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ESS Technologies - ein immer noch unentdecktes Juwel - 500 Beiträge pro Seite



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Ich verfolge seit nahezu drei Jahren den Werdegang von ESS Technologies (und seit dem Spin-Off auch den von Vialta)... es ist beachtlich, wie ein Wert der zweiten Reihe so viel Freude machen kann :) - am Chart von ESS technologies lässt sich nahezu mit traumwandlerischer Sicherheit die jeweils weitere Kursentwicklung erkennen - und das, obwohl(oder gerade WEIL) keine!!! Zocker in diesem Wert sind ;) ...

Heute war wieder einmal ein besonders schöner Tag :) ... und der Kurs vor dem Spin-Off ist erstmalös wieder erreicht und sogar überschritten

Ein Blick auf den Chat lohnt sich - und ein Blick auf die Fundamentals ebenso ... und der Blick auf die Perspektiven erst recht :)

Ein Fan
Duffy2000 :laugh:
Danke für den Tip...
Ich sehe die Teile ständig in Rechnern eingebaut...
Den gleichen Fehler wie bei nVidia möchte ich nicht machen. Ich hätte nVidia schon vor 3 Jahren kaufen und dann liegen lassen sollen.
Hi Duffy2000,

was sagt der Chart? wie geht´s weiter mit ESS TECH ???

pilot111
Hallo Pilot111 :)

... tja, was sagt der Chart - ich denke, die heutige Kursentwicklung spricht für sich!! ;) ... +23,17% oder +3,73$ und damit neues 52-Wochen-Hoch.

Neu ist die Meldung von positiven Nachrichten zwischen den Quartalsberichten - bisher wurden immer um den 20.1./20.4./20.7./20.10. eines Jahres herum die Quartalszahlen genannt - regelmässig mit hervorragenden ex-post-Daten und mit überzeugenden Prognosen. Nun hat CEO Blair IM Quartal den positiven Akzent gesetzt.

Meines Erachtens rutscht ESS Tech so langsam in eine höhere Liga - gerade wenn man sich die mittelfristige Vergangenheit betrachtet, wird der Titel mehr und mehr in den Blickpunkt rücken (nebenbei bemerkt: das Spin-Off von Vialta [VLTA.OB] als "Natural-Dividende" entwickelt sich ebenfalls ordentlich) ...

Wenn in China (auch und wegen der Olympischen Spiele) der technische Fortschritt (speziell zur DVD) in Siebenmeilenstiefeln vorangetrieben wird, dann ist ESS Tech ganz dick dabei - also: ich bin MEHR als OPTIMISTISCH für ESS Tech. Was mich begeistert, ist, dass der Titel kein Modetitel ist, sondern dass er sich moderat, dafür aber kontinuierlich entwickelt. Trotz des Anstieges um rund 200% seit Mitte September 2001 erwarte ich keine nennenswerte Kurskorrektur - dazu sind die Rahmendaten einfach zu gut; im übrigen ist ESS Tech nach wie vor nicht teuer bezahlt

Jetzt führe ich mir erst einmal die kompletten Daten der heutigen Prognose zu Gemüte - eine Analyse, die Spass macht :)

Bis bald
Duffy2000
Hallo,

ein höchst(!!!) erfreuliches Ergebnis für Q4 und auch für 2001 ... und der Ausblick stimmt auch ... ich denke, 2002 wird ein gutes Jahr für ESS Technology ...

Den beiden Meinungen aus dem USA-Board kurz nach der Conference Call kann ich mich grundsätzlich nur anschließen - wobei ich den Kurs nicht mehr bei $ 15 sehe und für Ende 2002 nicht $ 30 , sondern eher $ 34 erwarte - wait and see :)

O-Text 1:

Blowout q4 with a capital B. Nothing could have been better. Now let us get to what matters, forward guidance. Now we know why the Chans were selling and why the chart has showed weakness of late. Guidance is downright awful. I have the same question that Peak had on the call: How do you sell 3.5 million units in q1 but only do 50%-70% of net income from 3q when you sold the same amount? Their answer is that VCD sales should be down from q3/q4 and gross margins should fall to 39% due to seasonal weakness. This is due to pressure on ASP`s and seasonal weakness. 38% is their gross margin outlook long term. I still don`t understand why they need a secondary. They have loads of cash but they claim they need cash to make acquisitions as not to get behind on technology? Whatever.

