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Platz | vorher | Wertpapier | Kurs | Perf. % | Anzahl | ||
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7. | 6. | 12,258 | +0,91 | 44 | |||
8. | 5. | 0,1920 | -2,04 | 43 |
Die Royal Bank of Canada vertritt bei den Anlegern
die Meinung, dass es mit Gold nicht weit her ist.
Ein interner Bericht (aus dem Board von Thai-Guru)
sagt hier aber etwas anderes.
Was glaubt ihr, wenn die von mir erwartete kurze
Widerstandslinie von rd. 330 Dollar durchbrochen wird,
was dann noch alles kommt??
RBC Global Investment Management Inc., a
division of Royal Bank of Canada, whose gold
mutual fund is among the best performing in
the world, has issued a report to private clients
that fully endorses GATA`s analysis of the
gold market and the world economy.
Don`t worry -- GATA hasn`t gone establishment.
To the contrary, the establishment in the gold
world is coming around to our central premise:
that central banks and particularly the U.S.
Treasury Department have been colluding
surreptitiously and desperately to suppress the
gold price and manipulate the gold market.
The RBC Global Investment Management report
seems to have been written by someone who has
been following GATA`s work closely, taking notes,
and checking out our assertions. It`s more evidence
that, because of your support, we`re making a big
difference for the gold cause.
The report was sent to GATA this week by an
intermediary and is appended here.
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
* * *
RBC GLOBAL INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INC.
Report on Gold
Clearly, with gold stocks on a tear as the gold
price moves laboriously forward battling the
fervent attempts to suppress it, one must be
comfortable with the notion that the gold price
is going to overcome the forces that are aligned
against it. What is happening today is no different
than what was happening in the late `60s and the
very early `70s, when the Gold Pool was in
existence and the gold price was contained at
$35 per oz. by a consortium of central banks
that dumped a considerable amount of gold to
keep prices down. Today, instead of the overt
action of yesteryear, it is covert because the
market is allegedly free, and it has entailed a
different mechanism, which has resulted in a
humongous physical short position. In addition,
there has been an enormous amount of
derivatives piled on top, which could make the
ultimate upside explosion all the more spectacular.
So the question obviously is: "Will the gold rally
ever begin?" The following arguments emphatically
suggest that it will more than rally; it will explode to
the upside.
1.Unsustainable Supply/Demand Imbalance
Mine production has flattened out at 2,600 tonnes and
is beginning to fall due to a lack of exploration, falling
grade at many mines due to previous high-grading,
and the closing of older mines as they run out of ore.
It has been estimated by Beacon & Associates in an
exhaustive study that if gold prices were to remain
under $300/oz., production will fall in the neighborhood
of 25% over the next 5 to 7 years. Scrap supply tends
to average about 600 tonnes annually. Demand is
currently estimated to be roughly 4800 tons (primarily
jewelry) without any investment demand from the
Western world. The present deficit has been met by
direct central bank sales (roughly 400 tonnes per
year) and central bank leasing for mining hedges
and financial speculation.
2) Unsustainable Short Position
Central banks have ostensibly lent increasing
amounts of gold to earn interest on their reserves.
However, when one lends at an rate (less than 1%
generally), the question arises as to whether there
may be another motivation. As a rising gold price
stands as a direct repudiation of their alleged
responsible monetary policy, perhaps this is the
real reason they have been so aggressive in this
area. Bullion banks have borrowed gold from the
central banks for their own accounts and those of
various speculators, such as hedge funds and
financial institutions (the carry trade) and for
producers (mine hedging) and have used
derivatives to limit their risks and generate
additional income. The loaned gold has been
sold into the physical market and is now in jewelry,
primarily in the Middle East, India, and other parts
of the Far East. The size of the short position,
officially acknowledged to be more than 5,000
tonness by the bullion bank apologists, is thought
to be well over 10,000 tonnes and may exceed
15,000 tonnes. To put this in context, this constitutes
between one-third and one-half of all central bank
gold, and the vast majority of it is no longer
accessible.
3) Unsustainable Low Inflation
The gold price has a tendency to rise at the first
whiff of accelerating inflation. CPI inflation has been
unrealistically low due to the very strong dollar, which
has underwritten vicious foreign competition and
removed pricing power in many sectors. However,
in the final analysis, inflation is a monetary phenomenon
and the aggressive interest rate cuts and monetary
expansion to avoid recession/deflation is expected to
result in re-inflation. Year-to-date, the liquidity injection
is more than $1 trillion and MZM has grown by 16.5%
in the past year. To avoid debt default, the Fed must
err on the side of ease, virtually ensuring upside
pressure on the CPI. In addition, the "war on terror"
superimposed on Bush`s mammoth tax cuts and a
four-year government real rate of spending increases
that is the greatest since the `60s portends large U.S.
government deficits, yet another recipe for inflation.
4) Unsustainable U.S. Dollar
The U.S. dollar has been levitating for a long time,
but the underlying fundamentals continue to erode.
The U.S. current account deficit exceeds $400 billion
annually, and the continuation of this chronic deficit
turned the U.S. into the world`s largest debtor as
most of these deficits are being recycled into U.S.
debt instruments. However, foreign appetite for U.S.
securities appears to be ebbing and the chart on
the U.S. dollar looks very toppy . Gold is already in
a bull market in U.S. dollars, and an established bull
market in every other currency. If the reserve currency,
the U.S. dollar, falters, gold could well be launched
on the upside as people recognize its status as the
only "true currency."
5) Unsustainable Prices for Financial Assets
Western world investment demand will be the true
fundamental that drives gold much higher. Gold tends
to be counter-cyclical and investors buy it when financial
assets begin to lose credibility. Ownership and pricing
(P/E) of financial assets are at historic highs and if
inflation accelerates, the U.S. stock market is extremely
vulnerable. The ratio of the S & P 500 Index to the price
of gold reached an all-time high, by a considerable
margin, in 2000, but this parabola have been broken
and a downward trend is in effect. At the margin, if a
small amount of money is moved from financial assets
into gold, the price effect on gold will be dramatic and
the ratio will continue to move in gold`s favor.
