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Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 36.480.159 von stupidgame am 30.01.09 11:12:41Muss heissen: 6-Monats Vergleich
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 36.478.503 von tommy-hl am 30.01.09 07:07:09Hallo zusammen!
Kleiner Service wenigstens - auf die Schnelle.
Chart: Zirkon-Werte im 3-Monats Vergleich.
Benchmark: ILU grün (Iluka Resources)
dazu: KMR gelb (Kenmare Resources); AZC orange (Australian Zircon); IMA pink (Image Resources); DRX blau (Diatreme Resources); MDL braun (Mineral Deposits)
Gruß
s.
Kleiner Service wenigstens - auf die Schnelle.
Chart: Zirkon-Werte im 3-Monats Vergleich.
Benchmark: ILU grün (Iluka Resources)
dazu: KMR gelb (Kenmare Resources); AZC orange (Australian Zircon); IMA pink (Image Resources); DRX blau (Diatreme Resources); MDL braun (Mineral Deposits)
Gruß
s.
January 29, 2009 - By Alastair Ford
Northland Resources
Iron Ore Prices May Weaken This Year, But Not Enough To Stop Progress At Northland's Tapuli Project In Sweden
There can’t be too many people out there watching the up-coming round of iron ore price negotiations in the Far East with anything other than trepidation. Not on the mining side, at any rate. This week Kazakh-based metals conglomerate ENRC announced that the Russian buyer, Magnitogorsk Iron and Steel Works, had managed to push through a 41 per cent price reduction for purchase of the company’s iron ore.
The price paid will now be US$50 per tonne, as against last year’s US$85 per tonne. Stomach-churning, perhaps, for anyone who’d got used to the recent double digit moves in the other direction. But actually, not altogether unexpected. According to broker Fairfax in London, market participants are forecasting a price cut across the sector of somewhere in the 30 per cent to 50 per cent range. Though it bears no formal relation to the industry’s big iron ore pricing negotiations which are undertaken by key players BHP Billiton, Vale and Rio Tinto, the price set by ENRC’s deal with Magnitogorsk will at the very least serve as a point of reference for them.
The directors at Northland Resources will be one group of people paying particularly close attention to the price negotiations over the coming months, as the company is likely to be publishing a pre-feasibility study on its Tapuli iron ore project in northern Sweden in mid-May. By then, we’ll know for better or for worse about the new benchmark pricing, and Northland’s board will be able to factor it into the decision it’ll then have to take about further funding for Tapuli.
The overall capital costs are estimated by Northland's chairman Simon Ridgway as likely to come in at between C$250 million and C$300 million. We should mention, though, that just at the minute Northland actually looks very secure -relatively speaking - sitting as it is on a treasury of C$90 million. That money in the bank takes it some serious distance towards getting Tapuli built, and at the very least guarantees that the bailiffs won't be knocking on the door for many a year to come.
But how to get the rest of the money? Simon himself favours bringing in a bigger partner to help with funding, although the board at Northland has yet to reach a consensus view on this issue. “It’s a very tough market to raise finance in”, Simon says, and the reasons aren’t hard to find. Apart from the moribund debt markets and the decimated capital markets, anyone who’s wondering how the steel sector is doing locally only has to look at the roster of lay-offs here in the UK, to find that Corus, a company that might once have been described as a local champion, leading the way.
But the global situation isn’t all to the detriment of Northland, or the prospects for Tapuli. For one thing, just because the company’s ore is currently in northern Europe doesn’t mean it will end up being sold there. Simon Ridgway talks with some optimism about continued demand from pellet plants in the Middle East, and it may be that off-take deals above the soon-to-be-set benchmark are possible, though Simon doesn’t say this himself.
Instead, he simply says that even after the next benchmark price is set “our assumption is that Tapuli will still be robust”. For the record, the eventual price assumptions that Northland will use in its modelling for Tapuli will be taken from specialist industry consultancy CRU. But Simon also points out that first production isn’t slated until 2011 or 2012, and by that time iron ore prices may well be on the up and up again.
