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Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.330.168 von SKGold am 19.06.08 09:32:58Guten Morgen Sascha,
da mir bei der gestrigen PFS für Northland die Umsatz- und Gewinnzahlen - speziell für das Hannukainen-Projekt - so komisch vorkamen und nun das Ergebnis auf offiziell zurück gezogen wird, gib mir bitte für die FS von Ridge Mining ein bisschen Zeit (muss gleich außer Haus - kann also etwas dauern).
Tommy
da mir bei der gestrigen PFS für Northland die Umsatz- und Gewinnzahlen - speziell für das Hannukainen-Projekt - so komisch vorkamen und nun das Ergebnis auf offiziell zurück gezogen wird, gib mir bitte für die FS von Ridge Mining ein bisschen Zeit (muss gleich außer Haus - kann also etwas dauern).
Tommy
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.330.138 von tommy-hl am 19.06.08 09:29:44Guten Morgen Thomas,
wie ist deine Meinung zu der Studie?
Gruß
SKGold
wie ist deine Meinung zu der Studie?
Gruß
SKGold
Die Machbarkeitsstudie von Ridge Mining ist da ...
19 June 2008
Ridge Mining Reports Results of Feasibility Study into Sheba's Ridge Nickel/PGM Project
Sheba's Ridge Feasibility Study
http://www.hemscott.com/servlet/HsPublic?context=ir.access&i…
19 June 2008
Ridge Mining Reports Results of Feasibility Study into Sheba's Ridge Nickel/PGM Project
Sheba's Ridge Feasibility Study
http://www.hemscott.com/servlet/HsPublic?context=ir.access&i…
Da hatte sich ein Fehler eingeschlichen in der PFS-Studie ...
Jun 19, 2008
Northland Resources Retracts Results of Preliminary Economic Assessment
While preparing to respond to investor feedback regarding the recently published Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) on its iron ore projects, the Company discovered an error in the financial model developed by its consulting engineers which may affect the revenue calculations in the PEA. The effects of the error on the conclusions of the study have not been fully determined.
The consulting engineers are presently reviewing and revising the model and when that has been completed a revised report will be published. Investors should therefore not rely on the results of the PEA published in Northland's press release dated June 17, 2008.
In light of this issue, the company has also cancelled the teleconference scheduled for 9am Pacific Time, 6pm Oslo Time and 5pm London, UK time to discuss the PEA. The call will be rescheduled after the revised report has been published.
ON BEHALF OF THE BOARD
Ralph Rushton
NORTHLAND RESOURCES INC.
Jun 19, 2008
Northland Resources Retracts Results of Preliminary Economic Assessment
While preparing to respond to investor feedback regarding the recently published Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) on its iron ore projects, the Company discovered an error in the financial model developed by its consulting engineers which may affect the revenue calculations in the PEA. The effects of the error on the conclusions of the study have not been fully determined.
The consulting engineers are presently reviewing and revising the model and when that has been completed a revised report will be published. Investors should therefore not rely on the results of the PEA published in Northland's press release dated June 17, 2008.
In light of this issue, the company has also cancelled the teleconference scheduled for 9am Pacific Time, 6pm Oslo Time and 5pm London, UK time to discuss the PEA. The call will be rescheduled after the revised report has been published.
ON BEHALF OF THE BOARD
Ralph Rushton
NORTHLAND RESOURCES INC.
Hier ein interessanter Artikel von Chris Nelder von Wealth Daily, den ich gerade bekommen habe:
Oil
The volatility in the oil markets has increased quite dramatically in the second quarter, where a $5 to $11 swing in the price over a single day is now becoming more the norm than a rarity.
As I discussed in my piece two weeks ago ("It Takes Two To Contango"), we should expect to see such volatility increase, as the reality of the supply and demand balance really sinks in, and the market seeks to find the new, proper value for oil.
A chorus of analysts have popped up in recent days to claim that oil prices are in a speculative bubble, and their fervor only increased when oil hit a new record just shy of a $140 on Monday.
My favorite piece was an article in Fortune last week titled "Why oil prices will tank," which speculated, "It's even possible that, a few years hence, we could see a sustained period of plentiful oil supplies and low prices, meaning $50 or below." All I could do was shake my head in wonder as the author carried on about how a "new abundance" would come from shale, tar sands, coal, and "an OPEC desperate to regain market share."