6) Increasing Evidence of Unsustainable Gold
Price Manipulation
a. Aggressive gold lending, which from an economic
perspective is indefensible, has filled the
supply/demand gap.
b. NY Fed gold has been mobilized when the gold price
is rising.
c. Timing of Exchange Stabilization Fund gains/losses
corresponds to gold price movements.
d. Audited reports of U.S. gold reserves show unexplained
variances.
e. Minutes of Fed meetings confirm officially denied gold
swaps.
f. Rules on gold swaps revised but subsequently denied.
However, individual central banks have repudiated the
denial.
g. U.S. gold reserves have recently been re-designated
twice, initially to "custodial gold" and latterly to "deep
storage gold."
h. Statistical analysis of unusual gold price movements
since 1994 indicate high probability of price suppression.
The invalidation since 1995 of Gibson`s Paradox -- that
gold prices rise when real interest rates fall -- suggests that
the real manipulation began then.
i. NY gold price movements versus London trading defy
odds.
j. Timing of huge increases in bullion bank gold derivatives
is consistent with gold price declines.
k. Rapid decline in U.S. Treasury holdings of gold-backed
SDR certificates is not explained.
One or two of these factors could be viewed as random, but
the full body of evidence is overwhelming.
It would appear that gold is beginning to be viewed as
money again. Gold is the only monetary asset that doesn`t
represent somebody else`s liability, and with U.S. real
short-term interest rates now in negative territory, there is
no disadvantage in holding gold. Those with a vested
interest in containing the price of gold -- central banks,
bullion banks, heavily hedged gold companies -- will not
die easily, but the tide is moving strongly against them
and the embedded short positions could catapult the
gold price higher while imperiling the future of those
holding the short positions.
The great rallying cry of the bears is the mobilization of
even more central bank gold to the tide. Recently, Ernst
Welteke of the Bundesbank has spoken publicly of the
Germans selling gold after the initial Washington
Agreement limiting European central bank gold sales to
400 tonnes per year expires in late 2004 with the intention
of redeploying into stocks and bonds. Formerly,
commentary and action of this sort by central banks (the
announcement of Swiss sales, the initiation of English gold
auctions, etc.) devastated the gold market but this elicited
little more than a yawn. An astute gold analyst in South
Africa postulated the reason why, perhaps. There are
strong rumors that Deutschebank has borrowed an
enormous amount of gold (more than $10 billion worth)
from the Bundesbank over the years to facilitate the
carry trade, producer hedging, etc. and it is becoming
apparent that there is no way they will be able to pay it
back. Perhaps, to make good on their gold loans, they
will reimburse the Bundesbank with stocks and bonds
and Mr. Welteke is readying the German public for
with his statements.
In addition, there are enormous dollar reserves building
up in the Far East, particularly in China, and the Far East has
acknowledged being significant buyers of gold. So the flow
of central bank gold is not only one-way. Even the Russian
Central Bank is on the buy side. The shibboleth of central
bank sales will undoubtedly be trotted out again, but it is
losing its sting, particularly if the possibility that as much
as half of all the central bank gold may already be in the
market starts to become more widely recognized.
In addition, in the `70s, when gold was rising sharply in
price, central banks, after having been heavy sellers at
$35/oz., sold little or none at higher prices. Central bankers
are no different than the momentum players; if the price is
rising, they are more likely to be buyers than sellers.
One last observation concerns the gold share price action
prior to the explosion of gold prices in the `70s. Then, as
now, gold stocks rose to prices that made no sense to
observers who had a static view on gold prices, but the
stock buyers knew that sharply higher gold prices were
inevitable. I suspect that is the case today, particularly
when one examines the foregoing evidence.
7) Gold Stocks
Gold stocks are perceived by many to expensive, but, in
fact, they are considerably cheaper than they were in the
late `90s. The central banks` overt attempts to bring the
gold price down (Swiss sales, British auctions, etc.) at
that time removed the premium in gold shares and it is
now gradually being restored as confidence returns to
the sector. In fact, if the gold prices were to rise sharply,
I would not be surprised if the price to NAV continued to
rise due to a shortage of viable gold stocks.
-END-
die Meinung, dass es mit Gold nicht weit her ist.
Ein interner Bericht (aus dem Board von Thai-Guru)
sagt hier aber etwas anderes.
Was glaubt ihr, wenn die von mir erwartete kurze
Widerstandslinie von rd. 330 Dollar durchbrochen wird,
was dann noch alles kommt??
RBC Global Investment Management Inc., a
division of Royal Bank of Canada, whose gold
mutual fund is among the best performing in
the world, has issued a report to private clients
that fully endorses GATA`s analysis of the
gold market and the world economy.
Don`t worry -- GATA hasn`t gone establishment.
To the contrary, the establishment in the gold
world is coming around to our central premise:
that central banks and particularly the U.S.
Treasury Department have been colluding
surreptitiously and desperately to suppress the
gold price and manipulate the gold market.
The RBC Global Investment Management report
seems to have been written by someone who has
been following GATA`s work closely, taking notes,
and checking out our assertions. It`s more evidence
that, because of your support, we`re making a big
difference for the gold cause.
The report was sent to GATA this week by an
intermediary and is appended here.
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
* * *
RBC GLOBAL INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INC.
Report on Gold
Clearly, with gold stocks on a tear as the gold
price moves laboriously forward battling the
fervent attempts to suppress it, one must be
comfortable with the notion that the gold price
is going to overcome the forces that are aligned
against it. What is happening today is no different
than what was happening in the late `60s and the
very early `70s, when the Gold Pool was in
existence and the gold price was contained at
$35 per oz. by a consortium of central banks
that dumped a considerable amount of gold to
keep prices down. Today, instead of the overt
action of yesteryear, it is covert because the
market is allegedly free, and it has entailed a
different mechanism, which has resulted in a
humongous physical short position. In addition,
there has been an enormous amount of
derivatives piled on top, which could make the
ultimate upside explosion all the more spectacular.
So the question obviously is: "Will the gold rally
ever begin?" The following arguments emphatically
suggest that it will more than rally; it will explode to
the upside.
1.Unsustainable Supply/Demand Imbalance
Mine production has flattened out at 2,600 tonnes and
is beginning to fall due to a lack of exploration, falling
grade at many mines due to previous high-grading,
and the closing of older mines as they run out of ore.
