Chernog & Effektenspiegel - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[autaris]

So, alle die es immer noch nicht wissen und weiterhin wie wild Chernog kaufen:

DIE SIND PLEITE,LIQUDITATION ERFOLGT ENDE APRIL MIT €2 !!!!

Nachzulesen unter:http://www.brokerage.nikoil.ru/servlet/download/d000320n.pdf…

Viel Spaß noch !!!

autaris

[hornwatz]

Hi,

wenn das stimmt(so ganz glaube ich nicht daran),dann möchte
ich gerne die Gesichter der Hoffmann-Sektenmitglieder in
anderthalb Monaten sehen
Es wäre nicht die erste ES-Katastrophe,Bolko hat schon oft
genug in die Schlacke gegriffen,ohne danach noch ein
Sterbenswörtchen darüber zu verlieren.

[the dreamer]

An hornwatz:

Hier bin ich. Aber wie sagte Börsenaltmeister Kostelany immer, wenn man 10 Aktien hat müssen 6 mehr steigen als die restlichen 4 fallen und von dieser Differenz kann man dann gegebenenfalls gut leben. Sag mir einen Guru der immer richtig liegt und alles weis. Ich meine alle Thieme ( kein weitere Kommentar ) Leuschel ( sagt seit Anfang der 90 den Großen Crash voraus) und von den NM Gurus á la Försch,Mühlhaus und Prior ganz zu schweigen.

Außerdem welcher verknüftige Anleger kauft blind alle Empfehlungen die Irgendjemand abgibt, woher soll man das ganze Kapital denn nehmen.

Ich für meinen Fall schwöre seit Anfang 96 auf den ES (Depot Anteil lag mal Ende 98 bei über 40%, durch Kursverluste und Kurssteigerungen der anderen Aktien jetzt nicht mal mehr 10% Depotanteil) und meinem anderen Lieblingswert wo ich schon seit über 2 Jahren die Werbetrommel rühre Oracle ( z.Z. ca 30% Depotanteil).

Es grüßt the dreamer

[hornwatz]

Hallo The Dreamer,

ein vernünftiger Beitrag von Dir,auf der Ebene kann man mit
Euch Hoffmanianen ernsthaft diskutieren.Ich bin ganz Deiner
Meinung,kein Guru hat immer recht,und die Förtschs und Thiemes
und Leuschels sind mir auch nicht viel lieber.Mich stört es
halt nur,wenn jemand nicht zugeben kann,daß er auch mal daneben
liegt.Und im konkreten Fall der Rußlandaktien(hab selber auch
welche,aber Lukoil) springen da Leute auf den Zug,die sich
des Risikos der Fahrt nicht bewußt sind.Hier gab es schon vorher
einen euphorischen Thread über russische Ölwerte ,der aus der
Lektüre des ES entstanden ist,und man muß den Leute dann erst
mal klar machen,daß es da nicht nur eine Riesenchance gibt,sondern
auch ernsthafte und große Gefahren.-Was ist denn nun mit Cherno-
gorneft,weiß da jemand noch etwas über die angebliche Pleite?
In die oben angegebene Internetadresse kommt man mit meinem
Uraltrechner nicht vernünftig rein.Ich habe zwar keine Chernos
aber wüßte dennoch gerne,wer genau da was genau schreibt!

[the dreamer]

es handelt sich hierbei um eine PDF Datei die mit dem Akrobade Reader gelesen werden kann. Ich habe die Texte soweit es ging rauskopiert und hintenangehängt.

Es grüßt the dreamer



C a p i t a l M a r k e t s
Nikoil 7 (095) 705 90 48 E- mail: sales@ni koil.ru Page 1
Weekly Russia Update Monday, 20 March 2000, # 10 (22)
RTSI: 218.88( & 2.64%) RTS Vol., $ mn: 153.67 ( & 13.75%) Urals, $/bbl: 25.96( & 7.48%) RR/$: 28.43 ( & 0.35%)
EMBI Global: 183.07 ( % 0.30%)
The BIG Picture – Mopping up Chechnya
Acccording to the army’s top brass, military operations in Chechnya are over, but clashes will continue for a long time,
while the army flushes out remaining pockets of resistance. Federal powers have already begun establishing local
administrations, stocked with Kremlin loyalists. Once they are firmly in place, elections for a regional legislature and
State Duma deputies from Chechnya will be held. According to interim president Vladimir Putin, Chechnya is to have
the same status as any other subject of the Russian Federation.
Bulls and Bears _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________Page 2
The market cooled down last week, following its recent rally. Stock prices firmed at the new levels. Eurobonds ended
the week stronger, as macroeconomic numbers remained favorable and CBR reserves rose $400 mn. OFZ yields
continued to fall, with the ruble rising slightly against the dollar. The CBR recently claimed that the ruble appreciated
slightly in March, but low inflation makes this insignificant in real terms. A 10% decline in oil prices did not change
investors’ attitude towards Russia.
Politics and Money_______________________________________________________Page 3
Government clarifies its position on key economic policy issues
Industries and Companies _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________Page 3
Oil and Gas / Surgutneftegaz LT BUY (maintained) ST BUY (maintained)
Surgutneftegaz preliminary 1999 results better than expected and 2000 to be even better
Oil and Gas / Chernogorneft LT SELL (downgraded) ST SELL (downgraded)
Chernogorneft likely to liquidated by end of April-early May
Market Wrap-up and Fixed Income Prices______________________________Page 6

