PEAK-OIL - kein Traum sondern Realität? - 500 Beiträge pro Seite
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Feedback
Habe im Januar 2006 angefangen, Bücher zum Thema zu lesen und bin seitdem überzeugt, dass er kommt, wenn nicht schon vorbei ist.
Weil das Thema von extremer Bedeutung für
-Solar
-Aktienentwicklung allgemein
ist, will ich hier aktuelle Infos sammeln, so daß man sich schnell einen groben Übrblick verschaffen kann.
Konkreter anlaß ist da heute erschienene IEA-update, in dem die IEA nochmals weit von ihren ursprünglichen Einschätzungen zurücktritt!
Weil das Thema von extremer Bedeutung für
-Solar
-Aktienentwicklung allgemein
ist, will ich hier aktuelle Infos sammeln, so daß man sich schnell einen groben Übrblick verschaffen kann.
Konkreter anlaß ist da heute erschienene IEA-update, in dem die IEA nochmals weit von ihren ursprünglichen Einschätzungen zurücktritt!
Despite Slowing Oil Demand, IEA Sees Continued Market Tightness Over the Medium Term
See Related Publication or Event
01 July 2008 Madrid --- “Record prices in the oil market in recent months have become a threat to the global economy and social welfare of millions of people – some are calling it the third oil shock. While we have seen some weakening in demand in the OECD, supply constraints, refinery limitations and continued demand growth in key emerging markets will maintain pressure in the market over the medium term”, Nobuo Tanaka, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA) said today in Madrid at the launch of the IEA Medium-Term Oil Market Report (MTOMR). Speaking at a press conference at the World Petroleum Congress, Mr. Tanaka emphasized that market fundamentals were the main underlying factor behind high oil prices. “OPEC production is at record highs and non-OPEC producers are working at full throttle, but stocks show no unusual build. These factors demonstrate that it is mainly fundamentals pushing up the price,” he added.
The third issue of the IEA Medium-Term Oil Market Report analyses market developments to 2013, building on the short-term analysis of the monthly IEA Oil Market Report. The MTOMR offers a fresh appraisal of upstream and downstream projects worldwide, incorporating recent changes in demand dynamics. The report includes in-depth analyses of price formation, transport trends, non-OECD economies, non-OPEC production decline, project slippage, biofuels and a stronger emphasis on product supply bottlenecks. “We look closely at what investments are committed, which projects are underway, whether demand will continue to surge and where potential risks lie looking forward to 2013,” said Mr. Tanaka.
Supply
Supply growth deriving from a concentration of new project start-ups during 2008-2010, allied to weaker economic growth, sees potential spare capacity rise in excess of 4 mb/d. However, this expansion slows from 2011 onwards when global demand growth recovers, leading to a narrowing of spare capacity to minimal levels by 2013. Since the 2007 MTOMR, significant downward revisions have been made to both non-OPEC supplies and OPEC capacity forecasts. Project delays averaging 12 months, coupled with global average decline of 5.2% - up from 4% last year – are the factors behind these revisions. Over 3.5 mb/d of new production will be needed each year just to hold global production steady. “Our findings highlight again the need for sustained, and indeed, increased investment both upstream and downstream -- to assure that the market is adequately supplied,” stated Mr. Tanaka.
Biofuels
Although biofuels will add to supply growth, increasing from 1.35 mb/d in 2008 to 1.95 mb/d by 2013, announced capacity additions may be difficult to achieve given available feedstock and growing concerns due to rising food prices. “Biofuels have helped to diversify energy supply. They cannot be blamed for all of the increase in grain prices, even if they have had an impact. However, we remain cautious in regard to the future growth of 1st generation biofuels as there will be growing competition for feedstocks and we see increased difficulties to expansion of biofuels in some places,” said Mr. Tanaka.
Demand
Global demand for oil products will grow by an average of 1.6% per year to 2013, from 86.9 mb/d in 2008 to 94.1 mb/d. Contrary to supply trends, demand growth will be weakest in the first two years of the period, building as global GDP growth strengthens from 2010 on. “We continue to see a significant shift in demand away from the OECD countries,” Mr. Tanaka noted. “Developing countries will drive demand growth, their total consumption equalling that of mature economies by 2015.” Asia, the Middle East and Latin America will account for nearly 90% of demand growth over the five-year forecast period.
