Yes, sir, that´s it !!! "Gold During Inflation, Deflation and Chaos!" - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[goldenbear2]

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Casey/dec182002.html

Gold During Inflation, Deflation and Chaos

By Doug Casey
Dec 18 2002

www.dougcasey.com

New production and industrial consumption are relatively unimportant determinants of gold`s price, even though many pundits make much of them. Unlike any other metal, most of the gold that has ever been mined is sitting in the vaults of central banks and the safe deposit boxes of investors. It`s not being "used" for anything: its raison d`etre is simply to be an asset. What determines the price of gold therefore, is the desire of its owners to own it or to liquidate it and own something else.

And that, in turn, depends on the inflation rate (how fast paper money is losing value), the chances of a credit collapse (the likelihood of deflation wiping out paper assets), and the general level of confidence in the future.

The most likely alternatives are much higher inflation or uncontrolled deflation. The creation of more currency and credit are the only ways for the government to fund its deficits, transfer programs, bailouts and other disasters waiting in the wings. And if we have a financial accident, that in itself will be an excuse for the authorities to expand the money supply further. High inflation rates would send gold skyrocketing, much as they did in the 70s.

Yet serious deflation would likely also cause the price of gold to explode. It is the only financial asset that`s not simultaneously someone else`s liability. And if we have deflation this time around, it won`t be possible to buy government paper and wait in safety, as was possible in the 30s, for at least two reasons.

First, a deflation would set off all kinds of spending programs and bailouts. The USG would go from being a questionable risk to a bad risk as it was forced to borrow on a huge scale to finance emergency spending, much of which is already mandated by law, while tax revenues were falling. Second, a deflation would almost certainly result in calls to reinflate as rapidly as possible-a course of action unlikely to inspire confidence in the dollar. Gold would soar in a serious deflation.

Gold is a big winner in either scenario; it is a matchless crisis hedge. It`s the only financial asset that`s completely invisible and private. There are no social security numbers stamped on gold coins, and they leave no paper trail when they change hands. Unlike real estate, for instance, a government cannot easily find gold to tax or confiscate. Unlike stocks, gold doesn`t represent a value that can be dissipated or mismanaged. Unlike bonds, gold cannot default. And unlike currency, gold cannot be inflated away.

There are not many low-risk places for wealth to hide today. But plenty of wealth exists and, as the world`s greatest coward, capital will look for a place to hide when things get scary. Gold is the perfect financial asset in times of uncertainty.

This is not the 70s, when gold was a great speculation. You should view gold as a vehicle for savings and for conservation of capital. When you save, you`re not expecting to hit a long-ball home run; you are simply trying to put away assets for future consumption. You want safety. You do not want to have to trust a government, a banker or the management of some corporation. You want the asset itself, something you can hold in your own hands.

Gold is not a trading vehicle; it`s a core holding. Buy it as privately as possible, put it away, and forget about it.

[Sovereign]

Und ich sah, und siehe, ein weißes Pferd, und der darauf saß, hatte einen Bogen; und es wurde ihm eine
Krone gegeben, und er zog aus als Sieger und um zu siegen.

Und als es das zweite Siegel öffnete, hörte ich das zweite lebendige Wesen sagen: Komm und sieh!

Und es zog ein anderes Pferd aus, ein feuerrotes, und dem, der darauf saß, wurde die Macht gegeben,
den Frieden von der Erde zu nehmen und daß sie einander hinschlachten sollten; und es wurde ihm ein
großes Schwert gegeben.

Und als es das dritte Siegel öffnete, hörte ich das dritte lebendige Wesen sagen: Komm und sieh! Und
ich sah, und siehe, ein schwarzes Pferd, und der darauf saß, hatte eine Waage in seiner Hand.

Und ich hörte eine Stimme inmitten der vier lebendigen Wesen, die sprach: Ein Maß Weizen für einen
Denar, und drei Maß Gerste für einen Denar; und das Öl und den Wein schädige nicht!

Und als es das vierte Siegel öffnete, hörte ich die Stimme des vierten lebendigen Wesens sagen: Komm
und sieh!

Und ich sah, und siehe, ein fahles Pferd, und der darauf saß, dessen Name ist: der Tod; und das
Totenreich folgte ihm nach, und ihnen wurde Macht gegeben über den vierten Teil der Erde, zu töten
mit dem Schwert und mit Hunger und mit Pest und durch die wilden Tiere der Erde.

Und ich sah, und siehe, kein weiteres Pferd....stattdessen ein kleines Männchen schwer bepackt mit Goldunzen, und sein Name war Goldbug.
Und er sagte: Lasset ab vom Dollar, von Greenspan und von Welteke, denn mir ist die Macht gegeben, den DAX und den DOW zu verwüsten. Und siehe, die die nicht folgen dem Rufe des Goldes, werden halten wertloses Papier in ihren Händen unter der Brücke wohnen!



Gruß

Sovereign

[Basic]

Kurzfassung:
Der Krug geht so lange zu Wasser bis er bricht
Basic

[goldenbear2]

Hi Sovereign
Da habe ich aber auch einen:

Off
3,17 Weil du sagst: Ich bin reich und bin reich geworden und brauche nichts, und nicht weißt, dass du der Elende und bemitleidenswert und arm und blind und bloß bist,
3,18 rate ich dir, von mir im Feuer geläutertes Gold zu kaufen damit du reich wirst; und weiße Kleider, damit du bekleidet wirst und die Schande deiner Blöße nicht offenbar werde; und Augensalbe, deine Augen zu salben, damit du siehst.

