KORREKTUR - Wie geht es nächste Woche (10.-14.04.00) weiter? - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[germanasti]

Die letzten beiden Tage waren durch einen ordentlichen Aufschwung bei geringen Umsätzen geprägt. d.h. es gab viele Käufer und kaum Verkäufer. Kaum Verkäufer deshalb, weil diejenigen, die die Korrektur nicht mitmachen wollten, bereits vor 1-2 Wochen ausgestiegen sind.
Und jetzt? Geht es nächste Woche weiter aufwärts, werden auch die Großen wieder gezwungen sein zu kaufen, was einer weiteren Aufwärtsbeschleunigung gleich kommt. Folgt ein Störfeuer (egal woher) fehlen die Sammler.

Bislang wiederholt sich der letztjährige Chart wunderbar!
Der diesjährige Anstieg war fast doppelt so stark wie der letztjährige.
Die jetzige Korrektur deshalb auch genau doppelt so stark.
Letztes Jahr kurzfr. Kurserholung +10% in zwei Tagen. Dieses Jahr +20% in zwei Tagen.
Danach 4 Tage seitwärts und im Anschluß 12% abwärts.
Duplizität der Ereignisse?

Die (große) Änderung ist, das letztes jahr alles einen Monat früher begann. Während der Zeit der Ertragszahlen ist die Nasdag ordentlich an einem Stück gestiegen und dann sehr schnell runter! Vielleicht lassen wir dieses Mal die zweite Abwärtszacke aus und gehen dann mit der Dritten gleich knapp 30% runter.

Die Stimmung soll im letzten Jahr gleich euphorisch gewesen sein. Angeblich soll fast niemand mehr an einen weiteren Abschwung geglaubt haben und es kam doch ganz anders.
Das kann ich leider nicht bestätigten, den letztes Jahr zu dieser Zeit kannte ich Börse nur vom Hörensagen.

Ich warte ab. Zur Hälfte bin ich noch investiert. Sollte es 3 Tage seitwärts gehen verkaufe ich nochmal und lege mir Puts zu. Kommt alles ganz anders habe ich Pech gehabt und auch keine Vorlage (letztjährigen Chart) mehr.

[edwood]

Korrektur?!
Ich denke, daß bei einer kleinsten Abwärtsbewegung die Bombe platzt.
Die Nerven liegen einfach blank (auch meine)!
Damit ich etwas ruhiger schlafen kann, habe ich mir von GS den 558175
Basiswert 5000(!) ins Depot gelegt.
Hat noch jemand zur Korrektur eine Meinung?

edwood

[Bülent]

JA ! Sie wird kommen und zwar gewaltig !!
Dieser Kapitalismus ist ehrlich gesagt wunderbar zu beobachten.
Was würde es ändern, wenn du alles verlierst ?? Leben mußt
du auf dieser Erde trotzdem, auch ohne Reichtum !!
( War nur ein Scherz ! Du alter Zocker )

[Markus10]

Wenn sich diese Woche wiederholt verkauf ich alles und leiste mir einen guten Psychiater

[Brem]

Na ich weiß nicht. Es ist ja wohl noch Geld
vorhanden das investiert werden möchte. Die
warten nun alle in welche Richtung es geht.
Wenn es Seitwärts bis leicht steigent weiter-
geht dann werden auch viel andere wieder
aufspringen. Vielleicht geht es dann auch
sehr schnell nach oben um dann wieder stark zu
fallen. Bis zur Hype im Herbst stehen wir IMHO
auf derzeitigen Level. Vielleicht 20% nach
unten oder oben... Mag sein, daß es schon im
Sommer aufwäts geht. 1999 haben Nokia und Sun
und einige andere Werte im Juni den Tiefpunkt
gehabt. Dann noch eine delle im August und
es ging auswärts. Der NM kam dann etwas 2 Monate
später aber gewaltig. In diesem Jahr könnte sich
alles noch 2 Monate früher abspielen. Denkt an
Anfang Januar und jetzt. Aber wie immer:
Alles Spekulationen

gruß brem

[k.j.]

Ich denke auch , daß bei der nächsten kleinen Schwäche die
meisten die letzte Korrekur noch vor Augen haben werden und
dann aussreigen werden . Dann hätte sich auch , wie in den Jahren
davor , charttechnisch eine doppelte Fahne gebildet , die ja
dann auch auf eineren längeren Abwärtstrend schließen läßst.

