Zur extremen Überbewertung des Dollars und zur Unausweichlichkeit des Goldanstiegs - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[golden-bear]

The "Advantages" Of A RESERVE Currency

If you are NOT an American, but a resident of ANY other nation in the world, please ask yourself this question. What do you think would have happened to the exchange value of your currency if the NET external debt of your nation had risen by 44% last year? Now, here`s another question to ask yourself. What do you think would have happened to the exchange value of your currency if your Central Bank had cut its controlling interest rates almost in HALF so far this year, the year AFTER your nation`s NET external debt increased by that 44%?

We`ll make it simple. Do you think your nation would still HAVE a currency?

Well, maybe it would, but we think that you will agree when we say that your currency would be in very sad shape indeed. Since you are NOT an American, your currency is NOT the world`s RESERVE currency, and is thus subject to all the trials and tribulations of rational valuation.

But the U.S. Dollar IS the world`s RESERVE currency. And because it still holds that position, it is not - YET - subject to any type of rational valuation at all.

As a prelude to what follows, let us state that in 1985, for the first time since before World War I, the United States became a NET external debtor. That means that foreigners held more U.S. assets than Americans held foreign assets. 1985 was sixteen years ago.

The U.S. Commerce Department has just (on June 28) announced a series of what should be extremely sobering facts. Last year, the NET external debt of the United States increased by 44.1%. Don`t forget, the U.S. has been building its NET external debt position for SIXTEEN years, and this increase took place over ONE year.

Here are the figures from the Commerce Department (T = $US Trillion)

1999: US holdings abroad: $7.21T -- Foreign holdings in US: $8.73T -- NET US debt: $1.52T
2000: US holdings abroad: $7.19T -- Foreign holdings in US: $9.38T -- NET US debt: $2.19T

In 2000 alone, the NET U.S. external debt increased from $1.52 Trillion to $2.19 Trillion, a rise of $670 Billion. A rise of $670 Billion from a base - in 1999 - of $1,520 Billion is an increase of 44.08% - IN ONE YEAR!

This trajectory of indebtedness is totally and absolutely UNSUSTAINABLE! It took 15 years (1985-1999) for the U.S. to increase its net external debt from $0 to $1.52 Trillion. That`s an average increase of just over $100 Billion per year. In 2000, the increase was $670 Billion - almost SEVEN TIMES the average for the previous fifteen years.

As you know, the U.S. has been adding to its net indebtedness this year. But the picture becomes even more astonishing when one considers what the Fed has been doing since January. It is pathetically obvious that the U.S. is now borrowing ALL of whatever "growth" it can eke out of its economy. Usually, investors like to get some kind of a "return" on their investments. But this year, the Fed has cut short-term U.S. rates almost in half, U.S. stock markets are all in the red, and corporate and Treasury debt paper is a wasteland.

The foreign debt of the U.S. is exploding, U.S. interest rates are imploding, U.S. markets are hanging by a thread. And what is the Dollar doing? IT IS RISING! On June 28, the U.S. Dollar index hit a 15-year high of 120.29. Economic history provides very few spectacles to equal this one.

Now, if you ARE an American, here`s a question for you. How long do you think that the Dollar can maintain its present lofty position in the face of what you have just read? Have you made any provision to protect yourself in the case that it can`t hang in mid air much longer?

As we have stated many times, both in these pages and in the pages of The Privateer, the ability of the U.S. economy to defy both financial prudence and economic rationality is based on the fact that the U.S. Dollar is the world`s SOLE reserve currency. Until the end of 1998, there was no other contender for this title. Now, with the advent of the Euro at the beginning of 1999, a currency specifically designed to create a "United States - Of Europe", there is.

How has the U.S. reacted to the birth of the Euro? In March 1999, through NATO, it instigated a (Balkans) WAR on European soil - the Euro fell. In the year between June 1999 and May 2000, the Fed INCREASED U.S. rates - the Euro fell. In late 2000, a U.S. Presidential election hung in the balance for over a month. The Euro stopped falling and recovered. In 2001, the Fed has been slashing U.S. rates while hurling increasingly strident demands at Europe that it inflate its currency to take some of the "strain" off the U.S. - the Euro fell again.

