div Tag hingeht..
ich Tippe mal auf 38$
ich Tippe mal auf 38$
die 44$ sind genommen:
06/02/05 21:04:09 43.97 43.94 43.97 100
06/02/05 21:04:12 43.97 43.95 43.97 0
06/02/05 21:04:18 43.97 43.95 43.98 0
06/02/05 21:04:18 43.97 43.97 43.98 0
06/02/05 21:04:18 43.97 43.97 43.98 100
06/02/05 21:04:52 43.97 43.97 44.02 0
06/02/05 21:04:52 43.98 43.97 44.01 200
06/02/05 21:04:52 43.98 44.00 44.02 0
06/02/05 21:04:58 44.01 44.00 44.01 500
06/02/05 21:04:09 43.97 43.94 43.97 100
06/02/05 21:04:12 43.97 43.95 43.97 0
06/02/05 21:04:18 43.97 43.95 43.98 0
06/02/05 21:04:18 43.97 43.97 43.98 0
06/02/05 21:04:18 43.97 43.97 43.98 100
06/02/05 21:04:52 43.97 43.97 44.02 0
06/02/05 21:04:52 43.98 43.97 44.01 200
06/02/05 21:04:52 43.98 44.00 44.02 0
06/02/05 21:04:58 44.01 44.00 44.01 500
Trading Spotlight
Heute wieder dasselbe Spielchen um kurz nach 11 gehts aufwärts...
Herr Bratbecker
Record day ist der 10.06 -> dies ist der tag an dem deine aktien registriert sein müssen!
-> da es nachdem kauf bis zu 3 tage dauern kan,n bis dein broker alle formalitäten getätigt hat, bist du auf der sicheren seite, wenn du spätestens am 6.6 deine aktien kaufst
ich pers bin gestern eingestiegen
paul
Record day ist der 10.06 -> dies ist der tag an dem deine aktien registriert sein müssen!
-> da es nachdem kauf bis zu 3 tage dauern kan,n bis dein broker alle formalitäten getätigt hat, bist du auf der sicheren seite, wenn du spätestens am 6.6 deine aktien kaufst
ich pers bin gestern eingestiegen
paul
Auch von mir nochmal die Frage:
An welchem Tag muss man die Aktie halten, um an der Div.ausschüttung teilzuhaben?
Die Angaben hier widersprechen sich (vgl. #190 und #213), hat jemand gesicherte Infos darüber?
An welchem Tag muss man die Aktie halten, um an der Div.ausschüttung teilzuhaben?
Die Angaben hier widersprechen sich (vgl. #190 und #213), hat jemand gesicherte Infos darüber?
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