It has been estimated by Beacon & Associates in an
exhaustive study that if gold prices were to remain
under $300/oz., production will fall in the neighborhood
of 25% over the next 5 to 7 years. Scrap supply tends
to average about 600 tonnes annually. Demand is
currently estimated to be roughly 4800 tons (primarily
jewelry) without any investment demand from the
Western world. The present deficit has been met by
direct central bank sales (roughly 400 tonnes per
year) and central bank leasing for mining hedges
and financial speculation.
2) Unsustainable Short Position
Central banks have ostensibly lent increasing
amounts of gold to earn interest on their reserves.
However, when one lends at an rate (less than 1%
generally), the question arises as to whether there
may be another motivation. As a rising gold price
stands as a direct repudiation of their alleged
responsible monetary policy, perhaps this is the
real reason they have been so aggressive in this
area. Bullion banks have borrowed gold from the
central banks for their own accounts and those of
various speculators, such as hedge funds and
financial institutions (the carry trade) and for
producers (mine hedging) and have used
derivatives to limit their risks and generate
additional income. The loaned gold has been
sold into the physical market and is now in jewelry,
primarily in the Middle East, India, and other parts
of the Far East. The size of the short position,
officially acknowledged to be more than 5,000
tonness by the bullion bank apologists, is thought
to be well over 10,000 tonnes and may exceed
15,000 tonnes. To put this in context, this constitutes
between one-third and one-half of all central bank
gold, and the vast majority of it is no longer
accessible.
3) Unsustainable Low Inflation
The gold price has a tendency to rise at the first
whiff of accelerating inflation. CPI inflation has been
unrealistically low due to the very strong dollar, which
has underwritten vicious foreign competition and
removed pricing power in many sectors. However,
in the final analysis, inflation is a monetary phenomenon
and the aggressive interest rate cuts and monetary
expansion to avoid recession/deflation is expected to
result in re-inflation. Year-to-date, the liquidity injection
is more than $1 trillion and MZM has grown by 16.5%
in the past year. To avoid debt default, the Fed must
err on the side of ease, virtually ensuring upside
pressure on the CPI. In addition, the "war on terror"
superimposed on Bush`s mammoth tax cuts and a
four-year government real rate of spending increases
that is the greatest since the `60s portends large U.S.
government deficits, yet another recipe for inflation.
4) Unsustainable U.S. Dollar
The U.S. dollar has been levitating for a long time,
but the underlying fundamentals continue to erode.
The U.S. current account deficit exceeds $400 billion
annually, and the continuation of this chronic deficit
turned the U.S. into the world`s largest debtor as
most of these deficits are being recycled into U.S.
debt instruments. However, foreign appetite for U.S.
securities appears to be ebbing and the chart on
the U.S. dollar looks very toppy . Gold is already in
a bull market in U.S. dollars, and an established bull
market in every other currency. If the reserve currency,
the U.S. dollar, falters, gold could well be launched
on the upside as people recognize its status as the
only "true currency."
5) Unsustainable Prices for Financial Assets
Western world investment demand will be the true
fundamental that drives gold much higher. Gold tends
to be counter-cyclical and investors buy it when financial
assets begin to lose credibility. Ownership and pricing
(P/E) of financial assets are at historic highs and if
inflation accelerates, the U.S. stock market is extremely
vulnerable. The ratio of the S & P 500 Index to the price
of gold reached an all-time high, by a considerable
margin, in 2000, but this parabola have been broken
and a downward trend is in effect. At the margin, if a
small amount of money is moved from financial assets
into gold, the price effect on gold will be dramatic and
the ratio will continue to move in gold`s favor.
6) Increasing Evidence of Unsustainable Gold
Price Manipulation
a. Aggressive gold lending, which from an economic
perspective is indefensible, has filled the
supply/demand gap.
b. NY Fed gold has been mobilized when the gold price
is rising.
c. Timing of Exchange Stabilization Fund gains/losses
corresponds to gold price movements.
d. Audited reports of U.S. gold reserves show unexplained
variances.
e. Minutes of Fed meetings confirm officially denied gold
swaps.
f. Rules on gold swaps revised but subsequently denied.
However, individual central banks have repudiated the
denial.
g. U.S. gold reserves have recently been re-designated
twice, initially to "custodial gold" and latterly to "deep
storage gold."
h. Statistical analysis of unusual gold price movements
since 1994 indicate high probability of price suppression.
The invalidation since 1995 of Gibson`s Paradox -- that
gold prices rise when real interest rates fall -- suggests that
the real manipulation began then.
i. NY gold price movements versus London trading defy
odds.
j. Timing of huge increases in bullion bank gold derivatives
is consistent with gold price declines.
k. Rapid decline in U.S. Treasury holdings of gold-backed
SDR certificates is not explained.
One or two of these factors could be viewed as random, but
the full body of evidence is overwhelming.
It would appear that gold is beginning to be viewed as
money again. Gold is the only monetary asset that doesn`t
represent somebody else`s liability, and with U.S. real
short-term interest rates now in negative territory, there is
no disadvantage in holding gold. Those with a vested
interest in containing the price of gold -- central banks,
bullion banks, heavily hedged gold companies -- will not
die easily, but the tide is moving strongly against them
and the embedded short positions could catapult the
gold price higher while imperiling the future of those
holding the short positions.
The great rallying cry of the bears is the mobilization of
even more central bank gold to the tide. Recently, Ernst
Welteke of the Bundesbank has spoken publicly of the
Germans selling gold after the initial Washington
Agreement limiting European central bank gold sales to
400 tonnes per year expires in late 2004 with the intention
of redeploying into stocks and bonds. Formerly,
commentary and action of this sort by central banks (the
announcement of Swiss sales, the initiation of English gold
auctions, etc.) devastated the gold market but this elicited
little more than a yawn. An astute gold analyst in South
Africa postulated the reason why, perhaps. There are
strong rumors that Deutschebank has borrowed an
enormous amount of gold (more than $10 billion worth)
from the Bundesbank over the years to facilitate the
carry trade, producer hedging, etc. and it is becoming
apparent that there is no way they will be able to pay it
back. Perhaps, to make good on their gold loans, they
will reimburse the Bundesbank with stocks and bonds
and Mr. Welteke is readying the German public for
with his statements.
In addition, there are enormous dollar reserves building
up in the Far East, particularly in China, and the Far East has
acknowledged being significant buyers of gold. So the flow
of central bank gold is not only one-way. Even the Russian
Central Bank is on the buy side. The shibboleth of central
bank sales will undoubtedly be trotted out again, but it is
losing its sting, particularly if the possibility that as much
as half of all the central bank gold may already be in the
market starts to become more widely recognized.
