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Danke, Jojo!
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 38.726.976 von privateer am 13.01.10 14:46:39So ist es!
http://www.mineweb.co.za/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page72102?o…
RARE EARTHS, ALL HOT AND BOTHERED
The Rare Earth Revolution has investors stampeding, sometimes to mega-hit ‘Avatar'
Hallgarten & Company analyst Christopher Ecclestone suggests that Rare Earths bugs may find something eerily familiar about the humans' quest for "Unobtainium" in the fantasy film "Avatar."
Author: Dorothy Kosich
Posted: Wednesday , 13 Jan 2010
In the blockbuster movie Avatar the obscure object of desire is an element called "Unobtainium, worth $20 million per ounces.
Metals analyst Christopher Ecclestone suggests the hunt for Unobtainium storyline reminds him "of some of the talk surrounding Rare Earths (REE) these days."
Since China shouted the equivalent of "fire" in the cinema early last year by threatening to ban REE exports, Ecclestone said the mining space has been in a ferment trying to get its brain around elements (we would not call them metals...yet) that they have not heard of since high school chemistry and seemingly not in some schools of mines."
THE REE REVOLUTION
"The word ‘technology' has a special resonance for U.S. investors and they charged at the REE space without knowing what the technological issues were," he noted. Rare Earth Elements are a collection of 17 chemical elements on the periodic table, mainly Scandium, Yttrium and the 15 lanthanoids. The phrase "rare earth" arises from the rare earth metals from which they were first isolated in the late 18th Century.
In general group properties include:
--At elevated temperatures many rare earths ignite and burn vigorously
--Relatively soft metals
--Many REE compounds fluoresce strongly under ultraviolent light
--Reacts with water to liberate hydrogen gas, slowly in cold water, quickly in hot water
--Most REE compounds are strongly magnetic
---High melting and boiling points
REE usages can include batteries, camera lens, glass and ceramics, self-cleaning ovens, magnets, lasers, computer memory, fluorescent lamps, vanadium steel, chemical agents, and hydrogen storage.
China's massive Bayan Obo mine in Inner Mongolia hosts the world's largest known REE resource, which is a major key to China's dominance of the market for REE. The mine was first discovered as an iron ore deposit in 1927.
As Ecclestone noted, "The Chinese have been ripping REE out of the ground for many decades now at Bayan Ono and the question arises about how long this pace can go on. Is the reserve boundless? Is it getting more expensive to extract as times goes on? Has the mine peaked?"
Ecclestone said the Chinese discussion of banning REE exports was "clearly a not too subtle shakedown of the end user. ...The Chinese action had an entirely different effect and have now alerted all and sundry to their creeping dominance of the REE space. This shout went beyond the corridors of the corporate world and found resonance in Washington and other capitals where suddenly it was realized that a whole industry had been forsaken to the Chinese."
THE REE/URANIUM CONNECTION
Ecclestone asserts that Rare Earths actually aren't that rare. Nevertheless, he suggested there are more nuanced complications which included:
--The real business is in the downstream processing
--Many of the new up and comers in the REE space have uranium and/or thorium to deal with in their mix
--Many REE projects "are years away from production"
"A lot of the current stories in the REE space are re-inflated uranium stories," Ecclestone noted. "REE commonly appear with uranium and in excellent grades. It even more commonly appears with thorium, a much more lightly radioactive element. The problem is one has to justify the uranium mine on its own merits before the REE can ever come out of the ground."
"Beware uranium (and/or thorium) will probably not be a barrier to exploration of concurrent REE in emerging economies, but could well stymie mine plans in areas near populations or watersheds in Western counties," Ecclestone warned.
Contrary to its name, REE deposits could be geographically scattered around the world, except for South America where deposits have yet to be identified. "In any case, five years from now, we should have 40-50% of world production emanating from Australia, Canada, the US and South Africa," Ecclestone suggested. "Then there is the possibility that other exotic locales like Kyrgyzstan, Sweden, Greenland and Argentina may be in the mix."
"It is somewhat ironic that we are hearing of all these new deposits around the globe and hearing nothing of new sites in China," he quipped.
