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[ThaiGuru]

John Synnott | February 16 2004

Gold price climbs as bulls chase bullion

Some small exploration companies` share prices have tripled in the rush, reports John Synnott.
The GOLD price is climbing again. It`s nearly halfway to that gleaming $US850 summit it reached in 1980.
Bullion sales are up from 150 to 650 tonnes in 12 months and investors who held gold last year saw prices rise 20 per cent.

The part-commodity, part-currency, part-fashion item rose $US75 an ounce, and 28 traders surveyed by the London Bullion Market Association have come up with an average prediction of a $US73 rise this year, in a trading range between $US374 and $US470.

http://moneymanager.smh.com.au/articles/2004/02/16/107677986…

[ThaiGuru]

Gold:



Silber:



Dollar:

[ThaiGuru]

Ein Meisterstück in dem sich John Hathaway wieder einmal mehr übertrifft!

Ein absoluter "must read", wenn man verstehen will was gerade so mit uns allen geschieht

Gruss

ThaiGuru



http://www.tocquevillefunds.com/press/archives.php?id=60



The "Real" Value of a Dollar

In a January 4 speech this year, Fed. Governor Bernanke opined that the rising gold price was caused by terrorism. Geopolitical tensions, he said, “account for the bulk of the recent increase in the real price of gold.” He also downplayed the weakness of the dollar. Weakness against the euro was less important than the fact that the dollar’s “real value against the currencies of important U.S. trading partners, weighted by trade shares, has fallen only about 12 percent from its peak in the first quarter of 2002.” Bernanke’s remarks in total formulate the rationale for the Fed’s easy money policy. As such, they illuminate reality as perceived by the Fed versus reality as perceived by the rest of humanity.

Bernanke’s references to the “real” price of gold and the “r…

There are three ways to assess the Fed’s worldview. First, they are indeed right. Critics should just simmer down. Second, what the governors say for public consumption (and the Fed has become increasingly vocal in recent years) is primarily designed to affect the behavior of consumers, corporations and other governments in order to achieve desired results such as economic growth, financial market tranquility, and retention of dollar holdings by foreign central banks. In other words, they don’t believe what they are saying but are using the Fed pulpit to achieve policy objectives. Third, and most disturbing: they actually believe what they are saying.

What is the “real” value of a dollar? It is a question of metaphysical dimensions. The dollar is the unit of account by which all participants in the economic process make decisions. Whether or not to buy, hire, produce, or invest depends on millions of daily calculations measured in dollars. Decades ago, thirty-three years to be exact, dollar centric decisions were pretty much confined to the borders of the United States. The 1971 decision to decouple the dollar and gold marked the beginning of an explosion of international reserves. It gave birth to the dollar-based system of global credit and an era of unprecedented world prosperity. Today, the preponderance of global economic decision-making is rooted in some notion as to the intrinsic value of a dollar expended, received, or held as an investment.

For the dollar to continue as the global numeraire, it is essential that its value remain stable. What participants in the economic process believe the value of the dollar to be has the power to affect global economic activity. There can be no room for doubt as to the dollar’s value either in the present or in the future. The enticing question is what information should the market utilize to assess the dollar? Should it use the price of gold? Not according to Gov. Bernanke. Should it use exchange rates? Again, the answer is no. Let us then turn to the mini-maestro for the correct answer. He concludes his January 4th speech:

“The achievement of price stability must not and will not be…

In other words, “trust us” to get it right. But is Bernanke’s confidence that the Fed will act appropriately to maintain the dollar’s value enough to dispel all doubts? Perhaps central bankers in Asia have not yet had a chance to digest Bernanke’s words. This might explain the January 28 comments of Japanese Finance Minister Sadakazu. He said he wanted to carefully consider whether to change the weighting of gold in Japan’s foreign reserves, which are “mostly made up of dollar-denominated assets”. Japan’s reserves reached a record high of $673 billion at the end of December, 2003. Zhu Min, general manager and advisor to the president of the Bank of China, the largest holder of dollar reserves in China, recently stated: “all the Asian countries hold dollars for security reasons, but at some point, this has to end.” Speaking at the Davos World Economic Forum in January, he added, “Over time, China’s pace of export growth would wane, weakening its ability to buy dollar-denominated assets.”

Central bankers, upon concluding that they hold more of a particular reserve asset than they desire, have been known to act without any consideration of intrinsic value. One need only recall the relentless divestment of gold holdings by European central banks at prices well below the current market. That episode alone suggests that central bankers are either incapable of judging or indifferent to matters of valuation.

By now, any literate investor knows there are too many dollars held by Asian central banks, but nobody can figure out what happens next. It is obvious, for example, that if they were to sell, or even stop buying, the ever-increasing supply of treasury debt, interest rates in the United States would rise substantially. The less obvious but inescapable side effects would be lower stock prices, higher inflation, and a softer economy. It could also cause dislocations in China, which needs the US market to provide job growth. In a recent article in Foreign Affairs ( Nov/Dec ‘03) David and Lyric Hughes Hale wrote “the unemployment rate in (Chinese) urban areas is estimated at more than 8 percent; there may be an additional 200 million jobless workers in the countryside. According to Zhai Zhenwu, the director of the Population Research Institute at China’s Renmin University, China will need to create 20 million new jobs a year to absorb the 8 million people who have lost their jobs in state-owned enterprises.”

It seems unlikely that Chinese bureaucrats would initiate any precipitous move away from the dollar, either in the composition of their reserves or in the manipulated peg of 8.3 renminbi/$. It is more plausible that external events will impose change. Still, financial officials in Asia are telegraphing creeping abandonment of the dollar. Stephanie Pomboy of Macromavens notes that the percentage of Chinese FX reserves recycled into Treasuries declined to 24% in the second half of 2003 from 54% for all of 2002. These signals, alone, may prove sufficient to accelerate the dollar’s slide from its perch as the global numeraire. Perhaps a resurgence of US protectionism based on the issue of job losses will add momentum. Spreading credit worries tied to deflation of the Chinese bubble, an unexpected global downturn, or a sharp rise in interest rates are also capable of greasing the skids.

One could speculate endlessly on the scenarios. It is impossible for anyone to write tomorrow’s headlines. What is absolutely and irrefutably certain, however, is that oversupply, a term without which it would be impossible to describe the dollar, will be corrected by market forces in due course. The Fed, notwithstanding its privileged knowledge of the true value of the dollar, is powerless to dictate that the dollar will trade for one penny more than its market- clearing price.

The presence or absence of value cannot be determined apart from a context of scarcity or abundance. Value is also inextricably tied to usefulness. Water may be cheap in most parts of North America, but in the Sahara, it can be priceless. The hard-pressed debtor may thirst for a few dollars, but not the rock star. While the principal is easy to apply locally, it is more challenging on a global scale. The earth is 80% water and so, for most, it is relatively cheap. Essential to life itself, water can be very expensive.

The value of money is fundamentally different from all other daily necessities. Money is useful both for its current transaction value and for its future purchasing power. While its transaction value can be known at any given moment, future purchasing power is a matter of speculation. Money should not be confused with currency. Real money is scarce. A five million Turkish lira note sits on my desk. There are plenty more where it came from. Its utility ends with its curiosity value (and its transaction value for those in Turkey.) Otherwise, a low opinion of the Turkish Lira is shared universally. No central bank accumulates the Turkish Lira as a reserve asset. Its future purchasing power is expected to decline because the issuing authority lacks any credible commitment to maintaining its current value. To hold more of a currency than one requires for daily transactions, one must believe that its future purchasing power will approximate that of today.

The Federal Reserve would have us believe that the inherent value of the dollar is best represented by the Consumer Price Index. The American Institute for Economic Research informs us (January 12, 2004 Research Report) that this measure of the general price level was first introduced in World War I at the request of President Wilson to help mediate disputes between labor and management in defense related industries. Its usage spread over the next several decades, almost always in relation to wage issues. By the 1960’s and 1970’s, it became the basis for cost of living adjustments for benefit packages including social security. The index, compiled and published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), is the most widely used and trusted barometer of the dollar’s value. It is the basis for calculating the excess return on Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) and real interest rates (t-bills minus trailing twelve month CPI). It is the method by which investors calculate their inflation-adjusted returns from government bonds and private sector debt securities. Since short-duration government bonds approximate risk free return, the CPI indirectly but most powerfully influences the valuation of the entire equity market.

What started out as a fairly simple and pragmatic attempt to hammer out equitable wage settlements some 90 years ago has become a highly complicated, politically charged, and controversial cornerstone for the capital markets. The BLS, in a never-ending and earnest effort to keep up with the times, has changed the items, the composition, and the pricing methodology of the CPI components. It has distinguished between core inflation and reported inflation to iron out unsustainable fluctuations in commodities. It has introduced seasonal adjustments to smooth out comparisons on a month-to-month basis. The index currently contains 400 items thought to approximate a market basket of goods and services that best represent the general price level. In recent years, the index has been tame, advancing at a rate of 1.9% for the last twelve months, and down from 2.4% for 2002. The signal transmitted to the capital markets is that there is little or no inflation and therefore the value of the dollar is rock solid. In fact, the Federal Reserve has been more preoccupied with potential deflation, or a general decline in the price level. The expectation of low CPI readings for the foreseeable future is a key justification for the Federal Reserve’s aggressively accomodative stance on interest rates, the lowest bond yields since the 1950’s, and the highest equity market valuations since the dot-com crash of 2000.

Arnirvan Banerji, Director of Research at the Economic Cycle Research Institute, scrutinizes CPI data for hints about potential changes in direction. The Future Inflation Gauge or “FIG” has fairly reliably anticipated changes in direction with lead times of several months. The “FIG” according to Mr. Banerji, is currently forecasting a further decline in the CPI, more good news for the capital markets, or so it would seem. He hastens to add that the FIG is helpful only in pinpointing changes in direction of the CPI. It does not capture the amplitude of an imminent rise or decline in the CPI. It also cannot detect secular shifts in magnitude that span more than a single business cycle.

This leading analyst of the CPI questions whether the information conveyed by the series is as meaningful as the financial markets take it to be. In a very effective sound bite heard by this listener on Bloomberg radio, Banerji said that a person with one foot in boiling water and the other in a bucket of ice is on average perfectly comfortable. So it would seem that the tranquility of the CPI does not capture underlying turbulence. The thematic cross current would be one of rapidly escalating price levels for goods and services that are in scarce supply or have some measure of pricing power such as health care or raw commodities. On the other hand, price deflation is evident in many consumer goods. 16% of Wal Mart’s (purveyor of many of the 400 items measured in the CPI) 2003 sales were sourced in China. At the current exchange rate for the renminbi, this percentage will undoubtedly grow and keep a ceiling on consumer good prices. Thanks to Asian outsourcing, the BLS was able to report declines of 83% in computers, 56% in televisions, 18% in women’s dresses, 7.8% in sports equipment, and 1.7%-5.1% in other apparel categories for the period 1990-2003. For the same period, the all-item average rose 46%. Over the same period, college and tuition fees rose 171%, cable television plus 114.7%, bank services up 104.5%, motor vehicle insurance up 85.2%, and movie, theater, and sporting event tickets plus 81.8%.

But there is more to this than simple crosscurrents, according to Banerji. Several years ago, the very important housing component of the CPI was increasing at an annual rate of 4%. Today, that number is 2.2% and heading lower. Housing is weighted at 40.85% of the total CPI. How is it falling when house prices are rising? Simple. The BLI calculates this important component on the basis of “imputed rent” rather than the capital cost of buying a new home. Imputed rent synthesizes the cost of home ownership into a rental factor putting all citizens, both renters and homeowners, on the same footing. The BLS gathers the information for imputed rent, or the “Owners’ Equivalent Rent Index” by asking “each homeowner (surveyed) for their estimate of the house’s implicit rent and what the occupants would get for their rent …. if the owner did rent their home.” (US Department of Labor Program Highlight-Fact Sheet No. BLS 96-5.) It should be noted that in light of the Federal Reserve’s highly expansionary monetary policy, single-family owner-occupied housing has enjoyed an unprecedented new construction boom. Mr. Banerji observes that a felicitous (for the CPI) consequence of the single family housing boom has been a rise in vacancies and a decline in rental rates for apartment properties. Pressure on the rental market appears to go a long way towards explaining the mystifying decline in the housing component of the CPI. Could it be that the sagging apartment rental market also explains rising bond and equity markets?

There is still more to the tale. Gertrude Stein’s famous dictum: “Rose is a rose is a rose” speaks to the mutation of a word’s meaning over decades or centuries of usage. We can surmise that Big Brother is alive and well at the BLS where a computer is not a computer is not a computer. In other words, added features, memory capacity, and random bells and whistles are not captured in the straightforward list price of a computer. To expunge all continuity of meaning, the BLS brought forth “hedonics”, the science of measuring the value of a product or a service after allowing for qualitative improvements. A laptop with twice the memory as last year’s model sold at the same price this year is counted as a 50% price reduction. This sort of analysis was applied initially to computers and IT equipment. More recently, a broad range of consumer goods including electronics and automobiles has been subjected to hedonic measurement. Health care has been a particularly ill behaved sector of the CPI. Hospital services, nursing homes and adult day care, for example, increased 141.4% over the period 1990 to 2003, versus an average of 46% for all items measured. It should come as no surprise, then, that the Bureau of Economic Analysis is considering adjusting prices of medical services for quality changes (Grant’s Interest Rate Observer-1/30/04.)

Proponents of hedonic price measurement admit that the process is not without flaws. In a July 12, 2001 paper, Jack Triplett of the Brookings Institution found that “the hedonically based computer equipment deflators in the national accounts of OECD countries recorded …ranged form +80% to –72% for the decade of the 1980’s.” Happily, after the misadventures of the 1980’s, the European practitioners of hedonics achieved a “smaller dispersion” by the early 1990’s when the computer deflators ranged from “-10% to - 47%.”

The notion underlying hedonic adjustment is that normal price measurement techniques fail to capture qualitative improvements. However, we are entitled to ask whether there are any objective standards by which these price adjustments are applied. Why should an increase in memory capacity or a ramp up in processing speed equate to a price reduction? By what factor are auto prices reduced because of airbags, catalytic converters, seat warmers, or tinted glass? Should health care costs be adjusted downward because patients are discharged in two days rather than three? Hedonic adjustments, as with pro-forma earnings, require a great deal of subjectivity to rearrange reported information into a new kind of reality. Slashing reported list prices for a computer because of advanced specifications over last year’s model implies there is quantifiable improvement in productivity or output. As noted in Grant’s (Feb. 16, 2001) a computer “like a piano depends on the individual at the keyboard: He may play the ‘The Moonlight Sonata’ or ‘Happy Birthday.’ The implication of hedonic adjustment is that the computer-using U.S. workforce studied at Julliard.”

We must address one final layer to understand the mystery of price stability in the midst of a falling dollar, rising deficits, and ongoing trade imbalances. The problem goes further than the constant re-jiggering of the index or the application of abstruse price measurement techniques. The problem is that the prices that are being measured are themselves fake. Preposterous? Blame it on manipulated exchange rates. Does the dollar trade at 8.3 renminbi or 105 yen because of intrinsic value? Asian governments that peg or manipulate their currencies to these levels have no interest in value. An undervalued renminbi is needed to create jobs and investment. It is for the United States, “an unholy partnership with its Asian creditors. They would produce; we would consume…..the United States and its lenders have entered into the biggest vendor-financing scheme in the history of borrowing and lending.” As a result, “the prices are fake. The exchange rates are manipulated, the interest rates are adulterated and the product prices are contrived.” (Grant’s 1/16/04) What prices would the CPI measure if the US dollar bought only half as many renminbi, rupee, or yen? The valuation of the dollar as supported by the CPI is a testament to institutional inertia, delusions of elitist intellectuals, and public gullibility. The myth of price stability conveyed by the CPI would shatter upon contact with freely floating exchange rates.

The CPI was conceived to measure price levels within the borders of the United States. It was thought to convey helpful information to consumers, managements, and investors as to the presence or lack of price stability. It did so in a context of stable exchange rates and international trade flows that are miniscule by today’s standards. Thanks to the evolution of financial markets and trade reform, the dollar is a borderless currency. For the substantial holders of dollars outside of the US, the notion that a benchmark so flawed as the CPI should be the preeminent measure of value is laughable. Extra territorial dollars are held not for consumption but for investment. The more astute holders of these dollars must look beyond the CPI to the future supply and demand for the currency. In assessing those fundamentals, they must take into account the integrity of the issuing authority. They must also evaluate the suspect reliability of the principal and the only readily available measure of the currency’s value, the consumer price index. As for future supply and demand, Richard Duncan remarks in the Financial Times: “The amount of new yen that Japan ‘printed’ and converted into dollars during January 2004 alone was enough to finance 13 per cent of the US budget deficit.” Earlier in the column, he states: “It is inconceivable that economic policy makers in Tokyo and Washington do not understand the impact that this unprecedented act of money creation is having on global interest rates and economic output.”

In its infancy, the CPI was a tool for settling disputes, not a measure of the dollar’s value. In those days, twenty dollars bought an ounce of gold and that was the measure of the currency’s value. It was simple to understand for one and all. Armies of bureaucrats, statisticians, and academicians were not required to collect, massage, interpret or invent obscure information in order to divine the dollar’s value. No financial high priests comparable to today’s Fed were needed to reveal the truth. Credibility of the currency rested simply on its link to gold. The dollar’s viability as the cornerstone for international credit is in jeopardy. The over valuation of the dollar cannot help but breed further capital misallocation, production overcapacity, inflation of asset values and debt buildup, all precursors to another bubble.

How will world financial authorities orchestrate a graceful …

The day when each becomes confetti is within sight.

What is the value of a dollar? For us, the simplest and most…

John Hathaway

February 14, 2004

© Tocqueville Asset Management L.P.

[schaefsche]

vielen dank fuer deine antwort, thaiguru,
ich wuerde wahrscheinl erstmal so weiter machen wie jetzt: also von thailand aus beim deutschen broker dax-zertifikate handeln. meine angst ist aber die zuverlässigkeit und preis der ggf 14stuendigen internetverbindung in thailand. habe im urlaub dort bei starkem regen schon des oefteren einen stromausfall erlebt. wie gehst du dort online und was kostet es?
vorab khop khun khrap für die antwort....
gruss
frank

[superman6]

Vor einigen Tagen habe ich Investika und Cambrian
in einem Board-Beitrag beschrieben.
Es dürfte bald losgehen.

Glaubt ihr es immer noch nicht.??

Über 13 % im Plus nur heute wieder.


ISIN GB0031630527
Bezeichnung CAMBRIAN MIN ORD 20P
Börse London Domestic Trades
Datum/Zeit 16.02.04/13:20:00
Letzter Kurs 66,00 O
Volumen/Trade 50.000
Volumen/Tag 465.648

[goldmaki]

@8444

Die Jahreszahl ist nicht unerheblich. 1888 war m.M. nach das Jahr, in welchem 3 deutsche Kaiser regierten..

Den besten Marktvergleich erhält man über Ebay.
Münzen - Deutsches Reich 1871-1945 - gold

und dann die Angebote zu 20 RM vergleichen.
Günstig kann man zzgl. Postversand unter 80€ abgreifen;
die 20 RM Hamburger, Sachsen und sonstige "Exoten" gehen auch zwischen 120-135 € an Bieter.

gruß goldmaki

ps: Auf diesem Weg kann ich Dir endlich einmal vielen Dank für die umfangreichen Recherchen sagen

[arobat]

#8444

auflage 5363500 1888 A

Gibt es nur mit prägezeichen A

ich würde sagen mit 100 Euro müsste das stück bezahlt sein

gruss

[ThaiGuru]

February 15, 2004 08:00 PM US Eastern Timezone

Wheaton Reports 325% Increase in Production and 66% Reduction in Cash Costs for 2003

VANCOUVER, British Columbia--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Feb. 15, 2004--Wheaton River Minerals Ltd. ("Wheaton") (AMEX: WHT) (TSX: WRM) is pleased to report a 325% increase in production to 450,000 gold equivalent ounces in 2003 compared to 106,000 gold equivalent ounces in 2002. In 2003, cash costs decreased by 66% to US$62 per gold equivalent ounce, compared to US$182 per ounce in 2002. Reserves increased by over 600% to 5.3 million gold equivalent ounces and resources more than doubled.


http://home.businesswire.com/portal/site/google/index.jsp?nd…

[ThaiGuru]

Robex Kolomba Gold Property shows large open-pit potential


http://biz.yahoo.com/cnw/040213/e_ressrobex_open_pit_1.html

[ThaiGuru]

Press Release Source: European Goldfields

European Goldfields Ltd. Closes CAD $23,646,875 Private Placement

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/040213/135367_1.html

[ThaiGuru]

Going for the gold
Wary investors are embracing tried-and-true savings sources

Gold was cheap 33 years ago, selling for a mere $40 an ounce. Kelly Finger remembers that year well.

He had just come home from Vietnam and was finishing his military tour in El Paso, Texas. At a coin show, Finger recalls pawing through plastic containers brimming with gold coins, unprotected and virtually unwanted.

"Nobody cared about gold back then," said Finger, owner of Kelly`s Coin & Stamp in Lansing. "It`s amazing what happened to it after that."

Since then, the price of gold skyrocketed to nearly $700 an ounce in 1980 and has stayed above $200 ever since. For some investors, gold is one of the most liquid and stable investments in the world.

Tangible investments like gold, real estate and rare coins have become more appealing since the stock market`s slide.

weiter...



http://www.lsj.com/news/business/040215_stockalternatives_1e…

[ThaiGuru]

Southern Star Announces $1,500,000 Private Placement


http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/040213/135390_1.html

[ThaiGuru]

Minco Completes NI #43-101 Filing/Project Updates


http://biz.yahoo.com/ccn/040213/370c6a16d66bca81c834df83d066…

[ThaiGuru]

Conquest Resources Limited: Expedited Filing Accepted For Rock & Roll Claims


http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/040213/135467_1.html

[ThaiGuru]

Mining venture hopes to find gold in the Falklands

By Saeed Shah


http://news.independent.co.uk/business/news/story.jsp?story=…

[ThaiGuru]

WEAK BUCK KEEPS GOLD A-GLITTERING NEAR $400


http://www.nypost.com/business/17909.htm

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/appel021604.html

The Gold Standard Demanded Discipline
In An Undisciplined World
It Is Gone But It Will Return!

Dr. Richard S. Appel

On March 14, 1900, the Congress of the United States passed the Gold Standard Act. This placed our nation on an official gold standard and mandated that the issuance of “greenbacks”, or Treasury notes, could only occur if they were backed by gold. Further, Congress created a gold reserve of $150 million that was to be expressly used for the redemption of gold-backed greenbacks. Henceforth, under the gold standard, our politicians were to be limited in the ability to issue new banknotes by the amount of physical gold that was set aside to redeem them.

When dollar creation was governed by this law, the dollar’s strength or weakness was determined by the health of our economy, interest rates and our monetary gold stock. The stronger that our country appeared to the rest of the world, the more desirous was our dollar. During this era, the gold standard acted as a self-regulating mechanism by dictating the size of our money supply. The larger our gold stock, the greater the amount of notes that our country could issue. Conversely, if our nation’s gold supply dwindled, it was forced to reduce our money in circulation. Further, the gold standard functioned to moderate and control the expansion and contraction of the business cycle.

In 1934, President Roosevelt revalued gold from its earlier official price of $20.67 to $35 an ounce. When that occurred the gold standard redefined the dollar as being worth 1/35th of an ounce of gold. Because the government could only create as many dollars as their gold stock would provide, this “official” rise in the gold price simultaneously allowed our leaders to “legally” increase our money supply. Our then current store of gold would support a far greater dollar amount of paper money. In effect, they devalued the dollar by reducing the quantity of gold that was necessary to redeem it. This allowed our politicians to increase our money supply with the hope that it would help our country extricate itself from the throes of the Great Depression

The gold standard formed the foundation of a sound domestic monetary system. It prevented government officials from arbitrarily increasing the dollars in circulation as it limited their ability to create money from “thin air”. This fostered greater confidence for our trading partners in holding our dollars, as they knew that their value was stable and that they could redeem them for gold.

The gold standard also facilitated smooth business transactions between foreign nations. When the gold standard was adhered to by our trading partners, gold was used to settle balance of payments deficits between countries. When one nation, the debtor, bought more goods and services from another than it sold to it, the creditor, the former incurred a balance of payments deficit. The net effect was the return of the debtor country’s money and a transfer of some of its gold stock to its creditor.

A growing American economy generates greater wealth for both our domestic companies and our citizens. Further, this condition increases the desire of foreigners to purchase and invest in our nation. They are more confident in holding our currency and they see value in doing business with us. During periods when both our dollar was widely desired and our economy was strong, U.S. companies imported greater quantities of foreign goods than they sold. This was the result of our citizens and enterprises using some of their increased income to purchase more products from beyond our borders.

Under these circumstances dollars left our shores and accumulated in foreign lands. As this process continued a point was reached when we created a U.S. Balance of Payments deficit. As stated earlier under the Gold Standard, if a foreign nation desired to redeem their acquired dollars they could receive gold in exchange. When this occurred, the transfer of gold from the U.S. caused a decrease in our gold stock, and forced a simultaneous reduction in our money supply. Thus, the dollar’s increased value would make our goods progressively more expensive in other currencies. This acted to curtail foreign purchases in the U.S. The resultant decline in foreign demand, and our reduced money supply, would act as a brake to slow the economic expansion. It would also act to reign in any inflationary pressures that were fostered by our strong economy.

In contrast, during periods of weak U.S. business conditions the dollar fell in value, and U.S. consumption of foreign goods declined. The weakened dollar raised the price of alien goods to Americans. Eventually, the cheaper dollar and the greater bargains that our products represented encouraged foreigners to consume a relatively greater amount of U.S. goods and services. This caused a U.S. Balance of Payments surplus as our trading partners acquired more of our products than they sold us. When this occurred their accumulated currencies were exchanged for gold by our country. The result was a net increase in our governments’s gold stock. This in turn would generate a rise in our money supply which would stimulate business, help end the recession, and the process would repeat itself.

THE REMOVAL OF THE LAST RESTRAINTS
UPON MONETARY CREATION

In 1944, the Bretton Woods Agreement was signed by the U.S. …

The gold exchange standard opened the door for excessive world monetary creation and the inflation that it inevitably produced. No longer would the money supplies of the major countries be controlled by the amount of gold in their depositories. Now, they could increase their local money stocks by issuing additional amounts of their native currencies based upon both their U.S. dollar holdings and their gold reserves.

Finally, in August, 1971, President Richard M. Nixon closed …

Subsequent to President Nixon’s refusal to exchange gold for foreign U.S. dollar claims, the dollar became the primary item that was used to back the currencies of the world. Under the gold exchange standard our trading partners gained great confidence in the dollar. This was the result of the long period in which they could confidently exchange it for gold. It is the prime reason that the U.S. was able to convince the world to move from the gold standard to a system which allowed a dollar substitute. This placed the U.S. in an enviable position, and allowed it to wield great power. It provided our country with the ability to settle our balance of payments deficits with dollars that the Federal Reserve could create at will. They no longer had to back the dollar with gold. Had our leaders acted responsibly to limit the creation of dollars, we would not be in the precarious condition that the U.S. and the balance of the world now finds itself.

During the ensuing four decades after the dollar replaced gold, the U.S. has registered an enormous cumulative balance of payments deficit. These dollars left our country to acquire valuable goods and service which were gladly sold to us. Many of these dollar credits then returned to the U.S. and were invested in U.S. Treasuries which helped reduce our interest rates. A substantial number of the dollars that went overseas found their way into the coffers of the various central banks. This kept them out of our money supply and reduced pressure on our prices, thereby limiting domestic inflation. Simultaneously, the dollar build up in foreign lands fostered large increases in the money supplies of those nations.

All of these factors worked well for quite some time. In the U.S., it allowed our citizens to lead a far better lifestyle and enjoy a higher standard of living than would have otherwise been the case. We did not have to sacrifice our precious gold hoard, as we would have under the gold standard, in order to settle our balance of payments deficits. We not only weren’t forced to reduce our money supply, but were able to expand it. Foreigners continued to treat the dollar as if it remained as good as gold. We simply transferred electronic dollar credits to pay for our foreign purchases. Additionally, the abrogation of the gold standard forestalled a serious economic decline that would have been mandatory under its rule. Each time our economy has contracted the Fed effortlessly expanded the money supply and reduced interest rates. Even today this method appears to be working. However, the time will come when the piper will have to be paid, and time may be running out.

The other nations are beginning to recognize the trap into which they have fallen. They see the dollar declining and gold rising in value and have heard from the lips of Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan and Fed Governor Ben Bernanke that the U.S. has the ability to create dollars at will. Large foreign dollar holdings have been converted into euros and some into gold. Further, there is talk of not only repricing oil in euros but in the creation of new gold backed currencies. Either of these events will play havoc on the dollar as its usefulness to the rest of the world will decline, and with it both the dollar’s desirability and worth. For these reasons, I believe that the dollar is destined to gradually lose its global importance.

Additionally, Japan is aggressively purchasing dollars with newly created yen credits. They are attempting to support the dollar in an effort to maintain their competitive trade advantage. This is acting to limit an increase in the U.S. money supply because the dollars purchased are removed from our domestic measures of money. Instead, the dollars are used by Japan to acquire U.S. Treasuries. This is likely the primary reason for our surprisingly strong bond market.

At some juncture I believe that it is inevitable that the U.…

Dr. Richard S. Appel
http://www.financialinsights.org
February 13, 2004


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[ThaiGuru]

Reuters
Gold edges up in Asia, seen in $409-$416 range


http://biz.yahoo.com/rm/040215/markets_precious_1.html

[ThaiGuru]

International precious metal analysts visit Ghana


http://www.ghanaweb.com/GhanaHomePage/NewsArchive/artikel.ph…

[ulfur]

Der w:o Chartist Dacke heute:
Gold und Goldminen Update

Gold hat die Widerstände bei 410 überwunden und kann auf diesem Niveau nun mit Unterstützung rechnen. Das Erholungspotenzial reicht kurzfristig bis ca. 420/424 Dollar. Wie weit sich dieser Trend fortsetzen kann, bleibt erst einmal abzuwarten. Die Unterstützung im Bereich 408 sollte jetzt nicht mehr unterschritten werden.
Monday, 16. February 2004 | 11:06 Uhr


Vor wenigen Tagen sah er das noch ein wenig anders:
Goldpreis an starken Widerständen gescheitert

Die Notierungen befinden sich heute wieder auf dem Rückzug und sind zunächst an den starken Widerständen im Bereich 408/410 gescheitert. Um mehr Erholungspotenzial freizusetzen, müsste der Goldpreis zudem die Marke 411 nachhaltig überwinden. Doch danach sieht es momentan nicht aus. Mit einem weiteren Test der 399er-Unterstützung muss gerechnet werden. Wird dort ein Verkaufsignal ausgelöst, geht es weiter abwärts Richtung 392/388.
Mittwoch, 11. Februar 2004 | 17:03 Uhr



Jaja - die Charttechnik.

[ThaiGuru]

Junior mine firms rake in $3-billion


By ALLAN ROBINSON
From Monday`s Globe and Mail

A surging appetite for speculative exploration plays allowed junior mining companies to raise a whopping $3-billion last year, leaving them more flush with cash than any time since the Bre-X scandal decimated the sector.



http://www.globeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20040215.wmi…

[ThaiGuru]

@ulfur

Die Analysten wechseln halt schnell mal ihre Richtung.
Heute positiv für Gold, morgen wieder negativ.

Da Gold mittel und langfristig aber nur eine Richtung kennt, nähmlich die nach oben, sollte uns Gold Bugs das nicht aus der Ruhe bringen lassen.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

@Goldmaki
@arobat



Danke Euch ebenfalls für Eure Infos.

Dieses Goldstück wurde mir hier vor Ort zum Kauf angeboten.

Hatte jedoch selbst keine genaue Preisvorstellung.
Das hat sich nun dank Euren Angaben geändert, und ich werd`s wohl für 4000 Thai Bath (ca. 82.- Euro) kaufen.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[arobat]

Hi Thai


von diesem stück gibt es auch fälschungen

wobei du bei 82 Euro nix verkehrt machen kannst

dennn die falschen haben auch ca 7.2 gramm gold fein


gruss

[Magor]

# 8474
Hallo Thai,
"Da Gold mittel und langfristig aber nur eine Richtung kennt, nähmlich die nach oben, sollte uns Gold Bugs das nicht aus der Ruhe bringen lassen"

Ich hatte mir heute den von Dir unter # 8455 reingestellten Jason Hommel Artikel durchgearbeitet (schon alleine wegen meines Goldstücks CFTN : - ))

Nun, wenn der auch nur annähernd Recht behält mit seiner Prognose in seiner Ausarbeitung, dann ist Deine Version eine glatte Untertreibung : - ))

Zitat:
My 2004-2009 price predictions for gold and silver:
2004: $595/oz. gold, 50:1 ratio = $12/oz. silver
2005: $1011/oz. gold, 30:1 ratio = $34/oz. silver
2006: $1719/oz. gold, 10:1 ratio = $172/oz. silver
2007: $2923/oz. gold, 5:1 ratio = $ 585/oz. silver
2008: $4,969/oz. gold, 1:1 ratio = $4969/oz. silver
2009: $8448/oz. gold, 5:1 ratio = $1698/oz. silver
2010+: infinity dollars/oz. gold, infinity dollars/oz. silver.

I calculate the gold price rise by guessing that by 2009, M3 will have a "gold-value" like it did in 1980, which is to say, M3 was worth 2 Billion oz. of gold or less. It also assumes M3 will about triple in that time. These figures are conservative, because I see no reason that M3 should be valued more than the gold the U.S. actually holds, which is a mere 261 million oz., not billion. Today, the M3 value is $8870 billion / $425/oz. = 19 billion oz. of gold M3 could buy in theory. The silver:gold ratio is also a very, very vague guess, reflective of monetary demand chasing silver, which is more scarce than gold in above ground, refined form. I have no idea when the ratio of 15:1 will be exceeded, I`m just totally guessing. I suppose it could happen this year or next month for all I know. Of course my real price targets are infinity dollars per oz. for both gold and silver when all is said and done, I just don`t know how long that will take, nor what year it will be. But my point in producing the price predictions is to show my bullishness for silver and gold.

Let me say how important it is for silver stock investors to own physical silver. There is $ 334 million dollars worth of silver in the registered category available for delivery at the COMEX. The 59 silver stocks on my list, for which I have information available to calculate market caps, add up to $7090 million as of Dec. 5th, 2003. If silver stock investors move 5% of their silver stock holding to physical silver in the next few weeks, that would be $350 million dollars worth of physical silver, and thus, the silver price would probably hit $10-20/oz. within a few days. And if silver stock investors try to move 20% into physical silver, the silver demand will end the COMEX manipulation tomorrow. We don`t need anyone other than ourselves to make "the big breakout" happen at this point.

Zitat Ende

Insgesamt ein Toller Artikel, worin er auch von der mitlerweile fruchtenden Wirkung seines Aufrufes an die Minengesellschaften berichtet, in ihr eigenes Produkt, nämlich in Silber selbst zu investieren, und nur das für die Kostendeckung notwendige auf den Markt zu geben.

Lohnenswert den Link nochmal hier reinzustellen:
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldIsMoney/1076880813.php,

Nun werde ich mich durch den auch interessant erscheinenden Artikel aus Deinem # 8474 durcharbeiten.

Gruß
Magor

[ThaiGuru]

@schaefsche

Ja, ja das Problem der Stromausfälle hier in Thailand, könnte dir ein Lied davon singen.

Ohne Backup Gerät geht hier nichts. Dabei meine ich jetzt nicht die billigen Dinger für 2000 Bath, die Dir gerade mal für 5 bis 15 Minuten die Stromversorgung aufrecht erhalten.

In´s Internet wähle ich mich über diverse Internet Provider ein, je nachdem zu welchen Zeiten ich ins Netz gehe.

Empfehlenswert, und für thailändische Verhältnisse sehr zuverläsig ist Loxinfo (ca. 750.- THB für 63 Stunden) in den Haupt Frequenz Zeiten, und "T-Net by CAT" unbegrenzter Zugang für einen Monat, für ca. 340.- THB (je nach Verkaufsstelle etwas teurer/billiger)
Auch Pacific Internet 1 Monat Unbegrenzt für 349.- THB (Einschränkung, pro Einwahl ins Netz begrenzt auf 3 Std) furzt einwandfrei. 100 THB entsprechen ca. 2.10 Euro.

Kaufen kannst Du diese Stunden, oder Monats Packs, praktisch in jedem Internet Cafe, oder in allen Book Shops, und Computerläden, oder auch in den Computer, und Software Zenter (Vorsicht! vor der riesigen Auswahl an illegaler Software, und Film Raubkopien für 150 THB pro CD!), Pantip Plaza, oder Fortune Town in Bangkok.

Da Thailand immer noch keine Telefon Takt Gebühren kennt, kannst Du Dich für den Preis von 3 THB theoretisch einen vollen Monat lang für 3.- Bath ins Internet einwählen, falls es keine Unterbrechung der Verbindung gibt. Ich selbst bin jedoch schon froh wenn ich mal 6 Stunden nicht unterbrochen werde.

Gruss

Thaiguru

[arobat]

es gibt kaum eine reichsgold münze die nicht nachgemacht ,gefälscht wurde!!!
der unterschied zwischen falschen und echten ist für den laien garnich zu erkennen und auch numismatiker tun sich schwer!
die dinger liefen in den sechzigern und siebzigen massenweise über banken!!

soviel ich weis ging es nich darum in den sammlermarkt einzugreifen sodern um mehrwertsteuer schieberein zwischen deutschland und östereich

[arobat]

von woanders geborgt!

übernehme kein garantie für die richtigkeit des inhaltes






Die Reichsgoldmünzen entsprachen ihrem Goldwert. Als Prägekosten wurden nur 10 Mark je kg eingerechnet. Gelungene Zeitgenössische Fälschungen gibt es daher nicht. In dem fast halben Jahrhundert der Umlaufzeit verzeichnete die Reichkriminalpolizei nur 127 Vorkommnisse, wobei die meisten nur Versuche waren.

Ende der 50er Jahre wurde die Nachfrage nach Goldschmuck größer und fast alle Schmuckhersteller prägten Reichsgoldmünzen in großem Umfang nach. Die Qualität dieser Münzen war aber anfangs wirklich miserabel und tatsächlich nur zu Schmuckzwecken bestimmt. Keine Gefahr für Sammler also!
Doch später gab man sich mehr Mühe, wobei man sicher schon darauf zählte den ein oder anderen unerfahrenen Sammler über den Tisch zu ziehen. Die fehlende Randschrift und andere Abweichungen im Motiv waren jedoch so groß, daß derjenige, der darauf hereinfällt besser keine Münze sammeln sollte.

Doch dann kam aus den Oldenburgischen der Zahnarzt Dr.Schmidt zuerst nach Köln später nach Bonn. 1956 reifte ihm der Gedanke Reichsgoldmünzen so meisterhaft zu kopieren, daß auch Fachleute diese nicht von den Originalen unterscheiden konnte. Er experimentierte lange Zeit, schmolz verschiedene Legierungen, goß die Zaine walzte sie und stanzte die Ronden aus. Als er im Dezember 1957 von einer Spezialfirma in Karlsruhe eine teure Funken.Erosionsmaschine kaufte, mit der man die Stempel von den Originalen absenken konnte, war er schon damit seinen Vorgängern weit überlegen. Sein Ganovenmeisterstück bestand jedoch darin das er sich einige Zeit später ein Rändelwerk zulegte um die Randschrift anzubringen. Diese jedoch perfekt nachzuahmen überforderte selbst Dr.Schmidt.
Doch zunächst blieb das unerkannt. Billig kauften viele bei Dr.Schmidt ein um die Fälschungen dann an eine nichtsahnende Bank
weiterzuverkaufen. Da man bankseitig nicht in der Lage war die Fälschungen zu erkennen, blieb den Banken nichts anderes übrig als entwerder den Goldhandel eibzustellen oder "Augen zu und durch." Zu ersterem konnte und wollte man sich aber nicht entschließen. Weil der Absatz bai den Banken so reibungslos verlief, häuften sich die Aufträge beim Dr. so sehr, daß ihm die Sache über den Kopf zu wachsen begann. Doch seine Schwester Ilona hatte einen Vertriebsfachmann geheiratet. Nunmehr übernahm die Firma Hausmann den Absatz und das Geschäft nahm einen ungeahnten Aufschwung. Am 23.06.1960 wurde der Dr. und seine Schwester verhaftet. Da sich seine Tätigkeit aber in einer rechtlichen Grauzone bewegte wurde er bereit kurze Zeit später wieder entlassen. Daraufhin wurde im Herbst 1960 die Firma j.Hausmann &Co.KG, Bonn großspurig Reichsgoldmünze genannt, gegründet.
Welche Ausmaße das annahm besagt am Rande, daß die Firma in vielen Monaten mehr als 100.000 Mark nur für Werbung ausgaben.
Erst nachdem sich immer mehr Sammler betrogen fühlten, die Presse auf das Thema aufmerksam wurde un die Banken immer mehr der öffentlichen Kritik ausgesetzt waren, begann sich auch die Bundesschuldenverwaltung für eine Gesetzenänderung stark zu machen.
Endlich am 1.1.1975 mußten alle Nachprägungen gekennzeichnet sein. Damit war der Firma die Geschäftsgrundlage entzogen und sie stellte ihre Tätigkeit ein.

Es bleibt noch anzumerken das bis heute das Nachprägen von nicht mehr kursgültigen Münzen lediglich eine Ordnungswidrikeit darstellt und somit mit lächerlichen Strafen geahndet wird.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[arobat]

Die Fälschungen der Firma Schmidt/Hausmann wurden in den 60er und 70er Jahren hergestellt und vertrieben. Damals war das nachprägen von Münzen die nicht mehr gültig im Zahlungsverkehr waren nicht verboten. Da sie die nachgeprägten Reichsgoldmünzen in der "richtigen Legierung" verkauften (10%Kupfer; 90% Feingold) handelte es sich auch nicht um Betrug(da die meisten Münzenzum Goldpreis + Agio verkauft wurden). Erst am 01.01.1975 wurde das Nachprägen von nicht mehr kursgültigen Münzen per Gesetz verboten und Schmidt/Hausmann setzten sich zur Ruhe. Doch leider stellt dieser Straftatbestand bis heute keine Straftat sondern lediglich eine Ordnungswidrigkeit dar, die mit lächerlichen Sanktionen belegt ist. Das nächste Problem ist, daß von der Industrie und Handelskammer vereidigte Sachverständige einmal erkannte Fälschungen nicht kennzeichnen dürfen und an den Einlieferer zurückgeben müssen. So kommen die Fälschungen immer wieder zurück in den Handel (gefälschte Briefmarken dürfen komischerweise gekennzeichnet werden).

[ThaiGuru]

@Magor

Schön dass wenigstens einer das "englische Zeug`s" ausführlich liest auf das ich hier verlinke.

Hast Du den John Hathaway Bericht auch gelesen?

Falls nicht, sags mir bitte, damit ich den Link nochmals setzen kann.

Gruss

Thaiguru

[ThaiGuru]

@arobat

Hoffentlich sind wenigstens die Gold, und Silber Barren die wir bei den Banken kaufen echt?

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

War schon lange nicht mehr im Thread.

Der 600 Jahres Silber Chart!

[ThaiGuru]

http://www2.ccnmatthews.com/scripts/ccn-release.pl?/current/…

TOURNIGAN GOLD CORPORATION

TSX VENTURE SYMBOL: TVC
FRANKFURT SYMBOL: TGP

FEBRUARY 16, 2004 - 07:00 ET

Tournigan Gold Corporation: High-Grade Gold Intersects at Curraghinalt

VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--Tournigan Gold Corporation
("Tournigan") has intersected an exceptional ore-shoot of
high-grade gold mineralization in two diamond drill holes during recent feasibility drilling on the Curraghinalt gold project in Northern Ireland.

Drillhole CT-13 returned assay values of 68.07 grams of gold…

These drill holes form part of Tournigan`s ongoing feasibility infill drilling at Curraghinalt, designed to advance the project towards a feasibility study and production. Results are summarized as follows:

weiter....

http://www2.ccnmatthews.com/scripts/ccn-release.pl?/current/…

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/bonner/bonner021604.html

More Perfect Unions

Bill Bonner
The Daily Reckoning
Posted February, 16, 2004

The Daily Reckoning presents: A DR Classique, originally aired April 3, 2001 - a musing on love, marriage, and, of course, the stock market, to get you in the mood for Valentine`s Day...

"No."
"Was it better with him?"
"No."
"Then why did you do it?"
"Who knows?"" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"Do you love him?"
"No."
"Was it better with him?"
"No."
"Th…

from "Don`t Wake Mother,"
by Jean Anouilh

The subject was not roses. The subject was thorns: adultery, a staple of French literature... and perhaps French life.

"You seem shocked," said Sylvie last week. "Don`t women in America cheat on their husbands?" We were reading a novel by Maupassant. I read out loud. Sylvie, a young woman who teaches yoga as well as French, corrects my pronunciation.

In the passage we were reading, a woman takes up with another man when her husband is out of town. In fact, she rents an apartment so they can conduct their liaison without being disturbed.

"I am not so much shocked by what they are doing," I replied, "as by the deliberate way they are doing it."

"I suspect that people in America are not so different," was her response.

"No, American women would agonize and feel more guilt. They would need to talk to psychologists and counselors."

"We French," answered Sylvie, "prefer to save our suffering for Hell."

Long-time Daily Reckoning sufferers know that we range far and wide - looking for the rare mushroom of insight that might have grown up overnight... But new readers may be surprised. This is a financial service, isn`t it?

Yesterday, I promised to tell you how to tell when the stock market bottoms out. And, oh yes, I also promised more - including how to find love... and how to have a happy marriage. Would it surprise you to learn that the secret is the same for all three?

The paradox of all three things is that you cannot get to them by a direct route. No road sign on life`s highway offers "Love - Exit Here!" Nor will you find a "Last Exit Before Bear Market" signposted on your way to work. And don`t bother to look for "Happy Marriage" on a map. Even with GPS, you will not find it.

If only it weren`t so, I thought to myself as Jack and Mimi exchanged wedding vows on Saturday. I take some tiny portion of the credit for bringing them together. Both worked for my company... at least until one was fired. But by then it was too late - the gravity that was to bring them into mutual orbit had already captured them.

And now, what would happen to them? I feel towards them as I do to my own children: If only I could protect them from the mistakes I`ve made. If only I could protect myself from the mistakes I am about to make!

That is the problem with age and wisdom - it merely shows you how helpless you are. The wiser you become, the more you learn to keep your mouth shut, until eventually the grave silences you forever.

What a pity there is no Federal Reserve system of the heart - a group of wise old graybeards who could protect the currency of love... and keep Jack and Mimi`s union in perpetual expansion, like the U.S. economy, with only an occasional, mild correction. If only there were some way to help them keep their stock rising!

Alas, gentle reader, some things are beyond our comprehension. Others are simply beyond our control.

All across America, investors, TV presenters, and analysts are watching, waiting, and wishing for that Big Bottom of their dreams.

"As stock prices have gone down [in 2000-2001]," reports USA today, "36-year-old Greg Reinhard has looked for opportunities to buy good companies at cheap prices."

"I`m happy with this type of market," he says. "This is when you have to step up to the plate."

Meanwhile, Lisa Jiminez and Jay Maxwell, who share a home if not a name, have "sold nothing during the downturn. As a result, their losses are only on paper."

Roger Pyle, who plans to retire in 6 years, says "I still have a substantial amount in technology, because I believe it`s going to come back."

And Simon Richardson "plans to resume investing in stocks when the market recovers."

How will we know when the market finally finds its big bottom? It will not even be reported in the newspaper. USA Today will not ask people what they are doing with their stock portfolios. And no one will care. [DR Hint: Even during the slump before last year`s `turnaround` rally, we never did see a time when the lumpen lost faith in stocks... and so, we opine, the `Big Bottom` has yet to be reached.]

The bottom will come when people stop looking for it... when investors have given up, and turned their attention away from stocks - maybe even away from their financial lives.

"Get Rich and Stay Rich Forever..." says the headline on WORTH magazine. "The Next Big Money Maker" promises another. (Worth once called me a `genius,` so I am suspicious of anything I read in the magazine.) Those are the not the sort of headlines you find at the bottom of a financial cycle. They are more likely signs of a top - when everyone is obsessed with making money.

Bear markets correct not only stock prices, but attitudes and philosophies. People turn away from the existential pleasures of getting rich NOW! in favor of other things. They turn to gardening. They begin to think about history or read mystery stories. They begin to think about what real value really is.

In financial matters, their eyes drift from the credit side of their personal ledgers to the debit side. They look for costs they can cut... and worry less about getting rich than about avoiding becoming poor.

The Big Bottom, when it finally comes, sneaks up on them... and passes unnoticed.

What should a prudent investor do? He cannot know when the market will go up or down. Should he take advantage of whatever hot opportunity comes along - like a faithless wife when her husband is out of town? Will an investor`s performance be improving by chasing every big bottom that crosses his path... and hopping from one investment liaison to another?

It sounds like fun. But it is not likely to be rewarding.

"Come now. Think about it," urges Mark Rostenko. "Do you really believe that the majority of folks are going to identify the bottom when it shows up? How many times have you picked a stock`s top or bottom successfully? How many people do you think are good at it? Do you have any idea what the statistics are for market timers? I`ll give you a clue: they are aren`t so good."

But if you can`t find a big bottom by looking for it, how can you find it?

By not looking for it, of course.

Warren Buffett, the most successful investor who ever lived, wastes no time looking for bottoms or tops. Instead, he explains that he just wants "great companies at a fair price." But, as prices go up and down, they are not always `fair.` In the late 1960s, for example, Buffett found prices had gotten too high. He explained to his clients that he could find nothing worth buying at the time - and returned their money. Coincidentally, Buffett had found the top. Stock prices peaked out soon after and didn`t begin to recover until 12 years later - at which point, Buffett found many good companies at prices that were more than fair. Without looking for it, Buffett had found the bottom too, as a by-product of sticking to his tried-and-true principles.

Is that the way to find love and happiness, too - as a by-product of simply sticking to the basics, the rules, and the important principles? I don`t know, dear reader, but I am naive and sentimental enough to hope so.

Bill Bonner



Editor`s Note: Bill Bonner is the founder and editor of The Daily Reckoning. He is also the author, with Addison Wiggin, of the NY Times, Wall Street Journal and international bestseller: "Financial Reckoning Day: Surviving The Soft Depression of The 21st Century" (John Wiley & Sons).

________________
321gold Inc Miami USA

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.interfax.ru/e/B/0/26.html?id_issue=8674284

Finance & Business

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Feb 16 2004 3:54PM

Ruble`s value in gold shrinks 14.2%

MOSCOW. Feb 16 (Interfax) - The ruble backed by the country`s gold and currency reserves was equivalent to 3.053 milligrams of gold at the start of this year, down 14.2% from 3.558 milligrams at the start of 2003, according to calculations by the Interfax Financial Information Agency.

The calculations were based on the Central Bank`s official broad- definition money base statistics for 2003, and on the country`s gold and foreign-exchange reserves valued at international bullion and forex market rates.

The CB said its broad money supply grew 55.3% during 2003, f…

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.newsalert.com/bin/story?StoryId=CqdboubKbmdq3yJCZ…

February 16, 2004 10:09

Jaguar Mining To Trade On Toronto Stock Exchange; TSX Listing Approved

CONCORD, N.H., Feb 16, 2004 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- The Toronto Stock Exchange ("TSX") has approved the listing of the common shares of Jaguar Mining Inc. ("Jaguar"). Jaguar will delist from the TSX Venture Exchange and begin trading on the TSX with the symbol "JAG" on February 17, 2004.

Gold Producer; Active Exploration

Jaguar is a low cost gold producer with an active expansion …

Jaguar has 18,936,887 common shares outstanding (23,663,881 fully diluted).

The statements that are not historical facts are forward-looking statements involving known and unknown risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to vary considerably from these statements. Readers are cautioned not to put undue reliance on forward-looking statements.

Jaguar`s securities have not been registered under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and may not be offered, sold or resold in the United States or to a U.S. person absent registration or an applicable exemption from the registration requirements.

The TSX Venture Exchange has not reviewed and does not accept responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this release.

SOURCE: Jaguar Mining Inc.

Jaguar Mining Inc.
Daniel Titcomb, 603-224-4800
603-228-8045 (FAX)
or
Robert Jackson, 603-224-4800
603-228-8045 (FAX)
[e-mail]
www.jaguarmining.com

[ThaiGuru]

Tough year for Anglo Platinum

Johannesburg

16 February 2004 11:28

[/u][/b]A strong rand and higher production meant that Anglo Platinum`s headline earnings declined by 62,8% in 2003, compared to the previous year, chief executive officer Ralph Havenstein said on Monday.

In a media statement the group said it had achieved a gross profit margin of 23,7%, and declared a final dividend of 270 cents per share.[/u][/b]

weiter...

http://www.mg.co.za/Content/l3.asp?a=0&o=42629

[ThaiGuru]

Monday February 16, 1:08 PM EST

Wheaton River stock up 6 pct on mining output jump

(In U.S. dollars unless noted)

TORONTO, Feb 16 (Reuters) - Wheaton River Minerals Ltd.`s (WRM) shares rose 6 percent on Monday after the junior gold and silver miner said its production increased more than 300 percent in 2003.

Shares of Vancouver, British Columbia-based Wheaton rose as high as C$3.95 before retreating to C$3.83 early on Monday afternoon on the Toronto Stock Exchange, for a gain of 10 Canadian cents, or 2.7 percent.

A series of acquisitions helped boost Wheaton`s production 325 percent to 450,000 gold equivalent ounces in 2003, compared with 106,000 gold equivalent ounces in 2002.

As well, the miner cut its cash cost by 66 percent to $62 an ounce from $182 an ounce in 2002.

Gold equivalent production includes Wheaton`s silver output, which is "converted" to gold output by using a ratio of the two precious metals` prices.



http://money.iwon.com/jsp/nw/nwdt_rt_top.jsp?cat=TOPBIZ&src=…

[ThaiGuru]

February 16, 2004 14:33

Corriente Resources Inc.: First Assays from Feasibility Drilling at Mirador-Thick Section of High Grade Enriched Copper Discovered


http://www.newsalert.com/bin/story?StoryId=CqdboubKbmdq3yJC0…

[ThaiGuru]

February 16, 2004 15:23

High Gold Prices Spur More Interest in Commodity
By Dave DeWitte, The Gazette, Cedar Rapids, Iowa
Feb. 13--Gold prices near a 20-year high are stimulating a wave of interest in a shiny commodity that`s largely ignored by mainstream investors.

Gold prices hit $400 per ounce in November, pushed higher by political instability in the Middle East. Prices have fluctuated above and below the $400 mark since, reaching $405.75 per ounce Wednesday.

Buying and selling gold is on a strong upward trend, according to local businesses that deal in the metal.

"November and December was so hot on gold and silver that several of the coin shops in the area couldn`t get enough of it," says Brian Fanton, owner of the Hiawatha Coin Shoppe.

weiter....


http://www.newsalert.com/bin/story?StoryId=CqcXz0aicq1iTr09m…

[ThaiGuru]

Tuesday February 17, 4:10 AM
Private bankers bullish on gold
By Steven Irvine

At a discussion with a key group of Asia`s most powerful private banks in Singapore yesterday (Monday), we ended the discussion by getting a show of hands on various predictions for 2004. The nine who participated were American Express Private Bank; Bank Sarasin-Rabo; BNP Paribas Private Bank; Citigroup Private Bank; Credit Suisse Private Banking; Dresdner Private Bank; MeesPierson; UBS and Global Strategies (not a private bank, but an advisory firm for private clients).

Here are the seven questions we asked and the results:



Will gold be higher at year end than today?
Yes = 9
No = 0

…


http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/040216/23/3i2qs.html

[bluemoons]

Wie sichere ich mein Vermögen und Unternehmen


http://www.elliott-waves.de/forum/Euklid_Vermoegensrettung.p…

[ThaiGuru]

@bluemoons

Zu Deinem letzten Posting, ein Auszug aus der Analyse

"Wie sichere ich mein Vermögen und Unternehmen?"

Literatur von Eberhard und Eike Hamer Olzog Verlag

Ergebnisse von Arbeitsgruppen mit dem Moderator Walter Hirt, Prof. Dr. Eberhard Hamer, Deutsche Mittelstandsstiftung

Das derzeitige Währungssystem der Welt weist momentan ungehe…

[ThaiGuru]

WEEKLY COMMENTARY

February 16, 2004

KEEPING THE PRESSURE ON

By Theodore Butler

At first, when I read the following press release from the NYMEX/COMEX, I was angry. Then, I realized that this was a time for pushing ahead in a professional and logical manner, as the stakes were too important. First, here`s the press release -

Title: Exchange Expands Retail Customer Protection

NEW YORK, NY, February 12, 2004 — The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc., today established additional retail customer protections supported by a commitment of at least $10 million available at all times to promptly reimburse retail customers in the event that their clearing member defaults as a result of a default by another customer and the customer account margin funds are used to address the default.

Retail customers are defined as those do not otherwise qualify as an "eligible contract participant" under the requirements of Section 1a(12) of the Commodity Exchange Act, and are not floor traders or floor brokers on the Exchange or family members of an Exchange floor trader or floor broker who maintain an account at the same clearing firm.

Exchange President J. Robert Collins, Jr., said, "While the …

Let`s analyze this release. Even though the word default(s) was used four times, and the word silver was not used at all, it’s likely that this press release concerned a default in COMEX silver. There has not been a hint of delivery default in any of the NYMEX`s portfolio of commodities, save silver. That`s because only silver has a short position, of all commodities, that dwarfs world production and known world inventories. Add that to the fact that silver is in a consumption deficit and trades at an artificially depressed price, and you have the ingredients for an inevitable default, as long as those facts remain in place.

There is good news and bad news in this press release. The good news is that the NYMEX is probably aware of the serious problem it has in its silver contract and is trying to address it. The exchange`s awareness has likely come as a result of outside pressure from ordinary investors writing in - like you. So much for those who would say writing in was a waste of time. This press release seems to prove that we are making a difference.

The bad news is that this attempt at resolving the default problem in silver is a joke. It comes from the manipulative shorts themselves, in lieu of a real solution to the default problem. It is like applying a Band-Aid to a fracture, when good medical care is readily available. Ten million dollars to solve the silver default problem? With hundreds of millions of ounces of naked shorts held by a few traders, even a billion dollars would be insufficient. But it`s not a question of money, it`s a question of material. Money is a Band-Aid. It does not address the underlying problem - too many naked shorts and not enough real silver. Worse, there is qualified medical help standing by, ready to fix the broken limb, and it is being waved off by the NYMEX.

There is a simple, fair, and effective cure to the silver default problem. It doesn`t require ten million dollars or ten billion dollars from the exchange. It is free. It won`t put a Band-Aid on the fracture, it will cure it for all time. It will restore integrity to the COMEX silver market. It is such a perfect solution to the silver default problem, that not one word has been, or could be, publicly spoken against it. (But, be sure plenty is spoken against it privately - by the manipulative silver shorts.) It’s my solution of certifying that the longs and shorts are qualified to complete their respective delivery responsibilities by first notice of delivery day - the longs by depositing the full cash value of their contracts, and the shorts by depositing unencumbered COMEX warehouse receipts. By mandating that all participants are ready on the first delivery day, and not waiting until the last day to find out that someone may not be ready, the default possibility is eliminated. Please see, "The Solution" -

Http://www.investmentrarities.com/09-29-03.html

The NYMEX and the CFTC are doing everything they can to igno…

For one, adopting my proposal will level the playing field for all market participants and take away one of the naked shorts` most effective manipulative tools. The regulators don`t want that to occur because they don`t want the shorts to lose the unfair advantage they have had. What unfair advantage? Let me explain.

In futures trading, all contracts expire, or come due time-wise, on, or before the final trading day, and all participants must close-out their contracts, either by delivery or liquidation (including roll-overs to further out months.) Longs must accept delivery or sell or roll-over their contracts. Shorts must make delivery, or buy back or roll-over their contracts. On paper, and in principle, this is simple, straightforward and fair. What is not fair is how these futures expirations work in the real world. The shorts always unfairly ambush the longs on expirations, with the regulators pretending not to notice. Not that I should need to tell you, but the longs are always the little guys (the public), while the shorts are always the Silver Managers. Big surprise. In fact, of all the commodities traded, COMEX silver is the only one, ever, where the public (small trader category) has always been net long the market, and the commercials (Silver Managers) have always been net short. Always.

The advantage the commercial shorts hold is that they know the longs must close out, or roll-over, their silver contracts on expiration and the commercial shorts can sit back and wait until the little longs come to them. Sure, the commercial shorts have to close out their contracts, but the shorts have an important unfair advantage in knowing there will be big pressure put on the little longs, by their brokers (some who are the very same Silver Managers), to get out before first delivery day, to avoid, at a minimum, heavy extra brokerage commissions and fees that are costs the shorts can generally avoid. The shorts don`t have the pressure of getting out by first delivery day. The two weeks leading up to first delivery day, is when the pressure is most severe on the longs.

The mathematical proof of this unfair advantage is that for 99%+ of all the COMEX silver futures expirations for the past 20 years (the life of the manipulation), the spread difference between the expiring month and the next delivery month in COMEX silver is always the widest on the day or days before first delivery day. This costs the longs real money (millions of dollars, cumulatively) and proves they are the side under pressure.

My solution would change all that. My solution would level the playing field. By forcing the shorts to be delivery-capable by first delivery day, they wouldn`t be able to bluff until the last delivery day, at the end of the month. This is a win-win solution. It makes the market fairer and guarantees against a default. No wonder the shorts hate it.

The shorts have dominated the silver market long enough. It`s now time for the free market to work.

That the NYMEX/COMEX and the CFTC won`t even acknowledge the existence of the perfect solution to a silver default shows that they are more interested in protecting the big naked shorts, at the expense of all other participants and the market itself. This is shameful.

Another reason the CFTC and the NYMEX are acting like the three monkeys in seeing no evil, hearing no evil and speaking no evil is that to address it honestly and professionally would force them to acknowledge that the rest of my analysis on the silver market may be legitimate as well. It is easier for them to pretend that this perfect solution, as well as my other analysis doesn`t exist, than to debate it. They don`t want to open up a can of worms. Believe me, I`m not looking for a pat on the back. I’m looking for an end to the silver manipulation.

I believe that the days of the CFTC and the NYMEX looking the other way, or advancing sham solutions designed by the silver shorts themselves, are coming to an end. Ordinary silver investors are not stupid. They won`t tolerate more of the same. There are over 2700 names on the silver petition. This is extraordinary and unprecedented. The comments there are powerful. In addition, hundreds have written to the regulators concerning silver. This is not happening in other commodities and has never happened in any other commodity. Regular people can see the problems, as well as the solutions, even if the regulators pretend not to.

This is an extraordinary time we live in. In addition to being presented with the investment opportunity of a lifetime, an opportunity that can meaningfully impact the financial security of our families, we are also being presented with the opportunity to actively participate in the termination of the greatest market manipulation of all time.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

February 16 - Gold $409.90 - Silver $6.55

Gold Higher In Overseas Trading / Café Sentiment Indicator

If you have an important point to make, don`t try to be subt…
Winston Churchill, Sir (1874-1965)

Gold rallied a bit to $411.40, up $1.50, in late London trading. Silver was steady.

Veteran Café members may be wondering why I haven’t mentioned the Café Sentiment Indicator in some time. (The indicator is a composite which measures investor sentiment. It is calculated in casual fashion based on number of Cafe hits, new trials, new paying members and email traffic. Ten is the highest investor sentiment number, 1 the lowest.) The reason for the delay is there has been a major change since the first week of this year.

In the past the Café Sentiment Indicator would shoot up as the gold price rose and fall when the price retreated. It would also rise more in the short-term following relatively dramatic price rises and when there was financial market turmoil in general.

At the end of last year, even though the gold price was hovering in the $420’s, the indicator showed no real signs of excitement. It ranged from 3 to 6, which indicated lackluster public interest in gold, considering the price rise. However, this past month with gold falling out of bed, the indicator has gone up to a 7, reaching an 8 at times, even though the price has been flat to DOWN! I have been waiting to see if I could understand what is going on out there, what has changed.

It seems to me we are witnessing a gradual awareness of gold’s importance and why it might be a valuable addition to investment portfolios. Over the past years there were a number of veteran gold investors who had an ear to gold, but only got excited on price rallies. These investors had been numbed over the years due to the intense capping by The Gold Cartel. Every time gold should have rallied, it failed to do so. The strong performance by the US stock market last year also kept most of the investing public out of the gold arena.

Well, it is a new year and a Presidential election one at that. The Democrats keep pounding away at what a mess the Bush Administration has made out of US fiscal affairs. The fact that the chickens are going to come home to roost in the near future is becoming more apparent to many investors. More in the mainstream are writing about gold and its price possibilities, even when most know nothing about the real gold story. However, no longer is it the investment one cannot speak of in polite company.

The Vancouver Investment Conference of three weeks ago alerted me to the notion of a building gold audience, a whole slew of first time investors showed up that were new to the sector. The place was packed. Interest was high, but appropriately restrained.

While in the past, a rising Café Sentiment Indicator was negative because it inferred too much bullishness, the reverse is true for the moment. The gold market is a tiny one. Many of these new gold investors are just getting their feet wet. I am sure many have not bought gold or gold shares yet, but they will. Their interest has been picqued.

More importantly, what we are seeing is only the tip of the iceberg of gold investors still to enter the arena. The VERY tip. This past year was a calm one for the financial markets. Volatility was low and stock markets roared ahead. All that should change as this year goes on. US monetary and fiscal stimulus should have about run its course, the dollar should weaken further, hard to see interest rates going any lower and the Iraqi War mess is likely to worsen. Meanwhile, the gold/silver fundamentals are as good as they get. Each month The Gold Cartel’s ability to hold down the price of each of these precious metals deteriorates. The likelihood of gold and silver price explosions this year is very high. When the US stock market falters badly and gold takes out $430, it is likely this first wave of new investor interest will turn TIDAL in nature. Western investment demand for gold will soar and the quality gold/silver shares will go berserk as MILLIONS of investors will scramble to be a part of a GOLD RUSH!

Most of the investing public still remains gold clueless. Go…

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

Gold performing the Indian rope trick?

By John Brimelow

Last Update: 12:01 AM ET Feb 16, 2004

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Gold refused to slide last week, amid general surprise. Reason: it seems to be performing its own version of the Indian rope trick.

Earlier in February, bullion slipped below $400 for the first time in two months. That appeared to validate the gold shares, which had steadfastly refused to confirm gold`s stab at $430 in January.

Technicians worried that an ugly double top had formed. Optimists vanished. The Hulbert Gold Newsletter Sentiment Index [HGNSI] was down to an astonishing negative 15.4 percent, suggesting that the average gold timer was actually net short the market."

All this suddenly changed on the morning of Friday, Feb. 6. Mildly worse-than-expected economic data triggered a powerful gold surge, over $15 intra-day to $410.

Gold spent the subsequent week battling to break above the range established that day -- checked as usual by the mysterious bouts of heavy selling that have characterized every upward move in this great rally since it started almost three years ago.

Gold bulls have been galvanized. First off the mark: Richard Band of Profitable Investing, a conservative contrarian who is rarely seen in gold nowadays. I remember Band brilliantly navigating South African gold shares in the 1980s, when periodic hurricanes of anti-apartheid rage greatly complicated trading. Band recommended buying two gold shares last Monday: Newmont and Bema .

The Aden sisters were convinced by the time of their weekly comment in their Aden Forecast Thursday:

"It`s staring to look gold`s D decline is over and if it is,…

And the chartist Martin Pring of Pring.com, cool to gold for some months, followed on Friday:

"The latest... buy signal must be taken seriously. If it tur…

This would not be the first time gold shares have misjudged the metal, later following its lead upward. The same thing happened last fall.

It`s very stressful.

However, I find a great deal of the stress caused by trying to outguess gold is eliminated by simply following the money: the physical market. This boils down to finding out if the world`s largest buyer, India, is importing or not.

Much disinformation is offered on this subject, not least by the Indian importers themselves, who prefer low prices and high throughput. But actually, the matter can be simply resolved by calculating the U.S. dollar equivalent of the domestic prices. So every day I circulate this data to my clients, and it is published on LeMetropoleCafe.com in the evening.

This principle is demonstrated on the Web site of India`s National Multi-Commodity Exchange ("Commodity Study" section).

The bottom line: Below $400 India is a huge buyer. The situa…

Gold may be moving up again, soon.

[ThaiGuru]

Gold:



Silber:



Dollar:

[ThaiGuru]

Dollar steigt etwas, fällt der Dollar gleich um 10 bis 14 Dollars, Fällt der Dollar wieder, wie gerade jetzt, darf Gold gerade mal 1 bis 2 Dollar steigen.

Da müssen wir wohl noch durch?

Gruss

Thaiguru

[ThaiGuru]

Canadian players lead China gold rush

Government reforms ease way for miners

BEIJING -- Canadian mining companies are leading a new gold rush in China, taking advantage of government reforms that make it easier for Western investors to set up shop in the potentially huge Chinese gold sector



http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/ArticleNews/TPStory/L…

[ThaiGuru]

Harmony mineworkers return to work
February 16, 2004, 03:24 PM

Workers at the Harmony gold mines in the Free State and North West returned to work today, after the union and Harmony, reached a settlement on the wage dispute yesterday.

Moferefere Lekorotsoana, the spokesperson of the National Union of Mineworkers (NUM), confirmed in a statement, that an agreement was reached yesterday afternoon. Ferdi Dippenaar, Harmony`s spokesperson, also confirmed the agreement, saying NUM accepted the 9% the company had offered to be effective from January 1 this year to June 31.



http://www.sabcnews.com/economy/business/0,2172,74124,00.htm…

[superman6]

Nun nochmal zu Cambrian und Investika.
Cambrian über London und Invetika über
SYD zu ordern.

wie ihr wisst hat cambrian mining eine 18% beteiligung an ivernia west(ivw.to)


schaut mal was gestern mit ivernia west passiert ist(+32%)



cambrian mining ist diese beteiligung eingegangen bei $CAN 0,04

+550% buchgewinn fuer cambrian mining



Schaut euch heute auch die Investika genau an.

[bluemoons]

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/dani021804.html

[ThaiGuru]

@Superman6

Habe mir heute Deine IVERNIA WEST mal angeschaut!

Mal im Ernst was soll denn daran so toll sein.

Die Aktie fällt, zudem noch bei steigendem Goldpreis.



Lustig auch zu sehen, wie Dein anderer Favorit INVESTIKA in Australien nach Yahoo Finanz NULL-KOMMA-NULL Umsatz vorzuweisen hat, hingegen die Aktie in Frankfurt bei einem Umsatz von unwahscheinlichen 4000.- Euro gleich um 17% ansteigt, mindestens zur Zeit noch.

Toll, einfach toll Superman6

Wie machst Du das nur!

[ulfur]

@thai, so schlecht schaut der Chart auch nicht aus

[superman6]

an thai-guru

schau dir doch Cambrian und Investika heute mal
an.

[Magor]

# 8500

"... Fällt der Dollar wieder, wie gerade jetzt, darf Gold gerade mal 1 bis 2 Dollar steigen.
Da müssen wir wohl noch durch?"

Was ist los Thai? Warum Trübsal, oder wolltest Du nur die runde Zahl markieren und Dir fiel nichts besseres ein?

Läuft doch prima heute! Die Metalle haben sich von der Konsolidierung verabschiedet und ihre Richtung wiedergefunden!
Ich warte schon mit Vorfreude auf den ersten Tag, wo die Leute Panik bekommen, ob sie noch rechtzeitig reinkommen. Und der kommt, ganz bestimmt! Einer der Freitage wird es sein, vielleicht schon sehr bald.

Wenn Du unter # 8482 den Artikel von John Hathaway meintest, den Du unter #8455 reingestellt hattest, den meinte ich mit meiner Bemerkung gestern, wo ich die Nümmerchen allerdings durcheinandergebracht hatte:
„Nun werde ich mich durch den auch interessant erscheinenden Artikel aus Deinem # 8474 durcharbeiten“.
Mit John Hathaway hatte ich im Vorjahr auch mal ein Interview gelesen, den ich recht interessant fand.
Seine Ausarbeitung könnte auf die folgende Essenz eingedampft werden:

What is the “real” value of a dollar?
The problem is that the prices that are being measured are themselves fake. Preposterous? Blame it on manipulated exchange rates. Does the dollar trade at 8.3 renminbi or 105 yen because of intrinsic value? Asian governments that peg or manipulate their currencies to these levels have no interest in value. An undervalued renminbi is needed to create jobs and investment. It is for the United States, “an unholy partnership with its Asian creditors….
… As a result, “the prices are fake. The exchange rates are manipulated, the interest rates are adulterated and the product prices are contrived.” (Grant’s 1/16/04) ….

… safe havens offered by the euro or the yen will eventually yield only losses. While these currencies provide a liquid alternative in the short run, their fate is inseparable from the dollar. The three are like inebriated celebrants wobbling home, propping each other up and incapable of orbiting too far from their collective gravity
The day when each becomes confetti is within sight.
Anmerkung: Das hat er aber schön zu Karneval beschrieben (Carne-Vale = schluss mit Fleisch ... oder auch, Schluss mit Lustig ... )

….. what is the value of a dollar? For us, the simplest and most reliable measure is the amount of dollars required to buy a fixed quantity of gold

Außer mir sind ganz sicher noch etliche hier, die sich auch für das englische Zeug interessieren, wo zugegebenermaßen viel geschehensnaher Fundierteres zu finden ist, als in deutscher Sprache.
Ich finde, im Gegensatz zu früher, es persönlich fantastisch, dass Fachleute und Sachkundige aus aller Welt sich über das Englische direkt einbringen können! Auch meine persönlichen Kontakte bereichert es ungemein, denn ansonsten müsste ich so etliche andere Sprachen beherrschen, um mit den jeweiligen kommunizieren zu können.
Die Vorteile sind nicht von der Hand zu weisen!

Ein Problem werfen sie dennoch auf:
Trotz meiner einigermaßen guten Englischkenntnisse sind die Texte häufig arg schwierig, mit verdrehten Schachtelsätzen und oft mit selbst in den besten Wörterbüchern nicht findbaren finanztechnischen (oder selbstgezwirbelten) Fachbegriffen vollgespickt. Auch bei manchen deutschen Fachaufsätzen liest man den einen oder anderen Satz ja zwei-dreimal, bis man ihn versteht, geschweige denn dann im Englischen, was manchmal tatsächlich ein sich regelrechtes durchkämpfen bedeutet.

Es ärgert mich die Tatsache, dass gerade bei lang und breit ausgemalten Aufsätzen sich selten eine Kurz-Zusammenfassung finden lässt darüber, worum es im Tenor eigentlich geht.

Hier finde ich Dein Hervorheben durch Unterstreichung, oder schon mal kurze Kommentierung als sehr hilfreich.

Es ist nicht alles für alle gleichermaßen interessant! Manche Autoren verrennen sich zu selbstgefällig in epische Prosa. So ist es für mich z.B. wichtig, mit einem ersten überfliegen festzustellen, ob der (zeitliche) Aufwand (für meine Interessen) lohnend erscheint tiefer einzusteigen. Für alle Beiträge durchzulesen fehlt mir einfach die Zeit.

Irgendwo hatte ich es schon mal geschrieben, dass ich Deine Leistung hier im Board absolut bewundere. Ich schaffe es kaum, das für mich wesentlich erscheinende mitzulesen und für meinen Bedarf zu werten …
Du musst anscheinend 3-4 fleissige Helfer haben, die all diese Info´s für Dich vorsortieren, redigieren ….
Und gar archivieren …
Bei der Menge einströmender Infos, hier, und auch unter Gold-Eagle, wo ich regelmäßig lese, ist es für mich schon aus Zeitgründen wichtig, zu wissen, wessen Meinungen / Wertvorstellungen und Interessen den meinen ähnlich sind, und daher auch die von ihm als interessant empfundenen Infos sich dann nicht, oder zumindest sehr selten als Zeitverschwendung entpuppen!
Darauf konnte man sich bei Deinen Beiträgen zumeist gut verlassen!
Genauso, wie Du wahrscheinlich auch, bin ich auf längerfristige Anlagestrategien angewiesen. Ich kann nicht, wie manche es in ihren Threads lustig empfehlen, heute mit allem reinspringen, und morgen mit allem wieder raus …, schon allein aus Gründen der diversifizierten und auch einander absichernden Anlagen heraus ist das garnicht möglich für mich. So sind für mich längerfristig währende Ideen und kein nervöses tägliches hin- und hergehopse wichtig und maßgebend.

Ergo:
Nomen est Omen : - )
Selbst, wenn Du dafür nicht vergütet wirst, erweckt Deine bisherige gute Arbeit dennoch Ansprüche an Dich!
Ansprüche daran, dass die von Dir hier reingestellten Beiträge nicht irgendwelche Fantastereien, oder einfach nur Mist, sondern diese von Dir für wichtig gehaltene Informationen sind! Hier sollte auch das Augenmerk weiterhin auf die Qualität der Beiträge und nicht auf die Quantität liegen!

Nur weiter so!
Es gibt keinen Grund für den geringsten Durchhänger!

Grüße
Magor

[ulfur]

Ein Brief an Alan Greenspan

von unserem Korrespondenten Bill Bonner

*** In den USA beschäftigen sich auch links stehende Politiker mit der Wirtschaftslage und mit dem Meister des Universums, Alan Greenspan höchstpersönlich. So der Abgeordnete Bernie Sanders aus dem US-Bundesstaat Vermont von den "Independent Democratic Socialists":

"Wal-Mart hat General Motors als größten Arbeitgeber abgelöst, mit über 1 Million Angestellten, und die Arbeiter bei Wal-Mart verdienen kein Mitteklasse-Gehalt, sondern Hungerlöhne von 13.861 Dollar pro Jahr – ein Gehalt, das unter der Armutsgrenze liegt. Währenddessen sind 4 der 10 reichsten Amerikaner Verwandte von Sam Walton, dem Gründer von Wal-Markt, und ihr Vermögen liegt bei über 100 Milliarden Dollar. Dank den Steuersenkungen von Bush, die Sie (damit ist Alan Greenspan gemeint) unterstützt haben, wird die Steuerlast der Walton-Familie um 145 Millionen Dollar reduziert werden."

"Im letzten Jahr schlugen Sie (Alan Greenspan) diesem Komitee vor, dass die Zahl der Beschäftigten im produzierenden Gewerbe nicht wichtig sei. Sie sagten: `Ist es wichtig für eine Volkswirtschaft, ein produzierendes Gewerbe zu haben? Es gibt einen großen Disput zu diesem Thema ... Wenn man keine Probleme mit dem Zugang zu im Ausland produzierten Gütern hat, dann denke ich, dass man argumentieren kann, dass es nicht wirklich wichtig ist, ob man diese Güter selbst produziert oder nicht.` Mit anderen Worten: Wenn wir (die Amerikaner) Güter von China kaufen können – wo die Arbeiter Hungerlöhne bekommen, damit sie dieselben Güter produzieren, die die Amerikaner für 20 Dollar pro Stunde herstellen können –, dann ist es egal. Zur Hölle mit den amerikanischen Arbeitern. Zur Hölle mit der Mittelklasse. Wenn die Unternehmen in China Arbeitskräfte für einen Stundenlohn von weniger als einem Dollar einstellen können, dann brauchen wir in den USA keine Mittelklasse-Produktion. Lasst sie bei Wal-Mart für Hungerlöhne und ohne Sozialleistungen arbeiten."

"Fed-Vorsitzender Greenspan, seit sie diese Kommentare im Juli 2003 gemacht haben, sind in den USA weitere 146.000 Jobs im produzierenden Sektor abgebaut worden. Es scheint mir, dass sie genauso wenig wie Jeffrey Immelt, Vorstandsvorsitzender von General Electric (GE), den amerikanischen Arbeiter mögen. Denn der sagte: `Wenn ich zu GE-Managern spreche, dann spreche ich von China, China, China, China, China. Da muss man einfach sein. Man muss die Art, wie die Leute darüber sprechen, ändern, und wie man die Leute dahin bekommt. Ich bin vernarrt in China ... das Auslagern von Betriebsteilen nach China wird auf Werte über 5 Milliarden Dollar steigen. Jede heutige Diskussion muss sich um das Thema China zentrieren. Die Kostenbasis dort ist extrem attraktiv."

"Die Unterstützer des unbegrenzten Freihandels, wie Sie selbst, haben uns gesagt, dass man sich wegen des möglichen Verlustes von Industriearbeitsplätzen keine Sorgen machen brauche. Diese Jobs würden durch hochwertige IT-Jobs mit höherer Bezahlung ersetzt, und die entlassenen Industriearbeiter müssten einfach weitergebildet werden. Wieder falsch, Mr. Greenspan. In den letzten drei Jahren sind in den USA über 540.000 IT-Jobs abgebaut worden, denn diese Jobs wurden in Niedriglohnländer wie Indien oder China verlagert. Und nach einer aktuellen Schule der Haas School of Business sind 14 Millionen höher bezahlte Jobs in den USA –11 % der gesamten amerikanischen Arbeitsplätze – in Gefahr, ins Ausland verlegt zu werden. ( ...) Und laut dem volkswirtschaftlichen Berater von Bush, N. Gregory Mankiw, ist `Outsourcing nur ein neuer Weg des internationalen Handels. Heute sind mehr Dinge handelbar als in der Vergangenheit. Und das ist gut so.`"

"Mr. Greenspan, meine Frage an Sie lautet: Stimmen Sie mit Präsident Bush und dem Vorsitzenden seiner Wirtschaftsberater überein, dass e seine gute Sache für die US-Wirtschaft ist, die amerikanische Produktion und hoch bezahlte Jobs ins Ausland zu verlagern?"

"Mr. Greenspan, während immer mehr Amerikaner immer länger für immer niedrigere Löhne arbeiten und ihre Jobs an die ausländischen billigen Arbeitskräfte verlieren, nutzen diese Menschen gleichzeitig ihre Dispo-Kredite immer stärker aus, um ihre Rechnungen zu bezahlen und um Essen auf den Tisch bringen zu können. Das hat zu einem Rekordwert von 2 Billionen (!) Dollar Konsumentenschulden geführt, und dieser Wert hat sich in weniger als einer Dekade mehr als verdoppelt. Außerdem zur Rekordzahl von 1,6 Millionen Pleiten, ein Zuwachs von 125 % gegenüber 1989.

Obwohl die US-Zentralbank die Leitzinsen auf 1 % gesenkt hat, den niedrigsten Wert seit 1958, und die Hypothekenzinsen im letzten Jahr auf ein 45-Jahres-Tief gefallen sind, sind die durchschnittlichen Zinsen für Kreditkartenschulden seit 2001 gestiegen, auf 16,4 %. Tatsache: Während die Fed die Zinsen gesenkt hat, haben die Kreditkartenherausgeber die Zinsen erhöht, was zu obszönen Gewinnen führte. Der Abstand zwischen den Kreditkartenzinsen und den Leitzinsen ist derzeit auf dem höchsten Niveau seit fast 20 Jahren."

"Mr. Greenspan, vor kurzem haben Sie das Argument vorgebracht, dass der Rekordwert von 2 Billionen Dollar Konsumentenschulden wegen der niedrigen Zinssätze `kein signifikanter Grund für Sorge` sei. Aber da die Zinsen für Kreditkartenschulden bei über 16 % liegen, und einige Konsumenten sogar über 25 % zahlen, und die Kreditkartenfirmen durch Gebühren für Zahlungsverzögerungen den Rekordwert von 7,3 Milliarden Dollar eingenommen haben – wie werden da die Mittelklasse-Amerikaner jemals dazu fähig sein, ihre Kreditkartenrechnungen bezahlen zu können? Was wird passieren, wenn die Leitzinsen steigen? Wird das nicht das Rückgrat der amerikanischen Mittelklasse brechen?"

www.investor-verlag.de

[79Protonen]

Ich habe bei den englischen Beiträgen das Problem, dass ich da nicht so gut erkennen kann, ob jemand ein Übertreiber und Phantast ist, oder seriös.

In deutscher Sprache kann man schon vom Stil eines Textes her den Inhalts in eine bestimmte Schublade tun. Zumindest manchmal.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

February 17 - Gold $415.70 up $5.80 - Silver $6.75 up 20 cents

GATA Has Cartel Silver Shorts On The Run

One ought never to turn one`s back on a threatened danger an… Winston Churchill

GO GATA!!!!

I couldn’t pass up that headline for this MIDAS. Spoke with one of the superstars in the gold industry this morning and he made a specific comment about our efforts to expose the silver fraud with Eliot Spitzer et al. Whether all of our efforts are just timely, lucky, or are actually scaring the pants off the authorities and the large cabal shorts, it doesn’t matter. You know what they say about being lucky or good. The bottom line is silver has gone almost straight up since the GATA ARMY began our silver campaign. Congrats to all of you who have participated. For those who haven’t done so yet, please jump on board GATA’s Silver Streak!

Bill,

I am certain the Butler-GATA letter writing campaign is pressuring the silver shorts by destroying their cover. As the shorts look out their windows and see all the "little guys" taking delivery of physical silver, the scene must resemble townspeople with pitchforks and torches coming for the monster.

Go GATA!

Peter Rhalter

Both gold and silver closed on their highs. The difference w…

Seems The Gold Cartel is bent on capping gold at $3 rallies at a time. First it was $410, then $413 and now $416. Won’t do them much good in the end. They are doomed.

Put another + on the "10+++" gold fundamentals. After a natu…

CRB:

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/RB/W

Once the CRB clears 270, it is off to the races!

Gold is the big laggard and we know why. How comforting to know an Orwellian Mafia (The Gold Cartel) is looking out for the good of all Americans, especially those who spend an inordinate amount of time preoccupying themselves with reality TV shows.

The gold open interest gained 2818 contracts on Friday to 242,883. The specs piled in and The Gold Cartel took gold down on the terrible US trade number. Silver liquidated slightly to 117,017, down 1176 contracts. Silver is trading differently than gold because the hit squad is running out of physical supply to continue their long running fraud. Those who don’t have that supply are going to be forced to run for the hills. Some did on Friday, which is why the open interest went down and silver closed not far from unchanged after the big break.

