Billiges Gold: Kaufe Gold "weil es noch sehr billig ist". - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[peter.wedemeier1]

Habe eben gerade einen interessanten Artikel über den Zusammenhang zwischen Gold, Dollar und dem Aktienmarkt gelesen.
http://www.goldenbar.com/Briefs/01Jul02Briefs.htm

peter.wedemeier1

[mrbody]

Na dann mal los!!! Ich hoffe Du weißt warum Gold nie wieder dort hin steigen wird!

[peter.wedemeier1]

Most people are not aware of this yet, but the impact of China about to enter into the gold market is going to prove the most significant event that will contribute to the rise of POG over the coming years.

Once the Shanghai Gold Market opens up and finds its feet - watch out. This is one gold bear (panda) that is going to be a RAGING, CHARGING, SNORTING, BULL!

ON THAT YOU CAN BET YOUR BOTTOM DOLLAR, POUND, OR EURO

[brezlbua]

@mrbody

offensichtlich hast Du den Artikel gar nicht gelesen. Die Höchstkurse beim Gold aus den frühen 80er Jahren werden im Text mit keinem Wort erwähnt. Der Chart zeigt die Kurse beim Weizen - und wer sich mit der Entwicklung bei den Rohstoffen auseinandergesetzt hat, dem ist klar, dass hier in den kommenden Jahren die Musik spielen wird.

Die meisten Anleger werden das leider erst kapieren, wenn sie mit AOL, Cisco und Konsorten endgültig pleite gegangen sind. Pass auf, dass Du nicht auch dazu gehörst.

Gruß

[peter.wedemeier1]

@brezibua
Ich denke, das Ed Bugos bei dem Leser vorraussetzt, das derjenige, der in den Gold- und Silbersektor investiert den Goldpreis und den zwanzigjährigen Abwärtstrend kennt. Interessant in diesem Zusammenhang finde ich auch das The Dow / The Gold Ratio. Dazu folgende Website:
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Saville/june192002.html
Ich sage ja S&P 500 350 Punkte und dazu passende Stände bei der Nasdaq und beim Dow Jones.

Gruß und Danke

peter.wedemeier1

[Guru-Schreck]

Ich habe jetzt eine Schubkarre voll Gold zu Hause stehen und was mache ich jetzt damit ?

[manfred1_I]

an Guru-Schreck

schnell verbuddeln sonst bricht deine Schubkarre
auseinander. Außerdem könntest du das Gold vom
Gewicht her nicht bezahlen.

[manfred1_I]

Selbst Wim meint:


17:50:53 02.07.2002 - ROUNDUP: EZB-Präsident Duisenberg warnt erneut vor Inflationsgefahr

STRASSBURG (dpa-AFX) - Der Präsident der Europäischen Zentralbank (EZB) Wim Duisenberg hat erneut vor einem Anziehen der Inflation in der Eurozone gewarnt. "Die Aussichten für Preisstabilität sind weniger günstig als im November 2001", sagte Duisenberg am Dienstag vor dem Europaparlament in Straßburg. Grund seien der Preisanstieg auf dem Erdölmarkt im ersten Quartal 2002. Der Umtauschkurs des Euro wird nach Ansicht von Duisenberg "den Inflationsdruck erleichtern".

Für die Euro-Zone sieht Duisenberg ein Wachstumspotenzial von zwei bis zweieinhalb Prozent. Dazu müssten aber auch andere politische Akteure ihrer Verantwortung gerecht werden. Duisenberg zeigte sich in diesem Zusammenhang besorgt über die jüngsten Lohn- und Gehaltsabschlüsse in einigen Ländern. Der EZB-Chef kritisierte ferner die Steuerpolitik einiger europäischer Länder in den vergangenen Monaten, "die keine ausgeglichene Haushaltslage erreicht haben".

VORSICHTIGE STEUERPOLITIK ANGEMAHNT

Der Wohlstand der europäischen Bürger hänge aber auch von einer vorsichtigen Steuerpolitik ab. Dazu gehöre, dass die Haushalte aller Länder annähernd ausgeglichen seien oder Überschuss aufweisen, um genügend Spielraum für unvorhergesehene Entwicklungen zu haben.