On the bright side of this, I would expect earnings and revenues at the high end of the ranges management provided. That would be $.14 for q1 and $.17 for q2. The primary reason I say this is that I believe management is being conservative and the #`s just don`t add up to what they are projecting. Revenues should be about $60 million for q1 and $66 for q2. ESST suffering the same bug GNSS is fighting with the Chinese new year according to management. 2 weeks without production is a killer. The second half of 2002 should be a surprise IMO. We should expect it to be seasonally strong like 2001. $.60 seems rational for the 2h of 2002. That would put us just below current consensus with $.91 for 2002. Short term ESS will take a hit no doubt. With market weakness, poor technicals, and poor short term guidance, $15 is probably in the cards. At $15, ESST is an add without a doubt but I don`t see much reason to step in at current prices. $30 is possible by year end 2002.

O-Text 2:

Fantastic Quarter....Revenue and earnings have beaten expectations and business remains strong.

The company has made solid traction in all areas of the DVD and VCD markets. They are citing growth out of India, Indonessia, Malaysia, and Brasil as well as China. The product offering including Vibratto, their Systems on a Chip Controller, The Indigo line are all very well positioned for growth. They have gained numerous design wins in the Japan and Korea markets. Channel inventories are reported to be low....considerably lower than Q4 last year. The company beleives it has the number one market share of all DVD chip suppliers and holds 60%-70% of the VCD market and has a clear strategic vision with respect to the emergence of Digital Home Entertainment Systems and their future growth potential.

In terms of the numbers....the balance sheet strengthed and EPS estimates will move higher from here......current consensus is in the $0.90 vicintity and EPS should move closer to $1.15-$1.20 for 2002 whith potential for 2003 EPS in the $1.50 to $2.00 range.

WOW

They are guiding for 11-14 cents for Q1....but this seems quite conservative given that inventories are quite low.....Scovel had an estimate of 9 cents for Q1. I expect them to be able to beat this initial guidance which seems conservative and come in closer to Q3 EPS levels. We are now looking at the following scenerio:

In terms of guidance for 2002 look for Q1 EPS to be the low for the year at $0.15-$0.20. From there we should be in the fantastic situation of sequential growth for each of the next 3 2002 quarters in tandem with upward pressure on gross margins based on the product mix shift towards more DVD unit sales and new product launches.

This leads to an earnings stream of:

Q1: $0.15-$0.20
Q2: $0.20-$0.25
Q3: $0.35-$0.40
Q4: $0.45-$0.50

As such I get a range of: $1.15 EPS to $1.35

I see no reason whatsoever to change my 2002 estimate of $1.20 EPS and again I`ll reiterate that the Street will move closer to it off this report.

I`ll maintain a price target of 30 times my estimate as an appropriate immediate term valuation or $36 per share.

Even a more conservative multiple of 25 times earnings and the low end of reasonable estimates values the shares immediately at $28. There is absolutley no justification for shares to trade any lower. This stock is on track to be a big winner in 2002.....with very aggresive valuations also possible if the comapny beats estimates again next quarter or raised guidance intra-quarter again of 35 times the higher end of the range or $47 per share. A price of $47 in 2002 is not unrealistic.....it`s not my mainstream scenerio but one which may well manifest if we get intra-quarter increases in guidance again, and strong earnings reports Q1 and Q2.....the market will get forward looking and price off the 2003 outlook by midyear. So very big picture I see fair value between $28-$47. With prices anywhere around here offering extreme value considering that ESST is the leader in the DVD controller field and has seeminglessly transitioned from a slower growth to a higher growth firm.

Guidance for 1st half of 2002 is down. That will weigh on the stock short term. Considerable upside exists to 2nd half of 2002 IMO. You could look at this as a buying opportunity now but I tend to believe you can buy more at a lower price. JMO.