Silver closed in 6-year high ground, busting through a tripl…

Silver:

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SV/34

With the copper price soaring, the investment community is c…

Gold:

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/44

Nothing wrong with that gold chart. We ought to see $430 again fairly soon.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

The John Brimelow Report

No cigar for the Bears

Tuesday, February 17, 2004

Indian ex-duty premiums:

MONDAY: AM $5.23, PM $5.00, with world gold at $409.75 and $410.80. Adequate (PM a little narrowly) for legal imports.

TUESDAY: AM $3.86, PM $3.56, with world gold at $412.75 and $414.15. Below legal import point.

India clearly prefers world gold below $410. The Bombay Stoc…

A Reuters story from India today, however, amidst the usual moaning, does carry the observations:

"Traders said jewellers would not wait for prices to fall su…

So it appears the world’s key bullion buyer is adjusting to current prices.

Reuters also carries a story that demand for physical has picked up in Japan. This is plausible, as even after the recent recovery yen prices are close to a two-year low. TOCOM only reflects this faintly. Volume did rise to the equivalent of 38,644 Comex lots, 147% above Monday’s feeble level, and open interest has risen the equivalent of 1,732 Comex in the past two days, to equal 124,865 NY contracts. On both days gold edged higher in the Far East. (On Thursday Comex open interest was 240,065; Friday’s volume was estimated at a staggering 85,000 lots, notwithstanding the short session.)

Friday was, of course very illuminating. Australia’s Privateer provides the most succinct account (as it frequently does):


"In early morning trading on the Comex on Friday, February 13, four events occurred. Gold was set in London on the PM fix at $US 416.00, a rise of $US 4.40 on the previous day. The December US trade deficit and the deficit for the year of 2003 was announced. The December deficit was $US 42.5 Billion - up 11% from November. The 2003 deficit was $US 489.4 Billion - a 17% increase over the previous annual record which was set in 2002. On top of that, US consumer confidence in (early) February was reported to have fallen by 10 points or nearly 10%. And finally, and most ominous of all, the US Labor Department reported that US import prices had risen by 1.3% in January. That was triple Wall Street "estimates" of 0.4%."

"As could have been expected, the $US index, which had touched a new 2004 closing low of 85.36 on February 11, plunged below the 85 level in early trading and the Euro rose within a whisker of its 2004 highs."

"Then came the turnaround. The $US index recovered to close with a (small) gain on the day while spot future Gold plunged from intraday highs of $US 416 to $US 408 before recovering to close down $US 3.40 at $US 410.30."

"Given the one-two-three (trade deficit, consumer confidence, import prices) punch which hit early in the day, this big US Dollar turnaround looks close to miraculous. That is, until one notices that after all the bad news was out, the Euro suddenly fell more than one US cent as a "big European bank" sold 2 Billion Euros for $US. …And, of course, this big sale of Euros for Dollars instantly sparked rumours that the ECB (European Central Bank) was (finally) intervening in the currency markets."" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"The Plot Thickens"

"In early morning trading on the Comex …

Gold’s move, of course far exceeded the proportions of the dollar fluctuation for the simple reason that selling in gold was far more aggressive. As mentioned above, the estimated volume was 85,000 despite the session being short: over 50,000 contracts were supposedly packed into the last hour. The daily volume for the week after Thursday was only 41,000. During the week several references were made here to the resolute seller which appeared to be lurking around $413: Friday offered the opportunity for a charge.

As a consequence, no doubt, Reuters reports the Far East is flooded with physical:


"Demand is okay, but (there`s) a lot of supply," said Ellison Chu, a senior manager at Standard Bank London in Hong Kong …Gold bars in Hong Kong were offered at a discount of between 15 and 20 U.S. cents an ounce, unchanged from last week, despite fresh demand from consuming countries such as India, China and South Korea"" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"SINGAPORE, Feb 17 (Reuters) - Physical gold demand has resu…

The very magnitude of this effort is encouraging to gold’s friends. As several observers not, the CFTC large spec long is back down to the levels of last summer, a third lower than only a month ago. Every week which passes sees the key physical markets getting more used to > $400 gold. Their failure to break gold down, having (upon careful observation) tried very hard, is creating a serious problem for the Bears.

JB

[ThaiGuru]

@Magor

Nix mit Trübsal!

Trotzdem müssen wir da noch durch. Durch sind wir erst wenn …

Gruss

ThaiGuru

PS: Bei mir gibt`s keine Angestellten, hingegen Computerprogramme, die mir die Recherchen im Netz, und das Posten der Meldungen stark erleichtern. Redigieren tue ich die Meldungen jedoch alle selbst.

[bluemoons]

http://www.goldseiten.de/ansichten/bogner-2004_02.pdf

[Wasserzeichen]

@bluemoons

Danke für`s reinstellen!
Anmerkung zu Deinem chart: Das ist die erste €/Silber-Analyse
bei gold-eagle.Scheint aus Frankreich zu kommen.Ich denke der Schreiber hat recht und wir haben hier bald die letzte Gelegenheit,nochmal zu niedrigen Preisen an Münzen und Barren zu kommen!

[ThaiGuru]

[ThaiGuru]

Da wird heute wohl mit allen möglichen Mitteln versucht werden zu verhindern, dass Gold auf über 416.70 Dollar pro Unze steigt, und dort auch schliesst.

Ob sie es schaffen? Wir werden es ja erleben.

[ThaiGuru]

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"Mit allen möglichen Mitteln zu verhindern"

Dazu passt doch diese Meldung der Niederländischen Zentralbank von heute hervorragend.

Gruss

ThaiGuru



http://www.busrep.co.za/index.php?fArticleId=351395&fSection…

Netherlands plans to sell $866m of gold

February 18, 2004

By Bloomberg

London - The Dutch central bank planned to sell 65 metric tons of gold, worth $866 million, after a 15-nation accord on such sales expires in September, spokesperson Tobias Oudejans said yesterday. The agreement limited participants` total sales to 2 000 tons over five years. The Dutch central bank wanted to shed 300 tons of gold when it signed the accord and had sold only 235 tons so far.

"We are seeking to sell the remainder, regardless of whether…

[Wasserzeichen]

@Thai

Mal sehen.....hier wird jedenfalls mit harten Bandagen dagegengeballert.Scheiss Kartell!
Hoffentlich steigt gegen Handelsende der Kaufdruck wieder ordentlich an,sonst gibt`s wieder so eine Pseudolawine,die dann in tagelanger Kleinarbeit wieder nach oben gehandelt wird....schon ärgerlich,ohne die gezielten shortattacken wären
wir längst bei450-480 und silber 7,50-9Taler...

[ThaiGuru]

@Wasserzeichen

Du sagst "Scheiss Kartell"

Habe dieser Aussage rein gar nichts entgegenzusetzen.

Die Meldung über den bevorstehenden Goldverkauf von 65 Tonnen Gold der Holländer alleine, hätte den Goldpreis mit Sicherheit nicht mehr als 5 Dollar notieren lassen.

Doch das Gold Caball benutzt solche Meldungen immer als Vorwand, um durch massive Papier Gold Verkäufe die Gold Preise runter zu prügeln.

Das dann gerade heute wieder sogenannte "Interventionen am Devisenmarkt" stattfinden die den Dollar wieder "erstarken" lassen sehe ich auch nicht als Zufall.

Alles zusammen ergibt den vom Gold Cabal gewünschten Effekt,…

Trotzdem sollten wir uns eigentlich beim Gold Cabal bedanken, dass uns ermöglicht weiterhin zu günstigen Konditionen Gold, und auch Silber kaufen zu können. Ohne das Gold Cabal würde Gold, und auch Silber, wie Du richtig feststellst, bereits bedeutend mehr kosten.

Kommt aber mit Sicherheit noch!

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

Seabridge Gold Plans 10,000 Metre Drill Program in 2004 to Expand Courageous Lake Resource


http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/040217/175522_1.html

[ThaiGuru]

Lake Shore Gold Corp.: More Drilling Results from the Timmins Gold Project, Summary of 2003 Drilling


http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/040217/175337_1.html

[ThaiGuru]

Growing interest in mining exploration

Potential investors attracted by tax incentives

By BAEAU TAI

THE number of overseas companies interested in conducting mineral exploration in Papua New Guinea is rising dramatically following tax incentives introduced by the Government.

Mining Secretary Kuma Aua said yesterday his department has received five applications for exploration activities in 2002, 15 last year and 11 for January.


http://www.thenational.com.pg/0218/business1.htm

[ThaiGuru]

Glamis Gold Reports Improved Earnings for the Fourth Quarter and 2003


http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/040217/175437_1.html

[ThaiGuru]

UPDATE - Strong gold fires Australia`s Gwalia H1 profit


http://biz.yahoo.com/rm/040217/minerals_australia_gwalia_2.h…

[superman6]

Auf Gold ist weiter verlaß.

Nur nicht abschütteln lassen.

Wenn die 416 bis 417 fallen, dann geht es
steil bergauf.


Ein Schelm der hier nicht was wittert.



Nur 0,76 % gefallen bei Riesenumsätzen.

ISIN GB0031630527
Bezeichnung CAMBRIAN MIN ORD 20P
Börse London Domestic Trades
Datum/Zeit 18.02.04/17:30:47
Letzter Kurs 65,50
Volumen/Trade 5.000
Volumen/Tag 2.254.111
Geld Brief
Kurs 64,00 67,00

[ThaiGuru]

Newmont aims to sell once rich Australia gold mine


http://biz.yahoo.com/rm/040217/minerals_australia_newmont_1.…

[ThaiGuru]

Reuters
Gold hedging falls 3.4 mln oz in Q4 `03 -Mitsui


http://biz.yahoo.com/rm/040217/markets_gold_hedging_1.html

[ThaiGuru]

Russell On the Market & Gold

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_04/russell021904.html

[ThaiGuru]

Pan American silver reports 11% production increase in 2003


http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/040217/va016_1.html

[ThaiGuru]

Minera Andes Acquires New Gold/Silver Prospects in Santa Cruz Province, Argentina

SPOKANE, Wash., Feb. 17, 2004 (PRIMEZONE) -- Minera Andes Inc. (TSX Venture Exchange:MAI) (OTCBB:MNEAF) has acquired several new epithermal gold/silver prospects in southern Argentina through an active, generative exploration program. Santa Cruz province, location of the new properties, is emerging as an under-explored, highly prospective area for gold and silver and is host to several mines and discoveries.

http://www.primezone.com/pages/news_releases.mhtml?d=52718

[ThaiGuru]

Pinnacle Mines acquires Chinese gold property for $2.25M Cdn

01:47 PM EST Feb 18


http://www.cbc.ca/cp/business/040217/b021794.html

[ThaiGuru]

CAPE TOWN (Mineweb.com) – South Africa’s gold mining industry faces another upheaval this year after the government said today it was mulling the revamp the sector’s unique ‘gold mining tax formula’.

http://trinity.mips1.net/mggold.nsf/Current/42256E2B005E0A2E…

[ThaiGuru]

February 18, 2004

Goldminco Considering ASX Listing As Local Investors Will Appreciate Potential And Nearology Of Its Projects On Lachlan Fold Belt.

http://www.minesite.com/archives/features_archive/2004/feb-2…

[Wasserzeichen]

@Thai
#8520

So isses!Hoffentlich wird der Kaufdruck am physischen Markt noch so gross,das den cabals der Hintern wegbrennt!

(Ich bestell morgen bei meiner Hausbank mal 100 kg Silberbarren,wetten die hab ich in 4 Wochen noch nicht? )

[ThaiGuru]

Goldcorp Inc.: 4th Quarter And Year-End Results

http://www2.ccnmatthews.com/scripts/ccn-release.pl?/current/…

[ThaiGuru]

February 18, 2004 13:28

Cambior Returns to Profitability

LONGUEUIL, Quebec, Feb 18, 2004 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Cambior Inc. (AMEX: CBJ) (TSX: CBJ):

All amounts are expressed in US dollars, unless otherwise indicated.

Cambior is pleased to report profits of $4.4 million in the fourth quarter of 2003 and $0.6 million for the year.

FOURTH QUARTER HIGHLIGHTS

- Gold production of 143,100 ounces
- Revenues of $59.…

http://www.newsalert.com/bin/story?StoryId=CqdlXubKbmdq5yJKY…

[ThaiGuru]

@Imoen

Wier einmal mehr voll ins Fettnäpfchen getreten wa!

Gruss

ThaiGuru



Tournigan Gold Hits Bonanza Grades While Drilling At The Curraghinalt Gold Project In Northern Ireland.


February 19, 2004

An interesting company, Tournigan Gold, and high time it obtained a secondary listing in London. At present it is listed on Toronto’s Venture Exchange as well as having a cheapo on Frankfurt, but its assets are in Ireland and the Slovak Republic. In fact not many UK investors had heard of it at all until it did a deal with another Canadian listed company, Strongbow Resources, at the end of 2002 to acquire up to a 75 per cent interest in the Curraghinalt and Tyrone gold projects in County Tyrone, Northern Ireland. Curraghinalt and Tyrone cover 346 sq kms and a fair amount of work has been done on them by past operators including geochemical and geophysical studies, 2,800 metres of trenching, 17,800 metres of drilling and 700 metres of underground development.

A series of high-grade quartz veins had been discovered at Curraghinalt , some of which had been traced up to 2 kilometres along strike. Drilling and underground development had resulted in the definition of a resource of 470,000 tonnes at an average grade of 17.3 g/t containing approximately 250,000 ounces of gold. Tournigan clearly liked what it saw when exploring last year and earlier this month it agreed to change the deal and buy the projects outright from Strongbow for 5 million shares with another 5 million to come when mine construction is approved. This is a sensible move as it provides Tournigan’s management with greater flexibility and speed of decision making and it confirms that the company intends to make a mine of it.

Following some encouraging drilling results last year the Curraghinalt development/production programme now consists of resource in-fill drilling and associated data collection that will comprise a feasibility study leading to permitting and a production decision in 2004. The latest drilling results will do nothing to slow down the programme and they have attracted a lot of attention from investors used to rather more pedestrian grades down the road where Conroy Gold & Diamonds is exploring. . One drill hole, for instance, graded 68.07 g/t gold over 3.43 metres and this included 183.23 g/t over 1.26 metres. Another returned 42.66 g/t over 4.06 metres with a similar bonanza section included and a third assayed 57.16 g/t over 1.92 metres in an adjacent ore shoot.

Grades like this, albeit in shoots, should attract attention all over the world. It is somewhat ironic that there was a recent TV programme in the UK which tended to denigrate the idea of gold in commercial quantities in Ireland despite the history of production in pre-Roman times. In fact there is a book called the Life and Death of a Druid Prince which describes the transport of gold from Ireland across to the east coast of England and onwards to Europe which was organized by the druids in Celtic times and which attracted the Romans to Britain. The TV crew even entered the adit at Curraghinalt and still missed the story that they were standing underneath one of the richest primary sources of gold in Ireland.

This adit and the other underground workings effectively accelerate development of a mine by a full year as all that needs to be done from the mining point of view is put in a raise to the nearest vein to the adit and start producing. Now the company has to produce a measured resource which will be upgraded to a mineable reserve as part of the final feasibility. Metallurgical testwork also has to be carried out, as do environmental checks, and planning permission has to be obtained from the Northern Ireland authorities. Damien Reynolds confirms that relations with them have been very good and he played a shrewd political card by inviting David Montgomery onto the board. He was chief executive of the Mirror Group of newspapers and is now chairman of Team Northern Ireland which gives him contacts in all the right places.

Continuing exploration should boost resources considerably as Tournigan now understands the positioning of these ore shoots on the vein system which is open to the north and west and has big potential at depth. Some idea of the potential can be gleaned from the fact that this vein system extends for at least 8 kilometres.

Meanwhile exploration is also going well at the 100 per cent owned Kremnica gold deposit in the Slovak Republic which was acquired in July last year. The Sturec zone alone now has an indicated resource of 384,231 ozs gold and 2.8 million ozs silver and an inferred resource of 540,733 ozs gold and 4.3 ozs silver all at a cut-off grade of 1 g/t and this is a 10 per cent improvement in a matter of months. Add the two projects together and Tournigan will be seen to have drill inferred resources of 1.2 million ounces of gold. This starts to get serious, and even more so as a scoping study will soon be carried out in Slovakia. Damien Reynolds will be presenting at our next Minesite Mining Forum, so it should be standing room only. By that time he may have more to say about a London listing.



http://www.minesite.com/archives/news_archive/2004/feb-2004/…

[ThaiGuru]

February 18, 2004 13:09

Anooraq and Anglo Platinum Begin Major Drilling Program on Drenthe Deposit


http://www.newsalert.com/bin/story?StoryId=CqdlXubKbmdq5yJKY…

[ThaiGuru]

Wednesday, Feb 18, 2004

High River Gold and Jilbey Gold join in Burkina Faso exploration


http://www.mytelus.com/news/article.do?pageID=cp_business_ho…

[ThaiGuru]

Standard & Poors Expects Stable Outlook for North American Metals & Mining Sector

http://www2.standardandpoors.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?pag…

[jeffery2]

Wer nicht bedingunslos die Goldhymne singt, der bekommt auf den Deckel. Vom Meister persönlich!!
J2
Wieder so ein "Kurzposting" von mir.
Spar Dir bitte diesmal Deine Boardmail, Du hast Wichtigeres zu tun!!!!!!!!

[ThaiGuru]

Source: Avalon Gold Corporation

Avalon Gold Acquires Battle Mountain Property

http://www.primezone.com/pub/headlines.mhtml?d=52818

[ThaiGuru]

Gold and Jewellery Group report sales of AED 400,000,000 during DSF 2004

The Gold and Jewellery Group, Dubai, has reported gold and jewellery sales of AED400 million during this year`s month-long Dubai Shopping Festival, with the award winning World Family Commemorative Gold Coin Promotion cited as the main reason for this impressive 22 per cent increase in festival sales.


http://www.ameinfo.com/news/Detailed/35041.html

[ThaiGuru]

February 18, 2004 10:01

Monarch Gold Exploration Announces New Name Acquires New Gold Property


http://www.newsalert.com/bin/story?StoryId=CqdlXubKbmdq5yJKW…

[ThaiGuru]

Breaking news

Gold eases back, but copper gains

http://www.iii.co.uk/shares/?type=news&articleid=4873955&act…

[ThaiGuru]

@Jeffery2

Habe Dich zwar nicht speziell erwähnt in meinem Posting, aber da Du mich nun daran erinnerst warum auch nicht.

Du hast doch selbst auch immer vor Tournigan Gold gewarnt, und von Totalverlust geredet. Du solltes Dich eigentlich nicht zu weit aus dem Fenster wagen, Du "Board Adliger"

Hast wohl noch Freude daran, dass der Hui eins auf`s Dach gekriegt hat? Oder war der Grund ein anderer?

Gruss an den Imoen Lakai

ThaiGuru

[Magor]

# 8510
Protonen bringt mich da auf eine Frage:
Weiß wer, ob irgendwo Wertungen existieren über die prophetischen Fähigkeiten der doch zum Teil schon seit Jahren Anlageempfehlungen über Anlageempfehlungen herausgebenden Autoren?
Wer bei den Auf- und Ab´s in der Vergangenheit mehr richtig, wer mehr falsch gelegen hatte.
Ihre Aussagen für die zukünftige Entwicklung machen die nämlich alle so selbstsicher, ob der Autor Ted Butler, Jason Hommel, John Hathaway, Antal Fekete, Clif Droke … und wie auch immer heißt.
Wäre doch interessant so was, auch um einschätzen zu können, ob auf wen hören, wenn er Gefahr oder Gelegenheit wittert und diese Info verbreitet.

Grüße
Magor

[ThaiGuru]

PROFILE RESOURCES INC

FEBRUARY 18, 2004 - 12:10 ET

Profile Resources Signs Letter of Agreement for Purchase
of Mining Claims


http://www2.ccnmatthews.com/scripts/ccn-release.pl?/current/…

[ThaiGuru]

CANARC RESOURCE CORP.

FEBRUARY 18, 2004 - 15:00 ET

Canarc and Grassalco Complete the Incorporation of
Benzdorp Gold N.V., Canarc Commences Phase 2 Drilling
Program on the Benzdorp Property, Suriname


http://www2.ccnmatthews.com/scripts/ccn-release.pl?/current/…

[ThaiGuru]

Copper rally`s good as gold for top producer Chile
Reuters, 02.18.04, 2:02 PM ET


http://www.forbes.com/markets/newswire/2004/02/18/rtr1266030…

[ThaiGuru]

COMEX silver retreats from 6-year high, mimics copper

Wednesday February 18, 2:54 PM EST

NEW YORK, Feb 18 (Reuters) - Silver closed lower on Wednesday after rising above $6.80 for the first time in six years on the back of a weak dollar and strong economic growth, while gold stayed underwater for most of the session.

Gold stalled well below the 15-year high it hit in January, even as the euro set a new record against the troubled dollar overnight. But silver has seen out-sized moves this year, benefiting doubly from runaway rallies in base metals.

weiter...

http://money.iwon.com/jsp/nw/nwdt_rt_top.jsp?cat=TOPBIZ&src=…

[ThaiGuru]

Gold eyes renewed strength

http://trinity.mips1.net/mggold.nsf/Current/42256E2B005E0A2E…

[ThaiGuru]

Signs Of A Hurricane *** Will we ever see gold at $400 again?

By: Bill Bonner, Dan Denning & Marc Faber, The Daily Reckoning

http://news.goldseek.com/DailyReckoning/1077122665.php

[ThaiGuru]

[/b][/u]




The gold $20 Saint-Gaudens America`s most beautiful coin]



http://www.goldline.com/NM/Bullion.htm

[ThaiGuru]

Saubere Arbeit!

[ThaiGuru]

Das gleichzeitig die Amerikaner wieder mehr Yen für den Dollar kriegen, kann wohl einen Gold Bug auch nicht mehr überraschen!

[ulfur]

Also von einer Entkopplung von Dollar und Goldpreis, wie sie Mahendra angekündigt hat, ist bis jetzt noch nichts zu sehen.

Der Dollar geht um 2,5 Cent vom Tageshöchststand zurück - das ist nicht wenig.

[Magor]

# 8557

was heißt "Saubere Arbeit" Thai ???

Der erste der Stehaufmännchen kütt schon wieder : - ))



Die können versuchen zu drücken, allerdings nicht den Leuten die Erkenntnis nehmen, daß das subventionierte
KAUFCHANCEN sind!

[ThaiGuru]

@ulfur

Nun folgt die nächste Runde!

Alle Gold Handelsplätze sind geschlossen!

Im Computer Direct Access Handel bei dem nur eine Hand voll Auserwählte, fast ungestört, falls man von einigen Hedgefonds einmal absieht, mit Papier Gold "handelt".

Gold wird weiter gefällt!



Trotzdem, auch wenn das Gold Cabal heute wieder einmal mehr …

Die Inder, Chinesen, Russen, Araber etc. werden sich freuen, morgen wieder günstigeres echtes Gold kaufen zu können.

Einige von uns vielleicht auch?

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

Sorry Magor ist wieder so ein ellenlanges Posting!

Find es aber hoch interessant, nicht zulezt auch desshalb weil es bei MSN Money Central veröffentlicht wurde.

Gruss

ThaiGuru



http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P72747.asp

Contrarian Chronicles

The 7 stages of a dollar crisis



`Experts` simplistically tout a weak dollar as good news. No…

By Bill Fleckenstein

Along the way to a full-blown crisis, the steps leading up to it may either pass unnoticed or prompt insufficient concern. That is the story of the dollar. Its decline continues to strike many folks as good news. It is only a matter of time before that perception changes. The inevitable crisis will inflict damage, but those who see where we are headed can protect themselves beforehand. To this end, I`ll explain where I believe we are in that process.

G7`s `lingo limbo:` How low can the dollar go?

Recently, the Group of Seven finance ministers met in Boca Raton, Fla., to hammer out a much-parsed currencies communiqué. Why folks take this exercise in semantics seriously beats me. The fact is, even the seven ministers, who are capable of speaking five languages, can`t tell you what the heck they mean. Of course, one reason they can`t tell you is that their differing agendas make it hard to pretend like they`re all on the same page.

That said, the foreign ministers probably agree on one point: The dollar is becoming a problem, which is why the gist of their communiqué stated that too much volatility (read: dollar weakness) is not a good thing.

What we are witnessing is the unfolding of a dollar crisis. Though its external value seems to be a nebulous concept for many folks, as the dollar`s ongoing decline builds to a crisis, it will have a significant impact on the workings of financial markets -- and affect everyone`s financial well-being. (For review, please see my past columns:

"The dollar`s dramatic decline comes out of your wallet”; "T…

7 small steps to crisis
Here, then, is my outline of a 7-step process of creating a full-blown crisis.

Step 1. Nobody notices or pays attention that the dollar is …

Pssst, Economist: It`s Al (Greenspan), not Asia
To buttress my claim that we are segueing from the initial stages where no one cares to the next and dicier stages, I`d like to share a few quotes from "Let the dollar drop," the lead editorial in last week`s issue of The Economist. Though the writer first takes a why-worry attitude toward the decline, he seems to recognize that all this central-bank dithering can lead to real trouble. So, confusion of conclusions notwithstanding, it`s worthwhile spending a minute on the article.

Starting with the why-worry theme, the writer argues the nonsensical case that the dollar has, in fact, been too strong. (If that isn`t an example of drinking `em pretty, I don`t know what is.) A weaker dollar, he says, "will help to reduce America`s vast current-account deficit."

Well, I`ve got news for him. The dollar`s slide of nearly 30…

[ThaiGuru]

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/markets/currencies.html

Dollar Rises on Speculation BOJ Sells Yen; Chirac Suggests Curb on Euro

Feb. 18 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar rose against 15 major currencies on speculation the Bank of Japan will sell yen to protect an economic rebound and after French President Jacques Chirac suggested the euro shouldn`t be allowed to rise too fast.

Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki said Japan will counter `…

Against the yen, the dollar rose to 106.88 at 4:07 p.m. in New York from 105.66 late yesterday. It reached 107.14 yen for the biggest one-day gain since March 19, 2003. The dollar rose to $1.2675 per euro from $1.2842, after the euro reached a record $1.2930 earlier in European trade. The dollar also rebounded against the British pound and Australian dollar.

Japan sold yen and bought dollars in Asian trading today, said traders who deal with the central bank. The BOJ also may have sold in New York trading, said Enrico Caruso, chief currency trader at hedge fund Tempest Asset Management in Irvine, California.

``The BOJ continues to remain in there stifling the yen`s ap… said David Durrant, chief currency strategist at Bank Julius Baer & Co. in New York.

Japanese Expansion

Japan`s economy grew at a 7 percent annual rate in the three months ended Dec. 31, the Cabinet Office said, compared with a 4.7 percent median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey and 4 percent expansion for the U.S. last quarter.

The central bank sold a record 7.15 trillion yen ($67.7 bill…

Chirac`s remarks, made at the opening of a summit meeting in Berlin with German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder and British Prime Minister Tony Blair, helped spur a rally in the dollar.

The euro earlier rose to a record after European Central Bank council member Guy Quaden said policy makers have no ``pain threshold`` at which they may try to stem the currency`s advance.

`Sizeable Move`

``After such a sizeable move, people are reluctant to enter …

Since the start of 2002, the euro has risen 44 percent against the dollar.

Gold prices fell. Contracts for gold for immediate delivery …

Hans-Werner Sinn, head of the Ifo economic institute in Munich, said the euro appreciation threatens economic growth in Europe. ``We have to be vigilant not to let the euro rise above $1.30,`` Sinn told reporters at a press conference. ``According to our company surveys, this is a kind of a pain threshold.``

The euro region`s economic growth slowed in the fourth quarter as the 12-nation common currency`s gains hurt exports. Volkswagen AG said today fourth-quarter profit fell 60 percent as the euro`s advance eroded revenue.

Dollar`s Long Descent

Today`s gains aside, demand for the dollar has waned in the last year as the U.S. Federal Reserve has kept its target rate at 1 percent, a four-decade low.

Trichet on Monday said the ECB`s benchmark rate of 2 percent, twice the Fed`s target, is ``historically low.`` Australia`s central bank deputy chief said the country`s benchmark rate ought to be somewhere between 5 percent and 6.26 percent.

The U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the dollar`s value against a basket of six currencies, is 86.03 cents. Earlier today it fell to 84.56 cents, close to the lowest since November 1995. The basket comprises the euro, yen, pound, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar and Swedish krona, representing key trading partners of the U.S.

To contact the reporter on this story: Richard Blackden in London on [e-mail].

To contact the editor of this story: Daniel Moss at
7719 or [e-mail]

Last Updated: February 18, 2004 16:12 EST

[ThaiGuru]

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1900

From: GATAComm@a...
Date: Wed Feb 18, 2004 3:55 pm
Subject: Targeting the Gold Cabal with Silver Bullets: A new study by Reg Howe

10:45a ET Wednesday, February 18, 2004

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

the Gold Cabal with Silver Bullets." Howe`s
study includes charts by Michael Bolser and Don
Lindley and may be the first comprehensive
study of the connection between the gold and
silver markets. You can find it here:" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">In a new study, GATA consultant Reginald H.
Howe, proprietor…

http://www.goldensextant.com/SilverCommentary.html#anchor349…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

----------------------------------------------------

To subscribe to GATA`s dispatches, send an e-mail to:

[e-mail]

To unsubscribe, send an e-mail to:

[e-mail]

----------------------------------------------------

RECOMMENDED INTERNET SITES
FOR DAILY MONITORING OF GOLD
AND PRECIOUS METALS
NEWS AND ANALYSIS

Free sites:

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http://www.mineweb.com/

http://www.gold-eagle.com/

http://www.kitco.com/

http://www.usagold.com/

http://www.GoldSeek.com/

http://www.capitalupdates.com/

http://www.goldenbar.com/

http://www.silver-investor.com

http://www.thebulliondesk.com/

http://www.sharelynx.net

http://www.mininglife.com/

http://www.financialsense.com

http://www.goldensextant.com

http://www.goldismoney.info/index.html

http://www.howestreet.com

http://www.depression2.tv

http://www.moneyfiles.org/

http://www.howestreet.com

http://www.minersmanual.com/minernews.html

http://www.a1-guide-to-gold-investments.com/euro-vs-dollar.h…

http://www.goldcolony.com

http://www.mineralstox.com


Subscription site:

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/

http://www.hsletter.com


Eagle Ranch discussion site:

http://os2eagle.net/checksum.htm


Ted Butler silver commentary archive:

http://www.investmentrarities.com

[ThaiGuru]

[ThaiGuru]

[ThaiGuru]

TSX Venture Exchange: Halt, Viking Gold Exploration Inc.

VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA



http://www2.ccnmatthews.com/scripts/ccn-release.pl?/current/…

[ThaiGuru]

AntOro Acquires a Mining Property in Quebec

http://www2.ccnmatthews.com/scripts/ccn-release.pl?/current/…

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.kimberresources.com/

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

February 18 - Gold $411.60 down $4.10 - Silver $6.67 down 8 cents

Gold Cartel Comrades Pounce on Gold/Silver Right On Cue

"You can discover what your enemy fears most by observing th… --Eric Hoffer

Gold and silver traded like normal free markets do for only a few hours last night when The Gold Cartel proclaimed, "no mas." Silver jumped ten cents after its breakout in overseas trading and gold popped $1. However, as we came in to the Comex trading period, it became clear the cabal forces were flexing their muscles. Obviously they don’t want gold above $416, regardless of what the dollar is doing.

The dollar gained a lot of ground late in the day and closed at 86.02, up .90, while the euro was trashed, finishing at 126.64, down 1.64. Still, gold continues to break its relationship to the dollar due to the price rigging by the criminals operating out of New York and Washington. Over a month ago with the dollar at 85.30, gold was at $430. What does the mainstream gold world need to understand there are dark anti-free market forces at work which are holding down the price of gold in an effort to manipulate investor thinking? A soaring gold price doesn’t fit in with a rising stock and bond markets. Therefore, it must be held in check.

For the second time in a week, we saw blatant intervention in the dollar and precious metals markets. The dollar fell to 84.77 on disappointing housing news this morning when the Fed or ECB showed up to prevent the dollar from falling out of bed. The Japanese openly admit to their intervention as they are going all out to prevent the yen from staying below 106. It closed today at 106.83.

Meanwhile, there is almost no volatility in the US bond and stock markets, regardless of the news. Both are near their highs. All is well. Boy, how times have changed. Think of yesteryear when all America jeered the Communists. In creeping fashion, the enemy has become us. Our financial markets are managed and we have no free financial press. Lenoid Brezhnev and Nikita Kruschev, would be proud of the new America. When the Orwellians in the Bush Administration don’t like a number like the PPI, they cancel the report.

What has happened to our country? Corporate fascism rules the day. Americans don’t know what is going on, or don’t care, as long as the stock market goes up. One day this misguided experiment is going to end very badly. Stock market losses will be extraordinary and many Americans will lose their hard earned 401K savings. Only then will they wake up as the real story is told. By then, it will be too late.

Three weeks ago, The Gold Cartel bombed gold after it had rallied back to $416. Déjà vu all over again. They capped gold with their $6 rule yesterday, waiting for today’s currency intervention to smash it once more. Pretty tiresome. The hope to break the boondoggle is silver. The bad guys won’t go quietly into the night. They must be forced to capitulate, which is what CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH has been all about.

Silver bounced back nicely off of a $6.59 low. We need enough of us all over the world take delivery of the March silver contract and deplete what supply the criminals have left.

Gut’s Ball Time, that is what has to happen. If my information is correct, and I am sure it is, we will get our squeeze, if not in March, then by May. Meanwhile, we must keep the pressure on with our letter writing campaign.

The gold open interest fell 1025 contracts to 241,888. However, the silver open interest made a new high at 119,070, up 2013 contracts. In less than two weeks we will begin to find out if significant investors are securing silver supply via the March Comex contract. If so, there will be fireworks. Grand ones!

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

The John Brimelow Report

Capping resolute; SA: the explanation

Wednesday, February 18, 2004

Bombay banks and the Bullion Exchange were closed today. Based on the cash price reported from Ahmedabad by the National Multi-Commodity Exchange of India, the closing premium was only $1.58 with world gold at $416: distinctly below legal import point.

Gold merely held its admittedly comparatively robust gains during the early Asian day. TOCOM was only mildly interested: volume fell 9% to the equivalent of 35,087 Comex lots, the active contract was up 1 yen and open interest edged up again by the equivalent of 461 Comex lots. While conventional wisdom anticipates a sharp rise in the yen, local speculators will be disinclined to get involved in gold, or indeed any internationally-traded commodity. Bargain-hunting physical buyers may see things differently. (NY yesterday traded 38,511 lots: open interest fell 1,025.)

Despite the presumptions created by the softness of the dollar, Trade commentators are keenly aware of the dogged nature of the selling which prevented gold from fully reflecting the currency adjustments of the past several days. ScotiaMocatta says of yesterday:


"..Bank selling helped forestall a breakthough."" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"Funds were keen buyers early in the day taking gold to the …

In Refco Research’s words.

"Gold made an early run of the $415 resistance level at the …

Is Thebulliondesk.com’s version. Nonetheless, the powerful reversal gold has staged, joined with the abruptly degraded outlook for the dollar has impressed: normally unswervingly bearish Sogen Commodities has the integrity to acknowledge this

"nothing is likely to prevent the EUR/USD testing 1.2930 in …

(JB emphasis).

No doubt quite unconnected with this shift in sentiment, the Dutch appeared on the Bears’ news service, Bloomberg, this morning to proclaim their determination to continue their diversification- reduction program by selling a further 65 tonnes of gold. The interesting thing about this announcement is the admission that their 300 tonne sale target will not be reached during the current Washington Accord, seemingly confirming that some of the announced sales were "unplanned" when the Accord was established. In other words sales disguised as derivative transactions were unexpectedly surfaced by the recent action of gold. The recent Norwegian "sale", which turned out to be the formal, notional disposal of metal already shipped out under lending arrangements is a case in point. The more of these things come to the surface, the less plausible confidence in the remaining Central Bank claims will become.

In the mean time, there is considerable overhead resistance overhead.

The South African authorities have chosen this moment to torment an industry pressured by a capped gold price, strangled by an excessively strong rand, and bruised by the "black empowerment" shakedown, by threatening uncertainty and change over the mining tax regime. With accessibility to global exploration opportunity never greater, few mining entrepreneurs are likely to be attracted by the attitude of the SA Finance Minister:

"These people take what is a collective patrimony...they tak…

Those wondering why such things happen will find the answer at

http://www.vdare.com/misc/rushton_iq.htm

JB

[ThaiGuru]

[ludopata27]

@Thai Guru
nochmals vielen dank für deine unermüdliche arbeit. ohne all dein reinstellen von z.b. "brimelow reports" wäre auch ich schon das eine oder andere mal gefahr gelaufen, vom glauben abzufallen. so aber besteht diesbezüglich weniger gefahr denn je....denn besser könnte es fast nicht aussehen...
wie gesagt danke, und komm bitte nicht wieder auf den gedanken, z.b. bei pog 430 zu sagen:"bis 500 hört ihr nichts von mir, zu viele neider, kritiker, unwissende"
okay?
danke
ludopata

[superman6]

Endlich kommt Bewegung in Investika Ltd.


Code Last % Change Bid Offer Open High Low Vol
IVK 0.030 7.14% 0.029 0.030 0.029 0.031 0.029 3,689,206


Volumen von fast 3,7 Mio. Stück bisher.

Geht es endlich los??

[ThaiGuru]

Given the interconnections between the monetary metals, Mike Bolser has regularly included with the Gold Market Regression Charts a chart of monthly average daily silver trading volume at the London Bullion Market Association, the metal`s principal physical market. Just updated to include January 2004, the most recent version of this chart appears below.

[ThaiGuru]

As the following chart shows, gold and silver prices tend to move in generally the same direction, but in recent months the rate of acceleration in silver prices has been much greater than in gold.

[ThaiGuru]

What is more, these sharply rising silver prices have been accompanied by a steep increase in volatility.

[ThaiGuru]

Silver`s recent outperformance of gold is also reflected in the gold/silver ratio, which has moved from its most recent highs over 80 to near 60. Still, the ratio is far from its mean over the past two centuries of a little over 30, not to mention the historic norm of 15 to 16 associated with the era of bimetallism. See F. Sanders, The Gold/Silver Ratio Strategy & the Case for Silver, The Moneychanger (March 5, 2003).

[ThaiGuru]

The following chart, which Mike prepared from data published by the U.S. Geological Survey, shows annual world silver production since 1970.

[ThaiGuru]

Thus, while scrap may have filled much of the physical deficit in 2002, it cannot have made more than a partial contribution to meeting the cumulative deficit since 1990. The following chart of U.S. silver inventories since 1970 clearly confirms the large role of inventory dishoarding in meeting this deficit during the past decade.

[ThaiGuru]

As the following chart indicates, rising trends in the annual average prices of not only silver but also gold were cut off in 1994.

[ThaiGuru]

The following chart by Don Lindley tracks the short positions on the COMEX from the beginning of 1993. Note that the right axis is in number of contracts, and thus must be multiplied by 5000 to arrive at ounces (e.g., 90,000 contracts x 5000 = 450 million ounces or almost 14,000 tonnes). Comparing this chart to Mike Bolser`s showing U.S. silver inventories, it is apparent that total net short positions reached historic highs just before the sharp drawdown of U.S. inventories began in 1994, and that these positions declined with inventories through 1999 and into 2000.

[ThaiGuru]

This massive short position on the COMEX does not exclude the possibility that OTC derivatives have also played a role in the suppression of silver prices, but their role cannot be documented as it can with gold. The regular reports on worldwide OTC derivatives published by the BIS do not permit the separate identification of silver derivatives even indirectly. The derivatives figures published by the OCC for U.S. commercial banks indicate total silver derivatives that in tonnes amount to but a fraction of open interest in COMEX silver futures and options, as illustrated by the following chart.

[ThaiGuru]

@ludopata27

Du machst mir Spass, wollte gerade ankündigen, dass ich mich vorübergehend vom WGold Board abmelde, und Pause bis 600.- Dollar pro Unze mache. Nach Deiner netten Ermahnung, verschiebe ich meine Absenz vom Board nun halt bis wir 600.- pro Unze erreicht haben, und komme dann 3 Wochen später bei 800.- pro Unze wieder zurück.

Freut mich, dass es Dir hier im Thread gefällt.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

Tax on mining companies is still on Manuel`s agenda

http://www.busrep.co.za/index.php?fArticleId=352421&fSection…

[ThaiGuru]

Change on revenue instead of profit still bothers mining sector

http://www.busrep.co.za/index.php?fArticleId=352470&fSection…

[ThaiGuru]

Pure Gold Minerals Inc.: Further Targets Defined Within
North James River Property


http://www.ccnmatthews.com/scripts/ccn-release.pl?/2004/02/1…

[ThaiGuru]

Gold Building Pressure, Dollar Losing...



http://news.goldseek.com/AmerGold/1077207753.php

[ThaiGuru]

Glamis Gold downgraded to "neutral"

http://www.newratings.com/analyst_news/article_385867.html

[ThaiGuru]

Gold Unchanged; Silver Off

Published on 2/19/2004

Handy & Harman gold $414.50 unchanged; fabricated $447.66 unchanged. Handy & Harman silver $6.730 off $0.040; fabricated $7.807 off $0.046.


http://www.theday.com/eng/web/newstand/re.aspx?reIDx=E91E971…

[ThaiGuru]

Firms urged to join rush for Iraqi `gold`


http://www.financialdirector.co.uk/News/1136281

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/temple/temple021904.html

Market Complacency May Soon Be Tested

Chris Temple
The National Investor
Posted February 19, 2004

The rather helter-skelter behavior of the markets today is a strong indication that investors have become far too complacent in recent months. Pretty much everyone has come to expect a gradual-nay, monotonous-decline in the U.S. dollar. Many have bet on such a trend, and quite profitably so, including us. As I wrote at length in February`s issue, it`s a trend that is likely to continue generally for some time to come, particularly with Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan being abetted by Japan as he attempts to "export" monetary inflation to the whole world. Thus, currency traders have come to expect that the ability to generate easy, profitable "dollar contrary" trades has virtually become a new Law of Nature.

As I also wrote in this month`s issue, Wall Street stock traders have become complacent as well. Bullishness is near record levels. Volatility and the put/call ratio have been near their lowest levels of the last few years. Stocks` slow, steady grind higher in recent months also seems to be something that everyone has become quite comfortable with. Maybe too comfortable.

Aided by the breathtaking intervention of late by Japan, the U.S. Treasury market has also become boring in its predictability. Sure, we all know that long-term interest rates (the 10-year Treasury Note, for instance, at a smidgen above 4%) have absolutely no business being this low, what with soaring commodity prices, record U.S. budget and trade deficits, a declining dollar and all the rest. Yet they are; and abetted by Japan (which in January ALONE pumped some $70 billion into supporting Treasuries and keeping the yen`s rise in check) and Greenspan`s dovish comments in front of Congress last week, the picture has emerged that interest rates across the board will stay low for quite some time to come.

This is all quite a neat little package; especially if you`re Greenspan, and have no choice but to try to keep the status quo in tact. He needs to inflate like there`s no tomorrow. We can argue that if he fails, there may not be one. Faced with such a prospect, I presently have little doubt that, in the end, Greenspan will succeed for a time in keeping Asia on board in supporting Treasuries (and, by extension, America`s ultimately suicidal spending habits.) Further, though they`ll bellyache about it, it`s only a matter of time before Europe relents and joins the Fed in this new, U.S.-led competitive devaluation of the world`s major currencies.

Investors must keep in mind, though, that even such Herculean efforts as these by the world`s most powerful figures are only postponing the inevitable consequences of (primarily) government and the private sector being too deeply in debt. Trying to cover up the glaring imbalances that exist in economies and markets may indeed work for a while, if you can get everyone to sing from the same song sheet. Such a thing is fraught with risk, however. Markets whose participants are all pretty much on "the same side of the boat" can shift with dizzying speed if people begin to smell trouble. Those caught unprepared could at the same time see their portfolios-comprised of what have been "sure things" for months now-suddenly shrivel.

Today, we got just a small taste of what could become an intermediate-term event for most markets, and change their directions. It started with the dollar, which-after reaching yet a new low versus the euro North of $1.29-suddenly spiked against it and other currencies. As CNBC`s Rick Santelli put it, the greenback suddenly went "from being shellacked to being Chiraced" this afternoon, following some jawboning by French President Jacques Chirac insinuating that Europe may finally be tired enough of a strong euro to do something to change its direction, or at least stem its advance.

Within what seemed like mere minutes, the dollar surged to a level of under $1.27 per euro. Gold predictably sold off sharply. Interestingly, so too did Treasuries; and therein lies the biggest near-term problem for the markets.

Were the dollar`s rise this afternoon to gain some speed, its rebound would soon feed on itself, as all those above-referenced traders scrambled for position on the opposite side of the boat. What it would also bring-somewhat paradoxically-would be a sharp spike higher in long-term interest rates. On the surface, that wouldn`t make sense; but that`s no less so than the way in which a falling dollar has resulted in a strong Treasury market. Simply put, bonds would sell off-and interest rates would rise-if the dollar strengthens, if for no other reason than that Japan would not be compelled to buy so darn many of those I.O.U.`s bearing John Snow`s signature. This is likely why Treasuries weakened as the day went on, as the perception correctly grew that Japan would not be as supportive of the bond market if the dollar continued to rise.

With the stock and commodities markets heavily long in response to the "Goldilocks environment" we`ve been in, the danger is that an unraveling of both Japanese support and the bond "carry trade" I wrote about in January`s issue could undermine all of this, and give the cocky "longs" some headaches. It won`t take many days like today before declining Treasury prices and rising yields prompt some traders to unwind their positions, as they fear that the Fed might finally be losing its power to keep rates so artificially low. Once we see the 10-year Note`s yield move back up toward its 4.5-4.6% peak of last year with some conviction, this selling would also begin to feed on itself. By that time, most everything that has risen in recent months will be bending more noticeably as well.

I need to stress here the word EVERYTHING. Just as gold and gold shares, for instance, have generally been carried higher by the same factors that have carried stocks higher generally so, too, will they suffer once the overall market corrects. "Gold bugs" who think that a fall on Wall Street must somehow automatically result in precious metals rising will find out the hard way that they won`t. Other commodities and commodity-related stocks will also be vulnerable for a while, though a few-chiefly, in my opinion, in the energy area-may prove fairly immune.

Greenspan and his partners have moved everything from commodity prices, to stocks to housing values this far over the last year due to the Fed chairman successfully making "cash" trash. Fewer people have been willing to sit and earn pitifully low interest rates while they`ve watched others profit in the Fed`s new/renewed bubbles. Were sudden changes like today`s in these long-standing trends of a weak dollar and low interest rates to gather momentum, cash will suddenly look awfully good for a while, though, as it`s likely that little would be immune from the long-overdue corrections in the prices of virtually all financial assets and commodities.

Particularly if the dollar`s sharp reversal and the accompanying weakness in bonds, stocks, gold and elsewhere turn out to be more than just the latest one-day wonder, I`ll shortly be issuing a between-issues alert to subscribers to lock in some of our gains in these areas. And even if today`s activity does not presage an immediate correction, we must take it, at least, as a "shot across the bow." After all, markets generally like to confound the greatest number of players possible; and there`s no denying that the kind of complacency evident almost everywhere recently is fertile ground for "Mr. Market" to throw everyone a big curve ball.

Chris Temple

February 18, 2004

Chris Temple`s latest research report on the gold sector - which includes profiles on his three currently recommended gold equities as well as on those he expects to imminently add to his list - is available as part of his "Bear Market Survival Package." It can be ordered at his web site, www.nationalinvestor.com.[/u]

[ThaiGuru]

Investec welcomes move on mining royalties
February 19, 2004



http://www.busrep.co.za/index.php?fSectionId=&fArticleId=353…

[Leon der Profi]

@8584: dann wünsche ich Dir, dass Du Deine wohlverdiente 3-wöchige Pause recht bald einlegen kannst

[ThaiGuru]

Gold eases in Europe, eyes hesitant euro gains

Reuters, 02.19.04, 6:51 AM ET

http://www.forbes.com/markets/newswire/2004/02/19/rtr1267179…

[ThaiGuru]

February 19, 2004 07:01

Apollo Gold Corporation Reports on Montana Tunnels Mine Pit Expansion Project Update


http://www.newsalert.com/bin/story?StoryId=Cqdrc0bKbmduWyJK2…

[goldmaki]

Goldcorp verdoppelt Umsatz und Gewinn
(Instock) Das Explorationsunternehmen Goldcorp (NYSE: GG) kann dank steigender Rohstoffnotierungen abermals mit einer soliden Bilanz überzeugen. Im Schlussquartal 2003 wurden den Angaben zufolge 43,3 Millionen US-Dollar oder 23 Cents je Aktie verdient. Dies bedeutet eine Steigerung von 120 Prozent zum Vergleichszeitraum des Vorjahres. Damals blieben 19,7 Millionen Dollar oder 11 Cents je Aktie in der Konzernkasse hängen. Der Umsatz verbesserte sich binnen Jahresfrist um 134 Prozent auf 110,6 Millionen Dollar. Im Geschäftsjahr 2003 kletterte der Gewinn von 68,2 Millionen Dollar ( 39 Cents je Aktie) auf 98,8 Millionen Dollar (54 Cents je Aktie). Zugleich legte der Umsatz gegenüber 2002 um 42 Prozent auf 262,6 Millionen Dollar zu. Die Goldcorp-Aktien beendeten den Handel am Vorabend in New York mit 14,65 Dollar. Mit einem Börsenwert von 2,7 Milliarden Dollar zählt der Konzern zu den mittelgroßen Gesellschaften des Rohstoffsektors. Goldcorp notiert im AMEX Gold Bugs Index, besser bekannt unter seinem Kürzel HUI-Index. Der an der American Stock Exchange (AMEX) berechnete Index umfasst vor allem große Gold- und Silberminen aus Nordamerika und Südafrika, die ihre Produktion nicht auf Termin verkaufen.

goldmaki

[bmann025]

#8538

interessant, daß die Expertentruppe der Tourni-Gang erst heute mittag auf den Artikel in 8538 gestoßen ist.

[Klosterwein]

für uns Silberbullen:

Reuters
NYMEX to increase silver and copper margins Friday
Thursday February 19, 3:30 pm ET

NEW YORK, Feb 19 (Reuters) - The New York Mercantile Exchange said Thursday that it will increase the margins on its COMEX Division silver and copper futures contracts at the close of business Friday.

The margins on each of the two contracts will be raised to $2,000 from $1,500 for clearing members and members and to $2,700 from $2,025 for customers, the exchange said in a press release.



Als sie die Margins das letzte Mal erhöht haben (erst vor wenigen Wochen), stieg Silber danach... Die Shorts und ihre Monsterposition scheinen im Endspiel zu stehen...

Grüße, Klosterwein

[ThaiGuru]

@Klosterwein

Hoffe Du hast Recht!

Beim Gold hingegen war es in der Vergangenheit gerade umgekehrt. Die Margin wurde beim Gold in der Vergangenheit eingeführt um den Preisanstieg abzuwürgen.
Dadurch waren Long-Anleger gezwungen von heute auf morgen Geld nachzuschiessen. Für die Cabal Shorts die irgend ein zusätzliches Zahlungsversprechen auf Papier abgeben, ist das kein Problem, für die nicht komerziellen Longs, die Bargeld nachschiessen müssen, hingegen meistens ein grosses finanzielles Problem, dass zu einer Liquidation der Longpositionen geführt hatte, und dadurch den Goldpreisanstieg abgewürgt hatte.

Falls Du jetzt beim Silber long gehen möchtest müsst Du mehr Geld als Sicherheit hinterlegen (Margin). Du kannst also für das Dir zur Verfügung stehende Geld weiger Future Silber Kontrakte kaufen, als vorher. Das heist also auch, Du kannst weniger Silber kaufen als vorher. Das ist negativ zu sehen.

Die neue höhere Margin gilt natürlich auch für die Silber Shorties. Da gibt es nur einen grossen Unterschied. Den Cabal Shorties bereitet eine Marginerhöhung aller Wahrscheinlichkeit nach überhaupt kein Problem, denn die liefern einfach ein neues zusätzliches Zahlungsversprechen ihrer eigenen Bank, oder allenfalls eines ihrer anderen Gold/Silber Kartell Mitglieder nach, und die Manipulation kann weiter gehen.

Was das Cabal mit Sicherheit nicht kann, ist Silber, oder auch Gold zu drucken. Darum bekämpfen sie auch Gold, und Silber, repektive würgen seit Jahren jeden Preisanstieg ab.

Jeder Gold, und/oder Silber Bug hat die Möglichkeit selbst etwas dagegen zu unternehmen. Er braucht blos nur in physisches (echtes) Gold, oder Silber zu investieren, um den Shorties das Manipulieren der Preise schwerer zu machen.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[einmalpleitereicht]

@thai


kloster hat aber mit der beobachtung recht, dass das vor ein paar wochen jeher positiv für silber war.

was in jedem fall passiert:

die preise der silber os steigen an, da für die emmis die finanzierungskosten steigen.

bei meinem schein "7,5 call juni 06" hat das immerhin fast 5 cent ausgemacht. der ist von 35 auf 40 cent gestiegen.

wer also noch silber calls kaufen will, sollte sich morgen sputen

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com


February 19 - Gold $409.10 down $2.50 - Silver $6.63 down 4 cents

Oil, Copper, Soybeans Flying / Silver Squeeze News

Accept the challenges, so you may feel the exhilaration of v…Gen. George S. Patton

GO GATA!!!

Oil, Copper, Soybeans Flying / Silver Squeeze News

Gold has gone into a disconnect with the rest of the commodity/financial market world thanks to The Gold Cartel and their price-capping operation. Crude oil closed at $36 per barrel, a new high for the move. Soybeans jumped 25 ½ cents per bushel to $8.80, a new multi-year high. Copper keeps steaming along too, finishing the day at $1.3295 per pound, up another 2.8 cents and an 8-year high. Silver is not far from its 7-year high. The dollar closed at 86.04 and is less than a point from its multi-year low close. But gold, it can’t even stay above $410 and is now 21 bucks off its high.

If gold were trading freely, we would have to say the gold price action is terrible. Yet, as we all well know, that is not the case. The United States and the rest of The Gold Cartel are sitting on the price to deflect any kind of inflation concerns. The monstrous interest rate derivatives positions at JP Morgan Chase must be protected at all costs. One of those costs is flooding the market with borrowed gold to keep the price down.

Look at the charts of these key commodities:

Crude oil
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CO/34

Soybeans
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SB/34

Copper
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CP/34

But there is no inflation!

The gold open interest rose sharply yesterday on the price break, indicating an all out assault by the cabal forces. It climbed to 247,050, up 5192 contracts. Silver liquidated a bit on its big sell-off, falling 736 contracts to 118,334. The trading in gold and silver remains at a variance. There are two different dynamics in play in each of those futures markets.

Gold was under pressure all day long and was hit by the caba…

The Philly Fed Index came out today much weaker than expected:

Feb. 19 (Bloomberg) -- A gauge of manufacturing in the Philadelphia region declined more than expected this month, a Federal Reserve report showed. The reading was still the second- highest reading since 1993.
The Fed Bank of Philadelphia`s general economic index was 31.4 in February, down from the decade high of 38.8 in January. Economists had estimated that the index would slip to 35, based on the median of 50 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey.

The regional Fed bank said fewer factories reported increases in orders, shipments and hiring than in January. February still was the ninth consecutive month the index was higher than zero, indicating expansion, and the first time since 1984 with three consecutive months above 30. The survey`s measure of the length of the work week was highest since 1968, one sign that may mean additional future hiring... –END-

Wall Street cheerleader Bloomberg fails to mention in their recap that the prices paid component leaped to 43.7% from 35.3%, a big surprise. When crude oil hit $36 per barrel, the NY Merc stopped trading due to a technical malfunction. Meanwhile, the US still can’t figure out how to report the real PPI number. The Orwellians in the Bush Administration are completely out of control:

Bush administration fudging data, top scientists warn

By OLIVER MOORE

Globe and Mail Update

UPDATED AT 6:31 PM EST Wednesday, Feb. 18, 2004

Twenty Nobel laureates are among the scores of scientists who on Wednesday accused the Bush administration of using dubious science to gain public support for its policies.

In an open letter, the Union of Concerned Scientists charges that supposedly independent advisory panels have been manipulated to suppress or minimize findings contrary to the White House`s political agenda.

Russell Train, a Republican who served as EPA administrator under both Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford, said that he never once felt any pressure from either of those presidents. But on Wednesday he told a conference call: "how times have changed."

Representatives of the group said that this manipulation has been done by appointing unqualified or biased people to the advisory panels, by disbanding some existing panels, by suppressing reports and by forgoing independent scientific advice.

"The concerns we raise here at not academic abstractions," s…

In some cases, another member of the group said, politicizing ostensibly neutral scientific advice can leave the public at great risk.


"To appoint people who have clear conflicts of interest, because of their association with the paint industry, to panels that have to make difficult judgments on the scientific basis for limiting the amount of lead that is available in the environment, you could in fact do harm to hundreds of thousands of young people."" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"One of the most egregious cases mentioned in the report was…

The substance of the letter - which was signed by 60 prominent U.S. scientists, including Nobel Prize winners Steven Weinberg and James Cronin (physics) and Eric Kandel and Harold Varmus (biology) - was denied by the White House.

"I can assure you that this is an administration that makes … Presidential spokesman Scott McClellan told Reuters.

He also said that the Bush administration had "worked on an independent peer review process to look at how science is used in regulatory decisions."

Dr. Lane said that scientists understand that politicians must make their decisions based on any number of factors, not just the science, but he warned that efforts to fudge the data have gone so far that


"I`ve become increasingly concerned, even alarmed, by the Bush administration`s actions to manipulate the government`s scientific advisory system. Even, I think, to prevent the administration or the upper-level policy-makers of the administration from hearing any advice that might run counter to its political agenda,"" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"leading policy-makers simply don`t know what they don`t kno…

he said on a conference call with Dr. Train and Dr. Gottfried.

"What you must not have is people on these panels who are un…

-END-

And the Bush Administration doesn’t manipulate the gold and silver prices either. Right! This manipulation of facts is the reason we are in Iraq and close to 600 American soldiers are dead and thousands of others are maimed for life. Whatever happened to Truth, Justice and the American Way?

[ulfur]

Der Niedergang schreitet voran, zum Glück gibt´s aber noch Spanien, Portugal, Griechenland und Italien.

ARMES DEUTSCHLAND

Willkommen im Wohlstandskeller der EU

Deutschland gehörte lange Jahrzehnte zu den reichsten Nationen Europas. Das war einmal. Nach aktuellen Schätzungen ist das Bruttoinlandsprodukt pro Kopf 2003 unter den Schnitt der EU gerutscht - zum ersten Mal.

London/Berlin - Nach Berechnungen des britischen Wirtschaftsmagazins "The Economist" lag das Pro-Kopf-BIP Deutschlands im vergangenen Jahr um 1,0 Prozent unter dem Durchschnitt aller EU-Nationen. Der Niedergang der deutschen Wirtschaftskraft sei "alarmierend", befindet das Blatt in einem Leitartikel.

Tatsächlich lag Deutschland noch Ende der achtziger Jahre beim BIP pro Kopf rund 20 Prozent über dem Schnitt der Europäischen Union. Inzwischen aber sei das Pro-Kopf-BIP nur noch in vier der 15 EU-Nationen niedriger als in Deutschland. Im Durchschnitt ärmer sind jetzt nur noch Spanien, Portugal, Italien und Griechenland. In Irland, das lange Zeit das Armenhaus Westeuropas war, liege das Pro-Kopf-BIP inzwischen 20 Prozent über dem deutschen Wert, sagte Pam Woodall, die Autorin des "Economist"-Artikels. Im Jahr 2002 habe Deutschland immerhin noch exakt im Mittelfeld der EU gelegen.

Ein Teil dieses deutschen Niederganges sei zwar auf die Effekte der Wiedervereinigung zurückzuführen, sagte sie. Wegen des relativ geringeren Wohlstandes im Osten ist der Durchschnitt des BIP in Gesamtdeutschland 1990 auf einen Schlag deutlich gesunken. Im Jahr der Wiedervereinigung habe das Pro-Kopf-BIP aber immer noch um neun Prozent über dem EU-Schnitt gelegen.

Deutschland verdeckt die Erfolge der EU

Seither sei Deutschland mit einem durchschnittlichen jährlichen BIP-Wachstum von 1,4 Prozent die Volkswirtschaft in der EU gewesen, die am langsamsten gewachsen sei. Deutschland sei sogar zu großen Teilen für das schlechte Image der EU-Wirtschaft verantwortlich, schreibt das Blatt weiter. Der Rest der EU sei gar nicht "sklerotisch", wie oft angenommen werde. In den anderen EU-Ländern sei die Wirtschaft ebenso dynamisch oder sogar dynamischer als in den USA, die als weltweiter Wachstumsmotor gelten.

Die Kapitalrendite amerikanischer Konzerne etwa sei zwar im Schnitt doppelt so hoch wie die deutscher Konkurrenten, so der "Economist", der sich hier auf eine neue Studie von Goldman Sachs beruft. In der EU außerhalb Deutschlands sei die durchschnittliche Kapitalrendite aber sogar höher als in den Vereinigten Staaten. Ein ähnliches Beispiel: In der EU außerhalb Deutschlands sei das BIP im vergangenen Jahrzehnt um 2,3 Prozent pro Jahr gewachsen - das liege ebenfalls über dem US-Schnitt.

Aus Sicht des liberalen Magazines "Economist" sind die Zahlen ein weiterer Beleg dafür, dass Deutschland seine Lohnnebenkosten senken und die Steuerlast reduzieren müsse. Auch sei eine Verschlankung des "übertrieben großzügigen Wohlfahrtsstaates" geboten. Eine Trendwende zum besseren in Deutschland sei noch nicht abzusehen - erst einmal würde sich die Lage weiter verschlechtern.

Einen schwachen Trost gibt es für Deutschland: Mit der Osterweiterung im Mai werden neue Länder in die EU aufgenommen, die statistisch gesehen noch ärmer sind. Damit rückt Deutschland in der BIP-Rangfolge wieder auf - und liegt wieder oberhalb des EU-Durchschnitts.
http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/0,1518,287130,00.html

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com


The John Brimelow Report

Turkey; A thought on Asia.

Thursday, February 19, 2004

Reuters data from India today does not seem to be fully updated following yesterday’s Bank holiday in Bombay: but some Indian cities at least were above import point this afternoon with world gold at $410.30: for instance Madras which showed a $5.17 premium.

Correspondence with a rather surly official of the Istanbul Gold Exchange appears to indicate that the Turks have decided to stop publishing weekly import data. This is a pity, as it gave a useful insight into the Middle Eastern market. (Turkey last year imported 213.6 metric tones of gold, 65.7% above 2002 despite higher prices: a good deal of this is thought to have been re-exported southeastwards.) The January import data, which they have published, shows imports of 14.65 tonnes, 36% above December and 70% above January 2003: the highest in fact since last October, when Turkish lira gold prices were similar. Imports in the past two weeks would probably been impressive. Presumably the business of supplying the Middle East is competitive: perhaps it was felt publishing weekly data disclosed too much.

As usual nowadays, TOCOM was uninformative: volume dropped 40% to only the equivalent of 21,095 Comex lots. The active contract was up 3 yen and $US gold went out 35c above the weak NY close: open interest edged up 418 Comex lots. The Shanghai Gold Exchange has returned to showing small premiums over world gold after a couple of days of modest discounts. (NY yesterday traded 43,572 contracts; open interest data as yet is not available.)

"Gold again tried higher but ran into a wall, this time aide…,

candidly notes Mitsui-Sydney of yesterday’s trading. ScotiaMocatta reports:

"Selling from overseas sources forced disappointed long liqu…

UBS sadly observes:

"on a longer term view the metal has underperformed the stre…

An observer less dependent on the grace and favor of Central Banks could have added that the reason for the large liquidation and subsequent unwillingness to rebuild on the part of "speculators and investors" was the recurrent bouts of heavy selling documented in these notes.

While waiting for the physical market to adapt to +$410 gold, the FX markets do deserve some thought. The key issue is not the insouciance of the Federal Reserve towards the dollar, or the obduracy of the ECB on the Euro, but the outbreak of rampant Mercantilism amongst the Asian Central Banks. Unfortunately, owing to their hugely enhanced significance in world trade, these countries are now in a position to put the world financial system under great stress.

Consider the news today from India that the authorities intend setting up an $8Billion fund for the purpose of sterilizing the effect of the Reserve Bank’s constant efforts to hold down the rupee, thus facilitating, amongst other distortions of trade, more "outsourcing" from the US. In this, of course, the Indians are merely following in a small way the example of the Chinese, along with many other Asian countries.

Importers and, more particularly, benefiting Financial Intermediaries in America readily provide support for this new status quo, of course – two rather mediocre efforts are to hand today defending the Chinese, from Bear Stearn’s David Malpas, and disappointingly, from the normally sagacious Bernard Connolly of AIG.

But ultimately this will produce plentiful social, political and financial stress, helpful to gold, if nothing else.

JB

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The DOG was weak all day, falling 30 to 2045. The DOW gave up the ghost late after looking firm all session. It dropped 7 to 10,664.

Chuck checks in:

Is it okay to ask again, is the Fed game coming to an end? I realize that the stock market has marched relentlessly and unhesitantly higher, ignoring all of the unmatched sentiment indicators and its refusal to ever try to sell off. But in the way I view stocks, this is totally unnatural and not an indicator of a market`s genuineness. At some point there should be some fear, some desire to take profits, to lock in gains, to switch positions, to short. But not this market that is coming celebrating its one year anniversary. Can it be so obvious that mutual fund cash positions are at the same levels where markets previously have collapsed or the Investors Intelligence survey now measures only 17% bears while the AAII individual survey totals but 15%. Can it be so clear that outside the borders of sites such as this one, a bear remains not just in winter hibernation but perhaps is an endangered species?

But, I submit that we have built one huge wedge on top of another wedge and we are beginning to see some frayed threads coming out of the Nasdaq. A year without any real attempt at a correction is so unusual that if we are turning down out of this wedge we can anticipate something out of the ordinary, also. I don’t know if it will come out of a sharp bounce in the dollar caused by events other than just currency intervention or if suddenly the dollar just collapses. I have read reasons for both arguments, and I don`t pretend to know. I just expect that when this thing begins, the Fed and all of it henchmen will not be able to prevent it. We are coming into what has been historically a very susceptible time of the year, and those who are complacently waiting until the election before selling might have to change their plans.

As far as gold is concerned, I suspect we are correcting some of the enthusiasm displayed since the bottom of a couple of weeks ago. The knee jerk reaction to every tick in the dollar will one day stop as more and more paper, no matter the designation, euro, yen, rand will start to decline against the metal. Given the landscape of a potential disaster in the financial structure which has been only aggravated by the manipulations by the central banks, it is impossible for me to ever turn bearish on gold, and particularly on the shares.

You can never forecast what will trigger it, and how far off this event might be. The days of higher stock prices and bond prices in the light of continuing commodity rises and currency debasements must come to an end. If this stock market starts to plummet, it IS possible that the shares might initially join in, but then again, they might turn immediately up. The stock market is the most sensitive instrument yet devised. It will forecast the event that is coming before it become publicly acknowledged. Many of us have expected it long before now, but it does not change the conclusion. We are entering into a new era! Chuck
[e-mail]

A LATE EDITION ADD by Houston`s Dan Norcini

Hey Buddy:

Great Midas this evening. The silver info you keep getting and sharing is simply phenomenal. Hats off to you and to your sources.

I wanted to remind you that this is the SECOND increase in s…

What is really odd is I keep reading bits and pieces of info on Copper that is very similiar to what your sources keep telling you about Silver. End users are going to the exchanges to get the stuff. Supposedly the LME is experiencing that in a big way - that`s how scarce the red metal is becoming.

One of the things that I keep in the back of my mind is the old adage that the best cure for high prices is high prices. In simple terms once a certain item reaches a said price that end users view as excessively high, they begin to look for alternatives.

The more I thought about this, the more I wondered what woul…

Just exactly what is the replacement item for copper? It sure as heck ain`t aluminum as anyone who has ever had aluminum wiring at one time can vouch. I honestly do not know if there is one! What other metal can be substituted for wiring in modern buildings?

I think of China and that massive modernization and industri…

There have been stories Bill about China hiring old barges and loading them with bags that contain coins with Nickel in them in order to get the stuff to produce the steel they need. Imagine a boad load of coins going to China on a barge. Helluva sight! These are not rumors but are facts. If China has that kind of demand for nickel and for copper, what is going to happen to silver when they decide they want it as well? We both know the answer to that. That is one of the other reasons I am standing for delivery as well on silver.

Neat times ahead.

Dan


U.S. National Debt Tops $7 Trillion for First Time

February 18, 2004 6:09:00 PM ET

By Jonathan Nicholson

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. government`s national debt -- the accumulation of past budget shortfalls -- totaled more than $7 trillion for the first time as of Tuesday, according to a Treasury Department report.

In its daily financial statement released on Wednesday, the Treasury said the U.S. debt subject to a congressionally set limit totaled $7.015 trillion, up from $6.983 trillion on Friday. The government was closed on Monday for the Presidents Day holiday.

While passing the $7 trillion mark itself has little practical significance, not unlike a car`s odometer rolling over, it may signal some tough political times for President Bush`s administration on fiscal policy.
The government debt ceiling stands only a few hundred billion dollars ahead at $7.384 trillion, and Treasury would need Congress`s blessing to borrow beyond that. Treasury officials say they expect the limit to be hit sometime between June and October.

-END-

From Sarge:

1:45PM Floor Talk : Hearing from trading desks that markets …

–END-

February 2004 16:20

Russia`s gold and foreign currency reserves hit new high.

Russia`s gold and currency reserves amounted to $88 billion on February 13, the Central Bank`s public relations department reported on Thursday. The reserves amounted to $84.3 bln on February 6. Consequently, they gained by $3.7 billion over the week, to reach a new record level.

–END-

From Peter Spina at www.goldseek.com to Café members:

I have had dozens of emails to me over the past weeks from LOYAL readers who are true believers in the GATA/Ted Butler cause ... they have sent many letters to E. Spitzer.

Posted:

http://news.goldseek.com/GATA/1077204813.php

Go get `em GATA!!

Peter

Peter’s presentation of my letter traveled all the way to Britain. Newswire picked it up too:

http://newsnow.co.uk/newsfeed/?search=Spitzer

Friday the 27th is first notice day for March silver. If we are to get some fireworks, we should have some kind of indication a few days ahead of time. While I am looking for some kind of squeeze in March, it may not come until May. Pinning the exact timing of something so extraordinary as a squeeze is very difficult unless you have specific information on what is going to happen and when.

What we are going to look for is how many deliveries are made, by who and to whom. If the "stoppers" keep the silver and don’t redeliver, we could have some serious fun.

When I speak of a squeeze, I am not referring to a deliberate effort to get the shorts and drive them to the wall. Although, wouldn’t that be nice? The reasoning behind my prediction for a dramatic rise in the price of silver in the near term is that there are a number of HUGE buyers out there who want physical and can’t locate it in SIZE elsewhere in the world. Therefore, they have gone to the Comex and will ask the shorts to find it for them via the delivery process on this futures exchange.

Should be most interesting!

Perhaps this is a sign the Comex leadership is beginning to sweat:

Exchange to Increase Margin Rates on Silver and Copper Futures Contracts.

NEW YORK, N.Y., February 19, 2004 — The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc., announced today that it will increase the margins on its COMEX Division silver and copper futures contracts at the close of business on tomorrow.

The margins on each of the two contracts will be raised to $…

–END-

Just received a wonderful heads-up from Judith McGee, my futures broker and friend at Refco. She noticed the February open interest rose from 40 contracts to 190 yesterday. The last trading day for the Feb contract is next Wednesday, the 25th. As we both noted, this is VERY unusual. Somebody wants 750,000 ounces of silver (5,000 ounces in a contract times 150) and they want to make sure they are in line for the silver ahead of those looking for silver with their March longs, like me. Perhaps, this is one of the reasons the Comex raised the silver margins today by 33%, a significant increase. Do I hear a choking sound in the Peanut Gallery?

Does this mean we get a squeeze? No, but this is the first bit of HARD evidence somebody is looking to the Comex for their silver. Meanwhile, we have been pounding away at the Comex authorities about the silver market fraud. If big buyers are going after the March contract to secure supply and the shorts can’t come up with the goods, all heck is going to break loose. The authorities contacted by the GATA ARMY (Spitzer, NYMEX, Comex and CFTC) have to be very nervous about this point in time. Talk about dereliction of duty.

On the same precious metals physical tightness note, I received a phone call from my STALKER source. He tells me it is also very difficult to secure gold in quantity and the price action on the Comex in no way reflects what is really going on in the physical world. There is that disconnect again.

The gold shares were moribund today. Little interest out there. The XAU fell .18 to 100.24, while the HUI shed .72 points to 229.83, right below 230 support. That will have as much meaning as closing above 240 had.

Silver could explode at any time. The way commodity prices are moving, it is also very hard for me to see gold staying down at these price levels much longer.

Keep those letters and emails flowing to the authorities. We might really have something here.

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

[ThaiGuru]

Die Silber und Gold Bugs können selbst auch etwas dazu beitragen, dass diese himmelschreienden Misständen, und Preismanipulationen der Gold, und Silberpreise, endlich auch hier zu Lande bekannt gemacht wird.

Bitte sendet eine Kopie dieses offenen Briefes der GATA an d…

Vergesst dabei bitte Eure Lokal Zeitung und die lokalen Politiker nicht.

Gold Board." target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">Falls Ihr andere Boards kennt postet es dort auch, und setzt einen Link auf das WGold Board.


Gruss

ThaiGuru




http://news.goldseek.com/GATA/1077204813.php

An open letter from GATA to New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer

By: Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee

GOLD ANTI-TRUST ACTION COMMITTEE

Eliot Spitzer, Attorney General
State of New York
120 Broadway Avenue
New York, NY 10271

February 19, 2004

Dear Attorney General Spitzer:

I have enclosed a beautiful silver eagle coin in this express mail delivery in an effort to get your attention regarding the manipulation of the silver market. What you do or don`t do in the weeks and months ahead could have enormous impact on the financial markets and politics alike.

As I am chairman of the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee, I know you have received more than a thousand e-mails and letters from outraged investors all over the world on this serious matter. By 2006 the manipulation of the gold and silver markets will have been exposed and acknowledged. By then the price of silver will have gone from the current $6.65 to perhaps $40 per ounce. Gold ought to be above $800 by at that time. The ramifications of the price rigging of silver and gold are going to be significant for U.S. financial markets.

The suppression of the prices of gold and silver is hiding systemic financial problems from American investors. Soon the cabal that is suppressing gold and silver prices won`t be able to keep those prices down any more. Then the stock and bond markets will be affected. In my opinion the stock market is going to be hit very hard, and unsuspecting investors will suffer terrible loses in their retirement funds. They are going to want to know what happened and why.

If you at least look into this matter before there is a
price explosion, you will be recognized as a public official who did what he could to stick up for ordinary investors, a man who was unafraid to delve into the wrongdoing of powerful people.

Gold and silver are my business. I have reliable information interests in China who tell me they have already tied up about 75 percent of likely world silver production for 2005. If my information is correct, it is only a matter of time before there is trouble in silver. Gold will follow. Financial market derivatives problems could be catastrophic.

From the many letters you have received, you must know
about Ted Butler by now. I hope you will meet him to learn how you can quickly get to the bottom of this matter.

Best regards,

Bill Murphy, Chairman
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee

----------------------------------------------------
To subscribe to GATA`s dispatches, send an e-mail to:
[e-mail]
----------------------------------------------------

[ThaiGuru]

Der Gold Preis!



Silber:



Dollar:



DOW:

[ThaiGuru]

@einmalpleitereicht

Absolut Richtig, was Klosterwein festgestellt, und gepostet hat.

Nur ob die vorletzte Erhöhung der Margin beim Silber der Grund für den Preisanstieg war bezweifle ich, weil diese Marginerhöhung Kaufkraft bei den nicht Mitgliedern verringert. Zudem finde ich es unverschämt, die Margin für normale Kunden, die zumeist long beim Silber sind, gleich um 675.- auf 2700.- Dollar pro Future Silber Kontrakt (1 Kontrakt entspricht 5000 Unzen) zu erhöhen, und bei den (Cabal?) Mitglieder, die extrem short sind, nur eine Erhöhung von 500.- auf 2000.- Dollar zu beschliessen.

Gruss

Thaiguru

[ThaiGuru]

Canadian Gold Hunter Corp.: 2004 Winter Drilling Program Starts at Assean Lake Gold Project in Manitoba


http://biz.yahoo.com/ccn/040217/820c891c214cc12bbf340891aca2…

[ThaiGuru]

Venezuela Minerven sees 2004 gold output at 3 tonnes


http://www.forbes.com/home_asia/newswire/2004/02/18/rtr12663…

[ThaiGuru]

Apollo rises from the ashes of Pegasus

RENO, NV (Mineweb.com) -- At first, the story reads like a Greek myth: Apollo Gold rose out of the ashes of the bankrupt Pegasus Gold. In two short, but very challenging years, Apollo Gold managed to get two mines back in production, earn a small profit, and find additional reserves.

http://trinity.mips1.net/mggold.nsf/Current/42256E2B005E0A2E…

[ThaiGuru]

February 20, 2004

Crucial Decision On Syama Mine Gets Ever Closer For Resolute.


http://www.minesite.com/archives/news_archive/2004/feb-2004/…

[ThaiGuru]

Anglogold beaming after Ashanti buy gets green light
February 20, 2004

Johannesburg - Anglogold expressed "delight" on Friday at approval by the Ghanaian government for it to acquire Ashanti Goldfields, saying it would press ahead with the deal to create the world`s largest gold producer.

"We are delighted to have the support of Parliament and the government of Ghana," Anglogold chief executive Bobby Godsell said in a statement released in Johannesburg.



http://www.businessreport.co.za/index.php?fSectionId=563&fAr…

[ThaiGuru]

By Philip Hopkins
February 21, 2004

Buka marks return of the magnate

It was a subdued affair. Only a few people were on hand to witness the formal return of Robert Champion de Crespigny to the mining industry.

The former mining magnate and a group of investors effectively took control of Buka Minerals at a special meeting in Melbourne yesterday.


http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2004/02/20/1077072840391.h…

[bluemoons]

#8603
Ulfur
bei der Wiedervereiningung wurde vieles falsch gemacht. ein Beispiel die Wechselkursparitäten. Die Ostmark wurde zu hoch getauscht. Vor der Wiedervereingung betrug der Wechselkurs 1 Dm = 4,4 Ostmark. Nachher bis zu 4000 Ostmark Guthaben 1:1 , darüber 2 Ostmark: 1Dm.(sofern ich mich noch erinnern kann) Für die Ostunternehmen hatte das verherrende Folgen. Hatte ein Unternehmen vorher ein Produkt für 4400 Ostmark hergstellt waren das umgerechnet 1000 DM. Nach der Wiedervereinigung waren die Kosten über Nacht auf 4400 DM gstiegen. Somit war kein Wettbewerb mehr am Weltmarkt möglich. Die Konsequenzen waren das die Unternehmen pleite gingen oder nur mit Subventionen in Milliardenhöhe überleben konnten. Die Anpassung hätte mehr Zeit benötigt. Bei der EU genau die gleichen Fehler.
Die Eu trägt mit dazu bei, das Deutschland das Armenhaus der Eu wird.
Die EU Kasse wird am meisten von Deutschland finanziert.

Ob das nicht gereicht hätte, haben die uns noch die DM geklaut.
Auf Kosten von D können dann die anderen Länder ihren Wachstum finanzieren.
Die Geldquelle Deutschland versiegt.
Man sollt auch bedenken das Deutschland die größte Volkswirtschaft in der EU ist und das Wachstum ab einem bestimmten Punkt nicht mehr %ual in gleicher Höhe gesteigert werden kann.
1% von 100 sind 1
1% von 1000 sind 10

Man stelle sich mal vor, man müsste jeden Tag %ual (sage wir 5 %) das Essen steigern . ist sowas überhaupt möglich?

[ThaiGuru]

Gold Fields`s Tarkwa mine expansion on target

20 February 2004 13:51

World number four gold miner Gold Fields` $160-million Tarkwa expansion remains on schedule and within budget, investment bank Merrill Lynch says in a recent note following a visit to Gold Fields`s Ghana gold mines.

The Tarkwa expansion consists of an $85-million investment in a carbon-in-leach mill and $75-million on a programme that will see Gold Fields take over the mining of Tarkwa from contractors.

weiter...


http://www.mg.co.za/Content/l3.asp?ao=31549

[ThaiGuru]

Reuters

Europe gold droops as dollar gains ground

Friday February 20, 7:00 am ET


http://biz.yahoo.com/rm/040220/markets_precious_europe_2.htm…

[ThaiGuru]

Market awaits Newcrest report

February 20, 2004 - 8:05PM


http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2004/02/20/1077072842757.html

[ThaiGuru]

Mirabel Resources Inc. to Acquire Rocmec International Inc.

Friday February 20, 8:43 am ET



http://biz.yahoo.com/ccn/040220/8e6763fb2229701882c5dcc58685…

[ThaiGuru]

Metorex reports headline loss

Junior miner Metorex (MTX) reported an interim headline loss per share of 12.18 cents for the half-year to December 2003, down from a 22 cent profit previously, due to the strong rand.

The Barberton gold mines, acquired last year from Anglovaal Mining (Avmin, AIN), performed well producing a mining profit in excess of R40 million.

weiter...

http://www.bday.co.za/bday/content/direct/1,3523,1549442-607…

[ThaiGuru]

News From Vangold`s Papua New Guinea Properties

Paul the Benjaminite


http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/benjaminite022104.ht…

[ThaiGuru]

February 20, 2004 06:30 AM US Eastern Timezone

Bullion River Gold Corp.: Acquisition of Cimarron Mineral Exploration Project

RENO, Nev.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Feb. 20, 2004--Bullion River Gold Corp. (OTCBB:BLRV) has acquired an indirect interest in mineral claims in furtherance of its new business direction for the exploration of gold and silver in the western United States.


http://home.businesswire.com/portal/site/google/index.jsp?nd…

[ThaiGuru]

Press Release Source: Coeur d`Alene Mines Corporation

Coeur Reports 4th Quarter and 2003 Results

- South American operations continue low-cost production growth -
- Restructuring completed, $250 million cash position to help fund future growth projects -
- Updated feasibility studies for major development projects on track -


COEUR D`ALENE, Idaho, Feb. 19 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ --

Highlights

Fourth quarter silver production of 3.5 million ounces at av…

Discovery of 800,000 ounces of additional high-grade silver equivalent ounces of reserves and 2.4 million tons of mineralized material averaging 4.18 ounces of silver per ton and .09 ounces of gold per ton at Cerro Bayo and Martha, with average discovery cost of $0.10 per ounce.
Total year-end reserves measure 174.6 million ounces of silver and 1.4 million ounces of gold.

Current cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments st…

San Bartolome and Kensington development projects in Bolivia and Alaska scheduled for final feasibility completion in the 2nd quarter of 2004 with construction decisions to follow.

weiter....


http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/040219/sfth027_1.html

[ulfur]

@bluemoons

Genau.

Wird Zeit, daß Schröder bei der EU vorstellig wird und klarmacht, daß Deutschland künftig ein Nettoempfänger sein muß. Aber der hat schon letztes Mal von Aznar übern Tisch ziehen lassen.

[ThaiGuru]

Hat`s hier allen die Sprache verschlagen?

Der Gold Preis!



Silber:



Dollar:



DOW:

[ulfur]

@thai

Sprache verschlagen? Nö, hab grad noch mal nachladen können.

Außerdem, heut ist doch Freitag! Da gibt´s häufig Ausschläge in die eine oder andere Richtung.

[ThaiGuru]

@ulfur

Hätte heute auch gerne noch ein, zwei weitere Minen zugekauft, doch fehlt mir leider für kurze Zeit noch das dafür nötigte Bare.

Nächstens sollen ja der Dollar, und der Goldpreis im Tandem ansteigen. Sehe ausser Devisen Manipulation eigentlich keinen Grund für einen Dollarpreisanstieg, doch mir solls Recht sein, da ja dann der Goldpreis in Euro gerechnet sogar "zweifach" steigen würde.



http://www.mahendraprophecy.com/home_flash_details.asp?home_…

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[berrak]

Tach zusammen.

Hier ein Link mit Silberwerten und einer subjektiven Bewertung. ich weiß nicht, ob man dem Herrn vertrauen kann. Wie findet Ihr die Unternehmen?

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldIsMoney/1076880813.php

Ihr seid nehme ich hiermit mal an auch in kleinen Explorern und Produzenten investiert ? Wie bewertet Ihr das Risiko bzw. die Chance eines Investments relativ zu den großen hecla CDE usw. ?

[ThaiGuru]

Also doch Sprache verschlagen!

[Thoemsi]

Ich sehe das als wunderbare Gelegenheit nochmal billig einkaufen zu können

[ulfur]

Na, da will mal etwas zu Jason Hommel sagen.

Sein wöchentlicher Newsletter ist eine sehr umfangreiche, schöne Aufstellung von Silberminen. Darunter befinden sich sicherlich einige gute Werte.

Er bewertet die Minen danach , wie viele Unzen Silberreserven erhält man für Aktien im Wert einer Unze. Das ist ein interessanter Maßstab, mit dem sich auf einfache Weise die Minen untereinander vergleichen lassen. Das dies allerdings ein ausreichendes Kriterium für die Aktienauswahl sein sollte, bestreite ich im Gegensatz zu Hommel. Er meint, bei einem Unzenpreis von 50 Dollar spielen Dinge wie Abbaukosten, finanzielle Situation oder Management keine Rolle mehr. Mir wäre es aber lieber, schon bei einem viel geringeren Preis schwarze Zahlen zu sehen.

