Kursentwicklung bei Parsytec bis zu den zahlen am 13.05.03 - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[GordonGeccoI]

Was meint Ihr, wie entwickelt sich der Kurs bis zu den Zahlen und wo steht er nach den Zahlen.

Desweiteren bitte Eure Einschätzung bis Jahresende.

Meine Einschätzung:

bis zu den Zahlen 2,30
nach den Zahlen kurzfristig auf 3,00 €

Jahresende 5,50 €
Bitte nur ernszgemeinte Tipps.

Gruss

Gordon

[goma]

Hallo
ich seh` die kursentwicklung eher gesamtmarktabhängig.
geht`s in den nächsten Wochen eher runter, wird auch Parsytec nicht übermäßig steigen.
fallen dazu die Zahlen nicht ganz so aus wie zumindest hier die meisten glauben, wird auch die 2 nicht halten.

Geht der Gesamtmarkt weiter hoch und die zahlen sind so wie erwartet oder gar noch besser sind sicherlich deine 5 € auch drin!
alles natürlich nur IMHO
goma

[iamback]

na bernd suchst du wieder lemminge, wirst wohl deinen schrott nicht los allein mit deiner kurstrickeserei.....

[GordonGeccoI]

Was soll das?

Ich bin weder Bernd, noch will ich Schrott los werdn.

Ich möhte sachliche Meinungn zu Aktien, von denen ich meine, dass Sie zu den Outperformern dieses jahres gehören.

Also bitte lass solche Anschuldigungen.

danke und Gruss

Gordon

[pedro_III]

@iamback

Wird man von Dir jemals ein nicht gar so negatives Statement lesen? Gibts es auch Werte, die Du magst oder haust Du grundsätzlich auf alles, was kurstechnisch nicht schnell genug auf die Bäume kommt?

[sanmarino]

Warten wir ersteinmal auf die Zahlen,dann sich wir alle schlauer.Und vielleicht einige traurig vorher nicht investiert gewesen zu sein.

[Zwerg Nase]

Noch 6 Börsentage !!!

[claudi33]

mein ziel sind so 2,5 euro....

[DieFilzlaus]

Ich rechne schon mit einem weiteren moderaten Anstieg.
Ca 3,5 Euro möchte ich in den nächsten 4 Wochen als Ziel für nicht übertrieben ansehen.
Bei der HV im Mai wird wohl das Rätsel der höhen Umsätze der letzten Zeit gelöst werden.
Ich glaube es waren massive Verschiebungen von Besitzverhältnissen. Etwa abgesprochene
Überkreuzbeteiligungen mit Auftraggebern wie z.B. Tyssen-Krupp ober Bankbeteiligungen etc. ???
Übrigens glaube ich an ein bullisches Szenario für den TecDAX und vor allem für PrimeStandard Titel in 2003.
Hier wird es viele Übernahmen geben !

[sanmarino]

Der Kurs scheint sich heute schon einmal über die 2 Euro zu heben.

[Zwerg Nase]

parsytec ! ICH FIND ES LUSTIG ! MAN MERKT ES KAUM; HEHE

[CrazyBroker]

So langsam kommen mir aber Zweifel an guten Zahlen.

Keine Umsätze und kein Kursanstieg, wie ungewöhnlich.

Bye Hansi

[CrazyBroker]

Ups, gerade geschrieben und schon zieht der Kurs an. Werde ich hier belauscht?

[candyman2]

ist ja auch immerhin noch eine woche zeit.
kurs xetra bei 2,15.

[albertotomba]

Q1 expectations:

sales: 8,6 mio
EBIT: 1,0 mio
EBT: 1,1 mio
EPS: 0,05 EUR

alberto

[albertotomba]

2003 expectations:

sales: 29 mio
EBIT: 1,8 mio
EBT: 2,2 mio
EPS: 0,11 EUR

alberto

[Zwerg Nase]

parsy go ffm bei 2,04 € endspurt !

[Bergbäuerin]

@Zwerg nase
Was soll denn dieses dauernde Postinghochgehole ohne jede Substanz. Das nervt und man merkt das du der erste bist, der bei 2,10 draußen bist.

