Dollar-Fall erzeugt Gold-Hausse ? - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[weinberg-1]

Ich verstehe nicht ganz, was der Rückgang des Dollars mit dem Goldpreis zu tun hat ? Wenn ich mich von fallendem Dollar schützen will, gehe ich doch in den Euro oder Yen und nicht ins Gold ? Oder ist das nur eine allgemein verbreitete Sprechblase mit dem sinkenden Dollar?

Kann mir da jemand weiterhelfen ?

[Big-Apple]

Wenn ich mir ansehe, wie sich der Euro und der Goldpreis seit einem Jahr gegenüber dem Dollar entwickelt haben, weiß ich was hart ist und was weich ist. Der Goldpreis hat sich gehalten, der Euro ist deutlich gefallen - sowohl gegenüber dem Goldpreis als auch gegenüber dem Dollar.

[Goldhotline]

Natürlich hat der Goldpreisanstieg mit den Dollarrückgang nichts zu tun. Aber was sollen denn die Journalisten schreiben, die den Markt nicht kennen? Dann schreibt man halt das, wovon man glaubt, daß es die Leser fressen.

Die Goldhotline

[Jestofunk]

Hallo Weinberg-1,

ich bin zwar kein Fachmann, aber diesbezüglich habe ich bei S. J. Kaplan einige interessante Antworten gefunden. Doch lese selbst.

"...FROM APRIL 24: QUESTION: What do you think of the fact that the U.S. dollar has remained steady in spite of weakness in the Nasdaq? ANSWER: This is the primary reason that gold has not yet rallied. Normally the greenback follows the stock market lower after a delay, and obviously the delay has not yet been completed. With the continually rising U.S. trade deficit, even a modest decrease in net foreign investment into the U.S. financial markets will cause a significant drop in the U.S. dollar, as more dollars going overseas to pay for imports will have to be sold. Probably one or two more sharp down days in so-called "safe" blue chips such as IBM and GE will be needed to cause a dollar selloff, as investors conclude that there is no safe haven in the shares of major U.S. corporations which led the bull market for many years.

FROM APRIL 25: QUESTION: Do you think that the euro is going to continue to decline indefinitely? ANSWER: Definitely not. The euro is going to make a sharp and dramatic rebound versus most other world currencies, including the U.S. dollar. This is confirmed not only by traders` commitments but also by international flows of funds via trade and investment. As with gold, the trigger for the turnaround is likely to be a sharp drop in blue-chip U.S. equities such as GE and IBM which have seen their P/E ratios grossly inflated by money fleeing the Nasdaq, and which are foolishly considered safe by most investors, just as Microsoft was considered a sure bet before its recent slide.

FROM MAY 9: QUESTION: What do you believe will be the next important development in the world financial markets? ANSWER: In my opinion, the most critical occurrence, though it may garner only limited media attention, will be the sharp drop in the value of the U.S. dollar over the next few years, beginning in the very near future, and accelerating as the U.S. inevitably heads into a recession probably beginning in the year 2001 and intensifying in 2002 and 2003. The cheaper dollar will help to reduce the huge U.S. trade deficit, as imports become less affordable for U.S. citizens, while American products become more competitive overseas. However, the predominant feature of the U.S. economy is currently its financial markets, not its merit as an exporting power. As foreign investors see the dollar sliding, they will perceive the value of U.S. stocks, bonds, and real estate to be declining sharply in terms of their native currencies, which will perpetuate their continued decline. Thus investors will notice stocks and bonds retreating in tandem, while the greenback fades into oblivion, thus creating the ideal situation for gold and its shares. The most recent traders` commitments confirm that corporate treasurers of major multinational corporations are generally betting against the U.S. dollar.

FROM MAY 10: What is going to be the critical trigger that causes the U.S. dollar to fall? ANSWER: No one knows. That is why an understanding of the fundamentals, along with the traders` commitments, the sentiment readings, and the technical patterns is so useful. With the huge U.S. trade deficit showing unequivocally that the greenback cannot sustain its current level unless there is equivalent net foreign investment into U.S. assets, and given the logical conclusion that such net foreign investment is decreasing due to the recent pullback in the Nasdaq, one can be certain that the dollar is fundamentally overvalued. Given charts, commitments, and sentiment data, one can conclude that this overvaluation is going to be resolved in the very near future. The only thing one doesn`t know is exactly how and why. In reality, it makes no difference, as long as you make money by being on the correct side of the trade. Let your friends ponder the metaphysics as you laugh all the way to the bank.