There are plenty of analysts out there still buying into the long term supercycle theory, and some who are also rolling big government spending on steel-hungry infrastructure projects into their models for a coming recovery in metals prices. On the other side of the coin, industry costs are falling to such an extent that even if the iron price drops, the Northland team is hopeful that the internal rate of return (IRR) on Tapuli will stay the same.
In other words, there’s a possibility that the projected margins at Tapuli may hold up reasonably well, because although the overall selling price for the product will be lower in the short to medium term, so will the costs. We will have to wait till mid May to find out exactly how the numbers look, but in the meantime the company is keeping open existing lines of communications with banks, suppliers, and, says Simon, “a number of steel companies”.
Apart from anything else, he says, what Northland has is a “quality ore”. Someone out there will surely pay a good price for it. Won’t they?
Northland Resources
Iron Ore Prices May Weaken This Year, But Not Enough To Stop Progress At Northland's Tapuli Project In Sweden
There can’t be too many people out there watching the up-coming round of iron ore price negotiations in the Far East with anything other than trepidation. Not on the mining side, at any rate. This week Kazakh-based metals conglomerate ENRC announced that the Russian buyer, Magnitogorsk Iron and Steel Works, had managed to push through a 41 per cent price reduction for purchase of the company’s iron ore.
The price paid will now be US$50 per tonne, as against last year’s US$85 per tonne. Stomach-churning, perhaps, for anyone who’d got used to the recent double digit moves in the other direction. But actually, not altogether unexpected. According to broker Fairfax in London, market participants are forecasting a price cut across the sector of somewhere in the 30 per cent to 50 per cent range. Though it bears no formal relation to the industry’s big iron ore pricing negotiations which are undertaken by key players BHP Billiton, Vale and Rio Tinto, the price set by ENRC’s deal with Magnitogorsk will at the very least serve as a point of reference for them.
The directors at Northland Resources will be one group of people paying particularly close attention to the price negotiations over the coming months, as the company is likely to be publishing a pre-feasibility study on its Tapuli iron ore project in northern Sweden in mid-May. By then, we’ll know for better or for worse about the new benchmark pricing, and Northland’s board will be able to factor it into the decision it’ll then have to take about further funding for Tapuli.
The overall capital costs are estimated by Northland's chairman Simon Ridgway as likely to come in at between C$250 million and C$300 million. We should mention, though, that just at the minute Northland actually looks very secure -relatively speaking - sitting as it is on a treasury of C$90 million. That money in the bank takes it some serious distance towards getting Tapuli built, and at the very least guarantees that the bailiffs won't be knocking on the door for many a year to come.
But how to get the rest of the money? Simon himself favours bringing in a bigger partner to help with funding, although the board at Northland has yet to reach a consensus view on this issue. “It’s a very tough market to raise finance in”, Simon says, and the reasons aren’t hard to find. Apart from the moribund debt markets and the decimated capital markets, anyone who’s wondering how the steel sector is doing locally only has to look at the roster of lay-offs here in the UK, to find that Corus, a company that might once have been described as a local champion, leading the way.
But the global situation isn’t all to the detriment of Northland, or the prospects for Tapuli. For one thing, just because the company’s ore is currently in northern Europe doesn’t mean it will end up being sold there. Simon Ridgway talks with some optimism about continued demand from pellet plants in the Middle East, and it may be that off-take deals above the soon-to-be-set benchmark are possible, though Simon doesn’t say this himself.
Instead, he simply says that even after the next benchmark price is set “our assumption is that Tapuli will still be robust”. For the record, the eventual price assumptions that Northland will use in its modelling for Tapuli will be taken from specialist industry consultancy CRU. But Simon also points out that first production isn’t slated until 2011 or 2012, and by that time iron ore prices may well be on the up and up again.