Now, according to the Wall Street Journal, a U.S. Treasury official has DEMANDED that Europe slash its rates and Japan begin to literally print money to "aid" in the efforts being made by the U.S. to "re-start global economic `growth`". Why is the U.S. demanding this? Because the U.S. economy is TOTALLY dependent on foreign investment to "grow". If the Europeans and the Japanese don`t inflate, there won`t be enough foreign capital available to lend to the U.S. so that it can "grow". The stakes in THIS game are now extreme

The essence of the whole situation is that the U.S. is playing a gigantic game of financial "chicken" with the rest of the world in general, and with Europe and Japan in particular. In essence, they are saying this: "We are too big to fail, and if we fail, we`ll take you all down with us".

Gold`s place in all this is what Gold`s place in all this has ALWAYS been. It is the alternative to a global "money" which is given "value" by fiat and which is given "acceptance" by the raw power of its purveyor - the United States. As long as physical Gold literally exists, it will act as the ultimate "brake" on the profligacy of debt-based financial systems.

What we face is simply a matter of facing facts, and of exercising patience. The present financial trajectory which the U.S. is on is absolutely UNSUSTAINABLE. It cannot last. Unless and/or until the Euro becomes a currency which is officially REDEEMABLE in Gold, there will be no other protection against a U.S. Dollar swan dive except Gold (and Silver). Right now, Gold forms 15% of the official reserves behind the Euro, but the Euro is NOT redeemable in Gold. The U.S. has long since declared Gold as financial public enemy NUMBER ONE. There is no official connection between the U.S. Dollar and Gold at all.

The U.S. is now in a position in which it has to hold Gold down "forever", or see its position as the purveyor of the world`s sole reserve currency come to an end. This will prove an impossible task, all that remains to be seen is how much MORE damage is done in the process.


von www.the-privateer.com

[golden-bear]

Über 280 x geöffnet und vermutlich also auch gelesen, aber kein einziger Kommentar!
Finde ich erstaunlich!
R.Deutsch hat es wenigstens ins JüKü-Board kopiert [wenngleich ohne zu schreiben, dass er es hier rauskopiert hat ;-) ] , wo es sogleich ein Echo fand.

[xnickel]

golden-bear,
meine Erklärung, (habe es auch angeklickt):
Man wird im Laufe der Jahre der vielen langen Texte (aus USA) müde, weil doch anschließend nie was passiert.
Die Fehlprognosen werden höchstens zahlreicher und schriller.
Wenn es dann noch in unbequemem english ist, na ja.

Was anderes ist eine persönl. interessierende Sache. Wie jetzt die SEP Indikatorengeschichte.
Falls es doch noch was mit Gold wird, dann handelt es sich hierbei um eine echte Chance es vorher zu erkennen. Das hat nichts mit den ewigen Wünschen, Träumen, Prognosen, Weltuntergängen usw. zu tun.
Wie gesagt, falls es überhaupt nochmal in absehbarer Zeit aufwärts geht, ist die Indikatorengeschichte ein nüchternes Kalkül.
Gruß
xn

[golden-bear]

A "Hissing" In The Dollar Bubble?

"But the U.S. Dollar IS the world`s RESERVE currency. And because it still holds that position, it is not - YET - subject to any type of rational valuation at all."
(Gold Last Week - June 29)

On June 28, an unnamed but "senior" Bush Administration official was quoted as unequivocally stating that the "strong Dollar policy" was intact. This official also came very close to DEMANDING that Europe start slashing interest rates and Japan start printing money. A few days later, Treasury Secretary O`Neill was quoted as saying that he had "asked everyone", but couldn`t find out which official had made these statements.

"Okay youse guys - who spilled the beans??"

Comical, isn`t it? What is even funnier is that the currency markets didn`t find it funny at all. June 28, when this anonymous official made his (or her?) comments was the day after the latest (-0.25%) rate cut. On that day, the $US Index exploded upwards by 1.61 points to hit a post-1986 high of 120.29. It was also the day when Gold completed a two-day swan dive which saw it fall from $US 276.20 to $US 270.00. The Bush Administration WANTS a strong Dollar. The Bush Administration GETS a strong Dollar.

