DAX-0,16 % EUR/USD+0,15 % Gold+0,27 % Öl (Brent)-0,91 %

K+S - der Vereinigungsthread (Seite 100)



Begriffe und/oder Benutzer

 

Wenn auf steigende Kurse bei K+S setzen,
dann werde ich ein Call bevorzugen. Z.Bsp. Call LS0XJY
Zitat von Macros: Scotia Capital Markets weist in einer Branchenstudie auf die schwierige Situation am Kalimarkt hin. Die Kalilagerbestände in Indien etwa seien derzeit viermal so hoch wie im vergangenen Jahr.


Die Aussage hat leider keinen grossen Informationsgehalt. Was heisst "viermal so hoch" in absoluten Zahlen? Weil...

... nur die interssieren wirklich. Statt 3,5 Tonnen jetzt 14 Tonnen macht den Kohl nicht fett. :look:
1 Antwort?Die Baumansicht ist in diesem Thread nicht möglich.
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 42.824.375 von sidomania am 29.02.12 11:14:59Warum legt man sich wohl ein volles Lager an ? weil man weis das es gebraucht wir und oder Teurer wird :eek:
Das mit den Lagerbeständen ist eine Meldung, die immer wieder von Analysten aufgegriffen wird. Sie ist jedoch schon Anfang Januar in der Presse gewesen, die Lagerbestände deshalb mindestens 2 Monate alt.
Auserdem beginnt in Indien die Aussaat je nach Landesteil und Agrarprodukt im Januar schon, wie auch in vielen anderen Teilen der Erde, wo hier ja jetzt Hochsommer ist und die Felder gerade bestellt werden oder gedüngt werden.
Ein Bericht vom 05.August 2011 über Indien , warum Indien reduziert.
Vor allem, weil Uralkali soviel liefert, K + S nur ein kleinerer
Teil-Zulieferer ist. Deahalb ist eine Kali-Reduzierung bei K + S nicht zwingend notwendig, wie bei den anderen großen Lieferanten von Indien. Wenn man nicht so viel liefert wie Ural-Kali, kann man auch nicht viel verlieren.

http://in.reuters.com/article/2011/08/05/india-potash-idINL3…

Fri Aug 5, 2011 3:27pm IST

* India signs 2.5 mln tonnes of potash import deals

* Additional 3 mln tonnes contracts seen in 2 weeks

* Key sowing months pass without deals, hitting imports

By Rajendra Jadhav and Kaustubh Kulkarni

MUMBAI, Aug 5 (Reuters) - India, the world's second-biggest potash buyer, is likely to import 17 percent less in 2011/12 after two sowing months passed without deals, the country's top negotiator said, with 3 million tonnes of outstanding needs likely to be agreed in two weeks.

Indian fertiliser companies have already signed up for 2.5 million tonnes of potash for 2011/12, with 1.2 million tonnes from Russia, nearly 700,000 tonnes from Canpotex of Canada and the rest from smaller suppliers.

"India as a whole has contracted 2.5 million tonnes so far and more contracting is going on as principal approval has been received from others (sellers)," P. S. Gahlot, managing director of Indian Potash Ltd, told Reuters in a telephone interview.

Gahlot, who had been negotiating with overseas suppliers for over four months, said the country's total imports "could be 5.5 million tonnes in 2011/12", down from last year's 6.6 million tonnes due to delayed purchases.

"Already, two key months of the sowing season have gone," he said, as the summer sowing season starts in June with the onset of the monsoon rains.

India, second to China among potash importers, uses it to help its huge agriculture sector, which makes it among the world's biggest producers and consumers of grains and sugar.

Potash contracts with Chinese and Indian buyers are closely followed by the market, as international spot market prices typically get pegged at a premium to these contracts.

Canpotex, jointly owned by fertilizer producers Potash Corp , Mosaic Co and Agrium Inc , has agreed deals with India's Tata Chemicals and Coromandel International at an average $500 per tonne.

Russia's Uralkali said on Thursday its Belarusian Potash Co (BPC) agent, jointly owned with Belaruskali, had signed an eight-month contract with Indian Potash for 1.2 million tonnes at $490 per tonne.

Gahlot said suppliers had agreed $470 per tonne for 2011 and $530 per tonne for 2012 shipments, with more than half at the lower price.

"Roughly 60 percent of the quantity will come in 2011 and the remaining quantity in the first quarter of 2012," he said.

Shipments for these contracted quantities should start from the end of August, he said.

India had imported potash at an average price of $370 per tonne last year and buyers had been looking for prices at $470 per tonne -- the same price that suppliers sold to China.

"$530 is a peak. Prices will stabilise at that level. I don't think there is a scope for a further hike. Otherwise consumption will suffer," Gahlot said.

He added that contracts for another three million tonnes should be signed in the next two weeks.

Potash shot into the spotlight in 2008 when high grain prices, tight supplies and strong demand drove prices above $1,000 a tonne from below $150.

Prices retreated after the downturn in 2009 to about $350 a tonne as farmers, hit by the credit crisis and falling grain prices, reined in their use of the fertiliser.

However, the rebound in grain prices over the last year has once again stoked demand for potash and other crop nutrients.

