OT - We Are Not Out of the Woods Yet - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[investor_007]

We Are Not Out of the Woods Yet
By James J. Cramer

4/3/00 4:39 PM ET


Was this the capitulation low of the Nasdaq? That`s what many of you emailed me in the last few hours. I don`t see it that way. Supply is killing the NDX, not earnings (although Legato (LGTO: - news - boards) and Parametric (PMTC:Nasdaq - news - boards) gave you plenty of pause about that today).

Let me go over this dilemma very specifically. The stocks that trade on the New York Stock Exchange don`t have new supply coming out. In fact, they are probably going to be net buyers of their stocks at this juncture. In fact, I would imagine that ex-the biggest New York Stock Exchange offerings, there has been a huge shrinkage in supply.

The buybacks in the big-caps have been ferocious, as one company management after another is just plain sick of where its stock is.

On the Nasdaq, however, supply has become a moving target. It seems to grow daily. The underwritings, far from being cancelled, are growing. The Rule 144 insider filings are skyrocketing. The lockup expirations get greeted with avalanches of insider selling even at these levels.

At my core I am neither a chartist nor a fundamentalist. I am a psychologist of demand and supply. The Dow has no supply, the NDX has unlimited supply.

Hence the numbers you see on your screen. The direction of each changes only if the supply-and-demand equation changes.

(Many newbies ask me where I get these numbers. Supply numbers I get from the Fed. Demand numbers? I get those from my eyes and ears. I am a professional trader, trained to see this stuff. It is my edge. I try to write about my edge, but understand, it is what I do for a living, which is why it is expertise, not guesswork.)

You want to hear the following comments from your brokers right here: "We are pulling our offerings. The sellers don`t want to sell here."

Unfortunately, many of the companies in the queue wouldn`t exist without that possible cash infusion from the public. So they don`t cancel. That`s why it stays too heavy. That`s why we are not out of the woods

[investor_007]

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[investor_007]

Volatility sorting out the meek from mighty-Web execs


By Reshma Kapadia

NEW YORK, April 4 (Reuters) - The wild plunge in Nasdaq shares is sorting out the wheat from the chaff in the world of Internet and new
technology companies, executives from leading Internet and media firms said Tuesday at a media conference.

The Nasdaq <.IXIC> ended off 74.79 points at 4,148.89 after plunging as much as 574.47 points during the session.

"It was a bit overdue. In the end, the focus will be on sustainable business models, which will be good for the whole industry," said George Bell, chief
executive at Excite@Home <ATHM.O> at a panel discussion at the Schroders/Variety Big Picture media conference in New York.

The Internet executives on the panel said they expected a number of companies to emerge as survivors from any market correction although some of
them may be companies that do not yet exist.

Priceline.com Inc. <PCLN.O> founder Jay Walker said he expects to see many giant companies emerge as the Internet market evolves and endures
growing pains, with many players forming partnerships.

"We`ve all seen this show before," said DoubleClick Inc. <DCLK.O> Chief Executive Kevin O`Connor about the stock market`s tumultuous run.
"We know that the next great company gets heated up and people put money in it and then they realize it`s all overvalued. Then they shift out for 30
days and then go back in because the market`s fundamentals are good. I think the market has to be more differentiating."

The notion of well-funded, well-heeled partners for companies moving out of their infancy is catching on, said George Bell, chief executive of
ExciteAtHome Corp. <ATHM.O>

"Money is rotating out of the stocks of the hot, fast new economy into brick and mortars that are price-earnings based. As money moves back, it will
be more selective and (go into companies) that have long-term business models, strategy for survival and partnerships with deep pockets," said NBC
Internet Vice Chairman Chris Kitze.

The volatility within new economy issues is forcing investors to differentiate much more than in the last year when almost every new ".com" company
was eagerly sought after.

"Maybe this will raise the bar and keep companies that are more venture capital based from doing IPOs," O`Connor said.

"Investors are coming to grips with how much time they want to give these companies to demonstrate themselves," said Amazon.com Inc.
<AMZN.O> Chief Executive Jeffrey Bezos in the panel discussion.