FROM MAY 17: QUESTION: Won`t the recent rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve lead to a stronger dollar and therefore a lower gold price? ANSWER: No. Although the initial knee-jerk reaction may be for investors to buy dollars, the inevitable slowdown in the U.S. economy which will result from the recent Fed rate hikes will have a far greater negative effect on the dollar than the positive impact of a greater nominal interest value for time deposits. If the U.S. dollar were really going to rise, overseas investors would be eager to buy U.S.-denominated bonds and notes, whereas they are actually reducing their net purchases of such securities. More importantly, the Treasury yield curve would be normal, not inverted; an inverted curve, in which the 5-year Treasury has a higher yield than the 30-year Treasury, almost always leads to a recession and a lower greenback. The 6-month Treasury has a higher yield than the 30-year Treasury; even the 3-month has almost as high a return as the long bond. Also, a look at previous historical occasions when the Fed raised rates at this pace shows that in almost all cases the U.S. dollar became weaker, not stronger, after several rate increases had been made.

FROM MAY 19: What do you think will be the impact of the monthly U.S. trade deficit above thirty billion dollars? ANSWER: This ensures that an even larger amount of net foreign investment is needed to keep the dollar stable at current levels, since so many more dollars are leaving the U.S. to pay for imports than are returning to buy U.S. exports. With the recent weakness and unpredictability of the U.S. stock market, it hardly seems likely that net foreign investment will increase; if anything, it is probably already being reduced. This is especially true since U.S. equities, which outperformed most of the rest of the world on the way up, are likely to decline more sharply in a worldwide bear market.

FROM MAY 22: QUESTION: What do you think about the recent strength in the euro versus the U.S. dollar? ANSWER: We are probably beginning to trace the right shoulder in a typical reverse head-and-shoulders bottom in the euro. Some investors who rode the euro all the way down are going to sell into this bounce from the bottom, glad to finally get out at what they consider to be an inflated price. Once it is clear that the euro is not going to collapse to new lows, it will begin a stronger, more sustained recovery. Proclaimed Deutsche Bundesbank President Ernst Welteke, "How the herd mentality of the market can lead to a wide deviation of the market value from fundamentals is clearly seen in the external value of the euro." According to Welteke, the euro is 20% to 30% undervalued versus the U.S. dollar.

FROM MAY 23: QUESTION: What do you think about the fact that the U.S. dollar seems to have potentially topped out against the euro and the Australian dollar? ANSWER: This is the most positive potential bullish development for gold. It is still possible that the greenback could have one final upside gasp, as a head fake in one direction is common before a strong move in the opposite direction. However, the direction for the next several months seems to have finally been clearly established. As this was the last, critical missing link for a gold rally, the stage should be set for a significant upside move to begin within the next several days. Since this often accelerates over a Thursday-Friday timeframe, the next few weeks are likely to see a 10% rally in the XAU on any given Thursday-Friday interval. Exactly which Thursday-Friday pair will be the "lucky" one is impossible to know in advance.

FROM MAY26: QUESTION #1: What do you think about this week`s performance in the U.S. dollar, and how will that affect the price of gold and gold mining shares? ANSWER: The greenback appears to have established a major top versus all of the important currencies which correlate with the price of gold, including the euro, the Swiss franc, and the Australian dollar. While the U.S. dollar will still have a strong day now and then, the primary direction is likely to continue toward a weaker American currency, accelerating after there is general acknowledgment that a new trend has indeed been established. Investor and analyst sentiment is still strongly bullish toward the U.S. dollar, the reversal of which will be a significant event in the dollar`s inevitable slide. Now that commodities have established a new two-year high, while nearly all of the remaining speculative long positions in COMEX gold futures were cleared out by the recent pullback in the yellow metal, a sustained gold rally should commence imminently. It will bring gold to a new two-year high of at least $355 per ounce at some point during the year 2000, and the XAU to at least 100. The fact that so few expect gold to even touch $300 increases the likelihood of a much sharper move higher, as skeptics will be caught completely by surprise. Brokerages will have to scramble to upwardly revise their estimates which they just finished downgrading right at or very close to the bottom.

