Wann und wie kommt der nächste Crash? (Seite 25)
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https://www.marketwatch.com/story/biden-administration-watch…
=> kommt nun wieder das PPT (Plunge Protection Team) zum Einsatz?
Oder so wie damals unter Trump:
13.03.2020
Zitat von faultcode:
https://twitter.com/RudyHavenstein/status/123809737936835788…
--> Jim Cramer hat gestern während einer laufenden Sendung einen Anruf entgegen genommen (eine Tatsache)
--> es soll /könnte Steven Mnuchin/Secretary of the Treasury gewesen sein
<oder dessen Büro>
Beide, Cramer und Mnuchin, sind Ex-Goldman; insofern könnte es wirklich Mnuchin persönlich gewesen sein
--> damit wäre klar, wie im Weißen Haus so allgemein gearbeitet wird bei laufendem Fernseher
siehe auch:
The White House called CNBC host Jim Cramer on live television after he urged Trump to help the markets
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/white-house-…
--> insofern war gestern vorerst (mMn) Peak Panic (nein, der Bärenmarkt ist noch nicht zu Ende):
19.9.
Morgan Stanley Quant Sees Capitulation Risk Rising for Equities
https://news.yahoo.com/morgan-stanley-quant-sees-capitulatio…
...
Global macro investors are expecting elements of market dislocation, as they remain “net short on equities, and are targeting a tactical risk for the US terminal rate and US treasury 10Y yield to go beyond 5% and 4%, respectively,” strategists including Gilbert Wong wrote in a note. “Being overweight cash is the best way to hedge.”
...
Wong his and colleagues advise investors to “to stay defensive until capitulation” occurs. They recommend adding quality growth stocks amid any selloff and avoid shares with attributes of low quality and unprofitable growth.
...
Morgan Stanley Quant Sees Capitulation Risk Rising for Equities
https://news.yahoo.com/morgan-stanley-quant-sees-capitulatio…
...
Global macro investors are expecting elements of market dislocation, as they remain “net short on equities, and are targeting a tactical risk for the US terminal rate and US treasury 10Y yield to go beyond 5% and 4%, respectively,” strategists including Gilbert Wong wrote in a note. “Being overweight cash is the best way to hedge.”
...
Wong his and colleagues advise investors to “to stay defensive until capitulation” occurs. They recommend adding quality growth stocks amid any selloff and avoid shares with attributes of low quality and unprofitable growth.
...
...
The S&P 500’s long-term trend has turned “sharply lower recently,” and the index has closed below its 200-day moving average for 110 trading sessions, the longest streak since the bear markets of 2008-2009 and 2000-2002, according to Bespoke Investment Group.
“Prior stretches of weakness since 2010 turned out to be just corrections within longer-term uptrends, and the current decline appears to be turning into something more than that,” Bespoke strategists wrote in a note Friday. “It’s going to be hard to get too excited until the S&P moves back above its 200-day moving average.”
...
19.9.
S&P 500 Weakness Passes Ominous Milestone for Chart Watchers
https://www.yahoo.com/now/p-500-weakness-passes-ominous-1652…
The S&P 500’s long-term trend has turned “sharply lower recently,” and the index has closed below its 200-day moving average for 110 trading sessions, the longest streak since the bear markets of 2008-2009 and 2000-2002, according to Bespoke Investment Group.
“Prior stretches of weakness since 2010 turned out to be just corrections within longer-term uptrends, and the current decline appears to be turning into something more than that,” Bespoke strategists wrote in a note Friday. “It’s going to be hard to get too excited until the S&P moves back above its 200-day moving average.”
...
19.9.
S&P 500 Weakness Passes Ominous Milestone for Chart Watchers
https://www.yahoo.com/now/p-500-weakness-passes-ominous-1652…
19.9.
...
There's more in the full WSJ article, but we get the gist of it: we now have confirmation that Powell - after being dead wrong in 2020-2021 and easing far too long and enabling helicopter money and the idiocy that is MMT - wants to pivot 180 and become this generation's Volcker, even if it means a recession.
