PCCW!! Barron`s Artikel vom 14.02.00!!!!!! - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[qualinvestor]

By LESLIE P. NORTON

Suddenly, Hong Kong Telecom, formally known as Cable & Wireless HKT,
is a trading buy. That`s the conclusion after last week`s surprise merger
proposal from Pacific Century Cyberworks. For weeks, there was little news
about a planned marriage between Singapore Telecom and HKT, and in fact,
the stocks of both drifted lower after the January announcement of their
merger plans.

Now it is difficult to know how high HKT might
go, since SingTel and HKT haven`t disclosed
values, beyond broadly suggesting that they might seek a "merger of equals."
Meanwhile, Cyberworks merely said it hired Warburg Dillon Read and Bank
of China to assess an investment in HKT, while Cable & Wireless PLC,
which owns 54% of HKT, simply said it had received a merger proposal. But
on Friday, HKT jumped 23% to HK$21.65. The Hang Seng index climbed
to an all-time high. In New York, the American depositary receipts of
Cyberworks and HKT also surged.

Cyberworks is the Internet holding company run by Richard Li, son of Hong
Kong tycoon Li Ka-Shing. It`s building an Asian broadband network, owns
plenty of investments in Internet startups, and has global aspirations. It also
has a wildly inflated stock price. Over the past 12 months, Cyberworks
shares have gained nearly 8,000%, notwithstanding its lack of earnings. With
a current market cap of nearly $28 billion, it`s a little smaller than HKT`s $35
billion market cap, to be sure, but larger than Amazon.com.

Li fils has embarked on a frenzy of deal-making, too. Last week, he swapped
some of his Cyberworks stock for shares of Japanese cellular giant Hikari
Tsushin that were owned by Hikari`s president, Yasumitsu Shigeta. Hikari is
another market darling, which has been making venture investments in Internet
companies and is tipped to be another Softbank.

A merger of Cyberworks and HKT also would be the latest deal in which
companies use expensive currency to buy content and distribution, a la
America Online and Time Warner.

A marriage of HKT and Cyberworks is more likely to succeed than one with
SingTel, because Cyberworks is also domiciled in Hong Kong, where HKT is
a key strategic asset. And Cyberworks would control a major real asset.
HKT dominates the special administrative region`s local and international
direct-dial and Internet access markets, and has a hefty chunk of cellular
sales. Cyberworks would also get a fiberoptic cable network, and Hong
Kong`s largest Internet service provider. And HKT has a joint venture with
StarTV, which, weirdly enough, Li fils created and subsequently sold to
Rupert Murdoch`s News Corp.

Yet the deal can hardly please owners of Cyberworks, notwithstanding
Friday`s pop. HKT`s growth prospects are much dimmer; for example, it`s
getting killed in the long-distance business. Says Alexandre de Bethmann,
who steers the Federated Asia Pacific mutual fund: "If I were still a
Cyberworks holder, I would not be happy!" De Bethmann sold his
Cyberworks shares in the fourth quarter -- a bit too early, as it happens,
because Cyberworks is up sharply. But since the Time Warner deal, it should
be noted, AOL is considerably weaker.

Of course, Cyberworks might simply break up HKT, keeping the broadband
assets. One possible buyer of the cellular piece: Hutchison Whampoa,
controlled by Li pere, itself a major telecom operator. That could create
problems.

Points out Eric Lau, a Vicker Ballas analyst in Hong Kong: "The group would
have a virtual monopoly over the Hong Kong telecoms market. However, as
[regulators] continue to open up the telecom market to local and foreign
parties through new fixed telecom network licenses, the concern may not be
entirely justified." Late last week, Lau raised his rating on HKT to "speculative
buy."

Another potential purchaser could be China Telecom, which owns 11% of
HKT and may wish to expand its footprint.

Hutchison and its parent, Cheung Kong Holdings, denied speculation about a
plan to buy HKT. Vodafone Airtouch, another rumored potential bidder for
the cellular piece, won`t comment on market rumors. A sale of the cellular unit
to an international powerhouse like Vodafone might spell trouble for HKT
rivals like SmarTone.

Hutchison certainly has the cash to buy pieces of HKT. Hutchison will own
5% of the combined Vodafone/Mannesmann, but that hardly will satisfy Li
pere, says de Bethmann, a Hutchison shareholder. Indeed, de Bethmann
thinks the elder Li "would be willing to sell, which would raise Hutchison`s war
chest to HK$200 billion." In fact, given its Internet and telecom assets,
Hutchison could be worth HK$180, he says, versus HK$142 now.

Much depends on C&W, which has sought an exit from HKT for some time
in its move to focus on data and the Internet. C&W shares soared last week.