FROM MAY 31: QUESTION: What is your outlook for the U.S. dollar in the near future? ANSWER: The U.S. dollar has recently completed a major top against the Swiss franc, the euro, and the Australian dollar. Thus, it now has technical weakness to accompany its fundamental overvaluation, which as we saw with the Nasdaq two months ago, is a recipe for a major pullback. The greenback`s decline should accelerate significantly over the next several weeks. Yesterday`s (Tuesday, May 30) activity was especially significant from a watershed viewpoint, as even a strong rally in U.S. equities could not help the dollar close with a net gain for the day. As soon as key charting points for the dollar are breached, its slide will become more pronounced as buy-stops in speculative short positions in foreign currency futures are triggered in a cascade of short covering. This will cause speculative short positions in gold futures to be hit in sympathetic response, and the yellow metal to therefore rally.

FROM JUNE 2: QUESTION #1: What do you think are the implications of a rising U.S. stock market and a falling U.S. dollar? ANSWER: This is often the final stage before a substantial stock market drop, as we saw in Japan in 1989, or in the U.S. in 1987 or 1990. To foreign investors, the sliding greenback will make it seem as though U.S. equities are actually flat to lower, rather than rising, so they will gradually invest less money in the U.S. This cutback in U.S. fund inflows will cause a further drop in the U.S. dollar, which will lead to a continued reduction in net foreign investment, which will lead to a renewed drop in the dollar. Eventually even domestic investors will see U.S. equities falling in price and the rout will be underway. Although today`s economic data hinted at an economic slowdown, the real test will be over the next few years as an actual recession is likely to occur and equities worldwide will go out of favor. A falling U.S. dollar will also reduce net foreign investment interest in U.S. Treasuries, though this will be partly offset by money exiting equities for the relative safety of U.S. government paper. Gold, of course, loves the prospect of an economic slowdown and is therefore likely to continue to rally sharply over the next few years. Its rise will be assisted by the fact that domestic U.S. inflation generally increases moderately when the U.S. currency is weak, as imports become more expensive in dollar terms. ..."

(gesammelt aus www.goldminingoutlook.com)

[Josef Schildkraut]

also, ich seh´ da schon einen zusammenhang. solange der preis für den dollar stark war und eine trendumkehr sich nicht abzeichnete, warum sollte dann jemand in gold investieren?

goldinvestitionen sind für mich auch nur reine spekulationen. die einen machens short und die anderen wie ich long. und man muß sich nur die "unmotivierten" ausbrüche anschauen. wenn man sich die charts anschaut und denkt es wäre eine aktien, dann braucht man oft nur ein lineal, um den nächsten ausbruch vorherzusagen.

wenn es aber um spekulationen geht, die long oder short ausgeführt werden, dann braucht man eigentlich auch nicht über verschwörungen, manipulationen etc. zu klagen, denn es geht nur um cash und wichtig ist dabei nur, auf der richtigen seite zu stehen. dies mußte ich auch einmal loswerden auf dieser seite, denn wenn ich lese, wie vernünftig hier auf diesen seiten diskutiert wird und wieviel verschwörungstheorien aufgetischt werden von bösartigen mächten, dann denke ich, manches könnte auch auf der coach besprochen werden.

und wenn die finsteren mächte unseren goldpreis ruinieren und mir mein sauer verdientes geld vorenthalten, dann laßt uns zur nächsten speku ziehen. aber im augenblick sieht es gut aus. und es heißt ja auch, kaufe tief, verkaufe teuer.

trotzdem viele grüße

[just_do_it_de]

Danke jestofunk
für Deine komprimierten Text-Infos

Laut Kaplan gibt es einen Zusammenhang
zwischen Aktienmarkt, US-Dollar und US-Leistungsbilanzdefizit
zumindest müßte das Leistungsbilanzdefizit den US-Dollar-Fall
beschleunigen.

