Teamviewer (Seite 47)

[JBelfort]

Sucht euch aus, was euch gefällt. Ich bin ganz klar im Berenberg Camp und wette auf das upside Szenario.

[JBelfort]

Bank of America bearish - Kursziel 12

Long term growth remains questionable

Reiterate Rating: UNDERPERFORM | PO: 12.00 EUR | Price: 14.21 EUR

Weak billings imply lower revenue growth in outer years

Underlying billings grew +1%, +12% and +9% yoy (BofAe) in the first 3 quarters in FY23 respectively, as we include pricing but excluded mixed impacts from FX, multi-year deal and monetisation. We estimate pricing to have contributed c 4pp of growth YTD. As price increases annualise in Q4, we expect a smaller contribution in the next few quarters. We also expect billings to trend lower going forward as TMV struggles to find growth both at the low-end (stronger competition and lower demand) and the high-end (slow sales cycle and unproven growth prospects). This in turn predictably leads to lower revenue. Overall, we find FY23 revenue guidance undemanding given the billings growth YTD, but our Q4 revenue is still c. 3% below consensus and 2% and 5% below in FY24/25e. Reiterate Underperform as we remain bearish on TeamViewer’s long-term prospects. PO to €12 (from €11) as peers rerated from 4.4x to 5x FY23E Sales.

Demand for core remote solutions simply not growing

While TeamViewer has been expanding its use cases (e.g. Internet of Things, augmented reality) in the last few years, remote work and remote support remain the two primary use cases for the majority of users. In our view, the demand for these key use cases had peaked at the start of COVID-19 and has been trending down since. Compared to Jan 2020, TMV’s monthly active users are down 39% in key markets (Exhibit 1). AnyDesk grew 448% from a similarly sized base while other remote solutions declined 26%. Going forward, we believe the continued adoption of cloud solutions, better built-in remote capabilities from native software and the evolving ways to adapt to remote work will put further pressure on the demand for TeamViewer’s core solutions long term.

Enterprise long term prospects still questionable

Enterprise growth has become bumpy in the last few quarters amid macro concerns, with the lower annual contract value (ACV) deals driving much of the growth as higher ACV buckets have seen a significant drop in growth. These higher ACV deals typically come from TMV’s augmented reality (AR) solutions and partnerships with SAP, Google & Siemens. However, AR growth has slowed in the last 2 years, while partnerships have yet to materially contribute to growth despite a healthy pipeline for many quarters. An expanding Enterprise business along with a shrinking free base with low CAC would put margins under pressure.

[JBelfort]

Berenberg Bullish mit Kursziel 21

Upselling drives value in Q3

● We think that TeamViewer’s Q3 results published on 31 October appeared to
be solid. The company continues to grow at a low-double-digit rate (a highsingle-
digit rate when we look at billings growth in constant currency (CC)
terms), its wide adjusted-EBITDA margin profile remains resilient and most
of what TeamViewer generates in adjusted EBITDA it converts into cash flows.
Yet, its shares trade at an almost 9% FCF yield, which – for the performance it
is offering – looks too cheap, in our view. We see 45% upside to our EUR21.00
fair value estimate.
● Higher average selling prices (ASPs) support growth: TeamViewer’s sales
and annual recurring revenue (ARR) both grew at 10% yoy to EUR158m and
EUR633m respectively, while billings grew by 4% yoy (8% in CC terms) to
EUR150m in the third quarter. Investor feedback since the print suggests some
disappointment about TeamViewer’s billings pace and the +1% yoy (-1% qoq)
subscriber growth (to 626k) underpinning it. While new subscriber adds are
important, our investment case is predicated on TeamViewer monetising its
existing users better. With group-level ASPs up 10% yoy (and up 2% qoq) to
EUR1,066 in Q3 – marking its ninth consecutive double-digit increase in ASPs
– we think that TeamViewer is progressing well in this regard.
● Subscribers continue moving up market: Price increases at a low-single-digit
pace are supporting TeamViewer’s rising ASPs, but so is a shift among
subscribers toward buying more from the company. For example, while SMB
billings with an annual contract value (ACV) below EUR500 declined 1% yoy
on an LTM basis, SMB billings with an ACV between EUR1,500-10,000 grew
25% yoy and Enterprise billings with an ACV between EUR10,000 and
EUR50,000 expanded by 21% yoy. While this benefits TeamViewer’s ASP in
the near term, we think customers that broaden their usage with the company
may also drive customer stickiness in the mid-term.
● Wide margins a highlight in Q3: TeamViewer delivered adjusted EBITDA of
EUR70m in Q3 (up by 19% yoy), implying margins of 44%. This beat Q3
consensus by c10% and brings its 9m adjusted EBITDA to EUR198m (up 15%
yoy with a 43% margin) – almost all of which it converted into operating cash
flow (Q3 operating cash conversion was 96%). Coupled with sales growth of
12% yoy, we think that its high profitability ytd puts TeamViewer well on track
to hit management’s retained full-year guidance that calls for sales growth of
10-14% and adjusted-EBITDA margins of “around 40%”.
● Estimates changes: We lower our above-consensus sales and billings
estimates for 2023 and 2024 by between 0.7-1.5%, reflecting a more cautious
stance on the macroeconomic environment and TeamViewer’s enterprise
sales motion. However, we raise our 2023 and 2024 adjusted-EBITDA
estimates by c4%, reflecting higher-than-expected underlying margins in
2023 and the termination of its shirt-front sponsorship with Manchester
United, which should benefit the firm starting in 2024.
● Among Europe’s cheapest software assets: TeamViewer’s shares offer an
8.8% 2023 FCF yield – among the highest of European software stocks.

