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    Explodiert die Goldbombe nächste Woche? - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

    eröffnet am 23.06.02 17:58:13 von
    neuester Beitrag 15.07.02 06:32:34 von
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      Avatar
      schrieb am 23.06.02 17:58:13
      Beitrag Nr. 1 ()
      Die Royal Bank of Canada vertritt bei den Anlegern
      die Meinung, dass es mit Gold nicht weit her ist.

      Ein interner Bericht (aus dem Board von Thai-Guru)
      sagt hier aber etwas anderes.

      Was glaubt ihr, wenn die von mir erwartete kurze
      Widerstandslinie von rd. 330 Dollar durchbrochen wird,
      was dann noch alles kommt??

      RBC Global Investment Management Inc., a
      division of Royal Bank of Canada, whose gold
      mutual fund is among the best performing in
      the world, has issued a report to private clients
      that fully endorses GATA`s analysis of the
      gold market and the world economy.

      Don`t worry -- GATA hasn`t gone establishment.
      To the contrary, the establishment in the gold
      world is coming around to our central premise:
      that central banks and particularly the U.S.
      Treasury Department have been colluding
      surreptitiously and desperately to suppress the
      gold price and manipulate the gold market.

      The RBC Global Investment Management report
      seems to have been written by someone who has
      been following GATA`s work closely, taking notes,
      and checking out our assertions. It`s more evidence
      that, because of your support, we`re making a big
      difference for the gold cause.

      The report was sent to GATA this week by an
      intermediary and is appended here.

      CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
      Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

      * * *

      RBC GLOBAL INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INC.
      Report on Gold

      Clearly, with gold stocks on a tear as the gold
      price moves laboriously forward battling the
      fervent attempts to suppress it, one must be
      comfortable with the notion that the gold price
      is going to overcome the forces that are aligned
      against it. What is happening today is no different
      than what was happening in the late `60s and the
      very early `70s, when the Gold Pool was in
      existence and the gold price was contained at
      $35 per oz. by a consortium of central banks
      that dumped a considerable amount of gold to
      keep prices down. Today, instead of the overt
      action of yesteryear, it is covert because the
      market is allegedly free, and it has entailed a
      different mechanism, which has resulted in a
      humongous physical short position. In addition,
      there has been an enormous amount of
      derivatives piled on top, which could make the
      ultimate upside explosion all the more spectacular.

      So the question obviously is: "Will the gold rally
      ever begin?" The following arguments emphatically
      suggest that it will more than rally; it will explode to
      the upside.

      1.Unsustainable Supply/Demand Imbalance

      Mine production has flattened out at 2,600 tonnes and
      is beginning to fall due to a lack of exploration, falling
      grade at many mines due to previous high-grading,
      and the closing of older mines as they run out of ore.
      It has been estimated by Beacon & Associates in an
      exhaustive study that if gold prices were to remain
      under $300/oz., production will fall in the neighborhood
      of 25% over the next 5 to 7 years. Scrap supply tends
      to average about 600 tonnes annually. Demand is
      currently estimated to be roughly 4800 tons (primarily
      jewelry) without any investment demand from the
      Western world. The present deficit has been met by
      direct central bank sales (roughly 400 tonnes per
      year) and central bank leasing for mining hedges
      and financial speculation.

      2) Unsustainable Short Position

      Central banks have ostensibly lent increasing
      amounts of gold to earn interest on their reserves.
      However, when one lends at an rate (less than 1%
      generally), the question arises as to whether there
      may be another motivation. As a rising gold price
      stands as a direct repudiation of their alleged
      responsible monetary policy, perhaps this is the
      real reason they have been so aggressive in this
      area. Bullion banks have borrowed gold from the
      central banks for their own accounts and those of
      various speculators, such as hedge funds and
      financial institutions (the carry trade) and for
      producers (mine hedging) and have used
      derivatives to limit their risks and generate
      additional income. The loaned gold has been
      sold into the physical market and is now in jewelry,
      primarily in the Middle East, India, and other parts
      of the Far East. The size of the short position,
      officially acknowledged to be more than 5,000
      tonness by the bullion bank apologists, is thought
      to be well over 10,000 tonnes and may exceed
      15,000 tonnes. To put this in context, this constitutes
      between one-third and one-half of all central bank
      gold, and the vast majority of it is no longer
      accessible.

