Rohstoff-Explorer: Research oder Neuvorstellung (Seite 2784)

[tommy-hl]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.365.058 von stupidgame am 24.06.08 18:15:20

Hi stupidgame,

Palladon Ventures Ltd
Danke für die Info. Ich habe gerade einen flüchtigen Blick auf das Unternehmen geworfen und mein erster Eindruck: Klingt super, sowohl was die Voraussetzungen angeht (Infrastruktur vorhanden, niedrige Capex usw.) als auch die Aussicht auf Produktionsbeginn noch in 2008!

Ich werde darauf noch zurück kommen.

Gruß - Tommy

[dafi1974]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.380.425 von tommy-hl am 26.06.08 14:18:21

stimmt
aber aber mann muss sich nur die grössen vorstellen was da heranwächst
ausserdem das kleinere projekt soll Q4 2010 in produktion gehen

[tommy-hl]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.379.131 von dafi1974 am 26.06.08 12:03:58

Hallo Dafi,

danke für die Info zu Western Copper. So wie ich das auf den ersten Blick sehe, wird ein neues Kraftwerk zu bauen sein, um die Stromversorgung zu gewährleisten.

Kapitalbedarf: 2,1 Milliarden US-$
Produktionsbeginn: Mitte 2013 (Gold), Ende 2015 (Moly + Kupfer)

Ich denke, da kann man mit einem Einstieg noch etwas warten ...

Gruß - Tommy

[dafi1974]

hallo tommy
WESTERN COPPER
diese woche ist ein update für das unternehmen raus und die pfs für das casino deposit
lesenswert ,die 5 min sollte man opfern

[tommy-hl]

June 24, 2008 By Rob Davies - minesite.com

Northland Resources Ought Now To Be Bullet Proof On Its Assumptions For Its Scandinavian Iron Ore Projects

Anyone who has built a large spreadsheet to model a company or a project is always aware of the potential for it to hide a tiny little error that might compromise the whole model. Usually such errors are not significant or are discovered in time.

But unfortunately for Northland Resources it was only after a particularly diligent investor asked a question that an error was exposed in the company’s recently published preliminary economic assessment (PEA) covering its three magnetite iron ore deposits in Scandinavia.

Northland Resources had to withdraw the report and spend two days going over the model in fine detail and then to ask consultants Wardell to do the same before it could finally sign off on a revised version last weekend. The net effects were two small negative revisions and one small increase in the earnings before interest and tax number.

Importantly, there was no net overall effect on the three projects taken together, and they still offer payback in seven years, an internal rate of return of 27 per cent and a net present value of €1.1 billion at a 10 per cent discount rate.

Ralph Rushton, the investor relations officer for Northland, has obviously had a challenging time over the last few days but he appeared relaxed and assured over the phone to Minews as he related this tale. Now that it’s resolved he’s looking forward to telling the story once more, and it’s a good one.

The figures quoted above give a good appreciation of what the bottom line looks like, but there are many other interesting details to this story, not reflected in those figures.

Tapuli is the smallest of the three projects and the plan calls for this to be developed first, possibly by 2009, before the other two are brought on stream. That way, the capital expenditure requirements are spread out over time, removing the requirement to get everything in one go at the start.

In fact with C$130 million in the treasury now Ralph says the company has half of what it needs to build Tapuli already. Requiring a projected capital expenditure of €147 million, Tapuli is the cheapest of the three projects, partly because it will not have a pelletising plant. All three properties can be mined from an open pit.

While a 2009 start-up would be good news for everyone, there is a great deal more work to be done yet. The PEA is just the start and will evolve into a full bankable feasibility study when three more pieces of the jigsaw are put into place. One of these is further metallurgical test work needed to determine exactly what sort of a plant will be required.

The other two relate to the resource. It needs both to be elevated to a higher category and to be expanded, since a bankable study can only be based on a measured resource and the existing - largely inferred - resource is not suitable. Ralph says a drilling programme is underway to resolve both these issues.

In parallel with that work on the ground, Northland is working its marketing team hard to lay the groundwork for an offtake agreement that could be used to bankroll the capital cost of the project. The recent news that Rio Tinto has secured a price rise of 85 per cent for its iron ore will be well received.

