DAX: Die Jahresendrally beginnt am Montag - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[luckman_ch]

Nun, an der Börse gibt es gewisse Gesetzmässigkeiten....

Fakt 1:
Der DAX hat in den letzten 2 Wochen wegen steigendem Euro
einiges an Terrain verloren.
Am Freitag ist nun nach den US-Konjunkturdaten der Euro zum Dollar
fast 1.4% gesunken, was logischerweise in der Umkehrfunktion zu
einem Rebound vom Dax führt. Anfangs nächser Woche werden wir
nach dem starken Anstieg des Euro weitere Abgaben sehen, was den
Dax weiter anheizt.

Fakt 2:
In letzten 2 Wochen vor Weihnachten schneidet die Börse typischer-
weise besonders gut ab.
Fondsmanager und andere professionielle Investoren frisieren ein
letztes Mal ihre Zahlen, um ihren Anlagekunden eine schöne
Performance zu zeigen. Window Dressing ist angesagt.
Seit 1988 gab es in dieser Zeitspanne nur zweimal, wo die Börse zurück ging.
In allen anderen Jahren ist es in den beiden letzten Handelswochen
an den Börsen aufwärts gegangen.

Fakt3:
Die makroökonomischen Daten aus den USA haben mit den neu
erstellten Stellen ausserhalb der Landwirtschaft mit 132'000
positiv überrascht und haben DJIA und Nasdaq positiv schliessen
lassen.

6600 Punkte bis Ende Jahr sind im Bereich des Möglichen.

[Dorfrichter]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 26.049.578 von luckman_ch am 09.12.06 14:26:55

Schönschön, jetzt muß´t mir noch die speziellen Werte reinschreiben, die besonders gut laufen.....werden...für 1 Jahr.

[Friseuse]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 26.050.843 von Dorfrichter am 09.12.06 14:50:41

[urlHier]http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/charts/big.chart?symb=XE%3A663200&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&ma=2&maval=200&uf=0&lf=16384&lf2=1024&lf3=2&type=128&size=2&state=8&sid=470475&style=350&time=20&freq=1&comp=NO%5FSYMBOL%5FCHOSEN&nosettings=1&rand=3801&mocktick=1[/url] [urlzucktschon]http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/charts/big.chart?symb=XE%3A663200&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&ma=2&maval=200&uf=0&lf=16384&lf2=1024&lf3=2&type=128&size=2&state=8&sid=470475&style=350&time=9&freq=1&comp=NO%5FSYMBOL%5FCHOSEN&nosettings=1&rand=1986&mocktick=1[/url]

[big_mac]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 26.051.547 von Friseuse am 09.12.06 15:03:35

doch nicht etwa bei MOR

[Brokerseven]

Bis Jahresende 6.515 Punkte und dann mitte Januar 2007 runter auf 6.200 pkt

[nachtschatten]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 26.049.578 von luckman_ch am 09.12.06 14:26:55

Nun, an der Börse gibt es gewisse Gesetzmässigkeiten....

stimmt unwidersprochen. und das zentrale paradigma lautet: ich brauche einfach jemanden, der mir mein papier noch teurer abkauft

Die makroökonomischen Daten aus den USA haben mit den neu
erstellten Stellen ausserhalb der Landwirtschaft mit 132\'000
positiv überrascht und haben DJIA und Nasdaq positiv schliessen
lassen.

die payrolls waren zwaren leicht besser als erwartet (siehe dazu die kommentare aus dem Barrons unten), auch wenn die offizielle arbeitslosigkeit von 4,4 auf 4,5 gestiegen ist. erledigt haben sich damit aber hoffungen auf hinweise für zinssenkungen bei der FED-sitzung diese woche: However, with employment strength, the Fed will not be in a rush to cut interest rates just yet - und von daher dürfte sich die euphorie darüber in grenzen halten und erstmal jeder gespannt auf die FED-sitzung warten - nicht zuletzt auf CPI und CPI-core.

consumer sentiment: unter den erwartungen. und das in der zentralen shopping season des jahres. naja.

nur gut dass im DAX die 6363 so gut verteidigt wurde - diesesmal





Highlights
Today's employment report was mixed but healthy overall with labor cost inflation easing somewhat. The report clearly was stronger than expected. Nonfarm payroll employment posted a 132, 000 gain in November, following a revised 79,000 rise in October and 203,000 boost in September. December's figure came in above the consensus expectation for a 100,000 increase. October's payroll number was revised down 13,000 from the initial 92,000 estimate while September was revised up 55,000 from the prior estimate of a 148,000 gain. Over September and October, the net revision was 42,000 up. Payroll employment is up 1.3 percent on a year-on-year basis for November, compared to 1.5 percent for October.

