Kamps warum fällt der Kurs? - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[senni]

Ich beobachte die MDAX-Aktie schon länger.

Warum der spontane Anstieg auf 33 E und dann der klassische Abfall auf siehe unter 30.

Wielange wird der Kurs noch heruntergedrückt.Ich habe den Eindruck selbst Fondeinkäufer zocken
kurzfristig.

Alle News und Firmenzahlen sind super.

Wer gibt mir einen Tip. Einsteigen?????

[I.C.P.]

Der Kurs geht heute nochmal so runter nachdem in EURO am SONNTAG schlechte Nachrichten nur "Halteposition" schechtes "eigenes" Wachstum von nur ca. 5% veröffentlicht wurden.
Da sich im Momement keine eindeutige Tendenz erkennen läßt wurde ich Dir Raten zu warten bis diese zu erkennen ist, bei nachhaltigem überschrieten der 32-33 Euro könnte ein Einstieg wieder interessant werden, da dann ein wichtiger Widerstand durchbrochen wäre.

[ankhmorpork]

Sehe ich auch so , guckt euch mal den 1 Jahrestrend an , der Kurs prallt regelmäßig an der 100 Tage Linie ab , z.Zt KEIN Kauf , beobachte diese selbst seit längerem , werde aber auch noch warten , Zahlen des Unternehmens und Ideen des Herrn Heiner Kamps sind super...

bis denn ,
Ankh-Morpork

[Schnuggele]

Earnings dynamic expected to slow down in 2001

* Following the analysts’ conference yesterday and discussions with management, we revise our earnings per share estimates for 2000 and 2001 downwards to €0,83 and €0,89 respectively. Advisory costs for completing the Harry´s akquisition burden the operating result this year, while from 2001 onwards goodwill amortization charges, higher interest expenses and a higher tax bracket will come into effect. We do not expect the acquisition to become earnings accretive before 2002.

* Strategically, however, we view this latest step positively. After last year’s Wendeln acquisition, Harry’s represents another milestone in Kamps’ strategy to expand rapidly within Europe. Harry’s opens the door to the Southern European market and provides the group with excellent brand management know-how, which will be a valuable asset in the process of building up a “Kamps” brand and exploiting the Wendeln brands (Golden Toast and Lieken Urkorn) more efficiently.

* Reflecting the lower than expected earnings dynamics for the next year which might cause some disappointment in the market, we downgrade the stock to hold, despite our overall appreciation of the group’s strategy.



Size matters – Kamps widens gap to competition

The acquisition of Harry’s in France adds an additional DM440m (49% stake of DM900m) to Kamps’ topline, thereby increasing the gap to the international competition even further. Including the acquisition (effective from 1 Oct 2000), on a full year basis Kamps is more than twice as big as its closest competitors in the bakery industry, Tomkins and ABF in Great Britain. The acquisition increased the group’s critical mass in the industrial segment, where Kamps with Wendeln, Quality Bakers and Harry’s generates revenues three times the size of the next biggest market player, Panrico in Spain (sales €450m). Additionally Kamps plans to acquire the remaining stake in Harry’s over the next three years at pre-agreed earnings multiples, which forms an attractive incentive for the existing management who own around 3% of the company. Kamps pointed out that the approach to acquire 49% in the first tranche - which does not comply with the group’s strategy to date - was chosen to secure management support and to reduce the risk of possible cultural clashes. Nevertheless Kamps can exert its veto right on major decisions taken at Harry’s. With Harry’s being tied-into the Kamps’ empire, the existing threat of a possible link-up ofcompetitors decreases markedly, as not too many large players are left. We expect market consolidation to accelerate and see Kamps as the major beneficiary of this development over the next few years.

Strategically a coherent step

Harry’s has built up strong brand names (Harry’s, La Bella Easo, Dan Cake) in the pre-packaged bread and cake segment in France, Spain, Italy, Belgium, Eastern Europe, Scandinavia and Turkey. The group shows a convincing track record of expanding into new regions and launching new, innovative product lines under an umbrella brand concept in the market Harry’s, which for example successfully introduced American Sandwich as a product line in France, is estimated to hold a 40% market share in the French packaged bakery products segment. The group is also excellently positioned in Spain, where the product focus is on Magdalenas, Brioches and Croissants, with market shares ranging between 25% and 50% in these categories. Having previously worked for major consumer goods

