Was ist mit RATL (Rational Software) los?!? - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[Shareholdersnightmare]

In den letzten zwei Tagen hat der Titel, gegen den allgemeinen Aufwärtstrend, speziell auch in dem Sektor, etwas mehr an Boden verloren (jeweils so um die 5%, manchmal mehr)...
Gab es irgendeine Meldung?
Ein Downgrade?
Weiß irgendjemand was?

Thx in advance

[Nullinger]

Folgends hab ich bei Finance-Online gefunden:

Rational - Akkumukieren (Nice*Letter)
Rational Software sei unangefochtener Marktführer unter den Herstellern für Softwareentwicklungswerkzeugen.

Man biete Lösungen an, die die Softwareentwicklung erleichtern, standardisieren und nach Möglichkeit automatisieren. Ende März 2000 habe das kalifornische Unternehmen Rational Software rund 600.000 Lizenzen an ca. 40.000 Kunden weltweit für seine Softwarelösungen vergeben.

Kultstatus habe Rational vor allem wegen geschickter Schachzüge und der Spitzentechnologie. Im April 97 übernahm man z.B. den Konkurrenten Pure Atria und vervollständigte so das Produktportfolio. Die Marktführerschaft sicherte sich Rational mit der UML (Unified Modeling Language), welche heute Industriestandard sei.

Kein Konkurrent, darunter auch IBM, Microsoft oder Sun, offeriere eine derart lückenlose Produktpalette wie Rational.

Ergänzend pflege Rational Langzeitpartnerschaften mit oben genannten Konkurrenten, welche den Produkten enorme Standfestigkeit verleihen sollen.

Für 2001 erwarte man Umsatzsteigerungen um ca. 40% auf 800 Mio USD. Die Gewinnschätzung beliefe sich auf 0,68 USD pro Aktie, was einem Wachstum von rund 50% entspräche.

Nach Meinung der Analysten habe die Rational-Aktie weiterhin phänomenale Aussichten. Da auch die Charttechnik stimmt stufen die Analysten die Aktie mit Akkumulieren ein.


Gruß an alle !
Nulli

[Wuju]

@Rationalfans

Freitag 15.12Uhr: CS First Boston lobt Rational Software und vergibt STRONG BUY mit Kursziel 69$!!!
Viel Spass beim Geldverdienen!

Euer Wuju!

[Nullinger]

Kursziel 69$ ??? Die waren doch schon deutlich über 69$.

N.

[Broker99]

Negative Nachrichten gibt es nicht!
Aus meiner sicht ist RATL ein Basisinvestment. Und der Chart kennt eigentlich nur eine Richtung...
Also dabei bleiben!

[Wuju]

@ Broker99

So is es! Habe Rational seit Feb. und bin absolut von dieser Firma überzeugt. Werde sie auch so schnell nicht mehr her geben, vor allem weil ich sie bald steuerfrei habe. Zudem wird es nächstes Jahr die ersten Zinssenkungen in den USA geben weil das Softlanding der amerikanischen Wirtschaft geglückt ist. Das wird den Techs zusätzlichen Auftrieb geben.
Der Crash 2000= die Chance des Jahrzehnts!

Gruss Wuju, denn Angst? Braucht doch kein Mensch!

[Shareholdersnightmare]

@Broker99

Was meinst Du mit "der Chart kennt eigentlich nur eine Richtung"?!?

Momentan scheint dies wohl leider die falsche zu sein!

Nach den allgemein recht starken Kursverlusten der letzten Tage, im speziellen Gestern (Nas unter 3.000), hellt sich das Bild heute ein bißchen auf...
Futures sind heute gut im Plus: NSDQ100 DEC00 2903.00 +7550 und ein bullisher Doji Star für eine kleine Zwischenerholung scheint sich auszubilden. So ziemlich alle Werte sind vorbörslich schon gut im Plus (ORCL + 4,54%, CMRC +5,30% etc...) - da sollte man doch meinen, daß RATL auch im Plus wäre?!?

Aber Fehlanzeige:

RATL vorbörslich -2,50% auf $43,75
und das waren eben noch fast -4% bei einem größeren Einzelumsatz (5.500St.)

Im Chart deutlich zu erkennen:

Wir sind gerade genau an der 200-Tage Linie. Diese sollte meiner Meinung nach möglichst nicht auch noch nach unten durchbrochen werden...sonst erstmal weiterer freier Fall?!?



Versteht mich bitte nicht falsch - ich bin selbst investiert und sehr an steigenden Notierungen interessiert, allerdings sieht der Kursverlauf momentan recht kritisch aus, von einem möglicherweise drohenden Nasdaq-Crash auf 2.500 Punkte oder darunter ganz zu schweigen (auch wenn es erstmal nochmal nach oben geht - z.B. bis 3.300 ist die Gefahr nicht gebannt)...

Einzig von den Indikatoren wird die derzeitige Lage etwas aufgehellt:
Fast Stoch. generiert Kaufsignal im überverkauften Bereich.
Slow Stoch. ist ebenfalls kurz davor.
RSI ist gänzlich überverkauft.