He told Reuters after the discussion that the recent shake-out seen in some online retailers such as drkoop.com Inc. <KOOP.O>, CDNow Inc.
<CDNW.O> and Peapod Inc. <PPOD.O>, which have recently talked about financing concerns, demonstrates that investors are getting more
discriminating.

"And I think that is great for everyone," he added.

The Internet companies that are most likely to go the same way as the now extinct eight-track tapes are those replicating offline business on the
Internet without any changes and those with negative gross margins, the executive said.

They also voiced skepticism about the longevity of companies that do not implement the fact that the power is shifting toward consumers and that do
not acknowledge that the audience is content.

[investor_007]

Wall Street may have more spills ahead: strategists


By Ian Simpson

NEW YORK, April 4 (Reuters) - Wall Street`s panicky roller-coaster ride on Tuesday has so unnerved investors that battered technology shares
face a bumpy road before a firm rebound, leading stock strategists warned.

Peter Canelo, the U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley Dean Witter & Co. <MWD.N>, said the sector could take weeks or months before it
was poised to move steadily higher.

The technology group "will take us to May before we really start to settle down and look at things in a normal way," he told Reuters.

"This is not going to be back to the races" anytime soon, he said. "It doesn`t work that way."

Thomas Galvin, the chief investment officer at Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette <DLJ.N>, said markets could open higher on Wednesday in a relief
rally.

However, the market will stay on edge until it gets some good news in the upcoming earnings season, he said.

That could come as soon as after Wednesday`s market close, when Internet media network Yahoo! Inc. <YHOO.O> becomes the first high-profile
company to report quarterly earnings.

"I think the severity of the correction ... really spooked people," he said.

The technology-laden Nasdaq composite index <.IXIC> closed down 1.77 percent, or 74.79 points, at 4,148.89. At its worst level, the Nasdaq
dropped 574 points, or more than 13 percent, on the back of Monday`s 7 percent slide.

The blue-chip Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> ended off 57.09 points, or 0.51 percent, at 11,164.84. The Dow lost as much as 504 points, or
4.5 percent, as the sell-off that started in Nasdaq`s technology stocks spilled over to blue chips.

Canelo said a rebound in previously high-flying computer, Internet and telecommunications shares first had to get past the obstacle of traumatized
investors.

They will want to break even on at least some of their shares before they try to exit the market, he said. Their selling could lead the market to sputter
as it tries to rally.

"There is a brick wall above the market," Canelo said.

DLJ`s Galvin said that at the worst part of the meltdown he was poised to change his asset allocation of 80 percent stocks, 15 percent bonds and 5
percent cash. He held back.

The markets made "pretty clear that this was just emotion overwhelming common sense," he said.

In a statement, Merrill Lynch & Co. <MER.N>, the No. 1 U.S. brokerage, urged investors to look on the turmoil as a signal to diversify. It
recommended high-quality technology, basic industries and energy shares as well as high-grade corporate debt.

[investor_007]

The Bulls Move In for a Bear Kill
By James J. Cramer
4/6/00 2:42 PM ET

Sometimes military analogies work well for the stock market. This is one of those times. I sense a battle of encirclement -- the most dreaded and dangerous gambit in war -- developing among the mutual-fund bulls against the hedge-fund bears.

Here`s how the encirclement game gets played and why the stakes are so high when you spot the potential for one. Here`s why they were so dreaded on the Western front.

Most bears were in intense hibernation over the course of the last six months. No kidding. You may have heard of the "quick and the dead." This stock game was called "short and be dead."


Mind you, I am not talking about the professional short-selling bear; that species is almost as extinct as the panda. Heck, there are not even enough of them to mate.

I am talking about the hedge-fund hybrid bears, the ones who like to play both sides. They will stay long as long as the honey`s plentiful. They are Pooh-like. But the moment that the tape turns ugly, these ursas turn grizzly. They can`t help themselves. They short with reckless abandon.

This last downturn woke them out of hibernation. It startled them into the options pits where they took down huge numbers of puts on every index. They bought puts on individual stocks. They shorted outright. They went nuts. They were reckless. They coined money. They coined too much money.