In addition, in the `70s, when gold was rising sharply in
price, central banks, after having been heavy sellers at
$35/oz., sold little or none at higher prices. Central bankers
are no different than the momentum players; if the price is
rising, they are more likely to be buyers than sellers.
One last observation concerns the gold share price action
prior to the explosion of gold prices in the `70s. Then, as
now, gold stocks rose to prices that made no sense to
observers who had a static view on gold prices, but the
stock buyers knew that sharply higher gold prices were
inevitable. I suspect that is the case today, particularly
when one examines the foregoing evidence.
7) Gold Stocks
Gold stocks are perceived by many to expensive, but, in
fact, they are considerably cheaper than they were in the
late `90s. The central banks` overt attempts to bring the
gold price down (Swiss sales, British auctions, etc.) at
that time removed the premium in gold shares and it is
now gradually being restored as confidence returns to
the sector. In fact, if the gold prices were to rise sharply,
I would not be surprised if the price to NAV continued to
rise due to a shortage of viable gold stocks.
-END-
Man Schwiegervater sagte gestern, er hätte gehört, man solle jetzt Goldaktien kaufen.
Auszug aus dem Aktiendepot meines Schwiegervaters:
Deutsche Telekom
EM.TV
SAP
SAP.SI
Thiel Logistik
Brokat
EADS
Gold-Zack
Wenn etwas explodiert, ist hinterher nicht mehr viel davon übrig
Auszug aus dem Aktiendepot meines Schwiegervaters:
Deutsche Telekom
EM.TV
SAP
SAP.SI
Thiel Logistik
Brokat
EADS
Gold-Zack
Wenn etwas explodiert, ist hinterher nicht mehr viel davon übrig
Dein Schwiegervater hat Babcock vergessen.......
uiiiiiiii
uiiiiiiii
witzig und wie sieht Dein Depot aus?
@Mandrella: In zehn Jahren sprechen wir uns wieder.
30 %Cash (Euro, sfr),50 % Goldminen, 20 % Gold (physisch)
1 Aktie (Post)-weil Geschenk UND
uiiiiiiiiiiii
1 Aktie (Post)-weil Geschenk UND
uiiiiiiiiiiii
@goldpups
hör bloß auf mit Babcock!
hör bloß auf mit Babcock!
@DBrix
Hattest Du nicht vor Jahren mal TVX in Babcock getauscht, oder wie war das nochmal...???
Hattest Du nicht vor Jahren mal TVX in Babcock getauscht, oder wie war das nochmal...???
Da liegen die Short-Future-Kontrakte bei Silber
auf Wahnsinnsniveau, ebenfalls sehr hoch die
Goldkontrakte
und was mach Gold: es fällt.
Es kann doch auch nicht sein, dass alle Börsen abschmieren
und Gold steigt.
Das darf einfach nicht sein. Die Jungs müssen sehr
verzweifelt sein, und schon werden wieder vermutlich
einige Tausend Futures auf den Markt geschmissen.
Das mach den Balon der platzt umso grösser.
Bis dann.
auf Wahnsinnsniveau, ebenfalls sehr hoch die
Goldkontrakte
und was mach Gold: es fällt.
Es kann doch auch nicht sein, dass alle Börsen abschmieren
und Gold steigt.
Das darf einfach nicht sein. Die Jungs müssen sehr
verzweifelt sein, und schon werden wieder vermutlich
einige Tausend Futures auf den Markt geschmissen.
Das mach den Balon der platzt umso grösser.
Bis dann.
Obwohl doch Gold und Silber heute verloren haben,
lagen Newmont und Barrick noch unter den Top-
Werten im S & P 500.
Warum wohl???
Ich denke, weil die anderen Werte alle so schlecht
waren, oder??
lagen Newmont und Barrick noch unter den Top-
Werten im S & P 500.
Warum wohl???
Ich denke, weil die anderen Werte alle so schlecht
waren, oder??
War das gestern evtl. eine Bärenfalle bei Gold.
Im Moment strong auf 324 Dollar. Wird heute wieder
interveniert??
Im Moment strong auf 324 Dollar. Wird heute wieder
interveniert??
STeht Gold wieder kurz vor der Wende nach oben.
Drohendes Börsenbeben durch hohe Schuldenberge
Experten: Hälfte der 500 größten US-Firmen ist konkursgefährdet. Lage auch in Deutschland kritisch
Von Holger Zschäpitz
Berlin – Erdbebenforscher schlagen Alarm. Denn die Börsenseismografen deuten auf ein größeres Pleiten-Beben an den Märkten hin. Ein bewährter Frühindikator ist das Altman-Z-Score-Modell, mit dessen Hilfe die Insolvenzgefährdung eines Unternehmens berechnet wird. Und dieser Indikator, der Bilanzkennzahlen wie Eigenkapital, Gewinn, Verschuldung und Umsatz ins Verhältnis zueinander setzt, verheißt nichts Gutes. Bei 46 Prozent der 500 größten US-Unternehmen liefert das Modell dramatische Werte. Sie notieren unterhalb des kritischen Z-Wertes von 1,81. Im Klartext: Wenn es den Unternehmen nicht gelingt, über die Börse oder bei den Banken frische Gelder aufzutreiben oder eine rasche Ertragswende hinzulegen, steuern sie auf einen Konkurs zu. Auch Deutschland wird nicht vom Beben verschont bleiben. Fast ein Viertel der 30 Dax-Titel befinden sich in kritischer Lage.
„Die Schuldensituation ist äußerst ernst“, sagt James Montier, Stratege bei Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein. Sie habe sich in den vergangenen Quartalen immer weiter verschlechtert, was sich in den fallenden Z-Werten für den S&P 500 spiegele. „Die angespannten Bilanzen werden die Märkte weiter in Atem halten. Ein rasches Ende des Bärenmarktes ist nicht abzusehen.“
„Schulden, Erschütterungen und Pleiten“ hat Montier seine jüngste Studie überschrieben. Zwar sei nicht unbedingt damit zu rechnen, dass nun 230 der 500 S&P-Firmen demnächst den Gang zum Konkursrichter antreten müssen. Doch für die Gesellschaften könnte die Liquidität knapp werden. Und genau hier liegt das Problem. Denn im momentanen Umfeld kommen Unternehmen nur sehr kostspielig an flüssige Mittel. Das hat zur Folge, dass jede Kapitalmaßnahme mit kräftigen Kurseinbußen bestraft wird. Hier kann der Z-Wert den Anlegern helfen, die Aktien kapitalbedürftiger Unternehmen zu meiden.