Mit Blick auf die so genannte "Teuro"-Debatte sagte Duisenberg, in Wirklichkeit hätten andere Faktoren zur Preisteigerung im Zuge der Euro-Einführung geführt, etwa die schlechte Witterung in den südeuropäischen Ländern bei der Gemüseernte oder die Anhebung der Zigarettensteuern. Duisenberg räumte aber ein, dass "es in einigen Sektoren mit wenig Wettbewerb einige Preisangleichungen nach oben bei der Währungsumstellung gegen haben könnte"./jl/DP/rw

[peter.wedemeier1]

Gold regaining former glory as a safe haven
Rockets us$6.90 an ounce

Drew Hasselback
National Post

Saturday, July 20, 2002
ADVERTISEMENT
Click here to find out more!

Gold soared US$6.90 to US$323.90 an ounce yesterday as investors dumped stocks in favour of bullion, a commodity favoured as a safer bet than the weakening U.S. dollar or sinking global equities.

The prime driver was news of a record U.S. trade deficit. The trade gap for May was US$37.64-billion, a 4% jump from April. That points to a further weakening of the U.S. dollar because it shows that money is flowing out of the U.S. at an increasing rate. The dollar is at a 30-month low against the euro.

Then there was the ongoing meltdown of global capital markets. Falling stock prices have sent investors searching for alternatives. The S&P 500 composite index his down 25% this year.

"Gold did not do well in the stock market bubble. But now that it has deflated, gold has returned as an asset class and as a reserve," said John Ing, president of Maison Placements Canada in Toronto.

Mr. Ing believes gold is on track to rise to US$375 an ounce by the end of the year, and continue to climb to US$510 in 2003.

Indeed, gold futures are indeed pointing to a higher price in the short term. Gold for August delivery rose US$6.80 to US$323.90 on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The 2.1% hike was the biggest gain since Feb. 5.

The gold bug has even begun to nip at market watchers who have previously favoured stocks.

"I am changing what`s left of my mind," said Barton Biggs, chief global strategist with Morgan Stanley.

"This is a plausible case that a professionally managed portfolio consisting of the metal itself and gold shares could realize returns of 15% real per annum in the difficult environment ahead."

Accounting worries continue to cast a pall over equities. The Dow Jones Industrial average plunged to its lowest level since October, 1998, yesterday. The Standard & Poors/TSX Composite Index has lost ground in eight of the last nine weeks.

Investors turn to gold in times of economic panic because gold, and to some extent the companies that produce it, is generally seen as a store of value and a stable alternative to dropping currencies.

[peter.wedemeier1]

>The seminal gold analysis is in


By: Tim Wood

Posted: 2002/07/19 Fri 19:00 | © Miningweb 1997-2002
NEW YORK -- Gold 2002: Can Investment Consensus Be Wrong? is an investment report worth gushing about. Prepared by Peter Palmedo of Sun Valley Gold, it is this year`s most refreshing, lucid, convention shattering take on gold`s secular bull market. That automatically makes it the most important market research of any category since gold is the top performing investment by a long way.

Here`s a quick prediction of how history is going to judge the gold bull market that was confirmed in May 2001 after a $255 double bottom: economist and consultant Dr Martin Murenbeeld will be hailed for his prescient timing of the turnaround, bugs will hate to love Mitsui`s Andy Smith for nailing the mood post 9/11, Pierre Lassonde and Seymour Schulich will get the laurels for the most astute dealing, and Goldcorp and IAMGOLD will be remembered as pioneering hard money stocks; but only money manager cum braniac Peter Palmedo will be lionized for making gold the most respectable subject in daily institutional investment conferences.

We`re away from retread explanations of gold as a one-dimensional safe haven from terror, plague and famine, the more hysterical chants about dark conspiratorial manipulation in the vaults of the NY Fed are receding, and the deflationary-Fed drumbeat of supply-side doyen Jude Wanniski is less impressive.

Written in a calm tone reflecting rock-ribbed confidence, Palmedo`s analysis starts with the famously infamous "Summers-Barsky Gold Thesis" published in the Journal of Political Economy (June 1988). The research by Lawrence Summers, former Clinton Treasury Secretary and current Harvard President, attracted a lot of attention as one of the key exhibits in Reg Howe`s impudent effort to sue Alan Greenspan and other luminaries from the finance-treasury complex for cooking the gold price.

Where Howe and his supporters at the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee saw the thesis as a blueprint for a cabal to rig markets and the dollar in a devilishly clever way, Palmedo saw fine scholarship.

By every measure, gold is performing stunningly. According to Palmedo, the metal has beaten cash by 15% since August 1999, bonds by 21% over the same period, commodities by 19% since December 1997, equities by 17% since July 1999. It is the world`s best currency, drubbing the dollar by 15% since August `99, the euro by 37% in the same time frame, and the yen by 40% since September `99.