Viel Spass weiterhin mit ESS Technologies ;)
Duffy2000
... nachbörslich in N.Y. um halb acht Ortszeit bei $ 19,60 - also um $ 0,31 zurückgenommen ... das sehe ich als kurzfristige Reaktion auf den vorsichtigeren Ausblick auf das 1.Hj. 2002 (die Erfahrung zeigt, dass ESS Technologies oftmals die eigenen Prognosen teilweise deutlich übertroffen hat) ... für mich ein Zeichen solider Planung ohne Euphorie :)

Duffy2000
Hallo :)

die $ 15 haben wir nicht mehr gesehen :) - und ich denke, das Thema hat sich fürs erste auch erledigt ... heute nun die Offerte von 4,8 Mio. Aktien à $ 19,38 - und (eigentlich ungewöhnlich für ein secondary offering) der Kurs steigt um gut 14% ... Grund für mich noch nicht eindeutig ersichtlich - Eindeckungen hätten auch vorher geschehen können ;)

... ich stell noch mal einige interessante Gedanken aus dem USA-Board hier rein - vor allem die Analyse von Peak lohnt sich - und seine Überlegungen zum Vergleich mit ZRAN ...

Beginn O-Zitat:
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ESST - incredible opportunityby: peak_007 Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy 01/25/02 12:07 amMsg: 14328 of 14454
Confusion has run rampant in terms of valuing this company....on both the retail and the institutional side. Here is the chain of events.....1) an already cheap stock increases guidance twice intra-quarter2) the stock trades down into earnings3) ESST produces a blowout quarter4) the stock trades down after earnings5) the forward P/E contracts to around 16 for an industry leader with bullet proof balance sheet in a ultra-high growth industry.WHAT WENT WRONG?/WHAT HAS CREATED THIS UNIQUE OPPORTUNITY?Here is my take. There is massive confusion on the retail side about the Chan`s reducing a 35% exposure to a 25% exposure in an orderly structured fashion. To gain perspective....after the all the insider selling that has been done the Chan`s still have an investment in ESS Technology of multiple 100`s of million. Second, since the major Street firms are placing the announced secondary offering they are not updating research despite two increases in guidance and a blowout quarter....and I fear that many of the institutional investors who are in ESST are not so adept at realizing in how much the 2002 and 2003 outlook for ESST has improved. Take for example the AG Edwards report. This is just plain garbage. I saw that it hit the first call wires very late in the day.....at least the analyst has the proper rating on ESST shares as he rates them: strong buy. He reiterated this rating and increased EPS estimates for 2002 from $0.69 to $0.76. The report was awful....it had no insight, discussion of any strategic issues, or talk of the product lines or technology. The analyst basically summarized the main points from the conference call and reiterating them....his report was useless.....I would recommend reading my post with all the rec`s for more detailed analysis. Lets scrutinize his increase from $0.69 to $0.76. It is awful....he increased his assumptions for Q1 and Q2 which was consistent with guidance and left his Q3 and Q4 EPS assumptions unchanged with no explanation as to why. This is Mickey Mouse in the first degree. Why because he is essentially assuming a 0% growth year for DVD. Take the low end of $0.25 cents ESST will earn based on guidance in H1 (in reality they will crush this but you`ll have to wait and be patient on this) add to it $0.20 which was earned in Q3 2001 and add another $0.35 which was earned in Q4 2001. You get a total of $0.80!Now how the hell does this bozo call himself an analyst in coming up with $0.79. Absurd. He is assuming that either Q3 or Q4 will show less earnings than the same quarter in 2001! Utter Bunk.
Re: ESST - incredible opportunity - 2by: peak_007 Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy 01/25/02 12:08 amMsg: 14329 of 14455
This is what we are dealing with....one Mickey Mouse analyst who can`t build a spreadsheet to forecast EPS...and a couple of other analysts who can`t update research because of fees for placing the secondary.....the higher the price of the shares the more fees they get for placing it......conflict of interest....as a result the retail side on this board focuses on the negative signal of the Chan`s not having enough $100`s of millions of dollars invested in the company and the institutional side at funds.....is soft....may not have even listened to the CC as evidenced by only 4 questions need some hand holding by the Street and all they get is a dolt from AG Edwards who can`t create a spreadsheet......so they sell instead of investigate.....$19....or 16 times forward 2002 Calendar Year earnings.I called GNSS to hit $60 from $20 in the spring of 2001. Thisissure: Your estimate of $1.20 is cool for this year...run the math again...and listen to the CC....and really think about what guidance of $0.25-$0.30 really means for H1 EPS. (PS it is good to have you back on board).But you are correct by late spring of 2002 I`ll be valuing ESST at a multiple of 2003 EPS which should be about at least a solid $1.60-$1.80 and my target will be $51. And don`t think there isn`t even more upside than this by year end 2002. All in all we are looking at potentially a very fast double and prices in the $40`s very supportable based upon only a modest increase in the outlook the company just discussed on the CC. I can`t wait to here the argument that $19 is a sell....that one should target $15 or $10 a share for I know I will find it absurd although I am certain there will be those on this board who will present it.Peak