If that last bit didn't make you laugh out loud
, read it again.
Investor's Business Daily, another venerable financial publication, went just as badly awry in its article three weeks ago, "Peak Oil: An Idea Whose Time Is Up." I was aghast at the parade of wrong information and blatant ignorance in that one. I intend to debunk it formally, but it's going to take a whole ‘nother article to do that job.
So if you thought everybody was already on the same side of the trade in this seemingly endless bull run for oil, think again. Some of the most-read financial journalists in the country still don't understand what "peak oil" means, don't comprehend the numbers, don't understand the crucial differences between oil shale, tar sands and crude, and apparently, some even think oil is overvalued by nearly 3x!
For smart investors like you who do understand these things, though, all the confusion out there simply makes for a good trading environment. When the noise is all wrong, you buy, and when everybody comes around to the way you see it, you sell.
If you took my suggestion in my article two weeks ago, subtitled "Pullback in Oil is a Buying Opportunity," and bought the United States Oil Fund LP (AMEX: USO) that day, at the bottom if oil's most recent dip, you'd be up about 10% on that position now. Not bad for a two-week gain!
Oil prices continue to have an inflationary effect on everything, from food to gasoline to everyday products (thanks to transportation costs). We'll get into the food aspects in the next part of this series.
The next major cue on oil will come from a Saudi-hosted summit meeting of oil producers and consumers this coming Sunday. The kingdom is worried that instability in the markets and high prices will undermine the oil market and encourage alternative energy. King Abdullah has reportedly instructed his ministers to pursue any solution to skyrocketing oil prices.
It is expected that the Saudis will announce a 200,000 barrel per day increase in production starting in July. My bet is that even if they do announce it, it won't affect prices much, or for very long.
They may also decide to raise their discount on crude. That might actually assuage the markets for a while, because it would help restore the profitability of refiners, and should eventually bring down the price of gasoline and diesel.
But in a few weeks or months, even such measures would lose their impact as the markets realize that the world really has no ability to increase production from here. Saudi Arabia has announced that they only intend to add about 1 million barrels per day (mbpd) of production capacity through the end of 2009. That increase still seems highly unlikely to me, but just taking them at their word, they are currently producing about 9.45 mbpd out of a claimed capacity of 11.4 mbpd, with expectations to raise it to 12.5 mbpd, and after that, nada mas.
So while the world waits for the next Saudi announcement, just remember: it's just more short-term noise along the long-term signal of ever-higher oil prices.
The Dollar
The influence of the dollar on commodity prices, particularly oil, continues to be underestimated. I'll dispense with the charts this time, but my observation in the Q1 update, that oil prices moved opposite to the dollar, continues to hold. According to calculations by Bloomberg, the dollar as valued against the euro has moved in the opposite direction from oil 93% of the time this year.
That's a very strong correlation, and should not be overlooked when we hear the latest from Mr. Bernanke. He seems to have successfully jawboned the dollar into a stabler pattern since it crashed to the late-April low, but the recent rally now appears to be losing steam as the expectations of a rate hike in August start to look overblown.
Without a strong rebound in the dollar, which seems extremely unlikely given the Fed's current position somewhere between the rock of inflation and the hard place of recession, oil will have to remain at or above its current heights. So don't go running for the exits the next time you hear some "expert" saying that oil prices are going to crash—instead, buy on any weakness.
Gasoline and Diesel
Gasoline and diesel both shattered all previous records (even the inflation-adjusted ones) in Q2. The national average price of gasoline is now over $4 for the first time, and diesel is trading at the highest premium to gasoline in 15 years, 16% more than gasoline at $4.69.
Diesel is the world's most popular transportation fuel, and refiners simply haven't been able to make enough of it. Not only is it by far the preferred fuel in Europe, most of the rest of the world is currently experiencing shortages of it due to enormous demand and limited supply. China, for example, imported 34 times as much diesel in May as it did last year, partly in preparation for the Olympic Games. Across the Third World, diesel is increasingly being used to run generators as their grid power fails, due to shortages of natural gas and reduced hydropower.
