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    Öl um Falkland >Zukunftsinvestition? FIH PLC ehemals Falkland Islands Holding (Seite 43)

    eröffnet am 18.08.04 10:22:24 von
    neuester Beitrag 16.05.24 11:07:50 von
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      schrieb am 10.07.08 12:35:05
      Beitrag Nr. 597 ()
      Hallo

      Weiss jemand den aktuellen Stand der Bohrungen? Fogl hat ja wieder einiges an Boden verloren :(

      Gibt es baldige Hoffnung auf eine mächtigen Ölfund??

      Danke für Eure Infos!
      Avatar
      schrieb am 10.07.08 12:30:27
      Beitrag Nr. 596 ()
      Hallo Zusammen

      Weiss jemand einen aktuellen Stand der Bohrungen? Die Fogl Aktie hat ja wieder mächtig an Boden verloren :confused:

      Danke Euch für Eure Infos!
      Avatar
      schrieb am 18.03.08 17:40:53
      Beitrag Nr. 595 ()
      A crude yardstick

      Created:
      18 March 2008
      Written by:
      Daniel O'Sullivan

      It's not easy to put a conventional valuation on the Falklands prospectors, such as a multiple of forecast earnings or net present value, because they are at such an early stage. Indeed, between them they're yet to even sink a well. However, a 'quick and dirty' method of assessing valuation is to divide enterprise value (EV- market cap plus debt minus cash) by a so-called 'P50' estimate of the number of barrels of oil that could potentially gush out from their prospects. This tells investors what value is being put on each notional barrel of oil that an explorer may eventually produce.

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      For each of the three companies with published P50 estimates the value being put on a notional barrel is just pennies (see table). On first sight, that looks measly when a real barrel of the black stuff fetches $100 plus. However, this massive discount is justified because these companies still have everything to prove in terms of turning the sub-surface structures they claim to have identified into actual oil reservoirs capable of commercial production. Moreover, there is also capital expenditure to consider.

      Nevertheless, our crude yardstick shows the market rates of Desire Petroleum's prospects as between three and six times more valuable than those of either Falklands Oil & Gas or Rockhopper. The range of valuations attributed to Desire's notional barrels reflects the possibility that it's farm-in partner could take a share of anything between 0 and 50 per cent of future production. In exchange for handing over a slice of production to a farm-in partner, explorers benefit by sharing drilling risk. In the case of Falklands Oil & Gas, our EV/mboe calculation uses just 49 per cent of the 12bn barrels notionally recoverable from its prime drilling targets because BHP Billiton has a 51 per cent stake.

      Ratings divergence in the sector could be down to whether a company is operating in the shallower, cheaper-to-drill North Basin or the deeper, costlier-to-drill and more storm-tossed South Basin, as well as whether the company is fully-funded and has a farm-in partner on board. Desire ticks the right boxes on all three fronts, but does this justify such a wide discount for the other players? Rockhopper is as likely to benefit as Desire from the latter securing a rig, although it has yet to structure a farm-out. Falklands Oil & Gas, however, looks a bargain, as little credit seems to be given to its operational experience, financial fire-power and the considerable weight in rig negotiations brought by partner BHP Billiton.

      UK-quoted Falkland Island oil plays

      Company Ticker Price (p) 13/03/08 Price gain YTD % North/South basin Farm-in Worked-up prospects Total "P50" estimated recoverable oil (mboe) EV/attributable P50mboe (£) Funded for drilling
      Borders & Southern BOR 55.5 95 South No Not stated Not stated - No
      Falklands Oil & Gas FOGL 135 4 South Yes, BHP Billiton 51% 10 12,045 0.02 No
      Desire Petroleum DES 73.25 193 North Yes, details undisclosed 10 2,300 0.06 / 0.12 Yes
      Rockhopper Exploration RKH 84 68 North No 28 3,694 0.02 No


      http://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/MarketsAndSectors/Sector…


      :D:cool:
      Avatar
      schrieb am 18.03.08 17:39:53
      Beitrag Nr. 594 ()
      Rigging the Falklands oil race

      Created:
      18 March 2008
      Written by:
      Daniel O'Sullivan

      Shares in Aim-quoted Desire Petroleum took off recently on news that it has recruited a farm-in partner to help fund the considerable cost of mobilising a drilling rig to explore three oil prospects offshore of the Falkland Islands. Shares in fellow Falklands explorers Rockhopper Exploration and Borders & Southern Petroleum also rose strongly, on hopes that all will benefit from having a rig in the remote South Atlantic region. But the reality is not that simple.