It isn`t likely that Cyberworks will make an all-cash bid, or that C&W will
want to own Cyberworks paper. Here`s what some in Hong Kong think will
happen:

Cyberworks could buy 34.9% of Hong Kong Telecom from C&W for cash.
(A 35% bid triggers rules forcing a company to make an offer for all of a
target.)

Assuming a 10% premium, such a stake would cost around HK$100 billion.
It would leave C&W with 19% of HKT. Raising cash would be easy, given
the craze for Cyberworks paper.

Is the SingTel deal dead? Very possibly. Since its proposed merger with
HKT, the stock has drifted. Stephen Parlett of Montgomery Asset
Management likes the valuation, but shies away from the stock. "It is a big, fat
incumbent in a deregulating market, and I have seen that too many times,"
notably with HKT, warns Parlett.

Last week, for the first time since the Asian crisis that began in 1997, South
Korea raised interest rates. The nation has revived smartly since 1997, and
rating agencies are said to be considering upgrading Korea`s sovereign credit
ratings after the April legislative election. In fact, the economy probably rose
10%-plus last year, after contracting 5.8% in 1998.

The rate increase was widely expected, and Korean equities fell 2% last
week. Samsung Electronics was a star performer as it was included in the
brand-new S&P Global 100 index.

Yet life wasn`t always so pleasant, which is why Korea needed to buy billions
of dollars of nonperforming loans from banks and other entities. The loans
were purchased by a government entity, the Korea Asset Management Corp.
Kamco, as it`s known, repackaged them and, among other things, sold them
to investors. Kamco is empowered to buy and resell defaulted loans until
2003. Including $16 billion in defaulted loans from the Daewoo chaebol,
Kamco has purchased $70 billion in obligations.

Last week, Kamco`s chief, Chung JaeRyong, chatted with investors about the
merits of buying South Korean defaulted debt. Many are already converted.
After all, loans that went for 35 cents on the dollar in December 1998 went
up to 50 cents last June, and then to 55 cents in December.

Chung thinks South Korea can sustain the stellar growth rate seen in 1999
over the next two years, given the pickup in the global economy and
widespread restructuring by Korean industry. Sure, he says, the Daewoo
crisis was a blow to investors who believed Korea had fully revived. But, he
says, Daewoo was an anomaly among the chaebol, boosting leverage during
the IMF`s high-rate austerity regime, even as Samsung and Lucky Goldstar
underwent "radical" restructuring. Labor largely supports the reforms, which
have taken on an unstoppable momentum. That won`t change even if
President Kim DaeJung loses support in April.

Will interest-rate increases drive many more companies into bankruptcy?
That`s unlikely.

Chung thinks corporate rates, at 10% last week, might rise as high as 11%.
But he also notes that South Korea "has a policy of maintaining reasonably
low interest rates. What you see today is nothing compared to early `98, when
corporate rates were at 35%! That`s when Daewoo was borrowing!"

[emmaenn]

Bin neu hier,kann mir das mal jemand übersetzen?wenigstens das wichtige.danke emmaenn

[DuskHART]

Hi
Du hast dir ja enorm viel mühe gemacht,aber woher zum Teufel
kriegst Barron`s bereits jetzt?
Schade ,dass kaum Resonanz vorhanden ist.Das liegt glaub an
folgenden Dingen:
1. Barron`s kennt kaum ein Arsch(ist jedenfalls unwahrscheinlich)
2. Um diese Glücksritter auf dein Posting aufmerksam zu machen
must die mit Astronomischen Renditen werben(z.B. 10000%)
3. Nie zuviel Englisch und zuviel Informationen auf einen Schlag.
Bei einer Aufmerksamkeitsspanne von durschnittlich 30 bis 60
Sekunden schalten die meisten ab wenn sie nicht sofort erfahren
ob sich das übersetzen des Textes überhaupt lohnt(Eine ganz
kurze Einleitung hilft deformierten Gehirnen die Konzentration
zu behalten)
Ich wollte nicht klugscheißen sondern nur einen Ratschlag geben
also versteh das nicht Falsch.
PS:
Ich fahr Montags extra zum Kuh`damm(Berlin) um in einem Presseshop
Barron`s kaufen zu können.Woher kriegst du das Teil so früh?

Tiao DuskHART

[qualinvestor]

Hallo Duskhart!

Der Artikel ist für solche Leute gedacht, die sich auch für ein paar Fundamentalinformationen interessieren. Wem der Artiekl zu ausführlich ist braucht ihn ja nicht zu lesen. Ich selbst habe ihn auch nur überflogen (dauert vielleicht 1 min).

Ich habe den Artikel aus www.wsj.com. Dort bin ich registriert (sehr zu empfehlen) und man hat ebenfalls Zugriff auf barrons.com.

Der Aufwand betrug ca. 1 min.

Viele Grüße
Qual