meinungen zu global crossing (gblx) - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[ekoman]

hallo investors,
habe dieses posting im raging-bull gefunden
gblx am freitag +17% am nasdaq

bitte um meinungen

Spoke to my friend who is a broker in NYC...

He said GBLX is one everyone`s buy list for Tuesday. Many investors did not see the news till after today`s close. He said that the revenue increases forseen by GBLX should insure at least 3 - 4 back to back blowout quarters. Breaking 52-week high of $61 should really not be too great of a problem from here. Short term target (4 - 6 weeks) in $68 - $72. This could be what QCOM was in 1999. Global Crossing is a world wide service provider and its infrastructure is just now coming to full completion. Believ it when I say GBLX could go over $100.00 in 12-months. This is a long term, core holding. Very exciting day and exceptionally strong close.

I`m looking for $36 - $36 1/2 at open and a quick test of $29.00 by 10:00 am. We may settle in the $37 - $38 range for a few house but we will again have a strong close on Tuesday. The economic numbers today were great for the market and a fall rally is building. The summer rally did not occur but CNBC is talking about Nasdaq 5000 again this fall. It should be fun watching GBLX climb. I cannot wait for the action on Tuesday.

[DonMandolin]

Ist hier alles eingeschlafen?
Oder gibt es noch Longs mit Meinungen. Mich würde interessieren, wo ihr den Boden seht.

Don Mandolin

[Gruno]

Hier mal ein Posting aus einem amerikanischen Board.Stellt die finanzielle Lage von GX ganz gut dar.



GX Financial Analysis PART 1

GX Fans, I have spent some time the last couple of days looking into more of the details concerning GX’s financial strength and liquidity. For
the most part, I have used the December 31, 2000 Form 10-K. This of course represents the most recent year end financial information. I have
also spent some time reading and analyzing the June 30, 2001 Form 10-Q which has some good information, although not as detailed as the
Form 10-K.

I will provide some of my thoughts and conclusions shortly, but just to quickly summarize for those who might not want to read the entire post,
I really don’t see much of a financial liquidity issue. Sure, it would be nice if they were free cash flow positive TODAY, and it would be nice if
they didn’t have $6 billion in debt before the preferred shares, and it would be nice if the economy wasn’t a concern. Still, given all that, in
looking at the detailed numbers and cash flows, I really don’t see much of a problem.

As I start to list out my perception of the facts and reach my various conclusions, I would love to have some CONSTRUCTIVE criticism and
questions. We are smarter as a group than as individuals. However, I sure do hope I don’t get a bunch of personal attacks because you either
disagree with my facts or my conclusions. Let’s try to avoid that if possible. Believe me, I am a big boy and can handle whatever is dished out. I
am just concerned that I, as well as others, “will just take our sharpened pencils and go elsewhere” and none of us will be any better off.

Financial Summary

At 12/31/00, GX had approximately $6.3 billion of outstanding Senior Debt and about $3.2 billion of outstanding Preferred Shares. (I am
ignoring the short term $1 billion outstanding as that has been paid off with the Citizen’s proceeds.) This situation is little changed as of June
30, 2001. This is a large chunk of change, don’t get me wrong.

However, the really good news about the Senior Debt is virtually none is due for at least several years. Only a couple hundred million IN
TOTAL is due from 2001 thru 2003. Not until 2004 does a decent size chunk come due ($1.6 billion). Only $400 hundred million is due in
2005 and then the rest is due after 2005, up thru 2009. So what does this mean? Well, it means that given all the whaling and crying and
gnashing of teeth by the analysts in recent months about GX’s impending bankruptcy, it seems that basically ALL THEY HAVE TO PAY from
a fixed debt perspective is literally a few hundred million over the next couple years. That is really chump change for GX, and I can’t really see
any scenario where they would struggle to meet those obligations. Of course they still need to continue to pay their interest annually, and that
will likely be in the $500 million to $700 million range annually being conservative. Still, the sum of those two amounts over the next three
years simply do not represent a significant liquidity issue. In my financial opinion, it is barely a bump in the road given the size of GX.

On the Preferred Share side, the story is quite similar. GX will have to pay dividends each year in the range of about $200 million to $300
million (and they have the option to pay some of those dividends in additional preferred shares and not cash, if they are cash tight.) The
principal obligations aren’t required to be paid off for many years, as early as 2004 at the company’s option or as long as 2008 or 2009 in
some circumstances. Again, this financial structure gives GX a tremendous amount of latitude.