Labor costs have been a key focus of Fed officials. The key labor cost indicator in the employment situation report is average hourly earnings, which rose 0.2 percent in November, following a 0.4 percent gain in October. The consensus had forecast a 0.3 percent rise for November. Average hourly earnings are up 4.1 percent on a year-on-year basis in November, compared to 3.9 percent in October. The average workweek in November was reported at 33.9 hours, unchanged from October, and equaling the consensus forecast.

The civilian unemployment rate edged back up to 4.5 percent from 4.4 percent in October. November's 4.5 percent was in line with the consensus expectation of a 0.1 percentage point rise to 4.5 percent. Household employment was still strong but slowed to a rise of 277,000 in November after October's 437,000 surge. Household employment is up 2.1 percent on a year-on-year basis, compared to 1.9 percent in October. The labor force jumped 383,000 in November, while the number of unemployed rose 106,000. The employment-population ratio stood at 63.3 percent, unchanged from October.

Within the payroll survey gains were healthy in services while construction and manufacturing were weak. Overall service-providing industries were up 172,000, following a 141,000 increase in October. Gains were led by professional & business services, up 43,000; retail trade, up 20,000; wholesale trade; up 11,000; and financial activities, up 11,000. Goods-producing jobs fell 40,000 with construction down 29,000 and manufacturing down 15,000. Natural resources & mining rose by 4,000.

Aggregate hours in manufacturing fell 0.4 percent in November, following a 0.2 percent dip in October.

Today's employment report shows a healthy economy outside of softness in construction and manufacturing. The Fed will like the slowing in wage inflation. However, with employment strength, the Fed will not be in a rush to cut interest rates just yet. The numbers are above what the Fed sees as long-term potential. Today's report should be a negative for the bond markets and should be a plus for the dollar, which is under pressure from interest rates being lifted overseas. Equity markets may or may not like the numbers, depending on whether healthy employment numbers offset the possible delay in rate cuts by the Fed.

Market Consensus Before Announcement
Nonfarm payroll employment rose a moderate 92,000 in October while wage inflation came in at a strong 0.4 percent. The unemployment rate, reflecting a tight labor market, fell to 4.4 percent from 4.6 percent in September. While a moderate payroll jobs increase is needed to support a soft landing, the markets will be paying attention to signs of whether the labor market is remaining tight or showing any signs of softening. Fed Chairman Bernanke and other Fed officials have emphasized that tight labor markets are a concern. Also, with recent weakness in manufacturing as seen in durables orders and various private surveys, markets will be paying attention to factory jobs and factory hours worked. In October, manufacturing jobs fell by 39,000 while the aggregate index for hours worked in manufacturing was flat.

Nonfarm payrolls Consensus Forecast for November 06: 100,000
Range: 40,000 to 150,000

Unemployment rate Consensus Forecast for November 06: 4.5 percent
Range: 4.4 to 4.6 percent

Average workweek Consensus Forecast for November 06: 33.9 hours
Range: 33.8 to 33.9 hours

Average hourly earnings Consensus Forecast for November 06: +0.3 percent
Range: +0.2 to +0.3 percent

http://online.barrons.com/page/barrons_econoday.html

[nachtschatten]

2 charts zum samstagnachmittag, DOW tages- und wochenchart, einfach nur wunderschön, oder? the sky is the limit
... ...

[luckman_ch]

Nun, dass die FED vielleicht die Zinsen nicht so
schnell senkt ist gerade dass Gute an der Sache, denn
es hilft dem Dollar unter die Arme und macht dem DAX
Feuer unter dem Hintern.

[luckman_ch]

[Friseuse]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 26.055.124 von big_mac am 09.12.06 16:17:10

Kannst auch eine Allianz nehmen



Eine prozyklische Investmentlaune von Allianz selbst würde passen. Viel verkaufen geht nicht mehr, vielleicht bei Anleihen Um Morphosys rum haussieren die Peers, werden teils gleich ganz von der Börse gekauft und die Situation hat ein vergleichbares historisches Vorbild

1999

[nachtschatten]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 26.062.878 von luckman_ch am 09.12.06 21:37:31

Nun, dass die FED vielleicht die Zinsen nicht so
schnell senkt ist gerade dass Gute an der Sache,

die argumentation läuft aber seit beginn der 1600-punkte-ralley im DOW seit juli genau in der anderen richtung: mässige wirtschaftsdaten = hoffnung auf sinkende zinsen = steigende aktienkurse. und genau das hat sich am freitag erledigt.