And, of course, they also get a "weak" $US Gold price

This week, Treasury Secretary O`Neill prepared to head off to Rome for the G7 Finance Ministers meeting held on July 7. Mr O`Neill couldn`t find the official who had made the statement on June 28. But he did say that while he didn`t want to tell any other nation how to run their economy, he thought that Europe and Japan could do more to become the "locomotive" of world growth.

On July 5, The European Central Bank met and refused to lower their rates. Sweden, which is NOT a member of the EU, actually had the temerity to RAISE their rates by 0.25% from 4.0% to 4.25%. "Oh Yeah!" - said the currency markets. The $US Index reacted by rising 1.05 points to another new high of 121.21 points

Of course, while the Dollar was shooting UP on July 5, Gold was heading down - again in $US terms. As you can see on the chart above, the $US Gold price has retraced its gains and is once again down to the levels it reached in early June - after pulling back from its assault on the $US 300 level in late May.

On the very next day, Friday, July 6, the U.S. Dollar gave up ALL of its rise on the previous day, falling 1.06 points back to 120.15. On top of that, U.S. stock markets went into the tank, with the Dow falling 227 points to its lowest level since April 18. The stage is truly set for the G-7 meeting this weekend.

This week on U.S. stock markets, the Dow has lost 2.4%, the S&P 500 has lost 2.8%, and the Nasdaq has lost 7.2%. On top of that, the latest U.S. unemployment figures (for June) have come in at 4.5%. That`s only up 0.1% from May, but June non-farm payrolls contracted by 114,000 workers - the expectation was for 44,000.

The result on Wall Street can be seen in the figures above. The further result was that 23 of the 25 "primary dealers" on Wall Street who are routinely polled as to their predictions for future Fed actions expect the Fed to cut again (by another 0.25%) when the FOMC next meets on August 21.

"The U.S. is now in a position in which it has to hold Gold down "forever", or see its position as the purveyor of the world`s sole reserve currency come to an end. This will prove an impossible task, all that remains to be seen is how much MORE damage is done in the process."
(Gold Last Week - June 29)

How much more damage? Look at U.S. stock markets. Look at the inexorably rising level of U.S. unemployment. Look at the still profligate spending habits of Americans. Look at the credit card defaults and bankruptcies. Look at the increasingly strident demands from the U.S. that Europe and Asia get on board and INFLATE!

But most of all, look at the descent of "mainstream" economic and financial analysis in the U.S.. Remember, during the tech stock boom, when the bigger the LOSS a company reported, the bigger that company`s GAIN on their stock price? That phenomenon is now being repeated, but now, it is not Yahoo or Amazon which is booming, it is the U.S. Dollar. The worse the U.S. economy gets, the more the Fed cuts U.S. rates, the HIGHER the Dollar goes. And, just like the tech stocks, everyone believes that it is a mere matter of time before the U.S. economy rebounds and "validates" the PRESENT strength of the Dollar.

The stock market bubble is broken. The tech stock bubble has disintegrated. Only the Dollar bubble remains.

The difference, however, is not merely of degree. The ultimate refuge from the bursting of a bubble in any sector of a financial system is the currency itself. But when it is the CURRENCY which is in a bubble, there is NO escape within the financial system itself. The only "escape" is OUTSIDE the financial system. And that means, as it has always meant, REAL goods, saleable skills, and precious metals.

In short, it means SAVINGS. Ultimately, one can be absolutely CERTAIN that an economy and a financial system is fatally flawed and on the brink of serious implosion when both economic "orthodoxy" and political policy are united to discourage savings of any kind. In the U.S., it has almost reached the point where saving is considered "unpatriotic". What is needed, says everyone from the President on down, is more SPENDING!

It has been a long time since the challenge in investment markets was not how to make more, but how to keep what one already has. That is the challenge we are all now facing. For most of recorded history, the challenge was easily met. Hold the precious metals. The answer remains the same, but the challenge is not so easy to meet anymore. Gold, in contradiction to ALL tested and proven economic laws, is doing no more than holding its own. But that`s better than almost any other form of "savings" right now.