By comparison, 43% of the world's gasoline is consumed in the U.S., where demand is falling as prices rise. Although the sticker shock of gas over $4 has been hard on Americans accustomed to cheap gasoline, we're still paying very low fuel prices compared to Europe and elsewhere in the industrialized world, where gasoline in the $8-12 range is the norm. As I have said before, we should really be grateful to the rest of the world for keeping our gas prices so low by not competing with us for it!
Here in California, a 20-gallon fillup now costs me about $90, and I have no doubt that my first $100 fillup is just around the corner. Believe me, I'm not looking forward to it, but also believe that investing wisely in oil is your best defense against those ever-increasing prices.
While some destruction of diesel demand will take place eventually as vehicles are switched over to run on natural gas, electricity, and other alternative fuels, those transitions will take years to complete. I expect the current imbalances between gasoline and diesel to remain firmly in place for quite some time.
Natural Gas
The trend in natural gas is unchanged from Q1: prices have beat a straight line upward all year, rising from $8.30 on January 10 to $12.95 today. This trend also shows no sign of slacking, for there is very little net excess capacity for gas production.
Consequently, 2008 has been a sweet year for natural gas producers, with some of my favorites delivering better than 60% returns so far.
Coal
Coal has was full of surprises in the second quarter. My Q1 observation that coal didn't have the signs you would expect from a growth industry was based in reality, but no sooner had I published that article than a massive spike in coal prices began.
In Q2, prices for domestic coal went through the roof.
Despite this performance, the EIA expects domestic coal consumption to be lackluster, posting less than 1% growth this year after only 2% growth last year, and a lousy 0.6% growth next year.
On the production side, EIA expects a 2.9% growth in production this year, and increasing inventories with coal consumers.
So if it wasn't domestic consumption, what drove prices up?
You guessed it: exports.
Exports of coal posted a sharp jump at the end of last year, and they are continuing to drive demand.
The primary region consuming all that exported coal is Europe, where a very limited and uncertain supply of natural gas has been driving up grid prices. The outlook for electricity in Europe is increasingly dim, and they're trying to make up the difference with coal. Flagging Australian coal exports to Europe, along with competition for supply with the emerging nations of the FSU, have really stretched the supply-demand equation.
Exports of coal from the U.S. to Europe jumped 19% from the third to the fourth quarters of last year, and were 52% higher at the end of 2007 than a year earlier.
Again, I do not see anything resolving the tension in this very tight market any time soon. It looks to me like another major bull run has begun for coal.
Electricity
The price spikes for natural gas and coal have translated directly to increasing prices for grid power. According to the 2008 Short Term Energy Outlook, June 2008, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects average U.S. residential electricity prices to increase by about 3.7% in 2008, and 3.6% in 2009.
The average rate of those historical price increases from 1997-2007 is 2.26%.
In other words, the EIA has just predicted that for the next two years, your bill is going to rise at a rate 63% higher than it has in the past!
For the communities who haven't been aggressively seeking to deploy as much wind and solar and geothermal generation as possible, it spells a long march to ever-higher prices.
But for solar and wind generators, this is great news, because it means that the breakeven point on their projects just got bumped up a couple of years. It's also great news for those who make solar and wind equipment, like the many companies we have recommended in the pages of Green Chip Stocks.
Don't Panic, Profit
As the fallout from rising energy costs, particularly fuel shortages in the Third World, starts to settle around us, it's causing a great deal of pain and unrest and confusion. People are starting to panic.
We understand their fear, but panic isn't helpful. What's important is to be able to understand the trends, play them wisely, and put yourself in the best position you can to weather the even harder days ahead.
Until next time,
Oil
The volatility in the oil markets has increased quite dramatically in the second quarter, where a $5 to $11 swing in the price over a single day is now becoming more the norm than a rarity.
As I discussed in my piece two weeks ago ("It Takes Two To Contango"), we should expect to see such volatility increase, as the reality of the supply and demand balance really sinks in, and the market seeks to find the new, proper value for oil.
A chorus of analysts have popped up in recent days to claim that oil prices are in a speculative bubble, and their fervor only increased when oil hit a new record just shy of a $140 on Monday.