A point that Palmedo does not make, but which cries out for recognition, is the coincidence in timing with the tech bubble really gassing up through 1999. Gold is very much the contra-indicator.

How is this to be explained in the present absence of 1970s style inflation? By Summers and Barsky; who concluded, based on two centuries of researched data: "the relative price of gold is driven by (and is the reciprocal of) the real rate of return from capital markets."

Summers and Barsky warn that the obsession with near term supply and demand issues is misguided: "


"Gold is a highly durable asset, and thus … it is the demand for the existing stock, as opposed to the new flow, that must be modeled. The willingness to hold the stock of gold depends on the rate of return available on alternative assets. We assume the alternative assets are physical capital and bonds…"


Now we`ll take credit for saying this in January: "To worry about annual supply and demand in the gold market is akin to standing on Jupiter and making pronouncements about its gravity by examining grains of sand on Earth through a telescope.

"The equivalent of Jupiter`s gravity is the 4 billion ounces of above ground gold that will be set in motion with the right monetary circumstances. Jupiter doesn`t exert much influence on earth, but buckle its orbit and find out what happens."

Palmedo`s analysis shines the light on some early crumpling with a consensus emerging that we`ve commenced a long-term drift in conventional investments.

"Several respected economists… have suggested that current economic conditions are more typical of a classic investment boom/bust episode. Capital market real returns after the boom can be below average for extended periods of time. During this "low capital productivity" period, capital has reduced return expectations and places a higher degree of importance on safety and return of principal. Suddenly, cash becomes more attractive, a premium is paid for credit quality, and 10% nominal returns look like a home run."

In these circumstances, investors usually go hunting for hedge funds, but Palmedo cautions that they do not guarantees sustained high returns. "What is the fundamental and sustainable real return from convertible bond arbitrage, long/short trading, distressed security, or merger arbitrage? By definition, won`t capital markets arbitrage out excess return? In terms of the Golden Goose, are investors seeking the Goose or the Gold?"

Consequently, there is going to be extra demand for gold, which will consistently outperform conventional and arbitrage trading. The problem is that there is so little gold to go around. "A dramatic insufficiency of physical metal. This large differential can only be allocated through price," writes Palmedo.

Palmedo makes gold`s explosive volatility startling and obvious; in a way that all the ranting about an out-of-control gold carry trade has never done. "The investable capital markets, according to a 1998 report by Brinson Associates, are estimated to be $58 trillion. A marginal shift in capital allocation [to gold] of 1/10 of 1%, from 0.4% to 0.5%, would create $50 billion of demand, or two years of [new mine] production. For perspective, Roger Ibbotson and Gary Brinson estimated gold and silver as a percentage of the world`s investable assets went from 3.7% in 1960 to 14% in 1980, and that 7% "may better reflect the relative value of monetary metals over long periods."

Bottom line, as it were, is that there is just not enough gold to go around and only an increase in the unit price ($/oz) will satisfy. With gold hedgers short an estimated 5,000 tonnes (161 million ounces) and producers cutting back capital spending, only sustained high prices will trigger mass dishoarding of the sort we saw in 1980 when people queued in New York and Philadelphia to convert earrings, brooches and necklaces to dollars.

Meanwhile, Palmedo has more manna for gold bugs with this absolute gem that we wish we had written: "For investors, gold is the single best hedge against the risk of low real capital returns, regardless of what may cause it: inflation, deflation, dollar weakness, credit, systemic, geopolitical risk, etc., or any combination thereof. That is the power of gold. It often defies investment classification, whether it is cultural or religious, Eastern or Western, ornamental, industrial, or monetary. Yet in an age where there seems to be an infinite supply of consumable commodities from DRAM to bandwidth to cars to money, what defines gold is scarcity."