Having such a large resource right on the doorstep of Europe will make a big difference to consumers who are finding that they are now wearing the shipping costs of moving iron ore halfway across the world. The location of the three deposits on the Swedish-Finnish border gives Northland the option of transhipping through the port of Kemi on the Gulf of Bothnia, or shipping from the ice-free port of Narvik in Norway.

Only a small amount of work would be needed to connect the three properties to the existing rail network. One thing is for sure now though: all the assumptions in this business model will be absolutely bullet proof.

[tommy-hl]

Northland Resources Is Moving On, But Will Investors Do Likewise?

By Sarah Belfield - 25 Jun 2008

COLUMBUS (ResourceInvestor.com) -- Iron ore hopeful Northland Resources [TSX: NAU] is now free to start fleshing out alternative cases that might further improve the economic attractiveness of a group of three proposed mines, which straddles the border between Sweden and Finland.

Alternatives include using transportation methods other than haul trucks to move ore out of open pits once they deepen. Another possibility is using autogenous mills for secondary crushing and grinding instead of going with higher-cost grinding rolls and ball mills. And another aspect up for examination is the possible time- and cost-saving benefit of securing customers who would be just as happy taking pellet feed as finished iron ore pellets.

The move forward comes after Northland pulled long hours during the past week to help fix two financial modelling errors for its mines development base-case.

With that problem now out of the way, Northland said it was re-focusing on expanding its resource base, which would help boost the longevity of proposed mining operations and the span over which large plant items would function. The company reported having 7 drill rigs working on satellite deposits as well as the three main sites. Most of the satellite deposits tended to be within 25 kilometres of one of the planned processing facilities.

Not only would the drilling increase resource tonnages, it would also see volumes bumped up into higher confidence categories, the company's president and chief executive said. As a result, Northland anticipated updating its resource models before the end of the year.

Revision Had 'Limited' Net Effect

The three iron ore-copper-gold (IOCG) projects Northland hopes to bring to production are Tapuli, Stora Sahavaara and Hannukainen. If all of the mines were to reach their proposed production levels, Northland would eventually be trotting out 13 million tonnes per annum (mtpa), consisting of 3 mtpa of iron ore concentrate from Tapuli, 5 mtpa of blast furnace-grade pellets from Stora Sahavaara, and 5 mtpa of direct reduction-grade pellets from Hannukainen.

Mid last week, Northland and engineering consultancy Wardell Armstrong International released a base-case preliminary economic assessment (PEA) covering the projects. However, after they spotted the double-counting of a mining-cost contingency and an error involving revenue calculations, they were briefly forced back to the drawing board to grind out revised figures.

In a statement to the market on Monday, the company said: "Over the last 5 days Northland and [Wardell] have re-worked and extensively re-checked the financial model, concluding that the net effect of the revision on the net present value, internal rate of return and pay-back of the combined projects is limited and the projects have retained their robust valuation."

While each project was treated as a stand-alone operation in the PEA, their combined net present value came to a revised 1.114 billion euros at a 10% discount rate (down slightly from the originally released figure of 1.119 billion euros) and their combined internal rate of return remained unchanged at 27%.

The combined figures changed little, but some of the individual-project figures changed quite markedly. The following table summarizes some of the major measures assessed in the PEA for the projects individually, including net present value and internal rate of return.

Net present value (NPV) is one means of assessing whether to go ahead with a project. The method summarizes what a series of future cash flows equates to in today's dollar. The cash flows are discounted using a required rate of return (such as 10%). While there are some ifs and buts involved in this kind of analysis, generally speaking a company will undertake a project showing a positive NPV, because this NPV result indicates the project will add to the company's wealth.

Internal rate of return (IRR) is another discounted cash flow method. Again there are finer points not discussed here, but in the most simple case, a company will undertake a project if its IRR exceeds the company's required rate of return.

As with any calculations that involve looking ahead, a final NPV or IRR figure is only as good as the assumptions and data that went into the model. As the saying goes: if you put garbage in, you'll only get garbage coming out.