Bottom Lineby: peak_007 Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy 01/24/02 11:49 amMsg: 14272 of 14455
Is just relax if you are investor.....If you are a daytrader put peak on ignore.....because my research is geared towards findind stocks that can have 100%+ years....and continue to perform well years into the future. I first went long ESST at $11....could have sold at $22....but the fundamentals have improved so much and so didn`t my price targets. I could really care less how the market reacts for just today. I`m happy that the underlying fundamentals have improved for ESST....valuation becomes even more attractive....and I have more visibility towards the strategic corporate vision of ESS and agree with it.It`s not rallying off the report which is a bit silly..... investors do not want to beleive that ESST will execute its strategy in 2002....or they just didn`t understand the conference call......to me all signs point to great execution in 2002. More important than todays trading is the fundamental improvements going on at the firm and the furthering of the strategic vision. I was thoroughly impressed with the conference call so I`m quite happy to be aggresively long a high growth, market leader in the semiconductor sector that is trading at prices cheaper than 70%-80% of the stocks on the market at 16 times 2002 earnings. WIth no debt and a stellar balance sheet I see 1-2 points of potential 2002 downside and 10-20 points of potential 2002 upside......to me its a good bet.....that market is out chasing other bullshit.....perhaps they are waiting for a street analyst to update EPS estimates and price targets (none have done so yet on first call) the market should just read peak though. This stock will ! be a big winner in 2002 from here. Peak



Zoran Results - Big Positive for ESSTby: peak_007 Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy 01/31/02 10:38 pmMsg: 14425 of 14449
Here is what I posted on the Zoran (ZRAN) board which is probably worth the read for serious ESST investors:http://messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=4687954&… &mid=7146http://messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=4687954&… &mid=7147In terms of ESST the conference call was simply an afirmation that ESST remains rather ridiculously valued where it currently trades:1) ZRAN guided for revenue growth of -16% to -20% for Q1. This is materially higher than the guidance that ESST provided....and confirms my suspicion that the market may be stronger than historical seasonal patterns would forecast it to be.....a huge anecdotal in favor of this argument is the lack of any inventory accumulation in the retail channel as compared to this time last year when there was inventory out there. An analyst even pressed ZRAN management to ask if the guidance was a result of Digital Camera market strength or the strngth of the overall DVD market.....since 80% of ZRAN revenues are from the DVD market management claimed that guidance was predicated upon the overall DVD market outlook. In short, this is more evidence that ESST management is being conservative. Furthermore.....ZRAN guided for 30%-35% revenue growth in 2002! Apllying an annual revenue growth estimate of 35% growth and 16% down for Q1 I came up with an ESST earnings stream of:$0.20, $0.25, $0.32, $0.46Or $1.22This gives me all the more conviction in my $1.10 to $1.25 range and furthermore the analysts were questioning ZRAN about upside in the industry above 35% growth....and ZRAN said...that could very well be the case.ESST was referenced at least three times as the other competitor (that had a tremendously strong quarter). Furthermore.....one analysts point blank asked ZRAN what is going on with Apex? When pushed.....ZRAN management admited that significant revenues are not modeled from Apex in 2002 but that ZRAN management was happy about the strategic relationship. ESST seems better positioned than ZRAN in emerging markets such as China and India and other markets with VCD. While ZRAN seems better positioned in Japan and at the higher end of the market. All in all this is a big positive for ESST as it is just more evidence of the ridiculousness of estimates for $0.76 cents which is the only estimate from an "analyst" since the blowout earnings report. Hold on tight all.....we are heading higher.....I reiterate: Prepare for a monster rally after the secondary is completed and the Street can update research. Trading lower than here would be absurd from a valuation standpoint.Peak