Bitte um Meinungen und Anregungen...


Stay long and strong

[Shareholdersnightmare]

Hochbewerteter Mitbewerber ORCL jetzt schon +9% gleich +10%% vorbörslich bei hohen Umsätzen und RATL immer noch leicht mit knapp 1% im Minus!

Was ist da los?!?

Futures noch mehr (fett) im Plus - ich hoffe immernoch für den RATL-Chart bzw. den GD-200 (und unser Geld), daß es heute deutlich nach oben geht!

Ich glaube heute erleben wir eine kleine aber heftige Bear-Market-Rally nach den herben Verlusten der vergangenen Tage...

NSDQ100 DEC00 2922.50 +9500


Stay long and strong!

[Shareholdersnightmare]

November 13, 2000

RATIONAL SOFTWARE CORP (RATL)

Quarterly Report (SEC form 10-Q)

-- Management`s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations

Overview

The statements contained in Management`s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations include "forward looking" statements within the meaning of Sections 27A of the Securities Act of 1993 and 21E of the Securities and Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, including statements about international revenue, and liquidity and capital resources, and are subject to the safe harbor created by those sections. The actual future results of the Company could differ materially from those projected in the forward looking statements. For a discussion of certain factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected by the forward looking information see "Factors That May Affect Future Results," at the end of this Item 2.


The Company`s revenue is derived from product license fees and charges for services, including technical consulting, training, and customer support. In accordance with generally accepted accounting principles, the Company generally recognizes software license revenues when a customer purchase order has been received and accepted, the software product has been shipped, there are no uncertainties surrounding product acceptance, the fees are fixed and determinable, and collection is considered probable. Revenue from consulting and training is recognized when earned. The Company`s license agreements generally do not provide a right of return, and reserves are maintained for potential credit losses, of which historically there have been only immaterial amounts.



Comparative Analysis of Operating Results for the Three- and Six- Months Ended September 30, 2000



Total revenue for both the three- and six- month periods ended September 30, 2000 increased 46% from the comparable prior year periods.


Net product revenue for the three- and six- month periods ended September 30, 2000 increased 39% and 38%, respectively from the comparable prior year periods. Consulting and support revenue for both the three- and six- month periods ended September 30, 2000 increased 58% from the comparable prior year periods. The overall increase reflects continued strong customer acceptance across the majority of the Company`s products and services. The increase in consulting and support revenue is a result of growing demand for the Company`s consulting services and continued strong sales and renewals of customer support arrangements.


International revenue from product sales and consulting and customer support accounted for 43% and 40%, respectively of total revenue for the three- and six- month periods ended September 30, 2000, compared to 42% for both the comparable prior year periods. The Company expects international sales to continue to account for a major portion of total revenue in future periods, although the percentage of international revenues could fluctuate from period to period due to economic or other factors in international regions. The Company`s international sales are principally priced in local currencies. The Company enters into short- term forward currency contracts to hedge against the impact of foreign currency exchange rate fluctuations on balance sheet exposures denominated in currencies other than the functional currency of the Company or its subsidiaries. The total amount of these contracts is approximately offset by the underlying assets and liabilities denominated in non-functional currencies and such contracts are carried at fair market value. The associated gains and losses were not material to the Company`s results of operations in any period presented. See "Factors That May Affect Future Results: Our international operations expose us to greater management, collections, currency, intellectual property, regulatory, and other risks."


Cost of product revenue consists principally of materials, packaging and freight, amortization of developed technology and royalties. Cost of product revenue for the three- and six- month periods ended September 30, 2000 increased 50% and 29%, respectively from the comparable prior year periods. These costs represented 8% and 7%, respectively of total product revenue for the three- and six- month periods ended September 30, 2000, as compared to 7% and 8%, respectively for the comparable prior year periods. The increase in cost of product revenue correlates to the growth of product revenue.


Cost of consulting and support revenue consists principally of personnel costs for training, consulting and customer support. Cost of consulting and support revenue for the three- and six- month periods ended September 30, 2000 increased 53% and 54%, respectively from the comparable prior year periods. These costs represented 26% of total consulting and support revenue for both the three- and six- month periods ended September 30, 2000, as compared to 26% for both the comparable prior year periods. The increase in period over period costs of consulting and support is primarily a result of increased personnel costs necessary to service the growing demand for support, consulting, and education and correlates to the increase in consulting and support revenue.


Total expenditures for research and development increased 98% and 84%, respectively, for the three- and six- month periods ended September 30, 2000 from the comparable prior year periods. These costs represented 24% of total revenue for both the three- and six- month periods ended September 30, 2000 compared to 18% and 19%, respectively, for the comparable prior year periods. The increase in expenditures for research and development is due primarily to Catapulse Inc. related product development. The Catapulse research and development costs were $11.5 million and $18.1 million, respectively for the three- and six- month periods ended September 30, 2000. Catapulse is an Internet venture in which Rational invested $50.0 million in December, 1999. See "Factors That May Affect Future Results: Catapulse, an Internet company in which our founders have a management role and substantial interest, could divert the attention of our management away from our business and affairs, creating potential conflicts of interest."