My favorite piece was an article in Fortune last week titled "Why oil prices will tank," which speculated, "It's even possible that, a few years hence, we could see a sustained period of plentiful oil supplies and low prices, meaning $50 or below." All I could do was shake my head in wonder as the author carried on about how a "new abundance" would come from shale, tar sands, coal, and "an OPEC desperate to regain market share."
If that last bit didn't make you laugh out loud
, read it again. Investor's Business Daily, another venerable financial publication, went just as badly awry in its article three weeks ago, "Peak Oil: An Idea Whose Time Is Up." I was aghast at the parade of wrong information and blatant ignorance in that one. I intend to debunk it formally, but it's going to take a whole ‘nother article to do that job.
So if you thought everybody was already on the same side of the trade in this seemingly endless bull run for oil, think again. Some of the most-read financial journalists in the country still don't understand what "peak oil" means, don't comprehend the numbers, don't understand the crucial differences between oil shale, tar sands and crude, and apparently, some even think oil is overvalued by nearly 3x!
For smart investors like you who do understand these things, though, all the confusion out there simply makes for a good trading environment. When the noise is all wrong, you buy, and when everybody comes around to the way you see it, you sell.
If you took my suggestion in my article two weeks ago, subtitled "Pullback in Oil is a Buying Opportunity," and bought the United States Oil Fund LP (AMEX: USO) that day, at the bottom if oil's most recent dip, you'd be up about 10% on that position now. Not bad for a two-week gain!
Oil prices continue to have an inflationary effect on everything, from food to gasoline to everyday products (thanks to transportation costs). We'll get into the food aspects in the next part of this series.
The next major cue on oil will come from a Saudi-hosted summit meeting of oil producers and consumers this coming Sunday. The kingdom is worried that instability in the markets and high prices will undermine the oil market and encourage alternative energy. King Abdullah has reportedly instructed his ministers to pursue any solution to skyrocketing oil prices.
It is expected that the Saudis will announce a 200,000 barrel per day increase in production starting in July. My bet is that even if they do announce it, it won't affect prices much, or for very long.
They may also decide to raise their discount on crude. That might actually assuage the markets for a while, because it would help restore the profitability of refiners, and should eventually bring down the price of gasoline and diesel.
But in a few weeks or months, even such measures would lose their impact as the markets realize that the world really has no ability to increase production from here. Saudi Arabia has announced that they only intend to add about 1 million barrels per day (mbpd) of production capacity through the end of 2009. That increase still seems highly unlikely to me, but just taking them at their word, they are currently producing about 9.45 mbpd out of a claimed capacity of 11.4 mbpd, with expectations to raise it to 12.5 mbpd, and after that, nada mas.
So while the world waits for the next Saudi announcement, just remember: it's just more short-term noise along the long-term signal of ever-higher oil prices.
The Dollar
The influence of the dollar on commodity prices, particularly oil, continues to be underestimated. I'll dispense with the charts this time, but my observation in the Q1 update, that oil prices moved opposite to the dollar, continues to hold. According to calculations by Bloomberg, the dollar as valued against the euro has moved in the opposite direction from oil 93% of the time this year.
That's a very strong correlation, and should not be overlooked when we hear the latest from Mr. Bernanke. He seems to have successfully jawboned the dollar into a stabler pattern since it crashed to the late-April low, but the recent rally now appears to be losing steam as the expectations of a rate hike in August start to look overblown.
Without a strong rebound in the dollar, which seems extremely unlikely given the Fed's current position somewhere between the rock of inflation and the hard place of recession, oil will have to remain at or above its current heights. So don't go running for the exits the next time you hear some "expert" saying that oil prices are going to crash—instead, buy on any weakness.
Gasoline and Diesel
Gasoline and diesel both shattered all previous records (even the inflation-adjusted ones) in Q2. The national average price of gasoline is now over $4 for the first time, and diesel is trading at the highest premium to gasoline in 15 years, 16% more than gasoline at $4.69.
Diesel is the world's most popular transportation fuel, and refiners simply haven't been able to make enough of it. Not only is it by far the preferred fuel in Europe, most of the rest of the world is currently experiencing shortages of it due to enormous demand and limited supply. China, for example, imported 34 times as much diesel in May as it did last year, partly in preparation for the Olympic Games. Across the Third World, diesel is increasingly being used to run generators as their grid power fails, due to shortages of natural gas and reduced hydropower.