Vor zwei Wochen hat Hommel die Aktie Cabo Mining empfohlen. Daraufhin hat sich Cabo innerhalb von wenigen Tagen mehr als verdoppelt. Das zeigt, welchen Einfluß er schon auf die Preisbildung von kleineren Silberminen haben kann. So ist bestimmt in einigen Aktien, bei denen es heißt „I own shares“ eine Art Hommelfaktor drin. Da er wöchentlich dafür wirbt, bleiben diese auch im Fokus der Anleger

[ThaiGuru]

"With all the great, hm, maybe not so great economic news th…

(2/20/04; 11:35:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 117440)

[ThaiGuru]

International Forecaster February, 2004 (#3) - Precious Metals & More

By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster



It is now becoming increasingly obvious that the losses in the silver market and the lack of physical silver to deliver against long delivery contracts are being guaranteed by the US government. We began accumulating silver coins and bullion in 1965 so we have some experience in the matter. We forecasted six years ago that above ground silver inventory would be gone by the end of 2003 and it is gone. Thus, we know there is no way the commercial shorts can deliver. This, next to the gold manipulation, could be the greatest financial fraud in history. The fraud is an official secret policy of the US government and has been in place for some time. As the largest stockbroker in gold and silver related assets from 1965 to 1989, we can say with great assurance that the game of fraud by our government will soon be over and they will be exposed for having been responsible for billions of dollars in losses by investors. This is simply because they now cannot make delivery. This fact could arise in March with contract delivery. We encourage everyone with contracts to take delivery, which will force an end to the game. Once the manipulation is exposed and contracts settled silver should jump to the $15.00 an ounce level. Not only will government have to deliver cash in lieu of silver, a major investigation will follow in Congress and by the SEC to include the brokerage cabal of J. P. Morgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, AIG, Deutsche Bank, etc. In addition, their cash cow will be dead. The exposure of the silver scam will break first. That will finally lead to exposure of the gold manipulation, which will bring down the US government. This will both appear in the context of a worldwide depression, which could bring anarchy to our country. That is why you should take delivery of precious metals and hide them and he prepared to defend them. Near the top, all paper positions should be sold and turned into physical positions. The silver and gold manipulations will be the greatest government scandal of all time. They will produce the greatest bull market in history. Americans will finally realize they have been naïve to have trusted their governments as their economy implodes. When the scandal is exposed, the US government will have to pay every contract in US Federal Reserve Note in cash. That cash will then enter the silver and gold markets compounding the price gains. If markets in gold and silver are closed, a black market will appear, we can assure you of that, and their prices will explode again. Citizens will begin to refuse to accept Federal Reserve Notes and only physical gold and silver coins will be the only currency for a short period of time. After that, a gold and silver-backed currency will appear and it may not be a currency sponsored by a government. Gold and silver will again be recognized as the only real money. Today’s manipulation offers the investor a unique –once in a lifetime – investment opportunity. We are assured the government will fail. They have to fail. The physical silver does not exist. If most investors take delivery, the silver manipulation will be broken and defeated. The derivative Ponzi scheme will collapse. Yes, you will be paid off at higher prices with taxpayer funds, but so what. You just take the proceeds, reenter the market, and buy more silver. If there is no market, we can assure you there will be a black market. You just cannot lose.

[superman6]

an thai

nicht die Sprache verschlagen.

Wer Bougainville, Cambrian und Investika hat
kann doch wohl zufrieden sein.

Die grossen Goldwerte kommen doch auch wieder.

HUI steigt schon wieder. Vielleicht stehen wir
Montag schon wieder über der berüchtigten 400er
Marke.

Bis dann mal.

[ThaiGuru]

[HighFidelity]

also mir hats die sprache schon verschlagen.
hatte an so einen ``rutsch`` nicht wirklich geglaubt.

HiFi

[empuge]

Sprache verschlagen?

vermutlich muß dieser Rückschlag stattfinden um Kraft für einen weiteren Anlauf zu finden. Wahrscheinlich werden sogar noch 380$ getestet. Will hoffen das diese Korrektur nicht so zermürben ist wie die letzte im Mai 2002.

Gruß
empuge

[faszination]

hallo thaiguru!

möchte am montag ein paar dieser silberkontrakte kaufen und im märz auf auslieferung bestehen. kann ich das über meine bank ordern und um wieviel unzen geht es bei einem kontrakt. wie schätzt du persönlich die situation ein?
besteht die möglichkeit, dass zum verfallstermin die silberpreise extrem nach unten gedrückt werden?

[Magor]

einen Tag mal nicht da ...
schon lasst Ihr die Bande Oberhand gewinnen?
Pyrrhussieg, nichts weiter! Das wird sich sehr schnell erweisen!
Durch die panikartige Volatilität des USD wird sich jetzt auch zwangsläufig der POG von der Bindung an den Euro lösen können!

Wie las ich das gerade noch irgendwo, wie es eigentlich richtig heißt?
Es pendelt alles herum um das Wertemaß Gold!
Nicht der Goldpreis ist heute etwas gefallen, der USD hat sich gegenüber Gold ein wenig stabilisiert! Aus unerfindlichen Gründen zwar, denn am Siechtum des USD hat sich nichts verändert, oder habe ich etwas übersehen?

An der Stabilität des Goldpreises allerdings hat sich dadurch ganz sicher NICHTS VERÄNDERT!

Grüße
Magor

[ulfur]

@fascination,
willst Du nach New York, um die Silberbarren abzuholen?

Der Kontrakt scheint aus 5000 Unzen zu bestehen.

Näheres über die COMEX Division der New York Mercantile Exchange findest Du vieleicht hier:

http://www.nymex.com/jsp/markets/SI_spec.jsp

[ThaiGuru]

@fascination

Wegen Deiner Frage zum Silber Futures Kontrakt Handel, hier nochmals ein früher (21. Dez. 2002) von mir gemachtes Posting über das Thema ob man überhaupt den uns vorgeführten Charts vertrauen kann, wenn wie gestern, und auch zur Zeit meines damaligen postings, die Goldpreisnotierungen so stark abfallen. Darin habe ich die dazugehörigen Links aufgeführt, wie und wo das zum Beispiel möglich ist. (Hoffe dass die Links alle noch funktionieren?)

Eine Auslieferung kannst Du jedoch von Europa aus besser vergessen, da zu umständlich, und zu teuer. Der Kauf von 1000 Unzen Silber Barren, ca. 30 KG, bei einer Bank, oder Degussa, ist da trotz MWST viel mehr zu empfehlen. Der in der Schweiz erhobene MWST Satz beträgt übrigens weniger als die Hälfte von dem was in Deutschland erhoben wird.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

******

Im übrigen könnte ich mir ebenso vorstellen, das keiner was merkt, falls die Charts auf Grund von unkorrekten Quelldaten, falsche Stände angeben.

Vielleicht können wir später dann alle einmal in 20/30 Jahren, wenn die Aufzeichnungen darüber zur Veröffentlichung freigegeben werden, lesen wie wir alle vor 20/30 Jahren, also heute in jetzigen Zeit, alle zusammen verarscht wurden.

Ihr glaubt jetzt vielleicht, dass wäre unmöglich?

Dann denkt doch einfach an den früheren Werbespruch von Toyota.

Hier noch ein Link auf eine Japanische Seite in englischer Sprache,wo Ihr Euch absolut kostenfrei ein File runterladen könnt, das es Euch ermöglicht, die Gold, Silber, und Platin Echtzeit Daten des Goldhandels ansehen zu können, mit "Bid" und "Ask" Positionen, und das noch 24 Stunden "Online" am Tag, wie die Firma Trasy angibt. Woher http://www.g9999.com/english/home/index.php Trasy ihre Daten her bezieht, ist mir (noch!) nicht genau bekannt.

Auf der Homepage gibt es auch jeweils 2 verschiedene Intraday live Gold und Silber Charts zum anklicken. Jedermann/Frau kann auch, online, ein Gold/Silber Handelskonto einrichten(kostenlos).

Aber Achtung die kleinste handelbare Einheit sind 100 Kontrakte beim Gold. Ein Kontrakt entsprechen 100 Unzen Gold. Das sind also ca. 3 Kilo. Zur Zeit stehen 1000 Kontrakte, also ca. 3 Tonnen Gold im "Ask" mit 341.80 Dollar(Jemand will Gold verkaufen)

Beim Silber entspricht ein Kontrakt 1000 Unzen!

Im "Bid" (jemand will Gold kaufen), stehen auch 1000 Kontrakte, geboten wird zur Zeit 340.30 Dollar pro Unze Gold.

Also Leute, sofort ein Konto einrichten, und die 1000 Kontrakte (ca. 3 Tonnen Papier Gold), zu 341.80 Dollar pro Unze kaufen, und noch einige Preistufen höher, und schon gibt`s wieder einen richtigen bullishen Trend. Wie lange weiss ich natürlich auch nicht, dürfte aber sicher bei einem Gold Bug ein Wonnegefühl auslösen, einige Tonnen Gold (Papier Gold) gekauft zu Haben. Und bitte unbedingt nicht vergessen auf physischer Auslieferung zu bestehen, nur dann verursacht dort grössere (Liefer-)Probleme!

Solange sich niemand physisch das gekaufte Gold ausliefern lässt, werden von interessierte Seite, die Gold Preise, im Eigeninteresse weiter manipuliert werden.

Hier gibt es die Demo Software zum runterladen.
http://www.g9999.com/english/gold_trading/main_open.php

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

February 20 - Gold $397.20 down $11.90 - Silver $6.49 down 14 cents

Silver Shorts In Trouble!

"People hate those who make them feel their own inferiority.…Lord Philip Dormer Stanhope Chesterfield

Couldn’t resist this quote for the day. Inferiority is just what The Gold Cartel wants us to feel, however, if anything, it is the reverse. These bullying cowards, who can’t bear to have the truth be known regarding what they have been up to for many years, are the inferior ones. This will become evident as the months and next couple of years go by. Nevertheless, I do despise these heavy-handed arrogants.

The big news of the day which sent the dollar soaring and the precious metals reeling:

Feb. 20 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar rose to the highest in more than a month against the yen in New York after the Japanese government said it plans to add to record sales of its own currency…..

-END-

However, so what! If gold were a free market, the efforts to prop up the dollar would have been counterbalanced by this bullish gold news:

Feb. 20 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. consumer prices rose 0.5 percent in January, reflecting the largest energy-cost jump since the Iraq War started. Prices excluding food and energy gained 0.2 percent, suggesting inflation remains subdued.

The increase in the price index last month followed a rise of 0.2 percent in December, the Labor Department said in Washington. The so-called core index, excluding volatile food and energy prices, climbed 0.1 percent the month before.

-END-

The inflation news is much worse in the US than acknowledged by most in the mainstream. They say there is no inflation except for what we have to pay for our food, gasoline for our car, other energy costs, education, and health care costs. What really counts doesn’t count as far as the CPI goes and what Wall Street wants to deal with. Certainly we know now why the US Government cancelled the PPI Report. It must have been horrendous.

For the third time in a month the dollar RALLIED on BAD NEWS, which makes little sense unless one appreciates these markets are managed. However, there was another market dynamic at play today. The hedge funds long yen were buried with their leveraged plays and were forced to liquidate various positions.

My former colleague Frank Veneroso has been talking to me for two weeks about the most leveraged spec play in history. As a result of Fed Governor Bernanke’s speech about "helicopter money" and Greenspan keeping the US Fed Funds both near zero and negative in real terms, the enormous hedge fund community has made a big one way bet according to Frank.

They have borrowed yen at virtually interest free money and invested the proceeds in high-tech stocks, gold, other currencies, various commodities, etc. Their bet on an advancing yen was also based on the notion the specs could defeat the Bank of Japan’s intervention efforts to stop the yen rise. Frank’s thinking was this would not be another spec victory like Soros did to the Bank of England because the world has never seen such a mobilization of money by the Japanese to prevent this from happening. Frank has been saying the Japanese want to teach the hedge funds a lesson. They are tired of them being a nuisance. He told me last night if the yen took out 107.50 and then 107.80, look out. It would trigger a yen/commodity debacle for many of these hedge funds and they would then go into a selling mode by dumping yen, high tech stocks and commodities such as gold, etc.

That is what happened today to some degree. It was panicsville in the gold pit. However, what must be kept in mind is, while the Japanese want to teach the specs a lesson, they don’t want a complete rout to roil the financial markets. As I mentioned to Frank, if our stock market is hurt badly by this intervention maneuver, the Japanese market could be hit hard too and then the financial market domino effect kicks in. Frank agreed, saying once the pain was felt the Japanese would stop the yen fall and let the hedge funds out.

The ramifications of what all this means are profound and too much for an afternoon MIDAS. The US is getting its wish to have gold tank to protect the interest rate derivatives at JP Morgan Chase, but a rising dollar and sinking stock market is not going to help President Bush’s re-election prospects. For those reasons, I wouldn’t expect the dollar rally to carry on too much further. The stock market is another matter.

Back to gold and silver. Gold fell to $393.40 at one point, down almost $16. Once again we see how gold is capped on $6 rule rallies to the upside, but is allowed to free fall on the downside.

How many times have I pointed this out the past two months a…

As a result of the price-rigging operation, market participants believe gold’s value is only linked to the dollar. This is nonsense. The Gold Cartel CAPS gold on rallies when the dollar is weak and then pounds it with abandon when it strengthens, knowing their selling will bring in the locals and other sellers on the short side. It is self-fulfilling. Remember, PRICE ACTION MAKES MARKET COMMENTARY. The cabal uses the dollar to control gold, more than gold rallies because the dollar is weak.

The bad guys have orchestrated this sort of trading for so l…

One of those reasons should be silver. Silver fell with gold early, but on the last $7 gold drop, silver barely budged. You could see sympathetic silver selling as gold tumbled, but silver wouldn’t do down any further. It kept popping back up and failed to make a subsequent new low even though gold was battered. By the end of the day, the locals were forced to cover their shorts.

Even with this week’s silver price decline, it is only one good day from closing in new high ground. As is, it only closed down 8 cents on the week. My information was strengthened today about some big players going to the Comex to take down silver. These big fund players are different than the ones who are trading on margin. They want the physical and are going to pay cash to get it. This group is not going to be scared away by The Gold Cartel’s antics and silver margin increases. They are looking for silver to rise in price to $30/$40 per ounce within two years and are buying physical for that kind of big play.

As I mentioned yesterday, the squeeze might not come in March. Could be May. But what should happen is whatever silver stocks are still left will be drawn down sharply. Once that occurs, the sharks will move in for the May kill, that is if the sharks aren’t all ready circling in March.

The silver open interest rose 889 contracts to 119,223, which is a NEW HIGH!

The 150 Feb contacts which showed up yesterday disappeared as the 750,000 ounces were delivered to an aggressive buyer.

The Registered Category for silver shows 53,206,041 ounces available for delivery. At current prices, it is worth $344 million dollars. You might recall that GATA`s Mid East Intelligence Network has reported a huge fund has been buying $250 million worth of silver. They began buying six weeks ago, switching funds from the $2.6 billion worth of gold purchased below $325 a ways back. We know they have gone to the Comex to purchase a portion of their silver because they could not find supply elsewhere. If 30% of this silver is coming from the Comex (only a guesstimate), it amounts to about 18 million ounces, or ¼ of the deliverable supply. This is ONE big fund we are talking about here. There must be others and then we know China is on the prowl scouring the world for silver.

The Gold Cartel can play all the games they want until deliv…

When silver makes its move, it has to affect gold in many ways. Surely, it will expose the gold fraud as commodity prices and inflation are on the rise in the US. As it becomes apparent to more and more investors what this Gold Cartel is doing, the gold sharks will move in along side their cousins in the silver pits. Gold will then fly no matter what the dollar does.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com


The John Brimelow Report

Deja Vu all over again

Friday, February 20, 2004

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $5.49, PM $5.43, with world gold at $409 and $408. Above legal import point. Gold $12 lower in subsequent NY trading will have triggered substantial Indian activity. Shanghai is now showing comparatively high premiums also. (India is also showing ex-duty premiums in silver of c. 23c with silver around $6.58 this morning: adequate for legal imports and very encouraging for silver’s friends.)

In view of yesterday’s comments on Asian undervaluation, it was interesting to read on Reuters of Turkish Bankers recommending methods of weakening the local currency, the Lira, which has been uncomfortably strong lately. (How this fits with joining the EU is not obvious. ) One can only regret the absence of weekly Turkish import numbers, which would probably have been strong this week.

Despite the continued weakening of the yen, which normally enhances TOCOM interest in internationally traded commodities, the public seems to have been a seller on TOCOM. Open interest fell the equivalent of 1,923 Comex contracts (to equal 123,822 Comex) on volume which was down 17% to the equivalent of only 17,597 Comex lots. The active contract was up 1 yen but $US gold slipped 60c from the NY close. During the NY day, of course, the yen has dropped more than a yen against the dollar compared with the Tokyo close. If, as some think, an excessive long yen position exists to be unwound, TOCOM "general public" sentiment may change next week. (NY yesterday traded 41,251 contracts: open interest rose 112 contracts.)

Taking Wednesday and Thursday together, open interest rose a sizable 5,304 lots on declining prices. With volume estimated at 1pm today at a heavy 65,000 lots – including a steep 27,000 lots between Noon and 1pm as gold was driven through $400 – it looks very much as if a reiteration of the short selling fury which culminated in the +$15 day two weeks ago today is being set up. This pattern of speculators ignoring the realities of the physical market to accentuate dollar moves – (Dollar Index up 1.6%, gold down 3.1%), but being rescued from serious consequences by the appearance of a heavy seller on the upswing, is getting boring.

Careful reading of the Austrian comment on gold sales reveals, in fact, at least as much enthusiasm for Central Bank restraint as sales:

"Liebscher declined to comment on how much the Austrian Nati…
(JB emphasis)

JB

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The DOW fell 46 to 10,619, while the DOG closed lower for the 5th week in a row at 2037, down 8. Despite all the cheerleading by Wall Street, the US economic scene is not on solid ground.

The dollar rose 1.36 to 87.40, while the euro lost 1.89 to 1…

Feb. 20 (Bloomberg) -- The yen extended its decline against the dollar in New York, to the lowest since early December, after Japan was reported to have raised its terrorism alert.

Earlier yen declines were spurred by comments from Zembei Mizoguchi, vice finance minister for international affairs. Mizoguchi said Japan won`t tolerate a stronger yen after the economy surged 7 percent in the fourth quarter.

–END-

From Jesse on today’s yen move:

This to me is a sign we are at the beginning of the endgame in the dollar, and perhaps the fiat regime.

If Japan really has 7 percent GDP growth, and they must go to these extreme lengths and expenses to weaken the yen and support the dollar through even more aggressive mercantilism, something is very, very broken.

I suspect someone may have had another peek into the abyss, and didn`t like what they had seen. Some big domino is teetering, and in serious trouble IMHO. A Japanese bank? Citi? Root cause is oil, dollar/yen, silver?

So many unintended consequences, so much malinvestment, so little time.

Jesse

GATA’s Mike Bolser:

Hi Bill:

The Federal reserve`s Desk added $3.25 Billion in temporary repurchase agreements today, February 20, 2004. This open market action caused the repo pool to stay down at $31.84 Billion just above its still falling 30-day moving average.

The rounding off of the DOW`s trajectory at 10,600 is quite noticeable and continues to suggest that the Fed wants the DOW to track sideways in order to intercept its former linear slope set from June to December 2003, a slope that reaches 11,750 on Labor Day 2004.

At this hour (noon EST) the DOW is down a bit to 10,600.

The assault on gold and silver today is interesting. The dol…

Mike

More from Mike:

Hi Bill:

Under a withering assault by the gold cartel, the DIVG (Dollar Index Value of Gold) 200-day ma stands firm in an up trend to who-knows-how high. The all-important yellow trace is un concerned with the day-to-day volatility of the gold price and just keeps moving up.

The 100-day ma (red trace) has also turned up from its brief down move further signaling weakness in the cartel.



I have speculated that the day-to-day ups and downs of the gold price are not the main event in today`s gold war...the DIVG 200-day ma is the real deal. Perhaps it is attached to the major derivatives contracts...we just don`t know. However, we do know that in June of 1996 (when they broke gold`s 200-day ma) that the cartel paid attention to this metric on the way down, so I`m paying attention to it on the way up.

As time passes, there are fewer and fewer low DIVG points in the past 200 day interval, so we will see more upwards trajectory from the DIVG 200-day ma in the future.

The cartel is retreating even as they counter-attack
Mike


More evidence of strong silver demand:

http://www.hinduonnet.com/thehindu/holnus/00620173016.htm

Silver prices extend gains

New Delhi, Feb 20. (PTI): Silver prices spurted on the bullion market here today to touch a record high of Rs 10,350 per kilo as stockists continued to create new positions triggered by firm overseas trend.
Silver was in high demand among stockists and industrial units amidst restricted supply.
The white metal was higher in overseas markets where it quoted at around 6.68 US dollar an ounce. –END-

Sarge on the CPI Number:

You can’t trust the CPI figures just released:

Note: Seasonal factors have been recalculated to reflect developments during 2003. For this reason, some of the seasonally adjusted figures above and elsewhere in this report differ from those previously published. See the technical note on page 10 for details. Effective with this month`s release the CPI expenditure weights have been updated to 2001-02. See pages 7 - 9 for notes on changes introduced into the CPI in 2004.

NOTE ON REVISIONS TO C-CPI-U INDEXES

In accordance with the previously-announced schedule, the Bureau of Labor Statistics is revising the 2002 and 2003 values of the Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U), effective with the release of January 2004 data.

The C-CPI-U was introduced with release of July data on August 16, 2002. The index in its final form employs a Tornqvist formula and utilizes expenditure data in adjacent time periods in order to reflect the effect of any substitution that consumers make across item categories in response to changes in relative prices. The C-CPI-U was designed to be a closer approximation to a "cost-of-living" index than the CPI-U and CPI-W. The use of expenditure data for both a base period and a current period distinguishes the C-CPI-U from the other CPI measures, which use only a single expenditure base period to compute price change over time.

Because the current expenditure data required for the calculation of the C-CPI-U are available only with a time lag, the index is issued first in preliminary form, using the latest available expenditure data at the time of publication, and is subject to two subsequent revisions. The preliminary values for each month of the preceding two years are revised annually with release of the January index. Expenditure data for the year 2002 are now available, and the C-CPI-U indexes for that year are now in final form. The initial indexes for 2003 are now revised interim indexes. The C-CPI-U U.S All Items index values for 2002 and 2003 as originally published and revised are shown below

From The King Report:

The Miami Herald’s Gregg Fields reports,

"Steel is increasingly becoming a precious metal in the Amer…

A friend told us that a local small manufacturer could not get steel from his usual supplier. Scrap steel was $100 to $120/ton to end 2003. By the end of January it hit $210 and has tacked on about another $60 in February.


Copper is up 50% in 3 months. It’s up ~30% for ‘04. Scrap st…

Now you know why BLS delayed the PPI (bond op expiry was Thursday).

Ethylene, used to make plastics, is in short supply in Asia.…

The soaring price of commodities, which have gone postal over the past three months, could be the catalyst for an economic slowdown in China and the rest of the globe.

-END-

This is scary, what the Iraq War is really all about, from an insider:

http://www.laweekly.com/ink/04/13/news-cooper.php

LA Weekly interview with Lt.Col Karen Kwiatowski, former Pentagon insider who worked with Pentagon "Office of Special Plans"

It is startling to see reason 3 confirmed by someone who was working on these policies when they were being constructed.

So if, as you argue, they knew there weren’t any of these WMD, then what exactly drove the neoconservatives to war?

The neoconservatives pride themselves on having a global vision, a long-term strategic perspective. And there were three reasons why they felt the U.S. needed to topple Saddam, put in a friendly government and occupy Iraq.

One of those reasons is that sanctions and containment were working and everybody pretty much knew it. Many companies around the world were preparing to do business with Iraq in anticipation of a lifting of sanctions. But the U.S. and the U.K. had been bombing northern and southern Iraq since 1991. So it was very unlikely that we would be in any kind of position to gain significant contracts in any post-sanctions Iraq. And those sanctions were going to be lifted soon, Saddam would still be in place, and we would get no financial benefit.

The second reason has to do with our military-basing posture in the region. We had been very dissatisfied with our relations with Saudi Arabia, particularly the restrictions on our basing. And also there was dissatisfaction from the people of Saudi Arabia. So we were looking for alternate strategic locations beyond Kuwait, beyond Qatar, to secure something we had been searching for since the days of Carter ­ to secure the energy lines of communication in the region. Bases in Iraq, then, were very important ­ that is, if you hold that is America’s role in the world. Saddam Hussein was not about to invite us in.

The last reason is the conversion, the switch Saddam Hussein made in the Food for Oil program, from the dollar to the euro. He did this, by the way, long before 9/11, in November 2000 ­ selling his oil for euros. The oil sales permitted in that program aren’t very much. But when the sanctions would be lifted, the sales from the country with the second largest oil reserves on the planet would have been moving to the euro.

The U.S. dollar is in a sensitive period because we are a debtor nation now. Our currency is still popular, but it’s not backed up like it used to be. If oil, a very solid commodity, is traded on the euro, that could cause massive, almost glacial, shifts in confidence in trading on the dollar. So one of the first executive orders that Bush signed in May [2003] switched trading on Iraq’s oil back to the dollar.

-END-

Jesse is on a roll today:

I predict this speech will go down in history as one of the great economic ironies of all time, right up there with Irving Fisher`s prediction that stocks had reached "a permanent plateau" just before the Crash of 1929.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2004/200402…

Remarks by Governor Ben S. Bernanke

At the meetings of the Eastern Economic Association, Washington, DC

February 20, 2004

The Great Moderation

Conclusion

The Great Moderation, the substantial decline in macroeconomic volatility over the past twenty years, is a striking economic development. Whether the dominant cause of the Great Moderation is structural change, improved monetary policy, or simply good luck is an important question about which no consensus has yet formed. I have argued today that improved monetary policy has likely made an important contribution not only to the reduced volatility of inflation (which is not particularly controversial) but to the reduced volatility of output as well.

Moreover, because a change in the monetary policy regime has pervasive effects, I have suggested that some of the effects of improved monetary policies may have been misidentified as exogenous changes in economic structure or in the distribution of economic shocks. This conclusion on my part makes me optimistic for the future, because I am confident that monetary policymakers will not forget the lessons of the 1970s. I have put my case for better monetary policy rather forcefully today, because I think it likely that the policy explanation for the Great Moderation deserves more credit than it has received in the literature. However, let me close by emphasizing that the debate remains very much open.

Although I have focused on its strengths, the monetary policy hypothesis has potential deficiencies as well. For example, although I pointed out the difficulty that the structural change and good-luck explanations have in accounting for the rather sharp decline in volatility after 1984, one might also question whether the change in monetary policy regime was sufficiently sharp to have had the effects I have attributed to it.15 The consistency of the monetary policy explanation with the experience of the 1950s, a period of stable inflation during which output volatility declined but was high in absolute terms, deserves further investigation. Moreover, several of the channels by which monetary policy may have affected volatility that I have mentioned today remain largely theoretical possibilities and have not received much in the way of rigorous empirical testing. One of my goals today was to stimulate further research on this question. Clearly, the sources of the Great Moderation will continue to be an area for fruitful analysis and debate.

-END-

Great Moderation, Lack of Volatility? It’s called market manipulation. Who is kidding who?

Some commentary from fellow Café members:

Hi Bill.

In poker there exists what is known as a "tell"--to wit: a mannerism by which a player reveals that he doesn`t have the cards. And I think we have seen a "tell" today. How so? Simple: it has been repeatedly alleged that the COMEX silver shorts are cornered, which means there isn`t enough deliverable silver on the planet to bail out their positions. Many traders, however, continue to doubt whether that is in fact true. But now we have behavioral evidence supportive of that conclusion: if the shorts don`t have the sliver, then their indicated response to a threatened squeeze would be to induce their buddies in Washington to dump gold, in the hope that panic selling would spill over from the gold pits into the silver pits, thereby alleviating the pressure. And that looks like exactly what is happening. Gold dropped $15 per ounce today, on massive selling that reeked of central bank involvement. Given the circumstances, that price movement is a tell, and what it`s telling us is that Ted Butler`s analysis of the silver market is basically correct: the COMEX silver shorts are cornered. If enough people stand for delivery, e.g., by buying into the expiring Feb silver contract, then the game is up. Silver will blow out, and interest in gold will then explode to levels that even central bank sales cannot suppress. If that happens, a global panic out of fiat money and into gold and silver becomes a realistic possibility.

The implication:

It may yet be possible to bring down the fiat money system b…

Mitchell Jones

Yep, silver "goes first".........so what if it gets a little… {chuckle}.

And the Chinese believe they`ve secured their 05 physical silver inventory by buying options for the majority of the 05 production? Too funny!!

These bureaucratic central planning bunglers couldn`t be much more pathetic as they simply add fuel to the fire with their CRIMEX rule changes. How original!

It just goes to show how far behind the curve they ALL are w…

If YOU want physical silver ya might just speed up the securing process. Now, EVERYONE Is on notice:

1. CRIMEX has been found out.

2. The regulatory authorities…

Folks, we`re approaching end game. What will this reckless gang of artificial price setters do next?

By the way, one should be most aware that it was US citizen silver that has been squandered over the decades by these blokes. National Treasure.....kaput. They`ve trashed much of what should be considered precious to American citizens, not just our markets.

Rusty

Morning Bill

Really sick of this completely obvious manipulation. It appears we do not have real markets anymore, just a series of endless choreographed interventions. How low can the PPT go? Something tells me we`re going to find out.

CPI is terrible, even considering it`s neutered by design. And the US$ rallies strongly just before and on the news? Now I see why the PPI has been conveniently buried somewhere: as a leading indicator it is undoubtedly veering from the "economic recovery" script. There is no independent analysis of these charades in mass media anymore.

Seems the laws are just not enforced against the PTB. Oh well, how does the saying go:
Steal a little and they throw you in jail, steal a lot and they make you king.

Thank goodness for you and the Cafe.
Just venting, but thanks for reading/listening.

Tom Kirsling

Dear Sirs,

I have been keenly watching your ongoing crusade against the manipulation of the silver, and to a lesser extent, the gold markets. You are indeed the three horsemen of precious metals. We, the small investors are your infantry.

I would also suggest that to overrun the seemlingly cowardly manipulatos that are tearing apart these markets, that you invoke higher powers. Besides the numerous losses that mining companies have had to stomach, the profits currently being denied to them, their shareholders and the owners of PMs, governments are losing out on much needed revenues. Countries such as Argentina, Peru, Chile, Canada, Mexico, Bolivia, Philippines, China and Australia would want an iron-clad explanation from the officials at the NYMEX/COMEX as to why their citizens are being denied wealth that is legally theirs for the sake of a cartel of traders.

Thus, my suggestion, if it hasn`t being tried out before, is that the Ministers of Trade and Industry in these countries be enjoined in this crusade. I suggest that they be made aware of the situation at the COMEX, their revenues lost accruing 15 years, and the steps they can take to end it.

Just yesterday, the conclusion of a summit of top trade negotiators from the US, Europe and Africa, held in Kenyan port city of Mombasa saw the two former powers loosen on key issues that led to the collapse on the Cancun talks. Indeed, the growing voice of developing countries jostling to have a piece of the global economic cake has just begun yielding fruit. If the Ministers of some of the aggrieved countries add their voices to the chorus to free silver and gold, the COMEX or CFTC officials will be hard put to maintain the status quo.

Kinuthia Karanja,

KENYA.

Bill

Have made a habit over the past month or so of reading the online version of one of the Chinese daily newspapers. Lots of neat stuff. On the front page yesterday there was story about the lack of cohesion between G-7 members where currency valuations were concerned. Not a mention anywhere about them being any part of the problem or potential solution though-but don`t tell John Snow or you`ll ruin his day.

Did you know that the Chinese are going to build satellite c…

If the clowns at the Comex really think an increase in margins is gonna solve their problems they better think again. I can envision a day when the Chinese go the Comex like we go to Home Depot-I`ll have 500 coppers, 800 silvers and if there`s room on the back of the truck, throw on a couple hundred gold.

Interestingly, a bit from today`s front page news was an article about the US government distorting scientific facts to serve their policy purposes. If only they knew?

Best

Rob


Derek Van Artsdalen from San Antonio:

Good afternoon, Bill:

Here`s a quick update on the South African Rand situation.



Notice that the series of lower highs and lower lows is still intact, as the most recent peak in the Rand`s value created a third point of resistance in the still-forming symmetrical triangle (see green circled portion). The downsloping upper trendline (shown in red) is still in charge, but the uptrend line (in blue) is also still intact. Note also that the MACD and RSI indicators are losing steam over the past few weeks (see purple lines).

As mentioned previously in the Cafe, this formation looks due for resolution before the end of April. This situation is weighing heavily on the minds of those involved with South African resource companies, as well as those who are invested in them. Despite the Rand`s relative weakness today, the general mining sector slaughter took its toll on just about everything, including the South Africans.

For what it`s worth, I contacted the Cafe`s resident astrologer, Mahendra, yesterday. You may recall that I interviewed Mahendra back in the fall of 2002. I asked him yesterday to give me his take on where the Rand is headed this year. He told me that he expects

"the Rand to start weakening any time now."

While I certainly don`t base my investments on astrology, I do allow for the fact that in a holographic universe all things are connected. Moreover, Mahendra, despite his
sometimes disastrous short-term predictions in the gold and silver markets, has generally gotten the long view nailed pretty well. The next few weeks should give us the answer we`re seeking about the Rand and its prospects this year.
Derek

Hello Bill,

Attached you will find Rich`s concluding thoughts on our South Africa trip.

Best regards,

Eric R. Radez

Investment Representative
David A. Noyes & Co.

Dear Bill,

Durban Deep property visit:

For the old guys, these are the Blyvoor, Buffelsfontein and Harteebestfontein Mines. We visited the Hartee Shaft. In the locker room they gave us new underwear, socks , boots, one piece overalls, knee pads, goggles, gloves, hard hats, hat mounted lighting, and power source utility belt. I did not take off my t-shirt unlike everyone else, my first big mistake. After entering the elevator, it took at least 40 minutes to get to the drilling zone. We traveled on elevators, trains, stairs, ladders, and at times on hands and knees. We were then at 1.2 miles beneath the Earth’s surface. Geothermal heat made the conditions almost unbearable. My son Eric looked at me and said "Dad you don’t look very good". I said "I feel like crap". I hoped my 283rd mining property visit was not going to be my last! I had not felt this bad since Placer County Search and Rescue pulled me out of the Western States 100 Mile mountain trail run. Mining personnel gave me liquids, stripped me to my waist, poured water over me and took me to a fresh air outlet. They assisted me to a medical cart that took me to the main shaft elevator. A doctor on the surface took my vitals and later released me.

This is why Gold is the only real store of value in the world today; it’s like trying to find a needle in a haystack. It is difficult to mine, and is of limited supply. Finding this out damn near killed me.

These Durban Properties employ 13,000 people. It is not an exploration company with 4 drill holes in the ground. It has a hospital, school, mine training center, stores, three restaurants, soccer fields, world class weight room, single family homes, dormitories, child care, and a security force of 140. A DROOY employee gets free room, three meals per day 7 days a week, and free medical care. His family must pay a nominal fee. He pays 1% union dues. Doctors are working directly with the ladies of the night. All the South African companies do this and are leaders in employee relations in Africa. We visited Soweto. During my entire 10 day visit, everyone was friendly and the food was great. What a beautiful part of the world.

Why is DROOY a buy?

The stock is very cheap in relation to other gold stocks.
The Blyvoor Shaft has a zero mine life when DROOY took it over. The present mine life is 22 years.

DROOY continues to increase mine life, margins, and ounces.
…

By the way, I called the bottom of this company in my last Radez Alternative Investment Report. When I got into the business in 1976 the first stock I bought for my first client was Modderfonteine at $.70, it went to $23.00. DROOY owns Modder now.

Over and Out from South Africa

Rich Radez

[e-mail]

Indaba Gold Conference Cape Town South Africa.

David Hale, economist:

Lower interest rates around the world coupled with the US encouraging dollar devaluation, and 2.5 million jobs lost will be a major hurdle for Bush. We have not seen this bad of a job market since the last Great Depression when Hoover lost 8 million jobs. Every recent president has outperformed Bush.

Carter created 10 million jobs, Bush Senior 2.8 million jobs. Last year dollar intervention was the highest in history. 180 billion dollars spent by Japan, 100 billion by China, and 30 billion by Taiwan. We now have a two tier dollar. First tier will depreciate 15% against the Euro. The second tier will be stable in Asia. China will be a dominant factor in commodity prices for the years to come. China has recently purchased a copper mine in New Guinea and an iron ore property in Africa. The market cap of Chinese steel stocks are 4 times the US market cap of steel stocks. Chinese foreign policy could shape the direction of the world. China now has 4 thousand troops in the Sudan to protect their oil interests. Outlook for Africa, modest growth of 3.2%, important political decisions ahead. 13 separate African elections this year.

Critical Issues:

Government policy towards mining companies.
South African j…

The Rand is now the biggest currency market in the world. It has become a "casino chip". Huge carry trade with Hedge Funds. This could take the Rand to 12 overnight.

America currently gets ¼ of its oil from West Africa. The US is planning to build bases in West Africa. If Kerry is elected, for the first time in history the First Lady will have descendents from Africa.
Rich Radez

The gold shares were hit hard with the XAU dropping 2.69 to 97.55. The HUI bounced off 220 support, but still dropped 7.53 to 222.30.

Looks like we will need silver to lead us out of the wilderness, which is just what I expect to happen.

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/7987446.htm

Copper is up 50% in 3 months. It’s up ~30% for ‘04. Scrap st…

Now you know why BLS delayed the PPI (bond op expiry was Thursday).

Ethylene, used to make plastics, is in short supply in Asia.…

The soaring price of commodities, which have gone postal over the past three months, could be the catalyst for an economic slowdown in China and the rest of the globe.

-END-

This is scary, what the Iraq War is really all about, from an insider:

http://www.laweekly.com/ink/04/13/news-cooper.php

LA Weekly interview with Lt.Col Karen Kwiatowski, former Pentagon insider who worked with Pentagon "Office of Special Plans"

It is startling to see reason 3 confirmed by someone who was working on these policies when they were being constructed.

So if, as you argue, they knew there weren’t any of these WMD, then what exactly drove the neoconservatives to war?

The neoconservatives pride themselves on having a global vision, a long-term strategic perspective. And there were three reasons why they felt the U.S. needed to topple Saddam, put in a friendly government and occupy Iraq.

One of those reasons is that sanctions and containment were working and everybody pretty much knew it. Many companies around the world were preparing to do business with Iraq in anticipation of a lifting of sanctions. But the U.S. and the U.K. had been bombing northern and southern Iraq since 1991. So it was very unlikely that we would be in any kind of position to gain significant contracts in any post-sanctions Iraq. And those sanctions were going to be lifted soon, Saddam would still be in place, and we would get no financial benefit.

The second reason has to do with our military-basing posture in the region. We had been very dissatisfied with our relations with Saudi Arabia, particularly the restrictions on our basing. And also there was dissatisfaction from the people of Saudi Arabia. So we were looking for alternate strategic locations beyond Kuwait, beyond Qatar, to secure something we had been searching for since the days of Carter ­ to secure the energy lines of communication in the region. Bases in Iraq, then, were very important ­ that is, if you hold that is America’s role in the world. Saddam Hussein was not about to invite us in.

The last reason is the conversion, the switch Saddam Hussein made in the Food for Oil program, from the dollar to the euro. He did this, by the way, long before 9/11, in November 2000 ­ selling his oil for euros. The oil sales permitted in that program aren’t very much. But when the sanctions would be lifted, the sales from the country with the second largest oil reserves on the planet would have been moving to the euro.

The U.S. dollar is in a sensitive period because we are a debtor nation now. Our currency is still popular, but it’s not backed up like it used to be. If oil, a very solid commodity, is traded on the euro, that could cause massive, almost glacial, shifts in confidence in trading on the dollar. So one of the first executive orders that Bush signed in May [2003] switched trading on Iraq’s oil back to the dollar.

-END-

Jesse is on a roll today:

I predict this speech will go down in history as one of the great economic ironies of all time, right up there with Irving Fisher`s prediction that stocks had reached "a permanent plateau" just before the Crash of 1929.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2004/200402…

Remarks by Governor Ben S. Bernanke

At the meetings of the Eastern Economic Association, Washington, DC

February 20, 2004

The Great Moderation

Conclusion

The Great Moderation, the substantial decline in macroeconomic volatility over the past twenty years, is a striking economic development. Whether the dominant cause of the Great Moderation is structural change, improved monetary policy, or simply good luck is an important question about which no consensus has yet formed. I have argued today that improved monetary policy has likely made an important contribution not only to the reduced volatility of inflation (which is not particularly controversial) but to the reduced volatility of output as well.

Moreover, because a change in the monetary policy regime has pervasive effects, I have suggested that some of the effects of improved monetary policies may have been misidentified as exogenous changes in economic structure or in the distribution of economic shocks. This conclusion on my part makes me optimistic for the future, because I am confident that monetary policymakers will not forget the lessons of the 1970s. I have put my case for better monetary policy rather forcefully today, because I think it likely that the policy explanation for the Great Moderation deserves more credit than it has received in the literature. However, let me close by emphasizing that the debate remains very much open.

Although I have focused on its strengths, the monetary policy hypothesis has potential deficiencies as well. For example, although I pointed out the difficulty that the structural change and good-luck explanations have in accounting for the rather sharp decline in volatility after 1984, one might also question whether the change in monetary policy regime was sufficiently sharp to have had the effects I have attributed to it.15 The consistency of the monetary policy explanation with the experience of the 1950s, a period of stable inflation during which output volatility declined but was high in absolute terms, deserves further investigation. Moreover, several of the channels by which monetary policy may have affected volatility that I have mentioned today remain largely theoretical possibilities and have not received much in the way of rigorous empirical testing. One of my goals today was to stimulate further research on this question. Clearly, the sources of the Great Moderation will continue to be an area for fruitful analysis and debate.

-END-

Great Moderation, Lack of Volatility? It’s called market manipulation. Who is kidding who?

Some commentary from fellow Café members:

Hi Bill.

In poker there exists what is known as a "tell"--to wit: a mannerism by which a player reveals that he doesn`t have the cards. And I think we have seen a "tell" today. How so? Simple: it has been repeatedly alleged that the COMEX silver shorts are cornered, which means there isn`t enough deliverable silver on the planet to bail out their positions. Many traders, however, continue to doubt whether that is in fact true. But now we have behavioral evidence supportive of that conclusion: if the shorts don`t have the sliver, then their indicated response to a threatened squeeze would be to induce their buddies in Washington to dump gold, in the hope that panic selling would spill over from the gold pits into the silver pits, thereby alleviating the pressure. And that looks like exactly what is happening. Gold dropped $15 per ounce today, on massive selling that reeked of central bank involvement. Given the circumstances, that price movement is a tell, and what it`s telling us is that Ted Butler`s analysis of the silver market is basically correct: the COMEX silver shorts are cornered. If enough people stand for delivery, e.g., by buying into the expiring Feb silver contract, then the game is up. Silver will blow out, and interest in gold will then explode to levels that even central bank sales cannot suppress. If that happens, a global panic out of fiat money and into gold and silver becomes a realistic possibility.

The implication:

It may yet be possible to bring down the fiat money system b…

Mitchell Jones

Yep, silver "goes first".........so what if it gets a little… {chuckle}.

And the Chinese believe they`ve secured their 05 physical silver inventory by buying options for the majority of the 05 production? Too funny!!

These bureaucratic central planning bunglers couldn`t be much more pathetic as they simply add fuel to the fire with their CRIMEX rule changes. How original!

It just goes to show how far behind the curve they ALL are w…

If YOU want physical silver ya might just speed up the securing process. Now, EVERYONE Is on notice:

1. CRIMEX has been found out.

2. The regulatory authorities…

Folks, we`re approaching end game. What will this reckless gang of artificial price setters do next?

By the way, one should be most aware that it was US citizen silver that has been squandered over the decades by these blokes. National Treasure.....kaput. They`ve trashed much of what should be considered precious to American citizens, not just our markets.

Rusty

Morning Bill

Really sick of this completely obvious manipulation. It appears we do not have real markets anymore, just a series of endless choreographed interventions. How low can the PPT go? Something tells me we`re going to find out.

CPI is terrible, even considering it`s neutered by design. And the US$ rallies strongly just before and on the news? Now I see why the PPI has been conveniently buried somewhere: as a leading indicator it is undoubtedly veering from the "economic recovery" script. There is no independent analysis of these charades in mass media anymore.

Seems the laws are just not enforced against the PTB. Oh well, how does the saying go:
Steal a little and they throw you in jail, steal a lot and they make you king.

Thank goodness for you and the Cafe.
Just venting, but thanks for reading/listening.

Tom Kirsling

Dear Sirs,

I have been keenly watching your ongoing crusade against the manipulation of the silver, and to a lesser extent, the gold markets. You are indeed the three horsemen of precious metals. We, the small investors are your infantry.

I would also suggest that to overrun the seemlingly cowardly manipulatos that are tearing apart these markets, that you invoke higher powers. Besides the numerous losses that mining companies have had to stomach, the profits currently being denied to them, their shareholders and the owners of PMs, governments are losing out on much needed revenues. Countries such as Argentina, Peru, Chile, Canada, Mexico, Bolivia, Philippines, China and Australia would want an iron-clad explanation from the officials at the NYMEX/COMEX as to why their citizens are being denied wealth that is legally theirs for the sake of a cartel of traders.

Thus, my suggestion, if it hasn`t being tried out before, is that the Ministers of Trade and Industry in these countries be enjoined in this crusade. I suggest that they be made aware of the situation at the COMEX, their revenues lost accruing 15 years, and the steps they can take to end it.

Just yesterday, the conclusion of a summit of top trade negotiators from the US, Europe and Africa, held in Kenyan port city of Mombasa saw the two former powers loosen on key issues that led to the collapse on the Cancun talks. Indeed, the growing voice of developing countries jostling to have a piece of the global economic cake has just begun yielding fruit. If the Ministers of some of the aggrieved countries add their voices to the chorus to free silver and gold, the COMEX or CFTC officials will be hard put to maintain the status quo.

Kinuthia Karanja,

KENYA.

Bill

Have made a habit over the past month or so of reading the online version of one of the Chinese daily newspapers. Lots of neat stuff. On the front page yesterday there was story about the lack of cohesion between G-7 members where currency valuations were concerned. Not a mention anywhere about them being any part of the problem or potential solution though-but don`t tell John Snow or you`ll ruin his day.

Did you know that the Chinese are going to build satellite c…

If the clowns at the Comex really think an increase in margins is gonna solve their problems they better think again. I can envision a day when the Chinese go the Comex like we go to Home Depot-I`ll have 500 coppers, 800 silvers and if there`s room on the back of the truck, throw on a couple hundred gold.

Interestingly, a bit from today`s front page news was an article about the US government distorting scientific facts to serve their policy purposes. If only they knew?

Best

Rob


Derek Van Artsdalen from San Antonio:

Good afternoon, Bill:

Here`s a quick update on the South African Rand situation.



Notice that the series of lower highs and lower lows is still intact, as the most recent peak in the Rand`s value created a third point of resistance in the still-forming symmetrical triangle (see green circled portion). The downsloping upper trendline (shown in red) is still in charge, but the uptrend line (in blue) is also still intact. Note also that the MACD and RSI indicators are losing steam over the past few weeks (see purple lines).

As mentioned previously in the Cafe, this formation looks due for resolution before the end of April. This situation is weighing heavily on the minds of those involved with South African resource companies, as well as those who are invested in them. Despite the Rand`s relative weakness today, the general mining sector slaughter took its toll on just about everything, including the South Africans.

For what it`s worth, I contacted the Cafe`s resident astrologer, Mahendra, yesterday. You may recall that I interviewed Mahendra back in the fall of 2002. I asked him yesterday to give me his take on where the Rand is headed this year. He told me that he expects

"the Rand to start weakening any time now."

While I certainly don`t base my investments on astrology, I do allow for the fact that in a holographic universe all things are connected. Moreover, Mahendra, despite his
sometimes disastrous short-term predictions in the gold and silver markets, has generally gotten the long view nailed pretty well. The next few weeks should give us the answer we`re seeking about the Rand and its prospects this year.
Derek

Hello Bill,

Attached you will find Rich`s concluding thoughts on our South Africa trip.

Best regards,

Eric R. Radez

Investment Representative
David A. Noyes & Co.

Dear Bill,

Durban Deep property visit:

For the old guys, these are the Blyvoor, Buffelsfontein and Harteebestfontein Mines. We visited the Hartee Shaft. In the locker room they gave us new underwear, socks , boots, one piece overalls, knee pads, goggles, gloves, hard hats, hat mounted lighting, and power source utility belt. I did not take off my t-shirt unlike everyone else, my first big mistake. After entering the elevator, it took at least 40 minutes to get to the drilling zone. We traveled on elevators, trains, stairs, ladders, and at times on hands and knees. We were then at 1.2 miles beneath the Earth’s surface. Geothermal heat made the conditions almost unbearable. My son Eric looked at me and said "Dad you don’t look very good". I said "I feel like crap". I hoped my 283rd mining property visit was not going to be my last! I had not felt this bad since Placer County Search and Rescue pulled me out of the Western States 100 Mile mountain trail run. Mining personnel gave me liquids, stripped me to my waist, poured water over me and took me to a fresh air outlet. They assisted me to a medical cart that took me to the main shaft elevator. A doctor on the surface took my vitals and later released me.

This is why Gold is the only real store of value in the world today; it’s like trying to find a needle in a haystack. It is difficult to mine, and is of limited supply. Finding this out damn near killed me.

These Durban Properties employ 13,000 people. It is not an exploration company with 4 drill holes in the ground. It has a hospital, school, mine training center, stores, three restaurants, soccer fields, world class weight room, single family homes, dormitories, child care, and a security force of 140. A DROOY employee gets free room, three meals per day 7 days a week, and free medical care. His family must pay a nominal fee. He pays 1% union dues. Doctors are working directly with the ladies of the night. All the South African companies do this and are leaders in employee relations in Africa. We visited Soweto. During my entire 10 day visit, everyone was friendly and the food was great. What a beautiful part of the world.

Why is DROOY a buy?

The stock is very cheap in relation to other gold stocks.
The Blyvoor Shaft has a zero mine life when DROOY took it over. The present mine life is 22 years.

DROOY continues to increase mine life, margins, and ounces.
…

By the way, I called the bottom of this company in my last Radez Alternative Investment Report. When I got into the business in 1976 the first stock I bought for my first client was Modderfonteine at $.70, it went to $23.00. DROOY owns Modder now.

Over and Out from South Africa

Rich Radez

[e-mail]

Indaba Gold Conference Cape Town South Africa.

David Hale, economist:

Lower interest rates around the world coupled with the US encouraging dollar devaluation, and 2.5 million jobs lost will be a major hurdle for Bush. We have not seen this bad of a job market since the last Great Depression when Hoover lost 8 million jobs. Every recent president has outperformed Bush.

Carter created 10 million jobs, Bush Senior 2.8 million jobs. Last year dollar intervention was the highest in history. 180 billion dollars spent by Japan, 100 billion by China, and 30 billion by Taiwan. We now have a two tier dollar. First tier will depreciate 15% against the Euro. The second tier will be stable in Asia. China will be a dominant factor in commodity prices for the years to come. China has recently purchased a copper mine in New Guinea and an iron ore property in Africa. The market cap of Chinese steel stocks are 4 times the US market cap of steel stocks. Chinese foreign policy could shape the direction of the world. China now has 4 thousand troops in the Sudan to protect their oil interests. Outlook for Africa, modest growth of 3.2%, important political decisions ahead. 13 separate African elections this year.

Critical Issues:

Government policy towards mining companies.
South African j…

The Rand is now the biggest currency market in the world. It has become a "casino chip". Huge carry trade with Hedge Funds. This could take the Rand to 12 overnight.

America currently gets ¼ of its oil from West Africa. The US is planning to build bases in West Africa. If Kerry is elected, for the first time in history the First Lady will have descendents from Africa.
Rich Radez

The gold shares were hit hard with the XAU dropping 2.69 to 97.55. The HUI bounced off 220 support, but still dropped 7.53 to 222.30.

Looks like we will need silver to lead us out of the wilderness, which is just what I expect to happen.

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">Copper is up 50% in 3 months. It’s up ~30% for ‘04. Scrap st…

Now you know why BLS delayed the PPI (bond op expiry was Thursday).

Ethylene, used to make plastics, is in short supply in Asia.…

The soaring price of commodities, which have gone postal over the past three months, could be the catalyst for an economic slowdown in China and the rest of the globe.

-END-

This is scary, what the Iraq War is really all about, from an insider:

http://www.laweekly.com/ink/04/13/news-cooper.php

LA Weekly interview with Lt.Col Karen Kwiatowski, former Pentagon insider who worked with Pentagon "Office of Special Plans"

It is startling to see reason 3 confirmed by someone who was working on these policies when they were being constructed.

So if, as you argue, they knew there weren’t any of these WMD, then what exactly drove the neoconservatives to war?

The neoconservatives pride themselves on having a global vision, a long-term strategic perspective. And there were three reasons why they felt the U.S. needed to topple Saddam, put in a friendly government and occupy Iraq.

One of those reasons is that sanctions and containment were working and everybody pretty much knew it. Many companies around the world were preparing to do business with Iraq in anticipation of a lifting of sanctions. But the U.S. and the U.K. had been bombing northern and southern Iraq since 1991. So it was very unlikely that we would be in any kind of position to gain significant contracts in any post-sanctions Iraq. And those sanctions were going to be lifted soon, Saddam would still be in place, and we would get no financial benefit.

The second reason has to do with our military-basing posture in the region. We had been very dissatisfied with our relations with Saudi Arabia, particularly the restrictions on our basing. And also there was dissatisfaction from the people of Saudi Arabia. So we were looking for alternate strategic locations beyond Kuwait, beyond Qatar, to secure something we had been searching for since the days of Carter ­ to secure the energy lines of communication in the region. Bases in Iraq, then, were very important ­ that is, if you hold that is America’s role in the world. Saddam Hussein was not about to invite us in.

The last reason is the conversion, the switch Saddam Hussein made in the Food for Oil program, from the dollar to the euro. He did this, by the way, long before 9/11, in November 2000 ­ selling his oil for euros. The oil sales permitted in that program aren’t very much. But when the sanctions would be lifted, the sales from the country with the second largest oil reserves on the planet would have been moving to the euro.

The U.S. dollar is in a sensitive period because we are a debtor nation now. Our currency is still popular, but it’s not backed up like it used to be. If oil, a very solid commodity, is traded on the euro, that could cause massive, almost glacial, shifts in confidence in trading on the dollar. So one of the first executive orders that Bush signed in May [2003] switched trading on Iraq’s oil back to the dollar.

-END-

Jesse is on a roll today:

I predict this speech will go down in history as one of the great economic ironies of all time, right up there with Irving Fisher`s prediction that stocks had reached "a permanent plateau" just before the Crash of 1929.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2004/200402…

Remarks by Governor Ben S. Bernanke

At the meetings of the Eastern Economic Association, Washington, DC

February 20, 2004

The Great Moderation

Conclusion

The Great Moderation, the substantial decline in macroeconomic volatility over the past twenty years, is a striking economic development. Whether the dominant cause of the Great Moderation is structural change, improved monetary policy, or simply good luck is an important question about which no consensus has yet formed. I have argued today that improved monetary policy has likely made an important contribution not only to the reduced volatility of inflation (which is not particularly controversial) but to the reduced volatility of output as well.

Moreover, because a change in the monetary policy regime has pervasive effects, I have suggested that some of the effects of improved monetary policies may have been misidentified as exogenous changes in economic structure or in the distribution of economic shocks. This conclusion on my part makes me optimistic for the future, because I am confident that monetary policymakers will not forget the lessons of the 1970s. I have put my case for better monetary policy rather forcefully today, because I think it likely that the policy explanation for the Great Moderation deserves more credit than it has received in the literature. However, let me close by emphasizing that the debate remains very much open.

Although I have focused on its strengths, the monetary policy hypothesis has potential deficiencies as well. For example, although I pointed out the difficulty that the structural change and good-luck explanations have in accounting for the rather sharp decline in volatility after 1984, one might also question whether the change in monetary policy regime was sufficiently sharp to have had the effects I have attributed to it.15 The consistency of the monetary policy explanation with the experience of the 1950s, a period of stable inflation during which output volatility declined but was high in absolute terms, deserves further investigation. Moreover, several of the channels by which monetary policy may have affected volatility that I have mentioned today remain largely theoretical possibilities and have not received much in the way of rigorous empirical testing. One of my goals today was to stimulate further research on this question. Clearly, the sources of the Great Moderation will continue to be an area for fruitful analysis and debate.

-END-

Great Moderation, Lack of Volatility? It’s called market manipulation. Who is kidding who?

Some commentary from fellow Café members:

Hi Bill.

In poker there exists what is known as a "tell"--to wit: a mannerism by which a player reveals that he doesn`t have the cards. And I think we have seen a "tell" today. How so? Simple: it has been repeatedly alleged that the COMEX silver shorts are cornered, which means there isn`t enough deliverable silver on the planet to bail out their positions. Many traders, however, continue to doubt whether that is in fact true. But now we have behavioral evidence supportive of that conclusion: if the shorts don`t have the sliver, then their indicated response to a threatened squeeze would be to induce their buddies in Washington to dump gold, in the hope that panic selling would spill over from the gold pits into the silver pits, thereby alleviating the pressure. And that looks like exactly what is happening. Gold dropped $15 per ounce today, on massive selling that reeked of central bank involvement. Given the circumstances, that price movement is a tell, and what it`s telling us is that Ted Butler`s analysis of the silver market is basically correct: the COMEX silver shorts are cornered. If enough people stand for delivery, e.g., by buying into the expiring Feb silver contract, then the game is up. Silver will blow out, and interest in gold will then explode to levels that even central bank sales cannot suppress. If that happens, a global panic out of fiat money and into gold and silver becomes a realistic possibility.

The implication:

It may yet be possible to bring down the fiat money system b…

Mitchell Jones

Yep, silver "goes first".........so what if it gets a little… {chuckle}.

And the Chinese believe they`ve secured their 05 physical silver inventory by buying options for the majority of the 05 production? Too funny!!

These bureaucratic central planning bunglers couldn`t be much more pathetic as they simply add fuel to the fire with their CRIMEX rule changes. How original!

It just goes to show how far behind the curve they ALL are w…

If YOU want physical silver ya might just speed up the securing process. Now, EVERYONE Is on notice:

1. CRIMEX has been found out.

2. The regulatory authorities…

Folks, we`re approaching end game. What will this reckless gang of artificial price setters do next?

By the way, one should be most aware that it was US citizen silver that has been squandered over the decades by these blokes. National Treasure.....kaput. They`ve trashed much of what should be considered precious to American citizens, not just our markets.

Rusty

Morning Bill

Really sick of this completely obvious manipulation. It appears we do not have real markets anymore, just a series of endless choreographed interventions. How low can the PPT go? Something tells me we`re going to find out.

CPI is terrible, even considering it`s neutered by design. And the US$ rallies strongly just before and on the news? Now I see why the PPI has been conveniently buried somewhere: as a leading indicator it is undoubtedly veering from the "economic recovery" script. There is no independent analysis of these charades in mass media anymore.

Seems the laws are just not enforced against the PTB. Oh well, how does the saying go:
Steal a little and they throw you in jail, steal a lot and they make you king.

Thank goodness for you and the Cafe.
Just venting, but thanks for reading/listening.

Tom Kirsling

Dear Sirs,

I have been keenly watching your ongoing crusade against the manipulation of the silver, and to a lesser extent, the gold markets. You are indeed the three horsemen of precious metals. We, the small investors are your infantry.

I would also suggest that to overrun the seemlingly cowardly manipulatos that are tearing apart these markets, that you invoke higher powers. Besides the numerous losses that mining companies have had to stomach, the profits currently being denied to them, their shareholders and the owners of PMs, governments are losing out on much needed revenues. Countries such as Argentina, Peru, Chile, Canada, Mexico, Bolivia, Philippines, China and Australia would want an iron-clad explanation from the officials at the NYMEX/COMEX as to why their citizens are being denied wealth that is legally theirs for the sake of a cartel of traders.

Thus, my suggestion, if it hasn`t being tried out before, is that the Ministers of Trade and Industry in these countries be enjoined in this crusade. I suggest that they be made aware of the situation at the COMEX, their revenues lost accruing 15 years, and the steps they can take to end it.

Just yesterday, the conclusion of a summit of top trade negotiators from the US, Europe and Africa, held in Kenyan port city of Mombasa saw the two former powers loosen on key issues that led to the collapse on the Cancun talks. Indeed, the growing voice of developing countries jostling to have a piece of the global economic cake has just begun yielding fruit. If the Ministers of some of the aggrieved countries add their voices to the chorus to free silver and gold, the COMEX or CFTC officials will be hard put to maintain the status quo.

Kinuthia Karanja,

KENYA.

Bill

Have made a habit over the past month or so of reading the online version of one of the Chinese daily newspapers. Lots of neat stuff. On the front page yesterday there was story about the lack of cohesion between G-7 members where currency valuations were concerned. Not a mention anywhere about them being any part of the problem or potential solution though-but don`t tell John Snow or you`ll ruin his day.

Did you know that the Chinese are going to build satellite c…

If the clowns at the Comex really think an increase in margins is gonna solve their problems they better think again. I can envision a day when the Chinese go the Comex like we go to Home Depot-I`ll have 500 coppers, 800 silvers and if there`s room on the back of the truck, throw on a couple hundred gold.

Interestingly, a bit from today`s front page news was an article about the US government distorting scientific facts to serve their policy purposes. If only they knew?

Best

Rob


Derek Van Artsdalen from San Antonio:

Good afternoon, Bill:

Here`s a quick update on the South African Rand situation.



Notice that the series of lower highs and lower lows is still intact, as the most recent peak in the Rand`s value created a third point of resistance in the still-forming symmetrical triangle (see green circled portion). The downsloping upper trendline (shown in red) is still in charge, but the uptrend line (in blue) is also still intact. Note also that the MACD and RSI indicators are losing steam over the past few weeks (see purple lines).

As mentioned previously in the Cafe, this formation looks due for resolution before the end of April. This situation is weighing heavily on the minds of those involved with South African resource companies, as well as those who are invested in them. Despite the Rand`s relative weakness today, the general mining sector slaughter took its toll on just about everything, including the South Africans.

For what it`s worth, I contacted the Cafe`s resident astrologer, Mahendra, yesterday. You may recall that I interviewed Mahendra back in the fall of 2002. I asked him yesterday to give me his take on where the Rand is headed this year. He told me that he expects

"the Rand to start weakening any time now."

While I certainly don`t base my investments on astrology, I do allow for the fact that in a holographic universe all things are connected. Moreover, Mahendra, despite his
sometimes disastrous short-term predictions in the gold and silver markets, has generally gotten the long view nailed pretty well. The next few weeks should give us the answer we`re seeking about the Rand and its prospects this year.
Derek

Hello Bill,

Attached you will find Rich`s concluding thoughts on our South Africa trip.

Best regards,

Eric R. Radez

Investment Representative
David A. Noyes & Co.

Dear Bill,

Durban Deep property visit:

For the old guys, these are the Blyvoor, Buffelsfontein and Harteebestfontein Mines. We visited the Hartee Shaft. In the locker room they gave us new underwear, socks , boots, one piece overalls, knee pads, goggles, gloves, hard hats, hat mounted lighting, and power source utility belt. I did not take off my t-shirt unlike everyone else, my first big mistake. After entering the elevator, it took at least 40 minutes to get to the drilling zone. We traveled on elevators, trains, stairs, ladders, and at times on hands and knees. We were then at 1.2 miles beneath the Earth’s surface. Geothermal heat made the conditions almost unbearable. My son Eric looked at me and said "Dad you don’t look very good". I said "I feel like crap". I hoped my 283rd mining property visit was not going to be my last! I had not felt this bad since Placer County Search and Rescue pulled me out of the Western States 100 Mile mountain trail run. Mining personnel gave me liquids, stripped me to my waist, poured water over me and took me to a fresh air outlet. They assisted me to a medical cart that took me to the main shaft elevator. A doctor on the surface took my vitals and later released me.

This is why Gold is the only real store of value in the world today; it’s like trying to find a needle in a haystack. It is difficult to mine, and is of limited supply. Finding this out damn near killed me.

These Durban Properties employ 13,000 people. It is not an exploration company with 4 drill holes in the ground. It has a hospital, school, mine training center, stores, three restaurants, soccer fields, world class weight room, single family homes, dormitories, child care, and a security force of 140. A DROOY employee gets free room, three meals per day 7 days a week, and free medical care. His family must pay a nominal fee. He pays 1% union dues. Doctors are working directly with the ladies of the night. All the South African companies do this and are leaders in employee relations in Africa. We visited Soweto. During my entire 10 day visit, everyone was friendly and the food was great. What a beautiful part of the world.

Why is DROOY a buy?

The stock is very cheap in relation to other gold stocks.
The Blyvoor Shaft has a zero mine life when DROOY took it over. The present mine life is 22 years.

DROOY continues to increase mine life, margins, and ounces.
…

By the way, I called the bottom of this company in my last Radez Alternative Investment Report. When I got into the business in 1976 the first stock I bought for my first client was Modderfonteine at $.70, it went to $23.00. DROOY owns Modder now.

Over and Out from South Africa

Rich Radez

[e-mail]

Indaba Gold Conference Cape Town South Africa.

David Hale, economist:

Lower interest rates around the world coupled with the US encouraging dollar devaluation, and 2.5 million jobs lost will be a major hurdle for Bush. We have not seen this bad of a job market since the last Great Depression when Hoover lost 8 million jobs. Every recent president has outperformed Bush.

Carter created 10 million jobs, Bush Senior 2.8 million jobs. Last year dollar intervention was the highest in history. 180 billion dollars spent by Japan, 100 billion by China, and 30 billion by Taiwan. We now have a two tier dollar. First tier will depreciate 15% against the Euro. The second tier will be stable in Asia. China will be a dominant factor in commodity prices for the years to come. China has recently purchased a copper mine in New Guinea and an iron ore property in Africa. The market cap of Chinese steel stocks are 4 times the US market cap of steel stocks. Chinese foreign policy could shape the direction of the world. China now has 4 thousand troops in the Sudan to protect their oil interests. Outlook for Africa, modest growth of 3.2%, important political decisions ahead. 13 separate African elections this year.

Critical Issues:

Government policy towards mining companies.
South African j…

The Rand is now the biggest currency market in the world. It has become a "casino chip". Huge carry trade with Hedge Funds. This could take the Rand to 12 overnight.

America currently gets ¼ of its oil from West Africa. The US is planning to build bases in West Africa. If Kerry is elected, for the first time in history the First Lady will have descendents from Africa.
Rich Radez

The gold shares were hit hard with the XAU dropping 2.69 to 97.55. The HUI bounced off 220 support, but still dropped 7.53 to 222.30.

Looks like we will need silver to lead us out of the wilderness, which is just what I expect to happen.

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/7987446.htm

Copper is up 50% in 3 months. It’s up ~30% for ‘04. Scrap st…

Now you know why BLS delayed the PPI (bond op expiry was Thursday).

Ethylene, used to make plastics, is in short supply in Asia.…

The soaring price of commodities, which have gone postal over the past three months, could be the catalyst for an economic slowdown in China and the rest of the globe.

-END-

This is scary, what the Iraq War is really all about, from an insider:

http://www.laweekly.com/ink/04/13/news-cooper.php

LA Weekly interview with Lt.Col Karen Kwiatowski, former Pentagon insider who worked with Pentagon "Office of Special Plans"

It is startling to see reason 3 confirmed by someone who was working on these policies when they were being constructed.

So if, as you argue, they knew there weren’t any of these WMD, then what exactly drove the neoconservatives to war?

The neoconservatives pride themselves on having a global vision, a long-term strategic perspective. And there were three reasons why they felt the U.S. needed to topple Saddam, put in a friendly government and occupy Iraq.

One of those reasons is that sanctions and containment were working and everybody pretty much knew it. Many companies around the world were preparing to do business with Iraq in anticipation of a lifting of sanctions. But the U.S. and the U.K. had been bombing northern and southern Iraq since 1991. So it was very unlikely that we would be in any kind of position to gain significant contracts in any post-sanctions Iraq. And those sanctions were going to be lifted soon, Saddam would still be in place, and we would get no financial benefit.

The second reason has to do with our military-basing posture in the region. We had been very dissatisfied with our relations with Saudi Arabia, particularly the restrictions on our basing. And also there was dissatisfaction from the people of Saudi Arabia. So we were looking for alternate strategic locations beyond Kuwait, beyond Qatar, to secure something we had been searching for since the days of Carter ­ to secure the energy lines of communication in the region. Bases in Iraq, then, were very important ­ that is, if you hold that is America’s role in the world. Saddam Hussein was not about to invite us in.

The last reason is the conversion, the switch Saddam Hussein made in the Food for Oil program, from the dollar to the euro. He did this, by the way, long before 9/11, in November 2000 ­ selling his oil for euros. The oil sales permitted in that program aren’t very much. But when the sanctions would be lifted, the sales from the country with the second largest oil reserves on the planet would have been moving to the euro.

The U.S. dollar is in a sensitive period because we are a debtor nation now. Our currency is still popular, but it’s not backed up like it used to be. If oil, a very solid commodity, is traded on the euro, that could cause massive, almost glacial, shifts in confidence in trading on the dollar. So one of the first executive orders that Bush signed in May [2003] switched trading on Iraq’s oil back to the dollar.

-END-

Jesse is on a roll today:

I predict this speech will go down in history as one of the great economic ironies of all time, right up there with Irving Fisher`s prediction that stocks had reached "a permanent plateau" just before the Crash of 1929.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2004/200402…

Remarks by Governor Ben S. Bernanke

At the meetings of the Eastern Economic Association, Washington, DC

February 20, 2004

The Great Moderation

Conclusion

The Great Moderation, the substantial decline in macroeconomic volatility over the past twenty years, is a striking economic development. Whether the dominant cause of the Great Moderation is structural change, improved monetary policy, or simply good luck is an important question about which no consensus has yet formed. I have argued today that improved monetary policy has likely made an important contribution not only to the reduced volatility of inflation (which is not particularly controversial) but to the reduced volatility of output as well.

Moreover, because a change in the monetary policy regime has pervasive effects, I have suggested that some of the effects of improved monetary policies may have been misidentified as exogenous changes in economic structure or in the distribution of economic shocks. This conclusion on my part makes me optimistic for the future, because I am confident that monetary policymakers will not forget the lessons of the 1970s. I have put my case for better monetary policy rather forcefully today, because I think it likely that the policy explanation for the Great Moderation deserves more credit than it has received in the literature. However, let me close by emphasizing that the debate remains very much open.

Although I have focused on its strengths, the monetary policy hypothesis has potential deficiencies as well. For example, although I pointed out the difficulty that the structural change and good-luck explanations have in accounting for the rather sharp decline in volatility after 1984, one might also question whether the change in monetary policy regime was sufficiently sharp to have had the effects I have attributed to it.15 The consistency of the monetary policy explanation with the experience of the 1950s, a period of stable inflation during which output volatility declined but was high in absolute terms, deserves further investigation. Moreover, several of the channels by which monetary policy may have affected volatility that I have mentioned today remain largely theoretical possibilities and have not received much in the way of rigorous empirical testing. One of my goals today was to stimulate further research on this question. Clearly, the sources of the Great Moderation will continue to be an area for fruitful analysis and debate.

-END-

Great Moderation, Lack of Volatility? It’s called market manipulation. Who is kidding who?

Some commentary from fellow Café members:

Hi Bill.

In poker there exists what is known as a "tell"--to wit: a mannerism by which a player reveals that he doesn`t have the cards. And I think we have seen a "tell" today. How so? Simple: it has been repeatedly alleged that the COMEX silver shorts are cornered, which means there isn`t enough deliverable silver on the planet to bail out their positions. Many traders, however, continue to doubt whether that is in fact true. But now we have behavioral evidence supportive of that conclusion: if the shorts don`t have the sliver, then their indicated response to a threatened squeeze would be to induce their buddies in Washington to dump gold, in the hope that panic selling would spill over from the gold pits into the silver pits, thereby alleviating the pressure. And that looks like exactly what is happening. Gold dropped $15 per ounce today, on massive selling that reeked of central bank involvement. Given the circumstances, that price movement is a tell, and what it`s telling us is that Ted Butler`s analysis of the silver market is basically correct: the COMEX silver shorts are cornered. If enough people stand for delivery, e.g., by buying into the expiring Feb silver contract, then the game is up. Silver will blow out, and interest in gold will then explode to levels that even central bank sales cannot suppress. If that happens, a global panic out of fiat money and into gold and silver becomes a realistic possibility.

The implication:

It may yet be possible to bring down the fiat money system b…

Mitchell Jones

Yep, silver "goes first".........so what if it gets a little… {chuckle}.

And the Chinese believe they`ve secured their 05 physical silver inventory by buying options for the majority of the 05 production? Too funny!!

These bureaucratic central planning bunglers couldn`t be much more pathetic as they simply add fuel to the fire with their CRIMEX rule changes. How original!

It just goes to show how far behind the curve they ALL are w…

If YOU want physical silver ya might just speed up the securing process. Now, EVERYONE Is on notice:

1. CRIMEX has been found out.

2. The regulatory authorities…

Folks, we`re approaching end game. What will this reckless gang of artificial price setters do next?

By the way, one should be most aware that it was US citizen silver that has been squandered over the decades by these blokes. National Treasure.....kaput. They`ve trashed much of what should be considered precious to American citizens, not just our markets.

Rusty

Morning Bill

Really sick of this completely obvious manipulation. It appears we do not have real markets anymore, just a series of endless choreographed interventions. How low can the PPT go? Something tells me we`re going to find out.

CPI is terrible, even considering it`s neutered by design. And the US$ rallies strongly just before and on the news? Now I see why the PPI has been conveniently buried somewhere: as a leading indicator it is undoubtedly veering from the "economic recovery" script. There is no independent analysis of these charades in mass media anymore.

Seems the laws are just not enforced against the PTB. Oh well, how does the saying go:
Steal a little and they throw you in jail, steal a lot and they make you king.

Thank goodness for you and the Cafe.
Just venting, but thanks for reading/listening.

Tom Kirsling

Dear Sirs,

I have been keenly watching your ongoing crusade against the manipulation of the silver, and to a lesser extent, the gold markets. You are indeed the three horsemen of precious metals. We, the small investors are your infantry.

I would also suggest that to overrun the seemlingly cowardly manipulatos that are tearing apart these markets, that you invoke higher powers. Besides the numerous losses that mining companies have had to stomach, the profits currently being denied to them, their shareholders and the owners of PMs, governments are losing out on much needed revenues. Countries such as Argentina, Peru, Chile, Canada, Mexico, Bolivia, Philippines, China and Australia would want an iron-clad explanation from the officials at the NYMEX/COMEX as to why their citizens are being denied wealth that is legally theirs for the sake of a cartel of traders.

Thus, my suggestion, if it hasn`t being tried out before, is that the Ministers of Trade and Industry in these countries be enjoined in this crusade. I suggest that they be made aware of the situation at the COMEX, their revenues lost accruing 15 years, and the steps they can take to end it.

Just yesterday, the conclusion of a summit of top trade negotiators from the US, Europe and Africa, held in Kenyan port city of Mombasa saw the two former powers loosen on key issues that led to the collapse on the Cancun talks. Indeed, the growing voice of developing countries jostling to have a piece of the global economic cake has just begun yielding fruit. If the Ministers of some of the aggrieved countries add their voices to the chorus to free silver and gold, the COMEX or CFTC officials will be hard put to maintain the status quo.

Kinuthia Karanja,

KENYA.

Bill

Have made a habit over the past month or so of reading the online version of one of the Chinese daily newspapers. Lots of neat stuff. On the front page yesterday there was story about the lack of cohesion between G-7 members where currency valuations were concerned. Not a mention anywhere about them being any part of the problem or potential solution though-but don`t tell John Snow or you`ll ruin his day.

Did you know that the Chinese are going to build satellite c…

If the clowns at the Comex really think an increase in margins is gonna solve their problems they better think again. I can envision a day when the Chinese go the Comex like we go to Home Depot-I`ll have 500 coppers, 800 silvers and if there`s room on the back of the truck, throw on a couple hundred gold.

Interestingly, a bit from today`s front page news was an article about the US government distorting scientific facts to serve their policy purposes. If only they knew?

Best

Rob


Derek Van Artsdalen from San Antonio:

Good afternoon, Bill:

Here`s a quick update on the South African Rand situation.



Notice that the series of lower highs and lower lows is still intact, as the most recent peak in the Rand`s value created a third point of resistance in the still-forming symmetrical triangle (see green circled portion). The downsloping upper trendline (shown in red) is still in charge, but the uptrend line (in blue) is also still intact. Note also that the MACD and RSI indicators are losing steam over the past few weeks (see purple lines).

As mentioned previously in the Cafe, this formation looks due for resolution before the end of April. This situation is weighing heavily on the minds of those involved with South African resource companies, as well as those who are invested in them. Despite the Rand`s relative weakness today, the general mining sector slaughter took its toll on just about everything, including the South Africans.

For what it`s worth, I contacted the Cafe`s resident astrologer, Mahendra, yesterday. You may recall that I interviewed Mahendra back in the fall of 2002. I asked him yesterday to give me his take on where the Rand is headed this year. He told me that he expects

"the Rand to start weakening any time now."

While I certainly don`t base my investments on astrology, I do allow for the fact that in a holographic universe all things are connected. Moreover, Mahendra, despite his
sometimes disastrous short-term predictions in the gold and silver markets, has generally gotten the long view nailed pretty well. The next few weeks should give us the answer we`re seeking about the Rand and its prospects this year.
Derek

Hello Bill,

Attached you will find Rich`s concluding thoughts on our South Africa trip.

Best regards,

Eric R. Radez

Investment Representative
David A. Noyes & Co.

Dear Bill,

Durban Deep property visit:

For the old guys, these are the Blyvoor, Buffelsfontein and Harteebestfontein Mines. We visited the Hartee Shaft. In the locker room they gave us new underwear, socks , boots, one piece overalls, knee pads, goggles, gloves, hard hats, hat mounted lighting, and power source utility belt. I did not take off my t-shirt unlike everyone else, my first big mistake. After entering the elevator, it took at least 40 minutes to get to the drilling zone. We traveled on elevators, trains, stairs, ladders, and at times on hands and knees. We were then at 1.2 miles beneath the Earth’s surface. Geothermal heat made the conditions almost unbearable. My son Eric looked at me and said "Dad you don’t look very good". I said "I feel like crap". I hoped my 283rd mining property visit was not going to be my last! I had not felt this bad since Placer County Search and Rescue pulled me out of the Western States 100 Mile mountain trail run. Mining personnel gave me liquids, stripped me to my waist, poured water over me and took me to a fresh air outlet. They assisted me to a medical cart that took me to the main shaft elevator. A doctor on the surface took my vitals and later released me.

This is why Gold is the only real store of value in the world today; it’s like trying to find a needle in a haystack. It is difficult to mine, and is of limited supply. Finding this out damn near killed me.

These Durban Properties employ 13,000 people. It is not an exploration company with 4 drill holes in the ground. It has a hospital, school, mine training center, stores, three restaurants, soccer fields, world class weight room, single family homes, dormitories, child care, and a security force of 140. A DROOY employee gets free room, three meals per day 7 days a week, and free medical care. His family must pay a nominal fee. He pays 1% union dues. Doctors are working directly with the ladies of the night. All the South African companies do this and are leaders in employee relations in Africa. We visited Soweto. During my entire 10 day visit, everyone was friendly and the food was great. What a beautiful part of the world.

Why is DROOY a buy?

The stock is very cheap in relation to other gold stocks.
The Blyvoor Shaft has a zero mine life when DROOY took it over. The present mine life is 22 years.

DROOY continues to increase mine life, margins, and ounces.
…

By the way, I called the bottom of this company in my last Radez Alternative Investment Report. When I got into the business in 1976 the first stock I bought for my first client was Modderfonteine at $.70, it went to $23.00. DROOY owns Modder now.

Over and Out from South Africa

Rich Radez

[e-mail]

Indaba Gold Conference Cape Town South Africa.

David Hale, economist:

Lower interest rates around the world coupled with the US encouraging dollar devaluation, and 2.5 million jobs lost will be a major hurdle for Bush. We have not seen this bad of a job market since the last Great Depression when Hoover lost 8 million jobs. Every recent president has outperformed Bush.

Carter created 10 million jobs, Bush Senior 2.8 million jobs. Last year dollar intervention was the highest in history. 180 billion dollars spent by Japan, 100 billion by China, and 30 billion by Taiwan. We now have a two tier dollar. First tier will depreciate 15% against the Euro. The second tier will be stable in Asia. China will be a dominant factor in commodity prices for the years to come. China has recently purchased a copper mine in New Guinea and an iron ore property in Africa. The market cap of Chinese steel stocks are 4 times the US market cap of steel stocks. Chinese foreign policy could shape the direction of the world. China now has 4 thousand troops in the Sudan to protect their oil interests. Outlook for Africa, modest growth of 3.2%, important political decisions ahead. 13 separate African elections this year.

Critical Issues:

Government policy towards mining companies.
South African j…

The Rand is now the biggest currency market in the world. It has become a "casino chip". Huge carry trade with Hedge Funds. This could take the Rand to 12 overnight.

America currently gets ¼ of its oil from West Africa. The US is planning to build bases in West Africa. If Kerry is elected, for the first time in history the First Lady will have descendents from Africa.
Rich Radez

The gold shares were hit hard with the XAU dropping 2.69 to 97.55. The HUI bounced off 220 support, but still dropped 7.53 to 222.30.

Looks like we will need silver to lead us out of the wilderness, which is just what I expect to happen.

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT![/u]

[ThaiGuru]

Instead of a cycle low for gold in 2009 it would actually make more sense to us, based on the way things currently stand, if 2009 turned out to be a cycle high. This would, for example, allow the gold cycle to mesh with the US$ cycle illustrated on the below chart. The chart, by the way, shows the number of US Dollars per Swiss Franc and uses an inverted scale in order to highlight the Dollar`s long-term downward trend. We`ve also attempted to illustrate that the US$ has, since the beginning of the 1970s, experienced two declines of 8-10 years and two counter-trend moves lasting 5-6 years. A continuation of this pattern would, therefore, result in a major dollar low near the channel bottom during 2008-2010.




http://www.speculative-investor.com/

[ThaiGuru]

Since the mid 1970s gold has made a cycle low every 8 years (+/- a couple of months) beginning in 1977 and a cycle high every 8 years beginning in 1980 (a chart showing these cycles is included below). So, if this cyclical pattern continues then the next major low will occur in 2009 and an important high will occur during the first half of this year.



http://www.speculative-investor.com/

[niemandweiss]

Moin Thai

Langsam sollte die Volatilität und deren Unberechenbarkeit bei Gold, aus welchen Gründen auch immer, nicht mehr die Sprache verschlagen.

Wer obendrein noch mit Hebelprodukten agiert, sollte sich erst recht über dessen Auswirkungen bewusst sein. Da hab ich auch kein Mitleid mit mir jetzt.

Aber heftig war es schon gestern, wenigstens haben meine Scheine das überlebt !!!

Fazit: Entweder man glaubt an Gold, Rohstoffsektor überhaupt oder nicht. Die Richtung stimmt. Meine Einstellung dazu ist unverändert. Einziges Hilfswerkzeug für Trader Charttechnik.

[ulfur]

Aber die Charttechnik hat den Crash auch nicht vorhergesehen.

[niemandweiss]

Ulfur, abweging war diese Korrektur nicht, nachdem der Euro den letzten Aufwärtstrenskanal verlassen hat.

Euro nach wie vor Leithammel


Quelle: http://www.arando.de/forum/showthread.php3?t=11544&page=43&p…

[ThaiGuru]

@niemandweiss

Wir kennen uns jetzt seit ca. Frühsommer 2002, als Du das Pech hattes gerade auf einem Zwischenhoch in Gold Minen einzusteigen, um danach zusehen zu müssen wie Deine Aktien bei der damaligen "Korrektur" vorübergehend happig an Wert verloren.

Du warst damals begreiflicher Weise als Neueinsteiger sehr verunsichert, genauso wie es wohl Neueinsteigern sein werden, die gerade erst letzte Woche eingestiegen sind. Heute hast Du die Erfahrung, und das Wissen zum Goldgeschehen, und schreibst selbst den bemerkenswerten Satz

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"Entweder man glaubt an Gold, Rohstoffsektor überhaupt oder nicht."

Deine im Frühsommer 2002 gekauften Titel sind heute mit Sicherheit (ausser den SA Minen, wegen dem starken Rand) happig gestiegen, und viel mehr wert als Du sie gekauft hattest. Falls Du vom damaligen Zwischenhoch bis zum kürzlichen zwischen Hoch auch noch erfolgreich auf Grund von Deinen Chartkenntnissen traden konntest, wird sich Deine Erfolgsrechnung noch zusätzlich verbessert haben.

Ich selbst habe mit zwei Ausnahmen *VATL* und *SRLM* bei denen es nach einigen tausend Prozenten Gewinne einfach zu verlockend war Teil-Gewinne mitzunehmen, meine ursprünglich gekauften Gold, und Silber Minen Aktien allesammt noch, und habe zwischenzeitlich jede grössere Korrektur dazu verwendet meiner Brieftasche nach entsprechend zukaufen.

Nur mit einem einzigen Gold Titel vor Ort hier in Thailand trade ich. Das ist der einzige an der thailändischen Börse gehandelte (anstehende) Goldproduzent *THL*

Ich bin nach wie vor davon überzeugt, dass Gold und vor allem Silber noch massiv höher steigen, und mache mir wegen dem gestrigen Gold Abverkauf um meine Aktien überhaupt keine Sorgen.

Nur die Tatsache, dass das Gold Cabal es wieder einmal mehr geschafft hat, etwas zusätzliche Zeit zu schinden, bis wir Gold, und Silber Bugs die richtig grossen Erfolgserlebnisse haben werden, und die Gold und Silberpreise nicht nur 0.5 bis 1% pro Tag ansteigen, sondern 5 bis 10% pro Tag, und das selbst bei einem stabilen, oder steigenden Dollar, wobei ich letzteres höchstens kurzfristig für möglich halte, ärgert mich extrem.

Gruss

Thaiguru

[goreng]

Hallo Thai,
Ich halte sehr viel von Deinen sachlichen und fachlichen
Stellungnahmen!
Bitte nur um einen Tip, zu Gold Fields und Durban,
nachkaufen oder noch warten ?
Danke im voraus und noch ein schönens WE.

[ThaiGuru]

@goreng

Falls Du Deine Investition in DROOY als Langzeitanlage planst, und wie ich selbst, auch von weiter steigenden Goldpreisen ausgehst, spielt es meiner Ansicht nach eine untergeordnete Rolle ob Du bereits am nächsten Montag kaufst, oder erst die Beendigung der, wie ich überzeugt bin, manipulativen Preiskorrektur beim Gold (keine chartechnische) abwartest.