Refining
An anticipated 8.8 mb/d of crude distillation capacity will be added to the refinery system by 2013. These additions should cover supply increases over this period and help ease current refinery tightness, which limits the flexibility of the industry to meet the structurally-strong demand growth for middle distillate fuel. A doubling of costs and longer lead times for delivery of key upgrading units have led to greater uncertainty over project plans in the refining sector. New capacity additions are primarily in China, Asia and the Middle East. Additional investment is expected in upgrading capacity and desulphurisation units.
“This medium-term analysis sheds light on where the oil market is headed over the next five years. The better we understand current trends, the more we can do to ensure we have adequate oil supply at affordable prices,” Mr. Tanaka said.
See Related Publication or Event
01 July 2008 Madrid --- “Record prices in the oil market in recent months have become a threat to the global economy and social welfare of millions of people – some are calling it the third oil shock. While we have seen some weakening in demand in the OECD, supply constraints, refinery limitations and continued demand growth in key emerging markets will maintain pressure in the market over the medium term”, Nobuo Tanaka, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA) said today in Madrid at the launch of the IEA Medium-Term Oil Market Report (MTOMR). Speaking at a press conference at the World Petroleum Congress, Mr. Tanaka emphasized that market fundamentals were the main underlying factor behind high oil prices. “OPEC production is at record highs and non-OPEC producers are working at full throttle, but stocks show no unusual build. These factors demonstrate that it is mainly fundamentals pushing up the price,” he added.
The third issue of the IEA Medium-Term Oil Market Report analyses market developments to 2013, building on the short-term analysis of the monthly IEA Oil Market Report. The MTOMR offers a fresh appraisal of upstream and downstream projects worldwide, incorporating recent changes in demand dynamics. The report includes in-depth analyses of price formation, transport trends, non-OECD economies, non-OPEC production decline, project slippage, biofuels and a stronger emphasis on product supply bottlenecks. “We look closely at what investments are committed, which projects are underway, whether demand will continue to surge and where potential risks lie looking forward to 2013,” said Mr. Tanaka.
Supply
Supply growth deriving from a concentration of new project start-ups during 2008-2010, allied to weaker economic growth, sees potential spare capacity rise in excess of 4 mb/d. However, this expansion slows from 2011 onwards when global demand growth recovers, leading to a narrowing of spare capacity to minimal levels by 2013. Since the 2007 MTOMR, significant downward revisions have been made to both non-OPEC supplies and OPEC capacity forecasts. Project delays averaging 12 months, coupled with global average decline of 5.2% - up from 4% last year – are the factors behind these revisions. Over 3.5 mb/d of new production will be needed each year just to hold global production steady. “Our findings highlight again the need for sustained, and indeed, increased investment both upstream and downstream -- to assure that the market is adequately supplied,” stated Mr. Tanaka.
Biofuels
Although biofuels will add to supply growth, increasing from 1.35 mb/d in 2008 to 1.95 mb/d by 2013, announced capacity additions may be difficult to achieve given available feedstock and growing concerns due to rising food prices. “Biofuels have helped to diversify energy supply. They cannot be blamed for all of the increase in grain prices, even if they have had an impact. However, we remain cautious in regard to the future growth of 1st generation biofuels as there will be growing competition for feedstocks and we see increased difficulties to expansion of biofuels in some places,” said Mr. Tanaka.
Demand
Global demand for oil products will grow by an average of 1.6% per year to 2013, from 86.9 mb/d in 2008 to 94.1 mb/d. Contrary to supply trends, demand growth will be weakest in the first two years of the period, building as global GDP growth strengthens from 2010 on. “We continue to see a significant shift in demand away from the OECD countries,” Mr. Tanaka noted. “Developing countries will drive demand growth, their total consumption equalling that of mature economies by 2015.” Asia, the Middle East and Latin America will account for nearly 90% of demand growth over the five-year forecast period.