Per Saldo habt Ihr den Sprung über 2 mir zu verdanken
Mach ich nicht für euch

Viele Grüße aus den Bergen

[Zwerg Nase]

sorry, habe einen im tee! kommt nicht wieder vor, hehe ! und ich hatte wohl schon mehrfach die chance bei 2,10 zu verkaufen aber so doof für wie du mich hälst bin ich nicht meine liebe bergbäuerin. und ein wenig humor stünde dir auch nicht schlecht ...

[Bergbäuerin]

Hast recht, Humor fehlt mir total.

Aber was hat Humor mit diesen Dauerpostings zu tun ??

[Zwerg Nase]

oh gott, vergiss es ! machst hier einen wind wegen 5-6 postings. bist ja echt ungeniessbar. prost

[Zwerg Nase]

extra nochmal für bergbäuerin: parsytec yeaaaaaaaaaaaaah, supergeil, endspurt, boaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhh parsy parsy schalalalalala ! PARSY PARSY YIPIIEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

[Bergbäuerin]

Prost

War nett von dir das du nur zweimal postest.
Aber bitte laß dich nun nicht provozieren, war wirklich echt nett von dir.

Ist nichts gegen dich persönlich, nur die Informationflut, muß man halt irgendwie filtern können, und wenn da zeitliche Probleme bestehen, kann man das auch schon mal zur Aussage bringen.

Ich weiß, humorloser Text.

[peter22]

ich konnte es einfach nicht lassen , und hab mich wieder
voll eingekauft ,

gruss an alle paq fans peter

[peter22]

9k

[lenny007]

March 2003 - Process Automation


A web inspection system made a good sheet better
Satisfying a demanding value chain

by GRAEME RODDEN, Editor

As the entire papermaking production process becomes more automated, mills search to discover ways that technology can help them reduce defects ever further, many times in response to the increasingly demanding claims of their customers.

Web inspection systems are becoming more prevalent, even on smaller machines. In these systems, cameras check the web and not only document defects but analyze them as well. The images - holes, spots, cracks, streaks , scratches, and many more - can be classified in real time and additional information such as location of defect and size can be stored in a database for long-term archiving.

According to Andreas Nolden, manager of product marketing, Parsytec, the data provided by web inspection systems are no longer only used for quality analysis purposes but more and more to optimize the production process, including further converting stages.

UPM-Kymmene`s Tervasaari, Finland, mill recently replaced the web inspection system on its PM 8 with a Parsytec system, bought from Parsytec`s sales partner Metso Automation, which also provides customer support. PM 8 produces 130,000 tonnes/yr of release paper, making it the largest such machine in the world. When installed in 1996, it was the only machine built to produce release paper, a very demanding application, particularly when seen in the light of the converters` needs.

The Tervasaari mill complex is one of the largest specialty paper mills in the world. It now runs four paper machines: 5, 6, 7 and 8. PM 5 also produces self-adhesive glassine-type release paper: 60,000 tonnes/yr. PM 6 produces 115,000 tonnes/yr of brown sack and kraft wrapping papers. PM 7 produces 90,000 tonnes/yr of envelope paper.

HTP ODIS lets the operator view current classified inspection results in real-time


Number one in the world

The Tervasaari mill is the world`s largest producer of release papers. PMs 8 and 5 are both among the five largest release paper machines in the world. Between them the two machines have 20% of the global market share. Annual consumption is approximately one million tonnes worldwide. The release paper market is also one that has been relatively resistant to any downturn with consumption growing at 4-5%/yr.

The mill ships about 5% of PM 8`s production to Japanese label producers, notorious for their high quality demands. Tervasaari`s production manager for UPM Label Papers, Jaakko Nikkila, explains how demanding the Japanese market is: "They are looking for clean paper and they can already get it from their own market. The laminate market is well served because of the Japanese players."

There are also differences in philosophy of which European papermakers hoping to crack the Japanese market must be aware. "Clean paper and the right shade are the number one values," Nikkila adds. In Europe, it`s uniformity, strength properties and silicon consumption that are important.

"In Japan, zero defect levels are also important; they do not accept anything else."