Sales and marketing expenses increased 53% and 49% for the three- and six- month periods ended September 30, 2000 from the comparable prior year periods. These costs represented 42% of total revenue for both the three- and six- month periods ended September 30, 2000 compared to 40% and 41%, respectively, for the same periods last year. The increase in expenditures for sales and marketing is due to personnel costs associated with additional sales capacity, costs associated with marketing programs to raise Company visibility and sales and marketing costs incurred by Catapulse.


General and administrative expense increased 46% and 39%, respectively, for the three- and six- month periods ended September 30, 2000 from the comparable prior year periods. These costs represented 8% of total revenue for both the three- and six- month periods ended September 30, 2000 as compared to 8% for both the comparable prior year periods. The period over period increase in general and administrative expense is due primarily to additional amortization of goodwill related to the January, 2000 acquisition of ObjecTime Limited.


Other income, net consists primarily of interest income, interest expense and gains and losses due to fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates. Other income has fluctuated as a result of the amount of cash available for investment in interest-bearing instruments and from fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates. Other income, net increased $7,102,000 and $10,553,000, respectively, for the three- and six- month periods ended September 30, 2000 from the comparable prior year periods. The current year increase is due primarily to increased interest earnings on higher cash balances, offset by interest expense on convertible debt.


The provision for income taxes for the three- and six- month periods ended September 30, 2000 is based on the estimated annual effective tax rate applied to the profit before income taxes and includes federal, state and foreign income taxes. The effective tax rates for fiscal 2001 and 2000 differ from the federal statutory rate primarily as a result of permanently invested international income subject to a lower overall tax rate, investment in tax exempt securities, and research credits. The effective tax rate for fiscal 2001 increased from fiscal 2000 as a result of decreased investment in tax exempt securities and a greater proportion of international income subject to higher overall rates.

Minority Interest


Catapulse incurred $17.6 million and $24.2 million, respectively, of operating expenses and earned $1.0 million and $2.0 million, respectively, of interest income on cash balances for the three- and six-month periods ended September 30, 2000. Minority interest, net of tax, for the three- and six- month periods ended September 30, 2000 was approximately $5.7 million and $7.7 million.


Liquidity and Capital Resources at September 30, 2000


As of September 30, 2000, the Company had cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments of $1.02 billion and working capital of $896.6 million. Net cash provided by operating activities for the six months ended September 30, 2000 was composed primarily of net income plus noncash charges for depreciation and amortization, a decrease in accounts receivable and an increase in accrued employee benefits and other accrued expenses, taxes payable and deferred revenue, offset by an increase in prepaid expense and other assets, and the change in minority interest. Net cash used by investing activities resulted primarily from an increase in short-term investments and an increase in capital expenditures. Net cash provided in financing activities resulted primarily from the issuance of common stock under the Employee Stock Purchase Plan and the exercise of employee stock options.

The Company believes that expected cash flow from operations combined with existing cash and cash equivalents and short-term investments will be sufficient to meet its cash requirements for the foreseeable future.



Factors That May Affect Future Results

Significant unanticipated fluctuations in our quarterly revenues and operating results may cause us not to meet securities analysts` or investors` expectations and may result in a decline in the price of our Common Stock.




Our net revenues and operating results are difficult to predict and may fluctuate significantly from quarter to quarter. If our revenues, operating results, earnings, or future projections are below the levels expected by securities analysts, our stock price is likely to decline.


Factors that may cause quarterly fluctuations in our operating results include:




-the discretionary nature of our customers` purchase and budget cycles;


-difficulty predicting the size and timing of customer orders;


-long sales cycles;


-seasonal variations in operating results;


-introduction or enhancement of our products or our competitors` products;


-changes in our pricing policies or the pricing policies of our competitors;


-an increase in our operating costs;


-whether we are able to expand our sales and marketing programs;


-the mix of our products and services sold;


-the level of sales incentives for our direct sales force;


-the mix of sales channels through which our products and services are sold;


-the mix of our domestic and international sales;


-an increase in the level of our product returns;


-fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates;


-costs associated with acquisitions; and


-global economic conditions.


In addition, the timing of our product revenues is difficult to predict because our sales cycles vary substantially from product to product and customer to customer. We base our operating expenses on our expectations regarding future revenue levels. As a result, if total revenues for a particular quarter are below our expectations, we could not proportionately reduce operating expenses for that quarter. Therefore, a revenue shortfall would have a disproportionate effect on our operating results for that quarter. In addition, because our service revenues are largely correlated with our license revenues, a decline in license revenues could also cause a decline in our service revenues in the same quarter or subsequent quarters.


As a result of these and other factors, our operating results are subject to significant variation from quarter to quarter, and we believe that period-to-period comparisons of our results of operations are not necessarily useful. If our operating results are below investors` or securities analysts` expectations, the price of our Common Stock could decline significantly.



If market acceptance of our sophisticated software development tools fails to grow adequately, our business may suffer.