[peter.wedemeier1]

Sun Valley Gold LLC 1
Gold 2002: Can Investment Consensus Be Wrong?
The Summers Barsky Gold Thesis
Gold, surprisingly, is one of the best performing major asset classes in the world. Investors are
beginning to ask why. Contrary to the investment consensus that gold is driven by price
inflation, former Treasury Secretary and current Harvard University President Lawrence
Summers concluded in a 1988 published research piece that the relative price of gold is driven
by (and is the reciprocal of) the real return from capital markets. If Summers is correct, then
investors, including the Prudent Man exercising fiduciary responsibility, need to reassess their
thinking about this sector.
Is the price of gold signaling a change underfoot? Over the last several years gold has outperformed
cash (+15% since 8/1999), outperformed bonds (+21% since 8/1999), outperformed commodities (+19%
since 12/1997), outperformed stocks (+17% since 7/1999), and is the strongest major currency in the
world, rising in terms of Dollars (+15% since 8/1999), Euros (+37% since 8/1999), and Yen (+40% since
9/1999)1. Gold equity funds are displaying exceptional performance, rising 40% on average versus a year
ago2. And yet there is no sign of inflation. Is it the time to ask why?
Conventional wisdom cites the lack of price inflation, central bank sales, the failure of gold to respond to
crises such as the war on Iraq and the 9/11 disaster, the strength of the US dollar as the new reserve
currency, and the long-term declining price of the metal, as reasons to avoid gold. The reasoning goes
that investors have modern alternatives such as derivatives, TIPS, hedge funds, international currencies
and cash, which can move at the speed of light, that provide better alternatives for insurance and
diversification. Conventional thinking states that the performance and behavior of gold in this modern
age is something different than it was before.
Lawrence H. Summers, former Treasury Secretary and current Harvard University President, together
with Robert Barsky, provide a cogent explanation in a published article co-authored in 1988 titled
Gibson’s Paradox and the Gold Standard (Journal of Political Economy; vol.96, June 1988, pp. 528-550).
These two highly regarded researchers conclude, based on two hundred years of empirical data, that the
relative price of gold is driven by (and is the reciprocal of) the real rate of return from capital
markets. Importantly, their evidence shows that this relationship has strengthened since the price of gold
has been floated. Summers and Barsky explain:
“Gold is a highly durable asset, and thus, as stressed by Levhari and Pindyck (1981), it is
the demand for the existing stock, as opposed to the new flow, that must be modeled.
The willingness to hold the stock of gold depends on the rate of return available on
alternative assets. We assume the alternative assets are physical capital and bonds…”
(p.539)
This relationship to the capital market real return (and particularly to the movement of the stock market)
has proven stunningly consistent since that paper was written. Statistics show that since 1988 the gold
versus S&P 500 monthly correlation coefficient is negative .85 with an R2 of 72%. During the period of
“irrational exuberance” this relationship strengthened even further, and since 1994 has risen to a
1 Bloomberg L.P. Performance numbers are weekly index closes only, excluding income and dividends, through 3/15/02
2 Bloomberg L.P., through 3/15/02
Sun Valley Gold LLC 2
correlation co-efficient of negative .94 weekly with an R2 of 88%. Statistically speaking, the stock
market explains 72% of the monthly price movement of gold over the past 14 years and 88% of the
weekly price movement over the last eight years.
Table 1. Average Annual Real Returns
1926-2000 1970-1980 1981-2000 1988-2000 1994-2000
Large Cap Stock Index 7.7 0.2 11.7 13.4 15.6
US LT Treasury Bonds 2.1 -3.0 8.1 7.3 5.7
50/50 Stock/Bond Blend 4.9 -1.6 9.9 10.4 10.7
Gold 0.4 19.9 -7.1 -7.5 -7.6
Gold versus S&P 500
Monthly Correlation Coefficient -0.67 -0.85 -0.94
Source: Ibbotson, Bloomberg, SVG research.
The high real returns of the past two decades have been exceptional by historical standards, and
serve as the backdrop for the attitudes toward gold. Several respected economists, including Steven
Roach of Morgan Stanley, William Dudley of Goldman Sachs, as well as Laurence Summers3, have
suggested that current economic conditions are more typical of a classic investment boom/bust episode.
Capital market real returns after the boom can be below average for extended periods of time. During
this “low capital productivity” period, capital has reduced return expectations and places a higher
degree of importance on safety and return of principal. Suddenly, cash becomes more attractive, a
premium is paid for credit quality, and 10% nominal returns look like a home run. The Alternative
Investment boom, a flood of money looking for absolute returns with low volatility, is an outgrowth of
this condition.
The problem with Alternative Investments such as hedge funds as a class is that they do not
necessarily offer fundamentally sustainable high real returns. As Barton Biggs discusses in a
Morgan Stanley Investment Perspectives piece, The Quest for Alpha, and Endangering the Golden
Goose (2/6/02), capital seeking low volatility/high risk-adjusted returns will tend to drive down the
expected return of hedge funds as the competition to deliver alpha increases. In that process, some
managers will win while others will lose. What is the fundamental and sustainable real return from
convertible bond arbitrage, long/short trading, distressed security, or merger arbitrage? By definition,
won’t capital markets arbitrage out excess return? In terms of the Golden Goose, are investors seeking
the Goose or the Gold?
We estimate that if the real return in capital markets averages 5% for
the next several years (at the long-term real return mean), the expected
real return for gold will be above 6% and gold shares above 12%.
Historical evidence suggests that if capital market real returns are around
0%, the expected real return for gold will be near 20% per year. The real
return from gold shares would be expected at twice that, around 40%. Gold
will tend to revert back toward its long-term inflation-adjusted average of
$500. At current prices, gold is trading 40% below its “normal” value in a
“normal” long-term capital return climate. Gold becomes a potent strategic
allocation to hedge below-average real returns from financial assets.
The “problem” with gold is that the elasticity of a positively sloped
investment demand function overwhelms the inelasticity of supply. In a low capital return cycle,
3 The Economist, 3/10/01, p.67.
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10% -8%
-3%
2%
7%
12%
17%
22%
Expected Real Return Matrix
Capital Markets Gold
Sun Valley Gold LLC 3
monetary/investment demand for gold turns positive, and there is a dramatic insufficiency of physical