NOT EVEN 20 REE NAMES
Names in the REE space include Australia's Lynas Corporation (AX: LYC) and Arafura Resources (AX: ARU), Great Western Minerals Group (TSX-V: GWG) of Saskatchewan, A/S Silmet of Estonia, Triebacher AG of Austria, Avalon Rare Metals (TSX: AVL) and Neo Material Technologies (TSX: NEM), both headquartered in Toronto, Molycorp, which is based near Las Vegas, Nevada, Wyoming's Rare Element Resources (TSX-V: RES), Stans Energy Corp (TSX-V: RUU), which operates mainly in Kyrgyzstan, Greenland Minerals & Energy (AX: GGG) offering projects in Greenland, Tasman Metals (TSX_V: TSM) with projects in Scandinavia, Quest Uranium (TSX-V: QUC) and Ontario's Pele Mountain (TSX-V: GEM), which are both based in Toronto.
While Ecclestone acknowledged that the REE rush has produced a proliferation of names, it is "nowhere near the 80-plus uranium miners that appeared out of the ether in 2007 when that element took off."
"In the REE space, there are not even 20 names and some clearly are not holders of viable deposits as long as they are heavily uranium dependent or have deposits that do not justify the capex on plant that may be required," he advised.
"We also reiterate that the race will go to the five or eight companies that get into production first," he stressed.
"The object of this note is not to direct investors towards one company or another but rather to highlight some of the more practical issues that are often obscured in the flim-flam of chemistry, locations and the excitement of the moment." Ecclestone declared.
"Demand for REE is rising; the Western World dropped its guard and finds itself temporarily dependent on a less than certain source of supply. This should have been foreseen," he concluded.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dazu ein Kommentar aus dem HC-Thread von Heute.
Grüsse JoJo
http://www.hotcopper.com.au/post_single.asp?fid=1&tid=108345…
Hi cengizuykun
Interesting read and just further confirms my thoughts, which are:-
2009 was the year that broadcast the rare earth phenomenon to the world, hundreds of articles pointing out why it was so important or how dire the situation was with supply. Lots of techo graphs showing clearly that demand is strong and going to get stronger, a real need exists. Not hard to see why rare earth was a popular investment to look at.
2010 will be the year of discounting some players who are not setting up refining and supply infrastructure systems, on the other side of this coin is the premium that will be placed on those who do have advanced structures. This will be the year where the market looks deeper into the rare earth story to find out what is actually happening, who, where and when the real rare earth story unfolds.
At some point in 2010, perhaps way after the kg basket has shot past $30 a spotlight is going to shine on who can actually deliver this stuff and when. In my opinion it is this spotlight on the real confirmed suppliers which will make last years interest in rare earth look timid in comparison to the natural consequence of what many want and few have. The shear complexity of mining, stock piling the concentrate onto the very complex and detailed requirements for the refinery, these things take years to draw up let alone to plan a plant with all the vigorous regulatory requirements for a RE refinery, it is a massive task which takes many years.
Yet Lynas has it all and to get to this point all they did was a tiny dilution, yes a tiny dilution! which not only breathed life into Lynas but gives it the first cab off the rank status which will be worth every penny and more, we will look back and say wow how cheap was that
So what do Lynas have.
A massive resource.
A massive stock pile of mined and separated concentrate.
All permits to transport and export.
Refining plant in Malaysia being constructed (not planned or proposed) with all design and build contracts set in place. All permits and regulatory requirements in place, which includes a very attractive tax regime for a period of 12 years.
As many product sales contracts as they want right now all signed with no upper limit on prices, on my last look these were sitting around $350m US.
Most if not all these important things you would expect your average competitor to have, I have never been lucky enough in business not to have competitors snapping at my heels for all of my 40 years in business, but for the life of me I have never seen a perfect storm develop like this, the REE price will go ballistic until somehow someone produces an excess of refined REE's and I just cannot see where it is going to come from in any short time. And if the worlds economy does better than just mildly recover this situation will only take on an exponential.
