Morphosys die nächste Zeitbombe - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[cristo]

nach dem barrons artickel ist das die nächste zerstörung

mein KZ 50 euro

wie sind eure meinungen

auch die lion bio sind noch viel zu hoch...

[SmartCap]

Was schreiben die denn zu Morph ?

ich persönlich finde Morph diplomatisch gesagt sehr gut bezahlt.

SC

[schnellemark]

schleich Dich!!!!!! Was für ein Müll!!!! Sagenhafte Begründung!!!

[Plunger]

Was schreiben denn die Jungs von Barrons so?

[SmartCap]

@csisto: Wo kann man den Artikel im web lesen?

Danke

[eck64]

Hallo cristo
Morphosys wird in 2001 break even schaffen, nach konservativen Schätzungen. Da arbeiten die anderen Bios am NM immer noch an der Verlängerung ihrer Pipeline.
Der Kurs leidet im Moment doch eher an diesem legendären dausend Spruch.
Wir werdens sehen. Kauf halt nicht, wenns Dir nicht zusagt.
Good trades
eck64

[cristo]

Familiar Formula
Could the biotechs become the market`s next dot.coms?
By MICHAEL SHAOUL

Several times in recent weeks, biotechnology shares have remained strong despite
sustained selling throughout the rest of the tech sector. In fact, biotech
apparently is being viewed as a haven by some investors seeking holdings capable
of delivering high returns without excessive risk. The situation is intriguing

... and worrisome. Certainly, significant strides have been made in recent
months in drug discovery, bio-informatics and genomics. But while this sector
has unique qualities that may enable it to diverge from the rest of the market
in the short run, it doesn`t operate in total isolation over the longer term.
Since mid-1999, the biotechs have generated impressive gains and, even in the
face of the market`s recent volatility, a number of them remain at or near
all-time highs, while many of their brethren in other areas of the tech universe
have been battered.


Behind this might be a broader phenomenon: investors` inability to place
concrete value on the future returns of new and little-understood technologies.

This isn`t confined to biotechnology.


Indeed, to a great extent, the most recent stage of the bull market grew out of
the investing public`s failure to grasp immediately the huge potential value of
many technologies. This produced opportunities for those brave or wise enough to
buy tech stocks cheaply; they later enjoyed the eye-popping returns that made
the rest of us envious and eager to join in the fun.


Soon, the technologies themselves (the Internet, broadband, telecommunication
equipment and so on) became much better appreciated. Indeed, investors`
indifference was replaced by wild optimism, pushing up prices to surprising
heights. Arguably, however, even as they plunged into the stocks, investors
became no better at understanding the value of these technologies.


Accordingly the valuations accorded to many dot.coms, telecoms and other tech
issues exploded to levels that in retrospect seem unrealistic and that have now
unraveled.

Table: Fewer Favorites

Similarly, because biotechnology is especially complex, most investors long
ignored it. But once they turned their attention to this group, it took off
rapidly, fueled by biotech`s inherent and invaluable promises, such as producing
a cure for cancer and mapping the code of life. Undeniably, there have been
remarkable discoveries in recent months. Nevertheless, the economic value being
placed on the companies at the center of these achievements isn`t founded in
reality.



Worse yet, the group is being overvalued on a fundamental basis at a time when
its prospects, as viewed through the lens of technical analysis, is weakening.
The Amex Biotechnology Index recently broke through but failed to hold above the
high it reached last March. Its recent price of 722 is almost twice the low of
379 made last April. Although the index may seem robust, it`s suffered a
troubling reduction in breadth: Over the past three months, 10 of the BTK`s 17
components either were up by only a negligible amount or fell, while its three
highflyers -- Protein Design Labs, Vertex Pharmaceuticals and IDEC
Pharmaceuticals -- all jumped by over 50%.

Furthermore, two of the group`s stalwarts -- Biogen and Immunex -- are giving
off alarming technical signals. Biogen is more than 50% below its high and
recently hit a year-to-date low, breaking through a support level. Immunex is

also down significantly from its high above 83 and looks likely to test its
trend support in the mid-30s.


Both companies have established products. But their stocks have been hurt as
biotech investors shift out of older names and into new ones with either
non-existent or negligible earnings, but with promise perceived as enormous by
the public. Sound familiar? It`s precisely such circumstances that signaled the
Internet mania and the subsequent downturn in the broad tech-stock sector.

In sum, the biotech highflyers are dangerously exposed in a market that has seen
significant selloffs in sector after sector. For this reason, our firm recently
has reversed its previously bullish advice to clients that invest in this
sector. Smart investment is always a matter of matching risks to potential

rewards. So, riding the biotech darlings further could be dangerous. Sometimes,
it`s necessary to leave money on the table in order to keep some in your pocket.


MICHAEL SHAOUL is executive vice president of Oscar Gruss & Son, a New York
based broker-dealer.