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[dosto]

Top Financial News


07/28 02:57
Superior Bank, Pritzker-Owned Thrift, Shut by U.S. Regulators
By William Selway


Washington, July 28 (Bloomberg) -- Superior Bank FSB, a closely held thrift half-owned by the billionaire Pritzker family, was seized by federal regulators Friday, becoming the largest U.S. depository institution to fail since 1992.

Superior Bank, with assets of $2.3 billion and deposits of $1.6 billion, was declared insolvent by its main regulator, the Office of Thrift Supervision, which said losses on home and car loans to people with tarnished credit had depleted its capital.

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., which insures $3 trillion in bank and thrift deposits, took over the Hinsdale, Illinois-based thrift and will run it while seeking a buyer. The thrift will reopen for business Monday with a new charter and a new name, Superior Federal FSB. The FDIC, which insures deposit accounts up to $100,000, is providing $1.5 billion of credit to keep it afloat and cover withdrawals.

``Our goal is to have this institution back in private hands before year`s end,`` John Reich, acting chairman of the FDIC, said in a statement.

The failure is expected to cost the FDIC`s Savings Association Insurance Fund about $500 million, two FDIC officials said. The exact cost will be determined once the FDIC finds a buyer.

Pritzker Stake

Superior Bank has been owned since 1988 by the Pritzkers of Chicago -- one of the richest families in the U.S., whose holdings include the Hyatt Corp. hotel chain -- and the Dworman family in New York, which owns interests in real estate and financial services companies.

The thrift actively solicited borrowers with bad credit over the Internet. ``At Superior Bank, you won`t have to worry about past or even current credit problems, or let numerous debts prevent you from getting the loan you need,`` according to its Web site.

As of Friday, Superior offered a special Internet CD paying a 4.75 annual percentage yield for 11 months. The average rate on one-year retail bank CDs was 3.39 percent, according to BanxQuote Inc., which tracks rates.

Regulators blamed poor lending practices, improper record keeping and accounting and lax supervision for eroding the thrift`s capital.

According to filings with the OTS, Superior Bank`s core capital equaled 2.15 percent of assets on March 31, down from 12.13 percent a year earlier. Capital has since dipped below 2 percent, the threshold at which the OTS is permitted by law to shut down thrifts.

Mounting Losses

It lost $70 million in the first quarter, widening the $8.9 million loss it reported a year earlier.

On May 25, the Wall Street Journal reported that the Pritzkers had agreed to inject the thrift with $200 million in capital and $155 million to cover loan losses, citing an unnamed source. It said the Pritzker family would own 100 percent of the thrift and its parent company, Coast-to-Coast Financial Corp.

The OTS, without confirming the news report, said Friday that Superior had ``failed to implement a capital restoration plan that it submitted to OTS on May 24 this year.``

Harold Handelsman, the general counsel of Hyatt Corp. and a spokesman for the Pritzkers, wouldn`t take a call seeking comment Friday night. Pritzker family members couldn`t be reached.

In a statement to the press, the OTS said it first notified Superior Bank of its ``serious concerns`` last July. A ``high-risk business strategy`` of generating subprime mortgages and auto loans for resale in the secondary market hurt the thrift, the OTS said. Its capital dropped after incorrect accounting decisions and aggressive assumptions for valuing residual assets were uncovered, the regulator said.

The FDIC, which steps in after a bank or thrift is shut by its primary regulator, removed the thrift`s chairman and directors and replaced them with its own slate. Senior management will stay on for now, FDIC spokesman David Barr said.

Open for Business

The thrift`s 18 branches in the Chicago area will remain open and most depositors will be able to write checks and use teller machines and debit cards. The FDIC said the thrift has $42.9 million of potentially uninsured deposits.

``Probably since the banking industry turned around eight years ago, this is the largest institution to fail,`` said FDIC spokesman Barr.

Superior is twice as large in assets than First National Bank of Keystone, West Virginia, a bank it replaces as the biggest to fail since 1992. Keystone had $1.1 billion of assets when it collapsed in September 1999. Keystone, however, cost the FDIC`s Bank Insurance Fund $750 million to $850 million, more than the $500 million Superior is expected to cost the Savings Association Insurance Fund, the sister of the bank fund.

An unusual feature of the Superior Bank failure is that the FDIC created a conservator thrift to hold its assets and deposits, indicating the agency had to act quickly and no other thrift was able to quickly absorb the deposit portfolio.

``There aren`t too many institutions out there that would be able to absorb $1.6 billion in one day with little time to prepare,`` the FDIC`s Barr said. It will take six to eight weeks for the FDIC to find a private-sector buyer, he said.

``We will be operating

[dosto]

10:15AM US current account deficit called a risk by Rex Nutting
America`s growing current account deficit is unsustainably high, senators were told Wednesday. Former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin said the strong dollar policy shouldn`t be changed, but the government should encourage more domestic savings to reduce the dependency on foreign capital. Former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker warned that the dollar could crash like the stock markets did. Goldman Sachs` Bill Dudley said the strong dollar policy must be jetisoned now while U.S. assets are still attractive. Morgan Stanley`s Stephen Roach warned that the world`s economies are in recession and suggested that the major economies must undergo significant structural changes


quelle bloomberg

[dosto]

EARNINGS WATCH

Hall of fame, shame for the quarter

By Barbara C. Costanza, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 1:43 AM ET July 29, 2001




LOS ANGELES (CBS.MW) -- With three-fourths of the S&P 500 companies having reported quarterly results the past two weeks, U.S. profits are outpacing Wall Street`s consensus estimates by a slimmer margin than they have in the past.

But more tellingly, companies are surpassing the estimates by an average of only about 1.7 percent, compared with the average 3 percent of the past.


FRONT PAGE NEWS
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"The upside surprises haven`t been great," noted Ken Perkins, research analyst at First Call/Thomson Financial. Just last week, companies were outpacing estimates by about 2.3 percent.

The scorecard

Among the 371 S&P 500 companies that have reported results so far, year-over-year profits are down 17.2 percent; as recently as in April, that figure was expected to be a drop of 6.3 percent.

About 57 percent of the companies that have reported beat the consensus estimates, according to First Call, while 14 percent fell short and the other 29 percent matched the Street`s target.

This breakdown shouldn`t come as much of a shock to investors against a backdrop of economic weakness that has left companies busy steering Wall Street`s earnings projections lower for a number of months now.

Best and worst performing sectors

As for how they break down, the energy sector topped the charts, coming in 30 percent better than last year, with utilities in second place, up 21 percent. Health-care companies took third place, up 14 percent compared with last year.

And the worst performing sector is (surprise!) technology, down 64 percent compared with the year-ago period. Other sectors that appear to be doing poorly in terms of profit performance are transportation companies, down 62 percent, and consumer cyclicals, down 56 percent.

Winners of the week

So who came in as a winner and who came in as a loser for the week on a year-over-year comparison and vs. the consensus estimate?

No. 1 for year-over-year earnings growth is Nabors Industries (NBR: news, chart, profile). The company posted a profit that outpaced its year-ago total by 294 percent. Anadarko Petroleum`s (APC: news, chart, profile) profit came in 213 percent better than last year, while Halliburton (HAL: news, chart, profile) and Baker Hughes` (BHI: news, chart, profile) profits came in over 150 percent better than the year-ago period.

Taking first place for beating the consensus estimate was Rockwell Automation (ROK: news, chart, profile), beating the average estimate by 67 percent. McDermott International (MDR: news, chart, profile) and Corning (GLW: news, chart, profile) ran close seconds with 63 percent and 61 percent, respectively.

Losers of the week

Phelps Dodge (PD: news, chart, profile) was the biggest loser of the week, coming in 2,088 percent lower than the year-ago total. Broadvision (BVSN: news, chart, profile) missed its year-ago total by 575 percent, putting it in second place. Hasbro`s (HAS: news, chart, profile) profit for the quarter came in 375 percent lower than the year-ago period.

Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM: news, chart, profile) topped the chart with its profit of 14 cents, which missed the consensus estimate by 47 percent. Second place went to Schlumberger (SLB: news, chart, profile) coming 16 percent below the consensus estimate.

Hasbro lost out on both accounts taking third place, not only in year-over-year comparison but the consensus estimate comparison, missing the estimate by 15 percent

[dosto]

How Much Do Companies Really Earn?

By Peter Robison

New York, Aug. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Cisco Systems Inc. calls it ``pro forma net income.`` Procter & Gamble Co. prefers ``core net earnings.`` And SCI Systems Inc. presents ``cash earnings per share before realignment charges.``

Earnings aren`t what they used to be, as reported by scores of U.S. companies facing pressure to show shareholders perpetual growth. Many are departing from the standard measure of net income. Instead, they pick and choose what to highlight. They may include gains that gild their results or exclude routine costs such as stock-based compensation.

Investors aren`t being fooled, though, and they`re fed up with the sleight of hand. The manipulated calculations make it harder to compare companies and to get a true picture of performance, some investors say.

``It`s rampant, it`s terrible,`` said David Yucius, president of Aurora Investment Counsel in Atlanta, which manages $100 million in funds. ``Companies want to show smooth, upwardly sloping earnings, and the best way to do that is to factor out all these costs.``

As many as 300 companies have switched to reporting some type of pro-forma earnings, says Thomson Financial/First Call, a Boston- based research firm that tracks analyst estimates.

At Cisco, for example, pro-forma net income was $230 million in the fiscal third quarter. Pro forma, by Cisco`s definition, means before acquisition-related costs, payroll taxes on exercises of stock options, restructuring costs, investment gains and a $2.25 billion pretax charge for writing down the value of inventory. What Cisco terms its ``actual loss`` was $2.69 billion.

Take a Closer Look

SCI, an electronics maker being acquired by Sanmina Corp., bragged in its fiscal fourth-quarter release that it met or beat Wall Street estimates with ``cash EPS`` of 27 cents.

There was less to brag about to investors diligent enough to read the accompanying table. It showed $46.9 million in ``special charges`` that led to a bottom-line loss of $843,000, or 1 cent a share. SCI called the charges ``nonrecurring,`` even though it may take $70 million to $100 million of similar charges for job cuts and plant closings this quarter.

Many investors prefer numbers that exclude items that might distort comparisons, said Jim Moylan, SCI`s chief financial officer.

Other investors take issue with that. They want analysts to scrutinize results more closely, instead of computing estimates by each company`s yardstick of choice -- excluding ``special`` or ``unusual`` items on the grounds that they don`t reflect the underlying business. Some analysts may be reluctant to seem critical for fear of jeopardizing their firm`s efforts to win investment-banking business, investors say.

``Whether it`s naivete or laziness or pressure, they haven`t done the job,`` said Chuck Hill, First Call`s research director.

Trendsetters

Companies typically try to present their results in the best light. The change is in how far they`re willing to go to reach that end. The rise of high-flying Internet stocks like Amazon.com Inc. and Yahoo! Inc., which popularized pro-forma earnings to minimize losses in the late 1990s, made it more acceptable for companies to pitch alternate profit measures, analysts said.

Not all companies are following the fad. International Business Machines Corp. announced in 1996 that it would take no more restructuring charges, and it`s sticking with that policy. It doesn`t break out the cost of restructuring steps from net income.

``We considered these charges normal course of business,`` said Carol Makovich, an IBM spokeswoman.

FASB`s Role

Hill complained that the Financial Accounting Standards Board, the private group the Securities and Exchange Commission relies on to set accounting standards, ``helped sprinkle these things with holy water`` by easing the earnings impact of accounting for goodwill from acquisitions.

Goodwill is the amount a purchaser pays beyond book value for a company`s assets -- substantial sums in the case of technology companies with soaring stocks.

New FASB rules, passed last month, allow companies to assess the value of goodwill on their books periodically and take charges only when that value has fallen. The group backed away from a proposal that would have forced companies to continue to amortize, or write off, the value over 20 years or more.

Lynn Turner, the SEC`s chief accountant, has put the issue on the agency`s radar screen. More than once, he has referred to the pro-forma trend as ``everything but bad stuff`` earnings reports.

Turner said in June that the SEC is investigating whether four companies misled investors with pro-forma earnings statements. He has prodded Financial Executives International, a trade group, to release guidelines calling on companies to ensure that any pro-forma earnings cited in press releases are clearly reconciled with generally accepted accounting principles.

``It just seems like people are not always shooting straight with their investors,`` Turner said.

Congress is getting involved in the push for change as well. ``If every company comes up with its own definitions, the utility of pro-forma reporting is diminished for a small investor as he or she has no frame of reference to compare the pro-forma results with,`` Representative Cliff Stearns, a Florida Republican, said at a subcommittee hearing this week.

Preparing for Hurricanes

The GAAP basis is strict about what constitutes an ``extraordinary item,`` requiring it to be both unusual and infrequent, said Julia Grant, associate professor of accountancy at Case Western Reserve University. A company based in Florida, for example, couldn`t claim the costs of hurricane damage as an extraordinary item because hurricanes are frequent in the state.

In theory, that rules out ``some things we see a lot,`` Grant said, such as inventory writedowns, gains or losses from property sales and charges for corporate reorganizations. Unlike SEC filings, statements to the public and press don`t have to meet GAAP standards.

Intel Corp. last year pressed analysts to include investment gains in earnings estimates. Analysts who follow Microsoft Corp. did the same -- until the gains turned into a $2.6 billion investment loss for its fiscal fourth quarter, when they were excluded.

Terry Ragsdale, a semiconductor analyst at Goldman, Sachs & Co., said he had thought it was more informative to exclude Intel`s investment gains from his estimates. Eventually, though, it became so confusing to be using a different formula than colleagues that he gave in and joined them.

Cisco`s Way

Cisco excluded the $2.25 billion pretax charge for inventory it says is worthless, and many analysts did the same. But Nortel Networks Corp. included $650 million of pretax inventory charges in its second-quarter earnings, while excluding some of the same things Cisco did, such as stock-based compensation and goodwill from acquisitions. Again, many analysts followed.

``The way results are coming out now, it`s just way too subjective,`` Yucius said. ``There used to be a commonly understood set of principles.``

Cisco spokeswoman Abby Smith said the company`s reporting style isn`t arbitrary. Cisco has used a ``consistent methodology`` for more than five years for calculating and reporting inventory, she said.

Procter & Gamble`s Turnabout

Procter & Gamble for years advised analysts to include sales of product lines as a continuing part of its business because the company is constantly reshuffling the portfolio. But in June, Procter & Gamble said it would take a $1.2 billion charge to cut jobs, phase out lines such as Olay cosmetics and write off food- manufacturing assets. Analysts excluded the costs from earnings forecasts, as they had done for $2.59 billion in other charges since 1999.

``Things are getting really bad when you see classy companies like Procter & Gamble playing these games,`` said Peter Skirkanich, president of Fox Asset Management in Little Silver, New Jersey, which manages $2 billion. Skirkanich said he was so annoyed that he sold Procter & Gamble stock. Procter & Gamble declined to comment.

Skirkanich called on regulators to enforce more uniform standards of reporting. Even if they don`t, he said, companies aren`t likely to be able to keep investors at bay much longer, especially as the stock market drops and the economy slows.

``When it works and people are making lots of money, they don`t care,`` Skirkanich said. ``But at the end of the day, you`ve got to have real cash flow and good products and balance sheets.``

[dosto]

08/07 08:21
Procter & Gamble Has First Loss in 8 Years on Costs (Update2)
By Steve Matthews


Cincinnati, Aug. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Procter & Gamble Co., the largest U.S. household-products maker, had its first loss in eight years because of costs to dump unprofitable lines and fire workers.

The fiscal fourth-quarter loss of $320 million, or 23 cents a share, compared with net income of $516 million, or 36 cents, a year earlier. Sales for Procter & Gamble, the maker of Tide detergent and Folgers coffee, fell less than 1 percent to $9.58 billion from $9.66 billion in the quarter ended June 30.

CEO A.G. Lafley, who took over 14 months ago, is shedding lines such as Olay cosmetics and eliminating 9,600 jobs. While he has said cost-cutting is running ahead of schedule, sales continue to be hurt by increased competition and falling currencies.

``P&G has been bloated with people and high costs,`` said Stephen Kent, portfolio manager at Northern Trust Value Investors, whose parent owns 10 million shares. ``They are making progress. It`s truly a work in progress.``

Excluding charges of $1.16 billion, profit rose 7.7 percent to $837 million, or 60 cents a share, from $777 million, or 55 cents, in the year-earlier period, the company said. On this basis, Procter & Gamble was expected to earn 59 cents, the average estimate of analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial/First Call.

Procter & Gamble said profit in the fiscal first quarter will rise only slightly, in the ``low-to-mid single digits,`` or about 1 percent to 6 percent. The company`s earnings are expected to rise 3.4 percent to 91 cents, according to First Call. Unit volume, or the number of the products sold, will be unchanged, the Cincinnati-based company said.

Annual Forecast

Earnings this year will rise at least as much as the past year, or about 6 percent, the company said, repeating a forecast it made in June. That`s below Lafley`s goal for annual 10 percent earnings gains.

Sales have been cut by greater competition in the U.S. and by declining currencies, which reduce the value of overseas sales when translated into dollars. In the 12 months ended June 30, the Turkish lira fell 51 percent, the Brazil real fell 22 percent, and the euro fell 11 percent.

``The company should be able to increase productivity by being aggressive in reduction of the workforce and being more efficient,`` said Marvin Roffman, president of Roffman Miller Associates, which has about 2 percent of its $135 million in assets in Procter & Gamble shares. ``The euro is hurting them. There`s difficulty in building volume.``

In June, P&G said it would take a $1.2 billion fourth-quarter charge, including $800 million to shut poorly performing businesses, $200 million for the latest job moves, and $200 million for job cuts and plant closings as part of a two-year- old plan.

A year earlier, P&G took a restructuring charge of $261 million, or 19 cents a share, for part of Durk Jager`s plan to eliminate cut 15,000 jobs. Jager is the former CEO of the company

[dosto]

Computer, Software CEO Pay Is Chaotic
Commentary. Graef Crystal is a columnist for Bloomberg News. The opinions expressed are his own.


By Graef Crystal

Las Vegas, Aug 7 (Bloomberg) -- There`s chaos in Silicon Valley, and it isn`t just because of declining sales, rapidly disappearing profits and stock prices that are headed for Davy Jones` locker.

The chaos extends to the pay of the computer and software industry`s chief executives, based on a study of 140 companies with $100 million or more of annual sales.

Consider that average total pay was $16.4 million in 2000, but if a mere four cases are excluded, the figure drops all the way to $8.9 million.

The four almost genetically engineered super-hogs are Apple Computer Inc.`s Steve Jobs, whose total pay was $578.7 million; Siebel Systems Inc.`s Tom Siebel, $227.5 million; Oracle Corp.`s Larry Ellison, $154.3 million; and Cisco Systems Inc.`s John Chambers, $120.1 million.

On the other side of the pay spectrum, we have Sapient Corp.`s co-CEOs, Jerry Greenberg and Stuart Moore. Each earned $51,000. No, friends, that isn`t for a week, or even for a month. That`s $51,000 for a whole year`s work.

Ties to Size

These results are based largely on pay statistics compiled from companies` proxy statements and provided by ecomp- online.com, an executive compensation Web site. The present value of CEO stock options was calculated independently.

With pay ranging this much, you have to wonder whether there is any rhyme or reason as to why one CEO gets one pay package and another gets a much bigger package.

The most consistent explanation lies in the companies` size. Other things being equal, the bigger the company, the bigger the CEO`s pay package. That held true for computer and software CEOs; a statistical analysis showed that differences in sales accounted for 25 percent of the variation in pay levels.

That left, of course, 75 percent of the variation to be explained. Company performance, namely total shareholder return during fiscal 2000 less the return on the Nasdaq Composite Index for the same period, didn`t help. Combining size and performance didn`t explain pay differences any better than using size alone.

To be sure, the top quarter of CEOs as ranked by pay delivered performance that collectively was substantially better than the bottom quarter. But there were enough poor performers at the top and good performers at the bottom, and enough of both in the middle 50 percent, to cause the relationship between pay and performance to be less than statistically significant.

Why So Overpaid?

The two most relatively overpaid CEOs for fiscal 2000 were Tibco Software Inc.`s Vivek Ranadive and Inktomi Corp.`s David Peterschmidt. They demonstrate two aspects of the pay chaos existing in Silicon Valley.

Ranadive exemplifies the not-uncommon pattern of a CEO who goes without any options one year and gets a very large grant the next year. In 2000, he received options on three million shares; in 1999, he received none.

Last year`s grant helped lift his pay to almost 30 times what an average-paying computer or software maker with the same dollar amount of sales would give its CEO. It is worth noting that the grant was more than four times larger than he received in 1998.

The second source of chaos lies in the sheer size of option grants, rather than their frequency. Peterschmidt, whose 2000 pay was more than 28 times the average, is an example.

Beginning in 1998, Inktomi`s CEO has received options every year. But last year`s grant of 1.2 million shares was triple the size of his grants in both 1998 and 1999.

Playing Option Game

It is true, of course, that virtually all of the pay figures for CEOs such as these look to be high currently. That is the case because the pay game in Silicon Valley is mainly played with stock options, and options are almost universally underwater these days.

My option values are calculated using the Black-Scholes option pricing model, which assumes average performance on the part of a company`s shares rather than the sort of performance witnessed during the last year or so.

Options granted to CEOs almost always carry 10-year terms of exercise, so plenty can happen in the future to brighten the skies over the computer and software crowd.

Then again, even if you strip out the present value of the CEOs` options when they were granted, stock performance explains little of the variation in their pay. But company size can explain not merely 25 percent, but a more satisfying 40 percent.

The wildly varying size of stock option grants is thus weakening the connection between pay and performance, and by a substantial margin, rather than strengthening it. That can make a big difference in the future.

Forget About Costs

For an extreme example, consider two CEOs running companies of about the same size whose shares trade for $50 each. One gets an option for one million shares with a strike price of $50, and the other receives an option covering just 100,000 shares.

If the stock of the first company doubles, that CEO stands to earn $50 million by exercising his options. For the second CEO to earn the same $50 million, his company`s share price will have to rise 11-fold, not just double.

The big culprit here is that the denizens of Silicon Valley have come to view options as cost-free. After all, they aren`t required to take charges to earnings for the costs of granting options, so there isn`t any need for discipline in controlling those costs.

Yes, there is dilution aplenty, but most of that will cut in well after the CEO receiving the options is safely in retirement, if not already in the ground.

So why not make take that option for 100,000 shares up to a cool million shares when the cost seems to be zero in both cases? Why not add to the chaos?

[dosto]

08/09 15:20
U.S. Retailers` July Sales Rise 3.4%, Led by Wal-Mart (Update5)
By Shobhana Chandra


New York, Aug. 9 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. retailers` same-store sales last month rose 3.4 percent, the smallest July increase in five years, as consumers sought lower prices at discount chains such as Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and warehouse clubs.

Sales at stores open at least a year were in line with the 3.5 percent forecast from Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi Ltd., whose index tracks about 80 retailers. A 6 percent gain at Wal-Mart, the largest retailer, made up more than a third of the index`s rise, Bank of Tokyo said.

Discounters benefited from tax-refund checks mailed in the last week of July, as consumers bought cameras and lawnmowers along with everyday items like soap and paper towels. Department stores and clothing chains lacked the fashions shoppers wanted, analysts said, and price cuts to clear summer merchandise failed to spur sales as the U.S. economy slowed.

``Consumers are thinking hard about what they`re spending on,`` said analyst Marty Bukoll of Northern Trust Corp., which owns retail shares. ``The job layoffs haven`t helped.``

Gap Inc. said it will pare its worldwide corporate staff by about 800 workers, more than its goal of a 5 percent to 7 percent reduction. The No. 1 U.S. clothing chain`s July same-store sales fell 12 percent, more than forecast.

Abercrombie & Fitch Co.`s July sales fell 14 percent, also more than estimated. Profit in the second half will be less than analysts` forecasts, the company said. Its shares dropped $6.14, or 17 percent, to $30 in late trading.

``Unquestionably, the retail environment remains very difficult,`` Chief Executive Mike Jeffries said in a statement.

Abercrombie expects to meet or slightly exceed its second- quarter profit forecast of 22 cents a share because it controlled inventory, price markdowns and expenses.

July Sales

Shoppers have slowed spending because of job cuts and declines in the stock market, analysts said. Interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year have yet to boost retail sales.

Same-store sales are an important indicator of a retailer`s growth because they exclude sales from new and closed locations.

Limited Inc., the second-largest U.S. clothing retailer, had a 6 percent drop. Limited`s shares fell 24 cents to $16.76.

At Limited`s majority-owned Intimate Brands Inc., owner of Victoria`s Secret lingerie stores, same-store sales fell 7 percent.

Most retailers slashed prices on clothing, shoes and accessories to get rid of slow-selling items as well as to make room for fall merchandise.

``If it hadn`t been for the deep markdowns, things would have been even worse for retailers,`` said Kurt Barnard, president of Barnard`s Retail Trend Report.

AnnTaylor Stores Corp.`s July sales fell 17 percent, more than forecast. Still, the retailer expects to earn 22 cents in the second quarter, a penny above analysts` reduced average estimate, as shoppers paid full prices for clothes at its lower-priced Ann Taylor Loft chain in the last week of July. A year earlier, it earned 45 cents.

Shares of New York-based AnnTaylor rose $3.01, or 10 percent, to $31.68.

Among clothing chains, an exception was Talbots Inc., which had a better-than-expected 7.4 percent increase. Talbots said fiscal second-quarter earnings may be at the ``high end`` of its 25-cent to 27-cent projection.

Analysts` average estimate is 27 cents, according to Thomson Financial/First Call. A year ago, Talbots earned 23 cents. Its shares rose 9 cents to $39.59.

``You have incredible variability here between the winners and losers,`` said analyst Eric Beder at Ladenburg Thalmann. ``It has to do with who has the right styles and right values.``

Lower-price clothing and accessories retailer Ross Stores Inc.`s July sales rose 5 percent from a year earlier. The company raised forecasts for second-quarter earnings to as much as 44 cents, from its earlier estimate of as much as 40 cents.

Tax Rebate

More than $38 billion in federal income-tax rebate checks was mailed to consumers starting July 20. Households that paid federal income tax in 2000 are receiving one-time checks ranging from $300 to $600.

Several states also declared tax-free holidays for purchases of certain back-to-school items, which inspired customers to visit stores.

Wal-Mart has said it will cash rebate checks for free without a purchase at its stores. Consumers cashing checks at a Wal-Mart are spending about 25 percent of the money at the store. Those cashing checks at its Sam`s Clubs warehouse stores are spending about 80 percent of the money there, Wal-Mart said.

Most customers are buying electronics, bicycles and other products that give the retailer a narrower profit margin on each sale, Wal-Mart said. Its shares fell 85 cents to $53.68.

``You can`t help being a bit more optimistic because of what we`ve seen from the (effects of) tax refunds so far,`` Bank of Tokyo`s Mike Niemira said. ``It gets people into stores. We really need to see how it plays out.``

Kmart Corp., which also offered tax check-cashing services, had a 3.4 percent increase.