********************************

Charts

********************************
N i k o i l C a p i t a l M a r k e t s W e e k l y R u s s i a U p d a t e 2 0 . 0 3 . 0 0
Nikoi l 7 (095) 705 90 48 E- mail: sal es@ni koi l . ru Page 2
Bulls and Bears
Investors
interested in
regional telecoms
Company specific
news moved
individual stocks
Chernogorneft
liquidation is
corporate
governance
timebomb
Last week, the following trends were observed in the equity market:
 Investors started paying more attention to second-tiers, mainly regional telecoms
 Spreads between prefs and ords, which widened during the rally because large funds
were mainly buying blue chips, have started to narrow
 In the absence of market moving events, some stocks reacted to company specific
news:
 Kuzbassenergo shares appreciated after it was announced that that the
company reached an agreement with its creditors
 Chernogorneft shares lost more than 25% on Friday when it became clear that
the company is going to be liquidated. We reiterate our SELL recommendation
on the stock as, according to our estimates, investors will receive less than $2
per share, even though they’re currently quoted at $8.
 LUKOIL shares outperformed UES and Rostelecom – a trend that we believe
reflects the fundamentals of the companies. Nevertheless, for the year, oil
stocks still lag energos and Rostelecom.
Politics
Just one week remains before the election. Most pre-election bets have already been made,
so market activity may remain low this week. The military and FSB may help boost support
for Putin’s candidacy by claiming to have made more advances in Chechnya.
Corporate governance
The market’s response to recent developments in the Chernogorneft case remains mixed. On
the one hand, no formal violation of shareholders’ rights has taken place, as the company is
de jure bankrupt. On the other hand, the news may cast a shadow over Sidanco and its
policies. Sidanco and its former management are mostly liable for the bankruptcy of
Chernogorneft, since the holding company had been draining funds out of its subsidiary prior
to the August 1998 crisis. At that time, the company was under different management
(InterRos). Nonetheless, Chernogorneft’s minority shareholders could argue that if the
bankruptcy procedure and the subsequent sale of the company were carried out illegally, as
Sidanco has been arguing, then why would their status change as a result of the deal with
TNK? Chernogorneft’s bankruptcy is the first instance of a Russian company with relatively
liquid shares being liquidated. This situation is further aggravated by the fact that the
company has outstanding ADRs. If minority investors are stripped of their holdings, Sidanco’s
reputation and that of its subsidiary, Udmurtneft, will plunge. It is also possible that much of
the improved sentiment among investors and perception of reduced corporate risk since
Putin took the helm will be undone. To avoid such consequences, Sidanco may compensate
Chernogorneft minority shareholders somehow. See our ‘oil and gas section’ for more details
on the Chernogroneft-Sidanco case.
Conclusions
The market will probably remain calm during the pre-election week, as most bets are in, but
we forecast growth in the mid term, likely to be liquidity-driven and benefiting blue chips most.
We advise investors to pay more attention to LUKOIL, since the negative impact of the
auction on share prices will pass in a week or two. Regional telecoms are seeing more
action, as many investors are now searching for ‘high-tech Russian securities’ and assume
that they have internet and cellular network exposure. Our view is far less optimistic, since
new technology could make existing networks worthless in the next 10 years and ‘Russian
high-tech’ subsidiaries are usually controlled by regional interests, not shareholders. The
Chernogorneft case may have a negative impact on the market, and we advise investors to
watch the case closely; we reiterate our SELL recommendation on Chernogorneft. However,
we maintain our BUY recommendation on Udmurtneft, though the company’s stock could
suffer if investor confidence in Sidanco is undermined.
Russian Stock Market Highlights
Market Capitalization,
$ mn (RTS basis)
Monthly RTS turnover,
$ mn
Monthly ADR`s turnover
(Reuters PRA Index) , $ mn
With Gazprom Without Gazprom
3/3/00-3/10/00 53,647.03 45,261.60 178.17 11.53
3/10/00-3/17/00 52,017.97 44,065.73 153.67 13.18
Change, % -3% -3% -14% 14%