And now it looks like they over-reached.

That`s where the encirclement campaign comes in. The bulls know the ways of the shorts. Especially the mutual-fund bulls. They can smell the shorts from miles away. They sensed that this downturn lured the bears out of safety in the wide open. The bulls hoarded the cash during the downturn and got a ton more in. No redemption song.

Now the bulls are working furiously to work their way around the bears. They are trying to put the bears into a cauldron, the hottest and most deadly of the encirclements. They bulls are going after the most heavily shorted big-cap tech names. Once they get their positions on, they will tighten the noose and bag the bears because the only way out for the bears, the only breakout possible, is to spread nasty rumors and hope they stick. Right now that seems to be failing.

We have seen these games of encirclement from time to time after big downturns. We have seen the trapped bulls fade away into oblivion, hapless, rifles surrendered, tanks smashed, after the noose has been tied.

We know that the big mutual funds love these encirclements, especially when the bears are trying to dig in their heels. We know they revel in these games.

We don`t know if they have the firepower this time. We don`t know how much cash they have. But we know they have the instinct to do this. And we know the bears are out on the plain, totally exposed, with their shorts still on, still hanging out, still being pressed.

Possible encirclement candidates, by the way, include large semiconductor companies and the networkers.

We will be watching.

[investor_007]

Recovery Effort Continues
By James J. Cramer

4/6/00 4:42 PM ET



Click here for the latest from James J. Cramer.



Another recovery day. The bad guys tried to spook them down and they couldn`t.

They tried to crack the Intels (INTC:Nasdaq - news - boards) and the Ciscos (CSCO:Nasdaq - news - boards), but that gambit seemed to fail.

Now we have a big number to get through tomorrow. I am not fearful of the employment number because a strong one never seems to get the tech bulls down. They revel in the S&P 500 decline and use it to build positions. It`s only us old guys that still relate interest-rate woes to the selling of all stocks. Only the pre-Net economy really seems to get hurt.


The encirclement action could happen tomorrow if there is no decline. The shorts didn`t have time to bring in their positions -- the bottom happened so fast -- that they are still lingering, still extended.

I can`t wait! I love a good battle.

[investor_007]

Why the Short-Term Picture Matters
By James J. Cramer

4/11/00 7:50 AM ET



Click here for the latest from James J. Cramer.



We don`t like beatings, even in the name of ultimate performance. We don`t like to buy stocks and be down 15 points on them from the get-go. We do, however, like to buy stocks and be up 15 points on them a few hours later. Ultimately, though, if it is a push, if we can be down or up 15 points, we don`t want to play at all.

That`s what happened yesterday. As someone who is responsible short-term and long-term for results, I can`t get involved if I know that I will lose so much money so fast. The essence of performance is maximizing risk with reward and if the risks are stepped up and the rewards opaque, I am not a player.

Many individuals with long-term horizons are probably saying to themselves, "So what? Where will it be months or years from now?" That`s right. That`s how you should look at it.

But remember, this column has a varied constituency of readers. Some are long-termers trying to understand the market. Others are mutual-fund buyers thinking of taking the plunge into individuals stocks. Still others are do-it-yourselfers who are trying to take control of their finances in a daily or weekly fashion. And finally, many of you are professionals, in the trenches with me, who want to know what I am doing and thinking.

Those who have been reading my series "Manifesto for a New Market" know that most of these risk-reward tenets apply to those who ply the trade professionally or full-time.

They do not apply to individuals who are traditional buy-and-holders. For them the game goes on unchanged, particularly those who use mutual funds to invest their assets.

Knowledge, however, makes even the buy-and-holder more cognizant of when to pounce, and often that is the difference between a good and a great investment.

Why is it so unclear near-term? Again I come back to supply and demand and the quality of the owners in this market. Last week`s decline was so swift that it only wiped out the most leveraged of players. (Witness the excellent story by David Faber about the hedge fund that almost lost it all because it was borrowing money and playing new tech.)


That decline only temporarily halted the supply of new merchandise. In fact, a couple of deals that were postponed were right back on track a few days later. It did nothing to tip the balance between supply and demand that has become so awful of late.