It means that if a company becomes aware that any assumptions or data no longer hold, or are incorrect, it will need to go back and do another round of number-crunching.

At the time of writing, Northland had earmarked June 30 as the day to discuss the results of its PEA via teleconference.

Back to Business as Usual

Northland president and chief executive Buck Morrow told RI that with the revision now behind them, company staff and contractors were back to business as usual.

"Right now, everyone's focused on bringing Tapuli into production first," he said.

He said Tapuli would likely be the first cab out of the rank because it had the lowest estimated capital expenditure (146.6 million euros) and the highest internal rate of return (34%). Internal rate of return is the discount rate occurring when the present value of a project's cash inflows matches the present value of its cash outflows.

Tapuli would also be the quickest to construct, Morrow said. No pellet-processing plant needed to be built yet because only iron ore concentrate would be produced from the Tapuli resource.

The company is also now free to move forward on the various work involved in completing a bankable feasibility study.

Morrow estimated that details from the work would be out "... somewhere between March and May". He said those details would not quite be in bankable form at that point in time because not every permit will be in hand, "but we'll have a feasibility study that we believe can go directly to bankable once [we] have all of those permits".

He was confident Northland would find buyers for its iron ore concentrate and pellets. The company was looking to sell into the European, North African and Middle East markets.

"One of the key elements of our products is they are very high quality. They'll be consistent in that quality. And that's what the steelmakers are looking for: consistency [and] reliability. We're in an area with very little political risk and good infrastructure. All those things give us an opportunity to have an entry into these markets."

Beginning on June 19, the day Northland announced the need for a revision to parts of its PEA, the company's share price came down from the C$3.80-C$4.00 range they were enjoying throughout the earlier part of June. Northland shares closed yesterday at C$3.13 and were sitting at C$2.94 during mid-afternoon trading today on the TSX.

[tommy-hl]

Jun 25, 2008
Geodex Minerals Announces Base Metal, Tin and Indium Assays From Four Prospects in the Mount Pleasant Camp, New Brunswick

http://www.marketwire.com/mw/release.do?id=872961

[stupidgame]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.365.058 von stupidgame am 24.06.08 18:15:20

Alle noch beim rechnen?
Nee, mal im Ernst, mich würden hier schon Meinungen der Profis interessieren.
Ich bin ein bischen gebranntes Kind, was das Wiederaufmachen alter Minen angeht, durch Blue Note Mining. Deshalb etwas skeptisch. Andererseits liest es sich nicht schlecht, oder?

@Art
Danke übrigens verspätet für das reinstellen des Iradesso Report. Für solche Info-Quellen bin ich sehr dankbar. Ich habe einen Teil des Wochenendes geopfert und etliches durchgeackert.
Was mir bis jetzt am besten gefallen hat ist Buffalo Resources Corp.
Die können es packen. Nicht mal so unbedingt ein Zock. Wenn sie sich vernünftig anstellen, dann können die wachsen und die hohen Kosten packen. Sollten nach dem Placement und dem kürzlichen Asset-Verkauf über 30m in der Kasse haben. Im laufenden Quartal sollten 10m CF und über 2m NPAT drin sein. Das bei 120m fd Marketcap.
Hast Du eigentlich einen Ansatz, Dir aus dem Report Unternehmen rauszupicken? So richtig habe ich das noch nicht raus. Habe nur alles unter 10 Mio.BBLS schon mal aussortiert. Die sind mir zu klein. Viele von denen, die dann übrig waren, die waren entweder relativ teuer oder hatten zu wenig Cash oder waren nicht profitabel genug...

MfG.
s.

[stupidgame]

Ich weiss nicht, habe nicht die Komplettübersicht, was wir hier schon hatten...

tommy hat ja auch nochmal Eisen angesprochen, vor kurzem.

Also, was ich meine ist Palladon Ventures Ltd. Das ist nicht von mir. Den Tip habe ich von einem Kollegen aus dem Consors Board. Ich kopiere mal unsere Korrespondenz hier rein. Darin wird schon ganz viel ausgesagt...

