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AES Gener best performer in March; also in 4QAES Gener’s output in the SIC grid was up YoY in March (+26%), led mainly from coal-fired
generation (+31% YoY) and LNG replacing diesel-fired output (–23% YoY), though its hydro
output was down 22% YoY, which we expect to increase the company’s variable costs.
AES Gener’s continue to be a net seller in the spot market driven by its higher own generation
and its lower level of contracts, which together with LNG output would partially compensate
the higher variable costs. In the


Endesa Chile’s
own generation was down 3.1% YoY in the SIC grid in March, on hydro
dispatch down 20% YoY – on low water resources – forcing it to be a net buyer in the spot
market despite its now lower level of contracts. Conversely, thermal generation was up 27%
YoY (mainly 14% higher LNG output and restore of coal output YoY): we expect higher
variable costs due to higher fuel prices and energy purchases, YoY.




GasAtacama’s own
generation was up 6% YoY, in the SING grid, generating mainly with LNG (replacing diesel)
acquired from the Mejillones LNG facility, though still buy energy in the spot market, assuming
higher generation costs. In 4Q, Endesa Chile’s own generation in the SIC grid was down 8%
YoY, though with a poorer generation mix (hydro: –19%; thermal: +16%; YoY), being obliged to
buy energy in the spot market increasing the variable costs. Gasatacama’s (SING grid) own
generation during the quarter was up 4% YoY. Still, it had to purchase energy in the spot


Colbun’s
generation output was up 38% YoY in the SIC, led by 353GWh of LNG generation
(vs. 195GWh last year) and to a sharp increase in diesel output YoY (hydro down 30% YoY),
assuming higher fuel costs, partially compensated by energy sales in the spot market at
attractive prices. In 4Q, its generation output was 18% higher YoY, driven by a poorer
generation mix (thermal: +118%; hydro: –25%; YoY), despite the higher own generation
Colbun was forced to buy energy in the spot market, assuming higher generation costs.


Generation by E.CL, operating in the SING grid, was down 8% YoY, with a weaker generation
mix, led by coal-fired generation 6% lower YoY, partly offset by natural gas generation output
107% higher YoY – from LNG supplied by GNL Mejillones. We expect this on balance to mean
higher variable costs on fuels and energy purchases. In 4Q, its generation output was down
5% YoY – LNG output 100% higher YoY was totally compensated by coal and diesel output 9%
and 58% lower YoY, respectively, which forced it to be a net buyer in the spot market.

[lvb28]

ENDESA, Chile macht mehr recht als schlecht die Bewegung des IPSAs mit,

Doch in der langfristigen Perspektive sieht der Wert vielversprechend aus

Nach ihrem Investitionsplan ist eine Steigerung der Kapazitaet um 770 MW bis 2014 vorgesehen.
Es wird erwartet, dass ihre Kostenen sichtbar gesenkt
und das EBIT um 370 bp langfristig erhoeht werden kann

Obwohl das Ergebnis fuer das 2.Halbjahr 2010 ncht berauschend war, bewirkten doch die geringeren Kosten eine beachtenswerte Ausweitung des EBITs von 7,7% im Jahre 2011
Fuer dieses Jahr sollte das Ergebnis so hoch legen, wie im vergangenen Jahr - so jedenfalls verlautete es aus dem Unternehmen

Fuer einen Fond dessen Chile Depot 15 Werte umfassen sollte, wird (auch mittelfristig) der Kauf von ENDCESA mit einem Anteil von ca 8% empfohlen

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SIC Generation Grew 4.1% YoY as of Apr 12 to 3,822 GWh — solid but slower
than prior month (Mar 12, +6.9% YoY). YTD 2012 (first four months) +7.2% to
16,238 GWh while LTM +5.3% to 47,210 GWh. In terms of Apr 12 generation mix
hydro accounted for 30.8% (-1.4 pp YoY from 32.2% in Apr 11), thermal 68.9% and
wind 0.4% reflecting seasonally challenging April for hydro generators.
 On Hydrology Indications Point to Neutral Phase — While readings for energy
potential and physical volumes stored in reservoirs are still historically weak the
neutral phase persists (i.e. absence of La Niña since Mar 12, source: DMC, ABoM)
This bodes well for medium-term prospects for hydroelectric generation in the SIC
as Chile enters the rainy season.
 Seasonally weaker hydroelectric power generation pushed up spot market
costs again — The average marginal cost in the SIC as of Apr 12 was US$265 /
MWh (+15.4% MoM, +27.8% YoY). Higher spot market price was driven by
increased demand for electricity twinned with the need to satisfy this demand via
relatively more expensive thermal sources (especially diesel-based power
generation, +47% MoM) at the margin. Better prospects for hydroelectric generation
in addition to the commissioning of two coal-fired plants before the end of the year
(Santa María I and Bocamina 2) should help drive down spot market prices over the
medium-term.



Buy-rated Endesa Chile saw slight market share decline but outlook remains
solid — We continue to anticipate an improvement in performance in Chilean
operations on improving hydrology at Endesa Chile as we move deeper into 2012.
We are encouraged by the continued absence of “La Niña” (neutral phase), which
will hopefully support greater rainfall than the previous two years and replenishment
of water resources for reservoirs. Extension of the rationing decree was in line with
the Chilean government’s conservative stance on this issue but is only until Aug 12
this time. In Apr 12 Endesa Chile generated 1,377 GWh in the SIC (+7.5% YoY).
Contribution from hydro was broadly flat (+3.9% YoY) but down significantly MoM
(23.1%) on lower output from both run-of-river and reservoir-based plants. Of total
dispatch hydro represented 49.1% (-1.7 pp YoY), thermal 50.4% (+2.2 pp YoY) and
wind 0.5% (-0.5 pp YoY). Endesa Chile’s market share in Apr 12 was 36.0% (-1.4 pp
MoM vs. 37.4% in Mar 12).






1. LTM Generation Statistics – SIC Figure 2. Monthly Generation Mix – SIC
Generation
(GWh) Total
% Hydro % Thermal % Wind % Ch. YoY
Apr-11 44,828 44.1% 55.1% 0.7% 7.9%

May-11 45,065 42.6% 56.7% 0.7% 8.1%

Jun-11 45,165 41.6% 57.7% 0.7% 7.8%

Mar-12 47,059 45.3% 54.0% 0.7% 5.7%

Apr-12 47,210 45.1% 54.2% 0.7% 5.3%