Africa Oil Corp. - World-Class East Africa Oil Exploration (Seite 245)

[motz1]

Zitat von motz1: - No matter which well will be tested first (Twiga or Ngamia) the maximum test rate is expected to be ~5,000 b/d restricted by equipment. Each pump that is used is restricted to 1,000 b/d and so in an ideal situation the maximum rate possible is 5,000 b/d, otherwise it can vary. Given these constraints, it is more important to get an understanding of the overall productivity of the sands.

Ich bin mal gespannt ob sich die technischen Insights von GMP bewahrheiten. Eine technische Begrenzung der Flowrate aufgrund der Pumpenkapazität auf 5.000bopd ist eine erstaunlich konkrete Information in obigem Update, wie ich finde.

Es würde wahrscheinlich niemanden vom Hocker reissen, wenn diese "maximale" Menge von 5.000bopd erreicht würde. Tatsächlich würde dann aber das wahre Ausmaß bzw. das wirkliche Maximum der Flowrate weiterhin offen bleiben, wenn ich das richtig einordne...

[motz1]

Die Analysten hatten heute wohl irgendwie alle Lust auf AOI. Hier eine Info von User leycrjb99/iii:

...................

I've received a couple of broker notes so I thought I'd pass on some of the highlights:

Pareto Securities (Buy rating - target of SEK 96)
- The results from the Twiga South well are imminent and are very
likely to be a discovery
- The key risk ahead of the Ngamia well was the presence of a source rock, a risk which following the discovery can be discounted. The key risk to the Twiga South well, as with a large number of the Lokichar leads and prospects, is the trap generated by the fault, in particular the basin bounding fault. Given that the oil is expected in Miocene-aged sandstone, which is relatively young, the risk of reactivated faults resulting in breached traps is low.
- The Paipai well was spudded on 29 September and is expected to drill for approximately 90 days to reach a depth of 4,112m, which means we can expect a result from the drilling during December of this year. We expect the drilling to reach the first target depth (2,300m) by mid-November.
- The Sabisa-1 exploration well on the South Omo block in Ethiopia is expected to spud in December once the OGEC drilling rig has been mobilised. While the pre-drill estimate for the prospect is a fairly modest 68mmbo gross and 20mmbo net to Africa Oil (AOI has a 30% working interest) the derisking effect of a discovery should not be underestimated.
- In contrast to the Lokichar basin, however, there has been no previous drilling activity this far north in the Tertiary rift and therefore the presence of a functioning source rock remains to be confirmed. Also, the risk relating to the fault trap remains.

From GMP Securities (Buy rating, target of SEK 89)
- The management decided not to visit the Twiga South site. After its experience with Ngamia, AOI decided to better control the information disclosure. According to management, the fact that there was no information released on Twiga should not be interpreted as positive or negative, that it is merely AOI working with Tullow Oil and the government to better manage information.
- No matter which well will be tested first (Twiga or Ngamia) the maximum test rate is expected to be ~5,000 b/d restricted by equipment. Each pump that is used is restricted to 1,000 b/d and so in an ideal situation the maximum rate possible is 5,000 b/d, otherwise it can vary. Given these constraints, it is more important to get an understanding of the overall productivity of the sands.
- The CMR (combinable magnetic resonance) and MDT (modular formation dynamics tester) tools give you information about permeability, fluid identification, and fluid contacts to confirm the reservoir producibility. At Ngamia, MDTs were mixed with some yielding good results and some being tight and the management could not confirm whether it was due to mechanical or reservoir issues. Additionally, CMR logs did not provide the indication of permeability, so the company does not know what the permeability is like until they test. This may impact the development economics (how many wells to drill, work overs, etc.) in future. Combined with the remoteness of the area and lack of infrastructure it could be an expensive development, however until the testing is executed it is hard to be precise on commerciality thresholds.

[gimo211]

Du hast schon recht, D-a-H, sie machen das PP wohl nach den Twiga results - wahrscheinlich tatsächlich nach einem DST...

Mehr confidence in das, was uns mit Twiga erwartet, kann eine Company einfach nicht ausdrücken!!

Bislang habe ich Kapitalmassnahmen immer nur vor den konkreten Drilling-Ergebnissen erlebt; was KH dort macht ist einzigartig...