Why should we care about these short-term considerations? Because if you look at every big run this market has had over the years, it has come from a real washout -- where the market became extremely inhospitable to the primary and secondary sellers of equity (the companies and the individual investors in underwritings). Remember, that`s the true barometer of the market.

I had hope last week that we were seeing a change after the mini-crash where underwritings would be scratched and the lockup expirations would become less meaningful.

It didn`t happen.

That`s one of the reasons why the bears had a darn good time yesterday. Supply was right back in your face. When I was reading my ipoPros.com yesterday morning, I was struck by how nothing seemed to have changed at all by the tumultuous events of last week. There was that large deal calendar percolating along as if the greatest bull market of all time had received nothing but a glancing blow.

I think that`s way too glib and very worrisome. People are still heavily underwater from almost all of the secondaries of the recent quarter past. We are inundated with merchandise that we have no place to put. The Street, in the vernacular I was taught by my hedge-fund trading wife, is "very long" or "full-up" with all the merchandise recently pumped into it.

That merchandise must be marked down before it can be moved again if more merchandise is going to come into this store.

Hence the action you saw yesterday.

[investor_007]

Chartists see Nasdaq composite groping for bottom


By David Bailey

CHICAGO, April 12 (Reuters) - The Nasdaq composite stock index <.IXIC> dropped as much as 5 percent on Wednesday after more bad news
on some of its major technology components, but technical analysts say the index is groping for a bottom near term.

The closely watched index fell 5.0 percent, or 203.60 points, to a late-morning low of 3,852.30, down 25 percent from its intraday all-time high of
5,132.52 on March 10.

At 1:25 p.m. CDT (1825 GMT), the Nasdaq composite was at 3,885.04, down 4.2 percent or 170.86 points on the day.

Shares of Microsoft Corp. <MSFT.O> slid after an analyst with investment house Goldman Sachs cut his fiscal third-quarter revenue forecast for the
software giant. Compuware Corp. <CPWR.O> shares ebbed when the software maker warned that its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings would fall far
short of Wall Street forecasts.

"The market is groping for a bottom," said Paul Cherney, a Standard & Poor`s market analyst.

Share volume is expanding on intraday price advances, marking a subtle underlying change, though price declines are obviously outnumbering
advances, Cherney said.

Cherney said the index put in a tentative low from 3,864.00 to 3,854.00 Wednesday. If it breaks that area decisively, "I would not rule out a test of
what I call `last chance` support from 3,711.00 to 3,649.11," he added.

The latter level was the April 4 intraday low when the index fell as much as 575 points before whipping back.

On the day the index drops into that area of support from 3,711.00 to 3,649.11, if fewer than 280, and preferably fewer than 230, of the 5,000 or so
Nasdaq stocks hit new 52-week lows, the market should be within hours of making a bottom, Cherney said.

Volume would not need to approach the April 4 record of 2.79 billion shares, but would need to get to 1.9 billion to 2.0 billion to suggest that the
index is nearing or has reached a capitulation point that would bring in buyers, Cherney said.

Terence Gabriel, a technical analyst at IDEAglobal.com, said the Nasdaq composite was trying to establish a second low to turn back to the upside
from a short-term downtrend.

"So, looking forward two to four weeks I expect to see the composite higher, but the short-term trend is still down and trying to find some low,"
Gabriel said.

On Wednesday the index broke 3,880.00, roughly a 50 percent retracement of the 2,500 point rally from October to March, and the next support
may be at 3,649.11, Gabriel said.

A break of the 61.8 percent retracement of the rally at about 3,600.00 would open a risk toward the 200-day moving average near 3,490.00,
Gabriel added.

However, Gabriel said he did not expect the index to retrace the whole upmove from the October lows with the daily RSI quite oversold and the
weekly approaching oversold.

A move back above resistance at 4,200.00 and the 4,475.20 April 10 high would be a clear indication that the composite is out of the woods,
Gabriel said.