However, Nikkila is not complaining about his customers. He thinks that their demands have helped Tervasaari develop its processes. "If we can serve Japan, we can serve the whole world. They talk of things we are not used to. If we have defects, they ask us how we solve them. Our Japanese customers are used to suppliers who remove defects and patch the web. We don`t do that. We cut the web and splice. We can do that once per roll. If there are more defects, we reject the whole roll." The need to improve quality by eliminating defects at an early stage was one of the reasons why the mill wanted to renew its web inspection system, says Nikkila. Detection was unreliable on the old system, he explains.

Another thing the mill learned from the Japanese is that it is essential to inspect the web with a through (or transmission) light and reflection light (on both sides of the web). The mill`s original system was old technology that only used transmission light and was unable to take images.

Nikkila notes that the efforts are well worth it as the sales price for laminate in the Japanese market is significantly higher than anywhere else. "We know the paper we supply there is better for siliconizing and laminating and is almost a perfect sheet."

How is release paper converted? Typical silicon content for release paper is 1 g/m2 and the thickness is one micron. When the paper is siliconized, converters also use reflective lights for both sides of the web and a transmission light.

This is followed by 40 g/m2 of adhesive, 20 g/m2 of which is dry. The silicon must be cured after application, usually through ovens. Then, the adhesive is applied and cured, again through ovens where the water-based adhesive evaporates. The release paper then passes through a laminating nip where the face paper is applied.

The roll is then slit into thinner coils and it is off to the printing house. There the roll is die cut and the extra face paper (or ladder) removed. The roll is then slit into the actual label width.

The performance of the release paper has to be good at all stages. Holes are critical because adhesive is put on top of the base and silicon does not cover holes so adhesive would go through and cause web breaks. The market has developed such that customers will claim downtime on their machines from the paper manufacturer so holes can be a very expensive proposition.

In medical applications, quite often plastic or other synthetic label material is used. The label may have a bar code or medical information on it. If there is dirt on the backing paper where the bar code goes, there is the potential for wrong information to appear on the bar code. That is why an absolutely clean sheet is critical.

Spots mean extra material is on the paper and this plays havoc with die cutting because the tools are calibrated to cut to an exact thickness.

It is, as Nikkila stresses, a demanding value chain. He estimates that each step in the process increases the value of the product by a factor of four. "That`s why it is easier and wiser to reject the material here rather than have claims from Japan."

It was not so much that PM 8`s sheet quality was poor, but the mill had to make it better. "We also had to get reliable information especially in regard to defect levels," Nikkila adds. "The starting point was the reliable information. We had cases where we had supplied paper in which we had not noticed defects and our Japanese customers who had web inspection systems informed us of defects."

A bit embarrassing maybe, but as Nikkila notes, "This is the world we live we live in. It`s also why we decided on reflection light because we realized they could see more than us." As Nikkila notes, "Our product is quite different from newsprint."

The reflection light focuses on surface defects. Classification is crucial because the mill must separate defects based on size as well as type (streak, hole, dirt, etc). Defects less than 2 mm2 are not so severe. In terms of type, as noted, holes are the worst.

Just the facts

In installing the system, Nikkila says the mill`s basic requirement was to know the facts. Tervasaari did not want to lose customers because they knew about defects before the mill did.

Secondly, the mill wanted to determine and classify defects reliably, to know what had happened and to eliminate the causes. The missing factor from the old system was reliable information.

The Tervasaari mill opted for the Parsytec system in April 2001. It took until July 2002 until the mill was satisfied. It was and is a demanding application, Nikkila concedes. (PM 8 runs many different shades and grammages, from 50 to 90 g/m2.) Lothar Stein, regional technical manager, Parsytec says, "It was a really challenging project. In the implementation phase the performance level compared to the previously installed web inspection system has been increased immediately, but it took some time to fine-tune the system and completely satisfy our customer."

The equipment was installed in three stages. The first system went in on the PM 8`s first supercalender (SC 81), then on PM 8 and finally on PM 8`s second supercalender (SC 82). The inspection equipment comes after the supercalendering on the supercalenders. On PM 8, it is located after the dryer, before the remoisturizer. At first, the new system was running side by side with the old. The difference in the information received was apparent immediately. The old system only provided symbols; the Parsytec system provides images of the defects. Fine-tuning the new system was time-consuming because it was so sensitive, it could pick up the formation. "Step by step we have achieved the information we need," Nikkila says, "including information about burst."