There are plenty of analysts out there still buying into the long term supercycle theory, and some who are also rolling big government spending on steel-hungry infrastructure projects into their models for a coming recovery in metals prices. On the other side of the coin, industry costs are falling to such an extent that even if the iron price drops, the Northland team is hopeful that the internal rate of return (IRR) on Tapuli will stay the same.
In other words, there’s a possibility that the projected margins at Tapuli may hold up reasonably well, because although the overall selling price for the product will be lower in the short to medium term, so will the costs. We will have to wait till mid May to find out exactly how the numbers look, but in the meantime the company is keeping open existing lines of communications with banks, suppliers, and, says Simon, “a number of steel companies”.
Apart from anything else, he says, what Northland has is a “quality ore”. Someone out there will surely pay a good price for it. Won’t they?
S&P erwartet höhere Metallpreise im 2. Hj 2009, während Q1-2009 noch sehr schlecht laufen wird (Artikel von mir gekürzt):
S&P says metals prices may rebound late this year
Author: Dorothy Kosich - Posted: Thursday , 29 Jan 2009
While S&P forecasts that the first quarter mining financials will continue to be grim, metals prices could rebound to a healthier level later this year.
Standard & Poor's anticipates the 2009 operating performance of the global metals and mining sector to be much weaker with the potential for some improvement late in the year.
"We think there's a good change that prices will rebound to a healthier level once demand starts to improve, although well below the peaks of 2007 and 2008," S&P Credit Analysts Marie Shmark, Michael Scerbo, Alex Herbert and Donald Marleau said.
"We expect the first quarter of 2009 to be a continuation of the grim fourth quarter of 2008, with sector participants facing very low demand and pricing, as companies along the supply chain manage for cash, work off high-priced inventories, and continue to suffer from a lack of access to credit," they advised.
Many mining companies have not yet had time to adjust to the new market environment and those that have may not realize their results until later this year. "This will weaken credit ratios this year, quite significantly for some, until companies decide upon and execute corrective actions which will begin to strengthen operating performance," the analysts said.
"Based on current prices, we would expect significantly lower EBITDA and funds from operations, and we expect 2009 operating results to be well below those in 2008," they forecast. "Negative ratings could result for companies that are unable to adjust their operations, cost base, and capital structures to reflect weaker circumstances."
Nevertheless, once metals inventories finally hit bottom or at least stabilize, and infrastructure programs begin to be funded, S&P suggests metals demand, capacity utilization, and mining company profitability should improve.
The analysts expect more capex spending cuts until improved global demand translates in stronger pricing and liquidity. "However, companies that are financially stronger may perceive their competitors' capital spending reductions as good opportunities to undertake their own capital developments in readiness for the next upturn."
Meanwhile, M&A activity has dried up, the analysts asserted. "A number of large transactions have been cancelled, most notably BHP Billiton's hostile takeover of Rio Tinto," they said. "Even with many companies' stock prices down 60% or more and presumably stressed private equity firms looking to liquidate investments, buyers have not been stepping forward."
"Reasons for the decrease in M&A activity include the unwillingness of sellers to accept bids at today's low prices in what is very much a buyer's market, reduced financing options, more cautious management teams, and the need by companies to restructure their operations before proceeding with a purchase," they said.
The lack of M&A activity has also created difficulties for companies which made debt-finance acquisitions during boom market conditions and have been unable to achieve meaningful and timely asset disposals to help reduce, such as Rio Tinto and Teck.
"We expect potential large-scale transactions to continue to face persistent regulatory, shareholders, valuation, political and financing challenges," the analysts predicted. "Still , as credit markets recover, we would expect a resumption of M&A and disposal activity with better capitalized companies seeking to improve their business positions by adding reserves, expanding geographic scope, or reducing their costs."
S&P says metals prices may rebound late this year
Author: Dorothy Kosich - Posted: Thursday , 29 Jan 2009
While S&P forecasts that the first quarter mining financials will continue to be grim, metals prices could rebound to a healthier level later this year.
Standard & Poor's anticipates the 2009 operating performance of the global metals and mining sector to be much weaker with the potential for some improvement late in the year.