Costco, Target

Sales at stores open at least a year rose 4 percent at Costco Wholesale Corp.`s warehouse clubs.

Target Corp. had a 5.7 percent same-store sales gain at its namesake stores.

J.C. Penney Co.`s department stores had a 2.2 percent increase, while sales at its Eckerd drugstores rose a better-than- expected 10 percent. The company expects second-quarter results will be ``slightly better`` than the average 22-cent loss estimate of analysts surveyed by First Call.

Sales fell 4.2 percent at Federated Department Stores Inc., owner of Macy`s and Bloomingdale`s. Sears, Roebuck & Co., the largest U.S. department-store chain, had a wider-than-expected sales decline of 3 percent.

``July was another challenging month,`` said Chief Executive Alan Lacy in a statement. He has told managers to find ways to reduce costs.

August same-store sales are forecast to rise 3.5 percent to 4 percent, which would be the smallest gain for that month in five years, Niemira said.

[dosto]

08/10 17:16
Oracle`s 1st-Qtr Software Sales to Fall, CFO Says (Update1)
By Ashley Gross


Redwood City, California, Aug. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Oracle Corp.`s fiscal first-quarter software sales are likely to fall, compared with an earlier forecast that they would be little changed, Chief Financial Officer Jeff Henley said.

The third-largest software maker hasn`t seen an improvement yet in corporate spending, Henley said in an interview. The Redwood City, California-based company probably will still meet its forecast for profit of 8 cents a share for the quarter ending this month because of cost-cutting, he said.

Corporate spending on software has slackened this year as Internet-related companies shut down and bigger businesses curtail purchases because of concerns about the economy. On June 18, when Oracle reported fourth-quarter earnings, Henley had said that he thought sales would pick up during the quarter.

``The environment in North America hasn`t shown any pickup yet,`` Henley said.

Oracle divides its sales into software revenue, which refers to sales of new licenses for programs, and services revenue, which comes from support and maintenance of customers` software programs.

Oracle shares, which have declined 48 percent this year, fell 83 cents to $15.16 today.


also das hatts noch nicht gegeben
der obermacker von oracle-wie weißt er noch ellison oder so,
schickt seine bediensteten aus,
dieser waschlappen ist natürlich nicht bereit schlechte nachrichten zu verklauseren, das ist dann sklavenarbeit.

wie sich die zeiten ändern

die hyper-bosse von intel, oracle, jdsu, cisco,
werden richtig kleinmäulig.

woher stinkt der fisch
der geruch kommt sicherlich von den sklaven, die oben
riechen doch nach feinem rasierwasser,
welche superkerle haben wir da als vorstände?
erinnert mich an villon

bei weibern ,wein und kartenspiel, da wogen sie noch
niemals viel.
schießt die memmen ab.
neue vorstände braucht das land.

die luschen sollen auf die insel.

[Gulliver]

Tuesday August 7, 9:06 pm Eastern Time
Cisco Net Profit Tumbles 99 Percent
By Ben Klayman

CHICAGO (Reuters) - Technology bellwether Cisco Systems Inc. (NasdaqNM:CSCO - news), the top maker of the gear that powers the Internet, on Tuesday reported a fiscal fourth-quarter net profit of just $7 million, sinking 99 percent from a year earlier as it posted sales on the low side of expectations.


Reeling from a global economic slowdown and turmoil among its corporate and telecommunications customers, Cisco, whose shares slipped after the results, posted the first annual loss in its 11 years a public company. In a sign that the worst may not be over, it cautioned its first-quarter sales may drop by as much as 5 percent from the fourth quarter`s $4.3 billion.

Fiscal fourth-quarter net income, including charges to cover the effect of acquisitions, employee stock options and restructuring costs, fell to $7 million, or nil cents a share, compared with a net profit of $796 million, or 11 cents a share, in the year-earlier quarter ended in July.

``No one really knows when the economy and capital spending will bottom out,`` Chief Executive John Chambers told analysts on a conference call following the financial results` release.

``We understand that calendar year 1999 and 2000 were a unique time of rapid spending, but we don`t believe the fundamentals of our industry have changed,`` he added.

While the U.S. market is approaching a bottom customers remain cautious, Chambers said. Business also is not looking any better in Europe or Asia, and could still get worse in Japan.

However, one analyst believes Cisco is simply waiting to say it has hit bottom until after it has started back up.

``You can start to make a case that while uncertainty is there, business is picking up,`` J.P. Morgan H&Q`s Greg Geiling said. ``They`re not going to call a bottom too early.``

Others analysts felt Cisco did not provide what investors had hoped for, saying when the economy would start to improve. Instead, they got words of caution from Chambers.

``Cisco`s total business is at least one or possibly two quarters away from a trough,`` said Justin McNichols, portfolio manager with Osborne Partners Capital Management.

In reaction to the report, shares of Cisco fell to $18.80 in after-hours trading on Instinet from a close of $19.26. In regular Nasdaq trading on Tuesday before the results were released, the shares fell 28 cents, or about 1.4 percent.

The San Jose, California-based networking giant said its operating earnings for the quarter ended July 28 were $163 million, or 2 cents a share, compared with $1.2 billion, or 16 cents a share, in the year-earlier quarter.

Analysts had expected the company to post operating earnings of 2 cents a share, excluding charges, with a range of nil to 4 cents, according to market research firm Thomson Financial/First Call.

Cisco posted an actual net loss for the fiscal 2001 year, including items, of $1.01 billion, or 14 cents per share, compared with net income of $2.67 billion, or 36 cents per share, for fiscal 2000.

Fourth-quarter sales fell 25 percent to $4.3 billion from $5.72 billion last year. Cisco had said sales would be flat to down 10 percent from $4.73 billion in the third quarter. Sales for the full fiscal year rose 18 percent to $22.29 billion.

``It looks like they did a very good job of cost controls,`` Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein analyst Ariane Mahler said of the company`s quarterly operating profit. She said the 2-cent profit was all interest income.

``Cisco results are like a money market account,`` she added, contrasting how the company had to rely on its store of $18.5 billion in cash to generate profits instead of relying on sales of its network gear.

Chambers said cash is key during slowdowns and the company would use the money for a number of things, including potential stock buybacks and acquisitions of smaller firms. He said Cisco was not interested in Britain`s Marconi Plc. (quote from Yahoo! UK & Ireland: MONI.L)

He also said Cisco will not aggressively cut prices to win market share at the expense of profits.

Over the past year, Cisco`s shares have underperformed the Standard & Poor`s 500 index by about 65 percent, while outperforming its bedraggled peer group in the American Stock Exchange Networking index by about 9 percent.

Chambers said Cisco was on track to cut $1 billion in operating costs on an annualized basis. He said the company had gained market share in the latest quarter against key rival Juniper Networks Inc. (NasdaqNM:JNPR - news), as well as Nortel Networks Corp. (NYSE:NT - news; Toronto:NT.TO - news) and Lucent Technologies Inc. (NYSE:LU - news)

Cisco officials said the company had pared back a huge glut of unsold inventory to $1.7 billion from the $2.2 billion level reported during the quarter ended in May.

Like many communications equipment and technology firms, Cisco has grappled with the sputtering global economy and a customer spending slump in telecommunications equipment.

Last month, fiber-optic powerhouse JDS Uniphase Corp. (Toronto:JDU.TO - news; NasdaqNM:JDSU - news) posted a $50.6 billion loss for the year, the largest in recent North American corporate history. Meanwhile Nortel reported a second-quarter $19.4 billion loss, following a third quarter loss of $1.89 billion by Lucent.

However, Chambers said in May there was a gleam of light at the end of a long, dark tunnel as there were signs the networking and communications sectors could hit bottom in the next one or two quarters and perhaps resume growth in 2002.

But the company cautioned the outlook remained murky, especially among service providers which include telephone companies and cable televisions firms.

Cisco long delivered strong quarterly revenue growth of 30 percent to 50 percent, even posting eye-popping rates of 60 percent or better in 2000.

On Tuesday, Chambers slightly hedged on his prediction the company can return to the days of 30 percent to 50 percent annual growth, saying it was an achievable ``stretch`` goal. Analysts have said 15 percent to 20 percent is more realistic. Tuesday August 7, 9:06 pm Eastern Time
Cisco Net Profit Tumbles 99 Percent
By Ben Klayman

CHICAGO (Reuters) - Technology bellwether Cisco Systems Inc. (NasdaqNM:CSCO - news), the top maker of the gear that powers the Internet, on Tuesday reported a fiscal fourth-quarter net profit of just $7 million, sinking 99 percent from a year earlier as it posted sales on the low side of expectations.


Reeling from a global economic slowdown and turmoil among its corporate and telecommunications customers, Cisco, whose shares slipped after the results, posted the first annual loss in its 11 years a public company. In a sign that the worst may not be over, it cautioned its first-quarter sales may drop by as much as 5 percent from the fourth quarter`s $4.3 billion.

Fiscal fourth-quarter net income, including charges to cover the effect of acquisitions, employee stock options and restructuring costs, fell to $7 million, or nil cents a share, compared with a net profit of $796 million, or 11 cents a share, in the year-earlier quarter ended in July.

``No one really knows when the economy and capital spending will bottom out,`` Chief Executive John Chambers told analysts on a conference call following the financial results` release.

``We understand that calendar year 1999 and 2000 were a unique time of rapid spending, but we don`t believe the fundamentals of our industry have changed,`` he added.

While the U.S. market is approaching a bottom customers remain cautious, Chambers said. Business also is not looking any better in Europe or Asia, and could still get worse in Japan.

However, one analyst believes Cisco is simply waiting to say it has hit bottom until after it has started back up.

``You can start to make a case that while uncertainty is there, business is picking up,`` J.P. Morgan H&Q`s Greg Geiling said. ``They`re not going to call a bottom too early.``

Others analysts felt Cisco did not provide what investors had hoped for, saying when the economy would start to improve. Instead, they got words of caution from Chambers.

``Cisco`s total business is at least one or possibly two quarters away from a trough,`` said Justin McNichols, portfolio manager with Osborne Partners Capital Management.

In reaction to the report, shares of Cisco fell to $18.80 in after-hours trading on Instinet from a close of $19.26. In regular Nasdaq trading on Tuesday before the results were released, the shares fell 28 cents, or about 1.4 percent.

The San Jose, California-based networking giant said its operating earnings for the quarter ended July 28 were $163 million, or 2 cents a share, compared with $1.2 billion, or 16 cents a share, in the year-earlier quarter.

Analysts had expected the company to post operating earnings of 2 cents a share, excluding charges, with a range of nil to 4 cents, according to market research firm Thomson Financial/First Call.

Cisco posted an actual net loss for the fiscal 2001 year, including items, of $1.01 billion, or 14 cents per share, compared with net income of $2.67 billion, or 36 cents per share, for fiscal 2000.

Fourth-quarter sales fell 25 percent to $4.3 billion from $5.72 billion last year. Cisco had said sales would be flat to down 10 percent from $4.73 billion in the third quarter. Sales for the full fiscal year rose 18 percent to $22.29 billion.

``It looks like they did a very good job of cost controls,`` Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein analyst Ariane Mahler said of the company`s quarterly operating profit. She said the 2-cent profit was all interest income.

``Cisco results are like a money market account,`` she added, contrasting how the company had to rely on its store of $18.5 billion in cash to generate profits instead of relying on sales of its network gear.

Chambers said cash is key during slowdowns and the company would use the money for a number of things, including potential stock buybacks and acquisitions of smaller firms. He said Cisco was not interested in Britain`s Marconi Plc. (quote from Yahoo! UK & Ireland: MONI.L)

He also said Cisco will not aggressively cut prices to win market share at the expense of profits.

Over the past year, Cisco`s shares have underperformed the Standard & Poor`s 500 index by about 65 percent, while outperforming its bedraggled peer group in the American Stock Exchange Networking index by about 9 percent.

Chambers said Cisco was on track to cut $1 billion in operating costs on an annualized basis. He said the company had gained market share in the latest quarter against key rival Juniper Networks Inc. (NasdaqNM:JNPR - news), as well as Nortel Networks Corp. (NYSE:NT - news; Toronto:NT.TO - news) and Lucent Technologies Inc. (NYSE:LU - news)

Cisco officials said the company had pared back a huge glut of unsold inventory to $1.7 billion from the $2.2 billion level reported during the quarter ended in May.

Like many communications equipment and technology firms, Cisco has grappled with the sputtering global economy and a customer spending slump in telecommunications equipment.

Last month, fiber-optic powerhouse JDS Uniphase Corp. (Toronto:JDU.TO - news; NasdaqNM:JDSU - news) posted a $50.6 billion loss for the year, the largest in recent North American corporate history. Meanwhile Nortel reported a second-quarter $19.4 billion loss, following a third quarter loss of $1.89 billion by Lucent.

However, Chambers said in May there was a gleam of light at the end of a long, dark tunnel as there were signs the networking and communications sectors could hit bottom in the next one or two quarters and perhaps resume growth in 2002.

But the company cautioned the outlook remained murky, especially among service providers which include telephone companies and cable televisions firms.

Cisco long delivered strong quarterly revenue growth of 30 percent to 50 percent, even posting eye-popping rates of 60 percent or better in 2000.

On Tuesday, Chambers slightly hedged on his prediction the company can return to the days of 30 percent to 50 percent annual growth, saying it was an achievable ``stretch`` goal. Analysts have said 15 percent to 20 percent is more realistic.

cu Gulliver

jaja,operativ keine piepe verdient, nur die cashzinsen haben das ergebnis ins plus gedreht: ein, zwei rennomierte charties geben schon ziele von 5 dollar aus, fundamental vertretbar

dosto siehst du schon chancen, den ersten fuß in den markt zu stellen? ich hab immer die larry ellison statements im ohr die eine stabilisierung ankündigen und dann duch sequentiell schrumpfen...

[dosto]

12:04AM China bars CFSB from future deals-AWSJ (DE:876800, CSGKF) by Allen Wan
The Chinese government has barred Credit Suisse First Boston (DE:876800) (CSGKF) from future business deals after the investment bank hosted two overseas conferences attended by senior officials from rival Taiwan, the Asian Wall Street Journal reported Friday, citing CSFB executives. CSFB has been officially removed from the foreign underwriting team handling the multibillion-dollar share offering of China`s second-largest telecoms company China Unicom (CHU), the executives said. One of the executives said that the bank might also be dropped from two other potential underwriting deals in China. Beijing`s decision will have a major impact on CSFB`s plans in Asia. CSFB has said that the country would account for as much as half of the nearly $25 billion in equity offerings in Asia this year


nun mal aus ner anderen ecke.
da probt mal ein land seine power.
mal sehen ob die finazfuzzies spuren.

[dosto]

hallo gulliver

larry ist auch so eine nuß, dem glaub ich gar nichts,
wenn du den mal live gesehen hast, dann sagt dir diese
figur alles.
smart gesagt, das bekannte clever ist anwendbar,
dann die hand vor den mund
und
darf ich nicht schreiben, aber du kennst ja die
negierungen.
der mann ist nicht koscher, ein paar eigenschaften
kannst du selbst hinzufügen.
kurz gesagt ellison glaub ich rein gar nix.
nicht mal die bilanz.

gruß dosto

[dosto]

Top Financial News


08/31 12:55
Drug Recalls Prompt FDA to Slow Reviews, Consider Safety First
By Kim Dixon and Kristin Reed


Washington, Aug. 31 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. regulators are taking more time to approve new drugs amid evidence that they can`t do much short of a recall to control rare, life-threatening side effects discovered after a product reaches pharmacy shelves.

The review time for new drugs at the U.S. Food and Drug Administration slowed in 2000, and approvals this year are lagging last year`s pace. So far, 13 all-new drugs have been approved this year, down from 22 in the same period last year. The slowdown came after drugs including GlaxoSmithKline Plc`s Lotronex were pulled last year over sometimes-fatal side effects.

Those withdrawals, and another just this month of Bayer AG`s cholesterol drug Baycol, show the FDA can`t always manage risks involving drugs on the market with the tools it has, such as follow-up studies, label warnings and letters to doctors. Consequently, FDA staff members reviewing new drug applications may be giving more scrutiny to safety, agency officials say.

``The ability of Dear Doctor letters and labeling changes to influence physicians have been disappointing,`` said John Jenkins, director of the FDA`s pulmonary, metabolic and endocrinology drugs division. ``We have to take that into account ... and sometimes that might lead to requests for new data.``

After a speed-up of drug approvals in the late 1990s, the median review time for first-of-their-kind drugs rose for the first time in seven years to 15.6 months last year from 11.6 months in 1999.

``We may be at the beginning of a swing of the pendulum back,`` said Stephen Findlay, a health care analyst at the not-for- profit National Institute for Health Care Management.

Demands for Data

FDA demands for additional data have slowed several applications this year. In June, the agency asked Novartis AG, Europe`s third-largest drugmaker, to provide further information on a rare complication seen in trials of Zelnorm, a drug for irritable bowel disorders.

In July it asked for more studies of Xolair, an asthma drug Novartis developed with Genentech Inc., to reconfirm the drug`s safety. FDA officials rejected Pharmacia Corp.`s injectable painkiller in July, asking for data that may take 18 months to gather.

Drugmakers spend an average of $500 million to develop a new medication, and can be forced to cut profit projections, losing credibility with investors, when promised product introductions fall through.

For example, Novartis told investors drug sales growth would outpace competitors this year as it introduced five new medicines, only to have two of them, Zelnorm and Xolair, stall at the FDA. Novartis was expecting each to have annual sales of $1 billion, and the setbacks have contributed to a 15 percent drop in the company`s shares this year, making it the third worst performer on the 19-member Bloomberg Europe Pharmaceutical Index.

Swift Decisions

The agency can still speed approvals of first-of-a-kind and life-saving drugs. For example, approval of Novartis`s Gleevec leukemia drug in May came after the quickest drug review in the FDA`s history, just two and a half months. The agency isn`t rushing to clear me-too drugs, or treatments for diseases that aren`t life threatening, though.

``It`s pretty undeniable that the FDA has gotten more cautious,`` said Norm Fidel, who manages more than $2 billion in health-care mutual funds for Alliance Capital Management. ``The number of approvals in the last nine months is down 50 percent from a year ago.``

``Some people might call that being more conservative,`` Jenkins said. ``I would call it being responsible.``

The recent drug withdrawals were prompted by rare side effects that didn`t become evident until tens of thousands of patients had taken the medications.

Last year`s withdrawal of Warner-Lambert Co.`s diabetes drug Rezulin and GlaxoSmithKline`s Lotronex drug for irritable bowel syndrome followed failed attempts to reduce deaths by adding label warnings. Bayer AG pulled its Baycol cholesterol drug this month after it was linked to 52 deaths worldwide from a rare metabolic complication. Deaths persisted even after the label was reworded to warn of dangers of using higher doses of the drug.

Rising Recalls

The rate of recalls is rising, according to FDA data. Between 1971 and 1975, slightly more than 1 percent of all new drugs were later recalled for safety flaws. Between 1996 and 2000, that rate jumped to 3.75 percent.

That`s in line with a surge in the rate of new drug development. Throughout the 1970s, fewer than 100 new drugs were approved by the FDA, according to the agency. During the 1990s, more than 300 new drugs came to market.

Before withdrawing Rezulin last year, the FDA had strengthened warnings on the label and written to doctors urging them to test patients for liver failure. The drug was linked to 63 deaths from liver failure before it was taken off the market.

A recent FDA study, published in the Journal of the American Medical Association, said the Rezulin case demonstrates that FDA procedures are ineffective for ensuring drugs are used safely.

Assumption Needs Changing

``Labeling and Dear Doctor letters and the like didn`t result in a meaningful change in the way the drugs were used,`` said David Graham, the author of the study and associate director of science and marketing in the FDA`s post-marketing unit. ``The assumption that (they) will be effective . is in need of changing.``

With Baycol, physicians had known for years about the side effect, called rhabdomyolysis, and the label warned that combining Baycol with another drug is particularly dangerous, said Steven Nissen, a cardiologist at the Cleveland Clinic in Ohio.

Yet doctors continued to prescribe the drugs together, without checking for symptoms of rhabdomyolysis, the muscle disorder that led to the Baycol deaths, said Nissen, who also serves on the FDA advisory panel that reviews new heart drugs.

The Baycol episode shows the importance of caution at the FDA, Nissen said.

``I don`t know that there is going to be any official change in policy, but every experience I have with a catastrophic side effect that wasn`t foreseen makes me more cautious,`` he said.

[dosto]

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3:48PM Oracle`s CEO exercises $706M in options (ORCL) by Leticia Williams
Oracle Corp. (ORCL) co-founder and CEO, Lawrence Ellison exercised stock options worth $706 million during fiscal 2001, according to a proxy filed Friday with the SEC. The executive exercised options during the year which translated into more than 23 million shares of the company`s common stock. Meanwhile, Jeffrey Henley, the computer software company`s Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President, exercised options worth $86 million, or 2.5 million shares, during the year, according to the filing. Shares gained 18 cents to $12.18 in recent trading



der smarte ellison

hat es doch mal wieder geschafft auch im jahre
2001
dosto
im einkommen
knapp
zu schlagen

bravo mister ellison,
sie führen nun 5:0

gegen den kerl hab ich keine chance, zum zähneausreißen.

grrrrr

[dosto]

u-wau-waouoh

welch ein tag-lauter stolze zahlen heut

zuerst o,2 % verwaxtum, und der dow fängt an zu spurten,
15% der wirtschaft im sagenhaftem aufwärtstrend

dann ellison

aber dann
die geldvernichtungsmaschine stock market

leset!

3:52PM Wilishire: $839 billion lost in August by Julie Rannazzisi
A total of $839 billion in wealth was lost in the broad market during the month of August, using the Wilshire 500 ($TMW) as a proxy, according to Wilshire Associates in Los Angeles. The index is up 0.5 percent Friday but is down 6.1 percent for the month

[Gulliver]

hi senor dostino!

ja, ja, bereitet einem irgenwie kopfschmerzen wenn man den ganzen kram immer liest.

ich bin seit 2 wochen wieder im ländle und werd mich jetzt wieder häufiger melden (hoffentlich)

also in der ersten woche hatte ich circa 6 stunden täglich hardcore java programmierung bei nem computerinder.

der man ist in den 70ern nach amiland emigriert und hat echt was auf dem kasten: unterrichtet computer sciénce und electronic engineering - mal schauen vielleicht nächstes jahr ein besuch unsererseits - wäre echt geil!!!

also der hat sogar für sunprogrammierer unterricht gegeben;
hab ihn mal wegen seiner connecies zur company befragt und er sagt, daß die guten leute alle gehalten werden - die pflaumen fliegen raus, wärend java programmierer früher im endsemester schon verträge hatten dauerts jetzt bis drei monate

als ich ihn wegen der - von ihm stolz erwähnten arbeitslosenquote - darauf aufmerksam gemacht habe das 3 %der arbeitsfähigen amis im knast sitzen hat er mich ausgelacht!!!

wird die verschuldung jemals zurückgezahlt? klar!!! part of a business cycle so sein lapidarer kommentar

cu Gulliver

[dosto]

Absurd oder weitsichtig?

(gatrixx) "Ich glaube, die Top-100-Unternehmen der Nasdaq werden innerhalb der nächsten fünf Jahre verschwinden." Mit dieser kühnen Äußerung trieb John Chambers, Chef des Netzwerkausrüsters Cisco Systems, die Spekulationen nach der angekündigten Compaq-Übernahme durch Hewlett-Packard ins Absurde.
Nach den Worten Chambers wird die anhaltende Schwäche der Technologiebranche für eine rasante Konsolidierungswelle durch alle Segmente hinweg sorgen. Die Elefantenhochzeit in der Computerbranche sei für ihn nur der erste Schritt einer natürlichen Entwicklung. Firmen, die sich nicht an die neuen wirtschaftlichen Bedingungen und das schnellebige Internet-Zeitalter gewöhnen, werden Chambers zufolge verschwinden.

Ob er sein eigenes Unternehmen mit dazu rechne, sagte Chambers nicht. Cisco hatte Anfang August einen Einbruch des Quartalsgewinns von 99 Prozent bekanntgegeben. Gleichzeitig verringerte sich der Umsatz um ein Viertel. (sts)


05.09. - 17:33 Uhr

soll man dazu was schreiben.
eigentlich nur was ist das für ein typ der chambers?

[dosto]

hallo gulliver fein von dir zu hören

wird die verschuldung jemals zurückgezahlt? klar!!! part of a business cycle so sein lapidarer kommentar

das muß ich natürlich kommentieren, ein großer
deutscher (europäer) hegel oder kant, bin mir nicht sicher,
sagte mal:

man muß das Ganze akzeptieren, sonst bleibt einem auch kein Teil.

nun hoffen wir das dieser mensch und die amis es auch so sehen, sonst brauchen die kein sdi mehr, sondern ihre einzelnen teile ihrer kultur fliegen uns dann um die ohren.
laut chambers fliegen 100 nasdaq companies irgendwohin,
wohin ist wohl part of american business, vielleicht sehen
das die eliten als ganzes, die dummen werden wohl ne stange geld verlieren, sie sind dann wohl der bekannte amerikanische
part of cycle.

gruß dosto

[Groupier]

@ dosto

Chambers ist ein Schwätzer der hört sich gerne Reden. Angeblich über 200 öffentliche Vorträge 1999 !

Er representiert mehr als Fürst als das er das Unternehmen Cisco führt.

Und die Internetgemeinde hängt an den Lippen des einzig echten Propheten der Glasfaser-Lichtleiterwellen.

Seine Ergüsse können sehr Kursbewegend sein, und sind es immer noch.

mfg.

Groupier

[dosto]

da gebe ich dir recht

nur ich bin aktienkäufer und investor,
ich brauche eigentlich keine kultfigur, die nach vorne
und hinten blasen abgibt.
mir wäre ein ceo der knallhart über seine geschäfte berichtet, ohne starallüren schon lieber.
chambers kann ja zu mgm wechseln,
dann hab ich kein problem mehr, weil mich die entertainment und werbebranche nicht interessiert.
aber solange solche typen wie er , ellison, und strauss (jdsu) und die ciena fritzen, deren merkmal es allerdings ist,
lieber gar nichts zu sagen, und die investoren am langen arm verhungern zu lassen, uns versuchen zu vereiern,
solange werden wir beide wohl bei high tech ein problem haben, da wir andauernd mit der wahrheitsfindung beschäftigt
sind.
gruß dosto

[Gulliver]

Market Heros
Market`s heroes tell unpopular truths
Performing a priceless service as rich stocks slide

By Thom Calandra, CBS MarketWatch
Last Update: 4:04 PM ET Sept. 25, 2001

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) - Few Wall Street strategists, analysts, even pundits get honors for throwing water on high stock-market valuations.