Our future growth and financial performance will depend in part on broad market acceptance of off-the-shelf products that address critical elements of the software development process. Currently, the number of software developers using our products is relatively small compared with the number of developers using more traditional technology and products, internally developed tools, or manual approaches. Potential customers may be unwilling to make the significant capital investment needed to purchase our products and retrain their software developers to build software using our products rather than traditional techniques. Many of our customers have purchased only small quantities of our products, and these or new customers may decide not to broadly implement or purchase additional units of our products.



If industry standards relating to our business do not gain general acceptance, we may be unable to continue to develop and market our products and our business may suffer.




Our future growth and financial performance depends on the development of industry standards that facilitate the adoption of component-based development, as well as enhance our ability to play a leading role in the establishment of those standards. For example, we developed the Unified Modeling Language for visual modeling, which was adopted by the Object Management Group, or OMG, a software industry consortium, for inclusion in its object analysis and design facility specification. The official sanction in the future of a competing standard by the OMG or the promulgation of a competing standard by one or more major platform vendors could harm our marketing and sales efforts and, in turn, our business.



If we do not develop and enhance new and existing products to keep pace with technological, market, and industry changes, our revenues may decline.




The industry for tools automating software application development and management is characterized by rapid technological advances, changes in customer requirements, and frequent new product introductions and enhancements. If we fail to anticipate or respond adequately to technology developments, industry standards, or practices and customer requirements, or if we experience any significant delays in product development, introduction, or integration, our products may become obsolete or unmarketable, our ability to compete may be impaired, and our revenues may decline. We must respond rapidly to developments related to Internet and intranet applications, hardware platforms, operating systems, and programming languages. These developments will require us to make substantial product-development investments.


In addition, rapid growth of, interest in, and use of Internet and intranet environments is a recent and emerging phenomenon. Our success may depend, in part, on the compatibility of our products with Internet and intranet applications. We may fail to effectively adapt our products for use in Internet or intranet environments, or to produce competitive Internet and intranet applications.



If we do not effectively compete with new and existing competitors, our revenues and operating margins will decline.




The industry for tools that automate software development and management is extremely competitive and rapidly changing. We expect competition to intensify in the future. We believe our continued success will become increasingly dependent on our ability to:




-support multiple platforms, including Microsoft Windows and Windows NT, IBM, commercial UNIX, and Linux;


-use the latest technologies to support Web-based development of business-critical applications;


-develop and market a broader line of products for programming languages such as C++, Visual Studio.NET, Java, and Java Beans; and


-continually support the rapidly changing standards and technologies used in the development of Web-based applications as well as off-the-shelf products.


We face intense competition for each of our products, generally from both Windows and UNIX vendors. Because individual product sales often lead to a broader customer relationship, each of our products must be able to successfully compete with numerous competitors` offerings. Many of our competitors or potential competitors are much larger than we are and may have significantly more resources and more experience. Moreover, many of our strategic partners compete with each other and this may adversely impact our relationship with an individual partner or a number of partners.



Catapulse, an Internet company in which our founders have a management role and substantial interest, could divert the attention of our management away from our business and affairs, creating potential conflicts of interest.




In 1999, we made a $50,000,000 investment in the Series A Preferred Stock of Catapulse, an internet company founded by Paul Levy and Mike Devlin. As of September 30, 2000, after taking into account additional investments by third parties in Catapulse, our Series A Preferred Stock represented approximately 37% of the voting power of the outstanding capital stock of this entity. Paul Levy serves as its Chief Executive Officer and Mike Devlin serves as the Vice-Chairman of the board of directors. Catapulse`s board of directors is made up of five directors. Rational has the right to designate two of the members of its board of directors. As of the date hereof, four of its directors also serve on our board of directors. Paul Levy and Mike Devlin continue to serve in their roles as our Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer, respectively. Catapulse is a business-to-business application service provider that will focus on developing a portal to meet the needs of the global community of software professionals. Catapulse also intends to develop an electronic marketplace for products and services relating to software development and intends to develop and deploy a hosted development service for Internet software development. During the quarter, Rational and Catapulse have entered into a strategic business relationship. Rational will be contracted to perform certain development work to optimize Rational products for the Catapulse environment. As Catapulse recognizes revenue from its customers, Rational will receive fees from Catapulse for the use of Rational technology. This strategic relationship could give rise to conflicts of interest involving the two companies and the founders in the future. In addition, Catapulse could divert the attention of Paul Levy and Mike Devlin away from the business and affairs of Rational.




If we are unable to manage our growth, our business will suffer.




We have experienced rapid growth in recent years. This growth has placed a significant strain on our financial, operational, management, marketing, and sales systems and resources. If we are unable to effectively manage growth, our business, competitive position, results of operations, and financial condition could suffer.


To achieve and manage continued growth, we must continue to expand and upgrade our information-technology infrastructure and its scalability, including improvements to various operations, financial, and management information systems, and expand, train, and manage our work force. We may not be successful in implementing these initiatives effectively and in a timely fashion.