By comparison, 43% of the world's gasoline is consumed in the U.S., where demand is falling as prices rise. Although the sticker shock of gas over $4 has been hard on Americans accustomed to cheap gasoline, we're still paying very low fuel prices compared to Europe and elsewhere in the industrialized world, where gasoline in the $8-12 range is the norm. As I have said before, we should really be grateful to the rest of the world for keeping our gas prices so low by not competing with us for it!
Here in California, a 20-gallon fillup now costs me about $90, and I have no doubt that my first $100 fillup is just around the corner. Believe me, I'm not looking forward to it, but also believe that investing wisely in oil is your best defense against those ever-increasing prices.
While some destruction of diesel demand will take place eventually as vehicles are switched over to run on natural gas, electricity, and other alternative fuels, those transitions will take years to complete. I expect the current imbalances between gasoline and diesel to remain firmly in place for quite some time.
Natural Gas
The trend in natural gas is unchanged from Q1: prices have beat a straight line upward all year, rising from $8.30 on January 10 to $12.95 today. This trend also shows no sign of slacking, for there is very little net excess capacity for gas production.
Consequently, 2008 has been a sweet year for natural gas producers, with some of my favorites delivering better than 60% returns so far.
Coal
Coal has was full of surprises in the second quarter. My Q1 observation that coal didn't have the signs you would expect from a growth industry was based in reality, but no sooner had I published that article than a massive spike in coal prices began.
In Q2, prices for domestic coal went through the roof.
Despite this performance, the EIA expects domestic coal consumption to be lackluster, posting less than 1% growth this year after only 2% growth last year, and a lousy 0.6% growth next year.
On the production side, EIA expects a 2.9% growth in production this year, and increasing inventories with coal consumers.
So if it wasn't domestic consumption, what drove prices up?
You guessed it: exports.
Exports of coal posted a sharp jump at the end of last year, and they are continuing to drive demand.
The primary region consuming all that exported coal is Europe, where a very limited and uncertain supply of natural gas has been driving up grid prices. The outlook for electricity in Europe is increasingly dim, and they're trying to make up the difference with coal. Flagging Australian coal exports to Europe, along with competition for supply with the emerging nations of the FSU, have really stretched the supply-demand equation.
Exports of coal from the U.S. to Europe jumped 19% from the third to the fourth quarters of last year, and were 52% higher at the end of 2007 than a year earlier.
Again, I do not see anything resolving the tension in this very tight market any time soon. It looks to me like another major bull run has begun for coal.
Electricity
The price spikes for natural gas and coal have translated directly to increasing prices for grid power. According to the 2008 Short Term Energy Outlook, June 2008, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects average U.S. residential electricity prices to increase by about 3.7% in 2008, and 3.6% in 2009.
The average rate of those historical price increases from 1997-2007 is 2.26%.
In other words, the EIA has just predicted that for the next two years, your bill is going to rise at a rate 63% higher than it has in the past!
For the communities who haven't been aggressively seeking to deploy as much wind and solar and geothermal generation as possible, it spells a long march to ever-higher prices.
But for solar and wind generators, this is great news, because it means that the breakeven point on their projects just got bumped up a couple of years. It's also great news for those who make solar and wind equipment, like the many companies we have recommended in the pages of Green Chip Stocks.
Don't Panic, Profit
As the fallout from rising energy costs, particularly fuel shortages in the Third World, starts to settle around us, it's causing a great deal of pain and unrest and confusion. People are starting to panic.
We understand their fear, but panic isn't helpful. What's important is to be able to understand the trends, play them wisely, and put yourself in the best position you can to weather the even harder days ahead.
Until next time,
Trading Spotlight
Bin heute noch auf diesen Laden gestossen:
http://www.hyperdynamics.com/africa_operations.htm
Scheint noch etwas früh zu sein..
http://www.hyperdynamics.com/africa_operations.htm
Scheint noch etwas früh zu sein..