"We think there's a good change that prices will rebound to a healthier level once demand starts to improve, although well below the peaks of 2007 and 2008," S&P Credit Analysts Marie Shmark, Michael Scerbo, Alex Herbert and Donald Marleau said.
"We expect the first quarter of 2009 to be a continuation of the grim fourth quarter of 2008, with sector participants facing very low demand and pricing, as companies along the supply chain manage for cash, work off high-priced inventories, and continue to suffer from a lack of access to credit," they advised.
Many mining companies have not yet had time to adjust to the new market environment and those that have may not realize their results until later this year. "This will weaken credit ratios this year, quite significantly for some, until companies decide upon and execute corrective actions which will begin to strengthen operating performance," the analysts said.
"Based on current prices, we would expect significantly lower EBITDA and funds from operations, and we expect 2009 operating results to be well below those in 2008," they forecast. "Negative ratings could result for companies that are unable to adjust their operations, cost base, and capital structures to reflect weaker circumstances."
Nevertheless, once metals inventories finally hit bottom or at least stabilize, and infrastructure programs begin to be funded, S&P suggests metals demand, capacity utilization, and mining company profitability should improve.
The analysts expect more capex spending cuts until improved global demand translates in stronger pricing and liquidity. "However, companies that are financially stronger may perceive their competitors' capital spending reductions as good opportunities to undertake their own capital developments in readiness for the next upturn."
Meanwhile, M&A activity has dried up, the analysts asserted. "A number of large transactions have been cancelled, most notably BHP Billiton's hostile takeover of Rio Tinto," they said. "Even with many companies' stock prices down 60% or more and presumably stressed private equity firms looking to liquidate investments, buyers have not been stepping forward."
"Reasons for the decrease in M&A activity include the unwillingness of sellers to accept bids at today's low prices in what is very much a buyer's market, reduced financing options, more cautious management teams, and the need by companies to restructure their operations before proceeding with a purchase," they said.
The lack of M&A activity has also created difficulties for companies which made debt-finance acquisitions during boom market conditions and have been unable to achieve meaningful and timely asset disposals to help reduce, such as Rio Tinto and Teck.
"We expect potential large-scale transactions to continue to face persistent regulatory, shareholders, valuation, political and financing challenges," the analysts predicted. "Still , as credit markets recover, we would expect a resumption of M&A and disposal activity with better capitalized companies seeking to improve their business positions by adding reserves, expanding geographic scope, or reducing their costs."
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 36.474.228 von Marvin1992 am 29.01.09 15:26:50Hast du eine Meinung zu Hawthorne Gold?
Ja, habe ich: Neutral!
Nachfolgend mal ein paar Infos und Gedanken von mir. Dieses ist kein ausführliches Research, deshalb mit Vorbehalt:
Hawthorne Gold will Ende 2009 mit einer Mini-Produktion beginnen.
Projekte in BC/Kanada:
TABLE MOUNTAIN DEPOSIT
Die Untertage-Mine wurde im Oktober 2007 vom Vorbesitzer geschlossen und soll wieder in Betrieb genommen werden. Verarbeitungsanlagen für 300 t/Tag sind vorhanden. Die Ressourcen weisen zwar sehr hohe Grade auf, sind aber sehr gering:
Ressourcen 6.600 Unzen á 5,19 Unzen/t Gold inferred und 17.000 Unzen á 0,77 Unzen/t Gold.
Bei so geringen Mengen macht eine Machbarkeitsstudie oder Kostenanalyse keinen Sinn. Ich vermute, dass bei den hohen Goldgraden Gewinne erzielt werden. Wenn jedoch keine neuen Ressourcen entdeckt werden, ist die Produktionszeit sehr kurz. Das ist eine Angelegenheit von ein paar Monaten.