Zoran Guides Higher for 2002!by: peak_007 Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy 01/31/02 09:43 pmMsg: 7146 of 7185
Congrats Longs! I believe this is just the quarter that we were looking for. I have done some very thorough analysis of earnings and Zoran has GUIDED HIGHER BY 15-25% in 2002!First the conference call:Zoran mentioned strong growth around the world in the markets that they serve including Europe and South America, while singling out Brazil, South Africa, and India. The transition from Vaddis 4 to Vaddis 5 is going smoothly and will help maintain ASP`s as well as gross margins. They are not seeing a much competitive threat from larger players and are mainly going head to head with ESS Technologies. Market Share is on the rise and Zoran is expecting a decline in revenues of 16% to 20% based on seasonality in the markets they serve. They are positioned well to gain share from the captive market which produces its own controllers as industry trends move away this practice.....the Levy Gerzberg says he could see the captive market share falling from 30% to 20% in 2002. Japan is the location with the largest captive market and ZRAN is confident they have the #1 market share in Japan which bodes well. Guidance provided was for 38%-40% gross margins, a 10% operating profit model where operating profits are below 10% in H1 and above 10% in H2. Annual Revenues are expected to be 30% to 35% higher in 2002 versus 2001.....and furthermore when pressed....management believes they will also gain market share based on positioning in 2002 so if the overall DVD market can grow north of 35% Zoran will participate in the upside. These numbers seem conservative for a firm gaining market share....but later I will illustrate that even with a 35% growth assumption that guidance has been materially raised and the stock should be set rally throughout 2002. In terms of how this call relates to ESST it is also very positive for a couple of reasons.....one the guidance for revenues in Q1 is higher than what ESST provided, which suggests some conservatism on the part of ESST management....and when pressed they did disclosed that although happy with the strategic relationship with Apex that it not modeled to add significant percentages of revenues in 2002. Zoran seems a bit better positioned in the higher end of the DVD market $200 machines and up with ESST better positioned in China, India, and the emerging markets as they seem to be executing better in the sub $200 area as well as VCD......but of course there is lots of overlaps as both firms have products that cover the entire DVD market. I reiterate my view that there is ample room for both firms to grow robustly for years to come.....with ZRAN gaining supplemental growth from the Digital Camera market and ESST gaining supplemental growth from the MP3 player market.Cont......


Zoran Guides Higher for 2002 - Part 2by: peak_007 Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy 01/31/02 09:44 pmMsg: 7147 of 7185
In terms of the financials.....in terms of annual revenue guidance of $145M and Q1 guidance of about 30M I expect an earnings stream along the lines of:30M, 32M, 37M, 46Mwith 39% gross margins assumed and the 10% operating model for 2002 which the firm guided for I get to operating profits in the vicinity of 700K, 1.3M, 2.9M, 5.9MI assumed very modest growth in Interest Income.....based upon the higher balances generating more returns and the assumption that the company can but the cash to work benefiting EPS through an accretive acquisition or can simply start repurchasing shares which also benefits EPS growth.Based on this analysis I get to EPS of:$0.14, $0.17, $0.25, $0.38Or an annual earnings results around $0.95.Given the strong balance sheet and growth prospects for years to come I expect that the market can trade to around $38 near term...furthermore if you beleive the DVD industry can grow above 35% in 2002 to say up 45%....then ZRAN has some leverage to the upside and when I shock my spreadsheet for 45% revenue growth my earnings model gets me to $1.10 this year......so given that the company is claiming to be gaining market share and DVD should remain robust as penetration rates in the US are estimated at only 25% (and much lower in the rest of the world) I value ZRAN shares at $44 or 40 times my estimate.....the forward P/E is quite high but I think this is warranted given that tangible book value per share is now above $12! By mid year the shares may well be pricing off of 2003 estimates of a good $1.40 which makes a run to the $55-$60 range quite possible sometime over the next year. I am content.....although I am strongly bullish ZRAN at around $30 I will say there may be even more upside in the moment in ESST technologies.....who is earning more money.....and may have more growth potential based on the explosive growth potential of VCD and MP3 players. ESST should be able to get earnings to well above $1.00 per share as well.....and the share are still hovering around $20.Good luck longs.....don`t mind the moronic headlines about ZRAN guiding lower......the Street will be able allowed to write on ZRAN and EPS will come up from a consensus of $0.80 not down.Peak


Re: Zoran Results - Big Positive for ESSby: Schmengrum 01/31/02 10:54 pmMsg: 14427 of 14449
Peak,I agree with most of what you post, but I really think you are missing some more subtle points;1) ZRAN has been in this digital video biz for quite a while and has a better relationship with `the street` than our beloved ESS.2) ESS has changed quite a bit since their past performance. Funny thing is that this selling, on the Chan`s part, is a good indication of this and what so many are worried about ... LOL.3) This one, I think is a good example of investing vs. trading. You cannot fight a ticker, but you are correct that given sound DD you can gain insight into most probable outcomes in fundamental changes which are not history (yet). So I would simply sit back and wait for next Q`s numbers.Well, I hope all make out well.Regards, Schmeng