Those who told the bear truth about overpriced stocks consistently questioned conventional wisdom these past 18 months. Their books, newsletters and reports were harsh realities delivered to a mostly disbelieving public:

Bernie Schaeffer and his senior quantitative analyst, Chris Johnson, kept the pulse of put-call open-interest ratios and volatility indicators that showed calm investors going like sheep over a cliff this summer. Johnson, making excellent calls on the expensive shares of Cisco Systems (CSCO: news, chart, profile) and Intel Corp. (INTC: news, chart, profile), also monitors stock strategists. Until last week, most of the Wall Street banks were calling for insanely high gains in the battered Standard & Poor`s 500 Index. Even now, with the strategists hurriedly reducing their index targets for the U.S. stock market, Johnson at Cincinnati-based Schaeffer`s Investment Research says the experts` projections are still as much as 40 percent above current levels. Adding insult to indury, several of the investment bank experts, led by Abby Cohen of Goldman Sachs, Mark Keeler at A.G. Edwards and Thomas McManus of Bank of America, are now telling clients to increase the share of stocks in their accounts.


Fred Hickey, publisher of The High-Tech Strategist in New Hampshire, not only was consistently down on stocks, he latched on to a brief January technology rally earlier this year, thus benefiting his readers. In February, Hickey, who has been lethally accurate this year after dismissing much of the 1998-2000 bull run, said there was a "zilch" chance of a technology recovery in this year`s second half. In his latest issue of Sept.3 he says, "Buying high P/E stocks and selling them higher is not a successful long-term investment strategy." He`s mystified by the free ride that investor are giving shares of computer company IBM (IBM: news, chart, profile). "All of the world`s major economies are sinking, yet we are expected to believe that the world`s leading computer company, IBM, will be unaffected. I`m not a believer," he writes.


David Tice of The Prudent Bear Fund puts his money where his skeptical views are. This year, his Texas-based fund (BEARX: news, chart, profile), thanks in large part to short-sale positions, has risen 37 percent against a 24 percent loss for those who own the Standard & Poor`s 500 Index. Tice sees further steep falls ahead for semiconductor companies, which have lost 53 percent of their value as a group in the past 52 weeks. Also, money manager Bill Fleckenstein in Seattle probably takes the cake for being negative on high-priced stocks for so long, even during the 1998-2000 boom years, that most folks probably stopped listening to him. If so, they abandoned Fleckenstein prematurely. Old-timers Martin Weiner and Charles Minter at the Comstock Capital Value Fund in New York have been buying put options, and shorting stocks, for years. The Gabelli & Co.-operated fund is up 46 percent since January and about 65 percent in the past 52 weeks.


Ravi Suria, now with hedge fund Duquesne Capital Management, used his training as a Lehman Bros. credit analyst to predict that most telecommunication companies would suffer years of sliding stock prices and even bankruptcy. Suria also heaped balance-sheet abuse on the Internet`s Amazon.com (AMZN: news, chart, profile). Greg Kyle at Pegasus Research also gets high marks for compiling his cash-burn data on Internet companies at a time when the group still had the favor of many investors.


Let`s not forget the pundits. No list would be complete without Alan Abelson, veteran writer for Barron`s weekly newspaper. The country`s economic output, Abelson writes, "will come up on the minus side this quarter and next and, not inconceivably, the opening three months of `02. Admirable as it is for corporations and investors alike to focus on the long term, ignoring the here and now and soon-to-be can prove extremely hazardous." Abelson also mercilessly downgraded all those who called for patriotic buying of American stocks in the wake of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, saying, "Patriotism . . . is the last refuge of scoundrels. It also occasionally can be the first resort of shills, not excluding those peddling stocks."


Kenneth Fisher, a Forbes magazine writer and California money manager, has slammed Nasdaq stocks every other week for more than a year. James Grant, editor of Grant`s Interest Rate Observer, has questioned Nasdaq valuations, the calculating of government inflation indexes and IBM shares, which are down 22 percent from a year ago and are one of the 30 stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The Red Herring`s Anthony B. Perkins and his brother, Michael Perkins, wrote "The Internet Bubble: Inside the Overvalued World of High-Tech Stocks -- And What You Need to Know to Avoid the Coming Shakeout," in November 1999, just as the industry`s stocks were going into hyperdrive.


On the Internet, TheStreet.com`s Herb Greenberg and Aaron L. Task (TSCM: news, chart, profile) get high marks for their daily vigilance and their abilities to parse the Wall Street hype. So do several lesser known daily and weekly writers and commentators, including TradingMarkets.com`s Dave Landry and B. Goran Yordanoff, a self-professed day-trader who has kept his audience largely in cash the past two years.


All economists should have the fortunate timing of Stanley B. Resor Professor of Economics Robert J. Shiller at Yale University. Shiller`s books, most recently "Irrational Exuberance" in 2000, document many of the factors that accelerate stock markets to insanely high levels, including baby-boom investors, a sloppy news media, herd-like behavior and cultural influences. Other economists who deserve credit include Ray C. Fair, who is also at Yale, and James K. Galbraith at the University of Texas.
With more than 4,800 domestic mutual funds down 20 percent or more this year, investors in greater numbers will be turning to the professionals who keep telling the bear truth about overpriced company shares.

Thom Calandra is Editor-in-Chief of CBS MarketWatch. Reporters Mike Tarsala and Bambi Francisco contributed to this report.

[L.St]

Also vielleicht gehöre ich ja nicht hierher und das geht mich ja auch nix an, aber oben steht Zeichen und da ruft mich doch gestern (der mich) so ein Bank Mensch an und will mir Rentenfonds verkaufen. Mir. Jetzt. Bei Dax 8000 hingen überall Plakate wieviel Aktienfonds bringen. Ist ja noch nicht erwähnenswert. Heute krieg ich Post. Soll AnleiheDax kaufen. Hab ich noch nie erlebt, daß ne Bank was verkaufen will, was Kohle bringt. Nur immer Ladenhüter. Sterbende Gäule. Lo

[dosto]

ziemlich früh aufgewacht die bondis,


habe aber schon anfang 2000 mich und mein klientel

in folgende wkn nr. gejagt

114242
114243
114244

nun schau mal die charts an,
die sorgen im augenblick für sehr viel geschäft für mich,
denn allein die flüsterprogande, dieser nicht verlierer,
und in 2 jahren frührenter, sorgen für eine angenehme
auslastung meiner tätigkeit,
ist aber eher schon daran gedacht für leutchen die geld haben
und langsam ans aussteigen und nicht so sehr ans aufbauen
denken, außer du bist 35 und baust dir das berühmte
dosto-perpeteum mobile auf.
aber bitte nicht anfragen, denn da kommt dann mein geschäftsinn zum tragen (auf gut deutsch, hier gehts an speck,
will meinen beratungsgebühr ist zu zahlen,
wenn du clever bist, kannst aber aus obigen zahlen auch allein den weg finden, wie schrieb IBM immer
THINK, nicht schlecht her specht,

gruß dosto
von hause aus ein bondhändler

der aber nicht mehr so bullish auf bonds ist,
da er schon vor 12-18 monaten wach war, und das wetterleuchten kommen sah.
denke eigentlich eher daran, die gewinne anzuschauen,
zum abziehen ist es wohl noch zu früh, sie werden wohl noch locker 6 monate laufen,
und weiter denk ich im moment nicht

[Gulliver]

Yen Declines vs Dollar as Japan Sells Currency for Sixth Time
By John Beresford-Peirse


London, Sept. 27 (Bloomberg) -- The yen fell to its lowest level in nine days against the dollar as Japan sold its currency for the sixth time in two weeks in a bid to support exporters` earnings and foster growth.

Japan`s currency dropped to as low as 119.35 per dollar, its weakest since Sept 13, from 117.91 yesterday. This is its fifth day of losses against the dollar and the yen`s longest losing streak this year. Against the euro, it fell to 109.86 from 108.81, its lowest level since Aug. 27.

Japanese policy makers have few options besides weakening the yen to try to steer the second-biggest economy away from recession. Interest rates are already near zero, and government spending is constrained by debt amounting to about 130 percent of gross domestic product.

``They`re really serious about weakening the yen, which makes sense because they have no other policy options,`` said Stefan Schilbe, an economist at HSBC Trinkaus in Dusseldorf. Japan will probably keep intervening every day until the yen weakens to 120 per dollar, he said.

The currency recently extended its losses after the European Central Bank said it bought euros and sold yen on Japan`s behalf for a third time this week.

Japan has been ramping up its yen sales ahead of the end of its fiscal half-year tomorrow, when Japanese companies often buy yen to bring home overseas profits, traders said. A weaker currency would bolster their profits when converted into yen.

Timing

``It seems Japan wants to push it down as much as possible today, as the fiscal half-year is ending,`` said Toshiyuki Takamatsu, a foreign-exchange dealer at ABN Amro Bank in Tokyo.

The yen, which has only dropped 1.2 percent against the dollar since the central bank`s actions began, may accelerate its decline once the reporting period is over, as it`s worked against the BOJ`s efforts to weaken the currency, said HSBC Trinkaus` Schilbe.

In the next couple of months, the poor outlook for Japan`s flagging economy will itself ``propel the yen lower,`` he said. The BOJ`s Tankan survey of business confidence, to be released Monday, is expected to show a drop to the lowest level in more than two years this quarter, according to a Bloomberg News survey.

The Tankan ``will show just how weak the Japanese economy is,`` said Robin Aspinall, an economist at Teather & Greenwood Ltd. ``It`s falling into the abyss and it`s in a much worse state than the U.S. economy.``

Japanese gross domestic product shrank 0.8 percent in the second quarter and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News predict another contraction this quarter, which would put the economy in recession.

The Bank of Japan had bought about $20 billion as of yesterday, since it first bought dollars for yen on Sept. 17, according to UBS Warburg AG.

Foreign Sales

The yen`s 5 percent gain against the dollar this quarter may erode earnings of Japanese exporters, which generate 10 percent of the nation`s economic output. Finance Minister Masajuro Shiokawa has said he wants the yen weaker than 117.

Honda, Japan`s No. 2 automaker, said it loses 14 billion yen ($120 million) in operating profit each time the dollar declines 1 yen. The company based its earning projections on an average dollar rate of 116 yen.

``Exporters have been suffering and a stronger yen makes it even harder for them,`` said Haydn Davies, a strategist at Barclays Global Investors, which manages $801 billion.

Japan is also weakening the currency to try and stem price declines by making imports more expensive, traders said.

``The BOJ now is trying to weaken the yen down to 120 yen level to prevent Japan`s biggest problem -- deflation,`` said Shohgo Nagaya, a foreign exchange manager at Nomura Trust and Banking Co. in Tokyo. ``It`s going to be more difficult for investors to justify selling the dollar.``

ECB Decision

The euro was little changed at 92.01 U.S. cents from 92.29 after a report showed French manufacturers were more pessimistic this month than at any time in more than five years as the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks in the U.S. threatened to deepen a global economic slump.

Only one of 20 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News expect the European Central Bank to lower its key rate from 3.75 percent today. The decision is expected at 12.45 p.m. London time.

The dollar may decline later today after a report that`s expected to show the number of U.S. workers applying for state unemployment benefits probably rose by the biggest margin since July last week, analysts said.

New jobless claims are expected to show a 48,000 increase to 435,000, according to a Bloomberg News survey. Citigroup Inc. expects the number to rise to 500,000, which would be the highest since July 1992.

Investors are waiting to see how the U.S. will respond to the attacks before deciding the dollar`s fate, said Sonja Hellemann, a currency strategist at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein.

[Gulliver]

Nach Ansicht des Vermögensverwalters und Fondsmanagers Marc Faber von Marc Faber Limited ist das Desaster an den Börsen noch nicht beendet. "Die amerikanischen Aktien können sich noch halbieren, zumindest halte ich dies für möglich", sagte Faber in einem Gespräch mit dem "Handelsblatt" (HB/Donnerstagausgabe). Faber empfiehlt deutschen Anlegern Euro-Staatsanleihen. Einen Teil des Geldes würde er für die Asienbörsen, Gold und Goldaktien reservieren. Fabers Börsenskeptis für Amerika speist sich dem Bericht zufolge aus der Kombination von immer noch hohen Bewertungen mit einer erwarteten Rezession.

"Bis vor kurzem stützten die Konsumenten die Wirtschaft, aber damit ist es vorbei. Die Zinssenkungen helfen zwar, aber der Gewinnausblick für die Unternehmen bleibt schlecht", so Faber weiter. Verlustminimierung sei das Gebot der Stunde. Bessere Noten bekommen laut Zeitung einige "biliige Asienbörsen" wie Indonesien, Thailand, Malaysia und die Philippinen. Hier wittere Faber Chancen in den Bereichen landwirtschaftliche Produkte, Nahrungsmittel, Zigaretten und Tourismus.

[dosto]

ja das ist gut für meinen alten kumpel marc,
philippinen, da ist er zuhaus, da kennt er sich aus,
nur dosto halt nicht.
geld geb ich ihm keins , dem schlingel, aber einen trinken gehen,
das könnten wir schon mal wieder.
bloß wo is er, lange nichts mehr von ihm gehört.

[Gulliver]

alter Angeber.........grins

wir gehen mal joggen, dann kannst du mal was lernen

[Gulliver]

$340 gold seen by influential analyst
Mitsui`s long-time bear Smith sees positive signs

By Thom Calandra, CBS MarketWatch
Last Update: 2:43 PM ET Sept. 27, 2001




NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - Andy Smith, a veteran London-based metals analyst, sees the price of gold hitting $340 an ounce in the next several months.



If Smith at Mitsui Global Precious Metals is correct, it would mark the first time since June 1997 that gold has been as high as the mid-$300 range.

"I`m not a loose cannon," said Smith from London, where he has covered metals - and been mostly negative on gold - for 14 years. "Gold is clearly on death`s door with the lack of interest, but these are not normal times."

Smith`s call for a higher metal comes amid Wall Street and European signs that professionals may be ready to change their tune about the battered metal, which is attempting to break the $300-an-ounce level. The price of an ounce of gold in the spot market Thursday was little changed at about $290 in New York.

Smith points to increased buying of gold coins in London in the wake of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. There are reports of increased buying of Swiss gold bars as well, he said Thursday. But it is aggressive hedge funds, long absent from the gold market, that will take gold`s price as much as 15 percent higher in coming months, he says.

On the equity front, bullion analyst John Reade at UBS Warburg in London has been talking up the metal in recent days, according to Bill Murphy, founder of rabidly pro-gold Web site LeMetropoleCafe.com. Reade`s comments may have convinced UBS Warburg equity analyst Brian MacArthur to revise his rating on Newmont Mining (NEM: news, chart, profile) this week to a "buy" from a "hold."

The UBS Warburg investment bank also raised its gold-price target to a year-end $293 an ounce from $270. The metal commands more of a risk premium after this month`s terrorist attacks on American soil, the bank said.

Large U.S. mutual funds, some 90 percent of them with negative returns this year, are also showing more of a willingness to increase their weighting of gold mining stocks, such as Newmont Mining and Homestake Mining (HM: news, chart, profile), in their portfolios. The Vanguard Precious Metals Fund (VGPMX: news, chart, profile), for instance, now includes seven gold miners in its top 10, as of Aug. 31. (See the Aug. 31 holdings.) Earlier this year, the fund had just three gold mining stocks in its top 10 and relied instead on platinum, palladium and diamond producers. (See the Jan. 1 holdings.)

Smith`s comments, sent to Mitsui`s institutional clients in the past several days, are already turning heads in the gold trade.

"Andy is a very visible and well known professional in the gold financial markets," said Cheryl Martin, vice president of North American investor relations for Gold Fields Ltd. of South Africa, the third-largest gold producer in the world. "Smith has been a consistent bear as the central banks continued selling into the existing gold price weakness. To have him change his outlook, so drastically, is a definite indicator to all of us in this business," Martin said Thursday.

Ross Norman at TheBullionDesk.com in London said it was "rather shocking to see Andy in the bulls` camp."

Next week, top executives from Gold Fields (GOLD: news, chart, profile), Newmont, Homestake, Barrick Gold (ABX: news, chart, profile) and several dozen other large producers will meet at the Investment Forum gathering of metals executives in Denver. The event, sponsored by The Denver Gold Group, brings fund managers together with executives and bankers. They are sure to be discussing Smith`s comments.

At Mitsui, Smith in an interview said there`s been very little reason for him to talk up gold`s case in the past decade. Before Mitsui, Smith worked for 11 years at UBS in London. During much of that time, gold prices have been declining as investment demand for the metal shriveled.

Smith points out that large holders of gold futures contracts on the Comex commodities exchange in New York held a net long position of just 91 tons of the metal - which he called "modest" against a backdrop of global financial flows that surpass trillions of dollars a day in currency, equity and bond markets.



"Gold has long stopped competing with the Swiss franc and other investments," Smith said. "But it doesn`t have to compete in that league. All it needs now is one or two (hedge) funds that are willing to earn some good returns."

He points to Julian Robertson`s massive Tiger Investment hedge funds, which spent years building up the case for - and their position in - palladium, a metal that has benefited in recent years from Russian supply problems. "Over a three-year period they built positions in palladium futures, options, even (reputedly) equity, and established physical deals with suppliers and end users," Smith points out. "Illiquid, boring, work-a-day palladium was metamorphosed from under $100 in 1996 to $1,100 (an ounce), after Tiger had closed its positions, in February this year."

Gold, says Smith, "has been relegated to a low echelon in the investing universe." A wave of central bank sales - and even the unwillingness of the usually pro-gold Swiss to recommend gold in international portfolios - sent the price of the safe-haven metal earlier this year to a 12-year low.

"It is surreal that I have to argue this since I have been a dogged bear all my career," says Smith. The analyst sees a temporary decline in physical demand for the metal in the United States, where jewelry sales might slump this holiday season because of gloomy consumers reacting to the terrorist attacks.

Smith, who looks at prospects for the actual metal and not the gold-mining stocks, also sees barriers in the form of ignorance by banks and individuals who have "forgotten how to invest in gold." Yet he is confident gold will soon break the $300 barrier, which has held in the immediate aftermath of the terrorist attacks two weeks ago. The last time gold prices rose above $300 an ounce was February 2000.

"I just don`t underestimate the ingenuity of funds to make money in something like gold," Smith says about international hedge funds. After gold surpasses $340 an ounce, as soon as three months, individuals and institutions are likely to jump on the "momentum" bandwagon, he says.

History of a move

Some eight years ago, hedge fund manager George Soros and Sir James Goldsmith of London, using a combination of aggressive options contract buying, futures trading and equity investments, helped to push gold prices above $340. It took four years for the price of the metal to come back down to that level, when a Federal Reserve economics paper suggested central banks might rationally sell all their gold.

"You won`t need a Soros or a Goldsmith now, just a smart fund or two, because expectations for the metal are so low," Smith said.

Some 15 of the world`s largest central banks regularly sell about 400 tons a year of gold, which is then used by both producers and bullion banks in a market dominated by forward sales, gold lending and other practices. The lending and short-sales tied to central bank sales are said by industry analysts to depress the metal`s price.

Smith`s comments, in a weekly report titled "A Probable Bull," prompted other calls for higher prices. "You`d have to be nuts not to be positive on gold in the current environment," said Robert Bishop at Gold Mining Stock Report in Lafayette, Calif.

"It would be easy to laugh at Andy," said John Brimelow, a strategist at Donald & Co., a New York City investment bank. "But the fact is that he has been at least as good as anyone else in the past decade at forecasting gold prices, and he is clearly a great deal brighter than most in the field."

[Gulliver]

#14 von NfDrag 28.09.01 23:34:40 4528110
ich habs mal rauskopiert aus dem germathread
COT-Daten:

S&P-Shorts runter von -65.000 auf .49.000

DOW-Longs runter von 13.300 auf 12.200

Nasdaq-Shorts gleichbleibend bei -10.000

Im Nasdaq-Mini sind die shorts allerdings runter von -32.000 auf -6.000

Nikkei-shorts gleichbleibend bei -3.500

Gold-shorts hoch von -49.000 auf -58.000
Das ist erneut nahe 5-Jahres-Hoch! Wahnsinn das gold trotzdem weitersteigt.

Silber-shorts hoch von -12.000 auf -25.000

Öl von shorts -10.000 auf long 28.000
Den Call hätte man holen sollen.

jaja die junx versuchen alles! obs hilft??

[dosto]

Das ist erneut nahe 5-Jahres-Hoch! Wahnsinn das gold trotzdem weitersteigt


wieso-kann man die shorties nicht aushebeln,
und wieviel von den haben auch long-positionen
und sichern nur ab?

[dosto]

ziehe
15 sp 500 shorts von dosto ab, dann sinds schon wieder weniger, donnerstag gecovert, werden dort wohl noch nicht drin sein.

ein kumpel von mir hat sich an denen dußlig und dämlich verdient.

[Gulliver]

moin, moin

also es heißt ja immer das die commercials den markt machen aber bei gold hat sich das absolute gegenteil gezeigt, commercial short ist der perfekte kontraindikator.

deren shorteindeckungen haben den preis bereits schon gestiegenen preis häufig erst richtig nach oben gepusht.

halt mal nen chart von goldpreis und commercial long/short gegeneinander

cu Gulliver

[Gulliver]

Swissair ist am Ende

Gestern noch war sich die Fluglinie unsicher, ob sie die Oktober-Gehälter ihrer Angestellten bezahlen kann. Heute heißt es in Schweizer Medienberichten bereits, die Swissair werde in Teilkonkurs gehen.

Zürich - An diesem Montag müssen 200 Millionen Franken (264 Millionen Mark) an die belgische Luftfahrtgesellschaft Sabena überwiesen werden, an der die Swissair mit knapp 50 Prozent beteiligt ist. Dieses Geld ist derzeit nicht vorhanden.
Das ganze Wochenende gab es Krisensitzungen zur Rettung der Luftgesellschaft mit 72.000 Beschäftigten. Nach Informationen der "SonntagsZeitung" soll die Swissair in Teilkonkurs gehen, die überlebensfähigen Teile aber von ihrer Tochter Crossair aufgefangen werden. An der Regionalfluglinie mit Sitz in Basel ist die Swissair mit 70,4 Prozent beteiligt.

Swissair-Chef Mario Corti hatte bereits eingeräumt, dass der die Oktober-Löhne wegen des Liquiditätsengpasses nicht mehr garantieren kann. In Medienberichten vom Sonntag hieß es, das Sanierungspaket der Swissair würde 12 Milliarden Franken kosten. Die Swissair-Holding soll sogar 17 Milliarden Franken Schulden haben.

Allein durch die Ausfälle seit den Attentaten in den USA am 11. September fehlten 65 Millionen Franken in der Kasse. Die von der Credit Suisse First Boston, der Deutschen Bank und der City Bank in Aussicht gestellte Kreditlinie von einer Milliarde Franken stehe wegen der unsicheren Geschäftslage nicht zur Verfügung, sagte Corti in Interviews.

[mr007]

moin moin,
die cot-daten sind schon absoluter wahnsinn und ich muß ehrlich gestehen, daß ich nicht in der lage bin die akt. situation halbwegs einzuschätzen! aber die zeichen der zeit deuten darauf hin, daß ein put auf z.b. die deutsche bank nicht verkehrt sein kann, den auch die äußerungen/forderungen von hr. breuer nach staatlicher hilfe!!! sind sehr verdächtig!
grübel grübel ciao mr007

[Gulliver]

hi james,

laßt doch endlich mal die unsinnige optionsscheinzocke; das ist ein spiel mit ungleichen gegnern...

die werden nicht aus reiner nächstenliebe emmitiert

die insties sind mit 80 tausend short und mit 30 short - die zahlen der nächsten woche abwarten

tech is dead - gold rules

nun ein artikel den ich für hervorragend geschrieben halte, da er nicht nur reine fakten zusammenträgt sondern eine blick ins reale geschehen gibt:

The Last Big Bubble
-- September 26, 2001

I started working on Wall Street when I was ten years old, helping my father at his investment advisory company. Then, when I was 25, I started my own firm, Weiss Research, and he started worked for me -- as "Senior Consultant." It`s hard to believe that was exactly thirty years ago last month.

Dad was a great resource. He was probably the only investment advisor in the world who made a fortune in the Crash of `29 ... and then lived to do it AGAIN, with me, in the Crash of `87.

Before he passed away, we talked at length about the speculative bubbles in the world -- such as the Asian bubble, the tech stock bubble, the worldwide real estate bubble, and one of the greatest bubbles of all: the U.S. economy and blue-chip companies. At the time, the Asian bubble was already bursting. We agreed it would be just a matter of time before the others did the same.

Now that time has come.

Unfortunately, I can`t tell Dad all about it in person. But I CAN tell you ...


World Trade Center Disaster Pops The Largest Bubble of All

On September 11, nineteen fanatic terrorists broke America`s heart. But even as we continue to grieve for our fallen countrymen and women, the second devastating impact of that contemptible deed is being felt -- on the world economy.

The unsettling new environment guarantees that we are about to experience more than an economic slowdown ... more than a mere recession. We are about to witness the deepest stock market crash and depression since the 1930s.

Please don`t misunderstand: Things will not fall straight down. The most powerful institutions and central banks in the world will do everything in their power to prop up their economies and stimulate temporary stock market rallies.

But their efforts are a drop in the bucket compared to the trillions that had already been lost in stocks around the world. Even before the Twin Towers fell on September 11 ...
THE ASIAN BUBBLE was a distant memory. The Nikkei had lost an incredible 75% of its peak value.


THE TECH STOCK BUBBLE was in shambles. The Nasdaq was down 66%, $5 trillion in wealth destroyed.


THE WORLDWIDE REAL ESTATE BUBBLE was ending too. In Japan, prime real estate was selling for a meager ONE-SIXTH of its peak value.
All this BEFORE the terrorist attacks on September 11. But one giant bubble was still standing: The core of the great American economy, held up by just one thin thread -- the confidence of the American consumer.

By early September, the American consumer was living in an increasingly smaller and more lonely world, shielded from reality by credit cards, home equity loans, a couple of SUVs, and the nearest shopping malls.

And, strangely, until late August, consumers were still spending freely despite the bad economic news. Home sales were holding firmly. Retail sales were still OK. Consumers were the last hope for the American economy.

But all that ended when the Twin Towers collapsed. The thin thread of consumer confidence was cut -- irreversibly and irretrievably severed.

Everywhere in America today, consumer confidence is gone. Seven out of 10 Americans are fearful, depressed, or terrified. They feel powerless to restore their sense of physical security. So they are scrambling to restore their feeling of FINANCIAL security, to somehow build a cushion to fall back on during the coming hard times.

Problem: Right now, most Americans HAVE NO CASH. They`ve been living from hand to mouth for years. In the past, whenever they needed cash, they just grabbed the nearest credit card ... or took out still another loan on their home.

No more. Now, many feel a growing pressure, even a compulsion, to sell something -- anything. Stocks. Property. Goods.

This past weekend, we talked to automobile dealers here in Palm Beach County, Florida. Even though GM and Ford are offering ZERO percent financing for new cars, the dealers are getting no takers. None. Zilch.