Bereits in der Vergangenheit lieferte das Modell brauchbare Ergebnisse. So kamen im vergangenen Quartal besonders die Aktien von Gesellschaften unter die Räder, die unter dem kritischen Z-Level von 1,81 lagen. Papiere von Konzernen mit einer besseren Bilanzkonstellation konnten sich dagegen besser behaupten. „Die Prognosegenauigkeit des Konkursindikators liegt zwischen 70 und 80 Prozent“, sagt Montier.
Ein Blick auf die Z-Werte zeigt, dass sich längst nicht nur die Wackelkandidaten in eine gefährliche Schuldensituation manövriert haben. Zu den üblichen Verdächtigen, den US-Fluggesellschaften oder Telefonfirmen, gesellen sich bei den US-Unternehmen mit den schlechtesten Z-Werten auch angesehene Konzerne wie Sears Roebuck, Kellogg, Dow Chemical, Walt Disney oder AOL Time Warner.
Auch in Deutschland liest sich die Liste der Gesellschaften, die unter dem kritischen Z-Wert von 1,81 notieren, wie ein „Who is who“ der Wirtschaft. Im Dax trifft es die Telekom, Daimler-Chrysler, die Lufthansa, VW, TUI, BMW und Degussa. Besonders kritisch sieht es für die Telekom aus, deren Z-Wert auf 0,52 abgestürzt ist. Entwarnung kann dagegen bei den Autowerten gegeben werden. Die hohe Verschuldung etwa bei Daimler-Chrysler beruht zum Großteil auf dem Geschäft mit Autofinanzierungen. Rechnet man diese Kredite heraus, liegt der Z-Wert mit 3,7 Punkten im grünen Bereich. So bleibt Anlegern die Hoffnung, dass zumindest in Deutschland das große Börsenbeben ausbleibt.
Drohendes Börsenbeben durch hohe Schuldenberge
Experten: Hälfte der 500 größten US-Firmen ist konkursgefährdet. Lage auch in Deutschland kritisch
Von Holger Zschäpitz
Berlin – Erdbebenforscher schlagen Alarm. Denn die Börsenseismografen deuten auf ein größeres Pleiten-Beben an den Märkten hin. Ein bewährter Frühindikator ist das Altman-Z-Score-Modell, mit dessen Hilfe die Insolvenzgefährdung eines Unternehmens berechnet wird. Und dieser Indikator, der Bilanzkennzahlen wie Eigenkapital, Gewinn, Verschuldung und Umsatz ins Verhältnis zueinander setzt, verheißt nichts Gutes. Bei 46 Prozent der 500 größten US-Unternehmen liefert das Modell dramatische Werte. Sie notieren unterhalb des kritischen Z-Wertes von 1,81. Im Klartext: Wenn es den Unternehmen nicht gelingt, über die Börse oder bei den Banken frische Gelder aufzutreiben oder eine rasche Ertragswende hinzulegen, steuern sie auf einen Konkurs zu. Auch Deutschland wird nicht vom Beben verschont bleiben. Fast ein Viertel der 30 Dax-Titel befinden sich in kritischer Lage.
„Die Schuldensituation ist äußerst ernst“, sagt James Montier, Stratege bei Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein. Sie habe sich in den vergangenen Quartalen immer weiter verschlechtert, was sich in den fallenden Z-Werten für den S&P 500 spiegele. „Die angespannten Bilanzen werden die Märkte weiter in Atem halten. Ein rasches Ende des Bärenmarktes ist nicht abzusehen.“
„Schulden, Erschütterungen und Pleiten“ hat Montier seine jüngste Studie überschrieben. Zwar sei nicht unbedingt damit zu rechnen, dass nun 230 der 500 S&P-Firmen demnächst den Gang zum Konkursrichter antreten müssen. Doch für die Gesellschaften könnte die Liquidität knapp werden. Und genau hier liegt das Problem. Denn im momentanen Umfeld kommen Unternehmen nur sehr kostspielig an flüssige Mittel. Das hat zur Folge, dass jede Kapitalmaßnahme mit kräftigen Kurseinbußen bestraft wird. Hier kann der Z-Wert den Anlegern helfen, die Aktien kapitalbedürftiger Unternehmen zu meiden.
Bereits in der Vergangenheit lieferte das Modell brauchbare Ergebnisse. So kamen im vergangenen Quartal besonders die Aktien von Gesellschaften unter die Räder, die unter dem kritischen Z-Level von 1,81 lagen. Papiere von Konzernen mit einer besseren Bilanzkonstellation konnten sich dagegen besser behaupten. „Die Prognosegenauigkeit des Konkursindikators liegt zwischen 70 und 80 Prozent“, sagt Montier.
Ein Blick auf die Z-Werte zeigt, dass sich längst nicht nur die Wackelkandidaten in eine gefährliche Schuldensituation manövriert haben. Zu den üblichen Verdächtigen, den US-Fluggesellschaften oder Telefonfirmen, gesellen sich bei den US-Unternehmen mit den schlechtesten Z-Werten auch angesehene Konzerne wie Sears Roebuck, Kellogg, Dow Chemical, Walt Disney oder AOL Time Warner.
Auch in Deutschland liest sich die Liste der Gesellschaften, die unter dem kritischen Z-Wert von 1,81 notieren, wie ein „Who is who“ der Wirtschaft. Im Dax trifft es die Telekom, Daimler-Chrysler, die Lufthansa, VW, TUI, BMW und Degussa. Besonders kritisch sieht es für die Telekom aus, deren Z-Wert auf 0,52 abgestürzt ist. Entwarnung kann dagegen bei den Autowerten gegeben werden. Die hohe Verschuldung etwa bei Daimler-Chrysler beruht zum Großteil auf dem Geschäft mit Autofinanzierungen. Rechnet man diese Kredite heraus, liegt der Z-Wert mit 3,7 Punkten im grünen Bereich. So bleibt Anlegern die Hoffnung, dass zumindest in Deutschland das große Börsenbeben ausbleibt.