In the meantime, the volatility in the Nasdaq composite is likely to continue, Gabriel said. The index is running at about 5 percent volatility per session,
or roughly 200 points or more per day from the low to the high.

"There does not seem to be much appreciation for that degree of swing," Gabriel said. "Investors are being very much whipsawed by extreme
pessimism and extreme euphoria."

[investor_007]

Forget Hope -- Where`s the Beef?
By James J. Cramer

4/12/00 5:55 PM ET




Some of you have to stop "hoping."

The market doesn`t work like that. If we get good news from companies in tech, we could get a turn in tech, but we aren`t just going to go up in a vacuum. We are in a market where the last piece of news was a potential revenue shortfall from Microsoft (MSFT:Nasdaq - news - boards). This right on top of a bad miss by Motorola (MOT:NYSE - news - boards).

That one-two combo was a knock-out for many funds trying to play in old tech. Unless they were owners of the banks and the drugs and the foods -- highly unlikely if you look at the portfolios of tech funds everyday in IBD as I do -- they will be faced with lots of uncertainty until better data points arrive.


We are listening to Altera (ALTR:Nasdaq - news - boards) and AMD (AMD:NYSE - news - boards) and both are terrific. And Altera got double indemnity -- it was added to the S&P. But I don`t know if A&A can turn things around.

Believe me, though, something has to turn it around. It is a moving object and unless it bumps up against a wall of good earnings, it will keep rolling downhill.

[investor_007]

Even the Mighty Are Suffering
By Ben Holmes
New Issues Editor
4/12/00 6:04 PM ET



Ben Holmes has the market covered:
Sundays:
This Week in IPOs
Tuesdays:
This Week`s Secondaries
Wednesdays:
Upcoming Lockup Expirations
Fridays:
The Quiet Period



Click here for the latest from Ben Holmes.




It`s a real eye-opener sometimes to watch these deals come around to the end of their respective lockup periods. Some of these names were, and still are, great companies. Others were simply well-timed IPOs. The distinction will be made clear as they pass through the lockup expirations. The stocks worth owning over the long term -- names such as Crossroads Systems (CRDS:Nasdaq - news - boards), Sycamore Networks (SCMR:Nasdaq - news - boards) and Akamai Technologies (AKAM:Nasdaq - news - boards) -- may get heavily bruised over the next few weeks, but in my eyes that just makes them cheaper, and therefore more attractive.

Should you run out and buy these on the next dip? Probably not: It looks to me like there`s still a big slug of downside in some of these names. What alarms me is not so much the selling that is taking place, but rather the apparent total lack of buyers. Do you want to be the first to jump in and call the turnaround? Or, is it an altogether smarter play to wait until the blood starts to dry and then selectively pick up or add on positions in the names you believe in?

Lots of questions.

Let`s take a look at this week`s expirations:


Lockup End Deal Name Symbol Lead Underwriter
4/15/00 Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia (MSO:NYSE) Morgan Stanley Dean Witter
4/15/00 Radio Unica Communications (UNCA:Nasdaq) Salomon Smith Barney
4/15/00 World Wrestling Federation Entertainment (WWFE:Nasdaq) Bear Stearns
4/16/00 Bsquare (BSQR:Nasdaq) CS First Boston
4/16/00 Charlotte Russe Holding (CHIC:Nasdaq) Robertson Stephens
4/16/00 Crossroads Systems (CRDS:Nasdaq) SG Cowen
4/16/00 Zapme (IZAP:Nasdaq) Merrill Lynch
4/17/00 Pc Tel (PCTI:Nasdaq) Bank of America Securities
4/18/00 Satyam Infoway (SIFY:Nasdaq) Merrill Lynch
4/18/00 Sycamore Networks (SCMR:Nasdaq) Morgan Stanley Dean Witter
4/19/00 Navisite (NAVI:Nasdaq) Robertson Stephens
4/20/00 E Piphany (EPNY:Nasdaq) CS First Boston
4/20/00 Mck Communications (MCKC:Nasdaq) Robertson Stephens
4/23/00 Jni (JNIC:Nasdaq) Donaldson Lufkin
4/23/00 Viador (VIAD:Nasdaq) Bear Stearns
4/24/00 Data Return (DRTN:Nasdaq) Bear Stearns
4/24/00 Intertrust Technologies (ITRU:Nasdaq) CS First Boston
4/24/00 Triton Pcs Holdings (TPCS:Nasdaq) Morgan Stanley Dean Witter
4/25/00 Akamai Technologies (AKAM:Nasdaq) Morgan Stanley Dean Witter
4/25/00 Allied Riser Communications (ARCC:Nasdaq) Goldman Sachs
4/25/00 Plug Power (PLUG:Nasdaq) Goldman Sachs
4/25/00 Spanish Broadcasting System (SBSA:Nasdaq) Lehman Brothers
4/26/00 Gaiam (GAIA:Nasdaq) Tucker Anthony Cleary
Source ipoPros.com