After the first installation on SC 81, a mosquito flew in between the scanning light and the web. The image was picked up by the system and the operators at first thought it had some major dirt problems. However, the insect never alit on the web. "We realized then the benefits that could be realized from the system," Nikkila says. The mill also installed a bug-zapping UV light next to the supercalender.

The system may pick up several defects in a short span because of a process upset. Then, the mill must try to discover the cause. However, the web inspection system also provides some possible causes of problems that appear. How fast the change is made depends on the problem and where it is.

Nikkila provides some examples. After a maintenance shutdown, there was a defect in the web. The system knew all the paper machine parameters. It said it was a periodical disturbance because of the bottom wire. The operators tried to solve it during the run but this was not possible. The paper machine was stopped and the wire section pout on crawl speed. A grease stain was found on the wire. It was cleaned and the paper machine restarted. The mill only lost about 30 minutes of production.

The system on PM 8 is located after the dryer section



Last year, the system picked up a defect that looked like a comet with a tail, about 5 cm long. This was immediately classified as a potential severe defect. The mill realized it was from the first cylinder in the pre-dryers or the first cylinders in the post-dryer. These were received with a Teflon-like material and the problem disappeared.

The system will notice when a different pulp is used. If problems occur, the mill can go back to the pulp supplier and ask that improvements be made. (PM 8`s furnish is about 25% in-house pulp and 75% market pulp.)

PM 8 had a web fluttering problem because of a felt defect. "A web defect appeared that we could not understand," Nikkila explains. "The web inspection system pointed it out to us. It took a day to locate the problem. The felt supplier was called in to measure permeability; the felt was blocked."

The data is archived so if similar problems occur again, the operators will know where to check first. Operators have accepted the new system. As Nikkila notes, this only happens when they see something useful. Basic maintenance for the system simply means cleaning the lenses of the camera and illumination housing.

In 2002, the mill improved its percentage of paper being rejected because of defects. This does not necessarily result in a cost savings for Tervasaari as it often had to spend to solve. However, the knowledge gained and the reduction in the number of defects is viewed as being worth the expense.

The web inspection system that Parsytec supplied includes the HTP 4.0 web inspection, the Unwind Control System 4.0 (UCS) and the Customer Roll Defect Report (CRDR). Parsytec`s software-based approach is designed to build a web inspection infrastructure for production optimization along the value chain. As Nolden says, "From an IT point of view, we offer a knowledge-based system that consists of methods to map defect knowledge into classifiers. The system comes completely pre-configured; its knowledge is based on the papermaker`s knowledge that is downloaded into the system."

Parsytec pre-loads its systems with a tool dubbed InstantClassifier, which condenses project and classification know-how from more than 80 projects across different paper applications. The company says its web inspection systems are also easily adapted to individual defect phenomena and customer-specific paper classification demands.

The UCS allows automated stops for defects at the winder at its best within an accuracy of 15 cm at Tervasaari. Already at the web inspection system the operator decides the defects to stop or crawl for. All defect types - including the defect data - are transferred to the UCS. With UV-dye an absolute length bar code is marked on the web and when reading equipment at the winder finds the mark, the system is synchronized. Even after web breaks this bar code allows to resynchronize the system and to handle the defects precisely as planned. The operator can also decide to see the defect and stop or slow the winder. Furthermore, he can access any other defect classified by the web inspection system up to 2 m before the current position, re-evaluate it by help of the defect image and decide on appropriate action. These defects can then be removed at the rewinder and the roll spliced. Or, the roll can be rejected. This component also operates well, Nikkila adds, and there is still potential to make it more reliable in terms of the marking and reading of the marking.

The CRDR was pioneered at Tervasaari. It generates and prints customer roll reports based on inspection data, slitting plan and edge tracking data. Overall, the reports show an accuracy of +/- 5 mm for the defect locations. The UCS based absolute length code and the edge tracking module are both essential for this precision. Effects like cross web movements are eliminated, CD and MD positions can be targeted exactly. Thus, the reports provide a detailed and precise guide for removing defects at the rewinder.