(nach meinen Erwartungen gibt es dann für 200 Mio. Dollar gerade mal 10 Mio. neue Shares... )

[Drill-a-Hill]

"Moreover, Pareto believes that Africa Oil will implement placementof $ 200 millionat the end of October"

Ich dachte die nächste KE soll erst nach den DSTs von TWIGA und NGAMIA stattfinden, gibt es da ein Statement von AOI?

...wird AOI die Ergebnisse zu Twiga möglicherweise erst nach potentiellen DSTs veröffentlichen?

very exciting times

GLA

[motz1]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 43.689.937 von gimo211 am 08.10.12 15:26:58

Wunderbar

[gimo211]

Hi motz1,

Mehr Anzeichen dafür, dass allein das Lokichar Sub Basin sehr groß sein könnte heute auch von Morgen Stanley...:

It appears from a sectoral analysis dated 5 October, where Morgan Stanley has an overweight recommendation on Africa Oil's partner Tullow Oil.
"After our field trip and presentations from Afren and Tullows partner Africa Oil, we believe that the opportunity offered in the upcoming Kenyan and Ethiopian drilling campaign has much greater upside potential than Tullow have said. Specifically, we believe that Lokichar area alone by a wide margin could exceed what has been discovered in Uganda, "the investment bank.


... Ich sehe unsere AOI schon in den DeHaemer'schen Target-Price-Regionen...


Es scheint so, dass die Analysten Tour zur Twiga Site eine ziemlich positive Resonanz erzeugt hat... Gut so!

In Schweden geht es heute auch weiter voran... ich denke, wir haben eine Chance auf 11 Dollar per Share heute...

[motz1]

Hier ein paar Stockhouse-Infos:

Africa Oil: Troligt med positiva resultat från Twiga - Pareto

13:20

(SIX) Oljebolaget Africa Oil väntas inom kort, troligen före
slutet av oktober, att rapportera resultatet från borrningen i
Twiga South och det kommer med stor sannolikhet att vara
positiva resultat, bedömer Pareto Securities i en analys daterad
den 8 oktober.

Twiga South har potential att addera 6 kronor per aktie till
Paretos bedömning av bolagets substansvärde. Borrningarna i
Paipai och Sabisa bedöms ha en mycket högre risk och de bedöms
ha potential att öka värdet på aktien med 6 till 7 kronor
respektive med 21 till 31 kronor per aktie.

Pareto upprepar sin köprekommendation för Africa Oil och
höjer sin målkurs från 92 till 96 kronor.

Vidare bedömer Pareto att Africa Oil kommer att genomföra
nyemission på 200 miljoner dollar i slutet av oktober, något som
banken har tagit hänsyn till i sin målkurs på 96 kronor.

Henrik Öhlin, tel [phone]
[e-mail]
SIX News

..................

In Englisch (achtung: Dollar=Kronen, Fehler des Übersetzungsprogramms):

..................

Africa Oil: Probable with positive results from Twiga - Pareto

13:20

(SIX) oil company Africa Oil is expected shortly, probably before
end of October, to report the results from the drilling of
Twiga South and it will most likely be
positive results, estimates Pareto Securities in an analysis dated
October 8.

Twiga South has the potential to add 6 per share to
Pareto's assessment of the Company's net asset value. drilling in
Paipai and Sabisa expected to have a much higher risk and the expected
have the potential to increase the value of shares by 6 to 7 crowns
respectively, with 21-31 per share.

Pareto reiterated its buy recommendation for Africa Oil and
raises its target price from 92 to 96 dollars.

Moreover, Pareto believes that Africa Oil will implement
placementof $ 200 millionat the end of October, which
Bank has taken into account in the target price of 96 dollars.

.....................

In Stockholm geht es mit derzeit 2,4Mio Stück Umsatz auf die 73 Kronen zu, etwa 10,75CAD...
https://www.avanza.se/aza/aktieroptioner/kurslistor/aktie.js…

[Assegai]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 43.689.715 von Assegai am 08.10.12 14:26:26

Ups, falscher sräd! Kannst du es dann bitte im richtigen Forum nochmals tun?
LG
Assegai

[Assegai]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 43.683.105 von Staberhuk am 05.10.12 15:19:05

Hallo Staberhuk,

kannst du bitte nochmals den hotcopper-link zu PCL reinstellen?

Gruß
Assegai

[bmann025]

"spännande dag" schreibt einer im schwedischen Avanza Forum. Denke ich auch.

https://www.avanza.se/aza/press/forum/forum.jsp?forumId=1429…