As many of you know, GX is not forecasting to be “free cash flow positive” until the end of 2002 (I think this is correct, if not, someone
advise.) My understanding of “free cash flow positive” is that GX will be able to fund all obligations, disbursements, outflows, etc. without
having to borrow anything. Right now, they are operationally cash flow positive, and have been for each of the years ending 1998, 1999 and
2000, and were operationally cash flow positive for the six months ended June 2001. That is a very important point to understand.
Operationally, they are cash flow positive. Many companies at this stage are far from operationally cash flow positive. They are not yet “free
cash flow positive” because they are borrowing lots of money to fund their network. But as we all know, that network is now complete, so their
capital expenditures are projected to drop substantially in 2002 and beyond. At the beginning of 2001, GX was projecting capex at $5 billion. In
the 2Q conference call, GX was projecting capex at less than $4.5 billion. The primary reason for the drop was due to the on or below budget
completion of their network and the favorable pricing they have been receiving in this slowing market. Some predict that actual capex for 2001
will be quite close to $4 billion, for a whopping $1 billion savings from just 12 months earlier. (Remember, that $1 billion just from 2001 capex
savings would be enough to pay ALL interest, ALL Senior Debt obligations, and ALL Preferred Share dividends for 2002. So right there, 2002
is covered with previously expected 2001 disbursements. I think that is very impressive.) GX has not yet commented on 2002 capex yet,
although expectations are that it will be significantly reduced from 2000 and 2001 activity. Some estimates I have seen are in the $2 billion to
$2.5 billion range. I am not sure what the exact number will be. But what I am very confident of is the fact that since the network has been fully
complete, these expenditures will be very flexible. It’s one thing when you have to buy the pipe to lay the last 10% of the network. That must be
done and the expenditure really can’t be debated. It’s quite another to have to decide if we should spend $300 million in this new market or
$200 million in that new market, or should we take advantage of some great pricing, etc. etc. etc. These expenditures are debatable, and if GX is
in a cash crunch, it would be quite easy to simply defer these expenditures until cash flows improve. That is why I really foresee little problem
for GX’s liquidity for the next couple years. Not only do they NOT have a lot of fixed payments required until 2004, they also have a lot of
flexibility in deferring cash outflows if needed. My company is going thru the very same concept. We are experiencing some slowness with the
economy, so we are planning on reducing our projected capex expenditures by 30% or so in 2002 to free up extra cash. This isn’t going to hurt
us in the short run, and we will make it up where needed in the long run. GX can and will do the same thing.

Conclusions/Other Thoughts

I am going to wrap this up with some conclusions and other comments, and then hopefully we will get some good discussions on the
agreements and disagreements with this analysis.

1) I really don’t believe GX has much to worry about in the next couple years related to liquidity. The economy does concern me, but I am
confident that over the next 6 to 18 months things will improve considerably. I don’t foresee any reason why GX can’t patiently wait out that
timeframe.
2) GX’s current debt structure offers them tremendous flexibility, in that most of the debt isn’t due for quite some time. They have plenty of
time to get their system fully cranking and to wait out any economic issues. The industry GX servers certainly isn’t going away (and continues
to grow quickly), and neither is GX.
3) 2001 YTD is better than 2000 YTD. Their balance sheet has improved (primarily the current ratio) and cash flows from operations have
improved. Revenues and adjusted EBITDA has improved. Things are getting better. It is true that GX tried to temper expectations a little for the
balance of the year, but they are still projecting solid improvement over 2000. My analysis is primarily based on year end 2000 activity, and the
improving 2001 results YTD versus 2000 only make the picture more clearer.
4) The Citizen’s sale was much better than expected. Their net proceeds after taxes and the paydown of the short term debt was much better
than expected, by hundreds of millions of dollars if my memory serves. That has only helped their liquidity.
5) Their 2001 capex has dropped significantly from previous expectations, which will be a HUGE help in 2002 and 2003 liquidity. Remember
that GX has projected cash and available liquidity in the $1.7 to $2.0 billion at year end 2001. That is a lot of money, and should easily carry
them thru 2002 even before the SIGNIFICANT reduction in 2002 capex versus 2001 and 2000.
6) GX also factored (sold) some receivables in June 2001 which freed up some extra cash.

I haven’t even begun to talk about the exciting promise of GX’s business plan. That is another very exciting piece of the GX puzzle. If GX even
comes close to executing their business plan, all this hogwash about liquidity will be long gone, and the GX longs will be very happy. However,
I am even more convinced than ever before that GX does not have a liquidity issue. These prices today are tremendous long term buying
opportunities. For those of us who haven’t been buying, we will regret it in a few years.