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ben Holmes is the founder of ipoPros.com , a Boulder, Colo.-based research boutique (now a wholly-owned subsidiary of TheStreet.com) specializing in the analysis of equity syndicate offerings. This column is not meant as investment advice; it is instead meant to provide insight into the methods of new and secondary offerings. Neither Holmes nor his firm has entered indications of interest in any of the companies discussed in this column. Holmes` This Week in IPOs column appears Sundays, This Week`s Secondaries appears Tuesdays, Upcoming Lockup Expirations appears Wednesdays and The Quiet Period appears on Fridays. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Holmes appreciates your feedback at [e-mail].
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[investor_007]

The Fear Is Here
By James J. Cramer

4/14/00 3:24 PM ET



Click here for the latest from James J. Cramer.



They just got to Sun Micro (SUNW:Nasdaq - news - boards). That stock reminded me of the Beau Geste fort in Zinderneuf -- Sun Micro looked like Gary Cooper. Or maybe Robert Preston. Now it just feels like Ralph Meeker in Paths of Glory.

About to get shot for crimes it didn`t commit.

Or maybe that Jim Morrison book Nobody Here Gets Out Alive.

Lots of people sucking in deep breaths. Lots of people trying hard not to listen to Ron Insana. Lots of people eyeing the knife that just sliced through the 3250 NDX level.

Fear. Griping fear.

[investor_007]

It`s Awful, So It`s Time to Buy
By James J. Cramer

4/14/00 3:31 PM ET



Click here for the latest from James J. Cramer.



It`s the worst I have ever seen it. So we have to buy it. We are sticking by our plan. We just put $25 million to work because we have to. We don`t expect to be up on any of it, but we know we have to commit.

This is `87 like and I didn`t act fast and hard enough. It seems 1998 October-like, with another chance, this time to get it right. To get it long.

We have to buy because it hurts like a red hot rusty poker through our underbellies. It hurts like it has only hurt a few times. I have friends who have rumored to be in trouble. As I am an investor with them and privy I find it humorous and sad at the same time. It just seems right. It`s as bad as it gets, folks. It just seems right.


So often on Fridays people don`t want to buy because they remember that dreaded Friday before Monday when it was so bad in October 1987. To me it seems more like that Monday than that Friday. And the timing, a la the Trading Goddess, is very right. She was right again. The best prices came late at the end of the day.

[investor_007]

When Good News Doesn`t Matter
By James J. Cramer

4/20/00 10:43 AM ET



Click here for the latest from James J. Cramer.



Be careful -- good news isn`t working in technology. A bunch of Net infrastructure companies reported great numbers and they are all down. Some computer and semi companies reported terrific numbers and they aren`t working.

The drugs and foods reported OK numbers and they are working big-time. It is still early, but we detect that the Nasdaq four-letter wonders will go down on any little pimple, any little worry. That makes those stocks too hard right now. They have to retrace. The auction/B2B complex has to retrace. The owners are wounded. The stocks act wounded.


By the way, one reason why they are wounded is that the lockup expirations just get worse and worse. New data from Steve Galbraith, the Sanford Bernstein research analyst who helped me with my "take it off the table" call, reports today that as heavy as March was, April is worse and then May is twice as heavy. That`s too much of a gauntlet.

Silver lining: It gets better after that