Yes, they ARE getting a lot of phone calls. But the calls are from customers who want to SELL their cars -- not to buy. Many families in this area have two cars for transportation. Plus, they also have one or two EXTRA cars for leisure, fun, or just conspicuous consumption. And Palm Beach County is not unique. It`s the same in key areas all over the USA.

The CEOs up in Detroit and the economists up in New York figured that, once someone buys a car, that`s it. It`s off the market. They forgot that the United States has the largest used car market in the world. They never imagined that, instead of consumers making net purchases, you could see them unleashing net SALES.

And don`t forget the mass selling still coming in the stock market. Last week, many investors called their brokers to sell. But they didn`t want to seem "unpatriotic." So they mumbled sheepishly that they were doing it "only because they had to" -- only because they "needed the CASH."

Or the brokers called THEM, asking for more margin money. Like the Bass brothers who got a margin call to sell 135 million shares ($2 billion) of Disney. Brace yourself. This is just the beginning of the forced liquidations in the stock market -- to raise desperately needed cash.

Back here in Palm Beach Gardens, where I live, an associate called a handy man this week to give him a small job. The man was practically in tears with gratitude. All his other jobs had been cancelled. He was completely out of cash. He had no idea where his next dollar was going to come from.

In New York, four Broadway shows have closed down. Not just for a few days. Forever! They were out of cash.

The leading airlines in America were equally cashless. They were estimating losses of $2.5 billion for the year before the September 11 tragedy. Now, they say their losses in 2001 will be many times larger. They asked Mr. Bush and Congress for close to $25 billion; they`re getting "only" $15 billion. But giving them money is like throwing salt into the sea. Even after 115,000 layoffs and even after flight bookings begin to pick up, they`ll still be running way below capacity. If that continues, the $15 billion will be gone like a puff of smoke.

I`ve dug back into the history of America`s 10 largest great corporations -- AT&T, Ford, GM, GE, etc. -- and found that, before the Crash of 1929, they used to keep as much as $2 in cash on hand for every dollar of current liabilities (bills and debts coming due within 12 months). Now, I see many of those same companies are down to a dime -- one measly alloy dime -- on the dollar. Nearly all American individuals and institutions are equally cashless.

This has been true for a few years. The difference now is that they`re desperate to GET to cash, but don`t know how. That`s the sea change we are now witnessing. You can already hear the sound of millions of American consumers slamming their wallets shut.

Americans will unite behind the President and rally for the country. But will they buy a new gas-guzzling SUV every year? Take luxury fly-away vacations every summer? Gleefully charge their credit cards and go deeper and deeper into debt?

No, those days are gone. Mark my words: It`s going to be many, many long years before we see another wave of consumer spending like the one that had energized this economy before the events of September 11.
Your Financial Security Has Never Been In Greater Danger!

You must take action to prepare yourself for ALL the impacts of this crisis -- not just on your investments, but on your home and family, your job, business or retirement, your insurance, and your savings accounts. That`s my life`s work: Helping to keep my clients safely and profitably invested in tough times. Here`s what I suggest you do right now:

FIRST, get most of your cash money to TRUE safety as soon as possible. Don`t accept second best. Go for the "Cadillac of safety" in the investment world -- U.S. Treasury bills, 100% guaranteed, with no limit, by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government. Investing in U.S. Treasury bills is not only the best thing for you and your family; it`s best for the country as well, helping to finance all the government`s efforts to make America more secure.

You can buy Treasury bills directly from the U.S. Treasury Department with their "Treasury Direct" program (800-722-2678; www.publicdebt.treas.gov/sec/secomtd.htm). Or you can buy them through a Treasury-only money market fund such as American Century Capital Preservation Fund (800-345-2021), Dreyfus 100% U.S. Treasury Fund (800-645-6561), Fidelity Spartan U.S. Treasury Fund (800-544-8888), or U.S. Global Treasury Security Cash Fund (800-873-8637). Also, consider our own Weiss Treasury Only Money Fund (800-289-8100).

Ignore the low yields for now. You`ll get the higher yields when interest rates shoot back up. For now, just be happy that your money is SAFE!

SECOND, get out of the stock market. I have shouted my warnings from the rooftops. Beginning in early 2000, I mailed five million letters to investors headlining "The Coming Internet Apocalypse," the "Coming Nasdaq Collapse," and "Expect Dow 5000 and Nasdaq 800." I warned you about this well before it began.

But if you didn`t act on my advice for some or all of your portfolio, I cannot blame you. Nearly all of Wall Street and nearly all investment advisors in the world were telling you to do exactly the opposite. If you wanted to sell, they told you to stand pat. If you wanted to stand pat, they told you to buy more. I assume you`re not listening to them any more. Good.

No matter what, IT`S STILL NOT TOO LATE TO GET OUT. The Dow is still not far from its all-time highs. Even if you sell at Dow 8000, that`s FAR better than selling at DOW 5000 where I think this freight train is headed next ... or DOW 3500, which could be the next express stop after that.

You say: "But I can`t sell now after the worst one-week decline since the 1930s! I want to wait for a nice, big, fat rally before I start selling."

Good point. But who knows for sure whether this week`s rally is your last chance to get out or not? My advice:
--> Sell 50% of your stocks right now, regardless of your hopes for a rally.

--> Then when you get a major rally -- whether from these levels or from lower levels -- sell the other 50%.
"But we can`t afford to take the loss," say many investors. My answer: That`s a myth. The loss is already a historical fact. The only way to evaluate your portfolio is to mark it to market every day, just like the SEC requires brokers, banks, and mutual funds to do.

"But we can`t afford to take the profit," say other investors, concerned about capital gains taxes. That`s another myth. The tax man is your ever-present partner. He will be with you now, before you die, and even after. Your portfolio never was -- and never will be -- worth more than its value NET of capital gains taxes. So as far as taxes are concerned, it makes little difference whether you sell now or later.

The only thing that really counts is the answer to this simple question: Is the market going up? Or is the market going down? If the market is going down, you should sell. Period.

Right now, it`s going down. Obviously. So, I have three instructions for you: Sell. SELL. S-E-L-L. Sell your stocks that are in the loss column. Sell your stocks that are in the profit column. Sell the stocks you have at your broker or in mutual funds. Sell the stocks and stock mutual funds in your 401(k) or IRA. Sell tech stocks, blue chips, utilities, common, preferred. It doesn`t matter where they are. Just SELL -- half now, half on a good rally.

THIRD, consider a few special exceptions -- select gold mining companies, for example. But limit your holdings to a maximum of 10% of your invested assets.

FOURTH, turn your attention to strategies that can potentially make you huge profits from this crash. And when you do, be sure to rid yourself of any lingering feelings of "guilt" that others might try to lay upon you. Getting rich yourself is the best way to make your country rich and strong financially.

That`s exactly what my father did back in 1929. He borrowed $500 from his mother; and when the market rallied in early 1930, he used the money to sell short the stocks he felt would be most vulnerable to the global decline he saw coming. By the time the market bottomed, he had $100,000. There he was, in his early 20s and already a very rich man, while the veteran Wall Street pros all around him had lost their shirts!

But that`s only half the story. The other side of the story unfolded when the stock market hit rock bottom.

Here`s how Dad describes it, posthumously, in a chapter of my book, The Great Money Panic ...

"It was Friday, March 3, 1933. We went straight to our brokerage firm`s main offices downtown. We didn`t stop at the midtown branch. We wanted to get our orders in to the man who talked directly to the floor traders. We bought everything we could lay our hands on. We bought GM, AT&T, GE, and Sears for pennies on the dollar.

"The tape barely moved, it was so dead. No more than 350,000 - 400,000 shares of stock were traded that day. That`s less volume than what typically trades in just one large transaction today. But that didn`t stop us. We just kept right on buying.

"The order clerk looked at us as if we were from another world. `How come you guys are buying?` he asked. `You`re the only ones!`

"We didn`t tell him. It was none of his business. By the time the day was out, we had bought thousands of shares of stock for ourselves and for our clients, at bargain basement prices. As a matter of fact, they were just about the lowest they had fallen in the entire century."

It was this kind of buying -- by the few who got rich from the crash -- that helped our nation recover.

You can do the same again now. In fact, you can actually do better. Because in Dad`s time, the only way to get rich was to take unlimited risks, risks that could wipe you out of house and home. Today, with put options, you can profit from the decline with risk that is strictly limited to the small amounts you invest. That way, you never endanger your keep-safe funds or your other assets.

But your first order of business is to GET TO SAFETY! Then, focus on staking out a position to profit from the crash with a modest portion of your funds.


cu Gulliver

[mr007]

hi gulliver,
ist ein kleines mißverständnis, wie schon geschrieben, ich hab momentan keinen plan und hab nur laut gedacht, bevor ich mit os handle analysiere ich doppelt und dreifach, gibt es dann immer noch größere zweifel lass ich die finger von!
ciao mr007

[Gulliver]

[Gulliver]

infinion[.com?]

zumindest dem momentanen geschäftsgebahren nach könnte das auch ne internetklitsche sein:

mein k und l dozent würde sagen " da iss die ..... aber am dampfen"

..für 8 bucks fertigen und für einen verkaufen - geiles geschäft

aber lest selbst


Höchste Finanznot

Riesige Verluste zehren die ohnehin knappen Reserven des Chipherstellers Infineon auf. Infineon-Chef Schumacher, einst Liebling der Börse, muss die Zahlungsunfähigkeit fürchten.


Vor vier Wochen dachte Ulrich Schumacher, dass es schlimmer nicht mehr kommen könne. Sein Münchner Chipunternehmen Infineon sah er als Opfer der "mit Abstand ernstesten Krise", die es in der kurzen Geschichte der Halbleiter-Technologie bisher gegeben habe.
Es kam schlimmer, viel schlimmer. Und das Schlimmste steht Schumacher möglicherweise erst noch bevor: Die Terrorangriffe auf das New Yorker World Trade Center begruben alle Hoffnungen auf ein reges Weihnachtsgeschäft mit Handys und PC und auf einen baldigen Aufschwung der US-Konjunktur.

Seitdem rätselt die Branche, ob Infineon die Krise als unabhängiges Unternehmen überstehen wird.

Vorige Woche musste Schumacher, einst Liebling der Börsianer, mit ansehen, wie seine Aktie auf den mit Abstand niedrigsten Wert von 12,10 Euro fiel. Nach dem Börsengang mit einem Emissionspreis von 35 Euro war die Aktie im vergangenen Jahr auf über 90 Euro gestiegen.

Vergebens versuchte sich Schumacher gegen den freien Fall zu stemmen. Seine drastischen Maßnahmen nahmen die Börsianer aber nur als weiteren Beleg für den Ernst der Lage. Wie verzweifelt musste ein Unternehmensführer sein, der nicht nur 5000 Stellen, sondern auch noch die geplanten Investitionen von 2,5 Milliarden auf 0,9 Milliarden Euro zusammenstreicht? "Infineon spart auf Kosten der Zukunft", kommentierte das "Handelsblatt".


Um mindestens zwei Quartale, so meinen die Konjunkturforscher, werde der Terroranschlag den erhofften Wirtschaftsaufschwung verzögern - Monate, in denen die Siemens-Tochter des forschen Jungmanagers und Hobby-Rennfahrers Schumacher an den Rand einer Existenzkrise geraten könnte.

Zurzeit jedenfalls legt Schumacher bei jedem Chip, den er verkauft, kräftig drauf. Zehn Dollar kostete noch im September 2000 ein 64-Megabit-Speicher. Inzwischen werden Speicherchips - Produktionskosten: fast sieben Dollar - für eineinhalb Dollar geradezu verramscht.

Bei geschätzten Verlusten von 500 bis 600 Millionen Euro pro Quartal ist die Substanz des jungen Unternehmens schnell aufgebracht. Der Elektrokonzern Siemens hatte seine Chiptochter Infineon erst im vergangenen Jahr, auf dem Höhepunkt des Aktien- und Chip-Booms, an die Börse gebracht. Der Erlös floss in die Siemens-Kasse - Infineon erhielt nichts. So wurde der Chiphersteller ohne ausreichendes finanzielles Polster in die Freiheit entlassen.

Schon im Juli musste sich Schumacher deshalb über eine Kapitalerhöhung 1,5 Milliarden Euro an der Börse besorgen - angesichts der allgemeinen Börsenflaute ein gewagtes Unternehmen. Fast 700 Millionen Euro brachte ihm der Verkauf von Unternehmensteilen. Das, so hoffte Schumacher, würde reichen, die Krise zu überstehen.

Diese Rechnung hielten Branchenkenner schon damals für allzu optimistisch. Nach dem New Yorker Attentat ist sie vollkommen Makulatur.

Das Sparpaket aber, das Schumacher vorige Woche notgedrungen nachschob und das insgesamt noch einmal eine Milliarde Euro bringen soll, geht an die Substanz. Bisher sollte die Umstellung im Werk Dresden auf die so genannte 300-Millimeter-Wafer-Produktion, mit der Speicherchips um ein Drittel billiger produziert werden können, von Sparmaßnahmen verschont bleiben.

In höchster Finanznot will Schumacher jetzt auch das modernste seiner Werke in Dresden deutlich kürzer halten. Die Kapazitäten für die Produktion der neuen Technologie sollen aus Kostengründen langsamer als geplant hochgefahren werden.

Das könnte sich, so meinen Analysten, bitter rächen, wenn die Nachfrage nach Chips eines Tages wieder anzieht.

Doch ob Infineon bis dahin noch ein Unternehmen auf dem Weg in die Selbständigkeit ist, wird in der Branche mittlerweile bezweifelt. Beim derzeitigen Schnäppchen-Kurs - der Börsenwert ist auf unter neun Milliarden Euro geschrumpft - könnte der deutsche Chiphersteller manchem Konkurrenten, der in der vergangenen Boomphase Reserven anhäufen konnte, durchaus attraktiv erscheinen.

Die Mehrheit am Münchner Hightech-Unternehmen Infineon, 51 Prozent, hält noch immer der Siemens-Konzern. Und dessen Chef Heinrich von Pierer macht seit längerem schon keinen Hehl daraus, dass er die ungeliebte Tochtergesellschaft lieber heute als morgen loswerden würde.

Die Alternative zu einem Verkauf ist für den Siemens-Chef wenig erstrebenswert. Bevor Infineon nämlich tatsächlich - wie von der Deutschen Bank in einer aktuellen Studie prognostiziert - zahlungsunfähig würde, müsste Siemens die Firma mit einer Kapitalspritze versorgen.

Pierer wäre dann von seinem Ziel, aus dem zyklischen Chipgeschäft auszusteigen, wieder weit entfernt.

cu Gulliver,

dosto, wird bald wieder zeit für deinen winterschlaf gelle - oder bleibst du noch ein bischen in deutschland?

[dosto]

jau,
bleibe hier, bekomme sogar verstärkung bzw ist schon da.

es wird zu gefährlich als one man show, dieser markt,
wir sind wieder 6 augen.
neuer start up, börsengang ist möglich.

gruß dosto

aber nur wenn ich in den mdax komme.

[dosto]

gulliver


aber solche zahlen 8 fertigung 1 verkauf, sowohl geld als auch stückzahl,
werden wir auch aus den usa erhalten, demnächst
im dritten quartal, der semis, die sitzen tief in der sch...

[Gulliver]

sox hat heut mal wieder richtig abgekotzt,

jetzt wieder zum threadthema...

hier noch eine meinung von richebächer, den ich wirklich als einen der wenigen hoch einschätze, hat die verschuldungseconomy der amis seit jahren kritisch aufgezeigt und korrekte prophezeiungen gemacht:

Geschrieben von BossCube am 03. Oktober 2001 00:35:56:

CANNES, France - What is the issue of central importance for a nation`s economic future? It is, quite simply, wealth creation.

In America today, Narrow-minded "micro" thinking fails to recognize the gross macroeconomic fallacies in the Wall Street-inspired growth model. Never before have we read so much about wealth creation than in the past few years.

Trillions of dollars accrued to the American public within an unbelievably short time from the rapid gains in stock prices. It was new wealth, yes, but saying this, it is necessary to clarify what we are talking about.

The boom in stock prices created wealth for the stock owners, but for them only, not for the economy as a whole. Generations of economists would never have thought of rising stock and house prices as "wealth creation." They would have derided it as pseudo or paper prosperity.

For them, it was a truism that true wealth and prosperity could only accrue from saving and capital investment, increasing the stock of factories, machines and buildings, providing for more productive production in the future. Saving`s indispensable function in this process is to release resources from consumption that are necessary to add, to improve and to enlarge the existing stock of productive capacity.

What, exactly, makes nations prosper? Just think of the past. Our ancestors took great efforts to build roads, houses, factories and so on. These tangible assets, adding to the economies` productive capacity, were the national macro wealth they created, tending to enrich everybody. At the same time, the production of these capital goods created a large and growing part of the consumer incomes that buy the growing supply of consumer goods.
It was the extraordinary burst of capital spending in tangible productive assets that led to the extraordinary burst in prosperity in the wake of the Industrial Revolution.

These economists knew the crucial difference between increases in the stock of tangible assets adding to the economy`s capacity to produce goods and incomes, and increases in their market value, inherently adding nothing to the economy`s productive capacity. For them, the key question would have been how this increase in paper wealth would impact the utilization of existing resources in the economy.

In case it gives a major boost to consumer borrowing and spending, as it did in the United States, they would have vehemently decried this as calamitous "capital consumption," essentially diminishing potential future economic and income growth.

It cannot be said, of course, that the new information technology is principally detrimental to economic growth and stability. Yet two things turned this technology into a looming economic and financial disaster for the U.S. economy: the absurd, euphoric stories about implicit miraculous economic effects of this technology stoking the stock speculation, primarily propagated by Wall Street; and the most inordinate money and credit creation that the world has ever seen, for which, of course, Mr. Greenspan is primarily responsible.

Together, the euphoria and the credit excesses propelled the fantastic burst of paper wealth that, in its wake, generated the unsustainable, huge imbalances and maladjustments in the economy and the financial system, and whose predetermined fate is a sudden, violent reversal.

But these macro follies were topped by the corporate micro follies guided by the preposterous shareholder value cult. A closer look at balance sheets and profit-and-loss accounts reveals them.


Respected International Banker, Economist and Author

Dr. Kurt Richebächer`s articles appear regularly in The Wall Street Journal, Barron`s, The Fleet Street Letter and other respected financial publications. France`s Le Figaro magazine did a feature story on him as `the man who predicted the Asian crisis.` Dr. Richebächer is currently warning readers to be cautious in the face of The Crisis Almost No One Sees Coming.

cu Gulliver

[Gulliver]

dosto,

wie kommst du an solche leute (von der bank abgeworben, schriftliche bewerbung mit lichtbild (grins) oder eher bekanntenkreis?

die machen doch nur intraday trading für dich oder können die auch cashflowstatements lesen?

cu Gulliver

[dosto]

die hab ich mir selbst gezogen, gulliver

aus den eigenen firmen rausgeholt, was talent hatte.
aber das sind keine daytrader, die beobachten charts,
und melden, wenn sie was sehen oder meinen zu sehen,
die deals mach ich selbst, weiß am besten wieviel
money man da reinhaut, das ist nicht so einfach, wie sich das mancheiner
vorstellt, mann muß auch das material kriegen zum richtigen
preis, zur richtigen zeit und raus muß man auch wieder kommen, aber nicht unbedingt am selben tag, außer es sind shorts. beraten tue ich auch noch mit ihnen, wir arbeiten schon ein dutzend jahre zusammen, wir 3 sind der engere circle. also gulliver wir brauchen 600 000 $ profit
so schnell wie möglich, um unsere ziele umzusetzen,
vorschläge sind willkommen.

[dosto]

11:31AM Bush: Will do `everything" for economy by Rex Nutting
President Bush told business leaders in New York that the federal government stands ready to do "everything" it can to boost the economy after the Sept. 11 terror attacks. The White House and the Congress are close to agreement that $60 billion to $75 billion in additional stimulus is needed to "get money in their hands," he said. The stimulus plan should be passed as soon as possible. Bush said the economy has a lot going for it: Banks are solid and energy prices are reasonable. However, consumers, businesses and workers all need some help in the near-term. As for a recession, Bush said he`d leave talk about definitions to statisticans. "One person laid off is one too many," he said

[Groupier]

@ dosto

Ich halt mich mal kurz!

Haben wir nun den Boden bei den Nasdaq-Hightechs gesehen oder nicht.

Oder war das Heute wider nur eine Gegenreaktion auf dem Weg zu neuen tieferen Tiefständen.

mfg.

Groupier

[dosto]

10/04 11:32
U.S. to Sell $6 Bln in 10-Year Notes to Meet Demand (Update1)
By Monee Fields-White, Simon Kennedy and Vincent Del Giudice


Washington, Oct. 4 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. Treasury today will sell $6 billion in nine-year, 10-month Treasury notes to alleviate a shortage of the securities in the aftermath of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.

The notes will be a reissue of a 5 percent note initially sold Aug. 15 that mature Aug. 15, 2011. Competitive bidding will close at 1 p.m. Washington time and noncompetitive bids are due at noon, the Treasury said.

``We made the decision to hold an early reopening to try to alleviate the heightened demand problem in the 10-year sector,`` said Peter Fisher, Treasury under secretary for domestic finance, in a conference call with reporters. The auction ``has nothing to do with an increase of funding needs on our part,`` he said.

In financial markets, the 5 percent note fell 1/2 point after the Treasury announcement, pushing up its yield 6 basis points to 4.53 percent.

The Treasury sought advice from the Borrowing Advisory Committee, a panel of Wall Street investment industry executives, Fisher said. The Bond Market Association, an industry trade group, has been holding conference calls this week to determine why the cost of borrowing some government securities is so high.

Fisher said the Treasury has no information that any institution has attempted to squeeze the market by limiting supply. He attributed the decision to sell notes to a ``chronically high fails rate.`` The ``fails rate`` refers to instances when a dealer has agreed to sell a security it is unable to first acquire.

`Fails Rate` Rises

The fails rate, which typically ranges between zero and $3 billion, has surged as high as $40 billion since the attacks, Treasury officials said.

Fisher added that ``the cause of the fails is the result of a combination of heightened demand and reluctance by institutional investors to lend into a market that is suffering from extraordinarily high fails levels.``

Treasury will consider selling five-year notes next week if the demand problem persists, Fisher said.

``We will observe on how effective this is at trying to deal`` with the increased level of the so-called fails rate, Fisher said. ``We will then consider whether a similar extraordinary auction of five years is something we might do next week.``

Also, the Treasury will still issue 10-year notes as part of its quarterly refunding, scheduled for Oct. 31, Fisher said.

Investors holding two-year, five-year, and 10-year Treasury debt can borrow money, using those securities as collateral, for almost nothing, because the demand to hold the safest investments exceeds the supply.

Telecommunications Disruptions

Such low rates -- the current five-year note can be borrowed overnight at a 0.05 percent interest rate, compared with 2.5 percent for loans between banks -- reflect a disruption in the way traders finance Treasury holdings that persists three weeks following the attacks on the World Trade Center, analysts said.

Firms have been unable to borrow the notes they need in part because telecommunications connections have been disrupted and some of the new buyers who have flocked to the securities as a safe haven haven`t participated in the securities lending market.

Thomas Perna, a senior executive vice president for The Bank of New York, said the difficulty traders have in obtaining the debt they need is ``something in the system, as changed trading patterns and new people in the market have changed the dynamics`` of financing Treasuries. Perna said Bank of New York clears more than half the trades in the $3.1 trillion government debt market.

The notes sold today will be dated Aug. 15, issued Oct. 5, and mature Aug. 15, 2011, the Treasury announced. The CUSIP, or identification, number will be 9128277B2.

The notes are eligible for the Strips program, an acronym for Separate Trading of Registered Interest and Principal of Securities. In the Strips program, coupons are separated from a note or bond and become a security. The remaining face value note or bond becomes another security that is known as a zero-coupon note or bond.



aha es geht los
looking for cheap money
dank greenspan, will man das jetzt wohl aus der uhrentasche
des fracks finanzieren.
nachtigal ick hör dir trapsen.

[dosto]

groupier


meines erachtens wars das nicht.

begründung:

das ist alles gewollt, von den investmentbänkern, politikern
etc, wir haben eine meinungsbörse,
nur geld muß nicht nur einmal fließen, sondern über monate,
und das haben sie uns noch nicht gezeigt.
ich bleibe bei meiner träding struktur, nichts
a la long, will auch sehen ob der geldmarkt hält,
bei den amizinsen und ob sie das da drüben alleine auch
halten können oder ob sie wieder mal fremdes geld dafür
in massen in anspruch zu nehmen gedenken, dann müßten allerdings
die zinsen bald hoch und nun sind wir in der quadratur des kreises, finanzierung einer wirtschaftsflaute und eines
quasi kriegaszustandes mit 0 zinsen, das war noch nicht da,
vielleicht erleb ich das jetzt das erste mal.
jetzt gehts ans eingemachte, mal sehen wieviel einmachgläser
die amis im regal stehen haben, ich weiß es nicht.
aber für mich ist das ganze ganz schön drollig,
nichts paßt so richtig, allso gehen wir das puzzle an.

ich bin für gewinnmitnahmen, chancen kommen ja immer,
nichts auslassen
alles aber mitnehmen
heißt die devise

ganz calvinistisch-nichts verkommt
stück für stück die taler aufeinanderlegen.

dont trust the market, we trust in god, but not in the dollar, dort ist der spruch lediglich ein gag.

gruß dosto

[dosto]

halt nochwas

ich war schon weg da fiehl mir es noch siedend heiß ein.

groupier

da geistert noch so eine idee in mir.

könnte es sein, daß gewisse fund-manager zum jahresschluß
einen gewissen schrottanteil in ihren funds, versilbern will?

[Groupier]

@ dosto

Definitiv Ja! Wenn es um Fonds geht, bei der die Deutsche Bank mitredet.
Da weis ichs genau wg. durch eine kleine nette Beziehung.
Die Empfehlungen zum Jahresende derselben dienen reichlich der reinen Fonds-Bilanzfrisur.

Beispiel: D. Telekom verschrottung durch Sonera u. Hutschinson neulich.
Erst DB-Empfehlung und dann ?
Natürlich nur ein Versehen in einem so großen Bankhaus kann sowas ja mal passieren. Aber warum immer nur dort.

Oder Ricardo.de wurde zum Jahresende 99 (und in der 3Sat-Börse) über die Fahnenstange gepusht.
Um dann gerade 3 Monate später die Zahlen nicht annähernd zu schaffen.

Bei der Adva-Emmission sind meiner Meinung nach die Stücke der Deutschen Bank nur an spezielle Freunde des Hauses ( eben Fonds u. deren spezielle Freunde/Großkunden) gegangen.
Darüber gab es auch mal einen Bericht im Spiegel.
Die erste Nemax50-Liste war Gewissenhaft mit der DB abgestimmt.

Fazit: Als Kleinanleger ist man bei der DB nur eine Karteilleiche.

mfg.