      3) Unsustainable Low Inflation

      The gold price has a tendency to rise at the first
      whiff of accelerating inflation. CPI inflation has been
      unrealistically low due to the very strong dollar, which
      has underwritten vicious foreign competition and
      removed pricing power in many sectors. However,
      in the final analysis, inflation is a monetary phenomenon
      and the aggressive interest rate cuts and monetary
      expansion to avoid recession/deflation is expected to
      result in re-inflation. Year-to-date, the liquidity injection
      is more than $1 trillion and MZM has grown by 16.5%
      in the past year. To avoid debt default, the Fed must
      err on the side of ease, virtually ensuring upside
      pressure on the CPI. In addition, the "war on terror"
      superimposed on Bush`s mammoth tax cuts and a
      four-year government real rate of spending increases
      that is the greatest since the `60s portends large U.S.
      government deficits, yet another recipe for inflation.

      4) Unsustainable U.S. Dollar

      The U.S. dollar has been levitating for a long time,
      but the underlying fundamentals continue to erode.
      The U.S. current account deficit exceeds $400 billion
      annually, and the continuation of this chronic deficit
      turned the U.S. into the world`s largest debtor as
      most of these deficits are being recycled into U.S.
      debt instruments. However, foreign appetite for U.S.
      securities appears to be ebbing and the chart on
      the U.S. dollar looks very toppy . Gold is already in
      a bull market in U.S. dollars, and an established bull
      market in every other currency. If the reserve currency,
      the U.S. dollar, falters, gold could well be launched
      on the upside as people recognize its status as the
      only "true currency."

      5) Unsustainable Prices for Financial Assets

      Western world investment demand will be the true
      fundamental that drives gold much higher. Gold tends
      to be counter-cyclical and investors buy it when financial
      assets begin to lose credibility. Ownership and pricing
      (P/E) of financial assets are at historic highs and if
      inflation accelerates, the U.S. stock market is extremely
      vulnerable. The ratio of the S & P 500 Index to the price
      of gold reached an all-time high, by a considerable
      margin, in 2000, but this parabola have been broken
      and a downward trend is in effect. At the margin, if a
      small amount of money is moved from financial assets
      into gold, the price effect on gold will be dramatic and
      the ratio will continue to move in gold`s favor.

      6) Increasing Evidence of Unsustainable Gold
      Price Manipulation

      a. Aggressive gold lending, which from an economic
      perspective is indefensible, has filled the
      supply/demand gap.

      b. NY Fed gold has been mobilized when the gold price
      is rising.

      c. Timing of Exchange Stabilization Fund gains/losses
      corresponds to gold price movements.

      d. Audited reports of U.S. gold reserves show unexplained
      variances.

      e. Minutes of Fed meetings confirm officially denied gold
      swaps.

      f. Rules on gold swaps revised but subsequently denied.
      However, individual central banks have repudiated the
      denial.

      g. U.S. gold reserves have recently been re-designated
      twice, initially to "custodial gold" and latterly to "deep
      storage gold."

      h. Statistical analysis of unusual gold price movements
      since 1994 indicate high probability of price suppression.
      The invalidation since 1995 of Gibson`s Paradox -- that
      gold prices rise when real interest rates fall -- suggests that
      the real manipulation began then.

      i. NY gold price movements versus London trading defy
      odds.

      j. Timing of huge increases in bullion bank gold derivatives
      is consistent with gold price declines.

      k. Rapid decline in U.S. Treasury holdings of gold-backed
      SDR certificates is not explained.

      One or two of these factors could be viewed as random, but
      the full body of evidence is overwhelming.

      It would appear that gold is beginning to be viewed as
      money again. Gold is the only monetary asset that doesn`t
      represent somebody else`s liability, and with U.S. real
      short-term interest rates now in negative territory, there is
      no disadvantage in holding gold. Those with a vested
      interest in containing the price of gold -- central banks,
      bullion banks, heavily hedged gold companies -- will not
      die easily, but the tide is moving strongly against them
      and the embedded short positions could catapult the
      gold price higher while imperiling the future of those
      holding the short positions.