Re: Secondary is pricing tonightby: tauvros 02/01/02 08:52 amMsg: 14429 of 14449
By Victoria Marcinkowski Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES NEW YORK (Dow Jones)An offering of 4.8 million shares of ESS Technology Inc. (ESST) was priced at $19.38 each through underwriters led by Needham & Co. The size of the offering was upped from 4 million shares. The company is selling 2.5 million shares, while 2.3 million are being sold by shareholders. The underwriters have an option to buy an additional 720,000 shares to cover overallotments. Proceeds from the offering are expected to be used for working capital and general corporate purposes in addition to adding shares to the company`s public float. The Fremont, Calif., company makes mixedsignal semiconductors and software for audio and digital video products. Victoria Marcinkowski, Dow Jones Newswires; 2019382408; victoria.marcinkowski@dowjones.com (END) DOW JONES NEWS 02010208:51 AM


Re: $19.38??by: peak_007 Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy 02/01/02 09:16 amMsg: 14431 of 14450
You don`t unless the market panic sells again based on the low announced offering price.....all in all this entire offering was a complete shit show. I`m not going to blow it out of proportion but the top notch Street Firms would have gotten this done 2 points higher. A cost of 5 million to the shareholders and 5 million for the Chan`s....and a windfall for those getting in at $19.38.1) It goes to show that the larger first tier banks are really needed to get these things done swiftly and at best price.....hope for Street coverage from some bigger fish in 2002.2) That Needham, Unterberg, Soundview, and AG Edwards are a bunch of amateurs.....at least in terms of M&A....I actually do enjoy Scovel`s research (Needham) he nailed GNSS in 2001.....Soundview is insightful at times.....AG Edwards has proven that they can`t even build a spreadsheet.3) Some upside was left on the table in order to move the large block of shares......expect a rally from here to materialize rather quickly.....who is left to sell....those who didn`t like the secondary sold in advance of it.....the shorts should not be shorting more here as we have already completed the 5 point shorts might have been looking for.....institutions should not be sellinng and the 4-horseman will be out with materially more positive research, price targets, and EPS estimates.The Positive: The secondary is in the past....and its all up from here in 2002....EPS sequentially each quarter.....gross margins....potentially good news if they make a decent aquisition this year ...etc...Peak


Re: Peak_007: Question for youby: peak_007 Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy 02/01/02 11:03 amMsg: 14437 of 14450
Reread the following....which I was trying to hammer home in the $18`s while the Street could not comment:http://messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=4687842&… &mid=14400http://messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=4687842&… &mid=14404http://messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=4687842&… &mid=14410http://messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=4687842&… &mid=14425Don`t get too excited yet....there is much higher to go.....try $30`s off the strength of the earnings report and conference call we really should be breaking to those levels right now......expect one more piece of news that drive EPS higher yet again to be the catalyst.....an increase in guidance in late FEB may well be the catalyst......think about all the major ESST news that could potentially hit.......it seems to me to be very skewed towards positive as we go forward:1) New Street coverage - it will be positive2) Higher guidance3) Beating consensus on the Q1 and Q2 reports4) The P/E expanding to 5-10 points higher5) news that DVD`s are growing more robustly than 30-35% annual rates (I expect this)I assure everyone on this board absolutely nothing.....I could be dead wrong....these are just the conclusions of my research and I follow 100`s of other tech stocks.....I don`t need to be here and could have sought out greener pastures.....I think the pasture is green in terms of ESST investment....I have a lot of conviction in my conclusions and beleive that ESST will be a $35 stock or higher in 2002.Parkus: This is an illustrative example of when and where chart reading can give you a very bad signal.Peak