Groupier

[dosto]

au jauw

da gibts in amerika noch die schlecht disponierten janus-funds, etc. ganz zu schweigen von einigen (z.binternet-funds) die wahrscheinlich alle geschlossen werden, mangels vernüftiger aktien. da gibts noch eine menge geschiebe
im laufe des jahres, ich möchte denen im high-tech bereich nicht im wege stehen, das sollen sie mal unter sich ausmachen, das minenfeld ist mir zu gefährlich geworden
sowohl long als short. nicht meine sache auf den genossen
zufall zu setzen, das kann auch entsetzliche watschen geben.

gruß

[Groupier]

@ dosto

Solange die genug Dumme finden sprich Käufer mit zu hohem Weihnachtsgeld nicht.
Das böse Erwachen kommt dann aber am Ende des Winters.

mfg.

Groupier

[Gulliver]

hi dosto,

hab heute bei cnnfn gelesen das der janus cheffe seinen anteil für 1,6 milliarden an die muttergesellschaft verkauft hat.

haben die den kopf zum denken verloren und nur noch den triebgesteuerten behalten - oder warum lassen die sich in dieser phase auf son deal ein?!

im nächsten jahr hätten sie angeblich höchstens für die hälfte gekriegt

fonds einlagen von zweikopp von 300 billion dollars auf 170 geschrumpft!!!

cu Gulliver

[dosto]

gulliver

die nachricht ist echt shocking.

die waren, sind und bleiben größenwahnssig.

[nilrem]

hallo dosto
ich behaupte hier einfach mal
die japaner "drucken" Yen und kaufen dafür Dollar und Euro.Damit dieses Geld nicht verkommt,wird es im Aktienmarkt zur Stützung von Dow /DAX usw. eingesetzt und ----alle sind glücklich---.
Der Yen bleibt in der gewünschten Bandbreite,wertet nicht weiter auf.
Der Dax und Dow usw. kommen aus ihrem Tief und die Optimisten sehen das Licht am Ende des Tunnels und springen auf den fahrenden Zug.
Ich frage mich: für wen soll das schlecht sein??????

Vielleicht weißt du eine Antwort?
Gruß Nilrem

[Gulliver]

TO: Berkshire Hathaway Managers ("The All-Stars")

FROM: Warren E. Buffett

DATE: September 26, 2001



The last few weeks have been tough times for all of us in our personal lives and for many of us in our business activities.

At Berkshire we have estimated our September 11 insurance loss was $2.2 billion. We’ve labeled this a "guess" because that’s all it is. It will be many years before we can tell the world within a narrow range what the true figure was.

A very high percentage of the loss occurred in our U.S. insurance companies, with the balance in German and U.K. entities. Because we have regularly paid very large amounts of U.S. income taxes, we will bear 65% of the cost applicable to the U.S. operations; the government will bear 35%. Many insurers will not have their loss mitigated in this manner and some may not survive. Though much of our loss will be paid very soon, significant payments in the liability area will take a considerable time to settle.

Even with tax recoveries, our loss is huge. Nevertheless, it’s one Berkshire can easily bear. We have long been in the super-cat business and we have been prepared, both financially and psychologically, to handle them when they occur. This won’t be our last hit, though we fervently hope disasters in the future arise from natural causes, rather than be man-made. (We also would hope they would be of lesser magnitude.)

What should you be doing in running your business? Just what you always do: Widen the moat, build enduring competitive advantage, delight your customers, and relentlessly fight costs. With the exception of insurance pricing and coverages, almost all operating decisions that made sense a month ago make sense today.

For my part, I’ll keep looking for sensible acquisitions and continue to manage our resources so that Berkshire remains a financial Rock of Gibraltar. I’m sure we are in a recession, probably a relatively deep and extended one, but they are part of business life and we are prepared.

In short, you do the managing and I’ll do the worrying. That’s a division of labor that’s worked for us in the past, and it will continue to work well in the future.

Thanks, as always, for the great job all of you do that, in turn, makes my job so easy.


Warren

P.S. If you wish, share this message with any of your associates.

[dosto]

groupier und nilrem

da ist mir noch was eingefallen.

also ich bin bin der meinung wir spielen erst noch die anpassung
der aktienwerte an ihre eher realen werte, nach dem alten schema, wie ichs gelernt habe, die werte haben sich verändert. das ist das was jetzt passiert.

nächstes jahr, werden wir dann (erst und enlich) die rezession an der börse spielen.

das sagt wohl alles

nilrem: was soll da schlimm sein, nichts, jeder darf glauben was er will, ich glaubs nicht sihe szenario oben.
vom gesundreden hat noch keine börse überlebt, und vom
hin-und herschieben der währungen, der bondwerte, und
der
kurse hat sich auch noch nie ne hausse entwickelt,
(immer durch steigende gewinne).
also ob wir jetzt etwas nach oben gehen erleichtert mir auch das
geschäft, denn beim traden bin ich natürlich voll dabei,
nicht bein legen al la long, da siehst du mich noch lange nicht, darüber will ich vor januar überhaupt nicht reden,
bis dahin gehen die gewinne erst mal zu über 50 % den bach runter, und ich will keinen titel haben, der unangehm auffällt und danach knallhart abfällt. es ist noch genügend
zeit sich zu positionieren, die verhältnisse in den usa,
für einen knallharten retourn on investment menschen wie
dosto, sind noch lange nicht geradegerückt, ich sehe nur einen
wert der meinen long erwartungen entsprechen kann und das ist exxon,
der rest ist noch ein gehöriges stück weit weg, um die
ampel umzuschalten.
also das große geld kommt nicht, übrigens von den mir bekannten anderen big playern (privat-investoren) kommt
auch nichts, die welche ihre einsätze nach millionen richten sind noch nicht dabei, warum auch?

gruß dosto

[dosto]

nilrem

da ist mirs eingefallen, was falsch ist

das drucken von geld (jen-japan) und wechseln in euros
und aktien.
ist schlichtweg kriminell,
sollten das die europs und amis genauso tun,
wäre eigentlich der aktienmarkt und unsere währungen, jen,eur, $, schlichtweg ein tollhaus.

gruß dosto

geld hätte dann wohl auch bald für die reichen keinen sinn mehr, da es für nichts wert ist, da es ja in massen vorhanden ist, was ja in wirklichkeit bei 90% der bevölkerung nicht stimmt, leider werden die 90 % irgendwann
mal dafür unheimlich bestraft werden, die reichen haben,
dann ihre farmen, wochendhäuser etc und werden wohl
durchkommen, der rest wird erbärmlich verarmen.
also laß die börse sich lieber von selbst erholen,
ohne solche komischen aktionen, die du mir gepostet hast,
im sinne der menschheit wäre das besser.
kein mensch braucht aktien
jerder mensch braucht ein quantum an geld um zu überleben.
mit geld sollte man gefälligst keinen so horrenden unfug machen.

äh wär ich jetzt zu moralisch?

[woernie]

hallo gulliver

weil du an yardeni`s valuation modell anscheinend spass hattest oder es zumindest interessant fandest, hier zur vertiefung:

http://www.yardeni.com/public/val.pdf

gruss woernie

p.s.: hast du waxie mal `free getrialt`?

[nilrem]

hallo dosto
die Währungen sind an keine feste Größe gebunden.Ihr Umtauschverhältnis sollte die Wirtschaftskraft eines Landes widerspiegeln.Als Papiergeldbesitzer VERTRAUT man darauf,daß man zu einem späteren Zeitpunkt den Gegenwert des Zettels in reale Waren umtauschen kann.Das ist die Theorie

Wenn man sich nun den YEN anschaut,kann man sich nur wundern und staunen. Das wird es für mich paradox.

Mit kleinen Unterbrechungen wertet der Yen ständig auf,obwohl die Wirtschaft von einer Rezession zur nächsten wankt und die Staatsverschuldung auf 140% des BSP angestiegen ist.Das heißt doch im Umkehrschluß, je mehr Schulden Japan macht,umso mehr vertrauen die Marktteilnehmer auf die Fähigkeit der japanischen Wirtschaft, diese zurückzuzahlen.

ich behaupte einfach mal so als Denkansatz und bin für jeden Einwand offen:
Die Japanische Notenbank druckt seit mindestens 10 Jahren Geld im Überfluß, um den Zinssatz im Null-Bereich zu halten.Die "schlaue Restwelt" nimmt diese YEN als Kredite vom Markt,da die Japaner diese Kredite nicht wollen.
YEN werden in Dollar und Euro getauscht und inflationieren die Aktien - und Immobilienmärkte der Welt.
Die Rechnung ist doch super: 2% Kreditzinsen in Japan und in Aktien oder Renten (USA/EUROPA)angelegt, mindestens 6%Rendite.
Was passiert aber, wenn die Rendite dahinschwindet oder gar ins Minus dreht.Wie es zur Zeit der Fall ist???
Bleiben die KREDIT-YEN in Europa und USA.Wobei noch zu beachten wäre,daß der YEN trotz Notenbankinterventionen keine nachhaltige Anzeichen der Schwäche zeigt.
Zur Null-Rendite käme dann auch noch das Risiko der Währungsverluste.
Wenn alle durch die selbe Tür wollen,kann es sehr eng werden und das muß Grünspan verhindern.
Die Aktienmärkte dürfen nur kurz abtauchen.Eine längere Bodenbildung darf es nicht geben.Die Hoffnung auf Wertsteigerung muß auf jeden Fall erhalten bzw. sofort neu entfacht werden.
Also druckt auch Grünspan jede Menge Dollar-soviel wie man möchte und stabilisiert damit die Märkte.
Die einzige Schwachstelle auf die man achten muß ist m E. der YEN.
Trotz Interventionen kommt der $/EURO nicht in Fahrt.

dosto
wir sind im Tollhaus.Ein Telefonkunde wurde noch letztes Jahr mit 10.000-14.000 DM bewertet und bezahlt!!!!
Das hat meine Mutter in 25 Jahren nicht an die Telekom bezahlt.
Dafür verhungern die Menschen in den Entwicklungsländern,obwohl sie arbeiten.Schau dir mal die Agrar-und Rohstoffpreise der letzten 20 Jahre an.
Wo wurde außer im Finanzmarkt in den letzten Jahren noch richtig Geld verdient??
Und Dosto,du irrst,seit 1990 spätestens, hat sich aus diesem Jonglieren eine Hausse nach der anderen entwickelt und Grünspan könnte es auch diesmal zusammen mit der Japanischen Notenbank schaffen.Deusenberg wehrt sich ja noch ein wenig.Aber mit dem neuen Krieg als Klammer wird der auch noch auf Linie gebracht.

Grüße nilrem

[Gulliver]

hi woernie,

danke auch für den zweiten link!

also waxie verfolg ich immer die frei zugänglichen statements.

der lag auch schon so einges mal falsch. schmückt sich im nachherein immer mit fremden federn -

der free trial ist ziemlich aufwendig, man muss auf jeden fall seine kreditkartennummer angeben und von hier nach amerika ist halt nen weiter weg - bin da eher vorsichtig,

außerdem momentan alles in gold angelegt nichts mehr frei

cu Gulliver

[dosto]

10/19 13:43
Providian Plunges by Half as Profit Falls, CEO Out (Update6)
By Scott Silvestri


San Francisco, Oct. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Providian Financial Corp. shares fell as much as 60 percent after the fifth-largest U.S. Visa and MasterCard issuer said credit card losses are mounting and its chief executive officer will resign.

The San Francisco company`s stock declined $7.20 to $5.20 in afternoon trading. Shares fell 34 percent a week ago when Providian said it would report lower third-quarter earnings than it projected in early September. Profit fell 71 percent in the three months, the company said yesterday.

Shailesh Mehta, the CEO since 1988, will be replaced as soon as a successor is found. The management disruption will make it harder for Providian to bounce back, investors said.

``They don`t have anyone running the company,`` said James McKelvey, a portfolio manager at John Hancock Advisers Inc. in Boston, which sold all of its Providian shares a few weeks ago. ``The risk is too high to own the stock.``

Providian is paying the price for lending to too many high- risk borrowers, analysts say. The company plans to stop offering cards to people who haven`t paid lenders back on time or have short credit histories. About 30 percent, or $9.4 billion, of its $31.7 billion in U.S. loans are to such customers.

Borrowers are having more difficulty paying their debts as the U.S. economy slows and unemployment rises. After the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks hurt consumer confidence, bank and credit card company profits may be hurt for longer than previously expected.

Recommendations Cut

Providian`s announcements hurt shares of other credit card companies. Capital One Financial Corp. fell $2.09 to $46.59, Metris Companies Inc. fell $2.30 to $20.10 and MBNA Corp. fell $1.23 cents to $29.46.

Analysts at six firms, including Lehman Brothers Inc. and UBS Warburg, downgraded Providian after the earnings release.

The company needs ``the quick hiring of a high profile CEO who can lend credibility while losses work through,`` wrote Merrill Lynch & Co. analyst Michael Hughes in a report. He lowered his rating on the stock to ``neutral`` from ``near-term buy.``

Third-quarter net income fell to $57.2 million, or 20 cents a share, from $200.7 million, or 68 cents a share, in the year- earlier period. The figures were in line with the 19 to 21 cents a share the company said last week it would earn.

Fourth-quarter earnings are expected to be 10 cents to 15 cents a share, resulting in full-year earnings of $1.87 to $1.92 a share, Providian said. The average analyst estimate was 60 cents for the fourth quarter and $2.37 for the year, according to a survey by Thomson Financial/First Call.

The company expects to set aside at least $100 million for loan losses in the fourth quarter, when losses may be higher than 12 percent of average loans annualized, up from 10.33 percent in the third quarter.

`Life Support`

Investors are paying 51 cents on the dollar for Providian`s 3.25 percent convertible bonds that mature in August 2005, down from 56 cents yesterday, according to Bloomberg Data. As recently as July 18, investors paid $1.05.

``Providian is on life support,`` said David Hendler, a strategist at CreditSight, an independent research firm. ``When people lose jobs and are unemployed for extended periods of time, they can`t afford to pay 20 percent interest rates on credit cards,``

The company plans to boost interest rates on some loans and make it harder to get credit line increases.

Mehta, 52, who was born in Mumbai, India, said ``the decision to initiate these management changes was mine.`` Last year, he was paid $7.6 million in salary, bonus, restricted shares, and options to buy shares.

``I`ve always viewed him and his management as one of the brightest and most innovative in that industry,`` said James Lyon, managing principal for equity investments at Oakwood Capital Management LLC.

``I`d think Providian would want to continue having him on the board,`` he said. Oakwood Capital sold its 43,000 Providian shares in August.

[dosto]

nilrem

das ist ja alles richtig was du da schreibst,
solange die parameter sich nicht verändern.

jetzt denk mal darüber nach was passiert wenn zb
brasilien, indien etc. wie die weltmeister geld drucken,
da sieht dann die sache ganz anders aus, das was du schreibst, dreht sich sofort ins gegenteil.

deswegen sollten sich jemals die parameter ändern,
sollte man dann noch euro oder dollars oder yens halten.
wir werden wahrscheinlich noch lange nicht so weit sein,
aber wenns kommen sollte, wir wissens dann gehts auch ruck zuck.
die gefährlichkeit alles auf schein aufzubauen, wiederspricht auch dem verantwortungsprinzip.

gruß dosto

eigentlich brauch ich nicht immer so ne superhausse,
denn meistens halten das meine nerven so oder so nicht aus,
sodaß ich angsthase immer wieder zu früh aussteige,
da ich diese kurse manchmal einfach nicht glauben kann.
soll ich meinen gesunden menschenverstand jetzt im schrank
verstauen, damit es mir mal im ganzen gelingt diesen
markt auf drukularische art auszusaugen, oder soll ich
damit zufrieden sein, daß er mir bisher immer ein anständiges
leben genehmigt hat.
daß die gier den verstand wieder bezwingt ist mir auch
klar und somit eine neue hausse programmiert ist,
aber die gier ist eigentlich schon das endstadium,
richtige haussen werden im stillen ganz unauffällig gelegt
und lange zeit nicht herausposauniert, sobald die posaunen
klingen mußt du rein biblisch nur jericho denken.

gruß dosto

[dosto]

3:03PM J.P. Morgan files $20 bln shelf (JPM) by Tomi Kilgore
J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM) filed a registration statement with the U.S. Securities to offer up to $20 billion in securities, including debt, preferred and common stock, and their warrants. The financial services giant plans to use the proceeds for general corporate purposes. "We may invest the net proceeds temporarily or apply them to repay short-term debt until we are ready to use them for their stated purpose," the company said in the filing. The stock, a component of the Dow Industrial ($INDU) is down 51 cents at $33.63

[Dallas]

@ groupier...rein vom Chart her...sehen wir Montag...Dienstag evtl...vielleicht sogar noch einen Tag länger..noch steigende Kurse...dann geht es wieder gen Süden...und die Fundamentals sind ja auch nicht umwerfend..

gruss Dallas

[Ken_meyer]

@dosto,#62

wie siehst du und deine connections den Derivate-König(JPM)?
Mir ist sehr unwohl bei denen; könnten bildlich gesprochen einen WTC-Crash für das Finanzsystem auslösen. Die hebeln
um die 25 Billionen(deutsche Einheit!), umgerechnet etwa 20 Prozent des US-GDP...

[dosto]

ja ken

liegen sie schief und wo liegen schief,

wenn sie jetzt in den bonds schief dahängen, dann
gute nacht, das wird ne lange zeit dauern um das rauszuarbeiten. was da genau abläuft ist mir noch nicht klar,
und wird wohl nur der inner circle wissen und das sind bei morgan, sehr, sehr wenige, greespan weiß es bestimmt,
und so nervös wie der in letzter zeit war, ist mir nicht wohl. diese meldung von von morgan besagt für nur eines,
äußerst vorsichtig und nur kurzzeitig zu reagieren.
also kurze investments-aber gleich mit sehr hohen beträgen,
mit jedlicher minimalen gewinnsicherung, punktum: genau das
gegenteil, was den aktienmarkt stabilisieren könnte.
ich bin nicht mal mehr bereit meine beliebte stillhalter
(schreiben von calls) position in größerem maße einzugehen.
das ganze stellt mich sehr unruhig, wir hatten schon mal
so ein scenario und gingen damals nur hauchdünn am kolaps
vorbei, das wird diesmal nicht anders sein, sie müssen es
auch diesmal wieder schaffen das ist nicht die frage,
die frage wie hoch und zu welchem preis, und wer bekommt
#letztendlich den arschtritt.

gruß dosto

[dosto]

10/19 17:58
Merrill to Offer Voluntary Retirement to Employees (Update2)
By Stephen Cohen


New York, Oct. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Merrill Lynch & Co. said it`s offering its 65,900 employees a severance package that may be worth more than one year`s salary as leaders of the biggest securities firm accelerate cost-cutting efforts.

Employees will have between Monday and early November to accept the offer, said spokesman Joseph Cohen. Those who decline the offer, the first of its kind at the 116-year-old firm, risk being fired in the drive by Chief Executive Officer David Komansky and President Stanley O`Neal to shore up earnings.

``There are probably a few stressed-out people who might take them up on that,`` said Geoff Hance, an analyst at Northern Trust Corp., which owned 7.7 million shares of Merrill as of June. ``They have probably got people in their 50s who might look at that offer pretty darn seriously.``

Unwilling to forecast a rebound after third-quarter net income sank 52 percent, Merrill executives are trying to slash expenses. O`Neal said yesterday after earnings were announced that an overhaul replacing the heads of the four business units in the past month was intended to ``reshape the cost base.``

All Merrill staff will receive a memo detailing the offer on Monday, according to Cohen. Employees who accept will receive a severance that may equal more than one year`s salary, depending upon length of service. They will also get a ``significant`` portion of their year 2000 bonuses, Cohen said. Employees need their manager`s approval to accept the offer.

Industry Slump

Securities firms have eliminated more than 26,000 jobs this year, the biggest year for firings since 1987, according to the Securities Industry Association. Bear Stearns Cos. yesterday said it is eliminating 830 positions, 7.5 percent of the total.

Merrill, the largest securities underwriter and biggest broker, has reduced its staff by 6,100 people this year. Still, ``We do feel we are sized inappropriately,`` Komansky said yesterday. Third-quarter revenue fell 16 percent.

Executives have not commented on a Wall Street Journal report this week that O`Neal aimed to fire as many as 10,000 employees at a cost of more than $1 billion. O`Neal has said more job cuts are likely, though no decisions have been made.

The buyout package marks the biggest step to reduce costs since O`Neal purged his top rivals. The shakeup prompted Jeffrey Peek, head of asset management, and international chief Winthrop Smith, to leave the firm. Thomas Davis, who oversaw investment banking and trading businesses, became a vice chairman with some executive responsibility.

`Fresh Perspective`

New senior executives will give Merrill`s management ``a fresh perspective on a number of issues and a number of accepted wisdoms,`` O`Neal, named president in July, said yesterday on a conference call.

The market slump and $152 million of third-quarter severance expenses drove up Merrill`s compensation costs to 53.6 percent of net revenue from 51.2 percent a year ago.

Merrill Lynch said the aftermath of the Sept. 11 terrorist attack cost 6 cents a share, reflecting only the expenses related to the recovery and dislocation of 9,000 employees from their lower Manhattan offices. Even without that, the drop would still have been more than the decline posted by Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley Dean Witter & Co., whose quarters ended Aug. 31.

The firm`s shares have dropped 40 percent this year, compared with the Bloomberg Wall Street Index, down 31 percent.

Merrill is a passive, minority investor in Bloomberg LP, the parent of Bloomberg News.


i remember
ein user fragte mich mal, wann das ganze runter ein ende
hat und der boden kommt.
soweit ich mich an meine antwort errinnern kann war die ungefähr folgende
"erst wenn die investmentbranche 50-100 tsd leute entlässt,
wir sind gerade mitten drin

gruß dosto

[dosto]

10/19 17:58
Merrill to Offer Voluntary Retirement to Employees (Update2)
By Stephen Cohen


New York, Oct. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Merrill Lynch & Co. said it`s offering its 65,900 employees a severance package that may be worth more than one year`s salary as leaders of the biggest securities firm accelerate cost-cutting efforts.

Employees will have between Monday and early November to accept the offer, said spokesman Joseph Cohen. Those who decline the offer, the first of its kind at the 116-year-old firm, risk being fired in the drive by Chief Executive Officer David Komansky and President Stanley O`Neal to shore up earnings.

``There are probably a few stressed-out people who might take them up on that,`` said Geoff Hance, an analyst at Northern Trust Corp., which owned 7.7 million shares of Merrill as of June. ``They have probably got people in their 50s who might look at that offer pretty darn seriously.``

Unwilling to forecast a rebound after third-quarter net income sank 52 percent, Merrill executives are trying to slash expenses. O`Neal said yesterday after earnings were announced that an overhaul replacing the heads of the four business units in the past month was intended to ``reshape the cost base.``

All Merrill staff will receive a memo detailing the offer on Monday, according to Cohen. Employees who accept will receive a severance that may equal more than one year`s salary, depending upon length of service. They will also get a ``significant`` portion of their year 2000 bonuses, Cohen said. Employees need their manager`s approval to accept the offer.

Industry Slump

Securities firms have eliminated more than 26,000 jobs this year, the biggest year for firings since 1987, according to the Securities Industry Association. Bear Stearns Cos. yesterday said it is eliminating 830 positions, 7.5 percent of the total.

Merrill, the largest securities underwriter and biggest broker, has reduced its staff by 6,100 people this year. Still, ``We do feel we are sized inappropriately,`` Komansky said yesterday. Third-quarter revenue fell 16 percent.

Executives have not commented on a Wall Street Journal report this week that O`Neal aimed to fire as many as 10,000 employees at a cost of more than $1 billion. O`Neal has said more job cuts are likely, though no decisions have been made.

The buyout package marks the biggest step to reduce costs since O`Neal purged his top rivals. The shakeup prompted Jeffrey Peek, head of asset management, and international chief Winthrop Smith, to leave the firm. Thomas Davis, who oversaw investment banking and trading businesses, became a vice chairman with some executive responsibility.

`Fresh Perspective`

New senior executives will give Merrill`s management ``a fresh perspective on a number of issues and a number of accepted wisdoms,`` O`Neal, named president in July, said yesterday on a conference call.

The market slump and $152 million of third-quarter severance expenses drove up Merrill`s compensation costs to 53.6 percent of net revenue from 51.2 percent a year ago.

Merrill Lynch said the aftermath of the Sept. 11 terrorist attack cost 6 cents a share, reflecting only the expenses related to the recovery and dislocation of 9,000 employees from their lower Manhattan offices. Even without that, the drop would still have been more than the decline posted by Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley Dean Witter & Co., whose quarters ended Aug. 31.

The firm`s shares have dropped 40 percent this year, compared with the Bloomberg Wall Street Index, down 31 percent.

Merrill is a passive, minority investor in Bloomberg LP, the parent of Bloomberg News.


i remember
ein user fragte mich mal, wann das ganze runter ein ende
hat und der boden kommt.
soweit ich mich an meine antwort errinnern kann war die ungefähr folgende
"erst wenn die investmentbranche 50-100 tsd leute entlässt,
wir sind gerade mitten drin

gruß dosto

[woernie]

hi ken, dosto

zu jpm:
ueber die (moeglichen) folgen klaert das untenstehende ja in etwa auf. koennt ihr dem unbedarften laien, also mir kurz erklaeren um was fuer `geschaefte` es bei den 29 billionen geht? was fuer derivate und wer bezieht die andere seite in dem deal?

danke

woernie

JPMorgan-Chase (JPM) increases its notional derivatives to over $29 trillion. CyclePro Outlook has been following the bank derivative story for several years now and as far as I can tell, I was the first to break the story. The Q2, 2001 report was just released from the Office of the Comptroller. The report continues to show JPMorgan and Chase Manhattan as separate companies. Total notional derivatives across all U.S. banks has risen by +$3.9 trillion to $47.8 trillion. The combined JPMorgan-Chase has a derivative to asset base ratio of 47 to 1.

What does all of this mean? Well, for starters it means that if JPM were to suffer a loss (ie: systemic, credit default) of a mere 1/2% of its derivative book it would likely cause a run on the bank (since they`d be eating a loss of about $150 billion). A 1% loss probably means a de-listing of JPM from the Dow Jones Industiral Average and Alan Greenspan runs the Fed`s printing presses 24x7 to bail them out. A 1 1/2% loss drags the global financial system through absolute hell. And, a 2% loss completely washes JPM out of existence.

If that isn`t enough... of the top 7 banks in the U.S. it would only take a loss of 4.4% to wipe out all 7 banks. And, a 10% loss completely wipes out all 367 banks that use ANY financial derivatives.

[dosto]

woernie

das geht an die nieren.

was es genau ist wird dadurch auch nicht gesagt, es sieht so aus daß es sich um ein rückversicherungs-geschäft handelt,
bei dem morgan nun erst mal imaginäre verluste hinnehmen muß,
die schein bar nicht abgedeckt sind (eigenkapital)aber als
sicherheit vorhanden sein sein sollten. die zahlen die dort stehen sind horrend (in deinem artikel)
ich muß jetzt mal tief darüber nachdenken, in welcher form
dieses geld wohl liegen kann, ob leicht oder schwer zu aktivieren ist.
absatz 2+3 beschreibt mit seinen % schlicht und einfach das ende der investmentbanken und der halben bankenbranche (in
diesem fall der big brother) und wird herrn greenspan
zum größten auftragsgeber (den es jemals auf der welt)
machen, der je einen druckauftrag erteilt hat.

vielleicht weiß einer was anderes, was besseres oder einfach noch mehr.