      The great rallying cry of the bears is the mobilization of
      even more central bank gold to the tide. Recently, Ernst
      Welteke of the Bundesbank has spoken publicly of the
      Germans selling gold after the initial Washington
      Agreement limiting European central bank gold sales to
      400 tonnes per year expires in late 2004 with the intention
      of redeploying into stocks and bonds. Formerly,
      commentary and action of this sort by central banks (the
      announcement of Swiss sales, the initiation of English gold
      auctions, etc.) devastated the gold market but this elicited
      little more than a yawn. An astute gold analyst in South
      Africa postulated the reason why, perhaps. There are
      strong rumors that Deutschebank has borrowed an
      enormous amount of gold (more than $10 billion worth)
      from the Bundesbank over the years to facilitate the
      carry trade, producer hedging, etc. and it is becoming
      apparent that there is no way they will be able to pay it
      back. Perhaps, to make good on their gold loans, they
      will reimburse the Bundesbank with stocks and bonds
      and Mr. Welteke is readying the German public for
      with his statements.

      In addition, there are enormous dollar reserves building
      up in the Far East, particularly in China, and the Far East has
      acknowledged being significant buyers of gold. So the flow
      of central bank gold is not only one-way. Even the Russian
      Central Bank is on the buy side. The shibboleth of central
      bank sales will undoubtedly be trotted out again, but it is
      losing its sting, particularly if the possibility that as much
      as half of all the central bank gold may already be in the
      market starts to become more widely recognized.

      In addition, in the `70s, when gold was rising sharply in
      price, central banks, after having been heavy sellers at
      $35/oz., sold little or none at higher prices. Central bankers
      are no different than the momentum players; if the price is
      rising, they are more likely to be buyers than sellers.

      One last observation concerns the gold share price action
      prior to the explosion of gold prices in the `70s. Then, as
      now, gold stocks rose to prices that made no sense to
      observers who had a static view on gold prices, but the
      stock buyers knew that sharply higher gold prices were
      inevitable. I suspect that is the case today, particularly
      when one examines the foregoing evidence.

      7) Gold Stocks

      Gold stocks are perceived by many to expensive, but, in
      fact, they are considerably cheaper than they were in the
      late `90s. The central banks` overt attempts to bring the
      gold price down (Swiss sales, British auctions, etc.) at
      that time removed the premium in gold shares and it is
      now gradually being restored as confidence returns to
      the sector. In fact, if the gold prices were to rise sharply,
      I would not be surprised if the price to NAV continued to
      rise due to a shortage of viable gold stocks.

      -END-
      Avatar
      schrieb am 23.06.02 18:33:46
      Beitrag Nr. 2 ()
      Man Schwiegervater sagte gestern, er hätte gehört, man solle jetzt Goldaktien kaufen.

      Auszug aus dem Aktiendepot meines Schwiegervaters:

      Deutsche Telekom
      EM.TV
      SAP
      SAP.SI
      Thiel Logistik
      Brokat
      EADS
      Gold-Zack

      Wenn etwas explodiert, ist hinterher nicht mehr viel davon übrig :)
      Avatar
      schrieb am 23.06.02 18:36:11
      Beitrag Nr. 3 ()
      Dein Schwiegervater hat Babcock vergessen.......


      uiiiiiiii
      Avatar
      schrieb am 23.06.02 18:39:28
      Beitrag Nr. 4 ()
      witzig:D und wie sieht Dein Depot aus?
      Avatar
      schrieb am 23.06.02 19:11:20
      Beitrag Nr. 5 ()
      @Mandrella: In zehn Jahren sprechen wir uns wieder.

      Trading Spotlight

      Anzeige
      JanOne
      2,6400EUR -22,35 %
      Jetzt Countdown zum “Milliarden-Deal” gestartet!mehr zur Aktie »
      Avatar
      schrieb am 23.06.02 19:48:16
      Beitrag Nr. 6 ()
      30 %Cash (Euro, sfr),50 % Goldminen, 20 % Gold (physisch)
      1 Aktie (Post)-weil Geschenk UND

      uiiiiiiiiiiii
      Avatar
      schrieb am 24.06.02 12:37:18
      Beitrag Nr. 7 ()
      @goldpups

      hör bloß auf mit Babcock! :mad:
      Avatar
      schrieb am 24.06.02 12:43:54
      Beitrag Nr. 8 ()
      @DBrix

      Hattest Du nicht vor Jahren mal TVX in Babcock getauscht, oder wie war das nochmal...???
      Avatar
      schrieb am 24.06.02 20:07:54
      Beitrag Nr. 9 ()
      Da liegen die Short-Future-Kontrakte bei Silber
      auf Wahnsinnsniveau, ebenfalls sehr hoch die
      Goldkontrakte
      und was mach Gold: es fällt.