[JBelfort]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 74.964.259 von Der Tscheche am 14.12.23 10:54:21

"Kann es sein, dass hier einfach Optionen als Gehaltsbestandteil in Aktien gewandelt worden sind?"

Wenn dem so wäre, dann würde es da stehen, oder? Also so kenne ich es.

Solche Meldungen habe ich schon öfters gesehen. Glaube eher bei Marktengen Werten um den Kurs nicht zu beeinflussen.

[JBelfort]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 74.964.124 von Mich0815 am 14.12.23 10:42:38

Glaube nicht, dass es 2 Monatsgehälter sind. Wäre bei Steil drin, aber bei ihr? Keiner hat was zu verschenken. Wenn Insider investieren ist das immer gut, weil sie persönlich an die long-term Story glauben. Lese mir die Analysten Reports gerade durch. JPM und vor allem Bank of America schreiben, als wäre das Geschäftsmodell nicht mehr tragfähig bzw at risk um damit ihre KZ zu begründen. Wenn dann Insider kaufen, finde ich es für mich persönlich wichtig. Nur meine Meinung.

[Der Tscheche]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 74.964.043 von catocencoris am 14.12.23 10:32:36

Zitat von catocencoris: Ordentlicher Kauf von unserem Vorstandsmitglied / CPTO Mei Dent: 10.000 Aktien zu 13,6325 € 👍

https://www.eqs-news.com/de/news/directors-dealings/teamview…

Für mich eine reichlich dubiose Meldung: "interessewahrende Order" und außerbörslich.

Kann es sein, dass hier einfach Optionen als Gehaltsbestandteil in Aktien gewandelt worden sind?

[Mich0815]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 74.964.043 von catocencoris am 14.12.23 10:32:36

Ordentlich? 2 monatsgehälter ... peanuts um ein zeichen zu setzen

[catocencoris]

Ordentlicher Kauf von unserem Vorstandsmitglied / CPTO Mei Dent: 10.000 Aktien zu 13,6325 € 👍

https://www.eqs-news.com/de/news/directors-dealings/teamview…

[Dreiseitensteak]

UBS Group

13.12.2023 20:00:29
TeamViewer SE: Veröffentlichung gemäß § 40 Abs. 1 WpHG mit dem Ziel der europaweiten Verbreitung

EQS Stimmrechtsmitteilung: TeamViewer SE
TeamViewer SE: Veröffentlichung gemäß § 40 Abs. 1 WpHG mit dem Ziel der
europaweiten Verbreitung

13.12.2023 / 20:00 CET/CEST
Veröffentlichung einer Stimmrechtsmitteilung übermittelt durch EQS News -
ein Service der EQS Group AG.
Für den Inhalt der Mitteilung ist der Emittent / Herausgeber verantwortlich.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

Stimmrechtsmitteilung

1. Angaben zum Emittenten

Name: TeamViewer SE
Straße, Hausnr.: Bahnhofsplatz 2
PLZ: 73033
Ort: Göppingen
Deutschland
Legal Entity Identifier (LEI): 3912000FZ0R0KEK9JS42

2. Grund der Mitteilung

X Erwerb bzw. Veräußerung von Aktien mit Stimmrechten
Erwerb bzw. Veräußerung von Instrumenten
Änderung der Gesamtzahl der Stimmrechte
Sonstiger Grund:

3. Angaben zum Mitteilungspflichtigen

Juristische Person: UBS Group AG
Registrierter Sitz, Staat: Zurich, Schweiz

4. Namen der Aktionäre
mit 3% oder mehr Stimmrechten, wenn abweichend von 3.



5. Datum der Schwellenberührung:

08.12.2023

6. Gesamtstimmrechtsanteile

Anteil Anteil Summe Anteile Gesamtzahl der
Stimmrechte Instrumente (Summe 7.a. + Stimmrechte nach
(Summe 7.a.) (Summe 7.b.1.+ 7.b.) § 41 WpHG
7.b.2.)
neu 2,85 % 3,05 % 5,903 % 180000000
letzte 3,002 % 3,05 % 6,06 % /
Mittei-
lung.....

Sie traden ein bisschen, da es auch am 7.12.2023 zu Käufen kam und am 8.12.23 eben wieder was verkauft.

Hin und her.
Aber am 21.11.2023
sah es so aus.
2,24 / 3,08 / 5,32
nun immer noch
2,85 / 3,05 / 5,903

Schauen wir mal.

[Dreiseitensteak]

https://stock3.com/news/us-notenbank-laesst-leizins-unveraen…

Yep.
2024 könnte was werden, wenn möglicherweise....