Bombardier im Höhenflug :-) (Seite 87)

[Luki123]

So leute..einafch wie immer kaufen kaufen kaufen

Ich bin heute mal einen neuen Weg gegangen und werde ab jetzt keine Aktien direkt kaufen...die auswahl viel nun auf MB2AC9...Faktorzertifikat...
jeden Nachkauf mache ich jetzt über das Zertifikat mit Faktor 5...

[Luki123]

Scotiabank---slightly positive

Scotiabank - Strong Growth Execution to Start 2023, FCF More
Strong Growth Execution to Start 2023, FCF More 2H Skewed
OUR TAKE: Slight Positive. BBD reported yet another strong quarter in terms of top-line and bottom-line growth while backlog and book:bill ratio remained steady as demand and pricing are holding up well. However, FCF didn’t impress this time given production seasonality and timing/magnitude of certain cash flows. Management’s near-term outlook and unchanged guidance suggest FCF could remain weak in Q2 before rebounding to potentially >$600M in 2H. Leverage ratio remained steady q/q but should improve substantially by year-end, marching toward BBD’s 2025 target of 2.0x-2.5x. We remain positive with our Sector Outperform rating while raising our target to C$84 (was C$83) on our slightly improved net debt estimate. Stock remains attractive at 6.9x EV/EBITDA on our 2024E, close to its pre-pandemic trough of 6.0x, a steep discount to U.S. comps at 10x.

KEY POINTS

Strong start to 2023. Deliveries (ex-Learjet), revenue, EBITDA and EBIT grew 22%, 17%, 27% and 89% y/y, exceeding full-year guidance of at least 16%, 10%, 21% and 36%, respectively, while beating expectations (Exhibit 1). This was despite likely fewer deliveries of highest-priced Global 7500, in our view. EBITDA margin was roughly in line with full-year guidance and expectations, while EBIT margin was ahead due to lower amortization, supporting our view on delivery mix. Aftermarket revenue reached a new record of $424M (+17% y/y), driven by recent capacity growth, pricing gains and customer recapture. FCF of -$247M vs. +$173M last year missed our -$90M estimate and -$177M consensus, reflecting a working capital drag of $494M. BBD called out inventory build ($479M) to support higher production and annual incentive payment, partially offset by higher payables and customer progress payments. Backlog was flat q/q at $14.8B (+10% y/y) as book:bill ratio remained steady at 0.9x from 0.8x in Q4 (close to BBD’s ~1x plan) while lapping a tough comp (2.5x in Q1/22). Order activity was negatively impacted by a short-lived regional banking crisis in March.

Intact guidance implies greater Q4 skew. BBD maintained full-year guidance, which was issued in February 2023. However, based on Q1 results and the company’s Q2 outlook, it appears that deliveries and FCF could be even more skewed to Q4 than we previously thought. BBD expects deliveries to be flattish y/y in Q2 and more skewed to Q4, implying potentially >55 in Q4 vs. 49 last year and 22 in Q1. Further, it expects to make a $105M RVG payment (out of total $125M this year) and to build more inventory in Q2. In addition, we think capex could potentially increase q/q as the new Toronto facility nears completion in 2H while interest payments are typically more skewed to Q2 and Q4. Against that backdrop, we now expect FCF to remain negative in Q2 at -$128M before rebounding in Q3 and peaking in Q4. We remain comfortable in our largely intact annual forecasts as BBD noted stickiness in demand and pricing despite recent industry observations about slowing flying activity (albeit APAC picking up) and modestly rebounding pre-owned inventory at 5% vs. 3% last year (inventory of BBD jets remains low).

[Luki123]

Weitere

Globe
Following a “solid” start to the year and seeing “material potential upside” for its stock, National Bank Financial analyst Cameron Doerksen upgraded Bombardier Inc. (

BBD-B-T -4.90%decrease

) to “outperform” from “sector perform,” despite warning “the macroeconomic backdrop may remain challenging and new jet order activity could soften.”


“We downgraded Bombardier in February this year following a tremendous run for the stock through 2022, and since that time the stock has traded almost 12 per cent lower,” he said. “Given that financial results have subsequently come in above our expectations and the company increased its 2025 targets in late March, we see the current share price as a more attractive entry point.”

Even though it reported a revenue and earnings beat for its first quarter before the bell on Thursday, Bombardier shares dropped 4.9 per cent as investors worried about negative $247-million in free cash usage and the delivery of 22 jets, which fell below Mr. Doerksen’s 26-jet forecast.

“Bombardier’s $14.8 billion backlog provides visibility on the company’s planned delivery ramp from 123 in 2022 to 138+ in 2023 and 150 in 2025 (noting that our 2025 forecast more conservatively assumes 142 deliveries),” said the analyst. “We are comforted by the fact that backlog was stable in Q1 despite significant economic volatility, and we are encouraged that the company is seeing steady new order interest so far in Q2.

