US-Konjunktur, Quartalsergebnisse u. die Auswirkungen auf asiatische Aktien - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[Benjamin_2]

Profit outlook steady for now
Cautious estimates may provide more upside `surprises`

William Hanley, Financial Post

Friday, June 20, 2003

There`s still about three weeks till the second-quarter earnings season swings into action, a rite of summer somewhat less anticipated by the citizenry than lazy evenings on the porch or tranquil weekends at the cottage, yet something else for traders to look forward to after the drama of next week`s Federal Reserve policy meeting.

Nevertheless, Wall Street this week is possibly giving investors a sneak preview of the action to come as the second-quarter results of a clutch of securities firms are released. Yesterday, Lehman Brothers Holdings easily beat analysts` expectations. On Wednesday, Bear Stearns also beat the consensus estimate handily while Morgan Stanley fell well short.

That analysts were so far off the mark in throwing their estimate darts at the earnings of the firms down the Street strikes us as odd. But we`re assured that the volatile nature of the securities business makes it difficult for analysts to come up with estimates that are accurate, so they tend to be conservative and end up behind the curve.

Indeed, says Charles Hill, director of research at Thomson First Call in Boston and "Mr. Earnings" to the Street, both analysts and companies have tended to be conservative, erring on the side of judging the glass half-empty, after what they`ve been through the past few years. How else to explain the outsized 6.2-percentage-point gap between consensus estimates for the S&P 500 companies in the first quarter and the actual results, which came in at 11.7% growth?

Estimates tend to undershoot the results, but this gap full of individual earnings "surprises" was almost unprecedented.

While Hill doesn`t expect that much of an overshoot for the second-quarter results due to start coming in around July 10, he sees earnings the usual one to three percentage points above the S&P 500 consensus estimate of 6.1%, even though we are into the earnings warning season that precedes the results themselves.

Those looking for encouragement in First Call`s numbers will note that estimates for the second quarter have stabilized, then risen ever so slightly in recent weeks, indicating to Hill that the estimates will remain firm.

And while the estimates for the third quarter have also stabilized and look firm -- another reason for stock investors to be somewhat encouraged -- the test will come with the guidance accompanying the second-quarter results. Hill, looking at an economy that is still not looking much better to him in the second half, wonders if companies might simply be delaying the bad news because they themselves are having trouble figuring out what`s going to unfold.

And yet the pre-announcements have so far in the main been somewhat less negative than usual, which is also reason for hope.

The estimate for the third quarter is for earnings growth of 12.7% and for the fourth quarter, 21.2%, both of which Hill says look firm for now.

Investors and the market are discounting that growth in today`s stock prices. Estimates for the next year`s S&P 500 profits put the forward price/earnings ratio at about 18:1, which is seen as fairly valued by most market observers. Those traders and investors who have looked at forward estimates over the past months and believed in the reliability of those estimates have prospered in the broad spring rally.

What gives some people pause is the forward PE ratios that the earnings estimates and current prices imply for the technology sector, which has been leading the rally. The S&P 500 tech sub-index, which contains the big names in the sector, is trading at about 33 times those forward estimates.

That seems a rich valuation. But the earnings estimates for technology stocks have been holding up, indicating that so far the results should come in slightly better than the estimates. As long as the targets are being met and as long as investors know they are paying $33 now for $1 of future earnings in a volatile and vulnerable sector, then we can say good luck to all involved.

[Benjamin_2]

SIA cuts IC outlook in `03 and `04 despite Asia growth

By Mark LaPedus , Semiconductor Business News
Jun 11, 2003 (2:36 PM)


SAN JOSE, Calif. -- Despite a surge in IC demand from Asia-Pacific, the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) on Wednesday (June 11) lowered its chip forecasts for 2003 and 2004, but was slightly more upbeat than previously expected for 2005 and 2006.

The San Jose-based trade group projected worldwide semiconductor sales would increase 10.1 percent to $154.9 billion in 2003, 16.8 percent to $180.9 billion in 2004, 5.8 percent to $191.5 billion in 2005, and 7 percent to $204.9 billion in 2006.

The compound annual growth rate for the IC industry will hit 9.8 percent for the period from 2003 through 2006, according to the SIA.

This represents the latest in a range of falling forecasts for the SIA. In June of 2002, the SIA originally projected the worldwide semiconductor industry will grow by 23.2 percent in 2003 and 20.9 percent in 2004 (see June 5, 2002 story ).

Then, warning of a slower growth rate for the IC industry, the SIA last November lowered its chip forecast, saying the worldwide semiconductor market will increase by 19.8 percent in 2003. It also projected 21.7 percent growth for 2004, but dropped hints the IC industry would experience another major downturn in 2005.

But by April of 2003, the SIA ended up revising down the forecast. “Our forecast was 19% but due to geopolitical impact we see 10-to-15% now,” said George Scalise, president of the SIA, in April (see April 4 story ).

Scalise narrowed the forecast to a modest 10.1 percent for 2003, but painted a rosy picture in 2004. "In 2004, the growth is led by a strong increase in memory, including a 43 percent jump in DRAM and a 25 percent increase in flash, and supported by double digit growth in other product sectors," he said.

"The recovery is broad based across computer, consumer and communications applications as they all continue to be drivers for the industry,” he said. “The forecast contemplates a return to higher IT spending levels and the emergence of multi-function products such as smart phones."

But still, the dynamics are changing in the semiconductor industry. "Semiconductor consumption is forecast to continue a migration from the Americas to Asia Pacific, reflecting the outsourcing of electronic equipment manufacturing, including component sourcing and design services, to the region," he noted.

In terms of regions, Asia-Pacific is the largest chip market in 2003, followed by Japan, Europe, and the Americas.

The Americas market will decline 2.1 percent to $30.6 billion in 2003, and then grow 15.7 percent to $35.4 billion in 2004. In 2005, the SIA predicts that market to remain nearly flat with a slight decline of .09 percent to $35.1 billion, and then resume growth of 8.8 percent in 2006 to $38.24 billion.

Europe will grow 11.8 percent in 2003 to $31.1 billion, 13.6 percent to $35.3 billion in 2004, 4.7 percent to $36.9 billion in 2005, and 6.1 percent to $39.2 billion in 2006.

The Japanese market will grow 17.5 percent to $35.8 billion in 2003, increase 14.1 percent to $41.9 billion in 2004, 6.5 percent to $43.5 billion in 2005, and 4.9 percent in 2006 to $45.6 billion.

Of all the semiconductor regions, the Asia-Pacific region will experience the strongest growth in the next few years. It is forecast to grow 12.1 percent to $57.3 billion in 2003, 20.9 percent to $69.3 billion in 2004, and 9.4 percent to $75.8 billion in 2005. In 2006, Asia Pacific will report growth of 7.9 percent to $81.8 billion.