Is the big fall on the U.S. Dollar index on July 6, the beginning of the air coming out of the bubble? Impossible to know. Will the air come out of the Dollar bubble. Impossible to avoid. As we said last week, its a matter of time and patience. Gold in $US terms is down 2.56% so far this year. There are VERY few global investments which have done that well. Stay tuned.


von www.the-privateer.com

[golden-bear]

Truth Can Be MUCH Stranger Than Fiction

The Captain and his merry crew here aboard The Privateer do a lot of research. Gold This Week has to be produced every week. The Privateer itself has to be produced every two weeks. In the course of this research, we often come upon items which make us sit up and take notice. On rarer occasions, we stumble across something that could best be described as mind boggling. And, on VERY special occasions, we find an item that is truly mind blowing - to the extent that we don`t know whether to laugh or cry.

Usually, this dillemma is resolved in the form of an extended session of ROFL - Rolling On The Floor, helpless with laughter.

Such an item reared up and bit us on July 10. It was a statement made by U.S. Treasury Secretary Paul O`Neill. Actually, the statement was a repeat of one that he made to Wall Street executives back on June 19. We didn`t take that one too seriously though. One can say ANYTHING to "Wall Street executives".

But THIS time, Mr O`Neill made his remarks to the August U.S. Congress!

What Mr O`Neill said was this:
"We have no assets" - in the U.S. Social Security trust fund.

Two Democratic Congressmen immediately took Mr O`Neill to task. (This is not a direct quote): "Of course we do - it`s chock-a-block full of TREASURY BONDS!!"

True, said Mr O`Neill, but those aren`t REALLY real assets: "...because the Social Security trust fund does not consist of real economic assets, we are left to rely on the federal government`s future decisions to either raise taxes, reduce spending or increase borrowing from the public to finance fully Social Security`s promised benefits"

Great thundering horny toads! The Secretary of the U.S. Treasury does NOT consider the debt paper he is in charge of rolling off the presses as being REAL ASSETS!! Of course, you know, he`s right - but it is (how can we put this delicately) impolitic of him to say so - especially to a bunch of politicians sequestered in the Nation`s Capitol.

U.S. Treasury bonds - and other Treasury paper of shorter maturites - just so happen to be the "reserves" behind every currency in the world. They are the "assets" that every Central Banker in the world spends time in the basement gloating over. Remember King Midas letting Gold coins run through his fingers with glee. Imagine a modern Central Banker doing the same. The difference is that what our modern financial hero is wallowing gleefully in are TREASURY BONDS.

TREASURY BONDS are the ultimate "glue" which holds the present world financial system together. But Mr O`Neill has just dropped a megaton bombshell. He has said, in public, that they are not "REAL ASSETS"!

We don`t know which is funnier - the fact that Mr O`Neill would be silly enough to make such a statement or the fact that his statement has not (YET!) caused any consternation anywhere.

We can`t help but wonder, however, how Mr O`Neill`s fellow Treasurers will react to this startling statement when they all get together next weekend for the Genoa G-8 Heads of State Summit. Between them, they own literally TRILLIONS in Treasury debt, paper which Mr O`Neill has assured them are not really REAL assets at all. Do you suppose any of them will have the temerity to ask Mr O`Neill what he DOES consider to be a REAL ASSET?

No writer of "financial apocalypse" novels - like Paul Erdman - could come up with something so absurd. It takes "real life" to do that.

This week, Gold hardly moved - not only in $US terms but in terms of most major currencies. The exception was found in Latin America. Now it might be stretching things a bit to describe the Argentine and Brazilian currencies as "major", but Gold sure moved against them. There is a full blown financial CRISIS going on in South America right now. Argentinian overnight interest rates hit 300% on July 12. The Brazilian currency has been setting daily all time lows against the U.S. Dollar for a week.

As everyone who is anyone has diligently informed us, this is NOT a "crisis". Further, it bears no resemblance to the "Asian Crisis" of 1997-99. You may recall that when the "Asian Crisis" struck in July 1997, Americans ignored it entirely. President Clinton called it: "a glitch in the road". A year later, Russia defaulted and the entire financial house of cards almost blew away in the resulting winds.