I am waiting for some sideswipe to my thinking which throws it all out, some left field play that changes the landscape, but right now I don't see one.
philh9
http://www.mineweb.co.za/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page72102?o…
RARE EARTHS, ALL HOT AND BOTHERED
The Rare Earth Revolution has investors stampeding, sometimes to mega-hit ‘Avatar'
Hallgarten & Company analyst Christopher Ecclestone suggests that Rare Earths bugs may find something eerily familiar about the humans' quest for "Unobtainium" in the fantasy film "Avatar."
Author: Dorothy Kosich
Posted: Wednesday , 13 Jan 2010
In the blockbuster movie Avatar the obscure object of desire is an element called "Unobtainium, worth $20 million per ounces.
Metals analyst Christopher Ecclestone suggests the hunt for Unobtainium storyline reminds him "of some of the talk surrounding Rare Earths (REE) these days."
Since China shouted the equivalent of "fire" in the cinema early last year by threatening to ban REE exports, Ecclestone said the mining space has been in a ferment trying to get its brain around elements (we would not call them metals...yet) that they have not heard of since high school chemistry and seemingly not in some schools of mines."
THE REE REVOLUTION
"The word ‘technology' has a special resonance for U.S. investors and they charged at the REE space without knowing what the technological issues were," he noted. Rare Earth Elements are a collection of 17 chemical elements on the periodic table, mainly Scandium, Yttrium and the 15 lanthanoids. The phrase "rare earth" arises from the rare earth metals from which they were first isolated in the late 18th Century.
In general group properties include:
--At elevated temperatures many rare earths ignite and burn vigorously
--Relatively soft metals
--Many REE compounds fluoresce strongly under ultraviolent light
--Reacts with water to liberate hydrogen gas, slowly in cold water, quickly in hot water
--Most REE compounds are strongly magnetic
---High melting and boiling points
REE usages can include batteries, camera lens, glass and ceramics, self-cleaning ovens, magnets, lasers, computer memory, fluorescent lamps, vanadium steel, chemical agents, and hydrogen storage.
China's massive Bayan Obo mine in Inner Mongolia hosts the world's largest known REE resource, which is a major key to China's dominance of the market for REE. The mine was first discovered as an iron ore deposit in 1927.
As Ecclestone noted, "The Chinese have been ripping REE out of the ground for many decades now at Bayan Ono and the question arises about how long this pace can go on. Is the reserve boundless? Is it getting more expensive to extract as times goes on? Has the mine peaked?"
Ecclestone said the Chinese discussion of banning REE exports was "clearly a not too subtle shakedown of the end user. ...The Chinese action had an entirely different effect and have now alerted all and sundry to their creeping dominance of the REE space. This shout went beyond the corridors of the corporate world and found resonance in Washington and other capitals where suddenly it was realized that a whole industry had been forsaken to the Chinese."
THE REE/URANIUM CONNECTION
Ecclestone asserts that Rare Earths actually aren't that rare. Nevertheless, he suggested there are more nuanced complications which included:
--The real business is in the downstream processing
--Many of the new up and comers in the REE space have uranium and/or thorium to deal with in their mix
--Many REE projects "are years away from production"
"A lot of the current stories in the REE space are re-inflated uranium stories," Ecclestone noted. "REE commonly appear with uranium and in excellent grades. It even more commonly appears with thorium, a much more lightly radioactive element. The problem is one has to justify the uranium mine on its own merits before the REE can ever come out of the ground."
"Beware uranium (and/or thorium) will probably not be a barrier to exploration of concurrent REE in emerging economies, but could well stymie mine plans in areas near populations or watersheds in Western counties," Ecclestone warned.
Contrary to its name, REE deposits could be geographically scattered around the world, except for South America where deposits have yet to be identified. "In any case, five years from now, we should have 40-50% of world production emanating from Australia, Canada, the US and South Africa," Ecclestone suggested. "Then there is the possibility that other exotic locales like Kyrgyzstan, Sweden, Greenland and Argentina may be in the mix."
"It is somewhat ironic that we are hearing of all these new deposits around the globe and hearing nothing of new sites in China," he quipped.