Our international operations expose us to greater management, collections, currency, intellectual property, regulatory, and other risks.




International sales accounted for approximately 41% of our revenues in fiscal 2000, 40% in 1999, 34% in 1998 and 40% for the six months ended September 30, 2000. We expect that international sales will continue to account for a significant portion of our revenues in future periods. Our business would be harmed if our international operations experienced a material downturn. In addition, international sales are subject to inherent risks, including:


-unexpected changes in regulatory requirements and tariffs;


-unexpected changes in global economic conditions;


-difficulties in staffing and managing foreign operations;


-longer payment cycles;


-greater difficulty in accounts receivable collection;


-potentially adverse tax consequences;


-price controls or other restrictions on foreign currency;


-difficulties in obtaining export and import licenses;


-costs of localizing products for some markets;


-lack of acceptance of localized products in international markets; and


-the effects of high local wage scales and other expenses.


Our international sales are generally transacted through our international sales subsidiaries. The revenues generated by these subsidiaries, as well as their local expenses, are generally denominated in local currencies. Accordingly, the functional currency of each international sales subsidiary is the local currency. We have engaged in limited hedging activities to protect us against losses arising from remeasuring assets and liabilities denominated in currencies other than the functional currency of the related subsidiary. We are also exposed to foreign exchange rate fluctuations as the financial results of international subsidiaries are translated into U.S. dollars in consolidation. As exchange rates vary, these results, when translated, may vary from expectations and adversely impact our overall expected profitability. We currently do not hedge against this exposure. Fluctuations in foreign currencies could harm our financial condition and operating results.




We are subject to risks associated with the European monetary conversion.




In January 1999, the new ``Euro`` currency was introduced in certain European countries that are part of the European Monetary Union, or EMU. During 2002, all EMU countries are expected to begin operating with the Euro as their single currency. A significant amount of uncertainty exists as to the effect the Euro will have on the marketplace generally and, additionally, all of the final rules and regulations have not yet been defined and finalized by the European Commission with regard to the Euro currency. We are currently assessing the effect the introduction of the Euro will have on internal accounting systems and the sales of products. We are not aware of any material operational issues or costs associated with preparing internal systems for the Euro. However, we do utilize third-party vendor equipment and software products that may or may not be EMU-compliant. The failure of any critical components to operate properly after introduction of the Euro may harm our business or results of operations or require additional costs to remedy these problems.



If we lose key personnel or cannot hire enough qualified personnel, our ability to manage our business, develop new products, and increase our revenues will suffer.




We believe that the hiring and retaining of qualified individuals at all levels in our organization will be essential to our ability to sustain and manage growth successfully. Competition for highly qualified technical personnel is intense and we may not be successful in attracting and retaining the necessary personnel, which may limit the rate at which we can develop products and generate sales. We will be particularly dependent on the efforts and abilities of our senior management personnel. The departure of any of our senior management members or other key personnel could harm our business. Merger activities can be accompanied or followed by the departure of key personnel, which can compound the difficulty of integrating the operations of the parties to the business combination.



If we fail to maintain and expand our distribution channels, our business will suffer.




We currently distribute our products primarily through field sales personnel teamed with highly trained technical support personnel as well as through our telesales organizations, our Web site, and indirectly through channels such as value-added resellers and distributors. Our ability to achieve revenue growth in the future will depend in large part on our success in expanding our direct sales force and in maintaining a high level of technical consulting, training, and customer support.



We depend on strategic relationships and business alliances for continued growth of our business.




Our development, marketing, and distribution strategies rely increasingly on our ability to form long-term strategic relationships with major software and hardware vendors, many of whom are substantially larger than Rational. These business relationships often consist of cooperative marketing programs, joint customer seminars, lead referrals, or joint development projects. Although certain aspects of some of these relationships are contractual in nature, many important aspects of these relationships depend on the continued cooperation of each party with us. Merger activity, such as the acquisition of ObjecTime Ltd., may disrupt these relationships or activities, and some companies may reassess the value of their relationship with us as a result of this merger activity. Divergence in strategy or change in focus by or competitive product offerings by any of these companies may interfere with our ability to develop, market, sell, or support our products, which in turn could harm our business. In addition, one or more of these companies may use the information they gain from their relationship with us to develop or market competing products.



Our products could contain software defects that could reduce our revenues and make it more difficult for us to achieve market acceptance of our products.




Software products as complex as those sold by us often contain undetected errors, or ``bugs,`` or performance problems. These defects are most frequently found during the period immediately following the introduction of new products or enhancements to existing products. Despite extensive product testing prior to introduction, our products have in the past contained software errors that were discovered after commercial introduction. Errors or performance problems may also be discovered in the future. Any future software defects discovered after shipment of our products could result in loss of revenues or delays in market acceptance, which could harm our business. Further, because we rely on our own products in connection with the development of our software, these errors may make it more difficult to sell our products in the future.



If we fail to adequately protect our intellectual property rights, competitors may use our technology and trademarks, which could weaken our competitive position, reduce our revenues, and increase our costs.