[Groupier]

@ dosto, ken, woernie

Soll das etwa heissen, daß in kürze eine " japanische Bankenkrise " a la USA droht ?
Nur noch schlimmer halt, will meinen dann gibts da keine Bank mehr in den USA.

Imaginäre Verluste im derivate Geschäft ?
Das ich nicht lache also z. B. die Verluste von Nick Leeson waren irgendwie sehr Real.

Sind da mit 29 Trillionen = 29 000 000 Milliarden USD gemeint?

Kann ich daraus folgern, daß der blöde Euro die härtere Währung ist?

mfg.

Groupier

[Dallas]

ohoho...das hört sich aber alles gar nicht gut an...soll das heissen...selbst wenn du Puttest..bzw. shortest...du in die Sch...greifen kannst...nicht weil die Richtung nicht stimmt...sondern weil..je nachdem von wem Puts und shorts sind...der Ofen ganz einfach AUS ist..???

Dallas...

[nilrem]

hallo dosto
schön,daß du wieder da bist.leider habe ich die nächsten 3 wochen wenig zeit für das börsentheater.

welche parameter meinst du??

welche indices zeigen an,ob es kritisch wird??
Bonds,Wechselkurse,Bankenindices ???

ich hoffe,genau wie du,daß es greenspan wieder schafft,die märkte zu beruhigen.nur der krug ist schon sehr oft zum brunnen gegangen.....
mein englisch ist leider sehr schlecht.was hast du als letzte meldungen in diesen thread gestellt??

grüße nilrem

[woernie]

JPM derivate!

quelle:CyclePro

... (-47% from 2000 highs). There has been a trickle more media coverage on JPM`s leveraged derivative situation. The WTC catastrophe and the domino affect that will result from it, will eventually wash up to the steps of JPM -- and also Citigroup (-39% from highs), Deutschebank (-56%), Bank of America (-24%), Bank One (-58%), and all other highly over-extended derivative ratio holders. JPM`s (combined JPMorgan & Chase) netted derivative holdings is $22.3 trillion, their market capitalization is currently $61.2 billion, this means a ratio of 365 to 1. JPM`s assets and deposit base is $713 billion, this means a ratio of 31.4 to 1. We discussed the risk of complacency, and JPM is an excellent example of this. JPM is considered "too big to fail", so the Fed will actively make assurances that JPM will not fail. The cost of these assurances ultimately affect us all. The Fed will actively inflate the US Dollar by printing billions more (many times more than the $billions released after the WTC attack). This is inflationary at its worst. There will be no way to fix this situation without a significant financial impact to all Americans. This is history in the making, and we will all participate whether we like it or not. But do not expect anything to be (publically) revealed any time soon... because of the magnitude of the US banking-derivative plight, the Fed and insiders will make every attempt to keep it all quiet as much as possible, or at least until they believe they have effectively corrected the situation. If you remember the LTCM derivative disaster in 1998, it took over 1 month before the media was aware that anything was amiss. By then, Robert Rubin had orchestrated the solution whereby each affected institution would write off their losses (even though it was fed to US investors as "loans" to LTCM). The LTCM episode cost the banks $billions -- the next episode is likely to cost them $trillions.

und allgemeiner:

Die Gefahr der Derivate – Die unbekannten Risiken der Banken

Je sicherer du bist, um so mehr Risiken du ignorierst und desto größer du bist, um so härter wird der Fall sein...

Nur ein paar Zahlen zu Ihrer Information: Das Derivatevolumen weltweit. In Zahlen 140.000.000.000.000,- DM (Billionen DM). Das Wachstum dieser Derivate betrug zwischen 1990 – 1997 pro Jahr 30%. Die Deutschen Banken mischen in diesem Geschäft kräftig mit. Das Derivatevolumen in der BRD 29.7 Billionen DM. Eine Vergleichszahl: Dies entspricht 1 Million DM pro Haushalt. Sehr gerne können wir Ihnen bei Interesse Einzelheiten über die Derivatevolumina der größeren Banken in der BRD nachweisen. Sie werden erstaunt sein.

Spitzenreiter weltweit in diesem Geschäft sind aber die amerikanischen Banken. Nur ein Beispiel. Das Derivatevolumen ist bei J.P. Morgan 785 mal höher als das Eigenkapital. Bei Bankers Trust heißt diese Zahl 545.

Eine Schieflage von nur 1% bedeutet 1.400.000.000 DM. Beim LTCM Crash hat die Bewältigung einer Schieflage von 6. Mrd DM schon große Probleme gemacht. Sie können sich nun leicht vorstellen was passieren kann, wenn nur eine winzige Schieflage auftritt. Ein Bankencrash ist die Folge. Wir wollen mit der Veröffentlichung dieser Zahlen keine Panik auslösen. Wir möchten nur vorsichtig auf diese Risiken hinweisen.

Ganz zu schweigen von den enormen zusätzlichen Kreditrisiken in Billionen DM, z.B. in Südamerika, Asien und in Osteuropa.


mein derzeitiger kommentar:
der zweite artikel ist aelter , wie man sieht war das ratio bei JPM schon mal groesser als aktuell. also vielleicht nur die uebliche `panikmache` der baeren? ich muss zugeben, dass mir dies alles eine hausnummer zu hoch ist.

ausserdem gibt es ja international gueltige spielregeln der finanzinstitute und ihrer aufsichtsbehörden zum umgang mit risiko, seiner begrenzung und absicherung durch eigene mittel des instituts . fragt sich natuerlich wie effizient die sind:
kurzfassung
http://www.bis.org/press/p010116.htm
und fuer `interessierte mit vieeeel zeit` die ausfuehrliche variante:
http://www.bakred.de/texte/internat/ind_bas.htm

gruss woernie

[Ken_meyer]

@woernie

von Panikmache der "Bären" kann kaum die Rede sein, denn
denen stinkt diese Geschichte schon seit mindestens
99 zum Himmel; und das ist übrigens einer der wesentlichen
Gründe, warum ich für die Amis den Daumen nach unten halte.
Ich hatte dies im thread von @cabinda auch versucht ein oder
zweimal anzusprechen, aber es ist schlicht ignoriert worden
wer ist schon JPM gegen nen schrillen wireless networker zock?!
( sorry, ich weiss, Eigenlob stinkt, spätestens seit ich
Karl May gelesen hab )

Welche "ramicfications" ( mir fällt grade kein deutsches
Wort ein ) das haben kann, falls das Kartenhaus zusammenbrechen
sollte, kann man eben so sicher voraussagen, wie wieviele
Ziegel auf meiner Hütte bei einer Naturkatastrophe heil bleiben würden.
Eines dürfte sicher sein, wenn der Sturm losbricht möchte ich alle meine
Schäfchen im Trockenen haben. Schlimmstenfalls bedeutet dieses
den Transfer der assets in PHYSISCHE Werte/Edelmetall.

--
zu deiner Frage


Derivate bedeuten im Grundsatz den Transfer von Risiko, und
JPM hat sich darauf spezialisiert mit Hilfe von höchst
ausgeklügelten mathematischen Modellen die übernommenen
Risiken gegeneinander auszubalancieren ( es gibt also nicht
DIE Gegenseite). Nun besteht die Gefahr, dass diese schlauen
Modelle in ihren Grundannahmen halt bestimmte "höchst
unwahrscheinliche" Marktzustände nicht einschliessen(habne die Versicherer
ja auch nicht getan), insbesondere
de eines dramatischen exogenen Schocks wie das des WTC-Attentats
Allerdings waren Experten auch unabhängig von diesem
Ereignis schon sehr skeptisch und sprachen bei JPM, die
unglaubliche 60 % des Derivatemarktes kontrollieren( was ungefähr
20 Prozent(!) des amerikanischen Brutosozialprodukts ausmacht), von
einem "acident waiting to happen". Insbesondere Doug Noland,
der in seinem "Credit Bubble Bulletin" sich seit Jahren (auch)
mit dem Derivatemarkt befasst, hat mehrfach darüber geschrieben,
dass es sich hierbei quasi um einen Versuch handelt, die
Schwerkraft auf Münchhausensche Weise aufzuheben( meine
Metapher), dass der Markt quasi versucht, sich selber zu hedgen.

Ich muss allerings auch zugeben, dass es schwierig ist darüber
zu schrieben, weil es ne ziemlich esoterische Materie
ist, sozusagen High-Tech Finance und wo faktisch überall
die Bomben hochgehen, falls die kollabieren, möchte ich
mir lieber nicht ausmalen; ich kann mir nicht vorstellen,
dass davon "nur" Banken und nur die USA betroffen sind.

Bemerkenswert ist derzeit nun jedenfalls, dass JPM auf einmal einen Kapitalbedarf
in Höhe seiner Marktkapitalisierung ankündigt und
das ist nun nicht gerade ein Vorgang, der meine Instinkte beruhigt.
Darum hab ich auf @dostos Info reagiert.

[dosto]

nilrem


ich weiß nicht wie die neuen parameter aussehen können.
was ich damit meine ist folgendes

weltwährung: ist der $
führende wirtschaftsmacht: die usa wird dazu erklärt, ob sies in wirklichkeit ist (oder nur der verbale leader-weil
das ganze für mich doch etwas komplexer ist, und nicht nur auf amerika zugeschnitten kann und eigentlich auch nicht darf).
das nächste parameter ist genauso gefährlich: nämlich die ausrichtung der wirtschaft (durch das obige) auf rein amerikanische muster (ohne rücksichtname evt. eigenschaften
der anderen teilnehmer- also jetzt mal ne floskel aus der litaratur- die wirtschaft der anderen wird zur wirtschaft
ohne eigenschaften herauf-oder herunterkommandiert, durch
die leaderschaft der ami-wirtschaft (die ausrichtung hat
schlicht und einfach in die richtig zu gehen, da sie erfolgreich ist, oder auch nur erfolgreich scheint.)
die instutionen wie weltbank und iwf werden wie selbstverständlich natürlich auch gleich mitgenommen,
der bondmarkt und aktienmarkt hat sein scheinbar natürliches zuhause in london und new york, das alles
kann man auch als kontrollmaßnahmen bezeichnen, um die dinge im griff zu halten (wohlbemerkt da ist ein kleiner unterschied zu (zu haben).

so das wären so die parameter, diese sind auch nur scheinbar konstant, ablösung kann durchaus erfolgen,
wahrscheinlich aber nicht mehr in der natürlichen reihenfolge, sondern es wird ein tiefes loch gehauen werden.
ungefähr so wie die situiation am neuen markt, keiner glaubt
nichts mehr, egal was die leader dir verklickern wollen.
das paassiert jedoch erst wenn das chaos bereits eingetroffen
ist, jetzt gilt natürlich die solidarität den laden zusammenzuhalten, was natürlich auch ungeheure resourcen bindet, die wo anders fehlen müssen, profitieren werden die
die dieses system nicht unbedingt halten müssen, sie sind frei in der entscheidung, der rest kann nur mitziehen,
das kann man dann auch degradierung zu lemmlingen verstehen,
auf jeden fall nix unabhängikeit, man mußes wieder mal,
die not schweißt zusammen, verkaufen. nur das system wird
immer teuer und bringt der gesellschaft an sich immer weniger nutzen, im gegenteil es vernichtet enorme werte,
der aufwand zwischen neuen economies steht in keinem verhältnis
mehr, die ausgaben dafür sind übertrieben zu hoch und werden
zudem sinnlos (da ja viel geld vorhanden ist ) verpulvert.
die quitessenz - der bodensatz ist dann so gering, daß er
eigentlich nicht mehr im verhältnis zum aufwand steht.
vielleicht kann das mal ein volkswirt, oder fahigerer mensch, wenn nicht schon getan, allerdings wäre mir lieb, wenn er nicht aus einem zu bestimmten lager kommen würde,
und sein lehre verbreiten will in einem besseren artikel,
als ich es kann zum ausdruck bringen, bei mir ist das halt
sehr viel kopfgedanken arbeit, die sich auch dadurch auszeichnet daß ich nach an diesem system arbeite, also
gar keine wege oder auswege suche, sondern lediglich der reine beobachter bin.

zu morgan:
also damit ist es ja nicht getan.
morgan handelt ja mit seinen bonds etc. wie ein rückversicherer, die bonds werden gestript, sodaß hier also
noch so 50% der summe, andere gesellschaften etc beteiligt sein müssen, sollte morgan abschreiben müssen, können die
genossen auch in zugzwang kommen, das heißt ganz einfach,
der bedarf an geld wird ein vielfach höherer, auch wenn sich die verschuldungsumme nicht nach oben mulipliert.
das motto heißt dann mitgehangen- mitgefangen, die summe
von morgan allein ist gar nicht maßgebend, da kann ein
kleiner oder riesiger rattenschwanz dranhängen.dasselbe kann natürlich auch von hinten aufgezäumt werden, morgan könnte an und für sich gesund sein, aber der gestank kommt vom schwanz.

gruß dosto
hoffentlich habe ich mich einigermaßen verständlich ausgedrückt, das ist für mich und ich bitte um nachsicht,
gar nicht so einfach, da ich fürs wirtschaftliche beitragschreiben, nicht geschult bin.
aber vielleicht reicht ja der gedanke schon aus,
ich nehme ja an und ich weiß es , daß ihr weiterdenkt und euch euren eigenen reim machen könnt.

[dosto]

12:17PM Enron shares plummeting (ENE) by Leticia Williams
Enron (ENE) shares lost almost a fifth of their value Monday after the company announced that it has been asked by the Securities and Exchange Commission to voluntarily provide information pertaining to certain related-party transactions. There has been no comment from the SEC regarding the investigation. According to a release, Enron said that the company will cooperate fully with the investigation. Enron`s shares have lost about $22, or at least half of their value, since Kenneth Lay took over as the company`s chairman and CEO. Shares fell $5.02, or 19 percent, to $21.03 in recent trading


leider noch ein schlechtes signal;
enron kommt von 85 $
gehört als gaswerk , zur basic industrie in den usa.

der gesammte sektor der versorger ist total überschuldet
und bildet zudem die witwen und waisenaktien (die, die
dividende der ami-rentner zahlen soll und muß).
also gar nicht mehr bewegungsfähig, sondern wahrscheinlich
(m. erachtens) nur noch durch eklatante preiserhöhungen
zu retten.
hier baut sich die nächste zwickmühle auf, die noch nicht
im kalkül der witschaftsplaner ist, was wird sein
wenn bestimmte teile der basic-industrie pleite geht,
wer steht für die schulden ein, und wer bezahlt die witwen und waisen.
da wird dann wohl wieder der steuerzahler herhalten müssen.

gruß dosto
also hier ist mächtig dampf in der utility-industrie
versammelt, bin mal gespannt wie lange man da noch schludern und sich durchwursteln kann.

[nilrem]

hallo dosto
vielen dank für deine antwort.
soweit ich dich richtig verstanden habe,ist der $ einer deiner Parameter die eine veränderung der wirtschaftslage anzeigen könnte.
sollte der $ also gegen yen und euro fallen,dann ist gefahr im verzug.dann findet also die globalisierung der märkte nicht mehr statt.Die vor allem USA vorteile brachte,nähmlich rohstoffe für wenig und wissen für viel geld.
der dollar ist für mich das markenzeichen für die expansion der fantasie.und keiner vesteht marketing so gut wie die AMI`s.
ich versuche darauf zu achten.
gruß nilrem

[boursin]

@ nilrem,
da steckst du! hatte dir bei cabinda #636 geschrieben.
gruß
boursin

[dosto]

nilrem

100% auf den nenner gebracht.

[Gulliver]

ist das jetzt der derivate putzer - wohl kaum:

Jack Welch`s next move
October 24, 2001: 2:02 p.m. ET

Former General Electric CEO will become an advisor to J.P. Morgan Chase.

NEW YORK (CNNmoney) - J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. said Wednesday former General Electric Co. Chairman and CEO Jack Welch will join the No. 2 U.S. bank holding company as an adviser.


New York-based J.P. Morgan said Welch`s primary focus will be to work with CEO William Harrison on the continued development of an integrated corporate culture at Morgan.

Welch, who joined New York buyout firm Clayton Dubilier & Rice as a special partner earlier this month, led GE for 20 years to build it into one of the world`s largest and most valuable companies.

"We`re very pleased Jack Welch will work with us on these critical initiatives," Harrison said. "His commitment to organizational learning helped make GE one of the world`s great companies."

J.P. Morgan (JPM: Research, Estimates) merged with Chase last year to form a global financial powerhouse, and the combined entity still is digesting the deal to become a more cohesive unit.

Shares of J.P. Morgan were up 37 cents to $36.13 early Wednesday afternoon on the New York Stock Exchange.

[dosto]

think deeper

ge- ist auch eine bank.

[Dallas]

GE...ist auch ne Versicherung

gruss Dallas

[dosto]

was ist ge eigentlich nicht

ge ist amerika

[dosto]

10/26 10:37
Enron Bonds Fall as Company Taps $3 Bln Credit Line (Update1)
By Mark Johnson


Houston, Oct. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Enron Corp. bonds declined after the company tapped a $3 billion credit line as investors expressed concern the largest energy trader`s credit rating may be cut, reducing its ability to finance day-to-day operations.

Enron`s stock fell after investors raised questions about the company`s transactions with affiliated companies run by its former chief financial officer. Enron tapped credit lines to restore confidence in its financial strength, spokesman Mark Palmer said.

Concerns that executives used affiliates to profit at the company`s expense have shut Enron out of commercial paper markets, where short-term loans carry lower rates than banks offer. The company will use its credit line to pay off $2.2 billion in commercial paper it has outstanding, Palmer said.

``People are questioning the credibility of management,`` said John Cassady, who helps manage $3 billion of fixed income assets at Fifth Third Bancorp. ``It looks like the guy who was supposed to do everything for the benefit of shareholders was running partnerships for the benefit of himself.``

The company`s 6 3/4 percent bonds which mature in 2009 declined 1 1/2 points to a bid of 84 cents on the dollar and an offer of 86 cents. At that price, the bonds, which carry a rating of ``BBB+,`` yield 9.53 percent.

Though Enron`s bonds have investment-grade ratings, their yield at current prices is higher than those of industrial bonds that carry junk ratings. According to Bloomberg data, companies with ``BB`` ratings pay on average 9.16 percent to borrow for seven years.

Enron`s shares have dropped 52 percent in the past 10 days as investors grew concerned that the company`s credit rating will be cut after $1.01 billion in third-quarter losses from failed investments. Enron needs good credit to raise cash daily to keep trading partners from demanding collateral and to settle transactions.

Investors say they are worried about $3.3 billion in liabilities from affiliates formed to buy and sell Enron assets. Enron ousted Chief Financial Officer Andrew Fastow on Wednesday amid a Securities and Exchange Commission inquiry into partnerships he ran that cost the company at least $35 million.

Jeff McMahon, head of Enron`s industrial markets group, was named CFO in a bid to restore investor confidence, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Kenneth Lay said in a statement.

Enron shares fell 82 cents to $15.53 in midmorning trading.


und die basic-industrie spielt weiter auf der verschuldungs-
schiene
stahl ist bereits tot, jetzt waren es die unfairen ausländer,
protecions plaese mr. bush.
die versorger sind schon überverschuldet.
das habe system ist aber noch kommunistisch reguliert,
wenn man den puren ami-standpunkt zu rate zieht.

die entwertung der bond-und aktienwerte in amerika nimmt
seinen vollen lauf,
auch eine art der entschuldung.
fehlt nur noch, daß der $ auch noch waffe für die guten
herhalten soll, mit einer riesigen gewollten abwertung,
das würde doch das fremdkapital vaporiesen- oder nicht-
gleichzeitg wird nicht vorhandene, oder die restrindustrie,
chemie, papier, stahl etc wieder wettbewergsfähig,
und computer gibts dann scheißbillig.

[Gulliver]

wenn der dollar fällt - fällt amerika - und die gesamte wirtschaftswelt!

cu Gulliver

[dosto]

nicht die gesamte
aber ein erheblicher teil.

wirtschaft wirds immer geben, auch ohne amerikaner,
so heißt das
und nicht
ohne amerikaner keine wirtschft

die wirtschaft war bereits da, da war von amerika
weit und breit keine spur.
siehe asien, persien, china, der gesamte mittelmeerraum
war ein wirtschaftsgebiet, unter den griechen, den phöniziern, den römern usw und so fort.

[dosto]

hey gulliver

josef hat mir grad am telefon gesagt, unsere wirtschaft (kneipe) geht nicht unter
inventurbestand

212 flaschen pisco
1817 flaschen wein
400 büchsen bohnen
250 büchsen ananas
200 gläser guaven marmelade
5.000 portionen instant cafe
usw uns so fort

also josef hat die bude in florianopolis am strand,
ich lade dich ein, wenns schief geht, schwimmen wir dort hin
(falls es kein flugzeug mehr gibt, oder keinen sprit dorthin) schiff hab ich leider hier auch nicht mehr, vielleicht leiht uns woernies seinen kahn)
ein jahr können wir dort unseren bauch in sonne halten und
auf die wirtschaft pfeiffen, in deinen biographie gibt
das halt den berühmten durchhäng-knick, den jeder überleben muß.

vielleicht steigen wir dann zwischenzeitlich auf kauri-muschel-währung um, dann müssen wir halt den strand rauf und
runter latschen um unser geld zu verdienen.

[Dallas]

@ dosto und Gulliver...ICH will mit......

@ dosto...ich sehe keine Zutaten für *frozen Margaritas*...Tequilla...Triple Sec und LimeJuice...und einen Mixer...den rest erledige ich dann selber...

gruss Dallas

[dosto]

na mixer gehört zum inventar

den rest geb ich mal durch, damit wir das zeug da haben,
denn nach oaxaca zu laufen und teque- oder mesqual
zu holen, ist wohl zu weit.
a limonenbäumchen, ham ma auch im garten stehen.

[Gulliver]

florianopolis -

hört sich nett an! wieso nicht?!

also die hiesigen zentralbanken der welt haben ihre devisenreserven zu 80% in dollar geparkt!


klar gehts immer weiter, die exporter wi hp, dell, mcd würd ein schwacher dollar sowieso erfreuen, nem absturz kann sich bei der heutigen verknüpfung wohl kaum noch ein land entziehen. aber du hast ja netterweise vorgesorgt.


war letztes wochenende auf vortrag von markus koch (n-tv korrespondent new york) zwar nichts wirklich neues gelernt aber ein statement war interessant: wenn sich zu viel kapital auf zuwenige menschen konzentriert sind die ereignisse der letzten zeit fast unvermeidbar.

so eine äußerung von einem wahlamerikaner der mit kapitalismus-berichterstattung seine piepen verdient ist echt erstaunlich.

cu Gulliver

[Gulliver]

Japans Wirtschaftskrise nimmt immer bedrohlichere Formen an

Von Lars Nicolaysen, dpa

Tokio (dpa) - Japan droht die schlimmste Rezession seit zehn Jahren. Nach Einschätzung der Zentralbank wird Japans Wirtschaft voraussichtlich in diesem und im nächsten Jahr schrumpfen. Angesichts empfindlicher Rückgänge der Industrieproduktion und Exporte kamen Nippons Notenbanker nicht umhin, ihre Wachstumsprognose vom April für das bis März 2002 laufende Fiskaljahr über den Haufen zu werfen.

Erstmals wurde damit offiziell zugegeben, dass sich die zweitgrößte Wirtschaftsnation der Welt in einer Rezession befindet. Japans Wirtschaftskrise nimmt dabei immer bedrohlichere Formen an: Die Industrieproduktion war im September unerwartet stark um 2,9 Prozent im Vergleich zum Vormonat auf den tiefsten Stand seit Januar 1994 gesunken, wie die Regierung mitteilte. Im Vergleich zum Vorjahr sind es sogar 12,7 Prozent, der stärkste Rückgang seit Mai 1975.

Mit am schärfsten drosselten in den vergangenen sechs Monaten die Elektronikkonzerne die Produktion. Zugleich wollen sie Zehntausende Arbeitsplätze abbauen. Auch die Autokonzerne fuhren ihre Fertigung im ersten Halbjahr um 2,8 Prozent auf 4,8 Millionen Wagen zurück.

Sollten sie dem Arbeitsplatzabbau der Elektronikfirmen folgen, wird die bereits rekordhohe Arbeitslosigkeit weiter steigen. Angesichts der doppelt so hohen Produktionskürzungen wie von den Industrieunternehmen vor den Terroranschlägen in den USA angekündigt, sackte Tokios Börse am Montag deutlich ab: Der Nikkei-255-Index büßte 182,85 Punkte oder 1,7 Prozent auf 10 612,31 Zähler ein. Nach Einschätzung der Zentralbank wird die Wirtschaftsleistung des Landes im laufenden Fiskaljahr um bis zu 1,2 Prozent und im folgenden Jahr möglicherweise um bis zu 1,1 Prozent schrumpfen.

Im April hatte sie noch mit einem Wachstum für das laufende Fiskaljahr zwischen plus 0,3 und 0,8 Prozent gerechnet. Die Regierung wird schon bald nachziehen und ihre völlig unrealistische Prognose von 1,7 Prozent auf etwa minus 0,8 Prozent fürs laufende Jahr senken müssen.

Die Zentralbank verwies bei ihrer düsteren Prognose auf den weltweiten Wirtschaftsabschwung und die Folgen der geplanten Strukturreformen in Japan hin. Dennoch ließ sie ihre Geldpolitik unverändert. Angesichts eines weiteren Verfalls der Verbraucherpreise dürfte sie die Zinsen zumindest vorerst bei nahezu Null belassen.

Zentralbank-Gouverneur Masaru Hayami hatte wiederholt die Regierung und die Finanzinstitute aufgefordert, schneller am Abbau der die ganze Wirtschaft lähmenden Problemkredite von geschätzt 150 Billionen Yen (2,7 Billionen DM/1,4 Billionen Euro) zu arbeiten.

Regierungschef Junichiro Koizumi muss sich denn auch wachsender Kritik wehren, seinen Reformversprechungen mangele es an konkreten Taten: Der zunehmende Widerstand gegen die Reformen zeige, dass es Fortschritte gebe, sagt er. Koizumi hatte auch angekündigt, die Staatsausgaben zu senken. Inzwischen ist bereits von einem zweiten Nachtragshaushalt die Rede. Japan steckt in einem Teufelskreis.

[Gulliver]

10/29 18:25
Argentina Signals Default on $38 Billion of Debt (Update6)
By John Lyons


Buenos Aires, Oct. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Argentina signaled it would default on at least $38 billion of bonds held by international investors by hiring Merrill Lynch & Co. to help exchange debt for new securities.