metal. This large differential can only be allocated through price.
All the mined gold in the history of the world measures only 21 cubic yards and would fit into the
corner of a football field. Of this only 18% is held in investment form, or slightly in excess of $200
billion, less than the market cap of Citicorp. The annual gold supply/demand balance is based on 4,000
tons a year, worth $38 billion, which already draws 1,500 tons from above ground stocks. The investable
capital markets, according to a 1998 report by Brinson Associates, are estimated to be $58 trillion. A
marginal shift in capital allocation of 1/10th of 1%, from 0.4% to 0.5%, would create $50 billion of
demand, or two years of production. For perspective, Roger Ibbotson and Gary Brinson estimated gold
and silver as a percentage of the world’s investable assets went from 3.7% in 1960 to 14% in 1980, and
that 7% “may better reflect the relative value of monetary metals over long periods.”4
The Japanese savings dilemma only serves to highlight the diversified global alternative demand
potential. The Japanese policy of monetary expansion and yen depreciation is an attempt to navigate
through the shoals of deflation and systemic financial risk. With $5 trillion of public savings held in a
potentially insolvent banking system earning near zero interest and denominated in a depreciating
currency, the Japanese are seeking safe “alternatives”. With government savings guarantees being scaled
back, Japanese savers are buying physical gold. This currently amounts to only a trickle, but the Japanese
have watched gold appreciate 40% in yen terms in just over a year and the investment volumes are rising:
a positively sloped investment demand function. A 7% Japanese public savings allocation to gold
translates into 36,000 tons of demand, which would empty every central bank vault in the world. The
motivation of the Japanese saver is very different than the motivation of the US or European investor, but
they have one desire in common. Everyone wants to own some if it is going to go up.
Summers and Barsky touch upon the underpinnings of the
secular rise in the real and nominal floating price of gold.
Summers and Barsky explain: “Secular increases in the demand for
monetary and non-monetary gold caused by rising income levels tend
to create an upward drift in the real price of gold…”(p.540).
Population and income growth exceeds the constrained growth of the
physical stock of the metal, which has expanded at or near a 1.75%
annual rate for centuries. In addition to population and income
growth, in the current financial system monetary growth can far
exceed economic growth. And in fact, money growth has accelerated
as the world economy slows. A longer-term investment view that
expects a drawn-out cycle of low real capital returns could expect to
see gold not only reach new nominal price highs, but also reach new
real price highs. Gold, it seems, provides an exceptional financial
asset hedge.
Defensively, gold has a natural stabilizer. Non-monetary demand has nearly doubled in each of the past
two decades while monetary/investment demand has been negative. Non-investment demand depends on
1,500 tons a year of above ground stocks such as scrap, central bank reserves, and derivative short sales.
Hedgers are already currently short an estimated 5,000 tons. Capital investment in the industry has fallen
off dramatically, and could reduce production by as much as 40% over the next five years. Meanwhile, it
can take upwards of seven years to bring a new mine development from discovery hole to commercial
production. Capital market real returns will have to stay high in order to attract the dishoarding of above
ground gold stocks to fill the existing supply deficit.
4 Roger G. Ibbotson, Gary P. Brinson: Investment Markets: Gaining the Performance Advantage; McGraw-Hill, 1987. p.200
Gold (US$) 1926-2001
10
100
1000
19261936194619561966197619861996
Sun Valley Gold LLC 4
The exciting power of Sun Valley Gold LLC is combining the techniques of bottoms-up fundamental
security and industry research with relative value long and short investing, merger and convertible bond
arbitrage, distressed, private, and pre-public equity investing.
The Sun Valley Gold LLC investment regimen includes knowledge, research, risk analysis, and
trading. Our specialty is in understanding the relative value of global precious metals “in situ”
valuations as derivatives of metals prices, and recognizing organic and external changes in those values.
We research and analyze every major precious metals deposit in the world and determine relative
valuation and risk based on geology, metallurgy, processing, technical, financial and geopolitical
conditions. We pursue indications of organic growth with the expertise of a trained and technical eye.
We monitor industry trends, trading patterns, and sell-side analyst recommendations, seeking aberrations
in market flows and valuations. Of our four in-house analysts, two are geologists, one a mining engineer,
and one a chartered accountant/finance specialist. They have the capacity to do detailed and focused
assessment work beyond the scope of other investors.
The result is endogenous and exogenous alpha, delivering powerful, negatively correlated, risk
adjusted real returns for diversified portfolios.
Beneath the smoke and dust of the thundering herd lies human history’s most reliable financial
indicator, gold, behaving exactly as the Summers and Barsky thesis predicts. Its absolute and
relative price behavior is confirming what many investors already suspect: that we have financial
challenges and risks ahead, and that it will be difficult to make high real returns on capital after two
decades of financial bounty.
For investors, gold is the single best hedge against the risk of low real capital returns, regardless of
what may cause it: inflation, deflation, dollar weakness, credit, systemic, geopolitical risk, etc., or any
combination thereof. That is the power of gold. It often defies investment classification, whether it is
cultural or religious, Eastern or Western, ornamental, industrial, or monetary. Yet in an age where there
seems to be an infinite supply of consumable commodities from DRAM to bandwidth to cars to money,
what defines gold is scarcity.
It stands to reason that in a low return world, gold could provide the highest real return of any
major asset class. That is just what it has been doing. Investors are capital market arbitrageurs seeking
the best risk-adjusted opportunity. Money follows return. The research of Summers and Barsky,
supported by the continuing gold price performance, suggests that the same force driving capital to
Alternative Investments will drive capital markets to gold. There it will meet a supply problem, which
price will need to allocate.
Put gold to the ultimate test: the Prudent Man exercising fiduciary responsibility. He doesn’t rely
on consensus. Yes, investment consensus can be wrong, but capital market performance has a habit of
correcting that in due time. Now is due time.