We rely on a combination of copyright, trademark, patent, and trade-secret laws, employee and third-party nondisclosure agreements, and other arrangements to protect our proprietary rights. Despite these precautions, it may be possible for unauthorized third parties to copy our products or obtain and use information that we regard as proprietary to create products that compete against ours. In addition, some license provisions protecting against unauthorized use, copying, transfer, and disclosure of our licensed programs may be unenforceable under the laws of certain jurisdictions and foreign countries.


In addition, the laws of some countries do not protect proprietary rights to the same extent as do the laws of the United States. To the extent that we increase our international activities, our exposure to unauthorized copying and use of our products and proprietary information will increase.


The scope of United States patent protection in the software industry is not well-defined and will evolve as the United States Patent and Trademark Office grants additional patents. Because patent applications in the United States are not publicly disclosed until the patent is issued, applications may have been filed that would relate to our products.



We rely on software licensed from third parties that is used in our products.




We also rely on some software that we license from third parties, including software that is integrated with internally developed software and used in our products to perform key functions. These third-party software licenses may not be available to us on commercially reasonable terms or at all. Further, the software may not be appropriately supported, maintained, or enhanced by the licensors. The loss of licenses to or the inability to support, maintain, and enhance any of this software could result in increased costs or in delays or reductions in our product shipments until equivalent software could be developed, identified, licensed, and integrated.



Third parties could assert that our software products and services infringe on their intellectual property rights, which could expose us to increased costs and litigation.




We expect that we will be increasingly subject to infringement claims as the number of products and competitors grows and the functionality of products in different industry segments overlaps. Third parties may assert infringement claims against us in the future and their claims may or may not be successful. We could incur substantial costs in defending ourselves and our customers against their claims. Parties making their claims may be able to obtain injunctive or other equitable relief that could effectively block our ability to sell our products in the United States and abroad and could result in an award of substantial damages against us. In the event of a claim of infringement, we may be required to obtain one or more licenses from third parties. We cannot be sure that we can obtain necessary licenses from third parties at a reasonable cost or at all. Defense of any lawsuit or failure to obtain any required license could delay shipment of our products and increase our costs.



Promotional product versions may adversely impact our actual product sales.




Our marketing strategy relies in part on making elements of our technology available for no charge or at a very low price, either directly or by incorporating these elements into products offered by third parties, such as Microsoft, with whom we have strategic alliances. This strategy is designed to expose our products to a broader customer base than to our historical customer base and to encourage potential customers to purchase an upgrade or other higher-priced product from us. We may not be able to introduce enhancements to our full-price products or versions of our products with intermediate functionality at a rate necessary to adequately differentiate them from the promotional versions, particularly in cases where our partners are distributing versions of our products with other desirable features, which could reduce sales of our products.



If we cannot successfully integrate our past and future acquisitions and achieve intended financial or strategic benefits, our revenues may decline and our expenses increase.




We have acquired a number of businesses, technologies, and products, most recently in January 2000. If we fail to achieve the intended financial or strategic benefits of past and future acquisitions, our operating results will suffer. Acquisitions entail numerous risks, including:




-difficulty with the assimilation of acquired operations and products;


-failure to achieve targeted synergies;


-inability to retain key employees of the acquired companies;


-loss of key business relationships of the acquired company; and


-diversion of the attention of our management team.


In addition, if we undertake future acquisitions, we may issue dilutive securities, assume or incur additional debt obligations, incur large, one-time expenses, or acquire intangible assets that would result in significant future amortization expense. Any of these events could harm our business.


ITEM 3-Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures about Market Risk


The Company is exposed to market risk, including changes in currency exchange rates and interest rates. To manage the volatility relating to these exposures, the Company employs established policies and procedures to manage its exposure to changes in known or forecasted currency exchange rates and to fluctuations in interest rates. As of September 30, 2000 no significant changes concerning market risk have occurred since our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended March 31, 2000.


Foreign Currency Risk


A portion of the Company`s business is conducted in currencies other than the U.S. dollar. Changes in the value of major foreign currencies relative to the local or "functional" currency of the Company or its subsidiaries may adversely effect operating results. The Company enters into short-term forward foreign exchange contracts designed to mitigate the impact of foreign currency exchange rate fluctuations on balance sheet exposures denominated in currencies other than the "functional" currency. The total amount of these contracts is approximately offset by the underlying assets and liabilities denominated in nonfunctional currencies. Forward contracts are accounted for on a mark-to-market basis with realized and unrealized gains or losses recognized in the period in which they are incurred. Such contracts meet the criteria established in FAS 52 for hedge accounting treatment. As the Company finds it impractical to hedge all foreign currency exposures, the Company will continue to experience foreign currency gains and losses. The Company does not use derivative financial instruments for speculative trading purposes, nor does it hold or issue leveraged derivative financial instruments.


Interest Rate Risk


The Company`s exposure to market rate risk for changes in interest rates relates primarily to the Company`s investment portfolio. All the Company`s cash equivalents and short-term investments are classified as available-for-sale and are recorded at amounts that approximate fair value. Unrecognized gains and losses and declines in value judged to be other than temporary on available-for-sale securities are included in other income. The cost of securities sold is based on the specific identification method.