There is just one problem: the Fed thinks it can contain the fallout, just like in 2020/2021 (and every year before that) it will be wrong about everything. In fact, keep an eye on Wednesday's FOMC economic projections: we are confident that even after indicating that it wants a recession, the Fed will still not forecast a recession, i.e., it will anticipate an "smooth landing" for the economy.
...
Powell Scrapped His Original Jackson Hole Speech Just To Crush Stocks
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/powell-scrapped-his-origin…
--> WSJ:
19.9.
Jerome Powell’s Inflation Whisperer: Paul Volcker
Aiming to reduce inflation even at the risk of recession, the Fed Chairman draws on a 1980s playbook. ‘We must keep at it until the job is done.’
https://www.wsj.com/articles/jerome-powell-inflation-volcker…
...
There's more in the full WSJ article, but we get the gist of it: we now have confirmation that Powell - after being dead wrong in 2020-2021 and easing far too long and enabling helicopter money and the idiocy that is MMT - wants to pivot 180 and become this generation's Volcker, even if it means a recession.
There is just one problem: the Fed thinks it can contain the fallout, just like in 2020/2021 (and every year before that) it will be wrong about everything. In fact, keep an eye on Wednesday's FOMC economic projections: we are confident that even after indicating that it wants a recession, the Fed will still not forecast a recession, i.e., it will anticipate an "smooth landing" for the economy.
...
Powell Scrapped His Original Jackson Hole Speech Just To Crush Stocks
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/powell-scrapped-his-origin…
--> WSJ:
19.9.
Jerome Powell’s Inflation Whisperer: Paul Volcker
Aiming to reduce inflation even at the risk of recession, the Fed Chairman draws on a 1980s playbook. ‘We must keep at it until the job is done.’
https://www.wsj.com/articles/jerome-powell-inflation-volcker…
Trading Spotlight
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 71.107.095 von faultcode am 15.03.22 12:50:33Update Coppock Curve:
• nach Ende August rutschte die Coppock Curve (hellblau -- WMA10) in den negativen Bereich und löste damit ein allgemeines Verkaufssignal für den US-Aktienmarkt aus (hier der SPDR-ETF als Proxy):
d.h., erst irgendwann Anfang September (am Mittwoch, 31.8., war dieser Monats-Indikator noch ganz knapp > 0) rutschte der US-Aktienmarkt demnach in einen Bärenmarkt
=> nach diesem System braucht man also nicht auf die Idee kommen groß Aktien zu kaufen, solange dieser Indikator nicht wieder über Null ist
• nach Ende August rutschte die Coppock Curve (hellblau -- WMA10) in den negativen Bereich und löste damit ein allgemeines Verkaufssignal für den US-Aktienmarkt aus (hier der SPDR-ETF als Proxy):
d.h., erst irgendwann Anfang September (am Mittwoch, 31.8., war dieser Monats-Indikator noch ganz knapp > 0) rutschte der US-Aktienmarkt demnach in einen Bärenmarkt
=> nach diesem System braucht man also nicht auf die Idee kommen groß Aktien zu kaufen, solange dieser Indikator nicht wieder über Null ist
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 71.107.095 von faultcode am 15.03.22 12:50:33WO-User im Bullenmarkt: "Hier kann man langfristig kaum etwas falsch machen."
WO-User im Bärenmarkt: "Rationalität wird man hier vergeblich suchen."
=> merke: steigenden Kurse == rational, fallende Kurse == irrational
WO-User im Bärenmarkt: "Rationalität wird man hier vergeblich suchen."
=> merke: steigenden Kurse == rational, fallende Kurse == irrational
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 72.369.323 von faultcode am 09.09.22 13:34:45interessante These
meistens kommt es anders als man denkt:
8.9.
Crash-Obsessed Traders Splurge on Options at Two-Decade High
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/crash-obsessed-traders-splurg…
8.9.
Crash-Obsessed Traders Splurge on Options at Two-Decade High
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/crash-obsessed-traders-splurg…
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