[peter.wedemeier1]

Barbara Wall IHT
Saturday, July 20, 2002
Viewed by many as an investment for troubled times, gold funds have been enjoying a shining moment. But if the gold bugs are right, and we are in the middle of a sustained bullion run, it is not too late to play the gold card.
.
Managers of gold funds are particularly optimistic because, unlike previous bull runs in gold, there appear to be more than one or two factors driving prices higher.
.
"The Washington Bank Agreement, signed in September 1999, limited the amount of gold that banks could sell back into the market every year, which has boosted confidence in this asset class," said Evy Hambro, who runs an international gold fund for Merrill Lynch.
.
"Global gold production will also be lower this year and in response mining companies have drastically reduced their dependence on exotic hedging contracts," he added. These, added to the weakening dollar and generally nervous market conditions, mean that gold has particularly strong support.
.
As a rule of thumb, for every 1 percent movement in gold prices, there is a 3 percent movement in gold stocks. Hambro recommended that investors limit their gold exposure to 5 percent of their portfolio.
.
"We prefer to invest in companies that do not hedge prices forward and that reward their shareholders by paying dividends," he said. The fund`s largest holdings are Goldfields Ltd., a South African producer whose profit margin has benefited from a weak domestic currency and low-cost production, and Harmony Gold Mining Co. Joe Foster runs a gold and precious metals fund for Van Eck International Investors. He likes Goldfields for its global reach. He also sees the company as an acquisition target. Another favorite is Glamis Gold Ltd., a Finnish mining company that has made three smart and timely acquisitions, he said.
.
Frank Holmes runs two gold funds for U.S. Global Investors. His funds have benefited from being largely invested in midcap, unhedged gold companies - the best performers in the sector during the second quarter.
.
Although Holmes maintains that midcap companies, such as Goldfields, still offer potential, he is turning his attention to companies that are in the process of cleaning up their balance sheets. He likes the Canadian gold company Wheaton River Minerals Ltd. and Apollo Gold Corp."Both companies are debt-free and have serious growth potential," he said.
.
Holmes is confident that gold prices will rise this year.
.
"The bull market started when President Bush was elected, and we figure that it has at least another 10 months to run," he said.
.
But Holmes cautioned against trying to time the market. "I would be very worried if I thought investors were looking at the top performing funds in any one quarter and chasing fund performance," he said.
.
The best way for investors to play the gold sector, he said, is to stay invested in gold and to rebalance their portfolios twice a year - but not fall below the 5-percent rule. "That way," he said, "they will capture any sudden swings in the sector." - Barbara Wall