im übrigen ist die zinsdifferenz zum euro mit der EZB-zinserhöhung letzten donnerstag um weiteren viertelpunkt gestiegen - trichet hat ausserdem weitere zinserhöhungen für 2007 angekündigt:

Trichet kündigt weitere Zinserhöhungen an
Börse Stuttgart - 08.12.2006

Diese Handelswoche war insbesondere vom Warten auf den US-Arbeitsmarktbericht sowie von der Pressekonferenz der Europäischen Zentralbank geprägt. Am Donnerstag hat die EZB erwartungsgemäß die Leitzinsen um 25 Basispunkte auf 3,50 Prozent erhöht. Auf der anschließenden Pressekonferenz sagte EZB-Präsident Jean-Claude Trichet, dass sich die Zinsen noch immer auf niedrigem Niveau befänden und konjunkturell unterstützend seien. „Dies spricht eigentlich für weitere Zinserhöhungen“, so Sabine Traub, Leiterin des Rentenhandels an der Stuttgarter Börse. Die Projektionen für Inflation sind allerdings nach unten gerichtet: Aufgrund der niedrigen Rohölpreise liegt die Inflationsprognose der EZB für 2007 nun bei 2,0 Prozent, für 2008 bei 1,9 Prozent. „Nach diesen Aussagen gehen viele Marktteilnehmer von zumindest einer weiteren Zinserhöhung im kommenden Jahr aus. Weitere Zinsschritte sind dann situationsabhängig“, sagt Traub.

http://www.eltee.de/kolumne_id.php?id=1174


warum sollte dann der dollar steigen - zumal, von den aktuellen payrolls mal abgesehen, die wirtschaftdaten jetzt nicht unbedingt auf rosige zeiten deuten. consumer credit auf 14-jahres-tief - das passt schon ganz gut zum aktuellen consumer sentiment. und die verschiebung, die sich bei den payrolls abzeichnet - abbau im manufacturing (construction und autos), dafür ein zuwachs im servicebereich (mcdonalds und wal-tüten-packer), nicht gerade das beste zeichen.

nach der FED-sitzung sind wir schlauer die FED hat hier einen ganz originellen spagat vor sich: kommts demnächst zu einer zinssenkung, obwohl die inflation ja weiterhin über der comfort zone liegt - ist das nichts anderes als ein eingeständnis dass die wirtschaft nicht mehr läuft, dann wird der euro durch die decke gehen.

spannend bleibts auf alle fälle

[Zorniger]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 26.080.109 von nachtschatten am 10.12.06 15:01:19

die argumentation läuft aber seit beginn der 1600-punkte-ralley im DOW seit juli genau in der anderen richtung: mässige wirtschaftsdaten = hoffnung auf sinkende zinsen = steigende aktienkurse.

das gegenteil ist richtig. schau dir die reaktion freitag vor einer woche auf den ism manufacturing an.

mfg

[luckman_ch]

Wirtschaft
Der deutsche Exportboom hält an
08.12 09:52

Die deutsche Wirtschaft führte im Oktober Waren im Wert von 84,1 Milliarden Euro aus. Das sind 22,6 Prozent mehr als im Vorjahresmonat.

http://www.cash.ch/news/story/449/105648/40/40

[arolo]

Wenn das eine RAlly werden soll müssen am Montag aber schon ganz fett die Reifen quietschen!!!

Vielleicht 'en Spätstart mit Karambolagechancen für die Dax-Position??

Viel GLück

arolo

[Friseuse]

Passend zum Thema ist der Artikel von [urlRethfeld]http://www.wallstreet-online.de/nachrichten/nachricht/1983124.html[/url]

[nachtschatten]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 26.084.744 von Zorniger am 10.12.06 16:54:19

das gegenteil ist richtig. schau dir die reaktion freitag vor einer woche auf den ism manufacturing an.

der DOW hat als reaktion auf den ism manufacturing zwar im minus geschlossen bei 12194 - war im tagestief aber über 100 punkte darunter bei 12089. ich schätze einfach mal, dass die durch den ism gestiegenen chanchen auf eine zinssenkung da durchaus eine rolle gespielt haben: The futures market was pricing in 28% odds of a cut to 5% in January and an 80% chance of a cut in March. Before the ISM report, there was no chance of a second cut in May, but after the report the odds of a further cut to 4.75% in May jumped to 43%.

freitag nach den payrolls: Odds of interest rate cut by Q1 2007 at 36% after jobs data - donnerstag lag der wert noch bei 48%.