No chance of that happening NOW! Argentinians, Brazilians, and many other citizens of Latin American nations are stampeding into U.S. Dollars and other U.S. "assets" - just like their Asian counterparts did at the start of THEIR crisis four years ago.

Some time ago, Alan Greenspan stated that there was no way he could define precisely what money was any more. He also said that there was certainly no way to know exactly how many U.S. Dollars were floating around out there. Now, Mr O`Neill has stated that Treasury bonds are NOT "assets".

It has been said: "Those whom the gods would destroy, they first make mad." We certainly don`t think that Mr O`Neill could be classed as certifiably "insane" - but with statements like this - he is definitely a few shovels short of a full load.

With this kind of thing now going on in public, it is merely a matter of time before someone/somewhere takes Mr Greenspan and/or Mr O`Neill seriously and acts accordingly. Yes, we know that lots of individuals are already acting accordingly - they are protecting themselves with Gold.

But when somebody in financial authority starts taking these two American gentlemen seriously - AND ACTS ACCORDINGLY - the jig will verily be UP! That won`t happen in the lead up to Genoa. It will happen AFTER Genoa. The only question remaining to be answered is - WHEN?

[golden-bear]

Hier ein Link zu eínem Artikel von Paul Kasriel "Adding to the Din of Dollar Bears"

http://www.northerntrust.com/library/econ_research/weekly/us…

[big_mac]

..... in dem artikel stehen ein paar sehr gute gründe um gold zu kaufen - und um den euro noch mehr als um den dollar zu fürchten. denn euroland steht um nichts besser da, ganz im gegenteil. speziell wenn spanische banker wegen argentinien und deutsche wegen osteuropa zu wim pilgern müssen.

[Ken_meyer]

Alles ist relativ und ich glaube, dass der EURO relativ
stark zum Dollar werden wird.

Hier ein grusliger Bericht über die GSEs( Freddie Mac und
Fannie Mae), der erste den ich darüber in den mainstream
Medien sehe. Wenn die Bubble im amerikanischen Immobiliensektor platzt, dann gilt für den Dollar
sozusagen Argentinien hoch drei..

http://www.economist.com/printedition/displayStory.cfm?Story…

[MMUNNA]

Dollar wird zum Euro noch stärker werden und der Euro wird in den nächsten zwei Jahren noch mehr an Wert gegenüber dem Dollar verlieren. Davon sind nicht nur Handelsleute überzeugt, die von Deutschland aus in den USA tätig sind, sondern auch ich. Hauptbegründung: Die Produkitvität in den USA ist auch langfristig gegenüber dem Euroraum viel höher. Der Euro wird duch die Weichwährungsländer wie Italien usw. verwässert, die Verschuldung im Euroraum durch die Eurostaaten nimmt laufend zu, auch in Deutschland. Wenn erst die am Krückstock gehenden Länder wie Polen zur EU kommen mit Aussicht auf Euromitgliedschaft, dann wird es noch schlimmer. Allein diese Aussichten(!) unterminieren den Euro bereits heute gewaltig.
Mein Prognose: Euro in Richtung 58 US-Cent!!

Nebenbei: Die Euroländer kriegen doch weder auf dem Arbeitsmarkt noch im Sozial- und Gesundheitsbereich oder im Steuerbereich die wirklich notwendigen Reformen hin; die USA handeln dagegen. Mit Schröder, Fischer und Co. wird es beispielsweise in Deutschland eher bergab als bergauf gehen.Leider! In den anderen EU-Ländern sieht es ähnlich trüb aus und von Vereinheitlichung des Steuer-, Arbeits- und Sozialrechts innerhalb der EU ist doch noch gar keine Rede! Wie soll das mit dem Euro gut gehen? Solange der deutsche Mittelständler noch Geld verdienen und Steuern für ganz Europa aufbrachte, hatte die EU noch eine Chance. Aber welcher Deutsche STeuerzahler strengt sich noch für andere an, ohne selbst davon etwas zu haben?)

Vielleicht gibt diese Entwicklung dem Gold noch einmal eine Chance. Aber ich befürchte, wir müssen noch Geduld haben.