The country`s bonds, already rated by Moody`s Investors Service the lowest in the world, tumbled. The yield on the floating rate bond due 2005 climbed to a record 42.6 percent.

The government said Merrill Lynch International President Jacob Frenkel, former governor of Israel`s central bank, would head a group advising Argentina on issuing new securities to investors. To reduce Argentina`s debt burden, the new bonds would have to pay lower interest and have longer maturities than the nation`s outstanding bonds, analysts said.

``If you cram a restructuring onto someone, it`s essentially a default,`` said Charles Cassel, who helps manage $450 million in emerging market assets at Standard Asset Management and sold most Argentine holdings last year. ``They are saying if you don`t help us out now, you will end up getting far less.``

Argentine Economy Minister Domingo Cavallo said the debt exchange would be voluntary and include guarantees from international lenders; he didn`t say what the country would do if investors don`t accept the terms. Standard & Poor`s, which also cut its credit rating for Argentina, has said it would characterize such a transaction as a default if the bonds investors receive have lower value than what they already own.

Widely Held

Argentina`s bonds, which represent about a quarter of all international emerging market debt and now yield more than any other, have been widely held, including earlier this year by such investors as J.P. Morgan Investment Management, Putnam Investment Management and the Lutheran Brotherhood. The yield spread of Argentina`s bonds over U.S. Treasuries with comparable maturity widened to 20.14 percentage points, according to a J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. index.

``Unless there`s something I don`t understand, I don`t see how this could be voluntary,`` said Abel Viglione, a senior economist at Argentine research company Fiel. ``It sounds compulsory to me, more like a bankruptcy.``

Finance Undersecretary Julio Dreizzen, who has helped Argentina raise financing since President Fernando de la Rua`s government took office in December 1999, resigned today, citing personal reasons, the Economy Ministry said.

Unlike in the late 1980s when Argentina stopped making interest payments, the government is sending a message to investors that interest, though reduced, still will be paid. It is lining up financing and announcing the restructuring before the country misses any debt payments.

Legal Contracts

That is significant because some investors are in legal contracts that define a default as a missed payment. Moody`s and S&P indicated this month they may take a broader view of default after the government demanded domestic banks and pension funds accept new securities paying 7 percent interest for at least $14 billion of bonds that offer interest of about 25 percent.

Moody`s, which cut Argentina`s foreign and local currency debt ratings Oct. 12 to ``Caa3,`` said the government may be ``resorting to unorthodox solutions to the country`s financial problems.``

On Oct. 16, S&P issued a statement to clarify its rating downgrade on Argentina the week before to say that any exchange that offers investors less favorable terms would be considered ``distressed`` and constitute an effective default. Officials at both rating agencies wouldn`t comment today.

IMF Loans

Cavallo said the country will depend on International Monetary Fund loans and support from the seven most industrialized nations to carry out the transaction. It wants to guarantee new bonds with $3 billion earmarked from the IMF as well as other loans. Cavallo probably also will ask the IMF, which had a team in Buenos Aires today, to speed up a $1.2 billion loan payment scheduled for December, analysts said. IMF officials wouldn`t comment.

``We are going forward with an operation to lower interest rates, which will be voluntary, without affecting investors or depositors,`` Cavallo said on national television last night. ``The plan is ready and has consensus, but before we can announce details, there are still deals to be worked out with the International Monetary Fund and banks.``

Merrill Lynch`s Frenkel didn`t return calls for a comment.

Markets

Argentina`s floating rate bond due 2005 fell 10.8 to an offer price of 56, pulling down emerging market bonds from Brazil to Ukraine. The benchmark Merval stock index fell 8.7 percent to 219.54, a 10-year low.

The one-month contract for delivery of Argentine pesos fell to 1.0325 pesos per dollar from 1.0237, reflecting increasing investor concern the government may give up a decade- old system that has pegged the peso one-to-one with the dollar.

Argentina has been in this position before. Along with most other Latin American countries, Argentina defaulted on government debt it sold in London in the 1820s and on state and federal government obligations it contracted in the 1920s.

In 1992, the country issued about $25 billion of so-called Brady bonds in exchange for debts accumulated in the late 1970s. Other countries that restructured defaulted debt, such as Mexico, cut spending, reducing their dependence on foreign capital. Mexican floating-rate bonds that mature in 30 years yield about 8.5 percent.

Argentina raised about $89 billion on capital markets in the past 10 years, most through foreign bond sales, to help finance a widening budget deficit.

Wage Cuts

In the past several months, the government has tried to reduce the deficit by cutting state wages and pensions by 13 percent, raising taxes and slowing tax transfers to provincial governments. Still, tax collection fell 14 percent in September and the government has faced increased opposition from workers, the unemployed and provincial leaders to its cost-cutting plans.

The country has a total $132 billion of public debt, including about $95 billion of bonds. The government estimates international investors hold about $38 billion of the bonds; Merrill says the amount is $45 billion worth, while other banks put it as high as $55 billion.

Banks had $66 billion of cross-border exposure to Argentina, including local claims in foreign currencies, as of March 31, according to the Bank for International Settlements. FleetBoston Financial Corp. reported $2.24 billion of Argentine exposure as of June, while J.P. Morgan Chase said it had $1.4 billion after subtracting what it considered collateral, such as hedging contracts.

[Gulliver]

Blodget leaving Merrill Lynch (MER) by Anne Stanley
Analyst Henry Blodget is leaving Merrill Lynch (MER). Blodget told The New York Times he had accepted a buyout that Merrill Lynch offered to nearly 50,000 workers. "It just seemed like a good time to pursue the next thing," Blodget, 35, told the newspaper. Blodget became notorious among investors after he predicted that shares of Amazon.com would soar to $400 in 1998. At the time, the Seattle-baed e-tailer`s stock was around $240 a share, but did eventually surpass $400 a share. The Associated Press noted he took criticism about his stock picks, including Pets.com and EToys, both of which failed before they turned a profit. Shares of Merrill Lynch gained $1 on Wednesday to close at $51.90.

[Ken_meyer]

Die Treasuries sind durch die Bank zurück auf
dem Level vor der Manipulation der 30-jährigen
durch O`Neill. Also kann auch dieser Trick als
gescheitert betrachtet werden.


und übrigens, wirft man ein so kostbares "asset" wie
Blödsched raus, wenn man an den bevorstehenden
Bullenmarkt glaubt?! Armer Henry

[gourmet]

@ken: ist doch ganz einfach (würde ich an henrys stelle nicht anders machen): er bekommt 2 mio $, investiert diese in aktien und wird richtig geld damit machen. außerdem hat nun zeit für ein buch, welches bestimmt auch jetzt noch verkauft wird und er macht noch mehr geld. "money money"
sang doch schon die liza in "life is a caberet"
viele grüße
gourmet

[Ken_meyer]

@gourmet

manchmal hab ich den Eindruck, du liest zuviele
wallstreet Märchen

gruss

ken

[gourmet]

@ken, wie ? hast du das buch "wie verkaufe ich einem eskimo einen kühlschrank" etwa nicht ? im kapitel "amazon ist 400 $ wert" steht die geschichte ganz genau beschrieben.
viele grüße
gourmet

[Gulliver]

Presse: Oracle Japan will Preise für Software um 25 bis 40 Prozent reduzieren
TOKIO (dpa-AFX) - Die japanische Tochter des US-Konzerns Oracle will die Preise für ihre Datenbank-Software zwischen 25 und 40 Prozent senken. Die Preisreduzierungen sollten bereits kommenden Monat erfolgen, berichtet die Tageszeitung "Nihon Keizai Shimbum" ohne Quellenangabe. Damit wolle Oracle mit preisgünstiger Software anderer Hersteller konkurrieren./FX/as/rw

[dosto]

noch keine meldung, aber dostos ahnung,

wann werden worldcom-bonds zu junks erklärt?
its time fpr j-p. morgan,

nun wissen wir doch für was die 38 milliarden gebraucht werden, die sie mal gemeldet haben, denke aber das wird
nicht ausreichen meine herren, außerdem wird das wohl über
1 jahr auf dem markt lagern und gespielt werden.
das gibt ein spaß, wie in einem solchen szenario, die bullen
durch die arena getrieben werden, hoffen wir auf einen portugisischen stierkampf und keinen spanischen, also jedes
bullenwerk ist eigentlich nur ein strohfeuer und sonst gar nix, außer die bondhebel werden außer kraft gesetzt,
nach 1999 ist aber gar nix mehr gewiß, da es wahrscheinlich
die grenzmarke des aktienmarktes war, indem er moderne auf
den endgültigen weg in die postmoderne verlassen hat.

also nun stellt mal hübsch eure programme auf, die knallbonbons werden so oder so kommen, keiner weiß wann,
viele ahnen schon wo, long or mid time, sorry bad time,
oder gigantischer schwindel, es bleibt ein tradingjahr
ohne favoriten, ohne branche etc. anythings goes, rauf oder
runter, das chaos hat die macht, unsere big heros, der investmentbranche sind zu rumpelstielzchen degeneriert, ihre
verbale macht ist gebrochen, ihr nimbus besiegt.

es lebe der freie trader, je buku(ol)nistischer desto besser.

[Gulliver]

hi dostolino,

immer noch auf den phillipinen?!

für dich ist jpm doch wohl ein ausgemachter short - vielleicht nen kleinen bouncer abwarten häh!

elon mit gut 35% vertickt, war nett

hab mich gestern in lihry und kare reingedreht - drooy sieht von der stochhastik auch wieder nett aus, da hab ich dir endlich mal ne goldene henne nennen können, wie?

also schaun mer mal was wird

bin wieder im ländle - als posting time

cu gulliver

[Gulliver]

!

Dieser Beitrag wurde vom System automatisch gesperrt. Bei Fragen wenden Sie sich bitte an [e-mail]

[dosto]

yep gulliver

mit drooy hast du einen dicken guten stein bei mir im brett.
zumal ich meinen goldwiderstand selbst ausräumte und nun
dicke in der patsche sitze.


zu deiner post,
williams und enron

es ist ja unheimlich interessant, daß beide companies unheimlich auch in broadband etc. investiert haben, und so
die zulieferindustrie, yep unsere heißgeliebten fibers mit optics etc. richtig in schwung gebracht haben. die beiden
und auch GX sowie worldcom, können jetzt nicht mehr mit kohle rumwerfen, geschweige den riesige aufträge erteilen,
also ist der ganze turn around in der zulieferindustrie,
cisco, redback, nortel, jdsu, corning, wohl eher abzuschreiben bzw. weiter nach hinten zu rücken.
das sind halt nun mal die unangenehmen auswirkungen, die
zusätzlich noch dazu kommen. die jungs hatten schon eingewicht für die zulieferer und nun ist erst mal so ziemlich schluß.

yes, ich sitz hier noch in der hotel-anlage, wir werden da
wohl das ganze umtransferieren und einen privaten club draus machen, denn mit tourismus hab ich nix am hut,
aber die bungalows kann ich im bekanntenkreis verschachern,
und damit ist unser schweizer wieder aus dem schneider, nachdem ich ihn von den banken gerettet habe, der rest muß
ihm jetzt zum leben reichen, einen job als alles in ordnung
halter der bezahlt wird, hat er auch noch, nun muß er sich sein paradies für den rest einteilen, das hat er meiner frau
zu verdanken, die sich in dieses stückchen erde dramatisch
verliebt hat, weil sie den ganzen tag über die berge und
täler mit fernglas vögel jagen kann, und uns trottel von ehemänner nix anderes einfällt als am swimming pool zu liegen und die börse zu beobachten, sidney, tokio, hk,frankfurt, new york, wer hat bloß unser hirn programiert?


pps. ich habe heute euch noch mal lihirt.
ich werd auch weiter lihiren.

[Gulliver]

neid!!! aus dem verregneten Schwabenland,

ne im ernst ich gönns dir, werd mich nächsten sommer wohl auch in die richtung aufmachen, freundin will allerdings lieber südspanien!

cu gulliver

bei lihry könnt kritisch sein, dass sie im gegensatz zu drooy relativ stark gehedged sind, nicht so viel upvolumen bei steigendem goldpreis, bleibt der konstant ist die earningssituation sehr solide

pass auf silber auf: speziell paas als perle (billie boy investiert), da ist die situation explosiv, stell mal ein beinchen in die tür!!!

p.s. sowas wie row bitte nächste mal vorher posten - grins (die sind dir bestimmt auch nur wegen dem anstieg gescreent worden, oder?)

[dosto]

ach da wär noch was,

tyco hat in diesem monat so 30 milliarden market cap vernichtet, das ist ja auch kein pappenstil.


ps: riese -row- hab ich schon mal gebracht, hab ich schon
mal kurz danach wieder verkauft, muß nun gestehen zu
schnell gehandelt zu haben, und habe montag schon nachgesetzt. bei den bouncern weiß man ja nie.
ja lihir kann aber ganz locker aus dem cash flow leben,
das sind ja welche die so nen richtigen flow haben,
ich peile jetzt erst mal 1 euro an, bislang wurde ich
von den gurken noch nicht enttäuscht, da bleib ich long,
mit dem versuch mal nen gewinn mitzunehmen, das geld aber wieder zurückzustecken und evt. step by step neues setzen,
ich hab nix anderes, das einen derartigen trend hat, bei
aller skepsis, aber ich bins halt den gewohnt den markt zu spielen und verzichte auf taschenbillard um mich einzulullen.

[dosto]

#1271 von dosto 11.01.02 21:59:18 Beitrag Nr.:5.316.019 Posting versenden 5316019
dallas danke.

das mit den umsatzen juckt mich nicht so, im notfall mach ich das alleine.

ich hab noch 2 titel
heftig interessant, aber noch nicht analisiert von mir
kann wieder nicht feststellen, ob in deutschland gehandelt, falls einer was entdeckt, wäre ich auch hier für die wkn dankbar
finanztreff zeigt null an.

also
einmal für die couch-potateos interested investment, denke die amis werden mehr und mehr die couch drücken, bei dem spannenden tv, und all den hergelaufenen nachbarn.

ROW

gulliver aus öl, so ziemlich a point gemeldet, jetzt wird das ding gargekocht bis zur verhärtung

[dosto]

UPDATE 3-McLeodUSA files for bankruptcy backed by Forstmann
THURSDAY, JANUARY 31, 2002 3:18 PM
- Reuters U.S. Company News


01-31 0813 UPDATE 3-McLeodUSA files for bankruptcy backed by Forstmann

(Adds portfolio manager quotes, details)

By Siobhan Kennedy

NEW YORK, Jan 31 (Reuters) - Local telephone company McLeodUSA Inc. (MCLD) on Thursday filed for bankruptcy -- the latest in a rash of bankruptcies in the battered telecommunications industry -- with a reorganization plan that will erase about $3 billion in bond debt.

The Chapter 11 petition was filed in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Delaware and listed assets of $4.79 billion and total debt of $4.57 billion. Chapter 11 bankruptcy protects companies from debts or liabilities during reorganization.

As part of the restructuring, buyout firm Forstmann Little & Co. said it invested an additional $175 million in the telecoms firm, making it the largest shareholder of McLeodUSA, with an approximate 58 percent holding.

"It`s the best solution for the company," said a portfolio manager with a large Midwestern mutual fund company who asked not to be named. "You`ve reached the end of the line for a number of these companies. They hung on for as long as they could and now they`re starting to topple like dominoes."

The bankruptcy marks the latest meltdown in telecommunications, which earlier this week was rattled by the bankruptcy of Global Crossing Ltd. (GBLXQ) (GX) , a warning from Level 3 Communications Inc. (LVLT) that it might violate a credit agreement and dismal growth forecasts from companies such as Qwest Communications International Inc. (Q)

McLeod`s stock, trading in which was halted on the Nasdaq on Thursday, has lost almost all of its value, closing at 18 cents on Wednesday. That`s far below its 52-week high of $21.125 and off from an all-time high of about $35 in March 2000 when the dot.com and tech bubble peaked


another 3 milliarden in bonds,
hui das ist ja eine money-vaporisation in diesem jahr.
wer ist der nexte?

[Groupier]

Mc Leod ?

Ist das nicht die Firma von Ex-Netscape Boss Marc Andreesen ?

Wohl noch´n Inet-Träumchen endgültig geplatzt.

[dosto]

5:08AM Aflac downgraded; Swiss Life shares down (AFL, DE:924035) by Emily Church
Merrill Lynch dropped life insurer Aflac (AFL) from a mid-term "strong buy" to a low-ranked "neutral" overnight, telling clients it was less confident in Aflac`s long-term growth rate. "The top-line growth outlook does not seem to support mid-teens earnings per share growth," the broker said. Aflac sells supplemental insurance in the US and generates 80 percent of sales in Japan, according to Hoovers data. Elsewhere, European life insurance stocks were mainly lower on Friday after a second profit warning from Swiss Life (DE:924035), Switzerland`s largest life insurer. Swiss Life shares dropped 10 percent in mid-morning Zurich trading.


ja,ja da ist doch noch der zweig (branche) die 2002 zeigen
muß, wies mit ihr steht, die versicherer und rück, mal sehen
wie sie mit dem zinszenario umgehen, hoffentlich muß greene
nicht anziehen, oder noch weiter runtergehen, eigentlich
kann er nur noch wimmern, von dem sockel aus.

groupier

well, smelt roses are gone,

aus den hypes wirst du noch mehr erleben, zuerst die kapitalintensiven -telcom-
dann die zulieferanten
und dann, die jenigen die sich lediglich durch die hohen ipo-einnahmen zeit und luft gekauft haben,
der sektor wird bereinigt, sowahr ich d..........

[Gulliver]

hey dostoline,

kleine wette gefällig?!

ich sach: pog ende des jahres über 310, du höchstens 290!

einsatz: runde cai pirinha in floriana

gewinnst du zahl ich die cocktails, du den rest!

gewinn ich zahlst du alles, häh?!

cu gulliver

[dosto]

US Corp Bonds-GE Capital sells $11 bln debt
WEDNESDAY, MARCH 13, 2002 6:03 PM
- Reuters U.S. Company News

By Jonathan Stempel

NEW YORK, March 13 (Reuters) - U.S. corporate bonds lagged Treasuries on Wednesday, as investors eagerly awaited the $11 billion bond sale by General Electric Co.`s (GE) finance arm, which took place late in the day.

"Everything is a little wider," an investment-grade trader said. "Just waiting for GE. We`re seeing a little bit of weakness in the auto sector, but nothing too pronounced."

In secondary trading, spreads, the yield difference between corporate bonds and comparable maturity U.S. Treasuries, widened 0.02 to 0.04 percentage point.

Junk bond prices were roughly unchanged in unusually slow trading. "It`s pretty much status quo; it`s extremely quiet," said one trader.

The 30-year Treasury weakened after General Electric Capital Corp. boosted the 30-year bond portion of its sale to a record $5 billion from $3 billion.

Ten- and 30-year Treasuries closed up 8/32 and down 9/32, respectively, with yields of 5.279 and 5.747 percent.

GE CAPITAL

The GE Capital unit of Fairfield, Connecticut-based GE nearly doubled its sale from $6 billion after receiving what one investor said was $22 billion of bids.

The largest prior bond sale by a U.S. company was WorldCom Inc.`s (WCOM) $11.9 billion multi-currency sale last May. As part of that sale, WorldCom sold $10.1 billion of dollar-denominated bonds, also the most every.

"Eleven billion dollars," said Stephen Mahoney, who invests $4 billion in bonds for Glenmede Trust Co. in Philadelphia. "If I were a corporate treasurer, it`s a very smart move. Corporate treasurers are deciding this may be the last opportunity to fund their business at low interest rate levels."

GE Capital sold $4 billion of three-year floating-rate notes yielding 0.125 percentage points more than three-month Libor (London Interbank Offered Rate); $2 billion of five-year notes yielding 5.395 percent, and $5 billion of 30-year bonds yielding 6.844 percent.

J.P. Morgan, Lehman Brothers Inc. and Salomon Smith Barney arranged the sale. GE Capital has "triple-A" credit ratings.

CONVERTIBLES

Separately, in what could be a sign of good investor demand, Computer Associates International Inc. (CA) has changed the terms of its $500 million five-year convertible note sale, and potentially lowered its borrowing costs, people familiar with the sale said.

The Islandia, New York-based company`s notes are now expected to carry a 5 to 5.25 percent coupon and a 30 to 33 percent premium, they said. A 5 to 5.5 percent coupon and 25 to 30 percent premium had been expected. The sale is still expected Wednesday night.

Meanwhile, shares of battered telecommunications equipment provider Lucent Technologies Inc. (LU) fell on Wednesday to all-time lows, ahead of that company`s expected $1.5 billion 15-year trust preferred convertible securities sale.

Those securities are still expected to carry a 7.5 to 8 percent dividend and 18 to 22 percent premium.

Lucent shares tumbled 12 percent on Wednesday, after falling 10.7 percent on Tuesday.

Wednesday bond sales also included: an AIG SunAmerica (AIG) unit, $750 million; American General Finance, $250 million; CRH America Inc. (UK:CRH) , $1 billion; Eli Lilly and Co. (LLY) , $500 million; Joy Global Inc. (JOYG) , $200 million; Magnum Hunter Resources Inc. (MHR) , $100 million, and MGIC Investment Corp. (MTG) , $200 million.

[Gulliver]

GE may spin off property insurance unit (GE) by Anne Stanley
General Electric (GE) is considering a plan to split off its property and casualty insurance operations, according to a published report. That split of GE`s Employers Reinsurance Corp. could include an initial public offering of 20 percent of the unit later this year, the Wall Street Journal reported in its online edition early Friday. Such an IPO could be expected to value Employers Re at a total of $8 billion to $10 billion, the Journal said, citing people familiar with the matter. Any move to spin off the operation is at a very early stage and is exploratory, the Journal article cautioned. A GE Capital spokesman, John Oliver, was quoted as saying the company doesn`t comment on "market rumor and speculation." GE`s businesses include NBC, GE Power Systems and GE Capital, its big financial-services arm. Employers Re is a unit of GE Capital.

[dosto]

4:37PM Read-Rite CFO resigns for another job (RDRT) by Chris Kraeuter
Read-Rite (RDRT) CFO John T. Kurtzweil is leaving the disk drive and storage manufacturer to take an unspecified position with a semiconductor manufacturer outside of California. Andrew Holcomb, senior vice president of business development and general counsel, was named acting chief financial officer.

[Ken_meyer]

Der Spread zwischen den 90-Tage T-Bills und den
30-jährigen beträgt mittlerweile satte 200% und die Kluft
wächst täglich... Wir haben die Inflation komplett unter Kontrolle sagt Grünspan( read my lips, ähem CPI )

[Enzo_OT]

US-Finanzminsiter will an Politik des starken Dollars fest halten
WASHINGTON (dpa-AFX) - US-Finanzminister Paul O`Neill will an der so genannten Politik des starken Dollars festhalten. Diese Linie sei eine "konstante Größe", sagte O`Neill in einem Interview der Nachrichtenagentur AFX News. Es sei keine Abweichung von der Strategie vorgesehen, auf eine feste Notierung des Dollars gegenüber anderen Währungen zu achten.

Von den Klagen des Verarbeitenden Gewerbes in den USA über die Politik des starken Dollars fühle er sich nicht unter Druck gesetzt, sagte der Minister. Das Verarbeitende Gewerbe erhofft sich von einer Lockerung der Politik des starken Dollars Exporterleichterungen.

Das hohe US-Leistungsbilanzdefizit hält O`Neill indes für irrelevant für die Gestaltung der Dollar-Politik. Er handele sich dabei um eine bedeutungslose Größe in einer globalisierten Wirtschaft, schätzte er.

US-Notenbankchef Alan Greenspan hatte in der vergangenen Woche das US-Leistungsbilanzdefizit als unhaltbar bezeichnet. Volkswirte aus dem Privatsektor erwarten zu einem großen Teil, dass der US-Dollar angesichts dieses Defizits an Wert verlieren wird. O`Neill sagte dazu, dass die Kapitalflüsse sich an der risikobereinigten Rendite orientierten und nicht an den Leistungsbilanzdaten./FX/av/tv



US-Finanzminister: Gute Geldpolitik der Fed unabhängig von Person Greenspans
WASHINGTON (dpa-AFX) - Eine gute Geldpolitik der US-Notenbank Federal Reserve (Fed) hängt nach Ansicht von US-Finanzminister Paul O`Neill nicht von der Person des Fed-Präsidenten Alan Greenspan ab.

Es gebe eine Reihe von befähigten Personen, auf die zurückgegriffen werden könnte, wenn Greenspan eventuell zurücktreten sollte, sagte O`Neill in einem Interview der Nachrichtenagentur AFX News. Diese Feststellung wollte O`Neill aber nicht als Zeichen einer geringen Wertschätzung von Alan Greenspan verstanden wissen./FX/av/tv

...
o.t.

[gourmet]

@ken: wo siehst du inflation ? hatten wir in den letzten jahren überhaupt inflation oder schlichtweg einen aufgeblähten finanzmarkt, der so langsam jede ratio hinter sich gelassen hat (ich würde sagen letzteres). wer braucht denn 10 mal so viel fonds wie es börsennotierte unternehmen gibt, wer braucht 100 börsenzeitschriften etc.
viele grüße
gourmet
ps: ich würde es sogar begrüßen endlich mal wieder steigende preise zu sehen (und zwar nicht durch ökö-steuer, gebühren etc.) sondern bei waschmaschinen, pcs, fernseher, flugtickets, miete ...

[dosto]

8:32AM US Jan. trade gap widens to $28.5 bln by Rachel Koning
The balance of goods and services trade stood at a $28.5 billion deficit in January, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday. The deficit expanded more than 15 percent from December`s $24.7 billion, as energy imports increased and overall consumer demand for imported goods improved. The gap is wider than the $26.9 billion trade shortfall expected on Wall Street. The import-led deficit increase could prove at least a mild drag on gross domestic product growth for the first period. Analysts on average had expected growth to be revived to 3 or 3.5 percent on average for the first three months of the year. Merrill Lynch & Co. economists said Monday they believe growth could be as robust as 6 percent in that period. Exports were little changed on the month, totaling $77.96 billion after $78 billion in December. January imports reached $106.5 billion, a 3.6 percent increase from December`s $102.8 billion. The trade gap with OPEC increased while exports to Japan were at their lowest in eight years

[dosto]

9:40AM FDIC says real estate weakening by Greg Morcroft
The FDIC said Wednesday its latest report shows a continued slowing in the U.S. real estate market during the second half of 2001."Reports of somewhat worsening conditions were significantly higher compared to six months ago for all property markets but were most prevalent for the commercial markets," the agency said. The results were compiled from a nationwide poll of bank examiners and other specialists. The report said that respondents who offered comments attributed the deepening weakness in the commercial sectors to economic recession, continuing layoffs, and reduced travel after the September 11. The report added however, "In addition, observations that residential supply and demand were "in balance" outnumbered those of tight supply and excess supply. In fact, reports of balance in single-family markets rose to 51 percent -- the only positive movement noted in this survey, and an improvement from 42 percent in July 2001."