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      Desire has not yet named its partner. Non-executive director Stephen Phipps says this will follow Falkland Islands government approval of the deal, and he will not confirm market gossip that the incomer is privately-held London-based oil trading company Arcadia Petroleum. If Arcadia is the partner, its shared ownership with offshore drilling specialist Seadrill may have sealed the deal. Rig rig mobilisation is the major hurdle facing any company exploring offshore of the Falklands.

      That's because any drilling operator diverting a rig to the islands would require considerable recompense due to time lost on the long voyage south when the rig could otherwise be earning money for its owner drilling prospects closer to home. And current sky-high rig rates due to a shortage of kit and frenetic drilling activity make the costs even greater. So pooling drilling requirements to create an economically-viable drilling campaign is seen as the solution. Desire did nothing to dispel this impression with a press release noting that "there is now the potential to hire a rig for a minimum six-well drilling programme, thus defraying mobilisation costs for all parties". Desire's £20m cash gives it sufficient funding for for two wells, its new partner is prepared to fund two wells, and in addition there are the two wells that Australian natural resources behemoth BHP Billiton contracted to fund when it agreed to partner Aim-quoted Falklands Oil & Gas (FOGL) last year.

      It all sounds good on paper, and indeed all the Falklands explorers named above say they are prepared to work together on rig-sharing if the eventuality arises. That is a big if, however, with FOGL looking the likeliest party pooper. While rig-sharing with Falklands peers is likely, should BHP secure a unit for any meaningful length of time, Tim Bushell, chief executive of FOGL, says such a contract is only one possibility.

      Another possibility being considered in earnest by BHP is snagging a rig for just the briefest of stopovers en route from an already-scheduled location changeover between West Africa and Brazil, or vice versa. Such a deal would only be possible due to BHP's heavyweight contacts, negotiating strength and cash-rich persuasiveness. The resultant window would allow no more than a couple of wells to be drilled just for BHP/FOGL, with other operators seeing no benefit.

      Mr Phipps admits BHP/FOGL might well go it alone. "I don't think that they need us as much as we would rather need them!" he says. But both he and Rockhopper managing director Sam Moody point out that it might yet be BHP/FOGL left out in the cold rig-wise. Both Desire and Rockhopper are exploring in the basin to the north of the islands, which is shallower and calmer than the southern basin that BHP/FOGL and Borders & Southern are in. As such, the northern operators could get by with a lower-specification and cheaper rig - 'third generation' as opposed to 'fifth generation' semi-submersible. If they locate one of these on a viable contract, they will go ahead on their own.Whatever happens, all parties agree that offshore drilling should finally be underway by the beginning of 2009, if not earlier. This gives time for Borders & Southern to join the drilling party if a consortium solution emerges. Having just completed seismic surveys, chief executive Howard Obee says promising prospects should be identified by summer.

      Should any of these companies actually strike oil, the share price uplift would be immense. Mr Bushell says if just one of his 10 worked-up prospects - selected from hundreds of promising leads - comes in as a 500m barrel discovery, then presuming a flat oil price of $50 per barrel, FOGL would be worth £10 per share. Using the same oil price, Mr Moody believes that the net present value of a 100m barrel discovery on his licences is around $1bn. Splitting that £500m-equivalent among Rockhopper shareholders equals some £6.60 per share, although, by the time of drilling its share may have been diluted through a farm-in. It looks like there are some very exciting times ahead for this band of oil-exploration companies.



      http://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/MarketsAndSectors/Sector…
      Avatar
      schrieb am 13.03.08 19:49:04
      Beitrag Nr. 593 ()
      Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.576.388 von Andrija am 07.03.08 11:01:39Ich habe gut 1/3 meines Depots in Falkland.

      Meinst du nicht, dass dies eine ziemlich gefährliche Aufteilung ist.:confused:

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      schrieb am 10.03.08 14:03:35
      Beitrag Nr. 592 ()
      The Falklands: Will there be oil?

      By Ben Bland
      Last Updated: 11:45am GMT 10/03/2008

      Cynics may still scoff at talk of oil being found in the Falkland Islands but the share prices of the four Falkland oil prospectors listed on Aim have surged in recent weeks as retail investors whipped themselves up into something of a frenzy.