Ich muss mich leider wiederholen. Es kann wegen der tieferen Goldpreis Notierungen noch weiter runtergehen mit den SA Minen. Doch ebensogut kann am Monag Abend in den USA ein Run auf DROOY ausbrechen, falls der Dollar durch die Deviseninterventionen versch. Zentralbanken weiter an Wert gegenüber dem SA Rand gewinnt, und die Goldpreise nicht, oder nur noch wenig nachgeben sollten. Falls der Goldpreis nächste Woche schon wieder steigen sollten, zusammen mit dem Dollar, wie Mahendra prophezeit, dann sehe ich DROOY sofort wieder im grünen Bereich.

Mein persönliches Langzeit Preis-Ziel für DROOY liegt übrigens immer noch bei mindestens 50.- Dollar pro Aktie, auch auf die Gefahr hin, dass diese Aussage mir jetzt von einigen Usern wieder um den Kopf geschlagen werden dürfte.

Ich selbst würde am nächsten Montag schon kaufen.
Wichtig dabei ist, dass Du in Südafrika die orginal Aktien kaufst, und nicht die ADRs in den USA, oder anderswo.

Gruss

Thaiguru

[goreng]

Danke, ich versuchs!

[aneises2]

Hallo zusammen,

beiliegend der Link zu dem Langfristchart von DROOY, der das Potential erkennen läßt.

Gruß
aneises2

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?…

[aneises2]

Hier noch ein paar Charts zu den Randrelationen:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID…

Gruß
aneises2

[Spieler0815]

@Thaiguru & goreng
Zu Durban sei aber vielleicht in bezug auf die "echten" Aktien (also nicht die ADR) angemerkt, daß man die nun nicht unbedingt in Südafrika kaufen muß, sondern dies auch bequem hier in Deutschland (und auch mit ausreichenden Umsätzen) in Stuttgart tun kann. Nicht jeder hat ja die Möglichkeit, in Johannesburg zu ordern.
Spieler

[ThaiGuru]

@spieler0815

Danke für den Hinweis

Wusste nicht, dass man in Stuttgart auch die orginalen Durban Aktien handelt.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

@aneises2

Ist wirklich ein tollar Langzeit Chart!

[ThaiGuru]

Company Profile for Hecla Mining Company

Feb 20, 2004 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Established in 1891 in northern Idaho`s Silver Valley, Hecla Mining Company`s rich history of mining has distinguished it as a respected precious metals producer. Now headquartered in Coeur d`Alene, Idaho, this international, publicly traded company is 113 years old.

Hecla Mining Company produced a record amount of silver at i…

Hecla mines and processes silver and gold in the United States, Mexico and Venezuela. Hecla currently produces silver from three silver mines, San Sebastian, Greens Creek and Lucky Friday, as well as mining gold at the La Camorra mine. The San Sebastian mine in Mexico was once again a remarkable success story in 2003, producing 4.1 million ounces of silver and nearly 48,000 ounces of gold at an incredibly low average total cash cost per ounce of silver of negative 25 cents per ounce. Thanks to San Sebastian, Hecla was the lowest-cost primary silver producer in the U.S. and Canada. The La Camorra gold mine in Venezuela is also extremely low cost, producing 126,567 ounces at an average total cash cost of $154 per ounce of gold in 2003. Hecla`s Greens Creek mine in Alaska contributed 3.5 million ounces of silver to Hecla`s account, and the Lucky Friday mine in northern Idaho produced 2.3 million ounces of silver in 2003.

The company`s gold and silver operations continue to be low cost, with total average cash costs in 2004 estimated in the range of $185 per ounce of gold and less than $1.75 per ounce of silver. 2004 estimated production is approximately 215,000 ounces of gold and 9 million ounces of silver. Hecla has a suite of excellent exploration targets and opportunities at existing operations in Mexico, Venezuela and Nevada.

Hecla has long been well known in the United States as a major primary silver producer and quality gold producer. The name "Hecla" is commonly associated with both precious metals by investors. Hecla`s common stock trades on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol "HL."

Company: Hecla Mining Company

Headquarters Address: 6500 N Mineral Drive, Suite 200
Coeur d`Alene, Idaho 83815-9408

Main Telephone: [phone]

Website: www.hecla-mining.com

Ticker: HL(NYSE);HL-PrB(NYSE)

Type of Organization: Public

Industry: Natural Resources: Mining/Minerals

Earnings Release Dates: 1st Quarter: May 4, 2004
2nd Quarter: August 3, 2004
3rd Quarter: November 4, 2004


Key Executives: President: Phillips S. Baker, Jr.
CFO: Lewis E. Walde
Chairman: Arthur Brown

Investor Relations
Contact: Vicki Veltkamp
Phone: 208-769-4144
Email: [e-mail]

Investor Relations
Contact: Jeanne DuPont
Phone: 208-769-4177
Email: [e-mail]

SOURCE: Hecla Mining Company

Hecla Mining Company

Customize your Business Wire news & multimedia to match your needs.
Get breaking news from companies and organizations worldwide.
Logon for FREE today at www.BusinessWire.com.



http://www.newsalert.com/bin/story?StoryId=CqdwuubKbmduXyJa0…

[ThaiGuru]

European Gold Files Claim Against Tournigan Gold
Corporation

relief sought under the claim includes damages for wrongful interference with economic interests, special damages and punitive damages." target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">TORONTO, ONTARIO--European Gold Resources Inc. announces that it has filed a claim against Tournigan Gold Corporation ("Tournigan") in the Supreme Court of British Columbia. The action is for damages arising from the allegations by Tournigan that it has a claim with respect to European Gold`s Omagh property in County Tyrone, Northern Ireland In the opinion of management of European Gold, Tournigan`s claim is false, and management has so advised Tournigan on a number of occasions. The
relief sought under the claim includes damages for wrongful interference with economic interests, special damages and punitive damages.

http://www2.ccnmatthews.com/scripts/ccn-release.pl?/current/…

[ThaiGuru]

IMA EXPLORATION INC.

IMA`s Drilling Continues to Expand Silver Discovery at
Navidad


VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--IMA Exploration Inc. is pleased to announce results from drill holes 15 to 20 at the Company`s 100% owned Navidad silver discovery. Holes 15 to 20 were all drilled in the Galena Hill area of the Navidad Project where drilling is currently testing the zone between Navidad and Galena Hills.

Highlights of these holes include 113.5 g/t silver over 69.1m in hole 15 and 100.3 g/t silver over 66.5m in hole 19.

http://www2.ccnmatthews.com/scripts/ccn-release.pl?/current/…

[superman6]

Betrifft: Cambrian Mining

Herzlichen Glückwunsch Mr. Sprott. Möchten Sie
vielleicht auch noch die Investika??
Lassen sie den Kleinanlegern doch auch noch
ein paar Aktien. Danke.



The Company was notified on 20 February 2004 that Sprott Asset Management Inc, a
Toronto based institution, has purchased 2,950,000 Ordinary Shares of 20p each
in the Company over the period 9 February to 18 February 2004. These shares are
held in various investments funds managed by Sprott

[ThaiGuru]

COT Gold Report for February 20, 2004

[ThaiGuru]

[ThaiGuru]

Habe vergessen zur letzten Grafik den Titel einzusetzen!

"Gold Cot Report - Futures & Options Combined"

[ThaiGuru]

Nick Goodwin: Gold analyst, Tradek

http://m1.mny.co.za/BusToday.nsf/Current/C2256A2A0020082A422…

[ThaiGuru]

http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/4587B3FB-B039-4512-A6…



`Saudisation` of jewellery shops begins

Saturday 21 February 2004, 13:01 Makka Time, 10:01 GMT

The Saudi government has started enforcing a decision to bar foreigners from gold and jewellery shops in a move aimed at "Saudising" the retail sector to provide more jobs for nationals.

Indians and Yemenis will be hit hard by the Saudisation drive


Indians and Yemenis top the list of expatriates facing the axe in jewellery shops across the kingdom, but leading economist Ihsan abu Hulaiga said press estimates of jobs that would consequently be open to Saudis were grossly exaggerated.

Since the decision applies only to retail workers, "we`re talking of between 25,000 and 30,000 jobs to be reclaimed by Saudis", rather than figures of a quarter million or so being bandied about in some newspapers, he said.

weiter...

http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/4587B3FB-B039-4512-A6…

[ThaiGuru]

Terror alert hits $A and gold

By Richard Webb

February 22, 2004

The Australian dollar plunged by 1.7 US cents, or 2.2 per cent, in New York yesterday morning to close at 77.10 US cents as the greenback rallied on new security fears in Japan and concerns that the Japanese and European central banks were intent on selling more of their currencies.

Gold fell below $US400 ($A519) an ounce as the roaring US dollar made the precious metal more expensive for non-US buyers, while shares tumbled on Wall Street in volatile trading with investors spooked by the Japanese security threat and fresh inflation worries.

European sharemarkets finished lower, with the German sharemarket diving 1.6 per cent.

The Australian dollar got caught in a currency crossfire on Friday night as the US dollar rallied by 2 per cent against the yen and by 1.4 per cent against the euro. This followed comments from members of both the Japanese and European central banks indicating that they were intent on selling more currency to put a brake on the rise of the yen and euro against the greenback.

The Australian dollar fell in sympathy, trading as low as 76.43 US cents during the session, a fall of 2.37 US cents from its Friday close of 78.80 US cents in Australia. The local currency had hit a seven-year high of 80.05 US cents on Wednesday.

http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2004/02/21/1077072889920.h…

[ThaiGuru]

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/511303.cms

NY affects Indian gold

PTI[ SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 21, 2004 10:04:24 PM ]

MUMBAI: Gold prices plunged on the bullion market here on Saturday due to heavy selling by stockists after a steep fall in the global prices, especially in New York following a sharp rise in dollar rates.

Silver, on the other hand, managed to recover the initial losses, however closed sharply lower.

Standard gold (99.5 purity) crashed by a whopping Rs 130 per 10 gram to close at Rs 5,950 as against yesterday`s close of Rs 6,080, while pure gold (99.9 purity) nosedived by Rs 125 (rpt Rs 125) per ten gram to Rs 5990 from Rs 6,115 on Friday.

Attributing the sudden steep fall in gold prices to a sharp setback in the international prices, dealer said at the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, the most active April contract gold plummeted by $12.30 to $398 per ounce on Friday due to aggressive hedge fund and bullion bank selling spurred by sharp gains in the US dollar.

The dollar showed the steepest rally in 17 months against the yen at $ 109.04 from yesterday`s level of $107.20 after Japan `s finance ministry said it may keep selling the currency, dealers said.

The US currency also rallied against Euro to $1.2535 per Euro from $1.2716 per Euro, the biggest rally since January 16, after a member of the European Central Bank council said that the bank would sell its currency, dealers said.

[ThaiGuru]

[ThaiGuru]

[ThaiGuru]

Gold Retest #2

By: Brady Willett, Fall Street, FallStreet.com

Dollar Logs Biggest Weekly Gain versus the Yen in 5-years


http://news.goldseek.com/FallStreet/1077477255.php

[ThaiGuru]

http://news.goldseek.com/MillenniumWaveAdvisors/1077456813.p…

Barbarians at the Fed

By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors



The Sounds From My Worry Closet
The Stubborn Trade Deficit
T…

weiter....

http://news.goldseek.com/MillenniumWaveAdvisors/1077456813.p…

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.jsmineset.com/home.asp

Intervention Triggers Massive Short Covering

Author: Jim Sinclair/Dan Norcini

Even the Central Bankers Were Surprised!

If you think today was anticipated anywhere, you are kidding yourself. The bottom line for today’s action in the yen, euro, gold and all associated items was the funds flow from Japanese intervention by selling borrowed yen for dollars which was then injected directly and massively into the US economy via the New York Federal Reserve bond-trading desk.

The Japanese sell yen for dollars and send the dollars to the New York Federal Reserve by instant electronic transfer. These dollars are then invested by the New York Fed in the US bond market across all maturities, not by debiting their member banks accounts at the Fed but rather by open market purchase of all sellers. That is the nuclear difference in a non-traditional tool.

The liquefying effect is the exact same mechanism that is used when increased money supply feeds into the US economy with this one delicate but nuclear difference. That difference is that when it is money supply injected into the US economy by traditional means, it goes into only the commercial banking system. That would not do the job today because the commercial banks have lost their positions as primary lenders to the Hi-Techs of the world. GM owns the mortgage company Ditech, and would not benefit directly and immediately in a massive way by the standard traditional method of increasing liquidity.

Enter our now non-traditional Japanese friends. By the New Y…

The non-traditional Japanese electronic bank shot is the best possible way to liquefy the new Internet-based lending system. Housing is booming now because in hot areas you can borrow 100% of the cost of the house you want to buy if your credit is above water. Yes, 100%. You need only get a copy of the Robb Report to see the 100% mortgage adds looking for big earners.

What triggered this stampede today was the over crowded long…

In order to stop a decline in the US market the Federal Reserve managed a preemptive liquefying of the system. This is an act usually done to stop a precipitous decline in equity values but was done ahead of that possibility. The Fed, ECB and BOJ were shocked by the market reaction.

Today is the beginning of volatility never before witnessed …

Think about the following:

The US market was off today in terms of the Dow by 100 points around mid afternoon. In six minutes yesterday, the equity market dropped 100 points within a very short period of time. The NASDAQ was off 22 at the same time. Selling of US securities is not what makes the US dollar go up. Yet, illogically at that time there was a major rally in the US dollar.

The ultimate tool to offset a decline in the value of equities is to provide liquidity directly into the entire economic system much like adrenaline is injected directly into the heart of an expiring patient in the emergency ward. It is called the Japanese bank shot!

The inviting conclusion is that the rally in the US dollar was this time a reflection of the decline in the euro and yen coming out of massive yen intervention that triggered massive long liquidation. Note that last night the euro was rising in Asia as the yen declined which was STRANGE. New less knowledgeable but huge speculators hit the panic button when the yen leaped and hammered the euro plus covered dollar shorts of all forms including long gold.

And now for a quick synopsis of today’s events:

The reason all this started was a decision within the Federal Reserve management to liquefy the system as a preemptive strategy due to the last six days of negative equity market price action and the implication of an equity market that begins to throw off good economic statistics rather than rise. Clearly the Fed is on the side of the incumbent. That implies that whatever is needed will be done to provide the incumbent with a bullish equity market. The cost of doing this is beyond your wildest imagination in its implications for the future. As Mr. Russell the wisest 92 year old on this planet today said,

“Welcome it, as it is an opportunity to own cheap gold.”

The magnitude was simply the result of massive anti-dollar positions going for cover as technical systems called for that. Last month alone the long position in yen grew by a minimum of $72 billion and much of it panicked at the same time.

The duration of this will be that of any short cover when fundamentals scream the opposite. The duration of this is defined in the cost of intervention and the outrageous implications of an inflationary nature.

Today will be one of the days that will be reviewed for years by academics seeking to understand the magnitude of the currency fluctuations. The answer is simply that the shorting of the dollar got so overcrowded that it corrected itself - practically speaking - all in one session.

Conclusion:

Stay the course. Get rid of margin only. It is going to get …

[Spieler0815]

@Thaiguru bzgl. Durban

Wollte eben noch die WPKN zu den echten Durban in Stuttgart nachliefern:

WPKN 855454
--------------------
Und hier mal die Umsätze der letzten Tage, natürlich nicht sehr sehr viel, aber ich denke für den normalen Anleger reicht es, natürlich limitieren.
Datum Erster Hoch Tief Letzter Umsatz
20.02.2004 2,71 2,71 2,70 2,70 2.5k
19.02.2004 2,80 2,80 2,74 2,74 10.5k
18.02.2004 2,90 2,90 2,80 2,80 7.0k
17.02.2004 2,77 2,88 2,77 2,80 2.0k
16.02.2004 2,75 2,80 2,75 2,75 2.6k
13.02.2004 2,90 2,95 2,80 2,80 9.4k
12.02.2004 2,85 2,95 2,85 2,91 3.8k
11.02.2004 2,84 2,84 2,80 2,80 2.0k
10.02.2004 2,99 3,02 2,90 2,90 24.3k
09.02.2004 2,82 2,94 2,82 2,94 3.7k
06.02.2004 2,64 2,74 2,64 2,74 2.0k
05.02.2004 2,72 2,72 2,62 2,65 4.6k
04.02.2004 2,75 2,80 2,71 2,71 5.8k
03.02.2004 2,70 2,79 2,70 2,79 4.0k
02.02.2004 2,85 2,85 2,65 2,65 19.9k
30.01.2004 2,75 2,75 2,75 2,75 0
29.01.2004 2,90 2,90 2,75 2,75 7.4k
28.01.2004 2,88 2,95 2,88 2,95 2.0k
27.01.2004 2,82 2,90 2,82 2,85 1.1k

[ulfur]

Warum ziehen so viele Anleger die ADR´s den echten Aktien vor?
Außer der Liquidität fällt mir kein Grund ein.

[einmalpleitereicht]

@ufur


das spiel mit den feuer ....


nein also ich halte die dis. auch für übertrieben.

es geht darum, dass wenn der grosse bäng kommt gold steigt und reienweise die banken hops gehen....

Da die durban-auslands-stücke ADR bei der bank of america verbrieft sind, sind die aktien futsch, wenn díe bank den bach runter geht.

ich denke jedoch, dass dann auch schon alles egal ist .....

aber immerhin das (rest)risiko nicht einzugehen kostet fast nichts, das beide papiere in stuttgart ca zum selben kurs zu haben sind

also leute kauft die originalen stücke in stuttgart.

lasst euch, wenn ihr die andern schon habt, aber nicht beunruhigen...

[superman6]

Deshalb denkt an den physischen Goldkauf.

ADR`s sind auf jeden Fall die schlechtere Alternative.

[Spieler0815]

@ufur:
http://www.goldseiten.de/ansichten/siegel-04.htm
Siegel schildert in seiner neuesten Ausgabe des GM außerdem einen neuen Skandal bzgl. der ADR.
Und ganz nebenbei aus eigener Erfahrung, als ich noch GFI in beiden Formen hatte:
Die Dividende kommt bei den ADRs WOCHEN oder Monate später und ist um ca. 10 Prozent (bei GFI)gekürzt...

[EAW]

Es wird Spannend an der Börse.
Die Haltemarken liegen sehr knapp.
s.Grafik
http://www.wallstreet-online.de/ws/community/board/threadpag…

[steuer_inc.]

@Spieler:

Sicherlich sind die Originale den ADR`s vorzuziehen - stimme Dir da komplett zu. Doch das `ausreichende` Volumen dieser Urban Original-Aktien in Stuttgart ist m.E. alles andere als `ausreichend`. Da werden im Schnitt vielleicht 5.000 Aktien por Tag (!!) gehandelt, was einem Gegenwert von gerade mal ca. 12.500 Euro entspricht. Wer Geld vor Entwertung schuetzen moechte und die inflationaeren Tendenzen der Weltwaehrungen erkennt, duerfte ohne Weiteres alleine schon fuer 12.500 Euro Durban kaufen wollen. Mir z.B. scheint es nicht moeglich den gewuenschten Betrag in Urban in Stuttgart zu investieren. Duerfte m.E. nur fuer Anleger mit Investitionsvorstellungen von <5000 Euro interessant sein.

Gruss.

P.S.: Ich selber habe bisher ausschliesslich in physisches Gold investiert, was ich auch nachwievor als das Basisinvestment schlechthin ansehe. Nun ueberlege ich, evtl. 10-20% der Summe, die ich in physisches Gold investiert habe, nocheinmal zusaetzlich in Goldaktien zu stecken, da m.E. bei einem rasanten Goldpreisanstieg das weltweit in Massen vorhandene Kapital immer zuerst seinen Weg in liquide Aktien finden wird und somit dort zumindest schnellere Gewinne zu erzielen sein duerften. Koennte mir jemand einen groben Ueberblick solcher Minenaktien geben? Bevorzugterweise ueberwiegend Silber- und Goldabbau, geringe bis keine Hedgeing Aktivitaeten, ueberwiegend Marktfuehrer.

Danke.

[calisto]

@steuer_inc

hier eine Liste mit Silberminen

Silver Stocks--Comparative Valuations Weekly #23


http://www.bibleprophesy.org/goldismoney/SS23.html

gruss
calisto

[ThaiGuru]

[ThaiGuru]

[ThaiGuru]

[ThaiGuru]

[ThaiGuru]

Gold



Silber:



Dollar:



DOW:

[ThaiGuru]

Sehr schöner Zeitbeleg dafür, was ich den Lesern hier im Thread schon lange klarmachen will.

Das Gold Kartell kann den "Krieg" gegen das Gold nur gewinne…

Nun wird mit Hochdruck versucht die (intelligenten) Inder davon zu überzeugen, dass sie, genau so kurzsichtig und naiv wie die Amerikaner, Europäer, etc., ihr Gold auch nur noch auf dem Papier kaufen sollen.

Einige wenige Inder werden wohl auf diesen Eva Apfel reinfal…

Oder kann sich hier jemand eine indische Braut vorstellen, die sich Papier Gold Zertifikate um den Hals hängt?

Gruss

ThaiGuru





http://www.business-standard.com/today/story.asp?Menu=21&sto…

Paper gold scheme on the cards

Sangita Shah in Mumbai

Published : February 23, 2004

The government is planning to launch a new gold deposit scheme, which will not only curb the demand for physical gold but also satisfy the needs of investors who prefer gold as a natural hedge against unforeseen circumstances.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is studying the proposal, wh…

Investors in the scheme will be given certificates, indicating the ownership of the amount of physical gold they have paid for. These certificates will be tradable on the commodity exchanges.

Therefore, investors can buy and sell the commodity without incurring the associated transaction and storage costs.

[ThaiGuru]

China sells 11,717 prospecting, mining rights in 2003

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2004-02/23/content_1327740…

[ThaiGuru]

China steps up management of mineral exploration, mining operation

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2004-02/23/content_1327764…

[ThaiGuru]

Today`s News

Silver Stocks Rose 314% in 2003, Reports GoldIsMoney.com


http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=104&STORY=…

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.reuters.com/locales/newsArticle.jsp?type=business…

23 Feb 2004 08:29

Gold price fall in India spurs wedding buying

NEW DELHI (Reuters) - Gold imports by India, the world`s largest buyer, picked up over the weekend helped by a fall in prices during the Hindu marriage season, traders said on Monday.

Jewellers and investors, who had held back purchases over the past two weeks ago because of a sudden rise in prices, stepped up bullion buying after gold prices fell below $400 an ounce.

Spot gold fell to $394.25 on Friday, its lowest level since February 7. The yellow metal was quoted at $399.00/9.75 an ounce at 0721 GMT on Monday.

"We have had a busy weekend, there was a lot of buying and e… said Rajesh Khosla, a New Delhi-based dealer.

In Ahmedabad 600 kg of gold was being traded every day, up from 200-300 kg two weeks ago.

"The current rate of less than $400 an ounce is very attract… Pawan Chokshi, a leading trader said from Ahmedabad.

In Bombay, buying increased to 500 kg from 300 kg two weeks ago.

"Our demand will continue to remain bullish as along as pric… Suresh Hundia, president of the Bombay Bullion Association, said.

Domestic prices follow global trends because of dependence on imports, with India buying an average 1.6 tonnes of gold a day to meet more than two-thirds of its annual needs of about 800 tonnes.

Traders said India`s seasonal demand will continue until the end of the Hindu marriage season in March.

Bullion demand in India picks up in September at the beginning of the festival and marriage season and peaks in October and November during Diwali.

Hindu parents gift gold jewellery to brides for financial security.

[ThaiGuru]

FEBRUARY 23, 2004 - 09:30 ET

Bullion River Gold Corp.: Acquisition of Thomas Creek
Project


http://www2.ccnmatthews.com/scripts/ccn-release.pl?/current/…

[ThaiGuru]

February 23, 2004 09:01

Teryl Resources Announces Drilling Program to Commence at West Ridge Gold Prospect, Fairbanks, Alaska


http://www.newsalert.com/bin/story?StoryId=CqdMi0bKbmdu0yJeX…

[ThaiGuru]

Silver Standard Expands Cordon Colorado and Intersects New Zone at La Pitarrilla in Mexico

http://www2.ccnmatthews.com/scripts/ccn-release.pl?/current/…

[ThaiGuru]

Dundee Precious Metals Raises $60 Million On Exercise Of
Warrants



http://www2.ccnmatthews.com/scripts/ccn-release.pl?/current/…

[ThaiGuru]

Sabina Resources to acquire zinc-silver deposit from Teck-Cominco unit

01:43 PM EST Feb 23


http://www.cbc.ca/cp/business/040223/b022330.html

[ThaiGuru]

The Fed`s Policy: Punish Savers and Rob the Retired


http://news.goldseek.com/SFG/1077564153.php

[ThaiGuru]

February 23, 2004 09:08

AGDM Board Approves Share Exchange Agreement for Platinum Works, Inc.


http://www.newsalert.com/bin/story?StoryId=CqdMi0eSbmdqWnJm0…

[ThaiGuru]

February 23, 2004

Cardero Resources Has Built Itself Quite A Fan Club Over the Past Year.

When Cardero Resources presented at our 8th Minesite Mining …

weiter...

http://www.minesite.com/archives/features_archive/2004/feb-2…

[ThaiGuru]

February 23, 2004 08:02 AM US Eastern Timezone

Hecla Announces Preliminary Results of Exchange Offer for Preferred Stock

COEUR D`ALENE, Idaho--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Feb. 23, 2004--Hecla Mining Company (NYSE:HL) today announced the preliminary results of its offer to holders of its Series B Cumulative Convertible Preferred stock to exchange each of their preferred shares for 7.94 shares of Hecla common stock. The offer expired at 12:00 Midnight, New York City time, on February 20, 2004.

Based on a preliminary count, approximately 274,000 shares were tendered and not withdrawn, of which approximately 3,500 were tendered pursuant to notices of guaranteed delivery. Hecla will accept all of the properly tendered shares. Delivery of shares of Hecla common stock in exchange for accepted shares will be made over the next few days by American Stock Transfer & Trust Company, the Exchange Agent.

Hecla commenced the offer on January 9, 2004, at which time there were 464,777 shares of Series B Cumulative Convertible Preferred stock issued and outstanding. As a result of the completion of the exchange offer, Hecla expects to have approximately 191,000 shares of Series B Cumulative Convertible Preferred stock issued and outstanding as of the time immediately following issuance of the exchanged common shares. As a result of the exchange, the outstanding shares of common stock will increase from approximately 115 million to approximately 117 million. Based on the preliminary count, Hecla will be required to take a one-time noncash dividend charge against earnings in the first quarter in the amount of approximately $9.6 million as a result of the tender offer. Accounting principles require the disclosure and presentation on the income statement of the fair market value of the additional shares exchanged above the original exchange ratio of 3.2 shares of common stock for each share of Preferred B stock. This dividend is noncash and does not impact the total equity on the company`s balance sheet.

Hecla Mining Company, headquartered in Coeur d`Alene, Idaho, mines and processes silver and gold in the United States, Venezuela and Mexico. A 113-year-old company, Hecla has long been well known in the mining world and financial markets as a quality silver and gold producer. Hecla`s common and preferred shares are traded on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbols HL and HL-PrB.

Hecla`s Home Page can be accessed on the Internet at: http://www.hecla-mining.com


http://home.businesswire.com/portal/site/google/index.jsp?nd…

[ThaiGuru]

Exploration dries up in mines boom

By Michael Weir

MINING companies may be reaping the rewards of soaring commodity prices but the current resources boom is yet to flow through to the exploration sector, according to junior companies.

Company leaders said exploration spending continued to wallow at record lows, around half the peak of seven years ago and new discoveries were needed to cement the boom status.

weiter

http://www.thewest.com.au/20040223/business/tw-business-home…

[ThaiGuru]

23/02/04 By: Andrew Nelson

Kingsgate mines less gold, but returns more brass



Kingsgate Consolidated Limited (KCN) today reported a net profit after tax of $16.7 million for the half year ended 31 December 2003. The result exceeded the company’s expectations and was favourable impacted by positive contributions from the discovery and mining of the Prospect H extension and a higher gold price.

While figures may have “exceeded expectations”, the result compares to $24.1 million in the previous corresponding period. The financial results were reported to have been unfavourable impacted by the appreciation of the A$ against the US$.

Revenue of $36.4 million reflects reduced gold production that was sold at a higher US$ gold price per ounce of US$385, as opposed to US$320 in 2002. Unit cash costs per ounce increased fromUS$77 to US$120 per ounce, reflecting the lower grade treated and the higher waste/ore strip ratio in the pits.

weiter....

http://www.egoli.com.au/egoli/egoliNewsViewsPage.asp?PageID=…

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.swissinfo.org/sde/swissinfo.html?siteSect=143&sid…

23. Februar 2004 04:54

Pentagon hält Umweltschäden für schlimmer als Terrorismus

LONDON - Eine geheime Studie des US-Verteidigungsministerium kommt nach einem Pressebericht zu dem Schluss, dass Klimaveränderungen weitaus grössere Gefahren bergen als der internationale Terrorismus.

«Rasche Klimaveränderungen» könnten die Welt an den Rand der Anarchie bringen, weil betroffene Staaten ihre schwindenden Nahrungs-, Wasser- und Energiereserven möglicherweise mit nuklearer Aufrüstung zu verteidigen versuchten, zitierte die britische Zeitung «The Observer» am Sonntag aus der Studie.

Klimaveränderungen müssten «umgehend» zu einem herausragenden Thema für Politik und Militär werden, weil «Spaltungen und Konflikte» sonst erneut zu den beherrschenden Problemfeldern der Menschheit zu werden drohten.

So sei es «wahrscheinlich», dass es beispielsweise in Grossb…

Mit der Studie vertraute Experten sagten der Zeitung, die Gefahren des Klimawandels für die weltweite Stabilität überträfen «bei weitem die des Terrorismus». Gemäss dem Blatt wurde der seit vier Monaten fertige Bericht bislang geheim gehalten, ehe er der Zeitung zugespielt wurde. Die Untersuchung wurde den Angaben nach von einem Berater des US-Geheimdienstes CIA und einem Unternehmensberater verfasst. 230450 feb 04


SDA-ATS

[ThaiGuru]

Treasury Secretary Appoints Three New Members To Citizens Coinage Advisory Committee

New Members Complete Committee

http://www.usmint.gov/pressroom/index.cfm?flash=no&action=pr…

[ThaiGuru]

[ThaiGuru]

[ThaiGuru]

[ThaiGuru]

[ThaiGuru]

[ThaiGuru]

[ThaiGuru]

[ThaiGuru]

[ThaiGuru]

[ThaiGuru]

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

February 23 - Gold $398.20 up $1 - Silver $6.46 down 3 cents

More Evidence of Tight Silver Supply

Create a vision and never let the environment, other people`… Tony Robbins

GO GATA!!!!!!!

After a liquidation like we had on Friday, the precious metals are the most predicable of markets. They are NEVER allowed to go right back up, regardless of outside market influences. Today was no exception. There never are any. It was as if The Gold Cartel, with the aid of technically induced fund selling, put a "Do Not Pass Go" sign at $400. Each time gold looked like it was going to take out that magic number, it was whacked.

Gold only liquidated 3297 contracts to 243,865 on Friday’s steep move down, indicating significant cabal selling to aid the price collapse. However, the open interest should have contracted a good deal more today.

The silver open interest dropped 1421 to 117,802. The funds probably dumped more today as silver dropped 12 cents right off the bat due to spec featured margin liquidations before bouncing back. Mega silver shorts AIG and Morgan Stanley were also featured sellers. Wonder who was doing the buying?

Important commodities are weathering any hedge fund selling very nicely. The CRB moved up about a point, led by soybeans ($9.11 ½ cents per bushel, up 18 ½ cents) and wheat ($391, up 19 ½ cents per bushel). Oil and copper were steady.

More anecdotal evidence of very tight silver supply. This internet post includes feedback from ECU Silver CEO Michel Roy. It is very telling and fits in with what else I am hearing on silver:

Silver Supply and ECU

The following is a re-post from the ECU Silver board at Stockhouse Canada. ECU is a producing silver company in Mexico run by Michel Roy. This is from the horse`s mouth (on-site in Mexico) and is very interesting:

Quote SUBJECT:

Bombshell Posted By: Zest

Post Time: 2/20/04 11:44

To those who don`t fully believe that the supply/demand situation for silver is nearing critical mass, check this out.

I have been discussing with Michel Roy a possible partnership to produce and market 100 oz. silver bars. ECU currently sells its output in the form of concentrate (30-70% pure) to Penoles, a Mexican company which happens to be the world`s largest producer of refined silver.

We know that Penoles can produce 1000 oz bars which are certified "Good Delivery" by the LBMA. The question was whether they could produce 100 oz bars. So Michel talked to them about purchasing some of these, then had the following to report:

Hi Xxxxxxx,

What a week!!! I was out of touch for two days and got back to a buried desk, a crazy market and everything else.

I think we shall have to delay our ideas for a little while.…

It is interesting to see that the world largest producer of refined silver cannot deliver 1,000,000 ounces readily, considering their inventories.

Michel UnQuote

-END-

Only a week to go before we will get some idea how much pres…

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com


The John Brimelow Report

Bears rejoice too soon?

Monday, February 23, 2004

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $7.05, PM $6.74, with world gold at $398.50 and $399.50. Well above legal import point. Reuters has a supporting story from New Delhi:

"Jewellers and investors…stepped up bullion buying after gol…

(JB emphasis)

With the world’s largest single physical buyer so active, it is difficult to share the pessimism of US-centric technically-oriented observers. There has never been any sign of satiation of Indian buyers at a price level at which they are prepared to buy: the longer the price stays at a buying level, the more they buy.

TOCOM exhibited some modest signs of gold appetite. Open interest rose the equivalent of 1,468 Comex lots on volume 170% above Friday’s, equal to 47,451 Comex. An early attempt to sell gold down was defeated: the active contract closed down 15 yen, but $US gold went out $1.75 above the NY close. An advance report of the Japanese January imports suggests imports of 6.948 tonnes: a far cry from the 15-20 tonnes frequent in the boom years but maybe 50% above the recent average. This fits with gold seeing a two year low in yen terms in January. (On Friday in NY, gold traded 87,744 contracts; open interest was down 3,297 lots.)

Friday’s gold price action deserves to be remembered. It was not a reflexive response to the rally in the dollar. As noted on Friday, gold was down nearly twice as much as the dollar index move warranted. Standard London records some oddities:

January CPI rose 0.5% versus 0.2% in December, perversely sparked a wave of selling with heavy Fund liquidation evident once key support at $404 had been broken…On the charts the close below the 100 day moving average at $399.50 was technically damaging but the recent choppy trading rather than trending markets have made chart watching a less than exact science."

Refco Research, which had adroitly extricated itself from its profitable long trade by Thursday evening, notes:

"From open on the COMEX, gold futures remained under intense…

All this activity has had a considerable impact on the posture of the market. UBS says they:

"estimate that the net long position is probably between 10 …

e.g. down some 40% from the mid January high, and bravely add:

"We remain positively disposed towards gold with a one-month…

A considerable amount of US/Financial market euphoria seems to have broken out. One observes Don Hays, an unswerving US triumphalist, posting a chart today in order to gloat over the importance of gold not breaking out of the 15 year top formation, and the irritated remark of Bianco Research about an article brushing aside signs of price instability:

Comment - Analysis like that above highlight the current mentality in the markets - inflation is dead forever. What is more, higher energy prices are not inflationary, but rather a "tax" on the economy (something that slows growth but doesn`t cause inflation). Now that higher energy prices might be seeping into household necessities (high core inflation), inflation is still not a problem.

If higher energy prices are not inflationary and, if higher energy prices seeping into household necessities is not inflationary, then why even have energy in the CPI? By following the financial press, one gets the impression there is no possible set of variables within the CPI index that will ever signal inflation is coming back again.

Meanwhile, gold goes up, the dollar sinks, stocks that benefit from a rising in inflation were up 50% last year. TIPS handily outperform nominals.

Sure glad there is no inflation and, therefore, no investment opportunity betting on its return.
(Bianco emphasis)

Just like three weeks ago, the Bears have expended a prodigi…

JB

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The DOG is really barking up a storm. It was weak all day and fell to 2007, down 30.

DOG daily:

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/ND/34

DOG weekly:

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/ND/W

As we have seen for a year now, the DOW bounced back to close little changed at 10,609, down only 9. Most of the stock indexes have broken down, or in the process of doing so. Not the easily manipulated DOW!

The yen rose sharply to 108.36, while the euro rose a tad to 125.50, up .43, and the dollar fell .23 to 87.17. As a result of the cabal price-rigging operation, gold continues to under-perform vis-à-vis the foreign currencies.

GATA’s Mike Bolser:

Hi Bill:

The Fed added another $3.25 Billion in temporary repurchase agreements today, an action that brought the repo pool down to $29.09 Billion (Friday`s pool total was erroneously reported).

We now see the DOW`s 30-day ma clearly rounded off and level at 10,600 while the repo pool 30-day ma is also rounding up slightly. This pattern suggests that the Fed has achieved its plan to level the DOW and hold it flat through March and possibly into April before turning it back upwards.

My forecast of DOW 11,750 exactly on Labor Day stands


Japanese Helicopter Money

Chairman Greenspan announced in 2003 a formal currency management agreement with Japan. With recent developments there we see just how extensive this programs has become http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/newse/20040220wo15.htm .

"The facts speak for themselves: in 2003, Japan spent about …

The dollar is being supported by printing fiat yen at unprecedented rates...$580 Billion per year. Moreover, the rate of growth in this effort is staggering. This pattern of printing fiat paper to defend inherently failing currencies is exactly the path followed by the Weimar Republic in 1924 and it will lead here to the same result--financial disaster for both the US and Japan.

While the hypocrite Greenspan exhorts non-protectionism he and his Japanese cronies practice it (at least in currencies).

Commodities can`t be printed and are thus are the sine qua non of inflation sensors. They are running away at full speed from the fool`s game of paper offered by the Fed and Wall Street.

One may wish to surf the rising DOW tsunami or dart in and out of the volatile commodities markets, but the only safe haven is to take a position in precious metals or energy and calmly wait for the unsustainable economic policies of weakened governments to fail.

Derek VanArtsdalen from San Antonio:

Good morning, Bill --
They say the third time`s a charm.

I`m sure you noticed that the London PM fix on the gold price this evening has been set at $399.50, taking it below the $400 level for the third time in this young gold bull market. As I wrote here a few weeks ago, the Great Golden Bull of the late seventies saw this same phenomenon. Have a look at the chart below:



Note that gold first broke upward through $400 on October 1, 1979. Three days later,it fell back below that critical psychological level. Then on October 10, gold once again closed above $400, only to fall back below it a second time two days later. The next trading day, Monday October 15, gold closed back above $400 at $402.90 and then immediately dropped like a rock the next trading day to close below $400 for a third time at $394.25 on October 16. The price eventually cratered to $372.80 on November 2.

It`s interesting that on the third drop to sub-$400 levels, gold then traded below that mark for 31 trading days, until it closed above $400 for the third and final time on November 28. I`m sure the proverbial "wall of worry" was well intact by that time, and likely many devout gold bugs were sent scrambling for the exits, certain that their long-awaited price liftoff was now only a dream.

We all know the ending by now, of course: gold went on to make historic highs less than eight weeks later in January 1980.

I bring up this little history lesson because this very day …

What will happen this time when (not if!) gold makes it third ascent over $400? I don`t pretend to know, but it seems that the number 3 is almost mystical in its ability to make things happen in the universe. So I don`t rule out the possibility that the next time gold closes above $400 on the London PM fix, we could begin to see some real fireworks. For one thing, once something has occurred three times in a given market, it tends to add credibility to it. Perhaps traders conclude that if a particular price has been violated three times, then there`s genuine strength behind the move. If that`s true, then the same thing happens on the downside, of course, which may explain why the gold market of late 1979 traded below $400 for well over a month when gold broke through important support at $400 for the third time. Naturally, the same thing could happen this time, but I, for one, have absolutely no doubt that we will see $400+ gold again in the not-too-distant future.

And here`s one last juicy tidbit, which will have to remain …

Be right, sit tight --

Another ominous sign for the fate of the dollar:

Aeroflot to transfer to euros in fall

BUSINESS » :: Feb 20, 2004 Posted: 11:49 Moscow time (07:49 GMT)

MOSCOW - The Russian Aeroflot airlines intends to transfer ticket prices from dollars into euros in September-October, Yevgeny Bachurin, commercial director of the airline said at a press conference on Thursday.

"This will lead to some increase in ticket prices for Russian passengers, but it will be insignificant," he noted.

Bachurin recalled that Aeroflot fixed the dollar rate at 30 … /Pravda.ru/

-END-


Derek

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

OBSTRUCTION OF JUSTICE

By Theodore Butler


While I have mixed feelings on the current Martha Stewart trial (should it have been brought in the first place?), the government`s case is centered on the principle that lying in an investigation obstructs justice. That’s an important point in the legal process. It’s probable that the government has selected such a high-profile celebrity to try to send a strong signal to those who may be tempted to lie in future investigations.

It is important that no one obstructs the path to truth and justice in any investigation. But it should work both ways and apply to the government, as well. In fact, the government should probably be held to a higher standard. After all, most senior officials in the government swear an oath of office to upholding the Constitution and truth and justice.

I believe that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFT…

The CFTC is openly shirking its responsibility of preventing market manipulation in the silver market. This is the primary reason why the CFTC and US commodity law exist. Every other responsibility is secondary. Therefore, it is incumbent upon the CFTC to be alert should they receive credible allegations of a market manipulation. That is not happening, and it is why I say that the CFTC is obstructing justice.

There is no doubt, in my mind, that the silver market is manipulated. Every day, more and more people agree. Manipulation is the number one crime in any market, and preventing it is the chief responsibility of our regulatory structure. The silver manipulation is proved by the law of supply and demand, which dictates that the price of a commodity must rise if consumption is greater than production. The very existence of silver "leasing" and the largest uneconomic naked short position in history are visible manifestations of the manipulation, as is the depressed and controlled price for two decades.

The CFTC (and the self-regulators at the NYMEX/COMEX) are obstructing justice by avoiding an open and public "trial" of the silver manipulation. Who knows, maybe they have good answers to the simple questions I have asked them. Maybe they have good reasons for not adopting the solutions I have offered. But, their refusal to even discuss these substantive issues is not comforting. What would happen to Martha Stewart, or any defendant, if no defense to government accusations was offered? What would happen if subpoenas and trial dates were ignored? Then why should a government, of, by and for the people be allowed to simply ignore and evade what is clearly a public mandate? What happens if the public presses the government to redress an obvious wrong and the government refuses? What if great numbers of concerned citizens demand the government to enforce existing law and the government looks the other way? Where does the majority turn to seek an open and impartial setting to judge whether their concerns are legitimate or not?

There are close to 3000 names on the silver petition, in addition to countless letters sent to the regulators, demanding a resolution of the silver manipulation. I have not seen one comment, from anyone, suggesting that the regulators should not address the issue. It`s as if the CFTC and the COMEX are intentionally trying to undermine public confidence in the integrity of the silver market. Refusing to respond quickly to legitimate questions about obvious problems, accompanied by fair solutions, asked by thousands of regular investors will not foster integrity.

I would like to put something into perspective here. I know hundreds of you have taken the time and effort recently to write to the regulators about this matter, and I know thousands of you have put your name and comments on the petition. For that, I thank you. What you have done, in my opinion, is to accelerate the timetable on what is a certain and inevitable outcome - the termination of the silver manipulation. I believe we are reaching critical mass.

When I initiated my campaign to end the silver manipulation in 1985, it basically consisted of writing to the CFTC and COMEX (directly and through elected officials) concerning the outsized dealer short position. I`d mail a letter, get a non-responsive reply a month or two later, write back advising why their answer was non-responsive, and initiate a new series of complaints as new evidence arose. This went on nonstop for up to 12 years, as did the silver manipulation. It was basically between them and me, and they disregarded me. There was nothing I could do about it, except start all over again.

Around 1996-97, I was introduced to the Internet and began to record my thoughts there. I still wrote to the authorities, and the silver manipulation continued, but others started to see what I was seeing. Others began to speak out about the manipulation in silver. People started to become outraged over the manipulation. I think this makes all the difference in the world. Regulators and government officials only seem to react when enough folks get angry. Precisely because so many regular people seem to be upset by this issue, I believe the regulators will be forced to act soon. If they don`t, they will be swept up with the real manipulators when this thing blows.

The key issue here is the excessive short position by the dealers on the COMEX. It has been instrumental in the 20 year silver manipulation. Let me be clear - without the uneconomic and outsized naked dealer short position, the price would be many times what it is currently. Take away that dealer naked short position, and there is no more silver manipulation. This is a problem for the dealers - they can`t get out of their short position. Sure, they can engineer sell-offs to cause technical fund and small speculator liquidations (like we`ve been witnessing), but they can`t completely cover their entire short position. That`s because there is no one willing to take their place on the short side. The dealers are stuck. They can`t just cover or buy back their shorts because that would cause the price to explode and expose them to massive losses and a legal quagmire. Since they can`t cover, their short position remains intact, as does the manipulation.

But time is not on the side of the dealers. The clock is ticking against them. That`s because of the real supply/demand situation and the deficit. Sooner or later, their uneconomic short position will consume them. That`s guaranteed by the law of supply and demand. In fact, there are two recent developments that promise to put serious pressure on the manipulative shorts. For one, we have recently evolved into pronounced deficits and shortages for a good number of base metals, like copper, nickel, lead, steel, and a host of other commodities. The deficits and shortages in all these commodities are as a result of surging world demand, principally caused by strong demand from East Asia. Prices are up sharply and inventories are down sharply. Like all these commodities, silver is demographically and economically sensitive. As I`ve written before, if the world economy is strongly demanding copper, lead, nickel and other commodities, it is impossible for silver not to also be in strong demand. This is not good for the shorts.

The second recent development putting pressure on the manipulative shorts is what I wrote in the body of this article, namely possible regulator involvement. Thousands of regular investors are putting pressure on the regulators to address their legitimate concerns. This is a bonus particular to silver, and not any other commodity. It has the potential to blow the market sky-high, by terminating the decades` old manipulation. In fact, I think the regulators may be forced to give the silver issue a full and fair trial. That’s all we want; nothing more, nothing less. If they can throw the book at Martha Stewart, the government can, at the very least, look at the dealers` silver books. Those dealers have caused a lot more economic harm that Ms. Stewart ever did. And the CFTC has obstructed justice a heck of a lot more, as well.

[ThaiGuru]

Gold Preis!

Ein neuer Tag, ein neuer Versuch!



Silber:



Dollar:



DOW:

[Koenigstreuer]

VERSCHULDUNG DER US-PRIVATHAUSHALTE

Greenspan sieht keinen Anlass zur Sorge

Die Wirtschaftsexperten der ganzen Welt sind sich darüber einig, dass die hohe Verschuldung der Privathaushalte in den USA eine große Gefahr darstellt. Nicht so Alan Greenspan. Nach Ansicht des US-Notenbankchefs sind Schulden weniger schlimm als ein Rückgang des Konsums.

US-Notenbankchef Greenspan: Konsum ist wichtiger als Schuldenfreiheit
Washington - Insgesamt befänden sich die privaten Haushalte in einer guten Verfassung, sagte Greenspan am Montag in Washington. Der Grad der Verschuldung der Privaten sei in den vergangen zwei Jahren stabil geblieben.
Die steigende Verschuldung der privaten Haushalte im vergangen Jahrzehnt, deute nicht auf einen höhere Belastung hin. Um die wahre Belastung der Haushalte zu beurteilen, müsse auch die Vermögensseite berücksichtigt werden. Auch künftig sei damit zu rechnen, dass sowohl die Vermögensbildung und die Verschuldung der privaten Haushalten stärker als die Einkommen zunehmen werde.

Greenspan wies erneut auf die große Bedeutung des privaten Konsums hin, der für zwei Drittel des Bruttoinlandsprodukts verantwortlich ist. Zur Geldpolitik äußerte sich Greenspan nicht.

war klar!

[ThaiGuru]

@Koenigstreuer

#8721

Würdest Du bitte diese Zeilen an Greenspan weiterleiten.


"Weiter Whiskie trinken, und den Inland Konsum ankurbeln"" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"Na denn prost Alan!"

"Weiter Whiskie trinken, und den Inl…

[Koenigstreuer]

auch was schönes!

In testimony before the House Financial Services Committee last week, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan painted a rosy picture of the U.S. economy. In his eyes, the Fed’s aggressive expansion of the money supply and suppression of interest rates have strengthened the financial condition of American households and industries. If this is true, however, our nation’s "prosperity" is merely a temporary illusion based on smoke and mirrors. True wealth cannot be created simply by printing money; families and businesses cannot prosper by getting deeper in debt.

In fact, Economist Frank Shostak of the Ludwig von Mises Institute throws cold water on Chairman Greenspan’s assertions in an article entitled "Running on Empty." Mr. Shostak cites statistics showing that American families have never been deeper in debt, never saved so little, and never consumed so much more than they produce. By any objective standard, U.S. families are treading on very shaky economic ground.

Never mind, says Mr. Greenspan. Mortgage refinancing, made wildly popular by artificially low interest rates established by the Fed, will be the saving grace of American households. They can simply borrow against their homes to finance living beyond their means, a practice encouraged by Fed policies. But what happens when home prices stop going up? What happens when families reach a point where they cannot make payments on two, three, or even more mortgages? How can the Fed chairman equate mortgage credit with real economic growth?

Mr. Shostak also demonstrates that American businesses aren’t doing much better. As consumers exhaust their ability to borrow, they necessarily buy fewer goods and services. The ratio of business liabilities to assets is very high, price to earning ratios are still unrealistic, and investment capital remains scarce. Business may be better than it was two years ago, but the fundamentals are far less healthy than Mr. Greenspan would have us believe.

Debt is the fundamental problem the central planners at the Fed will not address. The total U.S. federal debt is more than $7 trillion, and government spending as a percentage of gross domestic product has never been higher except during World War II. Mr. Greenspan’s attempts to stimulate economic growth by printing money become more and more tenuous: today the Fed must create nearly $7 of new debt in the form of new fiat currency to generate only $1 of new GDP. Twenty years ago the figure was less than $1.50. Clearly this is a race that has run its course.

As financial analyst Jay Taylor explains, the disturbing increase in the debt to GDP ratio illustrates that printing more money is the only solution federal policy makers know. Federal debt naturally grows faster than income-- while there are no limits to how fast the printing presses can run, there are natural limits to economic growth.

The end may come when foreign central banks realize the dollars they receive are worthless, or when they find other places to turn for income. When that day comes, interest rates will rise, perhaps dramatically. At that point not even Mr. Greenspan will be able to save the economy from the painful correction necessitated by his easy credit, easy money policies

[Koenigstreuer]

Die Skeptiker werden immer mehr!
Wann merken es wohl die normalen Leute!

The Coming Implosion of the American Empire
by Gary North



The American Empire is scheduled to depart from Iraq in June. The unofficial word is out in Washington: Karl Rove has told President Bush that the body count, however much reduced by strange definitions of what constitutes a battlefield death, is going to cost him the election if it continues through the summer. Dutifully, the Commander-in-Chief has announced a June deadline for the transfer of Iraq`s sovereignty to "the Iraqis," meaning whichever remnants of the coalition of the suppressed will still officially deal with him on his terms.

If you want a mental image of what is taking place in the White House today, picture Dorothy and her three companions walking through the forest of Oz. They are chanting, over and over, "Shi`ites and Sunnis and Kurds."

The United States government started a pre-emptory war last year. Patriotic couch potatoes marveled at televised shock and awe: flash, boom, smoke. "Wow! Neat! Cool!" President Bush, Sr., said in 1991, "This shall not stand." That is what his son said about the Baghdad skyline. But Americans are now being asked to pick up the pieces, or at least to pay Halliburton to pick up the pieces. Karl Rove has heard the rumblings. The departure date is now set.

Of course, all of the troops will not depart. Reserves are being called up to serve as car-bomb fodder. But, officially, the United States will become an invited observer, probably sharing authority with the United Nations. (This assumes – safely – that no elections will be held prior to June 30; otherwise, the United States will be asked to leave on July 1.). That will please liberals, who will chant, "Bush should have done it this way from the beginning." Meanwhile, conservatives will conveniently overlook the fact that (1) the U.S. military is in retreat mode and (2) the Administration had to beg the United Nations Organization to come to Iraq and bail out Mr. Bush politically. Rush Limbaugh will not remind his listeners of this embarrassing fact. He will not sing the praises of "those courageous and dedicated representatives of the United Nations, the world`s legitimizer of last resort." He will, instead, do his Winston Smith imitation, for which he is deservedly famous.

Americans thoroughly enjoy seeing American troops bang heads around the world, but only on these assumptions: (1) the victims can`t or won`t fight back; (2) the military`s adventures do not visibly tap into Americans` pocketbooks; (3) our troops can pull out at any time without visibly putting their tails between their legs. When there are helicopter retreats from Saigon, American voters react in a hostile fashion. Americans like war, but they like it cheap.

The war in Iraq has been costly in every sense, yet Americans still are paying higher prices at the gasoline pump. The price of oil has risen. The flow of oil out of Iraq today barely trickles. The pipelines cannot be defended by our troops. They are being blown up, although the media rarely report this. The Iraq adventure has now become a vast foreign aid program, and Americans do not like foreign aid programs. The do not like to share the wealth. They want to get their hands on the wealth confiscated politically from their neighbors. They resent foreign interlopers who tap into the flow of stolen goods.

When the regular troops pull out, news from Iraq will peter out, just as Iraqi oil has. There will be stories of this or that car bombing, this or that assassination, this or that break-off tribe. But Iraq will become Afghanistan in the perception of most Americans: out of sight, out of mind. If you want it packaged in a convenient slogan, however incorrect politically, I suggest this one: "When wogs are killing only wogs, the West loses interest."

This will mark the reversal of the American empire. It has taken a long time.

"WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION"

George W. Bush invoked weapons of mass destruction, just as Lyndon Johnson invoked the Gulf of Tonkin incident. It was never quite clear exactly what had happened in the Gulf of Tonkin, but it is clear that there were no weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. Johnson was never successfully exposed publicly as a liar regarding the Gulf of Tonkin. Bush has been exposed, and will continue to be exposed, as either completely misled or a liar, either a nincompoop or a deceiver. He is never going to get back his image as a reliable leader in a time of war, which is the only positive image he ever enjoyed, brief as it was. He will be on the defensive from now on. The phrase, "weapons of mass destruction," will be pinned on his backside the same way "trust me" was pinned on Carter, "read my lips: no new taxes" was pinned on Bush`s father, and "I feel your pain" was pinned on Clinton, barely leaving enough room for "I did not have sex with that woman."

It will become extremely difficult from now on for any American President to invoke a looming military threat in order to justify military intervention by the United States. Clearly, President Bush will never be able to do this again, but I think it goes beyond him. His enduring legacy will be the conversion of "weapons of mass destruction" into the equivalent of Neville Chamberlain`s "peace in our time." The phrase will become a laughingstock. Every President from now on who attempts to justify anything comparable to the Iraq war will be greeted with Congressional hoots of "weapons of mass destruction." Any Congressman with an eye to being re-elected (but I repeat myself) will remember seeing John Kerry`s verbal tap-dancing around his support of launching a war against Iraq. No Congressman wants to be sucked into a retroactive quagmire.

Iraq is a sandy quagmire, just as the war`s critics predicted it would be. It is Vietnam without a comparable body count. It is a continuing disaster, and as soon as the troops leave, Rush Limbaugh will cease trying to defend the disaster. When the troops depart, the Republican faithful will become afflicted with what I call Rushheimer`s disease: selective amnesia. Saddam Hussein will get a trial, but media coverage will match the coverage given to Slobodan Milosevic`s trial.

The war was a bipartisan effort, but because of the President`s rhetoric, he will deservedly get blamed. The Democrats will not push too hard, however, because voters might make the connection between the President`s unsubstantiated claims and Congress`s willingness to roll over and play dead, or whatever it was playing when it rolled over. ("Will you still respect me in the morning?" "Sure I will, baby.") The next time a President calls for an invasion, Congress will be far less supine.

LOSING THE WAR

Our troops won a minor battle in March, 2003. That battle was called a war, but it was only one battle in a very long war. This war has been going on for about 14 centuries. The war`s main theater today is the Middle East. When it becomes apparent to America`s enemies, which are also the State of Israel`s enemies, that the United States did not win its phase of the ancient war, they will be emboldened. Winning the battle in the Middle East requires permanent military occupation by the victors. American voters will not pay the price required. When it comes to wars, American voters are great believers in hit and run. For them, a war is a one-night stand. They prefer to get on with business. Americans want a commercial empire, not a military empire. They view a military empire as justified only because it promotes business. Iraq is not promoting business.

Americans have no intention of becoming surrogate Israelis. The State of Israel is now permanently on the defensive. When Israeli troops fled from Lebanon – "fled" is the correct word to describe their literally overnight departure – it was clear who is winning the war.

This war is deeply religious. This makes it a demographic war. Israelis are losing this war in the bedroom. It is only a matter of time, which is why they are building the wall: a very large prophylactic to deal with the effects of smaller prophylactics. But the comparative birth rates inside the wall`s confines tell the story. The Arabs are winning. They know it. Only if the government imposes a new diaspora and forces all Arabs outside the wall can the Israelis even pretend to be winning. This would be a policy of democracy by removal – what the Afrikaners were unwilling to attempt. In gentile countries, this process is called ethnic cleansing. It is very popular in areas where Muslims and Christians seek territorial hegemony.

In Europe the same war is in progress. Muslims are winning it in the same place: the bedroom. If the trend continues – and there is little evidence that it won`t – the result is inevitable. Christian Europe, which is in fact secular Europe, is going to be replaced. Tours and Lepanto will prove to have been minor skirmishes in a very long war. I can think of only one event that might reverse this process. No one ever mentions it in polite company. It is officially unthinkable. Yet it is being thought in high places. It could take place within 30 minutes from now. It would change everything geopolitically. The Israelis could launch a pre-emptory nuclear strike against Mecca and Medina. The primary symbols of Islam would be reduced to radioactive dust. If the Israelis used a cobalt-tipped bomb, Muslims could not visit Mecca for millennia. Yet Muslims are told to do so at least once in a lifetime.

This tactic is Israel`s trump card strategically. Everyone in power in the Middle East knows it, but no one ever mentions it publicly. Muslims venerate Mecca and Medina and their monuments. When veneration becomes superstition, monuments become primary military targets for the enemy. If the Jews blast Mecca`s rock into radioactive dust, the fallout will be more than radioactive dust. It could be the end of Islam.

Do I think this attack will ever happen? Yes. The Israelis know they are in a fight to the death. They know they will never be accepted by Arabs as lawful residents in the region. Over time, they will be overcome demographically. They know it. Their enemies know it. So, when push comes to shove, Mecca and Medina will disappear.

The United States government is not about to play this trump card. So, the United States is going to lose the war in the Middle East. If you hold back in the Middle East, you are perceived as a loser. The United States has no ace in the hole. Voters here are impatient.

President Bush used to talk tough. Rumsfeld talked about a war lasting for decades. But the Bush Administration will not last for decades. It may not last another twelve months. This is why all the tough talk has ended. The war that matters here is politics, and Iraq has become a political liability. We see and hear little from Rumsfeld these days. Rove appears to have put a gag on him.

The neo-cons are finished. They said the Iraq war would be a cakewalk. It wasn`t. They said we had to establish a presence in the Middle East. We couldn`t. The Republican Party, once Bush leaves office, will not listen to them again. They will publish their subsidized magazines and pretend that the public is listening, but the public has had enough. The neo-cons are visibly losers. They got their shot at power, and they squandered it in the streets of Baghdad. Straussians do not need to read between the lines in order to discern this traditional message: "Americans do not listen to losers."

Bobos in paradise are uninterested in the Middle East. Trust me.

CONCLUSION

The contraction of the American empire will begin in June. It has already lost considerable legitimacy in the eyes of the voters, not because of some great alteration of their principles, but because we are being car-bombed out of the place. The oil is not flowing. Sand isn`t worth the price.

This will be an historic event. Historians will be able to establish a date on which to hang their narratives. Historians will do anything to find such a dated event. December 7, 1941 marks the beginning of the empire in the textbooks, although the Spanish-American War was the more obvious birthplace, assuming that the Louisiana Purchase wasn`t – a major assumption. But Pearl Harbor gets all the attention because of the unarguable transformation of American foreign policy that it produced. Sporadic intervention prior to Pearl Harbor became permanent intervention after.

The troops` departure from Iraq will mark the day that Johnny comes marching home. There will be no parades, any more than there were when Israeli troops pulled out of Lebanon.

The implosion of the American empire is about to begin – not just the military one but also the commercial one. An empire that can no longer afford to keep its troops on active duty in occupied areas is not a good credit risk.

Mark the date on your calendar: June 30, 2004.

February 23, 2004

[calisto]

hier eine interessante Zusammenfassung zum Thema Gold

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/fox/idmonsters/…

[ThaiGuru]

24 Feb 2004 12:16

Barrick Sees 40 Pct Rise in Gold Production by 2007

TORONTO (Reuters) - Barrick Gold Corp. , the third-largest gold producer in the world, said on Tuesday it expects to boost production by about 40 percent by 2007 as a handful of new mines come on stream.

http://www.reuters.com/locales/newsArticle.jsp?type=business…

[ThaiGuru]

Biggest jewellery fair opens

Published on Feb 25, 2004

The Bangkok Gems and Jewellery Fair 2004 opened yesterday in the largest show of its kind in Asia by floor space, covering twice the area of last year to accommodate an expected 50,000 exhibitors and visitors, an industry source said.



http://203.150.224.53/page.news.php3?clid=6&id=108879&usrses…

[ThaiGuru]

February 24, 2004

Minco buys options on Russian gold

http://www.onbusiness.ie/2004/0224/gold.html

[ThaiGuru]

Cambior Inc.: Jipangu Inc. Divesture

LONGUEUIL, QUEBEC--Cambior Inc. has been advised today that Jipangu Inc. has sold 10,422,183 common shares of Cambior Inc. and has monetized its remaining 23,000,000 shares of Cambior through the sale of exchangeable debentures. The transactions are scheduled to close on February 27, 2004.

Cambior Inc. is an international gold producer with operations, development projects and exploration activities throughout the Americas. Cambior`s shares trade on the Toronto (TSX) and American (AMEX) stock exchanges under the symbol "CBJ". Cambior`s warrants (CBJ.WT.C) trade on the TSX.

http://www2.ccnmatthews.com/scripts/ccn-release.pl?/current/…

[ThaiGuru]

February 24, 2004 09:30

Bullion River Gold Corp.: Assignment of North Fork Properties


http://www.newsalert.com/bin/story?StoryId=CqdRAubKbmdu1yJeZ…

[ThaiGuru]

Canplats Reports Further Gold Intercepts in Phase I
Drilling at Rodeo in Mexico


http://www2.ccnmatthews.com/scripts/ccn-release.pl?/current/…

[ThaiGuru]

February 24, 2004 09:00

Sur American Gold Corp.: Exploration Update-Further High Grade Discoveries and Increase in Size of Batoto/Tarale Mineralized Zone to Nearly 1,500 Metres by 1,500 Metres

http://www.newsalert.com/bin/story?StoryId=CqdRAubKbmdu1yJeY…

[ThaiGuru]

February 24, 2004 08:22

Dundee Precious Metals Proposes To Convert Into An Operating Gold Mining Company, Split Its Shares On A 5 For 1 Basis And Eliminate Dual Class Share Structure


http://www.newsalert.com/bin/story?StoryId=CqdRAubKbmdu1yJeX…

[ThaiGuru]

February 24, 2004 13:30 IST

Gold: Where to from here?


http://in.rediff.com/money/2004/feb/24perfin.htm

[ThaiGuru]

Das übliche Gold Cabal Spiel

Der Dollar fällt stark, und Gold darf ein bisschen steigen!

[ThaiGuru]

Beim Silber wird auch noch immer der Deckel draufgehalten!

[ThaiGuru]

February 25, 2004

Gold price up, but Lihir battles against conditions
By Barry FitzGerald

Increased costs, lower production and unfavourable exchange …

weiter....

http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2004/02/24/1077594828620.html

[ThaiGuru]

Vista Gold Corp. (VGZ)

One of our personal favorites, Vista Gold has an interesting 3-year chart formation - a converging triable. Despite all the positive developments with Vista just in the last few months alone, one must be surprised at the mute reaction. Volume has dried up and the price is drifting back towards the support area of $3.90-$4. One noticeable development not seen for a while, during Friday’s trading session and today’s (Monday) a very large buyer in the amount of 100-150k+ shares had a masked bid at $4.13.

The buyer was able to soak up many shares from the float and presumably will hold onto them for a longer period of time. One may speculate that the buyer may have been covering a short position but recent data shows a very small short position in Vista.

weiter....

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1077643353.php

[ThaiGuru]

Vindication for the Fed?

By: Bill Bonner, Eric Fry & Kurt Richebächer, The Daily Reckoning

The Daily Reckoning

Rancho Santana, Nicaragua

Tuesday, 24 February 2004

---------------------

*** Gold under $400...what does it mean?

http://news.goldseek.com/DailyReckoning/1077643484.php

[ThaiGuru]

Major Frauds of the U.S. Monetary System

By: Jason Hommel, GoldIsMoney.com


http://news.goldseek.com/GoldIsMoney/1077640424.php

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.interfax.com/com?item=Chin&pg=0&id=5699302&req=



24.02.2004 08:29:00 GMT

Shanghai Gold Exchange begins controversial futures trading trial

Shanghai. (Interfax-China) - Despite surrounding controversy, the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) began trials of a new gold futures product on February 18 last week, marking the first tentative steps towards a new era in China`s gold and futures trading.

Gold has never before been traded as a futures commodity in China.

weiter....

http://www.interfax.com/com?item=Chin&pg=0&id=5699302&req=

[ThaiGuru]

Avalon Gold Corporation: Battle Mountain Sample Results


http://www.primezone.com/pages/news_releases.mhtml?d=53100

[ThaiGuru]

Tuesday February 24, 11:22 am ET

Reuters
UPDATE - Gold boosted by weaker dollar, still seen sideways

http://biz.yahoo.com/rm/040224/markets_precious_europe_2.htm…

[ThaiGuru]

24 February 2004

TOP STORIES

Indonesia minefield for miner Newcrest

By Sian Powell in Jakarta

24feb04

NEWCREST Mining does not have permission to operate the Toguraci open-cut gold mine located in protected forest in remote North Maluku, according to officials from the Indonesian departments of mining and forestry.

weiter....

http://www.thecouriermail.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,59…

[ThaiGuru]

February 24, 2004

Gabriel Resources Ltd. - Review of 2003 & Project Update

http://www.newswire.ca/en/releases/archive/February2004/24/c…

[ThaiGuru]

Das ist genau das, was in diesem Thread schon seit ca. 2 Jahren heftigst diskutiert wird. Dutzende Postings zu den Gefahren die von Fannie Mae, und Freddie Mac auf die gesammte Weltwirtschaft ausgehen, nicht nur auf die Wirtschaft der US wie Greenspan sagt, habe ich hier im Thread bereits gepostet.

Jetzt endlich, höchstwahrscheinlich viel zu spät, warnt Gree…



Greenspan: Curb Fannie, Freddie Growth

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan on Tuesday urged lawmakers to curb the growth of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, warning if the housing finance giants keep growing unchecked, they likely will threaten the U.S. financial system.



weiter.....

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=568&ncid=749…

[ThaiGuru]

Der Gold Preis!

Gold müsste eigentlich schon viel höher stehen, wenn man den…



Silber:



Dollar:



DOW:

[superman6]

Die Jungs haben eben noch alles unter Kontrolle.

Neue Meldung von Cambrian.

Company Cambrian Mining PLC
TIDM CBM
Headline Update re Ivernia West Inc
Released 14:09 24 Feb 2004
Number 7661V






RNS Number:7661V
Cambrian Mining PLC
24 February 2004


Cambrian Mining Plc (" Cambrian" or " The Company" )

24 February 2004

Conversion of loans to new equity in Ivernia West Inc

Cambrian Mining is pleased to announce that it has converted its
US$500,000 loan note from Ivernia West Inc (" Ivernia" ). The conversion terms of
US 6.5c (Canadian 8.7cents) will result in the issue of 7,692,307 new shares to
the Company. Ivernia is currently trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange at
Canadian 25 cents.

Following the issue of the new shares, the Company holds a total of 37,939,614
shares which represents 19.29% of the issued capital of Ivernia.
Ivernia West Inc. is an international base metals mining and exploration
company, with primary interest in lead and zinc, and headquartered in Toronto,
Canada. The Company`s shares are traded on the Toronto Stock Exchange, symbol
IVW. Ivernia`s principal asset is its 60% (reduces to 51%) equity interest in
the Magellan lead project in Western Australia.

For more information contact:

www.cambrianmining.com

Cambrian Mining plc Jo Malins - 020 7409 0890

Parkgreen Communications Ana Ribeiro - 0207 493 3713


This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange

END

[ThaiGuru]

African Gold signs deal for Ghana site

Tuesday, February 24 16:39:44

(BizWorld)


http://www.businessworld.ie/livenews.htm?a=864905%3Bs=rollin…

[ThaiGuru]

Tuesday World Gold Prices

The Associated Press
2/24/2004, 11:44 a.m. ET

Selected world gold prices, Tuesday.

Hong Kong late: $400.85 up $0.90.
London morning fixing: $4…

http://www.silive.com/newsflash/business/index.ssf?/base/bus…

[ThaiGuru]

Business Mail

Mining fuels national progress - study


http://www.accra-mail.com/story.asp?id=9202

[ThaiGuru]

(AFX-Focus) 2004-02-24 17:55 GMT

Snow discusses dollar, mortgage regulatory reform - UPDATE 1

NEW YORK (AFX) -- U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow said Tuesday he continues to favor a strong U.S. dollar.
Snow, speaking after touring the J.P. Morgan Chase trading floor in New York, also said he is hopeful that the government will create a strong regulator for government sponsored entities, or GSEs, such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Snow`s comments were in line with others made by Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, who was testifying on the GSE issue on Capitol Hill while Snow toured JPMorgan with its chairman William Harrison. Greenspan said Congress, which is weighing a new regulator for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, should create a new oversight body with authority to set capital standards for the companies, much as the Fed does for banks.

Snow said the administration favors a strong regulatory structure to control the GSE`s. Snow said he is "encouraged" by ongoing talks with the Chinese to create greater flexibility in that country`s currency.

"Flexibility is very much in the interest of the Chinese. We… Snow said.

The dollar was trading lower early Tuesday Earlier this week, the Bush administration sent six economic officials to Beijing for the first of several meetings aimed at providing technical assistance to China that could eventually allow China to float its currency, now pegged to the dollar.

"This is the first of a planned series of meetings on techn… Treasury Department spokesman Rob Nichols said Monday.

American business and labor groups say the yuan is artificially undervalued, making Chinese products more attractive. In the past year, the dollar has weakened against the euro, the pound, the Canadian dollar and the Japanese yen, but not against the yuan. China has fixed its currency at roughly 8.3 yuan, also known as the renminbi, to the dollar since 1994.

Snow also reiterated the Bush administration`s confidence in a sustainable U.S. economic recovery and a parallel rise in jobs. "Our economy is on a very good course," Snow told reporters, adding the one of the administration`s top priorities is, "to create as many jobs as possible." Regarding Tuesday`s weaker than expected consume confidence number reported today by the Conference Board, Snow said, "consumer confidence is one statistic among many." U.S. consumers became much more cautious in February as worries about jobs mounted, the Conference Board said Tuesday.

The board`s consumer confidence index plunged to 87.3 in February from a revised 96.4 in January. It`s the lowest level since October and it was the largest decline since last February, when American troops were preparing to invade Iraq.

Economists expected the index to fall to about 92.9, according to a survey conducted by CBS MarketWatch.

This story was supplied by CBSMarketWatch.

For further information see www.cbsmarketwatch.com.

http://www.iii.co.uk/shares/?type=news&articleid=4879272&act…

[ThaiGuru]

Und bitte nicht vergessen wieder mal einen Krüger Rand, Gold Eagle, Gold Panda, oder sowas in der Art zu kaufen!

Gold wird mittelfristig, und erst recht langfristig nicht billiger!

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

Das selbe gilt natürlich, vermehrt noch, auch für`s Silber!

[Rigel]

Genau dies tat ich gestern
nach über zweijähriger Abstinenz.
Mir tropfte vor ungeduldiger Gier der Speichel
aus dem Mundwinkel, als
das ältliche Schalterfräulein
die Nuggets und Maples
ostentativ langsam in
die halbdurchsichtigen
Schutzhüllen schob.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A538-2004Feb23?lang…

White House Forecasts Often Miss The Mark

By Dana Milbank
Washington Post Staff Writer
Tuesday, February 24, 2004; Page A01

President Bush last week caused a stir when he declined to endorse a projection, made by his own Council of Economic Advisers, that the economy would add 2.6 million jobs this year. But that forecast, derided as wildly optimistic, was one of the more modest predictions the administration has made about the economy over the past three years.

Two years ago, the administration forecast that there would …

These are not isolated cases. Over three years, the administration has repeatedly and significantly overstated the government`s fiscal health and the number of jobs the economy would create, but economists and politicians disagree about why.

weiter.....

http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A538-2004Feb23?lang…

[ThaiGuru]

Einer der vermutlich aktivsten Gold Preis Manipulateure, Gol…



http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/040224/financial_goldman_2.html

Reuters
UPDATE - Goldman grappling with regulators on many fronts

Tuesday February 24, 12:57 pm ET
By Greg Cresci

NEW YORK, Feb 24 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE:GS - News), one of Wall Street`s top investment banks, is under regulatory fire on numerous fronts, ranging from bond price manipulation to possible mutual fund trading abuses, according to documents filed by the firm on Tuesday.

New York-based Goldman offered a rare glimpse of its trouble…

In perhaps the most significant disclosure, Goldman said NASD regulators found several of its employees in violation of federal securities laws involving five bond transactions.

The Goldman employees had charged excessive mark-ups or mark…

The $1.9 trillion tax-exempt municipal bond market has come under scrutiny in recent months by regulators at the Securities & Exchange Commission and NASD over pricing practices.

Goldman also said its Spear Leeds & Kellogg unit, which is a leading specialist trader on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (News - Websites) , agreed to pay $45.5 million as part of a settlement with regulators investigating possible floor-trading abuses.

Spear Leeds was one of five specialist trading firms to agree to a $240 million settlement reached in 11th hour negotiations with regulators last week in order to prevent civil charges.

Goldman said in its filing that it had received requests for information from U.S. authorities investigating the mutual-fund trading scandal. The firm, which said it was cooperating with the industry-wide probes, is one of dozens of investment firms swept up in the investigations.

New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer last September launc…

"Goldman, Sachs & Co. and certain mutual fund affiliates have received subpoenas and requests for information from various regulators including the SEC as part of the industry-wide investigation relating to the practices of mutual funds and their customers," the firm said in its Form 10-K.

In midday trading on the New York Stock Exchange, Goldman`s stock was down nearly 2 percent, at $104.70.

Goldman also said it received subpoenas, along with other investment banks it did not name, related to investigations of the public stock offering process.

"In particular, the SEC has been conducting an investigation of certain allocation practices employed by Goldman, Sachs & Co. and other firms, and the SEC staff has advised that it is considering recommending disciplinary charges alleging violations of the federal securities laws," the firm said.

Peter Rose, a spokesman for Goldman, did not return calls seeking comment.

Goldman agreed last April to pay $110 million in fines and p…

(Additional reporting by Nancy Leinfuss, Deena Aubin, Dan Wilchins and Dean Patterson)

[ThaiGuru]

@Rigel

Gratuliere zum Gold Kauf!

[ThaiGuru]

Eine alte US Gold und Silbermine!

ATLAS MINING CO (OTC BB:ALMI.OB)

Liegt seit mehr als 3 Jahren in meinem Depot, habe sie damals für 10 Cents pro Aktie gekauft. Heute kostet sie 13,5 Cents pro Aktie. Bis jetzt nicht gerade berauschend die Rendite, doch das kommt noch, und wie ich vermute geht`s keine 3 Jahre mehr. Schon auf Grund ihrer riesigen "Halloysite Clay" Resourcen müsste *ALMI* eigentlich mindestens 1.- bis 2.- Dollar pro Aktie Wert sein. Ab einem Silber Preis von ca. 8.- Dollar pro Unze könnte Almi auch wieder als Silberproduzent in Erscheinung treten. Zudem hat ALMI noch weitere Gold Minen Beteiligungen im Ausland, und riesige Waldbestände auf ihren Claims.

Mein persönliches Preisziel für ALMI in 12 bis 18 Monaten, mindestens 2 Dollar pro Aktie!





http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/040224/245869_1.html

Press Release Source: Atlas Mining Company


Atlas Mining Company Buys Processing Equipment and Signs Memorandum of Cooperation

Tuesday February 24, 2:13 pm ET

OSBURN, Idaho--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Feb. 24, 2004--Atlas Mining Company (OTCBB:ALMI - News) announced today that they signed a purchase agreement for the acquisition of a KDS Micronex System, which will be used for the processing of halloysite clay at their Dragon mine site in Juab County Utah, from First American Scientific Corp (OTCBB:FASC - News). Along with the sale of the equipment the companies have formed a strategic alliance. FASC will provide technical support and advice to assist Atlas in developing the most viable method of processing its clay, and Atlas has designated FASC as its core supplier of grinding and drying equipment for its mining operations.

weiter....

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/040224/245869_1.html

[ThaiGuru]

FEBRUARY 24, 2004 - 14:13 ET

Western Silver Files Annual Information Form


http://www2.ccnmatthews.com/scripts/ccn-release.pl?/current/…

[ThaiGuru]

Gold futures log biggest one-day climb in a week

SAN FRANCISCO (AFX) -- April gold rose $5.50 close at $404.80 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange to log its biggest one-day climb in a week. Other metals futures strengthened as well, with March silver, April platinum, and March palladium all closing with gains of around 2 percent. This story was supplied by CBSMarketWatch. For further information see www.cbsmarketwatch.com.


http://www.iii.co.uk/shares/?type=news&articleid=4879314&act…

[ThaiGuru]

Linux Gold Corp.: Fengning County, Hebei Province, People`s Republic of China -- Gold/Silver Exploration to Commence by Mid-March

Three of the four samples assayed resulted in up to five oun…

weiter....

http://www.primezone.com/pub/headlines.mhtml?d=53166

[ThaiGuru]

Cassidy Gold Corp.: More Gold in the JJ Vein

VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--Cassidy Gold Corp. (CDY-TSX-V) is pleased to announce strong gold intercepts from ongoing diamond drilling on its Kouroussa Property in Guinea, West Africa, including three additional drill holes through the JJ Vein structure. Cassidy has the right to earn 100% interest, subject to a 15% state participation.

Three HQ-NQ diamond drillholes, totalling 317.0 metres, tested the JJ Vein Trend, and one hole 121.0m in length, tested under artisanal working 160 metres north of the Sanu Folo Vein Trend. Highlights from the JJ Vein Trend include 12.87 g/t gold over 3.95 metres true thickness in KD-24, 46.57 g/t gold over 1.5 metres true thickness in KD-25, and 11.23 g/t gold over 2.22 metres true thickness in KD-26. All significant results are included in Table 1. For a complete plan and sections of drilling to date, please refer to our web site:

http://www.cassidygold.com.

weiter....

http://www2.ccnmatthews.com/scripts/ccn-release.pl?/current/…

[ThaiGuru]

Europa ein Blutbad

http://finance.yahoo.com/m2?u

[ulfur]

It`s all good news for gold

By: Tim Wood


Posted: 2004/02/24 Di 15:43 EST | © Mineweb 1997-2004


NEW YORK (Mineweb.com) -- There is a simple reason Dr Martin Murenbeeld is widely regarded as one of the best prognosticators on gold in the world – he’s been calling the price remarkably accurately.
Let’s step back and recall what he said in May last year about the gold price in the first quarter of this year – he assigned a probability weighted average price of $378 per ounce based on his preferred scenario. For the December quarter he came up short at $375 – but consider that his “C” scenario projection was $413 – 7 months before the event.

Some may carp about the lack of precision, a churlish objection since Murenbeeld provided a base of comfort rather than rampant speculation, and he was straying far further into the future than any real or imagined competitor.

At the end of last year the forecast was updated and gold bugs will be cheering to the rafters – his statistical soothsaying rests on a probability weighted average of $413 and ounce with increases all the way to the second quarter of 2005 (see table).




Murenbeeld provided a distillation of the key gold price drivers in a presentation hosted by Glencairn Gold earlier this month.

Central Banks
· Will continue to sell gold because of fiscal priorities and monetary sea changes, principally in Europe.
· A Washington Agreement rollover with limits on selling remains important to support gold prices.

Asian forex reserves
· China and Japan have fought revaluation of their currencies by buying dollars; their portfolios need diversification.
· Gold can be attractive as a neutral asset of strategic importance.
· Only 1.55% of Asian reserves are in gold (1,932 tonnes).

New Mine Supply
· Production lags price quite significantly.
· Murenbeeld’s model projects declining production until after the end of the decade.
· China and Russia are key players with no clear evidence of their eventual supply-demand balance with increased deregulation.

Hedging
· Every 100 tonnes hedged or dehedged moves the price about $5.
· “Hedgers didn’t hurt the price of gold all that much, and now won’t add to the price of gold all that much.”

Dollar & current account
· The dollar is the most important factor affecting gold with a correlation of 0.56.
· US policy favours a weak dollar to stimulate domestic growth.
· US current account balance suggests “protracted dollar bear market”.
· Deficit is hovering at a record 5% of GDP.
· Fed has signalled it would be comfortable with a further 17% fall in the dollar
· Current account deficit cannot shrink unless:
o US economy tanks, or
o other countries grow faster, or
o dollar falls sharply;
· Interest rate changes are only a warning for gold. Only when the dollar trend changes will gold react.

Monetary policy
· Reflation policy underway to mop up bubble’s excess capacity and avoid depression.
· G7 money supply and gold prices are strongly correlated.
· Two impacts of high money supply – debasement and inflation.
· Negative real interest rates persist and are always gold stimulative.
· Debt levels are unusually high for households and government.

Demographics
· Retiree / worker ratios in OECD countries are rising to unsustainable levels.
· Government obligations are unsustainable by 2030. Responses can be
o Renege
o Cut services
o Raise taxes
o Print money

Other factors
· History repeating itself with regard to how investment bubble shakes out, usually with good results for gold.
· Purchasing power parity measures of gold suggest it is undervalued.
· Floating gold should trade closer to PPP.

http://trinity.mips1.net/MGGold.nsf/UNID/TWOD-5WGSB2?OpenDoc…

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

February 24 - Gold $403.90 up $5.70 - Silver $6.59 up 13 cents

Silver and Gold Pop Very Nicely / $6 Rule AGAIN

We either make ourselves miserable, or we make ourselves str…[/u]Carlos Castaneda

GO GATA!!!

I had just hung up the phone with a colleague after a tirade about the Gold Cartel enforcing their $6 rule in gold once more when this email came in:

Word is getting around

From the Kitco Forum:

Date: Tue Feb 24 2004 12:12

mugwump (the six dollar rule is in place) ID#350203:

Murphy will go ballistic today

-END-

Changed my mood immediately. Got me chuckling with laughter. Yes folks, the white collar thugs running the criminal Gold Cartel price rigging operation stopped gold at exactly $6 higher on the day. For the umpteenth time they enforced their $6 rule. For newer Café members, get the picture? How many times the past few weeks alone has this predictable pattern been noted? It is the same kind of picture MIDAS has been reporting on for 5 ½ years and STILL the nitwits in the mainstream gold world say and do nothing. They are a bunch of woebegone sad sacks, especially The World Gold Council, which ought to be raising Cain about the obvious price-capping drills of an organized cabal.

On a more pleasant subject, the gold opening this morning was extremely unusual. With the yen slightly lower, the euro up 20 and the pound about 50 points to the positive, gold was due almost $3 higher and made its call. What was different, gold made no attempt to fill its gap after it opened. It stayed steady and then gradually rose. I cannot recall one other time over the past years when that was the case. Of course, when gold managed to ring the bell at $6 up on the day, that was all she wrote.

What was so aggravating today was gold was up on its own ear…

Platinum rose $17 to $860, why not gold rising that much??!!

Both gold and silver liquidated yesterday, as expected. The gold open interest fell 4010 contracts to 239,815, while silver fell 2515 to 115,287. The funds may have sold even more today. The Gold Cartel is picking their pocket every which way. Those are the people who have a direct "legal standing" law suit claim against the cabal. Anti-trust regulations are being abused, as they have been for 7 years or more, and unknowing speculators are the ones being taken advantage of.

Gold has now put in a double or triple bottom depending on what length of time you want to use. This is very constructive (see Derek Van Artsdalen below).

April gold:

Ironically the cabal is USING the dollar to CONTROL gold. It…

Some input from a bullion/coin dealer who has been in the business for 40 years. He has not seen the physical gold market this tight in two decades. The physical market is in a bit of a disconnect with the price-rigged Comex. Silver is also extremely tight according to my source and only trades in size at a PREMIUM. You cannot buy a decent amount of physical silver without paying up.

Wait until next month!

Some STALKER feedback. We have confirmed the buyer is from the Far East, in all probability Chinese, and they still have $1.5 billion of gold to buy. We also know why they are buying. This is a big picture trade, not a short-term speculation. The gold they are accumulating is going into deep storage and not coming back into the market on rallies.

The reason is these "Chinese" fear a complete debacle in fia…

Silver continues to perform like it should if it is going to make the explosive run. I have been referring to for some time. It also came in higher and remained steady as traders were afraid to buy until it closed its daily gap left after the opening. Several modest attempts were made to fill that gap, but no cigar.

Our Comex floor sources said yesterday if March silver could close above $6.56, it would change the tone to bullish. Late in the day, when it became clear this would be the case, buyers stepped in.

Morgan Stanley, a cabal affiliate, is caught short at the moment at around $6.53 basis March.

March silver closed at $6.622.

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SV/34

To get some idea how badly the price of gold is managed, compare the gold chart to the silver chart. They are totally different. After years of brutally suppressing the silver price, the wretched crooks are running out of enough physical to keep the price of silver from taking off, leaving gold temporarily in the dust. One of The Gold Cartel`s worst nightmares is about to become a reality. A brilliant light is about to be shown on DRACULA. Can`t happen soon enough for me!