NOT EVEN 20 REE NAMES
Names in the REE space include Australia's Lynas Corporation (AX: LYC) and Arafura Resources (AX: ARU), Great Western Minerals Group (TSX-V: GWG) of Saskatchewan, A/S Silmet of Estonia, Triebacher AG of Austria, Avalon Rare Metals (TSX: AVL) and Neo Material Technologies (TSX: NEM), both headquartered in Toronto, Molycorp, which is based near Las Vegas, Nevada, Wyoming's Rare Element Resources (TSX-V: RES), Stans Energy Corp (TSX-V: RUU), which operates mainly in Kyrgyzstan, Greenland Minerals & Energy (AX: GGG) offering projects in Greenland, Tasman Metals (TSX_V: TSM) with projects in Scandinavia, Quest Uranium (TSX-V: QUC) and Ontario's Pele Mountain (TSX-V: GEM), which are both based in Toronto.
While Ecclestone acknowledged that the REE rush has produced a proliferation of names, it is "nowhere near the 80-plus uranium miners that appeared out of the ether in 2007 when that element took off."
"In the REE space, there are not even 20 names and some clearly are not holders of viable deposits as long as they are heavily uranium dependent or have deposits that do not justify the capex on plant that may be required," he advised.
"We also reiterate that the race will go to the five or eight companies that get into production first," he stressed.
"The object of this note is not to direct investors towards one company or another but rather to highlight some of the more practical issues that are often obscured in the flim-flam of chemistry, locations and the excitement of the moment." Ecclestone declared.
"Demand for REE is rising; the Western World dropped its guard and finds itself temporarily dependent on a less than certain source of supply. This should have been foreseen," he concluded.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dazu ein Kommentar aus dem HC-Thread von Heute.
Grüsse JoJo
http://www.hotcopper.com.au/post_single.asp?fid=1&tid=108345…
Hi cengizuykun
Interesting read and just further confirms my thoughts, which are:-
2009 was the year that broadcast the rare earth phenomenon to the world, hundreds of articles pointing out why it was so important or how dire the situation was with supply. Lots of techo graphs showing clearly that demand is strong and going to get stronger, a real need exists. Not hard to see why rare earth was a popular investment to look at.
2010 will be the year of discounting some players who are not setting up refining and supply infrastructure systems, on the other side of this coin is the premium that will be placed on those who do have advanced structures. This will be the year where the market looks deeper into the rare earth story to find out what is actually happening, who, where and when the real rare earth story unfolds.
At some point in 2010, perhaps way after the kg basket has shot past $30 a spotlight is going to shine on who can actually deliver this stuff and when. In my opinion it is this spotlight on the real confirmed suppliers which will make last years interest in rare earth look timid in comparison to the natural consequence of what many want and few have. The shear complexity of mining, stock piling the concentrate onto the very complex and detailed requirements for the refinery, these things take years to draw up let alone to plan a plant with all the vigorous regulatory requirements for a RE refinery, it is a massive task which takes many years.
Yet Lynas has it all and to get to this point all they did was a tiny dilution, yes a tiny dilution! which not only breathed life into Lynas but gives it the first cab off the rank status which will be worth every penny and more, we will look back and say wow how cheap was that
So what do Lynas have.
A massive resource.
A massive stock pile of mined and separated concentrate.
All permits to transport and export.
Refining plant in Malaysia being constructed (not planned or proposed) with all design and build contracts set in place. All permits and regulatory requirements in place, which includes a very attractive tax regime for a period of 12 years.
As many product sales contracts as they want right now all signed with no upper limit on prices, on my last look these were sitting around $350m US.
Most if not all these important things you would expect your average competitor to have, I have never been lucky enough in business not to have competitors snapping at my heels for all of my 40 years in business, but for the life of me I have never seen a perfect storm develop like this, the REE price will go ballistic until somehow someone produces an excess of refined REE's and I just cannot see where it is going to come from in any short time. And if the worlds economy does better than just mildly recover this situation will only take on an exponential.