[germanasti]

Heute wäre der erste Tag der Seitwärtsbewegung, wenn es den wirklich so kommen sollte...

[AxelM]

Offensichtlich ist nur den wenigsten hier klar, wie nahe wir letzten Dienstag am Abgrund standen.

Lest Euch mal folgenden Artikel durch:
http://nypostonline.com/business/2250.htm

Weitere Infos gibt`s unter www.fiendbear.com

Mal sehen, ob Ihr dann immer noch Aktien besitzen wollt?

[django]

Klar, nur welche?....


mfG

[django]

Hier der Artikel:


SOMETHING happened at around 1 p.m. our time
yesterday that pulled the stock market back from the
edge of the cliff.

Traders say it was almost like divine intervention. One
minute the Nasdaq was down 11 percent -- say it out
loud, "Eleven percent in one day" -- and then it
suddenly rallied several hundred points in the matter of
an hour.

The Dow followed suit. Down 500 points around
mid-day, the blue chip index`s decline -- along with the
horrible showing of over-the-counter stocks -- was
destined to make yesterday`s market an unqualified
disaster for investors and the country.

Then, traders said, someone started buying large
amounts of stock index futures contracts through two
major brokerage firms -- Goldman Sachs and Merrill
Lynch. These transactions are usually done on the QT
so we don`t really know how many of these contracts
were purchased.

And unless the brokers tell, there is no way of knowing
which of their clients were making the purchases.
Goldman wouldn`t comment on this and Merrill did not
return a call for comment.

But traders said enough were bought to catch
everyone`s attention. In fact, the buyers seemed to
want people to know they had an appetite for stocks.

Then the market rebounded.

It didn`t go all the way back. At the end of the day the
Dow Jones index had still lost lost 56 points or half a
percent on the day. And the Nasdaq lost another 74
points, or the equivalent of a 1.77 percent drop.
Yesterday`s loss by over-the-counter stocks nearly put
the Nasdaq index back to ground zero for the year --
in two days all but 2 percent of its gain for the year was
gone.

It was real nice of Goldman and Merrill to stick their
necks out like that. In fact, it was downright
uncharacteristic for Wall Street outfits to put the
thought of possible losses aside for the greater good.

Because of the purely unselfish nature of what went on,
traders are naturally suspicious. Hell, so am I.

"I think some one or more persons saved the market
today. There was a suspicious urge to buy stocks at an
opportune time," says one trader. "Why drive the Dow
up 350 points in a half hour? That`s never serious
buying. That`s someone trying to establish prices," he
adds.

I`m especially suspicious when the market suddenly
rebounds at nearly the very same moment that a
member of the Clinton administration -- economic
advisor Gene Sperling -- is on TV telling investors not
to worry.

And there`s the obvious connection between Goldman
Sachs and the administration, the Wall Street firm
having given Robert Rubin to the Clinton administration
as its Treasury Secretary.

Plus, what better way to make investors not worry than
by having the stock market recover a lot of the ground
it had just lost. That gesture almost makes a guy want
to buy some stock -- bottom fish, if you are into
sporting analogies.

I`m not saying that government intervention in a
collapsing market is wrong. In fact -- except for the
obvious contradictions with the free-market system -- it
is politically and socially a very right thing to do.

I`ve written about this before. And I`ve mentioned that
Washington has had a secretive group call the Working
Group on Financial Markets, made up of investment
industry and government people, that would be in just
the right position to rescue the market.

Informally the folks on Wall Street call this the "Plunge
Protection Team." In February 1997, the Washington
Post did a piece on this team, just in case you don`t
believe it exists.

And while I can`t swear that Goldman and Merrill are
captains of that team, they sure acted like it yesterday.