      The catalyst was the news that Desire Petroleum has reached a 'farm-in' agreement with a "significant" yet unnamed party, which could lead to two exploration wells being drilled in its acreage north of the Falkland Islands.

      The potential drilling partner is rumoured to be Arcadia Petroleum, a London based oil trading group that has recently moved into exploration and production. Arcadia is partly owned by John Fredriksen, the Norwegian-Cypriot shipping tycoon who controls a number of oil services companies.

      Coming just months after Falkland Oil and Gas's agreement with natural resources giant BHP Billiton, it raised expectations that exploratory drilling could soon be under-way.

      The reason for the excitement is that the prospectors - Desire, Rockhopper, Borders & Southern and Falkland Oil and Gas - believe there could be more than 14bn barrels of oil offshore of the islands. That is no trifling amount given that oil is trading at record levels, above $100 a barrel.

      However, there is no mistaking the fact that this is an incredibly high-risk exercise and some of the more enthusiastic investors appear to have got ahead of themselves. The Falklands government estimates that the chances of finding oil are only between 1-in-5 and 1-in-12.
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      "Some retail investors have got rather over-excited," explained Tony Alves, an oil analyst at KBC Peel Hunt, Falkland Oil and Gas's house broker. "You can't do a rational analysis because you have no idea of what probability of success to attach to these various ventures. But it's not just about finding oil, that's just step one. Then you need to be able to show you can produce it commercially and get on with it."

      In addition, the soaring global demand for rigs makes it unlikely that progress - even at this early stage - will be too rapid.

      Tim Bushell, chief executive of Falkland Oil and Gas, said he was hopeful that the he would begin drilling next year.

      The problem is not just the shortage of available rigs, it's the expense. The record oil price has also pushed the cost of oil services higher and it now costs up to £250,000 a day to rent a semi-submersible oil rig.

      The remote location of the Falklands Islands makes life even more difficult for the prospectors as they will have to foot the bill for the significant expense of transporting the rigs to and from the area.

      Analysts estimate that Falkland Oil and Gas and BHP's two well drilling programme will soak up around £45m. This isn't the first time that oil companies have tried to discover oil in the Falklands. In the late 1990s, a number of oil companies, including Royal Dutch Shell, drilled six wells in the North Falkland basin. Two of them showed positive traces but, with oil at just $15 a barrel, the companies decided that it was not worth their while continuing.

      Mr Bushell, who worked on Lasmo's abortive North Falklands drilling campaign in 1998, is hoping that he can get it right this time. "I'm looking at a completely different area and I believe the South is bigger and better," he explained.

      "If the next drilling round is not successful, they could drill again after revising their view," added Mike Summers, a councillor and spokesman for the Falkland Islands government. "I'm not sure it's s*** or bust yet."

      http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/…
      Avatar
      schrieb am 09.03.08 10:49:26
      Beitrag Nr. 591 ()
      Drilling for oil to start in Falkland Islands

      By Jasper Copping
      Last Updated: 12:55am GMT 09/03/2008

      The inhabitants of the Falkland Islands are preparing for a South Atlantic oil rush which they hope will make them among the richest people in the world.

      A fisherman moors a trawler in the Falklands
      The fishing industry has been the largest contributor to the economy of the Falkand Islands

      After 10 years of frustrating delays since oil fields containing up to 60 billion barrels of "black gold" were discovered off the islands, oil....


      http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2008/03…
      Avatar
      schrieb am 07.03.08 11:01:39
      Beitrag Nr. 590 ()
      Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.574.797 von Ngemelis am 07.03.08 08:20:10Hi Ngemelis,