I am waiting for some sideswipe to my thinking which throws it all out, some left field play that changes the landscape, but right now I don't see one.
philh9
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 38.726.162 von max232 am 13.01.10 13:27:09Hi Max,
der aktuelle Preis pro kg REO für Mt. Weld beträgt per 11.01.10 $ 11,78, in Q4 2009 waren´s nur $ 10,32. Dafür waren es in 2008 aber auch mal $ 14,87...
http://www.lynascorp.com/page.asp?category_id=1&page_id=25
Zu berücksichtigen ist auch, dass wir die Preise, zu denen Lynas das REO verkauft, nicht kennen; immerhin wurden ja bereits einige Abnahmeverträge mit definierten Abnahmebedingungen abgeschlossen.
Grundsätzlich ist aufgrund der aktuellen Versorgungssituation eher von weiter steigenden REO-Preisen auszugehen.
Viele Grüße
priv
der aktuelle Preis pro kg REO für Mt. Weld beträgt per 11.01.10 $ 11,78, in Q4 2009 waren´s nur $ 10,32. Dafür waren es in 2008 aber auch mal $ 14,87...
http://www.lynascorp.com/page.asp?category_id=1&page_id=25
Zu berücksichtigen ist auch, dass wir die Preise, zu denen Lynas das REO verkauft, nicht kennen; immerhin wurden ja bereits einige Abnahmeverträge mit definierten Abnahmebedingungen abgeschlossen.
Grundsätzlich ist aufgrund der aktuellen Versorgungssituation eher von weiter steigenden REO-Preisen auszugehen.
Viele Grüße
priv
Hallo @ all!
Ich schau mich derzeit nach neuen Investmentmöglichkeiten um und bin auf Lynas gestoßen. (Ich hatte die schon mal vor ein paar Jahren.)
Ich hab mich gut eingelesen hier und auf deren Homepage (war ja ein bewegtes 2009
) und hab einen guten Überblick.
Ich möchte aber noch einen Punkt zur Diskussion stellen …
Dzt. sind 1,7Mia Aktien ausgegeben, die MKap ist dzt. 950MioUSD. Der aktuelle Basketpreis pro kg REO für Mt. Weld beträgt 10USD. So weit so gut ...
Abbau 11.000t REO (1st half 2011) => Umsatz von 110MioUSD
Ich unterstelle mal einen Gewinn von 60MioUSD. (50Mio USD Abbau+Shipping+Verarbeitungskosten) Wenn ich nun das KGV berechne:
KGV=Aktienkurs/Gewinn pro Aktie=0,56USD/(60Mio/1,7Mia)=15,9
+: Steigerung von 11.000 auf 22.000t, Preissteigerungen beim REO
-: 60Mio Gewinn ist imho extrem optimistisch (gibts dazu eigtl. Zahlen?) wenn der kleiner ist haben wir gleich mal ein KGV von 50+, Kosten Phase 2 unbekannt, KGV 16 wäre relativ hoch (vielleicht wg. strategischer Wichtigkeit von REO gerechtfertigt)
vg, Max
Ich schau mich derzeit nach neuen Investmentmöglichkeiten um und bin auf Lynas gestoßen. (Ich hatte die schon mal vor ein paar Jahren.)
Ich hab mich gut eingelesen hier und auf deren Homepage (war ja ein bewegtes 2009
) und hab einen guten Überblick.Ich möchte aber noch einen Punkt zur Diskussion stellen …
Dzt. sind 1,7Mia Aktien ausgegeben, die MKap ist dzt. 950MioUSD. Der aktuelle Basketpreis pro kg REO für Mt. Weld beträgt 10USD. So weit so gut ...
Abbau 11.000t REO (1st half 2011) => Umsatz von 110MioUSD
Ich unterstelle mal einen Gewinn von 60MioUSD. (50Mio USD Abbau+Shipping+Verarbeitungskosten) Wenn ich nun das KGV berechne:
KGV=Aktienkurs/Gewinn pro Aktie=0,56USD/(60Mio/1,7Mia)=15,9
+: Steigerung von 11.000 auf 22.000t, Preissteigerungen beim REO
-: 60Mio Gewinn ist imho extrem optimistisch (gibts dazu eigtl. Zahlen?) wenn der kleiner ist haben wir gleich mal ein KGV von 50+, Kosten Phase 2 unbekannt, KGV 16 wäre relativ hoch (vielleicht wg. strategischer Wichtigkeit von REO gerechtfertigt)
vg, Max
Trading Spotlight
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 38.724.634 von Fuenfvorzwoelf am 13.01.10 10:54:41und gibt es dafür schon einen termin???