[dosto]

7:12AM Genesis Micro`s CFO resigns (GNSS) by Tomi Kilgore
Genesis Microchip (GNSS) said that Pete Mangan, its chief financial officer, will leave the company to pursue other interests. Eric Erdman will replace Mangan, returning to his former role of CFO. "We regret that Pete has chosen to leave, as he made a significant contribution during his tenure with us," said Amnon Fisher, the integrated circuits supplier`s chief executive. "We are pleased that Eric has agreed to step in. His experience and leadership will be instrumental as we expand our business to address additional opportunities in the display industry." The stock closed Tuesday down 29 cents at $29.32

[dosto]

5:20PM Amgen announces $2 billion buyback, shares up (AMGN) by Ted Griffith
Shares of Amgen rose 3 percent in after-hours trading after the No. 1 biotech firm said its board had approved a $2 billion stock buyback. The company said it has about $260 million remaining under a previous stock repurchase program. Amgen said it`s already repurchased 18.4 million shares, or about $1 billion in stock, in 2002. Shares of Amgen (AMGN) traded up $1.23 to $39.40 in recent dealings


wollen mal sehen, ob diese buy backs schule machen.

es gibt da so ne standard-meinung
das geld ist beim staat nicht gut aufgehoben.

wir wollen mal untersuchen, wie gut es in den einzelnen companies aufgehoben sein wird, bisher waren sie genauso burner wie jeder 3 welt staat. first country included.
man schaue sich mal die buy back programme von ibm an.
es hat nix genützt der kurs von IBM sagt alles.

vielleicht, und das ist meine quintessenz, ist das geld am besten beim shareholder aufgehoben, das heißt amgen
solls auszahlen entweder als dividende oder als einmalzahlung.
ham die denn soviel geld, die sind doch genauso verschuldet
wie andere, gut das ist dann halt standard, aber der standart ist halt bescheuert. oder-

einmal auf schulden, immer auf schulden
immer wieder ein stock split, dann die rückkäufe,
leider folgt der aktienkurs nicht.
verlierer der shareholder, aber diese comps halten shareholder so oder so für doofe schafe.
wann endlich treten die oberhammel denen mal in die hoden?

[Ken_meyer]

Schulden, das ist die Gretchenfrage. BuyBack auf Pump,
um die "Gewinne" zu pushen!?? Das US-Standardverfahren.

Einmal auf Crack, lange auf Crack; so seh ich das auch.

[Ken_meyer]

ZEICHEN einer mangelnden Absprache zwischen dem berüchtigten
Verbraucher und den Investitionsabteilungen der corporates!?

"U.S. Retail Sales Drop 0.9%, More Than Expected; Excluding Autos Fall 0.4%"

Grünspin wird sich Sorgen machen müssen ...

[dosto]

Diluted EPS ($) 0.32 0.15 0.30 0.30 0.28




Balance Sheet Mar 02 Dec 01 Sep 01 Jun 01 Mar 01


Cash 2,981.2 689.1 284.0 282.5 478.9


Net Receivables 525.1 497.2 481.5 377.5 431.7


Inventories 371.6 355.6 384.4 390.1 352.2


Total Current Assets 6,406.0 3,858.6 3,482.3 3,431.9 3,263.9


Total Assets 9,064.9 6,443.1 6,053.7 5,976.5 5,692.1




Short-Term Debt 99.9 99.9 100.0 99.9 99.2


Total Current Liabilities 1,068.2 1,002.9 722.5 735.9 819.1


Long-Term Debt 3,046.9 223.0 223.0 223.0 223.0


Total Liabilities 4,115.1 1,225.9 945.5 958.9 1,042.1




Total Equity 4,949.8 5,217.2 5,108.2 5,017.6 4,650.0


Shares Outstanding (mil.) 1,039.0 1,045.8 1,045.5 1,047.1 1,043.2


also die balance sheet ist was für merline:

weshalb wurden die long terms dermaßen erhöht.

vielleicht zum kauf von immunex, man wird sehen,
aber das sind schon ganz schöne angeber, sowiel auf einmal zu schultern.
die wachstumsmarge war ja auch nicht mehr das gelbe vom ei, im letzten jahr,
es ist eine siechtumsaktie, wie jede andere, gehalten von den
fundsmanagern der biotechfunds,
die sie aber scheinbar doch nicht halten können, oder wollen,
vielleicht ziehen auch einfach die leute ihr geld ab von den biotechfunds, da setzt die verkaufspirale so oder in gang. nun müssen sie ihren eigen senf kaufen, ja schon richtig um die gewinne schön zu halten,
ein growth-wert, der kein kretin werden darf, der leader
mitten im star war geschehen, die gute wallstreet, gegen
jämmerlich ängstliche anleger, die nicht mehr bereit sind jeden preis zu bezahlen, den sich die herren vorstellen, heute, morgen und irgendwann einmal.

[Groupier]

Die Sau(d)ischen-Oelscheiche sind von Fagan & Co per Trillionen Sammelklage wg. 9/11 neulich aufgeschreckt worden.

Angeblich denkt man(n) nun in den Sanddünen in und um Riad darüber nach ob es Ratsam wäre die Masse der 700 Milliarden Oel$$$s in den USA abzuziehen.

Weil man nicht darauf warten will bis die Kohle per US-Kongressbeschluss eingefroren wird.

Man beachte!
Die Besitzstände des Irans sind in den USA immer noch gesperrt.
Und werden immer wenn ein paar Amis mehr oder weniger Terroropfer werden oder behaupten es zu sein!
Ob mit bewiesener Iranbeteiligung oder vielleicht auch nicht großzügigst unter den Amiopfern (und nur denen) und deren Angehörigen verteilt. !!!


Also bei max. 700 Milliarden Kapitalabfluss aus den USA ???
Hmm! ich denke wenn das war wird fällt es mal der Dollar.

n8

Groupier

[dosto]

California`s Hypocritical Accounting
Commentary. Lee Berton is a journalist and consultant to the accounting department of the City University of New York`s Baruch College. The opinions expressed are his own.


By Lee Berton

Hoboken, New Jersey Sept. 18 (Bloomberg) -- California is the first state to match new federal legislation tightening accounting rules for business. At the same time, the state is covering a $23.6 billion shortfall in its state budget by pushing the envelope on accounting treatment of revenue and expenses.

Sounds like ``do as I say but not as I do.`` And one outside critic is especially stinging. Jean Ross, executive director of the California Budget Project, a nonpartisan research group based in Sacramento, maintains that the revenue ``created`` by the state is really ``deductions from future years` revenue or increases in future years` costs.`` They are really ``an illusion,`` she says.

David A. Costello, a CPA and president of the National Association of State Boards of Accountancy (NASBA), based in Nashville, Tennessee, agrees that state governments don`t always practice the best accounting procedures. ``It`s like the shoemaker with scuffed shoes,`` he says. But he also notes that many states are trying to put more public members on regulatory bodies that license accountants. ``While this wouldn`t force states to clean up their own acts, it could help reform accounting for business within the state,`` he says. ``And that could be a good first step to forcing the state itself to follow the best practices.``

According to Ross, here`s how California created revenue by borrowing from tomorrow:

California`s Way

The state is raising $4.5 billion through securitization of future settlements with tobacco companies.

California is ``using the anticipated payment stream from the companies to sell securities, which it calls certificates of participation, backed by the settlements as collateral, to cover current shortfalls in its $98.9 billion budget,`` she says. ``But this will sharply reduce the payments it gets in the future by the payouts on the certificates. It`s like borrowing from tomorrow to pay for yesterday.``

The state is borrowing $2 billion from such specific funds as revenue coming in from future fuel taxes and payments expected from a variety of lawsuits being settled over the next decade or so, Ross says.

And the state is increasing withholding for certain Real- estate transactions and on stock options.

``These provisions don`t increase the amount of taxes owed, but accelerate the state`s collection of taxes,`` Ross explains. This pushes collection of ``an estimated $625 million into 2002-03 that would otherwise have been paid in later years.``

Raising `Revenue`

California is also suspending businesses` net operating loss deductions for 2002 and 2003 but increasing the percentage of losses that businesses can carry forward and deduct from state taxes in 2004 and beyond.

``Over the long term, the revenue lost from the increased deductions will exceed the revenue raised by the suspension,`` says Ross. ``It will raise an estimated $1.2 billion in 2002-03 and $800 million in 2003-04, but cost $400 million in 2004-05 and increasing amounts thereafter.``

The state is also raising ``revenue`` by making bank bad- debt deductions stricter, reducing funding for mental-health services, shifting costs to counties for administering food stamps, and reducing funds and budgets for small business development and technology, trade and commerce lending and for administration of a student-loan forgiveness program, Ross says.

``The state is raiding every cookie jar and borrowing in every way it can,`` she says.

While some states are struggling to meet their operating budgets through dubious means, paradoxically they are also trying to reform state bodies that license accountants to practice in the state.

Just as the new federal legislation is creating a five-member independent board to oversee accounting for public companies, the states are also trying to put more public members on their state license boards, which regulate accountants

Regulatory Change

NASBA president Costello notes that California, which has a six-person state regulatory board with five CPA members, has just passed a law requiring a majority of four members to be from the public -- that is, non-accountants. Connecticut, with a seven- member board with four CPAs, is moving toward having a majority of the board as public members, he says. ``Both candidates for governor in Connecticut favor the move,`` he adds.

Most states have at least one public member on their regulatory board for accountants. But West Virginia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Dakota and the three U.S. territories of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Guam have boards composed entirely of accountants, says Costello.

He says it would improve the image of the states and the accountants who operate in each state if the number of public members were increased on the regulatory boards.

Costello says he fears that with the new federal law governing accountants who audit public companies many states will begin passing different laws for accountants who work for nonpublic businesses or entities. ``It would be a nightmare for hundreds of thousands of small businesses, banks, co-ops, hospitals and nursing homes to follow different rules in different states,`` he warns.

That`s why NASBA has scheduled a meeting of representatives from each of the boards for Oct. 9 in New Orleans to, as Costello calls it, ``harmonize,`` or bring closer together, state regulations for all accountants. ``We want to avoid a Tower of Babel,`` he says.

[dosto]

FRIDAY, OCTOBER 11, 2002 8:38 PM
- Reuters U.S. Company News

PALO ALTO, Calif., Oct 11 (Reuters) - Software maker Business Objects <BOBJ.PA> (BOBJ) on Friday joined high-tech shops Siebel Systems Inc. (SEBL) and Nvidia Corp. (NVDA) in offering employees a chance to trade in their "under water" stock options.

Under a plan outlined in a regulatory filing on Friday, Business Objects will allow its workers to swap "out-of-the-money" -- or unexercisable -- stock options for fewer, new options with strike prices reset to reflect trading levels at the time they are reissued.

Business Objects Chief Financial Officer Thom Weatherford told Reuters the company`s goal is to reduce the number of options outstanding, cut the related expense and give employees something in exchange.

He added that the company will not book a charge related to the options exchange program.

Wedbush Morgan Securities analyst Nathan Schneiderman called the plan a "mild negative" for investors.

"While it reduces the number of options outstanding and appeases employees (positives), it significantly increases the likelihood of dilution (a bigger negative)," Schneiderman said.

About 10 million, or 16 percent, of the company`s outstanding shares are in employee options, Weatherford said.

Of those, 4.7 million are eligible for the new program.

Earlier this year, software maker Siebel Systems gave its employees the chance to swap under water options for cash or stock. It has taking a charge of about $60 million related to the program.

Graphics chip maker Nvidia is letting its employees exchange virtually worthless options for fractions of shares, and is taking a charge of around $66 million


das geheimnisvolle umfled des high blechs lüftet sich weiter.

zuerst verdeckte gehaltzahlungen über aktienoptionnen sprich kosten.
und jetzt die zusätzlichen kosten der abschreibungen.
nix dosto trotz, die aktien kommen doch noch auf uns zu-sprich verwässerung, denn sie kommen ja jetzt wieder ins geld.

high-lichs bodablechle, wann hört diese verscheißerung der shareholder endlich auf.
diese ceo sind eigentlich nur durch aktienenthaltsamkeit zu strafen., man sollte sowas nicht anfassen, schon aus protest nicht.
das muß endlich aufhören,
aber nein, sie treibens bis in die unendlichkeit, wer zeigt
ihnen ihre grenzen?

[dosto]

03/20 13:41
HealthSouth Fraud Charges Raise Risk of Bankruptcy (Update3)
By Keith Snider


Birmingham, Alabama, March 20 (Bloomberg) -- HealthSouth Corp., the hospital operator accused of accounting fraud, may face bankruptcy unless bondholders and bankers restructure the company`s debt, analysts said.

Chief Executive Officer Richard Scrushy and HealthSouth inflated earnings by $1.4 billion since 1999, the Securities and Exchange Commission said Wednesday. The company suspended Scrushy and Chief Financial Officer William Owens today.

Standard & Poor`s Rating Service cut its grade on $3.3 billion of HealthSouth debt to CCC- and said the company may be close to a ``near-term credit default.`` HealthSouth has to cover payments on bonds that mature April 1 and guarantee bankers that the company won`t default on other debt.

``They have assets, but we don`t know what the true earnings of this company have been,`` said David Peknay, an S&P analyst. ``We don`t know what the real profit-making potential of the company is.``

HealthSouth, the largest U.S. operator of rehabilitation hospitals, is trying to avoid the fate of energy trader Enron Corp. and telephone company WorldCom Inc., which collapsed into bankruptcy after accounting scandals.

Loan Agreements

The company has to refinance about $345 million in bonds, S&P said. Peknay said the Birmingham, Alabama-based company might also need to negotiate bank loans because its fourth-quarter loss of $405.8 million may have violated terms of its agreements.

As of September, HealthSouth had borrowed $150 million from a $1.25 billion credit line arranged by J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. and Wachovia Corp., according to a November filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The money is due in 2007.

U.S. officials said yesterday that former Chief Financial Officer Weston Smith agreed to plead guilty to related securities fraud counts. Today, Scrushy and current CFO Owens were put on administrative leave, according to a company statement.

Scrushy has cooperated with the government`s investigation and was ``shocked and surprised`` by the charges, attorneys William Clark and Mark White said in a written statement.

Scrushy founded HealthSouth in 1984, when rehabilitation care was dominated by local hospitals. The one-time service station worker spent billions to build his hospital company through acquisitions. He signed marketing deals with sports teams and groups such as the Professional Bull Riders.

At 49, Scrushy was still playing guitar in a rock band last year. He often pilots HealthSouth`s fleet of 11 corporate planes.

Homes and Yacht

The executive has a $3 million lakefront weekend home in Alabama, a beachfront house on the Gulf of Mexico and a third house in Palm Beach, Florida, where he keeps a 92-foot yacht named ``Chez Soiree,`` the New York Times reported last year.

According to the Justice Department, Scrushy and an unidentified ``senior executive`` decided in 1997 that they needed to inflate earnings because the company`s results weren`t meeting Wall Street expectations. Ernst & Young LLP, the company`s auditor, oversaw the company`s books for the years being probed by the government.

HealthSouth executives conspired to use what the accounting staff called ``dirt`` to fill gaps between actual earnings and Wall Street forecasts, the U.S. charges said. Sessions held to discuss falsifying figures were called ``family meetings`` inside the company, the government said.

Bonus, Pay Inflated

Scrushy`s $6.5 million 2001 bonus and $5.2 million in salary from 1999 through 2001 were based on inflated earnings, the government said. HealthSouth has declined to discuss the probe.

The Justice Department signaled yesterday that it is pursuing criminal charges against Scrushy. The SEC, which filed a civil lawsuit, wants to ban him from ever serving as an officer or director of a public company.

``I have a hard time seeing how he survived this long,`` said Michael Barr, an analyst with Victory Capital Management, which sold its HealthSouth shares last year. ``He`s the chairman and the CEO and it`s been communicated by people in the industry that he is running the board. I don`t know who else you would hold accountable.``

HealthSouth`s board should start by firing Scrushy and any other executives who are tainted by the fraud charges, said Leo Dierckman, a fixed-income analyst for Conseco Capital Management, which manages about $25 billion and has held HealthSouth bonds.

``He was trying to increase his stock price and obviously what he did was wrong,`` Dierckman said. ``I can`t imagine how he could stay. There`s no way.``

No Quick Fix

Scrushy`s departure wouldn`t end HealthSouth`s problems, according to analysts. The board may need to sell HealthSouth`s profitable surgery centers or other pieces of the business to raise cash, they said.

The first challenge will be working with bankers who may be asked to refinance the company`s convertible debt if the company doesn`t have enough cash on hand to pay it, said SG Cowen Securities Corp. analyst Kemp Dolliver, who has a ``market perform`` on HealthSouth and doesn`t own shares.

HealthSouth overstated its cash by more than $300 million and assets by more than $1.5 billion in last year`s second quarter, the U.S. charges. In regulatory filings, the company said it had $545 million in cash as of June 30 and $389.4 million as of Sept. 30.

Banks may be unwilling to take on further risk without knowing HealthSouth`s earnings and the value of its assets.

``Is this company still going to be able to find capital, either from the equity or the fixed-income markets?`` said Charles Haff, an analyst with Banc One Investment Advisors, which holds about 250,000 HealthSouth shares and sold almost 100,000 two weeks ago. ``There might be issues with the viability of HealthSouth continuing as a going concern

klingt alles nicht neu, nur auch hier ist ne neue front aufgemacht.

[dosto]

2:36PM Cash rises to record 51% of market cap: Trim Tabs ($SPX) by Tomi Kilgore
Cash on the sidelines -- cash in bank savings accounts and bond and retail money funds -- now totals $5.3 trillion, according to Trim Tabs, which is a record high 51 percent of the $10.4 trillion market capitalization of the entire U.S. stock market. Trim Tabs said the cash-to-market cap ratio was at 49.5 percent at the end of 1990, the mutual fund tracker said; in 1991, the S&P 500 Index ($SPX) rose 31 percent. At the end of 1999, cash on the sidelines ($3.8 billion) was a record-low 21 percent of the total market cap at the time ($17.7 trillion) said Trim Tabs.

[dosto]

Joe Mysak is a columnist for Bloomberg News. The opinions expressed are his own.

Happy Days in Muni Land as Issuers Rush to Market: Joe Mysak
By Joe Mysak
New York, May 1 (Bloomberg) -- States and municipalities sold a record $113.5 billion in bonds during the first four months of this year, the fastest the $100 billion mark has been broken.

Municipalities have been selling bonds to take advantage of lower interest rates to refinance outstanding debt (bond refundings are up more than 50 percent from last year), to pay for new projects and to fill holes in their budgets.

There was a time when $100 billion in bond sales would have been a good year for underwriters -- such as almost all of the last century.

States and localities didn`t break the $1 billion mark until 1921. They first sold as much as $10 billion in bonds in 1963. The $100 billion mark was broken in 1984, according to The Bond Buyer newspaper.

January and February were record months for bond issuance. The month before last, municipalities sold almost $27.8 billion in bonds, marking the second-busiest March ever, after a record $28.8 billion was sold in the same month of 1998. April`s $29.3 billion was another record, topping the previous high of $25.8 billion last year.

If issuers keep up this pace of borrowing -- and with interest rates as low as they were during the closing days of the Johnson administration in 1968, there`s no reason why they shouldn`t -- then 2003 promises to be the second record year in a row. In 2002, municipalities sold $359 billion in bonds.

This is a big deal if you are in the business of helping municipalities borrow money in the bond market. Municipal bond departments, for so long in the ranks of Wall Street`s downtrodden, are now the darlings. During the first third of the year, underwriters took in between half a billion and $1 billion in fees, not including sales and trading.

Scary Times

Bond sales during the first third of the year roared to a record despite some scares, which effectively shut down whole areas of the market.

Take tobacco bonds. States and localities have sold almost $20 billion in bonds backed by their shares of the 1998 settlement with the industry.

The threatened bankruptcy of Philip Morris USA, the biggest cigarette maker, in March, derailed perhaps another $10 billion in tobacco bonds -- at least for now. Issuers are understandably wary of passing too much of the money to be paid to them on to investors, who may ask for more yield in exchange for the almost limitless troubles facing the tobacco industry.

These near-disasters cut two ways. They discourage new sales. They also cause investors to panic. At the height of the hysteria, some tobacco bonds had fallen to as low as 70 cents on the dollar. The rush for the door is never pretty.

Will states and municipalities ever sell tobacco bonds again? As the man once said, Show me a revenue stream and I`ll show you a bond issue. I wouldn`t be surprised if we saw tobacco bonds again before the first half of the year is out.

Rumors of Bankruptcy

Consider, too, airline-backed municipal bonds, sold by airports for carriers to finance various construction projects. The bonds are repaid by the airlines, whose rating is on the security -- not the airports`.

Airlines haven`t sold much of this kind of debt since the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks cut traffic. Airports have returned to the market, their management realizing that, no matter what shape the future of the airline industry takes, people are not going to stop flying altogether.

Still, there are a lot of nervous investors out there. A bankruptcy by AMR Corp.`s American Airlines, which has more than $3 billion in municipal bonds outstanding, would scare plenty of investors.

Few individual investors own tobacco bonds -- they are still, in the main, an institutional sell. Lots of individual investors own airline and airport bonds.

Supply and Demand

If deterioration in credit quality hasn`t scared away investors, neither have rather skimpy yields. Yields, as represented by the Bond Buyer 20 General Obligation Bond Index, began the year at 4.84 percent.

Despite the flood of new bonds, yields have declined. The index begins the day at 4.66 percent, based on the latest weekly calculations. Demand outweighs supply.

``With the war behind us, focus has shifted,`` says John J. Hanley, national sales manager at George K. Baum & Co. in Denver. ``It`s difficult to ignore some of the fundamental problems with the economy. The consensus is that rates aren`t apt to rise significantly in the near term,`` says Hanley.

``After-tax returns in munis are still attractive versus alternative investments,`` he says.

There`s the real wild card. Will stocks come back and drain away the money that has been going into municipal bonds? The Dow Jones Industrial Average opened in January at 8342.38. In March, it fell to a closing level of 7524.06 and has since come back to 8480.

That`s still no ringing endorsement of stocks. The $1.4 billion some Wall Street firms paid the Securities and Exchange Commission this week to settle conflict-of-interest charges is unlikely to make investors run back to the stock market.

I have a theory. Investors believed. The little guy believed, kept the faith, through the dot-com bubble, accounting scandals, layoffs, bankruptcies, phony earnings, chief executive officer follies, analysts lying to them. They really only lost that faith, so badly abused, last summer.

To paraphrase the English writer G.K. Chesterton, when people stop believing in the stock market, they don`t believe in nothing -- they believe in anything.

Including munis.

Last Updated: May 1, 2003 00:00 EDT

[woernie]

Japan`s call rate falls into minus territory by Allen Wan
Japan`s overnight call rate dipped to minus 0.001 percent Wednesday, the first time it has fallen below zero, Kyodo quoted the Bank of Japan as saying. A below-zero rate means that lenders are paying interest to borrowers. The call rate is the rate charged on overnight loans between commercial banks.

[dosto]

MarketPulse




4:09AM China reportedly mulls new yuan link by Allen Wan
TOKYO (CBS.MW) -- China is reportedly considering scrapping the yuan`s peg to the dollar for another system linking it to major currencies. China`s central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan told the mainland`s Financial News that adopting a link to more than one currency "can be discussed." Bloomberg, which first cited the report, noted that yuan forward contracts rose to a record after the Financial News story. Separately, Reuters reported that China and the U.S. have agreed that the yuan should eventually float freely but Beijing resisted the speeding up of that process. "On the currency issue in particular, I was encouraged to hear a reaffirmation of China`s long-standing goal to move toward greater flexibility," U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow was quoted as saying in Beijing. "I was assured that interim policy steps are now being taken and progress in this area will continue," Snow said.

[dosto]

most recent bulletins more bulletins:



MarketPulse


2:51AM Avis Europe: Signs of recovery in car rental demand (UK:AVE) by Emily Church
LONDON (CBS.MW) -- Avis Europe (UK:AVE), the largest car rental group in Europe, said Monday said sales in the six months to June dropped 5.5 percent to 527 million euros. Profit before tax dropped to 15.3 million euros from 49.5 million euros. The company said it was sticking to its target of a 4-7 percent drop in revenue in the year, excluding the Budget acquisition. "Market demand showed signs of recovery from the second quarter, with the exception of long haul travel, although prices were still weaker than prior year. Summer trading has met expectations, with some improvement in the monthly trend of leisure prices. Whilst the corporate market has stabilized, we are not yet assuming any near-term marked recovery in demand or pricing in this segment," the company said.


2:42AM New Look confirms founder Singh makes offer (UK:NEW) by Emily Church
LONDON (CBS.MW) -- U.K. fashion retailer New Look (UK:NEW) confirmed Monday it received an offer from founder Tom Singh with private equity investment. Its board termed the proposal "preliminary in nature and is subject to a number of pre-conditions." The U.K. Sunday Telegraph said Singh was expected to table a £650 million offer.


1:02AM Dollar weak vs. yen, yuan forwards rise ahead of Snow by Allen Wan
TOKYO (CBS.MW) -- The dollar remained weak vs. the yen and the Chinese yuan rose in forward contracts as U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow arrived in Tokyo Monday in the first leg of his trip to Asia that will also take him to China and Thailand. The dollar eased to 116.60 yen in midday Tokyo, falling below 117 yen for the first time since late May. The U.S. currency traded at 116.90 yen in New York late Friday after falling as low as 116.15 yen. Dealers are nervous about what Snow will say about the dollar/yen given his opposition to Japanese forex intervention but a stronger Japanese currency could hurt the economy. Japan has refrained from intervening in the currency market in the four weeks to August 27. Dealers will also be cautious ahead of Snow`s visit to China Tuesday, when he is expected to press mainland authorities to allow the yuan to appreciate. Bloomberg reported that the yuan`s 12-month forward rate widened to match a record 1,850 set in June, versus 1,675 late Friday. The rate implies the yuan will strengthen to 8.0920 to the dollar in a year if not fixed, it said. The yuan is pegged around 8.3 to the dollar.


SUNDAY, AUGUST 31, 2003

[dosto]

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[dosto]

Bubble is back," TrimTabs warns by Jonathan Burton
SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- A fivefold increase in margin debt at Nasdaq member firms prompted market data provider TrimTabs.com to warn Wednesday that "the bubble is back" in U.S. stocks. Margin debt rose to $26 billion at July 31 from $5.1 billion at Dec. 31 -- adding $19 billion in June and July alone. That figure represents 15 percent of the total outstanding, compared to 7.1 percent in March 2000. TrimTabs` warning follows regulatory agency NASD`s investor alert Monday that trading "on margin" is up 25 percent year-to-date and many investors may underestimate the risks. The NASD alert suggests that Nasdaq members are being required to tighten margin rules after a period of relaxation, TrimTabs said. "When a loosening becomes a tightening, the affected stocks collapse. That is in part what happened in early 2000 when the Nasdaq tightened margin requirements on some of the more aggressive stocks