      Es kann doch auch nicht sein, dass alle Börsen abschmieren
      und Gold steigt.
      Das darf einfach nicht sein. Die Jungs müssen sehr
      verzweifelt sein, und schon werden wieder vermutlich
      einige Tausend Futures auf den Markt geschmissen.
      Das mach den Balon der platzt umso grösser.

      Bis dann.
      Avatar
      schrieb am 24.06.02 20:29:54
      Beitrag Nr. 10 ()
      Obwohl doch Gold und Silber heute verloren haben,
      lagen Newmont und Barrick noch unter den Top-
      Werten im S & P 500.

      Warum wohl???

      Ich denke, weil die anderen Werte alle so schlecht
      waren, oder??
      Avatar
      schrieb am 26.06.02 06:17:33
      Beitrag Nr. 11 ()
      War das gestern evtl. eine Bärenfalle bei Gold.

      Im Moment strong auf 324 Dollar. Wird heute wieder
      interveniert??
      Avatar
      schrieb am 05.07.02 06:32:05
      Beitrag Nr. 12 ()
      STeht Gold wieder kurz vor der Wende nach oben.

      Drohendes Börsenbeben durch hohe Schuldenberge
      Experten: Hälfte der 500 größten US-Firmen ist konkursgefährdet. Lage auch in Deutschland kritisch
      Von Holger Zschäpitz
      Berlin – Erdbebenforscher schlagen Alarm. Denn die Börsenseismografen deuten auf ein größeres Pleiten-Beben an den Märkten hin. Ein bewährter Frühindikator ist das Altman-Z-Score-Modell, mit dessen Hilfe die Insolvenzgefährdung eines Unternehmens berechnet wird. Und dieser Indikator, der Bilanzkennzahlen wie Eigenkapital, Gewinn, Verschuldung und Umsatz ins Verhältnis zueinander setzt, verheißt nichts Gutes. Bei 46 Prozent der 500 größten US-Unternehmen liefert das Modell dramatische Werte. Sie notieren unterhalb des kritischen Z-Wertes von 1,81. Im Klartext: Wenn es den Unternehmen nicht gelingt, über die Börse oder bei den Banken frische Gelder aufzutreiben oder eine rasche Ertragswende hinzulegen, steuern sie auf einen Konkurs zu. Auch Deutschland wird nicht vom Beben verschont bleiben. Fast ein Viertel der 30 Dax-Titel befinden sich in kritischer Lage.

      „Die Schuldensituation ist äußerst ernst“, sagt James Montier, Stratege bei Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein. Sie habe sich in den vergangenen Quartalen immer weiter verschlechtert, was sich in den fallenden Z-Werten für den S&P 500 spiegele. „Die angespannten Bilanzen werden die Märkte weiter in Atem halten. Ein rasches Ende des Bärenmarktes ist nicht abzusehen.“

      „Schulden, Erschütterungen und Pleiten“ hat Montier seine jüngste Studie überschrieben. Zwar sei nicht unbedingt damit zu rechnen, dass nun 230 der 500 S&P-Firmen demnächst den Gang zum Konkursrichter antreten müssen. Doch für die Gesellschaften könnte die Liquidität knapp werden. Und genau hier liegt das Problem. Denn im momentanen Umfeld kommen Unternehmen nur sehr kostspielig an flüssige Mittel. Das hat zur Folge, dass jede Kapitalmaßnahme mit kräftigen Kurseinbußen bestraft wird. Hier kann der Z-Wert den Anlegern helfen, die Aktien kapitalbedürftiger Unternehmen zu meiden.

