USA: Arbeitslosigkeit faellt von 6% auf 5,7%, auch sonst eher gute news - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[Informator]

USA: alle Parameter sehen positiv aus. Ein staerkerer Aufschwung wird lediglich durch Irak-Investitionszurueckhaltung verzoegert.

Bald ist Saddam erledigt und ein Aufschwung kommt, das gibt einen beispiellosen Rebound. In Deutschland aber nur, wenn CDU und SPD (ohne linken fluegel/Gewerkschaftsverbrecher) sich endlich zusammenraufen und Reformen anpacken.

www.reuters.com
U.S. Economy: January Unemployment Rate Fell to 5.7% (Update5)
By Carlos Torres

Washington, Feb. 7 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 5.7 percent in January, the lowest in four months. Companies added workers for the first time since October as demand for goods and services began to accelerate.

``This number is encouraging,`` said Alfred Broaddus, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. ``To get a solid, ongoing business expansion you have to have stronger growth in employment.``

The jobless rate fell from an eight-year high of 6 percent in December and companies added 143,000 payroll jobs, the most in more than two years. The jobs increase follows a loss of 156,000 in December, more than the government had estimated last month.

``It`s too soon to call it a rebound in hiring, but things are stabilizing,`` said Diane Swonk, chief economist of Bank One Corp. in Chicago.

Companies including Microsoft Corp. and International Business Machines Corp. are hiring more salespeople as demand starts to improve. Adding jobs may boost the consumer spending that accounts for two-thirds of the economy. The U.S. economy is forecast to expand 2.8 percent this year after 2.4 percent growth in 2002, based on the average Blue Chip Indicators Survey forecast.

None of the 65 economists in a Bloomberg News survey had forecast an unemployment rate lower than 5.9 percent. The median forecasts were for a 6 percent rate and 68,000 new jobs after a previously reported decrease of 101,000 in December.

Stocks initially rose after the report, then gave up the gains later on investor concern that a possible war with Iraq would damp U.S. growth. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 65 points, or 0.8 percent, at 4:04 p.m. in New York. The benchmark 10-year Treasury rose 1/16 point, pushing its yield down 1 basis point to 3.94 percent.

The Rate Debate

The 0.3 percentage point decline in the jobless rate to 5.7 percent was the biggest since April 1998, when it fell 0.4 points to 4.3 percent.

Economists are debating whether the unexpected decrease in the jobless rate truly reflects an improving labor market. John Ryding, chief market economist at Bear, Stearns & Co. in New York, said the decline ``suggests that the labor market may not be as weak as we thought.``

Others aren`t so sure. The unemployment rate will probably rise in coming months, according to David Greenlaw, an economist at Morgan Stanley in New York. The economy needs payroll gains of 125,000 or more month after month to ``bring about a sustained decline in the unemployment rate,`` he said. Greenlaw had forecast a 6 percent rate, while Ryding predicted 6.1 percent.

``Maybe job market conditions are stabilizing, but I really don`t see much traction on that side, said David Rosenberg, chief economist for North America at Merrill Lynch & Co.

Consumer Credit

Until the pace of hiring picks up, consumers will be reluctant to borrow or use their credit cards. In December, consumer credit fell $4 billion as households reined in their credits card debt by the most in almost three decades, the Federal Reserve said in a report today. Consumer credit fell at a 2.75 annual rate in December.

A possible war with Iraq may raise concerns that demand will stumble and delay hiring, economists said.

``Firms will not start gearing up until the war situation is resolved,`` said Joel Naroff, president of Naroff Economic Advisors in Holland, Pennsylvania. ``Going into any war, we have some strength to lean on. It is how we come out of it that matters.``

President George W. Bush said that even with the decline in the jobless rate, ``we will not be satisfied until this economy is growing fast enough to employ every man and woman who seeks a job.`` He made the comments at a ceremony to swear in new Treasury Secretary John Snow, who will lead Bush`s effort to win support for a $690 billion tax-cut plan in Congress.

Labor Department Revisions

The report, after accounting for seasonal adjustment factors, showed that retailers added 101,000 jobs after cutting 99,000 in December. Builders added 21,000 jobs after a gain of 3,000 the previous month. Economists said January`s gains reflect the difficulty the government had in calculating the adjustments.

``In December we said it`s not as bad as it looked in the statistics; in January, we can say it`s not as good as it looks,`` Swonk said. ``We`re somewhere in the middle.``

The Labor Department issued its annual benchmark revisions to employment figures with today`s report. The changes took into account adjustments to seasonal variation factors that affected the numbers back to 1998. It also added new information on the size of the labor force derived from the 2000 Census that made some of the data from the household survey ``not directly comparable`` with earlier figures, the department said.

``The changes we put in this month had a negligible effect on the overall rate, so the rate in January can be compared to the rate for other months,`` said Tom Nardone, chief of the division of labor force statistics.

Hiring and Firing

More industries were hiring than firing last month for the first time since May and only the second time in the last 22 months. A Labor Department hiring index covering 347 industries rose to 50.1 in January from 43.5 the previous months. A number greater than 50 signals that more industries are adding jobs than are cutting payrolls.

Employment in service-producing industries, which include retailers, banks and government agencies, rose 143,000 in January after falling 82,000 the previous month.