Based on what the dollar is doing, soaring commodity prices, and with the Fed Funds rate in the US at 1% for such an extended period of time, gold should be north of $460 right now, at least.

We know why it is not at that price, and the reason it is so important for silver to show gold the way. When silver explodes, because the bad guys have run out of physical and ways to rig the price, it will make it extremely difficult for the gold criminals to keep bullion from taking off.

Demand for gold will increase dramatically as silver goes berserk." target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/44

Some upstairs gold trading operations are doing so well trading gold by following the currency action, they have put their trading desks next to each other. This is an anecdotal sign we are close to the end when gold follows only the dollar, which to my mind it is only doing because The Gold Cartel has set it up that way.

Ironically the cabal is USING the dollar to CONTROL gold. It…

Some input from a bullion/coin dealer who has been in the business for 40 years. He has not seen the physical gold market this tight in two decades. The physical market is in a bit of a disconnect with the price-rigged Comex. Silver is also extremely tight according to my source and only trades in size at a PREMIUM. You cannot buy a decent amount of physical silver without paying up.

Wait until next month!

Some STALKER feedback. We have confirmed the buyer is from the Far East, in all probability Chinese, and they still have $1.5 billion of gold to buy. We also know why they are buying. This is a big picture trade, not a short-term speculation. The gold they are accumulating is going into deep storage and not coming back into the market on rallies.

The reason is these "Chinese" fear a complete debacle in fia…

Silver continues to perform like it should if it is going to make the explosive run. I have been referring to for some time. It also came in higher and remained steady as traders were afraid to buy until it closed its daily gap left after the opening. Several modest attempts were made to fill that gap, but no cigar.

Our Comex floor sources said yesterday if March silver could close above $6.56, it would change the tone to bullish. Late in the day, when it became clear this would be the case, buyers stepped in.

Morgan Stanley, a cabal affiliate, is caught short at the moment at around $6.53 basis March.

March silver closed at $6.622.

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SV/34

To get some idea how badly the price of gold is managed, compare the gold chart to the silver chart. They are totally different. After years of brutally suppressing the silver price, the wretched crooks are running out of enough physical to keep the price of silver from taking off, leaving gold temporarily in the dust. One of The Gold Cartel`s worst nightmares is about to become a reality. A brilliant light is about to be shown on DRACULA. Can`t happen soon enough for me!

Based on what the dollar is doing, soaring commodity prices, and with the Fed Funds rate in the US at 1% for such an extended period of time, gold should be north of $460 right now, at least.

We know why it is not at that price, and the reason it is so important for silver to show gold the way. When silver explodes, because the bad guys have run out of physical and ways to rig the price, it will make it extremely difficult for the gold criminals to keep bullion from taking off.

Demand for gold will increase dramatically as silver goes berserk.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

The John Brimelow Report

India buys; CoCEA goofs?

Tuesday, February 24, 2004

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $7.00, PM $7.02. with world gold at $400.50 and $401.40. Well above legal import point. Reuters carries a comment by a Rothschild dealer:


"If the extent of the pent up physical demand from India is anything to go by, I would have to agree that a move higher is likely." "" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">""Gold has now tested the $395 support three times this year…

There was apparently some serious buying during Japanese hours, which some observers attribute the Japanese public. This is not really clear from the trading data: on volume equal to 28,448 Comex lots (40% down on Monday), open interest actually fell the equivalent of 293 Comex lots. The active contract went out up 5 yen and $US gold was $401, $3 above the unexciting NY close. (NY yesterday traded 39,174 lots; open interest fell 4,195 contracts.)

Chinese interest, however is a candidate. The Shanghai Gold Exchange, for the second day running, showed premiums in the various grades of over $3 an ounce, extremely high set against the historical record. At the least, this shows that Shanghai’s dealing community does not expect a revaluation of the Yuan. If they did, they would not be bidding for local gold so aggressively.

UBS notes of yesterday’s trading:



Once again, it appears that a well- funded and ambitious short selling community has driven gold down to levels where the physical market will, eventually, overwhelm them. After all, there is no point in being short if the market will not go down further.

Needless to say, one feels this is a vindication of following the mood of the key physical markets by trying to monitor local prices.

While waiting for this situation to play out, it is worth reading the astonishing FT article by the Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors today. Few who follow gold would disagree with the remarks themselves:

""Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Federal Home Loan Bank sys…

However, one wonders at the wisdom of publishing these thoughts in a foreign newspaper – to encourage foreign Central Banks and other holders of these instruments? Lack of professionalism by a US Administration has always been music to the gold market.

JB

[ulfur]

Commodities soaring? Only in dollars

What`s behind fast-rising commodity prices? The tumbling in the value of the U.S. dollar.
February 24, 2004: 2:32 PM EST
John Paul Rathbone, Breaking Views



LONDON (Breaking Views) - The world economy is steaming along. The recovery is gaining speed.

Evidence for this can be found in the surge of commodity prices, which tells of galloping industrial demand and a strengthening recovery.


That`s also why mining stocks, such as Xstrata and BHP Billiton, have performed so well.

Right? Sadly, only in part.

The problem is the currency in which commodity prices are expressed. And as currencies have moved so much lately, this choice matters a lot.

Measured in dollars, for example, the benchmark Commodity Research Bureau index has soared by almost 40 percent over the past two years. Oil prices, meanwhile, have risen by 50 percent. But switch the currency and the picture changes dramatically.

Priced in euros, the CRB has fallen since the start of 2002. Do the same for oil, and the price of crude has hardly budged. That`s why oil cartel OPEC, which has been criticized for keeping oil prices high, recently suggested it might dump dollar pricing for a more flattering currency instead.

All this puts investors in a quandary. Which currency gives them the best bead on how commodity prices really have moved - and what that might mean for economic growth, future inflation and interest rates, even stock prices? One solution is to use the IMF`s Special Drawing Rights, a basket of currencies made up of dollars, euros, yen and sterling.

Do that, as Lehman Brothers economists have done, and over the past two years the CRB has risen by some 15 percent. This points to moderate economic growth, in line with past commodity price cycles, but not the boom suggested by the 37 percent dollar rise of the CRB. Furthermore, in absolute terms the CRB is still well below the peaks it reached in the mid-1990s and 1980s, which it has broken through when dollars are used.

This suggests two things. The global recovery is not as strong as dollar-commodity prices currently suggest. But should the recovery strengthen, or if commodities really are in the middle of secular bull run thanks to growing Asian demand, there is still room on the charts for commodity prices to rise higher still.

http://www.thebulliondesk.com/NewsProvider.aspx?NewsID=47941…

[ulfur]

Will Asian central banks buy gold?
G. Chandrashekhar



Mumbai, Feb. 24

GOLD producers are incurable optimists. They constantly look for opportunities to expand the demand base. Believers in gold have always been positive about prices and are willing to project a favourable outlook based even on seemingly innocuous statements of policy makers.

No wonder, the Japanese Finance Minister`s statement last month about the ongoing discussions relating to positioning of gold in foreign reserves has evoked interest in the market. He was answering a question whether Tokyo would bring its gold reserves more in line with other nations.

India, whose ravenous appetite for gold is well known, has accumulated foreign exchange reserves in excess of $100 billion so far and it is growing roughly at $4 billion a month. However, India`s gold holding is rather modest at 357 tonnes.

It is no secret that large Asian central banks have a low proportion of gold as part of their total reserves as compared to European central banks and the US. However, Japan with 765 tonnes and China with 600 tonnes are amongst the top 10 largest gold holders already; and indeed, hold a similar quantum of gold as the ECB (767 tonnes). The difference is of course in gold`s share of the total reserves. So, the question that arises is: will Asian central banks buy gold?

A decade of large-scale and widespread gold sales by central banks has generated scepticisms about central banks reversing the trend and actually buying gold.

According to Mr Kamal Naqvi, precious metals analyst with Barclays Capital, low yield, low liquidity, tough exit route and difficulties in building reserves would all have a bearing on the issue. It can be argued that yields on US dollar assets have fallen markedly and hence the opportunity cost of holding gold has significantly reduced. However, gold is not only an extremely low yielding asset but there is also limited lending potential— only around 4,000 tonnes of the total official sector holding of 30,000 tonnes is being lent. The lending market, at present at least, is driven by borrowing demand and this has fallen significantly due to reduced producer forward selling, minimal speculative short selling and depressed physical demand, Mr Naqvi reasoned.

Low liquidity in the gold market vis-à-vis the foreign exchange market is another reason. Average daily turnover in gold of about $7.3 billion is minuscule as compared with average daily global turnover of $1,200 billion in foreign exchange markets. Also, the difficulties in exiting large physical positions in gold are evidenced by the very existence of the agreement among European central banks on sale of gold in order to reduce their holdings. This itself may discourage other central banks from increasing their gold reserves significantly, the expert pointed out adding that it would be impossible for buying banks to build further reserves without a major price reaction.

``For example, if Japan wanted to match the proportion of gold in its reserves as the ECB (initially) then 15 per cent would equate to a requirement to purchase nearly 6,800 tonnes. Given that this represents 2.6 years` of mine output, such a purchase scheme is virtually impossible to transact in anything other than a massive off-market transaction,`` Mr Naqvi remarked.

But gold market lives on hope. Few would have believed prior to September1999 that European central banks would come together to agree to conduct and contain gold sales as a group— but it happened and fundamentally altered the market.

According to the analyst, if any of the major Asian countries had intention to meaningfully raise their percentage of gold as a proportion of their total reserves, then the next few months are realistically their only opportunity to do so. Before any new European gold sales agreement begins (it is up for renewal in September 2004), it is conceivable that an approach could be made to Europe from one or more Asian central banks to purchase several thousand tonnes of gold in a major `off-market` or `staged` transaction.

Indeed, there may be a number of European central banks willing to offer discount on current spot price so that their excess stocks could be liquidated quickly. While what Japan does remains to be seen, India is most unlikely to increase its gold reserves, it is widely believed. In India`s reserves, the share of gold is less than 5 per cent, which is in line with many of the Asian economies and others like Australia and Russia. So far, there has not been any indication that the country wants to raise its gold reserves.

As for management of gold reserves, in its latest Report on Currency and Finance, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) reiterates the importance of gold held by the bank.

The RBI has a modest gold holding of 357 tonnes of which 65 tonnes or 18.2 per cent are held abroad. The yellow metal provides ample cushion to the reserves of the country as was demonstrated in the critical periods of the foreign exchange crisis in 1991.

However, there is nothing at present to suggest that the RBI would even remotely consider going in for adding to its gold reserves, notwithstanding the burgeoning forex kitty.

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/2004/02/25/stories/20040…

[superman6]

25.02.2004/17:00:05



Devisen: Euro sinkt nach Greenspan-Aussagen wieder unter 1,26 Dollar

FRANKFURT (dpa-AFX) - Der Kurs des Euro EURUS.FX1 ist am Mittwoch nach Aussagen von US-Notenbankchef Alan Greenspan wieder unter die Marke von 1,26 US-Dollar gerutscht. Bis zum späten Nachmittag gab die europäische Gemeinschaftswährung einen Großteil ihrer Vortagesgewinne ab und sank bis auf 1,2553 Dollar. Am Dienstag hatten enttäuschende US-Konjunkturdaten den Euro noch über 1,27 Dollar getrieben. Die Europäische Zentralbank (EZB) setzte den Referenzkurs am Mittwochnachmittag auf 1,2629 (Dienstag: 1,2595) Dollar fest. Der Dollar kostete damit 0,7918 (0,7940) Euro.
"US-Notenbankpräsident Alan Greenspan hat im Gegensatz zu seiner Rede vor zwei Wochen keine Aussagen zur Dollarschwäche gemacht", begründete Devisenexperte Carsten Fritsch von der Commerzbank die neuerliche Euroschwäche. Damit sei ein Belastungsfaktor für den Dollar weggefallen.
Insgesamt habe der Euro angesichts moderater Verbraucherpreise aus Deutschland und kritischer Aussagen von Bundeskanzler Gerhard Schröder "verstärkt mit Gegenwind zu kämpfen", sagte Fritsch. Der politische Druck auf die EZB, bei der Ratssitzung in der kommenden Woche die Leitzinsen zu senken, nehme zu. Auch die am Mittwoch veröffentlichten Inflationsdaten aus Deutschland und der Rückgang des ifo-Geschäftsklimaindex am Vortag legten eher eine Leitzinssenkung nahe. Gleichwohl rechnet Fritsch am kommenden Donnerstag mit unveränderten Leitzinsen in der Eurozone.
Bundeskanzler Gerhard Schröder dringt unterdessen angesichts der Eurostärke auf eine Zinssenkung der EZB. "Mit allem Respekt vor der Unabhängigkeit der Europäischen Zentralbank" bestehe "Anlass, dass man dort auch über Zinssenkungen nachdenkt", sagte der SPD-Politiker am Mittwoch in einem Interview mit NDR-Info. Die Dollar-Schwäche und die daraus resultierende Stärke des Euro bereiteten Probleme im Export. Damit sollte sich die EZB "schon intensiv befassen".

N.B.
Da sich Alan Greenspan jetzt auch schon dreht, ist
nur noch auf Gold verlaß.
Heute ist ja günstiger Kaufzeitpunkt.

[ThaiGuru]

Alles Zufall oder was?

Seit Stunden komme ich nicht mehr bei Wrein.
Selbst ein Ping, und ein Echo Request mit dem Program "Netscan Tools" ergab kein Ergebnis.

Danach hat mich mein "Gwunder" es über einen anonymen Server ausprobieren lassen,

portal.allgemeiner-datenschutz.de

http://portal.allgemeiner-datenschutz.de/

und siehe da ich bin drin, und kann sogar dieses Posting verfassen.

Ja vielleicht funktioniert der direkte Zugang auf Wwieder denke ich, und versuche ohne anonym Server bei Wreinzukommen.

Fehlanzeige! Kriege immer noch die Windows Explorer Meldung, dass Wnicht erreichbar ist, was ja ganz klar nicht stimmen kann, falls Ihr dieses Posting lesen könnt.


"The page you are looking for is currently unavailable. The Web site might be experiencing technical difficulties, or you may need to adjust your browser settings."" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"The page cannot be displayed"

"The page you are looking f…

Die Frage stell sich nun, wo denn die Ursache für dieses Phänomen liegt. Bei W:O, die auf diese, wie mir scheint etwas ungewöhnliche Weise auf meine Postings zum Gold Manipulations-Geschehen verzichten wollen, oder aber bei meinem Internet Provider hier in Thailand, der Wallstreet Online aus irgend einem mir nicht bekannten Grund auf seine Sperrliste geschrieben hat.

Ich werd`s rausfinden.

Bis dahin müsst Ihr wohl ohne mich auskommen, da ich nicht vorhabe über anonyme Server zu posten.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

PS: Das heute das Gold Cabal sein Manipulations-Spiel wieder abzieht, brauche ich euch wohl nicht mehr zu sagen



Dass zudem heute Alan Greenspan schon wieder vor einer wahrscheinlichen Finanzkrise warnt, und die Politiker ultimativ auffordert etwas zu unternehmen, ist ja schon sehr bemerkenswert.



Greenspan Urges Fiscal Fix Through Spending Cuts
Wednesday February 25, 10:20 am ET

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/040225/economy_greenspan_5.html

Dass dabei der Goldpreis gleich wieder mal um 50% mehr runterfällt, als es steigen darf, wenn gerade mal die Japanische Zentralbank Ausnahmsweise nicht am Devisenmarkt interveniert, und der Dollar in den Keller rauscht, wo er ja eigentlich auf Grund der sich ständig ausweitenden Geldmenge, und der riesen Verschuldung auch hingehört.

Meine E-Mail:

[e-mail]

[ThaiGuru]

Ach ja, fast hätte ich`s vergessen zu sagen.

Kauft physisches Gold!!

[ThaiGuru]

The Coming Storm

http://www.economist.com/agenda/PrinterFriendly.cfm?Story_ID…

"There are any number of potential flashpoints: a rout in th…

[superman6]

Immer mehr wird eine Zinssenkung gefordert.

Ob die EZB da noch ruhig bleiben kann????

25.02.2004/19:03:34



Druck auf EZB wächst - Schröder verlangt Zinssenkung

BERLIN (dpa-AFX) - Die Europäische Zentralbank (EZB) kommt unter wachsenden Druck, wegen des anhaltend starken Eurokurses EURUS.FX1 die Leitzinsen noch weiter zu senken. Am Mittwoch forderte Bundeskanzler Gerhard Schröder (SPD) von den Währungshütern in Frankfurt, auf die Eurostärke und die negativen Folgen für den Export zu reagieren. "Mit allem Respekt vor der Unabhängigkeit der Europäischen Zentralbank" bestehe "Anlass, dass man dort auch über Zinssenkungen nachdenkt", sagte der Kanzler im NDR.
Der Druck auf die EZB nehme zwar zu, sagte Devisenexperte Carsten Fritsch von der Commerzbank. Auch der am Mittwoch veröffentlichte deutliche Rückgang der jährlichen Inflationsrate in Deutschland und der am Vortag bekannt gegebene Rückgang des ifo-Geschäftsklimaindex für Deutschland legten eher eine Leitzinssenkung nahe. Gleichwohl rechnet Fritsch am kommenden Donnerstag (4. März) mit unveränderten Leitzinsen in der Eurozone. Dann kommt die Spitze der Zentralbank um EZB-Präsident Jean-Claude Trichet zu ihrer nächten Ratssitzung in Frankfurt zusammen.
GERINGERES ZINSGEFÄLLE
Der wichtigste Leitzins der EZB liegt seit Mitte 2003 auf dem ohnehin niedrigen Niveau von 2,0 Prozent. In den USA liegt der Leitzins allerdings mit 1,0 Prozent noch niedriger. Sollte die Schere nach einer weiteren Senkung in Europa kleiner werden, so die Kalkulation, könnte dies dem Dollar zu Auftrieb verhelfen.
Die EZB hat Zinssenkungen dagegen bislang mit dem Hinweis abgelehnt, dass die konjunkturellen Aussichten auch ohne einen solchen Schritt positiv seien. Negative Effekte durch die Eurostärke im Außenhandel, so bislang die Argumentation der Währungshüter, würden durch die Belebung der Weltwirtschaft wieder wettgemacht.
EURO RUTSCHT ZEITWEISE UNTER 1,25 DOLLAR
Am Mittwoch rutschte der Kurs des Euro nach einer Rede von US- Notenbankchef Alan Greenspan zeitweise unter die Marke von 1,25 Dollar. Er ist damit aber nur gut 4 US-Cent von seinem Rekordhoch Mitte Februar entfernt.
Schröder hatte bereits im Januar angesichts möglicher konjunktureller Gefahren durch den starken Euro die EZB zum Handeln aufgerufen. Er sei guter Hoffnung, dass man bei der EZB die besondere Verantwortung speziell für die Entwicklung des Zinsniveaus in letzter Zeit erhöht zur Kenntnis genommen habe, hatte der Kanzler damals gesagt. Die Handlungsmöglichkeiten für eine Reaktion auf die Euro- Stärke lägen in erster Linie bei der EZB./kf/DP/jha

[ulfur]

Etwas zum schwarzen Gold:




Beim Öl könnten die meisten Experten weiter irren

25. Februar 2004 Irgend etwas scheint am Ölmarkt falsch gelaufen zu sein. Denn obwohl der Irak-Krieg längst beendet ist, hat sich der allgemein vorhergesagte Preiseinbruch nicht eingestellt. Ein Barrel (159 Liter) Öl der Opec-Länder kostet nach dem jüngsten Preisanstieg jetzt trotzdem wieder mehr als 30 Dollar. Und obwohl die meisten Experten noch immer von einem baldigen Preisrückgang ausgehen, gibt es gute Gründe für mittelfristig noch weiter steigende Preise.

Bei Würdigung all dieser Argumente, zu denen auch die Terrorgefahr gehört, stellt man sich sogar die Frage, warum die meisten Experten in Sachen Ölpreis überhaupt so pessimistisch sind. Daß sie Recht bekommen, ist zwar nicht völlig auszuschließen, aber es gibt durchaus gewichtige Gründe, die dagegen sprechen. Und diese haben nicht nur mit der latenten Terrorgefahr und den schwierigen politischen Situationen in den großen Ölförderländern Venezuela und Saudi-Arabien zu tun.

Experten liegen mit ihren Prognosen schief

So ist es nun einmal nicht zu leugnen, daß die Ölpreise schon seit drei Jahren auf dem derzeitigen Niveau notieren und sich folglich ein starker Trend herausgebildet hat, der bisher allen preisdrückenden Einflüssen trotzte. Dies hat dazu geführt, daß die Experten nicht erst seit gestern schief liegen, sondern schon seit einiger Zeit irren. Damit bestätigt sich wieder einmal die Beobachtung, daß an den Finanzmärkten die Mehrheit meistens Unrecht hat.

Dafür, daß dies so bleiben könnte, sprechen fundamental betrachtet vor allem die auf überraschend niedrige Niveaus abgesackte Lagerbestände. Gleichzeitig fällt die Nachfrage höher aus, als vielfach angenommen. Die Rolle, die das boomende China dabei spielt, das in diesem Jahr zum zweitgrößten Ölkonsumenten aufsteigen dürfte, ist hinlänglich bekannt. Aber selbst Amerika war zuletzt bei der Nachfrage für Überraschungen gut, denn wie jüngst bekannt wurde, ist dort die Nachfrage im Dezember um 3,3 Prozent höher gewesen als angenommen.

Opec deutet Rolle rückwärts an

Über diese Entwicklung erschreckte offenbar sogar die Organisation der Erdöl exportierenden Länder (Opec), denn die hat in dieser Woche erstmals eine Lockerung ihrer Förderpolitik angedeutet. Das käme einer Kehrtwende um 180 Grad gleich, hatte die Opec doch erst kürzlich beschlossen, ab April die Fördermenge um eine Millionen Barrel täglich zu kürzen. Ziel dieses Beschluß war es, einen Preisverfall in dem für Öl saisonal bedingt traditionell schwachen zweiten Quartal zu vermeiden. Doch dieser künstliche Hilfseingriff scheint nun überhaupt nicht mehr nötig zu sein. Jedenfalls notiert der Ölpreis nun schon seit 57 Tagen in Folge über dem von der Opec anvisierten Zielband von 22 bis 28 Dollar je Barrel.

Für ein Anhalten der Versorgungsengpässe spricht längerfristig betrachtet auch der Umstand, daß seit einiger Zeit mehr Öl verbraucht wird als neue Quellen erschlossen werden. Dazu hat auch die notorisch skeptische Erwartungshaltung der Marktteilnehmer beigetragen. Denn auch die Ölkonzerne selbst planen mit einem deutlich tieferen Ölpreis, und auf dieser Annahme rechnen sich viele Investitionen zum Ausbau der Kapazitäten nicht, so daß diese unterlassen wurden.

Befindet sich der Ölpreis in einem langfristigen Bullenmarkt?

Angesichts dieser Rahmendaten kommt ein Händler bei einem kanadischen Broker, der nicht namentlich genannt werden will, weil auch sein Institut offiziell eine andere Ölpreisprognose hat, zu folgendem optimistischen Schluß: „Wir befinden uns in einem langfristigen Bullenmarkt und stehen dabei erst am Anfang des Zyklus. Auf Sicht von zwölf Monaten traue ich dem Ölpreis einen Anstieg bis auf 45 Dollar zu. Auch glaube ich nicht, daß die aus dem Irak (Anm. d. Red.: Irak hat nach Saudi-Arabien weltweit die größten Ölreserven) gemeldeten Förderquoten stimmen. Denn solange dort keine Ruhe und politische Klarheit herrscht, wird kein Dollar in Öl investiert werden.“

Trifft diese Prognose ein, dürfte es für Investoren lohnend sein, sich im Ölsektor zu engagieren. Derzeit wird die Branche gemessen am hohen Ölpreis aber sogar eher gemieden. Die stiefmütterliche Behandlung hat ebenfalls mit dem marktkonformen Pessimismus zu tun, wonach die Ölpreise mittelfristig wieder fallen sollen. Denn dieses Szenario hält Anleger natürlich von Engagements bei Ölaktien ab.

Kurse der Ölaktien spiegeln hohe Preise noch nicht ausreichend wider

Das wiederum bietet Anlegern mit eigener Meinung die Chance, noch relativ günstig bei den Ölaktien zum Zuge zu kommen. Das Kurs-Gewinn-Verhältnis der amerikanischen Branchenvertreter liegt bei 14 und das der Europäer bei zwölf, was tiefer ist als am Gesamtmarkt. Sehr ansehnlich sind auch die Dividendenrenditen, die bei den Europäern im Schnitt bei 3,9 Prozent liegt und bei den Amerikanern bei 5,0 Prozent.

Bereits etwas höher bewertet sind die reinen Explorationswerte, doch dafür bietet diese Gruppe auch einen noch höheren Hebel für den Fall, daß der Ölpreis hoch bleiben sollte. So setzt der bereits zitierte Händler auf die vier großen unabhängigen kanadischen Ölexplorationsfirmen Encana, Canadian Natural Resources, Talisman Energy und Nexen. Hier hält er weitere deutliche Kursgewinne für möglich, falls seine zuversichtliche Ölpreisprognose eintreffen sollte.

http://www.faz.net/s/Rub2C201996BBF04B578F9FC8A9EFCCE747/Doc…

[superman6]

So ähnliche Vorgänge wie bei Thai-Guru kann ich
bei mir auch feststellen.

Sollen alle Gold-Fans mundtot gemacht werden?


Ich meine auch:

Die beste Antwort ist der physische Kauf von Gold.

Schaut euch mal den Einstieg von H.R. Moser
bei UCL an. Er kauft selbst Optionen die
zu einem Wahnsinnspreis umgetauscht werden
müssen.

[niemandweiss]

ich erinne mich an derartige Probleme und dass ich zum Schluss meinen Beitrag vorsichtshalber sogar kopiert hatte, bevor er nach jedem missglückten Postingversuch in der Versenkung verschwindet. Aber war stets vorübergehend.

Was bei Gold abgeht, kann ich zur Zeit auch nur schwer nachvollziehen. Jetzt wo die Märkte zumindest korrigieren, muss Gold natürlich auch runter, wen wundert es noch? :O

[superman6]

Vielleicht sollte man Investika doch jetzt über
SYdney ordern.

Wenn man sich das so anschaut:

Investika hat Aktien von Quicktrack Networks
verkauft.
Soll die Beteiligung an Cambrian wohl jetzt
bald aufgestockt werden?

GERSTERN ABEND PRAESENTIERTE CAMBRIAN MINING FOLGENDE NACHRICHT:





Company Cambrian Mining PLC
TIDM CBM
Headline Proposed Admiss of WCC Corp
Released 18:10 25 Feb 2004
Number 8417V






RNS Number:8417V
Cambrian Mining PLC
25 February 2004



25 February 2004

Cambrian Mining Plc (" Cambrian" or " The Company" )

Proposed admission of Western Canadian Coal Corp to AIM

Cambrian is pleased to copy the following press release from Western Canadian Coal Corp, which is listed
on the Toronto Venture Exchange. Deepgreen Minerals Corporation (a 40% subsidiary of the
Company) along with Cambrian hold approximately 52% of the issued capital of
Western Canadian Coal Corp. Cambrian is currently in the process of merging with
Deepgreen

Williams de Broe Plc to be advisor to AIM listing of Western Canadian Coal Corp


WTN 04-02 TSX-V:WTN

Proposed Admission of Western Canadian Coal Corp. to AIM

Vancouver, B.C. February 24, 2004 - Western Canadian Coal Corp. (TSX-V:WTN)
(" Western" or the " Company" ) announces its intention to admit Western to the
Alternate Investment Market of the London Stock Exchange plc (" AIM" ). Williams
de Broe Plc will advise Western on the admission. The proposed admission will be
subject to market conditions.

The Directors of Western believe that the proposed listing will be an important
step for the Company. A dual listing on the LSE and the TSX-V is expected to
help raise the profile of the Company. It is expected that the Company will
achieve a broader shareholder base and increase liquidity in trading of its
shares by attracting investors from the UK and Europe. The Directors also
believe that the listing will significantly enhance the Company`s growth
potential.

In connection with its intention to be admitted to AIM, the Company advises that
it has agreed to an equity financing, the terms and conditions of which are yet
to be finalized, and which will be subject to regulatory approvals if and as
required.

In unrelated matters, the board of directors has approved the appointment of Mr.
William Burton P.Eng. as VP Operations, effective immediately. Mr. Burton brings
extensive coal production experience to Western, including the startup of two
open pit coal mines in Western Canada. Mr. Burton contributed in senior
engineering and management roles over the past 17 years with a major Canadian
gold producer.

Western has also granted 245,000 incentive stock options at an exercise price of
$0.80 to certain officers and consultants pursuant to the Company`s stock option
plan.

Western Canadian Coal Corp. is a Vancouver based coal company with a large
portfolio of coal properties in northeast British Columbia. The Company
currently has more than 250 million tonnes of coal subject to exploration,
development and production planning, with priority on placing its Perry Creek
operation in commercial production in Q2 2006.

Charles G. Pitcher
President & C.E.O.

Contact:
Western Canadian Coal Corp.
Contact Barry Girling or Charles Pitcher, President at 604-608-2692 or
[e-mail]
Website: www.westerncoal.com

The TSX Venture Exchange has not reviewed and does not accept responsibility for
the accuracy or adequacy of this release.

For further information contact

www.cambrianmining.com

Cambrian Mining Jo Malins - 0207 409 0890
Parkgreen Communications Ana Riberio - 0207 493 3713




This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange

END





WESTERN CANADIAN COAL(52% gehoeren Cambrian Mining

[Pal]

@ Thai,

come on, wo lebst Du denn? Dich mundtot machen, weil Du hier von Manipulation etc. redest? Was für ein Blödsinn. Glaub mir, keiner würde Dich so wichtig nehmen, wie Du DIch selbst.

Lebst Du nicht in Thailand? Wäre es nicht sinnvoll, hier den Grund zu suchen?


Grüßle, PAl

[Nevadabob]

Gold - The Bull Trend Is Global

Charts of GoldGram Exchange Rates

1 GoldGram
5 Years USD - USD - US Dollars


1 GoldGram
5 Years AUD - Australian Dollars


1 GoldGram
5 Years CAD - Canadian Dollars


1 GoldGram
5 Years CHF - Swiss Francs


1 GoldGram
5 Years DEM - Deutsche Marks


1 GoldGram
5 Years EUR - Euros


1 GoldGram
5 Years FRF - French Francs


1 GoldGram
5 Years GBP - British Pounds


1 GoldGram
5 Years ITL - Italian Lira


1 GoldGram
5 Years JPY - Japanese Yen


1 GoldGram
5 Years MXN - Mexican Pesos


Eurasia Gold Corp. (EGX:TSX-V)
Eurasia Gold Corp. is a gold producing company incorporated
in Canada and headquartered in Toronto, Ontario.

The company operates two gold mines in the Republic of Kazakhstan
through its wholly owned subsidiary, Andas-Altyn LLP.

The company’s primary business is mining and processing gold as
well as acquiring and developing additional gold deposits in Kazakhstan.

Eurasia Chart:
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/charts/int-adv.chart?siteid=mktw&…

Eurasia Gold Corp. (EGX:TSX-V) @ The Toronto Stock Exchange
http://www.tse.com/HttpController?GetPage=QuotesViewPage&Det…

Eurasia Website: http://www.eurasiagold.com

Please do your own DD before investing in any stocks.
imo Best regards,

[Nevadabob]

Will they ever have to buy back and cover?

MfG,
Nevadabob

[einmalpleitereicht]

Anschnallen ....der silber squeez geht los!!!

morgen ist der "first day of notice" für den März Future.
Da kann man anmelden, dass man das silver geliefert haben will.
Gerüchte, dass es zu großen Auslieferungswünschen kommt halten sich hartneckig. Auch Buffet soll mit dabei sein.

Zur Info:

Im Moment sind 118 000 Future short.
Jeder Kontrakt besteht aus 5000 unzen macht rund
590 000 000 Unzen.
In den Lagerbeständen der COMEX sind zur Zeit rund
50 000 000 Unzen zur Verfügung.



Kann also gut sein, dass weltweit bald das Firmrollen ausgehen, weil die von den Shorts aufgekauft werden, um so das Silber für die notwendigen Lieferungen rauszupressen.

[ulfur]

Auch Gold scheint sich zu erholen.

Gold ends off lows as price fall sparks buying

SAN FRANCISCO (AFX) -- April gold closed just 60 cents lower, at $395.50 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after a drop to a three-month low of $391. Gold bulls were likely "waiting for this decline as a buying opportunity," said John Person, head financial analyst at Infinity Brokerage Services. March silver also reversed in the last half hour of trading to close at $6.708 an ounce, up 17.3 cents for the session, despite an earlier decline to $6.30.

This story was supplied by CBSMarketWatch. For further information see www.cbsmarketwatch.com.

[ulfur]

Hoffentlich hat Thaiguru sein Problem bald gelöst, ich möchte die GATA-Berichte zum heutigen Tag lesen.

[Magor]

Es scheint ein Novum sich einzuschleichen:
Die Metallpreise sind sich vom US-Dollar Verlauf am lösen!
Was bedeutet, daß die Metallpreise in Euro bemessen nun loslegen könnten zu steigen!

[einmalpleitereicht]

Thai, ich hoffe es geht dir gut.
Hoffentlich legt mir jetzt keiner das Cabel um den Hals
;-)



February 26 - Gold $394.80 down 80 cents - Silver $6.70 up 19 cents

SILVER SOARS! / Highest CRB Close In 20 Years!

"It is important that no one obstructs the path to truth and justice in any investigation. But it should work both ways and apply to the government as well. In fact, the government should be held to a higher standard. After all, most senior officials in the government swear an oath of office to uphold the Constitution and truth and justice."
- Theodore Butler

What a day! It was a gulper this morning. Arising early, I saw gold was down $2.50 and silver was creamed, trashed for 18 cents. The dollar was on a tear for no apparent reason, except that the ECB might cut interest rates next week. As mentioned yesterday, this type of currency debasement is gold/silver BULLISH, not bearish.

After a lousy durable good numbers and worse jobless claims report than expected, the dollar weakened and gold/silver popped a bit with gold going positive on the day. Then, the dollar roared and gold/silver went into free fall. Gold fell to $390.20 and silver disappeared to $6.27. All looked bleak, unless one was paying attention to what commodity prices were doing and comprehending what is really going on behind the scenes in silver.

While gold and silver were plummeting this morning, the CRB was making a multi-year high. It makes no sense to have commodity prices and inflation soaring in the US and to have gold and silver tanking. The only reason they dipped this morning is many in trading world are equating gold/silver to solely what the dollar does. This is absurd from a big picture perspective. Is it not so that investors historically buy gold and silver when inflation is on the rise? Well, as you have read in this commentary the past week, courtesy of some sharp Café members, inflation is on the super prowl in the US.

In 1993, the price of gold soared with the dollar moving up. There is no reason it could not do so again in 1994, irrespective of the dollar action. The gold fundamentals are just too powerful. Although, it is hard for me to imagine the dollar rising too much more, not with the problems the US has, ones which worsen by the week.

The gold fundamentals are as good as they get. The only reason gold is not making new highs at the moment is The Gold Cartel capped the price on dollar weakness and then poured the heat on bullion when the dollar rallied. This lowlife cabal managed to flush out many of the black box specs longs and has turned some to shorts down at these levels.

Contrast the disconnect between reality and how the US Fed/Bush Administration deals with inflation. The CRB leaped 4.17 on the day to close at 273.38, the HIGHEST CLOSE IN 20 YEARS, surpassing the most recent high close of 272.19 in June of 1988. Platinum rose $15 to $871. Copper rose sharply to $1.3480 per pound. Commodities were strong across the board as they have been for some time.

So, what does the Fed come out with today:

June 26 - WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--The Federal Reserve can afford to be "patient" on interest rates as inflationary pressures continue to recede even as the U.S. economy is gathering momentum, Federal Reserve Governor Susan Bies said Thursday.

What are they smokin’ at The Fed?

Meanwhile, regard the CRB chart
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/RB/44

The silver move today was one of the most dramatic in years. Going into first notice day, any market can feel pressure from specs who are liquidating to avoid possible deliveries. Most specs will roll over from the near contract, in this case March, to a future one such as May, or sell out altogether. With the dollar rallying and gold sinking, many silver specs panicked this morning and sold. I suspect this was engineered by the big shorts as silver was due sharply lower right off the bat. This was the big shorts one big last chance to get out by covering from these panicked silver longs before they would have to deal with potentially serious delivery issues next week. It is now NITTY –GRITTY TIME!

After falling out of bed early, silver rallied back and after about two hours of trading began to inch up quietly, trading on its own and ignoring the gold/dollar action. Knowing first notice day was tomorrow and understanding how well silver has performed relative to gold, the light bulbs went off in my head we had a chance for something unusual to happen. Just to close higher on the day would have been a huge plus. For silver to go ballistic in the last 20 minutes is nothing short of sensational.

An important silver point. Not 500 lots traded between $6.58, basis May, and $6.70. There was nothing for sale. Yet, on the way this morning down, there was substantial two day business. This is happening more and more lately and is the opposite from what we saw for so many years when there would be good two way business on sharp rallies and then when silver dropped dramatically, there would be no bids. This is a sign this bull market is not only for real, it has a LONG way to go.

My rap for months has been touting the notion we have a squeeze coming in silver because so many large buyers are going to the Comex to find physical, as they cannot find it elsewhere. Too much quality smoke has come my way on this one via some very some sharp/connected Café members for this information to be ignored. The next two weeks will be critical in this regard. If a substantial amount of the Comex silver is taken by strong hand stoppers and the Registered Comex silver inventories are drawn down to a substantial degree, we are going to have some kind of silver fireworks. So far, so good. I want to stress the fact that today’s silver move is EXTRAORDINARY and portends for much higher silver prices in the weeks and months to come.

March silver
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SV/34

Get this. Gold closed in new low ground for its move down to these levels, while silver finished the day with its second highest close in 7 years.

As you know, one of my major themes for the past many weeks is The Gold Cartel is losing control of their silver scam/price suppression scheme because they are running out of physical to do the dirty. This sort of price action today is the cabal’s worst nightmare as it will surely attract attention to the precious metals, which the bad guys have spent so much time trying to prevent.

On that note, what great timing for the GATA ARMY. So many of you sent letters and emails to the authorities about the fraudulent price suppression scheme and what could happen as a result of the scam. So far I don’t know of anyone hearing back from the CFTC, Spitzer, Nymex, or Comex. We are not there yet, but if problems do occur, get ready to go into action again. I sick of these people dissing us, or ignoring us, when we are doing a public service.

The volatility in the commodity markets is something to behold. It is beginning to remind me of the late 1970’s. Take a look at this silver weekly and how the trading dynamics have changed these past weeks. Once again, it is evidence the crooks are nearing the end of their rigged rope. This recent volatility strong suggests the silver price managers are going down for the count.

Silver weekly
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SV/W

If silver closes at these levels tomorrow, it will be another new high weekly close. What a feat that will be after it traded at $6.38 and $6.27 on two different days this week.

The silver open interest dropped 4818 contracts yesterday to 113,331 on a bout of liquidation ahead of first notice day.

The gold open interest fell 2455 contracts to 239,216 which is nothing for such a big drop in the price of gold. This tells us our information was correct yesterday about the funds going short down at these price levels. I consider this to be very bullish, especially when taking into consideration what silver and other commodities are doing. The price of gold ought to turn around very soon and SOAR!

Gold rallied late today only because silver went bananas. We should have some kind of drama in the weeks ahead. Silver looks explosive. Meantime, The Gold Cartel is desperately trying to subdue the price of gold to continue to deceive the American public about the true inflation picture. Boy, what a fraud this is. Same reason they refuse to release the PPI. We have become an embarrassing Banana Republic with a clandestine Financial Market Mafia fiddling with our financial markets!

[curacanne]

was issen hier los, wo ist thai?

[curacanne]

tttthhhhaaaiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii

[superman6]

Die Metallpreise nehmen die Inflation vorweg.
Nur will die keiner wahrhaben.

Schaut euch Öl und sonst. Metalle ruhig mal an.

an thai

deine AGD-Mining hängen ja auch irgendwie mit
Cambrian zusammen.

Nochmal mein Tip zu Investika, bevor es im
März losgeht.

[ulfur]

Engpäße 2004 bei Rohstoffen?

Even more alarming is the rate of decline in supply, prompting Pierre Lassonde of Newmont to state, “at this rate there won’t be a pound of copper above ground on the planet in May.” China is one of the largest consumers of alumina, zinc, lead, and nickel as well. Lead has the lowest inventories since June, 1991. Nickel is a particularly vulnerable metal commodity today. Used primarily in stainless steel production, one week’s inventory (15,000 tonnes) above ground is now available. Stainless steel production in 2003 was up 8%, as was nickel consumption. China has added one million tonnes of stainless steel capacity for 2004, which requires an incremental 40,000 tonnes of nickel. The anticipated 2004 shortage of nickel is estimated by Inco at 75,000 tonnes, or 10% of annual demand. There are two major nickel mines expected to come on stream, Voisey Bay, and Goro, but not until 2H2006. China itself is not well endowed with resources, particularly the aforementioned. Moreover, what they do have is difficult to exploit, generally low grade, and located in remote areas suffering from poor infrastructure.

Aus:
The Great Inflation Train Wreck
2004: The Year of the Monkey
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/winter022504.html

[ulfur]

Platin bei 885

[powertrader79]

!

Dieser Beitrag wurde vom System automatisch gesperrt. Bei Fragen wenden Sie sich bitte an [e-mail]

[silbernd]

.....weißt Du was tabu ist?
in jedem thread den gleichen Mist zu schreiben

[bluemoons]

http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/special/goldreport04.aspx

[einmalpleitereicht]

ich machs noch mal.....


http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/

February 27 - Gold $396.10 up $1.30 - Silver $6.70 unchanged

Gold And Silver Poised to Rocket Higher

Don`t look back - something might be gaining on you.
Satchel Paige

Chop, chop, chop. That was the name of the gold game today. As expected after the late HUI action yesterday, both gold and silver were called lower – gold by $2 and silver by 10 cents. Gold went psychotic the rest of the session, trading up and down like a yo-yo. Some ECB official said there won’t be any rate cuts before summer and the euro reversed course from down to up. Gold followed, but all rallies were cut short. Each time gold poked its head up and made new highs, it would fall back violently. The gold trading range was a wide one as bullion put in a $381.80 low and a $397.80 high. In the end, the gold/dollar relationship worsened further. The dollar fell .37 to 87.42 and the euro gained .53 to 124.85.

What is most striking in the financial world these days is the stunning strength and volatility in commodity prices. April crude oil closed in new high ground at $36.16, up another 65 cents per barrel. Soybeans powered ahead again to $9.42 ½ cents per bushel, up 14 ½ cents. Platinum rocketed to $891, up $20 per ounce. The CRB itself made another 20-year high at 274.73, up 1.35.

We know there was new fund shorting yesterday, yet the open interest fell 5408 contracts to 233,858. This means other specs liquidated while cabal forces covered some shorts. The silver open interest dropped 913 contracts to 112,418.

There were 1933 silver deliveries. Now we have to see what happens to those deliveries in the weeks to come. If the silver in the Comex Registered category begins to disappear, we really have something. Deutsche Bank stopped 622 of the contracts. It’s very possible they are the ones taking silver for the European buyers as part of their $250 million silver purchase.

Silver made another new weekly high close.

The financial markets seem to be out of whack. Silver makes a new weekly high close for its move. Gold makes a new weekly low close. The CRB makes a new weekly high as do the bonds. If the economy is so good, which is powering the DOW, then why are long term rates so low? The US stock market is firm in general, but the DOG has now closed lower six weeks in a row. Very strange! Something is not right.

Gold
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/44

Silver
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SV/54

Bonds
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/TR/34

CRB
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/RB/44

March bonds closed at 114, up 1 5/32. I guess if the Fed says there is no inflation, there isn’t any, regardless of how high commodity prices go.

The silver action has been extremely powerful. We ought to see $7 next week and a close above $6.80 should propel silver to $7.50 for openers. Gold is the most undervalued commodity/financial item in the world right now. It should run back up to its $430 highs in fairly short order.
http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/

[einmalpleitereicht]

The John Brimelow Report

India buys; China cheats?

Friday, February 27, 2004

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $7.32, PM $ 7.99, with world gold at $394.50 and 392.80. High: well above legal import point. India will be an active importer at these levels.

TOCOM traded only the equivalent of 16,394 Comex lots (down 45%) with open interest falling 1,057 Comex lots. The active contract fell 3 yen and world gold slipped $1.50 from NY by the Tokyo close. (In NY on Thursday volume was estimated to be 62,000 contracts.)

The Shanghai Gold Exchange shows premiums for 99.95 and 99.99 gold of in excess of $7 an ounce, which is not credible. This calls into question whether this Exchange is real . Readers of these notes will be aware this has been a matter of concern for some time. There is a serous possibility that the Shanghai Gold Exchange is a Potemkin Village.

JB

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The DOW and DOG were respectively slightly higher and slightly lower.

Feb. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese manufacturers increased production at the fastest pace in four months in January and companies hired more workers, fueling a rise in household spending in the world`s second-biggest economy.
Production rose a seasonally adjusted 3.4 percent from December, the government said in Tokyo. The economy added 70,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate rose to 5 percent from 4.9 percent as more people sought work, a separate report said. Spending by households headed by a salaried worker rose 4.2 percent.

GATA’s Mike Bolser:

Hi Bill:
The Fed added $3.75 Billion in repos today Feb 27th 2004. This action caused the repo pool to rise to $35.25 Billion and also nudged the pool`s 30-day moving average up yielding a definite bottom pattern. The DOW continues to track sideways around 10,600 and I continue to forecast that it will continue to do so throughout March.

Of the three previous bottoms in the series, two are sharp (as this one appears) and one is rounded (just prior to the false Iraq War Rally). Noting this pattern I`m confident that the current bottom is a true turn around and we will either track flat in the repo pool 30-day ma or begin a slight rise.

More on interventional failure modes

This interventional experiment is so large and expansive, involving so many theaters of operation (interest rates, metals, energy, derivatives) that it is reasonable to guess that the weakest element in the Fed`s astonishing array of falsity will fail first. Whether that element is silver remains to be seen, but at the core of this government`s wrong-headed interventional policy is the assumption stated by Summers in Gibson`s Paradox and the Gold Standard:

"Determination of the general price level then amounts to the microeconomic problem of determining the relative price of gold"

http://www.goldensextant.com/commentary18.html#anchor196905

Greenspan, et. Al. have wagered everything, absolutely everything, that this arcane academic premise will remain true under all conditions, that the general price level (inflation) will stay down if gold is held down.

What they have failed to appreciate is that under their massive intervention, new entities have spring to life. Durable entities that recognize abnormal force applications, seek true value, and inevitably find it. Gibson`s Paradox operated well historically only through normal market cycles, but things are wholly different in today`s towering interventional charade.

Gold HAS been held down and yet we see the CRB at 20 year highs. This general price level (inflation) reality spells imminent doom for the policy that predicted the CRB (the general price level) wouldn`t rise if gold were held down. The Fed has failed in their grand scheme and they know it.

Put them on a suicide watch.
Mike

Chuck checks in:

Four out of five days this week we sold off on the close. It is annoying, but to me, positive. No one wants to go into the close with a position. And throw in the two previous Fridays, and we are close. Still very annoying. Chuck

But, there is no inflation, bing, bing, bing:

Feb. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Pacific Investment Management Co., the world`s largest bond mutual fund group, is making a bet that the Federal Reserve will belatedly acknowledge the threat of accelerating inflation.
That`s why Pimco, as the firm is known, purchased about $3 billion of U.S. Treasury inflation-linked securities at the government`s January auction and may buy more in the months ahead.
``The writing is on the wall,`` said John Brynjolfsson, 39, who oversees more than $10 billion of TIPS as managing director of Pimco`s Real Return Bond Fund in Newport Beach, California. ``Disinflation is near the end, and we are in the process of turning the corner and into a reflation environment.``

-END-

From The King Report:

PPI Held Hostage, Day 8.

The Kansas City Star’s Diane Stafford noticed something in a new BLS report. "Employers initiated more mass layoff actions in January than in any previous January in the nine-year history of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics` mass layoff record keeping…The higher counts were contrary to a general downward trend over the past year for both the number of mass layoff actions — defined as those affecting at least 50 workers at a single work site — and the number of initial jobless claims resulting from the actions…For January 2004, there were 2,428 mass layoff actions nationally, affecting 239,454 workers. In comparison, January 2003 recorded 2,315 actions, affecting 225,430 workers." How can this occur with that monstrous stimulus last year? Guess what happens without the juice?

"Manufacturing accounted for more than one-third of the layoffs nationally — 35 percent of the events and 37 percent of the individual unemployment claims….The government sector set a five-year record for the number of workers filing for unemployment in the month. Another sector that reported a higher number of initial claimants because of mass layoffs was the temporary help sector." Two of the leading engines of job creation last year, government and temps, are now in jettison mode. No wonder consumer confidence has collapsed. As Seinfeld says, "That can’t be good."

https://registration.realcities.com/reg/login.do?url=http%3A… http://www.bls.gov/mls/home.htm

From BLS: "Beginning with the release of data for January 2002 on February 28, 2002, the Mass Layoff Statistics program implemented the 2002 version of the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) as the basis for the assignment and tabulation of economic data by industry." BLS admits the change in classifications for industries occurred two years ago for workers. Why are those classifications now a problem for PPI? http://www.bls.gov/bls/naics.htm

"According to American Metal Market, a trade publication, the price of hot-rolled steel, one of the most widely used types, has soared by more than 80 percent in the last year, and by almost half since December; it now sells for about $480 a ton. Many steel makers have also begun to impose surcharges, typically around $40 a ton, because of the high prices of their raw material."

http://www.nytimes.com/auth/login?URI=http://www.nytimes.com…

Thursday’s WSJ contains an article on soaring lumber prices. The composite price for framing lumber is up 17% since December. Random Lengths reports the composite price of structural panels, which includes 11 products, is up 60% from December. The article quotes Toll Brother CEO Bob Toll as stating that new home prices in Pennsylvania are up 50% over the past 5 years. And PA is not exactly a hot spot like the US coasts. Yet BLS wants us to believe the major component of the CPI, with over a 40% weighting, are up only 2-3% the past several years.

http://users2.wsj.com/WebIntegration/WebIntegrationServlet?c…

Shortages of key industrial commodities could force production bottlenecks. It’s time for Econ 101. "Scarcity - The condition in which human wants exceed the available supply of goods, time, and resources. In a world without scarcity, there would be no economics. Shortage - The market condition existing when quantity demanded exceeds quantity supplied. Generally an increase in price will eliminate a

shortage." But not in a momentum-trading world.

http://ingrimayne.saintjoe.edu/econ/title_page/Glossary_2.ht…

The recent surge in industrial commodity prices, and central bank instigation or insouciance suggests that a 19th Century-like boom and flame-out bust could occur. During the 20th Century, central banks arrested booms or commodity inflation and later instigated a recovery after an adequate purge and readjustment. Now, the Fed isn’t likely to be the bubble prick. By abdicating their responsibility to halt dangerous excesses suggests they won’t be able to orchestrate a recovery if a bust occurs despite them.

-END-

Hi Bill - you`ll love this;
Maverick Steel Tube manufactures pipe for the oil and gas industry - last November prices for flat rolled steel were around $300 per ton and Nucor is a big supplier to them. Here is what has happened in the past three months :

-end of Dec Nucor announces a $20 per ton surcharge
-end of Jan Nucor announces $60 per ton increase
-for March Nucor has announced $100 per ton hike
-for April they are talking a $150 per ton hike

This from November to May flat rolled steel prices will move from $300 per ton to $630 per ton - and Nucor says that anyone who objects won`t get shipped!!

I can see the govt`s hedonic price adjuster on the verge of a nervous breakdown.
Best regards, Mark

On the silver front:

Hi Bill,
In case you are keeping score, I am taking delivery on 10 Silver contracts this morning. My broker expects me to be called on another 10 contracts on Monday which I expect to also take delivery. Just wanted you to know.
Mike

Café members in silver action:

Bill,
Attached please find some photo`s taken this morning from our latest IBI delivery right off the Comex. Guess it was just a coincidence that today is first notice day for March. We took delivery of these in December, it was interesting to note that they were all stamped 2003 from Mexico. Everything we took from previous shipments had much earlier year date stamps.

As a result of the manipulation we have become distrustful of everyone charged with fiduciary responsibilities associated with the Comex including the warehouses. Therefore we remove and store the silver ourselves.
Timothy P. Jones
South Dakota






Bill,
A friend of mine wanted to purchase silver coins from the Perth Mint in Australia. They quoted him $28 AUD/oz...that is $21.666 US $ per Oz.

Looks like commodities will LEAD gold and silver up...what a sorry state of affairs! My bank just called to tell me that my lean hogs were making a mess in the safe deposit box...so reluctantly I will have to sell them for the lower capital appreciation yielding precious metals!
Cheers
Adrian

Dear Bill, Until last week, the Australian Bullion Company always offered to buy back their own branded 5kg Bars at a premium over other brands. Now they are offering to buy all brands 5kg bars at the same price. This indicates to me they want silver from any source. A small but significant indication the supply is getting tight. Cheers Cary

GATA’s man down under:

G`day Bill
Another good read. 2 points:

-I`ve decided to do a daily email blitz of CFTC and NYMEX, but from different Hotmail addresses. Why? They likely have filters for pesky emailers. It doesn`t take long to set up a dummy account.
-To help newbies to Midas, whenever you mention gold/silver being smashed, trashed, belted, torn etc, could you please put in brackets a brief cause eg
"(by usual sales of futures and/or leasing)"? Why? For Cafe veterans you are preaching to the converted, but for newbies this concept of futures sales and leasing may be very new.
Regards, Sid

Wish I could help more in that regard, but most of the time I don’t know what sort of gold selling is bombing the market. Only a physical market trader could come up with that sort of information.

The hedging hangover continues:

LIMA, Peru, Feb 26 (Reuters) - A big loss on hedging on Thursday hurt an otherwise record 2003 profit at Peru`s biggest precious metals miner, Compania de Minas Buenaventura, and the company said it had sought in January to de-hedge its gold production.
Buenaventura said in a statement its 2003 net profit after the hedging provisions was 167 million soles ($48.2 million) after a profit of 396.3 million soles in 2002.

Buenaventura, a partner in Peru`s biggest gold mine, Yanacocha, said it took a 324 million soles ($94 million) provision for derivative instruments in the fourth quarter. The total hedging provision for 2003 was 617 million soles.

But it said that if those provisions were stripped out, net profit was a record 543 million soles in 2003, 37 percent higher than 2002, boosted by cost cutting, higher production and high international metals prices.

Buenaventura said it made a net loss of $5.7 million on hedging operations during the year for the execution of 251,500 ounces of gold and 3 million ounces of silver.

"In order to avoid the volatility introduced by continuous variations of `market-to-market value`, Buenaventura has converted two-thirds of its hedge book from derivatives into normal sales," it said in the statement.

"Finally, in an effort to de-hedge its gold production, in January 2004, Buenaventura purchased 120,000 ounces of gold committed at the lowest price of its hedge book, due on 2004 and 2005. This operation represented a disbursement of $10.4 million," it added.

Hedging -- a practice whereby companies lock in prices for their as-yet unmined gold -- scores when market prices are weaker but has lately become unpopular with investors who want to see the full benefit of today`s high gold prices….

-END-

A winner:

Bill,
Congratulations to Victoria Resources (VIT.V) for the results from their Mill Canyon project in Nevada`s Cortez District. We are most happy for their success as J-Pacific is also a landholder in the Cortez District. http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/040226/265836_1.html

< VIT opened today up 50 cents at $1.50 and never looked back. This is a good example of how hard it is to trade the junior stocks. If you give up a position for a trade, the benefits of good news and/or a higher gold could easily pass by you.
http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=VIT.V&d=t


Nick Ferris
J-Pacific Gold Inc.
[e-mail]
www.jpgold.com
1-888-236-5200
TSXV Symbol: JPN
OTC BB Symbol: JPNJF

What a fabulous time for those looking for entry points into buying the gold shares. The HUI (224.80, up 1.74) held key 220 support all week and looks poised to move much higher:

HUI
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?s…

The XAU closed at 99.80, up .73.

*The Bush Administration/Fed can only hide the real inflation story in the US so much longer.
*The real PPI will come out of the closet eventually.
*Silver is about to take off for the moon.
*The Gold Cartel is on its last legs as far as their suppression of the gold price is concerned.
Much fun ahead and money to be made.

Gold/silver and the shares remain THE historic investment opportunity of a lifetime.

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

MIDAS

Appendix

From fellow Cafe member Marcus Rodriguez:
I am in the process of forming an NASD or NYSE member broker/dealer specializing in providing gold investors with unique industry research, access to all major world exchanges, and a full array of gold securities including ETF’s, Mutual Funds, OTC, Listed Equities. The firm will make the case for gold and present it to retail and institutional investors – who are extremely under-weighted in most portfolios (i.e. CALPERS, UTIMCO, Etc…) If you are interested in participating in this venture please contact me at [e-mail]

-END-


GATA’s Chris Powell put out the following last night to his GATA list:

Heading for a fall, by fiat

The Economist
February 26, 2004
http://www.economist.com/finance/displayStory.cfm?story_id=2…

Is the problem with the dollar only that it is falling?

It has certainly been doing that. This month, it fell
to $1.29 against the euro. This is its lowest-ever
rate against the euro, and represents a decline of
19 percent since the beginning of 2003. In
trade-weighted terms, the dollar has fallen less over
the same period (15 percent), but mainly because
Asian central banks have been intervening heavily
to stem their currencies` rise against it. Of late, it
has been wobbling around unconvincingly: America
needs a weaker dollar to correct its
current-account deficit.

But given the dollar`s role as a currency of last
resort, some wonder if its decline heralds not just
an economic adjustment by the United States but
a crisis of sorts in the value of paper money itself.

Money in its present form is a relatively new
invention. For most of human history money meant
either gold or silver, either directly, or indirectly by
means of the "gold standard" which meant, at least
in theory, that all paper money was backed by gold.

Enthusiasm for the gold standard evaporated in the
1930s, when it made dreadful conditions worse. But
it was adopted in a watered-down version after the
Second World War, when only the dollar was backed
by gold. This arrangement made some sense, since
America held three-quarters of the world`s gold stock.

But it came to an end in 1971, when inflationary
pressures in America caused the country`s
manufacturers to become uncompetitive and forced
the country off the gold standard. Since then the
world has relied on "fiat money," so-called because it
is created by government fiat and is backed only by
the promises of central bankers to protect the value
of their currencies. It is the value of those promises
that some are now questioning.

Certainly, those promises have been worth only
much in recent years. In the early years of fiat
money, inflation took off, especially in America, in
part because of the two oil shocks of the 1970s.
This debased the value of the dollar, and the price
of gold climbed from $35 an ounce to $850.

It was only in 1979, in his famous "Saturday night
special," that Paul Volcker, then chairman of the
Federal Reserve, raised interest rates sharply to
clamp down on inflation. The gold price
subsequently fell sharply and in its place came a
bull market in government bonds that has, with a
few sharp interruptions, continued to this day.

Although central banks around the world still hold
about 30,000 tonnes of gold in their reserves,
many have been offloading their stocks over the
years. They can earn only a nugatory rate of
interest on these stocks (by lending them out)
compared with what they can earn on government
bonds. For most people, gold has been relegated
to the status, in the words of Keynes, of a
"barbrous relic"; its price has risen only feebly
when investors have fretted about inflation.

Those who doubt the continued worth of paper
money as a store of value point to two things.
The first is that the price of gold has been rising
even though official inflation is low. From $253
an ounce in the late 1990s, gold now fetches just
over $400 an ounce, and it rose as high as $430
an ounce this year.

It is not just the price of gold that has been rising:
so, too, have the prices of precious and base
metals. There may, of course, be many other
reasons for these rises. China`s rapidly expanding
economy is gobbling up metals and other
commodities for its factories. Moreover, the rise
in the price of commodities also reflects the
weakness in the dollar: these rises look much less
impressive when quoted in euros or yen. But the
rise in the price of gold in particular has raised
questions.

The biggest of these -- and the second main
reason for concern -- is the amount of debt that
rich-country governments have been running up.
America`s official budget deficit has surged in the
three years since George Bush became president,
to around $520 billion and climbing.

But this is just the shortfall this year. The
government`s total future liabilities are much larger.
In fact, according to a forthcoming book by
Laurence Kotlikoff, an economist, the present value
of the American government`s future obligations,
taking into account promised pensions and
health-care benefits, is a staggering $45 trillion.
European governments are only slightly better at
managing their budgets -- witness the breaching
of the single currency`s growth and stability pact.
Japan`s attempts to coax its economy back to life
have left it with a gross national debt of some
160 percent of GDP, the highest of any big country.
No country has tried harder to debase its currency.

In theory, such debts would not be tolerated for
long by investors, since the easy way out for central
banks is to "monetise" them with inflation. Bond
prices would fall (and thus yields rise) as investors
worried that they would be paid back in a debased
currency. But capital markets currently seem
oblivious to spiralling debts. At some 4 percent,
yields on 10-year American Treasury bonds are
close to their lowest in two generations, although
this is partly explained by huge purchases by Asian
central banks. Yields elsewhere are also very low,
nowhere more so than in Japan, where ten-year
government-bond yields are now 1.3 percent.

The problem may be that bond investors, far from
being farsighted, are in fact myopic, and are perhaps
being fooled by the temporary disinflationary effects
of excess capacity and debts built up over the bubble
years in both Japan and America. Perhaps, too,
investors have been lulled into a false sense of
security by the performance of central banks in
recent years, and the independence that has been
granted to many of them by governments.

But this very aura of inviolability may be storing up
problems, since it means that governments can
borrow still more at cheap rates. And if governments
then find themselves crushed by debt, you can rest
assured that this independence will be taken away.
And then, once again, the paper in your pocket will
only be as good as a politician`s promise.

[einmalpleitereicht]

Café members in silver action:

Bill,
Attached please find some photo`s taken this morning from our latest IBI delivery right off the Comex. Guess it was just a coincidence that today is first notice day for March. We took delivery of these in December, it was interesting to note that they were all stamped 2003 from Mexico. Everything we took from previous shipments had much earlier year date stamps.

As a result of the manipulation we have become distrustful of everyone charged with fiduciary responsibilities associated with the Comex including the warehouses. Therefore we remove and store the silver ourselves.
Timothy P. Jones
South Dakota

[ulfur]

@einmalpleitereicht

danke fürs Reinstellen

[ludopata27]

@eimalpleitereicht
beruhigend zu wissen, dass jemand da ist der Thai Gurus job mal eben übernehmen kann...danke!

[ludopata27]

@einmalpleitereicht

schön zu wissen, dass jemand da ist, der Thai Guru zur not mal vertreten kann...danke!

[Magor]

Daß wir mit dem Anstieg der Metallpreise erst ganz am Anfang einer sehr vielversprechenden Preisentwicklung stehen, zeigt auch folgend interessanter Bericht auf:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/lee022804.html

Zitat:
At this time we believe it`s a much safer play to leverage silver, the metal itself, than through the shares. We therefore recommend buying silver contracts at 50% margin for the aggressive investor, or straight bullion as a safe investment.


Silber wird in den verschiedensten Anlegerkreisen gerade jetzt erst entdeckt, jetzt, bei 6.70 USD!
Ob das wohl Preisunterstützende Entdeckungen sind ???
Was wird erst, wenn einige größere Fond mit nur einem Bruchteil ihres Kapitals partizipieren wollen???
Nein, partizipieren müssen!
Die machen sich nämlich lächerlich, wenn sie boomende Märkte verpassen!!!

Abwarten, was gerade nun kommen wird, wenn der anstehende Short-Squeeze in der Anlegerwelt Furore macht!


Grüße
Magor

[einmalpleitereicht]

Wallace Street Journal
David Bond
February 27, 2004

WALLACE, Idaho - Perhaps only the Sleepless of us here in the Silver Valley caught the hysterically funny nature of a snippet of news out of Russia last week. We saw it mentioned only in the Russian press - it escaped translation into words which might have raised a few eyebrows in the West.

But we miss nothing here in the Silver Valley - home of the world`s finest and largest deep-shaft primary silver mines. So for those of you who consider an eight-hour rack some kind of Constitutional right, we dutifully gather these snippets and pass them along to you. (And we find it not mildly disturbing that there is more thoughtful analysis and provocative, investigative reporting on America in Pravda, Rosbalt, the Moscow Times and the London Telegraph than there is in the Wall Street Journal [not to be confused with Wallace Street Journal] or the New York Times).

Herewith: Last week Aeroflot, the old Soviet Union`s flagship airline - the 80-year-old carrier still features the hammer and sickle in its logo - announced that come this fall, it will cease to post its fares in U.S. dollars and instead accept only Euro-based payments for travel. This, as the U.S. dollar has slumped 10 percent over the past year even against the lowly ruble.

The world`s last coal-powered airline, Aeroflot - were it an American carrier - we would say that it is the perfect combination of Northern charm and Southern efficiency. Anyone who has had the misfortune of flying on Aeroflot and lived to tell about it can regale you with tales of surly service, ratty cabins and terrifyingly fast approach speeds. Most of Aeroflot`s transports are rigged to be quickly converted to bomber duty and are so heavy with metal armor they`ve got a stall speed on the order of 300 knots. If there is a sober pilot in the cockpit of your TU or AN or Ilyushin, it is only because he is under-age and sitting on daddy`s lap.

When even Aeroflot won`t take U.S. dollars, that should tell you mountains about what`s going on in the world vis-à-vis the credibility of U.S. fiat currency. This is tantamount to being kicked out of a hotel on Mediterranean or Baltic while you`re still in your tux. (It will be time, soon enough, to ask my friends again at Norilsk Nickel in Russia when they will switch from US dollars to Euros. Last time we spoke on the subject, they said they had "no immediate plans" to go Euro, but that was six months ago, and much has happened since then).

The world should have been put on notice that when Nixon pulled out of the Bretton Woods agreement in 1971, the Fed Note`s value as its "reserve currency" would plunge to zilch. Thirty-odd years later, it`s in the process of doing just that. With all due respect to analyst Dennis Wheeler (not the Coeur d`Alene Mines CEO), it`s not foreign governments that are pulling the dollar down. They`re trying frantically to prop it up, because they hold trillions of the little devils in "reserves" and IOUs, and are watching their net worth circle the drain.How does this segue to the Silver Valley`s silver stash? Well, hang with me here.
Our dirty little secret is that the shredding Federal Reserve Note is the nicest advance 2004 Christmas present Greenspan and Bush could possibly have given us.

Current and necessary corrections in the gold market notwithstanding, thanks to the circling dollar we`re enjoying metal prices across the entire periodic table that promise a long bull run; old Spokane Stock Exchange issues that were a drug on the market a decade ago are seeing unprecedented interest. Long-somnambulant shares are trading in the tens, even hundreds of thousands per day. Folks are back in the market, promising stability and liquidity. Silver Buckle (SBUM) traded more shares Thursday than it averaged in a month two years ago.

Deals and projects up and down the Silver Valley continue to ripple. New Jersey (NJMC) has a new website and the beginnings of a new flotation circuit at its mill near the Sunshine. Atlas Mining (ALMI) is buying gadgets for its Utah clay deposit and there`s been some sniffing around its shaft south of Hecla`s Lucky Friday. Shoshone Silver (SHSH) is firming up its land position in the Pend Oreille/Lakeview district. Sterling (SRLM) got the Sunshine Mine`s chippy-hoist running last week after several months of dogged problem-solving, and former Sunshine hands Mike McLean and Jim Thomas are back on the payroll.
(You didn`t` hear it from us, but McLean`s and Thomas` reappearance suggests somebody at Sterling is taking a hard look at resuming the Consolidated-Silver Ramp (CSR) project at Sunshine. This would give unfettered rubber-tired access to the huge system of faults and veins around Sunshine`s old No. 10 shaft without the hassle of rehabilitating the shaft).

I am asked, repeatedly it seems these days, for specific Silver Valley stock picks. I don`t give `em, ain`t my job. What I can say is, look around the fault lines; if a property abuts or straddles a fault, odds are it will perform in a silver bull market. Consider also management: Are they sitting on their butts or are they actively looking to explore and develop their property and improve their reserves? Or are they waiting for somebody else to do it for them.

A recent write-up on a property here (we won`t name names) caused quite a stir because the author suggested that gee, in another 15-20 years, it might be another Sterling. Sure. In another 100 years, if you can hold it that long, there`s probably a moose pasture on the dark side of the moon that could make you rich. Big deal. Look for land position, both in relation to the faults and in proximity to active operations, and for what management is doing NOW.

Silver`s in the cat-bird`s seat. Say we`re right, that the dollar continues to tank. The Poor Man`s Gold is a natural safe haven for a shrinking dollar or during what many anticipate to be a forthcoming spate of inflation. On the other hand, if the economy improves, silver`s fates as an industrial commodity with unprecedented versatility and necessity are sealed. Add to this the fact that silver is the least exposed of all industrial minerals to a downturn in the current Asian (Chinese) "miracle) and you`ve got a recipe for a winner.

Interesting, watching the charts this Thursday. Silver slid down all day long; the minute the Comex closed, it shot up 19 cents and may well have broken free of gold. What does this tell me? It tells me that Ted Butler`s silver version of GATA, a conspiracy of short-sellers, may be alive and well on the Comex, but that their reach does not extend to the overseas markets and exchanges. The bastards are outnumbered, and their judgment day is nigh.

David Bond
February 26, 2004

[curacanne]

HALLO, THAIGURUR IST WEG.
ich will ja nicht als totaler pessimist aussehen, aber es mach tmich doch stutzig mit that. ich habe mir mal ueberlegt, dass die rohstoffbranche moeglicherweise auch nicht so das gelbe vom ei ist, wer will zb ueberpruefen, das warren buffet tatsaechlich in silber eingestiegen ist?
denn wenn ich mir so die anderen aktien ansehe, dann laufen die teilweise sehr gut;
vielleicht findet sich ja jemand, der mein misstrauen etwas beseitigen kann.
cura

[ulfur]

"Beinahe kontinuierlich ging es vergangene Woche mit Platin aufwärts. Mit 885 $ je Unze erreichte das Metall schließlich am Freitag ein neues 24-Jahres-Hoch. Es waren vor allem Käufe an der Tokioter Börse, die das Metall nach oben trieben. Eine Vorhersage der weiteren Entwicklung fällt Händlern schwer. Insgesamt sieht es jedoch nach einer Fortsetzung des Aufwärtstrends aus, allerdings mit geringerem Tempo. Ein Übersteigen der Marke von 887 $ ist dabei nicht sehr wahrscheinlich.

Wolfgang Wrzesniok-Rossbach ist Produktmanager Edelmetalle und Rohstoffe bei Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein in Frankfurt."

Am gleichen Tag, an dem der Artikel in der financial times steht, steigt Platin über 890 $. Pech gehabt, Herr Wrzesniok.

[gamman1]

@curacanne

Wenn Warren Buffet ein paar Millionen verliert sind das Peanuts.

Scherz beiseite.
Schau mal in den Thread "Aufruf an User Btrend"

Gruß
JN

[arobat]

[ulfur]

"Ein Übersteigen der Marke von 887 $ ist dabei nicht sehr wahrscheinlich."Wolfgang Wrzesniok-Rossbach 1.3. ftd

[kaepntnemo]

#8803&ff,
silber
01.03.04 15:01 Uhr
6,98
+5,28 % [+0,35]
gruss an nw & magor
- der herr hildebrandt wird sich jetzt evtl. etwas aergern ueber seine schiefgegangenen profezeiungen. aber vielleicht wollte er ja damals nur billig einsammeln ...

-nemo-

[bluemoons]

http://www.contrarianthinker.com/Trace%20Elements.htm

[einmalpleitereicht]

uuups ...
die vom http://www.lemetropolecafe.com #
haben ein Sunday Special gemacht und ich habs verpennt.

Um 24.00uhr stell ich euch den Montagsbericht rein


---------------

March 1 - Gold $396 - Silver $6.70

Sunday Special - Have The Sinister Silver Shorts Been Suckered?

Avoid having your ego so close to your position that when your position falls, your ego goes with it.
Colin Powell

Thought it might be a good time to elaborate on the silver squeeze story I have been talking about for a couple of months now. So far, so good, especially how silver has traded relative to gold this past week. The KEY as to why the silver price should SOAR is what is going on behind the scenes! It has to do with input sent your way from Café sources, which so FEW seem to be privy to.

For years The Gold Cartel and its allies have artificially held down the price of silver in order to keep attention away from the artificially suppressed gold price.

The cabal couldn’t have gold at yesteryear’s $280 and silver at $9. Wouldn’t look kosher. Unlike gold, GATA had no idea over the years how the cabal forces accomplished this aspect of their mission. All I ever knew was that is was going on and what Ted Butler and David Morgan had to say always made a lot of sense:

a small number of silver shorts were controlling the market with derivatives positions way too large for the amount of silver they could ever deliver as part of their commitments as qualified hedgers.

A little over two months ago MIDAS began to receive information that something dramatic was beginning to develop in silver. There was talk of buying up whatever physical was left on the market. Several worldly sources fed me information that buying silver in size was becoming extremely difficult. For new Café members, or for those who would live to review some of this, go to:

February 8 - Gold $403.20 - Silver $6.25
Silver Squeeze!/Eliott Spitzer/ Silver Letters
http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/Pfv1.cfm?pfvID=3593&SearchPar…

-END-

*We know the market is so tight even the world’s largest silver producer, Mexico’s Penolas, wasn’t thrilled about supplying 1 million ounces for a special project with ECU Silver, led by their extremely able CEO Michel Roy.

*We heard one European group was going to the silver derivatives market to secure future supply because they couldn’t find enough physical to satisfy a $250 million buyer order.

*One other European group was said to be buying up all the silver they could find on that continent.

That is a substantial amount of smoke and, of course, there has been much more anecdotal evidence brought to your attention by other Café members of a growing tight silver market over the past two months.

The conclusion to this extraordinary and consistent information sent the Café``s way is the physical silver market is about to seize up. AND, the only SIGNIFICANT supply left in the world at these prices is in the Comex, more appropriately known as "CRIMEX," warehouses. This is part of THE silver The Gold Cartel/silver price manipulators used to rig the price the past few years. My speculation over the past two months is the bad guys are hitting the wall and are going to be found out because willing buyers are coming to the Comex to go after the last of the readily available silver hoard, the last of the large concentrated silver supply left on earth.

Normally, one talks about a squeeze of sorts if there were NO deliveries, ie. those holding the supply realize a shortage and are holding out for higher prices. The normal physical market player might know the value of their physical inventory, thus they would hold on to what they have. In silver’s case, 1933 deliveries were issued this past Friday, or around 9 million ounces. Compare that to the 1 million ounces Penolas did not want to part with! Such a grandiose delivery by the shorts would hardly lead one to believe the price of silver is going to soar due to a shortage.

However, it is my suspicion the silver crooks, who have violated anti-trust laws for so long, have no idea what is about to hit them. Namely, extremely large buyers are going after the remainder of their supply because they cannot secure it anywhere else in SIZE. If this is the case, then the REGISTERED Category of silver at the Comex, the silver available for delivery, must begin to disappear. There were 53,206,041 million ounces of registered silver on record going into this delivery period. If they do begin to dwindle in a substantial way, the crooks are going to go, "Uh-oh." They will then realize they have been had and some will begin to cover rather frantically. That is when the price of silver will begin to SPIKE!

The fact that there were 1933 deliveries on Friday and the price rallied after the notice news became known to the big silver players is BULLISH. Heavy deliveries normally would depress a market which rallied like silver did on the day before, Thursday. Instead, at one point, silver was up 8 cents on the day before the buying dried up, causing silver to pull back. That is only normal, as silver has failed at those technical price levels for many weeks. I will modestly add to my silver position on a close above $6.80.

The silver open interest in the March contract as of Thursday night was 7747 contracts. I am not sure of the details (to be found out tomorrow), but this means that 20 to 25% of this open interest was delivered. That is substantial. The problem for the bad guys is that if there is a bunch of aggressively willing STOPPERS (those who want the silver), they are going to gulp. If the silver available for delivery disappears in the next two weeks, it will only take a minimal amount of money to squeeze the May contract, or what is left of the March one. The silver crooks will know the jig is up and my guess is they will panic. If the cabal forces do not have the silver required to meet the surging demand, they will have no choice, EVEN if Uncle Sam has been backing this anti-American, corrupt operation.

It is entirely possible the silver price manipulators don’t realize what is coming, OR they put out this the latest deliveries in some kind of bluff maneuver. If it is a bluff, my input says they are going to be called on it. Yep, Nitty-Gritty Time!

One more thing. The commodity house where I am standing for delivery of a March contract at the moment only took a few deliveries. Regardless, I was stunned to see the latest delivery date was only as of July 2003. Usually, when there are HEAVY deliveries, the date would be almost current or, in this silver case, as of February 26, 2004. It`s a wee bit too early to tell how significant this is. However, I would love to know the current dates of others standing for delivery. Don`t need the name of the house, just the delivery date. If the silver available for delivery disappears in the next two weeks, it will only take a minimal amount of money to squeeze the May contract, or what is left of March. The shorts cuould be cooked, if so!

One of MIDAS` long-running themes is the gold price has more to do with a surging physical market going against the heinous Gold Cartel than it has to do with the dollar. Most analysis equates the gold price rise solely with that of a weakening dollar. As you know, my feeling is The Gold Cartel uses this common perception to constrain the rising gold price as best they can and whenever they choose to do so. With commodity prices doing what they are, this misunderstood relationship regarding gold and the dollar should be close to ending. If I am right on this one, gold will break loose and run higher in the months to come no matter what the dollar does.

The strength of my argument becomes apparent when looking at the gold/silver weekly charts. They are totally different. Silver just made a new weekly HIGH and gold just made a new weekly LOW. Yet, if you have listened to the standard pundit commentary about gold and silver the past few weeks, most of all of the reasons for gold and silver doing what they did were related to the dollar action. Then how can silver have done so well, while gold was doing so poorly?

Gold weekly
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/W

Silver weekly
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SV/W

The answer is simple. The Gold Cartel crooks are running of enough PHYSICAL silver to continue their scam!

This is why all your efforts contacting the CFTC, Eliot Spitzer, NYMEX and the Comex are going to pay off. This time, thankfully, we have the BIG MO going for us.

Once we are shown to be right on silver, which is why the GATA ARMY’s efforts are so critical, we can launch another assault on the same authorities about what is going on in the gold market. That is why we must persevere and continue to pound away at the authorities with letters and emails. If you have not done your part yet, it is time to do so.

Contacts:

The Honorable Eliot Spitzer
Attorney General
State of New York
120 Broadway
New York, NY 10271

February 10, 04

James Newsome
Chairman, CFTC
[e-mail]

Dr. Michael Gorham
Director of Market Oversight, CFTC
[e-mail]

To: NYMEX/COMEX

Vincent Viola
Chairman
[e-mail]

Michael Steinhause
Vice-Chairman
[e-mail]

Christopher Bowen
General Counsel
[e-mail]

Thomas Lasala
VP - Chief Regulatory Officer
[e-mail]

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

Are the Japanese paying the US back for Pearl Harbor – by buying our bonds with their trillions of yen:

February intervention 3.34 trillion yen

Japan used 3.34 trillion yen in February to intervene in the currency market to keep the yen from rising against the dollar, the Finance Ministry said Friday. This brought the total amount of funds used for such operations from the beginning of the year to 10.49 trillion yen. Japan used a record 7.15 trillion yen in January to stem the yen`s rise. A stronger yen hurts the nation`s exports, the main driver of the nation`s economy. The Japan Times: Feb. 28, 2004

GATA’s Mike Bolser:

Hi Bill:
The DIVG`s all-important 200-day moving average remains in a now conspicuous
linear up phase to a higher defense level.

Note the rate of increase or slope angle of the yellow trace. It is higher than any other phase since the Euro and dollar were last at parity on December 5th 2002 and the striking linear pattern is telling a tale.

I have written that the Fed uses the 200-day moving average of gold to gauge its success or lack thereof. We see here in the DIVG a linear pattern very suggestive of a retreat to higher ground in a measured steady manner.

Because the 200-day ma is so smooth and linear I`m even more convinced that the day-to-day gold action has a false randomness built-in by the Fed (as the repo pool dailies exhibit).

The primary dealers would, under this hypothesis, receive daily and if needed, hourly marching orders to sell or buy gold (a green or red light on their traders computer screens). The resulting prices and rates of change in gold are then fed to a computer that measures how far off or on the planned path the gold price actually is. Changes are then ordered with periodic "mid-course corrections".

The final result would be a random daily pattern that would seem normal but a very smooth 200-day ma for the metric that counts for their derivatives (if I`m really correct), the DIVG.

Where will the 200-day ma level off? I don`t know but 340 is looking better and better as a defense point. Time will tell.
Mike







SILVER NEWS:

Hello Bill ,
Just in regaurd to buying 1 oz silver coins from the Perth mint , they usually sell for a big premium and are more of a " Collectors Item " ( Nothing of this nature ever is ) They are beautiful coins , 9999 silver , but just at a premium , presumably for income and production and marketing costs for the mint . Notably though , even Aus Bullion Co sells a 1 oz silver bar for $20 Aus . You just cant get silver at decent prices in pure form unless you go for bullion . I just noticed the bit on the buyback for silver at the same price too .

In 1966 , the first Australian 50 cent coin was round and contained 80% silver . I had no trouble picking these up in quantity at about 10% on spot silver prices about a year ago from a coin dealer . Apart from their purity , I believe the 1966 50c piece to be the Australian equivalent of the silver eagle or round .

On a further note , I had started to wonder what the effects of the tightness of the silver market would have on Platinum , because I assume this market to be tiny , well it looks like I`m getting my theorised answer . Anyway , I can`t even buy 1 oz platinum bars from Aus Bullion Co ( They are sending me the last 2 of their Perth mint 1/2 ounce coins - they are not produced anymore ) The smallest bars they have then are 1/2 kilo , so then you are looking at $16,000+ Aus per bar. I will have to buy from Kitco for the small bars .

I noticed the Palladium chart rocketed up around the same time the info was going out about the buying group not being able to get any silver too . Palladium and its Hydrogen qualities must surely have a big role for the future .
Thanks , Chris Shuter


Hi Bill,
I`ve been purchasing gold on E-bay along with taking delivery of 100 oz. of gold and 5,000 of silver from blancahrd suppliers. But look what is happening now on E-bay. All who have purchased and those who haven`t done so. please be careful, the shortages are starting to show up in the strangest places....
Tigger_T_Bounce…

Hey Bill,
Wanted to let you know that I recently ordered 40 kilo of Silver in the Netherlands with Engelhard-Clal, one of the biggest precious metal refiners in the world. It took almost 1 month before they delivered me the silver. When I contacted them and asked why, they told me the bars had to come all the way from Spain. In the past I was used to get as much as I want at the dutch refiner, sometimes had to wait 2 weeks but this was only because they had to melt some silver grain into new bars. So why it had to come all the way from Spain this time is still a big question mark for me. But besides their choice for Spain it would have been a lot easier and closer to The Netherlands if they ordered it from Engelhard-Clal`s headquarters in France (Paris). So after 1 month wait I am in the possession of some spanish silver bars.
Ron

Some goodies from the silver GURU, David Morgan:

Bill,
Just finished my March report on the silver market and discussed your efforts and let me thank you officially in your Midas. Things are shaping up strongly and I also received the fact that one of my early subscribers that started a LLC and began taking delivery off the COMEX has recently obtained delivery and all bars were new. This subtle point is some indication the supply line is tight.

I received so many emails about the Tim Wood posting of the Andy Smith presentation, part of my work from the March issue is below. This is a small clip from the actual March issue.

Andy Smith the UK Bear!

One point that Mr. Smith made that seemed to make its way to the internet very rapidly (by Tim Wood of Mineweb) is a comment that Andy said that there is 43 years worth of silver above ground now. It must be clarified that this is the total amount of silver mined in recorded history, but in no way is this much silver available to the marketplace. This has been addressed in the past by silver-investor.com, but obviously needs to be addressed again. As has been stated earlier a physicist would state that all silver that has been mined throughout history still exists and this is true from a purely scientific point of view.

The reality is much different because most applications for silver are not economic to retrieve the silver. Simply stated, you would not be willing to melt down a $100 cell phone to retrieve three cents worth of silver. Nor would you do it for almost all electronic applications. The energy costs to retrieve the small amount of silver make it uneconomic. The value of the product is far above the silver content. Taken to the extreme even if silver were worth two hundred dollars per ounce, the amount of silver in the cell phone still would still represent only 1% of the total cost of the phone. So, from a totally practical common sense point of view that silver is consumed. Again it exists but certainly any thinking person can determine it is not coming back to the market.

It was my perception that during this presentation several immediately asked that he (Andy Smith) could not possibly mean that amount of silver was available, and actually he implied that is was available. In my opinion, he lost a great deal of creditability right at that moment. This is my thought on the matter, most in the room are very well studied in the silver market and whether Andy Smith was joking or not could not be determined by me, it seemed as if he were completely serious.

Now, let us discuss two areas of the silver market that seem to be very economic but are actually more complex than a cursory look at the silver market might entail. This area is the silver jewelry and silverware market. Although both of these areas have very high unit value and are available to the market, it must be determined at what price. Silverware for example has a premium currently at the dealer level of approximately 100% greater than the current spot price. So Mr. Smith might consider selling his grandmothers silverware at a price of $6.50 U.S. any thinking person would consider the fact that the melt value (bid price) of the silverware is far, far lower than the price paid. This is not even considering historic, sentimental, or artistic value possibilities. Would some of this silver become available to the market, certainly but for practical purposes not until silver is much higher perhaps $15.00 per ounce U.S.

The same logic applies to the silver jewelry market outside of the Asian markets. In Europe and North America the jewelry is priced much higher than the melt value and therefore is not economic or likely to come back on the market unless substantially higher prices are achieved.

Dream the impossible Dream
My best to you always,
David Morgan
Website: http://www.silver-investor.com
[e-mail]

Also sent our way from David:
Thank God I’m in Silver Boy
To be sung with John Denver’s ‘Thank God I’m a Country Boy’

Well tradin’ in Silver is not laid back
Better than tech stocks that ain’t comin’ back
All metals goin’ rise Comex goin’ crack
Thank God I’m in Silver boy!