Seeing further deleveraging ahead, he added: “Bombardier has been highly successful in reducing debt and leverage and we forecast that leverage will fall from 5.4 times at the end of 2022 to a comfortable 2.2 times at the end of 2025.”

Raising his revenue and earnings projections through 2024 after Bombardier reaffirmed its 2023 guidance and 2025 targets, Mr. Doerksen increased his target for its shares to $85 from $79. The average is $78.14.

“If Bombardier can achieve its 2025 EBITDA target of $1.6 billion, based on a reasonable 7.0 times EV/EBITDA multiple, we would derive a future valuation of $115.00 per share,” he said. “Using our more conservative 2025 estimate, we still derive a future target of over $100.00 per share, which is materially higher than where the stock is trading today.”

Elsewhere, others making target adjustments include:

* Desjardins Securities’ Benoit Poirier to $100 from $99 with a “buy” rating.

“BBD reported neutral 1Q results,” said Mr. Poirier. “Management’s overall tone and messaging on the bizjet market remain positive, and we view the negative stock reaction as a buying opportunity. BBD continues to pay down debt (we expect further debt repayment in 2023) and improve its credit rating, which could open the company up to a larger pool of investors. We remain bullish on the short- and long-term prospects for BBD.”

* Scotia’s Konark Gupta to $84 from $83 with a “sector outperform” rating.

“BBD reported yet another strong quarter in terms of top-line and bottom-line growth while backlog and book:bill ratio remained steady as demand and pricing are holding up well,” said Mr. Gupta. “However, FCF didn’t impress this time given production seasonality and timing/magnitude of certain cash flows. Management’s near-term outlook and unchanged guidance suggest FCF could remain weak in Q2 before rebounding to potentially more than $600-million in 2H. Leverage ratio remained steady q/q but should improve substantially by year-end, marching toward BBD’s 2025 target of 2.0-2.5 times. We remain positive with our Sector Outperform rating while raising our target ... on our slightly improved net debt estimate.”

* RBC’s Walter Spracklin to $103 from $100 with an “outperform” rating.

[Luki123]

Jetzt heißt es wieder warten warten warten

also 430 Mille im Bereich Service schmeckt gaaaaanz lecker, margenerhöhung geht weiter. Vielleicht wird Q2 auch nochmal negativ im FCF aber im 2ten Halbjahr werden die was die Produktionsraten und den Cashflow angeht durchstrarten.
Vor allem haben die jetzt Geld in die Hand genommen um sich die Teile für die Produktion 2023 zu sichern und um den Ausbau der neuen Fertigungsanlage voran zu treiben.
Meiner Meinung nach richtig gut investiertes Geld...warte die ganze Zeit auf den Transcript vom Conference call. Werde den mit genuss lesen.


Ich glaube auch das die am Ende die avisierten 7,5 MRD Umsatz und 1,2 MRD Ebitda übertreffen werden.

Diese Aktie wird am Ende des Jahres viel weiter stehen müssen, wenn die weiter so arbeiten, ansonsten wird die Unterbewertung Quartal für Quartal immer größer, so dass es dann irgendwann wieder ein Explosion geben wird.

[neu_gierig]

juhuu

endlich wieder mal "aufgewacht", anst. Umsatz gestern, 1,560.000 Stückerln in Toronto und das bei 5% MINUS!!!!! Aber ok, die Analysten sind ja schon wieder auf NEUTRAL, mindestens!!!
Trotzdem, es ist schon sehr eigenartig, Tagelang nur ROT, ok, mit wenig Umsatz, dann kommen GUTE Zahlen und dann gehts richtig runter, noch dazu mit sehr hohem Umsatz, versteht kein Mensch, ok. vl gibts welche, ICH versteh es nicht!!!
Aber ich habe ja meinen L.....

Na da schauma mal wie es heute vor dem Wochenende wird, am Anfang GRÜN am Ende wieder ROT, oder aber es kommt die Gegenbewegung und wenn, dann hoffentlich mit viel Umsatz!!!
und meine befürchteten 60 C$ haben wir gestern ja doch gesehen, also reicht es eigentlich schon und es kann wieder "klettern", aber nicht zu schnell bitte....

😎😎😎

[Luki123]

Desjardin Neutral

Desjardins : express Pulse
Resilient 1Q23 results despite the regional banking crisis in the US

The Desjardins Takeaway: Neutral

BBD reported 1Q results which were mostly in line. Total revenue came in at US$1,453m, slightly above consensus of US$1,432m and below our estimate of US$1,502m. Adjusted EBITDA was US$212m (14.6% margin), above consensus of US$205m (we forecast US$207m), and adjusted EBIT was US$138m (9.5% margin), also above consensus of US$113m (we forecast US$111m). Finally, FCF (investors’ main focus) of -US$247m came in worse than consensus of -US$187m and our forecast of -US$150m, driven by working capital build in inventories for 2023 deliveries and continued investments to support the completion of a new facility at Toronto Pearson International Airport.