      Bereits in der Vergangenheit lieferte das Modell brauchbare Ergebnisse. So kamen im vergangenen Quartal besonders die Aktien von Gesellschaften unter die Räder, die unter dem kritischen Z-Level von 1,81 lagen. Papiere von Konzernen mit einer besseren Bilanzkonstellation konnten sich dagegen besser behaupten. „Die Prognosegenauigkeit des Konkursindikators liegt zwischen 70 und 80 Prozent“, sagt Montier.

      Ein Blick auf die Z-Werte zeigt, dass sich längst nicht nur die Wackelkandidaten in eine gefährliche Schuldensituation manövriert haben. Zu den üblichen Verdächtigen, den US-Fluggesellschaften oder Telefonfirmen, gesellen sich bei den US-Unternehmen mit den schlechtesten Z-Werten auch angesehene Konzerne wie Sears Roebuck, Kellogg, Dow Chemical, Walt Disney oder AOL Time Warner.

      Auch in Deutschland liest sich die Liste der Gesellschaften, die unter dem kritischen Z-Wert von 1,81 notieren, wie ein „Who is who“ der Wirtschaft. Im Dax trifft es die Telekom, Daimler-Chrysler, die Lufthansa, VW, TUI, BMW und Degussa. Besonders kritisch sieht es für die Telekom aus, deren Z-Wert auf 0,52 abgestürzt ist. Entwarnung kann dagegen bei den Autowerten gegeben werden. Die hohe Verschuldung etwa bei Daimler-Chrysler beruht zum Großteil auf dem Geschäft mit Autofinanzierungen. Rechnet man diese Kredite heraus, liegt der Z-Wert mit 3,7 Punkten im grünen Bereich. So bleibt Anlegern die Hoffnung, dass zumindest in Deutschland das große Börsenbeben ausbleibt.
      Avatar
      schrieb am 08.07.02 21:18:30
      Beitrag Nr. 13 ()
      Bush gibt um 17.00 Uhr Ortszeit Pressekonferenz.

      Thema unbekannt.
      Avatar
      schrieb am 08.07.02 21:39:40
      Beitrag Nr. 14 ()
      17.00 Uhr New York
      + 6 Stunden-Zeitverschiebung = 23.00 Uhr Berlin Time
      Avatar
      schrieb am 08.07.02 21:47:43
      Beitrag Nr. 15 ()
      Das ist wohl nicht gemeint, oder ?

      Die Kurse werden an der Wall Street in der neuen Woche wahrscheinlich Achterbahn fahren, da die Earningssaison beginnen und Präsident Bush die Wall Street besuchen wird.

      Investoren werden genau darauf achten, wie hart Bush über Unternehmensleiter sprechen wird, die gegen Bilanzierungsvorschriften verstoßen und damit einen Skandal nach dem Anderen auslösen. Bush wird sich im Vorfeld der Rede am Dienstag bereits heute mit seinen Wirtschafts- und Politik-Beratern zu einem Treffen einfinden.


      Das erste große Ereignis in dieser Woche ist die Anhörung des CEO Bernie Ebbers und des ehemaligen CFO Scott Sullivan von WorldCom vor dem House Financial Services Committee. Der aktuelle CEO John Sidgmore und der Chairman Bert Roberts werden voraussichtlich zusammen mit dem Salomon Smith Barney Telekom Analyst Jack Grubman im Anschluss dazu Fragen beantworten, die weiteren Aufschluss auf die Situation WorldCom´s geben werden.

      Qwest wird nach einer Ankündigung am Sonntag das Management neu zusammenstellen und auch den Finanzvorstand des Unternehmens entlassen.

      Mehrere Unternehmen werden in dieser Woche ihre Quartalszahlen präsentieren. Darunter auch, als erster Komponent des Dow Jones, Alcoa, die am Montag berichten werden.

      Auf Seiten der Wirtschaftsdaten erwartet man aktuelle Daten zum Einzelhandelsumsatz und zur Produktivität. Ferner werden die neuesten Daten zum Verbrauchervertrauen veröffentlicht.
      Avatar
      schrieb am 08.07.02 23:49:19
      Beitrag Nr. 16 ()
      Worüber wird George W. Bush sprechen? Die Gerüchte sind diametral.