Secondary should spark a monster rallyby: peak_007 Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy 01/30/02 09:52 amMsg: 14400 of 14450
Why......because every nimrod that is unable to forecast ESST earnings next year and wasn`t able to have their hands held in the past few weeks by Wall Street analysts has sold already......I mean they already liquidated in specatular panic-based fashion.After the 2.5 Million shares gets placed.....who is left to sell? It surely won`t be the new holders taking the secondary......it surely won`t be those who have held steadfast because they understood ESST earnings, heard the conference call as bullish, and recognize the strength of the ESST balance sheet.Will new shorts pour in to keep her depressed.....hey you never know right....ESST could be the next Enron.....even though the balance sheet is debt free.....you never know they could have trouble making interest payments....you know....you just never know.Peak


Re: Secondary should spark a monster ralby: peak_007 Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy 01/30/02 03:40 pmMsg: 14404 of 14450
The problem Parkus.....is that even estimates of $0.90 cents imply that:1) the company is unable to earn more than guidance in the first half2) that growth in the second half of 2002 is modest.....perhaps 15% over year ago levels......this would imply significant marketshare loss as DVD growth is expected to be in the 35-50% annual growth rate range.....as prices have come down dramatically and penetration rates are still extrmely low.....not to mention VCD sales which should explode in an environment where the world economy is recovering.So I say $1.10 to $1.20 makes sense given the blowout earnings of Q4.....and guidance was not a disspointment....it is just conservative and prudent given past seasonal trends......when the price of a good (DVD units) comes down dramatically that good tends to experience less seasonality of sales.....and furthermore the corporate prudence of ESST is refreshing given all the BS going on with many larger cap names......guidance is just fine....and will lead to a solid $1.10-$1.25 in EPS which values shares at double the current price.This is one to be aggressively long and excited about.Peak


OK MARKET...I`ll give you a hint.....by: peak_007 Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy 01/31/02 11:05 amMsg: 14410 of 14450
For those that want a Street analyst to hold their hand so that they can feel better and stop selling and start buying ESST with conviction.......perhaps because they don`t trust the dolt from AG Edwards who surely can`t even build a spreadsheet......Here I`ll hold your hand and give you a clue:Dan Scovel is out this morning on first call writing about Zoran (ZRAN)...he can update research on ZRAN but not ESST because of the ESST secondary.......he writes on ZRAN-We expect ZRAN to exceed consensus and meet or exceed our street high estimate of $0.38 in Q4 due to DVD market strength. A major competitor significantly exceeded all growth expectations already on broad based market strength (hmmmm....think long and hard guys about which firms earnings report he is drawing this positive conclusion from......think long and hard...).....he reiterateds a buy rating and price target for ZRAN of $45.Ha ha ha ha ha ha haPeople.....keep selling ESST....could be next Enron because of that killer interest expense....you just never know someimes......Hmmmmmm...ZRAN should earn 3 to 5 cents more than ESST in Q4 and the Needham price objective is $45......now even if you back out the fact that ZRAN has a stronger balance sheet than ESST.....around $11 in tangible book value versus $5 for ESST you get to something like an adjusted forward P/E for ZRAN$45 - $11 = $34 on $1.20 is 28 (34/1.20)Now take ESST:$18 - $5 = 13 on $1.10 is 11 (18/1.10)HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HAKeep selling....could be headed way lower....I mean when Needham is able to finally write a report on ESST after the secondary rhey could downgrade and adjust price targets to $12-$15 range making ESST a sell right.Ha ha ha ha ha haI`ve piled in here.......and have even bought more shares again this morning.....good luck all and enjoy the circus while it lasts....when ESST is in the $30`s we can get back to serious analysis of growth potential and earnings and the balance sheet etc....right now.....this is about as close to a layup as the market will offer...at least in Peak`s opinion.....reminds me of GNSS in the $20`s.Peak


Flipper`s Market Todayby: esst_all_the_way 02/01/02 11:33 amMsg: 14440 of 14450
Today`s action reminds me of the day a stock has its IPO. It is offered to the big guys for a price and then the big guys "flip" their shares the first day of the offering at a quick profit. After all the flipping goes through, then the stock attention starts dying off and then the ones who bought the flips start slowly losing money as the days go by and then they start selling at a loss until finally after all the attention is out of the stock, then the stock falls below the offering price until it stablilizes. For a short term trade, I would sell some today and buy back in about a week or so. Just look at the offering, it was 4 Million + shares, and look at todays volume -- almost close to 5 Million shares in about 2 hours. Since when does ESST do 5 Million shares in two hours if it is not flipping and quick profits being grabbed by the big boys dumping and the small guys again (always buying and then getting stuck). Opinions anyone?Good Luck to all. I am long ESST and like the company, but I think it will trail back in the next week or so after all the hype is over.