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Ich sehe da kein Problem. Die Märkte stehen zu hoch, danz klar, aber ein crash zerschlägt mehr Porzellan, als es der Vernunft der Aktienbewertungen hilft. Daß die nächsten Monate eine Verschnaufpause, vielleicht sogar eine längere kontinuierliche Abwärtsbewegung folgen muß ist wohl jedem klar, der schon länger als 3 Monate dabei ist. Daß im aktuellen wirtschaftlichen Umfeld die Indizes in einem Jahr deutlich höher als jetzt stehen werden ist auch wahrscheinlich, genauso, wie daß mit Sicht auf etwa 5 Jahre nur knapp 5-10% der heute gefeierten Börsenstars der neuen Märkte überleben werden.
Der Markt wirds richten, die einzigen, die auf der Strecke bleiben sind die, die mit >100% investiert sind und zu wenig wirtschaftliches Verständnis dafür haben, daß reine Phantasie keinen realen marktwirtschaftlichen Wert hat und somit nur Strohfeuer erzeugt. Aber diese brennen zwar kurz, dafür aber besonders hell.

mfG

[AxelM]

Zum ach so tollen wirtschaftlichen Umfeld hab ich auch noch was:

TURNING POINT

The tide of monetary history is moving against the United States. For almost a century government has had its way with money. That chapter is now on the last page. With their monopoly on money our government has flooded the world with dollars and poured jet fuel to credit growth until it changed the way we think about savings, prudence and spending. Government ineptitude makes astute management of their vast monetary responsibility out of the question. Over time the dollar has lost more than 90% of its purchasing power. The current epidemic of consumer borrowing, margin debt, financial leveraging, derivative volume, government borrowing and corporate debt give testimony to the outcome of expansionary policies encouraged by the government.

We are now building to the climax of our loose monetary policies. We are at the point where stopping money and credit creation is too painful to endure while continuing to turbo charge credit growth promises an even worse outcome. In 1921, the great Austrian economist Ludwig von Mises, predicted that Russian communism would come apart at the seams because of built-in economic problems such as lack of pricing which doomed the system. Seventy years later he was proven correct. More importantly, around the same time Mises began to warn that when a country expands credit (like the U.S. today), the outcome will always be disastrous. Just as did Russia, we too are going to come apart at the seams.

Mises wrote, "Expansion of credit does lead to a boom at first, it is true, but sooner or later this boom is bound to crash and bring about a new depression. Only apparent and temporary relief can be won by tricks of banking and currency. In the long run they must land the nation in profounder catastrophe. For the damage such methods inflict on national well-being is all the heavier, the longer people have managed to deceive themselves with the illusion of prosperity which the continuous creation of credit has conjured up."

CREDIT CANCER

Credit makes people overinvest and malinvest. It encourages speculation and overconsumption and causes the boom and bust cycle. Today’s credit excesses have caused a hyperinflation of asset values. The continuous rise in equities has caused people to trust their money to the stock market as never before. The valuations are so great and the country’s money so committed to stocks that a bust will devastate the wealth of America and the ensuing credit contraction will send consumers and businesses to the brink of financial extinction.

In the mind of Washington and Wall Street this can’t be allowed to happen. The boom must be extended. Mises foremost student and a great economist in his own right, Murray Rothbard, explains how it works. "Why do booms historically continue for several years? The answer is that as the boom begins to peter out from an injection of credit expansion, the banks inject a further dose. In short, the only way to avert the onset of the depression is to continue inflating money and credit. For only continual doses of new money on the credit market will keep the boom going and the new stages profitable. Furthermore, only ever increasing doses can step up the boom, can lower interest rates further, and expand the production structure, for as the prices rise, more and more money will be needed to perform the same amount of work. Once the credit expansion stops, the market ratios are re-established, and the seemingly glorious new investments turn out to be malinvestments, built on a foundation of sand. It is clear that prolonging the boom by ever larger doses of credit expansion will have only one result: to make the inevitably ensuing depression longer and more grueling."

UP TO THE EYEBALLS IN DEBT

A question remains about the degree of today’s credit excess. Is it truly one for the record books or not? Obviously, some credit is necessary for economic growth. Classical economics suggested that the amount of national savings was appropriate for credit use. Today credit stands at ten times available savings. Credit growth to GDP growth is two and a half times what it was in 1929. For every dollar now added to economic growth, there is five dollars of debt growth. New York Stock Exchange margin debt has soared to $265 billion, up from $180 billion just last November. Highly-leveraged derivatives exceed $100 trillion, most of which is credit. The economy is $9 trillion, total debt is $25 trillion. Debt grows over $2 trillion a year. Corporate borrowing was half a trillion with much of it used to buy back stocks and fatten employee stock options, or to speculate in stocks or to acquire or merge with other companies with an emphasis on raising stock prices.