Refining
An anticipated 8.8 mb/d of crude distillation capacity will be added to the refinery system by 2013. These additions should cover supply increases over this period and help ease current refinery tightness, which limits the flexibility of the industry to meet the structurally-strong demand growth for middle distillate fuel. A doubling of costs and longer lead times for delivery of key upgrading units have led to greater uncertainty over project plans in the refining sector. New capacity additions are primarily in China, Asia and the Middle East. Additional investment is expected in upgrading capacity and desulphurisation units.
“This medium-term analysis sheds light on where the oil market is headed over the next five years. The better we understand current trends, the more we can do to ensure we have adequate oil supply at affordable prices,” Mr. Tanaka said.
Ein guter Kunpel von mir hat gesagt, dass er sich letztes Jahr sein letztes Auto mit Verbrennungsmotor in seinem Leben gekauft hat...
vielleicht hat er recht.
vielleicht hat er recht.
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.412.053 von meinolf67 am 01.07.08 13:58:08hallo meinolf, den thread gibt es schon, nämlich unter rohstoffe / brent crude / also Rohöl. Da gibt es drei ganz gute Threads die sich seit Jahren nur mit diesem Thema beschäftigen. Klink Dich doch einfach mit ein, sparst Dir einen haufen Arbeit. Steht alles schon drin.
Trading Spotlight
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.412.281 von uk0804 am 01.07.08 14:21:31danke, werde ich wahrscheinlich machen...
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.412.281 von uk0804 am 01.07.08 14:21:31habe mich für den mittleren Thread (150$) entschieden, weil dort die meiseten Seitenabrufe sind.
denkst du, das ist der richtige?
denkst du, das ist der richtige?
in dem Thread Öl 150 ...geht es sehr viel um Trading und Geld verdienen mit Optionsscheinen und Futures beim Ölpreis. Hat aber die meisten Aufrufe.
Der fundamental beste Thread in dem es mehr um das Thema Peak Oil mit allen wirtschaftlichen, ökologischen und sozialen, gesellschaftlichen , politischen Konsequenzen geht, ist der Thread mit dem Namen: Theoriereflexionen, da sind wirklich gute Leute dabei, die freuen sich wenn jemand ernsthaft mitdiskutieren will.
Es gibt auch noch eine Internetseite, die nennt sich peakoil forum.
Musst mal googeln, da steht alles zum Thema Peak Oil drin...
viele Grüße und auf eine sonnige Zukunft
Der fundamental beste Thread in dem es mehr um das Thema Peak Oil mit allen wirtschaftlichen, ökologischen und sozialen, gesellschaftlichen , politischen Konsequenzen geht, ist der Thread mit dem Namen: Theoriereflexionen, da sind wirklich gute Leute dabei, die freuen sich wenn jemand ernsthaft mitdiskutieren will.
Es gibt auch noch eine Internetseite, die nennt sich peakoil forum.
Musst mal googeln, da steht alles zum Thema Peak Oil drin...
viele Grüße und auf eine sonnige Zukunft
Der Krug geht solange zum Brunnen, bis der alle ist.
Die Börse übertreibt gerne in beide Richtungen und erst wenn alle Milchmädchen Ölwjudschurs in ihren Depots halten, wird der Markt sich regulieren.
Leider weiß man nie so genau, wann das sein wird.
Irgendwas scheint da auch noch im Busch zu sein, ich meine etwas militärisches in der Nähe der Ölquellen und das wird die Börsen wohl noch beschäftigen.
Die Börse übertreibt gerne in beide Richtungen und erst wenn alle Milchmädchen Ölwjudschurs in ihren Depots halten, wird der Markt sich regulieren.
Leider weiß man nie so genau, wann das sein wird.
Irgendwas scheint da auch noch im Busch zu sein, ich meine etwas militärisches in der Nähe der Ölquellen und das wird die Börsen wohl noch beschäftigen.
Ich mag den hier:
Thread: Die Zukunft des Ölpreises - Theoriereflexion
Da schreib ich auch mal hin und wieder.
Ansonsten ist das hier für mich die Seite zum Thema:
http://www.theoildrum.com/
Thread: Die Zukunft des Ölpreises - Theoriereflexion
Da schreib ich auch mal hin und wieder.
Ansonsten ist das hier für mich die Seite zum Thema:
http://www.theoildrum.com/
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