      Amerikaner sind Bürger und Soldaten 1.Klasse und stehen daher über den Menschenrechten? Niederländer sowie Milosevic haben keine Immunität und können daher jederzeit von der NEUEN WELTORDNUNG reglementiert werden.

      Ron Sommer und Jan Ullrich müssen zurücktreten und eine Wahl in D bestimmt die neue Führung in D? Andernfalls es keinen eigenen Staat D gibt!

      Bonuspunkte in der KFZ-Versicherung (KriegsFörderungsZustimmer-Versicherung) für dienliches Verhalten, ohne Schaden einzuklagen?

      Wer hat die Rede geschrieben?
      Homo sapiens? Homo erectus? Scharr-on? Oder gar Busch? (Busch mit sch, ich lasse mir nix andichten!)

      Wie alle warten gespannt, ob er der Inhalt an die letzte Rede heranreicht????

      Liebe Grüße aus Wien
      Avatar
      schrieb am 09.07.02 06:33:15
      Beitrag Nr. 17 ()
      Soll das alles vorbeugend auf die kommenden Schieflagen und Weltwirtschafts-Turbulenzen hinweisen??

      Wer weiß.
      Avatar
      schrieb am 13.07.02 18:58:52
      Beitrag Nr. 18 ()
      Die Lage mit der Verschuldung spitzt sich zu.

      Bush Expects 56 Pct Surge in `02 Deficit

      By Adam Entous

      WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Bush administration said on Friday it expected the federal government to post a deficit of $165 billion this fiscal year, a 56 percent increase over earlier projections reflecting a dramatic drop in tax revenues as the stock market has slumped.

      Conceding it was caught off guard by the steepest decline in receipts since 1955, the administration said it may develop new budgetary models aimed at projecting the impact of stock movements on capital gains and other tax revenues.

      "We have no model at this time, and it will be very difficult, I know, to produce one, but we need to try to understand this phenomenon better," White House budget director Mitch Daniels said.

      While the White House revised upward its 2002 economic growth forecast to 2.6 percent from 0.7 percent and projected a return to surpluses in fiscal 2005, rising deficits in the near term could hurt President Bush and his fellow Republicans in upcoming elections, where small swings could shift control of both the House of Representatives and Senate.

      Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle, a South Dakota Democrat, called the deficit numbers "a disaster."

      Rep. John Spratt, the senior Democrat on the House Budget Committee, asked: "How much worse will these figures have to get before the administration recognizes that its budget is at the source of the problem and there is no easy glide-path back to a balanced budget?"

      At $165 billion, the projected deficit for fiscal 2002, which ends on Sept. 30, would be largest since fiscal 1994. The federal government posted a $127 billion surplus last year.

      "The president deals with the cards that were dealt him," White House spokesman Ari Fleischer said, citing the recession and costs of the war on terrorism as reason for plunging the government into deficits for the first time in five years.

      Officials said a major factor in the bigger deficits was the decline in tax receipts from capital gains -- a finding that could increase pressure on the president to play a more active role in seeking to shore up the stock market.

      Capital gains taxes are generally collected from individuals when assets are sold at a profit. As stock values dropped this year, many investors racked up losses or held onto their shares. As a result, the government collected less.

      The White House said it expected total tax receipts in 2002 to drop by $124 billion, or 6 percent, from 2001 levels. The last time revenues fell at that rate was 1955.

      Bush is already under heavy fire from Democrats for failing to respond forcefully enough to a wave of accounting scandals that have sent the stock market tumbling to lows not seen since 1997. Polls show an erosion in public confidence in the economy and the administration`s economic stewardship.

      DEFICITS REVISED UPWARD

      If public confidence in the economy continues to waver in the run-up to the November congressional elections, analysts said it would be a huge boost for Democrats, who blamed the reemergence of deficits on Bush`s $1.35 trillion tax cut.

      Republicans countered that Bush`s tax cut helped the United States recover from the twin shocks of a recession and the Sept. 11 attacks. They blamed a surge in government spending advocated by Democrats, not lower taxes, for the red ink.

      The $165 billion shortfall for fiscal 2002 was revised up from the $106 billion deficit forecast by Bush in February. Senate Republicans expect a deficit of $152 billion in 2002.