Based on reports from the slitting plan for the mother reel, the CRDR produces reports from customer rolls that can be sent to the customer. This helps customers that do not have defect detection systems.

For major defects, Tervasaari will not ship the roll. Minor defects that would not affect the customer`s operations can be ignored. However, the customer always knows what is coming so it can react. Nikkila notes that Japanese customers will sometimes choose the end use based on the number of defects and there are end uses that allow light defects. "The system gives us files and we can e-mail them to customers."

Improving the process

In future, Nikkila wants to focus on a more paper grade specific classification. This is why he thinks about an overall upgrade of the Parsytec product chain.

When all is said and done, Nikkila says the new inspection system allows Tervasaari to better serve existing customers. Defect-based customer claims have dropped. The mill has decreased the broke in the system caused by dirt or other defects from 1.2% to 0.7%.

The mill is not finished with PM 8 yet. Although there is no firm timetable established, UPM-Kymmene wants to increase the machine`s capacity by 50,000 tonnes/yr. This would mean increasing machine speed to 1,100 m/min and adding supercalendering capacity.




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[pedro_III]

@lenny007

Wie wäre es mit einer Kurzzusammenfassung in deutsch?

[lenny007]

@pedro

siehe dazu (auf Deutsch)

http://www.parsytec.de/pdf/Success_Story-UPM_Tervasaari_D.pd…

tervasaari ist bereits Kunde von Parsytec und nachdem
das System erfolgreich installiert ist stehen die Chancen nicht schlecht auf ein "overall upgrade",
d.h. nichts anderes als weitere Aufträge für Parsytec.


Improving the process

In future, Nikkila wants to focus on a more paper grade specific classification. This is why he thinks about an overall upgrade of the Parsytec product chain.

When all is said and done, Nikkila says the new inspection system allows Tervasaari to better serve existing customers. Defect-based customer claims have dropped. The mill has decreased the broke in the system caused by dirt or other defects from 1.2% to 0.7%.

The mill is not finished with PM 8 yet. Although there is no firm timetable established, UPM-Kymmene wants to increase the machine`s capacity by 50,000 tonnes/yr. This would mean increasing machine speed to 1,100 m/min and adding supercalendering capacity.

[pedro_III]

Übrigens erwarte ich morgen ein statement von tradecentre.de. Die haben auch im November 2002 2 Tage vor den Zahlen eine Kaufempfehlung ausgesprochen. Dies könnte sich nun wiederholen, wobei ich nach den Zahlen weitere Aufstufungen erwarte. Sollte es Parsytec gelingen sich ein Monopol dank bester Technik zu erarbeiten, dürfte im Laufe des Jahres 2003 eine komplette Neubewertung des Unternehmens erfolgen. Und dann ist es wirklich egal, ob man für 1,98 oder 2,08 gekauft hat.

[CrazyBroker]

@pedro_III ,

bei den mikriegen Umsätzen, was soll denn da neu bewertet werden?
Welcher Jahresumsatz/Gewinn könnte überhaupt jemals erreicht werden?

Ich meine, vom max. möglichen Gewinn hängt ja schließlich auch die max. mögl. Bewertung/MK ab.

Wieviele Aktien gibt es, ca. 12,5 Mio?

Bye Hansi ...immer noch skeptisch, weil ganz neues Segment

[albertotomba]

@CrazyBrocker,

in diesem Jahr dürften 0,10 und im nächsten durchaus 0,25 - 0,33 Euro/share drin sein. Wenn PAQ mittelfristig (ab dem nächsten Jahr) wieder auf den angestrebten Wachstumspfad von mind. 30% p.a. kommt, dann ist es ja ein leichtes Rechenspiel das eine mit dem anderen zu multiplizieren. Man braucht nur etwas Zeit und Geduld.

alberto

[albertotomba]

sorry, natürlich Broker

[CrazyBroker]

@albertotomba ,

ok, damit wären wir bei einem KGV von 20 für dieses Jahr und damit die Kurssteigerung für dieses Jahr gerechtfertigt, aber bis wieviel könnte es auf Dauer gehen?
30% draufgerechnet ergibt einen Kurs für Ende 2004 von 2,60€ bei KGV=20.
Die Bandproduktionsstraßen sind irgenwann einmal alle bestückt, wann wäre die Technik überholt, das alte Kunden wieder neue Kunden werden?

