Bombardier im Höhenflug :-) (Seite 96)

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na bitte.....

doch heute!!!!

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Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 73.575.036 von Luki123 am 29.03.23 13:47:43

ähhh, wer bitte ist "CreditSwiss" ???

Zitat von Luki123: Die scheinen noch billig Aktien zu wollen...und am besten finde ich das rating von Credit swiss..die haben ja bewiesenermaßen keine ahnung ubd sind selber geschluckt worden

[Luki123]

Lächerlich

Die scheinen noch billig Aktien zu wollen...und am besten finde ich das rating von Credit swiss..die haben ja bewiesenermaßen keine ahnung ubd sind selber geschluckt worden

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Ausserdem, 70,- C$

werden wir evtl. heute oder evtl. morgen wieder mal "antesten", ob es für mehr in den nächsten Tagen/Wochen reichen wird, hmm, schauma mal.... 📈🤑🤑

[neu_gierig]

ohhh...

doch nicht alles Gold was glänzt ?

aber OK, no Risk - no Fun !!!!

https://www.stocktargetadvisor.com/blog/bombardier-jp-morgan…

naja, ich liege ja im Liegestuhl, da werde ich mich von so einem Beitrag doch nicht aus der Ruhe bringen lassen, also bleib ich da und genieße weiter....

[Luki123]

TD

TD: Maintain at 83$
2023 Investor Call; Growth Potential While Risk Declines

Event

Yesterday, Bombardier hosted an investor call and updated its strategic plan and 2025 financial targets.

Impact: SLIGHTLY POSITIVE

We are maintaining our BUY recommendation and C$83.00 target price. Due to the fact that our previous forecasts reflected slightly stronger results than previous 2025 targets, only minor forecast revisions were necessary (beyond 2023) to reflect new information including updated capital structure modeling. We believe that its strong franchise, growing EBITDA, strengthening normalized FCF, and decreasing financial leverage make it an attractive investment opportunity. We believe that increased 2025 company financial targets remain achievable, and we assume that management is continuing its practice of setting conservative targets that offer upside potential. However, we believe that the heightened global economic and geopolitical uncertainties justify a cautious approach to results beyond 2023.

Bombardier's investor day provided a comprehensive overview of growth drivers through the middle of the decade, operational plans for achieving targeted margins and FCF, and options for capital deployment and shareholder value creation that are anticipated by 2025. We believe that the defense and certified pre-owned (CPO) businesses have the potential to support revenue, EBITDA, margins, and ROIC beyond 2025. We forecast a 20% CAGR in Adjusted EBITDA over the next three years, and believe that the strength and length of the backlog will reduce the risk to earnings and FCF in 2023.

Although business jet activity is (not surprisingly) moderating from the unsustainably high levels of H1/22, we view the moderation as constructive for limiting the long-term volatility and health of the cycle. Our target multiple of 8.0x represents a 20% discount to its comp-group five-year pre-pandemic average, and compares with its current forward multiple of approximately 7.7x. We believe that there will be an upward bias to its valuation multiple over the next three years as deleveraging continues, economic uncertainty moderates, and the company demonstrates the value in its focus on the medium and large-cabin business jet industry.

TD Investment Conclusion

We believe that Bombardier's business aviation franchise is strong and that the declining financial leverage, backlog, production plans, and free-cash-flow visibility justify a higher share price

Note from LB1: You will find the summary above . I add the following part of the full report for your interest. This is the second analyst that highlited the anormally low apex in the management's forecasts.

Capital expenditure restraint provides for significant FCF: The company is currently planning $200 million-$300 million (TD forecast: $299 million) of capex in 2025. This is down from previous indications of $500 million-$600 million due to the absence of what was previously disclosed as a ‘strategic investment’. We do not believe investors should interpret this to mean that capex definitely will not be higher in 2025, but that the company does not see an immediate need for investment in a new aircraft program and that the updated targets are intended to provide a superior indicator of the FCF of the business when considering maintenance and sustaining capex only. We estimate that full-capex-cycle average FCF could be in the range of $700 million-$750 million by 2025 ($7.00-$7.50/share).

[Luki123]

Am 29.03 11:30 a.m Pressekonferenz von Eric Martel

Was er da wohl zu sagen hat? Was nicht auf dem Investorentag gesagt werden konnte? hmmmmm klingt komisch...

[Luki123]

RBC: a reasonable upside scenario of 200$
2025 guidance raise is good; 2030 should be even
better; target to $100 with upside scenario at $200

Our view: Investor Day 2023 caps off a number of key positives to the
BBD investment thesis, including: strong execution since the initial targets
were set in 2021; material raise to guidance, well above expectations;
significantly lowered investment risk profile; and indications of more to
come. Adding this together and comparing it to the current valuation yields
what investors search for: a fundamentally mispriced security. Our price
target goes to $100, but we point to what we view as a reasonable upside
scenario of $200. BBD is and remains our top investment idea today.

Key points:

Investor Day 2023. Mgmt held its Investor Day event (virtual format) where
it 1) recapped the strong success since the targets were set in 2021; 2)
substantially increased the 2025 targets; and 3) suggested more to come
post 2025. Highlights as follows:

Impressive Execution. While the focus was on the increase to 2025
guidance, we would be remiss not to flag the significant achievement
made since 2020: 23% increase in revenue; a 4-fold increase in EBITDA;
cumulative FCF which was supposed to be non-existent over the last 2 years
came in at $835MM; debt reduced by 45%; leverage targets ~2 years early;
and credit rating upgrades that followed.