[DonMandolin]

Wisst ihr, dass das Short interest (Zahl leerverkaufter Aktien) per Mitte August 01 an der NYSE im Monatsvergleich um 2,3% auf 5,92 Mrd. Titel gestiegen ist ?

Die drittgrösste Leerposition bestand in Global Crossing!

Ist das ermutigend oder ein negatives Zeichen?
Ich denke, wenn nur ein Teil davon glattgestellt wird oder glattgestellt werden muss, kann das GX signifikant bewegen.

DonMandolin

[Gruno]

Nochmal ein Beitrag von dem gleichen Autor wie oben.

GX Fans
I decided to look at the GX financials from a different viewpoint to hopefully deny or confirm Smartguy`s
comments about their impending filing for bankruptcy. He chose not to support his thesis of reduced
revenues and likely further reductions in revenue guidance will lead to an impending bankruptcy filing. I
decided to try to look at that exact scenario and see what we can come up with.
For the six months ended June 01, GX has reported "adjusted recurring EBITDA" of $913 million. (This is
the key financial metric and explained why a little later.) They submitted a forecast of adjusted recurring
EBITDA of $1.6 billion to $2.0 billion during the 2Q conference call, and then recently affirmed those
numbers in the recent press release. Thus, it seems as though GX is pretty confident that they will be in that
range. Since they have already recognized $913 million for the first six months, they only need about $700
million for the last six months to hit the minimum of $1.6 billion, and they need $1.1 billion to hit the high
end of the target. Since they cleared $472 million in the 2Q alone, I don`t think it is much of a stretch to think
they will hit $1.8 billion for the year, or the mid point of their estimate. At the halfway point, they are on
track for $1.85 billion.
So, my first assumption is that GX will hit $1.8 billion for 2001. GX management has already indicated that
they will end the year with cash and liquidity of $1.7 billion to $2.1 billion. So, my second assumption is
that they will end 2001 with $1.9 billion in cash and liquidity.
Now, given those two assumptions, which seem reasonable and fairly conservative as we are using the mid
points of the ranges given, and GX hasn`t missed a range yet on their SHORT TERM predictions, let`s pick a
downside scenario for 2002. Not a worst case scenario, as I don`t want to get that negative and nor do I think
GX will hit a worse case scenario. But let`s pick a downside scenario for 2002 adjusted recurring EBITDA,
and see if that downside scenario could lead to a bankruptcy filing.
I think a down side scenario of adjusted recurring EBITDA is $1.5 billion. That would represent a $300
million drop, or nearly 20%, from projected 2001 actual. I think that is fairly significant given that GX has
demonstrated growth EVERY YEAR and their most recent news release indicated that they are experiencing
"...continued growing demand...". I would think it is close to a layup that GX will at least show 2002 results
similar to 2001 (I actually expect a higher number but we are trying to show a downside scenario here.) GX
hasn`t yet given guidance to this number and it will be very telling when they do. But I think a projection of
nearly a 20% drop from 2001 to 2002 is pretty aggressive for a downside scenario.
Adjusted recurring EBITDA is the key financial metric here because this metric basically tells you how much
cash GX has generated from operations PRIOR to having to have to pay down principal, interest, preferred
dividends and CAPEX. (If GX can`t meet these obligations, this is how they get forced into bankruptcy.) I
believe that 2002 principal is only $92 million per the 10-K filing. I am estimating preferred dividend
payments in 2002 at $250 million, and I am estimating 2002 interest at $600 million. Those numbers may be
off by a little, but they should be pretty close. Thus, the sum of those three represents about $1 billion
(rounded up a little).
Thus, if they generate $1.5 billion in recurring adjusted EBITDA, and they have to pay out about a $1 billion
for debt service, that only leaves $500 million for CAPEX. That of course isn`t much. However, we have the
remaining $1.9 billion in cash and liquidity (borrowing capacity) still available. So, I think even in a pretty
downside scenario, they can make it for 2002 without too much difficulty. Now, if 2003 doesn`t pick up
nicely, and they have two back to back poor years, then things get much dicier in late 2003/early 2004. They
have a large principal payment due in 2004, and they will need to be generating pretty significant recurring
adjusted EBITDA by then to meet this obligation.
So, my conclusion? Yes, GX could see some trouble in the next couple years if they have back to back
downside years in 2002 and 2003. However, I think the chances of that are fairly remote, and I like making
investments in companies where upside looks to be tremendous and downside seems "remote".
My opinion. Would love to hear some critiques.
Thanks.
Bob aka TheCPACommish

[DonMandolin]

Bob sounds pretty optimistic.