[peter.wedemeier1]

...But, we are seeing recommendations for the purchase of gold from respected analysts that would have seemed impossible in years past. Last week, Morgan Stanley`s global strategist, Mr. Barton Biggs joined the goldbugs, in years past thought of as the lunatic fringe, in recommending gold. In his words, "I have never believed in gold, for all the conventional reasons, but now I am changing what`s left of my mind. I think that there is a plausible case that a professionally managed portfolio could realize returns of 15% real per annum in the difficult environment ahead." Continuing with his quotes, "In a bleak world, gold could beat almost everything else, it certainly is possible that gold can return to its long-term equilibrium inflation price of $500 per ounce." OK, if that doesn`t rock your world, global investment bank HSBC recently published a report on the gold market in which their analyst predicts that gold could have an upside of $100 to $200...

[manfred1_I]

Wenn man sich heute die Bankaktien ansieht, dürften
Morgen die ersten Kleianleger losmarschieren und
ordern, ordern, ordern.



JPM z.B. bis minus 18 % vorhin.


Aber nur physisches Gold. Oz.Stücke, Barren usw.

[manfred1_I]

ROHSTOFFE

Baring Asset Management (BAM) empfiehlt, den Rohstoffsektor überzugewichten. In der derzeitigen Situation schwacher und turbulenter Aktienmärkte habe sich dieser Sektor als relativ sichere Investition erwiesen, begründete BAM in einer Analyse. Die zyklischen Substanzwerte aus den Branchen Grundstoffe, Metalle, Öl und nicht zuletzt Gold hätten der Abwärtsbewegung der globalen Aktienmärkte in den vergangenen Monaten relativ sicher standgehalten.

[peter.wedemeier1]

>Gold price mauls Aussie stocks


By: Peter Gonnella

Posted: 2002/07/24 Wed 20:29 ZE8 | © Miningweb 1997-2002
PERTH – The shock US$10-plus an ounce plummet in the gold price to about US$312-313/oz wreaked havoc on the Australian gold index today (Wednesday). It was the biggest one-day fall in the gold price in almost three years.

With global equities markets in severe decline, especially in the US, the gold price was widely tipped to climb, but instead it tanked as the surprisingly stronger US dollar and long liquidation by hedge funds quashed any suggestion of the precious metal testing the early June high of US$331/oz. Gold prices soared to that two-and-a-half-year high due partly to the then softer US dollar, which made gold a more attractive investment using foreign currencies. But last night the US dollar did a Lazarus, posting its largest rise against the euro in 18 months and against the yen in four months.

Despite the Dow Jones crashing to five-year lows and further deterioration of the Middle East crisis, there are signs gold investor fatigue and growing wariness of this volatile market have set in. Has gold`s run run out of puff? The way major gold mining shares were belted on the ASX today seems to indicate a correction has taken hold. Meanwhile, the improved US dollar could quell demand from jewellery manufacturers and investors in Asia and Europe.

According to leading Aussie gold analyst, Rob Brierley of Paterson Ord Minnett, hedge funds were closing out their short positions in the US dollar and long positions in gold, which triggered the plunge in the gold price and created a somewhat tenuous turnaround in the dollar`s fortunes.

Standard Bank added that funds appeared more preoccupied with a stronger dollar and a sharp fall in the XAU index of gold mining stocks, which lost 11 per cent last night rather than the Dow`s woes. "This weakness in gold mining stocks spilled over into the underlying metal trading and was a key factor behind the heavy funds liquidation," it reported.

Gold came under pressure in Asia yesterday, and the trend persisted in London, where gold dipped below US$320/oz ahead of the New York opening. "The decline came in the face of excellent buying from the physical sector, which helped to stabilise the market before a fresh wave of fund selling saw gold end a crazy day just off the lows," the bank said. "The lower gold price is good news for physical traders but demand may be muted by seasonal factors."