CURRENCIES
Dollar hits new lows vs. major currencies after ISM
Buck at new 20-month euro low, 14-year sterling low; euro/yen at new high
By Wanfeng Zhou, MarketWatch
Last Update: 4:26 PM ET Dec 1, 2006



NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The dollar plunged to a new 20-month versus the euro and 14-year nadir versus the British pound and dropped its lowest level in almost four months against the yen Friday, on growing expectations the U.S. economy is slowing enough for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates soon.
Traders sold dollars after a report showed the U.S. factory sector contracted in November for the first time in more than three years, raising fears that the economy is headed for sharp slowdown. The disappointing manufacturing data come a day after data showed business activity in the key Chicago area decelerated to its slowest pace in more than three years in November. See full story.
"Manufacturing conditions in the U.S. as a whole contracted for the very first time since April 2003," said Kathy Lien, chief strategist at FXCM. "Yesterday...the Chicago PMI numbers rang the recessionary bells for the very first time. Today, the ISM number confirms that the bell was rung for the right reason." "The only major rise that we saw was in prices paid, but this will not be enough to keep the Federal Reserve hawkish for long," she said. "The dollar is continuing to suffer as a result."
Late in New York, the dollar was quoted at 115.41 yen, compared with 115.74 yen late Thursday. It had earlier dropped to 114.96 yen, the lowest level since Aug. 10. The euro changed hands at $1.3333, from $1.3239, after touching $1.3348, the highest level since March 18, 2005.
For the week, the dollar lost 2.4% versus the euro and eased 0.5% against the yen.
The British pound traded at $1.9793, compared with $1.9652, after rising as high as $1.9848, the loftiest level since 1992. The dollar changed hands at 1.1929 Swiss francs, compared with 1.1987 francs. In intraday trading, the dollar dropped to 1.1898, the lowest level since May, 2005.
The euro fetched 153.89 yen, compared with 153.23 yen, after rising to 154.10, a new record high See live foreign-exchange rates.
The Institute of Supply Management's manufacturing fell to 49.5% in November from 51.2% in October. The decline was unexpected. The consensus forecast of estimates collected by MarketWatch was for the index to rise to 51.8%. Readings below 50 indicate contraction. The prices paid index rose to 53.5% from 47.0% in the previous month. See full story.
Separately, spending on U.S. construction projects dropped by 1.0% in October, as outlays on private residential construction matched a low hit in July 2006, the Commerce Department said. The decline beat the 0.3% drop expected by economists. See full story.
Rate cut odds rise
Financial markets now expect the Federal Reserve to begin aggressively cutting interest rates in the first half of 2007, according to the federal funds futures market at the Chicago Board of Trade.
The futures market was pricing in 28% odds of a cut to 5% in January and an 80% chance of a cut in March. Before the ISM report, there was no chance of a second cut in May, but after the report the odds of a further cut to 4.75% in May jumped to 43%. The Federal Reserve last voted to hold overnight interest rates steady at 5.25% in late October. The Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed's policy-setting panel, is expected to hold rates steady at the Dec. 12 meeting.
Charles Plosser, president of the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank, said Friday that one month's ISM drop doesn't make a trend and that manufacturing is still on track for expansion. He said that "inflation is still higher than I'd like it to be." The Fed remains concerned about inflation, he said.
Brian Dolan, director of research at Forex.com, a division of Gain Capital, said traders will be keenly watching next week's U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for further clues to the outlook for U.S. interest rates. The European Central Bank is widely expected to raise its interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point to 3.5% next week.
"I'm look for some consolidation" next week, Dolan said, adding that "the euro is probably going to remain relatively resilient."
Sterling shrugs off soft sentiment data
At the same time, the British pound hit a fresh 14-year high versus the dollar, shrugging off a report showing a poll of U.K. manufacturing sentiment fell to 52.6 points in November from 53.5 points in October, its lowest reading in eight months.
Any figure above 50 indicates economic expansion, but Royal Bank of Scotland, which sponsors the poll, said the figures were limp. "It looks like the expansion of the U.K. manufacturing sector peaked during mid-2006, and is quickly making its way back toward trend-like performance," it said.
There's debate among analysts on whether the pound can reach the important $2 mark or not. See related story.
Dolan said the recent sharp rise in the pound can be partly explained by M&A flows. What's more, on the fundamental side, U.K. consumer and growth data of late "has been on the weak side" and this suggests the Bank of England will remain on hold at next week's meeting and "likely into the end of the 1Q 2007."
The pound may have "a bit more potential in terms of a downside correction," he said.
Euro/yen hits new record
Also on Friday, the yen came under pressure, hitting a new record low against the euro, after a government report showed Japanese consumer prices rose at slower pace than expected in October, although the headline index figure managed to stay in positive territory.
Excluding fresh food, Japan's nationwide core CPI rose 0.1% in October from a year earlier, according to data released by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications.
The gains were below consensus expectations of a 0.2% rise, and fell below September's CPI increase of 0.2% and a 0.3% rise in August. See story on Japanese CPI.
"The troubling aspect of the Japanese data is that jobs are not translating into stronger consumer spending," said Boris Schlossberg, senior currency strategist at FXCM. "It appears that the consensus call for a January rather than a December hike is going to be correct," he said. "The only factor that could alter that scenario is a strong Tankan result on December 15."