Leider verstehe ich seine Ueberlegung im Downsideszenario
nicht ganz. Basierend auf dem ermittelten EBITDA von 1,5
Mrd. verbleiben nach Abzug des Schuldendienstes rund 500
Mio für die jährlichen Investitionen. Das sollte doch
genügen, soviel ich weiss, ist das Glasfasernetz doch
beendet.

Gruno, kannst du mir bitte den Link zu diesem Board hier
reinstellen? Danke.

[Gruno]

@ Don

http://boards.fool.com/Messages.asp?bid=104135

Bob postet unter rfnf2933.

Sehr interessante Diskussionen und IMO alles wichtige was man über GX wissen sollte.


Gruno

[DonMandolin]

Danke, geh mich dort gleich etwas umsehen.

[Gruno]

Meine Herren,das sieht aber nicht gut aus was da bei GX läuft.
Frage mich ob ich meine GX halten soll oder noch verkaufen soll?
Die nächsten Zahlen werden wahrscheinlich miserabel und wenn
GX nicht aufzeigen kann das die Investionen in den Netzaufbau
drastisch zurückgehen dann steht wohl der BK auf der Tagesordnung.
Andererseits könnte ein zurückgewinnen des Auftrags vom Ver-
teidigungsministerium in der momentanen Lage ein Signal sein und
ein böses Erwachen für die Shorties bedeuten.GX hatte am 15.9.01
ein Short Interest von ca.115Mio Aktien,das sind fast 10 Handels-
tage.Aber hier wird auch die Konkurrenz von GX alles geben um an
diesen prestigeträchtigen Auftrag dranzukommen.Hatte vor diesem
Hintergrund überlegt meine GX in Ericsson zu tauschen.Hat hier
jemand eine Meinung dazu?Mein Einstiegskurs bei GX liegt so
bei 6,5$.


Danke

[eaglemen]

Also ich verstehe nicht das zu diesen Kursen noch verkauft wird,viele sind doch bei 6€ und mehr eingestiegen.Es wird schon noch eine Erholung kommen.
Mfg

[MainMan]

Wer weiß denn schon was zum DoD (Pentagon) Auftrag?

Ist die neue Aussschreibung schon erfolgt???

In den U.S.-Bords habe ich nix finden können.

[eaglemen]

Ne MainMan leider nicht,aber heute schaut wenigstens der Kurs mal besser aus.Hoffen wir mal das es so weiter geht.
Mfg

[eaglemen]

Nachtrag
Schau mal wie die im Amiland anzieht und das Volumen steigt rasant an,könnte langsam zum Rebount ansetzen.

[eaglemen]

Und schon wieder abwärts,diese Aktie bringt mich echt zur Verzweiflung.

[Kostolany4]

Global Crossing said third-quarter
results will fall far short of projections
because of a sharp decline in wholesale
access to the company`s fiber optic
cables, which connect major cities in
Asia, Europe and North America.

The carrier now expects to post cash
revenue of $1.2 billion and earnings
before interest, taxes, depreciation and
amortization of "significantly less than
$100 million."

Before the warning, Wall Street had
been expecting cash revenue of around
$1.6 billion and "ebitda," or operating
cash flow, of nearly $400 million.

At least one brokerage, Deutsche Banc
Alex. Brown, immediately cut its rating
on Global Crossing`s (GX: news, chart,
profile) stock, which closed at $2.09 on
Wednesday. Shares have sunk more
than 93 percent in the past year.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?source=blq/yh…



Die ganze Branche sucht sehr mühsam einen Boden. Mehr als Ansätze hierzu sind
nicht vorhanden. Alle sind hoch verschuldet,was die Kursfantasie IMHO stark beeinträchtigt.

Ich würde mich bei dieser Branche derzeit nicht engagieren wollen.

[Final Fantasy]

Eaglemen,


es wurde empfohlen GX zu meiden !!!

Bankrott a la Exodus ????

[Final Fantasy]

Eaglemen,

Es wurde empfohlen GX zu meiden !!!


Bankrott a la Exodus ????

[VolkerBitzer]

comdirect 04/10/01

Global Crossing: Fusion mit Asia Global Crossing?
Der US-Telekomdienstleister Global Crossing Ltd. und seine Asien-Tochter Asia Global Crossing Ltd. führen derzeit erste Gespräche über eine mögliche Fusion, so die Unternehmen. Der anvisierte Zusammenschluss würde allerdings auch Entlassungen mit sich bringen.


Parallel hierzu meldete Global Crossing, dass die Ergebnisse im dritten Quartal die Erwartungen voraussichtlich nicht erfüllen werden. Zudem übernimmt John Legere, President und CEO von Asia Global Crossing, das Amt des CEO bei Global Crossing mit sofortiger Wirkung. Er folgt somit Thomas Casey.