Plan:
2009: Opening of underground portals and drilling to define resources
End 2009: Underground rehabilitation and pre-production mine development towards production (300 t Erz pro Tag)
FRASERGOLD DEPOSIT
Plan:
2009: NI 43-101 compliant resource estimate
TAURUS DEPOSIT
1 Mio. Unzen á 1 g/t Gold inferred
Plan:
2009: Initiate Exploration Program
2009: Update NI 43-101 resource estimate
Aussage des CEO vor ein paar Tagen: “Our team has taken significant steps to ensure that the Company is prepared to become a junior gold producer in the latter part of 2009," commented Richard Barclay, President and CEO of Hawthorne.
Den Cashbestand schätze ich auf $ 2-3 Mio.
Um die nächste Mine zur Produktionsreife zu bringen, ist dringend Geld nötig. Der Gewinn aus dem TABLE MOUNTAIN Projekt wird dazu nicht ausreichen. Also sind m. E. weitere Kapitalerhöhungen die Konsequenz. Und ein Kreditgeber muss gefunden werden. Der wird aber eine bankfähige Machbarkeitsstudie fordern. Das kostet Geld und Zeit. Produktionsbeginn des zweiten Projektes evtl. in drei Jahren.
Alles zusammen genommen, weckt das nicht meine Leidenschaft ...
Deshalb mein Rating: NEUTRAL
Gruß
Tommy
Ja, habe ich: Neutral!
Nachfolgend mal ein paar Infos und Gedanken von mir. Dieses ist kein ausführliches Research, deshalb mit Vorbehalt:
Hawthorne Gold will Ende 2009 mit einer Mini-Produktion beginnen.
Projekte in BC/Kanada:
TABLE MOUNTAIN DEPOSIT
Die Untertage-Mine wurde im Oktober 2007 vom Vorbesitzer geschlossen und soll wieder in Betrieb genommen werden. Verarbeitungsanlagen für 300 t/Tag sind vorhanden. Die Ressourcen weisen zwar sehr hohe Grade auf, sind aber sehr gering:
Ressourcen 6.600 Unzen á 5,19 Unzen/t Gold inferred und 17.000 Unzen á 0,77 Unzen/t Gold.
Bei so geringen Mengen macht eine Machbarkeitsstudie oder Kostenanalyse keinen Sinn. Ich vermute, dass bei den hohen Goldgraden Gewinne erzielt werden. Wenn jedoch keine neuen Ressourcen entdeckt werden, ist die Produktionszeit sehr kurz. Das ist eine Angelegenheit von ein paar Monaten.
Plan:
2009: Opening of underground portals and drilling to define resources
End 2009: Underground rehabilitation and pre-production mine development towards production (300 t Erz pro Tag)
FRASERGOLD DEPOSIT
Plan:
2009: NI 43-101 compliant resource estimate
TAURUS DEPOSIT
1 Mio. Unzen á 1 g/t Gold inferred
Plan:
2009: Initiate Exploration Program
2009: Update NI 43-101 resource estimate
Aussage des CEO vor ein paar Tagen: “Our team has taken significant steps to ensure that the Company is prepared to become a junior gold producer in the latter part of 2009," commented Richard Barclay, President and CEO of Hawthorne.
Den Cashbestand schätze ich auf $ 2-3 Mio.
Um die nächste Mine zur Produktionsreife zu bringen, ist dringend Geld nötig. Der Gewinn aus dem TABLE MOUNTAIN Projekt wird dazu nicht ausreichen. Also sind m. E. weitere Kapitalerhöhungen die Konsequenz. Und ein Kreditgeber muss gefunden werden. Der wird aber eine bankfähige Machbarkeitsstudie fordern. Das kostet Geld und Zeit. Produktionsbeginn des zweiten Projektes evtl. in drei Jahren.
Alles zusammen genommen, weckt das nicht meine Leidenschaft ...
Deshalb mein Rating: NEUTRAL
Gruß
Tommy
Trading Spotlight
Guten Morgen,
Iluka discovers new heavy mineral deposit
30th January 2009, 9:45 WST
Mineral sands miner Iluka has announced a new heavy mineral deposit in the Murray Basin in New South Wales.