Quelle: http://biz.yahoo.com/e/001113/ratl.html

[Shareholdersnightmare]

RATL jetzt schon -9,33% auf $40,688!!!
ORCL wegen Analystenkonferenz im www und guten Kommentaren +10,60% auf $27,313?!?

Was ist da los???

[Wuju]

@ Shareholdersnightmare

Könntest Du die obige Nachricht übersetzen habe leider noch kein Übersetzungsprogramm. Würde auch gern wissen was da im Busch ist.

Gruss ein fassungsloser Wuju.

[Shareholdersnightmare]

@Wuju:

Das ist ein bißchen lang zum übersetzen, dafür habe ich leider momentan überhaupt keine Zeit...
Ich denke aber die Zahlen sind OK, der Ausblick auch.
Es gab allerdings tatsächlich ein Downgrade von einem Analystenhaus von "strong buy" auf "buy" - allerdings sind die nicht sehr glaubwürdig, bzw. wollen vielleicht einfach nochmal günstiger rein, das grenzt an Kursmanipulation!
Auch sind einige kritische Stimmen laut geworden, was das Geschäftsfeld von RATL an sich betrifft, allerdings glaube ich nicht, daß RATL selbst davon sehr betroffen ist. Das Wachstum scheint soweit planmäßig zu verlaufen!

Hier nochmal das downgrade mit Begründung von Wit Soundview (*würg*)::O

We are downgrading Rational Software from a strong buy to a buy rating.

Survey results suggest a dip in application development tool purchases - Recent
survey results, taken last month and being presented today at our conference,
point to a fall off in spending for the types of tools Rational sells.
* The portion of the e-commerce budget to be spent on Web application
development tools has decreased from 13% to 9%.
* The spending intention for application development tools had dropped from 45%
for 2000 to 30% for 2001.


Da steht einfach, daß sie denken, daß in der nächsten Zeit weniger
Software-Entwicklertools verkauft werden sollen.
Ich halte das für nicht sehr glaubwürdig, da selbige Analysten RATL schon einige Male downgegraded haben, immer kurz bevor die Aktie ausgebrochen ist.
Ich denke in einem positiveren Marktumfeld werden RATL bald nachziehen und ihr Kurs wird sich wieder nach oben anpassen (hoffe ich).

Dazu noch ein kurzer Teil Posting aus dem Yahoo Board:


Go to Yahoo upgrades/downgrades, put in "RATL"
for company history of upgrades/downgrades,
you will see SoundView in Jul98 downgraded
Rational, then a slew of upgrades happened
since then. SoundView has no credibility
(as well as FAC/Eqs. First Albany, who did
a downgrade than upgrade less than 60 days later! Very slimy) The credible analysts have remained firm- a steal at this current price.


Erholen sich gerade bei hohen Volumina schon wieder etwas von ihren Tiefstständen - ein gutes Zeichen!


Stay long and strong!!!

[Shareholdersnightmare]

Goldman Sachs sagt übrigens: Eine Übertreibung nach unten - Kaufgelegenheit!

SG Cowen bestärkt nochmal seine strong buy Einschätzung und sprechen von einem Kursziel von US$80-90:

By: SG Cowen
10/12/00 9:03:00 AM

Rational Software – Strong Buy Solid Q, with prospect of additional strength to come. FQ2 EPS were of $0.17 (vs. $0.10), $0.03 better than expected, on $188MM in sales (+46% Y/Y and +10% Q/Q). License upside was 2-3%, lighter than expected and vs. 5% last Q, surprising given seasonally strong Q. Mgt held back on license rev because svc rev was higher than expected at 42% vs. 40% historically. Maintenance rev strong due to strong renewals and suite strategy. Pipeline strong, mgt raising F2001 guidance to $805MM and $0.70 in rev and EPS from $790MM and $0.65. F2002 guidance of $1.1B and $0.80 unchanged. Mgt might eventually change top-line growth rate from 40% now to 45%, in line with that of past three Qs. Also announced very positive licensing relationship with Strong Buy Vignette for Content Studio product, a major product expected to ship in March. Expect several hundred million in rev over next several years; should benefit F2002. Real story for RATL is earnings leverage; our current assumption of only 20% operating margin way too conservative. Stock trading at 60x C2001 EPS, believe 80-90x achievable, which would support $80-90 price target. Mkt cap $12B. RATL $57/VIGN $27 - Syed


Stay long and strong!

[Wuju]

@ Shareholdersnightmare

Danke Dir für Deine zusammengefasst Übersetzung. Denke auch das die Behauptung das weniger Tools verkauft werden "könnten" einfach ein Witz ist. Da gab es vorher die ganze Zeit nicht eine negative Nachricht und jetzt auf einmal sowas. Der Chart war super, die Erwartungen bei den letzten Zahlen wurden übertroffen, was wollen die Analysten eigentlich noch? Hoffen wir also das die 200 Tagelinie hält und unser Baby sich wieder auf zu alten Highs macht.