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 38.724.327 von anski100 am 13.01.10 10:21:59gibt es schon einen termin wann jetzt richtig mit der produktion angefangen werden soll???
Sobald die Anlage fertig ist.
Sobald die Anlage fertig ist.
hallo
ist vielleicht eine dumme frage da vielleicht schon oft gestellt aber ich hab keine lust alles durchzulesen und google hat mir auf die schnelle auch nicht weiter geholfen
gibt es schon einen termin wann jetzt richtig mit der produktion angefangen werden soll???
ist vielleicht eine dumme frage da vielleicht schon oft gestellt aber ich hab keine lust alles durchzulesen und google hat mir auf die schnelle auch nicht weiter geholfen
gibt es schon einen termin wann jetzt richtig mit der produktion angefangen werden soll???
Ein Kommentar aus dem HC-Thread von Heute:
http://www.hotcopper.com.au/post_single.asp?fid=1&tid=106073…
re: rare earth price rise (wllmtrish)
Forum: ASX - By Stock (Back)
Code: LYC - LYNAS CORPORATION LIMITED ( 64.5c | Price Chart | Announcements | Google LYC)
Post: 4928252
Reply to: #4826481 from wllmtrish Views: 91
Posted: 11/01/10 20:23 Stock Price (at time of posting): 64.5c Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Stock Held From: 123.2.xxx.xxx
From the Lynas web-site the Average Mt Weld REO Composition price was.....
17/08/09 $9.50 as compared 7/12/09 $10.84 and the latest 11/01/2010 $11.78
The REO price has risen 24% in just over 3 months.
That augers well for the LYC bottom line if the price continues to trend up.
With the demand for rare earths predicted to rise and with the Chinese mindset on utilising the majority of their resources in-house, the future looks very promising for Lynas.
With contracts signed and funding secured to take us thru' to production, a prosperous future for the company and its' shareholders is assured.
I topped again recently, as LYC continually tests the resistance in the mid 60's. This resistance will soon be broken and the current sp is an opportunity to buy imho.
GL all holders.
Dazu der neuste Preis für Rare Earth Oxide bezogen auf das Mt Weld Distribution:
http://www.lynascorp.com/page.asp?category_id=1&page_id=25
Kurz gesagt: Es geht z.Z. weiterhin kontinuierlich aufwärts.
Grüsse JoJo
http://www.hotcopper.com.au/post_single.asp?fid=1&tid=106073…
re: rare earth price rise (wllmtrish)
Forum: ASX - By Stock (Back)
Code: LYC - LYNAS CORPORATION LIMITED ( 64.5c | Price Chart | Announcements | Google LYC)
Post: 4928252
Reply to: #4826481 from wllmtrish Views: 91
Posted: 11/01/10 20:23 Stock Price (at time of posting): 64.5c Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Stock Held From: 123.2.xxx.xxx
From the Lynas web-site the Average Mt Weld REO Composition price was.....
17/08/09 $9.50 as compared 7/12/09 $10.84 and the latest 11/01/2010 $11.78
The REO price has risen 24% in just over 3 months.
That augers well for the LYC bottom line if the price continues to trend up.
With the demand for rare earths predicted to rise and with the Chinese mindset on utilising the majority of their resources in-house, the future looks very promising for Lynas.
With contracts signed and funding secured to take us thru' to production, a prosperous future for the company and its' shareholders is assured.
I topped again recently, as LYC continually tests the resistance in the mid 60's. This resistance will soon be broken and the current sp is an opportunity to buy imho.
GL all holders.
Dazu der neuste Preis für Rare Earth Oxide bezogen auf das Mt Weld Distribution:
http://www.lynascorp.com/page.asp?category_id=1&page_id=25
Kurz gesagt: Es geht z.Z. weiterhin kontinuierlich aufwärts.
Grüsse JoJo
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