Bush gibt um 17.00 Uhr Ortszeit Pressekonferenz.
Thema unbekannt.
Thema unbekannt.
17.00 Uhr New York
+ 6 Stunden-Zeitverschiebung = 23.00 Uhr Berlin Time
+ 6 Stunden-Zeitverschiebung = 23.00 Uhr Berlin Time
Das ist wohl nicht gemeint, oder ?
Die Kurse werden an der Wall Street in der neuen Woche wahrscheinlich Achterbahn fahren, da die Earningssaison beginnen und Präsident Bush die Wall Street besuchen wird.
Investoren werden genau darauf achten, wie hart Bush über Unternehmensleiter sprechen wird, die gegen Bilanzierungsvorschriften verstoßen und damit einen Skandal nach dem Anderen auslösen. Bush wird sich im Vorfeld der Rede am Dienstag bereits heute mit seinen Wirtschafts- und Politik-Beratern zu einem Treffen einfinden.
Das erste große Ereignis in dieser Woche ist die Anhörung des CEO Bernie Ebbers und des ehemaligen CFO Scott Sullivan von WorldCom vor dem House Financial Services Committee. Der aktuelle CEO John Sidgmore und der Chairman Bert Roberts werden voraussichtlich zusammen mit dem Salomon Smith Barney Telekom Analyst Jack Grubman im Anschluss dazu Fragen beantworten, die weiteren Aufschluss auf die Situation WorldCom´s geben werden.
Qwest wird nach einer Ankündigung am Sonntag das Management neu zusammenstellen und auch den Finanzvorstand des Unternehmens entlassen.
Mehrere Unternehmen werden in dieser Woche ihre Quartalszahlen präsentieren. Darunter auch, als erster Komponent des Dow Jones, Alcoa, die am Montag berichten werden.
Auf Seiten der Wirtschaftsdaten erwartet man aktuelle Daten zum Einzelhandelsumsatz und zur Produktivität. Ferner werden die neuesten Daten zum Verbrauchervertrauen veröffentlicht.
Die Kurse werden an der Wall Street in der neuen Woche wahrscheinlich Achterbahn fahren, da die Earningssaison beginnen und Präsident Bush die Wall Street besuchen wird.
Investoren werden genau darauf achten, wie hart Bush über Unternehmensleiter sprechen wird, die gegen Bilanzierungsvorschriften verstoßen und damit einen Skandal nach dem Anderen auslösen. Bush wird sich im Vorfeld der Rede am Dienstag bereits heute mit seinen Wirtschafts- und Politik-Beratern zu einem Treffen einfinden.
Das erste große Ereignis in dieser Woche ist die Anhörung des CEO Bernie Ebbers und des ehemaligen CFO Scott Sullivan von WorldCom vor dem House Financial Services Committee. Der aktuelle CEO John Sidgmore und der Chairman Bert Roberts werden voraussichtlich zusammen mit dem Salomon Smith Barney Telekom Analyst Jack Grubman im Anschluss dazu Fragen beantworten, die weiteren Aufschluss auf die Situation WorldCom´s geben werden.
Qwest wird nach einer Ankündigung am Sonntag das Management neu zusammenstellen und auch den Finanzvorstand des Unternehmens entlassen.
Mehrere Unternehmen werden in dieser Woche ihre Quartalszahlen präsentieren. Darunter auch, als erster Komponent des Dow Jones, Alcoa, die am Montag berichten werden.
Auf Seiten der Wirtschaftsdaten erwartet man aktuelle Daten zum Einzelhandelsumsatz und zur Produktivität. Ferner werden die neuesten Daten zum Verbrauchervertrauen veröffentlicht.
Worüber wird George W. Bush sprechen? Die Gerüchte sind diametral.
Amerikaner sind Bürger und Soldaten 1.Klasse und stehen daher über den Menschenrechten? Niederländer sowie Milosevic haben keine Immunität und können daher jederzeit von der NEUEN WELTORDNUNG reglementiert werden.
Ron Sommer und Jan Ullrich müssen zurücktreten und eine Wahl in D bestimmt die neue Führung in D? Andernfalls es keinen eigenen Staat D gibt!
Bonuspunkte in der KFZ-Versicherung (KriegsFörderungsZustimmer-Versicherung) für dienliches Verhalten, ohne Schaden einzuklagen?
Wer hat die Rede geschrieben?
Homo sapiens? Homo erectus? Scharr-on? Oder gar Busch? (Busch mit sch, ich lasse mir nix andichten!)
Wie alle warten gespannt, ob er der Inhalt an die letzte Rede heranreicht????
Liebe Grüße aus Wien
Amerikaner sind Bürger und Soldaten 1.Klasse und stehen daher über den Menschenrechten? Niederländer sowie Milosevic haben keine Immunität und können daher jederzeit von der NEUEN WELTORDNUNG reglementiert werden.
Ron Sommer und Jan Ullrich müssen zurücktreten und eine Wahl in D bestimmt die neue Führung in D? Andernfalls es keinen eigenen Staat D gibt!
Bonuspunkte in der KFZ-Versicherung (KriegsFörderungsZustimmer-Versicherung) für dienliches Verhalten, ohne Schaden einzuklagen?
Wer hat die Rede geschrieben?
Homo sapiens? Homo erectus? Scharr-on? Oder gar Busch? (Busch mit sch, ich lasse mir nix andichten!)
Wie alle warten gespannt, ob er der Inhalt an die letzte Rede heranreicht????
Liebe Grüße aus Wien
Soll das alles vorbeugend auf die kommenden Schieflagen und Weltwirtschafts-Turbulenzen hinweisen??
Wer weiß.
Wer weiß.
Die Lage mit der Verschuldung spitzt sich zu.
Bush Expects 56 Pct Surge in `02 Deficit
By Adam Entous
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Bush administration said on Friday it expected the federal government to post a deficit of $165 billion this fiscal year, a 56 percent increase over earlier projections reflecting a dramatic drop in tax revenues as the stock market has slumped.
Conceding it was caught off guard by the steepest decline in receipts since 1955, the administration said it may develop new budgetary models aimed at projecting the impact of stock movements on capital gains and other tax revenues.
"We have no model at this time, and it will be very difficult, I know, to produce one, but we need to try to understand this phenomenon better," White House budget director Mitch Daniels said.