Indian Potash, Tata Chemicals, Indian Farmers' Fertilizers Co-operative or IFFCO, Coromandel International, Nagarjuna Fertilizers and Chemicals , and Zuari Industries together account for almost 90 percent of India's potash imports.

Other than Canpotex and BPC, Silvinit, Arab Potash Co , ICL Israel Chemicals and K+S are suppliers to India. (Editing by Jo Winterbottom)
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/29/ks-canpotex-idUSWE…



FRANKFURT | Tue Nov 29, 2011 10:10am EST

FRANKFURT Nov 29 (Reuters) - German potash miner K+S , which is breaking ground on a new mine in Canada, said it would like to become a member of Canadian potash export cartel Canpotex in the long term, but that such a move was currently ruled out by European antitrust rules.

"This is something we are looking into but at the moment European antitrust law is making it difficult," the group's Chief Executive Norbert Steiner said in an analyst call on Tuesday.

Canpotex is the export cartel for potash extracted in Canada of K+S rivals Potash Corp, Mosaic Co and Agrium Inc.

K+S earlier said it expects to mine 2.86 million tonnes of potash per year from its so-called Legacy project in Canada from 2023, on top of the roughly 7 million tonnes it currently extracts from German soil.

It agreed about a year ago to buy the company that owned the rights to the Legacy deposit for C$434 million ($420.8 million), to gradually replace domestic deposits it expects will be depleted in about four decades
Hier kann man auch sehen, warum Indien momentan nicht soviel importiert. Der Preis in Indien ist stark gestiegen (seht euch aber einmal den Verkaufspreis in Indien an und den Einkaufspreis für Kali auf dem Weltmarkt) Sie möchten an der Preiserhöhung verdienen und in den ersten Monaten erst einmal die Lagerbestände abbauen

) http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-06/india-to-delay-pota…

India to Delay Potash Import Deals on Sufficient Inventory
By Pratik Parija and Prabhudatta Mishra - Jan 6, 2012 1:30 PM
GMT+0100 .LinkedIn Google +1 Print QUEUEQ..

India, the world’s third-largest potash buyer, will delay signing new contracts to purchase the soil nutrient until July as inventories help meet farmers’ demand, according to the nation’s biggest importer.

Domestic potash stockpiles may total 2 million metric tons as of April 1, compared with 500,000 tons a year earlier, P.S. Gahlaut, managing director of Indian Potash Ltd., said in an interview in New Delhi today.

“We don’t need any imports in the first half as we will have sufficient opening stocks,” Gahlaut said. “With the government unlikely to increase subsidy, the use of potash may not see any growth.”

A decline in Indian imports may help cool a 39 percent rally in export prices (1567942) of potash from Canada in the past year and potentially lower earnings of Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc., the largest fertilizer maker, and OAO Uralkali (URKA), Russia’s biggest fertilizer maker. Farmers can skip potash use for a year without hurting yields, Gahlaut said.

India’s potash consumption (CIFAINKT) may drop 30 percent to 4.5 million tons in the year ending March 31 on rising prices, Gahlaut said. Prices in India have surged to 11,300 rupees ($214) per ton from 5,055 rupees in March, according to data from the Fertiliser Association of India .

“If there is further price increase by suppliers and rupee weakens, consumption will continue to fall as it becomes unaffordable,” Gahlaut said.

Potash sales dropped 58 percent to 975,200 tons in the seven months ended Oct. 31 from 2.3 million tons a year earlier, according to the fertiliser association. Sales of di-ammonium phosphate and mono ammonium phosphate declined 21 percent to 6.14 million tons during the seven-month period, the data showed.

To contact the reporters on this story: Pratik Parija in New Delhi at pparija@bloomberg.net; Prabhudatta Mishra in New Delhi at pmishra8@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: James Poole at jpoole4@bloomberg.net
Als technisch versierter Trader kann man da nur die Theorie zitieren.

Der Techniker glaubt, dass alles was die Kurse beeinflussen kann – fundamental, politisch, psychologisch oder sonst wie – durch den Marktpreis aktuell widergespiegelt wird. Deshalb ist nur die Untersuchung der Kursbewegung von Bedeutung, sonst nichts.

Aktuell ist der Markt nicht besonders optimistisch für K+S eingestellt, warum auch immer.

38 Tage Linie und der untere Trendkanal des Aufwärtstrends bieten momentan noch halt. Glaubt man das die 38€ auf Tagesschlusskurs die nächsten Tage halten, ist das Chance/Risiko Verhältsnis garnicht so schlecht momentan. 41 müssten dann wieder auf dem Fahrplan stehen.
Unter 38€ müsste theoretisch der Verkaufsdruck stärker werden.

Vll gibt es hier im Forum ja auch value orientierte Investoren. Mich würde der innere Wert von K+S auch brennend interessieren.
Klasse finde ich immer die Chartmeier.

Wenn gar nichts mehr geht, nehmen die einen Chart, malen ein paar Strichmännchen rein und wollen damit den Kursverlauf erklären.
Die Aktie will keiner haben zu höheren Preisen, dass ist die Wahrheit.
Wenn der Gesamtmarkt sich zur Sommerpause verabschiedet könnt ihr für 33 nachkaufen, egal was die Strichmännchen sagen....
 Durchsuchen


Beitrag zu dieser Diskussion schreiben