N i k o i l C a p i t a l M a r k e t s W e e k l y R u s s i a U p d a t e 2 0 . 0 3 . 0 0
Nikoi l 7 (095) 705 90 48 E- mail: sal es@ni koi l . ru Page 3
Politics and Money
The government has clarified its position on key economic issues, namely the
investment policy, tax reform and the state debt policy.
FDI and capex on
the rise in 2000
Number of taxes
to be cut from
150 to 30
Stabilizing state
debt is one of the
government’s
priorities
Debt service
without foreign
refinancing in
1Q00
Domestic
borrowings will
be short-term and
inexpensive
1999 was the first year in the last decade to post an increase in total capex in Russia (up
4.5%); FDI also increased to $4.26 bn, 26.7% y-o-y. According to existing contracts, FDI
should be no less than $5 bn in 2000. Nevertheless, Russia’s investment climate still needs a
lot of improving. Last week, the Advisory Council on Foreign Investments met in Moscow,
attended by the government, the leadership of the WB and EBRD and top managers of major
foreign companies working in Russia. The meeting inspired the government to draft a number
of measures to bring more FDI into Russia: creation of an insurance system for foreign
investments, acceleration of the switch to IAS for banks and the largest companies (at least
those whose shares are traded at the domestic exchanges) before the end of 2000 and tax
reform.
The main aspects of the tax reform include:
Lowering the number of taxes from 150 to 30,
Decreasing the total tax burden while simultaneous increasing collections levels and
Continuing to rely on indirect taxes (i.e. VAT) as the main source of tax revenues.
It is also assumed that turnover tax will be replaced with profit tax and the role of the federal
center in redistributing tax revenues among regions will grow. The tax reform as it is
envisioned will also be supported by lower state expenditures, a reformed budget system
(change in the distribution of revenues between various budget levels – federal, regional and
municipal) and the development of a federal entity that will be responsible for monitoring all
domestic debt issues (i.e. corporate, state, regional, etc).
The state debt/GDP ratio fell 40% in 1999 to 109% as at January 1, 2000. According to the
2000 budget, the limit of domestic state debt was set at RR623.3 bn as at January 1, 2001.
As yet, there is no upper limit for external debt in 2000, though the Finance Ministry
suggested setting it at $158 bn. If the average rate will be RR30/$ and GDP 5%, then the
debt/GDP ratio will fall to 96% by the end of 2000.
In 2000, Russia has to amortize $4.9 bn in external debt (total debt service payments are
$10.2 bn, of which $5.3 bn is interest payments). When the 2000 budget was approved, ;6 bn
in foreign financing was expected for covering the budget deficit. In 2000, Russia can only
have access to official (IFIs and government) credits. The government hopes to attract $2.6
bn from the IMF, up to $2.2 bn from the WB and the EBRD and $1.2 bn from foreign
governments. In 1Q00, Russia implemented the budget without external borrowing, reducing
the need for external financing in 2000 to about $4 bn. Given 1Q00 trends, we can expect
Russia’s dependence on external financing to decrease even further.
The Finance Ministry is actively trying to rebuild investors’ trust in state debt securities, as
well as increase the limited supply of ruble-term financial instruments needed to sterilize
excess liquidity in the banking system. In 2000, the Ministry will issue state debt with yields of
no more than 18% (target inflation rate), making borrowings essentially free. Most of the debt
issued will be short-term: of RR175 bn in planned issues, RR130 bn is to be redeemed in
2000.
Industries and Companies
Recommendation Oil & Gas / Surgutneftegaz Long-term Short-term
Buy Buy
Last price, $ MCap $ mln P/S 1999 P/E 1999E*
0.28 7,213 1.97 5.88
Surgutneftegaz announces better than estimated preliminary financial results for 1999
and expects 2000 to be even better.
Surgutneftegaz
plans to extract
776,496 bbl/d, 3%
up y-o-y, in 2000
Surgutneftegaz disclosed its preliminary sales figure for 1999. According to Surgutneftegaz
vice-President Gennady Burtsev, who represented Surgutneftegaz at the “Investments in
Russia” conference in New York, the company generated $3,278 mn in revenues in 1999,
7% more than expected and 23% up y-o-y.
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The larger revenues will enable Surgutneftegaz to boost its activities further in 2000. The
company forecasts total costs to rise from $1.7 bn in 1999 to $2.09 bn in 2000. The additional
funds will go to the Sakha Republic in East Siberia, where Surgutneftegaz will boost natural
gas extraction and export to China. The company also plans to accelerate the Kirishi Refinery
upgrade and construction of the oil product export terminal at Batareynaya Bay.
Surgutneftegaz plans to produce 776,496 bbl/d in 2000, 3% up y-o-y. To maintain the upward
trend, the company will invest $670 mn in its upstream business in 2000, versus $400 mn
last year, 68% up y-o-y. In 2000, Surgutneftegaz will bring on line 4 new fields having total
recoverable reserves of 711 mn bbl.
Surgutneftegaz’ steadily rising production will lead to improved financials in 2000. We expect
revenues to rise at least 30% in 2000 y-o-y to $4.2 bn. We confirm both our LT and ST BUY
recommendations.
Dynamics of Surgutneftegas’s annual revenues growth (%)
-50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40
1997
1998
1999
2000E
Source: Surgutneftegaz, NIKoil estimates
Recommendation Oil & Gas / Chernogorneft Long-term Short-term
Sell Sell
Last price, $ MCap $ mn P/S (1999 E) P/E (1999E)
7.5 200 1.06 4.0
Chernogorneft will likely be liquidated at the end of April – beginning of May 2000.
This spring, TNK is scheduled to transfer Chernogorneft’s assets back to Sidanco, ending the
drawn out conflict with Sidanco and BP/Amoco. At the end of last November, TNK used
bankruptcy proceedings to purchase Chernogorneft for $176 mn and turned it into a new
company, TNK-Nizhnevartovsk.
Sidanco shareholders immediately questioned the legality of the deal and filed several suits
in Russia and the US. TNK’s violation of shareholders’ rights resulted in a $500 mn Eximbank
loan being frozen and seriously damaged its already tattered reputation. In December 1999,
an amicable settlement provided an exit for both companies.
According to the settlement, TNK promised to return Chernogorneft’s assets to Sidanco in
1H00. In return, TNK shareholders would receive a 25% + 1 in Sidanco.
The return of Chernogorneft’s assets to Sidanco does not, however, imply the resurrection of
the company itself. Last week, TNK and Sidanco confirmed that Sidanco would receive 100%
of the shares of TNK-Nizhnevartovsk. Thereby, Sidanco will become the full owner of a new
company that just happens to have all of Chernogorneft’s assets but none of its liabilities.
Once TNK-Nizhnevartovsk has been transferred to Sidanco, Sidanco shareholders’ lawsuits
against TNK will be dropped and the liquidation of Chernogorneft begun.
According to TNK, Chernogorneft shareholders will receive no more than $2/share from the
liquidation. As a result, we downgrade our ST and LT recommendations on Chernogorneft to
SELL.