[Wavetrader]

Die Deflation verstärkt den Zwang zur Inflationierung (Grund: Realzins-Effekt, sowie Kapitalflucht aufgrund von Creditcrunch-Gefahren)

Hier die verschiedenen Phasen und ihre Auswirkungen auf die Anlageformen, dabei sind theoretisch mögliche Ereignisse wie Kriege, Staatsbankrott, oder Credit-Crunch nicht berücksichtigt.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
+: Outperformance gegenüber Aktien
-: Underperformance gegenüber Aktien

................Gold...Geld...Staatspapiere...(Unternehmensgewinne)

Deflationsphase ....+........+.......+......(-)

Inflationswelle ........+........-........-.......(+)

Stabilisierung ..........-........-........-........(-)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Erläuterungen zur letzten Spalte:

Eine Deflation brachte bisher immer einbrechende Unternehmensgewinne mit sich. Da sich Unternehmensbewertungen aber gerade bei niedrigen Gewinnen oder Verlusten auch an anderen Faktoren orientieren, steigt das das KGV in solchen Phasen sogar tendenziell, was bedeutet: Das K sinkt weniger schnell als das G. Daher sind die G (Gewinne) Underperformer gegenüber K (Aktien).

Bei der Inflationswelle sinkt das KGV dagegen immer, da Dividendenrenditen mit den steigenden Anleihenrenditen Schritt halten müssen. Die Gewinne der Unternehmen werden die Bewertungen der Unternehmen daher outperformen.

[howling wolf]

@ Basic: der Student geht solang´ zur Mensa bis er bricht ...
hw

[ursusaureus]

New York Times vom 31.12.2002
http://www.nytimes.com/2002/12/31/opinion/31KRUG.html?todays…

Crisis in Prices?
By PAUL KRUGMAN

Some fuzzy math: In the first 30 days of December 2000, according to Nexis, only six articles in major news sources contained both the word "deflation" and the phrase "United States"; none of those articles suggested that deflation in this country was a real possibility. In the same period last year there were 292 hits; this past month there were 566.

Will deflation be even more on our minds a year from now? About five years ago economists realized that monsters from the 1930`s were once again walking the earth: Japan, the world`s second-largest economy, was trapped in a cycle of falling prices and rising unemployment. But not many people in the U.S. cared about the woes of a faraway country. Like big-time corporate malfeasance, deflation didn`t seem like something America had to worry about.

But like corporate malfeasance, deflation has turned out to be something that can happen here. It`s by no means a foregone conclusion: Federal Reserve officials assure us that they can and will steer us away from a Japanese-style black hole. But we`re close enough to such a black hole that it`s already warping our economic space.

Here`s how it can happen: First, for whatever reason, the economy becomes depressed. The central bank responds by cutting interest rates — but it turns out that even cutting rates all the way to zero isn`t enough to restore more or less full employment.

At that point the economy crosses the black hole`s event horizon: the point of no return, beyond which deflation feeds on itself. Prices fall in the face of excess capacity; businesses and individuals become reluctant to borrow, because falling prices raise the real burden of repayment; with spending sluggish, the economy becomes increasingly depressed, and prices fall all the faster.

We know from Japan`s experience that the descent into such a black hole is a gradual process. Although most economists now date the beginning of Japan`s malaise to 1991, the Japanese economy actually grew, albeit slowly, until 1998 — and it wasn`t until 1998 that Japanese officials appreciated the severity of the problem.

So we shouldn`t take too much comfort from our own sort-of recovery in 2002. Yes, the U.S. economy grew, but too slowly to employ an expanding and increasingly productive labor force. The output gap, the difference between what the economy could produce and what it actually produces, continued to widen. And so the threat of deflation is worse now than it was a year ago.

In fact, by some measures deflation is already here. Prices paid by consumers are still rising, but those received by many businesses aren`t: the government`s index of the prices received by nonfinancial corporations has been falling since the third quarter of 2001.

As a result, we`ve moved closer to the event horizon. The Fed funds rate is only 1.25 percent, yet nothing suggests that the economy is about to close the output gap. The back of my envelope says that G.D.P. would have to grow at least 4.5 percent over the next year to bring an end to deflationary pressure. That`s well outside the range of consensus forecasts.

And the pull of the black hole is increasing. Consider: A Fed funds rate of 3 percent was low enough to get the economy moving in the early 1990`s, so why isn`t a rate of 1.25 percent low enough now? In part because back then business prices were rising, while now they are falling, discouraging borrowing even at very low rates. What if a year from now the Fed funds rate is zero, but prices are falling even faster?

O.K., let`s take a deep breath. Nothing I`ve said is news to Fed officials — a group that now includes my Princeton colleague Ben Bernanke. Also, the black hole metaphor can be pushed too far; as Mr. Bernanke points out, the Fed has other weapons in its arsenal besides low interest rates. The policies he describes haven`t been tested, but in theory they should work. Those policies would be more likely to succeed, of course, if the Bush administration would stop playing politics with fiscal policy and . . . oh, never mind. Anyway, the Fed will do its best.

But two years ago deflation in America seemed a prospect literally not worth writing about. Will it be all over the newspapers a year from now?