Gruss Wuju!

[Wuju]

@ Shareholdersnightmare

akt. 40,25$ +0,94%
langsam, aber sicher(hoffentlich!)

[Shareholdersnightmare]

Ich halte echt nichts von WitSoundview - dafür haben die einfach zu wenig Glaubwürdingkeit meiner Meinung nach..

Heute wurde ein Riesen-Volumen für den Wert gehandelt (ca. 8,4Mio. Stücke) - und auch sehr(!) große Einzelvolumen - ich glaube, die "großen" decken sich gerade dankend auf dem Niveau ein...

Nachbörslich (ebenfalls hohe Einzel-/Umsätze):

US$41,375 (+$1,5 / +3,76%)


Don`t believe everything you hear! Just stay long and strong!!!


P.S.: WitSoundview die Hasenfüße -->

Das wünsche ich denen für ihr Depot -->

[mr007]

moin moin,
auf ein neues! heute nach börsenschluß gibt es die qz, desweiteren könnten gute zahlen von veritas für einen schub sorgen.
viel glück mr007

[mr007]

yeah, so macht börse wieder spaß, nachbörslich $19,50 + 11,15% und veritas spielt auch mit!
ciao mr007

[siscoinvestor]

hi mr007,
was hälst du eigentlich von MERQ Mercury Interactive?
RATL ist der Hauptkonkurrent von MERQ.
ME nach ist MERQ besser positioniert.
Bei RATL würde ich den Rebound bis auf knapp 20$, bei MERQ auf 50$ abwarten.
Oder bist du etwa schon ab und davon, nachdem du die Gewinne eingestreicht hast???

MfG siscoinvestor

[mr007]

moin,
ratl habe ich mit schnellem gewinn am fr. abgestoßen, merq ist momentan in usa hip und wird oft empfohlen (zu recht), dadurch sind sie leider ein bissel teuer geworden, sollten die kurse nochmal richtig purzeln würde ich mich für merq entscheiden!
mfg mr007

[siscoinvestor]

Hi,
Ich denke auch dass MERQ besser positioniert ist.
RAFL sollte mal bei den Wachstumsaussichten lieber aus dem Nasdaq100 entfernt werden. lol.
Steige bei Kursen um 50$ bei MERQ wahrscheinlich ein.
Hoffen wir, die Kurse nochmal zu sehen.
so long
keep cool
siscoinvestor

[siscoinvestor]

Friday April 27, 11:15 am Eastern Time


Press Release

SOURCE: Mercury Interactive Corporation
Vincent Rerolle Joins Mercury Interactive as Vice President Of Business Development

SUNNYVALE, Calif., April 27 /PRNewswire/ -- Mercury Interactive Corp. (Nasdaq: MERQ - news), the leading provider of enterprise testing and performance management solutions, today announced that Vincent Rerolle has joined the company as vice president, business development, reporting to COO Ken Klein. He will have direct responsibilities for major partnerships that will extend Mercury Interactive`s leadership in the testing arena and broaden the company`s footprint in application performance management and hosted services. Mr. Rerolle joins Mercury Interactive with over 15 years of management experience in the United States, France and Australia for companies including McKinsey & Co., Citadon, Bidcom, Vivendi and Sagem.

``Vincent`s track record of successfully creating and managing relationships with leading software providers and infrastructure players will help us expand and strengthen our strategic initiatives going forward,`` said Ken Klein, COO of Mercury Interactive. ``We are excited to have him on the Mercury Interactive team.``

``When corporations unveil business-critical applications in complex, ever-changing environments, such as the Web, they face increased costs and substantial risk if application performance is not up to par,`` said Vincent Rerolle, vice president of business development at Mercury Interactive. ``Mercury Interactive solutions allow companies to optimize application infrastructures, protect revenue streams and eliminate unnecessary infrastructure costs while preserving high performance applications.``

Mr. Rerolle most recently held the position of vice president for the collaborative commerce business unit of Citadon, where he was responsible for creating a new business line of services and lead negotiations with key technology and service providers. Prior to Citadon, he was vice president of strategy and business development at Bidcom and a senior manager at McKinsey & Co. Mr. Rerolle holds a B.S. degree in computer science, network communications and digital signal processing from E.N.S.T. and an M.B.A. degree from I.N.S.E.A.D., both in France.

Mercury Interactive Corporation

Mercury Interactive is the leading provider of enterprise testing and performance management solutions. The company`s automated software and managed services help companies deliver and maintain high-performance applications. Customers worldwide use Mercury Interactive solutions across their application and technology infrastructures to minimize hardware and operational expenses, protect revenue streams and enhance their competitive positions. Mercury Interactive was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Sunnyvale, Calif. The company has over 1400 employees with offices in more than 20 countries. Further information is available at www.mercuryinteractive.com or by phone at U.S. 408-822-5200.

NOTE: Mercury Interactive Corporation, Sunnyvale, Calif. Product and company names are used herein for identification purposes only, and may be trademarks of their respective companies.


cu
siscoinvestor