spamby: m_bonazzola 02/01/02 11:38 amMsg: 14441 of 14451
the secondary priced at $19.38 or thereabouts...the stock opened at $20 today and went to $22 very fast, where it sits now.The "secondary"is now over. ESST gets $19.38 x 2.8 million (+ 730,000 x $19.38 if "overallotment" is exercised). ESST CLEARLY DOES NOT `NEED` THE MONEY. The secondary (in my opinion) was done to let a selling shareholder (mrs chan) sell a small portion on an orderly basis (2.million shares).Insiders sold the shit out of this stock, but at least the chans have a stack more to sell if they want to.I agree these guys make the sound chip and the video chip that goes into dvds which are very hot right now. We bought one for Chirstmas and enjoy it alot.It is amazing to me the ESST beats it`s earnings estimates by so much, and goes down, because of this overhang of stock, and because insiders were taking profit...I have held.hope fully it is up from here. today was a good start.


Re: 007..............Walking the walk!!!by: parkus_1999 02/01/02 01:49 pmMsg: 14446 of 14452
Good call on the secondary Peak. I must say it is odd that ESST and PLCM were up this week on secondaries. In the past I have always seen stocks fall on secondaries. Recent examples include SEAC and HOLX but I must say secondaries cause declines about 90% of the time. What made you think ESST would rise? I`m definitely not complaining but I am surprised. parkus


Re: 007..............Walking the walk!!!by: peak_007 Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy 02/01/02 02:24 pmMsg: 14447 of 14452
Parkus.....see this post and the 4 links in embedded in this post: In short.....who was left to sell when the secondary got placed? Of course there are relentless waves of sellers that will pound stocks with no earnings, no earnings growth, an credit problems......since ESST has none of these problems.....from $18 it would just be a farce for it to keep trading lower.....the market eventually catches on to thses things....the brokers will push stocks if they are undervalued etc......THATS WHY I FOCUS 95% OF MY RESEARCH ON THE FUNDAMENTALS.....REFINING EPS ESTIMATES.....AND TRYING TO DETERMINE AN APPROPRIATE P/E.....IN THE LONG RUN YOU MAKE THE MOST MONEY BY UNDERSTANDING THESE ITEMS AND FINDING STOCKS YOU HAVE CONVICTION IN BASED UPON THEM.Peakhttp://messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=4687842&… &mid=14437


Re: 007..............Walking the walk!!!by: peak_007 Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy 02/01/02 02:52 pmMsg: 14449 of 14453
no.....its not moving the stock.....but if my research is ahead of the curve it will give other little guys the chance to get in before the big fish take a serious look at the things I am discussing.........like EPS....spreadsheets need to get updated for ESST and the estimates for $70something cents are now ridiculous.....try $1.00 or more.....the realizatoin of this will drive the stock north.....its tough to say when the shareholder base runs out of panicky "dumb money" sellers and morphs into more knowledgeable investors who understand the firm and ESST`s earnings potential.......I believe this is happening today....or at least beginning to happen.Peak

Ende O-Zitat:
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KEINE (!!!) Abstriche vom Kursziel per Ultimo 2002 :)

Gruß,
Duffy2000
Die Kursentwicklung der letzten 4 Wochen bereitet mir
große Sorgen. Aussteigen oder Halten???
Wie weit geht es noch nach Süden??
steht auf meiner watchliste,
mal sehen das june quartal letztes jahr war negativ,
wenns diesjahr positiv wird (minimum 30 cents), dann hat sie ein
ordentliches kgv.
:22AM ESS Tech sees Q2 earnings above previous view (ESST) by Michael Baron
ESS Technology (ESST) is raising its earnings outlook for the second quarter. The provider of silicon components for digital video and home networking systems now expects earnings for the period to be greater than 34 cents a share on revenue of more than $84 million. It had been looking for a profit of 24 to 28 cents a share on revenue of $76 million to $79 million in the quarter. The company cited strong demand for its video products due to growth of its share in the DVD market. The stock closed Monday at $17.75, up 4.2 percent

wollen wir das pflänzchen ein bißchen pflegen,
ich teile zwar noch nicht die meinung des treaderöffners.
aber bis 25 $ kann sie wohl ohne weiteres laufen.
dann werden wir weitersehen.
step by step.


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