Bottom-fishing ist der Beste Weg !!! Gold hat 20-Jahres-Tief
Siehe Langzeichtchart-Gold ab 1975 www.the-privateer.com
Kurzzeitschart-Gold www.chartdoc.de


Von 1970 bis 1999 schwankte die US-Leistungsbilanz in Prozent des BIP
Zwischen –1% u. +1%

Der Ausreisser beim Leistungsbilanzsaldo zum US-BIP in Prozent
Die Ausnahme war März 85 bis Okt 87 -4%
Die Ausnahme war Juli 98 bis Dez99 -4%
Heft Nr. 13 / Jahrgang 2000 Seite 124 Boerse-Online
Kann man bestellen http://www.boerse-online.de



Der Aussreiser beim Gold
Gold stieg von März85 bis Okt87 von 280 US-$ bis 500 US-$ aufwärts
Gold wird diesmal auch steigen,
da im Dez99 das US-BIP wieder auf -4% steht
Siehe Langzeitchart 1974 – 2000 www.the-privateer.com





Zumindest bestätigt Kaplan steigt das US-Leistungsbilanzdefizit sinkt der US-Dollar
Sinkt der US-Dollar könnte dies sich günstig auf den Goldpreis auswirken.

Auch stand im Board schon, dass die Japaner einen Teil ihrer US-Staatsanleihen
Verkaufen.

1980 lag die US-Sparquote noch bei ca. 6% - 8%

Stand Dez99
Die US-Sparquote ist negativ ca. –2% , -3% d.h. die USA lebt auf Kredit
Die Sparquote Europa liegt bei ca. +10%
Die Sparquote Asien liegt bei ca. +16%

Die Europäer u. Japaner legen ihr Geld in US-Aktien u. US-Staatsanleihen an
Und finanzieren damit die Kreditausgaben der USA.

Wenn die Japaner aber einen Teil der US-Staatsanleihen verkaufen
Wird es Turbulenzen am US-Markt geben.
z.B. verkaufe ich US-Staatsanleihen bevor der US-Dollar fällt
Die US-Gesamtschulden in % vom BSP
1920 bei 115%
1929 bei 230%
1950 bei 120%
1999 bei 320%

das bedeudet für jeden US-Dollar der erwirtschaftet wird müssen
3,20 US-Dollar Schulden bezahlt werden.

Übrigens wenn ich Japaner wäre und der US-Dollar fällt würde ich US-Staatsanleihen
Kurz vor dem US-Dollar-Verfall verkaufen.
US-$ im Moment bei ca. 2.- DM
Fairer Wert vom US-$ war mal bei 1,40 DM
Wer kennt denn noch die Zahl 1,40 DM , zeigt der Euro doch den schönen
Wert einer starken US-Scheinwährung.

[kveite]

@ Goldhotline

Wenn Ihr wirklich der Meinung seid, daß Goldpreisanstieg und Dollarrückgang nichts miteinander zu tun haben, dann zweifle ich heftig an Eurer Kompetenz.

Goldpreis und Dollar haben schon seit Jahrzehnten eine negative Korrelation, Nicht $ Währungen wie Yen und DM(Euro) haben eine starke positive Korrellation.

John Murphy läßt grüßen.

Kveite

[Basic]

Hallo zusammen,
wenn zwei Größen (Dollar und Gold )in korrelation gesetzt werden, kann mann leider keine Aussge zum resr der Währungen machen. Da müssen andere Verknüpfungen her.
Wenn Gold aber nun in $ bezahlt wird und der Wert vom $ fällt, muss ich ganz einfach mehr $ auf den Tisch des Hauses legen. Im Verhältnis zum EUR zb könnte der Goldpreis stagnieren.
Vorteile bringt ein höherer Goldpreis in $ zur Zeit nur für die Mienen, da dort dieser bekannte Hebel ansetzt. Für die Mienen bringt also der $ Verfall schon was. Hoffe ich...
Gruß Basic

[Goldhotline]

Nach unserer Analyse (Literatur: JASTRAM, R.W.: The Golden Constant, New York 1977) und eigenen Beobachtungen kommen wir zu dem Schluß, daß der Goldpreis über die Jahrhunderte weniger mit der Inflation und dem Dollar korreliert als mit der Qualität der Geldpolitik. Da der Goldpreis vor 1968 fixiert war und seit etwa 1988 durch den Aufbau von Shortpositionen nicht mehr frei notiert, halten wir aber auch diese Beobachtung nur für eingeschränkt gültig).

Die Goldhotline