companies such as Unilever or Coca Cola, Harry’s management has an extensive brand management background. We therefore believe that, in addition to the international experience, Kamps will particularly benefit from the knowledge transfer relating to brand management expertise, which will be supportive in establishing and extending the existing brands “Kamps” in the bakery segment, as well as “Lieken Urkorn” and “Golden Toast” in the pre-packaged category. Due to Harry’s strong focus on “white products” and the geographic remoteness to Kamps’ existing markets, we see only limited synergy potential in purchasing and logistics/distribution arising from the transaction. Harry’s EBIT margin for the current year is expected to amount to 5%. While we expect margins in France to exceed 10%, the international expansion as well as the loss-making cake division is currently driving the group’s margins down. In the medium-term, management anticipates Harry’s will achieve a margin level of above 8%, which would bring it up to the same level as Wendeln. However, with regard to the cost structure, Harry’s differs from the German group, as it is more heavily focussed on marketing – a cost position which amounts to approximately 5% of sales.

Earnings dynamic expected to slow down in 2001

For the current year, the company will most likely fall short of its target to increase EBIT fivefold. The company claims that advisory charges related to the Harry’s acquisition (approximately DM30m) were expected to be smaller and so it would be very ambitious to assume that the group will still reach its original full year EBIT target of DM250m. With regard to the group’s sales projection of at least DM3.5bn for the current year, we need to take into account that this figure includes Harry’s on a full year basis. As the acquisition only becomes effective as of 1 October, we revise our full year sales figures down to DM3.16m. We believe that there might be some misunderstanding in the market with regard to these figures, which might lead to some disappointment over the next few months.

For 2001 we base our earnings forecasts on revenues of around DM3.65m, which include the 49% consolidation of Harry’s for the full year and a 5% organic growth rate for the group. Please note, that no new acquisitions ora likely step-up in Harry’s stake have been included. For the existing business we expect EBIT margins to improve at Wendeln from around 8.5% this year to 8.8% next year and for Kamps retail bakeries from 6.2% to 6.8%. With the acquisition of Harry’s, goodwill for acquired brand names will be created. While the process of evaluating the brands is currently continuing, we assume an annual DM15m amortization charge for intangibles, which will be written-down over a period of 15 to 20 years. Despite the amortization charge, the group should be able to show an overall increase in EBIT of 27.5%, which equals a margin of 7.7% compared to 7.0% this year. The group’s net result will, however, just show a minor rise of 6.6%. The reasons for the underproportionate

development are twofold: Firstly, we assume an increase in interest expense from the expected DM56m this year to DM80.2m next year. This is based on the estimated acquisition price for Harry’s of around DM500m (1.1x sales multiple), which will be largely debt financed. It needs to be pointed out, however, that approximately DM35m of the interest expense is related to the zero coupon bond and does not reflect a cash outflow. Secondly, Harry’s is in a higher tax bracket (40%) than the Kamps group – which will drive-up the group’s rising tax rate by a couple of additional points. We reduce our EPS forecast to €0,83 (€0,97) and €0,89 (€1,36) for the years 2000 and 2001 respectively and consequently downgrade our recommendation from buy to hold. We still view Kamps’ strategy as positive, but believe that the group will need some time to digest the acquisition. With the increasing size of the group, earnings growth rates will slow down and this development might cause some disappointment in the market, as higher target figures are still floating around.

[senni]

Ich habe in der Kampshomepage von hohen Verbindlichkeiten gelesen.
Vielleicht schneidet die Aktie deshalb in der E a. S und div. Börsenbriefen relativ schlecht ab.

[senni]

Ich habe trotz aller Zweifel gekauft.

Verbindlichkeiten sind bei allen Unternehmen vorhanden, die Frage ist nur, was man draus macht.

Diesbezgl. hört sich die Kampsstrategie für die Zukunft ganz gut an.

[Kronen1]

Die 29er-Marke wird aber stark verteidigt. Die Investoren die H.Kamps nächste Woche in den USA (Roadshow) wieder überzeugen wird, sollen schliesslich nicht zu günstig einsteigen können.

[Paladin]

Wundert mich eigentlich nicht weiter. Der Kurs ist in der letzten Zeit eigentlich zu schnell nach oben (weil viele aufgesprungen sind), aber jetzt schauen auch mal wieder mehr nach den fundamentalen Daten. Und schon alleine das KGV ist doch ein bisserl hoch, oder?