Außerdem meldete Global Crossing, dass man beabsichtigt, seine Geschäftsbereiche Global Marine Systems und IPC zu veräußern.


Die Titel beider Unternehmen müssen momentan herbe Verluste hinnehmen.Die Aktie von Global Crossing bricht aktuell um 37,80 Prozent auf 1,30 Dollar ein. Das Papier von Asia Global Crossing gibt um 26,94 Prozent auf 1,60 Dollar nach.

[eaglemen]

40% halte ich aber denn doch für etwas übertrieben.

[VolkerBitzer]

@Adlermann

Wenn ich mir den Chart der vergangenen Monate ansehe, scheint mir der heutige Kursrutsch nur Teil eines langen Prozesses des Dahinwegetierens zu sein.

So traurig es ist: DAS WAR`S.

[Final Fantasy]

Ein trauriges Ende, Eaglemen


Teco Energy to Replace Global Crossing in S&P 500

NEW YORK -- Standard & Poor`s said Teco Energy Inc. will replace Global Crossing Ltd. in the S&P 500 Index after the close of trading Oct. 9.
Standard & Poor`s said Global Crossing (GX), a Hamilton, Bermuda, fiber-optic network and services provider, is being removed for lack of representation.

In 4 p.m. EDT trading Thursday on the New York Stock Exchange, Teco Energy ( TE) was at $27.02, down $1.23, or 4.4%. Global Crossing shares ended 4 p.m. trading at $1.07, down $1.02, or 49%.

Philip Morris Cos. (MO), maker of Marlboro cigarettes, Kraft Foods and Miller beer, will replace Global Crossing in the S&P 100 Index, Standard & Poor`s said.




Dazu kommen Schulden über Schulden, Prozess gegen Tyco Int. und 0,00IQ Managment (Exodus-Deal). Was nutzen dann 2,4 Milliarde Cash wenn Banken anfangen Kredite zu kündigen? Ist zwar noch nicht alles verloren, aber zu 95% sehe ich GX als Pleite


Euro-Aktien sind doch deutlich günstiger!!!

[eaglemen]

Wäre ich wohl besser gestern noch raus(mit 50%-),denn so wie es aussieht machen die heute wieder 40%-.Unfassbar,mein grösster Verlust dieses Jahr.

[VolkerBitzer]

Willkommen unter den Pennystocks, Global Crossing. Das wird wohl eine sehr harte Landung...

[MainMan]

DAS WAR´S...
Den Eindruck habe ich leider auch. Vor kurzem hatte ich auch an die Vision geglaubt (Kursziel 16 Euro !?!),
aber Fact ist:

/Die Zahlen wurden noch in 8/01 bestätigt und brechen angeblich erst seit kurzem so ein....
/GX wird nicht mehr im S+P 100 und 500 gelistet (ab 9.10), d.h, die weitere Entwicklung interessiert keine Sau bzw.
irgendeinen Fond.
/ob die Nachfrage nach Netzwerkkapazität ab 2003 so groß sein wird? Bei einer Rezession fraglich
/ 2,4 Mrd. Cash bei weiterhin lfd. Investitionen und geringen Einnahmen können auch schneller als 12 Monate verschwinden

Fazit für mich: ein paar Tausend Mark Lehrgeld gezahlt und hoffentlich -endlich- daraus gelernt: Werte, die an einem
Tag mehr als 20 % verlieren, gehören abgestoßen!

[eaglemen]

Meint ihr es gibt wenigstens mal techn. eine Erholung?Bei fast 80%- wäre das doch mal möglich.(hoff,hoff)
Mfg
PS@ Mainman Wieviele Stücke hattest du bei welchem Einstand?

[VolkerBitzer]

Der Wert taugt nur noch zum Zocken. Klar gibt`s viele Trading-Möglichkeiten - aber als ernsthaftes Investment kannst Du das Thema vergessen.

[ass3000]

Hallo,

Es wird eine gewaltige Gegenbewegung kommen, die Fondmanager
die den S&P100 nachbilden haben die letzten Tage den Wert
rausgeschmissen, das müßte es gewesen sein.
Die Shorties werden sich jetzt eindecken müssen, da sind
schnell ein paar 100% drin.
Das sind die Chancen die die Börse nicht oft bietet.

[AM General]

!

Dieser Beitrag wurde vom System automatisch gesperrt. Bei Fragen wenden Sie sich bitte an [e-mail]

[ulfer]

Hallo AM General-Schlauberger!

Du wiederholst dich, beantworte lieber meine Frage und
verschon` uns mit alten Kamellen ...

ulfer