Anecdotally, we know our neighbors have mortgages close to the value of their homes or have borrowed against their equity. We know that credit cards are plentiful, widely utilized and often maxed out. We know that banks are aggressive lenders and credit standards are relaxed. We know that attitudes towards borrowing have changed. We know we can finance virtually anything today from cosmetic surgery to winter vacations.

Our favorite practical economist, Dr. Kurt Richebacher, sees this as the greatest credit excess in history. He points out that credit far exceeds economic activity, with much of the credit going into stock purchases and other assets. He calls the stock bubble the biggest and worst of its kind in history.

BETWEEN A ROCK AND A HARD PLACE

Mr. Greenspan of the Federal Reserve referred to the stock market as a euphoric bubble all the way back in 1996, but little has been done to cool it off. Perhaps there was concern about causing a stock crash. The authorities want to postpone the time when people learn how far Washington and Wall Street have led them down the garden path. Few things will damage the economy more than the bursting of the stock bubble. Meanwhile, it takes greater and greater doses of money and credit to keep stock prices rising. There are limits to this credit creation and monetary expansion. At some point assets become so overvalued that nothing can hold them up. Then there’s another risk; price inflation. Even though the government seems to be cooking the books on the inflation rate, consumers can see prices rise for themselves until at some point they begin to rid themselves of money and buy things before prices rise again. When that happens you have hyperinflation. So you get a depression if they stop pumping and runaway inflation if they don’t, and when they try to offset one with the other you get both.

PIED PIPER

The unmistakable signpost of a stock mania and a sure prelude to a bust is the dogmatic certainty of the investment community that we are in a new era of endless prosperity. Brokerage house spokespersons often give assurance of a perpetual bull market. Individual investors have a similar faith. Why wouldn’t they? Gains in their mutual funds have been consistent and remarkable. It would take a highly-independent maverick to walk away from that. Unfortunately, the denial of anything bearish is a symptom of a market top. It is the unanimous one-sided opinions, the scorn of differing forecasts, the love of bullish reinforcement from the media and the feel-good certainty of future gains that has always preceded a march into the sea.

There is no escaping the consequences of our credit-induced boom. A depression is in the bag. When credit growth stops, it’s blood in the streets. Nevertheless, most investors feel certain they can get out of their stocks in a downturn without too much damage. But suppose investor sentiment were to completely switch. The bulls become bears and vica versa. Then you could not get out, liquidity would disappear and you would be trapped. The wealth of America would vanish on this change of investor sentiment. So if all your wealth can disappear on the whims of a crowd, you deserve no sympathy if you lose every penny. In terms of all the measuring devices and stock market gauges ever devised, this is a mania. Overstay your welcome at this revelry and you will find your pocket picked. As the economist Irving Fisher pointed out in 1932, "A stock market crash wipes out great masses of credit currency with unusual suddenness."

Those investors who have totally committed their funds to the stock market face a wipeout. Those who have an important share of their net worth or the liquid portion of their wealth in stocks are riding to the financial guillotine. Anyone on margin or using borrowed money to pursue these over-inflated assets faces financial extinction. These are the people who scorn bearish opinions and refuse to consider any sort of hedge or alternative. If you are one of those optimists who assumes you can deftly negotiate any reversal and get out in time, you are bucking history. If you don’t think a decline will ever be more than a temporary downdraft or buying opportunity, you ignore investment history because you want the fun to continue.

The enormity of the excesses promise to eradicate far more than stock values. The wealth of America can vanish in a fortnight. There will be no safe place to hide but in the Kingdom of Midas and the price of admittance will by then be dear.

LUCKY US - A TRADE DEFICIT

Nothing puts people to sleep like statistics and economic chatter about the trade deficit. In a 1970 book, Author Gordon L. Weil wrote, "A country cannot always spend more abroad than it receives from foreign countries. If it did so, it would soon go broke. A government might try, of course, to print more currency in hopes of using it to finance additional foreign purchases, but as soon as other nations found out that they were being paid with worthless ‘printing-press money,’ they would refuse to accept any more. Confidence is a fragile flower; it withers whenever there is the slightest change of temperature in the monetary atmosphere. A country must in the long run break even in its transactions with other countries or people will begin to doubt its ability to maintain the value of its money and its economic place in the world. Its government has to make sure, through the national economic policy, and in fact, through every other policy, ranging from trade through defense, that it is not a chronic debtor." That’s the way the world has always worked until recently.