Well hoarding bars and coins never did me no harm
Burying it with the family all over the farm
The dollar’s last days will not be a charm
Thank God I’m in Silver boy!

Well I bought a Silver mine never had to dicker
When suns comin’ up got Kitco in the ticker
Shortin’ ain’t nothin’ but a funny funny kicker
Thank God I’m in Silver boy

Well life will be fun Silver to the moon
Spitzer on the case Crimex gone by June
Looking to be driving that red Ferrari soon
Thank God I’m in Silver boy!

When the tradin’s all done and dollars sinkin’ low
Print out Butler’s latest and take it nice and slow
Days of the cartel are getting mighty low
Thank God I’m in Silver boy

Well I bought a Silver mine never had to dicker
When suns comin’ up got Kitco in the ticker
Shortin’ ain’t nothin’ but a funny funny kicker
Thank God I’m in Silver boy
I’d trade Silver contracts night and day if I could
But my wife and the doctor wouldn’t take it very good
Tradin’ when I can taking profit when I should
Thank God I’m in Silver boy!

The cartels on the run and the crooks are in jail
Manipulations gone and Silver’s not for sale
Don’t tell the feds it’s stashed under a bale
Thank God I’m in Silver boy

Well I bought a Silver mine never had to dicker
When suns comin’ up got Kitco in the ticker
Shortin’ ain’t nothin’ but a funny funny kicker
Thank God I’m in Silver boy

Well I wouldn`t trade my wife for gold or jewels
Don’t put it past me cuz I’m I a precious metal fool
Never sell short is the golden rule
Thank God I’m in Silver boy

Well I bought a Silver mine never had to dicker
When suns comin’ up got Kitco in the ticker
Shortin’ ain’t nothin’ but a funny funny kicker
Thank God I’m in Silver boy

Regards,
Jonathan Carlson
Calgary, Canada


On to the bigger picture:

Bill,
Just like in gold, Midas/GATA is about the only place that is telling the unvarnished inflation story. I think the gist of what I`ve been thinking about is that the administration is re-labeling inflation as GDP growth. That is why we keep hearing these great numbers on the news.

The BLS has two choices for how to categorize any measured increase in the economy’s dollar volume â€" either as growth (good) or inflation (bad). They have chosen to represent inflation as near to zero. The increased dollar volume of activity must therefore show up in the growth column, since it has to be accounted for somewhere. So you get inflation being called growth. The whole thing is a sham designed to keep the voters muddled. It also partly explains why so much "growth" produces so few jobs.

For GATA, the $64,000 question is, can the "false economy" avoid collapsing before November? If those of us who believe in truth and fairness can succeed in toppling the silver conspiracy in the next couple of months, we may have a wider impact than anticipated. Of course, with these stakes, we should not be surprised by anything the Cabal does to supress gold and silver.
Best wishes always,
Peter Rhalter


Bill, I think the gist of what I`ve been thinking about is that the administration is re-labeling inflation as GDP growth. That is why we keep hearing these great numbers on the news. The whole thing is a sham designed to keep the voters muddled and partly explains why so much "growth" produces so few jobs. The BLS has two choices for how to categorize any increase they measure in the economy`s dollar volume — growth (good) or inflation (bad). They have chosen to represent inflation as near to zero. The increased dollar volume of activity must therefore show up in the growth column, since it has to be accounted for somewhere. So you get inflation being called growth The $64,000 question is, can the "false economy" avoid collapsing before November? It may be that those of us who believe in truth and fairness will be surprised by what an impact our "free silver" campaign will have. Best wishes always, Peter Rhalter

He’s BAAACK! MIDAS lit into Mike Norman months ago for his illiterate stance on gold and recommending Newmont Mining as a short at $30. That was before its run to $50. Never once did I read about this meathead telling his followers he was dead wrong and to cover. The guy makes me sick to my stomach, especially since he receives so much coverage when GATA is not even allowed to be mentioned by the mainstream financial press.

http://www.nypost.com/business/19285.htm

GOLD RUSH MAY STALL AS FALLING BUCK REBOUNDS

By MIKE NORMAN

February 29, 2004 -- Gold prices have jumped 50 percent since November 2001 and some individual gold mining stocks are up much more, but some new developments suggest that the future may be somewhat less shiny for the precious metal.

There are lots of reasons behind the rise in gold, but you can mostly chalk it up to a falling dollar, declining central bank gold sales and reduced hedging by mining companies.

Those same factors, though, are likely to lead gold prices right back down from their lofty levels.

Let`s start by looking at the dollar. The greenback has been falling since February 2002, and the decline accelerated last fall when the G-7 gave a nod to weaker buck.

A falling dollar raises inflation fears and gold is typically considered a hedge against inflation, so not surprisingly, investors started buying and gold rose.

But the G-7 may have just told the markets that "enough is enough." At its recently concluded meeting in Boca Raton, the group sent a message that a further weakening in the dollar would not be tolerated.

Some central banks, like the Bank of Japan, have been backing this view with hefty dollar purchases.

Investors may be starting to pay attention. In the past week, the dollar has risen nearly 4 percent against the yen and about 2.5 percent against the euro. A dollar rebound would temper the whole inflation argument, making gold less appealing for some investors.

Another bearish development could be the renewal of the so-called "Washington Agreement." The original agreement, which was signed in 1999, limited European Central bank gold sales over a five-year period.

It was a significant step in halting the slide in prices. European central banks hold over 13,000 tons of gold and they had been steady sellers for years. They could crush the price of gold if they wanted to.

The Washington Agreement will probably be renewed this year, but not without increases in official selling quotas. Germany has asked that it be allowed to sell 600 tons of gold. That compares with a measly 29 tons that it sold over the past five years.

Other European countries will probably follow Germany`s lead because it makes sense for them to do so. Selling gold is a politically painless way for countries like Germany, France and Portugal to pay down their deficits and avoid fines for having breached mandated deficit limits.

Finally, there was the report last week from Virtual Metals, a gold industry consultant in London, saying that some mining companies may be getting back into the hedging game. When a mine hedges it essentially sells future production now, either by using the futures markets or through other, complex financial arrangements. This action tends to have a depressing effect on the price of gold if enough mines do it.

According to Jessica Cross, Virtual Metals` CEO, "Smaller companies have started to hedge again to finance new exploration projects. We may already be poised on the verge of a new renaissance for gold hedging, albeit of a more modest and defined purpose than in previous years."

This is important because it would represent the first time in nearly two years that producers become active sellers again in the gold market.

Add it all up and the picture is starting to look a little top heavy, suggesting that gold`s luster may soon be about to fade.

MIKE NORMAN is an international economist and the Founder and Publisher of the Economic Contrarian Update. He is also a Fox News Business Contributor and a regular on The Cost of Freedom.

Allow me to add to Mike Norman’s bio:

The guy is a raving nitwit and a blessing to the gold camp who are looking for a signal of a significant bottom. Norman is best known in the MIDAS world as THE man to fade when it comes to the precious metals market.

Tell him I said so.

PS: If this isn’t a MAJOR GOLD BUY SIGNAL right NOW, there never was one.

Oh well, hope you are all enjoying a wonderful weekend. Much fun and money to be made for our camp in the weeks and months ahead.

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

MIDAS

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

[superman6]

Hatte Inflation nicht auch schon mal was mit Gold zu tun?

01.03.2004/18:04:12



Deutsche Anleihen: Im Minus wegen wachsender Inflationssorgen in den USA

FRANKFURT (dpa-AFX) - Der deutsche Rentenmarkt hat am Montag nach positiv aufgenommener US-Konjunkturdaten deutlich nachgegeben. Der richtungsweisende Euro-Bund-Future FGBL032004F.DTB verlor bis 17.40 Uhr 0,12 Prozent auf 115,66 Punkte. Kurz vor der Veröffentlichung der US-Daten hatte der Bund-Future noch mit 115,91 Zählern sein Tageshoch erreicht.
Anleihenexperten führten den Rückgang in erster Linie auf den US-Einkaufsmanagerindex für Februar zurück. Der am Rentenmarkt viel beachtete Preisindex stieg von 75,5 Zählern im Januar auf 81,5 Punkte und damit auf den höchsten Wert seit 1995. "Das deutet auf wachsenden Inflationsdruck hin", sagte ein Händler. Dies habe die Anleihen belastet./rw/zb

[Magor]

@ Arobat

so´n Kleinen hab ich auch : - )


allerdings, meiner ist in Juchroo bemessen ...
und dieser klitzekleine Chart zeigt dennoch deutlich, daß Silber nunmehr nicht nur bei fallendem USD,
sondern auch bei steigendem USD nach oben strebt!
Die 7.50 USD sind nur noch eine Frage von wenigen Tagen!

...


In Juchroo kommt Silber und auch Gold langsam, aber sicher ebenfalls zu strahlendem Glanze!!!


@ KptnNemo,
Gruß zurück, und gemeinsame Freude an Hildebrandts Fehlschlag : - ))
Du meinst, der wollte nur billig einsammeln .. : - (
nein,
die Cleverness traue ich ihm bei seinen Schieflagen nicht zu ...
da waren noch einige solche Neunmalweise ...
die schreiben allerdings derzeit auch etwas weniger ...

[ulfur]

Erster Test bestanden ...

von Martin Weiss

In der letzten Februar-Woche mussten die deutschen Standardwerte leichte Verluste hinnehmen. Letztlich hielt aber die Widerstandszone bei 3980–4000 Punkten. Wie auch immer, im gesamten Monat Februar konnte der Dax seinen Höhenflug nicht mehr fortsetzen. Im Gegenteil, nunmehr ist er in eine Seitwärtsbewegung eingetreten. Und es ist nicht unwahrscheinlich, dass ein Ausbruch nach unten bevorsteht. Dies nicht zuletzt auch deswegen, zumal einige Index-Schwergewichte wie zum Beispiel SAP oder Siemens charttechnisch nicht den besten Eindruck hinterlassen.

Zwar konnte im Nasdaq in den letzten Tagen auch die 2000-Punkte-Marke verteidigt werden, aber einige größere Titel wie zum Beispiel Intel scheinen aktuell technisch angeschlagen zu sein.

In diesem Kontext sei auch auf den Dow Jones Transport Index, der typischerweise eine Art "Frühindikator"-Funktion innehat, verwiesen. Seit zwei Monaten vollzieht dieser Index die Aufwärtsbewegung nicht mehr mit, eher das Gegenteil ist der Fall.

Sicherlich, die momentanen Wirtschafsdaten sprechen insofern für viele Aktien in diesem Segment eine klare Sprache. Die aktuellen Auftragseingänge, speziell bei Flugzeugen, stimmen sehr nachdenklich. Gewiss, es mag dafür auch saisonale Gründe geben, aber der Faktor Energiekosten spielt in diesem Zusammenhang auch eine gewaltige Rolle. Und es gibt auch überhaupt keine Anzeichen dafür, dass der Ölpreis sich in Bälde abschwächen wird. Es sieht eher danach aus, dass möglicherweise schon mittelfristig die 40 $ je barrel überschritten werden können.

Und, es sollte immer beachtet werden, dass es momentan im Nahen Osten relativ ruhig ist. Nicht auszudenken, wenn es bspw. in Saudi Arabien zu politischen bzw. sonstigen Verwerfungen kommt.

Beobachten Sie auch in den nächsten Tagen und Wochen genau die Entwicklung beim Ölpreis!

Mit das Top-Thema der letzten Tage war die Sorge des deutschen Bundeskanzlers wegen der Stärke des Euro im Verhältnis zum $. Bisweilen wurde gar von der EZB eine Senkung des Leitzinses verlangt, um den Aufwärtstrend des Euro zu stoppen.

Gewiss, die US-Währung konnte ein wenig zulegen. Von 1,292 $ je Euro bis auf 1,238 US-Dollar. Charttechnisch gilt es hier, die 1,235 $ auf Tages-Schlusskursbasis genau im Auge zu behalten. Sollte diese nach unten gebrochen werden, könnte die Erholung der US-Währung bis in den Bereich 1,18–1,19 $ je Euro weitergehen.

Aber, um es erneut zu betonen: dabei handelt es sich nur um eine temporäre US-Dollar-Aufwertung. Der MEGA-Trend der Dollarschwäche ist noch lange nicht beendet, zumal sich an den fundamentalen bzw. strukturellen Gründen nichts geändert hat. Parallel zur leichten Aufwärtsbewegung des US-Dollars verläuft gerade die Konsolidierung beim König der Währungen, sprich beim Gold.

In der vergangenen Woche ging der Goldpreis bis auf die starke Widerstandsmarke von 390 $ je Feinunze zurück, welche erfolgreich verteidigt werden konnte. Sicherlich, im Zuge einer weiteren Dollar-Stärke ist es durchaus möglich, dass der Goldpreis ganz kurzfristig möglicherweise die 390 $ unterschreitet. Diese Bewegung sollte dann aber wirklich zu antizyklischen Käufen genutzt werden.

Es kann nicht oft genug herausgestellt werden, dass die aktuellen Preise für eine Feinunze Gold in Euro zu physischen Käufen geradezu einladen. Es sei denn, sie glauben, dass die deutschen Staatschulden, die Experten zufolge bei rund fünf Billionen Euro liegen, tilgbar sind ...

[ulfur]

Es ist Zeit, das Geld zurückzuzahlen

von unserem Korrespondenten Bill Bonner

Es ist Zeit, das Geld zurückzuzahlen.

Nicht nur Deutschland hat mit riesigen Haushaltsdefiziten zu kämpfen. Auch die USA – und dort sind sie so ein Problem geworden, dass das sogar Alan Greenspan bemerkt hat. Letzte Woche forderte er in einer Rede den US-Kongress auf, Sozial- und Gesundheitsleistungen zu kürzen, um das Haushaltsloch zu schließen. Der einzig mögliche andere Weg wären Steuererhöhungen. In beiden Fällen wird das Ergebnis ein niedrigerer Lebensstandard in Amerika sein. Man kann es auch anders sehen ... der große Kreditboom, der den Lebensstandard in Amerika erhöht hatte, weil man auf Kosten der Zukunft lebte, kommt jetzt zu seinem Ende.

Und auch die gewaltigen amerikanischen Handelsbilanz- und Leistungsbilanzdefizite müssen reduziert werden. Wie? Die Leute in den USA müssen aufhören, soviel Geld auszugeben. Andere Möglichkeit: Der Dollar muss kollabieren. Wahrscheinlich wird beides der Fall sein. Und in beiden Fällen wäre das Ergebnis ein niedrigerer Lebensstandard in den USA.

Sie werden es bemerkt haben, liebe(r) Leser(in): Trotz des Dollarverfalls der letzten beiden Jahre ist das US-Handelsbilanzdefizit größer als je zuvor. China hat seine Währung weiterhin fest an den Dollar gekoppelt. Und wenn der Dollar fällt, dann fällt damit auch die chinesische Währung. Die Amerikaner haben durch den Dollarverfall deshalb zumindest gegenüber China keinen Vorteil erhalten. Und da China für die weltweiten Exporte so wichtig geworden ist, führen niedrigere Preise für chinesische Güter dazu, dass auch überall sonst die Preise dazu tendieren, zu sinken.

Die jüngsten Zahlen zum US-Arbeitsmarkt waren nicht gerade ermutigend. Die Zahl der Erstanträge auf Arbeitslosenhilfe steigt. Und im Januar stieg die Zahl der Entlassungen. Die Ökonomen sind verwirrt. Die Wirtschaft befindet sich doch voll in einer Erholung ... wieso steigt da die Zahl der Beschäftigten nicht?

Niedrige Zinsen und Steuersenkungen sollten der Wirtschaft doch Feuer unter dem Hintern machen. Und das haben sie auch getan – nur nicht bei der amerikanischen, sondern bei der chinesischen Volkswirtschaft! Alles, was in Amerika Feuer fing, waren Schulden, der Immobilienmarkt und die Spekulation. Die Amerikaner versinken immer tiefer im Schuldenmoor – und sie werden dort durch niedrige Zinssätze und leichte Kredite hineingelockt. Die Spekulanten werden wild, wenn sie das Wort Nanotech hören ... und Gott sei Dank haben die Chinesen noch nicht herausgefunden, wie sie Häuser in die USA exportieren können.

Wenn Greenspan nach vorne sieht, dann müsste er eigentlich eine Welt sehen, die für mich nach Deflation – einer bestimmten Sorte Deflation – aussieht. Nicht nur, dass der 50 Jahre lange amerikanische Kreditboom in einem epochalen Platzen implodieren wird, sondern das wird auch zu einem Zeitpunkt passieren, zu dem sich die wirtschaftliche Kraft der Welt nach Asien verlagert. Die Importe aus Asien werden überall auf der Welt die Preise sinken lassen ... und die globalisierten Arbeitsmärkte drücken auf die Löhne der amerikanischen Arbeiter. Denn zum Beispiel in Nicaragua arbeiten die Leute für 5 Dollar den ganzen Tag in der heißen Sonne. Sozialleistungen? Krankenkasse? Urlaub? So etwas gibt es da kaum.

Der einzige Weg, um mit solchen Niedriglohnländern konkurrieren zu können, wäre es, massive Beträge in kapitalintensive Industriezweige zu stecken, bzw. in solche Industriezweige, die hoch qualifizierte Arbeiter brauchen. Für deren Ausbildung muss man dann aber auch entsprechend großzügig investieren. So ähnlich ist das in der Schweiz und in Singapur geschehen. Aber die Amerikaner geben ihr Kapital für Konsum aus. Der größte Arbeitgeber der Nation heißt nicht mehr General Motors, sondern Wal-Mart ... und General Motors verdient sein Geld jetzt nicht mehr mit dem Verkauf von Autos, sondern mit seiner Finanzierungsabteilung. Und die jungen Amerikaner konzentrieren sich auf Studiengänge wie Gender Studies, und sie überlassen die naturwissenschaftlichen Studiengänge den Ausländern. Die besten der jungen Amerikaner gehen an die Wall Street und hoffen, sich früh zur Ruhe zu setzen können, wenn sie windige Neuemissionen betreuen oder vielleicht einen Hedgefonds starten.

Das ist der Grund, warum die Reallöhne der amerikanischen Fabrikarbeiter in den letzten 30 Jahren mehr oder weniger stagnierten ... und warum jetzt die Löhne der amerikanischen Informatiker unter Druck geraten ... und warum es so schwer ist, neue Jobs zu schaffen – obwohl sich die Zinsen auf dem niedrigsten Stand seit 50 Jahren befinden.

Greenspan & Co. können durch die Stimulierung der Wirtschaft keine neuen Jobs schaffen. Das wirkt höchstens in Übersee. Sie können auch keinen Reichtum nach Amerika bringen, wenn sie den amerikanischen Konsumenten mehr Kredite geben; denn davon haben diese bereits mehr als genug. Mehr Kredite machen die Situation nur noch schlimmer ... denn sie gewöhnen der Nation die schlechte Gewohnheit des zu starken Konsumierens und der Spekulation an ... und sie machen die Schmerzen der Anpassung nur noch schwieriger. In der kommenden "Deflation der Kredite" werden die Amerikaner wahrscheinlich ihre Schulden bezahlen müssen ... während sie in neue Industrien investieren. Ihr Lebensstandard wird wahrscheinlich fallen ... genauso wie ihre Einkommen. Auch die Preise ihrer Häuser könnten fallen ... während sie für ihre Hypotheken mehr zahlen müssen. Und der Preis ihrer Importe (wie Öl) sollte steigen ... während der Dollar an Wert verliert.

Eine Deflation ... mit steigenden Preisen? Denken Sie darüber eine Minute nach. (Ich würde selbst drüber nachdenken ... aber eigentlich habe ich immer noch Urlaub).

Wann werden die Schulden zurückgezahlt werden müssen? Dann, wenn die beste aller Welten zur schlechtesten aller Welten geworden ist ... wenn die Wirtschaft, die "zu gut, um wahr zu sein" ist, "zu schlecht, um wahr zu sein" geworden ist. Und wenn die Dinge, die "nicht besser sein könnten", auf einmal "nicht schlechter sein könnten" ...

[einmalpleitereicht]

March 1 - Gold $399.10 up $3 - Silver $6.91 up 21 cents

SILVER ROCKETS Right On Schedule

Do not be desirous of having things done quickly. Do not look at small advantages. Desire to have things done quickly prevents their being done thoroughly. Looking at small advantages prevents great affairs from being accomplished. ... Confucius

GO GATA

Some kind of excitement this morning. Gold and silver were called slightly higher, when silver went berserk. Perhaps the big shorts read yesterday’s MIDAS? Silver flew to $6.99 with the May contract rising as high as $7.03. Gold took off in sympathy with the move in silver, going up $6.70 on the day (there is that familiar $6 rule again) before selling off due to pressure from a rising dollar. However, on the day, gold broke from its currency shackles. The dollar closed at 87.62, up .20, with the euro losing .50 to 124.36.

It’s about time gold ran up on its own. Commodity prices are going bananas. Copper closed at $1.3970 per pound, up $5.10, and will soon make an all-time high. Platinum finished the day at $906, up $15. Crude oil rose again to $36.86, up another 80 cents per barrel. Soybeans continued their winning streak, rising to $9.57 ½ cents per bushel, up another 20 cents. Silver makes 7-year highs. The CRB leaped to 278.61, up a whopping 3.88. For gold to be under $400, regardless of what the dollar does, is ludicrous. The only reason gold isn’t streaking for $500 is because of the crooks in The Gold Cartel. Could anything be more obvious?

The bad news is the criminals working the CRIMEX scene are going to have their work cut out for them. One doesn’t need to be an Einstein in the investment world to note commodity prices are on a tear. As they continue higher, more and more investors are going to want to own gold, especially when silver goes bonkers, for the silver move will shine a light on what the gold Draculas have been doing. At the some point the cabal is going to be overwhelmed with their gold ploy just as they are going to be in silver.

Speaking of silver, there were only 272 deliveries, a far cry from Friday’s 1933. This is good news as it adds support to the MIDAS theory that big players are going to the Comex for their physical silver requirements because they are having a hard time locating it in size elsewhere.

Duetsche Bank was one of the big stoppers, taking 92 contracts. Again, this could be the Europeans oft-talked about this past month in MIDAS commentary. The Bank of Nova Scotia was the other big stopper. The issuers were mixed.

The delivery date of record for silver at my commodity firm is still July. As mentioned yesterday, this is most unusual. We are down to 3390 contracts still open in the March contract. Where the fireworks could kick in is if the buyers of the last couple thousand want the silver and the shorts don’t want to give it up.

March silver
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SV/34

Now that is my kind of chart. Talk about a powerful looking formation. With a move out of this kind of base, like we saw today, the silver projections are way up there.

The gold open interest rose 467 contracts to 234,325, while the silver open interest dropped 1840 to 110,578. Some of the big shorts have started running for the hills.

JUST IN: Word to me is a group of Australians are running around the Mid East looking for an extraordinary amount of gold. The amount is so large I am afraid to mention the number. It makes the STALKER’s buying look piddly. If any Café members hear any more about this from a credible source, please let me know.

Gold remains incredibly undervalued thanks to The Gold Cartel. What a great buy!

[einmalpleitereicht]

The John Brimelow Report

Monday, March 01, 2004

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $6.64, PM $5.80 with world gold at $398.40 and $398.50. Ample for legal imports, but appreciably down on Friday’s, when of course world gold was $5 lower.

Gold strengthened as soon as Asia opened today. TOCOM participated, with volume jumping 110% to the equivalent of 34,470 Comex lots, and the active contract going out up 20 yen. World gold stood at $399.20 at the close, $3.10 above the NY close, having spent much of the Japanese day around that level. Some commentaries speak of buying originating in Japan, but open interest actually slipped by 660 Comex lots. On the other hand, based on the 1-day-lagged Members Open Interest data, there has been a c.10% build-up in the ‘General Public’ long in the past week. So there are some faint signs of interest. (NY on Friday traded 41,154 lots; open interest rose 467 lots.)

Shanghai Gold Exchange premiums collapsed to a more reasonable – but still high - $2.50 zone today, because world gold rose. Volume was normal. This is a dubious situation.

Those observers who follow the CFTC data closely felt no doubt vindicated by Friday’s close. Macquarie notes:

"Both the silver and gold posted strong closes despite the gold getting whacked on the death."

while UBS more circumspectly observes:

"Gold peaked just ahead of the close but then traded almost two dollars in the closing period although still posting a positive performance."

Sell-offs at the close suggest the defence of a short position. And indeed, the CFTC data not only show a severe curtailment of the spec long – HSBC says:

"The total speculative long position on the Comex gold contract slipped 1.5Moz on the week to 10.4Moz, the lowest level since last August…the real fund position is now probably below 10Moz…down from a recent high of over 16Moz seen in early January." –

But there was indeed evidence of shorting:

"interestingly, the move was driven more by new shorts than by liquidating longs. More than 1 million ounces of gross shorts were added while only 3 lacs of long liquidation was seen."

(UBS). In sum, the Bears have had to burn off a great deal of ammunition. This may not have been wise, given the drift of events in general. An unusually forceful Bridgewater today lends perspective:

"Everything is going up: "

Can anyone name anything that is not rising in value? There has probably never been an easier time to be an investor. Everything that we are looking at has gone up, and continues to go up. Bonds, stocks, commodities, real estate, all types of emerging markets instruments, corporate bonds, mortgages, and anything else we can think of is rising in value. What does that tell you? It tells you that the value of money is falling. And it is falling on purpose because the people who control its value are devaluing it in order to fight off deflation.

This investment orgy is being fueled by rapidly expanding global liquidity… This much stimulation comes around about once a generation. And when it does, everything rises in value in money terms. It was the production of liquidity in 1933 that ended the Great Depression and sent stocks, bonds and commodities immediately and simultaneously higher. We’re getting a similar treatment today.
(JB emphasis)

Some of gold’s friends will take the relaxed view of www.goldmoney.com founder James Turk:

"Based on historical relationships between gold and the CRB, it is clear…that gold should be closer to $500 ($16.10/gg) than $400 ($12.85/gg). But this observation is not reason for despair. To the contrary. It makes buying gold here at $400 per ounce an easy decision because we can clearly see… how undervalued gold presently is.."

http://goldmoney.com/en/commentary.php#current

Others, more impatient, might be more interested in how this lag has come about. But all can see the force in the argument that the anomaly, given world economic conditions, must eventually end.

JB

[einmalpleitereicht]

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

Everything is wonderful. Bonds refuse to go down despite the soaring commodity prices and the US stock market roars ahead regardless of any kind of disappointing economic news. The DOW jumped 94 to 10,678 and the DOG ran up 28 to 2057.

GATA’s Mike Bolser:

Hi Bill:
The added $11 Billion in temporary Repurchase agreements today March 1rst 2004. This action caused the repo pool`s 30-day moving average to keep moving slightly upwards (though very early in this phase change).

The DOW tracks about 10,650 at this hour 12AM.

200-day Moving Averages and Interventional Strategy

I have opined on the importance of 200-day moving averages in following the pace of government intervention. We saw the rise of interest rate derivatives weeks after gold`s 200-day ma was broken by preemptive selling. There is a logical basis for this view highlighting the 200-day ma as a key indicator: derivatives and their characteristics.

Derivatives are sluggish

In order to influence the larger DOW or precious metals markets as GATA`s Army has proven, the gold cartel must utilize derivatives traded on the futures markets. Huge futures and options positions must be taken ($25 Trillion in the example of interest rate derivatives at JP Morgan Chase and over 400 million ounces of COMEX silver). This is also true in the international commodities trade for petroleum where the Bank for International Settlements reports $458 Billion in the derivatives category containing oil (where the recent 200-day ma Dollar Index Value of Oil [DIVO] phase change is now moving upwards signaling higher oil).

These necessarily massive positions cannot be adjusted up or down quickly. They require substantial contract creation, distribution and handling time to implement meaningful derivatives phase changes designed to thwart naturally rising prices and this is why the 1999 Washington Agreement caused such a calamity for those mired in gold derivatives (Ashanti, Cambior) not to mention the money center banks caught off side. The rates of change in commodity prices outran the money center bank`s ability to catch up with their required market manipulating, derivatives changes. Speed in prices kills derivatives.

So we can view the real interventional battleground in any given "Homeland Security" commodity such as silver gold and oil by watching the 200-day moving average of its currency-adjusted commodity price.

Of course, those commodities that lack adequate physical supply will be directly (and unhappily, from the Fed`s viewpoint) exposed to the inexorable free market forces of supply and demand as silver and oil are today.
Mike


Chuck checks in:

Bill:
We are continuing to see gold appreciate against the backdrop of a dollar rally. When have we last seen this? And every time the dollar rests, the metals move up. Given all of the continuing flow of bad news for the economy, we could see some real fireworks. This is the beginning of a month, so I expect a lot of money to flow into the stock market for the first few days of March. Then we shall see. Chuck

On a possible European rate cut:

FRANKFURT, March 1 (Reuters) - Nothing points towards the European Central Bank cutting interest rates any time soon, a euro zone monetary source said on Monday, playing down talk that low inflation will prompt an ECB easing this week.
Real interest rates in the euro zone -- discounting inflation -- are already around zero, which makes it hard to bring rates down even further, the source told Reuters before the ECB`s Thursday policy meeting.
"When (real interest rates) are already at zero, it`s a bit difficult to cut a lot more. I don`t think there are elements currently pointing in that direction," the source said when asked whether the ECB was mulling a rate cut….

-END-


From The King Report:

PPI Held Hostage, Day 11.

Bond bears can be divided into two camps. Those that think the economy is great and those that believe the mushrooming US twin deficits will soon collapse the dollar, inducing foreign sales of dollar-denominated assets (bonds). On Friday, the bond market surged because key components of Friday’s economic data showed economic woe. This upset those that believe the economy is or will be jiggy in the first half of ’04 on the delusion that Q3 and Q4 momentum will keep the economy robust for awhile.

We guess that bond bears that are econobulls are slowly starting to concede defeat. An ugly employment report on Friday will facilitate further perception change. The bond decline on deteriorating US finances will come after the econobull shorts are squeezed.

Increasing inventories added .92 to GDP. Though most of the financial media heralded this development, at this point of the cycle it is a negative and Mr. Bond acted in accordance. Consumer spending fell to 2.7%. Durable spending fell 0.1%, the first decline since Q2 of ’01, which was a recession. As usual delving into the numbers shows a worse scenario. In current dollars durable good spending fell $10B. But Commerce adjusts that figure by chain dollar to show only a mere $400m decline. They adjust software investment from +$3.4B to +$6.9B chain-weighted. However, Commerce adjusts the necessities of life lower. Medical care spending is adjusted from +$27.4B to $14.6B chain-weighted. Spending on food is adjusted from +$20.6B to $9.3B chain-weighted. We could go on, but the MO is quite clear. The government adjusts production higher and adjusts spending on the necessities of life lower. They also hedonically adjust software, computers and durables to produce an even lower costs and higher GDP. Ergo GDP is overstated and CPI is grossly understated. And Commerce no longer shows the adjustment to computers because a small part of The Street caught on to that scheme.

Attention all econobulls! Let’s assume that Moses delivered Friday’s GDP report to Broad & Wall on divinely inscribed tablets. There’s irrefutable proof that the US economy is in trouble. Q4 disposable income increased only 0.6%, 0.0% chain-weighted!!! And that’s with purported 4.1% GDP?!?! Two years into recovery and after massive monetary and fiscal stimulus, and there is no or a little income growth. Take this little fact to your favorite intractabull and ask for an explanation. Also, it refutes all that garbage about a self-employment/small business boom.

The Q4 income growth includes an unrealistic 76% increase in rental income. However, Q4 of ’02 had a 28.2% drop in rental income, so the rental income increase for Q4 of ’03 is probably due to seasonal adjustments. This further validates data that show housing is ebbing. Fewer people are leaving apartments to buy homes; ergo the seasonal adjustment show fictitious rental increases.

-END-

But there is no inflation:

CHICAGO (Reuters) - Maytag Corp. on Monday stuck by its outlook for first-quarter and full-year earnings, saying it is cutting costs and taking other measures to offset increased steel prices. The company forecast profit of $1.90 to $2.00 a share in the full year, including 40 cents a share in restructuring costs. For the first quarter, the company forecast profit of 42 to 47 cents a share, including 8 cents in restructuring costs

Houston’s Dan Norcini:

Hey buddy:
Looks like silver has legs here. Pretty damn impressive.

Of course it doesn`t hurt that platinum knocked out $900/ounce! I completely missed that one in platinum.

Poor old gold can`t seem to buy a lousy friend however. It is still following the blasted Euro around. It is pathetic what they have done to that metal.

The way the CRB is looking this morning, we are going to start having to use logarithmic charts to graph the thing!

That`s what makes the gold action so sorry. Copper soaring; platinum soaring; palladium soaring; silver soaring; gold? Ho hum - can`t even keep its head above $400. In all seriousness, if I were a price rigger trying to keep the price of gold from moving up and attracting the attention of the public, I think I might as well throw in the towel since it is a colossal waste of money at this point and simply too damn late with the CRB defying gravity. At this point, that index alone is sufficient notice that something is seriously amiss in Wonderland.

Got one of those circulating emails that pop into your box from time to time. This one was written by some ninny trying to organize a buyer`s strike for gasoline since those nasty old oil companies are up to their nefarious deeds and gouging us poor consumers again. They still don`t get it. It`s the supply/demand factors and the sinking dollar which has created the boom in crude prices just like the rest of the commodity world. One of these days John Q. Public is going to awake from his sleep of death and realize that the snake oil salesman has run off with all his savings. Tragic indeed.

Best,
Dan

Put this little piece in the Wall Street Journal along with Mike Norman as invaluable contrary indicators:

Hai...
On page C16 in the WSJ a very negative article about silver. Predicts the rally is over and silver will drop. This smells like our party is just about to begin. Nice reaction on this article btw, up 30 cts.
Ron

The HUI managed to stumble up 2.48 to 227.28, while the XAU gained 1.15 to 100.95.

The gold shares sold off late as they do every afternoon. With commodity prices doing what they are, the gold shares have got to be incredible buys these days. What a wonderful time to step up to the plate for those who have funds looking for a home. The risk/reward ratio here is TOPS!

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

MIDAS

[ulfur]

Is there a statistical relationship between gold and the euro?
Economist
Frédéric Lasserre
Société Générale

For over a year now, the EUR/USD has been the sole variable driving gold prices.
The correlation since 1st January 2003 stands at 0.84, and it is interesting to see
whether there is a solid statistical relationship between the two series. The first
approach logically consists in determining the regression line of the scatter chart
formed using the values of the EUR/USD and gold since this date (left-hand chart).
The scatter chart is not entirely homogenous - it is immediately evident that when
the euro rose above 1.20, gold shot up from USD 380/oz to USD 400/oz without
really recording any intermediate prices.

As such, even though the regression line shows a satisfactory R² of nearly 0.7, the
equation can only give a very vague indication of the equivalence between the
EUR/USD and gold prices. For example, with the EUR/USD at 1.24 like recently, the
equation puts gold at USD 400.5/oz, while the metal is currently trading at just
USD 394/oz. Similarly, when the euro tested a high of 1.2927 on 19th February,
gold did not manage to break USD 411.25/oz, while the equation puts the
corresponding price at USD 418.25/oz, i.e. a premium of USD 7/oz.

We therefore considered fluctuations in the two series rather than absolute levels,
and recalculated the series in relation to the most recent combined data (1.24;
394). The right-hand chart shows the equivalence obtained. The regression line
indicates that if the euro lost nearly 10 points to 1.15, gold would fall to
USD 365.5/oz. Symmetrically, if the euro gained 10 points to test 1.35 (the
consensus high for this year), gold would rise to USD 433/oz.

This approach, like the previous one, is clearly too linear and overly simplistic to
be used as a trading rule. It ignores the acceleration effect, technical boundaries
(support and resistance levels) and more broadly the fact that fund buy/sell
decisions are not made continuously, but irregularly. However, it does show that if
gold is to rise above USD 500/oz as some have suggested, either the euro would
have to rise to 1.536, or the relationship between fluctuations in the euro and gold
would have to become exponential instead of linear.

Von Bulliondesk.com

[Nevadabob]

The 21st Century Gold Rush
How High Can Gold and Silver Stocks Go?
Higher Than You Might Think!!

The lineups to buy gold resembled movie theatre queues waiting
to see Apocalypse Now.
Gold prices, a barometer of political and economic fears as well as
simple greed, began the 1980s by reaching a record $850 an ounce
in the US / Canada -- right through the top of old scales of value.
The poor man’s precious metal, silver, reached $56 and continued
to rise faster than gold.

Waiting for hours with money in pocket or purse from savings bonds
and savings accounts, they stood in their jeans, ski jackets, bulky
sweaters, construction boots and business suits.
Some carried knapsacks.
They ranged in age from 20’s to middle age.
All believed that, sooner or later, purchasing gold and silver
would pay off.

All but one were buyers.
The solitary seller was cashing in a gift of silver.

“I don’t understand the stock market. Gold is on the front page
and is easy to follow,” said a young woman.

The analysts and economists cite a litany of woes to explain the
new gold rush.
But to gold and silver buyers, last week and this, the most
important factor is that prices are moving and they were
afraid of being left behind, empty handed.

Gold sold in Canada for $268 when 1979 began.
Amazed in the sudden surge above $700, gold devotees begin
to think $1,000 possible soon.
The rocketing prices startle the experts and frighten even the
analysts who forecast a precious metals boom.
The action is so wild that the market experts have stopped
forecasting prices.

The gold explosion is the result of many causes and may have
many effects. Inside, The Financial Post reports on the outlook
for gold and silver.

Industrial users worried about prices, p.4.

Why silver soared faster than gold, p.4.

Canadian traders say silver’s popular, p.4.

Secrecy and ritual in London fixing, p.5.

Comment on the political options, p.6.

Shares in gold stocks look even better, p.17.

Ottawa won’t announce timing of gold sale, p.18.
The Financial Post – January 1980

This front page story was from the top of the gold and
silver market in January 1980 when gold hit $800 and silver
was $50+.
As you might guess, we are years away from any newspaper
articles of this magnitude. But I do predict that by the end of
this decade, there will be news stories published around the
world similar to this 1980 front page story.

If you want to know my price prediction for gold based on solid
historical research, you can read my last essay
“The 5th Wave Advance in Gold” to understand my argument
for the coming explosion in gold. (I’m also very bullish on silver).
In this essay I will focus on gold and silver stocks to see where
they might be going in the next 3-5 years. In the last few months
I have started out on a unique quest…to go back in time to the
1970s and to see what happened to gold and silver stocks when
gold hit $500 then $600 then $700 all they way to the $850+ price
and $50 silver.

I started my research by going to my local library to look at old
newspapers from the 1970s and wow did I find some amazing things!!
My library had The Financial Post newspapers on microfilm all the
way back to 1972 which was the very beginning of the last gold
and silver bull market. I quickly went to work spending hours
poring over the old papers looking for articles and stories on
gold and silver to see if there were any similarities between now
and the 1970s.
There were a few articles about gold from 1972 to 1975, but the
really big stories didn’t really get published until around 1978-79
and especially in January of 1980 with the final blow off top in
both gold and silver.

What I really wanted to uncover from the old financial papers
were old stock tables so I could see how high most gold and
silver stocks got to in January of 1980 and from what level a
few years earlier. What I found was absolutely shocking.
In 1975 most or all of the gold and silver stocks were trading
under $2.
Most were penny stocks under $.50. Even with gold up 400%
from the 1972 low of $60 to the 1975 top of $200, most gold and
silver shares did little to make anyone notice--especially the
mass public who had no idea what was going on.
It was not until gold bottomed out in late 1976 at $100 and into
1977 that gold and silver stocks started their historic bull market.
It would end where some of the prices for gold and silver stocks
were unthinkable only a few years earlier. I printed out stock
tables from 1975 up until the January `80 top and was totally
stunned at what I found. Let me give all you fellow gold and
silver investors and people reading this essay who are thinking
about buying some gold and silver shares a few of the many
examples of the kind of gains that were made in the last gold
and silver bull market a generation ago (before cell phones,
the internet, and p4 computers) so you can have an example
of the kind of gains we may see in the new gold and silver bull
in the 21st century.

Lion Mines – 1975 price $.07 / 1980 price $380
YES, that’s right. It’s not a misprint.
You could have bought 1000 shares of Lion Mines in 1975
for around $50 dollars at 7 cents per share and held on for
5 years riding the wild gold and silver bull until 1980 where
you then sold those same shares for $380 each for a total
profit of around $380,000. Not bad hey!!!!!
This is only one of many more examples:

Bankeno – 1975 price $1.25 / 1980 price $430

Wharf Resources – 1975 price $.40 / 1980 price $560

Steep Rock – 1975 price $.93 / 1980 price $440

Mineral Resources – 1975 price $.60 / 1980 price $415


These are only a handful of gold and silver stocks that participated
in what I consider one of the biggest financial opportunities in the
history of human civilization. I don’t know of any other time
except maybe the .com bubble where in only a 5-year time span
you could have tuned so little into so much wealth. Imagine
buying in 1975 a handful of gold and silver stocks for under a dollar
and selling them in 5 years for $100, $200, or even $500 per share
as gold fever ripped through Wall Street. This is a great example
of the kind of investing philosophy that Dr. Marc Faber talks
about where to be a great investor you only need to make a few
good investment decisions in your whole life to be successful.
This one decision in 1975 to buy just a handful of gold and silver
stocks and sell them near the all time highs of hundreds of dollars
per share could have set you up financially for the rest of you life!!!!.

I truly believe we are at that same juncture as in 1975, but only this
time the fundamentals are even better for gold and silver.
The similarities between the 1970s and today are uncanny.

Here are a few quotes from one of my most cherished books.

“It will be hard for people to believe this but, via inflation, their
own government did them in. Practically on a daily basis in 1974
people saw rising prices in grocery stores, as they received fewer
goods for their dollars. A full-fledged panic away from paper
money could start”.

Or how about this nice quote?
“When people see gold and silver standing alone amidst the
economic ruins, they will realize that we gloom and doomers
were actually right. Hopefully, eternal optimists will pay more
heed to warnings the next time around”.

I like this one the best:
“Too much paper has been printed in the past, and will have
to be wiped out no matter what.”

This is a good one too.
“People say gold is useless. Not true. It is demonstrating its
function right now. Gold is the ballast for the printing press
used in making paper money, and gold relentlessly punishes
offenders”

The list of timeless quotes goes on and on in this awesome
book, but I will leave you with one last quote from this magical
book that is very import and relevant to today’s problems in
the US dollar and the so-called economic rebound.
“It’s dawning on many people that to defend the dollar, US
interest rates will have to go up; else, money will be transferred
from the U.S to England to take advantage of higher interest rates,
and a dollar crisis would ensue. However, if interest rates go up,
this might choke off the boom in our economy. What a dilemma!”

WOW that about sums it up. That quote could have been seen
in many newspapers just this week!!!

Like I said before, the similarities between now and then are
simply stunning. All of these quotes tell the real story of why
gold (and silver) are so important throughout history and that
history does really repeat itself. These quotes are the real
fundamental cornerstone of why gold is in a bull market today
and why the current rally in the general equity markets is only
a bear market rally or a secondary reaction based on 45-year low
interest rates, several tax cuts and by the fed flooding the world
with fiat (unbacked) dollars!! Once the Fed raises interest rates
to save the dollar (Coming to a theater near you!), the stock
markets, bond markets, housing markets and credit markets
will implode.

For anyone reading this essay that would like to know the real
story of why the US dollar is doomed unless the Fed starts to
raise rates fast, I would highly recommend another one of my
most favorite books “The Dollar Crisis” by Richard Duncan.
In this book, Mr. Duncan takes you step by step through the
causes and the consequences of the US dollar crisis. If you
want to know why gold and silver will explode in value, you
must have the information in this book. Here is one small
quote that gives you an example of why gold and silver are
in a bull market and why the dollar is set to fall to much lower
levels in the future:

“Balance of payments deficits of an unprecedented magnitude
have resulted in credit induced economic over heating on a
global scale. The foundations for sustainable economic
growth will not be restored until this flaw is corrected and
the U.S. trade deficit ceases to flood the world with U.S. dollar
liquidity.
That will require that the dollar standard be replaced by a new
international monetary system that does not generate, or even
tolerate, rampant credit creation.”

This current environment for the dollar is horrific to say the least.
Look at these two charts below. One is of the US dollar index and
the other chart is of that the infamous stock, Enron. Don’t these
two charts look very similar!!!

If you believe in the Elliott wave theory like I do--that all financial
charts are based on greed and fear and that those two human
emotions print beautiful fractal (patterns within patterns)
pictures--then these two charts should shock everybody!
(The numbers in the two charts are not Elliott wave counts,
but they are there to help the reader clearly see a similar
pattern in both charts) If the dollar even slightly follows the same
pattern that Enron did--and at this point it really does look that
way--then the US economy, stock market, and social structure
have some very hard times ahead.

The only way to stop the waterfall decline in the U.S. dollar is
for the Fed to raise interest rates to attract more buyers who at
this point are getting better returns in other safer currencies
around the world. But if they do that and raise rates, they will
cause a simultaneous crash in multiple markets (stock, bond,
housing and credit). Only gold and silver and the companies
that take it out of the earth will prosper in that environment.
Greenspan has painted himself into a corner that many believe
he will not be able to get out of.

Investing in gold and silver shares now and holding them for
the next 3-5 years could be the only financial decision you
have to make in your entire life. No need to trade in and out
and get killed on commissions and slippage. Just buy a basket
of gold and silver stocks now when many are still under $5
per share and wait until you see headlines in the newspapers
similar to the one that I opened my essay up with. Remember,
when that front page story was run in January 1980, most gold
and silver stocks were trading over $50 per share and lots were
trading over $100 -$200. Some were trading even as high as $500
per share when only a few years earlier you could have bought
the same stocks quietly for under 1 dollar. I can tell all of you
out there that there is not one gold or silver stock that I know
of that is anywhere close to trading at or over $100 per share.
Just look at the long term picture of the XAU gold/silver stock
index. It is not even close to an all time high yet!!! It just
recently broke out of its massive text book perfect head and
shoulders reversal pattern.

I know it’s hard for most people to think that gold and silver
will surpass their old January 1980 highs of $850+ for gold
and $50+ for silver, but that is what a 20+ year generational
bear market will do to a whole nation of investors who have
grown up with falling real assets (gold and silver) and rising
paper assets (stocks and bonds). When the tide of human
emotion swings and paper assets really start to fall hard
(the day the fed bites the bullet and raises interest rates to
save the dollar), the lust and fever for real assets will be
unbelievable. The .com bubble where many stocks went
from pennies to hundreds of dollars per share will look small
compared to some of the upcoming gains in the first ever gold
and silver bull market of the 21st century. Unlike the .com bubble
that was based on easy financing, false profits and aggressive
accounting, the coming explosion in gold and silver stocks will
be all about supply and demand and a mad fear to protect one’s
savings from paper destruction. When the entire world wants a
piece of the gold and silver stock bull market, there will only be
a limited supply of shares so they will have to be bid up to
unthinkable levels. The gold and silver stock sector is very
small compared to the bond market and the overall stock
market and it won’t take much to push these stocks into
the stratosphere.

I am sure that most of you reading this essay have co-workers
that couldn’t even name one silver stock, but in 3-5 years they
will be telling you what silver stocks to buy and that will be a
sign that the top is near.

The situation for gold and silver are almost perfect. Believe me,
if gold and silver don’t surpass their old 1980 highs in the next
3-5 years, they never will. I strongly believe that after reading
dozens of books and most of the writings on gold and silver
and pouring over newspapers from the 1970s to early 1980s,
that the opportunity in gold and silver and the companies that
mine them in the next 3-5 years is a once in a lifetime opportunity.
Even a modest investment today in a few silver and gold stocks
could change your financial destiny in just a few years.

EURASIA GOLD MINES Strategic Au/Gold Euro Production...

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/charts/int-adv.chart?siteid=mktw&…

EGX has started a repeat of the EGX 1996 performance

EGX bigchart TA Alert Signal Strong Bull Start

http://chart.bigcharts.com/bc3/intchart/frames/chart.asp?sym…

A record production of 8,596 ounces of GOLD
was precipitated during the 3rd quarter of 2003,
compared to 7,328 ounces in the 2nd quarter.

EGX is doing extremely well and making a good profit
as well, compared to a lot of other Gold expl.
companies - who trading 100 times more in market
cap values than EGX?

EGX has plenty of more hard assets Gold Mines
today and should be trading in a much higher
market cap values than in 1996...

a hidden EGX TI - Top trendline
shows the next target closer to $2.00,

imo, Best regards, MfG

[ulfur]

The 21st Century Gold Rush
In dem ursprünglichen Artikel ist aber von Eurasia Gold keine Rede.

[ulfur]

Die USA scheinen mit der derzeitigen Stärke des Dollars nicht so zufrieden zu sein. Vieleicht marschieren der Dollar und damit auch Gold bald wieder in die andere Richtung als heute.

Fed/Greenspan: Yen-Kurs erscheint "erhöht" gegenüber Dollar
Dienstag 2. März 2004, 19:01 Uhr



Washington (vwd) - Fed-Chairman Alan Greenspan hat sich am Dienstag ungewöhnlich kritisch zur japanischen Devisenmarktpolitik geäußert. Er wies darauf hin, dass die Interventionen durch die Bank of Japan zu "riesigen" Devisenbeständen geführt haben, was sich schon bald als ein Problem für die zweitgrößte Volkswirtschaft der Welt erweisen könnte. Der Yen-Kurs erscheine "erhöht" gegenüber dem Dollar und möglicherweise auch in Relation zu anderen, international gehandelten Währungen, sagte Greenspan laut Redetext bei einer Ansprache vor Ökonomen.

Die japanischen Eingriffe an den Devisenmärkten seien "unhaltbar". Der Notenbanker ergänzte jedoch: "Es muss angenommen werden, dass die Rate, mit der Japan Dollarbestände aufbaut, sich mit der Zeit vermindert und schließlich ganz zum Stillstand kommt." Zwar stimme die Interventionspolitik derzeit überein mit der gegen die Deflation gerichteten Geldpolitik, doch wenn die Phase der sinkenden Preise vorbei sei, dann könnte diese Praxis zu einem Problem werden. Zudem verzögerten die Eingriffe nötige Anpassungen der Wechselkurse.

vwd/DJ/2.3.2004/apo

[ulfur]

Demnächst Plastikmünzen in den USA?

von unserem Korrespondenten Eric Fry in Manhattan

"Nimm, Dick. Nimm, nimm." Der ehemalige Vorsitzende der New Yorker Börse, Dick Grasso, weigert sich, einen einzigen Cent seiner Rücktrittsprämie von 140 Millionen Dollar zurückzuzahlen. Die hatte er letzten September erhalten, als Versüßung seines Rücktritts.

Der Anwalt von Grasso, ein gewisser Brendan Sullivan Jr., sagt, dass sein Klient nichts Falsches getan hat, als er diese Prämie annahm. Und er habe "keine Absicht, einen Teil zurückzugeben." Das stimmt wohl; aber hat Grasso jemals etwas so Richtiges getan, dass er diese 140 Millionen Dollar verdient hätte? Wenn man überhaupt durch Arbeit 140 Millionen Dollar "verdienen" kann ...

Währenddessen versuchten die Investoren an derselben Börse, die Grasso einst ausplünderte ... äh ... überwachte ... mühsam, selbst einzelne Dollar zu gewinnen. Der Nasdaq-Composite gab im letzten Monat 1,7 % ab.

Aber während die Aktienkurse derzeit nicht so recht wissen, was sie tun sollen, segelt die Wirtschaft auf stetigem Kurs. Letzten Freitag vermeldete das US-Wirtschaftsministerium, dass das Wirtschaftswachstum im vierten Quartal bei 4,1 % lag. Das ist zwar ein deutlicher Rückschritt gegenüber den 8,2 % Plus im dritten Quartal, aber das ist immer noch ganz ordentlich.

Und der nationale Einkaufsmanagerindex zeigte an, dass sich in New York das Geschäftsumfeld im Februar den sechsten Monat in Folge verbessert hat. Und in Chicago sogar den zehnten Monat in Folge. "Insgesamt sind die Einkaufsmanager optimistisch", so die Nationale Vereinigung der Einkaufsmanager. "Fast 75 % der Befragten sagten, dass sie planen, ihre Technologie-Ausgaben im Jahr 2004 zu erhöhen."

Die positiven wirtschaftlichen News beflügelten den Dollar zu Wochenbeginn gegenüber dem Euro, und der Goldpreis blieb unter der Marke von 400 Dollar, obwohl er heute genau um diese Marke pendelte. Allerdings haben die Goldminenaktien etwas überraschend letzte Woche 2 % zugelegt. Wissen die Käufer dieser Aktien mehr als andere? Oder wie sind die drauf?

Aber andere Rohstoffe steigen weiter. Zink stieg letzte Woche auf ein 3-Jahres-Hoch, während Kupfer 3 % auf ein 8-Jahres-Hoch zulegte.

Und ich wurde letzten Freitag darüber informiert, dass "die Stahlpreise steigen". Die Quelle dieser Beobachtung ist ein alter Freund von mir, der mit dem Verkauf von Stahlprodukten an die amerikanische Westküste ganz gut lebt. "Wir sehen derzeit große Preiszuwächse", sagt er. "Einige Produkte werden in den nächsten zwei Monaten um 40 % teurer werden ... das nervt."

Zum Glück für uns alle hat uns der Fed-Vorsitzende Greenspan versichert, dass eine Inflation derzeit nicht existiert. Sonst hätten wir uns auch Sorgen über die steigenden Stahl-, Öl- und Gaspreise machen müssen. Denn der Ölpreis ist das erste Mal seit fast einem Jahr über die Marke von 36 Dollar gestiegen, ein Wochenplus von fast 2 Dollar. Und auch der Gaspreis ist auf ein 5-Monats-Hoch gestiegen.

Selbst wenn Greenspan durch seine Brillengläser keine Inflation sehen kann, dann wird es sein Arbeitgeber – der amerikanische Staat – wahrscheinlich bald merken.

Denn Steve Sjuggerud schreibt: "2004 wird die Münzprägung für die USA wahrscheinlich ein Verlustgeschäft werden. Denn der Edelmetallwert ( ...) einiger Münzen könnte über ihre Kaufkraft steigen ... also könnte es Zeit sein, diese Münzen im Garten zu vergraben."

"2003 kostete es 0,98 Cents, um einen Cent herzustellen. Damit konnte die Regierung leichte Gewinne machen ... 2002 kostete es 0,88 Cents, einen Cent herzustellen. 2001 nur 0,80 Cents. Aber 2004 ist es fast sicher, dass die Kosten bei über einem Cent liegen werden."

"Bei der US-Münzprägung endete das Geschäftsjahr am 30.09.2003. Seitdem ist der Kupferpreis um 62 % gestiegen. Und Kupfer ist – vielleicht sind Sie überrascht, das zu hören – der Hauptbestandteil der 5-Cent-Münze. 2003 kostete es die Regierung 3,78 Cents, eine 5-Cent-Münze herzustellen. Leichte Gewinne, oder? Aber die Regierung rechnete nicht mit dem Dollareinbruch. Wenn der Kupferpreis auf dem jetzigen Niveau bleibt, dann könnten die Kosten für die Herstellung der 5-Cent-Münzen im Geschäftsjahr 2004 um 62 % steigen."

"Ähnlich ist es bei der 1-Cent-Münze. Der Hauptbestandteil dieser Münze ist nicht Kupfer, sondern Zink. Ein Cent besteht zu 97,5 % aus Zink. Und der Zinkpreis ist seit dem 30.09.2003 um fast 40 % gestiegen. Und wenn die Produktionskosten für einen Cent um 40 % steigen, dann kostet es 1,38 Cents, einen Cent herzustellen."

"Wie kann die Regierung aus diesem Problemwust wieder herauskommen?" fragt Sjuggerud rhetorisch. "Oh, das ist einfach ... sie kann einfach den Metallgehalt der Münzen ändern. Ich bin mir sicher, dass das nur eine Frage der Zeit ist. Vielleicht werden wir im nächsten Jahr mit Plastikmünzen statt mit Metallmünzen bezahlen. Und denken Sie, vielleicht wird bald bei Plastikmünzen irgendwann der Materialwert höher sein als die Kaufkraft."

Ich möchte Sie allerdings darauf hinweisen, dass Sie Roulette-Chips vorher in eine Plastiktüte einwickeln sollten, bevor sie sie im Garten vergraben.

[einmalpleitereicht]

March 2 - Gold $393.10 down $6 - Silver $6.68 down 23 cents

Gold And Silver Battered As Dollar Roars

Coming together is a beginning; Keeping together is progress; Working together is success..Henry Ford

GO GATA!!!!!

Today was a very weird day. To begin with, the horrendous news out of Iraq this morning is not only horrific, it is ominous for US forces over there and portends increasing violence in the months ahead:

Blasts Kill 143 at Iraq Shiite Shrines
(AP) - Simultaneous explosions ripped through crowds of worshippers Tuesday at Shiite Muslim shrines in Baghdad and Karbala, killing at least 143 people on the holiest day of the Shiite calendar, a U.S. general said. It was the bloodiest day since the end of major fighting. A "prime suspect" in the attacks was al Qaida-linked Jordanian militant Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, Brig. Gen. Mark Kimmitt said. –END-

This heinous act of violence on the Shiite’s holiest day of the year can only act as a catalyst for the religious extremists in that sect to foment more trouble and lead that country in the direction of a civil war.

One would think this sort of news would be dollar bearish. Not so. The dollar went nuts to the upside for no apparent reason. The dollar shot up to 88.93, up 1.31, while the euro plunged more against the dollar than at any other time in its existence, falling 2.26 to 122.15.

Early in the day, gold and silver were holding quite firm against the dollar’s strength, but when this strength dramatically accelerated, gold/silver couldn’t hold up any longer. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley made sure of that as they came out with their gold guns blazing and pressured gold long enough until their selling attracted fund selling.

Gold fell all the way down to $390.30 before the Morgan Stanley’s and the locals covered their positions. There are some in the precious metals trading world waiting for huge stops to be cleaned out below $390. They are willing buyers if it happens. Today’s gold close was the first one below $395 and a new low one for the move.

What the US financial markets seem to be responding to is becoming a bit odd. When Bush took office if he or his Treasury Secretary muttered anything which wasn’t resounding support for the US strong dollar policy, they were vilified by Wall Street. Here it is three years later and when the dollar soars to the upside, the US stock AND bond market go down, with the US stock market giving us the most volatility we have seen in some time. Go figure.

The name of the game today seemed to be to have the dollar take off to calm down the roaring commodities markets, especially since the Bush Administration refuses to release a Producer Price Index report.

The gold open interest fell 942 contracts to 233,333, while the silver open interest leaped 4305 contracts on yesterday’s big surge.

There were only 18 silver deliveries this morning, down from 1930+ on Friday. Most of those taking delivery thus far have held on to them. There are still 3123 March contracts open. If this open interest doesn’t drop much and the shorts don’t come up with the silver, we will see some fireworks for sure. Too early to get the real lay of the land on this one. However, if the March contract didn’t liquidate substantially on silver’s retreat today, it could be very telling of some serious excitement to come.

Silver filled the breakaway gap it left yesterday and still looks powerful, as long as it holds $6.50 on a closing basis.

As we have seen so often, The Gold Cartel capped gold on yesterday’s big rally and then went in for the kill today when the dollar continued its move higher. Even so, it is hard not to be a raving gold bull with commodity prices flying like they have been and with so much growing trouble in the Mid East.



The John Brimelow Report

JB: Rupee is linked to the $US

Tuesday, March 2


Financial markets in India were closed today. The country has the pleasant habit of respecting key holidays of religious minorities, in this case Muslim. Shanghai showed $2+ premiums on the various grades quoted, with world gold at $398.80, which as a matter of historical record is high.

For once, TOCOM seems to have shown a little gold enthusiasm. Volume did drop 28% to the equivalent of only 24,927 Comex lots, but open interest moved up 1,878 Comex contracts. World gold was pushed through $400 early in the Japanese day, and only fell back when Europe was becoming active. Perhaps the prospect of a weaker yen is reviving local interest – as judged by the Member’s Open Interest report, lagged by one day, the public is still accumulating. (NY yesterday traded an estimated 35,000 contracts.)

Gold had the temerity to try joining in with the general commodity exuberance yesterday, only to get firmly chastised:

"Gold held above 398.00 early in the session…not many offers could be found. Gold ran all the way to the day’s high of 402.70/403.10 …The metal then slipped back to 402.00…overseas selling came into the market. The tone quickly turned from bullish to bearish forcing gold all the way back near 399.00."

says ScotiaMocatta. UBS offers:

gold opened around $399 and saw first sellers after the opening bell…Left lonely by all white metals, Gold is set to drift between $395 and $404 and Refco Research comments:

"fund and dealer selling eventually gained the upper hand"

A hint of why gold should diverge so much from other commodities can be found in the SG Commodities Weekly Comment on the 5 year (!) gold lease rate market:

"As we expected, the 15bp rise in the 5-year lease rate immediately attracted interest from several central banks. The rate soon lost the 15bp this week, falling back to its initial level of 1.30."

Can 1.45% be worth the paper work, let alone the credit risk of 5 year lending? Or could these transactions be policy driven?

Obviously, viewing gold’s action today, many NY operators do not realize that the key gold buyers, having tied their currencies to the $US, are not effected by any dollar recovery.

JB

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The DOW fell 83 to 10,591 and the DOG slipped 18 to 2040.

Ford`s February U.S. Auto Sales Declined 2.4 Percent
March 2 (Bloomberg) -- Ford Motor Co., the second-largest North American automaker, said U.S. sales of cars and trucks fell 2.4 percent in February, the third consecutive monthly decline, prompting cuts in production.
The company sold 261,694 vehicles last month, with car sales falling 14 percent and truck sales rising 4.3 percent led by its best-selling F-Series pickup truck, the Dearborn, Michigan-based company said in a statement.
Ford will build about 15,000 fewer vehicles in the first quarter than planned because of slower-than-expected sales and will trim second-quarter production by 5 percent from the second quarter of 2003 because the company changing production lines to make new models, spokesman George Pipas said in an interview. –END-

GATA’s Mike Bolser:

Hi Bill:
The Federal reserve today added $6 Billion in temporary repurchase agreements against a larger expiration of $11 Billion. This deficit reduced the repo pool to $28.5 Billion and continued the restraining pressure on the primary dealer`s purchase of DOW index futures. This in turn has kept the DOW level around the predicted 10,600 plateau. The DOW`s 30-day moving average continues to bend over from its previous upward streak and track flat.

I expect the DOW to be steered flat by the Fed`s repo machine throughout the month of March.

Market commentary notes that all indexes, bonds, stocks, commodities, real estate are going up. Only a fool believes that paper-based investments are of a durable nature in our current inflationary universe.

We should not be surprised that there has been a cloud of confusion over the continuing question inflation or deflation, the Fed, through its army of economists has purposely created the confusion in order to hide what they know all-to-well...that they are debasing the currency at an unprecedented rate. Including the planned Japanese printing of $580 Billion in yen to buy US dollars our combined deficits are well over $1.5 Trillion dollars.

Even the staunchest of Fed collaborators are having a tough time turning investor`s heads away from that reality while they keep crowing about how low gold is.
Mike

Chuck checks in:

Bill:
Nothing new or very insightful to say except that the probing for a bottom on gold and shares continues . In hindsight, it is easy to point out that the topping in the shares a couple of months ago while the dollar remained weak and gold was making its high of $431 was a sign that a correction of a weak dollar was about to end, and a counter rally was near. Of course, this counter move has not really affected other commodities but I think that one of two things must take place: The other commodities must turn here or gold will start to move up and sharply. Since I think that a lot of the dollar bounce is over, the latter scenario is more likely. I have always felt that the gold shares are more sensitive than the bullion to anticipating changes so I continue to recommend watching them closely, especially relative to the metal. So far, the XAU remains about 6% above its recent low even as gold has made a 3 month low today. That is very positive.

The other thing of note is the recent softness in stocks especially the tech stocks which are the most sensitive of the regular market. I think that a sharp break under 2000 in the Nasdaq could signal deep trouble ahead. It is a good time for a bear market in stocks. March through June have been the scene of many sharp declines, and this year promises another one. When the autopsy of this rigged market is examined in congress and before the courts, it will be fascinating to find out how the whole apparatus actually worked. You can be certain that we will see much more of Mr. Greenspan than we would ever imagine or desire.

One other perspective, and this on the spiritual plane. I don`t want to insert much in this column since that is not the purpose, but for those who would like some brief thoughts of the time that I believe we are in by a couple of phenomena, namely "The Passion" and "The Purpose Driven Life." please e-mail at the usual. Hang on. We are only at the beginning of earth shaking events. Chuck [e-mail]

Houston’s Dan Norcini:

Hi Bill:
A couple of thoughts our illustrious Fed chairman`s comments of today.


One has got to hand it Sir Alan - he has become amazingly adept at speaking in such a manner that anyone listening can hear exactly what he or she wants to hear. I think he has "outpoliticianed" the politicians!


Take his comments about a declining dollar helping to alleviate America`s chronic current account deficit:


"The currency depreciation that we have experienced of late should eventually help to contain our current account deficit as foreign producers export less to the United States."


What could possibly be more like music to the ears of dollar bears? Here we have the Fed chairman stating the obvious to any fundamentalist. U.S. imports need to become more competitive on the world market and the most obvious mechanism for allowing them to do so is a weakening dollar. Only the prospect of rising prices of imported goods from abroad will slow down American consumption.


He proceeds to state in his bland manner that this process could have taken place sooner rather than later if those nasty old Japanese and Chinese Central Banks would stop their forays into the forex market capping the value of their currencies - a seemingly backhanded way of telling them both to knock it off, especially the Japanese. This would on the surface indicate that Sir Alan thinks King Dollar needs to head lower and that this constant interference is becoming rather annoying.


But wait, he turns right around and states that current monetary policy is "accomodative" but at some point will have to move back towards neutral (read that Rate hike). By the way, isn`t that rather prescient of our illustrious leader! Dollar bulls interpret that as a sign that the Fed is going to begin the rate hike cycle sooner rather than later. "Yipee", they ecstatically yell and proceed to bid the dollar higher. After all, they blithely tell us, "higher rates will make the dollar more attractive."


Note to dollar bulls - don`t party too hearty just yet lest ye wake the comatose bond vigilantes and you find yourself cheering the dollar on as the stock market decides to plumb the depths of the sea while the bond market sinks of its own weight and consumer spending begins to dry up thanks to the elimination of the major source of fuel.


Still, I find it rather odd that the bond market reacted so benignly to the same speech and the same factors that caused the dollar to rally and the majors, especially the Euro, to collapse.


One gets the impression that both groups have been the victims of some strange incantation uttered by the Maestro that only allows certain phrases and words to enter their ears to the exclusion of all others.


"You will hear only that which I, the all-powerful, Wizard of Fed-Oz, wish you to hear."


"Bond traders will hear nothing of inflationary pressures; Dollar bears will hear nothing but my appreciation for the merits of a weaker dollar and dollar bulls will hear that I will raise interest rates next week or surely after this Friday`s jobs report."


In other words, Greenspan has learned to cover all the angles and like the consummate politician he has become, learn to speak in a manner that allows him more wiggle room than an earthworm stranded on concrete in the middle of July in the Texas sun.


Personally, I think Sir Alan needs to retire and make way for Ben "I love the printing press" Bernanke. Chance are that Baron Ben has not yet learned the finer arts of Fed speak and perhaps we might get a bit more candor.


Amazing times that we live in.
Dan

From The King Report:

Monday’s feature attraction was the continued commodity surge on Chinese buying. Commodities are in short supply. At current drawdown rates, copper supplies will be exhausted in two months and nickel will be gone in two weeks. Oil inventories are at a 28-year low. Silver made a 16-year high. Platinum hit $906, the highest level since 3/80, when the US had its highest inflation since the Civil War. The Chinese corner on global commodities is about to unleash very unpleasant consequences. Bottle necks in production could appear. A critical consideration is industrial company raw material contracts. When they expire, the cost jolt will be immense. There’s also the real possibility that suppliers will be unable to deliver commodities or honor contracts. The term ‘force majeure’ could litter financial stories. Hedgers and leveraged arbs might be ‘bought in’ on their short physical commodity positions.

Industrial companies could soon experience a profit squeeze due to rising commodity prices and the possibility that they are unable to garner necessary supplies. This is the type of economic action that the Fed is supposed to prevent. However, the perilously weak US economic and financial fundamentals have rendered the Fed to inflation-fostering agents. The die is cast. The Fed will not intervene. This means the likely eventuality is a flame out boom on unsustainable price increases and then a bust.

In the 1980 inflationary binge, government debt was $1 trillion. When Volcker administered the necessary medicine in 1980, the result was a severe recession that almost felled the US financial system when Mexico threatened to default on its debt (summer of 1982). We’re now $7T and soaring. Current aggregate US debt is a large multiple of 1980 levels. And that’s why Easy Al will not allow debt contraction, and consumer debt is in its 50th consecutive month of expansion.

We keep hearing much nonsense about consumers and the US economy being able to tolerate much hirer interest rates. The major factor or impetus in the US economy is not manufacturing, consumer spending, business spending or technology. The prime impetus in the US economy is finance. About $1.5 trillion/day of forex is traded in the US. Debt trading is about $1 trillion as is Eurodollar futures and options. Eurodollars are estimated to trade about the same as forex. Swaps and derivative numbers are difficult to discern, but reasonable estimates are about $1 trillion/day. Let’s say stocks, money markets, commodities, CP, and everything else total about $0.5 trillion. That’s about $6.5 trillion/day of paper or about 3 times annual US GDP in one week. The US economy is essential a carry trade…There are about 6000 hedge funds in the US with an estimated $600B in capital. They exist to speculate. If there were significant opportunities in the US’s real economy, the capital would flow there.

-END-

A Café member query about this March silver delivery talk:

Bill;
Would you consider giving me a more complete explanation of March silver open interest in today’s Midas. You state that we are down to 3390 contracts still open and in the next paragraph you state open interest has dropped to 110,578 contracts. Is the larger number open interest for all maturities? Deutsche was a stopper taking 92 of 272 deliveries. Does this mean 92 of their (Deutsche) were forced to deliver physical? Also, does date of record (JULY) mean people standing for delivery will not receive their physical until July? I have a theory about all of this and want to get my facts straight before I articulate it.
Thanks in advance
Rob

The open interest is the amount of an equal number of buyers and sellers in the various delivery months of a commodity. The March silver open interest will drop down to zero by the end of the month as buyers and sellers exit their positions. By the end of the month, the shorts must make delivery to the willing buyers, or cover their short positions.

The total open interest is sum of all the months traded, like in silver for example. Deutsche Bank took silver deliveries, most likely in behalf of a client, because the client wanted the silver. They can keep the silver, or redeliver it. When a commodity firm receives a delivery notice, it is allocated to the oldest buyers on record. If you have been long March silver since July, you are on record before some one who went long in February. The oldest date on record at the commodity firm I am using has moved up to November. Normally, the oldest date of record would be much more current as we are now a few days into the delivery period.

World gold production is still on the wane:

South Africa`s gold production decreased by 4.9% to 375.8 tons in the 2003 calendar year, down from the 395.2 tons produced in the previous year, the Chamber of Mines (CoM) said in a statement.

Gold output from CoM members fell by 10.4% in 2003 from the 2002 year.

-END-

Elliot Spitzer responds:

http://www.goldismoney.info/forums/showthread.php?p=31536#post31536

-END-

Derek VanArtsdalen from San Antonio:

Hi Bill,
You may recall that I wrote an article, published on October 20th last year at the Cafe, in which I provided some brief research about Buckminster Fuller`s assertion in his book Critical Path that copper is the "bellwether metal." It serves as a kind of leading indicator as to how the other metals will perform.

Well, given copper`s performance the past several months, which is nothing short of spectacular, I wonder if old Bucky was prescient in his theory. Is copper providing a peek at things to come for gold, silver, palladium and other precious metals? I wouldn`t doubt it, nor would I bet against the likes of Fuller and his genius. Copper was up more than 5c today alone!

Here`s a monthly view of copper`s breathtaking climb since the fall of last year:

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CP/M

Pretty amazing, eh? Looks like copper is in the process of forming a cup-with-handle pattern, which implies an upside explosion of multiples of its base to rim
measurement, in this case the difference between $0.60/lb. and $1.40/lb. In other words, multiples of .80/lb. Folks may not believe it yet, but at some point in the years ahead, copper will probably be selling for five bucks a pound or more! People may soon be hoarding pennies and other U.S. coins for the meltdown value of their metal content. Check out this excerpt from today`s Daily Reckoning:

"- The highest-flying commodities on the planet continue to be the lowly base metals. Week after week, they`re stealing the shine from their precious counterparts, gold and silver. Zinc advanced to a new 3-year high last week, while copper soared 3% to a new 8-year high of $1.343 a pound.

- "Steel prices are soaring," your New York editor was informed on Friday. The source of the observation is a life-long friend who earns a handsome living selling specialized steel products on the West Coast. "We`re seeing some huge price hikes," he says. "Some products will be going up 40% over the next two months... It really sucks."

- Happily for us all, Chairman Greenspan has assured the nation that inflation is non-existent. That`s a good thing too; otherwise we might have reason to be worried about the surging price of steel and crude oil and gasoline. Crude futures closed above $36 per barrel for the first time in almost a year, and ended the week with a gain of nearly $2. Average retail gasoline prices jumped to a 5-month high.

- Even if Alan Greenspan can`t see any inflation through his bifocals, the Chairman`s employer might soon feel the pinch of rising metals prices.

- "In 2004, the U.S. Mint will likely lose money minting pennies and nickels," observes our learned colleague, Dr. Steve Sjuggerud, editor of The Investment U E-Letter. "Starting this year, pennies and nickels may be worth more for their metal content than for their purchasing power... So it might be time to start burying pennies and nickels in your back yard," Sjuggerud suggests.

- "In 2003, it cost the U.S. Mint 0.98 cents to make a penny. This used to be an easy profit game for the government... In 2002, it cost 0.88 cents to make a penny. And in 2001, it cost 0.80 cents. But now, in 2004, it is almost assured that the government will lose money minting pennies.

- "The U.S. Mint counts September 30, 2003 as the end of its fiscal year. Since then, the price of copper has risen by 62%. Copper, you may be surprised to learn, is the main ingredient in a nickel. In 2003, it cost the government 3.78 cents to make a nickel. Easy profits right? But the government didn`t count on the dollar crashing. If the price of copper, the main ingredient in a nickel, stays the same, it`s possible that the cost of could rise by 62% in 2004. Then it`ll cost the government over six cents to produce a nickel.

- "The situation is similar with the penny. The main ingredient in pennies is not copper, but zinc. Actually, zinc makes up 97.5% of a penny. Zinc is up nearly 40% since the end of the 2003 fiscal year. So if the cost of producing a penny rises by 40%, it`ll cost the government 1.38 cents to make a penny.

- "How can the government get out of this mess?" Sjuggerud asks rhetorically. "Oh that`s an easy one... change the metal content of the coins. I`m sure it`s only a matter of time. Maybe next year we`ll be spending poker chips instead of pennies. And just think, someday down the road, even those poker chips will have more intrinsic value than a paper dollar."

- Please be advised, however, to prevent rotting you must wrap poker chips in thick plastic bags before burying them in the backyard."

###

Anyway, Bill, for those interested in reading the article on Bucky`s copper discoveries, which were made back in the 30s, they can simply do a Cafe Search and
type in the word "Buckminster" and my article will come up.

Thanks,
Derek

More on silver:

Hello Bill,
Thought you and the readers would love this one. We had an investment club meeting on Saturday and we heard some very bullish information about silver, which may see it go to 1:1 with gold before new mines come on.This prompted a few club friends on mine to muster up approx $500,000AUD of cash for a silver 5kg bar purchase.

Well the Perth mint has always delivered for us, even as you say Europe is having such problems for the small investors. Well they only had 114 bars when we ordered over 320. Bless their hearts they sold us the lot. But It will take over a month for them to deliver the rest . Get this 6 guys have just bought out the Perth Mint (Australian Bullion Co) for a month for 500K. What happens to everyone else??? Go GATA, Go Butler, Go Morgan, I love you all. You are making my life so much fun. ?#@% the Cartel, you are going down.

Its still hard to help those closest to you as most of my social friends still think I am insane for investing in SILVER. Marcus my best mate`s family and work buddies think he is a tripper. Yeah it feels good , but I would prefer to protect them, not see them buy another investment house.

Got to love 2004 and 5. GOT to love GATA.

Tom Wilson
Margaret River
Western Australia

The gold shares continue their yo-yo performance, sinking back to support areas. The HUI dropped to 220.71, down 6.57, and closed on its lows as did the XAU which fell 3.24 to 97.71.

Nothing has changed as far as the big picture is concerned. What we have had these past many weeks is a lot of noise. Yes, gold has dropped back, but the shares have held their ground. Even with today’s big loss, silver closed at its 4th highest level in 7 years. The reasons to be in gold, silver and their respective shares are stronger than ever.

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

MIDAS

Appendix

From the FinanceAsia.com web site:


Gold to go higher in 2004

By Jephraim Gundzik 02 March 2004

Will gold reach $500 per ounce by year end?

In December, the monthly average price of gold exceeded $400 per ounce, its highest level since 1996. Investment demand, driven by increasing global geopolitical risk and dollar weakness, helped propel the price of gold higher by over $70 per ounce in 2003. In addition, hedge unwinding by gold producers and limited gold production also underpinned gold prices.

In 2004, the price of gold is expected to continue rising, reaching levels comparable to those seen in the early 1980s during the last oil price shock. Factors that pushed gold prices higher in 2003 will again drive gold prices higher in 2004.

Most important for gold prices will be the strength of investor demand. Increasing global geopolitical instability, further dollar depreciation and growing risk of dollar devaluation will all strengthen investor demand for gold.

Demand from producer de-hedging will continue at last year`s pace. Gold supply is expected to remain nearly stable. Gold production will increase slightly while central bank sales of gold are expected to decline. With investor demand expected to increase and supply to hold roughly stable, the price of gold should approach $500 per ounce by the end of 2004.

The key factors in creating investment demand for gold in 2003 were increasing global geopolitical instability and dollar depreciation. Last year global geopolitical risk was pushed to its highest level since the Korean War.

The increasingly unilateralist foreign policy of the Bush administration was the primary factor driving global geopolitical risk higher. Unilateralism has defined U.S. positions on issues ranging from trade to the global environment.

However, the most profound and damaging expression of unilateralism has been through the pursuit of the war on terrorism. The invasion and occupation of Iraq explicitly contravened the United Nations and abrogated international law.

This severely damaged U.S. foreign relations with many countries, most notably France, Germany and Russia. In addition, the war on terrorism has also inflamed tensions between Israelis and Palestinians, and increased instability on the Korean peninsula.

Lastly, the war on terrorism has not subdued global terrorism. Terrorist strikes have become more frequent. The U.S. presidential election will be fundamental to pushing global geopolitical instability higher in 2004. Continued hardening of unilateralism, driven by electoral politics, will further strain US foreign relations and intensify instability in the Middle East and the Korean peninsula.

Most importantly, the probability of a major terrorist strike in the US and against US interests abroad is increasing. As in 2003, the US-centric nature of global geopolitical instability argues for further dollar depreciation this year.

Last year the strong dollar policy advocated by the US Treasury since the mid-1990s was subtlely abandoned. It is generally assumed that dollar policy was changed in order to improve the competitiveness of US exports, spurring growth of manufacturing jobs.

It is more probable that dollar policy was changed, with heavy influence from the Federal Reserve, in order to counter building deflationary pressure in the US economy. According to the advance estimate of gross domestic product released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis on January 30, deflation of durable goods prices accelerated to -3.7 percent in 2003 from -2.9 percent in 2002.

Durable goods purchases accounted for 20 percent of total US gross domestic product in 2003. In addition, deflation remained stubborn in non-residential fixed investment prices. This investment accounted for a further nine percent of US gross domestic product last year.

To counter deflationary pressure, the US Treasury, at the behest of the Federal Reserve, will continue earnestly exporting US deflation, via dollar depreciation, to the rest of the world in 2004.

In addition to abandonment of the strong dollar policy, the economic threat posed by the staggering twin US deficits are likely to push the value of the dollar lower in 2004. Last year, the US current account deficit was estimated to have reached a record 5.1 percent of GDP while the US general government deficit, which includes both the federal and state governments, was likely to have approached six percent of GDP.

This year, weaker US economic growth will ease the current account deficit toward four percent of GDP. However, very loose fiscal policy will push the general government deficit toward seven percent of GDP. The era of massive twin deficits in the US has returned.

The last such episode, which occurred in the mid-1980s, heralded a 30 percent decline in the real effective exchange rate of the dollar. By comparison, the real effective exchange rate of the dollar has depreciated by less than 10 percent over the past 18 months.

Nearly $1 trillion of foreign capital is funding the US public sector and current account deficits. About $800 billion of this foreign money is invested in US government, agency and corporate bonds. The size of these deficits and the nature of their funding make the dollar very vulnerable to depreciation, and long-term interest rates exposed to upward pressure.

Higher long-term interest rates will strongly undermine the growth of credit that has been crucial to US personal consumption expenditure and overall economic growth in the past two years. Assuming that dollar depreciation remains controlled, the dollar/euro exchange rate should exceed 1.40 by the end of 2004.

The yen/dollar exchange rate should reach about 98 by the end of 2004. The weight of foreign investment in the US financing the large twin deficits indicates that the risk of much greater dollar weakness is substantial. Expected dollar depreciation, the large current account and fiscal deficits and increasing geopolitical instability, driven by US electoral politics, make the dollar a very unlikely safe haven for global investors. Foreign capital flight from the US could easily trigger a large dollar devaluation.

Increasing global geopolitical instability, weak US economic fundamentals and the preponderance of foreign investment in US fixed-income securities imply dollar depreciation will continue in 2004 and suggest the possibility of a large dollar devaluation. These factors are expected to increase the demand for gold among investors.

In the past two years, producer de-hedging has also contributed to improved demand for gold. De-hedging, or reversal of forward gold sales by mining companies, has gained momentum with industry consolidation, pressure to improve accounting transparency and rising gold prices. Producer de-hedging created demand for 423 tons of gold in 2002 and an estimated 400 tons in 2003. In 2004, de-hedging is expected to induce demand for another 400 tons of gold.

Fabrication demand for gold is expected to increase by around one percent this year after growing by an estimated three percent in 2003. Against the background of increasing investor demand for gold, continued producer de-hedging and steady fabrication demand, the supply of gold is expected to be steady.

Gold production from mining has been nearly stable over the past two years. Consolidation among mining companies and mines has led to consolidation of gold production.

Gold production should increase by only around one percent in 2004 to 2,625 tons. Apart from mining production, the other significant component of gold supply has been central bank sales of gold reserves. In 1999, 15 European central banks agreed to limit their sale of gold reserves to a total of 400 tons annually for five years.

This agreement expires in September but will very likley be extended for another five years. Speculation surrounds the scope of the next central bank agreement. Expectations for the amount of gold these central banks will agree to sell annually range from 400 tons to 650 tons. While at least two more European central banks are expected to join the next gold sales agreement, the aggragate amount of gold that these banks will sell is very unlikely to increase sharply due to the impact that such a change would have on prices.

In 2002, total central bank sales of gold amounted to 559 tons. Central bank gold sales are estimated to have increased slightly to about 575 tons in 2003. This year, renegotiation of the central bank gold sales agreement is expected to slow central bank gold sales to about 500 tons.

The final element of supply is scrap. Supply from scrap was 835 tons in 2002 and an estimated 865 tons in 2003. Rising gold prices have encouraged an increase in scrap supply. This year, scrap supply, pushed higher by rising gold prices, will probably climb toward 900 tons. The rise in scrap supply will moderate the decline in supply from lower central bank gold sales.

Overall, the total supply of gold should be relatively unchanged this year. With gold supply steady, demand - specifically investment demand - will determine gold prices this year. As in 2003, investment demand will benefit from global geopolitical instability and dollar weakness.

However, this year, geopolitical instability and dollar weakness are very likely to intensify, pushing the price of gold toward $500 per ounce. Gold and gold mining stocks will remain an attractive investment and hedging vehicle in 2004. Over the next few months, the price of gold is expected to be volatile. This volitility will come as a result of speculation ahead of the next central bank gold sales agreement. However, once this agreement is finalized, probably in the second quarter, the price of gold will move higher.

The price of gold will continue to rise as the US presidential elections approach in November.

Jephraim Gundzik is President of Condor Advisors. Condor Advisers provides independent, emerging markets investment risk analysis to individuals and institutions globally.

[einmalpleitereicht]

Transformation

By Theodore Butler

(The following essay was written by silver analyst Theodore Butler. Investment Rarities does not necessarily endorse these views, which may or may not prove to be correct.)

The silver market is changing so much so that you have to step back to really appreciate the significance and magnitude of the change. I`m talking about a sea-change in significance. The most profound change is on the part of the silver investor. It has recently occurred to me that the typical silver investor truly "gets it." More so than in any other asset, I believe that the silver investor has become the ultimate educated investor.

Within hours of the statistical release of the delivery and open interest data, I was reading in-depth analysis and reporting of the data on Internet chat sites, in e-mail`s and in various articles. This analysis was measured, accurate, and quite good. This has been a developing process, but it is still surprising to me to see how advanced and sophisticated silver market participants have become. Compared to the research emanating from the establishment analytical community (where, in a recent survey the consensus was that silver had already seen its highs for the year), the thinking of Internet silver participants and regular investors is miles ahead. This is truly remarkable.

Also remarkable is the quality and caliber of the content of the letters that many have sent to CFTC and the COMEX, some copies of which were sent to me. The same applies to the comments and sheer number of names on the Internet silver petition. This, too, represents a significant change. This is a type of empowerment that comes when a large, previously unorganized group of people, come to understand and grasp the truth about the pricing and manipulation of the silver market. Too many people are asking too many questions for this issue to go away, as the regulators would prefer. The fact is, that once you come to understand the real story in silver (the twenty year price manipulation of a commodity in a structural deficit), that understanding will be with you for the rest of your life. The coming termination of the manipulation will enhance your understanding and appreciation of the scope of market history we are witnessing. It is an experience you will relate to your grandchildren, hopefully to go along with their increased inheritance.

Another change is in the actual price of silver. An Internet friend of mine told me something the other day that set me back a bit. He told me that silver just had its highest monthly closing price in sixteen years. I checked and he was right (Thanks Gregg). Even though silver did close the month higher than any monthly close in 16 years, it is not that far above its average price for the last decade and a half. More importantly, the price of silver is still manipulated. While I am sure that the regulators will be quick to jump on the price rise in silver as proving silver is responding to the forces of real supply and demand, and is, therefore, not manipulated, that`s hogwash. The CFTC and the COMEX would love to have you forget how silver was depressed for decades ,in spite of a known and documented deficit, because of the recent rally, but I think the educated silver investor will see right through that concocted argument.