Factories shed 16,000 jobs in January, the smallest decline in six months. The manufacturing workweek fell to 40.8 hours from 40.9 in December and overtime slipped to 4.1 hours from 4.2.

``The majority of CEOs I talk to across America are going to be conservative in their spending, even employment, until they see the economy turn up,`` John Chambers, chief executive officer of Cisco Systems Inc., the world`s biggest maker of computer servers, said in January.

Faster Growth

They are some signs that may be starting to happen. Consumer spending on goods and services in December had the biggest gain in five months led by a surge in auto sales, the Commerce Department reported last month. New orders to manufacturers have risen for five months and bookings at other industries for been rising for a year, separate reports from purchasing managers this week have shown.

The U.S. economy`s growth will accelerate to a 3.8 percent annual pace in the last three months of the year from a projected 2.7 percent rate this quarter, according to the Blue Chip survey.

Some companies are starting to bump up payrolls. Microsoft, the world`s largest software maker, said last month it`s hiring 1,500 salespeople, one day after IBM, the second-largest software maker, announced it will add 1,750 workers to its payroll.

A rise in hours worked may be an early signal that employment will soon pickup. Average weekly hours worked rose to 34.2 hours from 34.1 in January, the report showed. Economists had expected a rise to 34.2 hours, according to the Bloomberg News survey.

Average Hours, Wages

``Typically you get an improvement in the length of the workweek before you see a real ramp up in employment,`` said Douglas Porter, a senior economist at BMO Nesbitt Burns in Toronto. The rise is ``a very encouraging sign.``

Workers` average hourly earnings were unchanged at $14.98 after a 0.3 percent increase the previous month. It was the first time since April 1993 that wages had failed to rise. Economists had expected a 0.3 percent increase in hourly wages.

In the year ended in January, earnings were up 2.7 percent, the smallest increase since the 12 months ending May 1995.

``Fortunately, the increase in employment and total hours means that personal income still grew at a reasonable rate last month, at least enough to maintain consumer spending near`` current levels, said Joseph LaVorgna, a senior economist at Deutsche Bank Securities in New York.

[Bodenseemann]

Und sonst auch eher gute News???

Hallo?
Lebst du auf dem gleichen Planeten!
Auf diesem hier wird die mächtigste Millitärrmacht der Erde bald einen Krieg anfangen.

Also wenn du ökonomische Interessen über das Leben stellst, dann tust du mir leid.

BM

[hferch]

Die Amis sind ja auch sehr kreativ was Statistiken angeht. Vor allem ist alles auf Pump finanziert.
Die Defizitkriterien der EU würden sie ei weitem verfehlen.

[pco]

Schwachsinn, was Du schreibst # 3: Das Defizit der USA betraegt 3 % , das von D 3,8 bzw. 3,9...je nach Quelle. Zu beruecksichten bleibt weiterhin, dass es primaer auf 2 Faktoren zurueckzufuehren ist: 1. Enorme Steuerentlastungen, die sich aber auszahlen werden, 2. exorbitante Ruestungsuasgaben. Aber: Das Verbrauchervertrauen wird in den USA zurueckkehren, und das Defizit wird weit unter 2 % liegen. Warum: ganz einfach: Binnenmarktanteil USA ca. 70 %. D ist enorm vom Export abhaengig und wird ergo keine Besserung erfahren.

#2 Das ist ein Aktienboard und keine Kulisse fuer Traumtaenzereien. Die Geschichte der Menschheit wird von Kriegen beherrscht. Moralisieren war schon immer fuer den Arsch ....in diesem Zusammenhang faellt mir aber ein Zitat ein. Heiner Geissler, um es milde auszudruecken, sicher keine Leuchte, eher die Schaumschlagerabteilung, sagte: "Der Pazifismus der 30er jahre hat zu Auschwitz gefuehrt".- Recht hat er, ausnahmsweise...Denk mal drueber nach...

[Punk24]

#4: Ich scheiße auf dein lächerliches Depot und wünsche dir die baldige Pleite.

[SchwarzZocker]

Auszug aus den Boardregeln:

2. Beleidigungen, sexuelle Anspielungen, rechtsradikale Inhalte etc. sind zu unterlassen.

Gilt das auch für Punk24?

[pco]

Du bist mir ja schon oefer aufgefallen Punk24 - wieso suchst Du Dir fuer Dein frevelhaftes, proletarisches Verhalten kein Kindergartenboard ?

Laecherlich ist wohl immer eine Definitionsfrage...Im Verhaeltnis zu Depots von FKF oder anderen mag das zutreffen, gemessen am Durchschnitt sichernicht, aber das spielt ja auch keine Rolle.
Die Verluste in meinem Depot kann ich verkraften. Ich habe eine solide Ausbildung (Lehre + Studium) und die zahlt sich eben aus...Apropos Ausbildung. Dein Posting spiegelt Deinen Bildungsstand wieder - ich kann leider auch nichts dafuer, dass Du durchs Baumschuldiplom geflogen bist, sorry, aber so spielt das Leben nun mal.

#6 Ja, es ist hoechst aergerlich, dass manche Leute eben nicht sachlisch argumentieren koennen und sich durch Beleidigungen hervortun muessen. Aber entlockt es mir doch ein Laecheln zu wissen, was fuer arme Wuerstchen sich dahinter verbergen...