While the White House revised upward its 2002 economic growth forecast to 2.6 percent from 0.7 percent and projected a return to surpluses in fiscal 2005, rising deficits in the near term could hurt President Bush and his fellow Republicans in upcoming elections, where small swings could shift control of both the House of Representatives and Senate.
Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle, a South Dakota Democrat, called the deficit numbers "a disaster."
Rep. John Spratt, the senior Democrat on the House Budget Committee, asked: "How much worse will these figures have to get before the administration recognizes that its budget is at the source of the problem and there is no easy glide-path back to a balanced budget?"
At $165 billion, the projected deficit for fiscal 2002, which ends on Sept. 30, would be largest since fiscal 1994. The federal government posted a $127 billion surplus last year.
"The president deals with the cards that were dealt him," White House spokesman Ari Fleischer said, citing the recession and costs of the war on terrorism as reason for plunging the government into deficits for the first time in five years.
Officials said a major factor in the bigger deficits was the decline in tax receipts from capital gains -- a finding that could increase pressure on the president to play a more active role in seeking to shore up the stock market.
Capital gains taxes are generally collected from individuals when assets are sold at a profit. As stock values dropped this year, many investors racked up losses or held onto their shares. As a result, the government collected less.
The White House said it expected total tax receipts in 2002 to drop by $124 billion, or 6 percent, from 2001 levels. The last time revenues fell at that rate was 1955.
Bush is already under heavy fire from Democrats for failing to respond forcefully enough to a wave of accounting scandals that have sent the stock market tumbling to lows not seen since 1997. Polls show an erosion in public confidence in the economy and the administration`s economic stewardship.
DEFICITS REVISED UPWARD
If public confidence in the economy continues to waver in the run-up to the November congressional elections, analysts said it would be a huge boost for Democrats, who blamed the reemergence of deficits on Bush`s $1.35 trillion tax cut.
Republicans countered that Bush`s tax cut helped the United States recover from the twin shocks of a recession and the Sept. 11 attacks. They blamed a surge in government spending advocated by Democrats, not lower taxes, for the red ink.
The $165 billion shortfall for fiscal 2002 was revised up from the $106 billion deficit forecast by Bush in February. Senate Republicans expect a deficit of $152 billion in 2002.
The White House believes the shortfall in 2003 will run $109 billion, up from the $80 billion deficit projected in February. In contrast, Senate Republicans expect the deficit to climb to $194 billion in 2003. The deficit in 2004 would fall to $48 billion, according to the OMB`s mid-year budget review.
OMB said it expected a $53 billion surplus in 2005, and a combined surplus of $827 billion between fiscal years 2003 and 2012, assuming Democrats who currently control the Senate stick to the administration`s proposed spending levels.
The Bush White House is not the first to underestimate the impact of capital gains receipts on federal budgeting.
Former President Bill Clinton`s projections often missed the mark. But in contrast to Bush, Clinton underestimated the capital gains windfall as the stock market set record highs.
"In the late 1990s we had surprise revenue windfalls and everyone thought it was because GDP was growing," a Bush administration official said. "But we`re finding that that was not the biggest factor. The bigger factor was capital gains."
The finding gives Bush new incentive to try to boost the stock market. While polls show Bush`s overall approval ratings remain high, his marks for handling the economy have slipped.
Bush Expects 56 Pct Surge in `02 Deficit
By Adam Entous
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Bush administration said on Friday it expected the federal government to post a deficit of $165 billion this fiscal year, a 56 percent increase over earlier projections reflecting a dramatic drop in tax revenues as the stock market has slumped.
Conceding it was caught off guard by the steepest decline in receipts since 1955, the administration said it may develop new budgetary models aimed at projecting the impact of stock movements on capital gains and other tax revenues.
"We have no model at this time, and it will be very difficult, I know, to produce one, but we need to try to understand this phenomenon better," White House budget director Mitch Daniels said.
While the White House revised upward its 2002 economic growth forecast to 2.6 percent from 0.7 percent and projected a return to surpluses in fiscal 2005, rising deficits in the near term could hurt President Bush and his fellow Republicans in upcoming elections, where small swings could shift control of both the House of Representatives and Senate.
Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle, a South Dakota Democrat, called the deficit numbers "a disaster."
Rep. John Spratt, the senior Democrat on the House Budget Committee, asked: "How much worse will these figures have to get before the administration recognizes that its budget is at the source of the problem and there is no easy glide-path back to a balanced budget?"
At $165 billion, the projected deficit for fiscal 2002, which ends on Sept. 30, would be largest since fiscal 1994. The federal government posted a $127 billion surplus last year.
"The president deals with the cards that were dealt him," White House spokesman Ari Fleischer said, citing the recession and costs of the war on terrorism as reason for plunging the government into deficits for the first time in five years.
Officials said a major factor in the bigger deficits was the decline in tax receipts from capital gains -- a finding that could increase pressure on the president to play a more active role in seeking to shore up the stock market.
Capital gains taxes are generally collected from individuals when assets are sold at a profit. As stock values dropped this year, many investors racked up losses or held onto their shares. As a result, the government collected less.
The White House said it expected total tax receipts in 2002 to drop by $124 billion, or 6 percent, from 2001 levels. The last time revenues fell at that rate was 1955.
Bush is already under heavy fire from Democrats for failing to respond forcefully enough to a wave of accounting scandals that have sent the stock market tumbling to lows not seen since 1997. Polls show an erosion in public confidence in the economy and the administration`s economic stewardship.
DEFICITS REVISED UPWARD
If public confidence in the economy continues to waver in the run-up to the November congressional elections, analysts said it would be a huge boost for Democrats, who blamed the reemergence of deficits on Bush`s $1.35 trillion tax cut.
Republicans countered that Bush`s tax cut helped the United States recover from the twin shocks of a recession and the Sept. 11 attacks. They blamed a surge in government spending advocated by Democrats, not lower taxes, for the red ink.
The $165 billion shortfall for fiscal 2002 was revised up from the $106 billion deficit forecast by Bush in February. Senate Republicans expect a deficit of $152 billion in 2002.
The White House believes the shortfall in 2003 will run $109 billion, up from the $80 billion deficit projected in February. In contrast, Senate Republicans expect the deficit to climb to $194 billion in 2003. The deficit in 2004 would fall to $48 billion, according to the OMB`s mid-year budget review.