There is only one thing that will tell you when silver is no longer manipulated. That’s the elimination of the excessive and uneconomic dealer short position on the COMEX. The key word here is excessive. The manipulation began in 1982-83 with this excessive dealer short position, and the manipulation will only be pronounced dead when that short position in no longer excessive. What`s excessive? Simple - a short position out of line with every other traded commodity; a short position greater than annual world production; a short position several times greater than known world inventories. If you take the time to compare the silver short position on the COMEX with world production and known world inventories, and do the same with every other US exchange-traded commodity, you`ll see, clearly, that silver stands out like a sore thumb.

While a few have short positions greater than total inventories, none share the dubious distinction of COMEX silver, which regularly sports a short position greater than world production and total world known inventories combined. This is truly an absurd condition, having a short position many times greater than all the known silver in the world and greater than all the silver that could be produced in an entire year. Your common sense should be screaming - how can you be short more than what exists or could be produced? And if it`s no big deal, as the regulators contend, why doesn`t this bizarre condition exist in any other commodity?

This excessive short position is a big deal. So big, that it is easy to pinpoint the start of the silver manipulation, and its ultimate end, by looking solely at the extent of the short position. In fact, it was what led me to discover the silver manipulation in the first place, almost twenty years ago. I was a commodity broker/analyst for Drexel Burnham Lambert looking for my next investment play. I had just completed (successful) plays in soybeans, orange juice and US Treasury bonds, both on outright and spread positions, as well as conducting a straddle options writing program on the OEX. A client suggested I look at the fundamentals of silver, because he knew I liked to look under the hood. He claimed there was a deficit in silver and that it had peculiar and attractive price-inelastic production and consumption characteristics. The client, who later became my silver Godfather (Izzy), gave the suggestion in the form of a challenge. The challenge was to explain silver`s low price, in spite of the deficit, and no voluntary inventory dishoarding.

Even though I had traded silver over the years, I never really studied it, so I took Izzy’s challenge, and was hooked. For almost a year, I pondered the conundrum of a commodity in a deficit with no sharp price increase. I read and reread everything it was possible to read on silver. At first, I thought it was strictly a perception problem, with investors just not seeing the facts. I went so far as to challenge the statistical reporting agencies, because I thought this might be the problem. I succeeded in getting the US Bureau of Mines (now the USGS) to revise how they calculated industrial silver demand, from voluntary reported demand from members of the Silver User`s Association to one that used the more statistically correct apparent demand method. This is still in use 20 years later. But this did nothing to resolve the low price.

Then, one day it hit me. I was looking for something that was different about silver from other commodities that would explain why the silver price was out of line with its fundamentals and with other commodities. In scanning the Wall Street Journal`s commodities page, it looked like silver wasn`t out of line in terms of volume and open interest with other markets. Then, it jumped out at me. Rather than just look at the open interest in terms of the tens of thousands of contracts, I converted just what those contracts meant in terms of ounces of silver. I did the same with all the other commodities. Then I compared them to their respective domestic and world production totals. I was stunned. When I converted the number of contracts into ounces, and pounds, and tons, and bushels, and barrels, a completely different picture emerged. All the commodities, then and now, shared something in common, namely, all had a total long and short position well below world annual production. All, that is, except one - silver.

While silver`s COMEX total short position was greater than world production, other commodities didn`t come close to that size short position. For instance, crude oil, had a total short position of many hundreds of thousands of contracts. When you converted those contracts into equivalent barrels of oil, the short position came to only 2% or 3% of world production. The COMEX gold short position did make up 30% to 50% of world production, but when you factored in known world gold inventories of billions of ounces, the short position was back in the 2% range. Only silver had a short position greater than inventories and production.

This same pattern of all commodities having roughly the same short position vs. production/inventory ratios (except silver) has prevailed since I discovered it in 1985. What does this mean? To me, it is the clearest verification of the silver manipulation. It can`t be a coincidence that silver`s price has been noticeably depressed for the same two decades that silver has had the shockingly large comparative short position. If a small group of short traders got together to sell massive amounts of anything short, like they have done in silver, the price of whatever they sold would be in the gutter. (Whether it would stay in the gutter, like silver, is a different story, due to the uniqueness of silver leasing.) Imagine what would happen if a group of concentrated shorts got together to sell millions of grain contracts, or tens of millions of oil contracts, or billions of shares of a company`s common stock. There would be obvious price dislocations of an extreme nature. Yet this is precisely what has happened in COMEX silver. Tens of thousands of COMEX silver contracts are equal to hundreds of thousands and millions of contracts in other commodities, when converted to real world equivalents.

What does this mean for the future? The price of silver has been, and is, manipulated because of the excessive short position in COMEX silver (and leasing). The price of silver will stay manipulated, even if it moves higher, as long as the COMEX short position stays at excessive levels. When the COMEX silver short position falls in line with the short vs. production ratio of all other commodities, the manipulation will be terminated. (If you`re looking for a number. I`d guess when the futures open interest on falls to 30 to 50 thousand contracts.)

Until the Comex silver short position declines to levels comparable to all other commodities, we won`t see the major top in the silver price. That does not mean we will not see bone-jarring sell-offs, but that we will have not seen the top. It may turn out that the top will come well after the excessive and uneconomic short position is largely eliminated, but certainly not before. But don`t turn your back on the concentrated dealer shorts. As long as they are short, you must be prepared for their tricks to trigger sharp sell-offs, designed to cause liquidations. When these guys are in the same room, you must hold on to your wallet. That means only fully-paid for positions, or strong backing to anything leveraged. Get used to the volatility. It isn`t going away.

Just a quick update on the March delivery situation. After two delivery days, there was a relatively small number of contracts delivered, and a relatively large amount remaining, but nothing shocking at this point. What was more telling to me was that AIG didn`t show up for the delivery process, so far, either as an issuer or a stopper, for the first time in my memory. This is a further confirmation to my theory they may be abandoning the short side and maybe the silver business completely. There is still a very large, and very manipulative total dealer net short position of some 463 million ounces, as of the latest COT, but numbers still suggest that this big short is nowhere as aggressive as he once was. Without the big short`s protection the other dealer shorts may start to break rank.

We are at a critical junction, and I don`t think we`ll stay near the $7 level for long. The dealer short community is under severe financial pressure, not just from silver, but a whole host of other commodity shorts, as well. But, like a cornered rat, they are not to be underestimated. They will exploit any avenue or news event to cause a sharp sell-off. Against their desperation, the overwhelming evidence of strong industrial demand and shortages for almost everything, dictate that it`s just a matter of time before the silver manipulation is broken. Now, more than ever, the no-brainer is real silver.

[superman6]

Heute in der neuen Meldung von Investika
war u.a. folgendes interessant:

Im Anhang steht, dass man 1,5% an Cambrian verkauft hat-dieses ist für mich überaschend - im Gegenzug wurden 1,1% an Deepgreen gekauft. Welche Firmenstrategie hiermit
verfolgt wird, kann ich nicht sagen.

Aber das Wichtigste ist doch die Bestätigung der Aufstockung in Raten an der Subranum-Konzession:
Für je 250 T$ wird die Beteiligung um 10% erhöht,
man müsste doch jetzt bereits die Beteiligung auf 20% erhöht haben.

Aber der absolute Hammer ist doch Folgendes:

Das Geld zur Aufstockung auf 45% ist in voller Höhe vorhanden (in Cash)!


Wir werden es erleben.

[awini]

Hallo,
Mahendra lässt wieder grüssen.Heute neuste Ausgabe.

http://www.mahendraprophecy.com/home_flash_details.asp?home_…

[ulfur]

Mahendra: "Thursday gold can rise more than 2 to 3%."

Das wären rd 8 bis 12 Dollar.

Das verstieße ja gegen die GATA Regel von max. 6 Dollar.

[ulfur]

finanzen.net
Gold- und Ölpreise rückläufig von -tz-


Mittwoch 3. März 2004, 12:00 Uhr

Der Goldpreis ist in der vergangenen Nacht gesunken. Auch der Preis für Öl der Sorte Light Crude (leichtes US-Öl ), für Heating Oil und für die führende Nordseesorte Brent Crude ging zurück.

Die Nachrichtenlage zeigt ich sich kaum verändert. Sie hat wenig Substanzielles für die Ölmärkte zu bieten. Der Terror im Irak hat keinen Einfluss auf die Preisbildung. Der Aufbau der Ölinfrastruktur schreitet voran.

Aus Venezuela ist zu vernehmen, dass die Opposition es nicht geschafft haben soll,eine genügend hohe Anzahl von Stimmen zu sammeln, um den Präsidenten abwählen zu können. Dennoch liefern die Unruhen in Venezuela Argumente für eine weitere Verteuerung der Ölkontrakte. Venezuela befindet sich seit einigen Jahren in einer sozialen Schieflage. Und die Opposition versucht nun Präsident Hugo Chavez los zu werden. Da Venezuela das wichtigste Land für die Versorgung der USA mit Rohöl und Benzin ist, drohte die Bush-Regierung mit einem militärischen Eingreifen, wenn die Lage nicht unter Kontrolle gebracht wird. Chavez drohte daraufhin mit einem Lieferboykott für Öl und Benzin.

Die Ölvorratslage der USA ist weiterhin nicht überragend. Erst wenn die Preise sinken, werden die Lager wieder aufgefüllt. Nun dienten aber die niedrigen Lagerbestände in der Vergangenheit als Begründung für hohe Preise, weil die Bestände als Indikator für die Versorgungslage galten.

Auch die sensiblen US-Raffinerien machen immer wieder auf sich aufmerksam und halten durch ihren geringen Auslastungsgrad die Preise hoch. Der Stillstand der vielen Raffinerien ist aber nur teilweise auf Ausfälle zurückzuführen. Viele Raffinerien werden jetzt auf das Sommergeschäft mit Benzin umgestellt. In diesen Fällen handelt es sich um saisonal bedingte Abschaltungen. Sie sollten keinen Anlass für steigende Preise geben.

Das ohnehin unspektakuläre Wetter verliert zunehmend an Einfluss. Den Winter scheinen die Marktteilnehmer gedanklich bereits abgehakt zu haben. So rücken die US-Heizölvorräte in den Hintergrund und die Aufmerksamkeit richtet sich die geringen Benzin- und Rohölvorräte. Dies geschieht üblicherweise erst zum Ende eines Winters. In diesem Jahr kommt der Wechsel auf Grund der milden Temperaturen recht früh.

Dennoch treiben Sorgen um die Versorgung nach dem Winter die Kraftstoffpreise in die Höhe. Der Schwefelgehalt im Benzin muss nach den neuen US-Umweltschutzvorschriften niedriger sein als früher. Viele Raffinerien in den USA und in Venezuela können diese Normen nicht erfüllen, somit fallen Produktionskapazitäten aus.

Dagegen teilte das OPEC-Mitglied Nigeria mit, dass man sich erst an einer Ausstoßkürzung beteiligen werde, wenn die Preise deutlich gefallen seien. Die Vermutung liegt nahe, dass auch andere OPEC-Staaten so denken. Analysten sind der Meinung, dass das Kartell nicht in der Lage sein wird, seine Mitglieder an einer Überproduktion zu hindern. Daraus resultiert die Annahme, dass die Preise mittelfristig fallen werden.

Dass die Preise dennoch nicht sinken, geht auf das Konto der Fonds. Diese haben erstaunliche Massen von Long-Kontrakten angesammelt. Für sie ist der Trend derzeit die beste Unterstützung des Trends. Die Stimmung ist bullisch wie selten zuvor.

Längerfristig besteht die Möglichkeit steigender Preise, da der Ölbedarf in den kommenden Jahren rasant wachsen wird. Insbesondere China benötigt für sein beeindruckendes Wirtschaftswachstum viel Öl.

Inzwischen steht der Rohölpreis über 60 Tage ununterbrochen über dem Zielpreisband von 22 bis 28 Dollar pro Barrel, aber die OPEC handelt nicht, obwohl ihr Preisbandmechanismus eine Erhöhung der Fördermenge vorsieht. Preistreibend wirkt sich hier die aktuelle Dollarschwäche aus. Die in Dollar bezahlten Förderländer wollen keinen Kaufkraftverlust ihrer Einnahmen hinnehmen und streben deshalb ein hohes Preisniveau an. Die OPEC führt die hohen Preise allein auf Spekulationen zurück und ist daher nicht bereit, durch eine Mengensteigerung für Entspannung zu sorgen.

Beim ihrem Treffen am 10. Februar in Agier beschlossen die Ölminister der elf OPEC-Staaten überraschend eine Drosselung der Fördermenge, da sie im Frühjahr einen saisonbedingten Preisverfall befürchten. Infolge der hohen Ölpreise ging man allgemein davon aus, dass die Quoten nicht verändert werden, sondern dass lediglich auf Einhaltung der bestehenden offiziellen Quoten gedrängt wird. Das hieße immerhin eine reale Reduktion der Ölströme um 1,5 bis 1,8 Mio. Barrel pro Tag. Doch die Tagenden gingen weiter. Auf Drängen Saudi Arabiens wurde eine Quotensenkung von 1 Mio. Barrel pro Tag ab dem 01. April beschlossen.

Jedoch sind die Kartellmitglieder mit Blick auf die eigenen Kassen erfahrungsgemäß träge beim Drosseln der Ölhähne. Ob sich die beschlossene Reduktion von insgesamt 2,5 Mio. Barrel durchsetzen lässt, wird von einigen Analysten bereits angezweifelt. Die OPEC behält sich vor, ihre Entscheidung auf einem weiteren Meeting Ende März gegebenenfalls zu korrigieren.

Preisentlastend wirkte bisher, dass die wichtigsten Nicht-OPEC-Länder Russland, Norwegen und Mexiko eine Reduzierung ihrer Liefermengen ablehnen. Zusammen mit den zunehmenden irakischen Exporten könnte die Kürzung der OPEC kompensiert werden. Kürzt das Kartell die Fördermengen um die Preise stabil zu halten, droht ein Verlust von Marktanteilen an Nicht-OPEC- Mitglieder.

Analysten konzentrieren sich jedoch wieder verstärkt auf die Fundamentaldaten. Die Konjunkturdaten der vergangenen Monate zeigten mehrheitlich ein positives Bild, zudem wollen Analysten nun nach vorne schauen und hoffen auf eine wirtschaftliche Wende. Grund zum Optimismus sehen sie in den Steuersenkungen und im niedrigen Zinsniveau.

Der Kurs des Euro fiel von 1,2214 Dollar am letzten Handelstag auf nun 1,2139 Dollar und liegt damit weiter auf hohem Niveau. Mitte Februar erreichte der Euro ein Rekordhoch von 1,2927 Dollar und liegt auch jetzt noch deutlich über seinem Kurs bei der Einführung der Gemeinschaftswährung am 04. Januar 1999 von 1,1886 Dollar. Ein schwächerer Dollar macht das in US-Dollar angeschriebene Gold und Öl für Anleger aus anderen Währungsräumen billiger und damit attraktiver. Allerdings führt er auch dazu, dass die OPEC nichts gegen die hohen Preise unternimmt, da die Einnahmen des Kartells an Wert verlieren.

Feinunze Gold: 393,80 Dollar (-5,80 Dolllar)

Feinunze Silber: 6,725 Dollar (-0,220 Dollar)

Light Crude: 36,66 Dollar (-0,20 Dollar)

Brent Crude: 32,85 Dollar (-0,30 Dollar)

Heating Oil: 0,9345 Dollar (-0,0134 Dollar)

Die unterschiedlichen Preise werden durch die Qualität des Öls gerechtfertigt. Je höherwertiger das Öl ist, um so kostengünstiger ist seine Weiterverarbeitung.

http://de.biz.yahoo.com/031104/85/3qdas.html

[bluemoons]

http://www.flegel-g.de/Verfassungsklage-0010.html

[Saludo]

!

Dieser Beitrag wurde vom System automatisch gesperrt. Bei Fragen wenden Sie sich bitte an [e-mail]

[superman6]

saludo

du darfst wohl alles essen, aber nicht alles
wi..

[einmalpleitereicht]

Wo ist Thai ?????????????




mach mir langsam Sorgen.

Lese hier aber auch erst seit ca. 2 Monaten mit und weiss daher nicht, ob es normal ist, wenn man von ihm plötzlich nichts mehr hört ???

wer kann dazu was sagen ?

[niemandweiss]

Langsam ist es wirklich mysteriös. Vielleicht sollte er mal eine Nachricht schicken.

Grüss Dich Thai, falls du hier noch liest. Meine Mail-Adresse

[e-mail]

Vielleicht können wir behilflich sein.

Gruss
niemandweiss

[ulfur]

Wo ist Thaiguru ???

In den Fängen der Gold Kabale?

[ulfur]

Vor kurzem hat unser famoser Bundesbankpräsident Welteke noch behauptet, der starke Euro gefährde nicht die Konjunkturentwicklung :
"Das EZB-Ratsmitglied wandte sich zudem gegen Befürchtungen der Unternehmen, der hohe Wechselkurs bremse die Exporte und sei damit eine Gefahr für die inländische Konjunktur: "Es ist weniger das Wechselkursniveau als vielmehr große Kursschwankungen, die die Planungssicherheit von Unternehmen und Verbrauchern beeinträchtigen und dem Wachstum schaden können."
http://www.manager-magazin.de/geld/artikel/0,2828,285496,00.…






Aus der FTD vom 4.3.2004
Aufschwung in Euro-Zone droht zu kippen
Von Sebastian Dullien, Berlin, und Andreas Krosta, Frankfurt

Das Wirtschaftswachstum im Euro-Raum droht 2004 spürbar schwächer auszufallen als von Ökonomen und Europäischer Zentralbank bislang erwartet. Vorallem die Spätfolgen der Euro-Aufwertung wirken hemmend auf das Wachstum.

Nach der März-Auswertung des FTD-Euro-Indikators dürfte das Bruttoinlandsprodukt im ersten Halbjahr kaum mehr als ein Prozent wachsen. Die EZB rechnet offiziell für das Gesamtjahr mit einem Plus von 1,6 Prozent.

Gedämpft wird das Wachstum vor allem durch die Spätfolgen der Euro-Aufwertung 2003, so die Analyse der acht europäischen Forschungsinstitute, die den Indikator monatlich berechnen.

Der Rückgang des Euro-Kurses in den vergangenen Tagen hatte unter Ökonomen die Hoffnung genährt, dass die konjunkturellen Folgen der Währungsaufwertung begrenzt bleiben könnten. Dies hatte Spekulationen gedämpft, dass die EZB auf ihrer Sitzung am Donnerstag eine baldige Zinssenkung in Aussicht stellen werde.

Wechselkurse belasten Wettbewerbsfähigkeit

"Der Konjunktur steht wegen der Euro-Stärke ein spürbarer Rückschlag bevor", sagte Gustav Horn vom Deutschen Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW). Die Wechselkursverschiebung mache europäische Produkte international weniger wettbewerbsfähig und dämpfe dadurch den Export. Daran ändere auch die Korrektur des Euro-Kurses in den vergangenen Tagen nichts. "Der Euro ist immer noch teuer", sagte Horn.

Am Mittwoch war der Euro kurzzeitig auf unter 1,21 $ und damit den tiefsten Stand seit Anfang Dezember gefallen. Im Saldo hat er innerhalb der vergangenen zwei Jahre allerdings immer noch fast 40 Prozent an Wert gewonnen.

Bereits in der vergangenen Woche hatte eine Reihe von Konjunkturindikatoren auf eine Schwächung des Wachstums durch die Euro-Aufwertung hingedeutet. So hat sich das Geschäftsklima in Deutschland, Italien und Belgien eingetrübt.

Langsames Wachstum

Am Donnerstag deuteten auch Umfragen unter Einkaufsmanagern im Dienstleistungssektor auf ein langsameres Wachstum hin. Die entsprechenden Indizes des NTC-Instituts fielen sowohl für Deutschland als auch für die Euro-Zone um je 1,1 Punkte. Damit liegen beide Werte mit 54,1 Punkten und 56,2 Punkten zwar noch deutlich über der 50-Punkte-Marke, deren Überschreiten eine Expansion anzeigt. Die Indikatoren deuten aber auf ein deutlich schwächeres Wachstum als im letzten Aufschwung Ende der 90er Jahre.

Nach Einschätzung von Experten erhöhen diese Daten den Druck auf die EZB zu einer Zinssenkung. Sollte sich der Wachstumsrückgang in kommenden Indikatoren bestätigen, werde die Notenbank handeln, sagte Lorenzo Codogno, Europa-Chefvolkswirt der Bank of America. Die Wahrscheinlichkeit dafür schätzte der Ökonom auf 40 Prozent.
http://www.ftd.de/pw/eu/1077951806805.html?nv=hptn

[ludopata27]

habt ihr`s mal über seine email-adresse probiert? hat er ja zuletzt bei seinem abschied nicht zum ersten mal genannt...por si acaso (spanisch)...falls....

[einmalpleitereicht]

hab euch auch die charts mit rangehängt
die kommen jedoch alle zum schluss und sind nicht im text.



bin halt kein layout-profi wie unser thai

......wo steckst du junge ???....




March 3 - Gold $392.30 down 80 cents - Silver $6.72 up 4 cents

Hedge Fund Blow Out Mostly Over / Silver Remains In Explosive Mode
The most successful men in the end are those whose success is the result of steady accretion. It is the man who carefully advances step by step, with his mind becoming wider and wider -- and progressively better able to grasp any theme or situation -- persevering in what he knows to be practical, and concentrating his thought upon it, who is bound to succeed in the greatest degree ...Alexander Graham Bell


GO GATA!!!!!

What a day! It was a gulper again this morning when I woke up. Gold was called $3.20 lower and silver was 17 cents lower. I felt like going back to sleep.

Whether by accident, or design, the name of the game the past two days has been an effort by the powers/market forces to blow out the hedge funds of their short dollar, long commodity positions. The CRB dropped close to 9 points in two days and the dollar has soared. Early today the dollar shot up to 89.95, almost 1 point higher on the day, while the euro sank to 120.52. Later on the dollar fell back to 89.14, up only .21, while the euro recovered to 122.14, down 0.11. The damage to the hedge funds the past week/days has been extensive and should have about run its course.

Yesterday I mentioned the gold traders were apt to go after the stops at $390. On their second attempt this morning they were successful, taking gold down to $387.40. Mission accomplished after a rumor surfaced that a Washington think tank said the Fed was going to raise rates in June if Friday’s employment number was a good one. Why something so far out should mean squat is beyond me. Sounds more like a story spread by those wanting to force the hedge funds out of their positions. Regardless, the dollar went ballistic for a brief period of time on the rumor.

Guess who two of the most significant gold buyers were today? The corrupt ones, JP Morgan Chase and Goldman Sachs. Morgan Stanley must have been a buyer too. Yesterday, GS and MS were the featured sellers. As such, the gold open interest rose 4019 contracts to 237,352. Surely, it contracted sharply today with the likes of the gold police aggressively covering their shorts.

That should be about it for the recent gold sell-off. The reasons to own gold remain too powerful for it to keep on going down very much longer. Now that the hedge funds have received their spanking by the market, we ought to see the dollar come back down and many of the commodity markets resume their bullish course.

All this talk about the ECB/rate cut and the US employment report on Friday gives me a headache. It’s all about spin and market posturing.

The silver news is very exciting. The silver notices came out late today. Perhaps that is the reason it ran up 14 cents with gold still down on the day and the dollar much higher. Yet after it was announced their were 310 deliveries at 10:07 AM EST, Morgan Stanley bombed the market, although it didn’t take all that much volume to take silver all the way back down. When gold was trashed, silver retested its opening low, however, unlike gold, it was never breached. While gold never could make it up on the day, silver drifted right back up, one of the FEW commodities to close higher for the daily session. Copper, for example, was annihilated early, dropping 10 cents at one point, eventually closing 6.75 cents lower.

Some silver highlights:

*A featured player bought March silver and sold the May aggressively. The speculation is this player wants to take delivery of the March contract.

*For the first time, the March gained over May. The spread narrowed as March went up 3.3 cents and the May rose 2.7 cents. My colleagues and I have been waiting for the spread to narrow as we go into the delivery period to demonstrate proof our opinion the physical silver market is about to get VERY TIGHT!

*Once again Deutsche Bank was a featured stopper of the March contract, taking 114 of the 310 deliveries. This further adds to the MIDAS speculation for some time that some significant European buyers are looking to the March silver contract to secure their physical supply. The Bank of Nova Scotia was the other featured stopper, as has also been the case the past week.

*Good buying came into the curb market in silver after the close. One well known gold trader bought 100 lots paying up as much as 2 cents over the official Comex close.

*Silver has popped above $6.80 three times now, flirting with blowing through the roof. It has failed to do so, in my opinion, because of the coinciding pressure on gold. If gold has seen its lows and heads up from here as I think it will, silver should fly for the reasons oft-expressed in this column. My guess is we will see $7.50 silver within two weeks.



The John Brimelow Report

A Bear trap. Strange Official noises

Wednesday, March 03, 2004


Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $ 7.24, PM $7.18, with world gold at $390.75 and $390.20. High; well above legal import level. Shanghai Gold Exchange premiums also rose: over $3 for the various grades; for once on a respectable increase in volume.

Surveying the currencies of the major bullion consuming countries (India, Indonesia, Korea, China, the Arab states, etc.) produces the information that their currencies went up little as the dollar weakened this year (because they are linked, sometimes surreptitiously, to the $US), and have weakened little this week (although the Indian Reserve Bank did seize the chance to edge the rupee down a little this morning). Consequently, the enthusiasm for selling gold because the $US has risen against the Euro is entirely misplaced. Short term this is of little help as many CTAs/Hedge Funds etc think otherwise, but the physical market in gold will eventually predominate.

A combination of a miserable NY gold performance and a stable yen clearly chilled Japanese TOCOM operators: the active contract fell 17 yen, and, while overall volume did rise 31% to the equivalent of 32,659 Comex lots, open interest fell by 2,151 Comex equivalent. World gold went out $1.95 below NY, which was probably not entirely due to Japanese selling; but reliable commentators speak of Trade houses buying TOCOM to sell loco London, which suggests the locals were pretty disgusted.( NY yesterday saw volume of 64,658 lots (far over the Comex estimate) with open interest rising 4,019 contracts: clearly suggesting new shorting.

Obviously gold yesterday did not just fall: it was pushed. Standard London observes:

"the market opened around $399 in New York. However heavy investment bank selling on the COMEX pushed gold down to $395.75 by the PM fixing and the Funds entered the market on the sell side …driving the price to a low of $391.20 offered. Good scaled in physical buying stemmed the losses and a bout of covering into the close by the intra-day shorts saw gold end the day with a pared loss of $5.90 at $393.40 bid."

In view of the physical market reaction, one doubts if shorting below $400 will turn out to be wise. Estimated volume today is again heavy at 55,000.

Today is extraordinary for the number of serious articles in the major media contemplating the possibility of massive Central Bank policy errors. An article in the WSJ questions recent BOJ activity. The Federal Reserve’s Golden Boy (so to speak) Ben Bernanke has a speech prominently publicized on the Fed’s website about gold in the ‘30s:

http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2004/200403…

The FT carries a piece on FNM and FMC by my old friend John Dizard:

"I don`t believe the GSEs will have to be rescued by the Fed in a crisis. The people who sold them protection will have to be bailed out … Mr. Greenspan and Mr Mankiw don`t think they`ll have to bail out Fannie and Freddie. They think they`ll have to bail out the half dozen largest swaps and derivatives dealers who are the big banks and investment dealers. In a rapidly rising interest rate environment, the "gamma", or the rate of the rate of increase in their hedging of their obligations to the GSEs, could, or, if you believe the chairman, will, require the Fed to act as the derivatives counterparty of last resort. The math tells him this could be seriously inflationary."

JB

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

It is astounding how quiet the US stock and bond markets are compared to the volatile dollar and commodity markets. Like two different worlds. The GATA camp has articulated the reasons why for many months now. It ought to be becoming more obvious to other market observers.

The US economic news continues to be very soft:

The Institute of Supply Management said its index of retail, financial services and other non-manufacturing industries fell to 60.8 last month from January`s 65.7.

http://www.ism.ws/ISMReport/NMROB032004.htm

From the March 3, 2004 ISM report:

"Significant reports of commodities in short supply or up or down in price in February indicate that steel and steel pipe are in short supply.

Price increases are reported for air freight; alloy products; aluminum and aluminum products; bearings; beef; building materials; carbon steel products; chemicals; conduit and fittings; copper; copper products including tubing and wire; corrugated; #2 diesel fuel; freight charges; freight fuel surcharges; fuel; galvanized coil; gasoline; #2 heating oil; HDPE; medical/surgical supplies; metals; natural gas; oil; oil products; paper; PC memory; plastic; plastic resins; plumbing supplies; poly bags; pork; poultry; PVC; PVC pipe; soy oil; stainless plate; stainless steel products; steel; steel tube; steel pipe; unleaded gasoline; and valves."

Cheese; computer equipment; pacemakers; and telecommunications services are reported down in price.

-END-

GATA’s Mike Bolser:

Hi Bill:
The Fed added $7.75 Billion in repurchase agreements today, March 3rd 2004. This action caused the repo pool to stay down and its 30-day moving average continued moving sideways. Compare the last three direction changes in the pool`s ma and we see that this time the turn has been rounded rather than sharp. This tells me that we are right on track for the DOW to keep moving sideways around 10,600. At this hour (11AM EST) the DOW is at 10,565.

While we see gold under attack around $393, silver continues to react as if there is a very large physical shortage driving the price upward. Steel copper and oil are break mode as well as silver so the Fed is losing the ability to credibly claim "no inflation". Indeed, the Fed is losing credibility as their plan of deception slowly disintegrates.

The DIVG (Dollar Index Value of Gold) 200-day moving average still tracks a beautiful, unbroken upward slope and that`s the metric I watch carefully. So far it has presaged all the important ebbs and flows of today`s Gold War.

The cartel WILL set a new DIVG defense level, they just haven`t done so yet. We will get a clear signal from the 200-day ma that will stand out over the day-to-day price changes. Today`s minor pull-back in price may be the beginning of a defense level or the Fed may continue to retreat...time will tell.

However, the outcome of selling gold as an official policy comes to an end when the gold runs out or when enough large contrary speculators become convinced that such an unsustainable strategy is actually in play and move to snap up the remainder.
Mike

From The King Report:

PPI Held Hostage, Day 13.
Soaring metals, oil and commodities have apparently convinced the BoC and the BoJ that it’s in their common interest to boost the $ to mitigate inflation pressure.

Normally the Bank of Japan keeps the $ unwarrantedly high to facilitate exports. When inflationary pressure gets uncomfortable, they let the $ fall to mitigate inflationary pressure. However, the recent colossal price increases in commodities greatly exceed the $ decline. China went on a global commodity buying binge in Q4 that manifested itself in January industrial production surging 19%. It’s our guess that the parabolic rises in commodity prices in January and February are largely the work of speculators and trading companies. This action has produced dangerous shortages. Because the declining $ is the basis of current global speculation, the central banks understand that to arrest the commodity speculation, the one-way $ trade/perception must be broken. They moved yesterday to do just that. The inflation genie is finally acknowledged, albeit furtively.

Tuesday’s action had little or nothing to due with job growth or the employment report, though that’s the fin media spin. The Bank of China aggressively bought $$ and sold yen, triggering a massive ‘barrier’ options at 110 yen. Goldman aggressively bought the euro, while Easy Al spoke to the NY Economists’ Club…Is Al in the ‘loop’. Probably not, because he is what he is and it’s an election year. Al says Japan is likely to stop selling yen. Last night Chief Cabinet Sec Fukuda refuted Al…Last night Fed Gov. Weimar Bernanke said "Inflation appears to be quite low" and is "under control." Deceiving yourself or us, Ben? Take China and lay the points; this is a gross mismatch of leadership… The JOC-ECRI says the smoothed annualized growth rate of US industrial prices is up 44.2% y/y. The smoothed average of 18 industrial materials is designed to minimize fluctuations. Care to comment, Ben?…

Our friend Matt notes a recent report on plant shutdowns by Joe Carson of Alliance Capital Management provides further insight as to why PMI and ISM surveys are inaccurate and bullish biased. "According to Joseph Carson, director of economic research at Alliance, 21,513 U.S. factories were shut down in 2002 and 2003, up sharply from 13,824 shutdowns during the previous four-year period." Mr. Carson notes these shutdowns are not fully reflected in the ISM index because when a plant closes the institute replaces it with another participant. Ergo the most negative data are omitted. Furthermore, as plants close their production flows to surviving facilities, which show increased orders/production. This fraudulently produces an increase in the ISM when it should be falling. The duplicity just doesn’t stop, does it?

-END-

But there is no inflation:

Bill;
Gotta tell ya, just got off the phone with my brother. As a part of his job he imports a fair amount of stuff from the U.S. (to Canada). He was going through a stack of freight invoices on his desk and he added up the fuel surcharges on his freight bills. He was livid. As you might have guessed, freight charges haven`t budged an inch (therefore no inflation) but fuel surcharges (not picked up in CPI) added 9% to his overall costs on a big stack of shipments. I have also read that fuel surcharges are pretty much the norm as a means for airlines to pass on increasing costs without showing an increase in posted fares. Yet we are all told by the wizard hiding behind the curtain that there is no inflation-what a cruel joke.
best
Rob

More and more thinking people are coming to the same/obvious inflation conclusion, a good read:

The Three Stooges of Inflation by Doug French

http://www.lewrockwell.com/french/french13.html

-END-

Houston’s Dan Norcini:

HI Bill:
Gold`s performance in light of the follow through dollar rally a second day in a row is quite stunning. It actually decoupled a bit from the dollar a refused to follow the Euro down for long. It literally flew off the 388 area. I tried getting some down there and could not get filled it went back up so fast! Talk about frustrating but a good frustrating!


The trip down there uncovered massive buying this time around. I was stunned with the sheer ferocity of the buying pressure down there.


The candlestick charts look pretty good. A nice hammer formation on the daily and especially on the hourly where the necessary follow thru confirmed the hammer. Ideally we need to see it hold this area now and refuse to collapse below 388. A slow drift even if it was a bit to the downside would be okay but not a rout below 388. Matter of fact, if we do get a drift in a sideways chop from here, we stand a very good chance of cementing the bottom. That will most certainly allow the oscillators to enter deep into the oversold area and begin to bottom. Some traders might want to see it test 388 one more time and bounce off of it before they get the courage to enter long positions again. A double touch and bounce would be simply marvelous.


It is a bit early to call the bottom for sure but I am of the opinion that the so-called "good news" of the upcoming jobs report is already priced into the dollar and by consequence the Euro as well. I have the strong feeling that the market may very well fade the report on Friday unless we get a monster number over 200,000 or so. A number in the vicinty of 125,000 will see the dollar fall in my opinion as all who bought in front of that report will book profits and head to the hills. In that case, gold should move up Friday and confirm the 388 as the bottom.


Silver did well considering the downdraft it caught from neighboring copper. Copper had a sizeable fund exodus today and the pressure on that metal was really hurting silver during the day. It tried valiantly to shrug off the pressure and even managed to close up but still well off the highs of the day.


All in all, a very important and interesting week is shaping up here.



More from Dan:

Enclosed and attached is a chart of Euro Silver for the Cafe members.


Euro-Silver Chart

Notice that on yesterday`s spike Silver broke thru horizontal resistance going back to January 2002. Today`s setback brought us back down to the breakout level. In the process of climbing thus far, silver has decisively bettered two different downtrend lines one of which has held since October 2000.


What is most impressive about silver is that in all three of the major currency terms; Dollar, Euro and Yen, the charts are powerfully bullish unlike gold which to date has only looked decent in Dollar terms. Perhaps that explains silver`s strength in comparison to gold of late. The simple truth is that on days when the Dollar is rallying and most of the metals seem to be selling off as a result, Silver is simply not dropping as much in percentage terms as the Euro and Yen are going down. The result is that it continues to climb the charts in terms of these currencies.


I will be most anxious to see this Friday`s close to see how it does for the week and whether or not it can hold this recent breakout. I did not send the Yen chart for fear of taxing your web guy but it is also amazingly bullish.
Best regards,
Dan

[e-mail]


Derek VanArstdalen from San Antonio:

Hi Bill,
A quick update on the South African Rand. Here`s the latest chart:





Within the last two weeks, we`ve had two or three more tests of the red downtrend line, all of which failed to penetrate its resistance. The internals, too, are indicating weakness as shown by the downtrending blue lines. All of this seems to be forecasting a weakening of the Rand in the weeks and months ahead. And no law prevents the Rand from losing steam even as the dollar declines.

After the strong 2-year runup of the Rand, it now appears to be heading for a correction. If the green uptrend line is penetrated to the downside, then we can probably look for the Rand to fall to its 50% correction point, which would take it to about .11 on the chart. That translates to roughly 9 Rand to the dollar at current
exchange rates. As of this morning, the ratio is about 6.85 Rand to the dollar, so the difference would be pretty drastic. This decline would make the South African mining companies profitable by multiples of their current levels, so we can imagine what that will do to the value of their stocks, assuming their government doesn`t do anything stupid (er, that is to say, anything beyond the stupidity it`s already demonstrated).

Next, let`s have a look at the price of gold in Rand:




This pattern shows a symmetrical triangle. Circled in green are two attempts over the past year and a half or so to break up and out of the formation, but each time the price of gold in Rand has turned back down. The pattern will be resolved one way or the other within the next several months. My guess is that those two breakout attempts will prove prophetic and that gold will then be growing more expensive for holders of the Rand, just as it has for holders of U.S. dollars. The measured move for this chart indicates a huge potential markup in gold`s Rand-per-ounce price, perhaps as much as 1750 Rand per ounce! From current levels of around 2700, that would blast the price of an ounce of gold in Rand to somewhere in the 4400 neighborhood. That`s a pretty rich neighborhood. It would make stocks
such as DROOY, GFI and AFKDY seem like giveaways at their present levels.

And speaking of DROOY, here`s an updated chart on "the Roodeport Rocket," which is still sitting on the launchpad taking on fuel due to the Rand situation described above:





The huge "bull flag" formation (in red and blue) augurs big things for the months ahead, I would think. The internals (circled in green) are both in oversold territory. If the Rand weakens, as I expect it will in the coming months, it`ll be "look out above!" for Durban and the other South Africans.

I would remind your subscribers of the sage advice of J. Paul Getty:

"If you want to get rich, buy when everyone else is selling and then hold until everyone else is buying."

This philosophy is powerfully simple, but I`m always amazed at how difficult it is to practice. The natural inclination is to do just the opposite and buy or sell with the crowd. It`s tough as hell to make yourself buy something that everyone else is shunning. The mind figures, "If no one`s interested in this thing, then it must be worthless." That`s when the true contrarian steps in and loads up the truck. But it ain`t easy. It takes what my Mexican friends call "huevos." And they`re not talking about eggs...
Derek

More silver input from Europe:

dear bill
i informed you on february 2 that the Bank fuer Tirol und Vorarllberg, for the region Innsbruck, Austria, could not deliver me wanting to purchase 5 or 10 kg in silverbars.
today, march 3, i asked for it again. the answer was the same: no silver available. they said they would ask there colleague-bank for the region Vienna.
i`ll keep you informed.
sincerely,
P

J-Pacific Gold has been a GATA supporter for many years and we have appreciated their support when it counted. Nick Ferris, their CEO, put on the following news release: JIPANGU JOINT VENTURES J-PACIFIC GOLD PROPERTIES AGGRESSIVE EXPLORATION PLANNED FOR NEVADA’S CORTEZ DISTRICT

the link to the release:

http://www.jpgold.com/PDF/2004/03-Mar-02.pdf

My friend Nick has built a solid relationship with Japanese financial powerhouse, Jipangu. Together they are planning to explore for gold in the Cortex District, which has seen numerous discoveries over the past year. As a result of this new arrangement, J-Pacific maintains control as operator, even if a production decision is made, and puts both J-Pacific/Jipangu in a strong bargaining position if a discovery is made.

The gold shares bounced back from an early drubbing to close higher. The XAU gained a modest .09 to 97.80, while the HUI gained 1.84 to 222.55. The HUI looks like it is putting in a monstrous rounded bottom:

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?s…

Gold, silver and the shares remain THE historic investment opportunity of a lifetime.

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

MIDAS

Appendix

Dear Mr. Murphy,

An observation.

The recent near 20-year breakout in the CRB index is more important than is being reported.

It`s significance indicates that the market is coming into its `1st Sweet Spot`, ...

the sweet spot of substantial appreciation.

In 1972, the CRB broke out above 120.

This was a 15-year breakout and signaled the beginning of the runaway commodity bull market.

18 months later, the CRB appreciated almost 100%, with many commodities individually appreciating more than this.

This was the `1st Sweet Spot` of the 1970`s bull market.

With the recent near 20-year breakout, history is expected to repeat itself.

20-year breakouts do not happen by accident, nor are they false breakouts.

And this breakout has occurred with the heavy hand of intervention in multiple markets.

Also, has anyone commented on the frequency of gold transactions

being higher than the Euro or Yen.

The number of gold transactions, on a tic by tic basis, is substantially higher than either Yen of the Euro.

I believe this is an additional indication of intervention,

considering the size differental and the number of players in the Yen or Euro markets vs the gold market.

Hope this is helpful.
Thanks,
Raymond Green

Many thanks for your site.

I had been aware of strange things occurring in the gold market since 1996, when the Jan/Feb 1996 breakout fizzled in spite of strong fundamentals.

I happened to be in Australia at the time and I recall the breakout gave new hope to the natural resource business climate.

It wasn`t until May 2001, after gold`s run-up to almost $300 and subsequent slam,

that I saw and unfortunately experienced the brutal heavy handedness of intervention.

I had carefully studied and analyzed the long-term cycles, fundamentals and price trends,

to deduce that the bottom in gold was in place in Mar/Apr 2001, and that the greatest of all gold bull markets was going to commence.

Unfortunately, I was leveraged and more naive than I thought, even though I have substantial, and sometimes very successful, trading experience.

After the May 2001 gold market slam, my research intensified and realized what was happening and what had happened since 1996.

For a couple of years, after my careful analysis and patience showed that it was time to buy gold, I would buy only to have the signals negated time and time again.

The failure rate was quite remarkable.

I began to mumble randomly.

Then in summer 2003,

I saw that there was a good bid to the gold market after the John Snow sell-off.

It was then that I read a piece where this bidder was given a name, `The Stalker`, by LeMetropole Cafe. I immediately became a subscriber.

From 2001-2003, I would talk about what was occurring to people and the long-term damage to the markets, the economy, the country and civilization.

But they would look at my like I was crazy.

Although there is a madness to it when you see structures of civilization being destroyed,

I knew I wasn`t crazy.

I knew we were in the middle of history, the history of the greatest fraud ever.

Your web sight has helped me maintain my mental health.

I no longer mumble nearly as much as I had previously.

I know that I, as well as you, will be vindicated someday.

That we are one of the few, if not the only ones, holding the single light of truth in a very dark period of civilization.

But for now I take comfort in the fact that I am not alone.

Did George Orwell go through this madness?

Thank you again for your web site,

All the best,
Yours truly,
Raymond Green.

Mr. Murphy, I have been a subscriber to "LeMetropole Cafe" for about two years now and I enjoy reading your column. In my mind you are the cheerleader of gold. Just keep on doing this as I need a lift at the end of the day.

I read your last article on copper pennies on Midas and I may think you would find the following information interesting. I`m a Canadian and I noticed last year that Canadian pennies now get attracted to magnets. I tested all pennies prior to 2003 and I noticed that only 2003 pennies seem to be ferromagnetic. I guess copper has surpassed other base metals in value to a degree that they would be worth more then what a pennies is worth.

I`m now hoarding pennies minted prior to 2003 and up until this point in time I found them more of a nuisance then anything else.

If you are wondering about the content of copper in the US penny then just see if it attracted to a magnet. When the change in metals that make up a penny happens then you will know.

Just passing along some added info.
Glenn Hick

[Magor]

In den allgemeinen Ruf nach Thai möchte ich auch einstimmen:
So lange kann selbst in Thailand eine Serverstörung nicht anhalten ...
Komm an die Arbeit Junge, Urlaub machen kannst Du später, jetzt beginnt die Zeit, wo das abheben beginnt! Das wirst Du doch hier nicht verpassen wollen, und wir nicht Deine dazugehörigen Info´s!!!

Weil ich das reinstellen von doc´s mit Originalrahmen usw. auch nicht kann, hier eine Meldung von MacMin, die neben der Ernennung von Dennis O´Neill zum Managing Director, hier bekanntgeben, daß in Erwartung von das ganze Jahr über steigenden Silberkursen,
die Produktion bzw. Minentätigkeit nun langsam aufnehmen wollen:


4th March 2004
Company Announcements Office



MACMIN ANTICIPATES CONTINUED SILVER PRICE INCREASES BY
CONSTRUCTION OF SILVER MINING & PROCESSING FACILITY

Bob McNeil, Executive Chairman, today announces that the Macmin Board has decided to proceed
with construction and commissioning of a silver processing plant and related infrastructure at the
Texas Silver Project in SE Queensland Australia. Financing details will be announced in the near
future.

As a result of recent increases in the silver price, and as the Board considers that silver prices will
continue to rise over the next year,
the Board concluded that it is now opportune to prepare for silver


commissioning by March 2005. This process can be shortened if warranted by silver prices.

As part of processing commissioning, it is intended to trial various heaps and dumps of ore of up to
200,000 tonnes, using among other things, innovative blasting patterns to facilitate fracturing of the
ore which could lead to improved recoveries.

Silver/gold production rate will be determined in 2005, dependent on the silver price prevailing at the
time; technical results from the commissioning process; and the results of the ongoing resource
definition drilling. Initial production (may be increased in the future) is likely to be between two and
three million ozs of silver equivalent.

The Board has also today agreed on a major increase in exploration expenditure at the Texas Silver
Project for the remainder of 2004. Budgeted expenditure is of the order of $2.4 million. Further
details will be released in the near future.

R.D. McNeil
CHAIRMAN


Der Kurs von MacMin ist auf diese Meldung hin heute in Sydney von 19.5 auf 21 AUD gestiegen.

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=MMN&E=ASX&N=158821
http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=MMN&E=ASX&N=158822

Grüße
Magor

[clonecrash]

Nur mal so nebenbei - bei dem hier hab ich gekauft, sehr
zuverlässig , aber ist im Moment Leergekauft


http://www.silber999.de/

[Koenigstreuer]

Bei den Münchnern gibts noch was
www.proaurum.de

[HighFidelity]

is thai da drüben wieder barren kaufen?


HiFi

[Spieler0815]

@clonecrash
Was für Münzen (oder Barren ?) hast Du denn bei ihm gekauft ? Und vor allem zu was für Einzelkursen ?
Gruß vom Spieler

[clonecrash]

#8841 von Spieler0815

Ich habe hier von gekauft, zu dem Preis der dort steht
1-oz-Maple Leaf (Jahrgang 2004 - eingeschweißt.

Ich warte das er wieder Barren hat hier www.proaurum.de sind Münzen zu teuer und Barren auch.

mfg

[superman6]

Kurz vor neuem Jahrestopstand.

Cambrian Mining und Investika
beide werden dieses Jahr super laufen.

ISIN GB0031630527
Bezeichnung CAMBRIAN MIN ORD 20P
Börse London Domestic Trades
Datum/Zeit 04.03.04/16:54:37
Letzter Kurs 64,50 O
Volumen/Trade 2.500
Volumen/Tag 74.131

[ulfur]

Das Ende des 100jährigen Bärenmarktes

von Steve Sjuggerud

"Um die ungefähr 20 Millionen Menschen pro Jahr, die in die Städte wandern, unterzubringen, müssen die Chinesen effektiv jeden Monat eine Stadt wie Houston bauen ..."

- Ed Yardeni von Prudential Securities am 21. Januar 2004

John Neu ist mit Müll unglaublich reich geworden. Er hat letztes Jahr 2 Millionen Tonnen Müll nach China verkauft ...

Nicht weit weg von der Freiheitsstatue sammelt er alte Toaster, alte Autos, alles mögliche. Nun, nicht wirklich alles. Aber alles, das aus Metall ist.

John Neu besorgte sich auch den ganzen Metall-Müll vom World Trade Center. Das waren 300.000 Tonnen ... die er um die ganze Welt verschiffte. Mehr als ein Drittel dieses Metalls schickt er nach China ... vor 5 Jahren hatte er da noch gar nichts hingeschickt.

Zu Beginn wollte China den amerikanischen Müll nicht. Aber Chinas Wirtschaft wächst so schnell, dass China mittlerweile nimmt, was es kriegen kann. China hat John Neu zu einem glücklichen Mann gemacht ... als China Ende 2001 der WTO beitrat, da kostete eine Tonne Metall-Müll 57 Dollar. Der Preis hatte sich bis Ende 2003 auf 127 Dollar mehr als verdoppelt. Und vor kurzem stieg er auf 150 Dollar.

Insgesamt gesehen sind die 2 Millionen Tonnen von John Neu natürlich "Peanuts". Chinas Appetit auf Stahl ist derzeit unersättlich. China braucht Stahl. Und es braucht auch andere Rohstoffe.

Ehrlich gesagt: Ich denke, Rohstoffe sollten ein fantastischer Platz sein, wenn Sie für den Rest des Jahrzehnts Geld anlegen wollen. Die Renditen in diesem Sektor sollten die Renditen von Aktien und Anleihen in den nächsten 5 Jahren übertreffen. Das war in den 1970ern der Fall, wie ich Ihnen gleich zeige, und es wird wieder passieren:

Rohstoffe schlagen Aktien jährlicher prozentualer Gewinn, 1970–1980

Anlageklasse, durchschnittlicher jährlicher Gewinn

Öl 34,7 % Gold 31,6 % Silber 23,7 % Ackerland 14 % Immobilien 10,2 % Inflation 7,7 % Aktienkurse 3,6 %

Was mir an den Rohstoffen besonders gefällt, ist die Tatsache, dass niemand in Rohstoffe investiert ... noch nicht. Niemand hat Rohstoffe bzw. Rohstoff-Zertifikate in seinem Depot. In Deutschland gibt es nur wenige Ansätze, und kaum jemand weiß, wie man überhaupt in Rohstoffe investieren kann. Der Börsenbrief "Optionsschein-Profits" ist da schon einen Schritt weiter, er handelt bereits erfolgreich mit Rohstoff-Zertifikaten. Das ist jedoch noch die große Ausnahme. Aber gerade die Tatsache, dass sowohl in den USA als auch in Deutschland noch kaum Privatanleger wissen, um was es hier eigentlich geht, gefällt mir. Denn ohne die Massen lässt sich am besten Geld verdienen!

Nachdem die Rohstoffpreise (gemessen am CRB-Index) Ende 2001 ihren Boden erreicht hatten, stiegen sie um 40 %. Aber keine Bange, damit haben Sie noch nicht alles verpasst ... denn die Rohstoffpreise sind langfristig gesehen so billig, wie sie es in den letzten 100 Jahren niemals waren.

Die Nachfrage ist da, aber es gibt nicht genug Angebot. Das ist die perfekte Kombination, die in den kommenden Jahren für steigende Rohstoffpreise sorgen wird. Und zwar solange, bis das Angebot wieder zur Nachfrage aufschließen kann.

Aber woher kommt diese neue, zusätzliche Nachfrage? Die Antwort ist einfach, wie auch John Neu mit seinem Schrottmüll entdecken konnte: Aus China!

China ist auch hier wieder DAS heiße Thema. Aber Vorsicht: Das bedeutet nicht, dass Sie jetzt bedenkenlos alle chinesischen Aktien kaufen sollten.

Die an der Nasdaq gelisteten chinesischen Unternehmen sind überbewertet. Nehmen wir die jüngste chinesische Neuemission, die an die New Yorker Börse kam: China Life. Das ist eine Versicherungsgesellschaft. Und der chinesische Finanzsektor ist als korrupt bekannt. Ich lachte laut, als ich 3 Monate nach dem Listing von China Life hörte, dass die Muttergesellschaft wegen Bilanzbetrugs im Volumen von 650 Millionen Dollar angeklagt wurde.

Festzuhalten bleibt: Im Moment boomt China. Und der chinesische Appetit auf Rohstoffe bleibt unersättlich. Aber ich würde nicht auf China-Aktien wie China Life setzen, denn von diesen Unternehmen werden viele von der Bildfläche verschwinden.

Stattdessen würde ich über Rohstoffe auf China setzen. Denn die profitieren vom Aufstieg Chinas in der Form steigender Preise. Und es gibt inzwischen auch am deutschen Markt entsprechende Rohstoff-Zertifikate.

investor-verlag

[superman6]

an thai guru

vielleicht kannst du es ja lesen.

Es geht um die von dir empfohlenen AGD-Mining.

Hältst du es für möglich, dass diese von
Cambrian Mining irgendwie übernommen werden?
Vielleicht das gleiche Schicksal wie bei
Deepgreen Minerals?

[einmalpleitereicht]

hier der GATA Bericht von heute.

Bin ab morgen früh bis Sonntag auf der Invest in Stuttgart. Wenn Morgen Abend also nix GATA-Bericht kommt - keine Sorge bin nicht von der Gold-Mafia gekillt worden.

werds dann halt nachliefern

es grüsst euch schön








March 4 - Gold $392.40 up 10 cents - Silver $6.74 up 2 cents

Quietly, Silver Makes Third Highest Close In 7 Years

Champions keep playing until they get it right... Billie Jean King
(Wimbledon standout, winning women`s singles 6 times, doubles 10 times and mixed doubles four times. In addition to the Wimbledon wins, she also racked up 13 U.S. Open victories and was the first female athlete to earn more than $100,000 in a year.)

GO GATA!!!!

A very quiet trading session all the way around. The investment world is waiting for tomorrow’s US job report. Surely, this report will affect early trading, but what will it really mean? How can anyone trust the number the government puts out anyway?

Very little to say about gold except that after a beating like it just took, bullion never roars right back up. You have heard that before from me. Still, when you look at what is going on out there in the world, what a great buy at these levels. Months from now gold should be SUBSTANTIALLY higher.

The silver intrigue continues to build. Twice over the past 24 hours silver rallied over $6.80, only to fall back for the fifth time. Maybe the sixth time will be the charm? Meanwhile, as reported in the MIDAS bulletin, Goldman Sachs bought two to three thousand April $7.50 silver calls after buying 1300 March silver yesterday against 1300 May sales, done on a spread basis.

What does that mean I have been asked? You never know for sure unless you are doing the order and have been told why. The GS order could be for a customer, or for the firm. However, we do know for someone to buy a call that is 75 cents out of the money with only three weeks until expiration, the person is concerned about silver fireworks. GS could be short and wants protection, or might suspect silver could go berserk for the reasons brought to your attention these past months. The fact that this option order follows their buying the nearby contract during the delivery period suggests they might be concerned about a near-term squeeze. If the Comex warehouse stocks begin to disappear, it could cause some panic among the shorts and the March contract could go into backwardization and trade at a substantial premium to May. We shall have to see.

For those new to trading, if silver goes above $7.50 by March 25th, the owners of the April calls will go into the money. A silver contract is 5,000 ounces. For every penny above $7.50, the call holder makes $50 per contract. If silver were to spike to $8 within three weeks, it would result in a $2500 gain for the owner. At the moment, these calls are trading between 80 cents and $1. This is a real punt of a play, but you never know with silver. As oft-said in MIDAS, silver could rally $1 in a day like it was nothing. Used to happen somewhat frequently years ago.

Another good sign is that Deutsche Bank was the BIG STOPPER again of the March silver deliveries. There were 1243 issued and 584 were taken by DB. Again, we don’t know for sure what they are doing, but this fits in perfectly with the information brought to your attention at the beginning of the year that well-heeled European Funds are going to the Comex to obtain physical silver because they could not find it elsewhere.

At the moment the Comex stocks aren’t going declining, but that is not important yet because these Europeans could be storing it in the Comex warehouses. However, one day they might just ship it out and we will see big drawdowns. If that occurs, the shorts could begin to panic because other buyers could do the same and all of a sudden there would be no silver stocks left to cover the requirements of the shorts. This is what might be concerning Goldman Sachs. The spreads didn’t narrow today (March went up the same as May), but if we do go into backwardization (March trading over May) lookout above.

There is NO serious indications of any kind of squeeze yet of the March contract, however, getting back to the recent silver trading by Goldman Sachs. If someone did take a run at the March contract, it could go nuts, which MIGHT be why GS bought all those silver calls above the market with only three weeks left for them to go into the money.

Silver guru David Morgan tells me there is a contingent on the silver floor that are adamant silver will not stay above $6.80 no matter what happens. This is a big reason why silver keeps selling off after breaching that level to the upside and a good thing to know. When silver goes $7 bid, a loud "uh-oh" will be heard all over the Comex.

I am standing for March delivery. However, the deliveries at my firm have only advanced to December. Anecdotal, but a bullish sign.

Was informed today of another Café member taking delivery. This one bought 25 March contracts TODAY and will pay cash for them all. Each contract is worth about $34,000. It’s not "I Want My Maypo" these days, it’s I WANT MY SILVER!

The gold open interest is 113,537 contracts, while silver’s s 113,537. There are still 2025 March contracts open, a number of which are sought by Café members.

While we can’t see any fire on the horizon, smoke is starting to billow as far silver is concerned. The pieces of the puzzle are beginning to fit. Whether it all comes together and we get some silver fireworks in the weeks to come, remains to be seen.

March silver
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SV/34

Very quietly silver closed at its third highest level in 7 years and there is nary a peep out there over it. Even on the Comex floor, there isn’t that much enthusiasm. What a great set up!



The John Brimelow Report

Shorts vulnerable? Refco goes long

Thursday, March 04, 2004


Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $ 7.01, PM $6.34, with world gold at $392 and $393.85. Ample for legal imports. World gold was quite buoyant during the Indian business day, trading in a range some $4 higher than India saw yesterday, and cresting just above $395 around 4 am NY time. The rupee, on the other hand, was weak, closing at a 5 week low with Central Bank action suspected.

With the yen static (it strengthened after the Japanese close) and platinum far more entertaining, TOCOM was again bored with gold. Volume fell again, down 46% to the equivalent of only 17,524 Comex lots. The active contract was up 10 yen, and world gold was $1.35 above NY’s close at the end, at $393.75, but open interest slipped the equivalent of 571 Comex lots. It does not appear TOCOM anticipates a sustained slide in the yen yet. (NY traded 58,522 contracts yesterday: open interest fell 2,175 lots.)

Wednesday’s 400,000 oz increase in Comex open interest on a down day, and the subsequent trading has caused several observers to suspect a build- up in short interest. UBS observes:

"Strong dollar attracts Gold short-players. While $388 held well, considering the built up pressure… Shorts will worry over $398 and longs under $385… Yesterday Gold was mainly driven by rumored stops around $388. The market positioned itself short…With the Euro breaking 1.21…the market headed lower again aiming the rumored stops. The drop fell just short again of that magic $388 level…and fresh buying brought the market back up 1.5 dollars."

Refco Research, noting;

"Some weak shorts have likely entered the market."

has summoned the courage to try the long side again:

"In a risky trade given the chart, we would buy 1 April gold at market. Risk close under 388. Expect 408."

(Gold’s friends will be relieved to see that this time RR did not employ one of their notoriously magnetic intraday stop loss orders!)

JB

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The DOG climbed back to 2055, up 22, while the DOW drifted lower to 10,588, down 5.

Oil shot right back up to $36.64 per barrel and the CRB recovered from its drubbing the past two days to close at 272.65, up 1.21.

GATA’s Mike Bolser:

Hi Bill:
The Fed added $15.03 Billion in Open Market Operations today March 4th 2004 consisting of, $14.25 Billion in temporary repurchase agreements and $.779 Billion in permanent OMO`s. This action kept the repo pool fairly low at $28.75 and keeps the brakes on the DOW. Indeed, the unusual bottoming pattern in the repo 30-day moving average (red trace) continues to appear as if the Fed may even drive the repo pool further down, although it is too early to call. The bottoming pattern lacks the sharp "V" bottom of recent turnarounds and signals that something is a bit different.

New web site for charts

Today, I`m releasing a new web site location that will carry public daily posts of four of my interventional analysis charts: The DIVG/EIVG, DIVG 200-day ma, Changes currencies and gold and Repurchase Agreements and the DOW. These familiar charts can now be viewed at any time (they are updated daily except Monday) by visiting:

http://www.pbase.com/gmbolser/interventional_analysis


Definitions:

1. The Dollar & Euro Index Value of Gold (DIVG-EIVG).

This chart represents the respective currency adjusted value of gold. It is the absolute value of gold in each currency. For example, even though gold priced in Euros is down, its value is significantly up compared with the dollar because the dollar has fallen and the Euro has gone up.

2. The DIVG 200-day moving average

This chart highlights DIVG moving averages and reveals that the level DIVG=323 was defended before moving higher (yellow trace).

3. Changes currencies and gold charts the relative currency changes since the Euro and Dollar were last at parity on Dec 5th 2002. The O`Neill Period is the calendar interval after the former Treasury Secretary departed office and his replacement took office.

4. Repurchase Agreements and the DOW shows the daily aggregate size of the pool of un ex (green trace). Also, the permanent open market operations (orange spheres) are shown to be very influential on the DOW (note the "Iraq War Rally"), though the gross amount of each is much lower than temporary repos.

These Federal open market funds can be funneled into the small DOW futures market to support the far larger DOW in an artificial manner.

It is my hope that these charts will aid readers in achieving a more complete understanding of the large, inappropriate influence that government intervention plays in today`s financial markets.
Mike

Chuck checks in:

So far, so good for the goldies. The shares continue to outshine the metal and the metal is doing well compared to the strength of the dollar. This is how the gold market should behave and we should be anticipating. It has the feel of a little longer bottoming process, but I am confident that the majority of the pain and impatience is over. In spite of the confidence that is exuded over the economy and the stock market, pockets of doubt are increasing. A break through some support levels could be the knell of the long awaited break. I would like to see the gold shares start to move up more smartly from here as this process unfolds. Chuck

From The King Report:

The State of NY Labor Department reports: NY State unemployment rose to 7.2% in January from Dec.’s 6.2%. It was 7% in Jan ’03; NY city unemployment rose to 8.9% in January from 8% in December; 19,500 jobs were lost. Now recall that the NY PMI showed the most brisk economy in over 10 years. The biggest job losses appeared in government jobs (8700) and financial services (5500). Long Island unemployment rate increased to 4.8% from Dec.’s 4.1%. The rate was 4.5% in January 2003. And ’03 was the year of massive fiscal and monetary stimulus! Manufacturing lost 2900 jobs and the information industry lost 1,700 jobs, a 5.7 percent drop. In accordance with the US overall trend, job growth was in low-paying areas. Job growth: Retailing 2k, finance and insurance 2.1k (low-paying Wall St support) and education and health services 5,000. The figures are NOT seasonally adjusted.
http://64.106.160.140:8080/lmi/laus.html

The California Department of Labor says CA unemployment rose to 6.7% in Jan from Dec.’s 6.2%. http://www.calmis.ca.gov/file/lfmonth/cal$pr.txt

"Ohio`s unemployment rate was 6.2 percent in January, unchanged from the revised December figure, according to data released this morning by the Ohio Department of Job and Family Services…The January unemployment rate for Ohio was up from 6.0 percent in January 2003…The U.S. unemployment rate was 5.6 percent in January, down from 5.7 percent in December." http://jfs.ohio.gov/releases/unemp/UnempPressRelease.htm

Georgia’s unemployment rate increased to 4.1% in Jan from 4% in Dec. It was 4.7% in Jan ’03. Georgia has a heavy military presence and benefited from the war build up. Jan unemployment claims rose to 70, 271 from Dec’s 59,206. http://www.dol.state.ga.us/pdf/pr/u0104georiga.pdf

New Jersey unemployment was 5.5% in Jan; 5.6% in Dec and 6% in Jan ’03. Jersey, benefiting from the NY exodus gained 56k y/y from Jan ’03 to Jan ’04. Manufacturing lost 10k, services gained 31,300, education & healthcare produced 12k jobs, leisure & hospitality contributed 10k and government 14,100. http://www.wnjpin.net/OneStopCareerCenter/LaborMarketInforma…

As we reported on Monday, "The State of Illinois reports the State unemployment rate fell to 6.2% in Dec due to increased hiring in leisure & hospitality jobs (10,400) and health service jobs (9k). Manufacturing lost 20,600 jobs." Illinois, Texas, Florida and Pennsylvania don’t have January ’04 data available…Please notice that most unemployment rates of the largest states far exceed the BLS national number of 5.6%. When Bush I was prez, we recall a Barron’s feature that noted individual state employment data was far softer than BLS national data – the numbers didn’t compute.

-END-

Houston’s Dan Norcini onthe signal that we are watching to tell us when a possible squeeze will commence in earnest.

Hi Bill:
The March Silver going premium to May is very significant.

I sent the following out to a friend explaining a market going into contango. Might be of some help to Cafe members if you think you could use it.


"The guy is more than likely playing a spread trade anticipating a forward squeeze on March that allows it to gain rapidly on the May. It is a safe trade if you are a hedger. I trade quite a few spreads in commodities and pay close attention to spread relationships since the spreaders are the most knowledgable guys in the market. They know the physical market quite well and are keenly in tune with the supply/demand factors of that particular market. They have to be right since they will not survive for long if they are not.


Whenever a market goes into a near term shortage in the futures, it develops what we refer to as an inverted market. Some call it contango. What happens is that the front month or delivery month contract trades at a higher price than the next month and several of the months from there on back. Now in futures markets, a normal market consists of carrying charges which include storage costs, insurance and interest rate charges that are incorporated into the commodity. Those costs are added in to the underlying commodity and that is the reason that the back months are normally trading at a higher price than the front month.


However, if the market needs a commodity right away, it has to provide a price incentive for the owners of that product to sell it RIGHT AWAY instead of holding it for a few months. It does that by bidding up the price of the front month contract. As it rises it becomes more profitable for owners of silver, in our case, to sell their silver now rather than wait until May or July for example.


So what we will have to watch is to see if March silver can trade over and above May Silver. Today it did. March is now premium to May. That is a very reliable occurence that something is up. What we do need to see happen however is for March to not only maintain this premium to May but also to widen the spread out. If it continues to widen, the short squeeze is for real. May will benefit as well. Make no mistake about it. But March will outperform the May IF the longs are going to stand for delivery in size."

As a side note Bill between you and me - keep your eye on Rough Rice that trades on the CBOT. Years ago I made some decent money trading it when Japan suddenly turned a buyer of rice which was really unusual. Last night I was doing some market research and noticed that China is now snooping around the world rice market. Seems like they are short of the stuff as well. That caused the Thai government and the Vietnam government some problems since rice trade is very delicately balanced. China`s entrance as a net importer could be very significant. Rough Rice closed limit up today and has a pool of unfilled contracts. I was a bit hesitant to pull the trigger on the open this morning since Rice got caught in the downdraft by the beans yesterday and posted a bearish reversal on the charts. I thought we might have some follow through on that and if the beans got sucked down again, rice could tumble fairly hard. When it did not, I bought it. So far so good. It is a thinly traded market but has the potential to really put on some fireworks as Chinese demand has pushed copper and beans and steel and nickel much higher than anyone could originally conceive. Might be possible here as well. Don`t know but am going to attempt to ride it for what it is worth. Also, another rumor hit the pit today that Iraw is in the market for a very sizeable rice purchase.

Will have to see how it goes. Because it is thin, it tends to be volatile like silver and the bellies. But has lots of profit potential as well. Limit move is .50 or $1000.00. Contract size is 200,000 pounds. A .10 move is worth $200.00
Dan

But, there is no inflation:

This dovetails nicely with a piece I sent you yesterday. Story at: http://business-times.asia1.com.sg/story/0,4567,109701,00.ht…

".................At ports in India, ships must queue for a month to pick up iron ore cargoes en route to China, said Harash Channa, executive vice-president of operations at the ship chartering unit of Hong Kong commodities trader Noble Group. `It`s clearly creating a chain reaction,` he said.

Industry insiders say up to 25 per cent of the world`s bulk shipping capacity is now tied up in port queues. The expense of such delays is massive. A 120,000-200,000 tonne `capesize` carrier leases for up to US$100,000 per day, so a month-long delay adds US$3 million to the cost of each shipment. The bottleneck is exacerbating already high prices for commodities such as steel, soybeans and oil, and triggered record high bulk freight rates for shipping lines and a construction backlog at the world`s shipyards.

Dominique Lovichi, vice-president for Asia at France`s CMA-CGM, the world`s fifth-largest container liner..........."

Seems things (inflation) are going to get worse before they get better.
best
Rob

Fast-rising Gas Prices Set Records in 2 States
(USA TODAY) - Gasoline prices set statewide records Tuesday in Nevada and West Virginia,

http://news.yahoo.com/fc?tmpl=fc&cid=34&in=business&cat=oil_…

Yes, I live in West Virginia, says a fellow Café member.

Hi Bill,
Fantastic job you`re doing.
Here are some useful charts FYI - worth a thousand words as to why things are going to blow. The demand (deficit) will sky rocket as investors turn to hard assets in this time red hot printing presses.
Thought that these might really drive the point home for the newly initiated.
Please pass them on if you see fit.
Dave.







Gold demand news:

China May Scrap 5% Tax on Gold Jewelry, China Daily Reports
2004-03-03 19:44 (New York)


By Rob Delaney
March 4 (Bloomberg) -- China may scrap its 5 percent consumption tax on gold jewelry to raise demand and help boost profits among processors of the metal, the China Daily reported, citing a China Gold Association official.


China`s State Administration of Taxation recommended to the State Council, the country`s highest governing body, that the tax be scrapped because gold exporters no longer benefit from subsidies and export rebates that China had to abolish after it joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, the report cited Xu Shouxin, the gold association`s vice-secretary general, as saying.


China lowered the gold jewelry consumption tax to 5 percent from 10 percent in 1994, when it started to open the market. The government gave up its control on fixing gold prices when it opened the Shanghai Gold Exchange in 2002.


China`s gold output last year rose 5.7 percent to 200.6 metric tons, the association said in a report on its Web site last month.

-END-

For a change the gold shares did not sell off late in the day. They actually bumped up a bit on the close. The HUI continues to complete a massive rounded bottom. Today it rose 3.23 to 225.78. The XAU gained 1.33 to 225.78.

Same line from me:

Gold, silver and the shares remain THE historic investment opportunity of a lifetime!

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

MIDAS

Appendix

Hi Bill,
I read Bernanke`s speech that JB alluded to in today`s Midas. It seems to me that there is something very wrong and narrow in his thinking. To state that erroneous monetary policy by the Fed is what the Great Depression was all about is arrogant and extraordinarily self serving.

The 20`s are a clear example of Bill Bonner`s view that "Delusions have Consequences" as they do today. Human nature is what it is and excess and corruption due to the practice of thinking you can have something for nothing WILL have consequences.

My father tried to convince me in a subtle way as I grew up to ALWAYS be very leery of" leaders" who would tell you they are here to help you because they know what`s best for you. Bernanke seems to optimize this type of "leader".Well.,to him I would say no thank you for the "help".

John Embry recently appeared on ROBTV{Feb. 18} here in Canada in a debate on the merits of Gold as protection in these times. The person who John was debating stated that Bernanke was one of his heroes{I`m not kidding} and that the Fed was in complete control of the strength of the US dollar and we would Never see Gold at 500US in his or his grand-

children`s lifetime. Overall John was very gracious to this fellow, but he snapped just a touch at this guy`s remarks re: Bernanke.I n a word, he called Bernanke {again, I`m not kidding}an "idiot". The debate was a lot of fun to watch. John sure seems like one tough customer and I am very comfortable having a substantial investment in his fund at Sprott Asset Management. GATA`s purpose is mainly about freedom.

Thanks, Bill, for your efforts.
Sincerely,
Greg P.

Bill;

The following quotes are from a story in the Chinese financial news: Greenspan: Free floatation of the yuan could be risky

at: http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/200403/04/eng20040304_1364…

I find it interesting that the wizard-easy Al has `concerns` about China allowing the Yuan to float, yet he is on the record advocating free trade (the pillage of American jobs). Should we assume that `free trade` which benefits all is really a one way street-jobs going thatta way and nothin back? Ever wonder if easy Al has any concerns about the destabilizing effects of job losses on the American economy?

"Mr Greenspan said in a letter to the US Senate that flotation of the yuan, a move wanted by many in the US, could cause a heavy flow of capital out of China, which would in turn undermine Chinese banks and destabilize the world economy."

"The White House said it still wants China to move to allow its currency`s value to be determined by financial markets despite Mr Greenspan`s reservations about it, a spokesman said."

Note that the White House is apparently `not on the same page` where currency revaluation is concerned? While she has more pressing concerns at the moment I don`t think Martha Stewart would say that`s a good thing. I`ll bet the Chinese are confused. Looks to me like the White House might be wondering if easy Al is a very good wizard after all? Oh well, his term is up soon! Soon we can all look foreward to the Weimar (Ben) Bernanke show when he dons the wizard`s costume and slips behind the curtain. Since we need jobs, perhaps we should all be enrolling in helicopter flight school - delivering money. God help us all

best

Rob

[superman6]

Warum vekauft denn keiner mehr ein paar Aktien
bei Investika??

ISIN AU000000IVK1
Bezeichnung INVESTIKA FPO
Börse Australian Stock Exchange
Datum/Zeit 04.03.04/01:23:03
Letzter Kurs 0,03
Volumen/Trade -
Volumen/Tag 129.000
Geld Brief
Kurs 0,027 0,028
Volumen 600.000 455.052

Gib doch einer mal 600.000 Stck. ab.

[berrak]

ist es eigentlich gefährlich, sein geld / Gold bei einer bank zu haben, die dem "kartell" zuzurechnen ist ?

[Saludo]

!

Dieser Beitrag wurde vom System automatisch gesperrt. Bei Fragen wenden Sie sich bitte an [e-mail]

[ulfur]

Nur 21.000 neue Jobs in den USA!

Jobless recovery !

[ulfur]

[clonecrash]

#8849 von Saludo

Es mag ja sein das nicht jeder diese Aktien UCL usw. so lieb hat, wie ein Gewisser D...pusher.

Aber es nevt überall nur noch den gleichen Müll zu lesen,immer wieder das gleiche zu den Teilen.

Aber der Wahnsinn ist nunmal überall.

mfg

[Leon der Profi]

Huiiii, das geht ja ab wie Schmierseife heute...
laut der 6$-Regel dürfte Gold allerdings nicht über 398 schließen

[hpoth]

Sag bitte mal seit wann beteht die 6$ Regel, mir ist noch von früher die 20$ Regel im Kopf.
mfg hpoth

[ulfur]

U.S. February job growth surprisingly weak
Fri Mar 5, 2004 08:29 AM ET

WASHINGTON, March 5 (Reuters) - U.S. employers added a paltry 21,000 workers to their payrolls last month, far fewer than expected, according to a government report on Friday that was likely to weigh on President George W. Bush as he seeks re-election.
In its report, the Labor Department said private-sector employment was unchanged in February, while the government added 21,000 workers.

The report also showed job creation in November and December was weaker than previously thought, adding to the weak tone of the report. The department revised lower its count of jobs gains in December to 97,000 from 112,000 and for November to just 8,000 from 16,000.

February`s unemployment rate held steady at 5.6 percent.

Economists at top Wall Street firms had forecast a February payrolls gain of 125,000 new jobs.

Over the last three months, employment has risen an average of just 42,000 per month, down from the 79,000 average of the prior three months and far short of the 150,000 or so jobs needed each month just to keep pace with growth in the labor force.

Employment in construction tumbled by 24,000, while the factory sector shed 3,000 workers, the 43rd consecutive monthly drop.

The service sector also proved surprisingly weak, creating only 46,000 new positions.

Democrats have hit Bush hard for presiding over the weakest period of jobs creation for any president since Herbert Hoover during the Great Depression.
http://www.thebulliondesk.com/NewsProvider.aspx?NewsID=55797…

[Leon der Profi]

20 $ wäre mir auch sehr recht hab mir nämlich vorgestern ein paar 736008 für 13 cent gekrallt. Das Teil hat jetzt einen richtig geilen Hebel.
Aber bis jetzt ist doch jeder Tageanstieg von Gold bei 6 $ gekappt worden. Und heute sieht`s schon fast wieder so aus...

[ulfur]

Krise in Venezuela treibt Ölpreise weiter hoch
Freitag 5 März, 2004 14:45 CET



London (Reuters) - Die zugespitzte politische Lage im Förderland Venezuela und die bevorstehende Produktionsdrosselung der Opec haben die Ölpreise am Freitag auf ein Ein-Jahres-Hoch getrieben. In den USA treffen die Raffinerien bereits Vorbereitungen auf Lieferunterbrechungen aus Venezuela, obwohl das Land versichert, dass es dazu nicht kommen wird. Die Regierung in Washington hat sich bereits "extrem besorgt" über die kräftig anziehenden Benzinpreise geäußert.


Der Preis für ein Barrel (rund 159 Liter) leichtes US-Öl stieg vorübergehend auf 37,12 Dollar. Das ist der höchste Stand seit Mitte März vergangenen Jahres, kurz vor Beginn des Irak-Krieges. Später lag der Preis mit 37,02 Dollar noch 38 Cent höher als am Vortag. Die Nordseesorte Brent zur Lieferung im April verteuerte sich um 30 Cent auf 33,19 Dollar.

"Die Situation in Venezuela ist mit Sicherheit Besorgnis erregend", sagte David Thurtell von der Commonwealth Bank in Australien. Er verwies auf den überraschenden Rücktritt des venezuelanischen UNO-Botschafters aus Protest gegen die Politik von Präsident Hugo Chavez. In Venezuela - dem fünftgrößten Ölexportland der Welt - gab es zuletzt heftige soziale Unruhen. Die Opposition will ein Referendum über eine Absetzung von Chavez in diesem Jahr durchsetzen. "Wenn die Proteste zu einem Generalstreik eskalieren, wie wir zuletzt Ende 2002 gesehen haben, wird das die Ölpreise sehr, sehr stark nach oben treiben", sagte Thurtell.

Nach Angaben des Opec-Mitglieds Venezuela wird die Organisation Erdöl exportierender Länder (Opec) trotz der steigenden Ölpreise an ihren Plänen zur Fördermengendrosselung festhalten. Am 31. März treffen sich die Opec-Ölminister, um ihre Förderpolitik zu überprüfen. Anfang Februar hatte das Ölkartell beschlossen, die derzeitige Obergrenze für die tägliche Produktion von 24,5 Millionen Barrel ab 1. April um eine Million Barrel zu reduzieren. Ziel ist es, dem befürchteten ungewöhnlich starken Nachfrageeinbruch im Frühjahr entgegenwirken.

http://www.reuters.de/newsPackageArticle.jhtml?type=economic…

[ulfur]

KURSRUTSCH

Schlechte US-Arbeitsmarktzahlen schocken Börse

Ökonomen und Analysten hatten damit gerechnet, dass in den USA im Februar mindestens 125.000 neue Jobs entstehen. Die am Freitag veröffentlichten Zahlen lagen jedoch deutlich unterhalb der Schätzung, die Börsen drehten binnen Minuten ins Minus.



AP
US-Arbeitslose: Der Aufschwung macht sich nicht auf dem Arbeitsmarkt bemerkbar
New York - Die Arbeitslosenquote in den USA ist im Februar unverändert bei saisonbereinigt 5,6 Prozent geblieben. Wie das Arbeitsministerium am Freitag in Washington mitteilte, wurden 21 000 neue Arbeitsplätze geschaffen - weit weniger als erwartet. Im Januar waren revidiert noch 97.000 neue Stellen geschaffen worden.

Insgesamt waren nach Angaben des Ministeriums 8,2 Millionen Menschen ohne Arbeit gemeldet. Nach Angaben der Wirtschaftsagentur Bloomberg blieb die Rate gegenüber dem Januar unter anderem deshalb unverändert, weil viele Arbeitslose aufgaben und damit nicht mehr in der Statistik auftauchten. Von Reuters befragte Experten hatten im Schnitt 125.000 neue Arbeitsplätze erwartet, einige Ökonomen hatten gar ein erheblich stärkeres Jobwachstum prognostiziert.

Die Terminkontrakte auf die wichtigsten US-Aktienmarktindizes gaben unmittelbar nach Vorlage der mit Spannung erwarteten Daten kräftig nach und deuteten damit auf eine schwächere Eröffnung hin. Der Future auf den Dow-Jones-Index verlor fast 60 Punkte, der S&P-Future sank um fünf Punkte, der Nasdaq-Future gab um mehr als 13 Punkte nach. Die Kurse der zehnjährigen US-Staatsanleihen schnellten um mehr als einen vollen Punkt nach oben, die Rendite sank im Gegenzug unter 3,9 Prozent auf den niedrigsten Stand seit Juli 2003.

[wolf2001]

...hier einige GATA-Reports von heute ( www.lemetropole.com ) ..

Gruß wolf

March 5 - Gold $401 up $8.60 - Silver $6.95 up 21 cents

Gold Pops Big / Silver Headed For The Moon

Our energy is in proportion to the resistance it meets. We attempt nothing great but from a sense of the difficulties we have to encounter, we persevere in nothing great but from a pride in overcoming them... William Hazlitt

(William Hazlitt (1778-1830) is one of the great masters of English prose style. Hazlitt turned criticism into art form. Many of his essays are like conversation poems - witty, profound and eagerly alive to the surfaces of the work of art he is appreciating. No study of the Romantic movement can be complete without a reading of his essays. For too long he has been regarded as a marginal figure, instead of being seen as the supreme genius of Romantic prose. A radical republican, like Milton, he possessed an epic imagination which he chose to embody in an eloquent stream of reviews and critical essays.)

GO GATA!!!!

A horrendous US jobs report sent the dollar reeling and gold/silver soaring.

March 5 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. employers added 21,000 workers in February, less than the lowest forecast amid the fastest annual economic expansion in at least two decades. The unemployment rate held at 5.6 percent and more job-seekers left the work force.
The results follow a January gain of 97,000 that was less than previously estimated, the Labor Department said in Washington, and trailed the median forecast of 130,000 in a Bloomberg News survey of economists. Factory employment fell by 3,000, the 43rd straight decline. –END-

Thus, the two upcoming big events which pressured gold this past week were both non-event duds – those being a cut in European interest rates, which was to weaken the euro, and a positive US jobs report, which was supposed to show a strengthening American economy, thereby giving further support to the dollar. 0 for 2!

The disappointing job news electrified the bond bulls, dollar bears and gold bulls. Bonds rose 3 points at one point, finally settling at 115 28/32, up 2 5/32. The dollar fell to 88.23, down .99, while the euro jumped 1.84 to 123.47. Gold quickly bolted $9 higher before Goldman Sachs and the gold police showed up to pound gold down, as per their usual drill. For almost the entire day the $6 rule was enforced with gold trading in a range of $6 to $7 higher. However, the buying was so large The Gold Cartel forces were taken on and gold moved up another $2 as we came into the close.

While I will have a smile on my face this weekend, it must be reported how sickening this gold manipulation operation is. Anyone watching gold trade today could see it. We should have been up $16, just like we got on the downsides. But ... NO ... not allowed. Worse thing is, ONLY the GATA camp screams about this outrage.

Good to see gold with a $400 handle again. If we take out, $403.50 basis the April contract, the floor thinks gold will accelerate very quickly. It ought to. The fundamentals are as good as they get.

The gold open interest fell 3497 contracts yesterday to 231,680 going into the jobs report. The silver open interest also dropped to 111,226, down 2311 contracts. A number of traders feared a strong report could send the precious metals into the toilet.

There were no gaps left today, leaving a good shot at some sort of breakaway gap next week.

JUST IN:

One of my best sources heard today from a veteran London gold dealer that he has never seen the gold market this tight in 35 years in Switzerland, England and the rest of Europe. Gold is just not available in size at these low prices. A number of coin operations are shutting down because they have no supply. The coin market is barren. He also tells me this London dealer confirms the information presented to you over the past few months about China. They are shifting a portion of their dollar reserves into the precious metals, and doing so in a manner that doesn’t ruffle the dollar, which could happen were they directly selling the dollar and buying euros for example.

Gold has turned
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/44

Silver soared after the jobs report and, unlike gold, made a new high for the day late in the session. Technically, silver looks like a powerhouse. Regard:

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SV/34

That is one spectacular chart. Silver has broken out from its recent base and trading range. The base is strong enough to support a significant move to the upside. $7.50 for openers. Once the silver genie is let out of the bottle, anything can happen. The energy behind the coming silver move is extremely POWERFUL! Don’t be surprised if we get our $1 move to the upside within weeks.

Now for the silver weekly, a new high:

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SV/W

As a result of yesterday’s deliveries, March silver open interest fell 1310 contracts to 715. There were only 68 deliveries today, 24 stopped by Deutsche Bank again (a stopper is someone who receives the deliveries from someone else who is selling the silver).

Regarding Goldman Sachs buying those 2 to 3 thousand April $7.50 silver calls yesterday. For 5 ½ years I have been ranting about their manipulating the gold market. Clearly, they are in cahoots with the US Government/Fed. The quid pro quo must be that Goldman stays all over the gold price for The Gold Cartel and, in turn, they receive information in advance regarding economic reports. You can’t tell me GS didn’t know how bad the employment report was going to be. They knew silver and gold would fly and bought all those silver calls on the cheap. The floor thought they way overpaid for them. The floor also doesn’t deal with the rigging operation facts.

Speaking of the silver floor. Most of the traders are young and have never seen a silver bull market. They can’t even visualize one, which is why there is so little enthusiasm on the floor. The few old timers down there are telling them they won’t believe what the silver price can do on the upside and probably will. So much for those traders on the Comex who said silver will never stay above $6.80.

There is also disquiet on the Comex about copper deliveries. There are so many people taking delivery, they can’t get the copper out of the warehouses on time. Lining up trucks to move it has become a problem. Wait until the silver starts disappearing.

I would like to thank the Café sources again, who have provided us with correct and incredibly valuable gold/silver information over the past many months. Been at this commodity market drill for many years and never had anything like this happen to me before. Hail to the internet and some very nice and plugged-in Café members!