Today’s credit boom enables consumers to send so many dollars overseas to buy goods that the difference between what we buy and what we sell puts us $365 billion in the red for one year. Imagine the inflation rate if that money stayed in the country and pursued domestic goods. But it doesn’t and once it’s overseas our major corporations borrow back a great deal of our trillion dollar total trade deficit to keep the stock market humming. That encourages people to spend all the more on foreign goods. It’s a perfect world for the greenback, Uncle Sam, Wall Street, foreign manufacturers and American consumers.

What upsets the apple cart has always been the loss of value of the offending currency. The more paper printed the less it’s worth. All those dollars make the level of U.S. interest rates crucial. Foreign holders of our money will revolt at a significant drop in interest rates. Too many dollars in the world removes the option of lowering interest rates without punishing the dollar. An important policy tool of the Federal Reserve is crippled. Now a recession would cause a sinking spell for the dollar, dramatically boost the cost of foreign goods, foster inflation and hurl the economy into steep decline, thus driving the dollar even lower. What we can expect soon is the dead opposite of what we have today. That’s a bear market, high inflation, impossibly high interest rates and a depression.

ACCIDENTS HAPPEN

Pride cometh before a fall. The Long-Term Capital fiasco revealed that a few hedge fund geniuses were able to leverage $4 billion to control $120 billion. The big boys on Wall Street bailed them out. These were supposedly the smartest guys in the history of finance, but they almost turned the Wall Street parade into a cattle stampede. Yes, rising interest rates will ultimately slow the economy, yes speculative excess can implode, credit can contract and the dollar can decline, but I’m guessing it will be ego that kills the bull. C.S. Lewis called pride the greatest sin. "Pride goeth before destruction," says the proverb.

Money breeds arrogance. The more money people make the more infallible they believe they are. Somewhere, someplace, a very important dude has pulled the trigger on a decision that was made out of self-importance and vanity. There are scores of egotistical decisions made by newly-anointed financial wizards. It is one of these prideful decisions that will backfire and cause the market to buckle. One nasty mistake will surface of such magnitude and stunning conceit that it will mark the beginning of the end. They will call it an accident or a scandal, but it will be no more than plain old lack of humility that capsizes a financial giant and starts the plunge down.

I want to stress the certainty of the outcome that we continuously warn about. The expansion of money and credit now appears to be close to its limit. There is no other outcome than a bear market. A bust must always follow a credit boom and losses will follow profits. It is the extent of credit excesses and highly leveraged stock valuations that give rise to the specter of gloom. Far more damage emanates from the collapse of a leveraged stock boom than an ordinary depression. As surely as night follows day, a crash will come and the magnitude of past credit folly insures a severe decline. Be prepared for events you have never seen or experienced before. This crash will change the landscape as profoundly as a plague or war. This is the big one.


Blake Joyner
[e-mail]
April 1, 2000

[AxelM]

Zum Thema "längere kontinuierliche Abwärtsbewegung":

The beginning and the end of a stock market bubble are not symmetrical because, at the formation of a stock market bubble, the volume is at a minimum; at the time when a stock market bubble bursts, the volume is at a maximum. Due to the maximum volume, the collapse of a stock market bubble will be pressurized into a very short time frame.

Aus Sky Blue Monthly (April 2000). Link für den kompletten Text findet man unter www.fiendbear.com.

[germanasti]

Morgen wäre es soweit.
Soll der jetztjährige Chart eingehalten werden, müsste morgen der große Einbruch Teil II Tag I folgen.

Wer hat eine Kristallkugel?

[germanasti]

Der Neue Markt liegt weiterhin "im Plan".
Sollte der letztjährige Chart weiter kopiert werden, müsste es die nächsten 1,5 bis 2 Wochen stetig bergab gehen.
Dann sollte eine kurzfristige deutlichere Erholung erfolgen.

Wie gesagt, so war es letztes Jahr.

[germanasti]

Ab jetzt handle ich auch nach dem, was ich schreibe...

[germanasti]

Bis Anfang/Mitte nächster Woche müssten wir knapp unter das letzte Tief sinken, dann wäre es für ca. 4 Wochen todlangweilig am Neuen Markt, bevor der große showdown bzw. showhigh vor dem Sommerausverkauf kommt.
(Wenn der letztjährige Chart eingehalten werden soll)

[germanasti]

5400-5500 P. im Nemax all