BBD delivered 22 business jets in 1Q (we expected 24 deliveries, as did consensus). The business jet backlog ended 1Q at US$14.8b, remaining flat sequentially (book-to-bill of 0.9x based on net new aircraft orders over aircraft deliveries in unit terms). We estimate the book-to-bill would have been ~0.8x if BBD had delivered the consensus 24 aircraft in the quarter.

More importantly, management reiterated its 2023 guidance—revenue >US$7.6b, adjusted EBITDA >US$1,125m, adjusted EBIT >US$695m, FCF >US$250m and deliveries >138 units.

Adjusted net debt/TTM EBITDA came in at 4.6x, remaining flat sequentially (we expected 4.7x). As of March 31, pro forma liquidity was ~US$1.4b and pro forma net debt was ~US$4.4b. BBD also announced a new NCIB program to purchase up to 600,000 Class B shares, representing ~0.69% of shares outstanding, in order to mitigate the dilutive effect of granted stock options. Moody’s April upgrade (to B2 from B3) report for BBD stated that a financial leverage ratio below 5.0x (using gross debt) and sustainable FCF could lead to an additional ratings upgrade. Using this calculation, we forecast BBD could reach this level in 4Q23.

We expect a neutral reaction given the reiterated guidance, same book-to-bill as that posted by Gulfstream, flat backlog and steady demand quoted by management, all despite the regional banking crisis which occurred in 1Q in the US (the largest bizjet market globally). The conference call at 8am EDT (dial-in 888-396-8049) will be key in terms of monitoring (1) the demand environment for business jets, and (2) debt repayment

[Luki123]

RBC ZIEL103 vorher 100

RBC: Up to 103$ (from 100$)
Another solid step forward as mgmt delivers another quarter of solid execution

Our view:

Q1 results reflect another step forward on BBD's continuing path toward executing growing deliveries, ramping up its services revenue, optimizing that revenue base to achieve solid margins, and using all of that to drive FCF and right-size its leverage. Targets are being met and raised and met again. Valuation remains extremely attractive in our view - to the point where we classify BBD as a fundamentally mis-priced security, exactly the thing we look for as investors. Reiterate BBD as our #1 investment idea across our coverage universe today.

Key points:

• Q1/23 results inline. EBITDA of $212MM, which was inline to slightly higher than consensus of $208MM (RBC $223MM). Driving this was strong margins up 120bps y/y, driven by Global 7500 margin expansion, along with other cost structure savings. FCF was lower at usage of ($247MM) vs consensus ($177MM) but in line with internal forecasts on a Q1 weighted capex work schedule. Deliveries were in line at 22 (vs our 23), while the order backlog (at $14.8B) and book to bill (at 0.9) were both steady sequentially.

• Demand remains robust. Late March saw a 3-week lull due to the regional banking crisis, which amplified the seasonally weaker quarter for orders; however since then new order activity has resumed to normal. Fleet customer flying activity remains well above 2019; APAC demand really picking up as Chinese nationals shift bizjet purchases into areas such as Singapore. Overall, demand environment remains very solid.

• New revenue opportunity creates further upside. Key is that as BBD executes to its 2025 plan, we believe the company will increasingly point to the $2B (annual run-rate) in new revenue opportunities in Defense and Certified Pre-Owned. We expect this will be built into a new multiyear guide, likely to be revealed in the coming year. With the near term trends still not being recognized in valuation (see below) we see this announcement as a key catalyst to the stock, driving substantial additional upside in our view.

• Estimates unchanged. Given the broadly in-line results, we are making no meaningful changes to either our 2023, 2024 or 2025 estimates; all consistent with management's official 2023 and 2025 guidance.

• Valuation still discounting 2025 targets - with little to no credit given to post 2025 in our view. Our PT is based on our 2025 estimates (which correspond with the company's 2025 targets); and we apply a 7.5x EV/ EBITDA multiple on that year, which is a full 25% discount to peers. Despite the meaningful discount, this does not capture the new revenue opportunities post-2025 highlighted above. Our base case PT of $103 (up marginally on debt reduction) already implies attractive >50% return; and we point to a $200 scenario if we incorporate the $2B in new revenue opportunity in 2025-2030. Accordingly, we continue to view Bombardier as our #1 investment idea across our coverage universe today

[neu_gierig]

Okeee

Dann doch nicht ganz ohne Worte.

Eigentlich fast schon kriminell das ganze, abs. Nicht nachvollziehbar! Natürlich wird der Kurs so schnell er auch fällt, wieder recht schnell steigen, aber die Art u Weise wie damit umgegangen wird, abs. Zum 🤢 KOTZEN, ja genau….
Seit Jahren das beste Q1 Ergebnis und der Kurs bricht schon bald um 10% ein 🤮🤮🤮 wie soll man das verstehen?

[neu_gierig]

OHNE WORTE…

…………………..

[Luki123]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 73.744.601 von neu_gierig am 27.04.23 14:19:50

Position vervierfacht