Ist wirklich ein guter Tip. Auch vom Timing her. Gerade läuft eine Kapitalerhöhung. Mit den Mitteln will PLL die 50% ihres Partners an dem Projekt kaufen. Dadurch hätte man die Chance, evtl. noch für paar Tage die Aktie für um die 0,70 CAD zu kaufen.
Wenn ich alles aus der KE schon mitrechne, dann hat PLL eine voll verwässerte Cap. von 143 Mio.CAD, bei 202m austehenden Aktien, Warrants, etc und einem Kurs von 0,71 CAD.
Geplante Produktion erst 2 Mio.t Eisenerz, dann Verdopplung auf 4.
Beim ausrechnen der Kurschance ist nun die Frage, welche Werte man nimmt. Ich wäre erstmal konservativ. Aus schlechten Erfahrungen. Wenn ich richtig gelesen habe, dann produziert man erstmal Konzentrat niederer Grades. Ähnlich Toledo Mining beim Nickel. Dafür bekommt man dann aber auch nicht den Maximal-Erlös. Später ist geplant, einen "Plant" zu bauen, um selber "veredeln" zu können.
Risiko-Faktoren. Es existiert momentan wohl keine aktuelles Gesamt-Reserve Gutachten. Es gibt etliche historische. Die Firma muss selber noch eines erstellen.
Dann scheinen die, wenn ich das richtig gelesen habe, vor paar Jahren schon mal den Minenstart versucht zu haben. Habe aber noch nicht rausbekommen, was damals schiefgelaufen ist.
Dann frage ich mich, warum der Joint-Venture Partner sich unmittelbar vor Produktionsbeginn rauskaufen lässt, wenn hier doch so fette Gewinne locken sollen.
Ausserdem muss man damit rechnen - und das wird kommen, genau so wie bei den Basismetallen - dass der Eisen-Hype mal nachlässt. Muss man schauen, wie es dann weitergeht. Ist ja anders, als beim Öl. Metalle und Eisen und Kohle gibt`s momentan noch genug. Die Preise werden sich normalisieren, wenn genug neue Minen aufgemacht haben. Auch werden die potenziellen Abnehmer langfristig nicht jeden Preis bezahlen können - und wollen.

Also, alles in allem, interessant. Man sollte nicht zu euphorisch rangehen. Wenn alles best case läuft, dann wären hier langfristig Kurse von über 2,50 CAD drin. Bei 4mt Jahresproduktion und 25$ Gewinn/t. Aber, bis dahin ist noch ein Stück. Und die Risiken habe ich oben beschrieben.

------------------------------------------------------------------

da hast du dir ja eine wahnsinn Arbeit gemacht. Zu ein paar Punkten kann ich vielleicht auch was erhellendes beitragen.

Es scheint so zu sein dass es bereits eine Mine gibt vor vielen Jahren aufgelassen wurde weil sich der Abbau nicht mehr rentierte. Heute hat man bessere Abbaumethoden und höhrere Preise und damit denkt man dass es sich wieder rechnet. Ein Problem beim ersten Vesuch von damals war dass man die Menge nicht abtransportieren konnte und es keine sonstige Infrastruktur (Strom) mehr gab. Es ist entweder geplant oder bereits fertig eine Eisenbahnstrecke zu bauen um das Erz weg zu kriegen. Das was jetzt verkauft wird ist wohl alles noch auf Halde. Man denkt auch dass das was man später fördern will eine bessere Qualität hat. Bohrungen gab es scheinbar schon.

Der Investor lässt sich dem Vernehmen nach heraus kaufen will er seinen Part erfüllt sieht. Das Geschäftmodell beruht wohl auf einem Fonds der nur Explorationen finanziert und bei Produktionsbeginn raus geht und jetzt das Geld für andere Projekte braucht. Das mit dem Investor ist allerdings nicht sehr transparent und die Info habe ich auch nur aus zweiter Hand.

Homepage:http://www.palladonventures.com/s/Home.asp

[XIO]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.364.571 von stupidgame am 24.06.08 17:29:39

So sehe ich das auch!
Bin aber ziemlich optimistisch.