Bye Hansi

[albertotomba]

@CrazyBroker, da hast Du mich falsch verstanden. Die 30% Wachstum, die ggf. im nächsten Jahr zu erreichen wären, sollten als Multiplikator für den Gewinn `04 dienen. Also 30 * 0,3 = 9. Ob es dann letztendlich nur 8 werden, darüber wollen wir nicht streiten. Du musst PAQ mit den int. Wettbewerbern vergleichen. Wenn Du ein Umsatzmultiple von Cognex nimmst, dann kommst Du auf noch höhere Werte (11 -12) und wenn Du Dir einmal den Kursanstieg bis ins Frühjahr 2002 ansiehst, dann siehst Du ... it is possible

Nur noch ein Wort zum künftigen Wachstum, PAQ kann aufgrund einer höheren Penetration der erwähnten Bandproduktionsstraßen bei den Stahlherstellern und auch durch eine Erschliessung neuer Segmente wachsen. Der Markt bietet sehr viel Potential für die Zukunft.

aber schaun wir erstmal, was die Zahlen am Dienstag sagen...

alberto

[WiedhelmBusch]

!

Dieser Beitrag wurde vom System automatisch gesperrt. Bei Fragen wenden Sie sich bitte an [e-mail]

[Zwerg Nase]

DGAP-Ad hoc: Parsytec AG <PAQ> deutsch

deutsch

Ad-hoc-Mitteilung übermittelt durch die DGAP. Für den Inhalt der Mitteilung ist der Emittent verantwortlich.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Turnaround erreicht Auftragseingang deutet auf günstigere Rahmenbedingungen Umsatz +49 %, positiver Cash-flow

Aachen - 13. Mai 2003. Parsytec AG - weltweit führender Hersteller von Oberflächen-Inspektionssystemen für die Bahnwarenproduktion - teilt die Ergebnisse der ersten drei Monate des Geschäftsjahres 2003 zum 31.03.2003 mit. (Mio EUR) Q1 2003 Q1 2002 Auftragseingang 9,2 7,7 Umsatz 8,6 5,7 EBIT 0,0 -1,9 EAT 0,1 -1,7

Turnaround erreicht: Positives Ergebnis im 1. Quartal Wie prognostiziert erreichte Parsytec im 1. Quartal des Geschäftsjahres 2003 den Turnaround. Mit einem Ergebnis nach Steuern von 0,1 Mio EUR wurde der angestrebte Break-even als erster Schritt auf der Rückkehr zu nachhaltiger Profitabilität erreicht.

Umsatz steigt um 49% Die Umsatzentwicklung gestaltete sich mit einem Anstieg im Vorjahresvergleich um 49% ebenfalls positiv, sequentiell konnte eine Steigerung um 28% erzielt werden.

Höchster Quartals-Auftragseingang seit 2 Jahren Mit 9,2 Mio EUR wurde der höchste Auftragseingang seit dem 1. Quartal 2001 verzeichnet. Während die Gesellschaft diesen absoluten Level noch nicht für kurzfristig nachhaltig hält, sieht sie in ihm aber ein klares Anzeichen für eine allmähliche Verbesserung der marktseitigen Rahmenbedingungen.

Profitables 2003 angestrebt Nach dem positiven 1. Quartal strebt die Gesellschaft nicht nur ein insgesamt profitables 2003 mit leichtem Umsatzwachstum an, sondern sieht die Nachhaltigkeit der Effizienzverbesserung als höchste Priorität. In diesem Zusammenhang wird unverändert angestrebt, auch für jedes einzelne Quartal mindestens Break-even und einen neutralen Cash-flow zu erreichen.

Ende der Ad-hoc-Mitteilung (c)DGAP 13.05.2003

super ! ich bleib dabei !