      The White House believes the shortfall in 2003 will run $109 billion, up from the $80 billion deficit projected in February. In contrast, Senate Republicans expect the deficit to climb to $194 billion in 2003. The deficit in 2004 would fall to $48 billion, according to the OMB`s mid-year budget review.

      OMB said it expected a $53 billion surplus in 2005, and a combined surplus of $827 billion between fiscal years 2003 and 2012, assuming Democrats who currently control the Senate stick to the administration`s proposed spending levels.

      The Bush White House is not the first to underestimate the impact of capital gains receipts on federal budgeting.

      Former President Bill Clinton`s projections often missed the mark. But in contrast to Bush, Clinton underestimated the capital gains windfall as the stock market set record highs.

      "In the late 1990s we had surprise revenue windfalls and everyone thought it was because GDP was growing," a Bush administration official said. "But we`re finding that that was not the biggest factor. The bigger factor was capital gains."

      The finding gives Bush new incentive to try to boost the stock market. While polls show Bush`s overall approval ratings remain high, his marks for handling the economy have slipped.
      Avatar
      schrieb am 14.07.02 22:39:38
      Beitrag Nr. 19 ()
      Gold prices fail to follow a neat pattern
      Study finds no common pattern to recent spikes and cycles, reports Paul Taylor
      FT.com site; Jul 14, 2002


      There have been six gold price cycles since it hit an all-time high of $850 per ounce in January 1980. However, a study has found that there has been no common denominator to those subsequent price spikes.

      Research by Straszheim Global Advisors, the US advisory firm, suggests that it is almost impossible for investors to anticipate a gold price rise such as the recent rally, which has seen the price rise from a low of $255 in April last year to $327 early last month.

      "Gold prices have not followed normal business cycles, either here or abroad," says the report. "Sometimes gold`s attraction is its `safe haven` quality. At other times, it is an inflation hedge."

      The firm argues that the current gold price rise has been driven by geopolitical concerns and the potential for wealth destruction in equity and real as sets. Essentially this cycle is a "safe haven" effect.

      The report contrasts the 2001-2002 gold cycle with previous cycles - 1999-2000, 1992-1993, 1989-1990, 1985-1987, 1982-1983. It notes that during the 1999-2000 cycle, when gold prices rose by 24 per cent between June and October 1999, equity prices were still rising sharply and the US economy was very strong. Similarly, during the previous gold price cycle, when gold rose by 22 per cent between March and August of 1993, macroeconomic conditions were solid.

      The two biggest gold price spikes came in the 33 months ending in December 1987 when gold gained 71 per cent - apparently reflecting investors concerns - and in 1982-1983, when gold gained 67 per cent, driven by despair over equities, the economy and inflation.
      Avatar
      schrieb am 15.07.02 06:28:56
      Beitrag Nr. 20 ()
      In Japan brennt die Lunte schon

      angeblich sollen ja einige japanische Banken Probleme
      bekommen wenn der Nikkei unter 12.000 Pkt bleibt

      und wenn da in den USA keine Trendwende im S&P500 erfolgt
      dann gibts nicht nur in den USA Probleme
      sondern auch
      in Japan
      und die Japaner haben Sparguthaben und Geld in den
      USA mehr als man vermutet.
      Avatar
      schrieb am 15.07.02 06:32:34
      Beitrag Nr. 21 ()
      Auch auf die Dt.Bank kommen riesige neue Abschreibungen
      zu:

      16:37:05 14.07.2002 - Presse: Deutsche Bank will bis zu 9 Milliarden Euro aus US-Käufen abschreiben

      LONDON (dpa-AFX) - Die Deutsche Bank DBK.ETR plant einem Zeitungsbericht zufolge milliardenschwere Abschreibungen im Zusammenhang mit ihren US-Übernahmen. Das berichtet die Londoner Zeitung "The Business" am Sonntag ohne Angaben von Quellen. Danach könnten sich die Abschreibungen aus den Käufen des Investmenthauses Bankers Trust und des Vermögensverwalters Scudder Asset Management auf bis zu 9 Milliarden Euro belaufen.

      Der neue Vorstandssprecher der größten deutschen Bank, Josef Ackermann, wolle mit den Käufen seines Vorgängers Rolf Breuer zu Zeiten des Börsenbooms reinen Tisch machen, hieß es./FX/ar


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