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.327.408 von TraderA am 18.06.08 19:21:31Bin auch noch nicht ganz im Bilde, aber eins ist Fakt, Antrim hat relativ viel Cash, und zwar 70 Mio, ---das ist die halbe MK von Otto
The Causeway appraisal and development program is funded through to first production expected in late 2009 given Antrim's working capital of $70 million, agreed terms for a $50-million pre-development working capital facility and proposed $150-million bank debt facility available upon approval of the field development plan
und: an Causeway hat Antrim 67%
http://www.antrimenergy.com/globalAct/ukOperations.html
Otto Energy acquired a 31.38 percent stake in Galoc Production Co (GPC) last December, with European trader Vitol VIT.UL holding the remaining 68.62 percent.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idUKMAN10639320080610
Hm
The Causeway appraisal and development program is funded through to first production expected in late 2009 given Antrim's working capital of $70 million, agreed terms for a $50-million pre-development working capital facility and proposed $150-million bank debt facility available upon approval of the field development plan
und: an Causeway hat Antrim 67%
http://www.antrimenergy.com/globalAct/ukOperations.html
Otto Energy acquired a 31.38 percent stake in Galoc Production Co (GPC) last December, with European trader Vitol VIT.UL holding the remaining 68.62 percent.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idUKMAN10639320080610
Hm
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.326.880 von XIO am 18.06.08 18:15:51Hört sich gut an
Antim Energy
Marketkap akt. rund 260Mio.€
aktuell 2000blpd
Prouktion geplant bis e2009 15000bpd
und e2010 25000bpd
nicht schlecht !
Da ich Otto Energy gut finde, vergleiche ich immer gerne.
Aktuell produziert Galloc14 rund 3000blpd für Otto
Steigerung bis 5700blpd geplant.
Dazu kommen in 2009 Türkei (Gas) umgerechnet etwa 500blpd und
SC50 mit geplant 7500blpd Ottoanteil macht in Summe
geplant bis e2009 rund 13500blpd
Ottos Marketkap aktuell 136Mio.€
Hm
Antim Energy
Marketkap akt. rund 260Mio.€
aktuell 2000blpd
Prouktion geplant bis e2009 15000bpd
und e2010 25000bpd
nicht schlecht !
Da ich Otto Energy gut finde, vergleiche ich immer gerne.
Aktuell produziert Galloc14 rund 3000blpd für Otto
Steigerung bis 5700blpd geplant.
Dazu kommen in 2009 Türkei (Gas) umgerechnet etwa 500blpd und
SC50 mit geplant 7500blpd Ottoanteil macht in Summe
geplant bis e2009 rund 13500blpd
Ottos Marketkap aktuell 136Mio.€
Hm
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.319.216 von XIO am 17.06.08 19:45:18Also Afren werde ich mir auch mal genauer anschauen. Macht einen interessanten Eindruck. Ist wie immer ein Zeitproblem, die ganzen Firmen auseinanderzunehmen.
Übrigens, Öl...ich erwarte die eine oder andere Überraschung zum Verfallstermin an den Rohstoffterminmärkten. Eventuell auch bei den Währungen. Halte einen deutlichen Preiseinbruch bei Öl nicht für ausgeschlossen, wenn die Marktteilnehmer ihre Positionen am Terminmarkt alle bezogen haben.
Aber nagelt mich nicht drauf fest. Ist ein reines Bauchgefühl. Allerdings hatten wir in der jüngeren Vergangenheit ähnliche Bewegungen, was Währungen und Commodities anbelangt.
MfG.
s.
Übrigens, Öl...ich erwarte die eine oder andere Überraschung zum Verfallstermin an den Rohstoffterminmärkten. Eventuell auch bei den Währungen. Halte einen deutlichen Preiseinbruch bei Öl nicht für ausgeschlossen, wenn die Marktteilnehmer ihre Positionen am Terminmarkt alle bezogen haben.
Aber nagelt mich nicht drauf fest. Ist ein reines Bauchgefühl. Allerdings hatten wir in der jüngeren Vergangenheit ähnliche Bewegungen, was Währungen und Commodities anbelangt.
MfG.
s.
http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/news/Stock%20News/168892…
gefällt mir immer noch und immer besser, werd ich wohl bald mal "zuschlagen"
gefällt mir immer noch und immer besser, werd ich wohl bald mal "zuschlagen"
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