The company said the Endeavour deposit was about 35km north of the town of Balranald and 9km east of its West Balranald deposit and held an inferred resource of 7.6 million tonnes.
“At a 3 per cent HM cut-off grade, the deposit is approximately 12km long, 80-100m wide, 4-7m thick and is located beneath 71m of sedimentary overburden,” the company said.
Iluka exploration and technical services general manager Peter Benjamin said the Murray Basin was considered to be highly prospective for additional rutile and zircon opportunities to add to the company’s resource inventory.
“Iluka plans to expend approximately half of its 2009 Murray Basin exploration budget, or approximately 20 per cent of its total 2009 exploration budget, on further greenfields exploration and work to further delineate existing discoveries,” he said.
Iluka discovers new heavy mineral deposit
30th January 2009, 9:45 WST
Mineral sands miner Iluka has announced a new heavy mineral deposit in the Murray Basin in New South Wales.
The company said the Endeavour deposit was about 35km north of the town of Balranald and 9km east of its West Balranald deposit and held an inferred resource of 7.6 million tonnes.
“At a 3 per cent HM cut-off grade, the deposit is approximately 12km long, 80-100m wide, 4-7m thick and is located beneath 71m of sedimentary overburden,” the company said.
Iluka exploration and technical services general manager Peter Benjamin said the Murray Basin was considered to be highly prospective for additional rutile and zircon opportunities to add to the company’s resource inventory.
“Iluka plans to expend approximately half of its 2009 Murray Basin exploration budget, or approximately 20 per cent of its total 2009 exploration budget, on further greenfields exploration and work to further delineate existing discoveries,” he said.
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 36.474.188 von tommy-hl am 29.01.09 15:21:37Hast du eine Meinung zu Hawthorne Gold?
Danke
Danke
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 36.473.954 von Popeye82 am 29.01.09 14:48:47Hallo Popeye,
danke für den Hinweis. Ja, Mineral Deposits hat sowohl Gold- als auch Mineralsand-Projekte (inkl. Zirkon).
Ist eine genauere Betrachtung wert!
Gruß
Tommy
danke für den Hinweis. Ja, Mineral Deposits hat sowohl Gold- als auch Mineralsand-Projekte (inkl. Zirkon).
Ist eine genauere Betrachtung wert!
Gruß
Tommy
Dynasty Metals & Mining
Das Research zu DMM ist fertig. Dazu wird wahrscheinlich bis zum Wochenende ein Mailer rausgehen. Wer noch nicht in der Mailer-Liste ist, kann mir seine Email-Adresse per Board Mail mitteilen und wird dann mit berücksichtigt.
Gruß
Tommy
Das Research zu DMM ist fertig. Dazu wird wahrscheinlich bis zum Wochenende ein Mailer rausgehen. Wer noch nicht in der Mailer-Liste ist, kann mir seine Email-Adresse per Board Mail mitteilen und wird dann mit berücksichtigt.
Gruß
Tommy
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 36.471.774 von allida am 29.01.09 10:15:39Würdest Du dir mal Bendigo Mining anschauen
Hallo allida,
zu Bendigo Mining werde ich wahrscheinlich schon in der nächsten Woche etwas sagen können. Ich hatte mir Bendigo vor ca. einem Jahr mal angesehen. Ich werde mal meine alten Unterlagen sowie die zwischenzeitliche Entwicklung des Unternehmens studieren und Dir dann meine Meinung mitteilen.
Liebe Grüße
Tommy
Hallo allida,
zu Bendigo Mining werde ich wahrscheinlich schon in der nächsten Woche etwas sagen können. Ich hatte mir Bendigo vor ca. einem Jahr mal angesehen. Ich werde mal meine alten Unterlagen sowie die zwischenzeitliche Entwicklung des Unternehmens studieren und Dir dann meine Meinung mitteilen.
Liebe Grüße
Tommy
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