OMB said it expected a $53 billion surplus in 2005, and a combined surplus of $827 billion between fiscal years 2003 and 2012, assuming Democrats who currently control the Senate stick to the administration`s proposed spending levels.
The Bush White House is not the first to underestimate the impact of capital gains receipts on federal budgeting.
Former President Bill Clinton`s projections often missed the mark. But in contrast to Bush, Clinton underestimated the capital gains windfall as the stock market set record highs.
"In the late 1990s we had surprise revenue windfalls and everyone thought it was because GDP was growing," a Bush administration official said. "But we`re finding that that was not the biggest factor. The bigger factor was capital gains."
The finding gives Bush new incentive to try to boost the stock market. While polls show Bush`s overall approval ratings remain high, his marks for handling the economy have slipped.
Gold prices fail to follow a neat pattern
Study finds no common pattern to recent spikes and cycles, reports Paul Taylor
FT.com site; Jul 14, 2002
There have been six gold price cycles since it hit an all-time high of $850 per ounce in January 1980. However, a study has found that there has been no common denominator to those subsequent price spikes.
Research by Straszheim Global Advisors, the US advisory firm, suggests that it is almost impossible for investors to anticipate a gold price rise such as the recent rally, which has seen the price rise from a low of $255 in April last year to $327 early last month.
"Gold prices have not followed normal business cycles, either here or abroad," says the report. "Sometimes gold`s attraction is its `safe haven` quality. At other times, it is an inflation hedge."
The firm argues that the current gold price rise has been driven by geopolitical concerns and the potential for wealth destruction in equity and real as sets. Essentially this cycle is a "safe haven" effect.
The report contrasts the 2001-2002 gold cycle with previous cycles - 1999-2000, 1992-1993, 1989-1990, 1985-1987, 1982-1983. It notes that during the 1999-2000 cycle, when gold prices rose by 24 per cent between June and October 1999, equity prices were still rising sharply and the US economy was very strong. Similarly, during the previous gold price cycle, when gold rose by 22 per cent between March and August of 1993, macroeconomic conditions were solid.
The two biggest gold price spikes came in the 33 months ending in December 1987 when gold gained 71 per cent - apparently reflecting investors concerns - and in 1982-1983, when gold gained 67 per cent, driven by despair over equities, the economy and inflation.
Study finds no common pattern to recent spikes and cycles, reports Paul Taylor
FT.com site; Jul 14, 2002
There have been six gold price cycles since it hit an all-time high of $850 per ounce in January 1980. However, a study has found that there has been no common denominator to those subsequent price spikes.
Research by Straszheim Global Advisors, the US advisory firm, suggests that it is almost impossible for investors to anticipate a gold price rise such as the recent rally, which has seen the price rise from a low of $255 in April last year to $327 early last month.
"Gold prices have not followed normal business cycles, either here or abroad," says the report. "Sometimes gold`s attraction is its `safe haven` quality. At other times, it is an inflation hedge."
The firm argues that the current gold price rise has been driven by geopolitical concerns and the potential for wealth destruction in equity and real as sets. Essentially this cycle is a "safe haven" effect.
The report contrasts the 2001-2002 gold cycle with previous cycles - 1999-2000, 1992-1993, 1989-1990, 1985-1987, 1982-1983. It notes that during the 1999-2000 cycle, when gold prices rose by 24 per cent between June and October 1999, equity prices were still rising sharply and the US economy was very strong. Similarly, during the previous gold price cycle, when gold rose by 22 per cent between March and August of 1993, macroeconomic conditions were solid.
The two biggest gold price spikes came in the 33 months ending in December 1987 when gold gained 71 per cent - apparently reflecting investors concerns - and in 1982-1983, when gold gained 67 per cent, driven by despair over equities, the economy and inflation.
In Japan brennt die Lunte schon
angeblich sollen ja einige japanische Banken Probleme
bekommen wenn der Nikkei unter 12.000 Pkt bleibt
und wenn da in den USA keine Trendwende im S&P500 erfolgt
dann gibts nicht nur in den USA Probleme
sondern auch
in Japan
und die Japaner haben Sparguthaben und Geld in den
USA mehr als man vermutet.
angeblich sollen ja einige japanische Banken Probleme
bekommen wenn der Nikkei unter 12.000 Pkt bleibt
und wenn da in den USA keine Trendwende im S&P500 erfolgt
dann gibts nicht nur in den USA Probleme
sondern auch
in Japan
und die Japaner haben Sparguthaben und Geld in den
USA mehr als man vermutet.
Auch auf die Dt.Bank kommen riesige neue Abschreibungen
zu:
16:37:05 14.07.2002 - Presse: Deutsche Bank will bis zu 9 Milliarden Euro aus US-Käufen abschreiben
LONDON (dpa-AFX) - Die Deutsche Bank DBK.ETR plant einem Zeitungsbericht zufolge milliardenschwere Abschreibungen im Zusammenhang mit ihren US-Übernahmen. Das berichtet die Londoner Zeitung "The Business" am Sonntag ohne Angaben von Quellen. Danach könnten sich die Abschreibungen aus den Käufen des Investmenthauses Bankers Trust und des Vermögensverwalters Scudder Asset Management auf bis zu 9 Milliarden Euro belaufen.
Der neue Vorstandssprecher der größten deutschen Bank, Josef Ackermann, wolle mit den Käufen seines Vorgängers Rolf Breuer zu Zeiten des Börsenbooms reinen Tisch machen, hieß es./FX/ar
zu:
16:37:05 14.07.2002 - Presse: Deutsche Bank will bis zu 9 Milliarden Euro aus US-Käufen abschreiben
LONDON (dpa-AFX) - Die Deutsche Bank DBK.ETR plant einem Zeitungsbericht zufolge milliardenschwere Abschreibungen im Zusammenhang mit ihren US-Übernahmen. Das berichtet die Londoner Zeitung "The Business" am Sonntag ohne Angaben von Quellen. Danach könnten sich die Abschreibungen aus den Käufen des Investmenthauses Bankers Trust und des Vermögensverwalters Scudder Asset Management auf bis zu 9 Milliarden Euro belaufen.
Der neue Vorstandssprecher der größten deutschen Bank, Josef Ackermann, wolle mit den Käufen seines Vorgängers Rolf Breuer zu Zeiten des Börsenbooms reinen Tisch machen, hieß es./FX/ar
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