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/dollar-slumps-new-lows…

[nachtschatten]

mal noch ein kommentar von Morgan Stanley zur EZB-politik. warum das ganze am donnerstag gefeiert wurde - keine ahnung wird jedenfalls ne spannende woche - viel spass und erfolg !



Euroland
More ECB Tightening to Come
December 08, 2006

By Elga Bartsch | London


The unanimous decision by the ECB Governing Council to raise the refinancing rate by 25bp to 3.5% this week was widely expected. The subsequent press conference proved to be more controversial, as it gave somewhat conflicting signals. Thereby, ECB President Trichet created room for flexible monetary policy manoeuvres by the ECB next year. But, on balance, the tone of the press conference was more hawkish than many in financial markets had expected. Our read of the press conference is that the ECB is still determined to hike interest rates further in 2007, despite the recent rise in the EUR and an expected moderation in growth. Even after this week’s rate hike, the ECB still regards its policy as accommodative. The ECB staff projects HICP inflation hovering around 2% over the next 24 months, based on market expectations for another refi rate hike next year. The risks to these staff projections are seen as being to the upside by the Council. Hence, the Council will monitor these risks “very closely” going forward and will act in “a firm and timely manner” to ensure that these inflation risks do not materialise. On the whole, the press conference has not induced us to alter our call for further ECB tightening in 2007.

In the ‘traffic-light system’ of signalling the timing of the next move, which the ECB has religiously stuck to throughout this tightening campaign, the phrase “monitoring risks very closely” suggests that another rate hike could come as soon as February. But messages regarding the timing of the next move at the press conference were somewhat conflicting. While the introductory statement deliberately used a phrase that the ECB knew the markets would interpret as hinting towards another hike in February, ECB President Trichet seemed to rule out a move at the February meeting at one stage during the Q&A session. In addition to the usual mantra that the ECB does not pre-commit to a certain course of action in advance and can act at any time if needed, he insisted that interpreting the statement as signaling a move in February was “not the correct one”. His intervention confirmed our view that the next interest rate hike should only come in March, when new staff projections will be available, when a first assessment of the impact of the German VAT hike will be possible and when the ECB will have a better idea of how soft the soft patch in the US economy is going to be and what repercussions it would have on currency markets. Later, however, the ECB President seemed to backtrack from ruling out a move in February by saying that he “will say nothing on February, absolutely nothing”. So, we will probably have to look to future public interventions by ECB Council members to clear up the confusion.

Nonetheless, it seems to us that the ECB is surprisingly close to another interest rate hike — certainly closer than the market has been expecting. The inflation risks that the ECB will likely monitor closely in the coming months include a stronger-than-expected pass-through from past oil price increases, further increases in indirect taxes and administrative prices, wage developments and continued rapid money and credit growth in the face of already ample liquidity. Compared to these upside risks to price stability, the downside risks to the growth outlook are a secondary concern, according to the ECB President. These downside risks stemming from a potential renewed rise in crude oil prices, protectionism and “disorderly development owing to global imbalances” (the ECB’s elegant description of a USD crash) only matter to the extent that they affect the inflation outlook, the ECB President elaborated.

Another ECB rate hike, which would lift the refi rate to 3.75%, would probably bring the policy rate to the neutral level in the view of the ECB. We gather this from the fact that the phrase “further withdraw of monetary accommodation will be needed” was missing in the statement. In our view, the absence of the phrase does not mean that the ECB is unlikely to hike further. Rather, it means that the next move will not imply a withdrawal of monetary accommodation. The “need to act in a firm and timely manner”, highlighted by the ECB, shows that it is willing to go further if needed. We are currently forecasting a total of 50bp of ECB rate hikes in 2007. Our forecast is above current market expectations and above what the ECB assumes in its staff projections. But market expectations of, at most, one more interest rate hike in 2007 might prove to be too low. But a second rate hike in 2007 is not a done deal yet either.


http://www.morganstanley.com/views/gef/index.html

[Friseuse]