Increased 2025 guidance. Guidance was increased materially for 2025,
with revenue targets up by 20% to $9B and (particularly notable) FCF target
up 80% to >$900MM. See Exhibit 2.

More to come. What was not unveiled at this Investor Day is the company's
2030 targets - so we are unveiling our own 2030 scenario. Factoring in the
new growth drivers (e.g. CPO and Defense), we see line of sight to almost
$13B in revenue, $2.6B in EBITDA and $1.3B in FCF (all inclusive of a major
$2B clean sheet program).

Risks lowered. While macro is uncertain, we see less risk to the (higher)
2025 target than before. This is on the basis of substantially lower leverage
than had been anticipated; and a backlog of 2 years that now extends into
the target year (vs. in 2021 a backlog that was still being reconstituted).

BBD's current share price looks significantly mispriced - PT to $100. With
the risk factor associated with investing in BBD, in our view, significantly
lower than where it was 2 years ago, the multiple still reflects a 45%
discount to peers. Accordingly, we move our target multiple to 7.5x (from
6.5x) and our PT goes to $100 (from $89). Moreover, if we go out to 2030 to
incorporate what we expect to be the new revenue streams, low leverage,
and (by then) strong track record - valuing the shares in-line with peers (and
discounting back 6 years at 8%) yields a one-year valuation of $200. With
that upside potential, BBD is and remains our top investment idea

[Luki123]

Next one

Scotiabank ups target to $83, (potentially to $175)
Latest Research (March 24, 2023):OUR TAKE: Positive. We came away from BBD’s investor day incrementally positive on an impressive turnaround story with our 2025E improving on better-than-expected guidance raise, which drives our target to C$83 (was C$80). We have baked in some conservatism in our estimates relative to a “potentially conservative” guidance, reflecting our cautious macro view in light of the ongoing uncertainties. While the double layer of cushion implies downside risk to our outlook should be relatively limited in a dire macro scenario, the upside risk could be quite significant for the stock if 2025 targets do come to fruition. Assuming a reasonable 8x-10x EV/EBITDA multiple for a nearly investment-grade-rated business, BBD’s 2025 targets (at lowend) would imply an equity valuation of C$130 (at 8x) to C$175 (at 10x) per share, a significant 105%-175% potential return over the next two years. We believe 2025 may not be the end game as there could be earnings upside, shareholder returns or even strategic actions beyond 2025. Thus, we think the risk/reward is highly attractive for investors with a longer-term horizon. We re-iterate our Sector Outperform rating.

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Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 73.547.317 von Luki123 am 24.03.23 14:12:12

Zitat von Luki123: Desjardins : Target to 99$ (potential for 191$ !!!)
Investor day recap—still plenty of untapped potential

The Desjardins Takeaway

Yesterday, BBD raised its 2025 financial targets in connection with its 2023 virtual
investor day. We are pleased by the updated targets given the stronger-than-expected
FCF, revenue, delivery targets and the absence of a plan to develop a clean-sheet design
before the balance sheet has fully recovered (less capital-intensive, more favourable to
creditors and less risky). We remain bullish and recommend investors revisit the story.

Highlights

BBD now targeting 150 deliveries in 2025. Management’s target assumes aircraft sales
of >US$7b and ~150 deliveries in 2025. This target could be increased again as BBD has
the capacity to flex up to 200 aircraft/year.

2025 adjusted EBITDA margin target decreased to ~18% from ~20%—not a cause
for concern. We do not view the decrease in margin outlook as an overly bearish
indicator given management maintained its aftermarket target, which decreased its mix
contribution to 22% (from 27%) of total 2025 revenue. Looking at the industry, an 18%
adjusted EBITDA margin would still position BBD at the higher end of the spectrum.

FCF of US$900m+ and leverage of 2.0–2.5x a key driver—leverage target likely
conservative. We derive 1.6x, which should drive an investment-grade rating, driving
significant benefits to Bombardier, such as better cost of capital, improved access to
liquidity and opening the company to a larger pool of potential investors.
Lower leverage will provide BBD with optionality for several capital-deployment
opportunities post-2025. (1) Reinvesting in existing operations, (2) launching a new
clean-sheet or derivative aircraft, (3) tuck-in M&A, or (4) shareholder returns.

Valuation

Adjusting our forecast and increasing our target to C$99 (from C$97) to account for
the change in FX rates. Our target is based on an EV/EBITDA multiple of 8x on our 2024
EBITDA forecast of US$1,331m. We have adjusted our exchange rate assumption to C
$1.37/US$1 (from C$1.34/US$1).

Recommendation

Reiterating our bullish stance. The update gave us further confidence in management’s
ability to meet (and potentially surpass) its 2025 targets. We believe the stock could be
worth C$191 in 2025 using a 10x EV/EBITDA multiple if management delivers on these
objectives

Jaaaa, kannst dich erinnern, ähnliche Kurse hatten wir voriges Jahr schon vorher gesagt, die Reaktionen habe ich heute noch im Kopf, ok, nicht ganz genau, aber trotzdem…..
Na dann schauma mal wo die Reise heuer hin geht….📈📈📈