[big_mac]

ich denke alle die mit ausgestrecktem finger auf amerika zeigen haben vergessen daß wir hier in euroland in einem ganz dünnen glashaus sitzen.

gehts mit amerika wieder bergauf wird der dollar steigen.
gehts weiter bergab wird euroland viel schlimmer leiden.

die einzige chance für den euro ist ein abgehen von der strong dollar policy. und das ist unwahrscheinlich, da die usa nicht vom export leben.

gold kann wieder kommen. die einzige alternative zum dollar.

[Dottore Lupo]

Cui bono???

Wir "wissen" alles um Gold,aber es hilft dem Preis auch nicht auf die Sprünge.

Erst wenn Gold hier wieder als Wert ansich promoted wird,geht es aufwärts.

Da ja alle glauben Ansprüche wie Renten...etc seien sicher.. ROFL

Der Blüm hatte mich immer schon als "Goebbels" der Kohlregierung fasziniert.

Den geistigen Durchfall dieses Kerls wollte aber niemand in Frage stellen.

Genauso unreflektiert murmeln Leute das Mantra immersteigender Aktienkurse bis zum

Tag der Wahrheit.

Es gibt 2 Dinge an den Märkten zu beachten.

Ist der Zins über 8-10 Prozent Bonds kaufen,keine Wirtschaft hält wegen des Zinseszins

dies aus und Zentralbanken fahren runter.

Andererseits ist doch jedes KGV, jenseits von 15 nicht begründbar und die Kurse müssen runter

oder die Gewinne steigen.

Und alles was aus dieser Range rausgeht ist spekulativer Wahnsinn.

Diesem Wahnsinn verfällt man nur zu gerne und zockt mit.

Denn die Märkte werden nur noch zum Zocken benutzt, auch in Gold.

Es wäre doch ein leichtes den Goldpreis mit den Buchverlusten z.B. der Telekom in die Höhe zu jagen.

cu DL

[Ken_meyer]

@big_mac

die Amis haben sich eine klassische Tulpenmanie
geleistet und diese Party muss bezahlt werden, da beisst
die Maus keinen Faden ab. Der Techno-Crash war ja
bloss Anfangsgetöse. Als nächstes kommt der Crash
auf dem Immo-Sektor, und der wird voraussichtlich
weitaus schmerzhafter ausfallen.
Noch wollen das die wenigsten wahr haben. Wer sich informieren will, welche Zeitbomben die Amis noch im
Keller habe, kann ja mal die regelmässigen
"Credit Bubble Bulletins" von Doug Noland lesen.

http://www.prudentbear.com/Comm%20Archive/commarchive.htm

Europa hingegen hat hingegen aufgrund seines etwas
höheren Sozialismus-Anteils seinen A...(sorry) erst gar
nicht hochgekriegt und das wird sich auf längere
Sicht als ein relativer Vorteil gegenüber den Amis
erweisen.

[big_mac]

@ken mayer

prudentbear lese ich auch regelmäßig. bin vor fast 2 jahren über i-tulip.com daraufgestoßen.

aber ich gehe nicht davon aus daß europa besser dasteht.
sicher nicht bei den technologie-aktien, da war die europäische blase viel ärger. und auch nicht im immobilienbereich - speziell unter einbeziehung der investitionen in osteuropa !!
wer auf den euro als alternative zum dollar setzt kommt vom regen unter die traufe. gold ist die alternative !
das problem ist nicht der dollar - es ist fiat currency generell !
die angeblich enorme unterbewertung des euro existiert nicht - der dollar war lange unterbewertet und ist jetzt knapp über kaufkraftparität. eine gewöhnliche schwankung.

mit deiner anmerkung bez. sozialismus in eu hast du absolut recht - ich würde es zwar eher bürokratie und vollkaskomentalität nennen - aber das ist kein vorteil !

p.s. sind dir in europa irgendwelche sites a la prudentbear bekannt ?

[Ken_meyer]

@big_mac

nee, leider nicht. Leiste mir augenblicklich den Luxus
den Richebächer newsletter( sitzt in Südfrankreich) zu abonnieren; der hat hat allerdings keine Website.