      leider ist der Übernahmehunger nicht gestillt. Ich habe irgendwo in der Mitteilung oder Präsentation gelesen, dass das erst der Anfang einer Strategie sein soll. Diese Ankündigung kommt bei mir wie eine Drohung rüber.
      Als Strategie kann ich nur erkennen, dass der Vorstand noch seine Kumpels aus unterschiedlichen Branchen am Ölreichtum beteiliegen möchte. Da ich keiner seiner Buddys bin, wird er wohl leider auf mein Angebot nicht eingehen;). Alles andere ist aus meiner Sicht nicht plausibel. Was ich nur absolut nicht verstehe, dass die Aktionäre die Strategie mittragen. Ich habe auch noch nie eine Einladung zur HV gesehen, fragt sich wie das so abläuft!?
      7% finde ich eine gewaltige Verwässerung. Ich habe gut 1/3 meines Depots in Falkland. Wenn das so weitergeht, bin ich irgendwann sogar an den Bauchhändlern der Londoner Fußgängerzonen beteiligt. Für diese Art von Depotdiversifikation brauche ich kein Falkland Management, das kann ich alleine. Leider habe ich nicht so viel Geld um meinen Depotanteil am Ölertrag kontinuierlich zu erhöhen, um die Bauchladen-Strategie zu kompensieren.
      Weiter in FIH zu investieren heißt derzeit leider nur hoffen, dass die Ölbohrer schneller sind als die Dünnbrettbohrer im Vorstand. Ich hatte mir das deutlich anders vorgestellt.
      Grüße Andrija
      Avatar
      schrieb am 07.03.08 08:20:10
      Beitrag Nr. 589 ()
      Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.573.106 von Andrija am 06.03.08 21:34:58Hi Andrija,

      kann deinen Frust absolut verstehen. Bei der Portsmouth Uebernahme war ich auch so richtig pissed off. Die jetzige Uebernahme war ja eigentlich schon laenger geplant und angekuendigt. Nun Momart, eine Art Logistic comany!!!!... da muss man erst einmal drauf kommen.... :rolleyes:
      Ich bin zumindest froh, dass der Preis zum grossen Teil in Cash bezahlt wurde. Die Verwaesserung haelt sich also noch in Grenzen. Ich hatte schon etwas groesseres befuerchtet !
      Das soll natuerlich nicht heissen, dass ich diese Uebernahme nachvollziehen kann, bzw. befuerworte !

      Hoffen wir mal, dass der Uebernahmehunger erstmal gestillt ist

      Gruss
      Ngemelis
      Avatar
      schrieb am 06.03.08 21:34:58
      Beitrag Nr. 588 ()
      Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.569.824 von Andrija am 06.03.08 16:47:48Dear Chairman, dear Management Director,
      auch ich möchte mich gerne an Ihrer genialen Diversifikationstrategien mit dem Projekt „Cake for Oil“ beteiligen. Hierzu möchte ich gerne meine „Ein-Mann-Unternehmung“ „Gradma´s Cheesecake Ltd.“ gegen nur 5 Promille (Hicks) FIH-Aktien tauschen. Ich bringe Omas Kuchengeheimnis ein. Die Vorteile liegen auf der Hand:
      • Warum auf das eklige Öl warten, wenn man jetzt schon leckeren Käsekuchen essen kann? Da hat jeder Aktionär Verständnis für!
      • Solid Growth auf dem kaufkraftsstarken Berliner Markt – endlich ein Standbein in good old Germany
      • Dienstreisen in die pulsierende Berliner Hauptstadt – endlich mal weg und das auf Firmenkosten von den langweiligen Inseln
      • Deutliche Synergieeffekte - Gradma´s Cheesecake auf allen Ferrys, Cheesecake auf jeder Vernissage; auch ich halte einige FOGL-Aktien - wir generieren also auch hier hohe Synergieeffekte
      • Es werden nur 5 Promille FIH-Shares abgegeben – die Talfahrt des Kurses wird sich gegenüber dem Verschenken von 7% der Falkland-Island-Shares deutlich in Grenzen halten
      • Extreme Sicherheiten durch Financial Engineering of German-Arbeitsamt so called „Existenzgründungshilfe“
      Sollte meine Konzept nicht überzeugen, was mich bei der derzeitigen „Bauchladen-Strategie“ wundern würde, eröffne ich auch alternativ einen Burger-Shop-am Hafen für die hungrigen Ölmänner.
      Yours faithfully Andrija

      …mal im Ernst, glauben die eigentlich selber noch an einen signifikanten Ölfund wenn die Hütte schon im Vorfeld gnadenlos verramscht wird? Welche shareholder segnen denn diese Geschäftspolitk eigentlich auf dem General Meeting ab? Insbesondere alle Großaktionäre kaufen doch nicht wegen einer Dr. Oetker-Strategie sondern setzen voll aufs Öl! Bin fassungslos und auf :mad:180:mad:. Meine Prognose, der Kurs steht morgen zwischen 350 und 370 Pence.
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      Öl um Falkland >Zukunftsinvestition? FIH PLC ehemals Falkland Islands Holding