The ugly trading pattern extended to the Australian bourse, which took no prisoners as leading gold stocks on the ASX were massacred. AngloGold [ASX:AGG] closed down A$0.84 or 9.34 per cent to finish on A$8.15/share; AurionGold [ASX:AOR] dropped A$0.34 or 9.77 per cent to A$3.14; Newcrest Mining [ASX:NCM] lost A$0.86 or 13.21 per cent to end the day at A$5.65; Lihir Gold [ASX:LHG] was down A$0.08 or 6.15 per cent to A$1.22; Newmont Mining [ASX:NEM] A$0.40 or 8.7 per cent to A$4.20; Durban Roodepoort Deep [ASXRD] A$0.55 or 7.38 per cent to A$6.90; Kingsgate Consolidated [ASX:KCN] A$0.20 or 8 per cent to A$2.30; and Croesus Mining [ASX:CRS] A$0.04 or 6.15 per cent to A$0.61. Sons of Gwalia [ASX:SGW] got off relatively lightly, giving up A$0.15 or 2.81 per cent to A$5.18, as did Equigold [ASX:EQI], which eased A$0.04 or 4.44 per cent to A$0.86.

It wasn`t all doom and gloom, however. According to Leonard Kaplan, president of Prospector Asset Management, the onslaught on global markets was mainly driven by funds` margin selling to finance losses suffered on the equity markets as well as funds needing to book profits. He added that once the margin calls had been met and profits crystallised, those funds would probably return to the gold market as buyers, which would help the gold price to recover. Also there was evidence of physical traders buying at the metal`s lower price levels in Asian markets today.

Paterson`s Brierley said even though some speculators had been panicked out of the market, overall the gold price had held up reasonably well for over four months and acted as a solid currency in this environment. "This is a fickle market," he said. "But we believe this is a sustainable rally (in the gold price).

"There should be support levels at US$310-311/oz," Brierley said, with fingers crossed. "We continue to hold the view that the fundamentals are still intact for a modest gold price appreciation." The Perth-based analyst expected the gold price to bounce on the back of a quickly retreating US dollar.

Gold was trading at about US$311/oz at the time of writing.

[peter.wedemeier1]

Prophesies of Mahendra Sharma
ASTROLOGER AND PROPHET

Gold + Silver

Wednesday 24th July, 2002
07:32:48 EDT

MAHAYAGNA FOR GOLD

I am doing "MAHAYAGNA" for gold and silver (white and yellow metals) on 4th August 2002 or I might do it on 8th August (I will announce the date if there is any changes), great combinations I say (PUSYAGAJKESHRI YOGA). All those interested in attending MAHAYAGNA are most welcomed in Nairobi.

I am not doing this because gold and silver prices are going down. I have already decided ten days ago. I cannot change my predictions because I saw GREAT RISE for gold and silver one year back after doing a detailed astrological research on gold. I saw a great up trend coming for gold, not for one month or year only but as I said for fifty-two years (52yrs). During this period small down turn will always come but the overall GOLD will higher and higher from US$ 400 to 1800 and above.

As I predicted last week on 15th July 2002 that 19th July 2002 was very important for both gold and silver, if they closed higher (as we know they did) then a rise in prices is coming for 27 days. Yesterday on 23rd July 2002 we saw a drastic fall in gold and silver prices this is because currently Mass is in a very negative position for 20 days. In my book in gold section on page 39 last paragraph says "July 19 to July 25 2002, prices of GOLD will remain uncertain"

As I predicted about Blue chip companies in USA and the World Stock Market falling this is already happening (in stock market section on page 36 says July 13 to September 8 2002 USA will experience political and economic instability, Financial market will remain very uncertain). Also as I predicted last week, the dollar is picking. I would like to clarify that in future if the World Stock Market and the Dollar rises it will not have any negative impact in gold and silver. Currently there is great manipulations taking place in the world to bring down the prices of GOLD but they will not succeed.

I am requesting to fast for six (6) hours on 4th of August (you can have water, tea and juices but no food) and on 4th August you can buy physical gold or gold stocks as a token for good luck.

Thanks

GOD BLESS

MAHENDRA SHARMA

www.mahendraprophecy.com/

[peter.wedemeier1]

Gold futures at the crossroads

Clif Droke
Jul 25, 2002

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/droke/droke072502.html

[peter.wedemeier1]

A different kind of gold rally
August 7, 2002
http://64.29.208.119/archive_comm_article.asp?content_idx=14…