The John Brimelow Report

Bears bless overhead supplier

Friday, March 05, 2004


India ex-duty premiums: AM $6.50, PM $5.41, with world gold at $392.50 and $393.25. Ample for legal imports. Overall sentiment in India was boosted today by the success of the largest secondary offering in the country’s history, for the Indian National Oil and Natural Gas Corporation. The Bombay Stock Exchange was up 3.8% on the week.

Further weakness in the yen created some interest in gold futures on TOCOM this morning. Volume jumped 77% to the equivalent of 31,016 Comex lots, the active contract closed up 16 yen. World gold was 80c above NY at the close. However, the public seemed inclined to liquidate: open interest fell by the equivalent of 1,870 Comex contracts. As yet, the public is not convinced a prolonged, yen-gold futures-friendly slide in the yen will happen. Equally, the Chinese, as judged by the Shanghai Gold Exchange, do not expect imminent yuan revaluation: the various grades of gold traded in Shanghai have moved up to suspiciously wide premiums of over $5, which would not happen if a possible jump in the Yuan was taken seriously. (NY on Thursday traded 42,501 contracts; open interest fell 3,497 lots.)

Yesterday, during which modest rally attempts by gold were uniformly blocked by selling, has of course been completely superseded by today’s action. In an eerie reprise of Friday a month ago, a disappointing US economic statistic triggered a powerful rally, so violent as to indicate that at least some of the downward pressure of late was short selling. Even more eerie is the magnitude of the selling which has promptly appeared in NY to cap the rally: 40,000 contacts estimated by 10 AM, 25,000 of that between 9AM & 10. during which gold essentially moved sideways. This is exactly what happened a month ago.

Nevertheless, notwithstanding the apparent presence of a rescue team in the form of a stand by overhead seller, the Bears face some difficulty. They are trying to stop the market some $10 lower than a month ago, with the main physical buyers demonstrably active and insulated from changes in the US$ by their Central Banks. The Western spec community is only lightly involved. And if the yen weakness continues, TOCOM interest is possible.

JB

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

Oil continues to surge, closing at $37.26, up .62. The CRB rebounded to 274.57. What is gold doing at $400? It ought to be steaming towards $500. It will when the cabal begins to lose control of their scam.

The yen tanked badly today, finishing the day at 112.04 and making a new low for the move. There was massive Japanese intervention to take it down. With the surge in US bonds, the Japanese central bank is making a fortune and has the money to bury its own currency to protect its export market.

Rumors are beginning to circulate the Bush Administration is very upset with the Japanese, especially with the dismal jobs outlook in the US. Talk is the Fed/Bush Administration might be preparing to drive the dollar down sharply in the near future. Lordy, lordy if that happens. Gold and silver should go bananas. Of course, they both ought to be doing so anyway with all this commodity inflation.

The US consumer goes more in hock, from Jesse:
This report was largely ignored today because of the jobs report.
They may not have jobs, but they are sinking into debt at a record pace.

US consumer credit rose sharply in January - Fed
Reuters, 03.05.04, 3:05 PM ET

WASHINGTON, March 5 (Reuters) - U.S. consumers sped up their borrowing in January, according to a Federal Reserve report out on Friday, as shoppers took advantage of low interest rates on auto loans.

The Fed said consumer credit outstanding rose by a larger-than-expected $14.3 billion in January to a seasonally adjusted $2.016 trillion. That was up from the revised $8.2 billion gain seen in December and above Wall Street analysts` projections for a $5.9 billion gain.

January`s increase was the largest since a $17.9 billion advance seen in May.

-END-


GATA’s Mike Bolser:

Hi Bill:
The Fed took a day off today March 5th 2004 and this caused the repo pool to fall to a very low $22.28 Billion. Moreover the pool`s 30-day moving average confirmed my guess yesterday that a new wrinkle has been added to the Fed`s latest repo down draft.

As I mentioned, this latest turnaround in the pool`s 30-day ma appears to be different, it does not show a sharp "V" pattern as it turned back up. Today`s inaction by the Fed in repos causes the pool`s ma to dip further down and signals that there may be even more downward pressure on the DOW next week. It is reasonable to look around for macroeconomic events that require the Fed to lower the DOW (at least temporarily). Perhaps, in the face of deteriorating fundamentals, a manufactured bond surge?

As for the DOW, its 30-day ma is almost fully rounded off in a topping pattern headed level for now at 10,600, as predicted. Do not expect the DOW to move upward in March under these repo conditions.

As the dollar took a ruler-edge drop at 8:45 AM this morning we can only wonder at the desperation of the Fed as it struggles with an unruly CRB Index, runaway commodities and a no longer credible "no inflation" mantra. Indeed, the large bulk shipping carriers are queued up for weeks waiting to load basic ore and other items on the way to China. The shipping rates are well up adding even more to inflationary expectations.

More on my new website:

http://www.pbase.com/gmbolser/interventional_analysis

The posting times for the Repos chart is around noon while the posting time for the others is usually by 6-7PM as the Fed normally completes its currency exchange H10 report by 5:30PM.

As of yesterday`s report, the DIVG 200-day moving average continues in an unbroken (almost linear) up slope, headed for new territory. The Fed is in retreat.
Mike

LATE EDITION ADD from Mike:

Hi Bill:
I have updated my IA (Interventional Analysis) website this evening so all images are current at this hour, 5PM December 5th 2004.

Yen/dollar divergence-convergence linked to gold moves

Of some importance is the apparent link between the periods of yen/dollar divergence (in the Relative changes currency and gold inverted chart presentation where the yen falls as it gains value). This divergence occurs when the yen and dollar BOTH lose relative value and the odd presentation convention was chosen to highlight any such yen/dollar changes.

Gold is seen to move up when there has been a rapid yen/dollar divergence. Specifically, in April `03, mid July `03 and again in Sept `03. In each case the yen/dollar divergence was sharp and gold moved up.

The reverse seems also true. During periods of convergence, which is to say when the yen and dollar both gained relative value, gold moved down. Note January `03. December`s sharp up move by the dollar was, according to the Fed, a weighting change and not related to nominal valuation.

The yen/dollar divergence and gold price linkage is doubtless due to associated derivatives designed to suppress gold`s price. Going forward, I am encouraged by this new independent gold trend indicator and will give it thorough attention in the coming weeks.

What this means

Given last week`s sharp divergence in the yen/dollar traces (yen now over 111 from 105) we can expect a further up move in gold on top of today`s $10 move.

I continue to highlight the DIVG`s 200-day ma as a strong indicator of a
retreat-in-progress by the gold cartel.

http://www.pbase.com/gmbolser/interventional_analysis

Mike



From The King Report:

Intel has been rallying on rumor/innuendo/hope/hype that it would emit a bullish mid-Q1 update. But the environment is long on hype and short on fact, so after Thursday’s close, Intel rained on the intractabull parade. They tightened their Jan forecast of Q1 revenue from $7.9B to $8.5B down to $8B to $8.2B. Analysts expected $8.27B, so Intel sold off in after-hour trading. If more people would’ve checked DRAM prices (DRMX on Bloomberg) and noticed China’s surging semiconductor capacity (abetted by attractive government incentives) they would not have gotten so jiggy. Prices are lower on increasing Asian inventories. Furthermore, Intel and other techs have been playing the same game of issuing initially bullish forecasts with later lowered forecasts and then they beat earnings by a penny. How many times can people be manipulated before they realize the scheme? Of course if you want to be fooled, you don’t care. Call it the W.C. Fields method of investor relations ("Never give a sucker an even break"…US Trust’s Jimmy Chang after Intel’s disappointing announcement, "We’re coming down to reality." And if reality every appears en masse on Wall or Main Streets, you know the rest.

Dr. Marc Faber notes, "According to the Yale School of Management`s opinion poll, currently 95% of individuals and close to 92% of financial institutions believe that the US stock market will rise over the next 12 months." http://www.ameinfo.com/news/Detailed/35660.html Are you comfortable in crowds?

-END-

ISLANDIA, N.Y., March 5 /PRNewswire/ -- Over four out of ten Americans (42%) are making just minimum payments or no payments on their credit card balances, according to the Cambridge Consumer Credit Index.

Houston`s Dan Norcini:
Hi Bill:
Probably a bit too late to get this update in but commitments data for gold reveals a sizeable shift in fund positioning which I believe is quite significant especially in light of today`s price action.

There was a swing of nearly 19,000 contracts in the net fund position from the long side to the short side in gold. Funds, as of Tuesday, had reduced down to the point where they were nearly long at a 2:1 ratio. This is simply a massive shift in fund positioning from the January peak in the gold price where funds were long by nearly a 5:1 ratio.

What this tells us is that the funds had begun to not only eliminate longs but were in the process of actually building a short position since the technical indicators had all flipped negative. With this setup, gold has the potential to see a very significant amount of fund short covering especially if more resistance levels are breached to the upside and the technical indicators continue on up. Ideally, we need to see a close above horizontal resistance near $405, and then a close above the 40 day Moving Average coming in near the $407 level to push them out of the market and cement the bottom in gold and prep for the next leg up. If gold manages two consecutive closes over that 40 day Moving Average, the short funds are OUT. Their black boxes will yell at them to cover and to go long.

What i think bears some emphasis is the small spec category. Hats off to our gang - they continued to add to their long positions as the market went down and the funds failed out and went short. The little guys bought the weakness while the funds sold it! How` bout that? And who says the little specs are always wrong! The way the small specs are trading this gold market, they are going to have the funds and the cartel for lunch.

From where I stand, today`s jobs number is so devastating to the dollar bull`s cause, that I cannot see them piping up for some time after the shock of those numbers wore off. The bond market is in effect saying "NO rate hike this year. Period! End of story."
Best,
Dan


Bill,


Thought your readers might appreciate seeing these. The first is a $10,000 gold certificate from 1882. The second is a $1000 silver certificate from 1880.







Who knows? If GATA has anything to say about it, we may be using something similar in the future. (Today was a good start toward that goal!!)
Derek

A query from a Cafe member:

A suggestion about derivatives.

When reading the bond article, the last one in the GATA report, a thought came to mind regarding the confluences in the markets, and the strange behavior of market segments that are driving economists nuts. Have you noticed that many are having a hard time telling us what it is? We hear deflation, inflation, stagflation, and every word and explanation under the sun, including the order they are going to happen in. Why can`t we see what it is?

A hypothesis if you will.

The strength of derivative trading via computer models is so powerful, and there is so much profit involved here for the banks, that they will back their models with all the money they have to perhaps create the edge needed to make the computer projected model correct. In other words, derivatives are the main means for making money, and the markets are now a reflection of derivative trade rather then the free flow of buy and sell markets. This aside from the hedge funds, who appear to be in control, but perhaps they themselves are also subject to models they have created in this huge derivatives bet. As the markets become heavier and heavier with layered derivatives, we get less true economic responses to situations in the way we were used to seeing them. Could this then be the end of the markets as we really knew them just a few scant years ago?

I would love your input into this notion.
Peter

Peter, I think all this market manipulation/management/smoothing will lead to financial chaos as it unravels. Look at today for example. The US jobs report was an unmitigated disaster. What does the stock market do? Nothing. The DOW closed up 8 to 10,595 and the DOG fell 7 to 2047. The PPT crowd was busy holding up the DOW, while they were doing what they could to keep gold from soaring. At some point in the future, we will have a derivatives crisis and GATA will be there to say we told you so.

Café member commentary of interest:

Hi Bill
This afternoon, I watched a cable news program that featured the head of the transportation dept. (I think, but I may have the wrong dept) He spoke of a new bill that was being created by Pres Bush that would build new roads and repair roads and bridges throughout the US. The sum of money required was an astronomical dollar amount. ( Again I`m sorry, but I don`t remember the exact number.

He said that this sum of money would not affect the deficit and that the program would put Americans back to work.

Sounds like the 1930`s again, and if these are the types of jobs that will affect employment numbers, while all of the good jobs go overseas, what truth is left? I think we are further along the road to ruin than I henceforth believed, while most Americans still don`t have a clue. Sorry to be so negative, I don`t mean to be, I`m sure that programs like these are bound to wake up many more people in this great country and open their eyes to see the financial dilemma we are in.

Perhaps then, we can find better solutions to the problems confronting our great country, and will bring about the many positive changes" that will save the day"
Jeff

Good morning Bill: I just finished reading your MIDAS column. You are probably all over this... Earlier this year (or late last year) you mentioned that Mexico may be pressuring the U.S. to give amnesty to illegal aliens or they would squeeze the COMEX.

Well, I find it interesting that March silver went to a premium over May and on the same day, there`s a Drudge headline that states: "Mexico to pressure U.S. for amnesty for illegal aliens`.

Just a heads up. bob

Bill;
Perhaps it`s too early in the morning to even think about cataclysms but if one`s going to occur I`ll put half my chips on PPI (they are hiding it from us for a reason) and the other half on a short squeeze/blow up of silver at COMEX. The clowns in charge know the real situation where PPI is concerned. If inflation is anywhere near what my common sense tells me it is-we`re in for a substantial near term rate rise. Interest rate sensitivity is the most likely the Achilles Heel of both Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae (and J.P.Morgan`s 35 trillion cyclops of a derivatives book for that matter).

As an aside, I worked in the capital markets for about 15 years. Interest rate derivatives. One of my accounts was the largest in the world at the time. Got to know the rate swap traders quite well. One of them left his then employer (let`s just say it was a bullion bank that specialized in derivatives) and went to work for another large bank-but to trade bonds and futures. Having diner with him one night and he tells me the swap desk at his new employer (respecting his opinion) asks him to do an analysis of their swap book. He told me he "modeled" their book to show them what would happen if an adverse interest rate movement were to occur. Understand, at this point he`s talking about standard deviations and the sort. He was, shall we say, mortified. The crux of his analysis was that if short term rates rose something in the order of 350 or so basis points in short order- the bank "blew up". We drank lots of wine that night but reamained unusually sober. Food for thought.
best
Rob

Hi Bill,
I happened to listen to the news yesterday on France Inter, a national radio, and I was stunned when I heard Laurent Fabius, a former socialist prime minister, Bilderberger member, one of the wealthiest men in France saying that ALL the gold of the Banque de France should be sold. He told that it should be sold gradually in order not to sink the price. He said this gold has become useless because the euro is backed now by the ECB ! The proceeds should be used to fund social housing.

He said that during an electoral meeting, so may be it`s a bit of demagogy.
But I thought it could interest you.

I wish you all the best. Carry on your great job.
Gilles (of France)

[hpoth]

An alle die den guten Thaiguru vermissen, dazu gehöhre auch ich, ihr könnt Kontakt mit Ihn aufnehmen über seine E-Mail Adresse [e-mail] hat mir heute auf meine E-Mail geantwortet und die Gründe mitgeteilt warum er nicht mehr postet.Er hat seine Mitgliedschaft bei Wvor 8 Tagen selbst aufgelöst, nachdem eine Abklärung ergeben hat, dass sich der Umstand ergeben hat nicht mehr ungehindert posten konnte eindeutig bei W:O lag, und nicht bei seinen Serviceprovider.Er nimmt an dass seine DNS,oder seine Computer ID wiederholt zeitweise bei Wgesperrt wurden,sodass er keinen direkten Zugang mehr bei Wbekam. Über anonyme Serve funktionierte ja der Zugang zwar noch, doch erstens ist die Verbindung sehr langsam um dauerhaft zu posten, und zweitens möchte er nur dort posten wo seine Präsenz und Meinung auch wirklich erwünscht ist. Das scheint ja hier bei Wnicht der Fall zu sein, schade,schade.
Sehr ungewöhnlich ist auch dr Umstand,dass obwohl er seine Mitgliedschaft bei Wbereits vor 8 Tagen selbst beendet hat, die normalerwiese bei Wübliche Meldung " Mitgliedschaft von User ThaiGuru aufgelöst" unter seinen allgemeinen zugänglichen User Daten nicht erscheint.
Vielleicht will Wdadurch erreichen,dass die Leser fällschicherweise glauben, er würde einfach nicht mehr posten.
Die im Bord von diversen Usern gestellten Fragen nach seinem Verbleib, wurde bemerkenswerter Weise auch von keinem Board Mod beantworet, obwohl die genau wissen müssten was los ist. Er ist anscheinend ganz einfach nicht mehr erwünscht bei W:O. Ob´s wohl an den WWerbekunden liegen mag, oder wo anders her kommt bleibt ihm und uns leider verschlossen. Ein technisches Problem war das aber mit Sicherheit nicht,auch wenn Wdas später einmal behupten wird oder sollte.
Da Gold und Silb er jedoch auch ohne seiner Präsenz mit Sicherheit mittel-,und langfristig weiter steigen werden, und bereits sehr viele Leser, und Useer " einmalpleitereicht" die GATA Veröffentlichungen eingebracht hat.Sein Schluß ist Gold und Silber strong buy!!!!
Glaube so wurde auch goldonly heraus befördert.
Schönes Wochende wünscht Euch allen
hpoth

[ulfur]

Von Thaiguru habe ich das Gleiche wie Hpoth erfahren. Er will nicht mehr bei w:o posten, da er meint, seine IP-Adresse würde gezielt gesperrt.

Ich hoffe dennoch, daß das Problem nur technischer Natur ist. Vieleicht könnte sich jemand aus der technischen Abteilung von w:o mit Thaiguru in Verbindung setzen und klären, warum er die w:o Seiten nicht erreichen kann.

[dieNachteule]

@alle


Solange immer jemand anderes die wunderbaren Beiträge von Lemetropolecafe reinstellt, fehlt mir hier nichts. Nur nicht einschüchtern lassen! Gold und Silber sind eh nicht zu Stoppen. Es wird wohl eine Weile dauern, aber das Schöne ist:

Gold und Silber steigen trotz Manipulation!


Silber strong buy, Gold buy.


@Thaiguru


Das ist ja ein Hammer.

Ich glaube aber, du hast sehr viel Aufklärung geleistet, und kannst ja woanders weitermachen. Oder irgendwann unter neuer ID wieder auftauchen. Du bist hier sehr erwünscht, warum also empfindlich sein?


MfG, Die Nachteule

[Teffie]

CDU geht ab!



Schade das ThaiGuru weg ist! War immer ein intressanter Thread!

MFG Teffie!

[Tsuba]

____________

Der "Fall Thai-Guru" wurde in "WFEEDBACK"

verschoben.

Wennich sagen würde, daß mich der Fall Thai Guru wundert,

wäre das nicht zutreffend.

Nach GOLDONLY, SOVEREIGN war damit zu rechnen.


Gruss

Tsuba

[ulfur]

Der Thread von niemandweiss wurde ziemlich schnell in ein anderes Board verschoben.

Keine Reaktion von w:o hingegen zu der eigentlichen Frage, warum Thaiguru nicht mehr posten kann.

Doch Machenschaften???

[clonecrash]

Wenn Thai irgendwo anders sein Wissen kund tut, lasst es mich wissen.

Es gibt mit Sicherheit Massenhaft Bords, in dennen Thai sein Wissen weiter geben kann.


mfg

[aneises2]

Hallo zusammen,

habe eine Mail an ThaiGuru geschickt, in der ich íhm als Alternative folgendes Forum für seine geschätzten Beiträge vorschlug:

http://f17.parsimony.net/forum30434/index.htm

Gruß
aneises2

[clonecrash]

8867 von aneises2

Gute Idee

mfg

[konradi]

.
Man glaubt es nicht:


Staatsfinanzen: Eichels Schwenk

Der Bundesfinanzminister will die enorme Zinslast des Bundes drücken - und dafür unter die Zocker gehen.


Wolfgang Reuter



Fast so wichtig wie der neueste Sparplan von Bundesfinanzminister Hans Eichel selbst ist dessen Geheimhaltung: Die Gruppe seiner Experten ist handverlesen und zu absoluter Verschwiegenheit verpflichtet. Auf jeder einzelnen Seite ihres Berichts prangt der Schriftzug "Streng vertraulich". Eine penibel geführte Liste verzeichnet zudem, wer das Papier wann zu Gesicht bekommen hat. All das hat einen guten Grund.

"Was hier zum Schuldenmanagement des Bundes vorgeschlagen wird", so ein Beteiligter, "ist äußerst kapitalmarktrelevant." Wer vorab weiß, wie Eichel die Zinsbelastung des Bundes senken will, könnte illegale Insidergeschäfte tätigen. Das brisante Papier droht zudem die Anleihemärkte in Aufruhr zu versetzen. Denn Berlins Kassenwart will unter die Zocker gehen und sich auf hoch spekulative Geschäfte einlassen.

Devise eins: Nach uns die Sintflut. Devise zwei: Ohne Risiko kein Profit.

Schon heute zahlt der Bund jedes Jahr rund 38 Milliarden Euro an Zinsen. Zwischen 2004 und 2006 werden obendrein rund 250 Milliarden der Gesamtschulden von knapp 800 Milliarden Euro fällig. Dieser Berg muss umgeschichtet werden. Das Ministerium fürchtet, der Kapitalmarkt werde die hohen Summen nur mit teuren Aufschlägen akzeptieren.

Ein ganzes Bündel von Maßnahmen soll die Situation deshalb kurzfristig entspannen. Der Kern von Eichels Geheimplan ist die "Neustrukturierung der Staatsschulden", für die das Ministerium ein "Zielportfolio" entwickelt hat, das in zehn Jahren erreicht werden und deutlich mehr Anleihen mit kurzen Laufzeiten enthalten soll als heute (siehe Grafik).



Die durchschnittliche Laufzeit sinkt schon bis 2007 von 6,17 auf 5,22 Jahre, was die Zinsenausgaben in dieser Zeit um rund 500 Millionen Euro drückt. Doch die Ersparnis hat ihren Preis.

Denn je kürzer die Laufzeiten der Anleihen ausfallen, desto stärker wirken sich auch Zinsänderungen aus. Jeder Häuslebauer weiß das. Selbst Ex-Finanzminister Theo Waigel predigte stets: Sind die Zinsen niedrig, muss man sich Geld langfristig leihen. Eichel schwenkt nun um - obwohl dadurch auch Mehrausgaben entstehen können, wie seine Experten zugeben. Bis 2007 sei diese Gefahr jedoch gering, denn bis dahin überwiegen die billigeren Zinsen durch die Umschichtung.

Ist das Zielportfolio aber erreicht, steigt das Haushaltsrisiko kräftig an - und liegt dann "15 Prozent über dem Niveau des derzeitigen", was Eichels Fachleute noch für vertretbar halten. Das ist Ansichtssache.

Denn möglich ist auch, dass sich der Bund dann in einer Phase steigender Zinsen am Kapitalmarkt neu verschulden muss. Mit einer Wahrscheinlichkeit von immerhin 30 Prozent, so die Berechnungen, müsse er schon im ersten Jahr 570 Millionen Euro mehr aufbringen als unter der jetzigen Schulden-Architektur. Vier Jahre später läge die Summe bei 3,2, nach zehn Jahren sogar bei etwa 5,5 Milliarden Euro.

Die Umschichtung könnte so zu einem teuren Ausflug werden, der den relativ kleinen, kurzfristigen Gewinn kaum rechtfertigt. Doch das muss nicht mehr das Problem von Eichel sein, der dann sicher nicht mehr oberster Kassenwart in Berlin ist.

Zur "Strukturkomponente" des neuen Schuldenmanagements kommt eine "taktische Komponente". Die Finanzagentur des Bundes, die für Eichels Ministerium die Schulden managt, soll die Zinsentwicklung anhand von Wirtschaftsprognosen für die jeweils nächsten drei Jahre vorhersagen - und darauf spekulieren. Das tut sie mit Swaps, also hochriskanten Finanzinstrumenten, die eigentlich zum Absichern von Zinsrisiken gedacht sind.

Eichel hat die Finanzagentur bereits ermächtigt, diese Zockergeschäfte im Jahr 2004 auf 80 Milliarden Euro zu erhöhen. Obendrein will er künftig auch Fremdwährungsanleihen begeben, also Bundesschulden in Dollar, Rubel, britischen Pfund oder auch anderen Währungen.

Rechtlich ist das aber nicht möglich, der Bundestag müsste zustimmen. Doch auch diese Geschäfte sind riskant: Sinkt der Euro-Kurs gegenüber der jeweiligen Emissionswährung zum Ende der Laufzeit etwa um 20 Prozent, muss der Bund 20 Prozent mehr zurückbezahlen, als er sich geliehen hat.

Selbst bei einer Währungsabsicherung, heißt es in dem Bericht, "könnte der Eindruck von Spekulationsgeschäften entstehen". [ ] Andererseits führten diese Finanzinstrumente zu einer "Entlastung der Liquiditätssituation". Die sperrige Formulierung kaschiert eine prekäre Situation.

Die hohen Tilgungsverpflichtungen ab 2004 und die deshalb nötigen Umschuldungen könnten an den Märkten zu einem Überangebot führen, das von Investoren nur zu deutlich höheren Zinsen akzeptiert wird. Die Bundesanleihe, einst das sicherste Schuldpapier der Welt, droht dabei unter die Räder zu kommen. Wenn aber ein Teil der Schulden im Ausland platziert werde, sei diese Gefahr geringer.

Schon deshalb wollen Eichel und seine Finanzmanager den Gang zum Parlament antreten. Das einzige Problem: "Bisher wissen wir noch nicht", sagt ein Insider, "wie wir den Abgeordneten die Materie erklären sollen, ohne unsere Pläne im Detail offen zu legen."

DER SPIEGEL 11 / 2004

[Magor]

Die Schieflagen der Shorter, insbesondere jetzt in Silber, werden mit dem naherückenden Verfalltag der März-Optionen immer offensichtlicher, die Nerven liegen geradezu blank! Seit einer Woche kämpfe ich selbst mit einem der Cabalmitglieder, meine noch auf dem "Metallkonto" existierenden (oder auch nicht) Silberbestände in physischer Ware herauszugeben. Die Windungen, die sie machen sind schon fast lustig anzusehen!
Es kommen nunmal gerade interessante Zeiten auf uns zu, ich scheine glaube ich nicht alleine zu sein, der seine Bank zur Hardware-Herausgabe aufgefordert hat.
Versucht es mal, Ihr werdet Eueren Spaß dabei erleben!

Die Banker sind in der Ecke und werden zunehmend nervöser!
So ist es ist nicht von der Hand zu weisen, daß sie sich auch solcher Möglichkeiten bedienen, wie hier angedacht wurde, daß sie sich als Großkunden von WO schlichtweg unliebsame "Querulanten" verbeten ...

So meine ich, daß entgegen dem Vorschlag von Ulfur unter
# 8861
Zitat
Ich hoffe dennoch, daß das Problem nur technischer Natur ist. Vieleicht könnte sich jemand aus der technischen Abteilung von w:o mit Thaiguru in Verbindung setzen und klären, warum er die w:o Seiten nicht erreichen kann.
Zitat Ende

sollten wir doch
DEN WO BOARD-MOD AUFFORDERN, EINE STELLUNGNAHME ZU DIESEM VERDACHT DER ID-SPERRUNG ABZUGEBEN!

Ich glaube, Ihr Eingreifen und auch ihre Stellungnahmen schon bei weitaus banaleren Dingen hier im Board gesehen zu haben. Vielleicht gibt es auch ganz simple Eklärungen hierfür, die gebracht werden sollten, bevor unbeabsichtigt die Fronten sich verhärten!

Grüße
Magor

[Tsuba]

____

@Magor,

mir ist es in mehreren einzelfällen so gegangen

wie es hier beschrieben wurde. Ein Posting

kommt nicht an; und zwar eins mit exakt kritischer

Aussage.

Deshalb liegt der Fall subjektiv für mich

eindeutig so, wie es vom Thai kolportiert

wurde.

Nach den Erfahrungen in den Fällen Goldonly

und Sovereign gibt es dagegen keine Handhabe.

Meine Konsequenz: Unbekümmert posten, nach dem

Motto Apfelbäumchen pflanzen am Tag vor dem

Weltuntergang. Sich selbst verhärten ist keine

Alternative.


Gruss

Tsuba

[wolf2001]

Ich möchte hier meinen eigenen Beitrag (#8) aus dem (nach feedback verschobenen) Thread: Der Fall "THAI-GURU nochmal einstellen, weil ich finde, dass er eigentlich hierher gehört.

Sollte das tatsächlich zutreffen mit der Sperrung von ThaiGuru, muss ich sagen, dass ich`s - trotz meinen eigenen Ausführungen unten - kaum glauben kann. Ich fände das eine riesige unglaubliche Sauerei. Das darf einfach nicht so durchgehen.

--------------------------------------------------------
Thread: Der Fall "THAI-GURU (Der Fall ThaiGuru) # 8:

Nein, morbidus, das ist überhaupt nicht verständlich, dass WO hier nicht reagiert. Wenn WO so zeitnah über die Beiträge glotzt, dass z.B. dieser Thread schon einige Minuten (!!) nach seiner Eröffnung in eine Ecke verschoben wurde, wo ihn möglichst wenige sehen, dann könnten sie sehr wohl dieses " Missverständnis" aufklären, wenn es eines ist.

Technisch ist die Sperrung bestimmter ankommender Internet-Verbindung sicher machbar, auch wenn die IP-Nr. jedesmal wechselt.

Hallo BoardMod`s, da Ihr sicherlich auch diesen Beitrag mitlest, sagt doch mal :
Gibt es hier " technische Schwierigkeiten" ??

Ich glaube es aber nicht, da ThaiGuru alles andere als ein Idiot ist und sicher in irgendeiner Form erstmal versucht hat, die " technischen Probleme" mit WO zu klären und dabei wahrscheinlich zu der von hpoth erklärten Einschätzung kam. ThaiGuru war sicher einer der User, die die meißten und beßten Beiträge gesendet haben (wenn nicht die meißten überhaupt)und so einen stösst man nicht einfach - wie oben vermutet - seitens WO durch Desintersse an dessen technischen Probleme vor den Kopf.

Nein, wahscheinlich haben wir hier einen ganz besonders ekelhaften Fall von Zensur.

Ich habe mich dazu allgemein schonmal letzten Herbst ziemlich ausgiebig in Thread: Geschätzte Boardmoderatoren, - liebe Freunde des Goldaktienforums ... geäussert.

Damals hatte sich ein Mod namens scaramod mal etwas aus dem Fenster gewagt und aus dem " Nähkästchen" geplaudert, was er so von den Gold-Thread-Usern allgemein hält

#71:
... völlig kauzig, verbohrt und uneinsichtig; wie verschwörungstheoretiker halt. ..

und ausserdem seine Ansichten zu Zensur- und Meinungsfreiheit zum Besten gegeben.(Erschreckend finde ich, und meiner Meinung nach auch peinlich).

Ich kann mir gut vorstellen, dass solche Leute sogar einen ThaiGuru sperren.

Aber wie ekelerregend feige:

Sie sagen noch nicht mal: " ThaiGuru, du darfst hier nicht mehr posten, weil du nicht die nötige Untertanen-Gesinnung mitbringst. Ein bisschen rumstänkern gegen die Amis ist vielleicht erlaubt, aber konsequent und fundiert, mit Niveau und Ausdauer auf die massive Medienmanipulation hinzuweisen, das stört die allgemeine Verdummumg der Bevökerung dann doch zu sehr. Deshalb zensieren wir!"

Das sagen sie (natürlich) nicht, aber nicht mal eine andere vorgeschobene Erklärung getrauen sie sich zu bringen.

Heimlich, still und leise wollen sie sogar einen ThaiGuru mundtot machen. Ich finde, das soll nicht einfach so durchgehen !

Also BoardMod`s, Ihr lest doch hier mit:
Erklärt doch mal, was es mit ThaiGurus Ausscheiden auf sich hat ? Alles nur " technische Schwierigkeiten" ?


Gruß wolf

[aneises2]

Die Zensur findet auch im WO-Chat statt.
Gestern hatte ich zwei Mal die Frage gestellt, warum in NY keine südafrikanischen Originalgoldaktien gehandelt werden (mehr aus Provokation).
Alle Fragen von mir wurden an Herrn Siegel weiter geleitet und beantwortet nur diese Frage zwei Mal nicht.
Da kann sich jeder seinen Reim drauf machen!

Gruß
aneises2

[clonecrash]

hier ist auch ein Bord wo Goldbugs ausweichen könnten.

.....goldseiten-forum.de

Wir haben soviel Platz für die Wahrheit.

mfg

[superman6]

an thai-guru

Die Sache mit AGD-Mining.Du siehst jetzt
ist Deepgreen an der Reihe.
Wer weiß, was das mit Investika und Cambrian
noch alles Positives gibt.
Hieraus begründet sich meine Annahme:


RNS Number:6853S
Cambrian Mining PLC
01 December 2003


1 December 2003

For immediate release

Cambrian Mining Plc (" Cambrian" or " The Company" )


CAMBRIAN ANNOUNCES PLANS TO TAKE ITS HOLDING IN DEEPGREEN MINERALS TO 100%

Directors of Cambrian Mining Plc (" Cambrian or the Company" ) advise they have
entered into a conditional agreement with the board of Deepgreen Minerals
Corporation Ltd (" Deepgreen) under which Cambrian will acquire all shares,
options and notes in Deepgreen not already owned by Cambrian

[silvo]

Hallo Thai, Magor, Hpoth und all die anderen Silber-Goldoptimisten!!

Jetzt erst recht!!!


Keine Unze bzw Edelmetallaktie wird her gegeben!!!
Bin selbst sogar mit Kredit engagiert -bisher sehr erfolgreich-.


Es wär schon als Erfolg zu verbuchen, wenn man seinen Wertpapierberater von Silber überzeugen könnte!

(Die träumen nach wie vor von Telekom, Daimler etc


Thai wir kämpfen für dich!!!!!!!!!!!

[dieNachteule]

@Magor

Deshalb kaufe ich gleich physisch. Das gibt keine Probleme. Die Welt ist korrupt geworden. Versicherungen zahlen nicht, und Banken liefern nicht. Viel Glück beim Silber fischen!


MfG, Die Nachteule

[Tsuba]

_________


Imoen, Du tust mir leid.

Was ist Dir widerfahren; daß

Du einfache Sachverhalte auf den Kopf stellst???


Immer noch respektvoll

Tsuba

[Magor]

Tsuba:
Unbekümmert posten, nach dem
Motto Apfelbäumchen pflanzen am Tag vor dem
Weltuntergang.

Das tust Du allerdings nur, da Du nicht weißt, daß er morgen schon da ist, der Weltuntergang ...

Ich bin recht erstaunt über die sture Enthaltsamkeit des Board-Mod´s, oder ist es als Argumentationslosigkeit zu werten?
Handhabe gibt es in dem Falle nur die eine ...
sich tatsächlich Alternativen zuwenden.

Wolf2001 sein Beitrag passt, wennauch zum wiederholten Male, wie die Faust auf´s Auge ...
welche Reaktion gab es damals darauf?

Silvo & Nachteule,
meine Mittel sind nicht ausgeschöpft, die Hoffnung nicht aufgegeben. Ich hatte das nur angeführt, um aufzuzeigen, daß die wahrscheinlich weltweite Kritik an der Funktion dieser Banken, und die vermehrte Angst der Anleger, die physische Ware jemals bekommen zu können, nun ihre erste Wirkung zeigt, und diese sich wie Aale nun winden, weil sie nicht einen Bruchteil der geshorteten Menge liefern können!
Meiner bescheidenen Kenntnis nach beurteilt, ist das erst der Anfang einer recht turbulenten Entwicklung, nach dessen Abschluss so einige dieser Shorter nur noch Geschichte sein werden ...
Ist es daher ein Wunder, daß sie sich in ihrer Vorahnung so winden ... ???

Grüße
Magor

[79Protonen]

Thaiguru postet jetzt im www.Goldseiten-forum.de !!!!

[superman6]

Unglaublich was hier mit thai-guru
abgelaufen ist.

Aber die echten Goldbugs lassen sich nícht
einschüchtern.

[superman6]

Falls einer noch Zeit und Geld hat, kann er ja
heute hier nochmal vorbeischauen.

Numismata,
München,
06.-07.03.2004


Vieleicht gibt es ja auch Barren, Krügerrands oder
Änhnl.
Achtet auch auf die 100er Gold Belgien und
20 und 50 Euro Vatikan. Aufl. 2002

Aufl. 2003 kann es noch werden.

Dieses waren mit die Tops bei den Sonder Euro
Goldmünzen.

[jeffery2]

Gefährlich wirds erst, wenn Ihr hier nicht mehr schimpfen dürft. Aber, das klappt doch noch!
Wir sitzen hier in einem kostenlosen Board herum und diskutieren, sind allerdings dem Wohlgefallen des Betreibers ausgesetzt.
Die Boardpolizei ist seine Polizei und nicht unsere, so iss dat nu mal.
J2

[niemandweiss]

letzter Beitrag

http://www.wallstreet-online.de/ws/community/board/threadpag…

[ulfur]

[niemandweiss]

Danke PolyMod - jetzt ist Thaiguru dran

"Thaiguru war nicht gesperrt. Meines Wissens hat er vor seiner Abmeldung keinen Kontakt mit einem MOD oder mit W:0 aufgenommen.
Ich fände es sehr bedauerlich, wenn W:0 wegen eines Missverständnisses einen kompetenten User verlieren würde.

Technische Probleme gibt es gelegentlich; auch mir geht es manchmal so, dass ich stundenweise nicht mehr posten kann.

Ich wäre Euch dankbar, wenn jemand mit Thaiguru redet und ihm empfiehlt, per e-mail in Kontakt mit W:0 zu treten, um evtl. technische Probleme abzuklären:"

[wolf2001]

#8883

Nein, jeffrey, es ist nicht deren Privat-Sache oder die deren `Board-Polizei`, dass sie einfach Meinungen unterdrücken können, wie sie wollen.
Das ist ja immerhin ein quasi-öffentlicher Raum und keine WO-Privatveranstaltung. Ich habe in Thread: Geschätzte Boardmoderatoren, - liebe Freunde des Goldaktienforums ... #67 dazu schon mal gemeint, dass ich es eher mit einem Supermarkt-Betreiber vergleiche, der auch nicht so einfach ihm unsympatische Kunden ausschliessen kann.
Ich und wahrscheinlich keiner der anderen User will jetzt die juristische Karte spielen. Aber okay finde ich sowas keineswegs.

Zu PolyMod:
Wenn sich das jetzt klärt, und alles tatsächlich nur "technische Schwierigkeiten" waren, freuen wir uns natürlich alle. Aber irgenwie komisch finde ich es schon, wie die ganze Sache sich entwickelt hat.
Nun, warten`s wir ab.

Gruß wolf

[Thoemsi]

#8888

[jeffery2]

@wolf, jeder Ladenbesitzer kann Kunden den Zutritt verbieten, ohne Angabe von Gründen.
Macht man natürlich nur wenn "Vorfälle" waren.
Etwas anderes zum Thai.
Leider ist dieser User keiner von der toleranten Sorte.
Jeder der ihm nicht passt bekommt eins auf den Deckel.
Öffentlich oder per BM, interessanterweise sperrt er den BM-Kontakt zu den so "zusammengestauchten" und verhindert eine interne Diskussion!!!
In den Postings wurde ich aufgefordert das Maul zu halten.
Das muss wohl bei jemanden so sein, der ein Guru sein will und sich hier anfangs mit seiner aufdringlichen Fettschreibe präsentierte und sich reichlich unbeliebt machte.
Fast alle älteren User sind von der Fahne gegangen.
Will jetzt nicht sagen, dass es schön wäre, wem auch immer, den Mund zu verbieten.
Allerdings mir fehlt der Narziss nicht, er kann auch kein Gold steigen lassen sondern nur schreiben wie er es gerne hätte.
Gegen steigende Gold und Silberpreise habe ich auch nichts, halte mich nur für etas realistischer.
Immerhin ist ja sein Thread hier und war ja auch immer recht engagiert und informativ, das werde ich doch nicht leugnen.
Schönen Sonntag noch J2

[wolf2001]

#8889
nein, Jeffrey, ein Ladenbesitzer kann das eben nicht "ohne Angaben von Gründen". Er käme (zu Recht) in Teufels Küche, würde er z.B. erklären, Moslems, Juden, Protestanten oder Scientologen dürften bei ihm nicht einkaufen.

Ich finde, jemandem in einem quasi- öffentlichen Forum wg. seiner Meinung das Wort zu verbieten, ist keine Lappalie.

Nun, wir wissen momentan einfach nicht genau, was los ist, aber wir werden sehen.

Zu deinem Kleinkrieg mit Thai kann und will ich jetzt ehrlich gesagt nichts sagen. Ich finde aber, das gehört jetzt wirklich nicht hierher.

Gruß wolf

[Tsuba]

"In den Postings wurde ich aufgefordert, das Maul zu halten."

Vornehm war das wirklich nicht. Nur direkt.

Dunkel erinnere ich vor Jahren eine ähnliche

Kontroverse mit Goldonly.

Merke: Genies sind sensibel. Wir nicht.

Tsuba

[Magor]

Das hast Du nett geschrieben Tsuba ...

Sicher ist Thai hier, in "Seinem Thread" auch schon mal ungerechtfertigt dem einen oder dem anderen über die Tasten gefahren ...
Das habe ich genausowenig gerne gesehen, wie so manche Beiträge eíniger Hirnies, die nicht nur ihn mit ihren Unverschämtheiten recht regelmäßig zur Weißglut brachten.

Die hier leider allzu häufig demonstrierten Niederungen der menschlichen Psyche sind irgendwie doch interessant ...

Wollen tun wir (fast?) alle das gleiche, nämlich Sicherheit finden für unsere Anlageentscheidungen!
Einander gegenseitig helfen, bei gleichen Interessen, wäre doch das logische, oder?
Anstatt darüber froh zu sein, daß der eine sich die Zeit nimmt, brauchbare Infos zusammenschaufeln, Recherchen zu betreiben und diese hier auch noch für die Allgemeinheit hereinzustellen, empfinden so manche dies, als ob ihnen jemand einen Zacken aus der Krone brechte!
Empfinden diese es als ein Herabsetzen ihrer eigenen Fähigkeiten, weil sie solche Kenntnisse und einen solchen Fleiß nicht aufbringen ... ?

Wie dem auch sei, ich halte viel von Thai´s Leistungen. Ihn zum Genie erheben, und ihm dafür Sensibilität zubilligen mag ich weniger, als Verständnis dafür aufzubringen, daß bei jemandem, der sich abrackert, angesichts doch vieler Anfeindungen die Nerven schon eher etwas blank liegen ...

Grüße
Magor

P.s.
Daß sich der Board-Mod in Person von PolyMod endlich geräuspert hat, finde ich gut! Allerdings frage ich mich, im Gegensatz zu Niemandweiß, ob bei der doch recht zweifelhaften Sachlage es nun wirklich alleine an Thai wäre sich jetzt freundlichst an PolyMod zu wenden um nachzufragen, ob WO etwas gegen ihn hätte und ob er denn doch noch weiterposten dürfte ...
Leider etwas verfahren die Kiste : - (
Nun müsste der eine oder der andere "Über seinen eigenen Schatten springen" ...

Thai würde ich hiermit gerne ermutigen dazu!

[faszination]

thaiguru hat keine zeit, er ist schwer beschäftigt mit posten bei www.goldseiten-forum.de

die miesmacher können nun ungestört hier weiterposten

[silvo]

Das war`s,


bei Goldseiten-Forum spielt ab sofort die "Musik"

[ulfur]

Thaigurus harsche Worte zu J2 sind m.E. nicht ungerechtfertigt, aber Wolf2001 hat recht, das gehört jetzt nicht hierher.

[einmalpleitereicht]

umfrage:
meint ihr wir sollten - nach thais abgang - diesen Thread jetzt sterben und im nirvana verschwinden lassen ??

[einmalpleitereicht]

ach ja,

ich denke schon. war halt thais geschicht und die spielt sich jetzt woanders ab.

wenn ihr auch so denkt, dann bitte Danksagungen bis Morgen 24.00 uhr abgeben - ab dann dann rutscht der Thread ins Boardnivana
-----------------------


Danke Thai !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!für Deine unermüdliche Arbeit

[Tsuba]

Goldonly, Sovereign, Thai


Was waren die Gemeinsamkeiten?









Apfelbäumchen pflanzen bis zuletzt.


Tsuba

[sterngleiter]

Hallo Thai,
das DU und einige wenige hier die absolute,qualitative
Le b e n s a d e r darstellen, dürfte doch klar

u n b e s t r i t t e n sein!!!!!
========================


Bleibt uns daher bitte -trotz einiger,total unbedeutender
Querulanten ohne qualitativen Hintergrund - weiterhin
mit Euren Superberichten und Eurer Tüchtigkeit erhalten!!!

[clelia]

Hallo zusammen,
habe die Story thai verfolgt.
das Goldboard verfolge ich regelmäßig seit 2 Jahren.
Sollte an der Story tatsächlich was dran sein, so muß der Thread natürlich sofort sterben, wahrscheinlich sollten dann alle zu goldseiten.de wechseln.
Ich überlege sowieso wallstreet-online gar nicht mehr zu besuchen.
Wie im richtigen Leben, Kunde ist König.

[goldmaki]

Danke Thai!

und -

never say never


goldmaki

[konradi]

@ tsuba

Goldonly, Sovereign, Thai
Was waren die Gemeinsamkeiten?

da gab es keine !

[ulfur]

[macvin]

@konradi

Genau: kein Vergleich zwischen GO, Sov und TG

PS: Nur Lemminge brauchen Gurus

[Tsuba]

______________


Interessante Frage, was waren die Gemeinsamkeiten

von GO, Sovereign und TG?


Nachprüfbar ist nur eine Antwort, die meßbare

Fakten nennt. Die sind meist schlicht:

Keiner versuchte wiederzukommen, nachdem er raus-

gedrängt war.


GO hab´ich sofort als herausragend angesehen.

Vieles las sich lapidar, war aber der Kern der Sache.


Sovereign schrieb für meinen Geschmack viel, zuviel.

Das hatte erstaunlicherweise alles Hand und Fuß.


Bei TG kann man einwenden, daß er "nur" das Netz nach

Goldinformationen scannt. Und die Fundstellen mit

einem penetranten Eifer "pro Gold" einstellt.

Hab´ich lange so gesehen.

Der ist aber derjenige, der wahrscheinlich

wie ein Seismometer anzeigt, wie stark

der Boden unter dem System bebt.

Das ist Geld wert, weil die "Erdstöße" immer heftiger

und die Abstände immer kürzer werden.


Es gibt eine Entwicklung in der genannten

Reihenfolge von einem zum nächsten.




Mir ist klar, daß ich mich mal wieder als Spinner

geoutet habe.


Gruss

Tsuba

[Gamsbichler]

@8905 Tsuba

Die Welt braucht Spinner. Bin auch so einer.

[sterngleiter]

Meine Güte,

seit dem Ausbleiben von THAI´S Berichten vermindert sich
dieses Gold-Form - in punkto sachl. Qualität - von
Minute zu Minute und Degradiert sich zu einer regelrechten
hintergrundlosen Schwätzerecke.

Da kann man den Bord-Verantwortlichen für diesen grandiosen
Erfolg nur noch gratulieren.

[Tsuba]

_________


Ohne schwätzen wäre der Bildschirm jetzt schon schwarz.

Laß´uns doch bis zuletzt den Spaß.


Tsuba

[Saludo]

!

Dieser Beitrag wurde vom System automatisch gesperrt. Bei Fragen wenden Sie sich bitte an [e-mail]

[Tsuba]

___________


was Thai geschrieben hat war gemessen an

dem bevorstehenden Zusammenbruch des Systems

ad usum delphini.

Er hat nur den "Fehler" gemacht Protagonisten

beim Namen zu rufen. (Den gleichen "Fehler"

machten auch GO und Sov).


Verrückte haben Narrenfreiheit


Tsuba

[silbernd]

...dann bleibst du uns hoffentlich noch lange erhalten
Finde Deine Beiträge immer wieder amüsant und anregend - oft schwanke ich zwischen einem fetten Grinsen und ernster Nachdenklichkeit!

[samy3110]

wer ist thai??

ist das sein nick? wo ist sein beitrag in diesem thread?
finde nix auf den letzten drei seiten

[bluemoons]

da findest du thai
umgezogen

http://www.goldseiten-forum.de/thread.php?threadid=308&page=…

[ludopata27]

Gut, dass Thai Guru nicht ganz verloren gegangen ist, d,h. eben eigentlich gar nicht.!!! Bei allem Abweichen von kurzfristig orientierten Gewinnen mit Derivaten, a la larga ist es wohl leider so wie Thai predigt: (und Sovereign z.B. und all die anderen: GOLDONLY!!!

[sterngleiter]

Hallo WO-Verantwortliche !!!

Es ist für die meisten Leser dieses Gold-Forums absolut
unverständlich wie qualitative Spitzenleute -speziell
Thai Guru u. andere - in diesem Forum gesperrt werden,
während andere dieses Forum mit stellenweise unzumut-
baren wie schwachsinnigen Berichten vollschmieren.

Im eigenen Geschäftsinteresse sollten daher die WO-Verant-
wortlichen schnellstens positiv handeln, da für qualita-
tiv anspruchsvolle Leser dieses Forum mittlerweile eine
Zumutung darstellt.

[Wavetrader]

Thaiguru wurde nicht gesperrt. Er hat seine Mitgliedschaft beendet und ich gehe davon aus, dass Thaiguru freiwillig gegangen ist. Technische Probleme lassen sich immer lösen, wenn ein User echtes Interesse daran hat, im WO-Board zu posten und wenn ihm die Forumsgemeinschaft hier wirklich etwas bedeutet.

Des Weiteren möchte ich an folgende Posting-Auszüge erinnern:

#3327 von ThaiGuru 16.12.02 01:49:18 Beitrag Nr.: 8.104.263 8104263
Aus diesem Grunde habe ich mich entschlossen Informationen zum Gold, und Wirtschaftsgeschehen, ab sofort, denjenigen die sich daran interessieren, per WO-Boardmail zu versenden.

#5628 von ThaiGuru 28.04.03 22:34:51 Beitrag Nr.: 9.295.276 9295276
Mit diesem Posting verabschiede ich mich vorübergehend vom WO-Gold Board. Brauch mal temporär etwas Abwechslung. Gold wird sicher auch ohne meine Anwesenheit hier im Thread weiter steigen.

#6899 von ThaiGuru 01.09.03 02:15:54 Beitrag Nr.: 10.608.292 10608292
Im WO-Board schreiben werde ich, ausser in Ausnahmesituationen, zukünftig wohl eher nicht mehr.

Die Bemerkung vom 28.04.03 war sicher nicht unberechtigt:

Nach 1. Abschied: Goldanstieg +50$ in der Spitze
Nach 2. Abschied: Goldanstieg +40$
Nach 3. Abschied: Goldanstieg +50$

Ich ziehe daher als derzeitiges Fazit, dass Thaigurus 4. Abschied (Goldstand 395$) aus Gründen erfolgt ist, die er uns verschweigt. Davon unbesehen möchte ich festhalten, dass sein Einsatz im Board über die News-Recherche hinausging - fundamentale Ansichten müssen allerdings nicht täglich wiederholt werden. Es gibt sogar Zusammenhänge, die müssen eigentlich nur ein einziges Mal beleuchtet werden, weil sie universell sind. Diese im täglichen Informationsgeflimmer ausfindig zu machen, ist die Arbeit, die mir kein User abnehmen kann.

[Sozzi]

Ein Jahrhundert US-amerikanischer Geostrategie in der Alten Welt
Staaten sind Gefangene der geographischen Bedingungen, in denen sie historisch erwachsen, sich entwickeln und existieren. Die "Insellage" der USA, die keinen Landweg der Kommunikation mit Eurasien, der Welt reichstem Lager an Ressourcen, besitzen, bestimmt den direkten Expansionismus der US-Außenpolitik. Seit 1823 war die "Monroe Doktrin" die ideologische Waffe zur Ausdehnung der US-Hegemonie in Nord- und Südamerika, und 1895 erklärte der US-Außenminister Richard Olney, in dem er sich auf die Monroe Doktrin bezog: "Auf diesem Kontinent sind die USA praktisch souverän, und was immer sie äußern, wird hier Gesetz."

Die USA setzten sich dann das Ziel, auch über die westliche Hemisphäre hinaus souverän zu werden, in dem sie die Ausweitung der Grenzen ihrer Expansion an der Wende vom 19. zum 20. Jahrhundert zur ersten Priorität machten. Ihren Pioniergeist, der sie bereits zur Landgewinnung und Vernichtung der dortigen Urbevölkerung hatte tief in den Westen ihres Kontinents vordringen lassen, übertrugen sie nun auf die ganze Welt.

Zb. Brzezinski meinte denn auch, daß bei einem geopolitischen Kampf der USA zur Dominierung Eurasiens die Verteidigungslinie der USA immer jenseits des Atlantiks liegen müsse (von uns aus gesehen also diesseits, auf europäischem Territorium!). 1997 schrieb Brzezinski in seinem Buch "The Grand Chess Board: American Primacy and its Geostrategic Imperatives", daß zwar in den letzten 500 Jahren das Zentrum der Weltherrschaft in Eurasien gelegen habe, daß aber in den letzten zehn Jahren des 20. Jahrhunderts eine tektonische Verschiebung in den internationalen Beziehungen eingetreten wäre: die eurasische Supermacht wäre zusammengebrochen, und die USA, ein nichteuropäischer Staat, zum Hauptschiedsrichter von Herschafts- und Unterwerfungsbeziehungen in Eurasien und erstmalig die einzige dominierende Macht, das "Herzstück" der Welt geworden. Die Niederlage und Auflösung der Sowjetunion wären die letzten Akte im Aufstieg der USA, des Staates der westlichen Hemisphäre, zur Position als einzige und wirkliche Weltmacht gewesen.

Diese Behauptung aber ist falsch, denn um "Herzstück" der Welt zu werden, fehlen den USA die wesentlichen Ressourcen. Eine hypothetische Welt mit dem amerikanischen Kontinent als "Herzstück" könnte nur eine Welt einer "goldenen Milliarde" (Menschen) sein, die die restlichen fünf Milliarden in ein soziales und wirtchaftliches Ghetto sperren. Die US-Elite ist sich darüber im klaren und strebt dennoch die "praktische Souveränität" im Weltmaßstab an. Das zwingt sie dazu, die Monroe Doktrin auf die östliche Hemisphäre auszudehnen. Grenzen waren in der US-amerikanischen Tradition niemals im europäischen Sinne bindende Staatsgrenzen, sondern eine Frontlinie, die kontinuierlich nach außen verschoben werden mußte.

Es handelt sich um eine unbegrenzte Ausdehnung der Macht, deren Hauptinstrument heute die Ost- und Südosterweiterung der NATO ist. Ohne die Kontrolle über Eurasien wäre die Vormachtstellung der USA ihrer geographischen "Randlage" wegen völlig unmöglich. Im Zusammenhang mit den Entwicklungen in den 90er Jahren betrachtet, ist es deutlich sichtbar, daß die NATO als ein militärisch-politischer Block der Nordatlantikstaaten dazu geschaffen worden war, eine komplexere Einrichtung zu sein als, sagen wir, eine mit dem Ende des Kalten Krieges aufzulösende Kampfmaschine. Die Sowjetunion hat aufgehört zu existieren, und dennoch dehnt sich die US - "Grenze" mittels der NATO weiter in andere Länder (Tschechien, Ungarn, Polen) und Territorien (Kosovo, Südserbien) aus, Gebiete, die, um es deutlich zu sagen, nichts mit dem nordatlantischen Gebiet noch mit der bekannten "transatlantischen Gemeinschaft" zu tun haben.

Im Hinblick auf die "humanitären Interventionen", die die USA im Irak, in Somalia, Bosnien und Jugoslawien durchgeführt haben, sowie im Lichte der mittels der Talibanbewegung (ins Leben gerufen durch die Geheimdienste der USA, Saudi-Arabiens und Pakistans) veranlaßten Konvertierung Afghanistans in ein Zentrum des internationalen Terrorismus, im Hinblick darauf, daß die USA den Kaukasus und das Becken des Kaspischen Meeres zu Sphären ihrer vitalen Interessen erklärt haben, wird die Bedeutung des "Kalten Krieges" nachträglich sehr klar.

Der "Kalte Krieg" war der Kampf gegen Eurasien mit dem Ziel, auf dem Großen Kontinent die Existenz eines Staates oder einer Konföderation von Staaten zu verhindern, die stark genug wären, ihre Ressourcen gegen eine ungehinderte Aneignung durch die überseeische "Konsumentenzivilisation" zu verteidigen. Dieser Krieg geht weiter, und offensichtlich liegen die entscheidenden Schlachten noch vor uns.

Heute sind sich die Regierungen der CIS-Staaten noch nicht ausreichend bewußt, daß die USA der historische Gegner eines jeden starken und unabhängigen Staates in Eurasien sind. Der bekannte "Kampf gegen den Kommunismus" war nichts als der ideologische Vorwand für die USA, sein propagandistisches Aushängeschild für den anderen Kampf, die Supermacht in Eurasien zu zerstören. 1986 machte Zb. Brzezinski dazu ein bemerkenswertes Eingeständnis. So paradox es erscheinen mag, schrieb er, daß der Kommunismus in Rußland eine Segnung wäre, weil der Kommunismus das begabte und ausdauernde russische Volk in einem System gefangen hielte, das die Nation strangulierte und sein Stärke und sein großes Potential nicht zum Tragen kommen ließe. Welch ein bemerkenswertes und belehrendes Eingeständnis!

So, wie die Ideologen des US-Expansionismus einst den Kommunismus gepriesen haben, preisen sie heute eine transkontinentale geopolitische Gemengelage, die fähig wäre, die Völker der ehemaligen Sowjetunion an ihrer nationalen Wiedergeburt und ihrer ihnen gemäßen souveränen Entwicklung zu hindern. Es ist sehr bezeichnend, daß wir in Zb. Brzezinskis Buch "Game Plan" (1986) Abschnitte finden können, die uns heute die Bedeutung einiger neuerer Phänomene erklären, beispielsweise die NATO - Osterweiterung. Schon 1986 hat Z.B. Brzezinskis Szenarien über die Bedeutung der NATO-Erweiterung bis hin zu den Westgrenzen der Sowjetunion entworfen, und er hat den direkten Zusammenhang interner Destabilisierung mit einer solchen Entwicklung aufgezeigt, deren Ergebnis der Abzug der sowjetischen Truppen aus Mitteleuropa und die Neutralisierung der Bereitschaft des Kreml wäre, seine Macht zu verteidigen. Die von außen geschürte und ermutigte Erwartung der nicht-rusischen Bevölkerungsteile sollte das Hauptinstrument der Destabilisierung des eurasischen Staates sein. Er erwähnte in seinem Buch entscheidende europäische und asiatische Staaten, über die Kontrolle ausgeübt werden müßte, um die geopolitische Stabilität großer Regionen entweder zu festigen oder, im Gegenteil, zu zerstören. Für ihn waren solche Staaten Polen und Deutschland, im Westen, Südkorea und die Philippinen, im Fernen Osten, "entweder Iran oder eine Kombination von Afghanistan und Pakistan", im Süden. Für Zb. Brzezinski war die südliche Frontlinie dabei von besonderer Bedeutung, da die Benutzung und Förderung der sunnitischen islamischen Extremisten gegen den Kommunismus und gleichermaßen gegen das schiitische Iran Moskau am teuersten würde zu stehen kommen. Was Pakistan anging, so hatte dessen Geheimdienst noch größere Pläne, nämlich die Erlangung der Kontrolle über Afghanistan, um mittels der Unterstützung des sunnitischen Islam den Durchbruch nach Zentralasien zu schaffen.

Die Geheimdienste der USA, Pakistans und Saudi-Arabiens begannen mit der Durchsetzung dieses Planes etwa ab 1984, in dem Tausende von islamischen Soldaten vom Mittleren Osten nach Afghanistan geschleust wurden. Zu erwähnen ist dabei, daß nach dem Ende der Sowjetunion keiner der von den USA in den strategischen Drehpunkten Zentral- und Südasiens eingerichteten militärischen Stützpunkte aufgegeben wurde, genauso wenig wie die NATO, im Westen Eurasiens. Die großangelegte Sabotage- und Terrorismusmaschinerie wurde auf neue Aufgaben hin umorientiert, auf die militärische und wirtschaftliche Schwächung des geostrategischen Zentrums von Eurasien.

Dennoch erreichten die USA ihr Hauptziel nicht, die territoriale und politische Kontrolle über die weiten Regionen Eurasiens auszuüben. Die kürzlich entstandenen unabhängigen Staaten Eurasiens sind nicht zu "Pufferstaaten" geworden, deren Schaffung für eine langfristige Offensive gegen ihren Hauptgegener auf dem Kontinent unabdingbar für die US-Geopolitik wäre. Diese Geopolitik ist heute veraltet. Die Bezeichnung "Transatlantische Gemeinschaft"ist der zunehmend problematischen Versuche der USA zur Beibehaltung ihres "militärischen Protektorates" in Europa wegen ein Euphemismus. Der 1999 geführte Balkankrieg, bei dem die wirtschaftlichen und ökologischen Folgekosten den Europäern aufgehalst wurden, gab den Impuls zur Formierung einer Europäischen Eingreiftruppe, die weder Washington noch dem NATO - Hauptquartier unterstellt sein wird. Der zweite Bereich der Widersprüche zwischen den USA und der EU hängt mit dem Wettbewerb der beiden Referenzwährungen Dollar und Euro zusammen. Der wichtigste Bereich der Widersprüche aber ist die zwischen Nordamerika und Westeuropa unterschiedliche Lage im Hinblick auf einen Kampf um die rasch weniger werdenden natürlichen Ressourcen dieses Planeten, vor allem um Erdöl- und Erdgaslager.

Hier ist die Ausganslage der USA, die dabei die Weltvormachtstellung für sich beanspruchen, weitaus weniger hervorragend, als es aussehen mag. Gemäß einem statistischen Bericht von "British Petroleum Amoco", von 1999, gibt es in den USA noch weniger als drei Milliarden Tonnen Erdöl, die für ungefähr achteinhalb Jahre ausreichen werden, wenn die jetzige Ausbeute von 370 Millionen Tonnen jährlich beibehalten wird. Gegenwärtig importieren die USA jährlich 500 Millionen Tonnen Erdöl. Die USA haben der Welt höchst kraftstoffverbrauchende Wirtschaft, deren Abhängigkeit vom Erdölimport 50 Prozent überstiegen hat und die weiter anwächst. US - Experten sagen selbst, daß sich die USA in einer Falle befinden, auf Billigimporte von Erdöl angewiesen zu sein. Die Lage für Erdgas ist noch alarmierender. Die Vorkommen in den USA reichen bei Beibehaltung der jetzigen Wirtschaftsentwicklung in den USA noch für ungefähr sechs bis sieben Jahre. Um nur den jetzigen Stand der Wirtschaft beizubehalten, von einem Wirtschaftswachstum einmal abgesehen, werden die USA zukünftig 1,4 Milliarden Tonnen Erdöl im Jahr importieren müssen. Das ist mehr, als die gesamte restliche Welt gegenwärtig jährlich verbraucht (ca. 1,2 Milliarden Tonnen), was bredeuten würde, daß für die anderen Großimporteuere nichts mehr übrig bleiben würde.

All das erklärt, warum die USA, unter welchen Kosten auch immer, die größtmögliche Zahl von Ölquellen kontrollieren wollen. Ein unerbittlicher Kampf, sie auszubeuten, mag in der Zukunft ausbrechen, wenn sie alle zu Zonen des strategischen US - Interesses erklärt worden sind.

Das alles zwingt die direkt von der US-amerikanischen Expansion betroffenen eurasischen Staaten, für die ihre Souveränität kein zu veräußerndes Gut ist, ein sich ständig erneut anpassendes Verhalten gegenüber den USA zu entwickeln und politische Allianzen zu bilden, um ihre natürlichen Ressourden zu schützen und zu erhalten.

Transcaspian.ru



Autor: Wladimir Maximenko, Leitender Wissenschaftlicher Mitarbeiter am Institut für orientalische Studien der russischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
Moskau, den 24.4.2001
Übersetzung: Dr. Gudrun Eußner
Quelle: © Philosophischer Salon, Berlin
www.kalaschnikow.de
Update: Berlin, Do., 03.05.2001

[Kanzler-neu]

Die Wiederkehr des Goldes steht vor der Tür
Das Edelmetall ist stärkster Profiteur der amerikanischen Inflationspolitik

von Stefan Schilbe

Der Schuldenberg der Vereinigten Staaten wächst und wächst. Private Haushalte, Unternehmen und Staat stehen inzwischen mit 34 400 Mrd. Dollar in der Kreide. Dies entspricht mehr als dem Dreifachen der US-Wirtschaftsleistung und stellt einen historischen Rekord dar. Selbst in der Depression der dreißiger Jahre lag die Schulden/BIP-Relation mit 287 Prozent deutlich niedriger. Kalkuliert man nur mit einem durchschnittlichen Zinssatz von fünf Prozent, müssen jährlich Zinsen von über 1700 Mrd. US-Dollar bezahlt werden. Rund ein Siebtel der jährlichen Wirtschaftsleistung wird also allein für die Zinszahlung aufgewendet!

Wie lässt sich dieses Problem lösen? Der günstigste Weg wäre hohes Realwachstum ohne neue Schulden. Die Chancen für eine solche Lösung sind jedoch gering. Gerade seit Mitte der neunziger Jahre, die allgemein mit hohen Wachstumsraten assoziiert werden, hat sich die Verschuldung deutlich erhöht. Für jeden Dollar Wirtschaftswachstum wurden im Schnitt gut vier Dollar neue Schulden gemacht. Befördert wurde dies durch die extrem niedrigen Zinsen. Ohne den Willen, neue Schulden zu machen, können die privaten Haushalte ihren exzessiven Lebensstandard nicht aufrechterhalten. Schließlich ist die Sparquote mit weniger als zwei Prozent weit gehend verdampft, nachdem sie im Jahr 1992 noch acht Prozent betrug. Da wiederum die gesamte Expansion der US-Volkswirtschaft seit Anfang 2000 vom Konsum getragen wurde, würde eine Schwäche des privaten Konsums das Wachstum abwürgen.

Alternativ könnten die US-Bürger ihr Sparverhalten anpassen. Die mit dem Konsumverzicht verbundenen Wachstumseinbußen sind allerdings politisch unerwünscht, da sie das Problem der Arbeitslosigkeit verschärfen. Gleichzeitig würde eine Rückzahlung der Schulden die disinflationären Tendenzen verschärfen und im Extremfall sogar in eine Deflation münden. Das favorisierte Szenario besteht offenbar in einer Inflationierung der Volkswirtschaft. Über das höhere nominale Wachstum und die damit verbundenen Steigerungen der Löhne, Unternehmensgewinne und Steuereinnahmen lassen sich die Schulden leichter bedienen, so die Überlegung.

Die expansive Geldpolitik der US-Notenbank Fed hat bereits zu einer dramatischen Erhöhung des Dollar-Angebotes geführt. Ein Gedankenspiel verdeutlicht dies: Ende der siebziger Jahre war die umlaufende Geldmenge bei Goldpreisen von 400 Dollar pro Unze vollständig durch den Fed-Goldschatz unterlegt. Wollte die US-Notenbank die inzwischen explodierte Geldmenge vollständig durch ihren seither unveränderten Goldbestand - rund 8150 Tonnen - decken, müsste jede Unze Gold mit über 2300 Dollar bewertet sein.

Langfristig dürfte damit vor allem eine Asset-Klasse von der US-Schuldenpolitik profitieren: das Gold. Bei einer Wiederkehr der Inflation nach dem Muster der siebziger Jahre wäre das gelbe Metall ein geeigneter Schutz. In einer volkswirtschaftlichen Extremsituation wie der jetzigen sollte das gelbe Metall also in keinem Portfolio fehlen.

Stefan Schilbe, Chefvolkswirt bei HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt

Artikel erschienen am 20. März 2004

[Nevadabob]

What`s very interesting is that Gold is now starting to move
against all currencies, which could portend the start of the next
leg of the bull (market) in Gold.

Here`s some charts showing exactly that.
I get more and more questions from Euro-investors about GOLD-stocks.
Healthy indicator, imo. MfG Nevadabob

Charts of GoldGram Exchange Rates
Amount of national currency per one GoldGram,
daily New York market close.























PS. Remember the Eurasia Gold Corp opportunity
www.eurasiagold.com

[wolf2001]

!

Dieser Beitrag wurde vom System automatisch gesperrt. Bei Fragen wenden Sie sich bitte an [e-mail]

[Tsuba]

_____

In einem anderen Board las ich von jemand,

dessen Beitrag hier gelöscht wurde oder

vielleicht auch gesperrt. Das kann und will

ich nicht klären.

Der Betreffende moniert, dass ihn sowenige

verbal unterstützen.

Das kann man so sehen. Der Standpunkt ist aber

idealistisch oder altruistisch.

So etwas passt nicht mehr in die Zeit.


Solange kein schwarzer Balken von links

unten bis rechts oben durch den Thread

geht, handelt es sich um ein technisches Problem.

Das ist die neue Zeit. Es ist so.

Das hat Ursachen und es hat Wirkungen.

Zu den Wirkungen gehört, daß Derivate Thema Nr. 1

geworden sind. Und wer schreibt, daß

um x>Uhr 30 der HUI sein Wellental durch-

schreitet bei xyz Punkten, der hat auch kein

nachhaltiges technisches Problem mit der EDV.


Gruss

Tsuba

der hier viel gelernt hat, wovon er vorher

garnichts wußte.

[ulfur]

[Thoemsi]

@ Tsuba

Mit Derivaten wird nur gespielt, also ein bischen gezockt
Die richtige Ernte fährt man mit den GM ein

So sehe ich das jedenfalls

[kaepntnemo]

@Tsuba
#8917
> der hier viel gelernt hat, wovon er vorher garnichts wußte.

absolut zutreffend auch fuer mich. und dennoch glaube ich, wird`s mich bald auf die andere seite ziehen...

-nemo-

[ulfur]

Das letzte Posting von wolf2001 ist auch verschwunden.

Schlimm - die technischen Probleme

[superman6]

Eigenartierweise gibt es nur im Goldboard technische
Probleme.

Gerade wo wir auf einem mehrjährigen Top sind.

Die Rohstoffpreise liegen auf 20 Jahres-Top.


An thai-guru

ich könnte mir vorstellen, dass du hier nochmal ab
und zu hereinschaust.

Beobachte die Sache mit Cambrian und Investika.
Wird demnächst echt spannend.
(Deegpreen M. eingeschlossen).

Evtl. schau mal im Australien Board nach.

[Nevadabob]

Don`t miss out on EGX - Eurasia Gold Corp

If you missed out on TASR


Don`t miss out on EGX - Eurasia Gold Corp
The Eurasia Gold Corp Shares


Eurasia Gold Corp. symbol EGX @ the Toronto Venture Exchange
http://www.tse.com/HttpController?GetPage=QuotesViewPage&Det…

info: http://www.ivarkreuger.com/gold.htm

imo, Best regards, MfG

[bmann025]

@8922

[Sozzi]

Galilei, Luther, Thai Guru


- als Galilei geboren worden drehte sich die Sonne um die Erde, als er starb drehte sich die Erde um die Sonne; wurde verbrannt als Ketzer, weil Machtinhaber der Erde Angst hatten ihre Machtposition zu verlieren

- es war nicht einmal vor knapp 500 Jahren her als die Menschen begannen sich aus Ihrer Verknechtung zu lösen…am 31.10.1517 schlug ein gewisser Herr Luther ein paar Thesen an eine Kirchtür…alles weitere nahm seinen Lauf und eine neue Weltordnung entstand

- Anfang des 21.Jhd. stürzt das Kartenhaus aus Falschheit, Lüge und Volksverdummung zusammen…durch das Massenkommunikationsmittel Internet erfolgt eine Befreiung des Geistes der Menschen, die bisher durch den Faktor Zinsen und Arbeit unterjocht worden

[Tsuba]

_____
Sozzi

-Galilei wurde nicht verbrannt.
Er hat abgeschworen.

-Luther hat zu keiner Befreiung beigetragen.
Das führte nur zu einem eigenen Club.

-.....wir sibd die Eingeborenen von Trizonesien,
Ei de Schiberara, Schibera Bum

(Karl Berbuer 1946)



Gruss

Tsuba

[bum]

@tsuba

klasse zitat.endlich mal einer der auch gerne in groesseren zeitlichen dimensionen unser leben analysiert.
alles beginnt mit hell und dunkel und endet auch da.dazwischen liegen nur ein paar millionen jahre farbiger mischmasch.alles nur ne frage die schoenen farben zu finden und zu geniessen so lange sie da sind.gold ist zwar schoen aber nur gold ist auch langweilig und wenn schon dann ist es auch nur schoen wenns an der richtigen frau haengt,weswegen ich physisches gold bevorzuge.

[valueinvestor]

Ich bin dafür, daß Leute technische Probleme bekommen sollten, die 200 mal pro Woche "Schaut euch mal Investika an" posten.

[hpoth]

O.K. dem ist nichts mehr zu zufügen.
mfg hpoth

[EAW]

Von 16 INDIZES sind:

AE = Aktuellen-Einschätzung + Positiv - Negativ

4. –-
2. +-
5. -+
5. ++

Plus Gedanken: Nicht nur zu Ostern

s. #1 bei
http://www.wallstreet-online.de/ws/community/board/threadpag…

[marc22]

#8928

ihr habt selber schuld:

wenn ich hier noch mal das wort investika lese,
dann klicke ich diesen thread nicht mehr an.

[Tsuba]

________

Bei Spiegel-Online gibt es einen Artikel,

wie die ZB die Geschäftsbanken anleitet

und überwacht. Am Beispiel Welteke und

der Dresdner Bank.

Aufschlußreich für jeden.


Gruß

Tsuba

[Tsuba]

!

Dieser Beitrag wurde vom System automatisch gesperrt. Bei Fragen wenden Sie sich bitte an [e-mail]

[bum]

und bei der wset lb gings um richtig kohle,nicht so ein paar laeppische euro fuers adlon.der rest der welt lacht sich ueber deutschland diesbezueglich eh nen ast.

allein schon dieses unwort vorteilsnahme.natuerlich isses fuer ein land von vorteil,wenn sich seine politiker und andere schmarotzer um vorteile fuer ihr land oder fuer unternehmen bemuehen und dafuer sogar sylvester opfern,um zu arbeiten(kassieren).

[Tsuba]

________

bezeichnenderweise ist es bei Dresdner und

WestLB (wg. des Unternehmensefolgs) egal,

ob dies als Betriebsausgabe oder verdeckte

Gewinnausschüttung in die FiBu eingeht.


Tsuba

[jeffery2]

Mädels und Jungs, nun geht Ihr ja wohl einem schönen Nebenkriegsschauplatz auf den Leim
Da pupt der W. auf Kosten der Bank im Adlon die Betten voll, das ist ein Wahnsinnsskandal!! Und bei der SPD isser auch noch!!
Hier fliegt einem die Welt um die Ohren und uns wird dieser Vorfall wie Hundefutter vorgeworfen, damit wir was zu schnattern haben.
Der Ackermann und Spiessgesellen zeigen Euch das Victoryzeichen, die Leute, die Millarden an der Ausschlachtung der DDR verdient haben, die Aktionäre lang gemacht haben usw. kichern sich eins und machen ne Pulle auf,
sie haben jetzt den Welteke an den Flicken, wie schön das ablenkt.
Die Beziehungen von W. und den Banken hängen doch nicht davon ab ob er mal auf deren Kosten pennt.
J2

[konradi]

Dein knochentrockener Sarkasmus hat es mal wieder auf den Punkt gebracht, Jeffery !

[ulfur]

Selbstverständlich werden Beziehungen durch Geschenke freundlich gestaltet.

Die Bundesbank wirkt bei der Bankenaufsicht mit, während der Bundbankpräsident Geschenke von einer zu beaufsichtigenden Bank entgegennimmt (Buba: "Die Bundesbank übernimmt mit dieser Einigung zum ganz überwiegenden Teil die operative Bankenaufsicht")

Es ist auch kein Nebenschauplatz. Die Bundesbank ist eine der letzten Institutionen, die noch ein hohes Ansehen hat. Welteke ist dabei, diesen Ruf zu beschmutzen. Ein in den Ruch der Bestechlichkeit befindlicher Bundesbankpräsident - wer hätte das vor kurzem für möglich gehalten.

Der erneute Skandal lenkt keineswegs von Ackermann, Esser etc ab, sondern vervollständigt auf schönste das Bild einer moralisch verkommenen Oberklasse, die Beschränkungen der Arbeitnehmer fordert, aber selbst an den Freßtrögen den Schlund nicht voll genug kriegt.

[konradi]

Ulfur, das "Bild einer moralisch verkommenen Oberklasse" lässt sich immer prächtig "verkaufen" – z.B. von der "Bild" oder auf den Demotransparenten in Berlin. - Es bleibt immer zu fragen: Cui bono ?

Jeffery hat das erkannt: Der "W.-Fauxpas" ist nur ein Nebenkriegsschauplatz, der von den wirklichen Sauereinen ablenkt !

[konradi]

und sieh da, schon fängt die Wurstmaschine an sich zu drehen ….

…Welteke selbst hat mit der Luxus-Einladung wenig Probleme. Auf einem Treffen der Finanzminister und Notenbankchefs in der Nähe von Dublin verteidigte er sich: "Wenn ich an einer Veranstaltung eines Dritten teilnehme, dann gehe ich auch davon aus, dass von dem die Kosten übernommen werden." Er habe die Dresdner-Bank-Veranstaltung vor allem wegen des Symbolwerts der Bundeshauptstadt gewählt. Auf der Feier zur Einführung des Euro war auch Bundesfinanzminister Hans Eichel zugegen und natürlich der ehemalige Dresdner-Bank-Chef Bernd Fahrholz.

Der Bundesbankpräsident vermutet, dass die Informationen gezielt von der hessischen Landesregierung lanciert wurden. Als ehemaliger hessischer Finanzminister sei er "sehr betroffen" über den Vorgang, sagte er am Wochenende. Die hessische Landesregierung reagierte empört auf diese Vermutung. "Herr Welteke täte gut daran, sein offenkundiges Problem zu lösen und nicht solche Behauptungen nachzuplappern", sagte Regierungssprecher Dirk Metz.

http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/0,1518,294070,00.html

[ulfur]

Es ist doch nun wirklich nicht das Hauptproblem, wer die Meldung lanciert hat, ob Koch dahintersteckt oder nicht.

Der frühere CDU-Generalsekretär Geisler hat in einer n-tv Sendung berichtet, daß ein früherer Bundeswehrbeschaffer, in den 50er Jahren gekündigt wurde, weil er sich von Heckler & Koch eine Übernachtung im Wert von 7,80 hat sponsern lassen.

Die Verluderung der Sitten scheint auch die Bundesbank erreicht zu haben.

[ulfur]

Aus der FTD vom 6.4.2004 www.ftd.de/muenchau
Kolumne: Ein miserabler Notenbanker
Von Wolfgang Münchau

Ernst Welteke fehlt es an Integrität, Urteilsvermögen und intellektueller Brillanz.

Es gab Zeiten in Deutschland, da hätte kein Hahn danach gekräht, ob irgendein hoher Beamter von einer Bank zu einem üppigen Fest eingeladen wird. Wenn es allen gut geht, verzeiht man schnell. In schlechten Zeiten aber reagieren die Menschen anders. Genau das ist der Grund, warum Politiker und Beamte im Zweifel eher vorsichtig sein sollten, wenn es um die Annahme von Geschenken und Zuwendungen jeglicher Art geht. Im Zweifel zahlt man dann besser selbst. Auf jeden Fall aber sollte man selbst vermeiden, dass irgendwelche Missverständnisse auftreten können.

Ich kann nicht beurteilen, ob Bundesbankpräsident Ernst Welteke sich irgendetwas hat rechtlich zu Schulden kommen lassen, als er Silvester 2001/2002 mit Familie und Anhang in das Hotel Adlon reiste und sich eine Rechnung von über 7000 Euro von der Dresdner Bank bezahlen ließ. Aus ethischer Sicht ist die Sache allerdings eindeutig: Der Bundesbankpräsident darf nicht einmal den Eindruck der Bestechlichkeit erwecken. Sich von einer Bank einen privaten Urlaub bezahlen zu lassen ist ein ungeheuerlicher Fehltritt.

Der Vorwurf, den man Welteke machen kann, ist der fehlenden Urteilsvermögens. Es ist der schlimmste Vorwurf überhaupt, den man einem Notenbanker machen kann. Deutschland befindet sich seit drei Jahren in der Nähe des Nullwachstums. Die Arbeitslosigkeit ist hoch. Die Banken haben die mittelständischen Kredite gekürzt, und das Land ist als Ganzes bescheidener geworden. Kurzum, es ist die denkbar schlechteste Zeit für demonstrativ zur Schau gestellten Luxus.

Berechtigte Zweifel an der Integrität

Wenn ein Bundesbankchef die öffentliche Meinung derart schlecht einschätzen kann, fragt man zu Recht, ob er die wirtschaftliche Lage oder die komplexen Konsequenzen für die Geldpolitik besser beurteilt. Der Blick aus dem Hotel Adlon - und erst recht der Blick in das Hotel Adlon - sind dazu denkbar ungeeignet. In der Silvesternacht der Euro-Einführung ging es mit der Wirtschaft schon steil bergab.

Wofür bezahlt die Bundesrepublik dem Präsidenten der Bundesbank ein Gehalt von 350.000 Euro pro Jahr? Doch nur, weil man seine Integrität, seinen Sachverstand und sein Urteilsvermögen schätzt. So hofft man etwa, dass Welteke kompetent genug ist, um im Rat der Europäischen Zentralbank, dem er als Bundesbankchef angehört, die richtigen Zinsentscheidungen zu treffen. Und man hofft, dass er zur Verwendung der nationalen Goldreserven einen weisen Vorschlag im Interesse des Staates unterbreiten kann.

Welteke hat sich leider als ein schwacher Notenbanker entpuppt, zumindest im Vergleich mit seinen großen deutschen Vorgängern Karl Otto Pöhl oder Hans Tietmeyer. Ihn kümmerten die Interessen des Staates bislang weniger als die partikulären Machtinteressen der Bundesbank - egal ob es um die Frage der Bankaufsicht oder die Streitfrage um die Goldreserven ging. Welteke ist seinem großen Amt nie gerecht geworden. Er verfügt weder über großen ökonomischen Sachverstand, noch strahlt er vor intellektueller Brillanz. In der europäischen geldpolitischen Debatte spielt der deutsche Notenbanker keine ausschlaggebende Rolle. All das wäre noch in Ordnung, wenn er zumindest über persönliche Integrität verfügte. Genau daran aber kommen jetzt berechtigte Zweifel auf.

Gefährdete Unabhängigkeit

Vor Jahren sagte einmal Jacques Delors, der ehemalige Präsident der Europäischen Kommission, die Franzosen glaubten an Gott, die Deutschen an die Bundesbank. Das mag zwar übertrieben gewesen sein, aber es ist etwas Wahres dran. Die Zentralbank genießt in Deutschland ein Ansehen wie in kaum einem anderen Land. Welteke hat mit seinem Verhalten nun nicht nur den Glauben der Deutschen erschüttert, vor allem hat er der Bundesbank selbst großen Schaden zugefügt. Schließlich ist die Unabhängigkeit einer Zentralbank in einer Demokratie keine Selbstverständlichkeit. Sie kann es nur geben, solange die Menschen dieser Zentralbank vertrauen.

Wenn dieses Vertrauen schwindet, ist die Unabhängigkeit sogar hochgradig gefährlich, denn Unabhängigkeit bedeutet gerade, dass man diese Leute nicht loswird. Das wiederum verpflichtet die Mitarbeiter zu einem Höchstmaß an Integrität. Wenn sie sich auf die Standards korrupter Politiker herablassen, dann brauchen sie sich nicht zu wundern, dass die Öffentlichkeit irgendwann einmal ihre Unabhängigkeit in Frage stellt. Die Gremien der Bundesbank sind jetzt in der Pflicht, in Bezug auf die Personalie Welteke die richtigen Entscheidungen zu treffen.

Es gibt momentan eine Reihe wichtiger Debatten in der europäischen Geldpolitik, in der Deutschland eine führende Rolle spielen sollte, dies allerdings bislang nicht tut. Jetzt kommt noch dazu, dass unser Repräsentant bei der Europäischen Zentralbank damit beschäftigt sein wird, zunächst seinen persönlichen Ruf zu verteidigen.

Die Bundesbank war bis vor kurzem eine der großen Institutionen Deutschlands und Europas. Mit Beginn der Währungsunion hat sie an Macht verloren. Dieser Macht- und vor allem der Ansehensverlust hat sich unter der Führung Weltekes rasant beschleunigt. Heute würde man jungen Menschen nicht mehr raten, für die Bundesbank zu arbeiten. Die EZB ist der bessere Arbeitgeber. Der Adlon-Skandal wird den Ansehensverlust der Bundesbank nun weiter beschleunigen.

[jeffery2]

Aha, 7,80 von Heckler und Koch!!
Strauss kauft eine untaugliche Flugmaschine, die die amerikanische Luftwaffe nicht geschenkt haben möchte, als Superflieger ein, macht damit eine Kunstflugstaffel auf, Krach bumm da waren die erst mal tot, die vielen , vielen anderen Abstürze noch als Kompott, einmal Jan Mansfield zum Anfassen, und dann noch ein Staatsbegräbnis. die Schmuseparty mit dem Tegernseer DDR-Pension-r nur kurz erwähnt. usw.usw..Siehe die div. Spiegelartikel in dieser Angelegenheit.
Jetzt kommt mir einer mit 7,80. Was ist eigenlich mit Liechtensteiner Konten geworden.....?
Na ja, ist schon schwierig die ganze Polletik

[macvin]

Die EZB ist der bessere Arbeitgeber. Der Adlon-Skandal wird den Ansehensverlust der Bundesbank nun weiter beschleunigen.

Wie ist das eigentlich mit der FED. Kann man einem jungen Menschen eigentlich noch raten, da zu arbeiten...an der Gelddruckmaschine

[jeffery2]

und unter Deinem Posting steht, die Jombmaschine in den usa läuft wieder.
Hier ist ja wirklich Kabarett vom Feinsten.
J2
P.S. der Gelddrucker ist doch sicher ein guter Beruf, in Deutschland sind die alle in der Gewerkschaft und werden gut bezahlt.

[jeffery2]

Schon wieder weg, die Anzeige, jetzt guckt der "blinde Sänger" Onischka hier aus der Wäsche.
J2

[macvin]

Der Gelddrucker ist doch sicher ein guter Beruf, in Deutschland sind die alle in der Gewerkschaft und werden gut bezahlt.

Und jetzt wird erst mal die Arbeitszeit verlängert....

Schaun wer mal, was rauskommt....