[hornwatz]

Hallo the Dreamer,


besten Dank für die Mühe,ich merke immer mehr,daß ich es bei
Euch mit vernünftigen Menschen zu tun habe.-Der kurzfristige
Kursverlauf von Chernogorneft läßt ja wirklich nicht darauf
schließen,daß das Papier in einem Monat nur noch 2 Dollar
wert sein wird.Ich jedenfalls glaube das nicht.

Viele Grüße Hornwatz

[VanHelsing]

!

Dieser Beitrag wurde vom System automatisch gesperrt. Bei Fragen wenden Sie sich bitte an [e-mail]

[jen]

Laut Tharsus Telefoninfo vom 28.03.00, 13:00

ist Chernogorneft in bester Verfassung und erwartet eine Gewinn von 7-10 Euro pro Aktie, was bei einem Kurs von 17 EO ei KGV von ca 2,6 (spottbillig) ausmacht.
Gestern meldete Tharsus, dass Cherno ALLE Schulden zurückgezahlt habe.
Die gegenwärtige Kursschwäche sei (wohl auch auf Grund der verwirrenden (Falsch?-)Meldungen) eine (vielleicht letzte) Einstiegschance.
Nach dem Knacken der 30 EO Marke sei der Weg nach oben offen.
Laut Dr.Reitmeier ist das nächste Kursziel 50 EO.

Alle geklammerten Textteile sind meine persönlichen Ammerkungen.
Liebe Grüsse an alle die Cherno haben und an alle, die jetzt noch einmal eine Chance bekommen!

jen

Informations-Service: 0190 570541

[mr.tycoon]

Ich habe die Hotline auch abgehört (1,21 DM /min)und bin auch von
Cherno überzeugt. Der gesamte Markt wird bis auf 500 Punkte konsolidieren (immerhin 40% anstieg seit o1.00--wegen Wahlen)und dann geht die Post ab . So schnell kann man gar nicht einsteigen.
Wäre ja nicht das 1.x in Moskau . Deswegen kauft antizyklisch und
bewahrt 3-4 Monate Ruhe , dann sind wir alle fett im Geld und
können die Gewinne laufen lassen.
Wer es nicht ganz so heiß mag ( Cherno ) sollte sich unbedingt
ROSTELECOM (912293) anschauen , denn auch Moskau wird den
INTERNET-BOOM spüren.



MR.T

[VanHelsing]

Akt. ES:
Laut Effecten-Spiegel ist Cherno jetzt schuldenfrei. KGV ist 2,5. Gewinn je Aktie 7$.
Gruß
VH